Mods on modern loans are tough, many borrowers arent paying PITI so you have the triple trouble of massively underwater homes, bad economy and no amortization on the loans. To try to overcome that with a little financial wizadry just is not going to happen.
I used to do loan modifications in 2007. These were non-distressed modifications that were done for clients in loans that were set to adjust. The bank was buying back seasoned ARMS from the investor, writing up a new RIDER and re-selling it for profit to a new investor.
No appraisal, closing fees, no credit check, nothing. For the borrower it was like a God send. Lower rate than what you could get in the marketplace, with no fees or work. Just sign in 3 places and you are done.
Do you know the response rates I got? Terrible. Only about 50% of the people would even respond. About a 1/3rd would think it was a scam and wouldn't accept it, and I was doing these locally at an actual branch!!
cut the principal balance to no more that what the property is worth
You're talking a minority here. Most people in foreclosure today can't afford a home at 1/2 current value and shouldn't have been allowed to buy to begin with.
There will be "ripples" of foreclosures on reworks after the tidal wave of primary foreclosures.
Wait ... it's more expensive to try to save money than to just leave it as it is? This is insanely stupid. And hear all these idiots are talking about socialism? Folks, this is fascism at its finest; corporations do not want to take a loss no matter what.
Read it all! I think more people are discovering that successful mortgage mods are hard to do.
I think it also illustrates the broader point - it's not enough to just propose government or regulatory solutions to problems. First it's necessary to have government officials, organizations, and regulators that are actually capable of solving the problems (and have the motive to do so).
I think the prominent political agenda today grossly oversimplifies the problems that we face, which seems to be first and foremost that neither private industry or the government are effectively addressing the financial and economic crisis.
And yet we seem to assume that the means to solve these problems are a given and this it's simply a matter of insufficient quantity or momentum that's stopping us.
I know I've worked for companies that had deeply rooted problems with management. I'm sure a lot of people in business have seen similar situations and know how absurd it would be to argue that "we need to double the number of managers we have to solve our problems" when it's manifestly apparent that the real problem is that the management is incompetent or doesn't have the tools to properly manage the system in question (perhaps because those tools don't exist).
It seems to me that political discourse isn't articulate enough to cope with these kinds of problems, so the choice becomes one of two undesirable options "get rid of the management" or "throw more managers at the problem".
I'm becoming more and more pessimistic these days because I see that as a country we have very serious problems, and feel that we're not addressing the problems that exist because we're too busy addressing the problems that we want to believe exist.
corporations do not want to take a loss no matter what. t.k.foster | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 2:20 pm | #
No more or less than people want to enter foreclosure. Both sides should be hung out to dry for their complete stupidity in dragging down the rest of us.
NOTE: Please note that all commentaries on economics, investments and politics are about the behavior of the participant.
David Rosenberg (Merrill Lynch Chief North America economist) has a report out today titled, "Don_t_know_much_about_history." (His focus was on economy and markets and you can guess that things are only worse in other areas). This is a succinct description of the cause behind born-and-bred dopes, in America and elsewhere. What is worse, of course, is the faith in the system displayed by born-and-bred American dopes because Americans ARE BRED with blind faith in the system even when Crooks and evildoers have hijacked the system.
AMERICA HAS AN EVIL GOVT THAT HAS ASSUMED EMERGENCY POWERS OVER THE ECONOMY BY HELPING THE LARGEST CORPORATIONS, ESPECIALLY, FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS AND LEAVING SMALL BUSINESSES AND INDIVIDUAL HOUSEHOLDS TO FEND FOR THEMSELVES. AND THIS IS DEMOCRACY?! ONLY IN THE EYES, OR MINDS, OF MORONS.
The real problem that a born-and-bred American dope faces is his, or her, sheer powerlessness, or political impotence, in being able to do anything about the rule of the Crooks and evildoers. Of course, these dopes always want to take their anger on someone "other" than themselves. Born-and-bred American dopes are a dangerous specie. Democracies degenerate into mob-rule. Poor Socrates!
DEMOCRACIES ALWAYS COME TO AN END ABRUPTLY! But how is a born-and-bred American dope to know. Dont know much about history. America is going down because Americans have degraded (by massive doping) beyond quick repair. History has not been very kind to anyone at the top.
The first major democracy to disintegrate would be in India. The Indian Mind, or soul, is not a democratic mind, or soul. Democracy was imposed by Anglicized Indians educated, or BRED, in England and later turned over to Americanized corporate Crooks, just like in America.
Good point; I keep forgetting that they have a fellow MBA in honest. They can set up a system of mirrors and then when people realize it, have everyone else pay for their stupidity.
In some ways though, you have to admire how easily they can keep most people and rape the innocent. I mean, the second amendment exists for a reason.
For past 8 yrs the Bush admin and Congress have been a colossal failure.
The only colossal successes being
1) looting of Treasury
2) adding $6T to national debt
3) bailing out the Wall St crooks
4) transfer of about $1T of wealth from Americans to upper 1%
David Rosenberg (Merrill Lynch Chief North America economist) has a report out today
Anybody got a link to that? I've found him to be one of the most insightful economists around. I almost doesn't feel right to call him an economist - he seems to have an awareness of the real world.
The problem with principal cram downs is always moral hazard. We'd all like a little lopped off our mortgage balance. How do you stop the stampede?
Yes, every financially well-off homeowner who'd like a slightly lower mortgage payment will rush into BK.
Is your question innocent ignorance of the fact that BK judges used to have the power to cram down principal balance without any explosion in mortgage rates or foreclosures, or malicious pretend ignorance of said fact?
I think you had better spend your time worrying about the moral hazard of banks being allowed to lend money to people who can't repay it, and still being allowed to elbow in front of other creditors.
anook, have you checked in with NASA recently? I think you're receiving broadcasting from a parallel universe and they're interested in that kind of stuff......
Bash Bush all you like, but you can't honestly believe he has had the media in his pocket for eight years. Unlike a certain senator from Illinois...
Nanook | 12.17.08 - 2:28 pm | #
Let me assume office before we blame him...Bush foreign and domestic policies have been a 100% failure no matter who spins it...
"ot-oil's pushing 40...heading south like a gray whale..."
Can I please get a succinct explanation as to how this fits into PPT long term plans? All commodities MUST go up and all fiat currencies MUST go down. It has been pre-ordained by the powers that be.
Beware - Quantitative Easing is Hallucinogenic
Wed, 17 December 2008 By Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends
The Bernanke Fed cant wait to experiment with QE, by printing unlimited amounts of US-dollars out of thin air, and monetizing the US Treasurys debt.
However, Quantitative Easing is a very dangerous hallucinogenic drug - it produces changes in perception, thought, and feeling, ranging from distortions of what is sensed (illusions) to sensing objects where none exist (hallucinations). QE can transmit false perceptions about the health of the economy and the direction of the stock market.
The three-year program was supposed to help 400,000 borrowers avoid foreclosure. But it has attracted only 312 applications since its October launch because it is too expensive and onerous for lenders and borrowers alike...
That is funny. That is rofl funny. That really, really funny.
--
"Anybody got a link to that? I've found him to be one of the most insightful economists around. I almost doesn't feel right to call him an economist - he seems to have an awareness of the real world."
ac,
I read his reports daily and have read more than 1,000 over the past 3 years. Sorry, no link (you may search); I get them via e-mail. Rosenberg is a true exception on Wall Street.
I HAVE QUOTED MORE ROSENBERG ON THIS BLOG THAN ALL THE POSTERS COMBINED! Born-and-bred American dopes like to read and quote propagandists. Tells you how dopes are bred, no?
Current NY governor has a good idea...tax soda pop. Coke and Pepsi are big business and this would likely generate non-trivial revenue for each state that implements it. There are alcohol and tobacco taxes, why not pop? Not that this would be enough to solve a lot, but it would help and would provide marginal disincentive for consumption.
I have argued since the beginning of all these "mod" talks that unless one thing is done, they are all doomed to failure.
Tragically, it is the one thing the banksters, PTB, don't want to do.
REDUCE THE PRINCIPLE.
People aren't going to go for 40, 50-year mortgages.
Reintroducing teaser rates will not help.
Letting people not pay for 12 months will not help.
Esp. in bubbley areas, where housing exceeding half a mil for so-called "starter" homes, the only way to keep these people in their homes is to knock 50% off the balance.
However, I am sure, besides the banksters, the neighbors who bought decades ago don't want to see their perceived equity drop 50%.
This whole mod plan was a non-starter from the start.
Was never going to work on the scale the banksters thought it would.
Additionally, reducing mortgages to 3.5% will not kick start this economy again, either.
Will it help some. Sure, we've got some smart folks on this board ready to refi. It should help them.
Me. Not a chance. Houses still have to come down to the 250-300K range here in South OC to be reasonable.
Why? Because Prop 13 is really 1.5%, not 1.1%. LO told me that is what they use for calculations. HOAs will kill you at anywhere from 100-300/month. Add in insurance, another 100/month. Right there, you have anywhere from $400-$800/month in impounds, which at 3.5% on a mortgage, equals 100K borrowed.
Therefore, even if homes are 350K, with the impounds, it feels like a 450K monthly nut.
Think of it as long futures contract. Cost $10.95. I'm figuring to get 100x that if only to shut down any negativity. Boy, wouldn't that just chafe the hide of the CR regulars, me getting a grand or more of tax money to close off a possible conduit of free speech.
Bernard Madoff, accused of the largest fraud in U.S. history, will be allowed to remain in his $7 million Park Avenue apartment instead of being sent to jail, under terms of an agreement announced today by federal prosecutors.
Client of mine is 6 months behind and no foreclosure filed with Countryfried, AND they won't work with him. He's somebody who might catch up.
lawyerliz
It would appear that there are FAR more foreclosures waiting under the covers than we have been led to believe. I know of three in my little bit of awareness and I am not in the real estate/banking business. These are just sitting there without being claimed. Not yet foreclosed but forlorn. How many more are there outside of the system accounting?
I read his reports daily and have read more than 1,000 over the past 3 years. Sorry, no link (you may search); I get them via e-mail. Rosenberg is a true exception on Wall Street.
I HAVE QUOTED MORE ROSENBERG ON THIS BLOG THAN ALL THE POSTERS COMBINED! Born-and-bred American dopes like to read and quote propagandists. Tells you how dopes are bred, no?
Jas
Jas Jai
Is this a pay for subscription thing or something you just sign up for?
Bernard Madoff, accused of the largest fraud in U.S. history, will be allowed to remain in his $7 million Park Avenue apartment instead of being sent to jail, under terms of an agreement announced today by federal prosecutors.
Oh the humanity!
Speed | 12.17.08 - 2:47 pm | #
Tell me again why anyone pays their bills at all in this country.
Jas, you cannot answer that question.
This is just as bad as when Bilkem got to keep that what, 2 Bil he made. It was there waiting after the jail time.
This country is pointless.
Guy smokes weed and gets 6 months.
Guy steals %50 Bil and gets to stay home.
Where, oh where, have we gone wrong?
When will the common folk grow some and say enough is enough?
I hate my country. We penalize the least of us and glorify the ones who rob, imprison, steal, torture, etc.
AllenM, it would help job creation/retention as well. With people freed from huge mortgage payments they will spend again, or at least have the capability. Jobs would also be created in the mortgage modification market. It would be a huge job to modify all those loans...It's no crazier than what they ARE doing...
Enough already with the modifications: to suggest they will fix the problem is to deny reality (something the government is good at, I realize, especially Sheila Bair, she seems really out of touch with reality).
If houses were bought with cash, it would be simple - the buyer would suffer a loss on sale.
However, since most houses were bought with non-recourse debt, the incentive to stay in the house when the debt exceeds the value of the asset are minimal (there are some reputational reasons - credit scores - but those are weak when facing tens of thousands of loss). Nothing short of reducing the debt will make those people pay.
Then there are the growing contingent of people without the ability to pay. No type of mod will help them either, since without income, there isn't much to pay the debt with.
So you are basically left with a) those with no equity who value their reputation/credit score, and b) those who have a reduced (but not eliminated) ability to pay their debt.
Group A could use a Mod, but might not need one, depending on how they value their reputation. Group B is the only group that current Mods will likely help. I would suspect that population is small, mostly consisting of people in self employed or occasional or commission jobs: small business owners, contract laborers, etc. Those people might have a reduced but not eliminated income. the problem with them is, if you mod them today, their income might drop tomorrow, meaning they need another mod, until eventually they hit a threshold where no mod will help.
It should be no surprise, then, that most Mods fail.
What a bunch of wimps! 4.5% for 30 yr fixed is still only the same cashflow as 6% I.O. When will they really go for it, and offer NINA loans to investors at 107% CLTV and Neg Am payments for five years?
It should work in our area -- We've seen many cash sales recently!
Good luck stuffing the Genie in the bottle. When exactly will the fools understand that you can't legislate asset prices? It's not like they have no history concerning Bubbles of all types, yet we get try try again digging us ever deeper into the abyse.
I'm becoming more and more pessimistic these days because I see that as a country we have very serious problems
The culture is toast. The constant harping of "free market" has eroded the true foundation of efficiency and prosperity, which was a population that sacrificed at the short-end to build towards the long-end, i.e. honesty is a function of altruism.
What we have now is a culture that's learned to lie well, both to itself and others, which is why we are here, now, at this point, in this crisis.
History says it won't get fixed and I believe history.
Most of these "mods" will never save anyone because if you need to cut the monthly by $200/month to save the house, you are already too close to the edge.
Now, if you want to cut the $200/month to free up the money and the numbers work, even if you don't get the "mod", then okay.
It is kinda like all those people screaming that they were BK because gas was costing them $150/month more.
If you are already that close to the edge, I argue it is already too late.
For the frugal, no. Anytime you can save some money, go for it.
But if saving $200-300/month keeps you from starving, you need to downsize.
Sorry for my lack of empathy.
However, common sense should indicate to these people that life is too short to chase some dream conjured by a silk suit bankster on Wall Street.
The gist of the HUD Secretary complaint is that Congress made the requirements of the mods such that few would qualify. Remember that we're talking about a government (i.e. taxpayer) insured mortgage as the intended outcome of the mod. This is one Congressional mandate that I'm glad is both unfunded and failing.
-- A California state board will shut off nearly $4 billion in infrastructure spending to focus on services while the state seeks to close a ballooning deficit, according to media reports Wednesday. The Pooled Money Investment Board, chaired by state Treasurer Bill Lockyer, reportedly voted to halt the flow of money to about 2,000 projects including highways, prisons and schools, so the state can free up money for public safety, health care and other crucial services.
there are FAR more foreclosures waiting under the covers
How many couples do you know who could manage one or the other being unemployed? Our two-income lifestyle is critical to keeping people in their houses. Unemployment is going to double the size of the next foreclosure tsunami.
