REIS: Commercial Real Estate Loan Defaults May Triple
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 12/22/2008 - 8:43am (163 comments)
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i prefer treble
Now that the economy is going to re-jigger itself, we might start treating our scientists right, and encourage them to stay in scientific fields, rather than becoming spreadsheet monkeys in financial firms.
Who beat America's space program? Not the Russians... Investment banking did.
After three+ years of writting property owners and developers free puts they just finally realized it. LOL!
yet more proof of the "recovery to happen in late '09" mantra we've been getting for the last few weeks is just full of shit.
BTW- Airports we're a ghost town on Friday.....walked right in with no line at 3pm....
Ciao
MS
BTW- Airports we're a ghost town on Friday.....walked right in with no line at 3pm....
MS | 12.22.08 - 12:34 pm | #
I'm flying XMAS day.... which is usually a ghost town anyway. I expect we'll be the only people there.
Eric, because most will be at salvation army hoping for a free meal....
Does this mean deals with cap rates of 4-5% are a joke...
I thought it was much easier for these folks to walk away since they don't live in their malls etc. Just declare BK and let the auctioneers sort it out.
Triple?
Another optimist.
As noted on Friday, SF rents have fallen significantly...now $3/sqft per month
they deserve a bailout
Windowdog its much easier when you didnt put any of your money down and arent liable for a nickle if you punt!
c&c I could never believe cap rates were as low as treasuries for a good peroid of time...
Then again it could be arugued that the USG and the Donald have about the same default risk.
BBB (at best)
...........
Maybe we can use the empty CRE to house the homeless and open the food kitchens...
Maybe we can use the empty CRE to house the homeless and open the food kitchens...
donna | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 12:49 pm | #
C&C and I are already scouting Bakersfield neutron CRE for paintball sites.
The pro formas from a few years ago were all bad jokes, based on an ever increasing pie size or outright fantasy world thinking.
The banks didn't care. If it penciled out, they put up the money.
Some of the construction loans never taken out by permanent financing are being shopped at 40% to 50% on the dollar and buyers aren't exactly lining up for the chance to bid (at least not yet).
Now the lenders have no idea what to do other than ask the government for their money back.
Let's see: I'll raise rents by 3% to 7% a year and never have more than a 5% vacancy factor and in 3 or 4 years I'll sell for a profit - yeah, that's the ticket.
Donna,
How about removing the glass windows and doors..the homeless, occasional skunk, some field mice, a lot of barn owls, swallows, possum and occasional coyote..a CRE noahs ark kinda of thing..
The rats are already taken care of by paulso
Maybe it's all a Ponzi Scheme?
Just called comcast and renegotiated my rate from 130/month down to $93/month (on principle, don't really need the money:) but I'm frugal). Sounds like they are getting lots of calls -- they were very quick to provide the discount.
Deflation: coming to a city near you
So if anyone wants to save a little money on the cable bill -- I suggest you give them a call. Very friendly!!
--
CNBC moron (Dennis Kneale): "Victims were complicit."
Yeah, women who get raped are comlicit too, you moron?
He is a cerifiable agents of the Crooks. Free market in media my ass.
Jas
my bad- should read..weak coffee...
How about removing the glass windows and doors..so the homeless, occasional skunk, some field mice, a lot of barn owls, swallows, possum and occasional coyotes could reside there....a CRE noahs ark kinda of thing..
The pro formas from a few years ago were all bad jokes, based on an ever increasing pie size or outright fantasy world thinking.
sportsfan | 12.22.08 - 12:55 pm | #
This reality has yet to filter down to the individual RRE investor. They all bought SFRs and either called them second homes with the idea that appreciation would cover expenses or they rented cash flow negative with the idea that there was rent pricing authority. There's another leg down here.
Two small deals, fully leased dev projects, cannot finalize the Const loan...ugh. The 6 caps were ludicrous, what? there is NO risk in real estate? I am paying my cap gain b/c I couldn't find a like kind that made economic sense. The prices must fall, but I hope my tenants can make rent.
C&C and I are already scouting Bakersfield neutron CRE for paintball sites.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 12:54 pm
Since some of the newer construction is still first generation space (no TIs), you should be able to find some real caverns to use for paintball.
crispy&cole writes:
Does this mean deals with cap rates of 4-5% are a joke...
LOL! You said it. In its own way CRE was just as moronic as the housing bubble. This too will end badly. The deals getting done in SF a couple years ago would leave me speechless. WTF was the world thinking the past 8 years?
Oh. my poor SRS. This great CRE news will certainly cut its price in half.
Does anybody know of a blog(s) that follow rental pricing on multi-unit apartments, especially on a metro basis?
In February the Oil Majors will ask for a bailout.
BTW- Airports we're a ghost town on Friday.....walked right in with no line at 3pm....
There's never a line at Teterboro
can confirm the 'reality' starting to grab hold in SF....restaurants had plenty of tables, CRE signs popping up like weeds...heard several people refraining from making big purchases (and arguing with spouses about it).
I just laughed to myself...
Ciao
MS
Does anybody know of a blog(s) that follow rental pricing on multi-unit apartments, especially on a metro basis?
