The fundamental problem here is that we have a fundamental problem.
The banksters are too broke to go bankrupt.
To remedy, the confidence gamemasters -apologizing for abandoning the free market- are trying to fix the leaky dam with water.
Out taxpayer dollars streaming down the blackholios to bail out rich folks for bad speculative bets.
Where is the outrage? Muted. Numbed by the cumulative effects of a decades long 'manufacture of consent' assembly line that succeeded for the most part in drafting folks' inner monologues so that they would vote for those that did not have their best interests at heart.
Most people are not liars. As such they cannot process that the pablum presented to them over and over again is blatantly false. It just seems to be a ridiculous and outlandish assertion and any presenter of such claim is held to a standard that can not be easily proved in a timely soundbite fashion.
The strong dollar policy that resulted in a weak currency has been replaced by a wrong dollar policy - debasanistas revealing themselves as such.
This is good we are told. Inflation is necessary. Wealth confiscation is in your interest. Why if the business cycle is allowed to follow its' natural cycle folks might (shudder) begin behaving prudently.
Bubblevision and Hee Haw blather on ... interrogating the usual suspects beseeching them for actionable intelligence (an oxymoron) without reporting how intelligent the previous 'recommended actions' were.
Is that the bottom?, nope just another #@$%@hole.
The recovery is right around the corner, well perhaps the second corner, pay no attention to the distance separating patience from a patient.
What stocks should we buy? Well, good stocks. Can you be more specific?. Stocks that have good cash flow and strong balance sheets. Can you name names? Oh gosh no, I'm < koff, koff> not allowed, but I look forward to our next interview.
And on a personal note, this blogger may have foiled an armed robbery the other day just by my natural Irish surliness, folks on McMansion row are getting mugged, everyone seems to have a 'know someone who got robbed or shot' story and the local papers report that before our governor Rod Blagojevich got into politics he was a bookmaker on the North Side who regularly paid the Chicago mob to operate.
FedEx Cuts CEO Pay, Freezes Hiring as Volume Drops (Update2)
By Mary Jane Credeur
Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- FedEx Corp. Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith will take a 20 percent pay cut and salaries will be trimmed across the company as the package shipper battles the longest recession in a quarter century.
Smiths salary will fall by 20 percent, with reductions of as much as 10 percent for senior executives and 5 percent for other U.S. salaried personnel, FedEx said today in a statement. Company contributions to retirement accounts will be suspended for at least a year, and hiring will be frozen. FedEx Cuts CEO Pay, Freezes Hiring as Volume Drops (Update5) - Bloomberg.com
The number of companies pre-announcing their December quarter results is staggering, and we still have two weeks left in the quarter! On top of the sheer number, the size of the revenue miss appears huge to me, not slight misses, but huge (AMD, ATHR two examples.) And what is really interesting (IMHO) is the fact that when they gave guidance in October, everyone knew that the economy was going into a tailspin, so they gave out extra-conservative guidance, and now they are missing it by a country mile! (Yet the markets are up over the last few weeksSanta Claus (rally) is alive and well I guess.)
Try "Al Quaeda Terrorist Cell". It got a friend of mine a visit from the FBI, who politely asked that the SSID be changed so that they wouldn't have to field any more calls from the stupid people who believed it was possibly true. The face of the field agent betrayed such exhaustion that my friend didn't even argue (so she claims. If any part of the story is in doubt, it's the "she didn't argue" part.)
Just heard the Credit Suisse is using illiquid securities to pay the bonuses of those who are directors or above. Talk about enjoying the fruits of your labor.
"Wait until the auto components supply pipeline seizes."
Exactly and if and when that happens, it could very easily happen in much more vital sector: agriculture! The same logistical principles are used whether you are producing/distributing toy parts, food, electronics etc etc etc..
Then most of you guys are not going to be here reading and commenting... you will be out there trying to buy somewhere something to eat!
Anyone else getting creeped out by the intentional slow unveiling of names and ultimate dramaqueen challenge being waged by BO. bearly | 12.18.08 - 10:45 am | #
SLOW?
He's filled more Cabinet positions more quickly than almost any transition team in history.
Ericwrites: \tOne of my neighbors changed their SSID (wireless identifier) to "Virus Infestation". I'll try someone else, thanks! \t --- What about my neighbor's network: "NoFreeWirelessForU"?
To follow up on the gold talk of earlier, if you buy gold at the COMEX level, you are ultimately trading against the needs of international groups to maintain stability in "their" buying power, not yours.
Ultimately, every commodity trade boils to someone "having to" buy at some price rather than "wanting to".
For you traders out there, it might be helpful to keep that in mind. There is no philosophical/ moral reason outside of this i/r/t gold.
Similarly, an artificial "gold hedge" could be accomplished by "actual" currency users (not traders) by arbitraging several currencies.
It may be helpful to think of commodity markets as really existing only for users of the commodities, first and foremost. Traders and speculators operate way out on the periphery and can only affect prices in short bursts. Thankfully.
As an aside, if I had my druthers, I'd limit commodity market orders to actual market participants and REDUCE liquidity in terms of types of exchange participants.
At the very least, I'd limit outstanding non-participant (read: end user) orders to 5% of outstanding contracts.
Wynn Resorts Ltd, which next week is opening the Encore casino on the Las Vegas Strip, will sacrifice high room rates, and profit, in order to boost occupancy at its Vegas resorts, according to Chief Executive Steve Wynn.
"The last couple of weeks have been the worst I have ever seen. We had 53 percent occupancy for a couple of nights," Wynn told Reuters in an interview.
I would like to see a revised chart of the Four Bad Bears with the current bear starting at the Tech crash rather than Jan 2008.
I believe one would then see a better similarity to 1929.
Bernake may be right in his liquidity theory, but wrong in his timing, as I see the Bush Administration and the Greenspand Fed applying liquidity post the tech crash and creating the market revival to the 2007 high and the housing bubble. But then the Keynesian liquidity ran out of steam, effectiveness, and we have now.
As a casual student of the Great depression I wonder: did we not have two economic attacks on the economy at the same time: Keynes liquidity and bankruptcy deliquidation. Was it not the latter that really ended the great depression?
May become the same ultimate solution today, once the liquidity nonsense finishes its destruction.
On the other end of the spectrum, ABC News/Good Morning America claims that GS is using taxpayer money to pay bonuses. Would be nice if this misuse of bailout funds finally gets some attention.
[no luck inserting a link; see yahoo homepage for more info]
I work for a manufacturer in So.CA, we are ok with work since we do a lot of Aerospace/defense type but credit tightening is killing cash flow...banks are paranoid now
I know. Maybe he can start dribbling out names 1/2 at a time, say first name one day and last name the next, like a Survivor series. bearly | 12.18.08 - 10:54 am | #
Again, he's done it more quickly than anyone else.
Would you prefer he not announce names? I'm honestly confused as to what you find so troubling about someone making a decision, and then going up behind a podium to announce that decision. Beats the shit out of some small group gathered in a dark room somewhere.....
Bush considering 'orderly' auto bankruptcy
Thursday December 18, 10:55 am ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The White House says a managed bankruptcy for automakers is one option being considered to help save the troubled industry.
White House press secretary Dana Perino told reporters Thursday that "we're going to do something." The Bush administration wants to avoid what it calls a "disorderly collapse" of car companies that would result in devastating job losses and sweeping economic problems. Expired
I can't wait for all these new officials to start sticking their fingers in the markets. The more the merrier. These people are going to have a press conference a day next year explaining their plans to restore confidence.
OT- Sold another 1/3 of my DTO for 141 (bought monday @ 111, posted here). I like the DZZ (gold short) position, but breakeven stop. Stocks appear to want to grind sideways up into a topping formation by year end (on light volume, of course).
The White House says a managed bankruptcy for automakers is one option being considered to help save the troubled industry.
My gods, they are actually considering the reasonably intelligent and responsible choice. I may faint.
