One thing that's really going to hurt is that junior boxes - a la Linens - are going under. These leave a deep, 20k+ sf hole AND are generally in loan covenants as credit tenants that must be in place (or be replaced within a set time). There aren't new junior box openings.
Malls/shopping centers are like neighborhoods. If your neighbors are good citizens and maintain their homes then the neighborhood benefits. When the neighborhood starts having renters and foreclosures then the entire neighborhood suffers. If you don't act fast, enforcement of HOA amd keeping the properties presentable and safe, then soon the rest of the good neighbors move away and your left with a slum.
Malls and strip malls are now in the slumification phase and the speed it happened is astounding. The over leveraging to buy expensive land and pay for the development costs have left the need to charge exorbitant per sq ft rates that are not maintainable in these deflationary times. CRE is going to crash so hard and so long due to these factors and the sheer overbuilding that many of these new shopping areas will end up bulldozed or seized for unpaid taxes.
Look around your area and understand what's happening. I can't believe the amount of empty spaces and for lease signs. Developers made their money on the front end. The LLC they created to manage the properties will fold up and the properties will go back to the banks. Difference between a foreclosed house and a foreclosed failed shopping area is millions. Do you see the problem the banks are just rolling into now?
i worked for copeland's sports about 6 or 7 years ago. the store that i worked at was at a very busy intersection in an fairly affluent part of the las vegas valley. copeland's went under at least a year ago and the box that we occupied is still empty. the former shoe pavilion and wild oats are two new empties in this one strip mall in a seemingly good area to have a business.
as i drive around vegas it amazes me how much empty commercial space is out there just sitting empty. as a maintenance guy my eye is tuned to the sort of thing but if you look carefully you can see entropy doing its thing.
just to clarify my last statement my entropy reference has to do with the state of the buildings, not the state of our economy or civilization. wait a second...
I have a small (and a lot smaller than it used to be!!) holding in a REIT which owns retail property in both the US and here in Australia.
One thing that fascinates me every time I receive their financial statements is how low their US mall rents/valuations are per unit area. (I am talking factors of 5 or 6.)
The type of malls might be a contributing factor I suspect the Australian assets are far larger individually and so more the 'anchor mall' type, but nonetheless it is clear that retail rents (and therefore valuations) are considerably higher in Australia.
It would be interesting to analyse whether this has a significant impact on the retail structure in different countries. I would imagine there are concepts in use in the US which are simply unaffordable in most other places.
"Look around your area and understand what's happening."
And now was acknowledged the presence of the Red Death. He had come like a thief in the night. And one by one dropped the revellers in the blood-bedewed halls of their revel, and died each in the despairing posture of his fall. And the life of the ebony clock went out with that of the last of the gay. And the flames of the tripods expired. And Darkness and Decay and the Red Death held illimitable dominion over all.
Edgar Allen Poe
Vertical Mixed Use (VMU) has been the favored development vehicle in city center. I'm seeing older VMU developments (1-2 yrs since completion) that are still not fully leased. More are coming online, and there are many in the downtown urban core that have rent subsidies provided by the City, and those subsidies are soon to expire.
The local RE 'experts' have been saying that 'It's different here' for the last 2 years. Now they're saying, 'It won't be as bad here.'
Yeah, right.
With the drop in oil, Texas is going to face some hard times in the next 12 months, maybe sooner.
Sears 3rd qtr numbers were so bad that the CEO, Eddie Lampert, a Cramer friend and hedge fund manager, decided to do a stock buy back to shore up the companies stock and stop the free-fall. Well, guess what happened next? scam artists.
"PCA, to be fair, I don't really consider strip malls to be "infrastructure"..."
In a strict sense, no. But consider the entire development pattern of modern American cities from streets to lots to school systems to power and water distribution to gas stations to bus stops... That whole pattern is the infrastructure. It is fundamentally structured around lower density single family or moderate multi family living with easy, available individual personal transportation. Any change to part of that changes the whole balance. That is a lesson clearly seen in the rise in the price of gasoline; it upset the whole thing.
Strip mall development implies a certain balance of retail to residential, a certain driving distance to shop, a certain population density per store. Any infrastructure spending needs to be based on a fundamental decision to either change the whole pattern or to support it.
True wally, but the "infrastructure PCA was referencing was the projects Obama was speaking of implementing. I'm pretty sure his plan wasn't to build any strip malls.
No, not to build strip malls. But then what - to pretty up what we have or to axe it? I've heard things like 'paint bridges'. Well, then we are keeping cars, right? and so we are keeping individual personal transportation... and so it goes.
From what I am seeing I expect a handful of retailers to go under after Christmas based on sales to blow out inventory. For example Talbots is offering free shipping up to the 23rd guaranteed to arrive before Christmas on any order. They have tons of heavily discounted items and coupon codes. I have a hard time believing they can be profitable.
Brunswick finds $135M accounting snafu
(Crain's) Recreational boat builder Brunswick Corp. said Friday an accounting error will result a charge against earnings of up to $135 million this year. The Lake Forest-based company said that financial filings for the first nine months of 2008 should no longer be relied on
CR, A Congressman that blogs at Kos referenced your sight and the term "Hoocoodanode"..I guess that means you are mainstream now. Daily Kos: The World is Flat...and Crooked
After finding that bankruptcy attorneys qualify as debt relief agencies under 11 U.S.C. § 101(12A), the court affirmed the district courts holding that § 527(b), which compels that certain information regarding bankruptcy proceedings be conveyed by the debt relief agency to assisted persons, does not violate the First Amendment. The court reversed the district courts finding that § 526(a)(4), which prohibits an attorney from advising his or her client to incur debt in contemplation of filing for bankruptcy, is facially unconstitutional.
Just in from mall with macys and nordstrom achor...very quiet.. everything was on sale..jewelry salesperson said she pulled all her money out of market in november..
the crowd was light..apple busiest store..the xmas spirit seems subdued this year..Retail is in some serious hurt next year....
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?
\tLiquidation! Going out of business! Everything must go! Deals, deals, deals!
\tThe slipping economy already steamrolling to one of the worst declines in decades is putting the consumer in charge as more retailers falter even in the midst of the usually busy holiday shopping season.
\tIn their wake has come a litany of liquidation sales unseen in number or scope: jewelers slashing prices to 80 percent off; electronics stores practically pushing items out the door; toy discounters nearly giving it all away to meet creditors demands.
\tBankrupt stores are pressing to grab scant holiday shopping dollars. Linens N Things, Circuit City stores and The Sharper Image were joined earlier this month by KB Toys, which filed for bankruptcy protection and began immediate going-out-of-business sales.
\tAll of it just in time for the holidays.
\tWith the economy right now, its ConsumerLand USA, said Tom Wacker, a manager at Preferred Sales Associates, a furniture liquidator based in Lancaster, Pa. The merchants are getting slaughtered. Cash is king and if youve got the money, youve got the deal.
\tIn some cases, firms like Preferred Sales are hired to manage liquidation sales. They take over the stores inventory and work to clear everything out. Other retailers handle the effort on their own.
\tExperts say tight-fisted shoppers can reap the rewards as long as theyre careful to do their homework.
\tThats because not every liquidation is the same.
\tLiquidations play on greed, that their misfortune is your good fortune and theyll promote the highest discount in the range, said Edgar Dworsky, a consumer advocate who runs ConsumerWorld.com. Liquidation is different from going out of business, which is different from bankruptcy reorganization. And, in the end, not all the deals are the best ones.
\tIts critical to know whats a good deal or not. And there are a few giveaways, such as multiple stickers on an item.
\tLiquidators practices vary, so while one will push prices to their original retail cost and start cutting from there, others will begin discounting from the last price before they stepped in.
\tAt Linens N Things, for example, shoppers at the first day of liquidation perhaps believing great deals were in place found that items previously offered on the clearance rack were back to regular price with a scant 10 or 20 percent discount.
\tMy husband and I went to Linens N Things for their liquidation sale and ultimately purchased things at Bed Bath & Beyond with a 20 percent coupon, said Kristin Miller of Colorado Springs. The prices werent marked down enough to warrant an unnecessary purchase. Ultimately I think people feel like prices are inflated then marked down to make it seem like we are getting a deal.
\tIn another case, consumer bloggers tracking prices at Circuit City in November it announced it was closing 155 locations but was keeping others open found the closeout offerings on high-end HD televisions were actually more expensive at the store than on its online shop.
\tYou really should treat the liquidation no differently than any regular sale, Dworsky said. The consumer has to check and compare prices just as they would any other time. A guy with a sign in the street with x percent off doesnt mean your item is favorably priced.
\tProfessional liquidators have one job: Make as much money as possible for the retailer. Many liquidation companies base their earnings on how well they accomplish that task. Liquidators are a roving group, moving across the country from one disposition to the next, racking up expenses along the way.
\tWhen we come into town our housing is typically 90 days, said Wacker, the furniture liquidator who usually heads a team of about 20 associates for each sale and makes his home in Denver.
\tFinding a great price is really a matter of education, he said.
\tIt really depends who is running the sale since not every liquidator is on the up and up, Wacker said. You can pretty much deal on every item on the floor, and the best thing in your back pocket, other than knowledge, is cash.
\tPrice cuts of 10 percent or 20 percent off regular price arent enough to sway many shoppers some retailers regularly offer coupons for that amount of savings and deep discounts sometimes mean the best stuff is already gone.
\tYou cant flatly say that just because a store is in liquidation that the bargains are numerous, Dworsky said.
\tMark Allen at Sonnys Diamonds & Jewelry in Denver agreed.
\tIve got some items up to 70 percent off, but I cant pay people to take it, he said, referring to how deep a discount hed make. The store is closing after 17 years and is handling its own closeout.
\tSome items are 10 percent off, he said of the liquidation that began a month ago. We pretty much cut the prices and they are what they are.
\tBut are you getting a deal? Allen said one customer recently priced a diamond, went to other stores to shop and came back to buy.
\tIt really depends on what it is, he said.
No, not to build strip malls. But then what - to pretty up what we have or to axe it? I've heard things like 'paint bridges'. Well, then we are keeping cars, right? and so we are keeping individual personal transportation... and so it goes. wally | 12.19.08 - 10:49 pm | #
Hint: we're keeping personal transportation for a while longer.
From what I am seeing I expect a handful of retailers to go under after Christmas based on sales to blow out inventory. For example Talbots is offering free shipping up to the 23rd guaranteed to arrive before Christmas on any order. They have tons of heavily discounted items and coupon codes. I have a hard time believing they can be profitable. Ministry of Truth | 12.19.08 - 10:52 pm | #
They aren't profitable right now - the real question is 'are their cashflows & reserves sufficient to carry them'? When they hit that wall THEN they close. See GM - they've had 'losses' for what seems like generations now - it's when they eat up all the cash & no one else will lend to them that the game is over. Game over for a lot of retail too.
Credit dried up, foreclosures were common and banks failed. Factories closed their doors, costing thousands of workers' jobs. The volume of destitute people soon overwhelmed the abilities of charities to function. Most of the major railroads failed.
The public tended to blame President Grant and Congress for mishandling the economy. The causes were much broader, however. The postwar period was one of frenetic, unregulated growth with the government playing no role in curbing abuses. More than any other single event, the extreme overbuilding of the nations railroad system laid the groundwork of the Panic and the depression that followed. Recovery was not realized until 1878.
In addition to the ruined fortunes of many Americans, there developed from the Panic of 1873 bitter antagonism between workers and the leaders of banking and manufacturing. This tension would erupt into the labor unrest that marked the following decades
Don't worry folks. Nothing to see here. Move along. The central planners will bail-out these troubled retailers. In normal economic times, the best course of action would be to allow these businesses to follow their due course. These aren't normal times. It's imperative that these organizations, who are too big to fail, be saved lest the economy spiral out of control and into total collapse.
Oh, and the financial institutions are stablized... and money is free. Problem solved!
They aren't profitable right now - the real question is 'are their cashflows & reserves sufficient to carry them'? When they hit that wall THEN they close. dryfly | 12.19.08 - 11:19 pm | #
Mervyn's showed us the future. When suppliers fail to extend credit death is immediate. They won't even have time to draw on reserves.
n addition to the ruined fortunes of many Americans, there developed from the Panic of 1873 bitter antagonism between workers and the leaders of banking and manufacturing. This tension would erupt into the labor unrest that marked the following decades Anonymous | 12.19.08 - 11:23 pm | #
Anyone who hasn't read it yet, follow this link over to the NYT. A 7 page recitation on how Bernard Madoff built up the largest Ponzi in history. From what I can tell, he bilked people on every continent.