JimPortlandOR | 12.22.08 - 1:09 pm | #
I don't know, but I'm asking for a 20% reduction on my current lease upon renewal. The leasing agent complained that that was "going backward on the lease". I told her: that's what deflation is all about, baby! (I left off the "baby" part).
They are considering the deal. They are supposed to get back to me with their counter next week (week after XMas). I will let you know what happens.
"Gavshire Hathaway writes:
Just called comcast and renegotiated my rate from 130/month down to $93/month (on principle, don't really need the money:) but I'm frugal). Sounds like they are getting lots of calls -- they were very quick to provide the discount."
I would urge everyone who's paying significantly more than the minimum to Comcast to try what GH has. They need your revenue stream badly.
Comcast's Internet business originated as a startup called @Home about 13 years ago, and I contracted there for a while. Back then, they estimated -- not for public consumption -- that they could make money on cable access at $15/month. Even allowing for inflation -- there's air in them thar pricing.
OT: Normally this time of year I start to look at AAPL options for the yearly Mac World pump and dump......two things different this year: Keynote speech (all the apple-tards watch with a fervor not seen for some time) is in dispute and the premiums for both sides of the trade (options) are ridiculous...the only thing that is close to reality are puts-the Jan. 75's.
Anyway...a sure fire revenue producer (for me each year) is decidedly less so this time around.
FWIW
Ciao
MS
Future SF paintball sites: (aka CRE links)
San Francisco Firms Continue To Shed And Sublease Office Space at SocketSite™
Doesn't Everybody Want To Work Here? (Class A Rents Plunge) at SocketSite™
Re : Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.21.08 - 9:25 pm | #
...about the current german elite...
Well you cast a too large net with your question, don't quite know how to answer that.
But I will say this : In Germany, in no way do you get screwed at every corner or with every "tool" available. Far from it, in general you can trust to be treated essentially fair and honnest . (I suspect it's quite simmilar to Switzerland; I hope so.) Of course there are power struggles and interest-groups, but that mad rush to make a quick buck by tricking or cheating is just not there (for 98%) . There still is some measure of social cohesion and e.g. the 2nd largest party (SPD) quickly brandishes bad things as "unsozial" (anti-social) with the not much larger leading party (CDU) being quite similar, just with significantly toned down spin.
The spread in wealth is also far smaller than in the US ! And I do see a bit less aggressive political partisanship than in the US as well.
Josef Ackermann seems not to be typical for the german elite, I think.
Entire Belgian gov. resigns over handling of Fortis.
Now that's leading by example.
The change we need.
Right, Hoopajoops.
Hub works for NASA. he's on a lot of teleconferences about the next space vehicle. It's beeing nibbled to death with not enough money.
People criticize NASA, but the are cutting edge stuff, and sometimes you fail when you try.
Meanwhile the Rovers are still roving away, miles from where they started, and years past their design lifetime.
About rents - I just had a tenant tell me she is moving out because she is working and going to school at night and she isn't getting a raise but tuition is going up. My apartments are high end and I always thought it was a bit much for someone just starting out (especially compared to the way I lived at that age) but I'm not expecting to raise my rents anytime soon either.
Tuition up. My health insurance premiums just went up a bunch (like every year). Food isn't getting cheaper. Beer certainly isn't cheaper. Deflation for everything except the necessities?
LOL ... I'm doing the same thing. When I initially inquired about my renewal (end of Jan), the leasing agent, said "don't worry, we aren't going to raise your rent again." I just started laughing into the phone, I couldn't control myself. I'm looking for 20% off as well, or I walk. There are many options for apartments and houses in Scottsdale.
@RockyR
I don't know, but I'm asking for a 20% reduction on my current lease upon renewal. The leasing agent complained that that was "going backward on the lease". I told her: that's what deflation is all about, baby! (I left off the "baby" part).
They are considering the deal. They are supposed to get back to me with their counter next week (week after XMas). I will let you know what happens.
RockyR | 12.22.08 - 1:13 pm | #
Re : Twilight of the Gods | Homepage | 12.20.08 - 4:24 pm | #
Twilight of the Gods, if you are still out there :
Your question enticed me to look again for a decent german blog (for me too) . Here is one which may be worth to be investigated, on the top level the quality seems decent :
Frank Meyer | TV & Moderation
Go to his blog. There on the top you find some more commentators.
I guess I will evaluate that blog myselfs.
Beer certainly isn't cheaper.
The beer revolt is coming. Like the Boston Tea Party.
[looking for my Indian costume and hachet]
Thanks, Werner.
"Does anybody know of a blog(s) that follow rental pricing on multi-unit apartments, especially on a metro basis?"
--JimPortlandOR
No, but check out the National Apartment Association:
National Apartment Association
They are calling for bloggers, starting a new blog.
Tuition up. My health insurance premiums just went up a bunch (like every year). Food isn't getting cheaper. Beer certainly isn't cheaper. Deflation for everything except the necessities?
\t 12th Percentile | 12.22.08 - 1:20 pm | #
Repeatiing: Increases in the things you need, decreases in the things you cannot afford.
Miami'
s airport traffic went up over thanksgiving and is poised to at least stay even for Xmas.
Airport guys pleasantly surprised.
