Gary:
How does one separate the New Deal from the post-WWII reconstruction project? We'd solve our overcapacity problem in a heartbeat today if we leveled Germany and Japan.
Sorry, regarding the 2.5 times - misreading the chart
God Shammgod
Yes, I compared the components that are counted by the Census as being outstanding mortgage debt (total, residential, commercial) and the differences are nothing more than rounding/survey errors.
reptillian writes:
With this much debt, CDSs don't seem like such a problem. I'd want some insurance, too, if I lent this much.
reptillian | 12.19.08 - 2:27 pm | #
what if the "insurer" cannot pay that insurance, surely you would not expect taxpayers to do it?
i know you know this, you've posted clever stuff before ...
ot-recant stupid statment on oil-it just touched 32.90's \t cd cd | 12.19.08 - 2:27 pm | #
Anyone surprised by the magnitude of oil's collapse? I mean, the speed of the climb to $147 seemed like a manipulated bubble to me, but this is a huge collapse.
You also have to question the powers of OPEC, which I suppsoe people have been doing for decades. Still, interesting towatch in a train wreck sort of way.
re: oil. I'm looking to start scaling in. This is for a LONG term hold. Seems like every option has it's down-sides. DIG is oil, gas and exploration. USO has slippage issues as contracts roll. Buying individual stocks can blow up on you.
Any recommendations for good trading vehicles that I can use for oil for buy and forget it for a few years type investing?
Portland OR metro has been shut down this whole week...snow and abnormal cold led to iced over streets. Nobody is getting much Christmas shopping done out here. Not a lot of gasoline consumption either. Economic activity slowed to a crawl...
How does one separate the New Deal from the post-WWII reconstruction project? We'd solve our overcapacity problem in a heartbeat today if we leveled Germany and Japan.
anonymous | 12.19.08 - 2:20 pm | #
That is not funny. And if you're serious, you ought to be in Guantanamo.
i actually looked at a geodesic dome as a rental property investment, believe it or not. it was packed with miserable college kids, and actually cashflowed great. but the dome itself was a leaky, cold nightmare.
I looked at UGA and it had pretty low volume, 59k. I will look at RSX further. I don't know though it's got Russia in it's name and I'm half Hungarian so I got a bit queasy when I looked at that one (:
No surprise re oil prices here. Once a well is put into production, the marginal cost to pump a barrel is relatively low. The biggest proportion of oil cost is the capital cost; finding it, drilling the well, and linking the well to pipeline network. As long as price per barrel is enough to provide positive contribution margin for a well, the well will be kept in operation. Based on historical trends that breakeven price is quite low.
I met Bucky at a colloquia at 'tute. Strange little gnome who gave off the aura of someone whose physical presence was a mere convenience of the moment.
ever read NYT and it's laughable mainstream prop pieces. cancelled WSJ when murdoch bought it (seriously, why bother). no TV since the early 90's. i get my propaganda from bloomberg.
the entire Mainstream media is a party organ and the two party system is republicrats in a never ending incestuous embrace.
choose everything that enters your head. do not be a passive receptor connected to the constant feed.
you can go ad free and live without marketing. it is easy and free. it also clears your thoughts and keeps you from making stupid references that only work among couch potatoEs
Having reached Peak Credit; we somehow have a workout? Transfer individual and corporate and municipal debt over to the federal balance sheet and hold it in Level 3?
Devalue the currency simultaneously and extend time horizons on repayment schedule?
I think this was the problem with Titanic. Bulkheads, sure. Compartmentilization, sure. But not watertight. Even so if you slowly fill each bulkhead up and seal it, but do so to all of them--same outcome.
Debt repudiation & bankruptcy at bat!
Hole from without, or turn valvecocks ourselves. Sink or scuttle, same outcome. Sunk dreadnought.
also, i'd recommend KOL if it goes back under ten, if you're looking for long-term energy holds. KOL will be a great hold if obama successfully reflates.
I'm actually reading through the Tilson powerpoint presentation, pretty long at 116 slides and a lot of data per slide. Gonna be a while to get through it but worth it IMO.
otishertz, we choose our poisons. Bloomberg is among yours, if objective journalism is what you'd rather have.
Until quite recently their breaking stories about indicators (employment, GDP, etc.) were RELENTLESSLY spun with phrases like "will therefore avoid a recession," etc. They had no factual basis for saying this, Google cache it and see what I mean...
All things are relative...Bloomberg can be awful, but beats Cheerleader News Broadcasting Channel, which makes me want to put my foot through the screen (Maria Bartiromo, Dennis Kneale, Cramer but above all merry sunshine herself, Erin Burnett, are the worst offenders). Marc Hoffman who runs the joint is a jerk, fish rots from the head down.
it is time for intelligent people to stop planning to shoot others and set a different tone.
otishertz
I'm not so sure. There once was a group of very intelligent people who planned and went forward with a strategy that included shooting people. We call them The Founding Fathers.
otishertz writes:
the only way there will be revolution in this country is if it comes in the form of a soldier revolt.
there is no privacy, no p[lace to hide, and no resistance.
the best we will get is brutally smashed riots until our soldiers get tired of shooting americans
take mama to the revolution, if they shoot her too, then all hope is lost. No real Am would shoot mama...still not too sure about those Germans, though...
otishertz writes:
the only way there will be revolution in this country is if it comes in the form of a soldier revolt.
You mean like if hundreds of thousands of citizen soldiers come home their jobs gone and no jobs and military cutbacks and repudiation of promised benefits? Review the Bonus Marches of near a century past to see how very close we came.
Week before Christmas, and it's snowing here on Cape Cod. Gives me a new lease on life. Be well! - freddyinp'town
My aunt owns the yellow house next to the entrance to the monument. This is the best time of year; Labor Day to Christmas. Enjoy it.
I gave up the NYTimes years ago. But I was drawn to Krugman's most recent column about Madoff, since it's such a significant story. He's right, as I think he implies, that the greatest menace to the US is the spread of corruption throughout the social body. Inefficient financial systems can be corrected. Corruption can be fatal.
The 1930 census figure for the US population was ~123 million people. Throw in a ~25% unemployment rate, and I'm in the ballpark of 22-30 million people out of work. The 2000 census figure for the US population was ~281 million people. Throw in a "moderate" unemployment U-3 rate of 10%, and I get a ballpark range of ~20-26 million people out of work.
The basic numbers of this forthcoming event are large, and I using the U-3 number and a "low" possible unemployment rate--which I don't buy with the pending Retail Sector's implosion. As an academic exercise, throw in the upcoming U-6 estimates and/or 25% unemployment rate gives much better numbers, and I'm left wondering: What kinds of impact will this upcoming Deprecession (tm) be on the American popu
While I'm a fan of short stories, I take a little longer approach with my investing than worrying about 1,000 point rallies based on ponzi schemes (Unless of course you were referring to the S&P) I had to listen to people all last year say that SRS would never go to $120. I outlasted them as well.
Also, in regards to earlier retail notes, NY is getting slammed by a storm, and they are predicting two more before xmas. In a survey last week only 32% of NY retailers reported that they were happy with the numbers so far and were hoping for a huge last week.
Obama tries to address the problem of corruption in finance. I'm not certain I would call it a problem of ethics, however. Apparently it's more serious than that.
freddy's dead said: "Until quite recently their breaking stories about indicators (employment, GDP, etc.) were RELENTLESSLY spun with phrases like "will therefore avoid a recession," etc. They had no factual basis for saying this, Google cache it and see what I mean..."
Until very recently spin wasn't even required, because the economic indicators weren't that bad. The economy simply fell off a cliff since September.
Employment is a great example of this. There have been 1.91 million net jobs lost from non-farm payrolls this year, but 1.26 million (nearly 2/3) of that came from September to November.
Real income after transfers (another one of the NBER indicators) is another good example. I was updating some spreadsheets the other day and I had some "vintage" data from June showing that real income had reached a new peak as recently as February (2008). With subsequent data revisions, however, that peak was shifted backwards 5 months to October, 2007!
There's a reason why the ultimate arbiter of recessions, the NBER, couldn't call this recession with confidence until a year after it started: There wasn't sufficient data to prove it until it had been underway for a long time.
Obama tries to address the problem of corruption in finance. I'm not certain I would call it a problem of ethics, however. Apparently it's more serious than that.
He looks like he's trying to do the right thing, but i don't know, if he tries to change the system too fast. It may end up swallowing him.
"Until very recently spin wasn't even required, because the economic indicators weren't that bad. The economy simply fell off a cliff since September."
Except the warning signs were there and growing for months before hand. It wasn't even that hard to see this coming.
since the option ARMs were often used for houses over $600,000 it makes me wonder how many of those expensive homes that are currently for sale and that are refusing to lower their prices are people trying to sell before the loan recasts. If they get their price they come out ahead. If not, they walk away after it recasts.
I have no idea what would be adequate. Anyone? Pavel Chichikov | 12.19.08 - 3:23 pm | #
Chapter 11 with government DIP financing. Just rip the bandaid off already.
As you say, the UAW is toast under any scenario. I fear that with today's can kicking action, and with Democrats coming to power though, it will be another 100+ billion before the UAW wises up. Not that they have any incentive to hurry the process, mind you.
There's a reason why the ultimate arbiter of recessions, the NBER, couldn't call this recession with confidence until a year after it started: There wasn't sufficient data to prove it until it had been underway for a long time. - Sebastian
No! The NBER was just not willing to consider the more than sufficient data that proved a recession until long after it became impossible to deny the data. They had more than enough in May to call December '07. I am still of the opinion that ultimately they will back date to October. Don't dare say they needed Q4 08 data to call a Q4 07 event.
i agree that the data, viewed in isolation, may not have have been bad. however, when you viewed multiple data points and saw the trend was materially declining and acellerating, all you had to do was a 2-4 quarter extrapolation to see that the data would very likely be in the "bad" territory. of course not all trends continue in the same direction, but many should have at least have put a probability on the trend continuation (based on the severity of the trend and from what level we came from) and that probability was high enough such that it warranted extreme caution starting in late 2007.
just like if a company reports +2% growth for the quarter but the first month it was +6% the secon month it was +2% and the third month it was -2%......even though the quarter was a +2% growth, the trend was far more telling than the stand aolne number and the trend was a better indicator as to what the next few months might be.
Prepackaged or private bankruptcy were every single stakeholder has to take a haircut.
The problem is that one way or another, without protectionism, the unions are toast. The unions and management can't keep acting like adversaries; if one goes down, the other goes with it. Today I heard that my hometown of Charleston will be losing 20% of its port volume in 2010 because the International Longshoremen's Union lost a game of chicken with Maersk.
At first sight it would seem that the auto bailout plan is not adequate - it resembles an expensive gesture rather than a solution.
In any case, if it doesn't work the companies will go down, and whatever else happens the union will be destroyed.
I have no idea what would be adequate. Anyone? Pavel Chichikov | 12.19.08 - 3:23 pm | #
Unfortunately I don't think there is anything adequate that can be done other than attempt to cushion the blow. 20 years ago was when we needed to make radical changes.
Unfortunately for 20 years we have had economists at the helm who equated asset growth with gdp growth. Believed that it was politically and economically feasible to remove recessions from the business cycle without consequence and massaged every economic indicator (gdp, cpi, unemployment) to reach this goal.
We're out of options now. Too much debt and too little wages.
The only answers we have now are what you are starting to hear, protectionism via unions and re-writing trade rules, currency devaluation and other beggar-thy-neighbour policies. Much like what transpired before GD 1.0.