Mervyn's showed us the future. When suppliers fail to extend credit death is immediate. They won't even have time to draw on reserves. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.19.08 - 11:25 pm | #
That is also what's pushing the GM Chrysler agenda - their suppliers are/were/will again be unable to continue to fund them.
When I was in my masters program we covered 'turnarounds' and accounting based on 'numbers you can trust'... companies never fail from being 'unprofitable', they fail from running out of cash. Granted years of unprofitable operation will eventually force a cash crisis but as we've seen with the autos - it can be many years before the cash wolf is at the door.
Heard about a number of companies cutting pensions and 401(k) contributions. Those affected most appear to be boomers by the pension freezes. Of course it seems like the pain flows up generations... so think Gen Y/Gen X have had their wake-up calls, and now all these pension cuts and layoffs will most likely impact boomers most since they are most entrenched and have the most time invested in their pensions.
Of course there are many Gen Y/Gen X who rely on their boomer parents for support. The only conclusion I've drawn is that this is going to be ugly. Why? Because we've had a glut of everything for the past 10 years (at least?). So what types of jobs are "productive"? Are we all going to become farmers? Are we all going to work on renewable energy projects? Are we all going to work on goods that are in demand to the world?
The problems had emerged around 1870, starting in Europe. In the Austro-Hungarian Empire, formed in 1867, in the states unified by Prussia into the German empire, and in France, the emperors supported a flowering of new lending institutions that issued mortgages for municipal and residential construction, especially in the capitals of Vienna, Berlin, and Paris. Mortgages were easier to obtain than before, and a building boom commenced. Land values seemed to climb and climb; borrowers ravenously assumed more and more credit, using unbuilt or half-built houses as collateral. The most marvelous spots for sightseers in the three cities today are the magisterial buildings erected in the so-called founder period.
But the economic fundamentals were shaky. Wheat exporters from Russia and Central Europe faced a new international competitor who drastically undersold them. The 19th-century version of containers manufactured in China and bound for Wal-Mart consisted of produce from farmers in the American Midwest. They used grain elevators, conveyer belts, and massive steam ships to export trainloads of wheat to abroad. Britain, the biggest importer of wheat, shifted to the cheap stuff quite suddenly around 1871. By 1872 kerosene and manufactured food were rocketing out of America's heartland, undermining rapeseed, flour, and beef prices. The crash came in Central Europe in May 1873, as it became clear that the region's assumptions about continual economic growth were too optimistic. Europeans faced what they came to call the American Commercial Invasion. A new industrial superpower had arrived, one whose low costs threatened European trade and a European way of life.
SALT LAKE CITY - An environmental activist tainted an auction of oil and gas drilling leases Friday by bidding up parcels of land by hundreds of thousands of dollars without any intention of paying for them, a federal official said.
The graph looks to be growing exponentially. It's yet more evidence that the import 99% of product business model is not sustainable. Burger-flipping "manufacturing" jobs aren't enough to support it. Bush holds the automakers hostage with 17 billion while dolling out 8.5 trillion in mostly untraceable dollars. Yet more evidence that the government is engaged and complicit in the destruction of manufacturing jobs.
cd writes:
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?
Thanks and happy holidays..
cd | 12.19.08 - 11:08 pm | #
Topher writes:
cd writes:
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?
Thanks and happy holidays..
cd | 12.19.08 - 11:08 pm | #
If you get a great deal, 8-9K
All Good CCC
Was looking last month.
Topher | 12.19.08 - 11:51 pm | #
An investment firm I read of fell on hard times and took on 'silent partners' who provided needed liquidity in return for taking control of and later possession of the remaining assets, later disappearing and leaving no records of the losses.
Surely Madoff will show how he managed all by himself using his electronic expertise, where the losses were and exactly what is left.
That's a relief.
Topher writes:
Topher writes:
cd writes:
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?
Thanks and happy holidays..
cd | 12.19.08 - 11:08 pm | #
If you get a great deal, 8-9K
All Good CCC
Was looking last month.
Topher | 12.19.08 - 11:51 pm | #
Topher | 12.19.08 - 11:55 pm | #
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such? cd | 12.19.08 - 11:08 pm | #
My automatic answer was usually the Diamond District downtown. However, visit CostCo to establish a baseline, as they have near-wholesale prices and good quality.
p.s.: There are more than a few jewelry stores closing out there, as well as jewelry departments in a number of failing department stores. Could be you'd happen on something there at quite a steal if you're willing to do the legwork.
Are we all going to work on goods that are in demand to the world? YLSP | 12.19.08 - 11:37 pm | #
Don't have to - we as a people just have to make enough stuff to export to balance off against what we import - or at least get a whole lot closer to a net balance.
OR start making a lot more stuff we consume ourselves that is currently imported. Ends up with the same result.
OR some mix of the two - the likely correction mode.
That sounds like a huge task - but it isn't as big a job as it appears once some of these crazy imbalances rebalance. Of course the rebalancing is tossing us all around for a while - we're experiencing that now - and we might not come out of it feeling as prosperous as we felt in full bubble mode. Things got pretty heady in bubble mode - everyone got a MiniMcMansion that wanted one.
But I think we'll come out of it and it won't take a 'generation' either.
"But I think we'll come out of it and it won't take a 'generation' either.
dryfly | 12.20.08 - 12:02 am | #"
I agree, dryfly. But it might take quite a few years longer if we keep cushioning the blows. Those blows are just the economic signals to tell us what to do less of, so we can free up people to start doing other things.
we might get our export balance sheet balanced in less than a generation, but the fallout will be at least a generation. you can't adjust this kind of imbalance that quickly in this great a global downturn. i think.
OT:
Just watched the Moyers piece on military contracts for housing. The "whistleblower" guy was a disgruntled employee for sure, and clearly had some sort of ideological grudge with....I really have no clue as he made absolutely no sense.
What's upsetting is that Moyers usually is decent journalism, but after this I wonder if they didn't check facts or get an industry baseline for conduct or, dare I say have jumped the shark.
Sigh. More prattle about little understood subjects, by people who have zero frame of reference on what they report.
I guess even the "good" journalists punt once in a while.
No blows are being cushioned. The market is equalizing as fast as it can, regardless of the actions of the treasury or the fed. The consumer is in the driver's seat. The outcome is totally in the consumer's hands.
cd writes:
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?
CD, fist of Congrats! Second, if you want to save about 90% on a real diamond check out:
I agree, dryfly. But it might take quite a few years longer if we keep cushioning the blows. Those blows are just the economic signals to tell us what to do less of, so we can free up people to start doing other things. patientrenter | 12.20.08 - 12:05 am | #
On the otherhand if you don't cushion the blows some the prols storm the Winter Palace. That can set you back three quarters of a century. It's always a fine line.
Should the US adopt the Amsterdam practice of a special prostitution space in our cities - using vacant malls for the entreprenuerial businesses. Each store space could have their special blend of wild to vanilla offerings.
And there'd be ample space for a STD clinic in each mall. And of course some bars, strip joints/pole dancers, and associated 'adult' biz. Toy Stores!
And there'd be ample space for a STD clinic in each mall. And of course some bars, strip joints/pole dancers, and associated 'adult' biz. Toy Stores!
JimPortlandOR | 12.20.08 - 12:20 am |
dryfly: "On the otherhand if you don't cushion the blows some the prols storm the Winter Palace. That can set you back three quarters of a century. It's always a fine line."
Well dryfly, the last Great Depression didn't end badly, it created the "Greatest Generation".
I feel we are sacrificing tomorrow for today.
Expediency. It makes for terrible longterm decisions.
Back to the topic - Instead of demoralizing the populace by letting all the unused CRE rot before our eyes, ( or turning it into whorehouses), we should demolish (and recycle) the buildings, and return the ground to its original condition, capable of absorbing rainfall, and providing habitat. The only question is, of course, who pays? Maybe it could be part of the 'dig a hole, fill it up' equation.
Well dryfly, the last Great Depression didn't end badly, it created the "Greatest Generation".
Average Joe | Homepage | 12.20.08 - 12:31 am | #
There was a helluva a lot of 'gov't cushioning' going on in the US during the depression. WPA, CCC all kinds of 'make work'.
In fact that's the biggest complaint conservatives have against FDR is he didn't 'liquidate' everyone fast enough - the kind of thing that's easy to say with a full belly sitting comfortably in a warm house.
On the other side of the Atlantic there wasn't near as much 'cushioning' and people went up the smokestacks at places like Auschwitz and died by the millions outside Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad.
There are worse things than cushioning economic blows.
Vast expanses of barren homes, strip centers & big boxes is the future for 50+% of Las Vegas. Hell, 75% if the remaining residents move into all the empty tower condos nearer the strip. What happens to the rest?
And there'd be ample space for a STD clinic in each mall. And of course some bars, strip joints/pole dancers, and associated 'adult' biz. Toy Stores! JimPortlandOR | 12.20.08 - 12:20 am | #
Don't know about that. "Lil' Darlings" strip club in Lemon Grove had a sandwich board out front that said "Free Lunch/No Cover" and didn't look like too many cars in the lot. I was tempted to do my Due Diligence, but I had to work. (This is the place that had to install a wheelchair lift for their dance platform, so as to comply with the ADA.) But if strip clubs are having problems, we're in big trouble.
So many stores having 50 - 75% off sales today & the mall / big box was still empty. Friday before Christmas and NO traffic around the mall? I saw 3 stores w/ going out of business signs, 2 were posted in the last two weeks - more empty space to fill.
Recovery won't start until "Made in USA" really means high quality stuff, not ridicule, stupid jokes and "yeah, right"-sneering.
Until the industrial base is sound enough to rebuild upon, the rest of the economy and the whole society will face horrible shit for years to come. Argentina 2001 style depression at least.
The best story I heard about a diamond ring, was a one carat engagment ring that a girl had been given by her finacee. About a week before the wedding, she found out he was "in flagrante" with one of the bridesmaids. So, to get even, she went to a jewelers, had the diamond removed and replaced with a $50.00 zirconium.She then flung the ring at him in the insuing argument.
About six months later, he got engaged to the very bridesmaid, who was proudly flashing the zirconium on her finger to all her friends.
Women can be so cruel.
I knew it - the entire housing bubble and its aftermath in devastated neighborhoods is all due to a renter plot to kill the American Dream. rent_to_own | 12.20.08 - 12:48 am | #
LOL - I was thinking the same thing. I own a home in a neighborhood blighted by renters - like my neighbors who helped me shovel snow today. What a bunch of dead beats.
001 writes:
Back to the topic - Instead of demoralizing the populace by letting all the unused CRE rot before our eyes, ( or turning it into whorehouses), we should demolish (and recycle) the buildings, and return the ground to its original condition, capable of absorbing rainfall, and providing habitat. The only question is, of course, who pays? Maybe it could be part of the 'dig a hole, fill it up' equation.
001 | 12.20.08 - 12:38 am | #
"Wheelchair lift to the stage: $15,000."
Gotta' spend money to make money. Never underestimate humans' appetite for the bizarre. Federally mandated or not, I'm betting that lift more than paid for itself.
DDD: liberals are an endangered species the last eight years. I hear they are emerging from hibernation to eat the heads off neo-cons and rel. conservatives.
Hey, I live in Boise, Idaho. People here actually think retail space will be filled and people will buy condos in Downtown. They have no clue of what's coming ....
DDD=(DK) - Do you have a better idea? 001 | 12.20.08 - 12:57 am | #
Let it go, they don't listen - rain water (& gray water) on site recycle & reuse isn't far off it it won't be the 'pointy headed liberals' who make it happen. It will be when 'sound up right conservatives' realize the least expensive way to process water is to mimic the natural cycles as close to the point of use as possible. And in smaller 'units'. It's way cheaper to try and do that than it is to pipe fresh water in from OGKW (Only God Knows Where) then pump back out to some BF waste treatment plant. We were talking about that 30 years ago during my 'commie indoctrination' as a chemical engineer - in between learning to design distillation columns for photochemical facilities.