Hey you freezing people, I planted a tomato yesterday.
And I had to put on a sweater this morning. Poor me.
Florida got over 100,000 new residentslast yea. Not good for water resources, but some hope of empty homes filling up.
I just emailed my entire family with Gavshire's anecdote.
@Bob Dobbs
I would urge everyone who's paying significantly more than the minimum to Comcast to try what GH has. They need your revenue stream badly.
Not sure where this originally came from, but it is amausing....
Former real estate bull admits, I spun Working for realtors, David Lereah was famously optimistic. Not anymore. By Donna Rosato As chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, David Lereah was famously optimistic. Now a private consultant, hes abandoned what he calls the positive spin. Q: Were you wrong to be so bullish? A: I worked for an association promoting housing, and it was my job to represent their interests. If you look at my actual forecasts, the numbers were right inline with most forecasts. The difference was that I put a positive spin on it. It was easy to do during boom times, harder when times werent good. I never thought the whole national real estate market would burst. Q: The NARs latest forecast calls for a slight increase in home prices next year. Thoughts? A: My views are quite different now. Im pretty bearish and have been for the past year and a half. Home prices will continue to drop. I think well see a very modest recovery in sales activity in 2009. But weve still got excess inventories, a bad economy and a credit crunch that will push prices down further, another 5% to 10% more. Itll take a long time to get back to the peak prices we saw in many markets. Q: Any regrets? A: I would not have done anything different. But I was a public spokesman writing about housing having a good future. I was wrong. I have to take responsibility for that.
Beer certainly isn't cheaper. Deflation for everything except the necessities?
12th Percentile | 12.22.08 - 1:20 pm | #
Here here, I'm still waiting for the return of $6 six packs! If anyone from Stone Breweries is reading this please bring this to the attention of your managers!
(Ruminations a tastey IPA is 14$ a sixer currently, so good but I cant stomach it at that price)
............
Poor Portland: snowbound! I was going to take the streetcar to Whole Paycheck for xmas groceries, since the streets are unsafe for cars (ice and snow, in layers). I haven't been out of the house in almost a week (when you are out of beer, you are out of luck).
Then all the streetcars disappeared from the real time map.....
Maybe some vacant CRE and condos swallowed the streetcars. heheh
Beer certainly isn't cheaper.
The beer revolt is coming. Like the Boston Tea Party.
[looking for my Indian costume and hachet]
JimPortlandOR | 12.22.08 - 1:22 pm | #
Except in California where the "nickel" tax is almost a sure thing and costumes are ethnically insensitive. Expect the Indian Nations to have their own "Tea Party" by asserting soverignty and entering the liquor business.
--
Werner, THANK YOU!
Whoever posted calling for reduction in service bills, thank you. I called DirecTV and they knocked down $10 per month. Hey, dollar saved is a dollar earned.
Jas
Bloomberg News
Marc Faber on Bloomberg -
If anyone from Stone Breweries
Yeah, right. Went to the one in Escondito a couple of months ago; the place was packed. They had casino tour buses supplementing the regular customer base.
Beer and gambling are recession proof.
GH,
I posted a few days ago about the same thing. My wife called Timewarner about our sevice. (We just moved apts.) They knocked 25-30$ off the bill and increased the download speed.
I get home and my wife is ranting about deflation!
(She does listen to me after all)
.....
Max I hear that alot. "Alcohol and Gambling are recession proof"
I've made some good money shorting them tho ;) I posted about shorting Sam Adams and a few said it was dangerous (it might have been but it worked out).
As for LVS and WYNN. That was just too easy. Ca-Ching...
(Like the slot machines)
......
The leasing agent complained that that was "going backward on the lease". I told her: that's what deflation is all about, baby! (I left off the "baby" part).
Great job, Rocky. Just wished you had actually said 'baby'.
--
Beer prices...
I only drink beer occasionally but keep 5-6 brands for guests.
I have been able to buy domestic brands, e.g., MGD, at 60-70c and imported (mostly Becks & Heineken) for 70-85c.
There are perenial Sales on drinks of all kinds. No inflation there to speak of.
Jas
and iyr is up more than %50,
52 week low was $23.51, today it was more than $37.
The hub buys whatever beer is on sale that week. There is always a sale on some kind of fairly good beer he likes.
(long-time lurker, first-time poster, be nice to me!)
There's a lot of talk about falling rents or renegotiating leases for lower rent, but I'm experiencing the opposite. We rent a house in rural upstate NY and over the years have become friendly with the landlords (who live next door). They are having to raise our rent, because of increasingly spiralling taxes, in order to maintain it as an "income" property. However with interest rates low and housing prices falling, we are at the point where buying would be considerably cheaper per month for us than renting. As dumb as it seems, we have begun looking.
It appears the rental paradigm is breaking down.
)--Mexican oil production slid by an average of 9.3% during the first 11 months of this year to 2.8 million barrels a day, reported state-run Petroleos Mexicanos on Monday
Cantarell, fell 31% during the period to one million barrels a day, accounting for most of the fall in overall production
--
"Gambling" costs...
A friend is booking us rooms in Las Vegas at $25 a night with $20 cuppons per day. We plan to go in mid-January.
