Feckless Ness: Could you link some specific writings by Buckminster Fuller? I tried to look but all I could find was stuff on his domes and automobile experiments.
"Ever since the two Bear Stearns hedge funds defaulted 17 months ago triggering a global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been busy putting out one fire after another. Fed chief Ben Bernanke has slashed interest rates to .25 per cent, handed out billions in emergency funding to teetering insurance companies and mortgage lenders, and provided $8.3 trillion in loan guarantees to keep the financial system from collapsing."
He uses the events of this week to tie the whole story together.
Dealers familiar with the matter said they started pulling money from the "cash management account" because of fears that Chrysler's auto operations could be forced to file for bankruptcy.
Sounds rational to me. He who panics first panics best. This is like a run on a bank.
They are in a serious catch-22 here...if they pull the plug on dealer flooring then the dealers will no longer take their crappy cars, and since NO BANK will floor any new Chrysler accounts where will these dealers go? (out of business?)
Don't the UAW workers wind up with 95% of their pay anyway? The company pays laid off workers a stipend that, together with unemployment payments, equals 95% of their union wages.
Also several threads down there was a post on the Madoff mess which linked to an article about how people who got out years ago might be sucked in and new investors in funds that got in and out years ago might get sucked in on the idea that the lucky earlier types should not be winners to the present investors' losings.
I don't think that it is possible to resolve this steaming mass of potential lawsuits.
crispy&cole writes: \tThey are in a serious catch-22 here...if they pull the plug on dealer flooring then the dealers will no longer take their crappy cars, and since NO BANK will floor any new Chrysler accounts where will these dealers go? (out of business?) crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 5:30 pm --- These dealers will go out of business. The Detroit Three, The Japanese Four, et al. Dealerships are closing left and right, and each tougher month increases the closings.
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., the biggest automaker in the U.S. and Mexico, increased production of $12,625 Chevrolet Aveos south of the border while seeking a bailout to keep domestic plants from closing.
These dealers will go out of business. The Detroit Three, The Japanese Four, et al.
Dealerships are closing left and right, and each tougher month increases the closings.
I believe I read that recently that either Costco or Sam's Clubs had tried to market automobiles at their stores.
So dealers won't be necessary anyway, unless something breaks on the car.
~~
Hie thee to the library, mykillk! Quickly, while it still be free!
Don't worry, we will be here for you--we do our strongest business in Depressions. Though depending on what happens to tax revenues you may have to be content with 56K internet speeds and the latest bestsellers of 2004...sigh
Harold G writes: \tI believe I read that recently that either Costco or Sam's Clubs had tried to market automobiles at their stores.
So dealers won't be necessary anyway, unless something breaks on the car. Harold G | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 5:37 pm --- Just more deflation and unemployment, and then you have the worry about the devil in the details (Warranty, Rebates, etc).
The bigger concern isfinancing these purchases. Unless you are rock solid on your credit reports and have a relationship with your financier, you aren't getting a car without a large up-front payment. Costco and/or Sam's cannot do squat unless they want you on their books, and my money is that they won't want you to give you money for 36+ months. The dealership model may be dated, but the unlying problems plaguing it will go to wherever new cars are sold.
People arent going to buy anything more than food and water the coming year. Total shut down of the consumer economy
That's just not true.
I'm still playing pool @50cents/game, although I found two places with free pool on Mon and Tues afternoons. Tonight I'm doing (irony of ironies) "Ladies Night" at Hannah's so I'll probably spend $5 or so. Luckily, I've gotten so good at pool that I rarely pay if I can find a willing sucker.
Asun writes:
So market up 1000 points tomorrow? Or do we get circuit breaker downwards? Please no more sideways nothingburger.
Asun | 12.17.08 - 5:19 pm | #
Actually, in a sane world, something like this closing should/would trigger the circuit breakers.
THIS IS HUGENORMOUS NEWS. We are talking about one of the Big3 closing for a month.
That's not chump change, in terms of workers.
Sadly, I am sure the market will shrug it off and go up 250.
Ironically, everyone says the market is forward thinking.
General Motors Corp., the biggest automaker in the U.S. and Mexico, increased production of $12,625 Chevrolet Aveos south of the border while seeking a bailout to keep domestic plants from closing.
If you sell the cars in South America but the global demand isn't great enough to justify two factories, you keep the single factory in Mexico. Credit the stiff tariffs on American-made vehicles in response to the US sugar quotas.
With what my brother just paid for a 3/4 ton diesel he can afford to pay me to do any needed repairs... Cobradriver | 12.17.08 - 5:30 pm | #
I'm wondering about continued parts availability, particularly on new models. Maybe dryfly can confirm, but my gut feel is that most parts production goes to the assy lines early-on, until later when failure models predict a market opening up for spares.
Tyler writes: When everything is going to hell, don't blame deadbeat borrowers...just blame Bush. \t Tyler | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 5:38 pm ----- Does your "deadbeat borrowers" tag cover AIG, C, BAC, GS, GE, AXP, GM, F, and any one else who leveraged more than they could afford? Does it only cover the borrowers who haven't gotten to suck up free goodies at the fund bowl? Does it just cover your fellow man who may like what you got but doesn't have it?
Dealers who get it will downsize new car flooring and emphasize used..
I mentioned this here last summer in the middle of the oil mess that if someone could buy all the suv trades for small cars at way below wholesale they would be able to hold some gross on the vehicles later when oil comes down....where is sandys desert car lot structure...
Well, since Chrysler represents 60% of my sales, it looks like it will be a very long, slow January. I guess I have to figure out what to do with all of these extra workers that I'm going to have standing around.
It's not just Chrysler that's getting hit. The tier 1s and 2s are going to take a hit as well.
I don't think that it is possible to resolve this steaming mass of potential lawsuits.
Don't worry. They will all be resolved by well paid lawyers who take a very long time and charge a high hourly rate. This is just an excellent opportunity for lawyers.
Speaking of the big 3, I heard on Bloomberg today that GM will not "sponsor" the NY Yankees next year. But they're still negotiating with the Mets. And they are going to continue to sponsor somewhere around a dozen other pro baseball teams next year. Unless they run out of money in two weeks like they said they would, I guess.
Barley writes:
Nemo - In BK the pensions go too, no?
I mean they are picked up by Uncle Sam, are they?
There is the PBGC, but they only guarantee a pension of up to 54k/year and no healthcare, so many of the UAW members would be hit in the head with a huge dose of reality.
I don't want God's help. I want my community to wake up and then we all start figuring out ways to keep everyone warm and fed.
My worst case scenario involves everyone staying isolated and alone. The longer they do the more damage that will have to be overcome before stabilization occurs.
Think about large groups of demographically different people helping each other. Followed by the realization the bonds of community are the secrets to an enjoyable life. Change will happen if enough people choose this path. There's my hope for change.
Eric, if you're going to keep crying for the damned things all the time, why not just sell them and get it over with? MLM | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 5:54 pm | #
...My worst case scenario involves everyone staying isolated and alone. The longer they do the more damage that will have to be overcome before stabilization occurs.
You haven't met my neighbors. I would really appreciate it if they would leave me alone and stay isolated.
Pooor idle fans. But isn't Idol relatively cheap to do?
Hah, just interview fewer idiots in fewer places.
May all the damn reality shows disappear. Here's a reality show possibility: the contestants really get stranded in the middle of nowhere because there isn't enough money to get them home!
Anonymous writes:
All 3 US auto companies should shut down all production until Jan 20 ,2009.
Nay. They should be hiring like crazy. With enough workers on the payroll, they can extort a bailout from the government. Too big to fail is the new and only viable business strategy.
@LawyerLiz
California Stopped all capital projects to fund essential public services due to lack of interest in their bonds (That is what I picked up from the previous threads)
So I was browsing the opinions forum at my (old--graduated this year) California State university, and students are complaining that their financial aid won't be deposited until the day classes start so they can't buy their books online to save money. My sorrow for the tardiness of their free money is lacking...
Democratic legislative leaders are planning to use a series of complex legal maneuvers to raise Californians' gas, sales and income taxes over the objection of Republican lawmakers, who have been able to block such proposals in the past.
Under the Democrats' plan, sales taxes would increase by three-fourths of a cent. Gas taxes would go up by 13.5 cents per gallon. And a surcharge of 2.5% would be added to income taxes.
California budget crisis spurs freeze on funds for schools, roads
There would also be new taxes aimed at oil companies.
The proposal, described by Capitol insiders who were briefed on it, will be voted on in the Senate and Assembly tonight. It is part of an $18-billion package of fee and tax hikes and spending cuts intended to address a budget deficit that is projected to grow to nearly $42 billion through mid-2010.
Holding dollar denominated assets (Treasuries) can't be leading to a very comfortable feeling. Gotta wonder if actions like this by Ben might lead some some protectionism.
Democratic legislative leaders are planning to use a series of complex legal maneuvers to raise Californians' gas, sales and income taxes over the objection of Republican lawmakers, who have been able to block such proposals in the past.
My sorrow for the tardiness of their free money is lacking...
Actually, I have a big problem with this practice. One, many loans accrue interest when they're dispersed to the school, not when they're made available to the student. Second, if schools are doing it to protect their own bookstores (some in-house bookstores will allow you pre-purchase from your aid), then the practice is coercive. Finally, if the delay is because the state doesn't have the money, we're all screwed.
I got a contract from an midwestern guy....was a staticccy phone line. sounded like putz.
i've got 350,000 cars out here now, at $10 bucks a month. New mexico sand is perfect.
cd,
The current Dodge platform is running the same common rail isb from 03/04. Most major parts are common back a few years. We are still buying Cummins so I don't see them disappearing real soon. The aftermarket is also really deep for these vehicles. Now oddball body and trim,yep that could be a problem. I told em just don't crash it.
"The temporary closures will affect about 46,000 workers in the United States alone. Those employees will get state unemployment benefits and supplemental payments from the company, according to ABC News."
Anybody who thinks we are close to the end of this quagmire is seriously loony.
Right from a news article on yahoo
" Under scenarios envisioned by Obama's economic team, a $600 billion package would satisfy the president-elect's jobs goal by the first quarter of 2011, but would leave an unemployment rate of 8 percent two years from now. The team believes that to put unemployment on a downward trajectory, with a goal of 7.5 percent or less over two years, would require a stimulus package of about $850 billion. That would generate about 3.2 million jobs by the first quarter of 2011. The advisers say they agree with economic forecasts that predict that without a government infusion unemployment will rise above 9 percent and not begin to come down until 2011." So even with almost a Trillion in stimulus the expectation is still 8% unemployment two years from now!! You can throw that second half recovery theory out the door, unless we're talking about second half of the century.
It is part of an $18-billion package of fee and tax hikes and spending cuts intended to address a budget deficit that is projected to grow to nearly $42 billion through mid-2010.
+++++
What is CA spending all of this money on?
Every company out there is laying off people and slimming down their expenses. How many layoffs has CA announced yet?
Basel Too: I think it has more to do with the budget than the school trying to protect its bookstore. We outsource our campus bookstore to Barnes and Noble anyway...
