Citizen AllenM writes:
"This really is the death of modern big box retail here too."
Who is going to compete with big-box retail? They have driven the retail margins to such a low level that only online retailers with no bricks and mortar can compete. And not everything can be sold online. Although I must admit that we buy most of our groceries online and have them delivered. No charge for orders over $100, and how many food shopping exercises come in under $100 any more?
I keep wondering what are they going to do if they manage to squeeze out most everybody else just about the time China goes civil unrest in a big way...
Smart retailers will file for BK on Friday right after Xmas to stiff the return cycle.
This downward cycle is going to be tremendously magnified by all of the leverage Wall Street used to remove wealth from ongoing concerns.
Biden is right, this is about to get much worse, and there is no quick bandaid solution that will restore us to 2005.
Now we begin a brutal mid 30/70s style search for new things that will create employment for the huge numbers of displaced workers.
As the dollar drops, we will become even more competitive, but for right now, countries that can devalue in an orderly fashion are doing so in the race to the bottom.
The biggest problem is that they are still measuring themselves against the dollar. The Russians should have sold out their entire dollar stock and converted to euros and yen, that drop in confidence might have been enough to break the dollar.
No matter, the dollar is toast, just watch the unstoppable appreciation in the Yen. Oil is a minor problem compared to what is going on in the international terms of trade. Our bond bubble seems to be the last great bubble going.
CR, you are justified by past trends but the vibe I'm getting is "retail earthquake." We are talking about a toy store BK before Christmas. The anchor stores and medium box ripples will crush the niche mall occupants. If you are a small retailer you are selling for Christmas cash and running receivables up. The big boxes are likely to have rheir own troubles. They've weakened their supply chain with agressive terms and at the same time lengthened them spanning continents destroying closer capacity in the process.
I have a national tenant in one of my spaces that called a few weeks ago and was asking for rent concessions..they 200+ locations in the US and they claim to be calling all landlords for these concessions, otherwise they are going to file for bankruptcy.
They have come national real estate workout group do their dirtywork trying to strong arm us...I told them NO deal...
This really is the death of modern big box retail here too.
Yes and No.
The mid-tier (Sears, Kohls, JCP, Best Buy, Macy's) will die off. I still don't understand Kohl's. Almost everything they sell can be found cheaper at 1) online or 2) at WMT / Target. The same can be said for the other's on my list as well.
The cockroach of Walmart (and possibly Target) will survive.
dawg, don't read too much into KB. The only malls I see KB Toys stores in anymore are areas where they cling to their bibles and guns (poor rural areas that are landfills for our white trash).
Rob Dawg(Excellent) writes: The big boxes are likely to have rheir own troubles. They've weakened their supply chain with agressive terms and at the same time lengthened them spanning continents destroying closer capacity in the process.
Some here say it's not the way to do it..As requested in previous thread, how do we bring change without it? How do you stop Paulson from getting the next 350 20 days before he is gone...Why give it to him...please help me understand..The hedge fund fed program hurts my head already...
You can protest in front of fed all day long ( I have ) but it will get you weird looks and a few honks..
This actually might be the only way to change this outcome....since were going down the path of destruction anyhow, why not shake the sheeple up a little so they can question why the anarchists are wrong...
Sex pistols..
Anarchy for the u.k its coming sometime and maybe
I give a wrong time stop a trafic line
Your future dream is a shopping scheme cos i
I keep wondering what are they going to do if they manage to squeeze out most everybody else just about the time China goes civil unrest in a big way...
China will turn those 78K shut down factories into a war machine. Put lots of people to work, kills a lot of people decresing the size of the labor force. We did it in WW11 doubt if they will be any different.
I knew a new thread was coming because my last thread comment was over ten lines...
It was on IMF and bonds if anyone's interested.
Is there an aggregate index for mid-range retail? Gut instinct says they're toast. I've been shopping low-end and niche/boutique; haven't been to Macy's, Kohl, Nordstrom et al for over a year.
Speaking in Moscow on Tuesday, chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, General Nikolai Makarov, just about lifted the veil on the geopolitics of the Afghan war to let the world know that the Bush administration was having one last fling at the great game in Central Asia. Makarov couldn't have spoken without Kremlin clearance. Moscow seems to be flagging its frustration to Obama's camp. Makarov revealed Moscow had information to the effect that the US was pushing for new military bases in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Coincidence or not, a spate of reports has begun appearing that Russia is about to transfer the S-300 missile defense system to Iran. S-300 is one of the most advanced surface-to-air missile systems capable of intercepting 100 ballistic missiles or aircraft at once, at low and high altitudes within a range of over 150 kilometers. As long-time Pentagon advisor Dan Goure put it, "If Tehran obtained the S-300, it would be a game-changer in military thinking for tackling Iran. This is a system that scares every Western air force."
It is hard to tell exactly what is going on, but Russia and Iran seem to be bracing for a countermove in the event of the Obama administration pressing ahead with the present US policy to isolate them or cut them out from their "near abroad".
I'm ordering some Eurostar tickets in January to pick up some liquidation bargains. Combine all these BK's with the fact that Sterling is approaching parity with the Euro and it means I'm going shopping on London!
I'd be greatly happy to see the strip shopping centers that line the major roads in suburbia and the outer parts of cities all get leveled with people doing Obama WPA work - with the feds imposing the price of fairly rigid zoning standards on replacement uses. The US is REALLY UGLY in many of our cities with post-1960's strip malls, auto dealers, and what not making little economic sense and terrible eyesores. I guess that applies as well to many mini-malls as well.
Local governments let this happen in the search for a higher tax base, but at the same time gave stupid tax offsets and forgiveness periods.
Putting people to work on clearing this blight is real infrastructure building at the same time it removes the major overhang in retail supply in CRE.
The IMF suggestion is just silly. How is that supposed to happen? Every country is going to borrow massive amounts of money from the others simultaneously? Or every country is going to print enormous amounts of money simultaneously? Either way, there is going be a reality check.
My father is an independent truck driver (heavy goods driver in UK terminology), in a normal 4 or 5 months up to christmas he can expect to work as much - and perhaps more than - the legal limits.
This year, he's been getting 1, perhaps 2 days work per week.
15 national retailers going to the wall seems very, very conservative.
Over the past 8 yrs: Dotcom, housing, commodities...others all ending in tears. Where's the next speculative mis-allocation of capital via Wall St? It's nothing more than a system designed to fleece ordinary people of every nickel they have.
Wall St needs a complete overhaul or scrap it entirely. It has become an increasingly destructive economic force.
I know I shouldn't be this way but I love seeing the increasing amounts of gaping black maws of empty and shuttered stores beggining to litter our stip centers and malls around here (philly suburb).
My favorite one is a few miles away where there are three major sections to the stip mall. One had as an anchor a big Linen's and Things that just shuttered, the next one down has a Circuit City that has not closed yet but will next year and the next section down is anchored by a massive furniture retailer called Oskar Huber (a regional chain I believe) who has just finished liquidating after 81 years in business.
Every time I drive by I toast to what I sincerly hope is the death of the stripmall model and the end of the supersaturation of retail and commercial space.
Bond Girl - precisely - this from end of last thread:
Counterpointer writes:
I knew the IMF was revising the numbers; got a feed out of them on Friday. Fugly. Scary.
Bond Girl - the AAA sov paper coming to market in Q1 is colossal, rollovers and new funding; ditto commercial AAA and shit-backed paper.
Who on earth is going to be on the other side of the trade? There seems to be an assumption that there's no end of liquidity sitting on the sidelines waiting to snap up AAA as if it's a fortress investment. We'll see a wave of mutilation if the confidence levels are so low that the trade says damn this game, the sidelines look like a perfect place to sit this out. A fortiori if CBs also do not trust their peers' full faith and credit backing. Ain't far off.
Rob Dawg(Excellent) writes: The big boxes are likely to have rheir own troubles. They've weakened their supply chain with agressive terms and at the same time lengthened them spanning continents destroying closer capacity in the process.
Very astute, how do you see this playing out? Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 12:53 pm | #
Wow, my first "excellent", thanks. My short term view is the boxes relent and pay higher prices to suppliers to buy time to try and change their business model. Those efforts are likely to be along the lines of tighter vertical integration. They will fail. The end result we be far fewer items and far fewer or each item in a much, much smaller store backed up a rapid supply system. There are a lot of competing issues to deal with. The diesel price explosion scared a lot of retailers. Now the Dry Ship indexes are pulling tthem in an opposite direction. It will be easier for the survivors but that necssitates the disaster occuring first. Walmart, Target, Macy's can survive albiet with fewer stores. The era of saturation is gone. There will be some unobvious survivors as CRE costs plummet saving their bottom line from a top line contraction. I'd say the surface transport companies will respond and do well in the new environment.
Counterpointer: I agree. One thing I've learned the hard way is that when everyone and their dog is taking one side of a trade, the unwind is usually rapid, "shocking", and fugly.
Just remember the "Can't lose" bets of shorting financials and going long commodities last Spring. That turned out real well last Summer and Fall.
Just saw on the bottom ticker on CNN that Polaroid went Chapter 11 Dirk | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 1:26 pm | #
I think they filed on Friday. I suprised me. I thought that they died years ago. They never figured out how to transition away from film once digital cameras made their market obsolete. I hope Kodak survives.
So why does everybody always assume that Walmart can make it? I'm sure there margins are razor-thin and their supply chain is ridiculous. Are there any numbers to show that they are doing OK in the current environment?
Don't most of the larger retail chains have their own financing arms? If so, they are primed for a piece of the second $350B bailout next year. With the Fed easing requirements on their facilities and the precedent of giving TARP funds to the financing arms of the automakers I see a big propping up of these industries next year.
c energy- Spot on....40-1 leverage worldwide is really mindbending when you compare gdp of first depression indonesia, India, china etc etc etc..
Mr T..Ditto...many memories as kid of leaving LA cty, 3:00 AM heading to Baja Our vacation or nature took over after Irvine, orange groves, vines and scrub in IE before Mojave, camping in Oneill park in the middle of Ladera Ranch, vail lake when temecula was nothing...close but far
"Every time I drive by I toast to what I sincerly hope is the death of the stripmall model and the end of the supersaturation of retail and commercial space.
Mr. T. | 12.21.08 - 1:18 pm | # [kill][hide comment]"
If it's really true that the U.S. has several times the retail space per capita of most other developed countries... you may get your wish.
Me personally... I want to see the flea markets and farmer's markets move back into the center of town. That was the one thing I loved about Asia.
It will take more than hope. Kodak also bungled the transition to digital, and I haven't seen anything that gives me hope for the company as it currently is structured. All they really have at this point is an enormous patent portfolio.
Don't most of the larger retail chains have their own financing arms?
I believe many retailers got out of having to finance their own credit cards by facelifts of Wall Street Bank cards. Example: Amazon's credit card is JPM/Chase. You can't tell who you owe to until you get your bill. Those that haven't gotten out, will surely be forced to by non-existent lending to financial subsidiaries and no market for equities. I think Macy's card is also outsourced, but their card still gets a Macy's-label bill.
Dirk writes:
Just saw on the bottom ticker on CNN that Polaroid went Chapter 11
Tom Petters took them down in a ponzi scheme.. He was a small potato compared to Madoff, he only fleeced investors out of a couple billion....
He is resting in his jail cell now.
--
"I would amend to say only born and bred dopes believe in this market, they are in as well as some speculators, compulsive gamblers and plain batsh!t crazies...
citizen energyecon,
I could have told that more than ten years ago. Hell, I did.
I concluded in 1999 that Scam Lovers, at the very minimum, had to be dopes first. I used to refer to them as Investment Morons because these dopes truly do not know the definition of the term investment (they confuse speculation with investment).
I gained tremendous understanding about the American econo-political system and Americans, leaders as well as followers, during late 1990s working for "Crisco" Systems, one of the single biggest fraud operations in all of history. It wasn't hard unless one were a BBAD with belief in the general fairness of the system. All that was needed was healthy degree of skepticism of the propaganda machine and "leaders, especially, Captains of Industry (a term used by Veblen, one of my three favorite American writers/commentators).
Some of my best friends were Investment Morons and are BBAD & AD to this day. I believe that truth, as one sees, must be told without sugarcoating.
dawg, don't read too much into KB. The only malls I see KB Toys stores in anymore are areas where they cling to their bibles and guns (poor rural areas that are landfills for our white trash). badger boy | 12.21.08 - 12:49 pm | #
Well, the ad-hominem against the demographic aside, IIRC, KB has been up against Walmart for years - they were on the brink of BK at least two of the past five years - in other words, swamped and bailing hard...before the seas picked up.
The CHarlotte Observer airs some of the history of the GoldenWest deal.
Charlotte has buzzed with rumors for a while that lower level people in Wachovia had urged the board not to accept it. It's almost a kind of SEC-like "How could you be so blind" Sort of question now.
I gained tremendous understanding about the American econo-political system and Americans, leaders as well as followers, during late 1990s working for "Crisco" Systems, one of the single biggest fraud operations in all of history. Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 1:48 pm | #
I remember seeing a photo of one of the founders riding a horse and dressed as Lady Godiva. What a flake. Harmless, but a California flake nonetheless.
I've been getting several emails a day from Toys R Us. I've never shopped there and don't have kids.
I've also been getting a bunch of various offers for a business I closed 5 years ago.
It looks like a lot of people are scraping the barrel in their unsolicited marketing efforts in order to stave off the inevitable.
I look forward to people pouring more money into SPG and other CREITs this week. Go for it kids. If you were patient you could get them in half off sales after the holidays.
Biden's comments were pretty ominous, weren't they? Along with those from the Spanish banker. And pretty much every other piece of news.
snow still coming down in upstate new york. Has been for two days. For those in retail who believe in santa and god, they must feel like those higher powers are pissed off at them.
dawg, don't read too much into KB. The only malls I see KB Toys stores in anymore are areas where they cling to their bibles and guns (poor rural areas that are landfills for our white trash).
This isn't the first time for KB. They went TU back around... 2002 or 2003. I saw lots of stuff they had signed for, but still in the manf's warehouse, get dumped to Dollar General and various other distress outlets. With some luck, that will be repeated again this time.
Also check out the comments at the bottom of the Goldenwest Christmas Special... Plenty of pissed off employees and stockholders in this town. Almost like reading CR itself!
Amazon ebay and craigslist-we can sell shit to each other for the next 20 years!! Who needs box stores when the Jonses are having their bankruptcy sale?
--
"I remember seeing a photo of one of the founders riding a horse and dressed as Lady Godiva. What a flake. Harmless, but a California flake nonetheless."
NorkaWest,
Right you are. THE REAL HARM WAS DONE BY THE HIRED HANDSTHE PROFESSIONAL MANAGERS! In the particular case, by Mor... and Cham...
WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS, THE PROFESSIONAL MANAGERS IN THE US HAVE BEEN CROOKS, OR AGENTS OF THE CROOKS. Greenspan and Bernanke rank very high on this list.
Blind faith in a system managed by crooked leaders? And these "leaders" have firm grip on power rivaling that of the Church during the 13th Century.
Forms of human institutions change but the essence remains the same!
This isn't the first time for KB. They went TU back around... 2002 or 2003. I saw lots of stuff they had signed for, but still in the manf's warehouse, get dumped to Dollar General and various other distress outlets. With some luck, that will be repeated again this time.
One man's trash, is another man's treasure. RayOnTheFarm | 12.21.08 - 2:06 pm | #
The interesting thing is that KB Toys blames Walmart for their troubles with little blame going to the economy. It will be real interesting to see if Walmart can afford to support their supply chain, raise prices to pay for the retail war and keep growing their consumer volume. While we are at it I have never trusted Walmart's ability to consistently grow same store sales. Sounds very Madoff if you ask me.
Aldi's showed up herein Pittsburgh about 5 tears;go limited selection of off-brand items at very good price points. Some of here product is actually quite good. But don't buy the coffee unless you enjoy utter bilgewater!!
Seems the CRE guys are the exact same assholes as the FBs that refuse to lower the price of their stucco boxes. "My CRE is special and I will not lower my rates"
Here is a fact for you CRE "I'm special ASSHOLES" You were the first and only pricks to run to the banks crying VICTIM in the late 70's early 80's crash. Yes it seems you morons overpaid for CRE and cried for priciple reductions...and got them. So take your I'm not lowering my rates and shove them up your ass. You did lower your rates in that crash and you will lower your rates in this crash, or you will be underwater just like the FB's you are so fond of complaining about and running off to the TARP just like the banks you are fond of crying about.
And here is another news flash for mister I'm special CRE...if you don't lower your rates they will BK your ass and move across the street to that other so special CRE. Maybe you didn't lever up, but the guy across the street did and he needs tenets at any cost and will lower his rates to get them, even yours.
shopping north of NYC saturday, a few observations. At the BestBuy there were plenty of people, but not a soul at the flat screen tv wall-not a one. Across the street, the Hyundai and KIA dealers have closed. ChefCentral packed with born-n-breds. OfficeDepot had three cars in the lot. This was early afternoon.
Maybe you didn't lever up, but the guy across the street did and he needs tenets at any cost and will lower his rates to get them, even yours. - calex
"Tenets." I do not think that word means what you think it means. LoL.
--
"Though it doesn't surprise me in the least - there is a reason that they are so wealthy, after all."
rent_to_own,
There is a reason why all the reigning monarchs in Europe during 1700s, including the Stuarts, were of German decent. The Teutonic might.
The Anglo-American shopkeepers have inferior ethics compared to the German rulers of the warrior class. Purely Moneyed-class, in general, is inferior in ethics to the warrior and the priestly classes.
Moneyed-class engages in destroying the morals of the general population! You need proof?!
That is why it is the most dangerous class of rulers for any society. The Money-class of Great Britain and US was kept in check by the power and influence of the warrior aristocracy and the priestly class until, say, 100 years ago. Now the Moneyed-class reigns above all and is unchallenged in power.
The Money-class of Great Britain and US was kept in check by the power and influence of the warrior aristocracy and the priestly class until, say, 100 years ago
AP study finds $1.6B went to bailed-out bank execs
"Banks that are getting taxpayer bailouts awarded their top executives nearly $1.6 billion in salaries, bonuses, and other benefits last year, an Associated Press analysis reveals.
Benefits included cash bonuses, stock options, personal use of company jets and chauffeurs, home security, country club memberships and professional money management, the AP review of federal securities documents found.
The total amount given to nearly 600 executives would cover bailout costs for many of the 116 banks that have so far accepted tax dollars to boost their bottom lines."
badger boy writes: don't read too much into KB. The only malls I see KB Toys stores in anymore are areas where they cling to their bibles and guns (poor rural areas that are landfills for our white trash).
The converse would be heathens that are too gutless to defend themselves, and so farm out the duty?
Just lost our KB Toys here in southern Maryand, but the customers in the mall are 90% black.
The interesting thing is that KB Toys blames Walmart for their troubles with little blame going to the economy. It will be real interesting to see if Walmart can afford to support their supply chain, raise prices to pay for the retail war and keep growing their consumer volume. While we are at it I have never trusted Walmart's ability to consistently grow same store sales. Sounds very Madoff if you ask me.
On a floor sq-ft basis, I think the applicable departments in an average WalMart might be comparable to average KB (trying to remember what a KB looks like, as I have none close to me). TRU on the other hand, has a much larger floor space that WM does (for departments covering the same items). A few older TRUs are small, but some of the newer ones are huge.
If TRU rolls over, I think thats the key indicator. KB doesn't surprise me. TRU is supposed to have 10% SKUs that are 'exclusives' (i.e. you can't buy them at WM). While the manufacturers are happy to sell product to WM, I think they're wary of WM being the last retailer left standing. Thats why they play nice to TRU w/r/t the exclusives.
Concerning WM... if things get really rough, they can always go back to the old 6am - 10pm hours. The current 24/7 deal doesn't cost them that much extra (how many checkout lanes do you think they have open at 3am ?). WM is very integrated as to warehousing/trucking/etc. WM going down would be an indicator of the end times.
That deadmalls link is great: The worst and saddest I've seen is in Woodville, VA, not only is the mall dead, as in truly no stores open, but there's a dead fun park on the forecourt surrounded by chainlink as it silently rusts away.
opened a new tube of toothpaste just now. same size box as the old one. same size price as the old one. only the tube contains 1.5 oz less than the old one.
I came to the same conclusions (in late 1980s) as Sarkar and Batra before I read about their works. I disagree with Sarkar about the power of the masses. Masses can be led into anything. Leaders, especially, their ethics, are all-important for the well being of a society.
America and India have very bad leaders NOW. I have little doubts about this. Hence, my negative view of their future over the next two decades. Nothing positive will happen until these bad leaders are systematically destroyed. No, I have no particular solution as to how. I am a critic and an observer and not an activist of any stripe.