With gas prices so cheap, it would be the cheapest Vegas trip in years if not decades. I am not into Vegas but only go for the company.
DEFLATION.
Jas
@Nades, et. al
I've also heard that the service reps at Comcast are comped based on how many cancellations they are able to "disuade". One of the tools in their arsenal are free upgrades. Free HBO, free Showtime, stars, etc. Some people in my office have mentioned negotiating for all of these channels for free. You just have to mention DirecTV and they will start throwing out freebies. Makes sense, as it doesn't cost them much/anything.
Given that I just negotiated price, I'll probably wait a couple weeks and then call back looking for free channels (I think it would sound strange to ask for a discount, and then request HBO/Starz/etc. for free). But this is the time to be ruthless.
Now I'm wondering what other services I might be able to negotiate. Cell service? Gym membership? Rent? Car insurance?
Gotta think big!
"Crispy Bait"
LOL!!!
There are perenial Sales on drinks of all kinds. No inflation there to speak of.
Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 1:33 pm | #
You aren't a careful price tracker if that is your conclusion. Eventually the three inputs to beer; grains, energy and transport will come down but for now all three are showing up in the consumer pricing.
As dumb as it seems, we have begun looking.
Buying a home in Upstate NY doesn't seem particularly dumb (depending on what part you're talking about); there was never any housing bubble there. Housing prices are now falling, but don't have very far to fall, as they were never overvalued to begin with.
Although if you're in an area infested with second homes for Manhattanites, the above may not apply. But west and north of Albany you should be fine.
Jas,
My wife and I, My Mom and Dad, and my sister and brother and law all got FREE rooms at the New Wynn Encore on Jan 19 thru 21. Plus they are giving us $150 cash credit to spend in their Hotel. This is a brand new Hotel!
I love recessions.
" JimPortlandOR writes:
Beer certainly isn't cheaper.
The beer revolt is coming. Like the Boston Tea Party.
[looking for my Indian costume and hachet]
JimPortlandOR | 12.22.08 - 1:22 pm | # "
Why don't you invite Werner and Gotterdammerung to your Beer Hall Putsch?
RD - you forgot the one imput for great beer! Hops! It spiked 12 months ago. Thru the roof. I havent followed it much since.
Jas - I agree with RD there has been a lot of inflation in beer. Believe me my sample space is much bigger than yours
No as for Vegas. We do some work there. Everything I've hear is its a f'in ghost town (seasonally adjusted) I'm not a gambler either but might book a trip!
(Does having a couple grand in the stock market make me a gambler, hummm....)
rcp_ny - it is common for rural places to have similar rents to buying prices. Just dont forget its difficult to get rid of a house, esp in rural areas. I dont know anything about your landlords taxes but I thought a lot of taxes were going down and not up.... (I didnt understand what you said about it being a rental vs owner occupied)
......
Housing prices are now falling, but don't have very far to fall, as they were never overvalued to begin with.
We shall see....we shall see...
" Jas Jain writes:
.... Hey, dollar saved is a dollar earned.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 1:28 pm | # "
Actually, it's better than that. In order to "save" a dollar, you need to pay taxes on it, drive to work, etc. There are those that speculate that in order to put a dollar in you savings account, you need to earn another 9 to account for this "overhead".
purchased my usual weekend Financial Times on Saturday; price has jumped from $1.95 to $2.50.
Ouch, looks like they have moved me to the online version from now o
Spent the weekend in Shallow Alto again. The Univ street area was amazingly quiet on Sat night and Sunday. Friends were walking around saying "where is everybody?" These are the folks who kept telling me that what's happening in sacramento could never happen to them - "... after all, we have Stanford!". I didn't say anything after that but biy was that hard >; )
For Bond Girl, should she appear:
BevMo! - Spirits - Scotch
purchased my usual weekend Financial Times on Saturday; price has jumped from $1.95 to $2.50.
Ouch, looks like they have moved me to the online version from now on
rot26 | 12.22.08 - 1:51 pm | #
Similar thing yesterday. Local rag went up something like 80% on the latest quarterly renewal. We wrote "cancel" across the bill. What are they thinking?
We shall see....we shall see...
Seriously... the pace of home price appreciation in Upstate has been absolutely glacial. People from other areas see perfectly good houses for sale here and wonder "What's wrong with it? Why so low?"
(answer: bad economy, snow, property taxes.)
But again, if it's any part of Upstate NY that downstaters have heard of, that may not be true. But there are a lot of places in Upstate NY that downstaters have never heard of. They're rather provincial down there.
I don't know, but I'm asking for a 20% reduction on my current lease upon renewal. The leasing agent complained that that was "going backward on the lease". I told her: that's what deflation is all about, baby! (I left off the "baby" part).
They are considering the deal. They are supposed to get back to me with their counter next week (week after XMas). I will let you know what happens.
RockyR | 12.22.08 - 1:13 pm | #
Invite them in - have lotsa packing boxes visible so as to suggest you aren't kidding. Hope they don't vomit right then and there - high stakes negotiating isn't always for those with weak constitutions.
In my head, as I drive around, I look at CRE and sort it into 3 categories.
The first is the never going to be finished.
The second is done, but never going to be occupied. Or was once, but is becoming empty.