I don't know if they will bulldoze all of these sites but I wouldn't be surprised to see some revert to nature - either by design or neglect. Queue up the Talking Heads...
Sorry this comment is OT, but I'm in Denver, have been busy, and just now got a little time to relax.
RE that 33 oil. What I heard today was it was a short squeeze gone bad. Some hands had no intention of taking delivery on this, the last trading day of the F9's, but were betting that there were others who were going to do the well-published "deliver, store in tankers, sell forward" (for huge return due to the minimal charter rates) game, which would have squeezed the shorts.
And didn't happen, and the shorts had their way with them. Someone alluded to "don't look at last trading day" on the thread. Concur here.
And, RE "...down goes Denver..." Denver doesn't do oil any more. Damned if I know what they really do here, but it's not energy or mining anymore. And to a large degree, it still looks like the Land That Recession Forgot. But not forever, I'd be ready to wager.
Now, on to Chicago in AM before the Holiday Chaos starts in earnest next week.
"Boise, Idaho. People here actually think retail space will be filled and people will buy condos in Downtown."
Hey, they had a shot at it...and blew it. Instead of the plan your scoffing at, the sheeple built sh#t-boxes in Nampa. How's that working out? And would everyone that built their own particle board castle now trade it for something close to work? Close to some stores? Close to existing police and fire services? Close to, dare I say it, people? Community?
Someone alluded to "don't look at last trading day" on the thread. Concur here.
Austin Tex,
That was I who posted an observation from several years ago re nat gas selling for what I said was ten cents a Bcf [it was really a dime a MMcf (BBtu) of course] on delivery day when all the pipes were full and there was no place to store it.
My point was basically don't believe in delivery day pricing when storage is full. Strange things happen and they don't reflect a trend.
Maybe it could be part of the 'dig a hole, fill it up' equation.
001 | 12.20.08 - 12:38 am | #
Oh you can count on that.
One guy digs while seven look on. Take turns doing that all day long. This will be the new welfare. No, I should say its been a form of welfare happening for ages and thats part of Americas problem.
"cd writes:
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?"
Is this for enjoyment or investment? I was speaking to someone I know who graded diamonds for quite a few years and now sells high-end watches. Very knowledgeable and successful at what he does.
I asked him last month about investing in jewelery because of what's going on and he basically told me to forget it. For diamonds he said anything other than very large, as in 10ct and above it's not worth it. Prices fluctuate a lot.
He also has always told me stick to high quality over size. You need to really speak to someone you can trust who is very knowledgeable so that they can point out which of the 3 C's and it which combination matters the most.
Spend a LOT of time and do a lot of due diligence and find someone you can trust when buying jewelery.
"Hint: we're keeping personal transportation for a while longer."
Another hint - not for everyone. However, the insurance industry, for one, will fight like hell to keep all of America's car owners paying for insurance. Nothing like a nation with more cars than drivers - living in an insurer's paradise.
However, the insurance companies will also be happy to see as many of those revenue producing owners drive as little as possible. It reduces claims, after all. Green is the new green, at least for insurance companies. Money may not grow on trees, but in corporate America, that old green was always the guiding principle.
There is much more to America's car industry than meets the eye, but a lot of people simply gloss over the entire subject. Especially considering how completely entrenched the insurance companies are within the American economic and political system.
Personal transportation involving walking, bicycles, or rail - bad for America, regardless of the benefits for the individual. Personal transportation involving taxes, insurance, fees - good for America (look what happens when voters reject a state vehicle fee - leads to catastrophe), and worth preserving to the tune of tens to hundreds of billions of dollars. What, you think a lot of that TARP money isn't going to insurers, many of whom also handle auto insurance - not merely individual, but also at the dealership level and corporate level.
That NYtimes piece about Madoff linked above - compiled by 11 reporters - answers many specific details about the Madoff Fund's accumulation of investor money. But I can't forgive it for not bothering with asking a simple question like why can a hedge fund get away with this? No mutual fund could ever become a true ponzi scheme. I bet Madoff keels over like Ken Lay and NOTHING changes. I can't think of a single person who was fired because of the 11th Sept. terrorist attacks. And many who should've overseen domestic air defense were promoted. S.C.R.E.W. T.H.E.M. A.L.L.
Your perception of the world is way off. Travel to anywhere in Asia an behold what has become the most polluted continent on Earth because you libs ran manufacturing out of this country because you didn't want it in your backyard. Now, those same manufacturers are polluting the planet 10x worse than the ever would have if you'd let them stay here, regulated and producing living wages. Now you're targeting the lowest-polluting automobile fleet in the world, infrastructure, buildings, rain water, the air. What next? A tax on humans for breathing out CO2? Perhaps you should tax BHO for breathing out 5000 chemicals when he chain smokes.
The other side of this is that libs are generally afraid of people who can build something with their hands- you know, real men. The same men who hunt, men who farm, men who take wives and produce responsible children, men who serve their country, men who help others more than they receive...
Unfortunately the hedgies are getting access to a new 200B credit facility in Feb. The good news is that strongly implies we get another major downleg in January. The bad news is CRE will be saved for another day come Feb.
You know what I really like about Ken Cooper's CR Companion is how you can take a really irritating poster (oh, for example, DD4me) and just by labeling him an irritating poster, he disappears . . . so long as the filter settings are set to filter "All but Irritating Posters."
Sure, the assholes of the world change their id every post, but they always disappear after one post, too. Given that the internet is still a free world, they get a free sucker punch and then they're gone.
Not that CR should never be a place for politics (especially now that the political economy is more political than economy), but I find I learn more from the posters here when the topic is at least tangentially related to economics.
So, a question for those of you discussing diamonds as an investment. I know nothing about it, but it seems to me that a commodity that relies on ad campaigns and a vault in Antwerp is bordering on tulip territory. Not to mention the fact that the process for determining whether you have a real or synthetic diamond involves testing for flaws...in the real diamond.
"There was jubilation in Sark last week when the islands first fully democratic election gave a resounding No to attempts by the billionaire businessmen Sir David and Sir Frederick Barclay to win representation on the island council, the Chief Pleas. Joy was swiftly followed by anger, though not surprise, at the brothers response.
You are correct -- most diamonds are not particularly rare or precious, but DeBeers strives to give that impression. Only large flawless would qualify as a true investment, although I'm not exactly sure what the cut off point would be.
Still, they are pretty, and those wanting a good marriage shouldn't skimp -- the wife will have a continuous reminder of you on her finger forever, and you want it to be a good one.
general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut cd | 12.19.08 - 11:08 pm | # And how many of you goldbugs are dealing in twenty-four carrot gold?
"Is this for enjoyment or investment? I was speaking to someone I know who graded diamonds for quite a few years and now sells high-end watches. Very knowledgeable and successful at what he does.
I asked him last month about investing in jewelery because of what's going on and he basically told me to forget it. For diamonds he said anything other than very large, as in 10ct and above it's not worth it. Prices fluctuate a lot.
He also has always told me stick to high quality over size. You need to really speak to someone you can trust who is very knowledgeable so that they can point out which of the 3 C's and it which combination matters the most.
Spend a LOT of time and do a lot of due diligence and find someone you can trust when buying jewelery."
The carat (abbreviation ct or kt) is a measure of the purity of gold alloys. In the United States and Canada, the spelling karat is used, while the spelling carat is used to refer to the measure of mass for gemstones.
Actually, for the very best deal in diamonds go to the high-end pawn shops in Beverly Hills. You can get a killer stone for a basement price, which you can then take over to the Diamond District for a custom setting. Just don't tell the wife, because she won't like a "used" rock.
Where do synthetics come into the picture? They seem like a game changer, but I know nothing about them. Are there size constraints? Big fixed costs?
And as far as the wife goes, she left her 1.75 beauty on a night-stand in Costa Rica. We still laugh about it, and probably would rather have the setting back as we designed it together. I sometimes wonder how we'll view things like engagement rings 10 years hence.
The current level of the DJUSRE (the underlying index) is about 134. It was also 134 about 8 trading days ago. Nevertheless, SRS is down 20% over that time.
The Ultrashort funds are poison in high volatility markets. You are going to get crushed and lose a lot of money, even if your macro call is correct (i.e. if commercial real estate drops 50% or so).
If you buy SRS, you had better do it immediately before it makes a consistent move downward.
this is a test. just a test. gabyjan | 12.20.08 - 2:33 am | #
If this had been a real comment, you would have told to tune your radio to a local emergency broadcast station, for local updates on real estate economics and finances.
"el lurko writes:
Where do synthetics come into the picture? They seem like a game changer, but I know nothing about them. Are there size constraints? Big fixed costs?"
Most people who want a synthetic diamond just go with a CZ. A few people can tell the difference, but most can't. I use blue, white, and orange CZs in my tie-tacks.
The current level of the DJUSRE (the underlying index) is about 134. It was also 134 about 8 trading days ago. Nevertheless, SRS is down 20% over that time.
The Ultrashort funds are poison in high volatility markets. You are going to get crushed and lose a lot of money, even if your macro call is correct (i.e. if commercial real estate drops 50% or so).
If you buy SRS, you had better do it immediately before it makes a consistent move downward."
Thanks for the warning. Still holding my SRS. BTW VIX has gotten crushed lately.
Somebody I read made a rather obvious yet brilliant observation -- every time SRS and/or SKF spikes upwards short the hell out of it. The spikes are always short-lived, and the ETF gets hammered afterwards. Practically a money-tree, if you're there to harvest when it blooms. Can't wait for the next opportunity myself.
One of the good things about gay-friendly clubs is that the women are more inhibited and nobody shoots me negative vibes ( unlike when I do job interviews ). Who would have thought fifty would suck in such a different way than I imagined or that i'd have so much free time. ( or that I'd get propositioned by such young swingers )
ShortCourage:
Dude, cut it out with the late night service announcements: you need to be preaching that sh#znit at 10:30am on a weekday. People, probably somewhat smart people who read CR, don't even have a clue as to what these things are. You're one of the few folks on here who consistently speak truth about those blood-suckers - keep it up.
Which is not to say it will gain you many friends: I almost got punched out by a guy I work with because, in as friendly manner as I could, I had to show him on paper the exact point where his head entered his @ss.
Yeah, but if the underlying DJUSRE index starts its (inevitable, in my mind) collapse, and it goes down day after day, like it did a month ago, then you could get crushed shorting SRS.
I prefer to do LEAPs against the component companies, so I have a year or two for fundamentals to play out...I don't like trying to be right on a day-to-day basis.
And I really don't like holding SRS (I've paid for my mistake of doing so, without first understanding it).
I wish somebody had pulled my head out of my @ss before I invested in it before fully understanding it! So I will keep up with the public service announcements, whenever it is on-topic as it is now...
One of the good things about gay-friendly clubs is that the women are more inhibited and nobody shoots me negative vibes ( unlike when I do job interviews ). Who would have thought fifty would suck in such a different way than I imagined or that i'd have so much free time. ( or that I'd get propositioned by such young swingers )
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.20.08 - 2:44 am | #
Not that that is a bad thing. BTW: I also know exactly what you mean, about the sex object part, whocouldanode(sp?) after I passed fifty it's been one stalker after another. I wish they'd grow up and just throw my ass on the floor and have their way with me. Once they've done that, they'll appreciate what it means to leave some things to the imagination. I am, after all, only human.
--
"... but it is pretty clear the mall vacancy rate will rise sharply in 2009.:
This in no way would suggest that CRE was as overbuilt, or more, than RRE.
All it would mean is that the demand for CRE would keep falling lot faster than the demand for RRE. You can't blame CR's forecast, or assessment, for what happens in the future. How is he to know that demand for CRE would take a "Cliff Diving?
And no Cliff Diving for the US economy either as per CRs recession forecast. After all, Obamas stimulus plan, designed by economists, would jolt the economy into a recovery next year. CHANGE is coming to America.
"After all, Obamas stimulus plan, designed by economists, would jolt the economy into a recovery next year."
Oh, another stimulus PLAN! How original!
And when the smoke clears out and Godzilla is even more pissed off and hellbent to destroy even more stuff just because IT CAN, then what?
Retailers are retreating and manufacturers will be right behind them. Supply is contracting in 2009 faster than demand (of course demand's crash already occurred in '08).
Winners are gaining market share for valuable future positioning.