Nanook, let's look at the facts:
* Bush redistributed $1T from 99% of Americans to the top 1%. Fair or not, that's what he did.
* Bush pressed Congress to authorize $700B in handouts to failed business gambles, claiming a financial holocaust would happen otherwise (it didn't when they voted no the first time).
* Bush authorized $2T-$3T in handouts to businesses without Congress' approval, including a major handout the day after the $700B was finally approved on the second vote.
Bottom line, $4T says there are a million people in top hats and tuxedos who have Bush in their pocket. So if you want to bring this ups, let's remember where we're coming from.
No more than 3 times income has been the norm since Moby Dick was a minnow, but they seem to think they can levitate 8 - 10 times income by some magic. At this point, housing is but one piece of this shit pie we are faced with right before the Holidays.
I should add that ironically most of the $4T went to failed businesses who caused this financial mess, when there are far more businesses that had nothing to do with it and are getting zero.
sm_landlord writes:
"Calif. board shuts off $3.8 bln in infrastructure funds: WSJ"
--crispy&cole
I read that this was due to a bond sale fail. I guess Cali is not willing to pay the going rates for bonds?
sm_landlord | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 3:01 pm | #
Simply put, the state is BK.
Why would I lend you $100 today, despite you telling me you will pay $110 next week? Especially if you can't pay your bills now.
This is simple.
We have surpassed the tipping point of peak credit/debt.
Speed writes:
there are FAR more foreclosures waiting under the covers
How many couples do you know who could manage one or the other being unemployed? Our two-income lifestyle is critical to keeping people in their houses. Unemployment is going to double the size of the next foreclosure tsunami.
Speed | 12.17.08 - 3:02 pm | #
My nextdoor neighbor, who seemed to be comfortably well-off, confessed to me the other day that she wishes she and her husband had rented their house (as my wife and I are doing). She said that they basically have a year before they might have to look for an exit strategy. Her hubby (a swell guy, BTW) is a mobile phone co. exec and always seemed to be on top of things. Very surprising to me.
Speed writes:
there are FAR more foreclosures waiting under the covers
How many couples do you know who could manage one or the other being unemployed? Our two-income lifestyle is critical to keeping people in their houses. Unemployment is going to double the size of the next foreclosure tsunami.
Speed | 12.17.08 - 3:02 pm | #
One of the many reason my wife doesn't work.
Also, we could get by on a 30% pay reduction for me. It would be lean, but survivable.
What is sad is that too many have partied waay tooo long. I was one, but got out in what seems to be just in time.
Of course, if my worst case scenario plays out like I think it will none of it will matter.
The only thing that will is what is in the pantry cubbard.
...many will simply "bow out". The older dissenters will take the ever tightening avenue of the underground, live and travel "under the radar". This year's maximums are $8950, not requiring a federal tax return. Residence in a cash friendly state with no state income tax (ie: Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming) and inherent FedGov reporting. Many of the marginal fall through the cracks, debt-free, existing on the edge, living off the land in varying degrees of comfort, satisfied in the fact they are not assisting in perpetrating the scam of a once great nation.
It seems the only salvation for this country is a complete rebirth. Most though don't contemplate anything so remote, they're perfectly content to go about their lives with their cell in one hand, a steering wheel in the other, and a dozen different points of chaotic interests barraging their brain simultaneously. A perfect way of life "according to [their] Hoyle"
"Maybe the key is having parts of a society rebuilt in this way without having the entire culture collapse..."
No no no, the GODS envy for that us mortals. To be GOD YOU must never fail, you must be almighty!
And that is the very reason the gods created us! For the very one thing they cannot do without being mere mortals...TO FAIL and FAIL AGAIN doing the same thing! Welcome to the end circus!
Some seem to forget members like Dodd who got special a rate through a VIP Program and who said it was because of good credit. F***ing Leach! I say this only to point out that neither Party has one ounce of virtue. They are Legal Organized Crime Syndicates who offer protection for Tribute. These are the facts IMHO.
Defining the term "suckage" (glad I don't trade there):
TSX and TSX Venture Markets will NOT be re-opening for trading today. TSX will be enabled for a pre-open session today between 16:00 and 18:00 ET to allow participants the option of canceling, adding or CFOing open orders.
ova writes:
The three-year program was supposed to help 400,000 borrowers avoid foreclosure. But it has attracted only 312 applications since its October launch because it is too expensive and onerous for lenders and borrowers alike...
That is funny. That is rofl funny. That really, really funny.
And if anyone thinks that health care managed by the govt is going to be any better, then you need to think again.
Reporter: "Can investors be confident that there aren't any other Madoff schemes out there in operation?" Things that would've been preferable to the words that actually exited Cox's mouth: 1. "Yes." 2. "No." 3. "Everyone should flee the market, do panic. Do not make an orderly line for the exits. Do trample over the old ladies in the back row on your way out. And when you leave, set fire to nearby buildings. It's all over, bitches!" What he actually said: "We say that a rising tide lifts all boats. When the economic tide goes out, some of the skeletons that wash up on shore are Ponzi schemes such as this one. So one of the ways that these things are unhappily discovered is the roof falls in because of market conditions. "
Any idea how much it cost to run the Hope Now program? Is it by any chance more than the entire cost of 312 homes? How many of those 312 applications were approved?
If the budget for Hope Now (employees, publicity, printing, website, etc.) exceeded about $60 million, they could have simply cashed out 312 mortgages at about $200k apiece.
Black Star Ranch writes:
"The game will be over soon."
...many will simply "bow out". The older dissenters will take the ever tightening avenue of the underground, live and travel "under the radar". This year's maximums are $8950, not requiring a federal tax return. Residence in a cash friendly state with no state income tax (ie: Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming) and inherent FedGov reporting. Many of the marginal fall through the cracks, debt-free, existing on the edge, living off the land in varying degrees of comfort, satisfied in the fact they are not assisting in perpetrating the scam of a once great nation.
I gotta admit that if the kids were grown up, I might try to convince the wife of this.
In fact, I floated the idea fo buying something very cheap in the Northern SC/TN border area or maybe in S/N Dakota and just paying it down. Then when it is time to go, move there.
Needless to say, she wasn't thrilled.
However, I don't see how much longer the entire system is viable.
I know we have all seen bad news all the time. However, the speed and size of what is coming combined with the outright theft, lying, deception, snake oil, lack of moral/values/ethics, and sheer contempt for one another, let alone the less fortunate is frighteningly worse than I can ever remember when I was younger and my father would save his doom and gloom articles from the New York Daily News or Bergen Record.
"Calif. board shuts off $3.8 bln in infrastructure funds: WSJ"
Sounds like somebody is shifting from spending their money on infrastructure to spending Obama's infrstructure stimulus money. So there is $3.8b that is simply a wash as far as the economy is concerned. If all of the other states do the same thing we won't be doing anything extra for a couple of years.
\tnova writes: The three-year program was supposed to help 400,000 borrowers avoid foreclosure. But it has attracted only 312 applications since its October launch because it is too expensive and onerous for lenders and borrowers alike... Bubbles | 12.17.08 - 3:12 pm | #
Were they only offering a free toaster for the first 300 people who signed up?
Jas Jain writes:
NOTE: Please note that all commentaries on economics, investments and politics are about the behavior of the participant.
#
That is a lie, because this:
Jas Jain writes:
What is worse, of course, is the faith in the system displayed by born-and-bred American dopes because Americans ARE BRED with blind faith in the system even when Crooks and evildoers have hijacked the system.
Is your usual all-inclusive racist troll. Why discredit your valuable contributions.
The last thing this country needs is more cheats and liars . . . like you.
Gary
Check out D.C. I think you will find this nation run by those you abhore. Doing exactly what you think should not be done. Then go to Sacramento or any state gov't. Same thing. Then go to your bank. Same thing. Then look at your tax forms. Fudge 'em once, twice, just a little bit didja? It's the culture of upright monkeys.
This is only the beginning. Gov't will inject increasing amounts of money into the zombie banks. They will not lend, but hoard the capital. What is the incentive? The only way they will lend will be through their usurious subsidiaries. Successive attempts to spurt the housing market with lower rates will lock the Fed into keeping rates at zero. Interest rates on savings accounts will trend steadily downwards, eventually reaching an effective zero. People will pull money out of banks, and keep cash in their wardrobes. More and more money gets taken out of the system, hiding in the wardrobes. Scared, we all hoard cash. Why not? The banks pay us nothing with their savings accounts. All of this is deflationary. As far as I can tell, there is no escape from a true deflationary spiral. ZIRP perversely reinforces the spiral through the liquidity trap. Bernanke has ensured that this country will stagnate for decades to come.
"There were two philosophies on the Hill: Let's throw the barn door open and help as many people as we can regardless of the reasons. Or we need to make them pay because they should have known what they were doing," Montgomery said. "They found some middle philosophical ground, but that philosophical middle ground made [the program] unworkable."
It's called class warfare. Never more out in the open than in times like these. Recall the unionization wars of the 1930's (my Father was an organizer for the railroad (Seaboard) unions).
Currency devaluation appears then as perhaps the only way to raise the nominal price level, while serving as a stealth cramdown to dollar denominated debt?
Break up the big banks, turn every single loan over to a local bank and let them work it out. Give all the Fed funds to local banks and credit unions. Let the big dinosaurs die.
Jas Jain writes:
The first major democracy to disintegrate would be in India. The Indian Mind, or soul, is not a democratic mind, or soul.
#
The "Indian Mind" was free of this...
Jas Jain writes:
Of course, these dopes always want to take their anger on someone "other" than themselves.
Jas Jain writes:
Democracy was imposed by Anglicized Indians educated, or BRED, in England and later turned over to Americanized corporate Crooks, just like in America.
#
...until their souls were corrupted by "the other"...
You discredit your otherwise valuable message with this racist trolling.
How many couples do you know who could manage one or the other being unemployed? Our two-income lifestyle is critical to keeping people in their houses. Unemployment is going to double the size of the next foreclosure tsunami.
Speed | 12.17.08 - 3:02 pm |
waves hand We could essentially live as we do right now if my job ended today (though my job isn't going anywhere unless my non-bubbled but Oil dependent state' govt were to go BK). If DH was laid off, we'd have to scrimp, but we could make the house payments, keep the lights on, and put food on the table. We save over 30% of our take home consistently, and could get that over 50% if we cut out luxuries. Those were conscious decisions about lifestyle that we made once we got to a point in our lives (late 20s) where we consistently had more than the bare minimum income.
And re: black star ranch/OCDan, We don't have the skills or the inclination to go off to the woods to do the Mother Earth News guns 'n gold off-grid thing, but we do live as simple and sustainable a life as possible here in the world, where our talents can do more good for others. While we protect ourselves and our interests, Life isn't just about us and our self-gratification--we're supposed to use what we have to help others, not just pile up gadgets or McMansions or even bank balances. Lately I've started wondering if we'd be in this pickle if more people had remembered and lived that basic truth...
...but that just may be our hippie boomer parents talking.
Currency devaluation appears then as perhaps the only way to raise the nominal price level, while serving as a stealth cramdown to dollar denominated debt? \t citizen energyecon | \t \t \tHomepage | \t12.17.08 - 3:24 pm | # Is it possible? Remember, monetary policy doesn't happen in a vaccuum like Bernanke's 2002 speech (this was mentioned earlier to me) assumes it would. I read that speech, and it seemed to me an unrealistic exercise in theoretical policy. Political constraints are the reality of real-world monetary and fiscal policy. Can we devalue our currency to a level makes debt less significant, without having political consequences? I doubt it, but am open to arguments to the contrary.
there was a post from someone that linked a milton freidman paper that said high inflation was a way out of a debt-induced depression scenario because it devalued debt, thus it reduced the problem causing the depression. i'm no economist, what are the thoughts from the austrians?
Don't worry, there will be plenty of shit pie left for Spring break and summer vacation!
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 3:10 pm | #
i dont know , my kids asked which beach we will go to this summer and i told them, absolutly depended on the deals ...we may be in mexico on the cheap....vs the redneck riveria...
I stopped filing, too. Right now the Feds owe me something like $15K but frankly, I've just been too overwhelmed by how fucked up work is and my divorce to deal with it.
You're a robot, Gary.
Not particularly useful skill for survival, although apparently neither is honesty or hard work.
How can modifications not work? Either the borrower has no income to make the payments or the modification is not large enough. Why is that so hard to understand?
And re: black star ranch/OCDan, We don't have the skills or the inclination to go off to the woods to do the Mother Earth News guns 'n gold off-grid thing, but we do live as simple and sustainable a life as possible here in the world, where our talents can do more good for others. While we protect ourselves and our interests, Life isn't just about us and our self-gratification--we're supposed to use what we have to help others, not just pile up gadgets or McMansions or even bank balances. Lately I've started wondering if we'd be in this pickle if more people had remembered and lived that basic truth...
...but that just may be our hippie boomer parents talking.
Mostly Lurker | 12.17.08 - 3:29 pm | #
No argument from this corner with your lifestyle.
You obviously have your heads screwed on right.
As Ghandi said the world can provide for everyone, not just everyone's greed.
Or, if you like, and as you have been doing by your post:
Live simply, so others may simply live.
You make a great comment about piling up McMansions.
For me, it has always been the retire at 40 syndrome.
Not for me, persay, as I am reconciled to working until the Good Lord takes me.
However, I always wondered if we all retire at 40 and sip Martinis poolside in the Caymen's, who is going to do the work of this country?
A bank holiday would end up being all the bankers getting in a room together and scratching each others back. The banks should declare bankruptcy and liquidate. Private investors should get a chance at the assets too.
Could live in one salary, and may have to. It'd be tight, but doable. House paid for, car bought with cash. If one of us goes, the other still carries the health insurance.
My parents never quite got past the Great Depression, and I inherited their very basic approach to lifestyle.
"you strike me as an anti-government Montana militia style tax-dodging nutter."
Fuck the Montana...after they have "shot their nuke loads"..they will become number one MIRV targets. Bunch of weenies relying on M16s and other high-tech gears that really works when you have normal society to rely on.
But I'd rely more on any Asian village over those idiots, after all they have been living poorly for all of their lifes!
oh dear fellow commentariat, who said anything about doing it without political consequences? I just think we will go down this road, with all the attendant consequences - and we will be most fortunate indeed if it is limited to a trade war.
Hi I am new here and learning.... Why are all mortgages "upside down".. where you pay interest first and gain little equity... wouldnt it be better for homeowners (not the banks) to have people get more equity in the beginning? Would this help solve some problems?
I know that in the beginning the loan is higher so more interest accrues... but is there any way around this (besides just overpaying each month?)
Could the gov't require lenders to use different amoritzaion tables?
The government's spending commitments exploded by 25 percent in 2008, putting taxpayers more than $1 trillion in the hole even before the astronomical costs of the economic bailout were taken into account, according to an annual report released Monday by the White House.