For those of you who read this article (posted on previous thread) about the IMF's concerns about global slowdown, did the following sentence make any sense to you?
The IMF has called for fiscal stimulus -- higher government spending and temporary tax cuts -- worth $120 trillion, or 2 percent of global annual economic output, to fill the gap caused by slumping private demand following the credit crunch.
I found this table of world GDP for reference. It seems the sum of world GDP is $64T. So if the 2% is correct, it would be a stimulus of $1.2T. I think the US will provide that easily.
The local GGP looks a bit slower than last year about this time. Salespeople all talk about how good it's been, then add, 'Well, it's slow right now, but...'
There's a growing recognition amongst the people I encounter and speak with of just how serious this all is. This cannot be seen as a good sign, per se.
I get the sense that we're about to go tip-toeing through the tulips while being chased by the bees.
""Tenets." I do not think that word means what you think it means. LoL."
Yep, more than a few sp in that rant. I have been looking for a new biz and it is amazing the lease some clowns of the Heloc craze are stuck in. No way these idiots sell their biz and save themselves from that monthly raping when I can open up shop across the street in a newly vacant space with a lower cost. Really, it is just amazing what some of these people agreed to pay the landlord, and the landlord financed on being able to collect that monthly nut.
USA = Snake oilmen 3rd world nation, no question about it anymore.
Friggin Madoff had as the main accountant firm one tiny company (with THREE PEOPLE!) in some rural village. One of workers was an old geezer (80 year old) living in Florida! And SEC did not do ANYTHING for years!
Now Madoff is out on bail and can hire his own guards and has been given HOME detention! Biggest fraud in the history and the boy is out again!
walked through an officemax and big5 yesterday about 2pm. both places were empty. i could hear two salespeople talking about "how nice the first customer today was" throughout the entire OM store.
very strange feeling to have on the weekend b4 xmas in the IE
O/T
I spoke with the postman, UPS driver, and FedEx supervisor I know . They all said volume was down
by more than 10%. I look for horrible numbers for
them and the online retailers. Worse than you think.
This is coming even with all the free shipping offers
out there.
While we are at it I have never trusted Walmart's ability to consistently grow same store sales. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 2:13 pm | #
I always thought that Walmart's insistence on dropping the price it paid to suppliers five percent a year was funny, after they went to Chinese manufacturers. You gotta know that the Chinese factories said, okeedokey and cut back ten percent of whatever they were putting into it. Some of the stuff looks like it wouldn't make it out of the store in one piece.
I have been looking for a new biz and it is amazing the lease some clowns of the Heloc craze are stuck in. No way these idiots sell their biz and save themselves from that monthly raping when I can open up shop across the street in a newly vacant space with a lower cost. Really, it is just amazing what some of these people agreed to pay the landlord, and the landlord financed on being able to collect that monthly nut. calex | 12.21.08 - 2:42 pm | #
A frequent poster here asked me to check out some simple roll up small industrial/commercial space for him. The neutron CRE economy is already here in Ventura County. The owners are still in denial. They tell themselves that because they've got 2-3 clients still paying 2005 prices the 8-10 empties are worth that much too.
Now Madoff is out on bail and can hire his own guards and has been given HOME detention!
He won't be going anywhere. I bet the paparazzi are following him 24-7.
Jas,
emsnews.wordpress.com has an excellent read on CLINTON CHARITY SCAM OPERATION OPENS DONOR LIST
" Now we go on to the other level of corruption: US retired Presidents using their connections to live high off the old hog. All retired Presidents are tempted to run Presidential libraries and charities but these things are simply ways of tying up people so they dont interfere with the status quo that is destroying America..."
When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." Frederic Bastiat,
Apropos Jas Jain's comments about priestly/warrior/monied classes;
The authoress Jane Jacobs made some similiar remarks in one of her books. I find some utility to looking at things in the way Jas puts it.
By the way Jane Jacobs also mentioned the "monstrous hybrid" that can result from mixing alien value systems into areas of life that work best with their original value system. For example mixing commercial attitudes with government functions.
Toys R Us ... If my keyboard had the backwards R, that would be a hint RayOnTheFarm | 12.21.08 - 2:48 pm | # Thank you. I stopped tracking them when they went private in 2005. Hope that the buyout debt doesn't kill them.
. I disagree with Sarkar about the power of the masses. Masses can be led into anything
I came to a similar conclusion, not based on Batra (which I read almost twenty years ago) but on empirical evidence over the past several years at various companies. A great deal of US cultural runs on subliminal lies.
Most Americans now are pliable, with no sense of honor or integrity, and project their own behavior onto others.
People who are paranoia are easily manipulated. Paranoia is a manifestation of ego. I suspect that most ego manifestations are handles for manipulation. Haven't tested it out the others, though, just paranoia.
Now Madoff is out on bail and can hire his own guards and has been given HOME detention! Biggest fraud in the history and the boy is out again!
one_timmy | 12.21.08 - 2:46 pm | #
I'm waiting for him to flee to another country. One with no extradition treaties, or easily bribed officials. He's the definition of flight risk.
Bank Executives making their $billions, is just a nail in the coffin for the "free enterprise" system mystic. Since we have had 30 years of the upper class socialism, I guess, no change will actually take place other than the recipients-everyone else...
I suspect that most ego manifestations are handles for manipulation. Haven't tested it out the others, though, just paranoia. Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 2:53 pm | #
Ahh, you mean Deimos and Phobos aren't our friendly moons of romance and desire. Amazing how the Greeks without advanced psychology managed to personify so many of our baser instincts.
Well the conditions of his home confinement included giving up his passport and forfeiting his real property.
Now, if he has fund squirreled away overseas, and in pricipally concerned about his life, perhaps could bolt to Zimbabwe or Somalia or some other lawless place.
I think he won't though. Even if he could shake off the FBI and the paparazzi, the bounty on his head from some seriously burned overseas investors should give him paude.
--
The right to remain ignorant is exercised by Americans more than any other right. And I fully respect that right. A short quote by Mencken is in order:
for democracy is grounded upon the instinct of inferior men to herd themselves in large masses, and its principal manifestation is their bitter opposition to all free thought.
There is a reason why America stopped producing Menckensthe democrats have triumphed. The free thought must be within the confines of accepted propaganda! The inferior men must protect themselves by hiding, intellectually!!
"Banks that are getting taxpayer bailouts awarded their top executives nearly $1.6 billion in salaries, bonuses, and other benefits last year
This is a fight that supersedes any duty to taxpayer. A broken social contract, but that's ok because the social contract was always mythical. The minute they stop paying themselves these bonuses is to admit they don't have the mystical talents to deserve them.
What was most egregious was inflating shareholder value through bail outs. To Wall Streeters, the bail out was the ultimate 'deal' that mere mortals couldn't have negotiated. That Congress couldn't have anticipated Bank behavior is a lie.
A comment fron ap 1.6 billion for bank execs link above...
Throughout the ages, fights against poverty have failed as their continuity proves. Today's events shed light on the reason why: The process that is being fought reconfigures itself continuously with the blessing of an unchanging law. By pocketing $1.6B, six hundred people stretched the divide between rich and poor to such an extent that it will take poverty fighters generations before they return to the place where they are now. It is not the fault of the execs, for no one can refuse what is being handed to him lest he be called a dunderhead. The fault is in a system that fails to change with the strategies of its abusers. Capitalism is neither easy nor linear. Good capitalism has a heart, and ours today is as rude and as gauche as the time when Jesus Christ chased the money hoarders from his father's house. We need a leader of a different sort, one whose chances of being crucified are more rather than less. And I don't see one coming.
reading the comments, I think the masses/sheeple are stirring..no wonder we are seeing more links referencing civil unrest is coming..
On Bullshit is an essay by philosopher Harry Frankfurt. Originally published in the journal Raritan in 1986, the essay was republished as a separate volume in 2005 and became a nonfiction bestseller, spending twenty-seven weeks on the New York Times Best Seller list.[1]
In the essay, Frankfurt sketches a theory of bullshit, defining the concept and analyzing its applications. In particular, Frankfurt distinguishes bullshitting from lying; while the liar deliberately makes false claims, the bullshitter is simply uninterested in the truth. Bullshitters aim primarily to impress and persuade their audiences. While liars need to know the truth, the better to conceal it, the bullshitter, interested solely in advancing his own agenda, has no use for the truth. Following from this, Frankfurt claims that "bullshit is a greater enemy of the truth than lies are."
Well the hub and I did our best to empty out Macy's, but I'm not sure they made any money off of us.
We got him 3 nice linen and silk shirts and some pants for $95. Tag price well over twice that. And some stocking stuffers. Using these buy X dollars, get Y dollars off coupons they sent us to get us to charge. We pay this card off every month anyway.
Clearly the sales people have been told to do ANYTHING to get stuff out of the store. One they reduced without our asking, because it had sold for less previously, then it was one cent under the get $15.00 bucks off price, so they raised it by one cent. Saw them doing this for someone else.
There was an impulse electronic buy in the men's dept. First they said we couldn't use the $15.00 off coupon, because it wasn't included, and on the fine print on the back it did say electronics not included. We looked grouchy and started to mumble about fine print (lawyers complaining about fine print!!), and the sales lady went off and in no time the manager overrode the programming in the computer and we got our money off.
Mall reasonably busy. A fair number of people carrying packages. Not enough I think to make up for previous non-shopping.
Actually we were at the mall to get my glasses straightened out because I stepped on them this morning, and didn't intend to spend any money at all.
But we were feeling particularly uninspired this year and hadn't bought our quota of Xmas (Winter Solstice) stuff, which was bumming out the hub, as he likes to spend money at Xmas.
He hates buying clothes, and almost always looks a bit shabby as a result. When I said, do you need clothes so we can use this coupon he looked like he was being punished, but was happy he found some stuff.
Bullshit takes more effort to refute than lies. A lie can be shown to be false, but the bullshitter just keeps coming up with more. Bullshitters in effect "print their own currency".
Most people just give up at some point, and go "Yeah ,yeah... whatever. Sounds like you know what you're talking about."
it is amazing the lease some clowns of the Heloc craze are stuck in
Tragegdy of the commons. They had no choice about price when they signed the lease. This is exactly why there's been a deep cultural taboo against debt.
I just finally decided that most people can't think well enough or long enough to understand that, it's far easier to put simple rules in place like the 10 Commandments and anybody that objects can figure out the reasoning for themselves.
This should be the wind-down of seventy years of debt accumulation but the Feds have shown surprising determination to keep the mythical wealth structure alive so I can't be sure.
Schumpeter's creative destruction is misleading. It's often not technology or businesses that are driver, it's the debt they carry. Look at the airlines. Pan Am is gone but Southwest carries on. Same technology, different cost sttructures from pensions.
Creative destruction is a way for the third generation to break free of the economic tyranny of the preceding two.
I come from a group/caste that would be classified as Moneyed-class (my distinguished warrior ancestor, not by rank but by deed, a tiger-killer (with a sword), had to give up warrior profession after becoming a Jain).
Jains are strict vegetarians and I am the only one in the family who eats and enjoys meat, especially, beef. I am anything but a practicing Jain.
I have very low opinion of my relatives in India, most of whom are businessmen and some of whom are rich. And they are "practicing" Jains no better than practicing Christians in America! Beware of labels!
Maybe war is no longer a viable recession/depression killer. Our 'funders' (Saudi's, China, et.al) would likely cut the funding. We don't have the manufacturing capacity to be an arsenal of anything. A draft would be internally very incendiary. We can't occupy the land masses of the mideast, south asia, southeast asia, Russia and China.
I guess we could just nuke everybody and absorb whatever they would throw at us as easily as we accept massive un-and-under employment.
It would be much easier for the US to just do some asset sales: Alaska, Tejas, Arizona, NV, Utah, and SoCal (with a warning to Idaho to be nice). Maybe the gulf of Mex. states too (New Mexico is a keeper).
Or how about a merger: downsized US plus Canada, with the Queen as head of state. Revert to the original lyrics of My Country Tis of Three. LBO!
Now Madoff is out on bail and can hire his own guards and has been given HOME detention!
Federal court of NYC is famously corporate friendly. Companies will open an office in the City just to file bankruptcy there. The original order for Madoff was night curfew. He could, and did, walk the streets during the day. It's pathetic that he's not in jail right now.
Liz, last year I bought a pair of sneakers at Kohls which I thought were priced at 29. The cashier said the computer had it at 35, so I went and checked; she was right. But then she let me have them for 29, despite my protests. I still haven't gotten over that
"WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS, THE PROFESSIONAL MANAGERS IN THE US HAVE BEEN CROOKS, OR AGENTS OF THE CROOKS. Greenspan and Bernanke rank very high on this list."
Holding the requisite MBA from Harvard and associated Ivy League schools. Never forget to become a professional it is first necessary to hold the certificate. I like to consider it to be the needed hall pass for the corridors of power.
--
"Jas, Why not just go all the way and really rub our noses in it? Mencken had German parents."
kidbuck,
Mencken was an American and so am I. We just happen to be more independent minded than the herd-mentality and degraded democrats.
As I said, I respect people's right to remain ignorant. There is nothing more I wish on this blog than for such people to block me. Go ahead, make my day!
"Most Americans now are pliable, with no sense of honor or integrity, and project their own behavior onto others."
and
"People who are paranoia are easily manipulated. Paranoia is a manifestation of ego."
Broward, are you saying people are too complacent, hence conformists, or too paranoid? Couldn't quite follow your logic.
More importantly, I wouldn't cite Schneier's work on crypto to make a case against conformity. The days of proprietary algorithms (and their manipulation) are better left behind us.
--
"Oh, plz. What about George Carlyn (before his demise) as a latter day Menken? Satire is hardly dead. You haven't watched Colbert or Stewart recently? And Christopher Buckley's stuff?"
lawyerliz,
Was it directed at my comments? Comparing third-rate sh*theads to Mencken? But, beauty (or talent) is in the eyes of the beholder.
America produces lot of cheap intellectual content. And most of the world has followed America's lead in mass-marketing trash, material as well as intellectual.
Jas, you are absolutely correct about the vital role played by military-state elites and their ethical outlook in sustaining a civilization. The best examples are of course the Kshatrya, the Junker and the Samurai.
Sadly, sovietism and americanism managed to destroy them via military defeat, indoctrination and the libidinal ethos of consumerism.
Just as an anecdote, I know of a Junker family who was disappropriated from their manor and expelled by the communists in 1945. The cemetery of the village around the manor had, side-by-side the graves of generation upon generation of the men -junkers and villagers- who worked the same fields, lived off the same harvests and died on the same battles. Throughoud the centuries Junkers and villagers lived together on the same soil, and depended on each other for security and production. No room for marxist charicatures of class warfare, or the commercialist logic of the quick-buck at the other's expense.
From your opinions, I untersdand you either have already read traditionalists like Julius Evola, or would possibly enjoy their texts. I particularly recommend 'Men Among Ruins' and 'The Doctrine of Awakening', which are available for free download at
This was also predicted by Gerald Celente of Trends Research. Celente predicts that in 2009,
(1) Major retailers will report horrible holiday sales figures, and several will go bankrupt by February.
(2) The commercial real estate market will crash even harder after bankrupt retailers vacate their stores - there will be no one to take over the empty space
In other news, in his DVD "The Next 12 Months" Lindsey Williams indicated the lower oil price will crush the economies of the middle eastern oil-producing countries. Williams also indicated the dollar is going to be devalued in 2009, and that it will take years for the U.S. to come out of the depression.
Celente and Williams have been correct in the past (search for them in Google Video or YouTube.
lawyerliz: lawyerliz writes:
If nobody has said this, Macy's card is Visa.
Yes it's a VISA card, but from what bank? VISA doesn't lend money - it is just a marketing firm. Cards are issued by banks, credit unions, etc., only.
Macy's (Federated) may own a bank, but if so it is well hidden. I doubt Federated wanted all that debt on their books, so some entity is holding the football (deflated as it may be).
You know maybe there is something to Jas J's caste system insights. Don't know what, but it's inspiring me to think about it.
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 3:30 pm | #
lawyerliz,
Of course there is...esp. if one is believer of aristocracy as opposed to meritocracy.
Broward, are you saying people are too complacent, hence conformists, or too paranoid? Couldn't quite follow your logic
I believe the US has no foundational ethic. Like Jas, I'm a product of America's warrior class.
I realized last year that a myriad of problems in IT are ego-based. Micro-managers, perfectionists, paranoia, prima-donnas.
Ultimately, they're all about an egotistical imperfection. If you understand the structure of that, you can manipulate it. It's kind of a disease vector.
More importantly, I wouldn't cite Schneier's work on crypto to make a case against conformity
I referenced the wrong link. Schneir's more recent thought is that America is reacting with unreasoning paranoia to "what's different".
For Volker, et al, Re: GGP's locations. I was at the Oakbrook mall last week, which I believe is owned by GGP. It was as if they were trying to make it hard to shop. The parking lot was barely plowed. The walkways were covered in ice and snow. The Lord & Taylors hardly had any merchandise, and even fewer customers. Macys was full of stuff and people, but no one seemed to be buying. Brookstones seemed to have a few people buying things -- it seemed like the thought was that they will go the way of Sharper Image so if you want what they've got then get it now. Talbots, a former favorite with the women in my clan, has been a dissapointment for at least a year. In my western burb, we have a new, fancy facade strip mall called "Design Pointe" which is supposed to cater to all your home improvement desires. Well...the place is about 20% occupied, and the one time I went there mine was the only car in the whole parking lot. At a neighbor child's birthday party yesterday, I overheard a woman talking about needing to learn to grow her own veggies because things are going to be so bad next year. My husband is seriously thinking of getting me canning supplies for Christmas.
Published in 2004 by Random House, in Dark Age Ahead Jacobs argued that North American civilization showed signs of spiral of decline comparable to the collapse of the Roman empire. Her thesis focused on five pillars of our culture that we depend on to stand firm, which can be summarized as the nuclear family (but also community), education, science, representational government and taxes, and corporate and professional accountability. As the title suggests, her outlook was far more pessimistic than in her previous books. However, in the conclusion she admitted that, At a given time it is hard to tell whether forces of cultural life or death are in the ascendancy. Is suburban sprawl, with its murders of communities and wastes of land, time, and energy, a sign of decay? Or is rising interest in means of overcoming sprawl a sign of vigor and adaptability in North American culture? Arguably, either could turn out to be true.
Sometimes I think that aristocracies, whether of war or whatever have the virtue of allowing people to have more self confidence than they otherwise would have resulting in some successes that might not have happened otherwise.
As to religion, the sight of the Cathoic Church, back when it actually had power, was not a pretty sight.
I understand that Asoka (sp?)and the Buddha were a pretty nifty combination.
The difference between yields on U.S. two- and 10-year Treasury notes will shrink further amid efforts to boost the economy and concern that deflation is looming, according to UBS Securities LLC.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows that a flattening of the difference, the so-called yield curve, after it peaked Nov. 13 at 2.62 percentage points is far from over, William O Donnell, a UBS strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a research note today.
Technical analysis, in which charts of trading patterns and prices of securities are studied to forecast changes, does suggest that there is more flattening to come in the curve as we tip into 2009, ODonnell wrote. There is a strong hint that were in the middle phases of a major curve flattening, he wrote.
Of course there is...esp. if one is believer of aristocracy as opposed to meritocracy.
poster formerly known as nitpi | 12.21.08 - 3:32 pm |
Nitpi, aristocracy is not the logical counterpart of meritocracy. Except for france after the Revolution and Britain, European nobility has been broadly accessible to commoners who showed valour, knowledge, and personal worth.
What you see as the 'American meritocracy' is, in fact, what Aristotle considered the degenerated for of Aristocratic rule, that is, oligharchy. I would rather call it kakistocracy.
"Sometimes I think that aristocracies, whether of war or whatever have the virtue of allowing people to have more self confidence than they otherwise would have resulting in some successes that might not have happened otherwise."
Don't you find that rather sad? And upon reflection, rather defeating the concept of "aristocracy", that intrinsic "worth" would be based on lineage instead of accomplishment?
I liked the reference to "wave of mutilation" by the pixies further up the thread. Cool song, businessmen commiting suicide while taking the innocent with them is a good analogy for this period in time.
As far as these comments have descended into philosophy sometimes veiled as psychology it's clear that this crisis is a combination of "ignorace is bliss" plus "something for nothing". I can excuse ignorance from those without access to education and information but this was ignorance by choice which is borderline criminal. It's very clear we need some good leadership, someone who would be putting their life on the line to break the spell of something for nothing culture/business/society. We have a few generations of citizens (when will the government stop calling us consumers?) who have been re-educated in complete mislogic. It's disturbing that the basic rules or logic are not remotely understood by the majority of people. And those who are in positions of power and influence choose not to use it even though they clearly understand it. They promise something for nothing and now people are asking for their something they are getting nothing in return. Ok, next post will be on topic.