Jas "This in no way would suggest that CRE was as overbuilt, or more, than RRE. "
I can't remember which side of the argument you were on and I know your post is dripping with sarcasm. However, CRE followed the RRE and is now just as overbuilt, especially when retailers contraction gains speed in the coming months.
Since this is a CRE thread and SRS has been mentioned several times I was hoping to get some thoughts on a few things SRS related.
First, the composition of the index it is based on has some odd balls in there.
Simon Property Group 7.76%
Vornado Realty Trust 4.69%
Public Storage 4.56%
Equity Residential 4.31%
Boston Properties Inc. 3.99%
ProLogis 3.87%
HCP Inc. 3.59%
Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. REIT 3.08%
Kimco Realty Corp. 2.90%
Avalonbay Communities Inc. 2.71%
Does Public Storage get hurt in the housing collapse? I see auction notices in my paper all the time for any number of these storage firms that are auctioning off contents due to non-payment. I have to believe that people will put their crap in storage for a few months and after a few months of not needing it will not feel compelled to keep paying "rent" to store their crap.
The one that has me scratching my head is Plum Creek Timber. I "think" that the collapse in building has got to hurt them since demand for lumber surely has gone down. Will PEBO's infrastructure spending help these guys out?
On balance there's more stuff in the top 10 by index weight here that I'd rather be short than long so I'm alright with it but looking for some confirmation/refutation of my thoughts on some of these companies.
PUBLIC STORAGE (ticker: PSA) shares have been posting sharp gains in recent weeks. But while investors load up on the real-estate investment trust, longtime Chairman B. Wayne Hughes and two children who also serve as company directors have been selling off large sums of shares.
Altogether, the Hughes triumvirate sold 5.4 million Public Storage shares on the open market for $342 million in transactions taking place on Nov. 12 through Dec. 4, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The shares were priced at $55.67 to $68.35 a piece.
I prefer to sell in-the-money calls on IYR rather than hold SRS. I get some leverage and I hope to collect premiums when IYR inevitably tanks. Of course, my down-side is unlimited unless I buy out of money calls to created a spread. However, I hate paying insurance premiums for an event that I consider unlikely.
I would rather sell calls on SRS or even buy puts on SRS as a way of hedging my naked short calls on IYR. As we have seen, it is possible for SRS and IYR to both go down in the same timeframe.
I bought SRS at $60, 7.5% of total portfolio, took some profits at $65 now down to 6% total. I think there is real money to be made but, new lows in between wouldn't surprise. Fed can buy CMBS and lower spreads but the Fed can't force banks to lend or consumers to consume. Bumpy ride ahead for SRS, lots of pain but @ $60 or lower I sleep good.
...as in, 'Brother, can you spare a dime?'
Samdog | 12.20.08 - 9:40 am | #
It happened today at Wallie World. I'm in early to beat the matinee crowd. A guy is counting out pennies and nickles and dimes to make a purchase and he asked me, "Have you got six cents?"
I said, "I ain't got no sense." and moved to another register.
The one person I talked to said they had a store meeting and sales are down, YOY for them. He said, "We won't know for sure until it's over."
By galley, you got it! I do know the fatal flaw in CR's thinking, but none with his reporting. CR and most economists, suffering from growth fetish, have serious problem with estimating demand. Hell, they can't even 'estimate' the past demand. As usual, I forecasted Demand Destruction to occur two years before it really started.
Always early, never late, and rarely wrong in foreseeing serious problems,
Americans bought too much crap on credit. They needed a place to store their extra crap. So they got a public storage locker. $100 a month to clean some crap out of their homes.
$1200 a year after taxes. That would come in pretty handy these days.
I'm pretty certain there weren't any public storage facilities during the depression.
I have not seen any industry numbers but driving around it just seems like this industry is ridiculously overbuilt. There are public storage places out in the middle of nowhere. If you live in the middle of nowhere, you can just pile shit in the yard and put a real tarp over it.
I have not seen any industry numbers but driving around it just seems like this industry is ridiculously overbuilt. There are public storage places out in the middle of nowhere. If you live in the middle of nowhere, you can just pile shit in the yard and put a real tarp over it.
12th Percentile
More and more of the High end u-store-its. Temp. controlled, smoked glass windows resembling office bldngs.
I do not believe that Jo-Ann Fabrics (JAS) is in bankruptcy. The company that is in bankruptcy is Joan Fabrics, which I believe does textile manufacturing.
If you recall I have a retail store which is the anchor for a strip I own (in virginia). From talking to other retailers (tenants and others) I would say YEARLY sales are down at least 30% for everyone.
My competition of two recently built shopping centers within a mile are facing a double whammy of having spaced never leased and rewriting leases downwards. Though I never charged as much as the other guys (pre writedowns) effective january 1st I will slash rents by 25% and keep my fingers crossed that I won't lose anyone else.
Another point. Anchor stores generally pay low (single digit) rent and the smaller spaces that feed off the anchors are where the mall owners make the big bucks. If the anchors are hurting I can assure you the small players are bleeding worse. And if an anchor(s) goes out you might as well roll up the entire shopping center.
"They needed a place to store their extra crap. So they got a public storage locker. $100 a month to clean some crap out of their homes."
Excuse me if this info is a repeat, but I thought it was interesting. The entire public storage business is built on inertia: people who sign up anticipate they will only use the unit for three months, but instead average about three years. As you say, 12th percentile, that money could com in handy during a recession. I noticed that Wayne Hughes recently sold a huge pile of PSA stock. He's very savvy and I'm sure sees the writing on the wall. (Although he's dim enough to be telling my buddy's wife that now is absolutely the time to buy a house!)
Actually, for the very best deal in diamonds go to the high-end pawn shops in Beverly Hills. You can get a killer stone for a basement price, which you can then take over to the Diamond District for a custom setting. Just don't tell the wife, because she won't like a "used" rock.
This was my thought, plus use Topher's idea (thank T) and utilize friend's contact in la d district..
Would buying diamonds in s. america be risky? cheaper?
As CR noted - those square footage & vacancy numbers are rough estimates based on average store size & in 2 cases the number of stores closing was estimated (since the company has not made an official announcement yet).
I don't think that Bally's has said that they will be vacating all of their space. I read that they are looking for a buyer and have several that may be possibly interested.
Lk - I agree. Of 400 properties Bally has, I estimated 100 will close. 200 properties * 26,000 SF average size = 2.6 million SF (which is what is used on the graph).
Wow, you really do references!
second.
second hand is king
Good thing we're about to spend Trillions on more infrastructure...
PCA, to be fair, I don't really consider strip malls to be "infrastructure"...
New hunting ground for copper thieves!
(they like a challenge)
One thing that's really going to hurt is that junior boxes - a la Linens - are going under. These leave a deep, 20k+ sf hole AND are generally in loan covenants as credit tenants that must be in place (or be replaced within a set time). There aren't new junior box openings.
There is no joy in saying, "I told you so"
YouTube -
The article about KB Toys says they're filing Chap 11 and liquidating.
Didn't know that was possible.
Malls/shopping centers are like neighborhoods. If your neighbors are good citizens and maintain their homes then the neighborhood benefits. When the neighborhood starts having renters and foreclosures then the entire neighborhood suffers. If you don't act fast, enforcement of HOA amd keeping the properties presentable and safe, then soon the rest of the good neighbors move away and your left with a slum.
Malls and strip malls are now in the slumification phase and the speed it happened is astounding. The over leveraging to buy expensive land and pay for the development costs have left the need to charge exorbitant per sq ft rates that are not maintainable in these deflationary times. CRE is going to crash so hard and so long due to these factors and the sheer overbuilding that many of these new shopping areas will end up bulldozed or seized for unpaid taxes.
Look around your area and understand what's happening. I can't believe the amount of empty spaces and for lease signs. Developers made their money on the front end. The LLC they created to manage the properties will fold up and the properties will go back to the banks. Difference between a foreclosed house and a foreclosed failed shopping area is millions. Do you see the problem the banks are just rolling into now?
i worked for copeland's sports about 6 or 7 years ago. the store that i worked at was at a very busy intersection in an fairly affluent part of the las vegas valley. copeland's went under at least a year ago and the box that we occupied is still empty. the former shoe pavilion and wild oats are two new empties in this one strip mall in a seemingly good area to have a business.
as i drive around vegas it amazes me how much empty commercial space is out there just sitting empty. as a maintenance guy my eye is tuned to the sort of thing but if you look carefully you can see entropy doing its thing.
just to clarify my last statement my entropy reference has to do with the state of the buildings, not the state of our economy or civilization. wait a second...
I have a small (and a lot smaller than it used to be!!) holding in a REIT which owns retail property in both the US and here in Australia.
One thing that fascinates me every time I receive their financial statements is how low their US mall rents/valuations are per unit area. (I am talking factors of 5 or 6.)
The type of malls might be a contributing factor I suspect the Australian assets are far larger individually and so more the 'anchor mall' type, but nonetheless it is clear that retail rents (and therefore valuations) are considerably higher in Australia.
It would be interesting to analyse whether this has a significant impact on the retail structure in different countries. I would imagine there are concepts in use in the US which are simply unaffordable in most other places.
"Look around your area and understand what's happening."
And now was acknowledged the presence of the Red Death. He had come like a thief in the night. And one by one dropped the revellers in the blood-bedewed halls of their revel, and died each in the despairing posture of his fall. And the life of the ebony clock went out with that of the last of the gay. And the flames of the tripods expired. And Darkness and Decay and the Red Death held illimitable dominion over all.
Edgar Allen Poe
Much easier for a corporation to walk away from an unfinished project that is underwater prior to completion than for a homeowner. Going viral
The federal government should make both types of default more painful. Liability seems a bit too limited in this country.
Reporting from Austin, TX:
Vertical Mixed Use (VMU) has been the favored development vehicle in city center. I'm seeing older VMU developments (1-2 yrs since completion) that are still not fully leased. More are coming online, and there are many in the downtown urban core that have rent subsidies provided by the City, and those subsidies are soon to expire.
The local RE 'experts' have been saying that 'It's different here' for the last 2 years. Now they're saying, 'It won't be as bad here.'
Yeah, right.
With the drop in oil, Texas is going to face some hard times in the next 12 months, maybe sooner.
"Note that the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change."
The opposite is true: starting at zero will better show the change, unless you meant to say 'exaggerate the change'.
Sears 3rd qtr numbers were so bad that the CEO, Eddie Lampert, a Cramer friend and hedge fund manager, decided to do a stock buy back to shore up the companies stock and stop the free-fall. Well, guess what happened next? scam artists.
Sears director unloads more company stock | Crain's Chicago Business
That's right Wally, caught that too.
"PCA, to be fair, I don't really consider strip malls to be "infrastructure"..."
In a strict sense, no. But consider the entire development pattern of modern American cities from streets to lots to school systems to power and water distribution to gas stations to bus stops... That whole pattern is the infrastructure. It is fundamentally structured around lower density single family or moderate multi family living with easy, available individual personal transportation. Any change to part of that changes the whole balance. That is a lesson clearly seen in the rise in the price of gasoline; it upset the whole thing.
Strip mall development implies a certain balance of retail to residential, a certain driving distance to shop, a certain population density per store. Any infrastructure spending needs to be based on a fundamental decision to either change the whole pattern or to support it.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Where will buy my chocolates if the peasants revolt?
True wally, but the "infrastructure PCA was referencing was the projects Obama was speaking of implementing. I'm pretty sure his plan wasn't to build any strip malls.
Kunstler knows
Support the Detroit bailout.... it's the right thing to do.
benevolent king writes:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found 20081...lgium_leterme_1
Where will the peasents buy my chocolates if the peasants revolt?
---- gawd I hate drunk idiots like me.
No, not to build strip malls. But then what - to pretty up what we have or to axe it? I've heard things like 'paint bridges'. Well, then we are keeping cars, right? and so we are keeping individual personal transportation... and so it goes.
From what I am seeing I expect a handful of retailers to go under after Christmas based on sales to blow out inventory. For example Talbots is offering free shipping up to the 23rd guaranteed to arrive before Christmas on any order. They have tons of heavily discounted items and coupon codes. I have a hard time believing they can be profitable.
Accounting SNAFU?