"So Mr. Jones, you are 72, a prior heart condition, high blood pressure, and require glasses. You have a chronic skin condition and you broke your leg last year. Lets see. Okay you semi-annual premium is $7500.00 and we will need 2 quarters or $15,000 to start the policy. And I'm sorry we won't be able to insure your wife. Will that be cash check or credit card"
Feckless Nesswrites: \tFrom the L.A. Times: Democratic legislative leaders are planning to use a series of complex legal maneuvers to raise Californians' gas, sales and income taxes over the objection of Republican lawmakers, who have been able to block such proposals in the past. Under the Democrats' plan, sales taxes would increase by three-fourths of a cent. Gas taxes would go up by 13.5 cents per gallon. And a surcharge of 2.5% would be added to income taxes. Feckless Ness | 12.17.08 - 6:00 pm ---- Honestly instead of showing the tax hikes, can we see the spending cuts? If Gax tax is going up 13.5 cents/gallon, where is the 26 cents/dollar spending cuts? While I think they should've been preparing for famine while there was plenty of feast, I think this idea of increasing taxes when everything in CA is expense is just down right daranged...
What are CA folks going to do as this shindig gets worse?
Evidence of why California is screwed. This is a muni bond. Jackpot if they actually call in 10 weeks. Regardless at 9.4% double tax free who cares? TEJON RANCH CALIF PUB FACS FIN Face 5.620Curr Yield 9.400Price 62.70Call date 3/1/2009Call price 103.00
The state's top three financial officials voted unanimously today to freeze $3.8 billion in financing on road, levee, school and housing construction projects throughout California in the most drastic fallout yet from the state's cash crisis.
Among the efforts that will be idled or postponed are a carpool lane on the 405 Freeway between the 10 and 101 freeways and $373 million in repairs and overcrowding relief for Southern California schools, including emergency repairs at nine Los Angeles Unified School District high schools and five Compton schools, according to lists compiled by state agencies.
State Democrats plan to increase taxes
The financing moratorium also imperils the construction or relocation of California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection stations throughout forested areas; a new veterans home serving western and northern Los Angeles and Ventura counties; a career center and technical education complex for a school for the deaf in Riverside; and a Cal State University library in Monterey Bay.
The delay in one project, an appeals courthouse in Santa Ana now under construction, could leave the judges homeless when the lease of their current court runs out in the spring, a court official told the board. The court had planned to be in its new building by then.
More than 2,000 other projects include park improvements, environmental restoration and repairs to state prisons.
This and previous article are on the LA Times homepage now.
The holiday timing will make for great photo-op's.
But will the man on the street interviews be performed on the cold hard asphalt or the warm jobs bank rooms next to the big screen plasma and union dues jars?
OT: Regarding the dollar, I think some posters here said the dollar would remain strong as long as deleveraging continued.
Well, recently the dollar has been falling (euro was $1.28 not too long ago, now $1.43) and gold has strengthened. Could the dollar already be resuming its decline?
meanwhile they're trying to ramp up production in china. chrysler asia head Murtaugh in talks with Great Wall Motors since Chery deal finally imploded. Will bailout $ be used to build Chrysler small cars in China instead?
Democratic legislative leaders are planning to use a series of complex legal maneuvers to raise Californians' gas, sales and income taxes over the objection of Republican lawmakers, who have been able to block such proposals in the past. Under the Democrats' plan, sales taxes would increase by three-fourths of a cent. Gas taxes would go up by 13.5 cents per gallon.
What the hell? Don't Democrats know that these are the most regressive taxes of them all? I guess CA state employees are poor...
I'm gonna get me one of them automalls. Cart racing in the parking lot, rent out the service bays to DIYers, showroom as classic vehicle storage, back lot motorhome hook ups. I'm thinking Cars 101 in Oxnard. <a href=http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=oxnard&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=45.8712,101.162109&ie=UTF8&ll=34.222045,-119.152163&spn=0.002941,0.006174&t=h&z=18>here</a>
"Those employees will get state unemployment benefits and supplemental payments from the company, according to ABC News." ---- Ok, so if I have this right, they will get 95% of their pay from the UAW, will get additional compensation from Chrysler itself, and they will still get state unemployment benefits???? Unbelievable
OT: Regarding the dollar, I think some posters here said the dollar would remain strong as long as deleveraging continued.
Well, recently the dollar has been falling (euro was $1.28 not too long ago, now $1.43) and gold has strengthened. Could the dollar already be resuming its decline? Rupert | 12.17.08 - 6:10 pm | #
Deleveraging will most likely start again in January with the next round of hedge fund redemptions.
DETROIT, Dec 17 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) has suspended major work on the $370-million Flint, Michigan, engine plant where it plans to build a new small engine key to central to its effort to reinvent itself as a maker of fuel-efficient and all-electric cars.
The move comes as the Bush administration weighs a request for emergency loans for GM and its smaller rival Chrysler LLC. GM has said it would run short of cash by January without a federal bailout.
GM spokeswoman Sharon Basel said Wednesday GM had decided to suspend construction work on the plant as its cash crunch worsened. She said GM anticipated that the suspension would be temporary.
The new plant, being built next to an existing engine plant in Flint, is scheduled to build a turbocharged 1.4-liter engine for the Chevrolet Cruze small car and another version of the engine to provide backup power to the all-electric Chevrolet Volt.
"It's on a temporary hold, and what that means is that we're not going to be committing to any cash outlays for structural steel or other things," Basel said. "In the last month, things became extremely dire."
GM and union officials have said that the new engine plant would save jobs for 300 United Auto Workers-represented workers whose positions would otherwise have been eliminated.
Basel said there had been no change to GM's commitment to push ahead with the Volt for a launch in 2010. "There is no impact on the start of production," she said.
GM Chief Executive Rick Wagoner, who faced calls for his resignation during the debate on an auto bailout package in Congress, attended a ribbon-cutting event in late September to mark the start of construction on the new plant in Flint.
The Volt represents the centerpiece of GM's effort to break a costly association with gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs. (Reporting by Kevin Krolicki, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)
California's WARN law requires certain companies with more than 75 employees to provide 60 days advance notice of a plant closing or mass layoff involving 50 or more employees.
"GM and union officials have said that the new engine plant would save jobs for 300 United Auto Workers-represented workers whose positions would otherwise have been eliminated."
Well, the position would have been eliminated, but we still would have paid the worker to hang out in the jobs bank each day. We're not heartless here in Michigan.
"Rupert writes: OT: Regarding the dollar, I think some posters here said the dollar would remain strong as long as deleveraging continued.
Well, that was a pretty dumb thing to say..."
Except that all the data out there supports this theory. Hedge fund redemptions at Citadel and a host of other funds frozen due to the Madoff scandal, market up, ABX indexes tightening, market being flooded with cash ALL support the above thesis.
"What are CA folks going to do as this shindig gets worse?"
Move to another state. Stands to reason it'll only get worse. The California Legislature knows only how to spend - absolutely NO fiscal responsibility. A balanced state budget doesn't also include a "line of credit" (read: loan)
Feckless Ness writes: \tDuck and cover. Feckless Ness | 12.17.08 - 6:14 pm ------ Duck and cover from what? Sounds like a great way to protect yourself from a raging lava flow... /sarcasm Seriously, who in CA is actually benefitting from that train wreck besides the Super Rich? The poor? What does the "average" CA folk think about this ballooning 40+ billion USD shortfall?
What are CA folks going to do as this shindig gets worse?
yagij | 12.17.08 - 6:06 pm | #
The folk in Sacramento don't know it yet but we will be saying no. They don't understand that there are no new taxes to take from us. We are on the verge of a tax strike. Their decades of ignoring the illegal immigrant problem has already established a viable underground economy. The other thing is that there are several major corps just itching for any excuse to bail.
That Barton Fink Feeling writes: Put their botox and silicone on Craigslist? \t That Barton Fink Feeling | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 6:17 pm ------ Nope. Saw a WSJ article talking about the Rich cutting nannies and cleaning crews before thinking about refusing the 'Tox Fix.
...as I said on a recent thread, in a more lighthearted (and ignorant) mood. Notwithstanding Dana Perino's chiding at the daily press briefing, the silence from The White House is deafening.
So is the press, asleep at the switch. What I'm NOT reading in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal is stunning; as is too often the case, I'll have to wait for a book to tell me what really happened.
Rob Dawgwrites: The folk in Sacramento don't know it yet but we will be saying no. They don't understand that there are no new taxes to take from us. We are on the verge of a tax strike. Their decades of ignoring the illegal immigrant problem has already established a viable underground economy. Rob Dawg | 12.17.08 - 6:20 pm ---- Sht! How do you stinkin' CA folk do it? You had your gold rushes. You had your tech booms. Now, you are leading the way through the establishment of a state-wide shadow economy which avoids the tax man to the best of your ability! Is it in the water down there? How the bloody Hll do you guys stay on the bleeding edge of progress?
That Barton Fink Feelingwrites: \tThis could get bad. \t That Barton Fink Feeling | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 6:22 pm --- Like actually taking care of their children and spending a vacation within the borders of the continental US? Yeah, GDII is definitely on its way...
I guess the State of Cali is the canary in the coal mine.
What form would the tax strike take? lawyerliz | 12.17.08 - 6:23 pm | #
I can think of several ways. Increase in internet purchases, Indian nations getting into the gasoline business, loopholes, reduced purchases, transfering investments and investment vehicles out of state, co-ops, on and on.
i guess GM won't need to make small engines for the Cruze since they just openend a new factory in Shenyang to mass produce the cruze, intended for the chinese domestic market, of course...
You're relatively safe from The System if you're rich or you own nothing. It's only if you're in the middle that you can be co-erced into paying more money and effort to try and salvage your remaining assets.
I own nothing now.
I haven't tested out free health care from the ER yet a la illegal aliens but it's in my thoughts now.
Hey liz, thanks for your posts earlier BTW. I appreciate your help. I'm off to work myself so I can bring sunshine and happiness to all the masses LOL...My customers just love Conjures updates!
Calif is raising taxes on vehicle registration for sure..expect this month to be better than coming months for auto's..this will crimp sales even more...sales tax going up will add to it...
Car sales will slightly revive in 2009 fall or spring 2010...
btw-auto loans are available all day just not to credit criminals...
i love this deflation talk. Just today I got two notices= my health insurance went up 6% and ADT increased by 5%.
crazyvermonter | 12.17.08 - 6:33 pm | #
We will most likely have inflation in what we need (food, housing, healthcare) and deflation in what we want (housing, automobiles, luxury goods, 401k plan).
"What does the "average" CA folk think about this ballooning 40+ billion USD shortfall?"
The pols in Cali have perfected the art of "divide and conquer" to perfection. You have a large population which gets to vote for all the goodies, but the brunt of the taxes are carried by a much smaller percentage. They also play regionalism game very well - take for e.g. the choo choo that was approved last month - they gerrymandered the right of way to include such exciting destinations as Fresno to pull in just enough votes (you'll all have "jobs") to get required 2/3 to pass. The pols always claim that the "polls prove people want these services" but seriously people always want stuff until you tell them waht it costs.
Finally, last but should be first - government employee unions and the pension benefits. This has been a ferquently discussed topic, but you need to understand how much power the unions have in getting people elected in Cali. In local elections they often make or break the candidates. And the pensions are beyond belief - 103% of highest salary with eligibility as early as 50 plus COLAs! In effect you have people making deficit decsions who are personally immune from the consequences. And when you try to take them on, it gets ugly - even the Big Guy found out two years ago when all his anti-union propos were crushed. They hide behind cardboard cutouts of buff firefighters and cops to protect Caltrans and prison shrinks who make $250K and up.