Of course, they didn't make their buddies in the financial industry take their medicine, AND they're still just "considering" this, so forgive me if I don't do the Dance of Joy just right now.
They can afford to say that. They won't actually be around to implement anything.
That would be why, as I said, I ain't actually popping the champagne just yet. talk vs. final decision vs. Actual Competent Execution of the plan are 3 extremely different animals. I hope the Obama team would do a better job with issue #3 than their predecessors, but I am fully aware that hope is really all I have to go with on that front.
Most people are not liars. As such they cannot process that the pablum presented to them over and over again is blatantly false
"A new survey shows the average person tells four lies a day, or 1,460 a year for a total of 88,000 by the age of 60, and the most common is: "I'm fine."
And to think that most Americans believe that social sciences are a waste of time and money.
A larger focus on social sciences could reduce your energy dependency and help you focus on what truly makes people happy.
" Dave of SV writes:
Bobb Dobbs--Any idea what your friend's recent uptick in orders would equate to in year-over-year % change (I assume still negative). And any idea what he thinks the first quarter will look like year-over-year % change? Thanks! Dave
Dave of SV | 12.18.08 - 11:51 am | # "
Now, most Americans are scared of even returning to life as lived in 1981 - for reasons that still don't make much sense to me. Living within in your means isn't avoidable, in the long run.
I'm starting to understand why I've a different attitude on debt than most of my Xer peers. For various micro and macroeconomic reasons, My family/hometown never really stopped living like they were in 1981 until the early clinton years. It wasn't scary, it was my childhood, and a return to that would be just fine (assuming I can keep my Internet Access...)
Cash payments representing distributions of a portion of the award may be made to participants in the future contingent on the performance of the underlying assets, Dougan and Calello said in the memo. Cash distributions will not be made for several years.
The bank said it expects to begin annual payments after five years.
While Credit Suisse doesnt say how many managing directors and directors work at the investment bank, the number is in the thousands.
By the end of next March either oil will be in the 60s or Gold will be below $500. They cant go in different directions for too long and the long term ratio (100 years) is 15 to 1. That being said, I have no idea which happens - although I have to think that printing dollars will lead to both eventually going much higher while asset deflation continues.
"Would you prefer he not announce names? I'm honestly confused as to what you find so troubling about someone making a decision, and then going up behind a podium to announce that decision. Beats the shit out of some small group gathered in a dark room somewhere....."
I'm still waiting for the constitutional ammendment to ban gay marriage. /sarcasm off
Most people are not liars. As such they cannot process that the pablum presented to them over and over again is blatantly false
"A new survey shows the average person tells four lies a day, or 1,460 a year for a total of 88,000 by the age of 60, and the most common is: "I'm fine."
rent_to_own writes:
'I remember 81 very well. The atmosphere is much much worse today.'
1981 was the result of a long grind down - Americans were not really expecting anything else, so they preserved what little savings they had left, having become as thrifty as possible. It was almost, but not quite, a sea change in attitude.
Now look at today - debt as far as the eye can see, blind optimism being replaced by a blind foreboding, likely to transform itself into blind fear.
Very True, and Reagan had not fully opened the Casino yet, for 24 hour gambling. The economy still produced things, rather than creating them out of financial instruments, or, better yet, just stealing them.
Popeye writes:
Popeye's olfactory glands are available for syndication in exchange for an appropriate percentage paid upfront in krugerands.
Popeye | 12.18.08 - 12:02 pm | #
Today IS the January contracts expiration. That means if your a specualtor or refiner, and you don't want delivery, you need to exit the contract by today's close or expect your 1000 barrels coming to a pipe near you!
Comrade Kristina,
It is only crazy on an absolute scale, but that's not where we live - is it ? If you think the hard core rich are going to surrender their relative position over a little mortgage speculation, I'm willing to sell a fee simple absolute in the Brooklyn Bridge for a very reasonable exponential sum.
I was quite young in the early 80's but I remember things seeming far less bleak then. The recessions were being caused by governmental policy to bring down inflation. It was bad, and many didn't agree with the policy, but everybody thought the Fed was in control. People were facing ruined lives; but at least they understood somebody else was doing it to them for a logical selfish reason and perhaps it was even for the best for the country overall. There was very little thought to going into a new Depression.
This is much worse because the Fed is patently not in control; most people don't understand why things are getting so bad; and even those of us in the know are at a loss for the mechanisms (e.g. negative TIP spreads, who's buying the long bond, oil WTF). People aren't being wiped out by other people who can theoretically be negotiated with, bargained with, or voted against; we're being wiped out by an mysterious implacable inhuman force and it seems to be completely out of our control.
nods--my point was sort of that I would rejoice if we just went back to 1981, and the irony is that if we had kept the basic attitude toward money that society had then, we probably would be looking at a return to 1981 as the worst case scenario, instead of 1932.
Saying you are fine when you feel like crap isn't a lie. This is an automatic social answer that by common consent means nothing unless you are a dr, or someone else actually interested in health.
Good point liz, I doubt people want to hear "I'm awful, I just had a colonoscopy, I have gout and my husband is cheating on me" They really just want to hear "fine"...
nods--my point was sort of that I would rejoice if we just went back to 1981, and the irony is that if we had kept the basic attitude toward money that society had then, we probably would be looking at a return to 1981 as the worst case scenario, instead of 1932. \t Mostly Lurker | \t \t \t \t12.18.08 - 12:23 pm | # Mostly Lurker | 12.18.08 - 12:23 pm | #
Agree. I'm one of the older boomers and, contrary to what some have alleged, we older boomers remember our depression era parent's warnings. Some of us hope 1981 will be the worst it gets. We have saved, not lived beyond our means and instinctively tightened our belts at the first sign of a problem.
The bank will use leveraged loans and commercial mortgage- backed debt, some of the securities blamed for generating the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, to fund executive compensation packages, people familiar with the matter said. The new policy applies only to managing directors and directors, the two most senior ranks at the Zurich-based company, according to a memo sent to employees today."
Sorry if I am behind the curve on this news but are they giving toxic waste AS the bonus? Can companies force executives to refund past bonuses in exchange for toxic waste at the fantasy Level 3 valuations (without triggering a "market" at the inflated price)?
Mostly Lurker, I think it would have been even easier to evade things than that. If Greenspan had kept rates reasonably low - say 3% - in 2001-2004, and the regulators had stopped the truly psychotic "innovations" like CDOs, liar loans, option ARMs, etc., i think we would have had an 80's level or less recession then and would be OK now. It took some truly insane policies to get us to this state.
As an older boomer I actually wouldn't mind returning to 1958. We had a tv a car, a washing machine, a 4 bedroom house, with smaller rooms on a shady street. One of each only.
But I'd want the sense of community back too.
We didn't have a dryer, a dishwasher, a microwave, or of course, the internet. I could do without those things, except the internet, and maybe the dryer. Hanging clothes is a drag.
Comrade Kristina - Well, I'm about as close to Panama City as you can get in AL and my mom has some good friends there. So if you want to meet for coffee or lunch contact me through the email on the profile on my web page. Will be here for about 2 weeks.
I guess that little blip from a few months ago was a result of the stimulus? (scamulous?) Gee that turned out to be a really effective use of taxpayer funds didnt it?
CK, that loan of yours is exhibit A for "usurious exploitative loans". I've always thought the real purpose of that kind of subprime is to steal the house and it was kind of an accident that the brokers made massive fees through serial refi's.
FE, I had the same thought when I signed it...Had no other choice but to lose the family home though. I'm refinancing now, or trying anyway. I'm still above water though by about 30-40K/
I thought that was like a medieval disease that disappeared with leprosy and consumption?
Sometimes, yes. For most people to get it you need a high-protein low-vitamin diet that's rare and easily fixed today. But with certain metabolic and kidney problems you can get it anyway.
lawyerliz writes:
Saying you are fine when you feel like crap isn't a lie. This is an automatic social answer that by common consent means nothing unless you are a dr, or someone else actually interested in health.