I'm not even against the push for unionism or changes to trade pacts, but the reality is that globalization is coming back full circle and our treasury buries will not bow down quietly to a trade war.
I certainly hope there is no reincarnation or redemptive process for the soul. I fear the yield is getting so inexpressibly low even with no bid, that the underlying security must just pass away.
Discrimination in soul. Discriminations in wealth. Not fair. Predatory exploitation and plunder is the natural evolution. It's the pathway to wealth.
"Chapter 11 with government DIP financing. Just rip the bandaid off already."
If their business model is wrong and the credit crisis continues, how will Chapter 11 help? The time frame - March - is too short. March 2010 or 2011 perhaps, would make more sense? The country would have to decide that preservation of this portion of the industrial base was worth a sacrifice.
"Market conditions have not improved since the suspension began -- in fact, both the number of securities trading below $1.00 and the number of securities trading between $1.00 and $2.00 on Nasdaq has increased," the company said in its regulatory filing. It added that the continued deterioration of investor confidence is responsible for depressed shares rather than any fundamental change to companies' business models or growth prospects.
"He's right, as I think he implies, that the greatest menace to the US is the spread of corruption throughout the social body. Inefficient financial systems can be corrected. Corruption can be fatal."
Funny....one wise gentleman back in 1949:
"...Private capital tends to become concentrated in few hands, partly because of competition among the capitalists, and partly because technological development and the increasing division of labor encourage the formation of larger units of production at the expense of smaller ones.
The result of these developments is an oligarchy of private capital the enormous power of which cannot be effectively checked even by a democratically organized political society. This is true since the members of legislative bodies are selected by political parties, largely financed or otherwise influenced by private capitalists who, for all practical purposes, separate the electorate from the legislature.
The consequence is that the representatives of the people do not in fact sufficiently protect the interests of the underprivileged sections of the population. Moreover, under existing conditions, private capitalists inevitably control, directly or indirectly, the main sources of information (press, radio, education).
It is thus extremely difficult, and indeed in most cases quite impossible, for the individual citizen to come to objective conclusions and to make intelligent use of his political rights.
The situation prevailing in an economy based on the private ownership of capital is thus characterized by two main principles: first, means of production (capital) are privately owned and the owners dispose of them as they see fit; second, the labor contract is free.
Of course, there is no such thing as a pure capitalist society in this sense. In particular, it should be noted that the workers, through long and bitter political struggles, have succeeded in securing a somewhat improved form of the free labor contract for certain categories of workers. But taken as a whole, the present day economy does not differ much from pure capitalism.
Production is carried on for profit, not for use. There is no provision that all those able and willing to work will always be in a position to find employment; an army of unemployed almost always exists. The worker is constantly in fear of losing his job.
Since unemployed and poorly paid workers do not provide a profitable market, the production of consumers' goods is restricted, and great hardship is the consequence. Technological progress frequently results in more unemployment rather than in an easing of the burden of work for all. The profit motive, in conjunction with competition among capitalists, is responsible for an instability in the accumulation and utilization of capital which leads to increasingly severe depressions. Unlimited competition leads to a huge waste of labor, and to that crippling of the social consciousness of individuals which I mentioned before.
This crippling of individuals I consider the worst evil of capitalism. Our whole educational system suffers from this evil. An exaggerated competitive attitude is inculcated into the student, who is trained to worship acquisitive success as a preparation for his future career...."
This data was clearly organized by someone who understood nothing about credit. It also is taking all outstanding loans in aggregate, when it's the loans and refis of the last 5 years that are causing the trouble.
If only 1% of houses defaulted this year, credit would collapse again. That's how little it takes, and we've already seen what even a fraction of 1% does to credit.
Hard to believe the asset bubble got this damn big. You can see it from space...check that...it has left the Earth's atmosphere and is now considered a BLACK HOLE in space!
"POIC, protections for domestic labor and beggar-thy-neighbor do not have to go hand-in-hand.
Another myth, propagated by pure capitalist shills and the corporate welfare crowd."
Did I say they had to? I simply pointed out that THEY'RE happening!! Jesus H Christ!!
If you want to ignore what is starting, be my guest. I don't condone nor am I against it. But facts are facts. All the warning signs are there.
Let me re-iterate again. We BLEW it as a nation 20 years ago when all of us, corporate America and J6p (that includes you and me) sold our souls for cheap-trinkets from over-seas.
Well the devil is coming home to roost now. Not myth, but fact.
What does protectionism for domestic labour imply? Higher wages, perhaps tarriffs.
What will that hurt? Globalization. Who will that hurt? Our trading partners that purchase our Treasury debt.
Will they be happy? Hell NO! Will this have unintended consequences? Hell YES!
Cut the crap, you sound as bad as the ranting that happens with the conservatives on this site.
The naughty or nice list is a little lop-sided. The only thing I want for Christmas this year from Obama is a Santa Claws rally with clawbacks for all the greedy crooks.
Economist Berry on Bloomberg explaining why he and most other economists didn't see the "subprime" recession coming. Amusing in a grim way, as his apologia suggests he still doesn't have a clue what is coming.
man, that Tilson report has a ton of data. I get the gist of it but it gets a bit too detail oriented in some areas (for my simple mind, congrats if you can pull of that together). The main take away OMHO is TPTB know the severity of the situation well (man, i hope i'm right on that), and they know if the unwind and correction followed free market rules it would be far more rapid and devestating to the world econony and political stability than the sum of it's parts (2+2 would equal 9), but if the Govt can stretch the effects over time (years), then 2+2 may only equal 4 or 5. like knowing your going to have to get 8 pints of blood from a person....if you took all 8 pints at once you'd kill the person....but if you take 1-2 pint every few months the person survives. we're all blood donors now.
POIC, what I'm saying is that we don't have to repeat the mistakes of the past. It does not have to be that way.
We can do better, and I hope we will. I'm not looking to fight you. I'm just saying that we can do better than that, and I believe we are getting (finally) the leadership we need to make changes for the better.
And by the way, I don't just rant on this blog, I am very, very active outside of this forum trying to make my community and this country a better place.
/////If their business model is wrong and the credit crisis continues, how will Chapter 11 help? Pavel Chichikov | 12.19.08 - 3:31 pm | # It can't possibly hurt, if they're really almost BK now.
It has to be better than just flushing 17 billion down the toilet and coming back in two months for a refill, right?////
I'm not an economist, but considering that GM is US$60BB in debt, isnt BK in effect a bailout?
Gary, I apologize. I shouldn't have snarked like that. My bad. There just seems to be a ton of idealoguing going on, on this board and many others right now rather than looking at things as they are.
You're right that we can do better. What we had the last 8 years sucked. Anything can be better than that.
I just hope that everyone understands that all decisions have consequences. We are so inter-twined globally that in this global recession anything we do to help ourselves is going to short-term hurt our trading partners. And this will have ramifications. We are in a position where we depend on low-wage nations to fund our treasuries debt. They are not going to take kindly to anything even perceived to be a protectionist sentiment (whether or not this move is good for our country).
I see rumblings in currency movements, in the wording coming out of the US, China and Japan that it's becoming every man for himself.
oooohhhh, market fighting to stay positive in the waning minutes, an epic battle between the bulls and bears wages....like watching too fatties wrestle for the last funnell cake at a NASCAR race.
Basel Too(Unrated) writes: \tWell the euro has recently strengthened, at least against the dollar. So are currency traders taking the Greek crisis in stride?
Greek crisis is a fart in the wind compared to the Fed's moves during the past couple of weeks. \t Basel Too | \t \t \t \t12.19.08 - 4:00 pm | # Basel Too | 12.19.08 - 4:00 pm | #
Paulson asking for the next 350B should be a pretty strong hint that much more deleveraging is coming down the pike. Right now deleveraging of USD denominated assets appears to be pushing for a strong USD. Add in the Belgian government falling apart today over Fortis bank and I think deleveraging is here to stay for quite a while.
...Obama tries to address the problem of corruption in finance...
By letting the same weasels that created this mess continue to cover their asses and prosper? His chance at addressing corruption ended when he refused public financing of his campaign in favor of Wall Street financing.
Wall Streeters are so nice when you can do them little 700 billion dollar favors.
BEIJING, Dec. 19 (Xinhua) -- China must take more powerful and effective policies to support industrial development, the country's vice premier Zhang Dejiang said at a work meeting concerning national industry and information technology on Friday.
"A stable and rapid industrial development is essential to the country's overall economic advance," Zhang said.
China plans to initiate a policy package in the coming new year to revive nine industries heavily hurt by the unfolding global financial crisis, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) vowed at the meeting.
The nine industries to receive national support include light industry, textile, steel, non-ferrous metal, automobile, petrochemical, ship-making, electronics and telecommunications.
"China will resort to tariff and trade policies to facilitate export of labor-intensive and core technology-supported industries, and encourage domestic companies to conduct overseas merger and acquisition," MIIT minister Li Yizhong said."
Above article states in black and white that China will resort to trade and tarrif policies. Sounds like a trade war coming.
Gary, I told you other countries will not take kindly to anything that even smells of protectionist sentiment coming out of the US right now, regardless of how morally correct this may be for US workers.
"...people who planned and went forward with a strategy that included shooting people. We call them The Founding Fathers."
Strange - the Founding Fathers I learned about thought that shooting soldiers was necessary to achieve liberty from a monarchy, but they tended to go out of their way to avoid shooting people in general. One reason the American Revolution was so different from a typical European one, actually.
As a matter of fact, one of those generals decided to get out of the shooting business altogether when he hung up his uniform, and unlike our current torturer in chief, when in uniform, refused to countenance mistreatment of prisoners, regardless of how American prisoners were mistreated by their captors.
Do we actually share the same nation? At least for me, Mt. Vernon was about 45 minutes away, much like the Library of Congress or the Lincoln Memorial or the Smithsonian buildings.
I never saw the paintings where the Founding Fathers were shooting people in the Capitol. I guess I shouldn't have used the 17 or 29 Metrobus to get downtown when I was 15 - those who disparage public transporation are obviously much better informed about the history of America.
Though you might be pleased to know that at the Smithsonian, one of the world's finest collections of train models was swapped out for the discreetly GM sponsored 'America on the Move' exhibit. America on the Move | Exhibition
Full of all that exurban nation reality which, like apple pie and Chevy, is just part of the American Dream. Though watching another part of the past be erased, the one where America was the leading nation in rail, especially in linking the West and its bounty to the the Northeast, was saddening.
Sort of like reading how the Founding Fathers shot people.
Do you honestly believe that? Or is the distinction between soldier and non-soldier simply not relevant in your world? It was in theirs. And, I had thought, in the world most Americans were raised in.
Oops! Didn't work. I did something wrong. Not sure what. NY Times cityroom blog ran a story about a study showing big increase in white-collar unemployment spreading in NY.
POIC, I hear what you're saying. We can still have globalization / international trade but with worker protections built in.
What we need to do is get rid of the race to the bottom that unrestrained capitalism causes . . . jurisdiction shopping for the worst labor/environmental regs.
Bush admin was the worst of all possible worlds . . . I am hopeful the new administration can get things right. Maybe we can't. But trying is better than not. Good luck to us all.
If that was for the above post then no I'm not a Bush/McCain apologist. I despise both of them. But we made our bed as a nation and our decisions are coming full-circle now. Like I said we needed to stop this 20 years ago, it's too late now.
Gary, seems like there's another Gary (kidsucks) on the board and I'm getting the two of you switched around. Anyways, yes I agree with what you're saying.