The biggest mistake Cali ever made was to allow government employees to unionize. They own the State.
speaking from the very soggy southwest coastal border of California i can tell you that we don't really think about Sacramento's finances much at all. The California Republic lives by contrary reality. If you're deep in debt and can't pay bills, borrow more. It's all make believe anyway, right? The most important thing is the rain will pass and tomorrow we'll have a gorgeous red and pink sunset on the Pacific again!
"We will most likely have inflation in what we need (food, housing, healthcare) and deflation in what we want (housing, automobiles, luxury goods, 401k plan).
Pissed Off In California | 12.17.08 - 6:36 pm | # "
Few of the ever-mounting unemployed will have health insurance, of course.
Whether you think we can afford it or not, health care reform is coming.
The great formerly-insured masses won't willingly go broke over a gall bladder operation for the sake of the free market.
NEW YORKThe International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA) today announced that it will launch a CDS auction protocol to facilitate the settlement of credit derivatives trades referencing Ecuador, the South American country that is in default for the second time this decade. The 2008 Ecuador CDS Protocol will be the first protocol published by ISDA in regards to the settlement of a sovereign credit event
I think of this economic situation as an inexperienced new pilot flying an airplane that he's not quite familiar with into a box canyon in bad weather with the sun about to set and the temperature dropping rapidly. There is no way out and IS going to end badly. Unfortunately all of us are passengers.
Note Motorola's announcement today that they are suspending 401k matching. As this trend builds it sure takes a lot of money (automatic money) out of the stock markets.
There may well be waste in California gov't, and unions may well be full of evil orcs.
And the State Chamber of Commerce may well be staffed with broad-shouldered stalwarts whose only thought is to make the state a better place for all Californians through free enterprise.
That said, when I hear that California is 46th out of 50 states on public school spending for pupil, I have to think the whole story's not being told.
President-elect Barack Obama plans to name Mary Schapiro, chief executive officer of the Financial Services Regulatory Authority, to be chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, people familiar with the selection said.
Stop teasin with that dollar chart. I get palpatation thinking about that on a 30year chart.
If it look's like that by friday, I'll be vaca'in with Obama in Lanikai
Ever since the two Bear Stearns hedge funds defaulted 17 months ago triggering a global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been busy putting out one fire after another.
I have never been impressed by the efforts of a firefighter who later is discovered to be the arsonist who started the conflagration, or the efforts of a journalist intentionally or unintentially missing the real cause of the disaster.
(rain today forcing me to use the full-time 4 wheel rant rover).
Looks like the wheels are coming off the schedenfreudevagen:
Deutsche Bank, Germany's top lender, said it had chosen not to exercise a "call option" on a subordinated bond worth 1bn (£930bn), breaking an iron-fast code in the credit markets. The bank's share price fell 7pc in Frankfurt, and the default insurance on the company's debt surged. "This has never happened before," said Willem Sels, a credit strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort. "Banks have never wanted to do it because it upsets investors and could mean that future funding will be hit." Ambrose
The Central Bank allowed a devaluation of the ruble for the second time this week on Wednesday, allowing it to lose almost 1.4 percent of its value against the currency basket, its biggest devaluation in three months. While the ruble plummeted against the euro, it lost little against the dollar, which sank on news of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the United States.
Its going to come to cutting pensions....eventually, in CA, and everywhere else. CALPERS, CALSTERS will never be able to keep up with payouts to retirees, let alone active employees.
Start with the prisons ...
mmckinl | 12.17.08 - 6:44 pm | #
"The average yearly cost of keeping an inmate in prison jumped $9,125 in last five years to $44,165, according to figures from the legislature's budget office."
The California prison system is the leading budget expenditure. Think about that and the the real societal cost of being tough on crime and the farcical war on drugs.
"Calif is raising taxes on vehicle registration for sure..expect this month to be better than coming months for auto's..this will crimp sales even more...sales tax going up will add to it..."
Senior exec in our local SoCal city reports that it received zip from the state last month for its share of reg fees - that's right zip. "Honey, I'm home ...."
We are going to have to learn to live with less of everything.
I think it was Kunstler a few ago that said, our current lifestyle is not affordable (for the country, as a whole).
He was and is spot on.
We are not just bloated, but overbloated because of debt.
With all that debt shedding and values declining, contraction is inevitable.
Look, I have no problem with trying to make things easier, esp. for those with disabilities (call them what they are, not challenges), but the cost for some of this special treatment is no longer affordable. I am ref. the post above regarding the Deaf center or whatever it was.
We are going to have to learn to actually help one another, not rely on stuff and buildings to do it for us.
Novel concept. If we don't get this part of it right, we are in serious trouble.
If they go bankrupt, only the old warranties will be breeched. Any cars sold with a warranty after the filing date will have a sound contract unaffected by the bankruptcy ruling.
mmckinl would rather lick the toes of the UAW, the Ford scions, and the Cerberus fat cats than acknowledge the honest American workers organized by Toyota, a public company also traded on the NYSE.
He's right about the end of happy consumerism and happy motoring.
And, he's wisely called for infrastructure spending on rail and urban infill rather than more exurban hypertrophism.
I even like his nasty wit; see him this week on what will happen "when the supply of Cheez Whiz and Pepsi runs out."
But aren't you in the least put off by his excitement to get to the Thunderdome? Old Wild Bill's moral code is deeply retributive; his futurism has more than a foot in the puritan past.
Deutsche Bank AG part of the Bankster Clearing House LLC Mob ... The Merry Go Round of financial shenanigans ....
Name \tPrimary Company\tAge
James Dimon\t\tJPMorgan Chase & Co\t
Victor Menezes\t\tCitigroup, Inc.\t
Norman Bobins\t\tLaSalle Bank National
Kenneth Lewis\t\tBank of America
Thomas Renyi\t\tDPM Mellon\t
Juergen Fitschen\tDeutsche Bank AG
Youssef Nasr\t\tHSBC Holdings plc\t
William Harrison Jr.\tMerck & Co. Inc.\t
Richard Kovacevich\tWells Fargo & Company\t
Martin Glynn\t\tMF Global Ltd
Richard Davis\t\tUS Bancorp
"That said, when I hear that California is 46th out of 50 states on public school spending for pupil, I have to think the whole story's not being told."
Objective reference cite pls?
60+% of my property taxes (plus x amount of income, etc. taxes) goes to my local school district. (2002 purchase). No one gets elected to the Board without union endorsement, and it is at the bottom of the barrel in terms of performance.
The California prison system is the leading budget expenditure. Think about that and the the real societal cost of being tough on crime and the farcical war on drugs.
I thought CA ended the war on drugs by making pot available to anyone with a phony ailment? If they taxed the pot sales a little more, they might close this budget gap.
Maybe CA could outsource the running of their prison system like many other states do?
And of course end the windfall government pension system also.
Comrade V writes:
You have a large population which gets to vote for all the goodies, but the brunt of the taxes are carried by a much smaller percentage.
According to The Economist, half of the state income taxes in California are paid by 144,000 wealthy individuals.
But aren't you in the least put off by his excitement to get to the Thunderdome? Old Wild Bill's moral code is deeply retributive; his futurism has more than a foot in the puritan past.
That Barton Fink Feeling | 12.17.08 - 6:56 pm | #
I see where you are coming from. It would be hard for me to understand his speed on this, except to say the sooner we get to the bottom, maybe the faster we can rebuild.
You have to pick a side. Labor or capital. If you haven't been paying attention labor has gotten the shit kicked out of it and the UAW is the life support.
The UAW contracts need to be looked at but the politics behind the auto bailout are sickening if you consider what the consequences are for the battle being waged.
If you still labor under the onus of believing in the American dream then nothing I can write will change your mind. We all want to be in charge and powerful. The problem is the ranks of the wealthy is full and they are no longer accepting applications.
Dear worker.. please go home.. we'll call you -
Boy.. talk about road rash..
Huzzah.. 3 headed ponies for everyone!
Don't worry.
It is all priced in already.
So market up 1000 points tomorrow? Or do we get circuit breaker downwards? Please no more sideways nothingburger.
Bummer for the workers. What does the union have to say?
So what does a three heacded guillotine look like? Does it require 3 executioners?
Do they still get paid?
Go long sleds!
So what does a three heacded guillotine look like? Does it require 3 executioners?
Exit
There is only one head left. The other two were eaten by the remaining one.
In related news J.D. Powers just significantly upgraded American autos for overall quality ratings. [kidding]
Yes, any word on compensation to the workers?
I heard the FDIC guarantees all deposits in the UAW job bank..
;p
Feckless Ness: Could you link some specific writings by Buckminster Fuller? I tried to look but all I could find was stuff on his domes and automobile experiments.
In other words, the only part left from the Chrysler collapse will be the dealer network to sell Chinese vehicles.
Good time to learn Mandarin.
Cordially,
Килгор Траут
This new article by Mike Whitney is an impressive introduction/summary of the current funancial crisis:
Mike Whitney: Bernanke's Fatal Flaw
"Ever since the two Bear Stearns hedge funds defaulted 17 months ago triggering a global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been busy putting out one fire after another. Fed chief Ben Bernanke has slashed interest rates to .25 per cent, handed out billions in emergency funding to teetering insurance companies and mortgage lenders, and provided $8.3 trillion in loan guarantees to keep the financial system from collapsing."
He uses the events of this week to tie the whole story together.
We wish you a Cerebrus Christmas
We wish you a Cerebrus Christmas,
We wish you a Cerebrus Christmas,
And a bailout new year!
Asun,
The equity markets' boring stories grow tiresome...
If bucky is any example, the real fun is starting in the currency markets...
dollar
Nice twist...taking it in all three a**holes at once at the hands of its own dealers, running away like wharf rats before a hurricane.
And why would any consumer want to buy one of their cars???
cd
Hie thee to the library, mykillk! Quickly, while it still be free!
Okay, time to hit that big red button.
The one marked Pandemonium
You mean that isn't the "EASY" button?
Dealers familiar with the matter said they started pulling money from the "cash management account" because of fears that Chrysler's auto operations could be forced to file for bankruptcy.
Sounds rational to me. He who panics first panics best. This is like a run on a bank.
Those are union jobs, right? So they surely get paid.
citizen energycon - someone should photoshop the "easy" button to say "easing"
...or like homeowners maxing out the HELOC before having it snatched away.
energyecon -
Going to be very interesting to see what happens at the 200 dma on that chart. What a brutal environment.
BTW, you got a very rare lol from me for your comment to c&c last thread. Thanks.
I'd like to be running for high ground, but where is it?
Its happening right now.
The collapse of the capitalist system.
People arent going to buy anything more than food and water the coming year. Total shut down of the consumer economy.
They are in a serious catch-22 here...if they pull the plug on dealer flooring then the dealers will no longer take their crappy cars, and since NO BANK will floor any new Chrysler accounts where will these dealers go? (out of business?)
Are the suppliers union as well?
We need a Jobs Bank Czar !