A joint report by the White House budget office and Treasury Department said that much of the increase in obligations came from an unexpected jump in veterans benefits liabilities, while revenues remained mostly flat because of the recession that began a year ago.
Jim Nussle, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, called the report "sobering."
The report showed that U.S. debts and liabilities are close to passing the value of the U.S. population's net worth, said Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonprofit organization devoted to promoting fiscal responsibility.
"The value of this report is that it shows the long-term cost of expensive commitments we are making today," said Brian Riedl, a budget analyst for the Heritage Foundation.
"The government makes a lot of commitments that cost a little in the short run but a lot in the long run, and this document is one of the only government documents that show the long-term cost of the long-term commitments," Mr. Riedl said. "What it shows is that future trends are completely unsustainable because the government has promised more benefits than the taxpayers can pay for."
What part of guaranteeing/spending up to $8 trillion on bailouts is not sustainable? I don't get it. (sarcasm off).
PS - I can't wait to see the final tally a year from now. The govt has low-balled every stat out of DC, so $1T is probably the absolute minimum we will be over budget.
I don't have one dime in this market, yet its logic is maddening.
Dow 9,000 despite the prospect of a Detroit bankruptcy (dude, where's my bailout?); unaninmously crummy macro and micro-metrics; and a zero-interest rate policy that spells liquidity trap according to every economics textbook and college professor I paid attention to.
Feel free to fill in the data points I've omitted; or better yet, offer a better point of view that might help me sleep at night. If any of you would remind me that Miss Stock Market is a discounting mechanism, fine, but what decade?
Gary....
2008 Federal tax law says returns are not required for incomes less than $8950 per yr. - I don't make up the rules, I just try to abide by them....FYI, I am NOT a liar nor a cheat, but I might suggest you use a little more care when labeling people in regards to facts of a particular point.
oh dear fellow commentariat, who said anything about doing it without political consequences? I just think we will go down this road, with all the attendant consequences - and we will be most fortunate indeed if it is limited to a trade war. \t citizen energyecon | \t \t \tHomepage | \t12.17.08 - 3:38 pm | # I see! I guess this kind of possibility is what makes the future so interesting. Me, I never imagine governments going down such destabilizing policy paths. You're right though, America is quite capable of doing such things. Interesting!
OT: California board votes to halt infrastructure funds
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A California state board will shut off nearly $4 billion in infrastructure spending to focus on services while the state seeks to close a ballooning deficit, according to media reports Wednesday. The Pooled Money Investment Board, chaired by state Treasurer Bill Lockyer, reportedly voted to halt the flow of money to about 2,000 projects including highways, prisons and schools, so the state can free up money for public safety, health care and other crucial services.
"If any of you would remind me that Miss Stock Market is a discounting mechanism"
If someone told you a year ago we would be at spx 915 but neglected to mention that we had hit 780 (or whatever it was) earlier, your perspective would be different. Though I do share your frustrations and know exactly what you mean.
Wait ... it's more expensive to try to save money than to just leave it as it is? This is insanely stupid. And hear all these idiots are talking about socialism? Folks, this is fascism at its finest; corporations do not want to take a loss no matter what.
The mods are failing because they are voluntary on the part of the lender but the lenders cannot accept them. Really can't. The losses exceed the lender's capital so every mod pushes them closer to bankruptcy - even if the mod results in them getting more money.
The writedowns will have to be forced onto the lenders - by foreclosure, forced mods, or inflation - and the lenders generally driven into bankruptcy before this is fixed. Right now the government is trying to avoid putting the banks and pensions into BK, which requires not recognizing the losses, which prohibits meaningful mods. We have to wait until the government is willing to face reality, or until virtually every mortgage issued after 2002 has been foreclosed on.
Anybody else feeling like this is later September all over again, with the Fed dropping a bomb to pump markets, but the market not feeling remotely stable? I would not be shocked if we had a repeat of the drop in October very soon.
I am reconciled to working until the Good Lord takes me
I started my divorce in Dec, 2005 and since then I've met something close to 400 women. I learned that most women really are driven by 'security'. Pre-marriage I never projected enough 'security' via clothes and possessions so I never did well with women.
In retrospect I realize that the only reason I attracted my wife is that I had finally graduated college in a lucrative field.
Now that I understand that, my desire to project 'security' is much lower, even though my ability is much higher.
The sex just wasn't that good. When the sex was good, it was great and it wasn't motivated by 'security' because those type of women are just crazy with lush anyway.
So if I erase 'status' and 'women' from my calculations, I actually don't need that much money.
I can't believe I didn't figure this out until I was almost fifty.
I actually like the idea Black Star advocates. I just don't think I could live below the cut-off for paying taxes. Rather, I could but I do not want to.
The writedowns will have to be forced onto the lenders - by foreclosure, forced mods, or inflation - and the lenders generally driven into bankruptcy before this is fixed.
~~~~~
Bank Holiday ~ Swedish Plan ... then they can deal with the CDS and derivatives fiasco as well ...
Either Ken is being funny or someone is monkeying with the CR Companion code. RedVette | 12.17.08 - 3:53 pm | # When trying to express oneself, it's frankly quite absurd, To leaf through lengthy lexicons to find the perfect word. A little spontaniaty keeps conversation keen, You need to find a way to say, precisely what you mean...
Unfortunately, to me it seems like a logical extension of the behavior to date...though it may also come about through external events. \t citizen energyecon | \t \t \tHomepage | \t12.17.08 - 3:49 pm | # A logical extension, you think? This is completely out of the scope of the Japanese deflationary model that I've gotten used to referncing, but you're very right in that different countries will have different ways of reacting, and the US might have a much greater tolerance for destabilizing policies than Japan did. I wonder why I was locked into that way of thinking; probably because of my experience bias. BTW, what "external events" are you thinking of?
"Is this a pay for subscription thing or something you just sign up for?
I'd fork over $$$ for a sub if necessary."
ac | 12.17.08 - 2:54 pm
Email him
david_rosenberg AT ml.com
and ask ... couldn't hurt.
Doubt if you need to offer money.
Or do like me, volunteer at a charity or church to be Treasurer, then open up an account at Mother Merrill to keep the reserves' principal preserved. Your broker should be able to set you up to receive the emails that very day.
It'd be nice seeing what you quote from the emails, 'stead of what Jas thinks important.
I remember, when younger, hearing tales of men in the 40s who made the equivalent of 300K today yet only kept 60-70K after the taxes, ex-wife(s), kids...
it seemed like a bad joke that couldn't possibly be true
Once upon a time, people had to pay 20% down for a house, so they all had a reasonable amount of equity early on in the mortgage. (we followed this antiquated tradition when we bought earlier this year, but if you haven't guessed from my earlier posts, we're countercultural throwbacks). You also couldn't buy a house that cost more than 3x your hh annual income, give or take. However, at some point in the early 2000s these sensible rules were decreed to be antiquated and overly stringent, squashing a potential explosion of home ownership. Thus were born no-down payment NINJA Option-arm subprime Jumbo Loans. Housing duly bubbled, then imploded. (Hoocoodanode?)
As to what we do now that we've let pandora out of the box...I can't see any benefit to the lender for changing the amortization tables, and they (or the people who own the loans snow) are de facto calling the shots in the bailout via their hired hands in the treasury/fed.
Now that USD rates are lower than Yen rates, how would the Japanese weaken the yen? If they were to aggressively sell the yen, who would buy it? Alternatively, if they were to start buying USD, could they buy enough to make a difference in the price?
What options do the Japanese have in weakening the Yen?
"there was a post from someone that linked a milton freidman paper that said high inflation was a way out of a debt-induced depression scenario..."
Friedman's ideas aren't looking too good these days.
Much of this is wrapped up in something called "leadership." Unfortunately, Bernanke doesn't have the stature of Volcker.
The problem is also wrapped in expectations. Sometimes the threat of doing something--inflating, in this case--can be just as credible as actually printing money.
If Volcker was the current Fed chairman and said something like, "We're going hook up our presses directly to Three Mile Island and print until bond traders' noses bleed," he'd be taken seriously. The credit markets would thaw a lot faster than they are now.
Even if Bernanke de facto inflates, there's no guarantee that the markets will take him seriously. It isn't a given that prices and rates will automatically rise if the economy is inflated.
As Krugman has pointed out, you have to have a credible policy of inflation. For a Volcker, that would be a walk in the park, for Bernanke it isn't.
So, at the end of the day, we learn that all of the math and science comes down to personalities and beliefs. The money is only as good as the promise.
You also couldn't buy a house that cost more than 3x your hh annual income, give or take. However, at some point in the early 2000s these sensible rules were decreed to be antiquated and overly stringent, squashing a potential explosion of home ownership. Thus were born no-down payment NINJA Option-arm subprime Jumbo Loans. Housing duly bubbled, then imploded. (Hoocoodanode?)
Houses only ended up being 3X income because of the loose credit in the first place. So, even industrious responsible folks who played by the rules and tried to buy within their budgets, ended up in much smaller houses than they would have in the past.
Every homeowner is getting hurt in some way by this mess. Even the "throwbacks". That's the tragedy of this situation. A few bad apples really did spoil the whole barrel.
Young men 16 to 22 - we get the model with the drama. Always throwing something, breaking, costing money...
Plus we feel the need to customize..
Very high maintenance but who cares...
Young 22 to 28 - Sports or something that moves quickly and looks cool. Less maintenance.
Not so young 29 to 39 Something kinda sporty, yet no too sporty. Solid - low to no maintenance
40 to 50 yrs old You want her her to like money, handle well, a little euro flair
50 to 55 - sports car! high maintenance and flash
55 plus start thinking about that sunset purchase...
I know this is a dying thread, but methinks you boys are looking in the wrong places, and are chasing girls instead of women. I'm cheaper than my husband, and as a mathemetician/software developer, he's pretty darned tight. Of course I'm not a size DD blonde either, so...shrug
"I can't believe I didn't figure this out until I was almost fifty.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 3:51 pm | # "
Yeah, well... that's maybe the earliest point you can think clearly. Experience. Hormones. You know.
The flip side is older widowers who rush right out and get another wife after the first one dies. Usually, in my experience, mainly for the free housekeeping/household management. Waving a prenup in front of them like a flag.
Check out this chart from this Oppenheimer income fund. Just imagine the poor suckers that were searching for tad more yield. Good grief. Wall street has literally ruined millions of lives.
sdtfs writes:
Rob Dawg- did you notice Ken Cooper has a rating especially for you?
I think Ken is having a little fun. Gary & I joked about special tags yesterday. Looks like Ken is in on the joke. If only everyone could tell the difference twixt having fun and stroking one's ego.
Speaking of ego, did everyone notice the California debt offering failure and suspension of capital projects? I think it was Broward 3 weeks ago who discussed that possibility with me. Oh and the state 18mo deficit is now $41.8 billion.
Do you believe? \t mp | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 4:03 pm | # Right on mp. At the end, our complex economic systems come down to something like a cult of personality. Then again, anyone who resorts to the perversity of ZIRP is bound to lose credibility. Wonder if Volcker could've pulled it off.
--
Born-and-bred American dopes confuse the criticism of modern democracy, originating in England and later perfected in America, as racist. Anglo-American domination of the world is a fact and when the world goes into chaos America would have lot to answer for.
Anglo-American democracy = Domination of Money, you dopes, and currently it IS domination of Crooks and Evildoers. Denial will not cure Americas ills.
It is not my fault that you were doped all your life.
"Every homeowner is getting hurt in some way by this mess."
true, but I am kind of happy that if my personal circumstances encourage me to buy in the near future, i'll be able to do it with a 4% 15-year fixed. that's kind of cool. i'd rather have the higher rate and not live through a worse depression than the 30s, but I try to keep it positive.
What is the point of living without status and women?
That's the right question, Sebastion. I thought the same thing for thirty years.
I don't live without women but I no longer seek women based on "the official rules" because I finally figured out that it's a lot of work for me and I get sucky sex out of it.
Likewise, why would I seek status?
It's a function of ego and ultimately it's a symptom of insecurity if you're constantly comparing yourself to Joe Schmoe.
It's really just a lot of work (and taxes) to perpetuate... more work and taxes.
I have a very attractive wife who saved $$$$ as a single woman after grad school. I had no idea until after we were engaged. Despite feeling that I'm sincere, loyal, try hard, etc., I really did luck out.
It was pretty hard to find women in their 20s who saved a lot of money in 2003. I wonder if more women who are now in college will avoid debt and wild spending.
This should serve as a lesson to the staffers who placed the various "protections" into the program, making it completely ineffective. Government is quite predictable.
Folks, Any idea what the DOW dropped 90+ point int the final 10 minutes? \t xxxxx | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 4:14 pm | # It was probably that rain dance that I did. WTF, SRS still down???
"Every homeowner is getting hurt in some way by this mess. Even the "throwbacks". That's the tragedy of this situation. A few bad apples really did spoil the whole barrel."
Too True.
Oh yeah, and OCDan, thanks for the compliment WAY upthread. early experiences plus spending my early 20s working in the telecom bubble meant my attitude was already adjusted by the time I recovered from the crash and had disposable income again. I did the live rich thing on a small level for a couple years right out of college, didn't do much for me. Then I read Your Money or Your Life shortly after the 2001 crash, and while I never quite bought into the "you can live off long bond interest!" investment advice, I got a needed attitude adjustment re: simple living.
and Nova, glad to hear you've developed better taste/luck in ladies of late. Hope I didn't come off as too much of a militant b*tch back there...
because banks are borrowing at 0.25% and lending plastic credit at 25% APRs. some BnBDs think there might be a viable business model in there somewhere.
"Guy in the office was at the local Honda dealer looking for a used car for his daughter...said the place was packed."
If you have a choice, shop for cars the last few days of the year. I've gotten great deals even in good years. There's always somebody who really needs to make a goal or dump some inventory.
Anybody else feeling like this is later September all over again, with the Fed dropping a bomb to pump markets, but the market not feeling remotely stable? I would not be shocked if we had a repeat of the drop in October very soon.
You may recall that the last major drop in the market occurred in the first week of October. All through that week, there was unrelenting selling. The week was the first of the 4th quarter.
It has been speculated that the selling occurred due to large requests for redemptions from hedge funds during the 3rd quarter.
It is likely that similar requests have been made during the current quarter, in which case the beginning of the next quarter, that is January 2nd onwards is likely to see similar selling pressure.
The Fed likely knew what was coming in October and now in January, motivating it to act in September and now again this month to preemptively mitigate the unfolding disaster.
Here is my story about housing. I am disabled, ironically from trying to "help/save" my beloved America. Nonetheless, me and my wife make about 56k a yr. The max. am willing to spent for a house is about 130,000. When the housing boom took off, I declined to partake. Rented, at $475 a month, and saved money. With falling prices we are looking to buy within 3 yrs. The max. am willing to pay/afford will remain at 130k.