German export numbers just came out and they look truly horrific for Q4. Export is falling apart world-wide. I really fear a bad trade-war is coming.
Yeah, subprimes were a small part of the problem that exposed the weaknesses of the whole system. Now it's all going down. I still want to know how many illegal aliens were given subprime mortgages and subsequent refinances and cash outs. The CRE bust will be deep and ugly. Expect CRE shit to hit the fan after the new year, as stores close by the thousands and hundreds of malls go bankrupt. The import 99% of product business model bubble is now popping. I understand now why AIG is getting fucked over. They insured many of the 20% second mortgages that have been foreclosed on, and they cannot collect on a single penny due to consumer-favoring laws in CA. I know this because they sent me a letter to the effect that I owe them 78k, and that I need to pay up in one month or else. Nevermind the fact that I was paying 2% interest over the first to cover the cost of the insurance. In the end, Uncle Sam will turn on the people and garnish wages to settle these debts, right? I don't see how $8.5 trillion will get paid back any other way. Get ready for the darkest times in US history.
"is the distinction between soldier and non-soldier simply not relevant in your world? It was in theirs. And, I had thought, in the world most Americans were raised in."
rent_to_own | 12.19.08 - 4:16 pm |
[pause] Uhm, not since Sherman. Why did you ever think Rob't E. Lee said the McClellan was the best Yankee general he faced ... Antietam? It was McClellan's avoidance of unnecessary destruction of civilians and their property.
"They insured many of the 20% second mortgages that have been foreclosed on, and they cannot collect on a single penny due to consumer-favoring laws in CA."
So you write insurance on loans without due-dilligence in a state that has non-recourse mortgages and then you're amazed when your business model blows up?
NO, POIC, they're both me and "kidsucks" was an attack on "kidbuck" - not you!
In other news, I find it funny that people were jumping on Obama's case for appointing Mary Schapiro, when Bush's incompetent hack appointee Chris F'ing Cox has been trying to burn the SEC to the ground.
She at least is a professional, not a politician (Cox was a sitting GOP Rep when he was appointed by Bush).
Bush-loving conservatives are absolutely incapable of honest assessment or reflection.
[Gary writes:
POIC, I hear what you're saying. We can still have globalization / international trade but with worker protections built in]
Ridiculous and naive, since every entity making a deal holds their own interests above all. Before any deal is done the cheating has already begun.
Your wet-dream politican Clinton forged a cease Nuclear development deal in exchange for food and other suga with N Korea. That is the model for deals.
Jackd; check out the UK websites of all the major car manufacturers. The 2010 Ford hybrid will have very poor fuel numbers compared with the cars being driven every day in Europe - cars made by the same companies we've just given billions to.
. Discover, Capital One Shut Dormant Accounts, Cut Risk
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Discover Financial Services Inc. and Capital One Financial Corp. are closing accounts of customers who havent used their cards for lengthy periods as part of efforts to reduce risk of defaults.
Discover, the fourth-largest credit-card network, has closed 3 million inactive accounts and plans to cut up to 2 million more, Chief Executive Officer David Nelms said in an interview yesterday. Most of the accounts havent been used for years, he said. We think its a responsible move.
.
I guess the Governator finally came to his senses. It's about time. I've been awaiting for a 5% trim in pay for the past several months. Looks like it'll be 10% and I'll have 2 - 3 day weekends a month.
With a 10% pay cut for the state workforce I bet this accelerates the number of people letting go of their over-priced houses in Sac Town area.
The current, most active contract is 30% higher , at 42.
January crude futures expired at the close of pit trading. They finished 6.5% lower at $33.87 per barrel after taking out lows of $32.40 per barrel. Crude futures haven't traded at such low levels in more than four years. Though January contracts went on the slide, February contracts gained 1.5% to settle at $42.31 per barrel. The February contract made highs at $43.25.
President-elect Barack Obama says he knows he'll have an "enormous deficit" to confront once the economy is back on track.
But he says it'll be easier to tackle that deficit when the economy is up and running.
In addition to the food for N. Korea, we agreed to enter into joint venture development of commercial nuclear power facilities - a sharing of costs, and delivery of expertise. Only we reneged.
If you want a near-forgotten example of media distortion, that treaty is a particularly fine example. We characterized the Korean return to nuclear development as an aggressive act by an evil adversary when, in fact, we ducked out on the joint venture and left them with no obvious alternative but to proceed on their own.
There's much more to it - but that's it in a nutshell.
Oh, and bearly - whose North Korea policy was better, Clinton or Bush?
Bush crapped all over the work that the Clinton team had done . . . and cavalierly added NK into the "Axis of Evil" purely to have some diversity in the mix.
Was never a fan of Clinton at the time . . . but Bush makes Clinton look like Christ, Buddha and Einstein rolled into one horny, slightly portly package.
[There's much more to it - but that's it in a nutshell.
burnside ]
I vaguely remember other clauses. Basically, it was a severely lop-sided deal in N Korea's favor, more like extortion. I hope Obama is a more skilled deal crafter.
burnside, I'm just having fun today. Seems to be a pretty slow day around here, it's snowing, and I just enjoy poking the confused and ignorant with a sharp stick.
Bearly, I think the object was not so much striking a good deal as working to a) start a thaw in US/N. Korean relations b) lessen the tensions between North and South Korea and c) tamp down potential nuclear proliferation.
The other give-and-take was probably less important in terms of real value.
Gary,
I know for a fact the SEC has a hiring freeze for enforcement people and has for some time. When someone leaves, they do not replace that person.
Their cases are time consuming because the execs learned some time ago not to indict themselves on email. The cases are based on testimony of fired or disgruntled workers that the lawyers attempt to trickle up to top management. It takes years and is very expensive. The execs know if the SEC has the goods on them, so they cop pleas.
At least, that's what I heard.
\tHow many winners do we have, Dawg? Gary | 12.19.08 - 4:44 pm | #
I honestly don't know and our man with the pulse FFDIC has been very quiet. I'd just say that those three bear watching based on all the public indicators. Of course CA is always a possibility but IMO as long as they can ignore the likes of Affinity Bank they can ignore a lot. I'm beginning to suspect they are affraid to single out any one CA institution for fear of them being compared to dozens of others with identical books.
Shocking, I remember having seen this video years ago. The writing was on the wall manny years now, seems non of the affected american autoworkers has learned anything from it or taken it seriously. (but why, when you have friends in Congress, and soon in government ?).
Very appropriate video !
The Option ARM issue can be averted, neg-am mortgage is no different than a mortgage mod with low interest except they aren't tacking on what the person owes to the end of the loan. BofA's plan is to just write down the principal to 95% of current LTV and remove the neg-am option on the loan. Yes, they will get less money but they are going to get less money anyways and this will probably improve NPV.
"Pay-option ARM borrowers accepting a streamlined loan modification option will have the negative amortization feature eliminated from their loan. The mortgage interest rate will be reduced to as low as 2.5 percent, and the loan will be converted into either a fixed-rate mortgage or a ten-year interest-only loan. For single property owners who currently have no equity in their homes, Countrywide will write-down the principal balance to as low as 95 percent of the current value of the property to restore an equity position."
Nope. Never had a problem before. Happens on 2 machines too.
We're sorry...
... but your query looks similar to automated requests from a computer virus or spyware application. To protect our users, we can't process your request right now.
"Speed writes:
Does anyone know why I can't access Blogspot websites, including CR? I'm getting a Google error."
Three major internet cables between Europe and Asia are down near Egypt. They say probably related to small earthquake in Malta. Should be ok by 31. december
Living in different time zone, not always able to follow all the discussions, so this may have been here already, but if not - hilarious : http://www.bleedtheworld.com
"Bearly, I think the object was not so much striking a good deal as working to a) start a thaw in US/N. Korean relations b) lessen the tensions between North and South Korea and c) tamp down potential nuclear proliferation.
The other give-and-take was probably less important in terms of real value."
Burnside, Bearly: I had a modest working relationship with Bill Perry for several years in late 90s and early 00s. One of the highest integrity, most intelligent and well informed individuals I have ever met, even though I did not agree with all of his political views.
House Leadership
Speaker of the House - $217,400
Majority Leader - $188,100
Minority Leader - $188,100
"With a median net worth of $746,000, most members of Congress have a comfortable financial cushion to ride out any recession," said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, which conducted the study."
Good to be the rich governing the soon to be very poor.
If you read Perry's article he warns (2006) that in retalitaion for the "Axis of Evil" thing the Koreans are likely to try selling their technology to a third party, which is exactly what the Isrealis believe happened in Syria, before they bombed the Syrian plant. Prescient warning.
Great, as usual. Someone needs to vet these powerpoint pitches.
Especially since a lot of T2 stuff is recycled.
T2 gets a lot of press for a $100 million hedge fund. Maybe I am just spoiled by Madoff, but since Tilson is on TV all the time, one would think he's running huge amounts of money. Or maybe its obvious if he is really big, he wouldn't bother with television.
Anyway, we are spoiled with clean, consistent data that is nicely presented.
NB....not saying that T2 is wrong because they are sloppy... just that I don't want to see Ackman's stuff recycled too many more times.
"But the biggest chunk of the debt is Prime, and they are the group that is hardly underwater at all."
I know plenty of Gucci sporting, over leveraged "prime" borrowers who used their house to finance every indulgence they couldn't otherwise afford. As a matter of fact, I received a call from one today stating there will be no exchanging of gifts for the kids this Christmas because as she put it, "things are rough this year". What's even more astonishing to me is that this wasn't the first phone call of its kind I got this season.
The facade can only be held together for only so long. I sort of feel bad for them but on the other hand I kinda don't.
Thinking about the muni comment earlier... I keep a watch list of muni CEFs (BBK, BKN, BSD, PCQ). All up 3.7 to 7%.
Wondering if this is simply a 'Where's my pony?' trade, knowing that, if the automakers are bailed out, there's no way the Feds can turn down the munis.
Further, if one is bailed, all must be bailed.
Therefore, you should buy the worst of them, the sand states.
bearly writes:
The naughty or nice list is a little lop-sided. The only thing I want for Christmas this year from Obama is a Santa Claws rally with clawbacks for all the greedy crooks.
i think youve made it to obama's "coal in the stocking" list
Bearly wrote
Your wet-dream politican Clinton forged a cease Nuclear development deal in exchange for food and other suga with N Korea. That is the model for deals.
bearly | 12.19.08 - 4:27 pm |
---uh hmmm and bush did much better?
wish we had reagan back again...arms for hostages...he gave hawk missles to iran by way of isreal in exchange for...
Already priced i
Zambawei, here we come
Nemo, did you read before posting?
Nemo,
Everything is always and everywhere already priced in. That's why we see so little volatility in markets.
attack of the super jumbo dumbo.
xxxxxx,
Also why no need to read posts before declaring "priced in"
read before posting? please. nemo has pre-written responses just waiting for new posts. it's all ball-bearings these days.
8th?
nantucket ,
Maybe I need a refresher course!
There are no Austrians in foxholes.
Reading the chart; WTF is a "Leveraged Loans?"
$2.6 trillion of... what? Speculative stock investments? Futures on margin? What?
...bunkers, on the other hand
So it looks like everything is counted approx. 2.5 times
it is a myth that the new deal didn't work.
Gary:
How does one separate the New Deal from the post-WWII reconstruction project? We'd solve our overcapacity problem in a heartbeat today if we leveled Germany and Japan.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ(Unrated) writes:
\tThere are no Austrians in foxholes.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ | 12.19.08 - 2:18 pm | #
but there are foxholes in Austria, strangely enough. very strange paradox.