I was bruised and battered and I couldnt tell What I felt I was unrecognizable to myself I saw my reflection in a window I didnt know My own face Oh brother are you gonna leave me Wastin´away On the streets of philadelphia
I walked the avenue till my legs felt like stone I heard the voices of friends vanished and gone At night I could hear the blood in my veins Black and whispering as the rain On the streets of philadelphia
Aint no angel gonna greet me Its just you and I my friend My clothes dont fit me no more I walked a thousand miles Just to slip the skin
The night has fallen, Im lyinawake I can feel myself fading away So receive me brother with your faithless kiss Or will we leave each other alone like this On the streets of philadelphia
I thought that was like a medieval disease that disappeared with leprosy and consumption?
Well, I believe "consumption" is another term for tuberculosis and I think that's making a comeback. My coworker is suffering from gout as we speak, and he's pretty good about watching his health and diet. So medieval times seem to be making a comeback, including on the economic front.
I'm astonished (even though it's the NYP) that they would identify waxing, wine, hair, entertainment, cable, etc. as NEEDS vs. WANTS.
WTF? These are all "wants" in my opinion. Food, heat/ac, rent/mortgage payment are all needs in my book, the rest is just frivolous spending that can and should be cut back when called for. Seriously, a sales clerk at a cigar shop spends more than $1k per month on this shit? Ridiculous!
Meredith Whitney is right on once again. Yesterday got a letter from Chase that my $20,000+ credit limit card is being closed due to inactivity for 2 yrs. If I'd have known that, I would've used it, tho they probably still would have cancelled it. I've had that card forever. Used to love the 1.9% till payoff balance transfer. I should have framed that offer for posterity.
"The White House says a managed bankruptcy for automakers is one option being considered to help save the troubled industry."
they got their chops managing bk's with the Lehman debacle, no?
Buying puts on insurance seems very risky to me. Most of the fixed income assets they own are AAA agencies, munis and treasuries - all of which have traded up huge in the past couple weeks. Book values for most insurers got a big shot in the arm.
--
I was early but things in the economy are now on the track that I forecasted three years ago.
The following are my comments on Treasury Yield & Housing Prices made at the beginning of 2006 (based on my forecast of recession in late 2006/early 2007 and depression in late 2008/ early 2009, early as usual, and guilty as charged):
January 3, 2006
Treasury Yield & Housing Prices
Jas: The 10-Year US treasuries will fall below 3% some time between 2006Q3-2007Q2 [I was early on this, which is the case with most of my forecasts]. Then, below 2% before the end of 2008.
Kevin asked: How will the housing bubble burst if 10 year treasury yields fall to 2%?
Hello Kevin,
I am guided only by history. Two examples should suffice:
The housing prices in Southern California peaked in March 1990. For the next 3.5 years the yield of 10-Year Note declined 3.5% and housing price kept declining with the decline in the yield.
The Japanese 10-Year, JGB, have been yielding bet.1-2% more than a decade and the real estate prices declined for 13 years in a row!
When Treasury yields decline in a Depression, or anticipating a Depression, should housing prices go up? When 20% population is unemployed, counting those who stopped looking for a job or permanently discouraged, should housing prices go up? MOST IMPORTANTLY, WHEN THE NUMBER OF EMPTY HOUSING UNITS IS AT HISTORIC HIGH, SHOULD HOUSING PRICES KEEP GOING UP?
One has to be an economic ignoramus to believe that the housing prices in the bubble areas of the US will not go down substantially. A very easy prediction: THE PERCENTAGE DECLINE IN THE HOUSING PRICES IN CALIFORNIA WILL EXCEED THE PERCENT DECLINE IN 10-YEAR NOTE YIELD! When the yield goes below 2%, California home prices will be down
between 60-80%. And I am being conservative! I can't wait to find out: How long economies supported on fraud, notably those of Manhattan and Silly.con Valley, hold up? The housing prices in the economies supported on fraud WILL turn into rubble.
I am reading "Blood Money: Wasted Billions, Lost Lives, and Corporate Greed in Iraq" by T. Christian Miller.
It is a pretty good book for undertanding what is going on with Paulson et all.
In Iraq it was no bid, no explanation, given to friends of the administration reconstruction. No questions were invited, no explanations given. It has not turned out well.
It is the same method of operation we have seen with TARP and all the other funding. No one knows where the money went, and they refuse to tell.
It will be interesting to see if the same staggering level of imcompetence, bribery, and fraud is happening again. Well not again, more like continuing. I already think I know the answer unfortunately.
"It will be interesting to see if the same staggering level of imcompetence, bribery, and fraud is happening again."
I think it will be at a more staggering level
Buying puts on insurance seems very risky to me. Most of the fixed income assets they own are AAA agencies, munis and treasuries - all of which have traded up huge in the past couple weeks. Book values for most insurers got a big shot in the arm
Valid point, but I think you are underestimating the rest of the toxic crap on their books. Remember that the CEO of Hartford said that they couldn't value their assets. That was before the runup of treasuries gave him an adequate capital position (for now). They also own a crapload of CRE and real estate. I'll take my chances.
Good luck Gav.
I'd stick to the life and annuity companies which sounds like your strategy. I think its a tough play (as is anything in this market) but i understand your logic.
By the way, you pay bonuses in illiquid assets by giving your employees those illiquid assets - so instead of cash, the bankers at CS will get hung bridge loans and some other crappy paper. They also get it at face value not market....
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
"OT- Sold another 1/3 of my DTO for 141 (bought monday @ 111, posted here). I like the DZZ (gold short) position, but breakeven stop."
Congrats, puts you ahead of Rich on the oil trade, but he is ahead on the PM side. I can see now you have more of a short term perspective while he is (comparatively) longer horizon.
Thanks for update. Let us know how DZZ works out. I'm holding some GLD just for the trend. FXE as well for the dollar hedge.
My friend who works in industrial magnetron tubes has reported an increase in orders after they essentially ceased in early October.
Not huge numbers, but they're off the bottom. The tubes are used in industrial-scale processing: cooking, burning, radiating, sterilizing, etc.
I assume this means that some manufacturers overreacted when cutting orders to suppliers, and have now determined at what level they actually need replacement parts and raw materials for current business levels.
I'm not as erudite as a lot of the folks who post here, and I have never professed the wisdom to call anything more than the short term. That said, I smell a rally.
Bob Dobbs - thanks for that data point. See similar things. Definately not a surge of orders but the decline has ended in many of our business and we're seeing a very modest uptick.
We didnt float any plan, Paulson said. I am always looking at new ideas and I have said from day one that the key thing to get us through this period is getting housing prices down.
'I remember 81 very well. The atmosphere is much much worse today.'
1981 was the result of a long grind down - Americans were not really expecting anything else, so they preserved what little savings they had left, having become as thrifty as possible. It was almost, but not quite, a sea change in attitude.
Now look at today - debt as far as the eye can see, blind optimism being replaced by a blind foreboding, likely to transform itself into blind fear.
People weren't as scared in 1981 - they had faced years of want already, and were at least able to handle it.
Now, most Americans are scared of even returning to life as lived in 1981 - for reasons that still don't make much sense to me. Living within in your means isn't avoidable, in the long run.
Paulson: I am always looking at new ideas and I have said from day one that the key thing to get us through this period is getting housing prices down.
That's easy, reduce rates to 4.5% and stop forclosures...
Oh wait....
How in the world can an interviewer sit there, listen to this, and not call him on it?
citizen energyecon writes:
Bush considering 'orderly' auto bankruptcy
Thursday December 18, 10:55 am ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The White House says a managed bankruptcy for automakers is one option being considered to help save the troubled industry.