I could never live in CA, NYC,...etc. However there are alot of places I can go to live and enjoy life. 56k is slightly about the median avg. Where will the money come from to relight the housing bubble?
Broward Horne wrote: The culture is toast. The constant harping of "free market" has eroded the true foundation of efficiency and prosperity, which was a population that sacrificed at the short-end to build towards the long-end, i.e. honesty is a function of altruism.
What we have now is a culture that's learned to lie well, both to itself and others, which is why we are here, now, at this point, in this crisis.
Welcome to the consequences and the children of the summer of love and self discovery (aka 1968), "if it feels good do it" no consequences no restriction from those "old fashioned values". This was followed by the 70s open marriage and free love...gotta love that word FREE.
a. reduce the principal to what the home is currently worth;
b. The lender gets a certificate for 80% of the appreciation on the sale of the property. If the borrower sells and buys a another home the appreciation lien gets carried forward.
The problem is given all the securitization there is no way to re-structure. Congress should past a law that will allow these cram downs (either via eminent domain or creating Chapter XX of the bankruptcy court that will allow an arbitration panel to do it).
At 0 percent interest will it be impossible for anyone to retire? Look at calpers it was counting on returns of 8% to finance future retirees. With the ten year at 2% how much more do they need to finance their retirement structure? (Not saying it was all in the ten year to begin with). If California is mandated to make up the difference how where does it get the difference? Look at Detroit can those companies finance their pensions? Take that example for yourself how much more money do you need to save to finance your retirement at this rate of return?
Many Japanese undertook the carry trade by borrowing Yen. How can we ordinary American Joes do a carry trade with the U.S. dollar? Just looking to make some spare change; every little bit helps. Thanks, in advance, for any tips.
Ah, but it has helped delay price discovery in the housing market, thus keeping house unaffordable and crooked banks in business, so it must be a success!
Cops and firefighter pensions may be the last plan we want to reduce. However, if my reasoning is correct our taxes need to go up significantly. Frying pan meet fire.
This comment thread makes me weep. It reads worse than any overnight thread of six months ago. I couldn't believe y'all were sober and yet, for the most part, it took place during working hours.
You flung poo at each other all through this thread. How will we ever get through this troubled period if this is how we act, in public, at the very beginning of this crisis.
"Failure" is such an ugly word. I prefer "success challenged".
At least they tried their best.. nevermind the unintended consequences.
I perfer....FUBAR.
I think more people are discovering that successful mortgage mods are hard to do.
Hoocouldanode
Mods on modern loans are tough, many borrowers arent paying PITI so you have the triple trouble of massively underwater homes, bad economy and no amortization on the loans. To try to overcome that with a little financial wizadry just is not going to happen.
The only thing that will work--and only with some people--is to cut the principal balance to no more that what the property is worth.
The lenders in the long run can't get any more than that with foreclosure anyway.
Client of mine is 6 months behind and no foreclosure filed with Countryfried, AND they won't work with him. He's somebody who might catch up.
I don't if Congress is to blame
where's that slacker BD?
Alomost worked.
The problem with principal cram downs is always moral hazard. We'd all like a little lopped off our mortgage balance. How do you stop the stampede?
I used to do loan modifications in 2007. These were non-distressed modifications that were done for clients in loans that were set to adjust. The bank was buying back seasoned ARMS from the investor, writing up a new RIDER and re-selling it for profit to a new investor.
No appraisal, closing fees, no credit check, nothing. For the borrower it was like a God send. Lower rate than what you could get in the marketplace, with no fees or work. Just sign in 3 places and you are done.
Do you know the response rates I got? Terrible. Only about 50% of the people would even respond. About a 1/3rd would think it was a scam and wouldn't accept it, and I was doing these locally at an actual branch!!
cut the principal balance to no more that what the property is worth
You're talking a minority here. Most people in foreclosure today can't afford a home at 1/2 current value and shouldn't have been allowed to buy to begin with.
There will be "ripples" of foreclosures on reworks after the tidal wave of primary foreclosures.
Wow, just 312 applications. That works out to 6 applications per state! Not going to saving the housing market at that rate.
In a few months we wont need mods b/c the new Administration will nationalise.....
Wait ... it's more expensive to try to save money than to just leave it as it is? This is insanely stupid. And hear all these idiots are talking about socialism? Folks, this is fascism at its finest; corporations do not want to take a loss no matter what.
OMG
Paulson: Major financial institutions stabilized...
Expired
that one carries significant weight.
I'm restarting the matrix...as it's only a 4 digit one, and we quickly ran thru 9999
Mr paulson....#1
Folks, this is fascism at its finest; corporations do not want to take a loss no matter what.
t.k.foster | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 2:20 pm | #
Why should they until somebody makes them?
Read it all! I think more people are discovering that successful mortgage mods are hard to do.
I think it also illustrates the broader point - it's not enough to just propose government or regulatory solutions to problems. First it's necessary to have government officials, organizations, and regulators that are actually capable of solving the problems (and have the motive to do so).
I think the prominent political agenda today grossly oversimplifies the problems that we face, which seems to be first and foremost that neither private industry or the government are effectively addressing the financial and economic crisis.
And yet we seem to assume that the means to solve these problems are a given and this it's simply a matter of insufficient quantity or momentum that's stopping us.
I know I've worked for companies that had deeply rooted problems with management. I'm sure a lot of people in business have seen similar situations and know how absurd it would be to argue that "we need to double the number of managers we have to solve our problems" when it's manifestly apparent that the real problem is that the management is incompetent or doesn't have the tools to properly manage the system in question (perhaps because those tools don't exist).
It seems to me that political discourse isn't articulate enough to cope with these kinds of problems, so the choice becomes one of two undesirable options "get rid of the management" or "throw more managers at the problem".
I'm becoming more and more pessimistic these days because I see that as a country we have very serious problems, and feel that we're not addressing the problems that exist because we're too busy addressing the problems that we want to believe exist.
Just put up a banner that says "Mission Accomplished" and the media will belive it is another Bush success
corporations do not want to take a loss no matter what.
t.k.foster | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 2:20 pm | #
No more or less than people want to enter foreclosure. Both sides should be hung out to dry for their complete stupidity in dragging down the rest of us.
--
The worst of democratic politics, no?
--
Dont Know Much About History
NOTE: Please note that all commentaries on economics, investments and politics are about the behavior of the participant.
David Rosenberg (Merrill Lynch Chief North America economist) has a report out today titled, "Don_t_know_much_about_history." (His focus was on economy and markets and you can guess that things are only worse in other areas). This is a succinct description of the cause behind born-and-bred dopes, in America and elsewhere. What is worse, of course, is the faith in the system displayed by born-and-bred American dopes because Americans ARE BRED with blind faith in the system even when Crooks and evildoers have hijacked the system.
AMERICA HAS AN EVIL GOVT THAT HAS ASSUMED EMERGENCY POWERS OVER THE ECONOMY BY HELPING THE LARGEST CORPORATIONS, ESPECIALLY, FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS AND LEAVING SMALL BUSINESSES AND INDIVIDUAL HOUSEHOLDS TO FEND FOR THEMSELVES. AND THIS IS DEMOCRACY?! ONLY IN THE EYES, OR MINDS, OF MORONS.
The real problem that a born-and-bred American dope faces is his, or her, sheer powerlessness, or political impotence, in being able to do anything about the rule of the Crooks and evildoers. Of course, these dopes always want to take their anger on someone "other" than themselves. Born-and-bred American dopes are a dangerous specie. Democracies degenerate into mob-rule. Poor Socrates!
DEMOCRACIES ALWAYS COME TO AN END ABRUPTLY! But how is a born-and-bred American dope to know. Dont know much about history. America is going down because Americans have degraded (by massive doping) beyond quick repair. History has not been very kind to anyone at the top.
The first major democracy to disintegrate would be in India. The Indian Mind, or soul, is not a democratic mind, or soul. Democracy was imposed by Anglicized Indians educated, or BRED, in England and later turned over to Americanized corporate Crooks, just like in America.
Jas
Didn't they call it HOPE? I guess all hope is gone....
Why should they until somebody makes them?
dryfly | 12.17.08 - 2:21 pm | #
Good point; I keep forgetting that they have a fellow MBA in honest. They can set up a system of mirrors and then when people realize it, have everyone else pay for their stupidity.
In some ways though, you have to admire how easily they can keep most people and rape the innocent. I mean, the second amendment exists for a reason.
Christopher Cox should do time if Madoff does time......
@crispy&cole | \t \t \tHomepage | \t12.17.08 - 2:22 pm
LOL. Where's my aircraft carrier?
It worked perfectly. It was a toothless program designed to kill all the puts the day before option expiration.
Christopher Cox should do time if Madoff does time......
girlbear | 12.17.08 - 2:25 pm | #
Be a helluva fight over the top bunk.
For past 8 yrs the Bush admin and Congress have been a colossal failure.
The only colossal successes being
1) looting of Treasury
2) adding $6T to national debt
3) bailing out the Wall St crooks
4) transfer of about $1T of wealth from Americans to upper 1%
OT: Be still my itchy SKF trigger finger.
"Just put up a banner that says "Mission Accomplished" and the media will belive it is another Bush success."
Bash Bush all you like, but you can't honestly believe he has had the media in his pocket for eight years. Unlike a certain senator from Illinois...
What am I bid for: NoHopeNow.org? Yes, I own it.
David Rosenberg (Merrill Lynch Chief North America economist) has a report out today
Anybody got a link to that? I've found him to be one of the most insightful economists around. I almost doesn't feel right to call him an economist - he seems to have an awareness of the real world.
ot-oil's pushing 40...heading south like a gray whale...
If you save one soul, your work has been done.
Now do I get a pony for my xmas bonus?
cd --
Reference? I see Feb CL futures at $44.50 or so...
Get the hell outta here, really? Hoocoodonode?
The problem with principal cram downs is always moral hazard. We'd all like a little lopped off our mortgage balance. How do you stop the stampede?
Yes, every financially well-off homeowner who'd like a slightly lower mortgage payment will rush into BK.
Is your question innocent ignorance of the fact that BK judges used to have the power to cram down principal balance without any explosion in mortgage rates or foreclosures, or malicious pretend ignorance of said fact?
I think you had better spend your time worrying about the moral hazard of banks being allowed to lend money to people who can't repay it, and still being allowed to elbow in front of other creditors.
I blame myself for not being able to choke down more BRAWNDO
What the heck is a Credit vertigo?
Report from Minneapolis Fed finds 'credit vertigo'
Minneapolis Fed finds 'credit vertigo' holding down lending - MarketWatch
comment music
YouTube - U2 - Vertigo: Video
The only answer is bankruptcy cramdowns ...
cd - PLEASE! No negative talk about oil prices, the bulls get mad.
anook, have you checked in with NASA recently? I think you're receiving broadcasting from a parallel universe and they're interested in that kind of stuff......
For past 8 yrs the Bush admin and Congress have been a colossal failure.
The only colossal successes being
The man can evade shoes.
Bush went from being my least favorite president of all time to my favorite in one single side step.
Nanook is a master at baiting.
With unemployment skyrocketing there will even more distressed housing coming on line ...
Now they have got to try to save jobs ...
Bash Bush all you like, but you can't honestly believe he has had the media in his pocket for eight years. Unlike a certain senator from Illinois...
Nanook | 12.17.08 - 2:28 pm | #
Let me assume office before we blame him...Bush foreign and domestic policies have been a 100% failure no matter who spins it...
*him
"ot-oil's pushing 40...heading south like a gray whale..."
Can I please get a succinct explanation as to how this fits into PPT long term plans? All commodities MUST go up and all fiat currencies MUST go down. It has been pre-ordained by the powers that be.
emo
Crude Oil Chart
$41.45 bbl
Hey, Nanook.
Stop trolling, and go eat a dick !
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 2:30 pm | #
Too funny!
Christopher Cox should do time if Madoff does time......
girlbear | 12.17.08 - 2:25 pm | #
Be a helluva fight over the top bunk.
dryfly | 12.17.08 - 2:26 pm | #
I dunno, I think Cox can take him.
Nemo-re live chart, put mouse in chart and you will get options. you can adjust to 1, 10, 1 hr, 1 day settings..
lks like 40.22 as of right now
Looks like the TSX can't handle the new 0% T-bill yields
It's still down.
Toronto Stock Exchange Trading Is Halted on Glitch (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Expired? .v=6
BottomCallTabulatorMatrix | 12.17.08 - 2:20 pm | #
I find some humor in the idea that the next Treasury Sec could come in on the 20th and say, "Goodby Sec. Mellon. Oh and good luck."
Unfortunately, Geithner is complicit and would do no such thing.
Nanook is a master at baiting.
\t Speed | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 2:36 pm | #
Speed | 12.17.08 - 2:36 pm | #
and at delusion.
Nanook, the believer lol...what a maroo
Nanook is a master at baiting.
Take out the "at" and the line is more humorous.
Beware - Quantitative Easing is Hallucinogenic
Wed, 17 December 2008 By Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends
The Bernanke Fed cant wait to experiment with QE, by printing unlimited amounts of US-dollars out of thin air, and monetizing the US Treasurys debt.
However, Quantitative Easing is a very dangerous hallucinogenic drug - it produces changes in perception, thought, and feeling, ranging from distortions of what is sensed (illusions) to sensing objects where none exist (hallucinations). QE can transmit false perceptions about the health of the economy and the direction of the stock market.
The three-year program was supposed to help 400,000 borrowers avoid foreclosure. But it has attracted only 312 applications since its October launch because it is too expensive and onerous for lenders and borrowers alike...
That is funny. That is rofl funny. That really, really funny.
chris mathews. won't. shut. up...
--
"Anybody got a link to that? I've found him to be one of the most insightful economists around. I almost doesn't feel right to call him an economist - he seems to have an awareness of the real world."
ac,
I read his reports daily and have read more than 1,000 over the past 3 years. Sorry, no link (you may search); I get them via e-mail. Rosenberg is a true exception on Wall Street.
I HAVE QUOTED MORE ROSENBERG ON THIS BLOG THAN ALL THE POSTERS COMBINED! Born-and-bred American dopes like to read and quote propagandists. Tells you how dopes are bred, no?
Jas
Current NY governor has a good idea...tax soda pop. Coke and Pepsi are big business and this would likely generate non-trivial revenue for each state that implements it. There are alcohol and tobacco taxes, why not pop? Not that this would be enough to solve a lot, but it would help and would provide marginal disincentive for consumption.
I have argued since the beginning of all these "mod" talks that unless one thing is done, they are all doomed to failure.
Tragically, it is the one thing the banksters, PTB, don't want to do.
REDUCE THE PRINCIPLE.
People aren't going to go for 40, 50-year mortgages.
Reintroducing teaser rates will not help.
Letting people not pay for 12 months will not help.
Esp. in bubbley areas, where housing exceeding half a mil for so-called "starter" homes, the only way to keep these people in their homes is to knock 50% off the balance.