"And why would any consumer want to buy one of their cars???"
cd
Circling the Drain | 12.17.08 - 5:25 pm | #
With what my brother just paid for a 3/4 ton diesel he can afford to pay me to do any needed repairs...
I had to ask him if he used a gun when he told me what he was out the door for.
Chris
Don't the UAW workers wind up with 95% of their pay anyway? The company pays laid off workers a stipend that, together with unemployment payments, equals 95% of their union wages.
They'll be fine for the month.
It's just one fire - like a tire fire.
Why keep making something if no one's buying?
AIG continues to bleed:
"may have to absorb almost $30 billion more..."
AIG Writedowns May Rise $30 Billion on European Swaps (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Bush bailout in the AM. Market up. Shorts killed.
Union guys get looooooong holiday. Exec's get their retention ponies.
Everybody happy now???
Well, that does it.
I'm headed to the bank to begin the process of cashing out my accounts. Cash only. It's my new economic plan.
It's time.
I'd like to be running for high ground, but where is it?
~~~
Buy a yacht , everybody's doing it ...
The wind and waves will swamp your dinghy ...
Also several threads down there was a post on the Madoff mess which linked to an article about how people who got out years ago might be sucked in and new investors in funds that got in and out years ago might get sucked in on the idea that the lucky earlier types should not be winners to the present investors' losings.
I don't think that it is possible to resolve this steaming mass of potential lawsuits.
It is a good time to buy them Fords before they become antiques
The downward spiral accelerates into a free fall while the dogmatic populists obstruct.
Which branch will you be visiting?
Not to make you worry while you're walking home loaded with cash, I'm just curious
mykillk, try utopia or oblivion for some good bucky fuller action...
crispy&cole writes:
\tThey are in a serious catch-22 here...if they pull the plug on dealer flooring then the dealers will no longer take their crappy cars, and since NO BANK will floor any new Chrysler accounts where will these dealers go? (out of business?)
crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 5:30 pm
---
These dealers will go out of business. The Detroit Three, The Japanese Four, et al.
Dealerships are closing left and right, and each tougher month increases the closings.
Waitin' for the 30 year to flat line, then I'll refinance everything.
So market up 1000 points tomorrow?
Of course! Think of the huge increase in profits with all that labor cost eliminated.
The downward spiral accelerates into a free fall while the dogmatic populists obstruct.
~~~~
You mean Republicans my friend ...
I'm not sure what the fuss is about...,
The public school system, universities and Congress are shut down for the next few weeks. They do it every year and everything turns out fine.
Alas, the hub gets everything sick!!
No yachts or dingies for me.
Which reminds me of another era:
SNL Archives | Impression
It's Chrysmas in Detroit
Wrong thread
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., the biggest automaker in the U.S. and Mexico, increased production of $12,625 Chevrolet Aveos south of the border while seeking a bailout to keep domestic plants from closing.
Top Financial News refer=home
Sounds like mothballs for more of Detroit.
Wonder if Mexico plants use same suppliers as US. Just thinking about the COD thing playing out.
yagij writes:
These dealers will go out of business. The Detroit Three, The Japanese Four, et al.
Dealerships are closing left and right, and each tougher month increases the closings.
I believe I read that recently that either Costco or Sam's Clubs had tried to market automobiles at their stores.
So dealers won't be necessary anyway, unless something breaks on the car.
~~
Hie thee to the library, mykillk! Quickly, while it still be free!
Don't worry, we will be here for you--we do our strongest business in Depressions. Though depending on what happens to tax revenues you may have to be content with 56K internet speeds and the latest bestsellers of 2004...sigh
Its happening right now. The collapse of the capitalist system.
No, it's the collapse of thieving, irresponsible, unsustainable capitalism. Important difference.
Nemo writes:
It's Chrysmas in Detroit
Yeah, Christmas a la 1932?
Poor union labor will only get 97% of their 40-hour checks. Which is a big slice from their usual 135% from all the padded overtime.
mmckinl writes:
The downward spiral accelerates into a free fall while the dogmatic populists obstruct.
~~~~
You mean Republicans my friend ...
Ah, the old standby:
When everything is going to hell, don't blame deadbeat borrowers...just blame Bush.
Why keep making something if no one's buying?
Samdog, you said a mouthful.
So dealers won't be necessary anyway, unless something breaks on the car.
If they don't provide warranties, what do you need to bring it to a dealer for? Any mechanic can fix the thing.
Woof!
Charles Kiting writes:
Poor union labor will only get 97% of their 40-hour checks. Which is a big slice from their usual 135% from all the padded overtime.
How is labor going to get paid if they are laid off?
Something doesn't make sense here.
@Tyler
This crowd is sensitive to that sentiment. Trust me...
You obviously haven't met my mechanic.
Ah, the old standby:
When everything is going to hell, don't blame deadbeat borrowers...just blame Bush.
~~~~~~
If the shoe fits ...
The Senate Republicans thought they'd be cute and support their import factories and now the whole economy is going away ... congrats !
Just like the British National Railway. Just like the British Motorcycle industry. Someone else tried it in the past already....
CONJURE'S GLOBAL DEPRESSION CLOCK
The time is--
11:59:50
Conjure says, "Have a nice day."
Thank God the Senate protected us from the real enemy that created this entire financial crisis--wages.
Harold G writes:
\tI believe I read that recently that either Costco or Sam's Clubs had tried to market automobiles at their stores.
So dealers won't be necessary anyway, unless something breaks on the car.
Harold G | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 5:37 pm
---
Just more deflation and unemployment, and then you have the worry about the devil in the details (Warranty, Rebates, etc).
The bigger concern is financing these purchases. Unless you are rock solid on your credit reports and have a relationship with your financier, you aren't getting a car without a large up-front payment. Costco and/or Sam's cannot do squat unless they want you on their books, and my money is that they won't want you to give you money for 36+ months. The dealership model may be dated, but the unlying problems plaguing it will go to wherever new cars are sold.
People arent going to buy anything more than food and water the coming year. Total shut down of the consumer economy
That's just not true.
I'm still playing pool @50cents/game, although I found two places with free pool on Mon and Tues afternoons. Tonight I'm doing (irony of ironies) "Ladies Night" at Hannah's so I'll probably spend $5 or so. Luckily, I've gotten so good at pool that I rarely pay if I can find a willing sucker.
Asun writes:
So market up 1000 points tomorrow? Or do we get circuit breaker downwards? Please no more sideways nothingburger.
Asun | 12.17.08 - 5:19 pm | #
Actually, in a sane world, something like this closing should/would trigger the circuit breakers.
THIS IS HUGENORMOUS NEWS. We are talking about one of the Big3 closing for a month.
That's not chump change, in terms of workers.
Sadly, I am sure the market will shrug it off and go up 250.
Ironically, everyone says the market is forward thinking.
Well, did anyone see this coming and price it in?
Didn't think so!
Another mouthful: Who pays the union pensions when nobody buys the cars and the manufacturers go BK?
All 3 US auto companies should shut down all production until Jan 20 ,2009. Help is on way, Hold the line.
ot all mechanics are created equal..dealer and manufacturer warranties are tied into regular maintenance at dealerships...read fine print...
I use dealerships but just avoid the upsell menu items...
General Motors Corp., the biggest automaker in the U.S. and Mexico, increased production of $12,625 Chevrolet Aveos south of the border while seeking a bailout to keep domestic plants from closing.
If you sell the cars in South America but the global demand isn't great enough to justify two factories, you keep the single factory in Mexico. Credit the stiff tariffs on American-made vehicles in response to the US sugar quotas.
What value do dealerships add?
What value do Realtors add?
Oh, lord, conjure, just what I needed some cheering up.
Chrysler? I barely know her!
If we taxpayers can pay farmers not to grow crops, surely we can pay Chrysler/Cerberus not to make cars.
More businesses should probably idle operations during that period. From my experience, Thursday Christmases mean two weeks of non-productivity.
mmckinl writes:
If the shoe fits ...
The Senate Republicans thought they'd be cute and support their import factories and now the whole economy is going away ... congrats !
Oh, it's those damn Japanese factories in the south causing the Great Shutdown.
Here I was thinking it all started with home loan defaults.
Tiberius --
Another mouthful: Who pays the union pensions when nobody buys the cars and the manufacturers go BK?
Look in the mirror.
Unless you don't have a job (or, equivalently, have a government job), in which case look in my mirror.
Harold G writes:
I believe I read that recently that either Costco or Sam's Clubs had tried to market automobiles at their stores.
Yeah, I also see Costco sells coffins online, but I like to think I'm not in the market for one of those...
It must be the mentality....
Looking out my window, there's no less than six Dodge trucks out on the thin ice while owners fish.
If this isn't a Kodak moment for a press release.
Is this Cerebrus' "chicken," moment?
Close the factories and dare the govt. not to bail them out.
Dangerous game.
This is the problem:
AIG cant have it both ways, calling the transactions swaps and then saying theres no risk
What is the solution?
MORE RENTENMARKS FOR BLACKHOLIOS
sidd writes:
AIG continues to bleed:
"may have to absorb almost $30 billion more..."
Bloomberg.com refer=home
sidd | 12.17.08 - 5:31 pm | #
I don't think that it is possible to resolve this steaming mass of potential lawsuits
Exactly.
A perpetual bubble of work!
Problem solved.
CONJURE'S GLOBAL DEPRESSION CLOCK
The time is--
11:59:50
Conjure says, "Have a nice day."
mp | 12.17.08 - 5:42 pm | #
I would have thought California's suspension of projects earlier today would have spurred a Bond Clock update.
BRING BACK THE K CAR!
Here I was thinking it all started with home loan defaults.
~~~~
Those southern Senators , Republican , killed the cramdown for mortgages as well ...
Cali suspended projects? What projects?
Is there a problem here?
Samdog - It was a joint promo begtween Volvo and Costco
With what my brother just paid for a 3/4 ton diesel he can afford to pay me to do any needed repairs...
Cobradriver | 12.17.08 - 5:30 pm | #
I'm wondering about continued parts availability, particularly on new models. Maybe dryfly can confirm, but my gut feel is that most parts production goes to the assy lines early-on, until later when failure models predict a market opening up for spares.
cd
Tyler writes:
When everything is going to hell, don't blame deadbeat borrowers...just blame Bush.
\t Tyler | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 5:38 pm
-----
Does your "deadbeat borrowers" tag cover AIG, C, BAC, GS, GE, AXP, GM, F, and any one else who leveraged more than they could afford?
Does it only cover the borrowers who haven't gotten to suck up free goodies at the fund bowl?
Does it just cover your fellow man who may like what you got but doesn't have it?
BRING BACK THE K CAR!
BRING BACK THE K-RATION!
Dawg - Did the CA bonds fail to sell, or did they not figure there was a market so they pulled them?
Mall report, mall across the street is reasonably full of cars.
Hub had to wait in a line at the Brevard mall yesterday to buy a trinket.
The shutdown (provisionally) ends just before inauguration day.
He said he was sorry.
yagij writes:
Tyler writes:
When everything is going to hell, don't blame deadbeat borrowers...just blame Bush.
Outside writes:
Its happening right now.
The collapse of the capitalist system.
People arent going to buy anything more than food and water the coming year. Total shut down of the consumer economy.