Brunswick finds $135M accounting snafu
(Crain's) Recreational boat builder Brunswick Corp. said Friday an accounting error will result a charge against earnings of up to $135 million this year. The Lake Forest-based company said that financial filings for the first nine months of 2008 should no longer be relied on
Brunswick finds $135M accounting snafu | Crain's Chicago Business
Wonder if Madoffs yacht (Bull) was involved...
Anyone know UPS or FedEx package count this year vs. last?
CR, A Congressman that blogs at Kos referenced your sight and the term "Hoocoodanode"..I guess that means you are mainstream now.
Daily Kos: The World is Flat...and Crooked
After finding that bankruptcy attorneys qualify as debt relief agencies under 11 U.S.C. § 101(12A), the court affirmed the district courts holding that § 527(b), which compels that certain information regarding bankruptcy proceedings be conveyed by the debt relief agency to assisted persons, does not violate the First Amendment. The court reversed the district courts finding that § 526(a)(4), which prohibits an attorney from advising his or her client to incur debt in contemplation of filing for bankruptcy, is facially unconstitutional.
Just in from mall with macys and nordstrom achor...very quiet.. everything was on sale..jewelry salesperson said she pulled all her money out of market in november..
the crowd was light..apple busiest store..the xmas spirit seems subdued this year..Retail is in some serious hurt next year....
We have way to much stuff!
Theodore Roosevelt
CITIZENSHIP IN A REPUBLIC
"The Man In The Arena"
Speech at the Sorbonne
Paris, France
April 23, 1910
Sorry. Page not found. roosevelt.co...onnespeech.html
What happened to the duty of being a citizen? Where did the qualities demonstrated in this speech go? Humanity hasn't changed, society does.
The Man in the Arena - April 23, 1910 - Theodore Roosevelt Speeches- Roosevelt Almanac
Today's cheery news in the mainstream media meltdown:
Denver Newspaper Agency issues Jan. 16 ultimatum to unions : More Business : The Rocky Mountain News
New Haven Independent: Register Closes Weeklies
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette seeks to extend buyout offers to all Newspaper Guild members - Pittsburgh Business Times:
We should provide broad brand connection to all those empty buildings.
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?
Thanks and happy holidays..
If the Obamaadmin offers any $$$ to the State govts I can only hope he and congress grill governors as sternly as the auto execs were grilled.
cd,
Is that for investment?
REBear...yes she is...
I coulda guessed there was a recent KOS reference to calculated risk.
By David Migoya
The Denver Post
\tLiquidation! Going out of business! Everything must go! Deals, deals, deals!
\tThe slipping economy already steamrolling to one of the worst declines in decades is putting the consumer in charge as more retailers falter even in the midst of the usually busy holiday shopping season.
\tIn their wake has come a litany of liquidation sales unseen in number or scope: jewelers slashing prices to 80 percent off; electronics stores practically pushing items out the door; toy discounters nearly giving it all away to meet creditors demands.
\tBankrupt stores are pressing to grab scant holiday shopping dollars. Linens N Things, Circuit City stores and The Sharper Image were joined earlier this month by KB Toys, which filed for bankruptcy protection and began immediate going-out-of-business sales.
\tAll of it just in time for the holidays.
\tWith the economy right now, its ConsumerLand USA, said Tom Wacker, a manager at Preferred Sales Associates, a furniture liquidator based in Lancaster, Pa. The merchants are getting slaughtered. Cash is king and if youve got the money, youve got the deal.
\tIn some cases, firms like Preferred Sales are hired to manage liquidation sales. They take over the stores inventory and work to clear everything out. Other retailers handle the effort on their own.
\tExperts say tight-fisted shoppers can reap the rewards as long as theyre careful to do their homework.
\tThats because not every liquidation is the same.
\tLiquidations play on greed, that their misfortune is your good fortune and theyll promote the highest discount in the range, said Edgar Dworsky, a consumer advocate who runs ConsumerWorld.com. Liquidation is different from going out of business, which is different from bankruptcy reorganization. And, in the end, not all the deals are the best ones.
\tIts critical to know whats a good deal or not. And there are a few giveaways, such as multiple stickers on an item.
\tLiquidators practices vary, so while one will push prices to their original retail cost and start cutting from there, others will begin discounting from the last price before they stepped in.
\tAt Linens N Things, for example, shoppers at the first day of liquidation perhaps believing great deals were in place found that items previously offered on the clearance rack were back to regular price with a scant 10 or 20 percent discount.
\tMy husband and I went to Linens N Things for their liquidation sale and ultimately purchased things at Bed Bath & Beyond with a 20 percent coupon, said Kristin Miller of Colorado Springs. The prices werent marked down enough to warrant an unnecessary purchase. Ultimately I think people feel like prices are inflated then marked down to make it seem like we are getting a deal.
\tIn another case, consumer bloggers tracking prices at Circuit City in November it announced it was closing 155 locations but was keeping others open found the closeout offerings on high-end HD televisions were actually more expensive at the store than on its online shop.
\tYou really should treat the liquidation no differently than any regular sale, Dworsky said. The consumer has to check and compare prices just as they would any other time. A guy with a sign in the street with x percent off doesnt mean your item is favorably priced.
\tProfessional liquidators have one job: Make as much money as possible for the retailer. Many liquidation companies base their earnings on how well they accomplish that task. Liquidators are a roving group, moving across the country from one disposition to the next, racking up expenses along the way.
\tWhen we come into town our housing is typically 90 days, said Wacker, the furniture liquidator who usually heads a team of about 20 associates for each sale and makes his home in Denver.
\tFinding a great price is really a matter of education, he said.
\tIt really depends who is running the sale since not every liquidator is on the up and up, Wacker said. You can pretty much deal on every item on the floor, and the best thing in your back pocket, other than knowledge, is cash.
\tPrice cuts of 10 percent or 20 percent off regular price arent enough to sway many shoppers some retailers regularly offer coupons for that amount of savings and deep discounts sometimes mean the best stuff is already gone.
\tYou cant flatly say that just because a store is in liquidation that the bargains are numerous, Dworsky said.
\tMark Allen at Sonnys Diamonds & Jewelry in Denver agreed.
\tIve got some items up to 70 percent off, but I cant pay people to take it, he said, referring to how deep a discount hed make. The store is closing after 17 years and is handling its own closeout.
\tSome items are 10 percent off, he said of the liquidation that began a month ago. We pretty much cut the prices and they are what they are.
\tBut are you getting a deal? Allen said one customer recently priced a diamond, went to other stores to shop and came back to buy.
\tIt really depends on what it is, he said.
Is that for investment?
\t REBear | \t \t \t \t12.19.08 - 11:09 pm | # cd replies:
\tREBear...yes she is... \t
Yeah, like yachts are investments.
This evening I just drove by a Mervyn's (closing sale), Linen & Things (dark) & Shoe Pavillion (dark). All within 2 blocks.
Cramer says housing bottoms in 2009.
Video - CNBC.com
No, not to build strip malls. But then what - to pretty up what we have or to axe it? I've heard things like 'paint bridges'. Well, then we are keeping cars, right? and so we are keeping individual personal transportation... and so it goes.
wally | 12.19.08 - 10:49 pm | #
Hint: we're keeping personal transportation for a while longer.
[Cramer says housing bottoms in 2009. ;-)]
Possible, if we see another 30% down from here by summer.
From what I am seeing I expect a handful of retailers to go under after Christmas based on sales to blow out inventory. For example Talbots is offering free shipping up to the 23rd guaranteed to arrive before Christmas on any order. They have tons of heavily discounted items and coupon codes. I have a hard time believing they can be profitable.
Ministry of Truth | 12.19.08 - 10:52 pm | #
They aren't profitable right now - the real question is 'are their cashflows & reserves sufficient to carry them'? When they hit that wall THEN they close. See GM - they've had 'losses' for what seems like generations now - it's when they eat up all the cash & no one else will lend to them that the game is over. Game over for a lot of retail too.
I coulda guessed there was a recent KOS reference to calculated risk.
Rob Dawg
I agree. Intelligent, pragmatic insight on both makes referencing one another obvious
Credit dried up, foreclosures were common and banks failed. Factories closed their doors, costing thousands of workers' jobs. The volume of destitute people soon overwhelmed the abilities of charities to function. Most of the major railroads failed.
The public tended to blame President Grant and Congress for mishandling the economy. The causes were much broader, however. The postwar period was one of frenetic, unregulated growth with the government playing no role in curbing abuses. More than any other single event, the extreme overbuilding of the nations railroad system laid the groundwork of the Panic and the depression that followed. Recovery was not realized until 1878.
In addition to the ruined fortunes of many Americans, there developed from the Panic of 1873 bitter antagonism between workers and the leaders of banking and manufacturing. This tension would erupt into the labor unrest that marked the following decades
Don't worry folks. Nothing to see here. Move along. The central planners will bail-out these troubled retailers. In normal economic times, the best course of action would be to allow these businesses to follow their due course. These aren't normal times. It's imperative that these organizations, who are too big to fail, be saved lest the economy spiral out of control and into total collapse.
Oh, and the financial institutions are stablized... and money is free. Problem solved!
/sarc off
They aren't profitable right now - the real question is 'are their cashflows & reserves sufficient to carry them'? When they hit that wall THEN they close.
dryfly | 12.19.08 - 11:19 pm | #
Mervyn's showed us the future. When suppliers fail to extend credit death is immediate. They won't even have time to draw on reserves.
I agree. Intelligent, pragmatic insight on both makes referencing one another obvious
I am not Anonymous | 12.19.08 - 11:21 pm | #
Pffft! Damn, and an expensive Merlot no less.
There were 5 or so people who last year saw the crash coming, and can't yet tell when it will end.
There are 500 media and corporate types, none of whom saw it coming, who are all telling when it will end.
n addition to the ruined fortunes of many Americans, there developed from the Panic of 1873 bitter antagonism between workers and the leaders of banking and manufacturing. This tension would erupt into the labor unrest that marked the following decades
Anonymous | 12.19.08 - 11:23 pm | #
Yes, but they didn't have a CB to save them!
Anyone who hasn't read it yet, follow this link over to the NYT. A 7 page recitation on how Bernard Madoff built up the largest Ponzi in history. From what I can tell, he bilked people on every continent.
Mervyn's showed us the future. When suppliers fail to extend credit death is immediate. They won't even have time to draw on reserves.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.19.08 - 11:25 pm | #
That is also what's pushing the GM Chrysler agenda - their suppliers are/were/will again be unable to continue to fund them.
When I was in my masters program we covered 'turnarounds' and accounting based on 'numbers you can trust'... companies never fail from being 'unprofitable', they fail from running out of cash. Granted years of unprofitable operation will eventually force a cash crisis but as we've seen with the autos - it can be many years before the cash wolf is at the door.
Heard about a number of companies cutting pensions and 401(k) contributions. Those affected most appear to be boomers by the pension freezes. Of course it seems like the pain flows up generations... so think Gen Y/Gen X have had their wake-up calls, and now all these pension cuts and layoffs will most likely impact boomers most since they are most entrenched and have the most time invested in their pensions.
Of course there are many Gen Y/Gen X who rely on their boomer parents for support. The only conclusion I've drawn is that this is going to be ugly. Why? Because we've had a glut of everything for the past 10 years (at least?). So what types of jobs are "productive"? Are we all going to become farmers? Are we all going to work on renewable energy projects? Are we all going to work on goods that are in demand to the world?
The problems had emerged around 1870, starting in Europe. In the Austro-Hungarian Empire, formed in 1867, in the states unified by Prussia into the German empire, and in France, the emperors supported a flowering of new lending institutions that issued mortgages for municipal and residential construction, especially in the capitals of Vienna, Berlin, and Paris. Mortgages were easier to obtain than before, and a building boom commenced. Land values seemed to climb and climb; borrowers ravenously assumed more and more credit, using unbuilt or half-built houses as collateral. The most marvelous spots for sightseers in the three cities today are the magisterial buildings erected in the so-called founder period.
But the economic fundamentals were shaky. Wheat exporters from Russia and Central Europe faced a new international competitor who drastically undersold them. The 19th-century version of containers manufactured in China and bound for Wal-Mart consisted of produce from farmers in the American Midwest. They used grain elevators, conveyer belts, and massive steam ships to export trainloads of wheat to abroad. Britain, the biggest importer of wheat, shifted to the cheap stuff quite suddenly around 1871. By 1872 kerosene and manufactured food were rocketing out of America's heartland, undermining rapeseed, flour, and beef prices. The crash came in Central Europe in May 1873, as it became clear that the region's assumptions about continual economic growth were too optimistic. Europeans faced what they came to call the American Commercial Invasion. A new industrial superpower had arrived, one whose low costs threatened European trade and a European way of life.