White House press secretary Dana Perino told reporters Thursday that "we're going to do something." The Bush administration wants to avoid what it calls a "disorderly collapse" of car companies that would result in devastating job losses and sweeping economic problems. Expired b...bush_autos.html
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 12.18.08 - 11:04 am | #
Bobb Dobbs--Any idea what your friend's recent uptick in orders would equate to in year-over-year % change (I assume still negative). And any idea what he thinks the first quarter will look like year-over-year % change? Thanks! Dave
I think this is the actual quote MARIA, LET ME SAY WE DIDN'T FLOAT ANY PLANS. THERE WAS A LEAK ABOUT SOMETHING AND I'M THE SORT OF PERSON THAT'S ALWAYS LOOKING AT NEW IDEAS. BECAUSE I HAVE SAID FROM DAY ONE HERE THAT THE KEY THING TO GETTING THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS HAVING THE DECLINE IN HOUSING PRICES SLOW DOWN. THIS HOUSING CORRECTION. AND IN A BIG PART OF THAT IS GOING TO BE AVAILABILITY AND AFFORDABILITY OF INTEREST. MORTGAGE RATES. AND SO, AGAIN, THAT'S WHY THE FANNIE AND FREDDIE ACTION WAS SO CRITICAL. THAT'S WHY THINGS WE ARE DOING TO BUY THOSE SECURITIES ARE FANNIE AND FREDDIE. THE FED'S ACTION IS HUGE RIGHT AND WE REALLY SUPPORT THAT. AND WE'RE CONTINUING TO LOOK AT AND WE WOULDN'T BE DOING OUR JOBS IF WE DIDN'T LOOK AT OTHER IDEAS TO REDUCE MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES. BUT I DON'T THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY WE HAVE A PLAN THAT WE FLOA
Remember Octobers expiration(i think it was october). went from 105 to 127 in two days(ruf numbers) was explosive!
same in reverse here into close of contract.
keep watching that crack spread. was 5 negative, now only -2. going to flat or slightly positive by it's expiration.
The bank will use leveraged loans and commercial mortgage- backed debt, some of the securities blamed for generating the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, to fund executive compensation packages, people familiar with the matter said. The new policy applies only to managing directors and directors, the two most senior ranks at the Zurich-based company, according to a memo sent to employees today.
Its monstrously clever, said Dirk Hoffman-Becking, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. in London who has a market perform rating on Credit Suisse stock. From a shareholders perspective its great because youve got rid of some of the assets and regulators will be pleased because youve organized a risk transfer.
market moved slightly up on the news (not as bad as feared)
Cubs are going all the way... Woo - Woo!
The fundamental problem here is that we have a fundamental problem.
The banksters are too broke to go bankrupt.
To remedy, the confidence gamemasters -apologizing for abandoning the free market- are trying to fix the leaky dam with water.
Out taxpayer dollars streaming down the blackholios to bail out rich folks for bad speculative bets.
Where is the outrage? Muted. Numbed by the cumulative effects of a decades long 'manufacture of consent' assembly line that succeeded for the most part in drafting folks' inner monologues so that they would vote for those that did not have their best interests at heart.
Most people are not liars. As such they cannot process that the pablum presented to them over and over again is blatantly false. It just seems to be a ridiculous and outlandish assertion and any presenter of such claim is held to a standard that can not be easily proved in a timely soundbite fashion.
The strong dollar policy that resulted in a weak currency has been replaced by a wrong dollar policy - debasanistas revealing themselves as such.
This is good we are told. Inflation is necessary. Wealth confiscation is in your interest. Why if the business cycle is allowed to follow its' natural cycle folks might (shudder) begin behaving prudently.
Bubblevision and Hee Haw blather on ... interrogating the usual suspects beseeching them for actionable intelligence (an oxymoron) without reporting how intelligent the previous 'recommended actions' were.
Is that the bottom?, nope just another #@$%@hole.
The recovery is right around the corner, well perhaps the second corner, pay no attention to the distance separating patience from a patient.
What stocks should we buy? Well, good stocks. Can you be more specific?. Stocks that have good cash flow and strong balance sheets. Can you name names? Oh gosh no, I'm < koff, koff> not allowed, but I look forward to our next interview.
And on a personal note, this blogger may have foiled an armed robbery the other day just by my natural Irish surliness, folks on McMansion row are getting mugged, everyone seems to have a 'know someone who got robbed or shot' story and the local papers report that before our governor Rod Blagojevich got into politics he was a bookmaker on the North Side who regularly paid the Chicago mob to operate.
Sigh...
How long until opening day at Wrigley?
What a man gotta do to get his Worse-Than-1980 recession?
This waiting is killing me!
be patient is all
white house press conference on auto's now...
i'm smelling bailout.
I am starting to think none of you people have jobs... I never get to be first..
crewman, you need the mortgage pig from ken cooper. google cr companion.
and no, we're not all unemployed, yet.
It's getting easier to report the short list of what isn't in recession. Wait until the auto comonents supply pipeline seizes.
Crewman,
Imagine when we really don't have jobs. I hope the govt will give our family free broad band connection. Its not for me, but for my kids
i'm smelling bailout.
serf Alan Greenspend | Homepage | 12.18.08 - 10:25 am | #
Or at least some gyrations to stick it to the shorts.
Coming soon to an employer near you...
FedEx Cuts CEO Pay, Freezes Hiring as Volume Drops (Update2)
By Mary Jane Credeur
Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- FedEx Corp. Chief Executive Officer Fred Smith will take a 20 percent pay cut and salaries will be trimmed across the company as the package shipper battles the longest recession in a quarter century.
Smiths salary will fall by 20 percent, with reductions of as much as 10 percent for senior executives and 5 percent for other U.S. salaried personnel, FedEx said today in a statement. Company contributions to retirement accounts will be suspended for at least a year, and hiring will be frozen.
FedEx Cuts CEO Pay, Freezes Hiring as Volume Drops (Update5) - Bloomberg.com
The number of companies pre-announcing their December quarter results is staggering, and we still have two weeks left in the quarter! On top of the sheer number, the size of the revenue miss appears huge to me, not slight misses, but huge (AMD, ATHR two examples.) And what is really interesting (IMHO) is the fact that when they gave guidance in October, everyone knew that the economy was going into a tailspin, so they gave out extra-conservative guidance, and now they are missing it by a country mile! (Yet the markets are up over the last few weeksSanta Claus (rally) is alive and well I guess.)
ReBear..
I am going to steal my neighbors wireless....Hehe
Or at least some gyrations to stick it to the shorts.
Eric | 12.18.08 - 10:32 am | #
Wait, is it opex...?
well with all manufacturing stopped by the big three.. you gotta KNOW there's some cheese (forgive the pun) comin..
Crewman writes:
I am starting to think none of you people have jobs... I never get to be first..
I've had a job at GM for 14 years.
I'm writing to you from the downtown Detroit jobs bank. I haven't been on the assembly line in 7 years, but I enjoy surfing the net nowadays.
I am going to steal my neighbors wireless....Hehe
Crewman | 12.18.08 - 10:33 am | #
One of my neighbors changed their SSID (wireless identifier) to "Virus Infestation". I'll try someone else, thanks!
Jimbo
I am sorry. I meant it as a joke, i wish you the best
Hey G.Hathaway..... if you liked insurance puts last week, you'll love them today.
Eric,
I bought a cable splicing kit at Radio Shack... gonna get their cable tv too
Virus Infestation
Eric | 12.18.08 - 10:34 am | #
Try "Al Quaeda Terrorist Cell". It got a friend of mine a visit from the FBI, who politely asked that the SSID be changed so that they wouldn't have to field any more calls from the stupid people who believed it was possibly true. The face of the field agent betrayed such exhaustion that my friend didn't even argue (so she claims. If any part of the story is in doubt, it's the "she didn't argue" part.)
"One of my neighbors changed their SSID"
All of my neighbors do this. THERE IS NO SENSE OF COMMUNITY.
off toppic:
Just heard the Credit Suisse is using illiquid securities to pay the bonuses of those who are directors or above. Talk about enjoying the fruits of your labor.