Outside | 12.17.08 - 5:29 pm | #
You have summed up the entire ponzi scheme in one pithy post.
Sadly, the downward spiral will continue and only make this the Greater depression.
God help us all in 2009.
I second the motion for an AM Bushie bailout and a super-kermit day tomorrow.
I weep for my puts.
comrade swan writes:
This is the problem:
AIG cant have it both ways, calling the transactions swaps and then saying theres no risk
Then again, you could apply that arguement to the whole "securities" industry. What secure about it?
Nemo - In BK the pensions go too, no?
I mean they are picked up by Uncle Sam, are they?
"I would have thought California's suspension of projects earlier today would have spurred a Bond Clock update."
Rob Dawg, Conjure is still evaluating the bond market and says he won't be finished until late this evening.
Dealers who get it will downsize new car flooring and emphasize used..
I mentioned this here last summer in the middle of the oil mess that if someone could buy all the suv trades for small cars at way below wholesale they would be able to hold some gross on the vehicles later when oil comes down....where is sandys desert car lot structure...
Well, since Chrysler represents 60% of my sales, it looks like it will be a very long, slow January. I guess I have to figure out what to do with all of these extra workers that I'm going to have standing around.
It's not just Chrysler that's getting hit. The tier 1s and 2s are going to take a hit as well.
Don't worry. They will all be resolved by well paid lawyers who take a very long time and charge a high hourly rate. This is just an excellent opportunity for lawyers.
Barley --
I am assuming a Congress and President who receive significant money from the UAW will never allow the pensions to take a hit, much less to fail.
Certainly not while they can borrow money for 30 years at 2.5% interest.
I hope some work trickles down to me!!!
Speaking of the big 3, I heard on Bloomberg today that GM will not "sponsor" the NY Yankees next year. But they're still negotiating with the Mets. And they are going to continue to sponsor somewhere around a dozen other pro baseball teams next year. Unless they run out of money in two weeks like they said they would, I guess.
Barley writes:
Nemo - In BK the pensions go too, no?
I mean they are picked up by Uncle Sam, are they?
There is the PBGC, but they only guarantee a pension of up to 54k/year and no healthcare, so many of the UAW members would be hit in the head with a huge dose of reality.
Amerikan Idol may be delayed one year b/c of low ad revs and lack of credit to mount the production
Mall report, mall across the street is reasonably full of cars.
I was at Kohl's earlier paying a bill, and heard lots of "put that down!" being said by wallet minders.
o healthcare?
But at 54K/year you cant get Medicaid, right?
Hosed!
Gary | 12.17.08 - 5:51 pm | #
Whoa, whoa, whoa . . . we already have a Gary in these parts. Please pick another handle or add an initial.
Idea...
Nationalize the parking lot.
Issue FDIC backed debt using cars as collateral.
Securitize ...
Sell CDS to UAW.
Fund the bailout.
Thank you drive through
lawyerliz writes:
Mall report, mall across the street is reasonably full of cars
Elucidate Cali comment, plz dawg.
barley,
please tell me this wasn't a joke..
I'm estatic right now with that news
I want the real Gary!
I want the real Gary!
I don't want God's help. I want my community to wake up and then we all start figuring out ways to keep everyone warm and fed.
My worst case scenario involves everyone staying isolated and alone. The longer they do the more damage that will have to be overcome before stabilization occurs.
Think about large groups of demographically different people helping each other. Followed by the realization the bonds of community are the secrets to an enjoyable life. Change will happen if enough people choose this path. There's my hope for change.
Amerikan Idol may be delayed one year b/c of low ad revs and lack of credit to mount the production
I hear the music licenses are getting much more expensive as well, at least with Rock Star and Guitar Hero.
Eric, if you're going to keep crying for the damned things all the time, why not just sell them and get it over with?
What happening with Ford holiday announcement.
So much for FORD being First On Race Day anymore.
cd - pretty sure about this. I'll confirm tonight w/ a phone call
Barley writes:
no healthcare?
But at 54K/year you cant get Medicaid, right?
Hosed!
True, but you would think many retired people on a pension would also be over 65 and on Medicare.
If not, they could always work somewhere to earn enough to buy a health insurance policy.
Eric, if you're going to keep crying for the damned things all the time, why not just sell them and get it over with?
MLM | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 5:54 pm | #
Because I'm stubborn and stupid.
People thought I was kidding when I said they'd be getting their tax refunds in minivans and SUVs.
eneryecon, thats the chart i want to see in the long bond.
i'm ridiculously short now
I predict the auto factories won't be restarted at the end of January.
No reason. Sales will have fallen even more.
I thought Templeton was a tad too pessimstic when he predicted a 90% fall in real estate but now...
definitely a possibility.
Basel Too writes:
Amerikan Idol may be delayed one year b/c of low ad revs and lack of credit to mount the production
Oh no! First the global financial meltdown--now this???
WAAAHHH!!!
Huh? writes:
...My worst case scenario involves everyone staying isolated and alone. The longer they do the more damage that will have to be overcome before stabilization occurs.
You haven't met my neighbors. I would really appreciate it if they would leave me alone and stay isolated.
Mall report, mall across the street is reasonably full of cars...
I think they may be renting a lot of them from used car dealers to fill the lots ...
I've seen it before ...
Pooor idle fans. But isn't Idol relatively cheap to do?
Hah, just interview fewer idiots in fewer places.
May all the damn reality shows disappear. Here's a reality show possibility: the contestants really get stranded in the middle of nowhere because there isn't enough money to get them home!
Anonymous writes:
All 3 US auto companies should shut down all production until Jan 20 ,2009.
Nay. They should be hiring like crazy. With enough workers on the payroll, they can extort a bailout from the government. Too big to fail is the new and only viable business strategy.
Note that Chrysler said at least one month and set the restart date one day before Obama takes over.
Anyone see an implied threat in this or just coincidence?
Jim
@LawyerLiz
California Stopped all capital projects to fund essential public services due to lack of interest in their bonds (That is what I picked up from the previous threads)
Short the Utilities. If the big three shut down , half thr electric energy demand will go away. Those auto lots in dallas can be seen from mars.
NewBondBear writes:
i'm ridiculously short now
So I was browsing the opinions forum at my (old--graduated this year) California State university, and students are complaining that their financial aid won't be deposited until the day classes start so they can't buy their books online to save money. My sorrow for the tardiness of their free money is lacking...
Bye bye Cali.
Liz,
Democrats devise plan to hike taxes - Los Angeles Times
\t \t \t\t \t\t\t \t \t\t\t \t \t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t \t\t \t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t \t\t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t\tCalifornia budget crisis spurs freeze on funds for schools, roads \t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\tTop state financial officials vote to halt $3.8 billion in spending for projects including emergency repairs at L.A. and Compton schools. \t\t\t \t \t\t\t \t\t\t\tJordan Rau and Evan Halper, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers \t\t\t\t
1:24 PM PST, December 17, 2008 \t\t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t \t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t \t\t\t \t\t \t\tREPORTING FROM SACRAMENTO -- The state's top three financial officials voted unanimously today to freeze $3.8 billion in financing on road, levee, school and housing construction projects throughout California in the most drastic fallout yet from the state's cash crisis.
From the L.A. Times:
Democratic legislative leaders are planning to use a series of complex legal maneuvers to raise Californians' gas, sales and income taxes over the objection of Republican lawmakers, who have been able to block such proposals in the past.
Under the Democrats' plan, sales taxes would increase by three-fourths of a cent. Gas taxes would go up by 13.5 cents per gallon. And a surcharge of 2.5% would be added to income taxes.
California budget crisis spurs freeze on funds for schools, roads
There would also be new taxes aimed at oil companies.
The proposal, described by Capitol insiders who were briefed on it, will be voted on in the Senate and Assembly tonight. It is part of an $18-billion package of fee and tax hikes and spending cuts intended to address a budget deficit that is projected to grow to nearly $42 billion through mid-2010.
Merry Christmas!
"......they could always work somewhere to earn enough to buy a health insurance policy."
.....with all those available extra part-time jobs out there for older guys?
This really is a race to the bottom. The Japanaese can't be too happy right here with JPY/USD plumbing 20yr lows.
INO Foreign Exchange - US Dollar/Japanese Yen (FOREX:USDJPY) Price Chart and Quote
Holding dollar denominated assets (Treasuries) can't be leading to a very comfortable feeling. Gotta wonder if actions like this by Ben might lead some some protectionism.
According to the Conjure clock,
Ten Seconds Left.
Amerikan Idol may be delayed one year b/c of low ad revs and lack of credit to mount the production
I guess it's true there's no great loss without some small gain...
Feckless Ness writes:
From the L.A. Times:
Democratic legislative leaders are planning to use a series of complex legal maneuvers to raise Californians' gas, sales and income taxes over the objection of Republican lawmakers, who have been able to block such proposals in the past.
God forbid California just spend less!
No, that would be too much change.
Thanks for the Cali report guys.
Must go back to the Irvine Housing Blog and see what the folks are saying on the threads.
The blog itself got boring.
Feckless--RE: CA woes--budget deficit that is projected to grow to nearly $42 billion through mid-2010.
By mid-Jan '09 that number will be $65 B (real
Feckless Ness, didn't they vote on that yesterday? What day is that article from?
My sorrow for the tardiness of their free money is lacking...
Actually, I have a big problem with this practice. One, many loans accrue interest when they're dispersed to the school, not when they're made available to the student. Second, if schools are doing it to protect their own bookstores (some in-house bookstores will allow you pre-purchase from your aid), then the practice is coercive. Finally, if the delay is because the state doesn't have the money, we're all screwed.
Doing fanatastic CD.
I got a contract from an midwestern guy....was a staticccy phone line. sounded like putz.
i've got 350,000 cars out here now, at $10 bucks a month. New mexico sand is perfect.
Ford also shutting down 10 of its North American plants for an extra week in Jan (FOX)
not good...
jus saying,
no kidding! Dealers went big in Texas because of space available...
In houston it seemed every dodge/chrysler dealer went super sized with thier building and lot...
Go up to plano, grapevine, ft worth too...big stores...compared to east coast dealer who has to build up..
Longo toyota has movie theatre for service customers with starbucks and subway...
Circling the Drain | 12.17.08 - 5:47 pm | #
cd,
The current Dodge platform is running the same common rail isb from 03/04. Most major parts are common back a few years. We are still buying Cummins so I don't see them disappearing real soon. The aftermarket is also really deep for these vehicles. Now oddball body and trim,yep that could be a problem. I told em just don't crash it.
Chris
Fla's problems are as nothing compared to that.
And I marvel that there was any money left for the dealers to pull out.
Real stupidity.
"REBear writes:
Do they still get paid?"
"The temporary closures will affect about 46,000 workers in the United States alone. Those employees will get state unemployment benefits and supplemental payments from the company, according to ABC News."
Geez, you have to go to Canada these days to get full u.s. news coverage (source) - CTV News | Chrysler, Ford to halt production over holidays
Anybody who thinks we are close to the end of this quagmire is seriously loony.
Right from a news article on yahoo
"
Under scenarios envisioned by Obama's economic team, a $600 billion package would satisfy the president-elect's jobs goal by the first quarter of 2011, but would leave an unemployment rate of 8 percent two years from now. The team believes that to put unemployment on a downward trajectory, with a goal of 7.5 percent or less over two years, would require a stimulus package of about $850 billion. That would generate about 3.2 million jobs by the first quarter of 2011. The advisers say they agree with economic forecasts that predict that without a government infusion unemployment will rise above 9 percent and not begin to come down until 2011."