However, I am sure, besides the banksters, the neighbors who bought decades ago don't want to see their perceived equity drop 50%.
This whole mod plan was a non-starter from the start.
Was never going to work on the scale the banksters thought it would.
Additionally, reducing mortgages to 3.5% will not kick start this economy again, either.
Will it help some. Sure, we've got some smart folks on this board ready to refi. It should help them.
Me. Not a chance. Houses still have to come down to the 250-300K range here in South OC to be reasonable.
Why? Because Prop 13 is really 1.5%, not 1.1%. LO told me that is what they use for calculations. HOAs will kill you at anywhere from 100-300/month. Add in insurance, another 100/month. Right there, you have anywhere from $400-$800/month in impounds, which at 3.5% on a mortgage, equals 100K borrowed.
Therefore, even if homes are 350K, with the impounds, it feels like a 450K monthly nut.
Comrade Terry writes:
Rob Dawg; Too funny!
Think of it as long futures contract. Cost $10.95. I'm figuring to get 100x that if only to shut down any negativity. Boy, wouldn't that just chafe the hide of the CR regulars, me getting a grand or more of tax money to close off a possible conduit of free speech.
The heavy hand of justice:
Bernard Madoff, accused of the largest fraud in U.S. history, will be allowed to remain in his $7 million Park Avenue apartment instead of being sent to jail, under terms of an agreement announced today by federal prosecutors.
Oh the humanity!
Cox's denunciation of his underlings is reminiscent of USSR.
In Soviet Russia, the buck stops you!
does he get a purse to go with his anklet?
Shnapster scores!
Operation Hope Not Our Easy Solution
Rob Dawg(Supercalifragilisticexpealodocious) writes:
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 2:46 pm | #
I was referring to your 'rating'.
Client of mine is 6 months behind and no foreclosure filed with Countryfried, AND they won't work with him. He's somebody who might catch up.
lawyerliz
It would appear that there are FAR more foreclosures waiting under the covers than we have been led to believe. I know of three in my little bit of awareness and I am not in the real estate/banking business. These are just sitting there without being claimed. Not yet foreclosed but forlorn. How many more are there outside of the system accounting?
Cox REFUSED to answer if their were any other "Madoff" type entities out there...why??? what does he know??
AC --
Here's a link to Rosenberg:
David Rosenberg - Credit Writedowns
Current NY governor has a good idea...tax soda pop.
Actually, a pretty good idea. How Pigovian!
Farking dumb as usual is that nobody wants to see the solution.
You now have Zillow showing roughly what a house is worth today with all of these foreclosures priced in.
So you mod the loan to Zillow and give the folks a 30 year mortgage at 4%.
Viola!!! Crisis is solved, and people stay in their houses.
Or sell and move up.
No fancy fixes or stupid contraindicative incentives.
Just do it.
For real.
That solves everything but having a job.
Someday this war's gonna end...
This kind of sucks. Why we just do another useless "FOR THE FATHERLAND!" rush towards the Germans?!
ac,
I read his reports daily and have read more than 1,000 over the past 3 years. Sorry, no link (you may search); I get them via e-mail. Rosenberg is a true exception on Wall Street.
I HAVE QUOTED MORE ROSENBERG ON THIS BLOG THAN ALL THE POSTERS COMBINED! Born-and-bred American dopes like to read and quote propagandists. Tells you how dopes are bred, no?
Jas
Jas Jai
Is this a pay for subscription thing or something you just sign up for?
I'd fork over $$$ for a sub if necessary.
Paulson: Major financial institutions stabilized...
and the DOW tips downward
That solves the homeowners problem AllenM but creates a new one for those that own the loans.
There is no free lunch.
Speed writes:
The heavy hand of justice:
Bernard Madoff, accused of the largest fraud in U.S. history, will be allowed to remain in his $7 million Park Avenue apartment instead of being sent to jail, under terms of an agreement announced today by federal prosecutors.
Oh the humanity!
Speed | 12.17.08 - 2:47 pm | #
Tell me again why anyone pays their bills at all in this country.
Jas, you cannot answer that question.
This is just as bad as when Bilkem got to keep that what, 2 Bil he made. It was there waiting after the jail time.
This country is pointless.
Guy smokes weed and gets 6 months.
Guy steals %50 Bil and gets to stay home.
Where, oh where, have we gone wrong?
When will the common folk grow some and say enough is enough?
I hate my country. We penalize the least of us and glorify the ones who rob, imprison, steal, torture, etc.
I am disgusted by it all.
Rant off!
AllenM, it would help job creation/retention as well. With people freed from huge mortgage payments they will spend again, or at least have the capability. Jobs would also be created in the mortgage modification market. It would be a huge job to modify all those loans...It's no crazier than what they ARE doing...
Enough already with the modifications: to suggest they will fix the problem is to deny reality (something the government is good at, I realize, especially Sheila Bair, she seems really out of touch with reality).
If houses were bought with cash, it would be simple - the buyer would suffer a loss on sale.
However, since most houses were bought with non-recourse debt, the incentive to stay in the house when the debt exceeds the value of the asset are minimal (there are some reputational reasons - credit scores - but those are weak when facing tens of thousands of loss). Nothing short of reducing the debt will make those people pay.
Then there are the growing contingent of people without the ability to pay. No type of mod will help them either, since without income, there isn't much to pay the debt with.
So you are basically left with a) those with no equity who value their reputation/credit score, and b) those who have a reduced (but not eliminated) ability to pay their debt.
Group A could use a Mod, but might not need one, depending on how they value their reputation. Group B is the only group that current Mods will likely help. I would suspect that population is small, mostly consisting of people in self employed or occasional or commission jobs: small business owners, contract laborers, etc. Those people might have a reduced but not eliminated income. the problem with them is, if you mod them today, their income might drop tomorrow, meaning they need another mod, until eventually they hit a threshold where no mod will help.
It should be no surprise, then, that most Mods fail.
What a bunch of wimps! 4.5% for 30 yr fixed is still only the same cashflow as 6% I.O. When will they really go for it, and offer NINA loans to investors at 107% CLTV and Neg Am payments for five years?
It should work in our area -- We've seen many cash sales recently!
Citizen AllenM writes:
"You now have Zillow showing roughly what a house is worth today with all of these foreclosures priced in."
The Zillow numbers are completely bogus in many areas. Basing anything on Zillow numbers would be a complete disaster.
me getting a grand or more of tax money to close off a possible conduit of free speech
I think that falls in line with my expectations of the future in the US.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 2:46 pm | #
More like an option...
Re: oil
Well, the Feb '09 futures are still above $45.
But sure enough, the Jan '09 is below $40.50.
I guess this what they mean by "contango". So I suppose it costs more than $5/barrel to store oil for a month (?).
How amusing.
They left out of the bible...in the end : GERMANY WINS (kind of)
Good luck stuffing the Genie in the bottle. When exactly will the fools understand that you can't legislate asset prices? It's not like they have no history concerning Bubbles of all types, yet we get try try again digging us ever deeper into the abyse.
Can I strangle Nemo, so cute fish but I HATE CUTE!
Jan Crude closed at 40.06
2:43 p.m.
Calif. board shuts off $3.8 bln in infrastructure funds: WSJ
Let the layoffs begin....
I'm becoming more and more pessimistic these days because I see that as a country we have very serious problems
The culture is toast. The constant harping of "free market" has eroded the true foundation of efficiency and prosperity, which was a population that sacrificed at the short-end to build towards the long-end, i.e. honesty is a function of altruism.
What we have now is a culture that's learned to lie well, both to itself and others, which is why we are here, now, at this point, in this crisis.
History says it won't get fixed and I believe history.
Most of these "mods" will never save anyone because if you need to cut the monthly by $200/month to save the house, you are already too close to the edge.
Now, if you want to cut the $200/month to free up the money and the numbers work, even if you don't get the "mod", then okay.
It is kinda like all those people screaming that they were BK because gas was costing them $150/month more.
If you are already that close to the edge, I argue it is already too late.
For the frugal, no. Anytime you can save some money, go for it.
But if saving $200-300/month keeps you from starving, you need to downsize.
Sorry for my lack of empathy.
However, common sense should indicate to these people that life is too short to chase some dream conjured by a silk suit bankster on Wall Street.
The gist of the HUD Secretary complaint is that Congress made the requirements of the mods such that few would qualify. Remember that we're talking about a government (i.e. taxpayer) insured mortgage as the intended outcome of the mod. This is one Congressional mandate that I'm glad is both unfunded and failing.
-- A California state board will shut off nearly $4 billion in infrastructure spending to focus on services while the state seeks to close a ballooning deficit, according to media reports Wednesday. The Pooled Money Investment Board, chaired by state Treasurer Bill Lockyer, reportedly voted to halt the flow of money to about 2,000 projects including highways, prisons and schools, so the state can free up money for public safety, health care and other crucial services.
"Calif. board shuts off $3.8 bln in infrastructure funds: WSJ"
--crispy&cole
I read that this was due to a bond sale fail. I guess Cali is not willing to pay the going rates for bonds?
4) transfer of about $1T of wealth from Americans to upper 1%
km4 | 12.17.08 - 2:27 pm | #
Actually from the perspective of Bush, Cheney, and their base (top 1% plus extraction industry) they have been a smashing success.
Treasonous bastards.
3.8 billion...come on super size me...
there are FAR more foreclosures waiting under the covers
How many couples do you know who could manage one or the other being unemployed? Our two-income lifestyle is critical to keeping people in their houses. Unemployment is going to double the size of the next foreclosure tsunami.
Nanook, let's look at the facts:
* Bush redistributed $1T from 99% of Americans to the top 1%. Fair or not, that's what he did.
* Bush pressed Congress to authorize $700B in handouts to failed business gambles, claiming a financial holocaust would happen otherwise (it didn't when they voted no the first time).
* Bush authorized $2T-$3T in handouts to businesses without Congress' approval, including a major handout the day after the $700B was finally approved on the second vote.
Bottom line, $4T says there are a million people in top hats and tuxedos who have Bush in their pocket. So if you want to bring this ups, let's remember where we're coming from.
No more than 3 times income has been the norm since Moby Dick was a minnow, but they seem to think they can levitate 8 - 10 times income by some magic. At this point, housing is but one piece of this shit pie we are faced with right before the Holidays.
I should add that ironically most of the $4T went to failed businesses who caused this financial mess, when there are far more businesses that had nothing to do with it and are getting zero.
sm_landlord writes:
"Calif. board shuts off $3.8 bln in infrastructure funds: WSJ"
--crispy&cole
I read that this was due to a bond sale fail. I guess Cali is not willing to pay the going rates for bonds?
sm_landlord | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 3:01 pm | #
Simply put, the state is BK.
Why would I lend you $100 today, despite you telling me you will pay $110 next week? Especially if you can't pay your bills now.
This is simple.
We have surpassed the tipping point of peak credit/debt.
The game will be over soon.
David Beim: Citi is too big to nationalize rosenberg
rew
That link bears repeating. Excellent references for anyone needing a history of this sordid affair under:
Credit Crisis Timeline
History says it won't get fixed and I believe history.
Broward Horne
I would have to agree based on what I've read:
Historically things don't get fixed. Things get "fixed" in effect when they collapse and are (hopefully) replaced by something better.
Maybe the key is having parts of a society rebuilt in this way without having the entire culture collapse...
Speed writes:
there are FAR more foreclosures waiting under the covers
How many couples do you know who could manage one or the other being unemployed? Our two-income lifestyle is critical to keeping people in their houses. Unemployment is going to double the size of the next foreclosure tsunami.
Speed | 12.17.08 - 3:02 pm | #
My nextdoor neighbor, who seemed to be comfortably well-off, confessed to me the other day that she wishes she and her husband had rented their house (as my wife and I are doing). She said that they basically have a year before they might have to look for an exit strategy. Her hubby (a swell guy, BTW) is a mobile phone co. exec and always seemed to be on top of things. Very surprising to me.
Speed writes:
there are FAR more foreclosures waiting under the covers
How many couples do you know who could manage one or the other being unemployed? Our two-income lifestyle is critical to keeping people in their houses. Unemployment is going to double the size of the next foreclosure tsunami.
Speed | 12.17.08 - 3:02 pm | #
One of the many reason my wife doesn't work.
Also, we could get by on a 30% pay reduction for me. It would be lean, but survivable.
What is sad is that too many have partied waay tooo long. I was one, but got out in what seems to be just in time.
Of course, if my worst case scenario plays out like I think it will none of it will matter.
The only thing that will is what is in the pantry cubbard.
" 'They' have no idea of how much waste and overemployment resulted from the credit bubble and still hiding, but 'they' are aboiut to find out. "
'They' . excepting the Bubble Brothers, Roubini and Krugman.
"The game will be over soon."
...many will simply "bow out". The older dissenters will take the ever tightening avenue of the underground, live and travel "under the radar". This year's maximums are $8950, not requiring a federal tax return. Residence in a cash friendly state with no state income tax (ie: Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming) and inherent FedGov reporting. Many of the marginal fall through the cracks, debt-free, existing on the edge, living off the land in varying degrees of comfort, satisfied in the fact they are not assisting in perpetrating the scam of a once great nation.
It seems the only salvation for this country is a complete rebirth. Most though don't contemplate anything so remote, they're perfectly content to go about their lives with their cell in one hand, a steering wheel in the other, and a dozen different points of chaotic interests barraging their brain simultaneously. A perfect way of life "according to [their] Hoyle"
"Maybe the key is having parts of a society rebuilt in this way without having the entire culture collapse..."
No no no, the GODS envy for that us mortals. To be GOD YOU must never fail, you must be almighty!
And that is the very reason the gods created us! For the very one thing they cannot do without being mere mortals...TO FAIL and FAIL AGAIN doing the same thing! Welcome to the end circus!
Ca = Madoff!
housing is but one piece of this shit pie we are faced with right before the Holidays
Don't worry, there will be plenty of shit pie left for Spring break and summer vacation!
Black Star Ranch, you strike me as an anti-government Montana militia style tax-dodging nutter.
The last thing this country needs is more cheats and liars . . . like you.
Some seem to forget members like Dodd who got special a rate through a VIP Program and who said it was because of good credit. F***ing Leach! I say this only to point out that neither Party has one ounce of virtue. They are Legal Organized Crime Syndicates who offer protection for Tribute. These are the facts IMHO.
Defining the term "suckage" (glad I don't trade there):
TSX and TSX Venture Markets will NOT be re-opening for trading today. TSX will be enabled for a pre-open session today between 16:00 and 18:00 ET to allow participants the option of canceling, adding or CFOing open orders.
TSX expects to be operating as usual Thursday.
ot-market open now...
keep it together until xmas...
ova writes:
The three-year program was supposed to help 400,000 borrowers avoid foreclosure. But it has attracted only 312 applications since its October launch because it is too expensive and onerous for lenders and borrowers alike...