--
Of course there is...esp. if one is believer of aristocracy as opposed to meritocracy.
poster formerly known as nitpi,
As if aristocracy was not based on merit! Merit to defraud, manipulate and mislead?! Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC) used merit to get ahead?
Amazing prejudice against other systems of the past. Regrettably, it is systematically BRED in America.
By the way Jane Jacobs also mentioned the "monstrous hybrid" that can result from mixing alien value systems into areas of life that work best with their original value system. For example mixing commercial attitudes with government functions. \t Aristophon | \t \t \t \t12.21.08 - 2:50 pm | #
Broward - would this fall into your contention of (paraphrasing here) a common vocabulary required to maintain polity?
Amazing prejudice against other systems of the past Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 3:46 pm | #
It's a flaw of human nature to declare "we know more now than we ever have" and then use that as proof that past systems are unworthy. Not seeing the absurdity of the statement and writing off the past just keeps us running in slowly expanding circles century after century. I'm sure we could shoot of on a tangent if we didn't believe we were so exceptional, merely lucky. It's causing us to squander our luck for another round of who can piss higher up the wall.
many years ago when I was in business school I was asked by an old and very wealthy family friend what I planned to specialize in. I told him labor relations. His response "son do finance you can always hire somebody to manage your labor but you can't hire somebody to manage your money"
I took his advice and I think others would be well advised to do so themselves.
No doubt that going back to the "starting point" of whatever lineage one picks, merit was the source of the awarding of station. Too often (usually?), though, as time goes on, the offspring are no better (and often worse) than their alleged "inferiors".
I'd guess the majority of posters on this site are over 40. The age factor in how you view the changes taking place is the primary reason for the fear and criticisms displayed.
Remember back to when you were under 30. All the possibilities, all the future paths to be walked. The under 30 crowd is where change always happens. The under 30 crowd WANTS change, needs change and will bring change. 20 years from now they will be the leadership of whatever form this country takes.
All of us over 40's are victims of the changes. We also are victims of our age and ability to adapt. I'm trying to embrace what is coming with as many prudent preparations I can. I refuse to go into bunker mode and I will persevere to support the younger citizens when they inevitably take action. I'd suggest supporting the civil disobedience and show the future leaders how a multi-generational movement is the middle path to sustainable stability.
Don't you find that rather sad? And upon reflection, rather defeating the concept of "aristocracy", that intrinsic "worth" would be based on lineage instead of accomplishment? poster formerly known as nitpi | 12.21.08 - 3:44 pm | #
Not really. It sets a benchmark: "Can I meet or exceed my ancestor's acheivements?" combined with the responsibilty not to disgrace the family name and dishonor the ancestors.
Gerald Celente of Trends Research I think what is even more striking is things that he didn't predict that happened.
MP3 players, blackberries the internet $147 oil.
It didn't take genius to figure out that sales were going to be lousy this Xmas. Now if he was able to predict the year that we would get out of this mess that would be something- you say we will not come out of it for years BFD.
As to offspring there is something in IQ studies called "regression toward the mean", ie, kids have, on average lower IQs than their high IQ parents. Likewise low IQ'ed parents have smarter kids than one would predict.
Also people who blank out Jas, I can certainly understand it, but his insights are so off the wall that sometimes they do inspire thought.
When he is in an especially dope mongering mood, you can ignore him.
As to rolls in the hay, gosh, what about droit du (de?) seignor?
Nitpi, there are exceptions of course. Revolutionary dictators like Napoleon and Stalin create their own oligarchy based on cronyism and ideological correctness. A true aristocracy of valour must be based on the possibility of competitively climb the social ladder, otherwise it declines and finally dies.
To function however, aristocratic rule must grow organically in multi-generational tradition. When families rise and fall in the course of centuries, the game will be played strategically, and not under the pressures of short-term tactics. Tradition and reputation become become the most useful capital to be passed to the next generation.
The destruction of many traditional social institutions through war or revolution equals inexorably to an irreversible destruction of social capital.
I think some of the big box retailers will down size with 2-3 separate business under one roof (they will have plenty of buildings) like many fast foods have. I also think they will franchise smaller towns with stores similar to A SEARS catalog store like where I live. Store is about 4000sqf popular items stocked and one day store delivery from the nearest city. Look back at they way business was done for tomorrows growth potential.
I saw the trailer to Doubt and while I have no doubt it is fabulous, I don't want to see it. Don't want to know the secret life of priests and nuns. Didn't like the non-secret part. Been there, done that.
The sons of the monarch of England are Dukes, but regardless, any of the nobility can marry royalty, and assume higher titles. It's only when you have royalty marry commoners (like Edward VIII) that they must give up the crown. NB, he still retained his dukedom; he ws still the Duke of Windsor.
Paris Hilton is an American Princess. I nominate her for future Queen of the Americas.
Aristocracies are based solely on wealth,land ownership,and history. They function to cement wealth and status for the ruling class. Giving a family a title is an empty gesture unless the family has the material possessions to mark them as part of the cabal.
The death tax was America's way of stopping this process from taking hold. A feudal system seems to be forming but there is a competition between Corporations and elite families. I think some sort of hybrid form from these two entities melding will become the leadership of the world.
Of course there is...esp. if one is believer of aristocracy as opposed to meritocracy.
poster formerly known as nitpi,
As if aristocracy was not based on merit! Merit to defraud, manipulate and mislead?! Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC) used merit to get ahead?
Amazing prejudice against other systems of the past. Regrettably, it is systematically BRED in America.
Jas
Jas,
nice use of smokescreen technology--what are you saying here, anyway?
I think we need a thread on PEAK GDP. We've passed it. This might be the recession that never ends (if all govts stimulate to avoid a sharp collapse) with endless qtr after qtr of negative growth).
I will always believe the Chi Pet was the first signal of the downfall of the US society. Bob | 12.21.08 - 4:08 pm | #
Whereas the Pet Rock was a sign of our strength as a nation. Unfortunately, "Paper" covers "Rock" so we're in the unhappy position of waiting for the "Scissors of Obama"?
Don't forget force when speaking of aristocracies. Those 1066 Norman aristocrats would have never taken over due to merit!!!! It was force.
And isn't it a truism that the aristocrat in need of cash marries the son or daughter of a wealthy merchant who wants the title? At least in fiction and I think in reality too.
Wasn't it that the commoner in question was divorced the big problem actually?
And isn't it a truism that the aristocrat in need of cash marries the son or daughter of a wealthy merchant who wants the title? At least in fiction and I think in reality too. lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 4:12 pm | #
I believe Lord Louis Mountbatten married the daughter of his banker.
Just an annecdote about retailing in Jonesboro, AR. The last week an ice/snowstorm hit and hardly any retailers/strip malls tooks steps to clear the accumulation on their lots or sidewalks. In years past that had been done. I wondered if they were trying to save money this year.
Certainly the store I work at did almost nothing to make it easier for shoppers to get inside without breaking bones along the way.
Then again, The employees here realize that our corporate m,asters seem to have the attitude " We're (name witheld) We ddon't have to care."
I'd guess the majority of posters on this site are over 40. Jacked | 12.21.08 - 3:57 pm | #
Not all! There are definitely some under 30s in here as well. And I agree with you. I was much more negative six months ago before we finally started the depression. I had been waiting for the global ponzi scheme to unravel for a long time at that point. I was at a BSC subsidiary when their 2 funds imploded. I had been reading TBP for a while and caught a link to CR that day. But now we are here it's much easier to focus on the way out since more people are willing to listen.
"her sense is that there's an increase in the on-line etail with in store pick-up to avoid shipping charges
this would lend itself to shed light on the notion that people are going to the mall, buying for a list and not hanging around very long
why should they, go quickly, do not look at the displays, do not stop at the clearance racks, just go, go home
Comrade Volker the Viking | 12.21.08 - 2:59 pm | # [kill]"
Excellent information, thank you. I'm wondering if we'll see the return of the Sears/Monkey Ward catalog stores. They were >5000 square-foot stores that had a certain amount of merchandise, but mainly existed for catalog ordering and pickup.
It could be a good future model for general merchandise businesses: a limited selection of popular items combined with receiving facilities for items purchased from the company's much more extensive online catalog.
The advantage: a hands-on showroom for online purchases, and a brick-and-mortar place to return online purchases instead of having to ship it all back.
Zavvi used to be virgin records, all of the high street expenses, none of the goodwill.
The UK would be looking at a situation an order of magnitude worse than the US except a massive devaluation of the pound is what they've needed even before Thatcher.
Last night of the Spain excursion; Valencia is soft, but not as bad as I expecte; madrid, Barcelona , Bilbao going as if nothing happened. Anecdotal info supports belief that major payne is camped out along the southern coast and a big chunk of it is related to UK implosion.
I need to do some more demographic research, but there may be some lifetime opportunities forming in RE.
Excellent information, thank you. I'm wondering if we'll see the return of the Sears/Monkey Ward catalog stores. They were >5000 square-foot stores that had a certain amount of merchandise, but mainly existed for catalog ordering and pickup.
Sounds like Service Merchandise. Do they still exist?
Funny thing, I'm starting to see "lay away" programs coming back. Our family always used to do that when I was growing up.
In regard to Madoff flight risk, is it possible to jump bail and just disappear?
Yes.
In 1974 I was a newspaper reporter in Tampa, Fl, covering the trial of a boat captain turned Columbian drug smuggler named Raymond Grady Stansell, Jr. He had moved so much money offshore that the judge said he surely would flee. But Florida law required bail, so the judge set it at $10 million.
A week before his trial, his attorney showed up for a hearing and said Raymond Grady had drowned while scuba diving in Honduras. The judge asked where the body was, and the attorney said: "It hasn't been found."
It hasn't since.
The $10 million helped Hillsborough County's budget quite a bit.
Jeeez, Jas Jain shows some insight and humility and people jump on him? Where's the Christman spirit?
Lawyer Liz - swallow your fears and go see Doubt. It's a great story about the dangers of moral and intellectual certainty. (No, it's not about the Bush Presidency.)
The advantage: a hands-on showroom for online purchases, and a brick-and-mortar place to return online purchases instead of having to ship it all back.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 4:25 pm | #
The catalog stores of Montgomery Wards, Sears, and JC Penneys was a successful business plan for many years. The adjustments you noted might bring back that model. Interesting.
Too late for MW and most likely too late for Sears and JCP.
It could be a good future model for general merchandise businesses: a limited selection of popular items combined with receiving facilities for items purchased from the company's much more extensive online catalog.
The advantage: a hands-on showroom for online purchases, and a brick-and-mortar place to return online purchases instead of having to ship it all back.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 4:25 pm | #
Thanks for the come back, good buddy.
I would hesitate to get ahead of the situation. This could take years to play out.
All the others that came back, thanks as well. Truly, something doesn't add up. We, as astute market watchers, may be able to decipher the clues.
It all indicates a return to local people trading between themselves.
In terms of what's different about this recession, we did not have mass retail chains bankruptcies in prior recessions, even in the 80's. There have been a lot of retail bankruptcies over the years but they haven't been very strongly tied to the business cycle. It's been more of a secular shift from downtown/walkable/mom and pop/small chains to big chain stores and auto malls.
Now the retail models that have been wiping everybody else out for the past 30 years are suddenly facing mass bankruptcies on an unprecedented scale. It's quite a shock.
--
A feudal system seems to be forming but there is a competition between Corporations and elite families. I think some sort of hybrid form from these two entities melding will become the leadership of the world.
Jacked,
Wealthy families have been around for at least 100 years in America and their influence relative to professional managers, corporate as well as those appointed to very powerful positions, and not to neglect the experts, e.g., economists, has been in steady decline.
Who have more power on Americans lives, the wealthy families of the past or the economists and policymakers, including those on the Federal Reserve?
I have very low opinion of my relatives in India, most of whom are businessmen and some of whom are rich. And they are "practicing" Jains no better than practicing Christians in America! Beware of labels!
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 3:15 pm | #
But the Jain temple in Calcutta is a very cool place, with the possible exception of the Victoria Memorial, the most impressive building in the city.
FDR was 51 when he took office, Churchill was 66 when he became PM in 1940. FDR was sufficiently optimistic that he seems to have managed to make millions of Americans feel things in the US could get better. He was known for being willing to try all sorts of projects & ideas to get people working again. Some of them didn't work, but that didn't seem to stop or discourage him. His wife, Eleanor (also over 40, I believe, while FDR was in office) was way more radical than he was & constantly pushed him to do more in the area of civil rights for blacks, for women, etc. I think she became something at the UN when she was in her 60's.
WSC was known for his ability to screw up & still come back & try again (& he'd screwed up big time when he was younger). Despite his age, he too was able to give hope to his constituency. And try out new ideas (he was in favor of utilizing planes, etc., for war purposes, long before others in the UK gov't were, for example).
Some of the most rigid & cautious people I've met/worked with, are adolescents--because some of them are so afraid of "looking bad" or doing something their peers don't. I've heard at least one AP sciences teacher say the same: "just tell me what's gonna be on the test & don't bother me with anything else."
Sometimes becoming older frees people from the need to care about what other people think or do. See some of Carl Jung's work regarding midlife changes (not that I agree w/all Jung says)
[Spatch writes:
Paulson's worst Nightmare ... consumers who refuse to spend ]
Yes -- Keynes' "Paradox of Thrift". It might be slightly exaggerated because of negative wage gains over the past 10yrs. Maybe the 21st century version is "Necessity of Thrift"
Hi. Just a few rambling attempts to respond to one of your posts above. Bear with me, still working through this myself and these ideas are floating around. I figure if I talk about them and type about them enough it will help me figure them out. (earlier me and pavel were discussing this topic too.)
My issue with what you said above is about waiting for leadership, a leader that can see clearly enough and is committed enough to be willing to die to show the error etc. I say bah.
Waiting for the leader to show is a very big part of what we bamboozled ourselves with. It helped our civilization lie internally and let this crap happen.
I bet there were plenty of people (and I am snarling at myself here too) that saw things happening and never made a peep, since "if it was soooo bad a leader would show up and um, lead" or speak out, or protest.
One of my personal moments that shame me is the first time I realized that american citizens were no longer being called citizens, but american consumers. I didnt protest, write, yell, bitch, nada. Just looked around, saw the numbness, and went on.
That is where waiting for leadership gets you. into the numb even faster.
Now i dont wait for a leader or a better smarter more able person. I just do my little part. (little person, little steps)
I correct people when they use that word,when i hear it on the news or in reports i strongly call horsepuckey on it and explain to whoever is around me why i think it is horrid etc, even if it is just my 8 yr old son.
What I am trying to say in my rambling way is that it comes from inside. Even if it is small things, or if it is huge things, dont wait for someone else to notice, identify and correct.
azurite:said "Some of the most rigid & cautious people"
Wasn't it widely said that that after the Second World War it was the oldest generation (the grandfathers, so to speak) that provided the leadership to rebuild the economically --and intellectually -- devastated Europe?
There was such great intellectual and moral bankruptcy exposed by that war that new ways of looking at things had to come from those who had little leadership during the time that led to the disaster.
"Sometimes becoming older frees people from the need to care about what other people think or do. See some of Carl Jung's work regarding midlife changes (not that I agree w/all Jung says)"
This is true to a great extent, given growth into maturity.
I'll be 70 next month, and while in some ways I feel freer, in other ways, in certain circumstances, I also see the virtue in keeping one's counsel. Mouthing off can be a way of showing off, which is the essence of being expensively juvenile.
Had one of those Sears Catalog Stores for 21 years.
It was a wonderful life. Small town America, Sears word truly meant something at that time, but Alas the top become liar's and greed overcome a great model that had worked for many years.
Tech: And You Think Q4's Going to Be Bad? - Barron's If you are thinking the first quarter looks bad, wait until you see the rest of the year - particularly for chip stocks. Analyst Mark Lipacis sees earnings for the semiconductor firms in his universe down a startling 78% vs. the Street's -27%.
Other companies in peril: Palm (PALM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Motorola (MOT), Sirius XM Radio (SIRI).
Many retailers will fail... but I think most here have it wrong. The mom and pop businesses are by far struggling the most. I see a mass "die off" for off mall competition. The big box and department stores will shrink in size but in the end the locations they keep (they still have many that are highly profitable) could be stronger due to less competition.
--
"Jas, just to illustrate the martial ethics of duty to the state of a Junker family, this is a memorial of the young men fallen in combat during WWII."
Twilight of the Gods,
Thanks again. I don't understand German language but the photos convey most of the meaning.
Junkers were of far superior ability and ethics, including hard work, than BFNYC, "raised in a culture of fraud." But, since BFNYC and their agents are Americans' leaders (and they control Americans money and wealth!) they must be better. Fatal conceit!
The plain fact is that Americans simply dont know what to do about their bad leaders. So much for the best system claim. A BAD SYSTEM ELEVATES BAD PEOPLE TO THE TOP!
Sounds like Service Merchandise. Do they still exist?
Funny thing, I'm starting to see "lay away" programs coming back. Our family always used to do that when I was growing up. Bob | 12.21.08 - 4:28 pm | #
I think you'll see a return of stores which sell products rather than image. Hopefully we'll see the return of a culture that provides product rather than image.
Excellent points when viewed from that period of time and leadership. I also agree with your assertion that the older you get the less you care about perception.
I believe we are facing the worst economic collapse and social collapse ever witnessed. Huge urban populations, consolidation of assets, concentration of food production, dependency on very fragile infrastructures, and loss of confidence. The stage has been set and when the cracks lead to collapse it will be the under 30 demographic who will either become the roving bands of destruction or the marchers bringing change. Flip a coin.
The older you get the more you have to lose and protect. I believe there is very little salvageable from the set of circumstances that have been engineered/supported. I want the advantages of youth to be channeled towards productive change and not destruction. Understanding the change will come from their actions and then supporting the behavior that is geared towards accountability and support for the citizens is crucial.
Tracking Greece closely. The young student "anarchists" are lighting fires that will result in either a brutal crackdown or collapse of the society that maintains a semblance of functional operations. If there were large coordinated marches from all ages then the government would be forced to negotiate and compromise. The either or choice being demonstrated is the trap all societies must avoid.
...american citizens were no longer being called citizens, but american consumers. I didnt protest, write, yell, bitch, nada. Just looked around, saw the numbness, and went on.
its been said many times, and bears repeating- even shouting.
i think this, more than anything is the root of it. con men will con, and suckers will...suck?
"Severtson said the dealership had been planning the crush-fest for a while. But he said it was a happy coincidence President Bush approved a bailout for U.S. automakers as the weekend arrived."We'd like to send the message that the best way to support your country is to buy an American vehicle today," Severtson said."
Whew, Markit will be pushing back their creation of a public index to track AAA MBS till 2009 after consultations with market participants. Can't have transparency until the resets have occured and prime MBS sludge has been pushed onto the taxpayer.
I was a bit worried there that transparency of the market was coming.
Well, I planted a cute little yellow plum tomato plant and an eggplant today.
Does that count?
I dunno pissed, doesn't everyone pretty much know that mtg securities are toast? Those that don't know, won't care to know the details of just how horrible they are.
I think you'll see a return of stores which sell products rather than image. Hopefully we'll see the return of a culture that provides product rather than image.
heads up isaac | 12.21.08 - 4:57 pm | #
And you'll know the person you're dealing with because you're looking them in the eye.
Feckless: Hi. Was testing the refrigerator blog door theory again -- does conversation continue even when you don't post?
It feels like we're all blind villagers walking around the carcass of a dead elephant, sniffing here and there and getting different impressions depending on where we sniff. It's a monkey... no, it's a chicken, etc.
We're still devouring each new bit of carrion and trying to figure out how to shift our shekels around to minimize the damage. CR, there have been a lot of stray good ideas that have hit the blog over the last couple of years, but nothing seems to have stuck. Can you dedicate a persistent thread to ideas about the steps we need to take (and I guess this means defining "we" very clearly) going forward. Something like a weeklong brainstorming session where we can aggregate ideas. From there, one more thread that identifies the best of them, which might even suggest a workable plan?
Do even 10% of the population know what MBS are?
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 5:16 pm | #
No, but they understand job loss and hunger. Blame assessment is also big with the masses. Watching attempts of channeling that currently. Division among Americans has been carefully supported for decades.
--
"But the Jain temple in Calcutta is a very cool place, with the possible exception of the Victoria Memorial, the most impressive building in the city."
Dirk,
There are many very beautiful Jain temples including one in my birth-state of Rajasthan.
Wealth does not mean piety! Many of my pious relatives, I mean those who peddle piety, are not very good human beings. Long time ago there were many Jain scholars but pursuit of money destroyed scholarship. Nowhere better seen than in NYC where scholarship is on sale and in most cases sold to the highest bidder.