Obama has more face time on the TEEVEE than Oprah. Drama queen?
"it is a myth that the new deal didn't work."
so true! the economy ROCKED in 1938!
I thought Obama was Oprah?
Sorry, regarding the 2.5 times - misreading the chart
A Leveraged Loan is basically distressed lending to someone already leveraged. Much higher credit risk.
Hey wait....CRE is #3 on the list, you said it was not as bad as RRE...
CR: "There is a lot of great data in this report, but be careful how you use it."
With great data, comes great responsibility.
God Shammgod writes:
xxxxxx,
Also why no need to read posts before declaring "priced in"
Good point...(this phrase also works by saving $$$/2 yrs spent on an MBA)
ot-oil bounced off 33.44 twice today...could be good for late afternoon dig play...
double bottom on 10 minute chart? mouse into chart for options to display...
Crude Oil Chart
Sorry, regarding the 2.5 times - misreading the chart
God Shammgod
Yes, I compared the components that are counted by the Census as being outstanding mortgage debt (total, residential, commercial) and the differences are nothing more than rounding/survey errors.
I still want to know what a "Leveraged Loans" is.
Good point...(this phrase also works by saving $$$/2 yrs spent on an MBA)
\t Samdog
Samdog | 12.19.08 - 2:23 pm | #
Yep, just learn a few good phrases and we too can be market gurus. Woohoo!
"this phrase also works"
i like 'core comptencies' and any reference to value, eg, '-added', '-chain', '-multiplier'... thought of the last one myself.
Basel Too writes:
A Leveraged Loan is basically distressed lending to someone already leveraged. Much higher credit risk.
Thanks, if they called them "Hail-Mary Pier Loans" than I would have understood.
a "leveraged loan" is just a loan to a corporate with high credit risk. that's how the term was used in the investment banks.
it sounds cooler than it was. just plain old risky lending.
With this much debt, CDSs don't seem like such a problem. I'd want some insurance, too, if I lent this much.
retail was headed down 20% for 4th qtr before the weather shut in huge parts of the country for two weeks before christmas.
bye bye big boxes. they were all leveraged debt machines that cannot handle a loss of sales of 20% off the top.
mass bankruptcies in the retail sector coming very soon.
ot-oil bounced off 33.44 twice today...could be good for late afternoon dig play...
cd... your looking at the contract that expires today.
bgates, you forgot synergies. As in managements boot will be synergized to your ass this coming Friday.
Yep, just learn a few good phrases and we too can be market gurus. Woohoo!
God Shammgod | 12.19.08 - 2:25 pm | #
We used to joke at one of my old jobs about putting out a book with all the crufty "trader sayings".
I'm sure it's been done.
ot-recant stupid statment on oil-it just touched 32.90's
Correct me if I am wrong but I thought Alt-As and exotics could be prime (ie, the borrower was prime, on paper).
reptillian writes:
With this much debt, CDSs don't seem like such a problem. I'd want some insurance, too, if I lent this much.
reptillian | 12.19.08 - 2:27 pm | #
what if the "insurer" cannot pay that insurance, surely you would not expect taxpayers to do it?
i know you know this, you've posted clever stuff before ...
" will be synergized"
see if you can even use the term 'syzygy'. that's the real extra ace up the sleeves if anyone tries to get all buckminster on you...
thanks oil...
hey happy holidays you and your families all!!!.nemo-I claim first on that today...
wow, my MAF is rocking. fellow TBT knuckleheads might consider it.
ot-recant stupid statment on oil-it just touched 32.90's
\t cd
cd | 12.19.08 - 2:27 pm | #
Anyone surprised by the magnitude of oil's collapse? I mean, the speed of the climb to $147 seemed like a manipulated bubble to me, but this is a huge collapse.
You also have to question the powers of OPEC, which I suppsoe people have been doing for decades. Still, interesting towatch in a train wreck sort of way.
re: oil. I'm looking to start scaling in. This is for a LONG term hold. Seems like every option has it's down-sides. DIG is oil, gas and exploration. USO has slippage issues as contracts roll. Buying individual stocks can blow up on you.
Any recommendations for good trading vehicles that I can use for oil for buy and forget it for a few years type investing?
TIA
in honor of god shammgod
ShamWow
"Anyone surprised by the magnitude of oil's collapse? "
absolutely. the dollar has indeed impressed me this summer. i did not think the commodity bear could be this deep and fast. look at E today!
"Anyone surprised by the magnitude of oil's collapse?"
Uh...no!
otishertz,
Portland OR metro has been shut down this whole week...snow and abnormal cold led to iced over streets. Nobody is getting much Christmas shopping done out here. Not a lot of gasoline consumption either. Economic activity slowed to a crawl...
But the biggest chunk of the debt is Prime, and they are the group that is hardly underwater at all.
This is a FUD piece meant to scare people into allowing more government spending to solve a "problem".
see if you can even use the term 'syzygy'. that's the real extra ace up the sleeves if anyone tries to get all buckminster on you...
bgates
I built a tensegrity icosidodecahedron when I was in high school...
How does one separate the New Deal from the post-WWII reconstruction project? We'd solve our overcapacity problem in a heartbeat today if we leveled Germany and Japan.
anonymous | 12.19.08 - 2:20 pm | #
That is not funny. And if you're serious, you ought to be in Guantanamo.
Lol. My home state is predicting 14% unemployment next year. And Governor Sanford wont sign off on federal unemployment loans.
S.C. unemployment rate rises in November, more jobs shed - Breaking News - TheState.com
"But the biggest chunk of the debt is Prime, and they are the group that is hardly underwater at all."
Spoken like a person who has no idea what is rated "prime" by the mortgage insurers and FNM/FRE.
"Any recommendations for good trading vehicles"
aside from the usual XLE component suspects i'd consider UGA and RSX
I built a tensegrity icosidodecahedron when I was in high school...
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.19.08 - 2:33 pm
Underachiever...I did that in 4th grade.
Any recommendations for good trading vehicles that I can use for oil for buy and forget it for a few years type investing?
y...options on nymex. the real deal.
no phony etf bs. pick a month, preferably apr thru august.
Has the Obama gravy train left the station yet? I need a seat. Which car will be the most comfortable?
Dawg:
did it keep the egg from breaking?
"tensegrity"
nice. the greek-root-number words, less impressive.
i actually looked at a geodesic dome as a rental property investment, believe it or not. it was packed with miserable college kids, and actually cashflowed great. but the dome itself was a leaky, cold nightmare.
bgates thanks,
I looked at UGA and it had pretty low volume, 59k. I will look at RSX further. I don't know though it's got Russia in it's name and I'm half Hungarian so I got a bit queasy when I looked at that one (:
Oil Equations, thanks for the info.
"Any recommendations for good trading vehicles"
Don't trade anything for a "K-Car" (except maybe a Yugo --engine optional).
S&P busy..need to get that extra 350 trillion for the devil....
S&P downgrades 11 top global bank credit ratings
S&P downgrades 11 top global bank credit ratings
| Reuters
No surprise re oil prices here. Once a well is put into production, the marginal cost to pump a barrel is relatively low. The biggest proportion of oil cost is the capital cost; finding it, drilling the well, and linking the well to pipeline network. As long as price per barrel is enough to provide positive contribution margin for a well, the well will be kept in operation. Based on historical trends that breakeven price is quite low.
but the dome itself was a leaky, cold nightmare.
bgates | 12.19.08 - 2:36 pm | #
Heh.... my fourth year of college, I stayed in a room at the fraternity house colloquially known as "The Ice Box".
It lived up to its name.
"I'm half Hungarian"
buy a little nokia to balance it out, keep the love with the finno-ugraic peoples
Not until page 12 of this report do they even list as one of "the Many Causes of The Great Mortgage Bubble":
"Millions of Americans became greedy speculators and/or took on too much debt"
Underachiever...I did that in 4th grade.
Uncle Ar
I met Bucky at a colloquia at 'tute. Strange little gnome who gave off the aura of someone whose physical presence was a mere convenience of the moment.
but the dome itself was a leaky, cold nightmare.
now you know why Bucky sh-canned it...
ot-hey anyone see that spike up and down just now in oil...$3 each way...oil guy? what gives...
bgates(Unrated) writes:
\t"I'm half Hungarian"
bgates | 12.19.08 - 2:38 pm | #
i'm half Welsh and half Hungarian. I'm Well Hung. ba-doom tscchhh (rimshot).
Dawg:
did it keep the egg from breaking?
unhappyCakeEater
I won that in like '80. I used a basket of progressive density foam beams that deflected. No tensegrity.
Kyle writes:
"Millions of Americans became greedy speculators and/or took on too much debt"
and/or forgot to pay their mortgages.
the man from nantucket(Unrated) writes:
\tbgates(Unrated) writes:
\t"I'm half Hungarian"
bgates | 12.19.08 - 2:38 pm | #
i'm half Welsh and half Hungarian. I'm Well Hung. ba-doom tscchhh (rimshot).
the man from nantucket | 12.19.08 - 2:40 pm | #
Well my wife is Chinese. I gues our kids would be Chungarians or Ginese.
ever read NYT and it's laughable mainstream prop pieces. cancelled WSJ when murdoch bought it (seriously, why bother). no TV since the early 90's. i get my propaganda from bloomberg.
the entire Mainstream media is a party organ and the two party system is republicrats in a never ending incestuous embrace.
choose everything that enters your head. do not be a passive receptor connected to the constant feed.
you can go ad free and live without marketing. it is easy and free. it also clears your thoughts and keeps you from making stupid references that only work among couch potatoEs
Having reached Peak Credit; we somehow have a workout? Transfer individual and corporate and municipal debt over to the federal balance sheet and hold it in Level 3?
Devalue the currency simultaneously and extend time horizons on repayment schedule?
I think this was the problem with Titanic. Bulkheads, sure. Compartmentilization, sure. But not watertight. Even so if you slowly fill each bulkhead up and seal it, but do so to all of them--same outcome.
Debt repudiation & bankruptcy at bat!
Hole from without, or turn valvecocks ourselves. Sink or scuttle, same outcome. Sunk dreadnought.
i'm half Welsh and half Hungarian. I'm Well Hung. ba-doom tscchhh (rimshot).
the man from nantucke
...thank you, thank you...but seriously, folks...
Uncle Ar writes:
in honor of god shammgod
ShamWow
Uncle Ar | 12.19.08 - 2:31 pm | #
The Great ShamWow
also, i'd recommend KOL if it goes back under ten, if you're looking for long-term energy holds. KOL will be a great hold if obama successfully reflates.
Samdog writes:
and/or forgot to pay their mortgages.
Please stop blaming the masses. In the new America, there is no need for people to be responsible for their themselves.
Postings on here must stick to the script and blame the Republicans. Or as some lovingly refer to them, the "CONS".
I'm actually reading through the Tilson powerpoint presentation, pretty long at 116 slides and a lot of data per slide. Gonna be a while to get through it but worth it IMO.
get ready for permanently shrinking per capita world gdp.
put away your guns, torches, and pitchforks and get used to the idea of helping your neighbor.
the world of getting over on the greater fool is over.
time to play nicely with each other.
no more inter-generational looting
no more system of self interest.
"the world of getting over on the greater fool"
au contraire, judging by the omnipresence of "debt-counseling services" on AM radio, this era is only beginning
Mizuho
Video - CNBC.com
also, i'd recommend [grape] KO[O]L-[aid] ... for [quick exit]. KO[O]L[-aid laced w/ NaCN] will be a great ... if obama successfully reflates.
otishertz, we choose our poisons. Bloomberg is among yours, if objective journalism is what you'd rather have.