That is funny. That is rofl funny. That really, really funny.
And if anyone thinks that health care managed by the govt is going to be any better, then you need to think again.
We Have To Be Able To Laugh About This Stuff - Dealbreaker - A Wall Street Tabloid - Business News Headlines and Financial Gossip
Reporter: "Can investors be confident that there aren't any other Madoff schemes out there in operation?" Things that would've been preferable to the words that actually exited Cox's mouth: 1. "Yes." 2. "No." 3. "Everyone should flee the market, do panic. Do not make an orderly line for the exits. Do trample over the old ladies in the back row on your way out. And when you leave, set fire to nearby buildings. It's all over, bitches!" What he actually said: "We say that a rising tide lifts all boats. When the economic tide goes out, some of the skeletons that wash up on shore are Ponzi schemes such as this one. So one of the ways that these things are unhappily discovered is the roof falls in because of market conditions. "
Any idea how much it cost to run the Hope Now program? Is it by any chance more than the entire cost of 312 homes? How many of those 312 applications were approved?
If the budget for Hope Now (employees, publicity, printing, website, etc.) exceeded about $60 million, they could have simply cashed out 312 mortgages at about $200k apiece.
Black Star Ranch writes:
"The game will be over soon."
...many will simply "bow out". The older dissenters will take the ever tightening avenue of the underground, live and travel "under the radar". This year's maximums are $8950, not requiring a federal tax return. Residence in a cash friendly state with no state income tax (ie: Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming) and inherent FedGov reporting. Many of the marginal fall through the cracks, debt-free, existing on the edge, living off the land in varying degrees of comfort, satisfied in the fact they are not assisting in perpetrating the scam of a once great nation.
I gotta admit that if the kids were grown up, I might try to convince the wife of this.
In fact, I floated the idea fo buying something very cheap in the Northern SC/TN border area or maybe in S/N Dakota and just paying it down. Then when it is time to go, move there.
Needless to say, she wasn't thrilled.
However, I don't see how much longer the entire system is viable.
I know we have all seen bad news all the time. However, the speed and size of what is coming combined with the outright theft, lying, deception, snake oil, lack of moral/values/ethics, and sheer contempt for one another, let alone the less fortunate is frighteningly worse than I can ever remember when I was younger and my father would save his doom and gloom articles from the New York Daily News or Bergen Record.
"Calif. board shuts off $3.8 bln in infrastructure funds: WSJ"
Sounds like somebody is shifting from spending their money on infrastructure to spending Obama's infrstructure stimulus money. So there is $3.8b that is simply a wash as far as the economy is concerned. If all of the other states do the same thing we won't be doing anything extra for a couple of years.
\tnova writes:
The three-year program was supposed to help 400,000 borrowers avoid foreclosure. But it has attracted only 312 applications since its October launch because it is too expensive and onerous for lenders and borrowers alike...
Bubbles | 12.17.08 - 3:12 pm | #
Were they only offering a free toaster for the first 300 people who signed up?
..."you strike me as an anti-government Montana militia style tax-dodging nutter."
Incorrect, Gary. USMC '67-70, tax-paying realist.
Jas Jain writes:
NOTE: Please note that all commentaries on economics, investments and politics are about the behavior of the participant.
#
That is a lie, because this:
Jas Jain writes:
What is worse, of course, is the faith in the system displayed by born-and-bred American dopes because Americans ARE BRED with blind faith in the system even when Crooks and evildoers have hijacked the system.
Is your usual all-inclusive racist troll. Why discredit your valuable contributions.
Coming from bakersfiled, c&c, i'd figure you knew about seasonality.
Check '09-'10 prices.
$60-70's
The last thing this country needs is more cheats and liars . . . like you.
Gary
Check out D.C. I think you will find this nation run by those you abhore. Doing exactly what you think should not be done. Then go to Sacramento or any state gov't. Same thing. Then go to your bank. Same thing. Then look at your tax forms. Fudge 'em once, twice, just a little bit didja? It's the culture of upright monkeys.
And for the question: Could almighty god create heavier stone that he/she/it can possibly lift?
The answer is no. One must be a mortal to do it and order to switch into mortal is to probably to jump into nearest black hole.
Broward, ya got that right. It's gonna be shit pie festival 2009 in all parts of this former Republic. Today we are a Banana Republic.
PutItOnMyTab writes:
Shnapster scores!,/i>
Thanks, "Operation Hope Not Our Easy Solution" is better known by its acronym.
OH NOES!
Gary,
Where do you get that out blck stars comment..What's wrong with being simple..
calling someone a liar and a cheat over a blog makes you look small
Black Star Ranch, you strike me as an anti-government Montana militia style tax-dodging nutter.
Gary | 12.17.08 - 3:11 pm | #
I dunno, Gary - he seems quite rational to me, and I appreciate his input. Besides, he doesn't appear to be advocating; rather, making an observation.
Black Star thank you for your service to this country from a grateful American.
This is only the beginning. Gov't will inject increasing amounts of money into the zombie banks. They will not lend, but hoard the capital. What is the incentive? The only way they will lend will be through their usurious subsidiaries. Successive attempts to spurt the housing market with lower rates will lock the Fed into keeping rates at zero. Interest rates on savings accounts will trend steadily downwards, eventually reaching an effective zero. People will pull money out of banks, and keep cash in their wardrobes. More and more money gets taken out of the system, hiding in the wardrobes. Scared, we all hoard cash. Why not? The banks pay us nothing with their savings accounts. All of this is deflationary. As far as I can tell, there is no escape from a true deflationary spiral. ZIRP perversely reinforces the spiral through the liquidity trap. Bernanke has ensured that this country will stagnate for decades to come.
semper fi, Black Star
Incorrect, Gary. USMC '67-70, tax-paying realist.
Black Star Ranch | 12.17.08 - 3:15 pm | #
My regrets if I am in error, I would have sworn it was you who posted within the last few days boasting of not filing taxes for years.
The truth is in the body of the article:
"There were two philosophies on the Hill: Let's throw the barn door open and help as many people as we can regardless of the reasons. Or we need to make them pay because they should have known what they were doing," Montgomery said. "They found some middle philosophical ground, but that philosophical middle ground made [the program] unworkable."
It's called class warfare. Never more out in the open than in times like these. Recall the unionization wars of the 1930's (my Father was an organizer for the railroad (Seaboard) unions).
Jim
tes
cd writes:
Gary,
Where do you get that out blck stars comment..What's wrong with being simple..
calling someone a liar and a cheat over a blog makes you look small
cd | 12.17.08 - 3:17 pm | #
Amen!
Amen!
Amen!
Gary, you better get used to simplicity.
It is coming to a country near you.
Parting like it is the Reagan years is coming to a close. Massive deficits do matter and so does your debt.
You may argue you have none. Well over a blog we can all say anything. However, assuming you don't have any, whattabout the rest of this country?
I also love how when people make comments about the system we are always considered to be tax evaders.
Heck, I am 41 and I have filed since 1986, my second year of college.
No evader here. In fact, one year the FEDs actually said I made a mistake in our favor. Refunded us the difference.
Not that it matters to you.
But that is alright. Keep livin the La Vida Loca.
Just don't come to N. Dakota when the system finally crashes into a zillion little pieces of IOUs!
All: I may be wrong but I piled that comment on top of one I recall from earlier this week that boasted of not filing taxes.
If I'm wrong, my mistake, I apologize to BSR.
And they said Ishtar was a failure, too. Failure is a misused word.
Let's get back on track then, shall we?
Mods are not working and this thread has shown why.
Doesn't matter.
Goobermint will try something else.
No more stick saves, I guess. This was def. a big one in the bazooka.
Oh well. Greater recession, here we come!
ille_vir | 12.17.08 - 3:19 pm | #
Currency devaluation appears then as perhaps the only way to raise the nominal price level, while serving as a stealth cramdown to dollar denominated debt?
RE: Class warfare
It will come to a shock to many that they aren't in the "upper class", and for everyone else that they aren't "middle class".
USMC '67-70
Black Star Ranch | 12.17.08 - 3:15 pm | #
Semper fi, you old salt.
USMC '66-'70.
What, a government program has failed? You don't say. That's not right. The MSM has it wrong.
Speed | 12.17.08 - 3:25 pm | #
Yep, the two class world of the 1%..."us" and "the help."
Break up the big banks, turn every single loan over to a local bank and let them work it out. Give all the Fed funds to local banks and credit unions. Let the big dinosaurs die.
That's the only way we get out of this mess.
Semper Fi, citizen energyecon....
Semper fi, you old salt.
Comrade Terry | 12.17.08 - 3:25 pm | #
I speak on behalf of many posters: Thank you for making us feel young again.
Oh, and all that service stuff too.
Jas Jain writes:
The first major democracy to disintegrate would be in India. The Indian Mind, or soul, is not a democratic mind, or soul.
#
The "Indian Mind" was free of this...
Jas Jain writes:
Of course, these dopes always want to take their anger on someone "other" than themselves.
Jas Jain writes:
Democracy was imposed by Anglicized Indians educated, or BRED, in England and later turned over to Americanized corporate Crooks, just like in America.
#
...until their souls were corrupted by "the other"...
You discredit your otherwise valuable message with this racist trolling.
thanks Black Star from me and my kid..
I wish all of them were home kicking booty on the border, patrolling the natl forests kicking booty on the Mex cartel labs and fields etc...
Merry Christmas to Veterans and active duty personnel everywhere!!
you strike me as an anti-government Montana militia style tax-dodging nutter.
No that would be except I am from Massachusetts...And I do not dodge taxes, I just refuse to play along.
How many couples do you know who could manage one or the other being unemployed? Our two-income lifestyle is critical to keeping people in their houses. Unemployment is going to double the size of the next foreclosure tsunami.
Speed | 12.17.08 - 3:02 pm |
waves hand We could essentially live as we do right now if my job ended today (though my job isn't going anywhere unless my non-bubbled but Oil dependent state' govt were to go BK). If DH was laid off, we'd have to scrimp, but we could make the house payments, keep the lights on, and put food on the table. We save over 30% of our take home consistently, and could get that over 50% if we cut out luxuries. Those were conscious decisions about lifestyle that we made once we got to a point in our lives (late 20s) where we consistently had more than the bare minimum income.
And re: black star ranch/OCDan, We don't have the skills or the inclination to go off to the woods to do the Mother Earth News guns 'n gold off-grid thing, but we do live as simple and sustainable a life as possible here in the world, where our talents can do more good for others. While we protect ourselves and our interests, Life isn't just about us and our self-gratification--we're supposed to use what we have to help others, not just pile up gadgets or McMansions or even bank balances. Lately I've started wondering if we'd be in this pickle if more people had remembered and lived that basic truth...
...but that just may be our hippie boomer parents talking.
Currency devaluation appears then as perhaps the only way to raise the nominal price level, while serving as a stealth cramdown to dollar denominated debt?
| \t12.17.08 - 3:24 pm | #
\t citizen energyecon | \t \t \tHomepage
Is it possible? Remember, monetary policy doesn't happen in a vaccuum like Bernanke's 2002 speech (this was mentioned earlier to me) assumes it would. I read that speech, and it seemed to me an unrealistic exercise in theoretical policy. Political constraints are the reality of real-world monetary and fiscal policy. Can we devalue our currency to a level makes debt less significant, without having political consequences? I doubt it, but am open to arguments to the contrary.
And here it is, from yesterday:
Black Star Ranch writes:
"just once I'd like people to do the responsible thing"
I did....I stopped filing YEARS ago....
Black Star Ranch | 12.16.08 - 2:47 pm | #
What say you, Black Star Ranch?
there was a post from someone that linked a milton freidman paper that said high inflation was a way out of a debt-induced depression scenario because it devalued debt, thus it reduced the problem causing the depression. i'm no economist, what are the thoughts from the austrians?
"USMC '67-70
Black Star Ranch | 12.17.08 - 3:15 pm | #
Semper fi, you old salt.
USMC '66-'70.
Comrade Terry | 12.17.08 - 3:25 pm |"
Wow,there are actually a few of us on here...
I'll give ya an Oorah... 84-88 for my sorry ass...
Chris
How many employees did the government employ, and how much did they spend on these failed programs?
Don't worry, there will be plenty of shit pie left for Spring break and summer vacation!
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 3:10 pm | #
i dont know , my kids asked which beach we will go to this summer and i told them, absolutly depended on the deals ...we may be in mexico on the cheap....vs the redneck riveria...
BTW uu-rah black star ranch and Semper Fi
These are just sitting there without being claimed. Not yet foreclosed but forlorn. How many more are there outside of the system accounting?
~~~~
Lots ... the whole mortgage system has crashed. Th banks are delaying foreclosures to help their MBS ... Th whole thing stinks ...
We need a bank holiday to sort this mess out ...
What say you, Black Star Ranch?
I stopped filing, too. Right now the Feds owe me something like $15K but frankly, I've just been too overwhelmed by how fucked up work is and my divorce to deal with it.
You're a robot, Gary.
Not particularly useful skill for survival, although apparently neither is honesty or hard work.
How can modifications not work? Either the borrower has no income to make the payments or the modification is not large enough. Why is that so hard to understand?
And re: black star ranch/OCDan, We don't have the skills or the inclination to go off to the woods to do the Mother Earth News guns 'n gold off-grid thing, but we do live as simple and sustainable a life as possible here in the world, where our talents can do more good for others. While we protect ourselves and our interests, Life isn't just about us and our self-gratification--we're supposed to use what we have to help others, not just pile up gadgets or McMansions or even bank balances. Lately I've started wondering if we'd be in this pickle if more people had remembered and lived that basic truth...
...but that just may be our hippie boomer parents talking.
Mostly Lurker | 12.17.08 - 3:29 pm | #
No argument from this corner with your lifestyle.
You obviously have your heads screwed on right.
As Ghandi said the world can provide for everyone, not just everyone's greed.
Or, if you like, and as you have been doing by your post:
Live simply, so others may simply live.
You make a great comment about piling up McMansions.
For me, it has always been the retire at 40 syndrome.
Not for me, persay, as I am reconciled to working until the Good Lord takes me.
However, I always wondered if we all retire at 40 and sip Martinis poolside in the Caymen's, who is going to do the work of this country?
You mean there's b-n-b dopes in the rest of the world? I don't believe JJ really believes that, do you?
Jas writes
"...born-and-bred dopes, in America and elsewhere..."
A bank holiday would end up being all the bankers getting in a room together and scratching each others back. The banks should declare bankruptcy and liquidate. Private investors should get a chance at the assets too.
to think that just 6 months ago, our leaders were denying the possibility of a recessio
Could live in one salary, and may have to. It'd be tight, but doable. House paid for, car bought with cash. If one of us goes, the other still carries the health insurance.
My parents never quite got past the Great Depression, and I inherited their very basic approach to lifestyle.