What I am trying to say in my rambling way is that it comes from inside. Even if it is small things, or if it is huge things, dont wait for someone else to notice, identify and correct. rsj | 12.21.08 - 4:48 pm | #
This site helped me to be my "own leader". I had concrete information to write letters to my representative, senators and state rep. and helped friends and family do the same. But the dismissive stock replies left a bitter taste in my mouth. I advised family on their financial matters and tried to portray the criminality of those in power. It's a slow process but reality pushed everyone in the past year more than any amount of talking has.
But we need more, I need to do more. I have considered local politics but I believe that "change" comes too slowly from that avenue. This isn't a moment where the pendulum starts retracing its path. The pendulum was corrupted and doesn't measure time appropriately anymore. I knew what to do when it was "small" things. Now I'm a bit lost, but even more motivated.
Feckless: Hi. Was testing the refrigerator blog door theory again -- does conversation continue even when you don't post? Uncle Billy Snorts | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 5:18 pm | #
Conversation goes on with the door closed, but it's brighter with the light on and the door open.
rich, great story. You must remember then, a few years later when 'Snow Blind' (the paperback) swept through our '70's culture. For sure Madoff has many offshore accounts, scattered here and there. I bet he disappears. For one thing, obviously he knows where many bodies are buried otherwise, he would not be enjoying his current leverage. The question is not can he flee, but rather will he flee. I say he will flee. Ecuador comes to mind....living an alias life... well guarded.
CR has carefully cultivated his neutrality. Taking a small step to allow something constructive going forward would change his position but the time to get off the fence has come.
Or maybe not. Each person must make their own choices. Either way I'm grateful for the blog and comment section.
Regarding aristocracy, Arnold Schwarzenegger's marriage to a Kennedy is a prime example of a marriage of mutual convenience. Arnold had fame, money and a certain popularity. Ms. Kennedy had the neo-aristocratic bloodline and the accompanying power network. Both parties benefit, as Arnold gets validation as an American aristocrat and Kennedys extend the reach of their domain to the west coast. The current theater taking place regarding the possible appointment of Caroline Kennedy to Clinton's Senate seat is a powerful indicator that monarchism/aristocracy holds a lot of appeal for the American masses. Personally I think it is a travesty that she is even being considered.
Jas - I planned to spend Y2K out of Jaisalmer on a Y2K-compliant camel but the security wienies persuaded the higher-ups that it was too risky, and I would have to cut time short and head to an OECD country for the zero hour (ie one with systemic risk of banking system breakdown if the worst occurred).
Just surreal.
Still had some memorable days in Jaisalmer, including dinner on the outer wall listening to the fighter jets take off to sortie at the border.
Camel driver tried to nick my traveling buddy's wallet.
I dunno pissed, doesn't everyone pretty much know that mtg securities are toast? Those that don't know, won't care to know the details of just how horrible they are.
Do even 10% of the population know what MBS are?"
Yes this is very important. Trust will only come back into the system with transparency. This is an indication that we are nowhere near the end of this quagmire.
As long as market participants are not forced to mark their holdings to market trust will not re-appear.
The Markit ABX sub-prime indexes were a prime driver behind the write-downs we have seen.
As long as there are no available market inputs most financial companies can move their MBS to level 3 and value them at whatever model they choose.
I dunno. I always wondered why small scale crooks the hub prosecuted didn't flee. Mostly they didn't. They had no end game planned out.
Someone posted a link showing M's French Villa--or at least the entrance. Suffice it to say chez lawyerliz doesn't have an entrance feature like that.
Now without that 7 bill that people wanted back the scheme could have gone on for years.
Why didn't he get rid of such highly visible assets and hide them when he could?
Nobody suspected, and nobody will. So Bernie is selling his French villa. Gosh, he doesn't spend any time there anyway, he's too busy watching my investments.
I don't think he actually has an end game planned out.
If I were running a scheme like that, I couldn't enjoy my ill gotten gains.
I really would like to get in the head of somebody like that.
Jacked, a dedicated thread wouldn't preclude him from neutrality.
Uncle Billy Snorts | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 5:32 pm | #
Sure it would. By giving a forum to voice solutions you have to identify the problems. The problems are firmly based on policy, laws, lack of oversight and accountability of our businesses and legislators. Proposing solutions identify the sources of those problems. Problematic for the people running things when it all failed.
Jas, Have not made it to Rajastan, but hope to on one of my future trips, mostly go to Calcutta (Zacks offices there), but have made side trips to Shilong in Assam, Delhi/Agra and Vishnupur. Understand Rajastan is awesome. Really enjoyed Agra, not just the Taj, but esp Fetpur Sekri (sp?). The trip to Shilong was super cool as well, sort of like going to Shangra-la.
For my money, good art and archetecture are just about the only positives to come from any religion.
Kondratieff canuk writes:
rich, great story. You must remember then, a few years later when 'Snow Blind' (the paperback) swept through our '70's culture.
Thanks for reminding me. I'm going to order that book.
One problem Madoff has is that he could be vulnerable in prison. He has infuriated a lot of rich people, and they have ways of getting money to the families of incarcerated people, in return for a little shiv action here and there.
The guards, too, can be persuaded with a little cash not to listen to screams at night too much.
If you are in prison serving a long sentence without chance of parole, hey, you still gotta do what you can to support your family.
Now without that 7 bill that people wanted back the scheme could have gone on for years.
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 5:34 pm | #
This is the 800lb gorilla sitting in a corner on the trading floor. How much did other funds see? I suspect herd mentality at work and all the funds saw requests in the 20-50% range. It is now a matter of who blinks first before the crush at the exits.
Jacked. It's a shame. Take all the energy and quality of thought that's devoted to analyzing and predicting and snarking here and put it into building something.
"Now without that 7 bill that people wanted back the scheme could have gone on for years.
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 5:34 pm | #
This is the 800lb gorilla sitting in a corner on the trading floor. How much did other funds see? I suspect herd mentality at work and all the funds saw requests in the 20-50% range. It is now a matter of who blinks first before the crush at the exits. "
A lot of the big money put into Madoff was fund of fund money, basically a hedge fund that takes in money and invests it in other hedge funds. There could be a very nasty bout of cascading hedge fund redemptions.
lawyerliz writes: ..I don't think he actually has an end game planned out.
I asked myself the same question...do i think he planned a backdoor. My bet is he did. The properties, like the french villa were also props, part of the con. He basically washed 30 to 40 billion by recycling it into the burn. Very hard to believe he wasn't salting cash away in a safe haven, knowing that one day it was going to blow up. It was inevitable.
The guy is leveraging something right now in order to be on the street. He's acting like a man with a plan. It would NOT have been fatherly to skip out in advance of the destruction; his sons would have swung for it. Now he can take the blame - and take a powder and disappear too.
LOL. BTW, I was in Jaisalmer the morning after India's test of the nuke bomb on a Rajput friend's (village lords, a lower ranks of aristocracy) wedding. The food was awesome. Man, has the area changed since due to tourism.
I often wonder as I read someones thoughtful comment what if any effort they are putting into bettering their community. I wonder what could be accomplished, by what is evidently a bright light in the darkness, if they could influence their surroundings positively. Hours spent typing and surfing is hours wasted in a sense.
If he were that smart, he'd have a place for the family too, AND he would have foreseen the redemption problem, which after all, had started to happen a while ago.
As I said, the small scale guys just don't seem to understand that it's all gonna end. I think this could be true of him too.
If Paulson isn't so smart after all, why should Madoff be?
So you think there are a lot of schemes, dawg? lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 5:43 pm | #
Having my larcenous streak under control I can only tell you that big criminals don't have modest exit strategies because they start believing their own lies.
No, I don't think there is too much in the way of ponzi schemes or other such outright fraud but I traded futures for a short while. There isn't even any question that pennies are skimmed, market transactions are conducted at disadvantageous ticks, advisors push sides of the trade to cover ttheir own butts, etc. There's a culture of graft in the entire financial pyramid. That $600b annually is decanted from the volume of market transactions is why the entire system is collapsing. Worse so far all the answers have been to preserve that very system. Thus the $1.6b in bonuses because that's the way it's done.
--
There cannot be a prosperous state without de facto aristocratic families. And what about an empire? Impossible. In any ongoing empire many new aristocratic families arise and some old ones are dethroned or made irrelevant.
How many Kennedys (Joe's descendents) have served jail time?
Americans are masters of denial. American People love to be lied to! And our aspiring leaders know this open secret.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins(Excellent) writes: \tlawyerliz(Excellent) writes: We are building something. This blog is a great art work.
I agree. It will be a domesday book of its era for future anthropologists. \t Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | \t \t \tHomepage | \t12.21.08 - 5:47 pm | # Presumes a power source and a secure and navigable storage entity. If it goes Mad Max.... not so much.
OTOH, I look at the blog like performance art, real-life theatre, with actors entering the fray and occasionally leaving it. Some great - Tanta - others of the near nobility - CSC, EHP - with villains re-appearing from time to time.
Our gracious creator, CR, has slowly slipped into the background after each post. Looking at early posts, he was quite visible in the comment section. Now, rarely. The cacaphony is difficult to breach, like the din at intermission.
A new art form, replete with humor, pathos, vitriol, and charm.
This is the 800lb gorilla sitting in a corner on the trading floor. How much did other funds see? I suspect herd mentality at work and all the funds saw requests in the 20-50% range. It is now a matter of who blinks first before the crush at the exits. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 5:41 pm | #
I was amusing myself looking through the SEC filings for the fund I used to work for.
Their 2008Q3 report of long positions showed a 32% drop in long positions from Q2. Now, they're a long/short fund, so I expect their shorts (undisclosed) went down some amount as well, but that's still a big drop.
After reading this msn article, I'd be surprised if the total amount of mischief caused by all ten of the "worst" employees amounted to 5 million dollars.
Let's see, isn't that 1/10,000th of the alleged damage Madoff says he did? And he's just one manager crook...
Exit, It would seem intelectually dishonest of me to change to a pseudoym and I think even the real world types who might see this would understand that I am not actually suggesting opening up Madoff's skull slowly with a hacksaw. (as satisfying on some level as that might be, I'm a very easy going and non violent person) Our media relations guy did get on my case a bit about calling out spicific CNBC personalities by name, and he does have a point there, I do like to be invited to do appearances there. They dont mind if it is a general comment about "some" of the people there, but best not to spicifically call individuals idiots regardless of how silly they are sometimes.
"AP study finds $1.6B went to bailed-out bank execs'
I can't see it as anything other than criminal behavior. Particularly, by Hank Paulson who knew - fully knew and intended - that a significant part of what he begged for to 'ultimately help Main Street' was the exact opposite: it took from Main Street and gave to Paulson's friends. The man is dishonest a man as has held that job in this country's history - and now he'd like another few hundred billion, thank you. Most eras in history have ended with people like that being shot or hanged.
This really is the death of modern big box retail here too.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Citizen AllenM writes:
"This really is the death of modern big box retail here too."
Who is going to compete with big-box retail? They have driven the retail margins to such a low level that only online retailers with no bricks and mortar can compete. And not everything can be sold online. Although I must admit that we buy most of our groceries online and have them delivered. No charge for orders over $100, and how many food shopping exercises come in under $100 any more?
CRE is crumbling...SF Class A rates are now $3 per sq ft/month...wow!
I think this really means the death of small and mid-sized shopping centers...the Walmarts of the world will survive by selling Top Ramen and socks...
c&c,
I keep wondering what are they going to do if they manage to squeeze out most everybody else just about the time China goes civil unrest in a big way...
maybe we will get lucky and they will bring a few of those jobs back here...
Smart retailers will file for BK on Friday right after Xmas to stiff the return cycle.
This downward cycle is going to be tremendously magnified by all of the leverage Wall Street used to remove wealth from ongoing concerns.
Biden is right, this is about to get much worse, and there is no quick bandaid solution that will restore us to 2005.
Now we begin a brutal mid 30/70s style search for new things that will create employment for the huge numbers of displaced workers.
As the dollar drops, we will become even more competitive, but for right now, countries that can devalue in an orderly fashion are doing so in the race to the bottom.
The biggest problem is that they are still measuring themselves against the dollar. The Russians should have sold out their entire dollar stock and converted to euros and yen, that drop in confidence might have been enough to break the dollar.
No matter, the dollar is toast, just watch the unstoppable appreciation in the Yen. Oil is a minor problem compared to what is going on in the international terms of trade. Our bond bubble seems to be the last great bubble going.
Gotta preserve cash!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Of course, when this happens in the US it will be analyzed to death by the news sites and newspapers, adding to the fear.
CR, you are justified by past trends but the vibe I'm getting is "retail earthquake." We are talking about a toy store BK before Christmas. The anchor stores and medium box ripples will crush the niche mall occupants. If you are a small retailer you are selling for Christmas cash and running receivables up. The big boxes are likely to have rheir own troubles. They've weakened their supply chain with agressive terms and at the same time lengthened them spanning continents destroying closer capacity in the process.
C&C; That is only $0.20/sf/mo more than I pay for my apt. Maybe it's time to move to a ground flood unit on Chestnut!
I have a national tenant in one of my spaces that called a few weeks ago and was asking for rent concessions..they 200+ locations in the US and they claim to be calling all landlords for these concessions, otherwise they are going to file for bankruptcy.
They have come national real estate workout group do their dirtywork trying to strong arm us...I told them NO deal...
This really is the death of modern big box retail here too.
Yes and No.
The mid-tier (Sears, Kohls, JCP, Best Buy, Macy's) will die off. I still don't understand Kohl's. Almost everything they sell can be found cheaper at 1) online or 2) at WMT / Target. The same can be said for the other's on my list as well.
The cockroach of Walmart (and possibly Target) will survive.
*hired a (must read post before I hit publish)
a toy store BK before Christmas.
dawg, don't read too much into KB. The only malls I see KB Toys stores in anymore are areas where they cling to their bibles and guns (poor rural areas that are landfills for our white trash).
off to scout the local General Growth Property. report later if I'm not arrested for something indecent.
There are some big box stores nearby, newly built, that I see nobody parked at day after day. I'd say they are good candidates to go buh-bye.
Number one candidate is Guitar Center. Do you need a store the size of Lowe's to not sell guitars?
Lots of mixed use retail around it, with Mom and Pop stores. It's all going away, and soon I think.
Rob Dawg(Excellent) writes:
The big boxes are likely to have rheir own troubles. They've weakened their supply chain with agressive terms and at the same time lengthened them spanning continents destroying closer capacity in the process.
Very astute, how do you see this playing out?
Re-Anarchy in SF mall last night...
Some here say it's not the way to do it..As requested in previous thread, how do we bring change without it? How do you stop Paulson from getting the next 350 20 days before he is gone...Why give it to him...please help me understand..The hedge fund fed program hurts my head already...
You can protest in front of fed all day long ( I have ) but it will get you weird looks and a few honks..
This actually might be the only way to change this outcome....since were going down the path of destruction anyhow, why not shake the sheeple up a little so they can question why the anarchists are wrong...
Sex pistols..
Anarchy for the u.k its coming sometime and maybe
I give a wrong time stop a trafic line
Your future dream is a shopping scheme cos i
I wanna be anarchy !
In the city
ANTI-CHRIST
I keep wondering what are they going to do if they manage to squeeze out most everybody else just about the time China goes civil unrest in a big way...
China will turn those 78K shut down factories into a war machine. Put lots of people to work, kills a lot of people decresing the size of the labor force. We did it in WW11 doubt if they will be any different.
I knew a new thread was coming because my last thread comment was over ten lines...
It was on IMF and bonds if anyone's interested.
Is there an aggregate index for mid-range retail? Gut instinct says they're toast. I've been shopping low-end and niche/boutique; haven't been to Macy's, Kohl, Nordstrom et al for over a year.
C
is this Bidens foreign policy crisis?
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and
Pakistan
Speaking in Moscow on Tuesday, chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, General Nikolai Makarov, just about lifted the veil on the geopolitics of the Afghan war to let the world know that the Bush administration was having one last fling at the great game in Central Asia. Makarov couldn't have spoken without Kremlin clearance. Moscow seems to be flagging its frustration to Obama's camp. Makarov revealed Moscow had information to the effect that the US was pushing for new military bases in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Coincidence or not, a spate of reports has begun appearing that Russia is about to transfer the S-300 missile defense system to Iran. S-300 is one of the most advanced surface-to-air missile systems capable of intercepting 100 ballistic missiles or aircraft at once, at low and high altitudes within a range of over 150 kilometers. As long-time Pentagon advisor Dan Goure put it, "If Tehran obtained the S-300, it would be a game-changer in military thinking for tackling Iran. This is a system that scares every Western air force."
It is hard to tell exactly what is going on, but Russia and Iran seem to be bracing for a countermove in the event of the Obama administration pressing ahead with the present US policy to isolate them or cut them out from their "near abroad".
I'm ordering some Eurostar tickets in January to pick up some liquidation bargains. Combine all these BK's with the fact that Sterling is approaching parity with the Euro and it means I'm going shopping on London!
I'd be greatly happy to see the strip shopping centers that line the major roads in suburbia and the outer parts of cities all get leveled with people doing Obama WPA work - with the feds imposing the price of fairly rigid zoning standards on replacement uses. The US is REALLY UGLY in many of our cities with post-1960's strip malls, auto dealers, and what not making little economic sense and terrible eyesores. I guess that applies as well to many mini-malls as well.
Local governments let this happen in the search for a higher tax base, but at the same time gave stupid tax offsets and forgiveness periods.
Putting people to work on clearing this blight is real infrastructure building at the same time it removes the major overhang in retail supply in CRE.
The IMF suggestion is just silly. How is that supposed to happen? Every country is going to borrow massive amounts of money from the others simultaneously? Or every country is going to print enormous amounts of money simultaneously? Either way, there is going be a reality check.
My father is an independent truck driver (heavy goods driver in UK terminology), in a normal 4 or 5 months up to christmas he can expect to work as much - and perhaps more than - the legal limits.
This year, he's been getting 1, perhaps 2 days work per week.
15 national retailers going to the wall seems very, very conservative.
So how is any of this different from any other recession?
Over the past 8 yrs: Dotcom, housing, commodities...others all ending in tears. Where's the next speculative mis-allocation of capital via Wall St? It's nothing more than a system designed to fleece ordinary people of every nickel they have.
Wall St needs a complete overhaul or scrap it entirely. It has become an increasingly destructive economic force.
I know I shouldn't be this way but I love seeing the increasing amounts of gaping black maws of empty and shuttered stores beggining to litter our stip centers and malls around here (philly suburb).
My favorite one is a few miles away where there are three major sections to the stip mall. One had as an anchor a big Linen's and Things that just shuttered, the next one down has a Circuit City that has not closed yet but will next year and the next section down is anchored by a massive furniture retailer called Oskar Huber (a regional chain I believe) who has just finished liquidating after 81 years in business.
Every time I drive by I toast to what I sincerly hope is the death of the stripmall model and the end of the supersaturation of retail and commercial space.
So how is any of this different from any other recession?
Bob | 12.21.08 - 1:12 pm | #
The details are the same, but the shear volume makes this an order of magnitude different (and worse).
Bond Girl - precisely - this from end of last thread:
Counterpointer writes:
I knew the IMF was revising the numbers; got a feed out of them on Friday. Fugly. Scary.
Bond Girl - the AAA sov paper coming to market in Q1 is colossal, rollovers and new funding; ditto commercial AAA and shit-backed paper.
Who on earth is going to be on the other side of the trade? There seems to be an assumption that there's no end of liquidity sitting on the sidelines waiting to snap up AAA as if it's a fortress investment. We'll see a wave of mutilation if the confidence levels are so low that the trade says damn this game, the sidelines look like a perfect place to sit this out. A fortiori if CBs also do not trust their peers' full faith and credit backing. Ain't far off.
Long scotch.
C
Counterpointer | 12.21.08 - 12:52 pm | #
The details are the same, but the shear volume makes this an order of magnitude different (and worse).
NorkaWest | 12.21.08 - 1:18 pm | #
Some details are quite different, the degree of global synchronicity in this downturn is also different by an order of magnitude.
CRE Solution is at hand!
Violence continues in Greece as rioters firebomb buildings - Democratic Underground
.
Rob Dawg(Excellent) writes:
The big boxes are likely to have rheir own troubles. They've weakened their supply chain with agressive terms and at the same time lengthened them spanning continents destroying closer capacity in the process.