The third is the finished, is at least 70% occupied, and will probably stay that way.
We were in DC late last night picking my daughter and a friend up from a concert at a club. The marginal areas that a lot people were sold as being an investment in an up and coming neighborhood are going to be really disapointed.
What's happening to the Nasdaq?..pull up.. PULL UP!
rent_to_own | 12.22.08 - 2:00 pm
Good post, and a couple of good points. One of the reasons I feel like, when asked, that I really can't say what political party I belong to.
Given that I just negotiated price, I'll probably wait a couple weeks and then call back looking for free channels (I think it would sound strange to ask for a discount, and then request HBO/Starz/etc. for free). But this is the time to be ruthless.
Gavshire Hathaway | 12.22.08 - 1:41 pm | #
GH -
I got HBO free for a year and STRZ for 6 months, by just chatting with the rep online. Did not even have to persuade them, just ask for offers in your area and mention that a friend got this deal.
(Ruminations a tastey IPA is 14$ a sixer currently, so good but I cant stomach it at that price)
nades | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 1:24 pm | #
Summit IPA for $7 in the Twin Cities - very drinkable but I prefer their Pilsner & Winter Ale's over IPA.
mal,
I'm not saying you're wrong -- I can't speak intelligently about upstate NY real estate. But my feeling is that bubble states have now corrected to be on par with most other regions. But we will now see across the board price declines to return to affordability. Thus all markets will fall in proportion to incomes. As incomes are similarly falling, real estate has a long ways to go.
The markets that didn't have big runups have been largely unscathed up until now. But they will still be hit hard from the ensuing broad based decline. I see another 15-20% decline for the national average -- at a minimum. I doubt that upstate NY will be unaffected.
Everybody should do this - in the last big recession (early 90's) I saw a few apartments stayed vacant in my complex, and the number of available units was growing at the rate of two per month. Since I was in a month-to-month lease, I called the management and turned in my one month notice, with a note saying that I was open to staying if they dropped the rent 15%. They got back to me the same day with a counter-offer of 10% less, plus an extra parking space for my roommate, if I signed a six month lease. I insisted that I would sign the lease only at 15% off - and they finally agreed.
My friends, who were in a lease, also did the same when their lease was up.
As a landlord in upstate NY I can assure you that all operating costs have skyrocketed in the past few years. Water bills, heat, taxes, reassessments, building permits etc.
You certainly can buy a nice house in many parts of upstate NY for a fair price compared to rents. But as someone mentioned above, plan on staying there for a while because selling them is not easy.
As far as the beer comments. If you like hoppy beer, prices are up. $10 a six pack for Victory Hop Devil. too bad it is so tasty.
The REIS forecast model peaks at 15.8% in 2010, not 2009 as the article snippet implies. The REIS model is driven by research analysts who are keeping track & estimating actual market transactions / lease signings. These forecasts are good during stable economic times, but may not be accurate now.
Torto Wheaton has a forecast model that takes into account macroeconomic change as well. The TWR forecast has vacancy peaking at 18.4% in 2011 under the base scenario, and 19.8% under the "financial spiral" scenario.
I'd expect the REIS forecast to increase significantly each quarter next year. Q4 snapshot numbers come out Jan. 19th (which is what the WSJ article used for Q3) & forecast / final number will be out Feb 2nd.
The great success of the civil rights movement was helping the college-educated Democratic elite to marginalize poor white people.
dryfly, the wife travels there for work. I'm going to tag along next time. I'll have to give it a try.
However with interest rates low and housing prices falling, we are at the point where buying would be considerably cheaper per month for us than renting. As dumb as it seems, we have begun looking.
It appears the rental paradigm is breaking down.
rcp_ny | 12.22.08 - 1:39 pm | #
That was always the case ONCE the bubble zombie died - it's the case here in rural Minnesota now too - you can almost buy for free IF you don't have to have a place on a lake.
dryfly
Another nice local for us, besides Summit is Lift Bridge, out of Stillwater. Had some on tap (the Farm Girl, a belgian style) Friday night downtown at a hipster place called moto-i. Drove through the slop and cold to get there. The place is notable as the only restaurant/bar to brew own sake outside of Japan. Great sake btw if you are into that sort of thing. And I was.
Boo hoo for them. The middle man service sector that imports 99% of retail product is not sustainable. Their projections were flawed because they ignored the "shot myself in the foot" factor. Visit a department store sometime- look at the tags and manufacturing declarations. Try to find something that's Made in the USA. It's the worst ever, and it's all converging on the economy now, because the home cash ATM machine is closed, and a 66% service sector-based economy is not sustainable when 66% of the economy depends on consumer spending.
rcp_ny - it is common for rural places to have similar rents to buying prices. Just dont forget its difficult to get rid of a house, esp in rural areas.
nades | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 1:47 pm | #
Thata's why they are so cheap...
--
Beer prices Can't argue with believers.
Have always had few brands of beer in my home. Which means that I buy them few times a year. Sometimes I pick them at Costco but mostly on Sales at local markets where I shop. At least 4 times a year, e.g., major Holidays, many brands are seriously discounted and that is when I pick some. My ex-Marine neighbor likes MGD in cans. Week ago, I picked 36-pack for $20.99 and that was close to the most I paid per 12 Oz of MGD. 24 bottles of Heineken and Becks for $18.99. But, it isnt much more than what I paid 10-15 years ago.