Re: currency devaluation. Read up on competitive currency devaluation and the beggar-thy-neighbour policy.
It will be interesting to see whether this works out as well as Bernanke and Paulson are hoping.
"Residence in a cash friendly state with no state income tax"
tune in, turn on, drop out
this just in America...news alert:
kim Kardashian puts out new sexy 09 calendar..
no wonder we are where we are...
Form 8-K
Form 8-K BankUnited
Black Star Ranch, do you file your taxes or not? Yesterday you said no, today you say yes.
I'll let it go after this whether you respond or not, but for the handful of you who jumped on my case, piss off.
Gary writes:
Incorrect, Gary. USMC '67-70, tax-paying realist.
Black Star Ranch | 12.17.08 - 3:15 pm | #
My regrets if I am in error, I would have sworn it was you who posted within the last few days boasting of not filing taxes for years.
Now this is getting interesting.
FWIW, Gary has a point.
"you strike me as an anti-government Montana militia style tax-dodging nutter."
Fuck the Montana...after they have "shot their nuke loads"..they will become number one MIRV targets. Bunch of weenies relying on M16s and other high-tech gears that really works when you have normal society to rely on.
But I'd rely more on any Asian village over those idiots, after all they have been living poorly for all of their lifes!
"I don't believe JJ really believes that, do you?"
I'm sure he does, but he also believes in American Exceptionalism, or what I like to call "A Citi On a Hill"
ille_vir | 12.17.08 - 3:29 pm | # ,
oh dear fellow commentariat, who said anything about doing it without political consequences? I just think we will go down this road, with all the attendant consequences - and we will be most fortunate indeed if it is limited to a trade war.
Hi I am new here and learning.... Why are all mortgages "upside down".. where you pay interest first and gain little equity... wouldnt it be better for homeowners (not the banks) to have people get more equity in the beginning? Would this help solve some problems?
I know that in the beginning the loan is higher so more interest accrues... but is there any way around this (besides just overpaying each month?)
Could the gov't require lenders to use different amoritzaion tables?
OT: Federal spending soars 25% before bailout
The government's spending commitments exploded by 25 percent in 2008, putting taxpayers more than $1 trillion in the hole even before the astronomical costs of the economic bailout were taken into account, according to an annual report released Monday by the White House.
A joint report by the White House budget office and Treasury Department said that much of the increase in obligations came from an unexpected jump in veterans benefits liabilities, while revenues remained mostly flat because of the recession that began a year ago.
Jim Nussle, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, called the report "sobering."
The report showed that U.S. debts and liabilities are close to passing the value of the U.S. population's net worth, said Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonprofit organization devoted to promoting fiscal responsibility.
"The value of this report is that it shows the long-term cost of expensive commitments we are making today," said Brian Riedl, a budget analyst for the Heritage Foundation.
"The government makes a lot of commitments that cost a little in the short run but a lot in the long run, and this document is one of the only government documents that show the long-term cost of the long-term commitments," Mr. Riedl said. "What it shows is that future trends are completely unsustainable because the government has promised more benefits than the taxpayers can pay for."
Federal spending soars 25% before bailout - Washington Times
What part of guaranteeing/spending up to $8 trillion on bailouts is not sustainable? I don't get it. (sarcasm off).
PS - I can't wait to see the final tally a year from now. The govt has low-balled every stat out of DC, so $1T is probably the absolute minimum we will be over budget.
Black Star Ranch is going to have to change handles.
"I've just been too overwhelmed by how..."
Condolences, BH, I'm sure it feels like an army of parasites is sucking away at you some days. I hope it all works out for the best.
you who jumped on my case, piss off
Gary | 12.17.08 - 3:37 pm | #
Hey, Gary - osculate this!
O/T:
I don't have one dime in this market, yet its logic is maddening.
Dow 9,000 despite the prospect of a Detroit bankruptcy (dude, where's my bailout?); unaninmously crummy macro and micro-metrics; and a zero-interest rate policy that spells liquidity trap according to every economics textbook and college professor I paid attention to.
Feel free to fill in the data points I've omitted; or better yet, offer a better point of view that might help me sleep at night. If any of you would remind me that Miss Stock Market is a discounting mechanism, fine, but what decade?
/rant
Gary,
ditto!!
it has more to do with your assumption and statment referring to him as a liar and cheat.
If you're not successful staying under the radar without paying taxes, don't move here!
http://www.dor.state.wi.us/html/delqlist.html
"no wonder we are where we are..."
UGA Dawg | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 3:37 pm | #
Christ,I had to google the name. I had no idea who that was. I think I live under a rock...
Chris
kim Kardashian puts out new sexy 09 calendar..
no wonder we are where we are...
UGA Dawg | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 3:37 pm | #
Link please...
"What say you, Black Star Ranch?"
Gary....
2008 Federal tax law says returns are not required for incomes less than $8950 per yr. - I don't make up the rules, I just try to abide by them....FYI, I am NOT a liar nor a cheat, but I might suggest you use a little more care when labeling people in regards to facts of a particular point.
oh dear fellow commentariat, who said anything about doing it without political consequences? I just think we will go down this road, with all the attendant consequences - and we will be most fortunate indeed if it is limited to a trade war.
| \t12.17.08 - 3:38 pm | #
\t citizen energyecon | \t \t \tHomepage
I see! I guess this kind of possibility is what makes the future so interesting. Me, I never imagine governments going down such destabilizing policy paths. You're right though, America is quite capable of doing such things. Interesting!
A bank holiday would end up being all the bankers getting in a room together and scratching each others back.
~~~~~
No the bankers would be asked to leave the building as their positions are terminated.
We need banks as a public utility whose benefits go to the tax payers ...
OT: California board votes to halt infrastructure funds
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A California state board will shut off nearly $4 billion in infrastructure spending to focus on services while the state seeks to close a ballooning deficit, according to media reports Wednesday. The Pooled Money Investment Board, chaired by state Treasurer Bill Lockyer, reportedly voted to halt the flow of money to about 2,000 projects including highways, prisons and schools, so the state can free up money for public safety, health care and other crucial services.
"If any of you would remind me that Miss Stock Market is a discounting mechanism"
If someone told you a year ago we would be at spx 915 but neglected to mention that we had hit 780 (or whatever it was) earlier, your perspective would be different. Though I do share your frustrations and know exactly what you mean.
Gary,
Try not to be a sanctimonious prick, and the commentariat will try not to get on your case.
Look at it this way: Oil is below $40 a barrel and the Dow still can't break 9000. We ain't seen bottom yet.
I don't have one dime in this market, yet its logic is maddening.
Cheap money destroys the logic in the markets.
Cheap money, by definition implies money that under-prices risk and rational judgment.
So when the Fed lowers rates to pump money into the markets they are effectively pumping "illogical" behavior into them.
ille_vir | 12.17.08 - 3:46 pm | #
Unfortunately, to me it seems like a logical extension of the behavior to date...though it may also come about through external events.
I am NOT a liar nor a cheat, but I might suggest you use a little more care when labeling people in regards to facts of a particular point.
No but our illustrious congress is.
Jeez ... they can't even hold it together until Xmas ...
Then the January redemptions hit.
It's going to be a cold winter ...
Wait ... it's more expensive to try to save money than to just leave it as it is? This is insanely stupid. And hear all these idiots are talking about socialism? Folks, this is fascism at its finest; corporations do not want to take a loss no matter what.
The mods are failing because they are voluntary on the part of the lender but the lenders cannot accept them. Really can't. The losses exceed the lender's capital so every mod pushes them closer to bankruptcy - even if the mod results in them getting more money.
The writedowns will have to be forced onto the lenders - by foreclosure, forced mods, or inflation - and the lenders generally driven into bankruptcy before this is fixed. Right now the government is trying to avoid putting the banks and pensions into BK, which requires not recognizing the losses, which prohibits meaningful mods. We have to wait until the government is willing to face reality, or until virtually every mortgage issued after 2002 has been foreclosed on.
Anybody else feeling like this is later September all over again, with the Fed dropping a bomb to pump markets, but the market not feeling remotely stable? I would not be shocked if we had a repeat of the drop in October very soon.
I am reconciled to working until the Good Lord takes me
I started my divorce in Dec, 2005 and since then I've met something close to 400 women. I learned that most women really are driven by 'security'. Pre-marriage I never projected enough 'security' via clothes and possessions so I never did well with women.
In retrospect I realize that the only reason I attracted my wife is that I had finally graduated college in a lucrative field.
Now that I understand that, my desire to project 'security' is much lower, even though my ability is much higher.
The sex just wasn't that good. When the sex was good, it was great and it wasn't motivated by 'security' because those type of women are just crazy with lush anyway.
So if I erase 'status' and 'women' from my calculations, I actually don't need that much money.
I can't believe I didn't figure this out until I was almost fifty.
Umm... how about USN and never Again!
Ok, I got that out of my system.
I actually like the idea Black Star advocates. I just don't think I could live below the cut-off for paying taxes. Rather, I could but I do not want to.
anon,
That list is huge! I don't think anyone on that list even cares.
http://www.dor.state.wi.us/delqlist/nmalla.htm
Lionel,
Yep. Shorts are starting to feel major pain. So a rollover may start soon.
Rob Dawg(Supercalifragilisticexpealodocious) writes:
CR Companion Code
var ratingDescription = crcompanion.ratingDescriptions[messageCell.author.rating];
if (messageCell.author.nickname == "Rob Dawg")
{
ratingDescription = "Supercalifragilisticexpealodocious";
}
Either Ken is being funny or someone is monkeying with the CR Companion code.
The writedowns will have to be forced onto the lenders - by foreclosure, forced mods, or inflation - and the lenders generally driven into bankruptcy before this is fixed.
~~~~~
Bank Holiday ~ Swedish Plan ... then they can deal with the CDS and derivatives fiasco as well ...
I can't believe I didn't figure this out until I was almost fifty.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 3:51 pm | #
Hormones are not known for increasing human IQ.
"So if I erase 'status' and 'women' from my calculations, I actually don't need that much money."
Bravo. But dude, you still need your health. After 400 women you should probably get tested.
Either Ken is being funny or someone is monkeying with the CR Companion code.
RedVette | 12.17.08 - 3:53 pm | #
When trying to express oneself, it's frankly quite absurd,
To leaf through lengthy lexicons to find the perfect word.
A little spontaniaty keeps conversation keen,
You need to find a way to say, precisely what you mean...
Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!
Broward Horne writes:
The 2 sexiest words you can tell a women?
Financially Secure.
Fits Dawg to a T, methinks.
New Thread!
So if I erase 'status' and 'women' from my calculations, I actually don't need that much money.
I can't believe I didn't figure this out until I was almost fifty.
Broward Horne
How very true...
Unfortunately, to me it seems like a logical extension of the behavior to date...though it may also come about through external events.
| \t12.17.08 - 3:49 pm | #
\t citizen energyecon | \t \t \tHomepage
A logical extension, you think? This is completely out of the scope of the Japanese deflationary model that I've gotten used to referncing, but you're very right in that different countries will have different ways of reacting, and the US might have a much greater tolerance for destabilizing policies than Japan did. I wonder why I was locked into that way of thinking; probably because of my experience bias. BTW, what "external events" are you thinking of?
"Is this a pay for subscription thing or something you just sign up for?
I'd fork over $$$ for a sub if necessary."
ac | 12.17.08 - 2:54 pm
Email him
david_rosenberg AT ml.com
and ask ... couldn't hurt.
Doubt if you need to offer money.
Or do like me, volunteer at a charity or church to be Treasurer, then open up an account at Mother Merrill to keep the reserves' principal preserved. Your broker should be able to set you up to receive the emails that very day.
It'd be nice seeing what you quote from the emails, 'stead of what Jas thinks important.
BH--sorry, but I have to say this since it is at the end of a thread and this has been bugging me forever.
I can tell, just from your comments here about women, why you do not have one.
Good grief.
"I can't believe I didn't figure this out..."
I remember, when younger, hearing tales of men in the 40s who made the equivalent of 300K today yet only kept 60-70K after the taxes, ex-wife(s), kids...
it seemed like a bad joke that couldn't possibly be true
zeroira,
Once upon a time, people had to pay 20% down for a house, so they all had a reasonable amount of equity early on in the mortgage. (we followed this antiquated tradition when we bought earlier this year, but if you haven't guessed from my earlier posts, we're countercultural throwbacks). You also couldn't buy a house that cost more than 3x your hh annual income, give or take. However, at some point in the early 2000s these sensible rules were decreed to be antiquated and overly stringent, squashing a potential explosion of home ownership. Thus were born no-down payment NINJA Option-arm subprime Jumbo Loans. Housing duly bubbled, then imploded. (Hoocoodanode?)
As to what we do now that we've let pandora out of the box...I can't see any benefit to the lender for changing the amortization tables, and they (or the people who own the loans snow) are de facto calling the shots in the bailout via their hired hands in the treasury/fed.
Hey, Gary - osculate this!
Comrade Terry | 12.17.08 - 3:43 pm | #
had to look that one up.
Citizen EE - point taken. Made me smile for the first time today.
I've had a rough month and to be honest with myself I have been a bit of a dick lately.
Bush says sacrificed free-market principles to save economy...
was that in 2001 or 2008?
Rob Dawg- did you notice Ken Cooper has a rating especially for you?
I've had a rough month and to be honest with myself I have been a bit of a dick lately.
Gary | 12.17.08 - 3:59 pm
You could always change your login to Werner or Jas...
REBear writes:
anon,
That list is huge! I don't think anyone on that list even cares.
Some have jobs for State/County, might be a source if laid-off.
Couple years back there was only one or two over $1m. 09 should be interesting.
"Financially Secure."
nova | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 3:55 pm | #
Yep. It is really hard to find women who don't spend like sailors drink...
I had to...
Chris
broward,
Women seeking money are just way too much maintenance for this middle aged man.........
if she can get ready in 15 min, enjoys camping and puts up with me and my truck...winner winner chicken dinner...
I've had a rough month and to be honest with myself I have been a bit of a dick lately.
Gary | 12.17.08 - 3:59 pm | #
Understood. No lingering animosity.
Glad to have contributed to your ongoing edumacation....
I can tell, just from your comments here about women, why you do not have one
I have two and they're both awesome but they're definitely not normal.
Christopher Cox should do time if Madoff does time......
girlbear | 12.17.08 - 2:25 pm | #
Be a helluva fight over the top bunk.
Why not sleep together? They have had lots of practice at it.
Mirroring the economy, this blog has reached another historic low. What is the point of living without status and women?
S.
Question for the group:
Now that USD rates are lower than Yen rates, how would the Japanese weaken the yen? If they were to aggressively sell the yen, who would buy it? Alternatively, if they were to start buying USD, could they buy enough to make a difference in the price?
What options do the Japanese have in weakening the Yen?
"there was a post from someone that linked a milton freidman paper that said high inflation was a way out of a debt-induced depression scenario..."