Until quite recently their breaking stories about indicators (employment, GDP, etc.) were RELENTLESSLY spun with phrases like "will therefore avoid a recession," etc. They had no factual basis for saying this, Google cache it and see what I mean...
Any disagreement in the house on this one?
bgates,
wishful thinking i know.
however, it is time for intelligent people to stop planning to shoot others and set a different tone.
american media generated hate and blood lust is instilled to keep up a system based on conflicts among the self interested.
people have a larger self interest in the general well being and security of strangers
"and set a different tone"
i agree. we all need to live with lowered expectations.
also, this trend is not an utter disaster - fuel and housing are both very cheap now.
otishertz writes:
bgates,
wishful thinking i know.
however, it is time for intelligent people to stop planning to shoot others and set a different tone.
Uhhh...ok, Otis, know any intelligent people?
Just thinking it's Friday
Naaa... with less than a week before Christmas
Wouldn't be right
Wow, that is a lot of potential defaults! Looks like 2009 is going to be a painful year.
The ICBM will make a big comeback.
freddy's dead;
couldn't agree more. i'm saying that when i tune into the propaganda i go for black and orange colored propaganda mixed with quotes
All things are relative...Bloomberg can be awful, but beats Cheerleader News Broadcasting Channel, which makes me want to put my foot through the screen (Maria Bartiromo, Dennis Kneale, Cramer but above all merry sunshine herself, Erin Burnett, are the worst offenders). Marc Hoffman who runs the joint is a jerk, fish rots from the head down.
it is time for intelligent people to stop planning to shoot others and set a different tone.
otishertz
I'm not so sure. There once was a group of very intelligent people who planned and went forward with a strategy that included shooting people. We call them The Founding Fathers.
"Maria Bartiromo"
i actually like maria, while i find the others obnoxious. europe has better financial shows. the 'bull and bear' thing in germany is hilarious.
samdog,
i think there are people reading this blog that are way more intelligent than me.
I see you are a man of great faith, Otis.
otishertz:
Gotcha...
Week before Christmas, and it's snowing here on Cape Cod. Gives me a new lease on life. Be well!
the only way there will be revolution in this country is if it comes in the form of a soldier revolt.
there is no privacy, no p[lace to hide, and no resistance.
the best we will get is brutally smashed riots until our soldiers get tired of shooting americans
otishertz writes:
the only way there will be revolution in this country is if it comes in the form of a soldier revolt.
there is no privacy, no p[lace to hide, and no resistance.
the best we will get is brutally smashed riots until our soldiers get tired of shooting americans
take mama to the revolution, if they shoot her too, then all hope is lost. No real Am would shoot mama...still not too sure about those Germans, though...
Looking at the chart, now I know where they got the 700 billion number for the TARP from.
"put away your guns, torches, and pitchforks and get used to the idea of helping your neighbor.
the world of getting over on the greater fool is over.
time to play nicely with each other.
no more inter-generational looting
no more system of self interest."
I hope so.
a group of very intelligent people
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.19.08 - 2:57 pm | #
Were they very intelligent, or just happened to be the winners?
Would they have seemed so intelligent if they had lost?
/ducks
become a soldier's pen pal. ask him or her to defend the constitution.
and DOWN the stretch they come....................................
I recommend reading the whole report.
CR - you get credit on slide 47 for comments on CRE
Here are some scary numbers about Option Arm recasts from the report
1 - 83% of Option ARMs from '04-'07 were no doc liar loans
2 - 65% of Option ARMs are currently underwater
3 - The average Option ARM payment increases 63% upon recast.
4 - Many of these loans allowed you to pay less than interest so the loan value will be 110-115% of the original purchase price.
I know how this story is going to end.
otishertz writes:
the only way there will be revolution in this country is if it comes in the form of a soldier revolt.
You mean like if hundreds of thousands of citizen soldiers come home their jobs gone and no jobs and military cutbacks and repudiation of promised benefits? Review the Bonus Marches of near a century past to see how very close we came.
Week before Christmas, and it's snowing here on Cape Cod. Gives me a new lease on life. Be well! - freddyinp'town
My aunt owns the yellow house next to the entrance to the monument. This is the best time of year; Labor Day to Christmas. Enjoy it.
"...never read NYT"
I gave up the NYTimes years ago. But I was drawn to Krugman's most recent column about Madoff, since it's such a significant story. He's right, as I think he implies, that the greatest menace to the US is the spread of corruption throughout the social body. Inefficient financial systems can be corrected. Corruption can be fatal.
The 1930 census figure for the US population was ~123 million people. Throw in a ~25% unemployment rate, and I'm in the ballpark of 22-30 million people out of work.
The 2000 census figure for the US population was ~281 million people. Throw in a "moderate" unemployment U-3 rate of 10%, and I get a ballpark range of ~20-26 million people out of work.
The basic numbers of this forthcoming event are large, and I using the U-3 number and a "low" possible unemployment rate--which I don't buy with the pending Retail Sector's implosion. As an academic exercise, throw in the upcoming U-6 estimates and/or 25% unemployment rate gives much better numbers, and I'm left wondering:
What kinds of impact will this upcoming Deprecession (tm) be on the American popu
I know how this story is going to end.
12th percentile | 12.19.08 - 3:07 pm | #
Tears.
I know how this story is going to end.
12th percentile | 12.19.08 - 3:07 pm | #
With a vicious 1,000 point rally, and SRS going to zero?
In other news:
A Change in the Wind: Methane Time Bomb -- Ticking Louder
"With a vicious 1,000 point rally, and SRS going to zero?"
literally lol on that one
Eric
While I'm a fan of short stories, I take a little longer approach with my investing than worrying about 1,000 point rallies based on ponzi schemes (Unless of course you were referring to the S&P) I had to listen to people all last year say that SRS would never go to $120. I outlasted them as well.
Also, in regards to earlier retail notes, NY is getting slammed by a storm, and they are predicting two more before xmas. In a survey last week only 32% of NY retailers reported that they were happy with the numbers so far and were hoping for a huge last week.
"With a vicious 1,000 point rally, and SRS going to zero?"
literally lol on that one
\t bgates | \t \t \t \t12.19.08 - 3:13 pm | #
bgates | 12.19.08 - 3:13 pm | #
If this comes true then to borrow a phrase from Eric, I would weep for my SRS.
"http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/58135.html"
Obama tries to address the problem of corruption in finance. I'm not certain I would call it a problem of ethics, however. Apparently it's more serious than that.
"NY is getting slammed by a storm"
the southwest is also incredibly cold
you can go ad free and live without marketing. it is easy and free.
Amen. Hey did you see? 100 free trades! Woohoo!
"I would weep for my SRS."
i've already booked my losses on my reits. if URE crosses over with SRS i would probably get some entertainment value out of it.
freddy's dead said: "Until quite recently their breaking stories about indicators (employment, GDP, etc.) were RELENTLESSLY spun with phrases like "will therefore avoid a recession," etc. They had no factual basis for saying this, Google cache it and see what I mean..."
Until very recently spin wasn't even required, because the economic indicators weren't that bad. The economy simply fell off a cliff since September.
Employment is a great example of this. There have been 1.91 million net jobs lost from non-farm payrolls this year, but 1.26 million (nearly 2/3) of that came from September to November.
Real income after transfers (another one of the NBER indicators) is another good example. I was updating some spreadsheets the other day and I had some "vintage" data from June showing that real income had reached a new peak as recently as February (2008). With subsequent data revisions, however, that peak was shifted backwards 5 months to October, 2007!
There's a reason why the ultimate arbiter of recessions, the NBER, couldn't call this recession with confidence until a year after it started: There wasn't sufficient data to prove it until it had been underway for a long time.
Sebastia
last weekend before christmas and we are supposed to get around a foot of snow today and then expect another 6-8 inches on Sunday.
"couldn't call this recession with confidence until a year after it started"
IMO they waited because there was still a shot at a GOP presidency
Obama tries to address the problem of corruption in finance. I'm not certain I would call it a problem of ethics, however. Apparently it's more serious than that.
He looks like he's trying to do the right thing, but i don't know, if he tries to change the system too fast. It may end up swallowing him.
hiker 90
no thankfully did not see that 100 free trades. i use adblock with firefox
"Until very recently spin wasn't even required, because the economic indicators weren't that bad. The economy simply fell off a cliff since September."
Except the warning signs were there and growing for months before hand. It wasn't even that hard to see this coming.
Check the block trades for "Selling on Strength" - anyone track this regularly - seems large but don't follow it regularly...
Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
yo... timmy........
Hillary will save us; she'll put our pensions in cattle futures. We'll all be rich!
no thankfully did not see that 100 free trades. i use adblock with firefox
I'm jealous. I use Firefox at home but am only allowed IE here at work.
At first sight it would seem that the auto bailout plan is not adequate - it resembles an expensive gesture rather than a solution.
In any case, if it doesn't work the companies will go down, and whatever else happens the union will be destroyed.
I have no idea what would be adequate. Anyone?
Uh oh...Frazer is starting to go down.
"NY is getting slamed by a big storm."
Every where except Wallstreet, remember they are covered with The Big TARP.
since the option ARMs were often used for houses over $600,000 it makes me wonder how many of those expensive homes that are currently for sale and that are refusing to lower their prices are people trying to sell before the loan recasts. If they get their price they come out ahead. If not, they walk away after it recasts.
I have no idea what would be adequate. Anyone?
Pavel Chichikov | 12.19.08 - 3:23 pm | #
Chapter 11 with government DIP financing. Just rip the bandaid off already.
As you say, the UAW is toast under any scenario. I fear that with today's can kicking action, and with Democrats coming to power though, it will be another 100+ billion before the UAW wises up. Not that they have any incentive to hurry the process, mind you.
There's a reason why the ultimate arbiter of recessions, the NBER, couldn't call this recession with confidence until a year after it started: There wasn't sufficient data to prove it until it had been underway for a long time. - Sebastian
No! The NBER was just not willing to consider the more than sufficient data that proved a recession until long after it became impossible to deny the data. They had more than enough in May to call December '07. I am still of the opinion that ultimately they will back date to October. Don't dare say they needed Q4 08 data to call a Q4 07 event.
Seb,
i agree that the data, viewed in isolation, may not have have been bad. however, when you viewed multiple data points and saw the trend was materially declining and acellerating, all you had to do was a 2-4 quarter extrapolation to see that the data would very likely be in the "bad" territory. of course not all trends continue in the same direction, but many should have at least have put a probability on the trend continuation (based on the severity of the trend and from what level we came from) and that probability was high enough such that it warranted extreme caution starting in late 2007.
just like if a company reports +2% growth for the quarter but the first month it was +6% the secon month it was +2% and the third month it was -2%......even though the quarter was a +2% growth, the trend was far more telling than the stand aolne number and the trend was a better indicator as to what the next few months might be.
just my 2 cents.
"she'll put our pensions in cattle futures."
COW may well be a better investment than SPY atm. quien sabe.
I have no idea what would be adequate. Anyone?
Prepackaged or private bankruptcy were every single stakeholder has to take a haircut.
The problem is that one way or another, without protectionism, the unions are toast. The unions and management can't keep acting like adversaries; if one goes down, the other goes with it. Today I heard that my hometown of Charleston will be losing 20% of its port volume in 2010 because the International Longshoremen's Union lost a game of chicken with Maersk.
remember they are covered with The Big TARP.