As I said, there are perennial Sales on drinks of all kind. Need to shop properly.
Jas
I am such a stupid asshole for having ever paid a loan back that I ever made.
You win again....lowest common denominator!
From Reuters:
It is estimated that airport traffic will be going up over Xmas. These people will not be traveling, but moving in to their nearest airport. Inspired by the Tom Hanks movie Terminal, these people will be living, eating and taking spong baths in the wings of our aviation terminals.
Beer prices...? I buy PBR for $7.99/12 and Schlitz for $6.99/12
@Vic
got HBO free for a year and STRZ for 6 months, by just chatting with the rep online. Did not even have to persuade them, just ask for offers in your area and mention that a friend got this deal.
Thanks, I'll give that a try!
How's it goin? Houses are selling like crazy in Western NY. I'm looking at a couple in the 65-80k range. Utilities are expensive- because we have to support all of those pensions ya know.
...my feeling is that bubble states have now corrected to be on par with most other regions.
Gav, the most desirable parts of So CA are still sticky. REOs are maybe 25% off peak. Sellers who bought before the run-up are listing at peak prices. A few flippers are still listing high.
We have a long way to go.
I gave up my Time Warner cable for 2009 as disinformation, propaganda and distraction is NOT worth $70 a month although I will miss entourage and some of hbo but that is why netflix exists.
We have a long way to go indeed. A buddy of mine won a bid on a house that sold for 365k in 2006- he bid 125k and then backed out due to how easy it was. This is in NorCal.
Anonymous writes:
What's happening to the Nasdaq?..pull up.. PULL UP!
A demonstration of what happens without the second $350B of the TARP?
Five years ago I use to buy PBR for 2.99$ a twelever! just say'in.....
" Gav, the most desirable parts of So CA are still sticky. REOs are maybe 25% off peak. Sellers who bought before the run-up are listing at peak prices. A few flippers are still listing high.
We have a long way to go.
Feckless Ness | 12.22.08 - 2:13 pm | # "
Same in Norcal. Yeah you can get what looks like a deal in Antioch or Brentwood or Watsonville or Modesto (but may not, a year from now). But the prime coastal areas haven't dropped to anywhere near reality. And that's where most of the "book value" is.
OT - back to the RRE world and from the SDSigns paper's article about 30% of area homes underwater:
"If you sell right now you're by definition either distressed or stupid," London said.
Fred Eckert, title rep at Chicago Title, tried to find the silver lining for the underwater statistic:
"On the plus side -- 70 percent are still OK," he said.
Another nice local for us, besides Summit is Lift Bridge, out of Stillwater. Had some on tap (the Farm Girl, a belgian style) Friday night downtown at a hipster place called moto-i. Drove through the slop and cold to get there. The place is notable as the only restaurant/bar to brew own sake outside of Japan. Great sake btw if you are into that sort of thing. And I was.
Sports Guy Lafleur | 12.22.08 - 2:10 pm | #
I'll have to look for it - ever try Rush River? From across the 'big water' near where I live... but more expensive than Summit (my everyday swill). And 'yes' I like saki - my future son-in-law is quite the connoisseur & has recently moved out here from NYC area - a bit of a shock to him to find out that were are almost civilized. That is a compliment from a New Yorker - I think.
The one thing about expensive utilities is that when the baby boomers start kicking the bucket, the costs should come down a lot. There's still another 30-40 years to go before that plays out though.
Mal,
I was online yesterday and saw 31 acres next to a state park listed for 38k. Less than 2 hours from Montreal. Ellsburg I think. Cheap when compared
to down South.
2 hours from Montreal to anywhere is a freezer in the winter.
Beer prices...? I buy PBR for $7.99/12 and Schlitz for $6.99/12
bob mologna | 12.22.08 - 2:12 pm | #
I made the corn syrup that went into those beers when in the ag processing biz. No one likes to eat from the kitchens they worked in - if you get my drift.
Approaching -3% on Nasdaq...
We are all leveraged high stakes gamblers now.
Wahh. The chicoms own us. Maybe we can buy some rope from them.
For silver bugs :
More Evidence of Manipulation
More Evidence of Manipulation - SilverSeek.com
dryfly,
I have some Rush River Unforgiven in my fridge. Full disclosre : I have some relatives from WI.
Along those lines, they brought over some New Glarus Apple Ale which was nicely crafted and a good variation on a cider-type ale. Interesting bew, and I guess it's a limited production. Told him I wanted more the next time he made a smokey and bandit type run across the border.
On the downside, my snowblower died yesterday. Engine basically tore up from the inside out. A nice Ariens model that worked well right up until the moment it didn't. Here's hoping deflation kicks in on that market.
Sorry for the last post, that was my first (and last) time posting through CR Companion.
flyingbrick | 12.22.08 - 9:07 am | #
flyingbrick, if you're still around, could you tell me more about this on the CR Companion blog (my home page)? Looks like some extra stuff was in the clipboard when you pasted.
Banker starts a trend...