"Wait until the auto components supply pipeline seizes."
Exactly and if and when that happens, it could very easily happen in much more vital sector: agriculture! The same logistical principles are used whether you are producing/distributing toy parts, food, electronics etc etc etc..
Then most of you guys are not going to be here reading and commenting... you will be out there trying to buy somewhere something to eat!
Anyone else getting creeped out by the intentional slow unveiling of names and ultimate dramaqueen challenge being waged by BO.
I don't know if my stomache can take another Oprah.
one_timmy writes:
Then most of you guys are not going to be here reading and commenting... you will be out there trying to buy somewhere something to eat!
~~~~
Can't the farmers just hire more illegals to harvest the crops when they can't buy farm equipment?
Anyone else getting creeped out by the intentional slow unveiling of names and ultimate dramaqueen challenge being waged by BO.
bearly | 12.18.08 - 10:45 am | #
SLOW?
He's filled more Cabinet positions more quickly than almost any transition team in history.
Eric +1
Eric writes:
\tOne of my neighbors changed their SSID (wireless identifier) to "Virus Infestation". I'll try someone else, thanks!
\t ---
What about my neighbor's network: "NoFreeWirelessForU"?
It's controlled by an ACL. 
To follow up on the gold talk of earlier, if you buy gold at the COMEX level, you are ultimately trading against the needs of international groups to maintain stability in "their" buying power, not yours.
Ultimately, every commodity trade boils to someone "having to" buy at some price rather than "wanting to".
For you traders out there, it might be helpful to keep that in mind. There is no philosophical/ moral reason outside of this i/r/t gold.
Similarly, an artificial "gold hedge" could be accomplished by "actual" currency users (not traders) by arbitraging several currencies.
It may be helpful to think of commodity markets as really existing only for users of the commodities, first and foremost. Traders and speculators operate way out on the periphery and can only affect prices in short bursts. Thankfully.
As an aside, if I had my druthers, I'd limit commodity market orders to actual market participants and REDUCE liquidity in terms of types of exchange participants.
At the very least, I'd limit outstanding non-participant (read: end user) orders to 5% of outstanding contracts.
Wynn: Priority in Vegas is to fill rooms
Vegas mogul bets on low rates to lure reluctant gamblers
| Reuters
Wynn Resorts Ltd, which next week is opening the Encore casino on the Las Vegas Strip, will sacrifice high room rates, and profit, in order to boost occupancy at its Vegas resorts, according to Chief Executive Steve Wynn.
"The last couple of weeks have been the worst I have ever seen. We had 53 percent occupancy for a couple of nights," Wynn told Reuters in an interview.
[SLOW?
He's filled more Cabinet positions more quickly than almost any transition team in history.
Eric]
I know. Maybe he can start dribbling out names 1/2 at a time, say first name one day and last name the next, like a Survivor series.
I would like to see a revised chart of the Four Bad Bears with the current bear starting at the Tech crash rather than Jan 2008.
I believe one would then see a better similarity to 1929.
Bernake may be right in his liquidity theory, but wrong in his timing, as I see the Bush Administration and the Greenspand Fed applying liquidity post the tech crash and creating the market revival to the 2007 high and the housing bubble. But then the Keynesian liquidity ran out of steam, effectiveness, and we have now.
As a casual student of the Great depression I wonder: did we not have two economic attacks on the economy at the same time: Keynes liquidity and bankruptcy deliquidation. Was it not the latter that really ended the great depression?
May become the same ultimate solution today, once the liquidity nonsense finishes its destruction.
@ guy with a rollformer
On the other end of the spectrum, ABC News/Good Morning America claims that GS is using taxpayer money to pay bonuses. Would be nice if this misuse of bailout funds finally gets some attention.
[no luck inserting a link; see yahoo homepage for more info]
I work for a manufacturer in So.CA, we are ok with work since we do a lot of Aerospace/defense type but credit tightening is killing cash flow...banks are paranoid now
er...(read: NOT end user)
That's twice for me this morning. I'm gonna shut up now.
Have a great day everyone.
I know. Maybe he can start dribbling out names 1/2 at a time, say first name one day and last name the next, like a Survivor series.
bearly | 12.18.08 - 10:54 am | #
Again, he's done it more quickly than anyone else.
Would you prefer he not announce names? I'm honestly confused as to what you find so troubling about someone making a decision, and then going up behind a podium to announce that decision. Beats the shit out of some small group gathered in a dark room somewhere.....
"I am starting to think none of you people have jobs..."
It's a great time to be a bum.
Bush considering 'orderly' auto bankruptcy
Thursday December 18, 10:55 am ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The White House says a managed bankruptcy for automakers is one option being considered to help save the troubled industry.
White House press secretary Dana Perino told reporters Thursday that "we're going to do something." The Bush administration wants to avoid what it calls a "disorderly collapse" of car companies that would result in devastating job losses and sweeping economic problems.
Expired
I can't wait for all these new officials to start sticking their fingers in the markets. The more the merrier. These people are going to have a press conference a day next year explaining their plans to restore confidence.
"I am starting to think none of you people have jobs..."
No just positioned enough not to have to work...ya it sucks I know.
I don't know if my stomache can take another Oprah.
bearly | 12.18.08 - 10:45 am | #
bearly, don't be such a sore loser.
. . . though it's gotta hurt to be out $800 in this economy [rimshot]
At least the money went to good people, like CR and Obama supporters.
OT- Sold another 1/3 of my DTO for 141 (bought monday @ 111, posted here). I like the DZZ (gold short) position, but breakeven stop. Stocks appear to want to grind sideways up into a topping formation by year end (on light volume, of course).
Interestingly, it's the first time the manufacturing executives did NOT get negative before the recession.
Nobody saw it coming!
Can we say worst scenario not priced in yet?
The White House says a managed bankruptcy for automakers is one option being considered to help save the troubled industry.
My gods, they are actually considering the reasonably intelligent and responsible choice. I may faint.
Of course, they didn't make their buddies in the financial industry take their medicine, AND they're still just "considering" this, so forgive me if I don't do the Dance of Joy just right now.
its a looooooong strung out thinking process this auto bail/bk.
My gods, they are actually considering the reasonably intelligent and responsible choice. I may faint.
Mostly Lurker | 12.18.08 - 11:14 am | #
They can afford to say that. They won't actually be around to implement anything.
Market Watch playing this as 'Philly Bounce
oh sort of on topic
cooper tire closing albany ga plant 1300 jobs gone.
had to make a choice. ms plant won... a reprive?
President-elect Barack Obama has nominated Dan Tarullo to an open seat on the board of governors of the Federal Reserve Board.
They can afford to say that. They won't actually be around to implement anything.
That would be why, as I said, I ain't actually popping the champagne just yet. talk vs. final decision vs. Actual Competent Execution of the plan are 3 extremely different animals. I hope the Obama team would do a better job with issue #3 than their predecessors, but I am fully aware that hope is really all I have to go with on that front.
Eric,
Yeah -- I actually am buying more puts on the insurers. But not until end of day tomorrow. This bounce is ridiculous!
Who knew a dead cat could bounce so high?
Most people are not liars. As such they cannot process that the pablum presented to them over and over again is blatantly false
"A new survey shows the average person tells four lies a day, or 1,460 a year for a total of 88,000 by the age of 60, and the most common is: "I'm fine."
And to think that most Americans believe that social sciences are a waste of time and money.
A larger focus on social sciences could reduce your energy dependency and help you focus on what truly makes people happy.
I smell a rally.
Looks like they are trying to hold the market flat so we can get the nice 400 point blast when the auto bailout gets announced.
" Dave of SV writes:
Bobb Dobbs--Any idea what your friend's recent uptick in orders would equate to in year-over-year % change (I assume still negative). And any idea what he thinks the first quarter will look like year-over-year % change? Thanks! Dave
Dave of SV | 12.18.08 - 11:51 am | # "
No. (Sniff, sniff) Journalist?