AP'Shadow | 12.19.08 - 3:26 pm | #
Heh, heh....
At first sight it would seem that the auto bailout plan is not adequate - it resembles an expensive gesture rather than a solution.
In any case, if it doesn't work the companies will go down, and whatever else happens the union will be destroyed.
I have no idea what would be adequate. Anyone?
Pavel Chichikov | 12.19.08 - 3:23 pm | #
Unfortunately I don't think there is anything adequate that can be done other than attempt to cushion the blow. 20 years ago was when we needed to make radical changes.
Unfortunately for 20 years we have had economists at the helm who equated asset growth with gdp growth. Believed that it was politically and economically feasible to remove recessions from the business cycle without consequence and massaged every economic indicator (gdp, cpi, unemployment) to reach this goal.
We're out of options now. Too much debt and too little wages.
The only answers we have now are what you are starting to hear, protectionism via unions and re-writing trade rules, currency devaluation and other beggar-thy-neighbour policies. Much like what transpired before GD 1.0.
I'm not even against the push for unionism or changes to trade pacts, but the reality is that globalization is coming back full circle and our treasury buries will not bow down quietly to a trade war.
"20% of its port volume"
which is .005% of the volume at long beach/LA?
no offense...
Jesse's Café Américain
I certainly hope there is no reincarnation or redemptive process for the soul. I fear the yield is getting so inexpressibly low even with no bid, that the underlying security must just pass away.
Discrimination in soul. Discriminations in wealth. Not fair. Predatory exploitation and plunder is the natural evolution. It's the pathway to wealth.
"Chapter 11 with government DIP financing. Just rip the bandaid off already."
If their business model is wrong and the credit crisis continues, how will Chapter 11 help? The time frame - March - is too short. March 2010 or 2011 perhaps, would make more sense? The country would have to decide that preservation of this portion of the industrial base was worth a sacrifice.
There wasn't sufficient data to prove it until it had been underway for a long time. - Sebastian
goddamit, your own stupid Wright Model B was predicting recession (a year ahead) in 1Q07.
POIC, protections for domestic labor and beggar-thy-neighbor do not have to go hand-in-hand.
Another myth, propagated by pure capitalist shills and the corporate welfare crowd.
The NBER was just not willing to consider the more than sufficient data that proved a recession until long after it became impossible to deny the data
Plus of course the "Hey folks the recession's official!" is not a great way to get OUT of a recession. A little conservatism here is advised.
OT: How is the Greek currency doing during their crisis?
I need to find a good currency website.
If NDAQ drops below $1.00, will they de-list themselves?
Nasdaq Requests An Extension
"Market conditions have not improved since the suspension began -- in fact, both the number of securities trading below $1.00 and the number of securities trading between $1.00 and $2.00 on Nasdaq has increased," the company said in its regulatory filing. It added that the continued deterioration of investor confidence is responsible for depressed shares rather than any fundamental change to companies' business models or growth prospects.
up 100 or down 200 - take your pick
I'm feeling up, but I have little conviction....
If their business model is wrong and the credit crisis continues, how will Chapter 11 help?
Pavel Chichikov | 12.19.08 - 3:31 pm | #
It can't possibly hurt, if they're really almost BK now.
It has to be better than just flushing 17 billion down the toilet and coming back in two months for a refill, right?
OT: How is the Greek currency doing during their crisis?
Ummm.. got euro?
I didn't want to leave a friend's e-address at his blog, but if Jesse is reading this, God bless you for remembering the joy and hope of Christmas.
"He's right, as I think he implies, that the greatest menace to the US is the spread of corruption throughout the social body. Inefficient financial systems can be corrected. Corruption can be fatal."
Funny....one wise gentleman back in 1949:
"...Private capital tends to become concentrated in few hands, partly because of competition among the capitalists, and partly because technological development and the increasing division of labor encourage the formation of larger units of production at the expense of smaller ones.
The result of these developments is an oligarchy of private capital the enormous power of which cannot be effectively checked even by a democratically organized political society. This is true since the members of legislative bodies are selected by political parties, largely financed or otherwise influenced by private capitalists who, for all practical purposes, separate the electorate from the legislature.
The consequence is that the representatives of the people do not in fact sufficiently protect the interests of the underprivileged sections of the population. Moreover, under existing conditions, private capitalists inevitably control, directly or indirectly, the main sources of information (press, radio, education).
It is thus extremely difficult, and indeed in most cases quite impossible, for the individual citizen to come to objective conclusions and to make intelligent use of his political rights.
The situation prevailing in an economy based on the private ownership of capital is thus characterized by two main principles: first, means of production (capital) are privately owned and the owners dispose of them as they see fit; second, the labor contract is free.
Of course, there is no such thing as a pure capitalist society in this sense. In particular, it should be noted that the workers, through long and bitter political struggles, have succeeded in securing a somewhat improved form of the free labor contract for certain categories of workers. But taken as a whole, the present day economy does not differ much from pure capitalism.
Production is carried on for profit, not for use. There is no provision that all those able and willing to work will always be in a position to find employment; an army of unemployed almost always exists. The worker is constantly in fear of losing his job.
Since unemployed and poorly paid workers do not provide a profitable market, the production of consumers' goods is restricted, and great hardship is the consequence. Technological progress frequently results in more unemployment rather than in an easing of the burden of work for all. The profit motive, in conjunction with competition among capitalists, is responsible for an instability in the accumulation and utilization of capital which leads to increasingly severe depressions. Unlimited competition leads to a huge waste of labor, and to that crippling of the social consciousness of individuals which I mentioned before.
This crippling of individuals I consider the worst evil of capitalism. Our whole educational system suffers from this evil. An exaggerated competitive attitude is inculcated into the student, who is trained to worship acquisitive success as a preparation for his future career...."
That wise one was Mr. Einstein himself.
Why Socialism? Albert Einstein - Monthly Review
This data was clearly organized by someone who understood nothing about credit. It also is taking all outstanding loans in aggregate, when it's the loans and refis of the last 5 years that are causing the trouble.
If only 1% of houses defaulted this year, credit would collapse again. That's how little it takes, and we've already seen what even a fraction of 1% does to credit.
Pavel- "He's right, as I think he implies, that the greatest menace to the US is the spread of corruption throughout the social body."
Conjure says, "Everyone knows what needs to be done. As for the innocent and the guilty, let God sort it out."
"Discriminations in wealth."
Love is wealth. All else passes away.
Hard to believe the asset bubble got this damn big. You can see it from space...check that...it has left the Earth's atmosphere and is now considered a BLACK HOLE in space!
"POIC, protections for domestic labor and beggar-thy-neighbor do not have to go hand-in-hand.
Another myth, propagated by pure capitalist shills and the corporate welfare crowd."
Did I say they had to? I simply pointed out that THEY'RE happening!! Jesus H Christ!!
If you want to ignore what is starting, be my guest. I don't condone nor am I against it. But facts are facts. All the warning signs are there.
Let me re-iterate again. We BLEW it as a nation 20 years ago when all of us, corporate America and J6p (that includes you and me) sold our souls for cheap-trinkets from over-seas.
Well the devil is coming home to roost now. Not myth, but fact.
What does protectionism for domestic labour imply? Higher wages, perhaps tarriffs.
What will that hurt? Globalization. Who will that hurt? Our trading partners that purchase our Treasury debt.
Will they be happy? Hell NO! Will this have unintended consequences? Hell YES!
Cut the crap, you sound as bad as the ranting that happens with the conservatives on this site.
energy-I did see something I liked on the selling on weakness blocks..look at all the reits on that page....
Building 10000 more ICBMs will fix the problems. Freaking mexicans and chicoms will fall in line real fast.
Just made myself a latte... waiting for a bank failure.
Georgia, I've got you on my mind!
The naughty or nice list is a little lop-sided. The only thing I want for Christmas this year from Obama is a Santa Claws rally with clawbacks for all the greedy crooks.
Sadly, I am quite confident we won't get it.
Economist Berry on Bloomberg explaining why he and most other economists didn't see the "subprime" recession coming. Amusing in a grim way, as his apologia suggests he still doesn't have a clue what is coming.
Recession Forecast Blown Up by Subprime Meltdown: John M. Berry - Bloomberg.com
man, that Tilson report has a ton of data. I get the gist of it but it gets a bit too detail oriented in some areas (for my simple mind, congrats if you can pull of that together). The main take away OMHO is TPTB know the severity of the situation well (man, i hope i'm right on that), and they know if the unwind and correction followed free market rules it would be far more rapid and devestating to the world econony and political stability than the sum of it's parts (2+2 would equal 9), but if the Govt can stretch the effects over time (years), then 2+2 may only equal 4 or 5. like knowing your going to have to get 8 pints of blood from a person....if you took all 8 pints at once you'd kill the person....but if you take 1-2 pint every few months the person survives. we're all blood donors now.
cd,
What struck me is that it seems like there are a lot more big block trades there than usual, just don't have anything quantitative to hang that on...
POIC, what I'm saying is that we don't have to repeat the mistakes of the past. It does not have to be that way.
We can do better, and I hope we will. I'm not looking to fight you. I'm just saying that we can do better than that, and I believe we are getting (finally) the leadership we need to make changes for the better.
And by the way, I don't just rant on this blog, I am very, very active outside of this forum trying to make my community and this country a better place.
Peace.
we're all blood donors now.
the man from nantucket | 12.19.08 - 3:46 pm | #
Correct.
A tumbleweed blows by.
/////If their business model is wrong and the credit crisis continues, how will Chapter 11 help?
Pavel Chichikov | 12.19.08 - 3:31 pm | #
It can't possibly hurt, if they're really almost BK now.
It has to be better than just flushing 17 billion down the toilet and coming back in two months for a refill, right?////
I'm not an economist, but considering that GM is US$60BB in debt, isnt BK in effect a bailout?
Let's see. Subprime loads were $700,000,000,000. ccording to Bernanke, they would only bring $50,000,000,000 in damages.
Call the rest $10,000,000,000,000. That should only bring about 1.5 Trllion in losses.
Ummm...I think we past that in October alone.
Gary, I apologize. I shouldn't have snarked like that. My bad. There just seems to be a ton of idealoguing going on, on this board and many others right now rather than looking at things as they are.
You're right that we can do better. What we had the last 8 years sucked. Anything can be better than that.
I just hope that everyone understands that all decisions have consequences. We are so inter-twined globally that in this global recession anything we do to help ourselves is going to short-term hurt our trading partners. And this will have ramifications. We are in a position where we depend on low-wage nations to fund our treasuries debt. They are not going to take kindly to anything even perceived to be a protectionist sentiment (whether or not this move is good for our country).
I see rumblings in currency movements, in the wording coming out of the US, China and Japan that it's becoming every man for himself.
Peace back to you (:
Basel Too, oops, you're right, I just had a brain fart.
Well the euro has recently strengthened, at least against the dollar. So are currency traders taking the Greek crisis in stride?
Sebastian
oooohhhh, market fighting to stay positive in the waning minutes, an epic battle between the bulls and bears wages....like watching too fatties wrestle for the last funnell cake at a NASCAR race.
my bad. no offense to NASCAR.
I'm not an economist, but considering that GM is US$60BB in debt, isnt BK in effect a bailout?
Anonymous | 12.19.08 - 3:55 pm | #
But by the bondholders, not the taxpayers.
(modulo some pension garauntees).
Well the euro has recently strengthened, at least against the dollar. So are currency traders taking the Greek crisis in stride?
Greek crisis is a fart in the wind compared to the Fed's moves during the past couple of weeks.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
...Obama tries to address the problem of corruption in finance...