HSBC banker found hanged in five-star hotel suite - Times Online
Damn... saw this headline on the NYT main page: "A Media star is born (and it's a Pig)".
But it wasn't the Mortgage Pig.
Surprising, the number of IPA drinkers on this blog. In Sacramento we have a pub/restaurant where customers essentially rent the facilities to brew their own (quality guaranteed). I bottled a nice dry-hopped ale y'day. Price was 7.70/sixpack equivalent, no sales tax, no crv. Rumor has it that there are only 3 such places in the US. I hazzard that there will be a future in the brew-your-own business.
Friends will be receiving the bottling results as gifts, this season.
I have some relatives from WI.
Sports Guy Lafleur | 12.22.08 - 2:30 pm | #
We all do - it's the dirty little secret that is hard to deny. Especially when they all show up with foam cheese replicas on the top of their heads.
Is the bearded pillar of stability going to do his santa claus impersonation and send the stock market vertical for christmas with mo free money ?
crispy&cole writes:
Banker starts a trend...
Times Online | News and Views from The Times and Sunday Times
tol...icle5380553.ece
crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 2:33 pm | #
That can happen to those who worship money.
"Is the bearded pillar of stability going to do his santa claus impersonation and send the stock market vertical for christmas with mo free money ?"
There are technically two "vertical" vectors.
re : rent_to_own | 12.22.08 - 2:00 pm | #
Ackerman is certainly the enfant terrible as you describe him and would fit perfectly into Wall Street, no question about it. I was just saying he seems not to be "representative" of the german elite (at least that is what hope) .
...However, Germany is full of political 'partisanship...
Of course there is a viable german "political landscape" with lots of bickering out there, but I think the degree of "political hatered" between the two main parties (CDU/SPD) is a lot less than between the Reps. and the Dems. (These two german parties appear to work decently well together in the current government.) You just do not have this large number of Germans calling the leaders of the opposite party on open air "an idiot " like you have e.g. on C-SPAN. (You have it on the extremist political fringes.)
...most Americans are arguing about the differences between the CDU Arbeitgeber (owners) and Arbeitnehmer (workers) wings, or northern German CDU and Bavarian CSU...
I do not understand what you mean here, coulds you please explain ?
Oh, and don't you have Greens? I think they are just not in any parliament.
Surprising, the number of IPA drinkers on this blog. In Sacramento we have a pub/restaurant where customers essentially rent the facilities to brew their own (quality guaranteed).
ChefVisar | 12.22.08 - 2:36 pm | #
Is this Brew-It-Up?
Was in Sacremento for a wedding a couple of years ago, and we hit that place at least three times.
Florida got over 100,000 new residentslast yea. Not good for water resources, but some hope of empty homes filling up.
Lawyerliz, your data is stale. 2008 was a disaster-- Florida lost population this year for the first time in a generation.
What an odd story, C&C. If the work being done on the apartment was enough for him to need a hotel room, why was it okay for wife and kids to stay behind? And if you knew strangers were going to find your body, wouldn't you want some clothes on? People who hang themselves are usually found clothed. Autoerotic asphyxiation would explain the nudity, but that wouldn't be intentional suicide.
"The senator and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, released income tax returns during her presidential campaign that showed the couple earned $109 million in eight years. Their annual income rose to $20.4 million in 2007 from $420,000 in 1999. Almost half of the Clintons income during those years, $51.9 million, came from the former presidents speeches.
Former President Clinton also was paid $29.6 million in royalties and an advance for his autobiography, and Senator Clinton received $10.1 million in book royalties and advances."...Bloomberg
Eric, Yes. Over 20 beers on tap, all their own recipies. No "commercial" beer sold there, although they have one of the better wine lists in town.
CRUDE CRASH CLAIMS FIRST MAJOR VICITM:
Bakersfield Bubble
DOWN GOES FRASIER
"Operations included in the filing cover about 250 travel plazas"
This is what most of you will know these guys from...along most major highways. Their refinery is one of the largest independet gas refiners in the coutnry
Peak Oil = bankruptcy....just saying
"I have some relatives from WI."
What an amazing culture change happens at the Mississippi / St Croix border!
my future son-in-law is quite the connoisseur & has recently moved out here from NYC area - a bit of a shock to him to find out that were are almost civilized. That is a compliment from a New Yorker - I think.
Dryfly, bet you've seen this before. But I always think of it when New Yorkers' view of the rest of the country comes up.
http://strangemaps.files.wordpress.com/2007/02/newyorker2.JPG
Big West/Flying J is one of the top 20 private employers in the US
Eric, Yes. Over 20 beers on tap, all their own recipies.
ChefVisar | 12.22.08 - 2:44 pm | #
Yup... the wedding reception was at a small botique hotel two blocks away, so we went there for dinner the night before the wedding, for drink in between the ceremony and reception, and then after the reception for more drinks and Chinese poker.
(Yeah, I can get my drink on, occasionally).
Flying J-
I always thought when I passed it on hwy 5 that it would be the perfect name for a marijuana coffee bar brothel in Amsterdam...
Flying J-
I always thought when I passed it on hwy 5 that it would be the perfect name for a marijuana coffee bar brothel in Amsterdam...
cd | 12.22.08 - 2:56 pm | #
Don't they operate Truckstops all over 'Fly Over'?