SALT LAKE CITY - An environmental activist tainted an auction of oil and gas drilling leases Friday by bidding up parcels of land by hundreds of thousands of dollars without any intention of paying for them, a federal official said.
Activist disrupts drilling-lease sale - Environment- msnbc.com
Beautiful.
What about the 59 mall locations of these guys....:
Bakersfield Bubble
The graph looks to be growing exponentially. It's yet more evidence that the import 99% of product business model is not sustainable. Burger-flipping "manufacturing" jobs aren't enough to support it. Bush holds the automakers hostage with 17 billion while dolling out 8.5 trillion in mostly untraceable dollars. Yet more evidence that the government is engaged and complicit in the destruction of manufacturing jobs.
I think I'm going long and deep on Wal-Mart
I hope Circuit City gets bailout money. I hate Best Buy.
cd writes:
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?
Thanks and happy holidays..
cd | 12.19.08 - 11:08 pm | #
If you get a great deal, 8-9K
All Good CCC
Was looking last month.
Topher writes:
cd writes:
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?
Thanks and happy holidays..
cd | 12.19.08 - 11:08 pm | #
If you get a great deal, 8-9K
All Good CCC
Was looking last month.
Topher | 12.19.08 - 11:51 pm | #
An investment firm I read of fell on hard times and took on 'silent partners' who provided needed liquidity in return for taking control of and later possession of the remaining assets, later disappearing and leaving no records of the losses.
Surely Madoff will show how he managed all by himself using his electronic expertise, where the losses were and exactly what is left.
That's a relief.
Topher writes:
Topher writes:
cd writes:
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?
Thanks and happy holidays..
cd | 12.19.08 - 11:08 pm | #
If you get a great deal, 8-9K
All Good CCC
Was looking last month.
Topher | 12.19.08 - 11:51 pm | #
Topher | 12.19.08 - 11:55 pm | #
GIA Certified ONLY!
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?
cd | 12.19.08 - 11:08 pm | #
My automatic answer was usually the Diamond District downtown. However, visit CostCo to establish a baseline, as they have near-wholesale prices and good quality.
p.s.: There are more than a few jewelry stores closing out there, as well as jewelry departments in a number of failing department stores. Could be you'd happen on something there at quite a steal if you're willing to do the legwork.
ahh dryfly, you have called the perfect thread music-
"it can be many years before the cash wolf is at the door.
dryfly | 12.19.08 - 11:35 pm | # "
radiohead, wolf at the door...
YouTube - Radiohead - A Wolf at the Door
Are we all going to work on goods that are in demand to the world?
YLSP | 12.19.08 - 11:37 pm | #
Don't have to - we as a people just have to make enough stuff to export to balance off against what we import - or at least get a whole lot closer to a net balance.
OR start making a lot more stuff we consume ourselves that is currently imported. Ends up with the same result.
OR some mix of the two - the likely correction mode.
That sounds like a huge task - but it isn't as big a job as it appears once some of these crazy imbalances rebalance. Of course the rebalancing is tossing us all around for a while - we're experiencing that now - and we might not come out of it feeling as prosperous as we felt in full bubble mode. Things got pretty heady in bubble mode - everyone got a MiniMcMansion that wanted one.
But I think we'll come out of it and it won't take a 'generation' either.
Costco is an excellent place to start. 2 Carrot excellent CCC flawless 16K.
Great deal 15K!
"But I think we'll come out of it and it won't take a 'generation' either.
dryfly | 12.20.08 - 12:02 am | #"
I agree, dryfly. But it might take quite a few years longer if we keep cushioning the blows. Those blows are just the economic signals to tell us what to do less of, so we can free up people to start doing other things.
we might get our export balance sheet balanced in less than a generation, but the fallout will be at least a generation. you can't adjust this kind of imbalance that quickly in this great a global downturn. i think.
HaloScan.com - Comments
WOW...Seattle times is making employees take one week of without pay..
OT:
Just watched the Moyers piece on military contracts for housing. The "whistleblower" guy was a disgruntled employee for sure, and clearly had some sort of ideological grudge with....I really have no clue as he made absolutely no sense.
What's upsetting is that Moyers usually is decent journalism, but after this I wonder if they didn't check facts or get an industry baseline for conduct or, dare I say have jumped the shark.
Sigh. More prattle about little understood subjects, by people who have zero frame of reference on what they report.
I guess even the "good" journalists punt once in a while.
CD come in later, around eleven, we have a gentleman who sells gems, and watches too. Cash only.
test
No blows are being cushioned. The market is equalizing as fast as it can, regardless of the actions of the treasury or the fed. The consumer is in the driver's seat. The outcome is totally in the consumer's hands.
Anyone want to read what some pissed of state workers think of Arnold:
404 - Not Found - sacbee.com
test
crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.20.08 - 12:16 am | #
Test for what? What is it you guys are always testing?
Haloscan locked up on me...
cd writes:
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?
CD, fist of Congrats! Second, if you want to save about 90% on a real diamond check out:
http://www.betterthandiamond.com/
These are man made diamonds. They are real and the human eye cannot see the difference from a natural diamond.
To me this is a no brainer, but some people feel that this is cheating/not the real thing/etc...
Anyway just throwing it out there in case you want to save some $$$ without any sacrifice in quality.
I agree, dryfly. But it might take quite a few years longer if we keep cushioning the blows. Those blows are just the economic signals to tell us what to do less of, so we can free up people to start doing other things.
patientrenter | 12.20.08 - 12:05 am | #
On the otherhand if you don't cushion the blows some the prols storm the Winter Palace. That can set you back three quarters of a century. It's always a fine line.
Should the US adopt the Amsterdam practice of a special prostitution space in our cities - using vacant malls for the entreprenuerial businesses. Each store space could have their special blend of wild to vanilla offerings.
And there'd be ample space for a STD clinic in each mall. And of course some bars, strip joints/pole dancers, and associated 'adult' biz. Toy Stores!
And there'd be ample space for a STD clinic in each mall. And of course some bars, strip joints/pole dancers, and associated 'adult' biz. Toy Stores!
JimPortlandOR | 12.20.08 - 12:20 am |
And family church in the vacant anchor space.
OT Again.
If you want a real diamond it should be GIA NOT ISG Certified!
Big difference.
Good luck.
dryfly: "On the otherhand if you don't cushion the blows some the prols storm the Winter Palace. That can set you back three quarters of a century. It's always a fine line."
Well dryfly, the last Great Depression didn't end badly, it created the "Greatest Generation".
I feel we are sacrificing tomorrow for today.
Expediency. It makes for terrible longterm decisions.
Jim,
Yes. We'll be so proud our daughters can work there.
5:45 p.m. [C] Moody's cuts Citibank financial rating to 'C-' from 'B'
Back to the topic - Instead of demoralizing the populace by letting all the unused CRE rot before our eyes, ( or turning it into whorehouses), we should demolish (and recycle) the buildings, and return the ground to its original condition, capable of absorbing rainfall, and providing habitat. The only question is, of course, who pays? Maybe it could be part of the 'dig a hole, fill it up' equation.
Is SRS the deal of a lifetime below $60 right now? With the data on Commercial RE now out in the open, how high can we expect SRS to go?
Well dryfly, the last Great Depression didn't end badly, it created the "Greatest Generation".
Average Joe | Homepage | 12.20.08 - 12:31 am | #
There was a helluva a lot of 'gov't cushioning' going on in the US during the depression. WPA, CCC all kinds of 'make work'.
In fact that's the biggest complaint conservatives have against FDR is he didn't 'liquidate' everyone fast enough - the kind of thing that's easy to say with a full belly sitting comfortably in a warm house.
On the other side of the Atlantic there wasn't near as much 'cushioning' and people went up the smokestacks at places like Auschwitz and died by the millions outside Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad.
There are worse things than cushioning economic blows.
JimPortlandOR | 12.20.08 - 12:20 am
I like your idea. Thinking outside the box can generate stimulating solutions.
Vast expanses of barren homes, strip centers & big boxes is the future for 50+% of Las Vegas. Hell, 75% if the remaining residents move into all the empty tower condos nearer the strip. What happens to the rest?
Wake me up when Walmart closes.
And there'd be ample space for a STD clinic in each mall. And of course some bars, strip joints/pole dancers, and associated 'adult' biz. Toy Stores!
JimPortlandOR | 12.20.08 - 12:20 am | #
Don't know about that. "Lil' Darlings" strip club in Lemon Grove had a sandwich board out front that said "Free Lunch/No Cover" and didn't look like too many cars in the lot. I was tempted to do my Due Diligence, but I had to work. (This is the place that had to install a wheelchair lift for their dance platform, so as to comply with the ADA.) But if strip clubs are having problems, we're in big trouble.
"...the neighborhood starts having renters and foreclosures then the entire neighborhood suffers."
I knew it - the entire housing bubble and its aftermath in devastated neighborhoods is all due to a renter plot to kill the American Dream.
Some more ideas for the 'person for rent' biz in the malls:
So many stores having 50 - 75% off sales today & the mall / big box was still empty. Friday before Christmas and NO traffic around the mall? I saw 3 stores w/ going out of business signs, 2 were posted in the last two weeks - more empty space to fill.
This is suppose to get worse?! Scary sh*t.
Recovery won't start until "Made in USA" really means high quality stuff, not ridicule, stupid jokes and "yeah, right"-sneering.
Until the industrial base is sound enough to rebuild upon, the rest of the economy and the whole society will face horrible shit for years to come. Argentina 2001 style depression at least.
The best story I heard about a diamond ring, was a one carat engagment ring that a girl had been given by her finacee. About a week before the wedding, she found out he was "in flagrante" with one of the bridesmaids. So, to get even, she went to a jewelers, had the diamond removed and replaced with a $50.00 zirconium.She then flung the ring at him in the insuing argument.
About six months later, he got engaged to the very bridesmaid, who was proudly flashing the zirconium on her finger to all her friends.
Women can be so cruel.
I knew it - the entire housing bubble and its aftermath in devastated neighborhoods is all due to a renter plot to kill the American Dream.
rent_to_own | 12.20.08 - 12:48 am | #
LOL - I was thinking the same thing. I own a home in a neighborhood blighted by renters - like my neighbors who helped me shovel snow today. What a bunch of dead beats.
/snark
lol @ lefty
men are expert at gettin even too, lefty
(This is the place that had to install a wheelchair lift for their dance platform, so as to comply with the ADA.)
Good to hear that strip clubs aren't exempt from the ADA. Wheelchair bound strippers have just as much right to perform as anyone else.
Wheelchair lift to the stage: $15,000.
001 writes:
Back to the topic - Instead of demoralizing the populace by letting all the unused CRE rot before our eyes, ( or turning it into whorehouses), we should demolish (and recycle) the buildings, and return the ground to its original condition, capable of absorbing rainfall, and providing habitat. The only question is, of course, who pays? Maybe it could be part of the 'dig a hole, fill it up' equation.
001 | 12.20.08 - 12:38 am | #
Has anyone seen a liberal here?
DDD=(DK) - Do you have a better idea?
"Wheelchair lift to the stage: $15,000."
Gotta' spend money to make money. Never underestimate humans' appetite for the bizarre. Federally mandated or not, I'm betting that lift more than paid for itself.
Closet Liberal until 1980:
VVVVV
VVV
V
Hey, I live in Boise, Idaho. People here actually think retail space will be filled and people will buy condos in Downtown. They have no clue of what's coming ....
DDD=(DK) - Do you have a better idea?
001 | 12.20.08 - 12:57 am | #
Let it go, they don't listen - rain water (& gray water) on site recycle & reuse isn't far off it it won't be the 'pointy headed liberals' who make it happen. It will be when 'sound up right conservatives' realize the least expensive way to process water is to mimic the natural cycles as close to the point of use as possible. And in smaller 'units'. It's way cheaper to try and do that than it is to pipe fresh water in from OGKW (Only God Knows Where) then pump back out to some BF waste treatment plant. We were talking about that 30 years ago during my 'commie indoctrination' as a chemical engineer - in between learning to design distillation columns for photochemical facilities.