And what about the collusion of the regulators and congress (both the overseers (seeing nothing) and the lawmakers (making all that legal))?
Like trying to feed yourself by inserting food through your butt.....
Pictures of the year: funnies - Telegraph
this is picture makes me think of sebastian's data inputs
mmmm tasty
Merry Christmas !
Now go shopping , it's the patriotic thing to do ...
must be a little frustrating for spy 85 put holders
Now is this part of the O trillion, or just cleaning out the remains of the cupboard?
Congress Ready to Tap $350 Billion in Aid, Frank Says (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Basel Too(Unrated) writes:
\tWell the euro has recently strengthened, at least against the dollar. So are currency traders taking the Greek crisis in stride?
Greek crisis is a fart in the wind compared to the Fed's moves during the past couple of weeks.
\t Basel Too | \t \t \t \t12.19.08 - 4:00 pm | #
Basel Too | 12.19.08 - 4:00 pm | #
Paulson asking for the next 350B should be a pretty strong hint that much more deleveraging is coming down the pike. Right now deleveraging of USD denominated assets appears to be pushing for a strong USD. Add in the Belgian government falling apart today over Fortis bank and I think deleveraging is here to stay for quite a while.
...Obama tries to address the problem of corruption in finance...
By letting the same weasels that created this mess continue to cover their asses and prosper? His chance at addressing corruption ended when he refused public financing of his campaign in favor of Wall Street financing.
Wall Streeters are so nice when you can do them little 700 billion dollar favors.
" His chance at addressing corruption ended when he refused public financing"
just win, baby
Dryfly: never linked before. This one's for you.
whitecollar
"www.chinaview.cn 2008-12-19 20:18:55
Special Report: Global Financial Crisis
BEIJING, Dec. 19 (Xinhua) -- China must take more powerful and effective policies to support industrial development, the country's vice premier Zhang Dejiang said at a work meeting concerning national industry and information technology on Friday.
"A stable and rapid industrial development is essential to the country's overall economic advance," Zhang said.
China plans to initiate a policy package in the coming new year to revive nine industries heavily hurt by the unfolding global financial crisis, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) vowed at the meeting.
The nine industries to receive national support include light industry, textile, steel, non-ferrous metal, automobile, petrochemical, ship-making, electronics and telecommunications.
"China will resort to tariff and trade policies to facilitate export of labor-intensive and core technology-supported industries, and encourage domestic companies to conduct overseas merger and acquisition," MIIT minister Li Yizhong said."
Above article states in black and white that China will resort to trade and tarrif policies. Sounds like a trade war coming.
Gary, I told you other countries will not take kindly to anything that even smells of protectionist sentiment coming out of the US right now, regardless of how morally correct this may be for US workers.
kidsucks | 12.19.08 - 4:11 pm | #
Whatever, crybaby Bush/McCain apologist.
"...people who planned and went forward with a strategy that included shooting people. We call them The Founding Fathers."
Strange - the Founding Fathers I learned about thought that shooting soldiers was necessary to achieve liberty from a monarchy, but they tended to go out of their way to avoid shooting people in general. One reason the American Revolution was so different from a typical European one, actually.
As a matter of fact, one of those generals decided to get out of the shooting business altogether when he hung up his uniform, and unlike our current torturer in chief, when in uniform, refused to countenance mistreatment of prisoners, regardless of how American prisoners were mistreated by their captors.
Do we actually share the same nation? At least for me, Mt. Vernon was about 45 minutes away, much like the Library of Congress or the Lincoln Memorial or the Smithsonian buildings.
I never saw the paintings where the Founding Fathers were shooting people in the Capitol. I guess I shouldn't have used the 17 or 29 Metrobus to get downtown when I was 15 - those who disparage public transporation are obviously much better informed about the history of America.
Though you might be pleased to know that at the Smithsonian, one of the world's finest collections of train models was swapped out for the discreetly GM sponsored 'America on the Move' exhibit. America on the Move | Exhibition
Full of all that exurban nation reality which, like apple pie and Chevy, is just part of the American Dream. Though watching another part of the past be erased, the one where America was the leading nation in rail, especially in linking the West and its bounty to the the Northeast, was saddening.
Sort of like reading how the Founding Fathers shot people.
Do you honestly believe that? Or is the distinction between soldier and non-soldier simply not relevant in your world? It was in theirs. And, I had thought, in the world most Americans were raised in.
Ford is already producing the car of the future. Nobody told us?
Ford Fusion Hybrid intrudes on despair - Los Angeles Times
Oops! Didn't work. I did something wrong. Not sure what. NY Times cityroom blog ran a story about a study showing big increase in white-collar unemployment spreading in NY.
IT-challenged. It's my age...born BC.
It tolls for thee
RGE - It Tolls for Thee
POIC, I hear what you're saying. We can still have globalization / international trade but with worker protections built in.
What we need to do is get rid of the race to the bottom that unrestrained capitalism causes . . . jurisdiction shopping for the worst labor/environmental regs.
Bush admin was the worst of all possible worlds . . . I am hopeful the new administration can get things right. Maybe we can't. But trying is better than not. Good luck to us all.
kidsucks | 12.19.08 - 4:11 pm | #
Whatever, crybaby Bush/McCain apologist.
Gary | 12.19.08 - 4:15 pm | #
If that was for the above post then no I'm not a Bush/McCain apologist. I despise both of them. But we made our bed as a nation and our decisions are coming full-circle now. Like I said we needed to stop this 20 years ago, it's too late now.
rent_to_own , I left you a message in the other thread :
HaloScan.com - Comments
Cali Gov. prepares for furloughs and layoffs of state workers.
Schwarzenegger orders furloughs, layoffs - Latest News - sacbee.com
Is oil really trading at $33? Because if you had told me that 6 months ago, I'd have said you were sniffing glue. That plunge is amazing.
rent_to_own writes:
'...that it's becoming every man for himself.'
It always was - only Americans seem to think that it wasn't.
rent_to_own | 12.19.08 - 4:19 pm
Correct.
Gary, seems like there's another Gary (kidsucks) on the board and I'm getting the two of you switched around. Anyways, yes I agree with what you're saying.
German export numbers just came out and they look truly horrific for Q4. Export is falling apart world-wide. I really fear a bad trade-war is coming.
Yeah, subprimes were a small part of the problem that exposed the weaknesses of the whole system. Now it's all going down. I still want to know how many illegal aliens were given subprime mortgages and subsequent refinances and cash outs. The CRE bust will be deep and ugly. Expect CRE shit to hit the fan after the new year, as stores close by the thousands and hundreds of malls go bankrupt. The import 99% of product business model bubble is now popping. I understand now why AIG is getting fucked over. They insured many of the 20% second mortgages that have been foreclosed on, and they cannot collect on a single penny due to consumer-favoring laws in CA. I know this because they sent me a letter to the effect that I owe them 78k, and that I need to pay up in one month or else. Nevermind the fact that I was paying 2% interest over the first to cover the cost of the insurance. In the end, Uncle Sam will turn on the people and garnish wages to settle these debts, right? I don't see how $8.5 trillion will get paid back any other way. Get ready for the darkest times in US history.
"is the distinction between soldier and non-soldier simply not relevant in your world? It was in theirs. And, I had thought, in the world most Americans were raised in."
rent_to_own | 12.19.08 - 4:16 pm |
[pause] Uhm, not since Sherman. Why did you ever think Rob't E. Lee said the McClellan was the best Yankee general he faced ... Antietam? It was McClellan's avoidance of unnecessary destruction of civilians and their property.
Pavel: Recently read Galbraith's Culture of Contentment. It appears the culture of corruption is swallowing the culture of contentment.
"They insured many of the 20% second mortgages that have been foreclosed on, and they cannot collect on a single penny due to consumer-favoring laws in CA."
So you write insurance on loans without due-dilligence in a state that has non-recourse mortgages and then you're amazed when your business model blows up?
Hoocoodaanode.
NO, POIC, they're both me and "kidsucks" was an attack on "kidbuck" - not you!
In other news, I find it funny that people were jumping on Obama's case for appointing Mary Schapiro, when Bush's incompetent hack appointee Chris F'ing Cox has been trying to burn the SEC to the ground.
She at least is a professional, not a politician (Cox was a sitting GOP Rep when he was appointed by Bush).
Bush-loving conservatives are absolutely incapable of honest assessment or reflection.
[Gary writes:
POIC, I hear what you're saying. We can still have globalization / international trade but with worker protections built in]
Ridiculous and naive, since every entity making a deal holds their own interests above all. Before any deal is done the cheating has already begun.
Your wet-dream politican Clinton forged a cease Nuclear development deal in exchange for food and other suga with N Korea. That is the model for deals.
Jackd; check out the UK websites of all the major car manufacturers. The 2010 Ford hybrid will have very poor fuel numbers compared with the cars being driven every day in Europe - cars made by the same companies we've just given billions to.
Forgot the link for the Chris Cox actively ruining the SEC story:
Cox "Worked to Dismantle The SEC," Says Commission Vet | TPMMuckraker
bearly, you fun-loving, always-wrong d-bag: i never voted for Clinton and was never a supporter . . . so put that in your pipe and smoke it!
And see my comment at 4:26. That's you in the last line to a T!
.
Discover, Capital One Shut Dormant Accounts, Cut Risk
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Discover Financial Services Inc. and Capital One Financial Corp. are closing accounts of customers who havent used their cards for lengthy periods as part of efforts to reduce risk of defaults.
Discover, the fourth-largest credit-card network, has closed 3 million inactive accounts and plans to cut up to 2 million more, Chief Executive Officer David Nelms said in an interview yesterday. Most of the accounts havent been used for years, he said. We think its a responsible move.
.
Jacked writes:
"Ford is already producing the car of the future. Nobody told us?"
Coupled with modern factory in Brazil
DETNEWS | WebVideo | Ford's most advanced assembly plant operates in rural Brazil
Pay atention to the size of the lunchroom while thinking 250K UAW in Detroit, last 30 seconds is priceless
Comrade V writes:
Cali Gov. prepares for furloughs and layoffs of state workers.
404 - Not Found - sacbee.com 1486995.html
Comrade V | 12.19.08 - 4:19 pm | #
I guess the Governator finally came to his senses. It's about time. I've been awaiting for a 5% trim in pay for the past several months. Looks like it'll be 10% and I'll have 2 - 3 day weekends a month.
With a 10% pay cut for the state workforce I bet this accelerates the number of people letting go of their over-priced houses in Sac Town area.
[Bush-loving conservatives are absolutely incapable of honest assessment or reflection.
Gary]
I didn't vote for Bush the 1st time and didn't vote at all the 2nd.
Touche.
Caught that yesterday when you posted. Also liked this response to the video.
GM writes:
Also efficient shipping from the Rain Forrest
LAM | 12.18.08 - 11:05 pm | #
Ford has a long history in Brazil. Utter failure the first time around. I was incredibly impressed by the factory and video but not the business plan.
What do people do to earn a living in a streamlined robotic factory future?
Why did the workers revolt against management the first time around?
Damn Interesting • The Ruins of Fordlândia
400 Bad Request A2ndia
BFF
California furlough letter is a hoax.
Furlough Hoax Letter - State Personnel Board - spb.ca.gov
The current, most active contract is 30% higher , at 42.
January crude futures expired at the close of pit trading. They finished 6.5% lower at $33.87 per barrel after taking out lows of $32.40 per barrel. Crude futures haven't traded at such low levels in more than four years. Though January contracts went on the slide, February contracts gained 1.5% to settle at $42.31 per barrel. The February contract made highs at $43.25.
let's keep it together , folks
President-elect Barack Obama says he knows he'll have an "enormous deficit" to confront once the economy is back on track.