Now, most Americans are scared of even returning to life as lived in 1981 - for reasons that still don't make much sense to me. Living within in your means isn't avoidable, in the long run.
I'm starting to understand why I've a different attitude on debt than most of my Xer peers. For various micro and macroeconomic reasons, My family/hometown never really stopped living like they were in 1981 until the early clinton years. It wasn't scary, it was my childhood, and a return to that would be just fine (assuming I can keep my Internet Access...)
Cash payments representing distributions of a portion of the award may be made to participants in the future contingent on the performance of the underlying assets, Dougan and Calello said in the memo. Cash distributions will not be made for several years.
The bank said it expects to begin annual payments after five years.
While Credit Suisse doesnt say how many managing directors and directors work at the investment bank, the number is in the thousands.
By the end of next March either oil will be in the 60s or Gold will be below $500. They cant go in different directions for too long and the long term ratio (100 years) is 15 to 1. That being said, I have no idea which happens - although I have to think that printing dollars will lead to both eventually going much higher while asset deflation continues.
"Would you prefer he not announce names? I'm honestly confused as to what you find so troubling about someone making a decision, and then going up behind a podium to announce that decision. Beats the shit out of some small group gathered in a dark room somewhere....."
I'm still waiting for the constitutional ammendment to ban gay marriage. /sarcasm off
Poll must have been taken on the west coast...
DANM writes:
Most people are not liars. As such they cannot process that the pablum presented to them over and over again is blatantly false
"A new survey shows the average person tells four lies a day, or 1,460 a year for a total of 88,000 by the age of 60, and the most common is: "I'm fine."
Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
Interesting selling on strength...
Popeye's olfactory glands are available for syndication in exchange for an appropriate percentage paid upfront in krugerands.
Oil Equations - can you elaborate a little more - does that mean you see oil dropping at contract expiration?
rent_to_own writes:
'I remember 81 very well. The atmosphere is much much worse today.'
1981 was the result of a long grind down - Americans were not really expecting anything else, so they preserved what little savings they had left, having become as thrifty as possible. It was almost, but not quite, a sea change in attitude.
Now look at today - debt as far as the eye can see, blind optimism being replaced by a blind foreboding, likely to transform itself into blind fear.
Very True, and Reagan had not fully opened the Casino yet, for 24 hour gambling. The economy still produced things, rather than creating them out of financial instruments, or, better yet, just stealing them.
Top hats and monocles for everyone!
Popeye writes:
Popeye's olfactory glands are available for syndication in exchange for an appropriate percentage paid upfront in krugerands.
Popeye | 12.18.08 - 12:02 pm | #
Lightning crashes..a new mother cries
Today IS the January contracts expiration. That means if your a specualtor or refiner, and you don't want delivery, you need to exit the contract by today's close or expect your 1000 barrels coming to a pipe near you!
So I guess another half million jobs lost was already priced in? Craziness...
If the bailout is on the way why is GM down 14%?
Comrade Kristina,
It is only crazy on an absolute scale, but that's not where we live - is it ? If you think the hard core rich are going to surrender their relative position over a little mortgage speculation, I'm willing to sell a fee simple absolute in the Brooklyn Bridge for a very reasonable exponential sum.
skent - GM dumped chrysler and hence some component manufactures dumped GM
Its a vicious circle which could result in RicK wagoner selling his 120 rolexes
I was quite young in the early 80's but I remember things seeming far less bleak then. The recessions were being caused by governmental policy to bring down inflation. It was bad, and many didn't agree with the policy, but everybody thought the Fed was in control. People were facing ruined lives; but at least they understood somebody else was doing it to them for a logical selfish reason and perhaps it was even for the best for the country overall. There was very little thought to going into a new Depression.
This is much worse because the Fed is patently not in control; most people don't understand why things are getting so bad; and even those of us in the know are at a loss for the mechanisms (e.g. negative TIP spreads, who's buying the long bond, oil WTF). People aren't being wiped out by other people who can theoretically be negotiated with, bargained with, or voted against; we're being wiped out by an mysterious implacable inhuman force and it seems to be completely out of our control.
"I'm willing to sell a fee simple absolute in the Brooklyn Bridge for a very reasonable exponential sum.
Popeye | 12.18.08 - 12:14 pm | # "
Why not make a derivative out of it, and sell it for smaller exponential sums to investors all over the world?
Comrade Kristina,
Jack be nimble.
Fair Economist,
nods--my point was sort of that I would rejoice if we just went back to 1981, and the irony is that if we had kept the basic attitude toward money that society had then, we probably would be looking at a return to 1981 as the worst case scenario, instead of 1932.
Crewman writes:
I am starting to think none of you people have jobs... I never get to be first..
Crewman | 12.18.08 - 10:26 am | #
yes we do
being HERE is our job!
Saying you are fine when you feel like crap isn't a lie. This is an automatic social answer that by common consent means nothing unless you are a dr, or someone else actually interested in health.
I have a job, I worked until 1am this morning, then drank til 4am...CR is my hangover remedy.
Good point liz, I doubt people want to hear "I'm awful, I just had a colonoscopy, I have gout and my husband is cheating on me" They really just want to hear "fine"...
nods--my point was sort of that I would rejoice if we just went back to 1981, and the irony is that if we had kept the basic attitude toward money that society had then, we probably would be looking at a return to 1981 as the worst case scenario, instead of 1932.
\t Mostly Lurker | \t \t \t \t12.18.08 - 12:23 pm | #
Mostly Lurker | 12.18.08 - 12:23 pm | #
Agree. I'm one of the older boomers and, contrary to what some have alleged, we older boomers remember our depression era parent's warnings. Some of us hope 1981 will be the worst it gets. We have saved, not lived beyond our means and instinctively tightened our belts at the first sign of a problem.
"scary deficits writes:
Bloomberg.com refer=home
The bank will use leveraged loans and commercial mortgage- backed debt, some of the securities blamed for generating the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, to fund executive compensation packages, people familiar with the matter said. The new policy applies only to managing directors and directors, the two most senior ranks at the Zurich-based company, according to a memo sent to employees today."
Sorry if I am behind the curve on this news but are they giving toxic waste AS the bonus? Can companies force executives to refund past bonuses in exchange for toxic waste at the fantasy Level 3 valuations (without triggering a "market" at the inflated price)?
Mostly Lurker, I think it would have been even easier to evade things than that. If Greenspan had kept rates reasonably low - say 3% - in 2001-2004, and the regulators had stopped the truly psychotic "innovations" like CDOs, liar loans, option ARMs, etc., i think we would have had an 80's level or less recession then and would be OK now. It took some truly insane policies to get us to this state.
Comrade Kristina, where in the Panhandle are you? I'm visiting South Alabama.
People were ready to take the medicine in 1981 because of a lost decade after Nixon refused to apply the medicine in 1971.
We are in 1971.
Enjoy the next decade of idiotic attempts to avoid reality.
As an older boomer I actually wouldn't mind returning to 1958. We had a tv a car, a washing machine, a 4 bedroom house, with smaller rooms on a shady street. One of each only.
But I'd want the sense of community back too.
We didn't have a dryer, a dishwasher, a microwave, or of course, the internet. I could do without those things, except the internet, and maybe the dryer. Hanging clothes is a drag.
FE, Panama City FL
Sorry to be like a dog worrying with a bone, Kristina, but did you ever check your note to see if it could go lower? And the margin. . .
My skills yearn to be used.
o offense, but res ipsa loquitur.
lawyerliz writes:
Sorry to be like a dog worrying with a bone
Yeah liz, it has a floor where it's at, can never go lower.
Margin is 6.95
Oh and lifetime interest cap is 16.72 it's currently at 10.22
I called a short term rally, I stand by that call.
Comrade Kristina writes:
Good point liz, I doubt people want to hear "I'm awful, I just had a colonoscopy, I have gout and my husband is cheating on me"
Do people still get gout?