So even with almost a Trillion in stimulus the expectation is still 8% unemployment two years from now!! You can throw that second half recovery theory out the door, unless we're talking about second half of the century.
It is part of an $18-billion package of fee and tax hikes and spending cuts intended to address a budget deficit that is projected to grow to nearly $42 billion through mid-2010.
+++++
What is CA spending all of this money on?
Every company out there is laying off people and slimming down their expenses. How many layoffs has CA announced yet?
Basel Too: I think it has more to do with the budget than the school trying to protect its bookstore. We outsource our campus bookstore to Barnes and Noble anyway...
"earn enough to buy a health insurance policy"
"So Mr. Jones, you are 72, a prior heart condition, high blood pressure, and require glasses. You have a chronic skin condition and you broke your leg last year. Lets see. Okay you semi-annual premium is $7500.00 and we will need 2 quarters or $15,000 to start the policy. And I'm sorry we won't be able to insure your wife. Will that be cash check or credit card"
Feckless Ness writes:
\tFrom the L.A. Times:
Democratic legislative leaders are planning to use a series of complex legal maneuvers to raise Californians' gas, sales and income taxes over the objection of Republican lawmakers, who have been able to block such proposals in the past. Under the Democrats' plan, sales taxes would increase by three-fourths of a cent. Gas taxes would go up by 13.5 cents per gallon. And a surcharge of 2.5% would be added to income taxes.
Feckless Ness | 12.17.08 - 6:00 pm
----
Honestly instead of showing the tax hikes, can we see the spending cuts? If Gax tax is going up 13.5 cents/gallon, where is the 26 cents/dollar spending cuts? While I think they should've been preparing for famine while there was plenty of feast, I think this idea of increasing taxes when everything in CA is expense is just down right daranged...
What are CA folks going to do as this shindig gets worse?
Evidence of why California is screwed. This is a muni bond. Jackpot if they actually call in 10 weeks. Regardless at 9.4% double tax free who cares?
TEJON RANCH CALIF PUB FACS FIN Face 5.620Curr Yield 9.400Price 62.70Call date 3/1/2009Call price 103.00
The really sad thing about forecasts is the "experts" don't have a freakin' clue about next week, much less 2011...
Bloomberg
December 17, 2008
Reports from New York-based Cerberus Capital Management state that a mysterious black monolith has appeared over their headquarters.
'My god it's full of cars'. said Cerberus spokesman Peter Duda.
Thanks Sol!
somehow this seems appropriate:
All our old hang-outs
Are boarded up and closed
Or bein bought by somebody
Nobody knows.
But things aint that bad
We still got the kids
Were goin out to the movies
Right after this.
Goin back to school
Savin up my tuition
Gonna rewrite all the rules
On the old blackboard.
cause it seems things today
There aint no magic in em
They dont cut the grade
Like they used to.
Depression blues
Nowhere to go
Bein bought by somebody
Nobody knows.
Is there anybody out there
With a voice loud and clear
Gonna sing all the words
We all wanna hear.
Depression blues
Nowhere to go
Bein bought by somebody
Nobody knows.
Neil Young
Rob Dawg, if I'm looking for a jackpot, having a CA muni called is probably not the first place I'd look.
With enough workers on the payroll, they can extort a bailout from the government. Too big to fail is the new and only viable business strategy
China already owns that niche.
More from L.A. Times:
The state's top three financial officials voted unanimously today to freeze $3.8 billion in financing on road, levee, school and housing construction projects throughout California in the most drastic fallout yet from the state's cash crisis.
Among the efforts that will be idled or postponed are a carpool lane on the 405 Freeway between the 10 and 101 freeways and $373 million in repairs and overcrowding relief for Southern California schools, including emergency repairs at nine Los Angeles Unified School District high schools and five Compton schools, according to lists compiled by state agencies.
State Democrats plan to increase taxes
The financing moratorium also imperils the construction or relocation of California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection stations throughout forested areas; a new veterans home serving western and northern Los Angeles and Ventura counties; a career center and technical education complex for a school for the deaf in Riverside; and a Cal State University library in Monterey Bay.
The delay in one project, an appeals courthouse in Santa Ana now under construction, could leave the judges homeless when the lease of their current court runs out in the spring, a court official told the board. The court had planned to be in its new building by then.
More than 2,000 other projects include park improvements, environmental restoration and repairs to state prisons.
This and previous article are on the LA Times homepage now.
The holiday timing will make for great photo-op's.
But will the man on the street interviews be performed on the cold hard asphalt or the warm jobs bank rooms next to the big screen plasma and union dues jars?
OT: Regarding the dollar, I think some posters here said the dollar would remain strong as long as deleveraging continued.
Well, recently the dollar has been falling (euro was $1.28 not too long ago, now $1.43) and gold has strengthened. Could the dollar already be resuming its decline?
"Those employees will get state unemployment benefits and supplemental payments from the company, according to ABC News."
That is so nice of Chrysler to give their extra cash to the workers so they don't have to make do with just unemployment.
Oh, they have no extra cash?
_
Isn't the 'entire' auto industry supposed to close if one of the big 3 shuts down?
REITs have been quite strong over the past couple of days and on fire since Ben went ballistic.
Can this currency and yields destruction actually be chasing investors into the path of a runaway CRE train?
If not, they could always work somewhere to earn enough to buy a health insurance policy.
Gary | 12.17.08 - 5:55 pm | #
Again, please choose another name. Like Highlander, there can be only one Gary.
Besides, I think you'll find some built up hostility to that name from some corners.
On topic, is tomorrow the day when all hell finally breaks loose?
meanwhile they're trying to ramp up production in china. chrysler asia head Murtaugh in talks with Great Wall Motors since Chery deal finally imploded. Will bailout $ be used to build Chrysler small cars in China instead?
By mid-Jan '09 that number will be $65 B (real
Samdog | 12.17.08 - 6:03 pm | #
Is that your seat-of-the-pants estimate, Samdog, or are you in a position to know?
Democratic legislative leaders are planning to use a series of complex legal maneuvers to raise Californians' gas, sales and income taxes over the objection of Republican lawmakers, who have been able to block such proposals in the past. Under the Democrats' plan, sales taxes would increase by three-fourths of a cent. Gas taxes would go up by 13.5 cents per gallon.
What the hell? Don't Democrats know that these are the most regressive taxes of them all? I guess CA state employees are poor...
It sounds like those things are nice and could be done without, except maybe the school repairs.
Let the judges rent an old warehouse somewhere. Or, a new, never used, warehouse.
With enough workers on the payroll, they can extort a bailout from the government. Too big to fail is the new and only viable business strategy
China already owns that niche.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 6:10 pm | #
Except in China you get a bullet in the head if you try the extortion part as a regular worker.
Longo toyota has movie theatre for service customers with starbucks and subway...
oh jeez.rofl
the small cities are crazy overbuilt also...
quanah, childress, memphis, vernon, wichita falls.
its outa control.
mp writes:
"[quoting]I would have thought California's suspension of projects earlier today would have spurred a Bond Clock update.[end quote]
Rob Dawg, Conjure is still evaluating the bond market and says he won't be finished until late this evening."
And the odd data point is that all of my CA muni bond funds had the largest positive uptick today in at least a month. Go figure.
I'm gonna get me one of them automalls. Cart racing in the parking lot, rent out the service bays to DIYers, showroom as classic vehicle storage, back lot motorhome hook ups. I'm thinking Cars 101 in Oxnard.
<a href=http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=oxnard&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=45.8712,101.162109&ie=UTF8&ll=34.222045,-119.152163&spn=0.002941,0.006174&t=h&z=18>here</a>
Rupert writes:
OT: Regarding the dollar, I think some posters here said the dollar would remain strong as long as deleveraging continued.
Well, that was a pretty dumb thing to say...
Under scenarios envisioned by Obama's economic team, a $600 billion package would satisfy the president-elect's jobs goal by the first quarter of 2011
Best of all possible recessions.
With that kind of Panglossian optimism, how can you go wrong?
"Those employees will get state unemployment benefits and supplemental payments from the company, according to ABC News." ---- Ok, so if I have this right, they will get 95% of their pay from the UAW, will get additional compensation from Chrysler itself, and they will still get state unemployment benefits???? Unbelievable
OT: Regarding the dollar, I think some posters here said the dollar would remain strong as long as deleveraging continued.
Well, recently the dollar has been falling (euro was $1.28 not too long ago, now $1.43) and gold has strengthened. Could the dollar already be resuming its decline?
Rupert | 12.17.08 - 6:10 pm | #
Deleveraging will most likely start again in January with the next round of hedge fund redemptions.
Will bailout $ be used to build Chrysler small cars in China instead?
Sinomania! | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 6:11 pm | #
GM suspends major work on Flint engine plant
| Reuters
DETROIT, Dec 17 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) has suspended major work on the $370-million Flint, Michigan, engine plant where it plans to build a new small engine key to central to its effort to reinvent itself as a maker of fuel-efficient and all-electric cars.
The move comes as the Bush administration weighs a request for emergency loans for GM and its smaller rival Chrysler LLC. GM has said it would run short of cash by January without a federal bailout.
GM spokeswoman Sharon Basel said Wednesday GM had decided to suspend construction work on the plant as its cash crunch worsened. She said GM anticipated that the suspension would be temporary.
The new plant, being built next to an existing engine plant in Flint, is scheduled to build a turbocharged 1.4-liter engine for the Chevrolet Cruze small car and another version of the engine to provide backup power to the all-electric Chevrolet Volt.
"It's on a temporary hold, and what that means is that we're not going to be committing to any cash outlays for structural steel or other things," Basel said. "In the last month, things became extremely dire."
GM and union officials have said that the new engine plant would save jobs for 300 United Auto Workers-represented workers whose positions would otherwise have been eliminated.
Basel said there had been no change to GM's commitment to push ahead with the Volt for a launch in 2010. "There is no impact on the start of production," she said.
GM Chief Executive Rick Wagoner, who faced calls for his resignation during the debate on an auto bailout package in Congress, attended a ribbon-cutting event in late September to mark the start of construction on the new plant in Flint.
The Volt represents the centerpiece of GM's effort to break a costly association with gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs. (Reporting by Kevin Krolicki, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)
CONJURE'S GLOBAL DEPRESSION CLOCK
Sometimes I feel like Harrison Ford in "Regarding Henry" when he meets up with John Leguizamo...
"Just a minute, just a minute"
What are CA folks going to do as this shindig gets worse?
Duck and cover.
"Under scenarios envisioned by Obama's economic team..."
Obama's grand plans remind me of Hitler, last months in the bunker, ordering hollow "paper divisions" around the map.
I think it is time for the UAW to buy Chrysler.
California's WARN law requires certain companies with more than 75 employees to provide 60 days advance notice of a plant closing or mass layoff involving 50 or more employees.
Site that lists CA layoffs.
We are all blackmailers now.
(update)
Chrysler LLC Chief Executive Officer Bob Nardelli is attacking the monolith with the jawbone of an ass.