Very astute, how do you see this playing out?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 12:53 pm | #
Wow, my first "excellent", thanks. My short term view is the boxes relent and pay higher prices to suppliers to buy time to try and change their business model. Those efforts are likely to be along the lines of tighter vertical integration. They will fail. The end result we be far fewer items and far fewer or each item in a much, much smaller store backed up a rapid supply system. There are a lot of competing issues to deal with. The diesel price explosion scared a lot of retailers. Now the Dry Ship indexes are pulling tthem in an opposite direction. It will be easier for the survivors but that necssitates the disaster occuring first. Walmart, Target, Macy's can survive albiet with fewer stores. The era of saturation is gone. There will be some unobvious survivors as CRE costs plummet saving their bottom line from a top line contraction. I'd say the surface transport companies will respond and do well in the new environment.
Counterpointer: I agree. One thing I've learned the hard way is that when everyone and their dog is taking one side of a trade, the unwind is usually rapid, "shocking", and fugly.
Just remember the "Can't lose" bets of shorting financials and going long commodities last Spring. That turned out real well last Summer and Fall.
Just saw on the bottom ticker on CNN that Polaroid went Chapter 11
Just saw on the bottom ticker on CNN that Polaroid went Chapter 11
Dirk | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 1:26 pm | #
I think they filed on Friday. I suprised me. I thought that they died years ago. They never figured out how to transition away from film once digital cameras made their market obsolete. I hope Kodak survives.
So why does everybody always assume that Walmart can make it? I'm sure there margins are razor-thin and their supply chain is ridiculous. Are there any numbers to show that they are doing OK in the current environment?
Don't most of the larger retail chains have their own financing arms? If so, they are primed for a piece of the second $350B bailout next year. With the Fed easing requirements on their facilities and the precedent of giving TARP funds to the financing arms of the automakers I see a big propping up of these industries next year.
c energy- Spot on....40-1 leverage worldwide is really mindbending when you compare gdp of first depression indonesia, India, china etc etc etc..
Mr T..Ditto...many memories as kid of leaving LA cty, 3:00 AM heading to Baja Our vacation or nature took over after Irvine, orange groves, vines and scrub in IE before Mojave, camping in Oneill park in the middle of Ladera Ranch, vail lake when temecula was nothing...close but far
now all that beautiful land is filled with empty boxes and tears....
YouTube - "Crying Indian" - anti-pollution TV spot
bring on simple living....
"Every time I drive by I toast to what I sincerly hope is the death of the stripmall model and the end of the supersaturation of retail and commercial space.
Mr. T. | 12.21.08 - 1:18 pm | # [kill][hide comment]"
If it's really true that the U.S. has several times the retail space per capita of most other developed countries... you may get your wish.
Me personally... I want to see the flea markets and farmer's markets move back into the center of town. That was the one thing I loved about Asia.
Bring back market day
"I hope Kodak survives."
NorkaWest
It will take more than hope. Kodak also bungled the transition to digital, and I haven't seen anything that gives me hope for the company as it currently is structured. All they really have at this point is an enormous patent portfolio.
Don't most of the larger retail chains have their own financing arms?
I believe many retailers got out of having to finance their own credit cards by facelifts of Wall Street Bank cards. Example: Amazon's credit card is JPM/Chase. You can't tell who you owe to until you get your bill. Those that haven't gotten out, will surely be forced to by non-existent lending to financial subsidiaries and no market for equities. I think Macy's card is also outsourced, but their card still gets a Macy's-label bill.
cd: I remember going to swim meets near Orlando, looking at row upon row of orange groves, and smelling the blossoms.
Then Disney came.
Dirk writes:
Just saw on the bottom ticker on CNN that Polaroid went Chapter 11
Tom Petters took them down in a ponzi scheme.. He was a small potato compared to Madoff, he only fleeced investors out of a couple billion....
He is resting in his jail cell now.
Bob writes:
So how is any of this different from any other recession?
#
1) This one is now.
2) Those were then.
3) This one is systemic.
--
"I would amend to say only born and bred dopes believe in this market, they are in as well as some speculators, compulsive gamblers and plain batsh!t crazies...
citizen energyecon,
I could have told that more than ten years ago. Hell, I did.
I concluded in 1999 that Scam Lovers, at the very minimum, had to be dopes first. I used to refer to them as Investment Morons because these dopes truly do not know the definition of the term investment (they confuse speculation with investment).
I gained tremendous understanding about the American econo-political system and Americans, leaders as well as followers, during late 1990s working for "Crisco" Systems, one of the single biggest fraud operations in all of history. It wasn't hard unless one were a BBAD with belief in the general fairness of the system. All that was needed was healthy degree of skepticism of the propaganda machine and "leaders, especially, Captains of Industry (a term used by Veblen, one of my three favorite American writers/commentators).
Some of my best friends were Investment Morons and are BBAD & AD to this day. I believe that truth, as one sees, must be told without sugarcoating.
Jas
dawg, don't read too much into KB. The only malls I see KB Toys stores in anymore are areas where they cling to their bibles and guns (poor rural areas that are landfills for our white trash).
badger boy | 12.21.08 - 12:49 pm | #
Well, the ad-hominem against the demographic aside, IIRC, KB has been up against Walmart for years - they were on the brink of BK at least two of the past five years - in other words, swamped and bailing hard...before the seas picked up.
The CHarlotte Observer airs some of the history of the GoldenWest deal.
Charlotte has buzzed with rumors for a while that lower level people in Wachovia had urged the board not to accept it. It's almost a kind of SEC-like "How could you be so blind" Sort of question now.
Golden West deal doomed Wachovia in crisis - CharlotteObserver.com
--
How about Walmart.com?
Big-box e-tailer! Has shipping cost (if one picks at the store)advantage over pure e-tailers. No?
Jas
I gained tremendous understanding about the American econo-political system and Americans, leaders as well as followers, during late 1990s working for "Crisco" Systems, one of the single biggest fraud operations in all of history.
Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 1:48 pm | #
I remember seeing a photo of one of the founders riding a horse and dressed as Lady Godiva. What a flake. Harmless, but a California flake nonetheless.
I've been getting several emails a day from Toys R Us. I've never shopped there and don't have kids.
I've also been getting a bunch of various offers for a business I closed 5 years ago.
It looks like a lot of people are scraping the barrel in their unsolicited marketing efforts in order to stave off the inevitable.
I look forward to people pouring more money into SPG and other CREITs this week. Go for it kids. If you were patient you could get them in half off sales after the holidays.
Biden's comments were pretty ominous, weren't they? Along with those from the Spanish banker. And pretty much every other piece of news.
snow still coming down in upstate new york. Has been for two days. For those in retail who believe in santa and god, they must feel like those higher powers are pissed off at them.
Big-box e-tailer! Has shipping cost (if one picks at the store)advantage over pure e-tailers. No?
Cash-only customers, i.e. the underground economy.
"an increasingly destructive economic force."
The schemes require a fool on the other side of the trade. Suits selling high-tech swampland to fools managing OPM.
I conclude the root cause is greed combined with widespread economic and financial ignorance. The education issue is easier to tackle.
dawg, don't read too much into KB. The only malls I see KB Toys stores in anymore are areas where they cling to their bibles and guns (poor rural areas that are landfills for our white trash).
This isn't the first time for KB. They went TU back around... 2002 or 2003. I saw lots of stuff they had signed for, but still in the manf's warehouse, get dumped to Dollar General and various other distress outlets. With some luck, that will be repeated again this time.
One man's trash, is another man's treasure.
Also check out the comments at the bottom of the Goldenwest Christmas Special... Plenty of pissed off employees and stockholders in this town. Almost like reading CR itself!
Amazon ebay and craigslist-we can sell shit to each other for the next 20 years!! Who needs box stores when the Jonses are having their bankruptcy sale?
--
"I remember seeing a photo of one of the founders riding a horse and dressed as Lady Godiva. What a flake. Harmless, but a California flake nonetheless."
NorkaWest,
Right you are. THE REAL HARM WAS DONE BY THE HIRED HANDSTHE PROFESSIONAL MANAGERS! In the particular case, by Mor... and Cham...
WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS, THE PROFESSIONAL MANAGERS IN THE US HAVE BEEN CROOKS, OR AGENTS OF THE CROOKS. Greenspan and Bernanke rank very high on this list.
Blind faith in a system managed by crooked leaders? And these "leaders" have firm grip on power rivaling that of the Church during the 13th Century.
Forms of human institutions change but the essence remains the same!
Jas
This isn't the first time for KB. They went TU back around... 2002 or 2003. I saw lots of stuff they had signed for, but still in the manf's warehouse, get dumped to Dollar General and various other distress outlets. With some luck, that will be repeated again this time.
One man's trash, is another man's treasure.
RayOnTheFarm | 12.21.08 - 2:06 pm | #
The interesting thing is that KB Toys blames Walmart for their troubles with little blame going to the economy. It will be real interesting to see if Walmart can afford to support their supply chain, raise prices to pay for the retail war and keep growing their consumer volume. While we are at it I have never trusted Walmart's ability to consistently grow same store sales. Sounds very Madoff if you ask me.
Aldi's showed up herein Pittsburgh about 5 tears;go limited selection of off-brand items at very good price points. Some of here product is actually quite good. But don't buy the coffee unless you enjoy utter bilgewater!!
In other words, when I lose my job in two weeks, I better not try to get a job at a department store. Yay! Thanks for the heads up.
Seems the CRE guys are the exact same assholes as the FBs that refuse to lower the price of their stucco boxes. "My CRE is special and I will not lower my rates"
Here is a fact for you CRE "I'm special ASSHOLES" You were the first and only pricks to run to the banks crying VICTIM in the late 70's early 80's crash. Yes it seems you morons overpaid for CRE and cried for priciple reductions...and got them. So take your I'm not lowering my rates and shove them up your ass. You did lower your rates in that crash and you will lower your rates in this crash, or you will be underwater just like the FB's you are so fond of complaining about and running off to the TARP just like the banks you are fond of crying about.
And here is another news flash for mister I'm special CRE...if you don't lower your rates they will BK your ass and move across the street to that other so special CRE. Maybe you didn't lever up, but the guy across the street did and he needs tenets at any cost and will lower his rates to get them, even yours.
shopping north of NYC saturday, a few observations. At the BestBuy there were plenty of people, but not a soul at the flat screen tv wall-not a one. Across the street, the Hyundai and KIA dealers have closed. ChefCentral packed with born-n-breds. OfficeDepot had three cars in the lot. This was early afternoon.
Yes I spent money.
Maybe you didn't lever up, but the guy across the street did and he needs tenets at any cost and will lower his rates to get them, even yours. - calex
"Tenets." I do not think that word means what you think it means. LoL.
Copied from the comments to the Wachovia article. It says it all.
RealityCheck wrote on 12/21/2008 09:55:32 AM:
Recipe for disaster --
criminal con artists (Sandlers),
a house of fraudulent cards (Golden-Worst), and
2nd rate FUNB idiot/egotists (Thompson, Truslow, Wurtz, Jenkins, and the Wacky-covia board of directors).
The rest is history!!!
--
"Though it doesn't surprise me in the least - there is a reason that they are so wealthy, after all."
rent_to_own,
There is a reason why all the reigning monarchs in Europe during 1700s, including the Stuarts, were of German decent. The Teutonic might.
The Anglo-American shopkeepers have inferior ethics compared to the German rulers of the warrior class. Purely Moneyed-class, in general, is inferior in ethics to the warrior and the priestly classes.
Moneyed-class engages in destroying the morals of the general population! You need proof?!
That is why it is the most dangerous class of rulers for any society. The Money-class of Great Britain and US was kept in check by the power and influence of the warrior aristocracy and the priestly class until, say, 100 years ago. Now the Moneyed-class reigns above all and is unchallenged in power.
Jas
i guess its important to be optimistic in this seadon
so
im bullish
on value-village...
goodwill...
salvation army...
and im long on garage sales
please try to have a
merry Christmas and
happy Hanukkah
to all
For those who haven't seen the photos: Dead Malls of America
.
one of Germany's richest men is profiting from Trader Joe's
sounds like Trader Joe's should be Trader Johan's!
:-0
The Money-class of Great Britain and US was kept in check by the power and influence of the warrior aristocracy and the priestly class until, say, 100 years ago
You sound like Ravi Batra.
.
AP study finds $1.6B went to bailed-out bank execs
"Banks that are getting taxpayer bailouts awarded their top executives nearly $1.6 billion in salaries, bonuses, and other benefits last year, an Associated Press analysis reveals.
Benefits included cash bonuses, stock options, personal use of company jets and chauffeurs, home security, country club memberships and professional money management, the AP review of federal securities documents found.
The total amount given to nearly 600 executives would cover bailout costs for many of the 116 banks that have so far accepted tax dollars to boost their bottom lines."
..I may have to install FireFox just to get CR Companion and finally shut up Jas Jain...
badger boy writes:
don't read too much into KB. The only malls I see KB Toys stores in anymore are areas where they cling to their bibles and guns (poor rural areas that are landfills for our white trash).
The converse would be heathens that are too gutless to defend themselves, and so farm out the duty?
Just lost our KB Toys here in southern Maryand, but the customers in the mall are 90% black.
Mozo Maz(Unrated) writes:
..I may have to install FireFox just to get CR Companion and finally shut up Jas Jain...
Jas Jain? He's still around?
Signed, a CR Companion User
The interesting thing is that KB Toys blames Walmart for their troubles with little blame going to the economy. It will be real interesting to see if Walmart can afford to support their supply chain, raise prices to pay for the retail war and keep growing their consumer volume. While we are at it I have never trusted Walmart's ability to consistently grow same store sales. Sounds very Madoff if you ask me.
On a floor sq-ft basis, I think the applicable departments in an average WalMart might be comparable to average KB (trying to remember what a KB looks like, as I have none close to me). TRU on the other hand, has a much larger floor space that WM does (for departments covering the same items). A few older TRUs are small, but some of the newer ones are huge.
If TRU rolls over, I think thats the key indicator. KB doesn't surprise me. TRU is supposed to have 10% SKUs that are 'exclusives' (i.e. you can't buy them at WM). While the manufacturers are happy to sell product to WM, I think they're wary of WM being the last retailer left standing. Thats why they play nice to TRU w/r/t the exclusives.
Concerning WM... if things get really rough, they can always go back to the old 6am - 10pm hours. The current 24/7 deal doesn't cost them that much extra (how many checkout lanes do you think they have open at 3am ?). WM is very integrated as to warehousing/trucking/etc. WM going down would be an indicator of the end times.
misean
are you out there
miss ya hommie
tried your home page...will not load
hope youre ok
anyone heard from misean?
heres the last comment i recall him posting
( Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
"The FDIC is probably just following their own guidance..."
Blind leading the blind. Knuckleheads.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 11.25.08 - 7:22 pm | #
That deadmalls link is great: The worst and saddest I've seen is in Woodville, VA, not only is the mall dead, as in truly no stores open, but there's a dead fun park on the forecourt surrounded by chainlink as it silently rusts away.
C
okay- thats it.
opened a new tube of toothpaste just now. same size box as the old one. same size price as the old one. only the tube contains 1.5 oz less than the old one.
wheres that effing pitchfork
.
--
"You sound like Ravi Batra. :)"
Broward Horne,
I came to the same conclusions (in late 1980s) as Sarkar and Batra before I read about their works. I disagree with Sarkar about the power of the masses. Masses can be led into anything. Leaders, especially, their ethics, are all-important for the well being of a society.
America and India have very bad leaders NOW. I have little doubts about this. Hence, my negative view of their future over the next two decades. Nothing positive will happen until these bad leaders are systematically destroyed. No, I have no particular solution as to how. I am a critic and an observer and not an activist of any stripe.
Jas
For those of you who read this article
(posted on previous thread) about the IMF's concerns about global slowdown, did the following sentence make any sense to you?
The IMF has called for fiscal stimulus -- higher government spending and temporary tax cuts -- worth $120 trillion, or 2 percent of global annual economic output, to fill the gap caused by slumping private demand following the credit crunch.
I found this table of world GDP for reference. It seems the sum of world GDP is $64T. So if the 2% is correct, it would be a stimulus of $1.2T. I think the US will provide that easily.
mock turtle - And EHP, and the guy from Savanna, and Anak. Popeye had a fit the other night and may not be back.
Hmmm.
C
The yen will probably do well against the dollar.
But gold will probably do well against both the dollar and yen.
The value of gold doesn't change. It hasn't changed in 5000 years. Everything else changes around it.
Breaking News!
The local GGP looks a bit slower than last year about this time. Salespeople all talk about how good it's been, then add, 'Well, it's slow right now, but...'
There's a growing recognition amongst the people I encounter and speak with of just how serious this all is. This cannot be seen as a good sign, per se.
I get the sense that we're about to go tip-toeing through the tulips while being chased by the bees.
""Tenets." I do not think that word means what you think it means. LoL."
Yep, more than a few sp in that rant. I have been looking for a new biz and it is amazing the lease some clowns of the Heloc craze are stuck in. No way these idiots sell their biz and save themselves from that monthly raping when I can open up shop across the street in a newly vacant space with a lower cost. Really, it is just amazing what some of these people agreed to pay the landlord, and the landlord financed on being able to collect that monthly nut.
TRU
RayOnTheFarm | 12.21.08 - 2:34 pm | #
What is the full name of TRU?
I need to get up to speed on the lingo.
try it with toys Norka
USA = Snake oilmen 3rd world nation, no question about it anymore.
Friggin Madoff had as the main accountant firm one tiny company (with THREE PEOPLE!) in some rural village. One of workers was an old geezer (80 year old) living in Florida! And SEC did not do ANYTHING for years!
Now Madoff is out on bail and can hire his own guards and has been given HOME detention! Biggest fraud in the history and the boy is out again!
re: tiptoeing thorough tulips
walked through an officemax and big5 yesterday about 2pm. both places were empty. i could hear two salespeople talking about "how nice the first customer today was" throughout the entire OM store.
very strange feeling to have on the weekend b4 xmas in the IE
O/T
I spoke with the postman, UPS driver, and FedEx supervisor I know . They all said volume was down
by more than 10%. I look for horrible numbers for
them and the online retailers. Worse than you think.
This is coming even with all the free shipping offers
out there.
What is the full name of TRU?
Toys R Us ... If my keyboard had the backwards R, that would be a hint
While we are at it I have never trusted Walmart's ability to consistently grow same store sales.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 2:13 pm | #
I always thought that Walmart's insistence on dropping the price it paid to suppliers five percent a year was funny, after they went to Chinese manufacturers. You gotta know that the Chinese factories said, okeedokey and cut back ten percent of whatever they were putting into it. Some of the stuff looks like it wouldn't make it out of the store in one piece.
I have been looking for a new biz and it is amazing the lease some clowns of the Heloc craze are stuck in. No way these idiots sell their biz and save themselves from that monthly raping when I can open up shop across the street in a newly vacant space with a lower cost. Really, it is just amazing what some of these people agreed to pay the landlord, and the landlord financed on being able to collect that monthly nut.
calex | 12.21.08 - 2:42 pm | #
A frequent poster here asked me to check out some simple roll up small industrial/commercial space for him. The neutron CRE economy is already here in Ventura County. The owners are still in denial. They tell themselves that because they've got 2-3 clients still paying 2005 prices the 8-10 empties are worth that much too.
Now Madoff is out on bail and can hire his own guards and has been given HOME detention!
He won't be going anywhere. I bet the paparazzi are following him 24-7.
Jas,
emsnews.wordpress.com has an excellent read on CLINTON CHARITY SCAM OPERATION OPENS DONOR LIST
" Now we go on to the other level of corruption: US retired Presidents using their connections to live high off the old hog. All retired Presidents are tempted to run Presidential libraries and charities but these things are simply ways of tying up people so they dont interfere with the status quo that is destroying America..."
When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." Frederic Bastiat,
Apropos Jas Jain's comments about priestly/warrior/monied classes;
The authoress Jane Jacobs made some similiar remarks in one of her books. I find some utility to looking at things in the way Jas puts it.
By the way Jane Jacobs also mentioned the "monstrous hybrid" that can result from mixing alien value systems into areas of life that work best with their original value system. For example mixing commercial attitudes with government functions.
Toys R Us ... If my keyboard had the backwards R, that would be a hint
RayOnTheFarm | 12.21.08 - 2:48 pm | #
Thank you. I stopped tracking them when they went private in 2005. Hope that the buyout debt doesn't kill them.
I have a question about CR Companion.
I have downloaded it. But when I try to open the file to install it, I get a message that says: "Windows cannot open the file cr_companion-1.06-fx.xpi
to open this file, Windows needs to know what program created it."
What should I do? Thanks.
Just bailout the retailers and move on...
open it with FFox, rich
. I disagree with Sarkar about the power of the masses. Masses can be led into anything
I came to a similar conclusion, not based on Batra (which I read almost twenty years ago) but on empirical evidence over the past several years at various companies. A great deal of US cultural runs on subliminal lies.