I thought that was like a medieval disease that disappeared with leprosy and consumption?
Comrade Kristina - Well, I'm about as close to Panama City as you can get in AL and my mom has some good friends there. So if you want to meet for coffee or lunch contact me through the email on the profile on my web page. Will be here for about 2 weeks.
I guess that little blip from a few months ago was a result of the stimulus? (scamulous?) Gee that turned out to be a really effective use of taxpayer funds didnt it?
CK, that loan of yours is exhibit A for "usurious exploitative loans". I've always thought the real purpose of that kind of subprime is to steal the house and it was kind of an accident that the brokers made massive fees through serial refi's.
FE, I had the same thought when I signed it...Had no other choice but to lose the family home though. I'm refinancing now, or trying anyway. I'm still above water though by about 30-40K/
paulson and bush want the tthe rest of the 700 billion for his bankster friends
they aint gonna loan no stinkin 15 billion to the auto makers unless they get the 350 billion
no loose situation for bushco break the union and no deals for anyone
or
well give you 15b for the rabble and unwashed masses if the elite get 350b
sounds like business as usual
Do people still get gout?
I thought that was like a medieval disease that disappeared with leprosy and consumption?
Sometimes, yes. For most people to get it you need a high-protein low-vitamin diet that's rare and easily fixed today. But with certain metabolic and kidney problems you can get it anyway.
FE, I'll see what my schedule looks like this week and shoot you an email.
sniff... sniff... sniff ????? rally is not over.
.... available for sindication......krukerands up front
fear tomorrow if you are short, I smell a counter trend rally.
lawyerliz writes:
Saying you are fine when you feel like crap isn't a lie. This is an automatic social answer that by common consent means nothing unless you are a dr, or someone else actually interested in health.
lawyerliz | 12.18.08 - 12:27 pm |
It always starts with a white lie...
How are you today?
I'm fine
That's good. I guess the markets are treating you fine! Can you recommend me a fund?
Maybe you can be part of my club. Let's see....
Thred music (yes, I know it's kind of late for that, but still...)
YouTube -
I was bruised and battered and I couldnt tell
What I felt
I was unrecognizable to myself
I saw my reflection in a window I didnt know
My own face
Oh brother are you gonna leave me
Wastin´away
On the streets of philadelphia
I walked the avenue till my legs felt like stone
I heard the voices of friends vanished and gone
At night I could hear the blood in my veins
Black and whispering as the rain
On the streets of philadelphia
Aint no angel gonna greet me
Its just you and I my friend
My clothes dont fit me no more
I walked a thousand miles
Just to slip the skin
The night has fallen, Im lyinawake
I can feel myself fading away
So receive me brother with your faithless kiss
Or will we leave each other alone like this
On the streets of philadelphia
Music and Lyrics by B. Bernanke
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZ_4Q_x2fH4
Manufacturing is toast. When they shut down our sacred auto manufacturing, you know it is the end!
Do people still get gout?
I thought that was like a medieval disease that disappeared with leprosy and consumption?
Well, I believe "consumption" is another term for tuberculosis and I think that's making a comeback. My coworker is suffering from gout as we speak, and he's pretty good about watching his health and diet. So medieval times seem to be making a comeback, including on the economic front.
Inventory levels?
Any way to segregate inventories based on supply chains, IE, finished goods, so we know which stats are leading and which are trailing?
Not One Cent | Homepage | 12.18.08 - 11:59 am |
I'm astonished (even though it's the NYP) that they would identify waxing, wine, hair, entertainment, cable, etc. as NEEDS vs. WANTS.
WTF? These are all "wants" in my opinion. Food, heat/ac, rent/mortgage payment are all needs in my book, the rest is just frivolous spending that can and should be cut back when called for. Seriously, a sales clerk at a cigar shop spends more than $1k per month on this shit? Ridiculous!
Comrade Kristina writes:
Oh and lifetime interest cap is 16.72 it's currently at 10.22
Comrade Kristina | 12.18.08 - 12:44 pm
I could have sworn that yesterday you said it was currently at 12%.
Either way, I hope you can save your home.
Who knew a dead cat could bounce so high?
Remember physics 101 (or just playing with rubber balls on the sidewalk as a kid)--the length and velocity of the drop are factors in the bounce.
rto,
Damn, that is both funny and sad...and true.
Meredith Whitney is right on once again. Yesterday got a letter from Chase that my $20,000+ credit limit card is being closed due to inactivity for 2 yrs. If I'd have known that, I would've used it, tho they probably still would have cancelled it. I've had that card forever. Used to love the 1.9% till payoff balance transfer. I should have framed that offer for posterity.
"The White House says a managed bankruptcy for automakers is one option being considered to help save the troubled industry."
they got their chops managing bk's with the Lehman debacle, no?
Buying puts on insurance seems very risky to me. Most of the fixed income assets they own are AAA agencies, munis and treasuries - all of which have traded up huge in the past couple weeks. Book values for most insurers got a big shot in the arm.
Uh, how do you pay bonuses with illiquid assets???
Here guys, you now own a load of shit. You can't touch it, spend it, or invest it. But it might be worth something someday.
--
I was early but things in the economy are now on the track that I forecasted three years ago.
The following are my comments on Treasury Yield & Housing Prices made at the beginning of 2006 (based on my forecast of recession in late 2006/early 2007 and depression in late 2008/ early 2009, early as usual, and guilty as charged):
January 3, 2006
Treasury Yield & Housing Prices
Jas: The 10-Year US treasuries will fall below 3% some time between 2006Q3-2007Q2 [I was early on this, which is the case with most of my forecasts]. Then, below 2% before the end of 2008.
Kevin asked: How will the housing bubble burst if 10 year treasury yields fall to 2%?
Hello Kevin,
I am guided only by history. Two examples should suffice:
When Treasury yields decline in a Depression, or anticipating a Depression, should housing prices go up? When 20% population is unemployed, counting those who stopped looking for a job or permanently discouraged, should housing prices go up? MOST IMPORTANTLY, WHEN THE NUMBER OF EMPTY HOUSING UNITS IS AT HISTORIC HIGH, SHOULD HOUSING PRICES KEEP GOING UP?
One has to be an economic ignoramus to believe that the housing prices in the bubble areas of the US will not go down substantially. A very easy prediction: THE PERCENTAGE DECLINE IN THE HOUSING PRICES IN CALIFORNIA WILL EXCEED THE PERCENT DECLINE IN 10-YEAR NOTE YIELD! When the yield goes below 2%, California home prices will be down
between 60-80%. And I am being conservative! I can't wait to find out: How long economies supported on fraud, notably those of Manhattan and Silly.con Valley, hold up? The housing prices in the economies supported on fraud WILL turn into rubble.
Jas
I am reading "Blood Money: Wasted Billions, Lost Lives, and Corporate Greed in Iraq" by T. Christian Miller.
It is a pretty good book for undertanding what is going on with Paulson et all.
In Iraq it was no bid, no explanation, given to friends of the administration reconstruction. No questions were invited, no explanations given. It has not turned out well.
It is the same method of operation we have seen with TARP and all the other funding. No one knows where the money went, and they refuse to tell.
It will be interesting to see if the same staggering level of imcompetence, bribery, and fraud is happening again. Well not again, more like continuing. I already think I know the answer unfortunately.
hi Gavshire,
Can you please post your put picks?
"It will be interesting to see if the same staggering level of imcompetence, bribery, and fraud is happening again."
I think it will be at a more staggering level
Did they pledge those illiquid assets at the discount window to payoff bonuses?
Big Foot writes:
Buying puts on insurance seems very risky to me. Most of the fixed income assets they own are AAA agencies, munis and treasuries - all of which have traded up huge in the past couple weeks. Book values for most insurers got a big shot in the arm
Valid point, but I think you are underestimating the rest of the toxic crap on their books. Remember that the CEO of Hartford said that they couldn't value their assets. That was before the runup of treasuries gave him an adequate capital position (for now). They also own a crapload of CRE and real estate. I'll take my chances.