I don't know if they will bulldoze all of these sites but I wouldn't be surprised to see some revert to nature - either by design or neglect. Queue up the Talking Heads...
Sorry this comment is OT, but I'm in Denver, have been busy, and just now got a little time to relax.
RE that 33 oil. What I heard today was it was a short squeeze gone bad. Some hands had no intention of taking delivery on this, the last trading day of the F9's, but were betting that there were others who were going to do the well-published "deliver, store in tankers, sell forward" (for huge return due to the minimal charter rates) game, which would have squeezed the shorts.
And didn't happen, and the shorts had their way with them. Someone alluded to "don't look at last trading day" on the thread. Concur here.
And, RE "...down goes Denver..." Denver doesn't do oil any more. Damned if I know what they really do here, but it's not energy or mining anymore. And to a large degree, it still looks like the Land That Recession Forgot. But not forever, I'd be ready to wager.
Now, on to Chicago in AM before the Holiday Chaos starts in earnest next week.
we already have enough crap to trade back and forth on craigslist until at least 2015 without having to import another thing
"Boise, Idaho. People here actually think retail space will be filled and people will buy condos in Downtown."
Hey, they had a shot at it...and blew it. Instead of the plan your scoffing at, the sheeple built sh#t-boxes in Nampa. How's that working out? And would everyone that built their own particle board castle now trade it for something close to work? Close to some stores? Close to existing police and fire services? Close to, dare I say it, people? Community?
Your = You're, above. Homophones kick my ass after the 8th beer.
Someone alluded to "don't look at last trading day" on the thread. Concur here.
Austin Tex,
That was I who posted an observation from several years ago re nat gas selling for what I said was ten cents a Bcf [it was really a dime a MMcf (BBtu) of course] on delivery day when all the pipes were full and there was no place to store it.
My point was basically don't believe in delivery day pricing when storage is full. Strange things happen and they don't reflect a trend.
Maybe it could be part of the 'dig a hole, fill it up' equation.
001 | 12.20.08 - 12:38 am | #
Oh you can count on that.
One guy digs while seven look on. Take turns doing that all day long. This will be the new welfare. No, I should say its been a form of welfare happening for ages and thats part of Americas problem.
"cd writes:
OT- Can someone give me a general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut, good quality would run? Best place to find? trust wholesalers in la or such?"
Is this for enjoyment or investment? I was speaking to someone I know who graded diamonds for quite a few years and now sells high-end watches. Very knowledgeable and successful at what he does.
I asked him last month about investing in jewelery because of what's going on and he basically told me to forget it. For diamonds he said anything other than very large, as in 10ct and above it's not worth it. Prices fluctuate a lot.
He also has always told me stick to high quality over size. You need to really speak to someone you can trust who is very knowledgeable so that they can point out which of the 3 C's and it which combination matters the most.
Spend a LOT of time and do a lot of due diligence and find someone you can trust when buying jewelery.
"NY will lose $178M from 6 Goldman bonuses alone"
Expired
178 Million from the STATE TAXES on their bonuses alone!!!
Excuse me, but how in the world is the Average Joe supposed to send his money to these people bi-weekly in his 401K and expect to get MORE back?
The only difference between Madoff and the rest of Wallstreet is that Madoff knew he was conducting a Ponzi scheme.
jimportlandor,
turn the malls into giant night clubs. awesome! rent spaces to independent club owners like a hair salons rent stalls to hairdressers.
Tell us, Mr. fly, what do the folks in the MN think about federal funds to repair and refurbish bridges?
"Hint: we're keeping personal transportation for a while longer."
Another hint - not for everyone. However, the insurance industry, for one, will fight like hell to keep all of America's car owners paying for insurance. Nothing like a nation with more cars than drivers - living in an insurer's paradise.
However, the insurance companies will also be happy to see as many of those revenue producing owners drive as little as possible. It reduces claims, after all. Green is the new green, at least for insurance companies. Money may not grow on trees, but in corporate America, that old green was always the guiding principle.
There is much more to America's car industry than meets the eye, but a lot of people simply gloss over the entire subject. Especially considering how completely entrenched the insurance companies are within the American economic and political system.
Personal transportation involving walking, bicycles, or rail - bad for America, regardless of the benefits for the individual. Personal transportation involving taxes, insurance, fees - good for America (look what happens when voters reject a state vehicle fee - leads to catastrophe), and worth preserving to the tune of tens to hundreds of billions of dollars. What, you think a lot of that TARP money isn't going to insurers, many of whom also handle auto insurance - not merely individual, but also at the dealership level and corporate level.
That NYtimes piece about Madoff linked above - compiled by 11 reporters - answers many specific details about the Madoff Fund's accumulation of investor money. But I can't forgive it for not bothering with asking a simple question like why can a hedge fund get away with this? No mutual fund could ever become a true ponzi scheme. I bet Madoff keels over like Ken Lay and NOTHING changes. I can't think of a single person who was fired because of the 11th Sept. terrorist attacks. And many who should've overseen domestic air defense were promoted. S.C.R.E.W. T.H.E.M. A.L.L.
rent_to_own,
You left out the parking and speeding ticket racket that keeps many a municipality afloat, revenue-wise.
To 001 and other not in my backyard liberals:
Your perception of the world is way off. Travel to anywhere in Asia an behold what has become the most polluted continent on Earth because you libs ran manufacturing out of this country because you didn't want it in your backyard. Now, those same manufacturers are polluting the planet 10x worse than the ever would have if you'd let them stay here, regulated and producing living wages. Now you're targeting the lowest-polluting automobile fleet in the world, infrastructure, buildings, rain water, the air. What next? A tax on humans for breathing out CO2? Perhaps you should tax BHO for breathing out 5000 chemicals when he chain smokes.
The other side of this is that libs are generally afraid of people who can build something with their hands- you know, real men. The same men who hunt, men who farm, men who take wives and produce responsible children, men who serve their country, men who help others more than they receive...
Hell, the ill-understood topic of "free parking" deserves a <a href"http://www.amazon.com/High-Cost-Free-Parking/dp/1884829988>752 page book
<a href="http://www.amazon.com/High-Cost-Free-Parking/dp/1884829988>a 752 page book
CD come in later, around eleven, we have a gentleman who sells gems, and watches too. Cash only.
Leftys Liquors & Lubricants | 12.20.08 - 12:15 am | #
Lefty, how about automatic weapons?
SRS to 200+ ????
Men who post troll rants at 1:35 am...
el lurko writes:
Men who post troll rants at 1:35 am...
el lurko | 12.20.08 - 1:44 am | #
Yet another fascist lurking the threads.
Unfortunately the hedgies are getting access to a new 200B credit facility in Feb. The good news is that strongly implies we get another major downleg in January. The bad news is CRE will be saved for another day come Feb.
You know what I really like about Ken Cooper's CR Companion is how you can take a really irritating poster (oh, for example, DD4me) and just by labeling him an irritating poster, he disappears . . . so long as the filter settings are set to filter "All but Irritating Posters."
Sure, the assholes of the world change their id every post, but they always disappear after one post, too. Given that the internet is still a free world, they get a free sucker punch and then they're gone.
It's like magic.
Who lets a 14-year-old stay up until 1:35am? DK's parents should be ashamed.
The same men who hunt, men who farm, men who take wives and produce
DD4me | 12.20.08 - 1:35 am | #
Shazam! I thought you polygamists were keeping a low profile.
And yet DD4me, you lost in Nov.
Maybe there's more to libs than you realize.
Not that CR should never be a place for politics (especially now that the political economy is more political than economy), but I find I learn more from the posters here when the topic is at least tangentially related to economics.
So, a question for those of you discussing diamonds as an investment. I know nothing about it, but it seems to me that a commodity that relies on ad campaigns and a vault in Antwerp is bordering on tulip territory. Not to mention the fact that the process for determining whether you have a real or synthetic diamond involves testing for flaws...in the real diamond.
"There was jubilation in Sark last week when the islands first fully democratic election gave a resounding No to attempts by the billionaire businessmen Sir David and Sir Frederick Barclay to win representation on the island council, the Chief Pleas. Joy was swiftly followed by anger, though not surprise, at the brothers response.
In retaliation, the Barclays shut their businesses in the tiny Channel island, including two hotels, a pub, a restaurant and a construction company, sacking 140 of their own workers a fortnight before Christmas."
It's the Siege of Sark as islanders keep the Barclay brothers at bay - Times Online
I can relate.
general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut
cd | 12.19.08 - 11:08 pm | #
Shows how much we love you cd, that no one (until now) pointed out vegetables aren't high quality gems. carats!
el lurko,
You are correct -- most diamonds are not particularly rare or precious, but DeBeers strives to give that impression. Only large flawless would qualify as a true investment, although I'm not exactly sure what the cut off point would be.
Still, they are pretty, and those wanting a good marriage shouldn't skimp -- the wife will have a continuous reminder of you on her finger forever, and you want it to be a good one.
general ballpark price on a 1.5-2 carrot diamond princess cut
cd | 12.19.08 - 11:08 pm | #
And how many of you goldbugs are dealing in twenty-four carrot gold?
"Is this for enjoyment or investment? I was speaking to someone I know who graded diamonds for quite a few years and now sells high-end watches. Very knowledgeable and successful at what he does.
I asked him last month about investing in jewelery because of what's going on and he basically told me to forget it. For diamonds he said anything other than very large, as in 10ct and above it's not worth it. Prices fluctuate a lot.
He also has always told me stick to high quality over size. You need to really speak to someone you can trust who is very knowledgeable so that they can point out which of the 3 C's and it which combination matters the most.
Spend a LOT of time and do a lot of due diligence and find someone you can trust when buying jewelery."
Earlier anonymous post was by me.
sdtfs,
Per Wiki:
The carat (abbreviation ct or kt) is a measure of the purity of gold alloys. In the United States and Canada, the spelling karat is used, while the spelling carat is used to refer to the measure of mass for gemstones.
Actually, for the very best deal in diamonds go to the high-end pawn shops in Beverly Hills. You can get a killer stone for a basement price, which you can then take over to the Diamond District for a custom setting. Just don't tell the wife, because she won't like a "used" rock.
this is a test. just a test.
Where do synthetics come into the picture? They seem like a game changer, but I know nothing about them. Are there size constraints? Big fixed costs?
And as far as the wife goes, she left her 1.75 beauty on a night-stand in Costa Rica. We still laugh about it, and probably would rather have the setting back as we designed it together. I sometimes wonder how we'll view things like engagement rings 10 years hence.
Here's another warning for you SRS investors.
The current level of the DJUSRE (the underlying index) is about 134. It was also 134 about 8 trading days ago. Nevertheless, SRS is down 20% over that time.
The Ultrashort funds are poison in high volatility markets. You are going to get crushed and lose a lot of money, even if your macro call is correct (i.e. if commercial real estate drops 50% or so).
If you buy SRS, you had better do it immediately before it makes a consistent move downward.
this is a test. just a test.
gabyjan | 12.20.08 - 2:33 am | #
If this had been a real comment, you would have told to tune your radio to a local emergency broadcast station, for local updates on real estate economics and finances.
"el lurko writes:
Where do synthetics come into the picture? They seem like a game changer, but I know nothing about them. Are there size constraints? Big fixed costs?"
Most people who want a synthetic diamond just go with a CZ. A few people can tell the difference, but most can't. I use blue, white, and orange CZs in my tie-tacks.
"Here's another warning for you SRS investors.
The current level of the DJUSRE (the underlying index) is about 134. It was also 134 about 8 trading days ago. Nevertheless, SRS is down 20% over that time.
The Ultrashort funds are poison in high volatility markets. You are going to get crushed and lose a lot of money, even if your macro call is correct (i.e. if commercial real estate drops 50% or so).
If you buy SRS, you had better do it immediately before it makes a consistent move downward."
Thanks for the warning. Still holding my SRS. BTW VIX has gotten crushed lately.
SC,
Somebody I read made a rather obvious yet brilliant observation -- every time SRS and/or SKF spikes upwards short the hell out of it. The spikes are always short-lived, and the ETF gets hammered afterwards. Practically a money-tree, if you're there to harvest when it blooms. Can't wait for the next opportunity myself.