Most Americans now are pliable, with no sense of honor or integrity, and project their own behavior onto others.
Cryptography: The Importance of Not Being Different
People who are paranoia are easily manipulated. Paranoia is a manifestation of ego. I suspect that most ego manifestations are handles for manipulation. Haven't tested it out the others, though, just paranoia.
Now we begin a brutal mid 30/70s style search for new things that will create employment for the huge numbers of displaced workers.
War. Easy to package, easy to advertise, great for jobs.
If only everything in life was as reliable as a war.
The good war kids go for!
War tested, mother-approved.
Nothin' says lovin' like war in the oven.
War, take me away!
(Just running "war" through the always hilarious Advertising Slogan Generator.
War Slogans from The Advertising Slogan Generator )
Now Madoff is out on bail and can hire his own guards and has been given HOME detention! Biggest fraud in the history and the boy is out again!
one_timmy | 12.21.08 - 2:46 pm | #
I'm waiting for him to flee to another country. One with no extradition treaties, or easily bribed officials. He's the definition of flight risk.
AP study finds $1.6B went to bailed-out bank execs
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Bank Executives making their $billions, is just a nail in the coffin for the "free enterprise" system mystic. Since we have had 30 years of the upper class socialism, I guess, no change will actually take place other than the recipients-everyone else...
It's about time...
THANKS!
just talked to a relative who is a working level manager for UPS
she says it's been crazy busy
she said they're sending three trucks daily to the local mall to drop of for the anchors, mostly
she didn't say how big the truck, but I took it to mean a brown step van
her sense is that there's an increase in the on-line etail with in store pick-up to avoid shipping charges
this would lend itself to shed light on the notion that people are going to the mall, buying for a list and not hanging around very long
why should they, go quickly, do not look at the displays, do not stop at the clearance racks, just go, go home
Shopping is a Feeling
YouTube -
thats good stuff mal
Cleans a Big, Big War for less than half a crown!
I suspect that most ego manifestations are handles for manipulation. Haven't tested it out the others, though, just paranoia.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 2:53 pm | #
Ahh, you mean Deimos and Phobos aren't our friendly moons of romance and desire. Amazing how the Greeks without advanced psychology managed to personify so many of our baser instincts.
He's the definition of flight risk.
Well the conditions of his home confinement included giving up his passport and forfeiting his real property.
Now, if he has fund squirreled away overseas, and in pricipally concerned about his life, perhaps could bolt to Zimbabwe or Somalia or some other lawless place.
I think he won't though. Even if he could shake off the FBI and the paparazzi, the bounty on his head from some seriously burned overseas investors should give him paude.
--
The right to remain ignorant is exercised by Americans more than any other right. And I fully respect that right. A short quote by Mencken is in order:
for democracy is grounded upon the instinct of inferior men to herd themselves in large masses, and its principal manifestation is their bitter opposition to all free thought.
There is a reason why America stopped producing Menckensthe democrats have triumphed. The free thought must be within the confines of accepted propaganda! The inferior men must protect themselves by hiding, intellectually!!
Jas
Yep, shopping is a feeling. Take the shopping away, and you've still got to fill life with meaning.
Read Chris Hedges' War is a Force That Gives Us Meaning. Damn good book.
"Banks that are getting taxpayer bailouts awarded their top executives nearly $1.6 billion in salaries, bonuses, and other benefits last year
This is a fight that supersedes any duty to taxpayer. A broken social contract, but that's ok because the social contract was always mythical. The minute they stop paying themselves these bonuses is to admit they don't have the mystical talents to deserve them.
What was most egregious was inflating shareholder value through bail outs. To Wall Streeters, the bail out was the ultimate 'deal' that mere mortals couldn't have negotiated. That Congress couldn't have anticipated Bank behavior is a lie.
A comment fron ap 1.6 billion for bank execs link above...
Throughout the ages, fights against poverty have failed as their continuity proves. Today's events shed light on the reason why: The process that is being fought reconfigures itself continuously with the blessing of an unchanging law. By pocketing $1.6B, six hundred people stretched the divide between rich and poor to such an extent that it will take poverty fighters generations before they return to the place where they are now. It is not the fault of the execs, for no one can refuse what is being handed to him lest he be called a dunderhead. The fault is in a system that fails to change with the strategies of its abusers. Capitalism is neither easy nor linear. Good capitalism has a heart, and ours today is as rude and as gauche as the time when Jesus Christ chased the money hoarders from his father's house. We need a leader of a different sort, one whose chances of being crucified are more rather than less. And I don't see one coming.
reading the comments, I think the masses/sheeple are stirring..no wonder we are seeing more links referencing civil unrest is coming..
I find Harry Frankfurt's analysis of truth, lies, and bullshit to be a useful filter for most of the data that bombards me daily.
Most of the data is bullshit; we are led by bullshit artists, and we are expected to eat the bullshit daily.
On Bullshit - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
On Bullshit is an essay by philosopher Harry Frankfurt. Originally published in the journal Raritan in 1986, the essay was republished as a separate volume in 2005 and became a nonfiction bestseller, spending twenty-seven weeks on the New York Times Best Seller list.[1]
In the essay, Frankfurt sketches a theory of bullshit, defining the concept and analyzing its applications. In particular, Frankfurt distinguishes bullshitting from lying; while the liar deliberately makes false claims, the bullshitter is simply uninterested in the truth. Bullshitters aim primarily to impress and persuade their audiences. While liars need to know the truth, the better to conceal it, the bullshitter, interested solely in advancing his own agenda, has no use for the truth. Following from this, Frankfurt claims that "bullshit is a greater enemy of the truth than lies are."
NW
Jas,
Why not just go all the way and really rub our noses in it? Mencken had German parents.
What's a republic?
Well the hub and I did our best to empty out Macy's, but I'm not sure they made any money off of us.
We got him 3 nice linen and silk shirts and some pants for $95. Tag price well over twice that. And some stocking stuffers. Using these buy X dollars, get Y dollars off coupons they sent us to get us to charge. We pay this card off every month anyway.
Clearly the sales people have been told to do ANYTHING to get stuff out of the store. One they reduced without our asking, because it had sold for less previously, then it was one cent under the get $15.00 bucks off price, so they raised it by one cent. Saw them doing this for someone else.
There was an impulse electronic buy in the men's dept. First they said we couldn't use the $15.00 off coupon, because it wasn't included, and on the fine print on the back it did say electronics not included. We looked grouchy and started to mumble about fine print (lawyers complaining about fine print!!), and the sales lady went off and in no time the manager overrode the programming in the computer and we got our money off.
Mall reasonably busy. A fair number of people carrying packages. Not enough I think to make up for previous non-shopping.
Actually we were at the mall to get my glasses straightened out because I stepped on them this morning, and didn't intend to spend any money at all.
But we were feeling particularly uninspired this year and hadn't bought our quota of Xmas (Winter Solstice) stuff, which was bumming out the hub, as he likes to spend money at Xmas.
He hates buying clothes, and almost always looks a bit shabby as a result. When I said, do you need clothes so we can use this coupon he looked like he was being punished, but was happy he found some stuff.
Bullshit takes more effort to refute than lies. A lie can be shown to be false, but the bullshitter just keeps coming up with more. Bullshitters in effect "print their own currency".
Most people just give up at some point, and go "Yeah ,yeah... whatever. Sounds like you know what you're talking about."
it is amazing the lease some clowns of the Heloc craze are stuck in
Tragegdy of the commons. They had no choice about price when they signed the lease. This is exactly why there's been a deep cultural taboo against debt.
I just finally decided that most people can't think well enough or long enough to understand that, it's far easier to put simple rules in place like the 10 Commandments and anybody that objects can figure out the reasoning for themselves.
This should be the wind-down of seventy years of debt accumulation but the Feds have shown surprising determination to keep the mythical wealth structure alive so I can't be sure.
Schumpeter's creative destruction is misleading. It's often not technology or businesses that are driver, it's the debt they carry. Look at the airlines. Pan Am is gone but Southwest carries on. Same technology, different cost sttructures from pensions.
Creative destruction is a way for the third generation to break free of the economic tyranny of the preceding two.
--
FYI...
I come from a group/caste that would be classified as Moneyed-class (my distinguished warrior ancestor, not by rank but by deed, a tiger-killer (with a sword), had to give up warrior profession after becoming a Jain).
Jains are strict vegetarians and I am the only one in the family who eats and enjoys meat, especially, beef. I am anything but a practicing Jain.
I have very low opinion of my relatives in India, most of whom are businessmen and some of whom are rich. And they are "practicing" Jains no better than practicing Christians in America! Beware of labels!
Jas
Maybe war is no longer a viable recession/depression killer. Our 'funders' (Saudi's, China, et.al) would likely cut the funding. We don't have the manufacturing capacity to be an arsenal of anything. A draft would be internally very incendiary. We can't occupy the land masses of the mideast, south asia, southeast asia, Russia and China.
I guess we could just nuke everybody and absorb whatever they would throw at us as easily as we accept massive un-and-under employment.
It would be much easier for the US to just do some asset sales: Alaska, Tejas, Arizona, NV, Utah, and SoCal (with a warning to Idaho to be nice). Maybe the gulf of Mex. states too (New Mexico is a keeper).
Or how about a merger: downsized US plus Canada, with the Queen as head of state. Revert to the original lyrics of My Country Tis of Three. LBO!
Let's be creative!
Now Madoff is out on bail and can hire his own guards and has been given HOME detention!
Federal court of NYC is famously corporate friendly. Companies will open an office in the City just to file bankruptcy there. The original order for Madoff was night curfew. He could, and did, walk the streets during the day. It's pathetic that he's not in jail right now.
Liz, last year I bought a pair of sneakers at Kohls which I thought were priced at 29. The cashier said the computer had it at 35, so I went and checked; she was right. But then she let me have them for 29, despite my protests. I still haven't gotten over that
We need pet store consolidation!!
"WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS, THE PROFESSIONAL MANAGERS IN THE US HAVE BEEN CROOKS, OR AGENTS OF THE CROOKS. Greenspan and Bernanke rank very high on this list."
Holding the requisite MBA from Harvard and associated Ivy League schools. Never forget to become a professional it is first necessary to hold the certificate. I like to consider it to be the needed hall pass for the corridors of power.
Leveraged acquisition, leveraged equity, leveraged destruction.
counterpointer
thanks for the heads up about posters who have left (or right)
yeah some people have a more difficult time getting past the disagreements... and go away
good news is there are lots of people here, ac and rob dawg come to mind, many others who one can argue with, intelligently
and they seem to not hold a grudge
i love this place
best wishes to all of you for the holidays
and please forgive me on the occasion of the errors of my ways
Some rather obvious thread music...
YouTube - The Jam - Shopping
Oh, plz.
What about George Carlyn (before his demise) as a latter day Menken?
Satire is hardly dead.
You haven't watched Colbert or Stewart recently?
And Christopher Buckley's stuff?
Madoff will go the Ken Lay route with an untimely "death" and abatement of conviction.
Kenneth Lay - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
--
"Jas, Why not just go all the way and really rub our noses in it? Mencken had German parents."
kidbuck,
Mencken was an American and so am I. We just happen to be more independent minded than the herd-mentality and degraded democrats.
As I said, I respect people's right to remain ignorant. There is nothing more I wish on this blog than for such people to block me. Go ahead, make my day!
Jas
Broward Horne writes:
"Most Americans now are pliable, with no sense of honor or integrity, and project their own behavior onto others."
and
"People who are paranoia are easily manipulated. Paranoia is a manifestation of ego."
Broward, are you saying people are too complacent, hence conformists, or too paranoid? Couldn't quite follow your logic.
More importantly, I wouldn't cite Schneier's work on crypto to make a case against conformity. The days of proprietary algorithms (and their manipulation) are better left behind us.
Ahh, you mean Deimos and Phobos aren't our friendly moons of romance and desire
I suppose it depends on your partner(s).
I'm planning for an awesome Christmas-NYE week.
If nobody has said this, Macy's card is Visa.
Satire is hardly dead.
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 3:21 pm | #
And judging by Broward's comments, neither are satyrs.
People have long memories :
Assessing the Bush Presidency Legacy: The Measure of the Man and His Administration
Assessing the Bush Presidency Legacy: The Measure of the Man and His Administration :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
Don't you worry, Jas. This Depression is going to be one helluva unrelenting teacher for anybody too arrogant or too stupid or both.
--
"Oh, plz. What about George Carlyn (before his demise) as a latter day Menken? Satire is hardly dead. You haven't watched Colbert or Stewart recently? And Christopher Buckley's stuff?"
lawyerliz,
Was it directed at my comments? Comparing third-rate sh*theads to Mencken? But, beauty (or talent) is in the eyes of the beholder.
America produces lot of cheap intellectual content. And most of the world has followed America's lead in mass-marketing trash, material as well as intellectual.
Sorry,
Jas
You know maybe there is something to Jas J's caste system insights. Don't know what, but it's inspiring me to think about it.
OT @ Jas Jain.
Jas, you are absolutely correct about the vital role played by military-state elites and their ethical outlook in sustaining a civilization. The best examples are of course the Kshatrya, the Junker and the Samurai.
Sadly, sovietism and americanism managed to destroy them via military defeat, indoctrination and the libidinal ethos of consumerism.
Just as an anecdote, I know of a Junker family who was disappropriated from their manor and expelled by the communists in 1945. The cemetery of the village around the manor had, side-by-side the graves of generation upon generation of the men -junkers and villagers- who worked the same fields, lived off the same harvests and died on the same battles. Throughoud the centuries Junkers and villagers lived together on the same soil, and depended on each other for security and production. No room for marxist charicatures of class warfare, or the commercialist logic of the quick-buck at the other's expense.
From your opinions, I untersdand you either have already read traditionalists like Julius Evola, or would possibly enjoy their texts. I particularly recommend 'Men Among Ruins' and 'The Doctrine of Awakening', which are available for free download at
Writings of Julius Evola
.
This was also predicted by Gerald Celente of Trends Research. Celente predicts that in 2009,
(1) Major retailers will report horrible holiday sales figures, and several will go bankrupt by February.
(2) The commercial real estate market will crash even harder after bankrupt retailers vacate their stores - there will be no one to take over the empty space
In other news, in his DVD "The Next 12 Months" Lindsey Williams indicated the lower oil price will crush the economies of the middle eastern oil-producing countries. Williams also indicated the dollar is going to be devalued in 2009, and that it will take years for the U.S. to come out of the depression.
Celente and Williams have been correct in the past (search for them in Google Video or YouTube.
lawyerliz: lawyerliz writes:
If nobody has said this, Macy's card is Visa.
Yes it's a VISA card, but from what bank? VISA doesn't lend money - it is just a marketing firm. Cards are issued by banks, credit unions, etc., only.
Macy's (Federated) may own a bank, but if so it is well hidden. I doubt Federated wanted all that debt on their books, so some entity is holding the football (deflated as it may be).
Actually, I don't know who I was reacting to, Jas.
You know maybe there is something to Jas J's caste system insights. Don't know what, but it's inspiring me to think about it.
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 3:30 pm | #
lawyerliz,
Of course there is...esp. if one is believer of aristocracy as opposed to meritocracy.
Broward, are you saying people are too complacent, hence conformists, or too paranoid? Couldn't quite follow your logic
I believe the US has no foundational ethic. Like Jas, I'm a product of America's warrior class.
I realized last year that a myriad of problems in IT are ego-based. Micro-managers, perfectionists, paranoia, prima-donnas.
Ultimately, they're all about an egotistical imperfection. If you understand the structure of that, you can manipulate it. It's kind of a disease vector.
More importantly, I wouldn't cite Schneier's work on crypto to make a case against conformity
I referenced the wrong link. Schneir's more recent thought is that America is reacting with unreasoning paranoia to "what's different".
That's that I've seen, too.
It's an easy rule which requires little thought.
"Different == bad".
It has a lot of unpleasant ramifications.
Well, the Spartans had that culture too and trust me, you wouldn't have wanted to be a Helot.
In fact, you wouldn't want to be a Spartan either, based on what I read.
The 300 notwithstanding.
damn, I've always wanted to be 'Lord Jim'. Bring on the nobility! The Duke of Portland, I'll be.
"Yes Mr. Prime Minister" like the great Paul Krugman said only a few weeks ago. Way to go!
LOL@ The Duke of Portland...
For Volker, et al, Re: GGP's locations. I was at the Oakbrook mall last week, which I believe is owned by GGP. It was as if they were trying to make it hard to shop. The parking lot was barely plowed. The walkways were covered in ice and snow. The Lord & Taylors hardly had any merchandise, and even fewer customers. Macys was full of stuff and people, but no one seemed to be buying. Brookstones seemed to have a few people buying things -- it seemed like the thought was that they will go the way of Sharper Image so if you want what they've got then get it now. Talbots, a former favorite with the women in my clan, has been a dissapointment for at least a year. In my western burb, we have a new, fancy facade strip mall called "Design Pointe" which is supposed to cater to all your home improvement desires. Well...the place is about 20% occupied, and the one time I went there mine was the only car in the whole parking lot. At a neighbor child's birthday party yesterday, I overheard a woman talking about needing to learn to grow her own veggies because things are going to be so bad next year. My husband is seriously thinking of getting me canning supplies for Christmas.
Ha!
I most likely will be starring in my very own Arizona version of Yes, Minister shortly.
Must get some really dry pithy quotes ready.
I luv quangos!!!
Another perfectly useless waste of humanity occupying my office.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Thanks, Aristophon, for reference to Jane Jacobs.
Dark Age Ahead
Published in 2004 by Random House, in Dark Age Ahead Jacobs argued that North American civilization showed signs of spiral of decline comparable to the collapse of the Roman empire. Her thesis focused on five pillars of our culture that we depend on to stand firm, which can be summarized as the nuclear family (but also community), education, science, representational government and taxes, and corporate and professional accountability. As the title suggests, her outlook was far more pessimistic than in her previous books. However, in the conclusion she admitted that, At a given time it is hard to tell whether forces of cultural life or death are in the ascendancy. Is suburban sprawl, with its murders of communities and wastes of land, time, and energy, a sign of decay? Or is rising interest in means of overcoming sprawl a sign of vigor and adaptability in North American culture? Arguably, either could turn out to be true.
Jane Jacobs - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jas
Sometimes I think that aristocracies, whether of war or whatever have the virtue of allowing people to have more self confidence than they otherwise would have resulting in some successes that might not have happened otherwise.
As to religion, the sight of the Cathoic Church, back when it actually had power, was not a pretty sight.
I understand that Asoka (sp?)and the Buddha were a pretty nifty combination.
Can a Duke marry Princess Madeleine or Prince William?
I don't think a Duke is high enough, traditionally.
The difference between yields on U.S. two- and 10-year Treasury notes will shrink further amid efforts to boost the economy and concern that deflation is looming, according to UBS Securities LLC.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows that a flattening of the difference, the so-called yield curve, after it peaked Nov. 13 at 2.62 percentage points is far from over, William O Donnell, a UBS strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a research note today.
Technical analysis, in which charts of trading patterns and prices of securities are studied to forecast changes, does suggest that there is more flattening to come in the curve as we tip into 2009, ODonnell wrote. There is a strong hint that were in the middle phases of a major curve flattening, he wrote.
If CSC were still around, he could get the Duke "high" enough...I wish he and Misean would come back...
Of course there is...esp. if one is believer of aristocracy as opposed to meritocracy.
poster formerly known as nitpi | 12.21.08 - 3:32 pm |
Nitpi, aristocracy is not the logical counterpart of meritocracy. Except for france after the Revolution and Britain, European nobility has been broadly accessible to commoners who showed valour, knowledge, and personal worth.
What you see as the 'American meritocracy' is, in fact, what Aristotle considered the degenerated for of Aristocratic rule, that is, oligharchy. I would rather call it kakistocracy.
lawyerliz,
"Sometimes I think that aristocracies, whether of war or whatever have the virtue of allowing people to have more self confidence than they otherwise would have resulting in some successes that might not have happened otherwise."
Don't you find that rather sad? And upon reflection, rather defeating the concept of "aristocracy", that intrinsic "worth" would be based on lineage instead of accomplishment?
I liked the reference to "wave of mutilation" by the pixies further up the thread. Cool song, businessmen commiting suicide while taking the innocent with them is a good analogy for this period in time.
As far as these comments have descended into philosophy sometimes veiled as psychology it's clear that this crisis is a combination of "ignorace is bliss" plus "something for nothing". I can excuse ignorance from those without access to education and information but this was ignorance by choice which is borderline criminal. It's very clear we need some good leadership, someone who would be putting their life on the line to break the spell of something for nothing culture/business/society. We have a few generations of citizens (when will the government stop calling us consumers?) who have been re-educated in complete mislogic. It's disturbing that the basic rules or logic are not remotely understood by the majority of people. And those who are in positions of power and influence choose not to use it even though they clearly understand it. They promise something for nothing and now people are asking for their something they are getting nothing in return. Ok, next post will be on topic.
lawyerliz: well how about just some rolls in the hay with the royals?