The oil bubble in graphs...
Bakersfield Bubble: $23 BBL. The oil bubble.
"It will be interesting to see if the same staggering level of imcompetence, bribery, and fraud is happening again."
I think that expecting the same level is too optimistic.
My puts -- buying primarily March/April, though I have some Jan/Feb exposure:
WY, SPG, SHLD, SPG, JPM, VNO, TIF, UNP, BNI, MET, IBM, HOG, COF, BBY, GS, MS, COH, HIG, AMZN, PRU, WFC, BAC.
Long gold miners and PMs.
Good luck Gav.
I'd stick to the life and annuity companies which sounds like your strategy. I think its a tough play (as is anything in this market) but i understand your logic.
By the way, you pay bonuses in illiquid assets by giving your employees those illiquid assets - so instead of cash, the bankers at CS will get hung bridge loans and some other crappy paper. They also get it at face value not market....
No time to read thread.
Not as bad as 81.
I remember 81 very well. The atmosphere is much much worse today.
That red line will be heading further down.
I will also be adding puts in DB and HBC. But no position currently.
And I recommend some patience. I can easily see this rally lasting for a couple more weeks on low volume.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
"OT- Sold another 1/3 of my DTO for 141 (bought monday @ 111, posted here). I like the DZZ (gold short) position, but breakeven stop."
Congrats, puts you ahead of Rich on the oil trade, but he is ahead on the PM side. I can see now you have more of a short term perspective while he is (comparatively) longer horizon.
Thanks for update. Let us know how DZZ works out. I'm holding some GLD just for the trend. FXE as well for the dollar hedge.
ot
China cuts price of gasoline..
China cuts prices for gasoline, diesel - MarketWatch
the catch-they raised consumption tax by from .2 yuan per litre to 1 yuan litre..inflation or?
Data point:
My friend who works in industrial magnetron tubes has reported an increase in orders after they essentially ceased in early October.
Not huge numbers, but they're off the bottom. The tubes are used in industrial-scale processing: cooking, burning, radiating, sterilizing, etc.
I assume this means that some manufacturers overreacted when cutting orders to suppliers, and have now determined at what level they actually need replacement parts and raw materials for current business levels.
My SSID is "Illuminati", I havnt had any visitors yet.
I'm not as erudite as a lot of the folks who post here, and I have never professed the wisdom to call anything more than the short term. That said, I smell a rally.
Bob Dobbs - thanks for that data point. See similar things. Definately not a surge of orders but the decline has ended in many of our business and we're seeing a very modest uptick.
We didnt float any plan, Paulson said. I am always looking at new ideas and I have said from day one that the key thing to get us through this period is getting housing prices down.
Thanks GH.
'I remember 81 very well. The atmosphere is much much worse today.'
1981 was the result of a long grind down - Americans were not really expecting anything else, so they preserved what little savings they had left, having become as thrifty as possible. It was almost, but not quite, a sea change in attitude.
Now look at today - debt as far as the eye can see, blind optimism being replaced by a blind foreboding, likely to transform itself into blind fear.
People weren't as scared in 1981 - they had faced years of want already, and were at least able to handle it.
Now, most Americans are scared of even returning to life as lived in 1981 - for reasons that still don't make much sense to me. Living within in your means isn't avoidable, in the long run.
Paulson: I am always looking at new ideas and I have said from day one that the key thing to get us through this period is getting housing prices down.
That's easy, reduce rates to 4.5% and stop forclosures...
Oh wait....
How in the world can an interviewer sit there, listen to this, and not call him on it?
That is simply a proveable bald faced lie.
'Carservatorship' so as not to trigger CDS.
citizen energyecon writes:
Bush considering 'orderly' auto bankruptcy
Thursday December 18, 10:55 am ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The White House says a managed bankruptcy for automakers is one option being considered to help save the troubled industry.
White House press secretary Dana Perino told reporters Thursday that "we're going to do something." The Bush administration wants to avoid what it calls a "disorderly collapse" of car companies that would result in devastating job losses and sweeping economic problems.
Expired b...bush_autos.html
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 12.18.08 - 11:04 am | #
Bobb Dobbs--Any idea what your friend's recent uptick in orders would equate to in year-over-year % change (I assume still negative). And any idea what he thinks the first quarter will look like year-over-year % change? Thanks! Dave
what is happening to oil ?
INO Equities Stocks Indexes - U.S $ INDEX (NYBOT:DX) Price Chart and Quote
DX getting a boot in the backside - somebody got a bit tired of that relentless slide...
Thaksin writes:
what is happening to oil ?
It is falling. Deflation is a bitch.
Actually, let me correct that....he did say the solution was lower prices...he didn't claim to be working toward that end.
I smell a rally.
why a 5% downside today ?
US wants to take OPEC to cleaners?
Popeye writes:
I smell a rally.
I hope you're right. Those DEC $6 UYG calls are burning a hole in my pocket.
Will the 10-yr breach 2%?
I think this is the actual quote
MARIA, LET ME SAY WE DIDN'T FLOAT ANY PLANS. THERE WAS A LEAK ABOUT SOMETHING AND I'M THE SORT OF PERSON THAT'S ALWAYS LOOKING AT NEW IDEAS. BECAUSE I HAVE SAID FROM DAY ONE HERE THAT THE KEY THING TO GETTING THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS HAVING THE DECLINE IN HOUSING PRICES SLOW DOWN. THIS HOUSING CORRECTION. AND IN A BIG PART OF THAT IS GOING TO BE AVAILABILITY AND AFFORDABILITY OF INTEREST. MORTGAGE RATES. AND SO, AGAIN, THAT'S WHY THE FANNIE AND FREDDIE ACTION WAS SO CRITICAL. THAT'S WHY THINGS WE ARE DOING TO BUY THOSE SECURITIES ARE FANNIE AND FREDDIE. THE FED'S ACTION IS HUGE RIGHT AND WE REALLY SUPPORT THAT. AND WE'RE CONTINUING TO LOOK AT AND WE WOULDN'T BE DOING OUR JOBS IF WE DIDN'T LOOK AT OTHER IDEAS TO REDUCE MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES. BUT I DON'T THINK IT IS FAIR TO SAY WE HAVE A PLAN THAT WE FLOA
Popeye writes:
I smell a rally.
maybe that dead cat didn't bounce
january contract expiration.
Remember Octobers expiration(i think it was october). went from 105 to 127 in two days(ruf numbers) was explosive!
same in reverse here into close of contract.
keep watching that crack spread. was 5 negative, now only -2. going to flat or slightly positive by it's expiration.
Credit Suisse to Use Illiquid Assets to Pay Bonuses (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
The bank will use leveraged loans and commercial mortgage- backed debt, some of the securities blamed for generating the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, to fund executive compensation packages, people familiar with the matter said. The new policy applies only to managing directors and directors, the two most senior ranks at the Zurich-based company, according to a memo sent to employees today.
Its monstrously clever, said Dirk Hoffman-Becking, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. in London who has a market perform rating on Credit Suisse stock. From a shareholders perspective its great because youve got rid of some of the assets and regulators will be pleased because youve organized a risk transfer.
I hope you're right. Those DEC $6 UYG calls are burning a hole in my pocket.
Gavshire Hathaway | 12.18.08 - 11:55 am | #
I hope both of you are right. My skf trigger finger won't be satified until presented with a 9 handle.
Where is Rob Dawg?
"Outraged"--tax hikes crimp lifestyle of "school consultant"'s MONTHLY costs:
Wine = $480/mo
Theater/entertainment = $800/mo
What is a school consultant? Does a school consultant advise the educrats on the year's trendiest vintage?
OUTRAGED NYERS HAMMER TAX HIKE - NYPOST.com
thx alambka