What are CA folks going to do as this shindig gets worse?
Put their botox and silicone on Craigslist?
mykillk!
RE: Your request for reading material from Buckminster Fuller
Grunch Of Giants:
Grunch of Giants by R. Buckminster Fuller | The Buckminster Fuller Institute
Also if you can find it read his book "Critical Path"
Also lots of info about Bucky Fuller here:
The Buckminster Fuller Institute
Best Regards,
-Ticker Tape of Doom
"GM and union officials have said that the new engine plant would save jobs for 300 United Auto Workers-represented workers whose positions would otherwise have been eliminated."
Well, the position would have been eliminated, but we still would have paid the worker to hang out in the jobs bank each day. We're not heartless here in Michigan.
might be old news,but
CNNMoney.com: 404 Page Not Found
its gm plans for the new year
"Rob Dawg writes:
I'm gonna get me one of them automalls."
Dude, don't forget the weekend park & swap.
"Rupert writes:
OT: Regarding the dollar, I think some posters here said the dollar would remain strong as long as deleveraging continued.
Well, that was a pretty dumb thing to say..."
Except that all the data out there supports this theory. Hedge fund redemptions at Citadel and a host of other funds frozen due to the Madoff scandal, market up, ABX indexes tightening, market being flooded with cash ALL support the above thesis.
Well if the workers are going to be paid then why not have them, I dunno, actually work?
How about clean the plant, repairs to infrastructure, organize stock, something.
Seems just silly if the ship is going down to give the crew a free month paid vacation. Get in there and bail!
joe after the 12 pack writes:
I think it is time for the UAW to buy Chrysler.
Then they would have to extort new contract benefits from themselves every few years.
"What are CA folks going to do as this shindig gets worse?"
Move to another state. Stands to reason it'll only get worse. The California Legislature knows only how to spend - absolutely NO fiscal responsibility. A balanced state budget doesn't also include a "line of credit" (read: loan)
Barley | 12.17.08 - 5:52 pm | #
NO sh!t?! That is too funny - pardon my schadenfreude!
Maybe they could go door to door trying to sell cars.
Or, sweep streets.
Feckless Ness writes:
\tDuck and cover.
Feckless Ness | 12.17.08 - 6:14 pm
------
Duck and cover from what? Sounds like a great way to protect yourself from a raging lava flow... /sarcasm
Seriously, who in CA is actually benefitting from that train wreck besides the Super Rich? The poor?
What does the "average" CA folk think about this ballooning 40+ billion USD shortfall?
On topic, is tomorrow the day when all hell finally breaks loose?
Gary | 12.17.08 - 6:11 pm | #
Looks like it.... futures are back in jammin' it up mode now....
Rob,
that was one of first autonation super lots they thought of or I believe it was when first built
could have been carmax...
Jus saying, I flew into midland for dealer group meeting at new store there and couldnt believe the town needed that many dealerships...
Heck I stopped the car and stood on main hiway bcse I could see every direction and sage it was....
Dirk,
N young is one talented Musician..love his lyrics...
Obama intends to rule from the center-right -- walk softly and carry a big stimulus.
Rotsa ruck, Scooby.
What are CA folks going to do as this shindig gets worse?
yagij | 12.17.08 - 6:06 pm | #
The folk in Sacramento don't know it yet but we will be saying no. They don't understand that there are no new taxes to take from us. We are on the verge of a tax strike. Their decades of ignoring the illegal immigrant problem has already established a viable underground economy. The other thing is that there are several major corps just itching for any excuse to bail.
That Barton Fink Feeling writes:
Put their botox and silicone on Craigslist?
\t That Barton Fink Feeling | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 6:17 pm
------
Nope. Saw a WSJ article talking about the Rich cutting nannies and cleaning crews before thinking about refusing the 'Tox Fix.
Got another idea/suggestion?
I'm gonna get me one of them automalls. Cart racing in the parking lot
Electric or gas?
Me, I'm holding out for my own aircraft carrier a la "Snow Crash".
Yagij,
And they've already sold their souls.
This could get bad.
I guess the State of Cali is the canary in the coal mine.
What form would the tax strike take?
"Dude, where's my bailout?"
...as I said on a recent thread, in a more lighthearted (and ignorant) mood. Notwithstanding Dana Perino's chiding at the daily press briefing, the silence from The White House is deafening.
So is the press, asleep at the switch. What I'm NOT reading in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal is stunning; as is too often the case, I'll have to wait for a book to tell me what really happened.
Calling Naomi Klein...
Move to another state. Stands to reason it'll only get worse
I left in 1990 as the previous RE crash got started. I stopped for lunch in Barstow and I watched Ryder truck after Ryder truck heading away from L.A.
The problem with leaving now is... selling your house.
Rob Dawgwrites:
The folk in Sacramento don't know it yet but we will be saying no. They don't understand that there are no new taxes to take from us. We are on the verge of a tax strike. Their decades of ignoring the illegal immigrant problem has already established a viable underground economy.
Rob Dawg | 12.17.08 - 6:20 pm
----
Sht! How do you stinkin' CA folk do it? You had your gold rushes. You had your tech booms. Now, you are leading the way through the establishment of a state-wide shadow economy which avoids the tax man to the best of your ability! Is it in the water down there? How the bloody Hll do you guys stay on the bleeding edge of progress?
Well, did anyone see this coming and price it in?
Didn't think so!
OCDan
yes.
we are not all UAW now
but soon many of us will be
That Barton Fink Feelingwrites:
\tThis could get bad.
\t That Barton Fink Feeling | \t \t \t \t12.17.08 - 6:22 pm
---
Like actually taking care of their children and spending a vacation within the borders of the continental US? Yeah, GDII is definitely on its way...
I guess the State of Cali is the canary in the coal mine.
What form would the tax strike take?
lawyerliz | 12.17.08 - 6:23 pm | #
I can think of several ways. Increase in internet purchases, Indian nations getting into the gasoline business, loopholes, reduced purchases, transfering investments and investment vehicles out of state, co-ops, on and on.
Obama's grand plans remind me of Hitler.
0 to Godwin in 60 seconds.
Well I'm outta here.
Happy glooming everyone.
Tiberius --
i guess GM won't need to make small engines for the Cruze since they just openend a new factory in Shenyang to mass produce the cruze, intended for the chinese domestic market, of course...
GM, Despite Slowdown, Opens Plant in China for Compact - WSJ.com
Barter?
Fla's unreported economy is nothing to sneeze at either, I'm sure.
Not that I know anything about that.
Now, I'm really outta here. . .
Bet half those factories never reopen ...
What form would the tax strike take?
StarBlogs.net
:
Melissa Etheridge To the Tax Man: Go Pound Sand
You're relatively safe from The System if you're rich or you own nothing. It's only if you're in the middle that you can be co-erced into paying more money and effort to try and salvage your remaining assets.
I own nothing now.
I haven't tested out free health care from the ER yet a la illegal aliens but it's in my thoughts now.
If I were more of a ruthless son of a bitch, I'd get in on black market formation right now.
But I've always disappointed myself in the RSOB dept.
vacations in the US? don't count on them bringing the magic ponies from what I'm seeing.
Cal is in deep caca doo doo ...
But we've got Nancy, Dianne and Barbara ....
Bet stuff happens ... watch ...
Hey liz, thanks for your posts earlier BTW. I appreciate your help. I'm off to work myself so I can bring sunshine and happiness to all the masses LOL...My customers just love Conjures updates!
i love this deflation talk. Just today I got two notices= my health insurance went up 6% and ADT increased by 5%.
so much so for deflation- although I am sure the folks will find a way of describing it as "quality improvement"
Calif is raising taxes on vehicle registration for sure..expect this month to be better than coming months for auto's..this will crimp sales even more...sales tax going up will add to it...
Car sales will slightly revive in 2009 fall or spring 2010...
btw-auto loans are available all day just not to credit criminals...
MLM writes:
Eric, if you're going to keep crying for the damned things all the time, why not just sell them and get it over with?
No, please don't. It makes me laugh when you weep for your puts. Cracks me up every time:)
INO Futures and Commodities - Interest Rates - 30 YEAR INT RATE SWAP Dec 2009 (E) (CBOT:I3.Z09.E) Price Chart and Quote
that's the chart i like.
What does the "average" CA folk think about this ballooning 40+ billion USD shortfall?
yagij | 12.17.08 - 6:19 pm | #
Perhaps you underestimate the depth of denial in California, where meditation, medication, and obfuscation make everything better. Ooommmmmm...
Thanks for the Mercury News link, Speed. Note that Mervyn's is laying off thousands on 12/23, the pricks.
speed @ 6:16
Tons of layoffs scheduled in the next two weeks. MERVYN'S makes up the bulk.
What does the "average" CA folk think about this ballooning 40+ billion USD shortfall?
The what?
If I were more of a ruthless son of a bitch, I'd get in on black market formation right now.
maybe we can conjure up a kinder, gentler black market
i love this deflation talk. Just today I got two notices= my health insurance went up 6% and ADT increased by 5%.
crazyvermonter | 12.17.08 - 6:33 pm | #
We will most likely have inflation in what we need (food, housing, healthcare) and deflation in what we want (housing, automobiles, luxury goods, 401k plan).
What does the "average" CA folk think about this ballooning 40+ billion USD shortfall?
feels like being in the path of a tornado
speeds list in jan. will be more interesting with tech sector announcements..
Yagi:
"What does the "average" CA folk think about this ballooning 40+ billion USD shortfall?"
The pols in Cali have perfected the art of "divide and conquer" to perfection. You have a large population which gets to vote for all the goodies, but the brunt of the taxes are carried by a much smaller percentage. They also play regionalism game very well - take for e.g. the choo choo that was approved last month - they gerrymandered the right of way to include such exciting destinations as Fresno to pull in just enough votes (you'll all have "jobs") to get required 2/3 to pass. The pols always claim that the "polls prove people want these services" but seriously people always want stuff until you tell them waht it costs.
Finally, last but should be first - government employee unions and the pension benefits. This has been a ferquently discussed topic, but you need to understand how much power the unions have in getting people elected in Cali. In local elections they often make or break the candidates. And the pensions are beyond belief - 103% of highest salary with eligibility as early as 50 plus COLAs! In effect you have people making deficit decsions who are personally immune from the consequences. And when you try to take them on, it gets ugly - even the Big Guy found out two years ago when all his anti-union propos were crushed. They hide behind cardboard cutouts of buff firefighters and cops to protect Caltrans and prison shrinks who make $250K and up.
The biggest mistake Cali ever made was to allow government employees to unionize. They own the State.
You asked, just MO from an "average Californian"
speaking from the very soggy southwest coastal border of California i can tell you that we don't really think about Sacramento's finances much at all. The California Republic lives by contrary reality. If you're deep in debt and can't pay bills, borrow more. It's all make believe anyway, right? The most important thing is the rain will pass and tomorrow we'll have a gorgeous red and pink sunset on the Pacific again!
As a taxpayer, saver, and property owner I would like to know who heaved the brick into my teeth.
Famous stalagmite print.
dollar
"We will most likely have inflation in what we need (food, housing, healthcare) and deflation in what we want (housing, automobiles, luxury goods, 401k plan).