One of the good things about gay-friendly clubs is that the women are more inhibited and nobody shoots me negative vibes ( unlike when I do job interviews ). Who would have thought fifty would suck in such a different way than I imagined or that i'd have so much free time. ( or that I'd get propositioned by such young swingers )
ShortCourage:
Dude, cut it out with the late night service announcements: you need to be preaching that sh#znit at 10:30am on a weekday. People, probably somewhat smart people who read CR, don't even have a clue as to what these things are. You're one of the few folks on here who consistently speak truth about those blood-suckers - keep it up.
Which is not to say it will gain you many friends: I almost got punched out by a guy I work with because, in as friendly manner as I could, I had to show him on paper the exact point where his head entered his @ss.
tj & the bear,
Yeah, but if the underlying DJUSRE index starts its (inevitable, in my mind) collapse, and it goes down day after day, like it did a month ago, then you could get crushed shorting SRS.
I prefer to do LEAPs against the component companies, so I have a year or two for fundamentals to play out...I don't like trying to be right on a day-to-day basis.
And I really don't like holding SRS (I've paid for my mistake of doing so, without first understanding it).
el lurko,
I wish somebody had pulled my head out of my @ss before I invested in it before fully understanding it! So I will keep up with the public service announcements, whenever it is on-topic as it is now...
Goodnight, all.
"So I will keep up with the public service announcements."
Good - I hope the good aloha you create when you educate folks comes back to you...at least enough to cover your losses. 'night
sdtfs thanks for letting me know that im seen here.
anon 11:38
Interesting stuff. Is it from a book?
CR, any chance we can get a thread for expats like the Daily Kos has? These late night threads die out when I wake up here in Dubai.
One of the good things about gay-friendly clubs is that the women are more inhibited and nobody shoots me negative vibes ( unlike when I do job interviews ). Who would have thought fifty would suck in such a different way than I imagined or that i'd have so much free time. ( or that I'd get propositioned by such young swingers )
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.20.08 - 2:44 am | #
Not that that is a bad thing. BTW: I also know exactly what you mean, about the sex object part, whocouldanode(sp?) after I passed fifty it's been one stalker after another. I wish they'd grow up and just throw my ass on the floor and have their way with me. Once they've done that, they'll appreciate what it means to leave some things to the imagination. I am, after all, only human.
He also has always told me stick to high quality over size.
Pissed Off In California | 12.20.08 - 2:25 am | #
This argument always sells during the negotiation phase of a relationship. Generally, I find many if not most suffer buyers remorse afterward.
From the FT:
Hedge funds get bailout money.
FT.com / US / Economy & Fed - Hedge funds gain access to $200bn Fed aid
--
"... but it is pretty clear the mall vacancy rate will rise sharply in 2009.:
This in no way would suggest that CRE was as overbuilt, or more, than RRE.
All it would mean is that the demand for CRE would keep falling lot faster than the demand for RRE. You can't blame CR's forecast, or assessment, for what happens in the future. How is he to know that demand for CRE would take a "Cliff Diving?
And no Cliff Diving for the US economy either as per CRs recession forecast. After all, Obamas stimulus plan, designed by economists, would jolt the economy into a recovery next year. CHANGE is coming to America.
Jas
"After all, Obamas stimulus plan, designed by economists, would jolt the economy into a recovery next year."
Oh, another stimulus PLAN! How original!
And when the smoke clears out and Godzilla is even more pissed off and hellbent to destroy even more stuff just because IT CAN, then what?
Space vacant...shocker. Just wait 6 months.
Retailers are retreating and manufacturers will be right behind them. Supply is contracting in 2009 faster than demand (of course demand's crash already occurred in '08).
Winners are gaining market share for valuable future positioning.
Another oil company tool.
CNN Meteorologist: Manmade Global Warming Theory 'Arrogant'
Jas "This in no way would suggest that CRE was as overbuilt, or more, than RRE. "
I can't remember which side of the argument you were on and I know your post is dripping with sarcasm. However, CRE followed the RRE and is now just as overbuilt, especially when retailers contraction gains speed in the coming months.
Since this is a CRE thread and SRS has been mentioned several times I was hoping to get some thoughts on a few things SRS related.
First, the composition of the index it is based on has some odd balls in there.
Simon Property Group 7.76%
Vornado Realty Trust 4.69%
Public Storage 4.56%
Equity Residential 4.31%
Boston Properties Inc. 3.99%
ProLogis 3.87%
HCP Inc. 3.59%
Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. REIT 3.08%
Kimco Realty Corp. 2.90%
Avalonbay Communities Inc. 2.71%
Does Public Storage get hurt in the housing collapse? I see auction notices in my paper all the time for any number of these storage firms that are auctioning off contents due to non-payment. I have to believe that people will put their crap in storage for a few months and after a few months of not needing it will not feel compelled to keep paying "rent" to store their crap.
The one that has me scratching my head is Plum Creek Timber. I "think" that the collapse in building has got to hurt them since demand for lumber surely has gone down. Will PEBO's infrastructure spending help these guys out?
On balance there's more stuff in the top 10 by index weight here that I'd rather be short than long so I'm alright with it but looking for some confirmation/refutation of my thoughts on some of these companies.
I don't believe you're really from Long Island as everyone actually from Long Island says that they're "on" Long Island and not "in" it
JS,
No really, born and raised on Lawn Guyland.
"CHANGE is coming to America."
...as in, 'Brother, can you spare a dime?
JS writes:
I don't believe you're really from Long Island as everyone actually from Long Island says that they're "on" Long Island and not "in" it
...unless you're dead, in which case 'in' would be more accurate...
Bruce writes:
Another oil company tool.
Welcome to the Business & Media Institute arti...1218205953.aspx
Bruce | 12.20.08 - 8:44 am | #
'Meteorologist' is right up there with 'astrologist'.
.
Does Public Storage get hurt in the housing collapse?
Why don't you ask the guys running the company?
PUBLIC STORAGE (ticker: PSA) shares have been posting sharp gains in recent weeks. But while investors load up on the real-estate investment trust, longtime Chairman B. Wayne Hughes and two children who also serve as company directors have been selling off large sums of shares.
Altogether, the Hughes triumvirate sold 5.4 million Public Storage shares on the open market for $342 million in transactions taking place on Nov. 12 through Dec. 4, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The shares were priced at $55.67 to $68.35 a piece.
Looks like the CR board gets the Congressional medal for services to the brewing industry for the fourth months running...
Miller will host the presentation ceremony. Kos will compere.
Seriously, my lot are buying cheap gifts for Christmas, and the stuff we might indulge in waits til the January firesales.
C
Thanks, 12th %ile:
My gut feeling is confirmed. You don't need lots of stuff in a hobo villiage.
I prefer to sell in-the-money calls on IYR rather than hold SRS. I get some leverage and I hope to collect premiums when IYR inevitably tanks. Of course, my down-side is unlimited unless I buy out of money calls to created a spread. However, I hate paying insurance premiums for an event that I consider unlikely.
I would rather sell calls on SRS or even buy puts on SRS as a way of hedging my naked short calls on IYR. As we have seen, it is possible for SRS and IYR to both go down in the same timeframe.
12th Percentile writes:
Does Public Storage get hurt in the housing collapse?
Why don't you ask the guys running the company?
Back to your comment--I hadn't seen this used as an indicator or 'index' of RRE health or long term general consumption, but it seems intuitive.
12th percentile,
Thanks for that.
I bought SRS at $60, 7.5% of total portfolio, took some profits at $65 now down to 6% total. I think there is real money to be made but, new lows in between wouldn't surprise. Fed can buy CMBS and lower spreads but the Fed can't force banks to lend or consumers to consume. Bumpy ride ahead for SRS, lots of pain but @ $60 or lower I sleep good.
Barney Frank has plans for TARP money
Congress Will Set Conditions for $350 Billion in Rescue Funds - Bloomberg.com
Samdog writes:
"CHANGE is coming to America."
...as in, 'Brother, can you spare a dime?'
Samdog | 12.20.08 - 9:40 am | #
It happened today at Wallie World. I'm in early to beat the matinee crowd. A guy is counting out pennies and nickles and dimes to make a purchase and he asked me, "Have you got six cents?"
I said, "I ain't got no sense." and moved to another register.
The one person I talked to said they had a store meeting and sales are down, YOY for them. He said, "We won't know for sure until it's over."
New post is up. I have a feeling CR will be busy this Saturday between CRE and Madoff.
--
'I know your post is dripping with sarcasm.'
GC,
By galley, you got it! I do know the fatal flaw in CR's thinking, but none with his reporting. CR and most economists, suffering from growth fetish, have serious problem with estimating demand. Hell, they can't even 'estimate' the past demand. As usual, I forecasted Demand Destruction to occur two years before it really started.
Always early, never late, and rarely wrong in foreseeing serious problems,
Jas
Americans bought too much crap on credit. They needed a place to store their extra crap. So they got a public storage locker. $100 a month to clean some crap out of their homes.
$1200 a year after taxes. That would come in pretty handy these days.
I'm pretty certain there weren't any public storage facilities during the depression.
I have not seen any industry numbers but driving around it just seems like this industry is ridiculously overbuilt. There are public storage places out in the middle of nowhere. If you live in the middle of nowhere, you can just pile shit in the yard and put a real tarp over it.
This time it won't be "liquidate the farmers" it will be "liquidate the strip mall retailers"
New thread needed.
Why did she take the ring off?
I like diamonds.
Persons who replace large diamonds and laugh about it are likely to be fabulous hubs.
"The negotation phase of a relationship". . . . you think you are negotiating, hunh??
Hahahahahahahahahahaha.
Ask and u shall receive.
On to new thread.
I have not seen any industry numbers but driving around it just seems like this industry is ridiculously overbuilt. There are public storage places out in the middle of nowhere. If you live in the middle of nowhere, you can just pile shit in the yard and put a real tarp over it.
12th Percentile
More and more of the High end u-store-its. Temp. controlled, smoked glass windows resembling office bldngs.
I do not believe that Jo-Ann Fabrics (JAS) is in bankruptcy. The company that is in bankruptcy is Joan Fabrics, which I believe does textile manufacturing.
The page cannot be found
CRE will get hammered next year.
If you recall I have a retail store which is the anchor for a strip I own (in virginia). From talking to other retailers (tenants and others) I would say YEARLY sales are down at least 30% for everyone.
My competition of two recently built shopping centers within a mile are facing a double whammy of having spaced never leased and rewriting leases downwards. Though I never charged as much as the other guys (pre writedowns) effective january 1st I will slash rents by 25% and keep my fingers crossed that I won't lose anyone else.
Another point. Anchor stores generally pay low (single digit) rent and the smaller spaces that feed off the anchors are where the mall owners make the big bucks. If the anchors are hurting I can assure you the small players are bleeding worse. And if an anchor(s) goes out you might as well roll up the entire shopping center.
Happy Hanukkah, everyone!
George Bush Hanukkah Celebration
YouTube -
Hahahahahahahahahahaha.
lawyerliz | 12.20.08 - 10:41 am | #
No, not really.
"They needed a place to store their extra crap. So they got a public storage locker. $100 a month to clean some crap out of their homes."
Excuse me if this info is a repeat, but I thought it was interesting. The entire public storage business is built on inertia: people who sign up anticipate they will only use the unit for three months, but instead average about three years. As you say, 12th percentile, that money could com in handy during a recession. I noticed that Wayne Hughes recently sold a huge pile of PSA stock. He's very savvy and I'm sure sees the writing on the wall. (Although he's dim enough to be telling my buddy's wife that now is absolutely the time to buy a house!)
Thanks all on diamond topic..
TJ,
Actually, for the very best deal in diamonds go to the high-end pawn shops in Beverly Hills. You can get a killer stone for a basement price, which you can then take over to the Diamond District for a custom setting. Just don't tell the wife, because she won't like a "used" rock.
This was my thought, plus use Topher's idea (thank T) and utilize friend's contact in la d district..
Would buying diamonds in s. america be risky? cheaper?
As CR noted - those square footage & vacancy numbers are rough estimates based on average store size & in 2 cases the number of stores closing was estimated (since the company has not made an official announcement yet).
I don't think that Bally's has said that they will be vacating all of their space. I read that they are looking for a buyer and have several that may be possibly interested.
Lk - I agree. Of 400 properties Bally has, I estimated 100 will close. 200 properties * 26,000 SF average size = 2.6 million SF (which is what is used on the graph).