--
Of course there is...esp. if one is believer of aristocracy as opposed to meritocracy.
poster formerly known as nitpi,
As if aristocracy was not based on merit! Merit to defraud, manipulate and mislead?! Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC) used merit to get ahead?
Amazing prejudice against other systems of the past. Regrettably, it is systematically BRED in America.
Jas
TotG,
I take your point about the possibility of accession to "nobility" by "commoners" in some societal structures.
Ethics != religion.
By the way Jane Jacobs also mentioned the "monstrous hybrid" that can result from mixing alien value systems into areas of life that work best with their original value system. For example mixing commercial attitudes with government functions.
\t Aristophon | \t \t \t \t12.21.08 - 2:50 pm | #
Broward - would this fall into your contention of (paraphrasing here) a common vocabulary required to maintain polity?
sdtfs(Good) writes:
\tSatire is hardly dead.
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 3:21 pm | #
And judging by Broward's comments, neither are satyrs.
\t sdtfs | \t \t \t \t12.21.08 - 3:24 pm | #
Clever....
--
Twilight of the Gods,
Thanks. Good knowledge of German ruling class? Please feel free to share. I am still in the early innings of detailed German history.
Jas
Amazing prejudice against other systems of the past
Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 3:46 pm | #
It's a flaw of human nature to declare "we know more now than we ever have" and then use that as proof that past systems are unworthy. Not seeing the absurdity of the statement and writing off the past just keeps us running in slowly expanding circles century after century. I'm sure we could shoot of on a tangent if we didn't believe we were so exceptional, merely lucky. It's causing us to squander our luck for another round of who can piss higher up the wall.
many years ago when I was in business school I was asked by an old and very wealthy family friend what I planned to specialize in. I told him labor relations. His response "son do finance you can always hire somebody to manage your labor but you can't hire somebody to manage your money"
I took his advice and I think others would be well advised to do so themselves.
Can a Duke marry Princess Madeleine or Prince William?
JimPortlandOR
only if they're related
Jas,
"As if aristocracy was not based on merit!"
No doubt that going back to the "starting point" of whatever lineage one picks, merit was the source of the awarding of station. Too often (usually?), though, as time goes on, the offspring are no better (and often worse) than their alleged "inferiors".
I'd guess the majority of posters on this site are over 40. The age factor in how you view the changes taking place is the primary reason for the fear and criticisms displayed.
Remember back to when you were under 30. All the possibilities, all the future paths to be walked. The under 30 crowd is where change always happens. The under 30 crowd WANTS change, needs change and will bring change. 20 years from now they will be the leadership of whatever form this country takes.
All of us over 40's are victims of the changes. We also are victims of our age and ability to adapt. I'm trying to embrace what is coming with as many prudent preparations I can. I refuse to go into bunker mode and I will persevere to support the younger citizens when they inevitably take action. I'd suggest supporting the civil disobedience and show the future leaders how a multi-generational movement is the middle path to sustainable stability.
Don't you find that rather sad? And upon reflection, rather defeating the concept of "aristocracy", that intrinsic "worth" would be based on lineage instead of accomplishment?
poster formerly known as nitpi | 12.21.08 - 3:44 pm | #
Not really. It sets a benchmark: "Can I meet or exceed my ancestor's acheivements?" combined with the responsibilty not to disgrace the family name and dishonor the ancestors.
Gerald Celente of Trends Research I think what is even more striking is things that he didn't predict that happened.
MP3 players, blackberries the internet $147 oil.
It didn't take genius to figure out that sales were going to be lousy this Xmas. Now if he was able to predict the year that we would get out of this mess that would be something- you say we will not come out of it for years BFD.
As to offspring there is something in IQ studies called "regression toward the mean", ie, kids have, on average lower IQs than their high IQ parents. Likewise low IQ'ed parents have smarter kids than one would predict.
Also people who blank out Jas, I can certainly understand it, but his insights are so off the wall that sometimes they do inspire thought.
When he is in an especially dope mongering mood, you can ignore him.
As to rolls in the hay, gosh, what about droit du (de?) seignor?
--
rps,
Big fan of Frederic Bastiat. Thanks. Time to reread him.
Jas
Nitpi, there are exceptions of course. Revolutionary dictators like Napoleon and Stalin create their own oligarchy based on cronyism and ideological correctness. A true aristocracy of valour must be based on the possibility of competitively climb the social ladder, otherwise it declines and finally dies.
To function however, aristocratic rule must grow organically in multi-generational tradition. When families rise and fall in the course of centuries, the game will be played strategically, and not under the pressures of short-term tactics. Tradition and reputation become become the most useful capital to be passed to the next generation.
The destruction of many traditional social institutions through war or revolution equals inexorably to an irreversible destruction of social capital.
inbreds are people too writes:
Can a Duke marry Princess Madeleine or Prince William?
JimPortlandOR
only if they're related
Just like Arkansas!
OT: Magazine Indicator strikes again.
I'm calling a "top" in this guy's career.
inbreds are people too writes:
Can a Duke marry Princess Madeleine or Prince William?
JimPortlandOR
only if they're related
Just like Arkansas!
Comrade Volker the
Hence, "The Dukes of Hazzard"?...
I think some of the big box retailers will down size with 2-3 separate business under one roof (they will have plenty of buildings) like many fast foods have. I also think they will franchise smaller towns with stores similar to A SEARS catalog store like where I live. Store is about 4000sqf popular items stocked and one day store delivery from the nearest city. Look back at they way business was done for tomorrows growth potential.
I'm calling a "top" in this guy's career.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 4:01 pm
As usual PCA, you are wrong. Phillip Seymour Hoffman is one of the best actors around
FBI Agents Shifted From Terror Work to Madoff, Subprime Probes
FBI Uses Triage to Shift From Terror to Madoff, Subprime Probes - Bloomberg.com
Take that Flag off the NYSE.
I saw the trailer to Doubt and while I have no doubt it is fabulous, I don't want to see it. Don't want to know the secret life of priests and nuns. Didn't like the non-secret part. Been there, done that.
lawyerliz -
The sons of the monarch of England are Dukes, but regardless, any of the nobility can marry royalty, and assume higher titles. It's only when you have royalty marry commoners (like Edward VIII) that they must give up the crown. NB, he still retained his dukedom; he ws still the Duke of Windsor.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman is one of the best actors around
I don't really like him either.
Oh, and that list of dead malls? The 2 I know about have been dead or almost dead for 10 or 15 years or even more.
Omni in Miami? I don't know of anyone who has gone to Omni in at least that long.
Paris Hilton is an American Princess. I nominate her for future Queen of the Americas.
Aristocracies are based solely on wealth,land ownership,and history. They function to cement wealth and status for the ruling class. Giving a family a title is an empty gesture unless the family has the material possessions to mark them as part of the cabal.
The death tax was America's way of stopping this process from taking hold. A feudal system seems to be forming but there is a competition between Corporations and elite families. I think some sort of hybrid form from these two entities melding will become the leadership of the world.
I will always believe the Chi Pet was the first signal of the downfall of the US society.
Jas Jain writes:
Of course there is...esp. if one is believer of aristocracy as opposed to meritocracy.
poster formerly known as nitpi,
As if aristocracy was not based on merit! Merit to defraud, manipulate and mislead?! Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC) used merit to get ahead?
Amazing prejudice against other systems of the past. Regrettably, it is systematically BRED in America.
Jas
Jas,
nice use of smokescreen technology--what are you saying here, anyway?
Pet rock was first!
I think we need a thread on PEAK GDP. We've passed it. This might be the recession that never ends (if all govts stimulate to avoid a sharp collapse) with endless qtr after qtr of negative growth).
GDP never goes up ?
I will always believe the Chi Pet was the first signal of the downfall of the US society.
Bob | 12.21.08 - 4:08 pm | #
Whereas the Pet Rock was a sign of our strength as a nation. Unfortunately, "Paper" covers "Rock" so we're in the unhappy position of waiting for the "Scissors of Obama"?
Can state owned mfrs in China go BK , and would we ever know ? How can we see if the retail failures go upstream if there is zero transparency?
If CSC were still around, he could get the Duke "high" enough...I wish he and Misean would come back...
And where's Uncle Billy? Is he off climbing Mount Pelerin again?
Don't forget force when speaking of aristocracies. Those 1066 Norman aristocrats would have never taken over due to merit!!!! It was force.
And isn't it a truism that the aristocrat in need of cash marries the son or daughter of a wealthy merchant who wants the title? At least in fiction and I think in reality too.
Wasn't it that the commoner in question was divorced the big problem actually?
LOL @ sdtfs
Amazon.com: The RULES OF CIVILITY (9780684837239): Richard Brookhiser: Books
Rules worked for Washington. He wasn't a saint, but he certainly made himself a gentlemen.
We could use a few gentlemen and ladies in public life.
LMAO at both joe after the 12 pack's and sdtfs's comments
Support BH's assertion that corruption has become the norm for everyday people.
10 Worst Employees of 2008
MSN Careers - 10 Worst Employees of 2008 - Career Advice Article
--
Thanks to quite a few posters today for good references and comments.
Despite what some may think I am always trying to be a lesser dope than the day before.
Jas
Jacked...The competition between Corporations and Elite Families..Being waged very openly, yet you are the first to mention it out in the open.
Jas, give us yor take.
Jas,
No hard feelings here...
And isn't it a truism that the aristocrat in need of cash marries the son or daughter of a wealthy merchant who wants the title? At least in fiction and I think in reality too.
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 4:12 pm | #
I believe Lord Louis Mountbatten married the daughter of his banker.
Jas Jain writes:
Thanks to quite a few posters today for good references and comments.
Despite what some may think I am always trying to be a lesser dope than the day before.
With all do respect, Jas, has you ever considered it might not be working?
Oil price. Coincidence or ..?
Daily Kos: The Enron Loophole is Closed! Senator Levin: Bless you!!
Maybe they can get the same undertaker and coroner who worked on Lay to work on Madoff (wink wink).
I hear they're not cheap!
IWannaknow writes:
Jacked...The competition between Corporations and Elite Families..Being waged very openly, yet you are the first to mention it out in the open.
International Forecaster December 2008 (#6) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More
Just an annecdote about retailing in Jonesboro, AR. The last week an ice/snowstorm hit and hardly any retailers/strip malls tooks steps to clear the accumulation on their lots or sidewalks. In years past that had been done. I wondered if they were trying to save money this year.
Certainly the store I work at did almost nothing to make it easier for shoppers to get inside without breaking bones along the way.
Then again, The employees here realize that our corporate m,asters seem to have the attitude " We're (name witheld) We ddon't have to care."
I'd guess the majority of posters on this site are over 40.
Jacked | 12.21.08 - 3:57 pm | #
Not all! There are definitely some under 30s in here as well. And I agree with you. I was much more negative six months ago before we finally started the depression. I had been waiting for the global ponzi scheme to unravel for a long time at that point. I was at a BSC subsidiary when their 2 funds imploded. I had been reading TBP for a while and caught a link to CR that day. But now we are here it's much easier to focus on the way out since more people are willing to listen.
Broward's flashing his privateers again...
C
"The value of gold doesn't change. It hasn't changed in 5000 years. Everything else changes around it."
Yes indeed. Especially perception management.
January 2009 Table of Contents - National Geographic Magazine
Ow!
Burned by my own sarcasm--
'do' >>> 'due'
has >>> 'have'
Sorry, Jas, I stand corrected ...
"her sense is that there's an increase in the on-line etail with in store pick-up to avoid shipping charges
this would lend itself to shed light on the notion that people are going to the mall, buying for a list and not hanging around very long
why should they, go quickly, do not look at the displays, do not stop at the clearance racks, just go, go home
Comrade Volker the Viking | 12.21.08 - 2:59 pm | # [kill]"
Excellent information, thank you. I'm wondering if we'll see the return of the Sears/Monkey Ward catalog stores. They were >5000 square-foot stores that had a certain amount of merchandise, but mainly existed for catalog ordering and pickup.
It could be a good future model for general merchandise businesses: a limited selection of popular items combined with receiving facilities for items purchased from the company's much more extensive online catalog.
The advantage: a hands-on showroom for online purchases, and a brick-and-mortar place to return online purchases instead of having to ship it all back.
heads up isaac writes:
I'd guess the majority of posters on this site are over 40.
Jacked | 12.21.08 - 3:57 pm | #
Under Thirty Here.
Zavvi used to be virgin records, all of the high street expenses, none of the goodwill.
The UK would be looking at a situation an order of magnitude worse than the US except a massive devaluation of the pound is what they've needed even before Thatcher.
Last night of the Spain excursion; Valencia is soft, but not as bad as I expecte; madrid, Barcelona , Bilbao going as if nothing happened. Anecdotal info supports belief that major payne is camped out along the southern coast and a big chunk of it is related to UK implosion.
I need to do some more demographic research, but there may be some lifetime opportunities forming in RE.
Excellent information, thank you. I'm wondering if we'll see the return of the Sears/Monkey Ward catalog stores. They were >5000 square-foot stores that had a certain amount of merchandise, but mainly existed for catalog ordering and pickup.
Sounds like Service Merchandise. Do they still exist?
Funny thing, I'm starting to see "lay away" programs coming back. Our family always used to do that when I was growing up.
"this would lend itself to shed light on the notion that people are going to the mall, buying for a list and not hanging around very long"
And yet online purchases are showing a YOY decline for the first time ever versus 17% I believe YOY increase last year.
Either brick and mortar is much worse then being reported or something doesn't add up.
In regard to Madoff flight risk, is it possible to jump bail and just disappear?
Yes.
In 1974 I was a newspaper reporter in Tampa, Fl, covering the trial of a boat captain turned Columbian drug smuggler named Raymond Grady Stansell, Jr. He had moved so much money offshore that the judge said he surely would flee. But Florida law required bail, so the judge set it at $10 million.
A week before his trial, his attorney showed up for a hearing and said Raymond Grady had drowned while scuba diving in Honduras. The judge asked where the body was, and the attorney said: "It hasn't been found."
It hasn't since.
The $10 million helped Hillsborough County's budget quite a bit.
Does Madoff scuba dive?
Jeeez, Jas Jain shows some insight and humility and people jump on him? Where's the Christman spirit?
Lawyer Liz - swallow your fears and go see Doubt. It's a great story about the dangers of moral and intellectual certainty. (No, it's not about the Bush Presidency.)
The advantage: a hands-on showroom for online purchases, and a brick-and-mortar place to return online purchases instead of having to ship it all back.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 4:25 pm | #
The catalog stores of Montgomery Wards, Sears, and JC Penneys was a successful business plan for many years. The adjustments you noted might bring back that model. Interesting.
Too late for MW and most likely too late for Sears and JCP.
Jas, just to illustrate the martial ethics of duty to the state of a Junker family, this is a memorial of the young men fallen in combat during WWII.
Ehrentafel
No draft-dodging nor mawkishness here.
Jacked writes:
"10 Worst Employees of 2008"
I didn't think No. 8 was so bad; probably great for business after word got out.
I'm really enjoying Londonbanker's re-posts of stuff he did for Roubini but was never carried on his site.
Some of it is simply platinum:
London Banker
C
It could be a good future model for general merchandise businesses: a limited selection of popular items combined with receiving facilities for items purchased from the company's much more extensive online catalog.
The advantage: a hands-on showroom for online purchases, and a brick-and-mortar place to return online purchases instead of having to ship it all back.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 4:25 pm | #
Thanks for the come back, good buddy.
I would hesitate to get ahead of the situation. This could take years to play out.
All the others that came back, thanks as well. Truly, something doesn't add up. We, as astute market watchers, may be able to decipher the clues.
It all indicates a return to local people trading between themselves.
In terms of what's different about this recession, we did not have mass retail chains bankruptcies in prior recessions, even in the 80's. There have been a lot of retail bankruptcies over the years but they haven't been very strongly tied to the business cycle. It's been more of a secular shift from downtown/walkable/mom and pop/small chains to big chain stores and auto malls.
Now the retail models that have been wiping everybody else out for the past 30 years are suddenly facing mass bankruptcies on an unprecedented scale. It's quite a shock.
Paulson's worst Nightmare ... consumers who refuse to spend -
Satisfaction From a Dollar Well-Unspent - washingtonpost.com
--
A feudal system seems to be forming but there is a competition between Corporations and elite families. I think some sort of hybrid form from these two entities melding will become the leadership of the world.
Jacked,
Wealthy families have been around for at least 100 years in America and their influence relative to professional managers, corporate as well as those appointed to very powerful positions, and not to neglect the experts, e.g., economists, has been in steady decline.
Who have more power on Americans lives, the wealthy families of the past or the economists and policymakers, including those on the Federal Reserve?
Jas
I have very low opinion of my relatives in India, most of whom are businessmen and some of whom are rich. And they are "practicing" Jains no better than practicing Christians in America! Beware of labels!
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 3:15 pm | #
But the Jain temple in Calcutta is a very cool place, with the possible exception of the Victoria Memorial, the most impressive building in the city.
Jacked @ 3:57pm
FDR was 51 when he took office, Churchill was 66 when he became PM in 1940. FDR was sufficiently optimistic that he seems to have managed to make millions of Americans feel things in the US could get better. He was known for being willing to try all sorts of projects & ideas to get people working again. Some of them didn't work, but that didn't seem to stop or discourage him. His wife, Eleanor (also over 40, I believe, while FDR was in office) was way more radical than he was & constantly pushed him to do more in the area of civil rights for blacks, for women, etc. I think she became something at the UN when she was in her 60's.
WSC was known for his ability to screw up & still come back & try again (& he'd screwed up big time when he was younger). Despite his age, he too was able to give hope to his constituency. And try out new ideas (he was in favor of utilizing planes, etc., for war purposes, long before others in the UK gov't were, for example).
Some of the most rigid & cautious people I've met/worked with, are adolescents--because some of them are so afraid of "looking bad" or doing something their peers don't. I've heard at least one AP sciences teacher say the same: "just tell me what's gonna be on the test & don't bother me with anything else."
Sometimes becoming older frees people from the need to care about what other people think or do. See some of Carl Jung's work regarding midlife changes (not that I agree w/all Jung says)
[Spatch writes:
Paulson's worst Nightmare ... consumers who refuse to spend ]
Yes -- Keynes' "Paradox of Thrift". It might be slightly exaggerated because of negative wage gains over the past 10yrs. Maybe the 21st century version is "Necessity of Thrift"
Heads up Isaac
Hi. Just a few rambling attempts to respond to one of your posts above. Bear with me, still working through this myself and these ideas are floating around. I figure if I talk about them and type about them enough it will help me figure them out. (earlier me and pavel were discussing this topic too.)
My issue with what you said above is about waiting for leadership, a leader that can see clearly enough and is committed enough to be willing to die to show the error etc. I say bah.
Waiting for the leader to show is a very big part of what we bamboozled ourselves with. It helped our civilization lie internally and let this crap happen.
I bet there were plenty of people (and I am snarling at myself here too) that saw things happening and never made a peep, since "if it was soooo bad a leader would show up and um, lead" or speak out, or protest.
One of my personal moments that shame me is the first time I realized that american citizens were no longer being called citizens, but american consumers. I didnt protest, write, yell, bitch, nada. Just looked around, saw the numbness, and went on.
That is where waiting for leadership gets you. into the numb even faster.
Now i dont wait for a leader or a better smarter more able person. I just do my little part. (little person, little steps)
I correct people when they use that word,when i hear it on the news or in reports i strongly call horsepuckey on it and explain to whoever is around me why i think it is horrid etc, even if it is just my 8 yr old son.
What I am trying to say in my rambling way is that it comes from inside. Even if it is small things, or if it is huge things, dont wait for someone else to notice, identify and correct.
Start being your own leader
It May Be 'China's Time' to Leapfrog Ahead in Biopharma
It May Be 'China's Time' to Leapfrog Ahead in Biopharma -- Seeking Alpha
azurite:said "Some of the most rigid & cautious people"
Wasn't it widely said that that after the Second World War it was the oldest generation (the grandfathers, so to speak) that provided the leadership to rebuild the economically --and intellectually -- devastated Europe?
There was such great intellectual and moral bankruptcy exposed by that war that new ways of looking at things had to come from those who had little leadership during the time that led to the disaster.
"Sometimes becoming older frees people from the need to care about what other people think or do. See some of Carl Jung's work regarding midlife changes (not that I agree w/all Jung says)"
This is true to a great extent, given growth into maturity.