Pissed Off In California | 12.17.08 - 6:36 pm | # "
Few of the ever-mounting unemployed will have health insurance, of course.
Whether you think we can afford it or not, health care reform is coming.
The great formerly-insured masses won't willingly go broke over a gall bladder operation for the sake of the free market.
Neoliberal belt-tightening a la Rubin's Russia period isn't going to do it; the empire needs resources and new markets, too.
Is it too early to take bets on Obama's first invasion? Remember: has to be a destination that you can sell to MTV.
The good news is that we're planning a continent-wide bottle drive.
Time for General Fulda to put aside the tea and crumpets and get back in action,.
Can this currency and yields destruction actually be chasing investors into the path of a runaway CRE train?
bearly | 12.17.08 - 6:11 pm | #
Yes, that is the plan.
My dentist's wife works for BoA. He says she now has no idea whether or not she will have a job.
A CDS event!
NEW YORKThe International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc. (ISDA) today announced that it will launch a CDS auction protocol to facilitate the settlement of credit derivatives trades referencing Ecuador, the South American country that is in default for the second time this decade. The 2008 Ecuador CDS Protocol will be the first protocol published by ISDA in regards to the settlement of a sovereign credit event
I think of this economic situation as an inexperienced new pilot flying an airplane that he's not quite familiar with into a box canyon in bad weather with the sun about to set and the temperature dropping rapidly. There is no way out and IS going to end badly. Unfortunately all of us are passengers.
Note Motorola's announcement today that they are suspending 401k matching. As this trend builds it sure takes a lot of money (automatic money) out of the stock markets.
FORD TO CITY: DROP DEAD.
OBAMA TO CALI: YOU TOO.
There may well be waste in California gov't, and unions may well be full of evil orcs.
And the State Chamber of Commerce may well be staffed with broad-shouldered stalwarts whose only thought is to make the state a better place for all Californians through free enterprise.
That said, when I hear that California is 46th out of 50 states on public school spending for pupil, I have to think the whole story's not being told.
"Is it too early to take bets on Obama's first invasion? "
I don't think there will be one, unless it's reactive. Truly reactive.
But of course, that's only my opinion about an unknowable future.
As a taxpayer, saver, and property owner I would like to know who heaved the brick into my teeth.
Johnny Lee | 12.17.08 - 6:38 pm | #
Ben & Co. will know they've hit you with enough bricks when you (and the dollar) are 100% under the bus.
Hmm.
President-elect Barack Obama plans to name Mary Schapiro, chief executive officer of the Financial Services Regulatory Authority, to be chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, people familiar with the selection said.
Stop teasin with that dollar chart. I get palpatation thinking about that on a 30year chart.
If it look's like that by friday, I'll be vaca'in with Obama in Lanikai
That said, when I hear that California is 46th out of 50 states on public school spending for pupil, I have to think the whole story's not being told.
~~~~
Start with the prisons ...
Ever since the two Bear Stearns hedge funds defaulted 17 months ago triggering a global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been busy putting out one fire after another.
I have never been impressed by the efforts of a firefighter who later is discovered to be the arsonist who started the conflagration, or the efforts of a journalist intentionally or unintentially missing the real cause of the disaster.
(rain today forcing me to use the full-time 4 wheel rant rover).
"...flying an airplane that he's not quite familiar with into a box canyon in bad weather ..."
Mint Canyon, 1938
Tucson-based Connelly Billiards, a luxury billiard table manufacturer and retailer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Tuesday.
I propose that rather than measuring the economic meltdown in baseball terms like innings, it should be marked in literary terms, like books.
We are now in Chapter 11.
Mint Canyon, 1938
Conjure was there.
Looks like the wheels are coming off the schedenfreudevagen:
Deutsche Bank, Germany's top lender, said it had chosen not to exercise a "call option" on a subordinated bond worth 1bn (£930bn), breaking an iron-fast code in the credit markets. The bank's share price fell 7pc in Frankfurt, and the default insurance on the company's debt surged. "This has never happened before," said Willem Sels, a credit strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort. "Banks have never wanted to do it because it upsets investors and could mean that future funding will be hit."
Ambrose
It is almost 7 pm, Madoff will be of the streets. I suddenly feel safer.
Tucson-based Connelly Billiards, a luxury billiard table manufacturer and retailer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Tuesday.
Sshhhh! Don't tell Broward Horne! He'll lose all hope.
"Tucson-based Connelly Billiards, a luxury billiard table manufacturer and retailer, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Tuesday."
One might think that people who can afford luxury billiard tables would always be able to afford them, no matter what.
Mint Canyon Crash
Mint Canyon crash
Lordy - Talk about a perfect storm!
From Russia:
The Central Bank allowed a devaluation of the ruble for the second time this week on Wednesday, allowing it to lose almost 1.4 percent of its value against the currency basket, its biggest devaluation in three months. While the ruble plummeted against the euro, it lost little against the dollar, which sank on news of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the United States.
Its going to come to cutting pensions....eventually, in CA, and everywhere else. CALPERS, CALSTERS will never be able to keep up with payouts to retirees, let alone active employees.
I propose that rather than measuring the economic meltdown in baseball terms like innings, it should be marked in literary terms, like books.
We are now in Chapter 11.
bearly | 12.17.08 - 6:45 pm | #
You really need to think in terms of a book set such as the Britannica Series.
Chapter 11, book 2, set 3.
Start with the prisons ...
mmckinl | 12.17.08 - 6:44 pm | #
"The average yearly cost of keeping an inmate in prison jumped $9,125 in last five years to $44,165, according to figures from the legislature's budget office."
The Real Cost of Prisons Weblog: CT: Cost of prisons soar. Medical training costs almost as much as a year in prison
The California prison system is the leading budget expenditure. Think about that and the the real societal cost of being tough on crime and the farcical war on drugs.
...the economy is hitting every branch down the ugly tree.
cd writes:
"Calif is raising taxes on vehicle registration for sure..expect this month to be better than coming months for auto's..this will crimp sales even more...sales tax going up will add to it..."
Senior exec in our local SoCal city reports that it received zip from the state last month for its share of reg fees - that's right zip. "Honey, I'm home ...."
Huh? | 12.17.08 - 6:48 pm
Yep ... the prison industrial complex ...
Esp. in Cally, the bottom line is this...
We are going to have to learn to live with less of everything.
I think it was Kunstler a few ago that said, our current lifestyle is not affordable (for the country, as a whole).
He was and is spot on.
We are not just bloated, but overbloated because of debt.
With all that debt shedding and values declining, contraction is inevitable.
Look, I have no problem with trying to make things easier, esp. for those with disabilities (call them what they are, not challenges), but the cost for some of this special treatment is no longer affordable. I am ref. the post above regarding the Deaf center or whatever it was.
We are going to have to learn to actually help one another, not rely on stuff and buildings to do it for us.
Novel concept. If we don't get this part of it right, we are in serious trouble.
Deutsche Bank, Germany's top lender, said it had chosen not to exercise a "call option"
Speed
Wow! Just Wow!
OBAMA TO CALI: YOU TOO.
Terrance | 12.17.08 - 6:42 pm | #
At least wait until the guy takes office to start blaming him for this crap.
If they go bankrupt, only the old warranties will be breeched. Any cars sold with a warranty after the filing date will have a sound contract unaffected by the bankruptcy ruling.
mp, I hope you don't think you're being funny. Take it as a backhanded compliment that you and conjure are frightening me.
"From Russia:"
Also from Russia - new multiple warhead ICBM to be deployed in '09, also remont of the SS-18.
mmckinl would rather lick the toes of the UAW, the Ford scions, and the Cerberus fat cats than acknowledge the honest American workers organized by Toyota, a public company also traded on the NYSE.
OCDan, Kunstler's vision is a mixed bag.
He's right about the end of happy consumerism and happy motoring.
And, he's wisely called for infrastructure spending on rail and urban infill rather than more exurban hypertrophism.
I even like his nasty wit; see him this week on what will happen "when the supply of Cheez Whiz and Pepsi runs out."
But aren't you in the least put off by his excitement to get to the Thunderdome? Old Wild Bill's moral code is deeply retributive; his futurism has more than a foot in the puritan past.
mp-thats close to the real first gold discovery in cali...mexicans were mining it close by....
me and buddy dredged up 3/4 oz a little nearby in piru creek...
good times..cheap too...
Deutsche Bank AG part of the Bankster Clearing House LLC Mob ... The Merry Go Round of financial shenanigans ....
Name \tPrimary Company\tAge
James Dimon\t\tJPMorgan Chase & Co\t
Victor Menezes\t\tCitigroup, Inc.\t
Norman Bobins\t\tLaSalle Bank National
Kenneth Lewis\t\tBank of America
Thomas Renyi\t\tDPM Mellon\t
Juergen Fitschen\tDeutsche Bank AG
Youssef Nasr\t\tHSBC Holdings plc\t
William Harrison Jr.\tMerck & Co. Inc.\t
Richard Kovacevich\tWells Fargo & Company\t
Martin Glynn\t\tMF Global Ltd
Richard Davis\t\tUS Bancorp
Bob Dobbs writes:
"That said, when I hear that California is 46th out of 50 states on public school spending for pupil, I have to think the whole story's not being told."
Objective reference cite pls?
60+% of my property taxes (plus x amount of income, etc. taxes) goes to my local school district. (2002 purchase). No one gets elected to the Board without union endorsement, and it is at the bottom of the barrel in terms of performance.
Huh? writes:
The California prison system is the leading budget expenditure. Think about that and the the real societal cost of being tough on crime and the farcical war on drugs.
I thought CA ended the war on drugs by making pot available to anyone with a phony ailment? If they taxed the pot sales a little more, they might close this budget gap.
Maybe CA could outsource the running of their prison system like many other states do?
And of course end the windfall government pension system also.
Comrade V writes:
You have a large population which gets to vote for all the goodies, but the brunt of the taxes are carried by a much smaller percentage.
According to The Economist, half of the state income taxes in California are paid by 144,000 wealthy individuals.
Sustainable?
Currently Accounting would rather we out sourced all our manufacturing so that other countries can control our economy ...
Mint Canyon crash
Tiberius | 12.17.08 - 6:48 pm | #
Thanks for an interesting read.
Sustainable?
Corey | Homepage | 12.17.08 - 6:58 pm | #
depends how leaky their life raft from the Titanic is.
But aren't you in the least put off by his excitement to get to the Thunderdome? Old Wild Bill's moral code is deeply retributive; his futurism has more than a foot in the puritan past.
That Barton Fink Feeling | 12.17.08 - 6:56 pm | #
I see where you are coming from. It would be hard for me to understand his speed on this, except to say the sooner we get to the bottom, maybe the faster we can rebuild.
Currently Accounting | 12.17.08 - 6:53 pm | #
You have to pick a side. Labor or capital. If you haven't been paying attention labor has gotten the shit kicked out of it and the UAW is the life support.
The UAW contracts need to be looked at but the politics behind the auto bailout are sickening if you consider what the consequences are for the battle being waged.
If you still labor under the onus of believing in the American dream then nothing I can write will change your mind. We all want to be in charge and powerful. The problem is the ranks of the wealthy is full and they are no longer accepting applications.
Feckless Ness
I really wish you girls would move on. It's over. You'll find somebody else. Size isn't everything.