Friedman's ideas aren't looking too good these days.
Much of this is wrapped up in something called "leadership." Unfortunately, Bernanke doesn't have the stature of Volcker.
The problem is also wrapped in expectations. Sometimes the threat of doing something--inflating, in this case--can be just as credible as actually printing money.
If Volcker was the current Fed chairman and said something like, "We're going hook up our presses directly to Three Mile Island and print until bond traders' noses bleed," he'd be taken seriously. The credit markets would thaw a lot faster than they are now.
Even if Bernanke de facto inflates, there's no guarantee that the markets will take him seriously. It isn't a given that prices and rates will automatically rise if the economy is inflated.
As Krugman has pointed out, you have to have a credible policy of inflation. For a Volcker, that would be a walk in the park, for Bernanke it isn't.
So, at the end of the day, we learn that all of the math and science comes down to personalities and beliefs. The money is only as good as the promise.
Do you believe?
Down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier
Poor Bernie Madoff
Under house arrest awaiting trial for stealing 50 billion
He will never see the inside of a jail cell.
The Wall Street crooks have absolutely no fear of the American justice system.
What is needed is a gallows with a couple of hangings every day televised nationally on Wall Street.
Bet the thievery and robbing would stop real fast
You also couldn't buy a house that cost more than 3x your hh annual income, give or take. However, at some point in the early 2000s these sensible rules were decreed to be antiquated and overly stringent, squashing a potential explosion of home ownership. Thus were born no-down payment NINJA Option-arm subprime Jumbo Loans. Housing duly bubbled, then imploded. (Hoocoodanode?)
Houses only ended up being 3X income because of the loose credit in the first place. So, even industrious responsible folks who played by the rules and tried to buy within their budgets, ended up in much smaller houses than they would have in the past.
Every homeowner is getting hurt in some way by this mess. Even the "throwbacks". That's the tragedy of this situation. A few bad apples really did spoil the whole barrel.
I have a theory about relationships.
Young men 16 to 22 - we get the model with the drama. Always throwing something, breaking, costing money...
Plus we feel the need to customize..
Very high maintenance but who cares...
Young 22 to 28 - Sports or something that moves quickly and looks cool. Less maintenance.
Not so young 29 to 39 Something kinda sporty, yet no too sporty. Solid - low to no maintenance
40 to 50 yrs old You want her her to like money, handle well, a little euro flair
50 to 55 - sports car! high maintenance and flash
55 plus start thinking about that sunset purchase...
Nova,BH, et al with similar female experiences,
I know this is a dying thread, but methinks you boys are looking in the wrong places, and are chasing girls instead of women. I'm cheaper than my husband, and as a mathemetician/software developer, he's pretty darned tight. Of course I'm not a size DD blonde either, so...shrug
Ok, back to the apocolypse!
"I can't believe I didn't figure this out until I was almost fifty.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 3:51 pm | # "
Yeah, well... that's maybe the earliest point you can think clearly. Experience. Hormones. You know.
The flip side is older widowers who rush right out and get another wife after the first one dies. Usually, in my experience, mainly for the free housekeeping/household management. Waving a prenup in front of them like a flag.
For a Volcker, that would be a walk in the park, for Bernanke it isn't.
~~~~
The problem is out of the Fed's hands ... At this point Volcker couldn't get it done either.
I've always found it useful to flip the question/model on its head and see if that helps understanding.
Here are two relevant examples.
Was this program designed to succeed? (I'll be even more precise, to actually keep people in houses.)
Why are women that don't spend not attracted to the likes of you?
Mostly Lurker | 12.17.08 - 4:07 pm
Ah,,,well, actually I am married to a Mercedes.
kool-aid-guzzler, why are there no jokes about Jonestown?
Because the punch line is too long!
3rd quarter FDIC State Profiles just released...
FDIC: FDIC State Profiles
Madoff under house arrest
Madoff Restricted to Home; U.S. Warns of Harm, Flight (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
"That list is huge! I don't think anyone on that list even cares.
http://www.dor.state.wi.us/delql...list/ nmalla.htm" (delinquent taxpayers)
My favorite: RELIABLE REAL ESTATE APPRAISALS, INC. $11,285.23
Gary | 12.17.08 - 3:59 pm | #
Hope things are looking up soon...we all have our moments, no?
What options do the Japanese have in weakening the Yen?
~~~~
print money without debt ... the Chinese already began ... Now us ... Japan next ... the EU exports will get crushed ...
Check out this chart from this Oppenheimer income fund. Just imagine the poor suckers that were searching for tad more yield. Good grief. Wall street has literally ruined millions of lives.
OPPENHEIMER CHAMPION INCOME FD Fund Chart - Yahoo! Finance
Keep this in mind the next time you hear Oppenheimer's Meredith Whitney. She gets credit for being the least worst. As if.
There are no professional investors anymore. Just scam artists.
The ponzi eCONomy.
There's never been a better time for costly but futile activity.
Who did that thing in the end? Timmy is mad.
"Madoff under house arrest" He's married?
Tm-so true..think of the cider we could have all drank together
MP-I dont believe...
OT-trending up in auto finance applications this month..
sdtfs writes:
Rob Dawg- did you notice Ken Cooper has a rating especially for you?
I think Ken is having a little fun. Gary & I joked about special tags yesterday. Looks like Ken is in on the joke. If only everyone could tell the difference twixt having fun and stroking one's ego.
Speaking of ego, did everyone notice the California debt offering failure and suspension of capital projects? I think it was Broward 3 weeks ago who discussed that possibility with me. Oh and the state 18mo deficit is now $41.8 billion.
You guys should try getting married a month after 'seeing' the person.
Do you believe?
\t mp | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 4:03 pm | #
Right on mp. At the end, our complex economic systems come down to something like a cult of personality. Then again, anyone who resorts to the perversity of ZIRP is bound to lose credibility. Wonder if Volcker could've pulled it off.
--
Born-and-bred American dopes confuse the criticism of modern democracy, originating in England and later perfected in America, as racist. Anglo-American domination of the world is a fact and when the world goes into chaos America would have lot to answer for.
Anglo-American democracy = Domination of Money, you dopes, and currently it IS domination of Crooks and Evildoers. Denial will not cure Americas ills.
It is not my fault that you were doped all your life.
Jas
"Every homeowner is getting hurt in some way by this mess."
true, but I am kind of happy that if my personal circumstances encourage me to buy in the near future, i'll be able to do it with a 4% 15-year fixed. that's kind of cool. i'd rather have the higher rate and not live through a worse depression than the 30s, but I try to keep it positive.
"Anglo-American democracy = Domination of Money"
this is more or less what chuck beard said at the chicago expo 120 years ago or so. not exactly breaking news.
What is the point of living without status and women?
That's the right question, Sebastion. I thought the same thing for thirty years.
I don't live without women but I no longer seek women based on "the official rules" because I finally figured out that it's a lot of work for me and I get sucky sex out of it.
Likewise, why would I seek status?
It's a function of ego and ultimately it's a symptom of insecurity if you're constantly comparing yourself to Joe Schmoe.
It's really just a lot of work (and taxes) to perpetuate... more work and taxes.
Jonestown
They injected the children and babies first.
The flavor aid cyanide form was used mainly for the remainder of the family.
Keep that in mind when you make that reference.
I have a very attractive wife who saved $$$$ as a single woman after grad school. I had no idea until after we were engaged. Despite feeling that I'm sincere, loyal, try hard, etc., I really did luck out.
It was pretty hard to find women in their 20s who saved a lot of money in 2003. I wonder if more women who are now in college will avoid debt and wild spending.
Charles A. Beard - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Beard was also a determined non-interventionist, like all lovers of liberty and believers in self-determinatio
Folks,
Any idea what the DOW dropped 90+ point int the final 10 minutes?
xxxxx
I suspect it was Jas again.
This should serve as a lesson to the staffers who placed the various "protections" into the program, making it completely ineffective. Government is quite predictable.
"Any idea"
not as bad as the final-minute-flush a month ago or so. i was very long that day, it sucked.
Folks,
Any idea what the DOW dropped 90+ point int the final 10 minutes?
\t xxxxx | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 4:14 pm | #
It was probably that rain dance that I did. WTF, SRS still down???
Folks,
Any idea what the DOW dropped 90+ point int the final 10 minutes?
Why was it even up
"OT-trending up in auto finance applications this month.."
cd | 12.17.08 - 4:10 pm | #
cd,
Guy in the office was at the local Honda dealer looking for a used car for his daughter...said the place was packed.
He ended up with a new,leftover 08 for a small premium over a used car...
Chris
couple more before I head to the next thread:
"Every homeowner is getting hurt in some way by this mess. Even the "throwbacks". That's the tragedy of this situation. A few bad apples really did spoil the whole barrel."
Too True.
Oh yeah, and OCDan, thanks for the compliment WAY upthread. early experiences plus spending my early 20s working in the telecom bubble meant my attitude was already adjusted by the time I recovered from the crash and had disposable income again. I did the live rich thing on a small level for a couple years right out of college, didn't do much for me. Then I read Your Money or Your Life shortly after the 2001 crash, and while I never quite bought into the "you can live off long bond interest!" investment advice, I got a needed attitude adjustment re: simple living.
and Nova, glad to hear you've developed better taste/luck in ladies of late. Hope I didn't come off as too much of a militant b*tch back there...
"Why was it even up"
because banks are borrowing at 0.25% and lending plastic credit at 25% APRs. some BnBDs think there might be a viable business model in there somewhere.
broward,
Theirs tons of gold in the ground..
some work the tailings, some look for old river bed, others dredge up the bottom while the majority seek to new discoveries in proven areas...
Heck I found mine in a retail store and I would rather surf in sharky waters than shop..
Chris
Cobradriver | 12.17.08 - 4:17 pm
Check the tires. I bought an 05 in 06. I think it was sitting to long, plus they may have put on older ones. Anyways I had a blow-out at 5K miles.
"Guy in the office was at the local Honda dealer looking for a used car for his daughter...said the place was packed."
If you have a choice, shop for cars the last few days of the year. I've gotten great deals even in good years. There's always somebody who really needs to make a goal or dump some inventory.
Lionel writes:
Anybody else feeling like this is later September all over again, with the Fed dropping a bomb to pump markets, but the market not feeling remotely stable? I would not be shocked if we had a repeat of the drop in October very soon.
You may recall that the last major drop in the market occurred in the first week of October. All through that week, there was unrelenting selling. The week was the first of the 4th quarter.
It has been speculated that the selling occurred due to large requests for redemptions from hedge funds during the 3rd quarter.
It is likely that similar requests have been made during the current quarter, in which case the beginning of the next quarter, that is January 2nd onwards is likely to see similar selling pressure.
The Fed likely knew what was coming in October and now in January, motivating it to act in September and now again this month to preemptively mitigate the unfolding disaster.
Folks,
Any idea what the DOW dropped 90+ point int the final 10 minutes?
xxxxx
Profit taking before the collapse of the American system scheduled for tomorrow
Here is my story about housing. I am disabled, ironically from trying to "help/save" my beloved America. Nonetheless, me and my wife make about 56k a yr. The max. am willing to spent for a house is about 130,000. When the housing boom took off, I declined to partake. Rented, at $475 a month, and saved money. With falling prices we are looking to buy within 3 yrs. The max. am willing to pay/afford will remain at 130k.
I could never live in CA, NYC,...etc. However there are alot of places I can go to live and enjoy life. 56k is slightly about the median avg. Where will the money come from to relight the housing bubble?
Cobra,
We provide technology to big auto portal and have seen increase this month nationwide...positive over oct.& nov. December is good month for industry..
Jan, Feb and Mar..not so good..should be interesting...it's all about credit scores and DTI.....
"Where will the money come from to relight the housing bubble?"
lost | 12.17.08 - 4:22 pm | #
It won't come. Only if the Fed can push through inflation into the wage sector. I honestly don't see that happening very quickly...
Chris
cd,
Is the increase seasonal?
Broward Horne wrote: The culture is toast. The constant harping of "free market" has eroded the true foundation of efficiency and prosperity, which was a population that sacrificed at the short-end to build towards the long-end, i.e. honesty is a function of altruism.
What we have now is a culture that's learned to lie well, both to itself and others, which is why we are here, now, at this point, in this crisis.
Welcome to the consequences and the children of the summer of love and self discovery (aka 1968), "if it feels good do it" no consequences no restriction from those "old fashioned values". This was followed by the 70s open marriage and free love...gotta love that word FREE.
the modification should look like
a. reduce the principal to what the home is currently worth;
b. The lender gets a certificate for 80% of the appreciation on the sale of the property. If the borrower sells and buys a another home the appreciation lien gets carried forward.
The problem is given all the securitization there is no way to re-structure. Congress should past a law that will allow these cram downs (either via eminent domain or creating Chapter XX of the bankruptcy court that will allow an arbitration panel to do it).
for some reason I am reminded of
"freedoms another word for nothing else to loose"
$1.05
At 0 percent interest will it be impossible for anyone to retire? Look at calpers it was counting on returns of 8% to finance future retirees. With the ten year at 2% how much more do they need to finance their retirement structure? (Not saying it was all in the ten year to begin with). If California is mandated to make up the difference how where does it get the difference? Look at Detroit can those companies finance their pensions? Take that example for yourself how much more money do you need to save to finance your retirement at this rate of return?
tg is a born & bred dope in a writes:
If California is mandated to make up the difference how where does it get the difference?
Can't they just reduce the amount they pay out to the retirees to avoid draining the fund to zero?
rebear-yes...december always a good month for car sales...go figure..
then again after tax money starts filtering in..
NADA convention is in New orleans this year, during mardi gras time and right now is30% down on registration...I see it going lower...
"Can't they just reduce the amount they pay out to the retirees"
Let's start with suspending the cop and guard pensions and go from there
Many Japanese undertook the carry trade by borrowing Yen. How can we ordinary American Joes do a carry trade with the U.S. dollar? Just looking to make some spare change; every little bit helps. Thanks, in advance, for any tips.
Ah, but it has helped delay price discovery in the housing market, thus keeping house unaffordable and crooked banks in business, so it must be a success!
Cops and firefighter pensions may be the last plan we want to reduce. However, if my reasoning is correct our taxes need to go up significantly. Frying pan meet fire.
Another government social program. They are everywhere you look. If they keep this up, I am going to take a long position on socialism!
Okrar, thank you for calling it a huge transfer of wealth.
Mission Accomplished!
I saw Sheila on CSPAN today, someone asked her about loan mods, she said they are hard because investors won't allow a reduction in principle.
This comment thread makes me weep. It reads worse than any overnight thread of six months ago. I couldn't believe y'all were sober and yet, for the most part, it took place during working hours.
You flung poo at each other all through this thread. How will we ever get through this troubled period if this is how we act, in public, at the very beginning of this crisis.
I miss Tanta so very very much.