But he says it'll be easier to tackle that deficit when the economy is up and running.
Obama says he'll address growing deficit _ later
Bye, Bye SS and Medicare and hello higher taxes too.
bearly:
In addition to the food for N. Korea, we agreed to enter into joint venture development of commercial nuclear power facilities - a sharing of costs, and delivery of expertise. Only we reneged.
If you want a near-forgotten example of media distortion, that treaty is a particularly fine example. We characterized the Korean return to nuclear development as an aggressive act by an evil adversary when, in fact, we ducked out on the joint venture and left them with no obvious alternative but to proceed on their own.
There's much more to it - but that's it in a nutshell.
Oh, and bearly - whose North Korea policy was better, Clinton or Bush?
Bush crapped all over the work that the Clinton team had done . . . and cavalierly added NK into the "Axis of Evil" purely to have some diversity in the mix.
Was never a fan of Clinton at the time . . . but Bush makes Clinton look like Christ, Buddha and Einstein rolled into one horny, slightly portly package.
Jacked writes:
California furlough letter is a hoax.
http://www.spb.ca.gov/cmsMain.as...in.aspx? id=4580
Jacked | 12.19.08 - 4:36 pm | #
The furlough letter is a hoax - but the Governator's announcement is real.
You need to read it this way - The Governator is telling the unions and the leg to come up with a plan or else this will happen. Negotiation time.
Almost BFF in Virginia, Massachusetts and Georgia.
How many winners do we have, Dawg?
[There's much more to it - but that's it in a nutshell.
burnside ]
I vaguely remember other clauses. Basically, it was a severely lop-sided deal in N Korea's favor, more like extortion. I hope Obama is a more skilled deal crafter.
Dammit, Gary.
I was trying to cover the subject without politicizing it.
Beast. ;0)
ddude | 12.19.08 - 4:43 pm | #
Agreed. Missed the two day lag between the letter and the announcement.
burnside, I'm just having fun today. Seems to be a pretty slow day around here, it's snowing, and I just enjoy poking the confused and ignorant with a sharp stick.
Figuratively speaking.
Bearly, I think the object was not so much striking a good deal as working to a) start a thaw in US/N. Korean relations b) lessen the tensions between North and South Korea and c) tamp down potential nuclear proliferation.
The other give-and-take was probably less important in terms of real value.
Anyway. We fluffed it.
Liquid Fantasies
http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/254702/where_did_all_the_money_disappear__liquid_fantasies
Jacked writes:
"California furlough letter is a hoax."
While memo is fake, note sure if this makes report by Sac Bee untrue. Dunno, either way.
Clear though that Dem's tax package is dead, and the impasse continues until after New Year's.
Ddude, my condolences.
Gary,
I know for a fact the SEC has a hiring freeze for enforcement people and has for some time. When someone leaves, they do not replace that person.
Their cases are time consuming because the execs learned some time ago not to indict themselves on email. The cases are based on testimony of fired or disgruntled workers that the lawyers attempt to trickle up to top management. It takes years and is very expensive. The execs know if the SEC has the goods on them, so they cop pleas.
At least, that's what I heard.
\tHow many winners do we have, Dawg?
Gary | 12.19.08 - 4:44 pm | #
I honestly don't know and our man with the pulse FFDIC has been very quiet. I'd just say that those three bear watching based on all the public indicators. Of course CA is always a possibility but IMO as long as they can ignore the likes of Affinity Bank they can ignore a lot. I'm beginning to suspect they are affraid to single out any one CA institution for fear of them being compared to dozens of others with identical books.
Let's try ...
1) Lower Tariffs
2) Don't enforce immigration laws.
3) Tax breaks for the wealthy.
4) Subsidize real estate.
5) Subsidize debt.
oh.
wait.
never mind.
LAM | 12.19.08 - 4:29 pm | :
Shocking, I remember having seen this video years ago. The writing was on the wall manny years now, seems non of the affected american autoworkers has learned anything from it or taken it seriously. (but why, when you have friends in Congress, and soon in government ?).
Very appropriate video !
The Option ARM issue can be averted, neg-am mortgage is no different than a mortgage mod with low interest except they aren't tacking on what the person owes to the end of the loan. BofA's plan is to just write down the principal to 95% of current LTV and remove the neg-am option on the loan. Yes, they will get less money but they are going to get less money anyways and this will probably improve NPV.
"Pay-option ARM borrowers accepting a streamlined loan modification option will have the negative amortization feature eliminated from their loan. The mortgage interest rate will be reduced to as low as 2.5 percent, and the loan will be converted into either a fixed-rate mortgage or a ten-year interest-only loan. For single property owners who currently have no equity in their homes, Countrywide will write-down the principal balance to as low as 95 percent of the current value of the property to restore an equity position."
how can we as americans stop paulson from getting that next 350?
the writing is on the wall for 84 month 0% loans on GM/Chrysler vehicles to credit junkies, buying idle shopping malls etc..
Reading Barney Franks proposal makes me sick..What kind of stupid citizens vote for frank, pelosi, dodd etc....
we are screwed..
Does anyone know why I can't access Blogspot websites, including CR? I'm getting a Google error.
Does anyone know why I can't access Blogspot websites, including CR? I'm getting a Google error.
You're not a *.gov facility, are you?
Reading Barney Franks proposal makes me sick..What kind of stupid citizens vote for frank, pelosi, dodd etc....
Each one of these Congresspeople represents moneyed constituents.
[Does anyone know why I can't access Blogspot websites, including CR? I'm getting a Google error.
Speed ]
I think it's your service providor getting its IP/domain blocked for one reason or another... virus, attack source...
Nope. Never had a problem before. Happens on 2 machines too.
We're sorry...
... but your query looks similar to automated requests from a computer virus or spyware application. To protect our users, we can't process your request right now.
etc.
"Speed writes:
Does anyone know why I can't access Blogspot websites, including CR? I'm getting a Google error."
Three major internet cables between Europe and Asia are down near Egypt. They say probably related to small earthquake in Malta. Should be ok by 31. december
Living in different time zone, not always able to follow all the discussions, so this may have been here already, but if not - hilarious :
http://www.bleedtheworld.com
burnside writes:
"Bearly, I think the object was not so much striking a good deal as working to a) start a thaw in US/N. Korean relations b) lessen the tensions between North and South Korea and c) tamp down potential nuclear proliferation.
The other give-and-take was probably less important in terms of real value."
Suggested reading:
William J. Perry - In Search of a North Korea Policy - washingtonpost.com
Burnside, Bearly: I had a modest working relationship with Bill Perry for several years in late 90s and early 00s. One of the highest integrity, most intelligent and well informed individuals I have ever met, even though I did not agree with all of his political views.
i'm blocked at ino.com....just today, since 2pm est
No one mentioned the $4700 COLA raise Congress received this year.
The current salary (2008) for rank-and-file members of the House and Senate is $169,300 per year.
Senate Leadership
Majority Leader - $188,100
Minority Leader - $188,100
House Leadership
Speaker of the House - $217,400
Majority Leader - $188,100
Minority Leader - $188,100
"With a median net worth of $746,000, most members of Congress have a comfortable financial cushion to ride out any recession," said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, which conducted the study."
Good to be the rich governing the soon to be very poor.
bearly writes:
[Does anyone know why I can't access Blogspot websites, including CR? I'm getting a Google error.
Speed ]
I think it's your service providor getting its IP/domain blocked for one reason or another... virus, attack source..."
Iis called a "403 error" send Google a report "forbidden@google.com"
and it will be fixed in a few hours.
I'm using an online proxy to get here - in case anyone else gets locked out:
Sorry. Page not found.
Greek crisis is a fart in the wind compared to the Fed's moves during the past couple of weeks.
Basel Too
the Feds moves have been like the beer fart in a crowded elevator, with noone knowing who did it since it was not seeable.
Thanks - I sent them an email. Sorry to interrupt.
Burnside, Bearly:
If you read Perry's article he warns (2006) that in retalitaion for the "Axis of Evil" thing the Koreans are likely to try selling their technology to a third party, which is exactly what the Isrealis believe happened in Syria, before they bombed the Syrian plant. Prescient warning.
CR.....
Great, as usual. Someone needs to vet these powerpoint pitches.
Especially since a lot of T2 stuff is recycled.
T2 gets a lot of press for a $100 million hedge fund. Maybe I am just spoiled by Madoff, but since Tilson is on TV all the time, one would think he's running huge amounts of money. Or maybe its obvious if he is really big, he wouldn't bother with television.
Anyway, we are spoiled with clean, consistent data that is nicely presented.
NB....not saying that T2 is wrong because they are sloppy... just that I don't want to see Ackman's stuff recycled too many more times.
Jacked writes:
Caught that yesterday when you posted. Also liked this response to the video
"What do people do to earn a living in a streamlined robotic factory future?"
Good Question
Less line employees for sure, hopefully the increased specialize skill needs will produce higher salary scale for others.
Reminds me also of the machining
evolution from 1 employee 1 machine to 1 employee operating 8 machines along with increasing the precision.
When we needed 8 people/machines to make one widget, 7 people days were costly.
"But the biggest chunk of the debt is Prime, and they are the group that is hardly underwater at all."
I know plenty of Gucci sporting, over leveraged "prime" borrowers who used their house to finance every indulgence they couldn't otherwise afford. As a matter of fact, I received a call from one today stating there will be no exchanging of gifts for the kids this Christmas because as she put it, "things are rough this year". What's even more astonishing to me is that this wasn't the first phone call of its kind I got this season.
The facade can only be held together for only so long. I sort of feel bad for them but on the other hand I kinda don't.
.....well, it wont be long now. Marijuana will soon be legal, it's too much of a cash cow not to tax.
Thinking about the muni comment earlier... I keep a watch list of muni CEFs (BBK, BKN, BSD, PCQ). All up 3.7 to 7%.
Wondering if this is simply a 'Where's my pony?' trade, knowing that, if the automakers are bailed out, there's no way the Feds can turn down the munis.
Further, if one is bailed, all must be bailed.
Therefore, you should buy the worst of them, the sand states.
bearly writes:
Obama has more face time on the TEEVEE than Oprah. Drama queen?
bearly | 12.19.08 - 2:21 pm |
na...just doesnt trip over his own tongue as much as dubya
bearly writes:
Has the Obama gravy train left the station yet? I need a seat. Which car will be the most comfortable?
bearly | 12.19.08 - 2:35 pm | #
for you let me recommend the caboose
bearly writes:
The naughty or nice list is a little lop-sided. The only thing I want for Christmas this year from Obama is a Santa Claws rally with clawbacks for all the greedy crooks.
i think youve made it to obama's "coal in the stocking" list
Bearly wrote
Your wet-dream politican Clinton forged a cease Nuclear development deal in exchange for food and other suga with N Korea. That is the model for deals.
bearly | 12.19.08 - 4:27 pm |
---uh hmmm and bush did much better?
wish we had reagan back again...arms for hostages...he gave hawk missles to iran by way of isreal in exchange for...
well never mind...clearly your mind is made up
"I didn't vote for Bush the 1st time and didn't vote at all the 2nd.
bearly | 12.19.08 - 4:31 pm |
---so, uh you voted for gore or uh ralph nader or the kkk or soviet socialist candidate??
Bearly
i think you talk a lot of partisan shiznet and cant gback it up hommie