I'll be 70 next month, and while in some ways I feel freer, in other ways, in certain circumstances, I also see the virtue in keeping one's counsel. Mouthing off can be a way of showing off, which is the essence of being expensively juvenile.
Had one of those Sears Catalog Stores for 21 years.
It was a wonderful life. Small town America, Sears word truly meant something at that time, but Alas the top become liar's and greed overcome a great model that had worked for many years.
Tim and the Xmas Miracle, I have underwear that old.
Tech: And You Think Q4's Going to Be Bad? - Barron's
If you are thinking the first quarter looks bad, wait until you see the rest of the year - particularly for chip stocks. Analyst Mark Lipacis sees earnings for the semiconductor firms in his universe down a startling 78% vs. the Street's -27%.
Other companies in peril: Palm (PALM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Motorola (MOT), Sirius XM Radio (SIRI).
Tech: And You Think Q4's Going to Be Bad? - Barron's -- Seeking Alpha
Many retailers will fail... but I think most here have it wrong. The mom and pop businesses are by far struggling the most. I see a mass "die off" for off mall competition. The big box and department stores will shrink in size but in the end the locations they keep (they still have many that are highly profitable) could be stronger due to less competition.
--
"Jas, just to illustrate the martial ethics of duty to the state of a Junker family, this is a memorial of the young men fallen in combat during WWII."
Twilight of the Gods,
Thanks again. I don't understand German language but the photos convey most of the meaning.
Junkers were of far superior ability and ethics, including hard work, than BFNYC, "raised in a culture of fraud." But, since BFNYC and their agents are Americans' leaders (and they control Americans money and wealth!) they must be better. Fatal conceit!
The plain fact is that Americans simply dont know what to do about their bad leaders. So much for the best system claim. A BAD SYSTEM ELEVATES BAD PEOPLE TO THE TOP!
Houston, we have a problem!
No solution on the list, Roger!!
Are we screwed, Houston?!!!
Communication goes dead
Jas
Sounds like Service Merchandise. Do they still exist?
Funny thing, I'm starting to see "lay away" programs coming back. Our family always used to do that when I was growing up.
Bob | 12.21.08 - 4:28 pm | #
I think you'll see a return of stores which sell products rather than image. Hopefully we'll see the return of a culture that provides product rather than image.
azurite | 12.21.08 - 4:44 pm | #
Excellent points when viewed from that period of time and leadership. I also agree with your assertion that the older you get the less you care about perception.
I believe we are facing the worst economic collapse and social collapse ever witnessed. Huge urban populations, consolidation of assets, concentration of food production, dependency on very fragile infrastructures, and loss of confidence. The stage has been set and when the cracks lead to collapse it will be the under 30 demographic who will either become the roving bands of destruction or the marchers bringing change. Flip a coin.
The older you get the more you have to lose and protect. I believe there is very little salvageable from the set of circumstances that have been engineered/supported. I want the advantages of youth to be channeled towards productive change and not destruction. Understanding the change will come from their actions and then supporting the behavior that is geared towards accountability and support for the citizens is crucial.
Tracking Greece closely. The young student "anarchists" are lighting fires that will result in either a brutal crackdown or collapse of the society that maintains a semblance of functional operations. If there were large coordinated marches from all ages then the government would be forced to negotiate and compromise. The either or choice being demonstrated is the trap all societies must avoid.
I believe Lord Louis Mountbatten married the daughter of his banker.
Right, Norka. Well, granddaughter actually.
Used to see the Mountbattens at polo matches at Aiken in the 1950s. She was stunningly chic - photos don't do justice.
...american citizens were no longer being called citizens, but american consumers. I didnt protest, write, yell, bitch, nada. Just looked around, saw the numbness, and went on.
its been said many times, and bears repeating- even shouting.
i think this, more than anything is the root of it. con men will con, and suckers will...suck?
rsj hearts Bakunin...
C
I'm still titillated by the idea of Hank Paulson's wife reading this blog on the sly.
Tears staining the silk collar of her faux casual Chanel nightie.
Twilight of the Gods writes:
"... this is a memorial of the young men fallen in combat during WWII.
Verband der Familie v. Restorff e. V. Ehren...Ehrentafeln.htm
No draft-dodging nor mawkishness here."
look where and when they died:
Moscow August '41
France May '40
Kiev June '42
Scharnhorst (at Sea) Dec '43
Smolensk Aug '41
Budapest '44
No one can imagine what they witnessed.
OT:
Chevy crushes Honda in Hawaii
Almost, anyways.
"Severtson said the dealership had been planning the crush-fest for a while. But he said it was a happy coincidence President Bush approved a bailout for U.S. automakers as the weekend arrived. "We'd like to send the message that the best way to support your country is to buy an American vehicle today," Severtson said."
Whew, Markit will be pushing back their creation of a public index to track AAA MBS till 2009 after consultations with market participants. Can't have transparency until the resets have occured and prime MBS sludge has been pushed onto the taxpayer.
I was a bit worried there that transparency of the market was coming.
Mr. Mortgage’s Guide to the TRUTH! » Pandora’s Box – Prime Mortgages May Get Transparency
Well, I planted a cute little yellow plum tomato plant and an eggplant today.
Does that count?
I dunno pissed, doesn't everyone pretty much know that mtg securities are toast? Those that don't know, won't care to know the details of just how horrible they are.
Do even 10% of the population know what MBS are?
I think you'll see a return of stores which sell products rather than image. Hopefully we'll see the return of a culture that provides product rather than image.
heads up isaac | 12.21.08 - 4:57 pm | #
And you'll know the person you're dealing with because you're looking them in the eye.
Feckless: Hi. Was testing the refrigerator blog door theory again -- does conversation continue even when you don't post?
It feels like we're all blind villagers walking around the carcass of a dead elephant, sniffing here and there and getting different impressions depending on where we sniff. It's a monkey... no, it's a chicken, etc.
We're still devouring each new bit of carrion and trying to figure out how to shift our shekels around to minimize the damage. CR, there have been a lot of stray good ideas that have hit the blog over the last couple of years, but nothing seems to have stuck. Can you dedicate a persistent thread to ideas about the steps we need to take (and I guess this means defining "we" very clearly) going forward. Something like a weeklong brainstorming session where we can aggregate ideas. From there, one more thread that identifies the best of them, which might even suggest a workable plan?
"Do even 10% of the population know what MBS are?
I always thought it was a part of the educational hierarchy:
BS = bullshit
MBS = More bullshit
PhD = Piled higher and deeper
Do even 10% of the population know what MBS are?
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 5:16 pm | #
No, but they understand job loss and hunger. Blame assessment is also big with the masses. Watching attempts of channeling that currently. Division among Americans has been carefully supported for decades.
--
"But the Jain temple in Calcutta is a very cool place, with the possible exception of the Victoria Memorial, the most impressive building in the city."
Dirk,
There are many very beautiful Jain temples including one in my birth-state of Rajasthan.
Wealth does not mean piety! Many of my pious relatives, I mean those who peddle piety, are not very good human beings. Long time ago there were many Jain scholars but pursuit of money destroyed scholarship. Nowhere better seen than in NYC where scholarship is on sale and in most cases sold to the highest bidder.
Money can destroy many good things!
Jas
What I am trying to say in my rambling way is that it comes from inside. Even if it is small things, or if it is huge things, dont wait for someone else to notice, identify and correct.
rsj | 12.21.08 - 4:48 pm | #
This site helped me to be my "own leader". I had concrete information to write letters to my representative, senators and state rep. and helped friends and family do the same. But the dismissive stock replies left a bitter taste in my mouth. I advised family on their financial matters and tried to portray the criminality of those in power. It's a slow process but reality pushed everyone in the past year more than any amount of talking has.
But we need more, I need to do more. I have considered local politics but I believe that "change" comes too slowly from that avenue. This isn't a moment where the pendulum starts retracing its path. The pendulum was corrupted and doesn't measure time appropriately anymore. I knew what to do when it was "small" things. Now I'm a bit lost, but even more motivated.
Feckless: Hi. Was testing the refrigerator blog door theory again -- does conversation continue even when you don't post?
Uncle Billy Snorts | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 5:18 pm | #
Conversation goes on with the door closed, but it's brighter with the light on and the door open.
And hot air gets in the fridge.
Whether big or small, it's all about the balance sheet. If you are highly leveraged you probably won't survive. If you aren't you probably will.
rich, great story. You must remember then, a few years later when 'Snow Blind' (the paperback) swept through our '70's culture. For sure Madoff has many offshore accounts, scattered here and there. I bet he disappears. For one thing, obviously he knows where many bodies are buried otherwise, he would not be enjoying his current leverage. The question is not can he flee, but rather will he flee. I say he will flee. Ecuador comes to mind....living an alias life... well guarded.
Here, here Uncle Billy.
CR has carefully cultivated his neutrality. Taking a small step to allow something constructive going forward would change his position but the time to get off the fence has come.
Or maybe not. Each person must make their own choices. Either way I'm grateful for the blog and comment section.
Regarding aristocracy, Arnold Schwarzenegger's marriage to a Kennedy is a prime example of a marriage of mutual convenience. Arnold had fame, money and a certain popularity. Ms. Kennedy had the neo-aristocratic bloodline and the accompanying power network. Both parties benefit, as Arnold gets validation as an American aristocrat and Kennedys extend the reach of their domain to the west coast. The current theater taking place regarding the possible appointment of Caroline Kennedy to Clinton's Senate seat is a powerful indicator that monarchism/aristocracy holds a lot of appeal for the American masses. Personally I think it is a travesty that she is even being considered.
Thanks lawyerliz.
Jas - I planned to spend Y2K out of Jaisalmer on a Y2K-compliant camel but the security wienies persuaded the higher-ups that it was too risky, and I would have to cut time short and head to an OECD country for the zero hour (ie one with systemic risk of banking system breakdown if the worst occurred).
Just surreal.
Still had some memorable days in Jaisalmer, including dinner on the outer wall listening to the fighter jets take off to sortie at the border.
Camel driver tried to nick my traveling buddy's wallet.
Didn't get a tip.
C
Uncle Billy
Good idea. Good video, too.
Jacked, a dedicated thread wouldn't preclude him from neutrality.
"Does that count?
I dunno pissed, doesn't everyone pretty much know that mtg securities are toast? Those that don't know, won't care to know the details of just how horrible they are.
Do even 10% of the population know what MBS are?"
Yes this is very important. Trust will only come back into the system with transparency. This is an indication that we are nowhere near the end of this quagmire.
As long as market participants are not forced to mark their holdings to market trust will not re-appear.
The Markit ABX sub-prime indexes were a prime driver behind the write-downs we have seen.
As long as there are no available market inputs most financial companies can move their MBS to level 3 and value them at whatever model they choose.
I dunno. I always wondered why small scale crooks the hub prosecuted didn't flee. Mostly they didn't. They had no end game planned out.
Someone posted a link showing M's French Villa--or at least the entrance. Suffice it to say chez lawyerliz doesn't have an entrance feature like that.
Now without that 7 bill that people wanted back the scheme could have gone on for years.
Why didn't he get rid of such highly visible assets and hide them when he could?
Nobody suspected, and nobody will. So Bernie is selling his French villa. Gosh, he doesn't spend any time there anyway, he's too busy watching my investments.
I don't think he actually has an end game planned out.
If I were running a scheme like that, I couldn't enjoy my ill gotten gains.
I really would like to get in the head of somebody like that.
Why didn't he get rid of such highly visible assets and hide them when he could?
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 5:34 pm | #
Who's to say he didn't? If they're hidden, you can't see them.
I really would like to get in the head of somebody like that.
\t lawyerliz | \t \t \t \t12.21.08 - 5:34 pm | #
With a scalpel, hatchet, or dull butter knife?
Jacked, a dedicated thread wouldn't preclude him from neutrality.
Uncle Billy Snorts | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 5:32 pm | #
Sure it would. By giving a forum to voice solutions you have to identify the problems. The problems are firmly based on policy, laws, lack of oversight and accountability of our businesses and legislators. Proposing solutions identify the sources of those problems. Problematic for the people running things when it all failed.
Jas, Have not made it to Rajastan, but hope to on one of my future trips, mostly go to Calcutta (Zacks offices there), but have made side trips to Shilong in Assam, Delhi/Agra and Vishnupur. Understand Rajastan is awesome. Really enjoyed Agra, not just the Taj, but esp Fetpur Sekri (sp?). The trip to Shilong was super cool as well, sort of like going to Shangra-la.
For my money, good art and archetecture are just about the only positives to come from any religion.
Thanks for reminding me. I'm going to order that book.
One problem Madoff has is that he could be vulnerable in prison. He has infuriated a lot of rich people, and they have ways of getting money to the families of incarcerated people, in return for a little shiv action here and there.
The guards, too, can be persuaded with a little cash not to listen to screams at night too much.
If you are in prison serving a long sentence without chance of parole, hey, you still gotta do what you can to support your family.
Now without that 7 bill that people wanted back the scheme could have gone on for years.
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 5:34 pm | #
This is the 800lb gorilla sitting in a corner on the trading floor. How much did other funds see? I suspect herd mentality at work and all the funds saw requests in the 20-50% range. It is now a matter of who blinks first before the crush at the exits.
Ummm, exit, decisions, decisions. Actually I'd like to have extensive conversations with him. With a battery of shrinks and other types watching.
There was an FBI guy==who invented profiling, who went around obsessively interviewing serial killers.
Something like that.
THEN, the hatchet vs dull knife thing.
Liz- batteries work too.
Jacked. It's a shame. Take all the energy and quality of thought that's devoted to analyzing and predicting and snarking here and put it into building something.
So, I repeat, why not sell the French villa too?
So you think there are a lot of schemes, dawg?
"Now without that 7 bill that people wanted back the scheme could have gone on for years.
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 5:34 pm | #
This is the 800lb gorilla sitting in a corner on the trading floor. How much did other funds see? I suspect herd mentality at work and all the funds saw requests in the 20-50% range. It is now a matter of who blinks first before the crush at the exits. "
A lot of the big money put into Madoff was fund of fund money, basically a hedge fund that takes in money and invests it in other hedge funds. There could be a very nasty bout of cascading hedge fund redemptions.
I really would like to get in the head of somebody like that.
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 5:34 pm | #
With a scalpel, hatchet, or dull butter knife?
Exit | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 5:38 pm | #
LOL EXIT, put me down for a hacksaw
We are building something. This blog is a great art work.
Elizabeth Warren, on the disappearance of the middle class (about an hour, worth listening/watching)
YouTube - Conversations with History: Elizabeth Warren
lawyerliz writes: ..I don't think he actually has an end game planned out.
I asked myself the same question...do i think he planned a backdoor. My bet is he did. The properties, like the french villa were also props, part of the con. He basically washed 30 to 40 billion by recycling it into the burn. Very hard to believe he wasn't salting cash away in a safe haven, knowing that one day it was going to blow up. It was inevitable.
The guy is leveraging something right now in order to be on the street. He's acting like a man with a plan. It would NOT have been fatherly to skip out in advance of the destruction; his sons would have swung for it. Now he can take the blame - and take a powder and disappear too.
lawyerliz(Excellent) writes:
We are building something. This blog is a great art work.
I agree. It will be a domesday book of its era for future anthropologists.
--
Counterpointer,
LOL. BTW, I was in Jaisalmer the morning after India's test of the nuke bomb on a Rajput friend's (village lords, a lower ranks of aristocracy) wedding. The food was awesome. Man, has the area changed since due to tourism.
Jas
Dirk! You have a real life persona out in the world - sure you want to post such nefarious (albeit humorous) inclinations publicly? LOL
Maybe get the Ving Rhames character in Pulp Fiction to Get midieval on his ass
lawyerliz writes:
We are building something. This blog is a great art work.
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 5:45 pm | #
CR comments as a religion? With Bill (CR) as the pope (Tanta is already an Angel) and Conjure Bag as Prophet or Oracle
Blogging has a purpose and a certain usefulness.
I often wonder as I read someones thoughtful comment what if any effort they are putting into bettering their community. I wonder what could be accomplished, by what is evidently a bright light in the darkness, if they could influence their surroundings positively. Hours spent typing and surfing is hours wasted in a sense.
I am the kettle to any pots sitting out there.
For good or ill jas?
Yeah, I thought of that, it was just a prop.
If he were that smart, he'd have a place for the family too, AND he would have foreseen the redemption problem, which after all, had started to happen a while ago.
As I said, the small scale guys just don't seem to understand that it's all gonna end. I think this could be true of him too.
If Paulson isn't so smart after all, why should Madoff be?
So, I repeat, why not sell the French villa too?
So you think there are a lot of schemes, dawg?
lawyerliz | 12.21.08 - 5:43 pm | #
Having my larcenous streak under control I can only tell you that big criminals don't have modest exit strategies because they start believing their own lies.
No, I don't think there is too much in the way of ponzi schemes or other such outright fraud but I traded futures for a short while. There isn't even any question that pennies are skimmed, market transactions are conducted at disadvantageous ticks, advisors push sides of the trade to cover ttheir own butts, etc. There's a culture of graft in the entire financial pyramid. That $600b annually is decanted from the volume of market transactions is why the entire system is collapsing. Worse so far all the answers have been to preserve that very system. Thus the $1.6b in bonuses because that's the way it's done.
--
There cannot be a prosperous state without de facto aristocratic families. And what about an empire? Impossible. In any ongoing empire many new aristocratic families arise and some old ones are dethroned or made irrelevant.
How many Kennedys (Joe's descendents) have served jail time?
Americans are masters of denial. American People love to be lied to! And our aspiring leaders know this open secret.
Jas
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins(Excellent) writes:
\tlawyerliz(Excellent) writes:
We are building something. This blog is a great art work.
I agree. It will be a domesday book of its era for future anthropologists.
| \t12.21.08 - 5:47 pm | #
\t Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | \t \t \tHomepage
Presumes a power source and a secure and navigable storage entity. If it goes Mad Max.... not so much.
OTOH, I look at the blog like performance art, real-life theatre, with actors entering the fray and occasionally leaving it. Some great - Tanta - others of the near nobility - CSC, EHP - with villains re-appearing from time to time.
Our gracious creator, CR, has slowly slipped into the background after each post. Looking at early posts, he was quite visible in the comment section. Now, rarely. The cacaphony is difficult to breach, like the din at intermission.
A new art form, replete with humor, pathos, vitriol, and charm.
If I weren't blogging, I'd be reading a trashy novel or watching tv.
I think that hanging out with you jokers is a far superior activity.
" need to do some more demographic research, but there may be some lifetime opportunities forming in RE.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich"
Great to hear from you. I'm surprised Barcelona and the Balearic Islands haven't taken some pain.
Fair enough LL. Off to clear some snow.
My thanks as always for the sheer entertainment value of CR.
This is the 800lb gorilla sitting in a corner on the trading floor. How much did other funds see? I suspect herd mentality at work and all the funds saw requests in the 20-50% range. It is now a matter of who blinks first before the crush at the exits.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 5:41 pm | #
I was amusing myself looking through the SEC filings for the fund I used to work for.
Their 2008Q3 report of long positions showed a 32% drop in long positions from Q2. Now, they're a long/short fund, so I expect their shorts (undisclosed) went down some amount as well, but that's still a big drop.
Snow? Clear snow?
What's that?
It's hope for people moving to Fla and filling the empty houses.
Jacked writes:
Support BH's assertion that corruption has become the norm for everyday people.
10 Worst Employees of 2008
http://msn.careerbuilder.com/Art...-283190792-VF- 4
There's corruption and there's corruption.
After reading this msn article, I'd be surprised if the total amount of mischief caused by all ten of the "worst" employees amounted to 5 million dollars.
Let's see, isn't that 1/10,000th of the alleged damage Madoff says he did? And he's just one manager crook...
(Now think of the Tan Man , etc. ad nauseam....)
Exit, It would seem intelectually dishonest of me to change to a pseudoym and I think even the real world types who might see this would understand that I am not actually suggesting opening up Madoff's skull slowly with a hacksaw. (as satisfying on some level as that might be, I'm a very easy going and non violent person) Our media relations guy did get on my case a bit about calling out spicific CNBC personalities by name, and he does have a point there, I do like to be invited to do appearances there. They dont mind if it is a general comment about "some" of the people there, but best not to spicifically call individuals idiots regardless of how silly they are sometimes.
"AP study finds $1.6B went to bailed-out bank execs'
I can't see it as anything other than criminal behavior. Particularly, by Hank Paulson who knew - fully knew and intended - that a significant part of what he begged for to 'ultimately help Main Street' was the exact opposite: it took from Main Street and gave to Paulson's friends. The man is dishonest a man as has held that job in this country's history - and now he'd like another few hundred billion, thank you. Most eras in history have ended with people like that being shot or hanged.