" crispy&cole writes:
Big West/Flying J is one of the top 20 private employers in the US
crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 2:53 pm | # "
Crispy, took a look down your blog and saw the latest on Gottschalks, thanks for that. I knew it was bad, but -- that bad? If they're down to selling a majority stake for $30 mill just to keep going, the game's pretty much over no matter what happens.
Have taken the southeast by storm. The gas station chain goes national...Flying Js and Sheetzes everywhere.
These are the End Times: Purple Squirrel Sighted in England.
I've been brewing and bottling my beer for more than a year now at a local brewpub. You have access to the boiling kettles, all of the ingreiants,
recipes from the helpful staff. I now am familiar with the milling, mashing, boiling with the additions of the many kinds of hops and malt extract. Then the finished brew gets the addition of the yeast and is put into the plastic fermenter and stored in a cold room before it is transferred to the ice box in the aluminum keg. It takes about two to three hours to brew, and three to five weeks before the finsihed beer is bottled in brown 22oz bottles, the size other contributors purchase when buyinng small brews like Stone Mountain. My brew got a thrid place, bronze, in the State Fair category for Hefenwietzen. My speciality is potent Barley Wine and Double IPA;they have a BAC from 11.5 to 12.5. Total cost per batch is fifty dollars, but you have to accumulate the brown bottles. I'll be making an Imperial Stout this week. You get about 72 bottles of 22 oz per batch.
Life is good, and it permits generousity with friends.
Announcement: Due to the stuggling economy "the light at the end of the tunnel" has been switched off.
Thanks for the link, Feckless. It is going to be really difficult to pick one!
OT-Dryfly--thanks for the link to Purchase.com video. Rail freight traffic down approx. 10% in November and so far in December, worst since records kept (1997).
Most of the companies I've been talking to are planning layoffs in January. Even some of the big ones out here in SV that have told people that they are not laying off anyone--at least that's what I am hearing. Could mean no net layoffs, just less here and more in India.
BTW: I made it to the MN State Fair this august. Awesome fair.
Dryfly:
I'm from NYC, wife from Rochester MN and relatives all over MN. What a culture shock! We laugh about it all the time; have "Fargo" parties every few years (even have the wood chipper). Now live in SoCal.
About CRE.
Is any bailout going to have a significant effect in the end? Or is this like the others - slowing the process, delaying or softening a collapse?
I'm hearing more frequent references to the unusual length of this recession. Are we making it more 'unusual' all the time?
only the great googlymoogly can help with a soft landing burnside
I'm buying a halloween zombie outfit and applying for tarp...
Zombie outfits like banks, auto manufacturers, Insurers, IB's and CRE developers seem to get the most candy...
Louie Sez writes:
...Announcement: Due to the stuggling economy "the light at the end of the tunnel" has been switched off...
But I thought that was the approaching train ?
the last train out was late in 06
Dryfly,
no more denny hecker around huh?
Why do car dealer owners who are not pretty throw thier face on every media ad? I dealt and sold him and his fixed ops guy last summer the real time service appt software...
Luther group is last big group in town..good people there..
I love MN in Summer...Too much of softy in winter..
Honest folks out there....
Werner -
'...most Americans are arguing about the differences between the CDU Arbeitgeber (owners) and Arbeitnehmer (workers) wings, or northern German CDU and Bavarian CSU...
I do not understand what you mean here, could you please explain ?'
Most Americans, even the ones that consider themselves liberals, are pretty much CDU voters, at least in German terms. That is, much of what the SPD believes is considered radical or leftist, not liberal. As for what die Linke think - there is no one in American politics that even comes close - but at least in the case of the former SED members of the die Linke, that is actually a good thing. However, to the extent that owners (Arbeitgeber) and workers (Arbeitnehmer) are distinct political groups with distinct political goals, the Republicans and Democrats fit that schema.
On the other hand, America is experiencing a real culture war/Kulturkampf, and though the CSU isn't really reactionary in American terms, the idea of a gay CSU party head is difficult to imagine (especially with the current German pope's views on the matter), compared to someone like Beust in Hamburg.
As for the Greens - they don't exist in American political terms, though they have served well as a strawman for all sorts of corporate interests, and their mindless/self-interested followers. Every environmental regulation in America is considered to be the work of the 'greens,' though amazingly, there are no Greens (Vermont, and a few places in the Pacific Northwest might be considered an exception - but then, Vermont has elected a socialist to Congress for a couple of decades).
The Greens have been built up into this vast conspiracy designed to keep America from reaching its unlimited potential, because the Greens are just not intelligent enough to understand that infinite growth on a finite planet is God's plan for happiness on earth.
In other words, the corporate media have done a fine job making sure that a Green Party like in Germany will be unlikely to ever grow powerful enough to make a difference.
And Green pacifism? That is rarely talked about at all in the U.S., except when referring to how stupid the Greens are to not follow the American program of bombing for peace while spending vast sums of money on weapons for defending democracy by invading other nations.
Like the moniker, Louis. Francophone humor.
Another bankster bites the dust. Love of money is the root of all evil. I love it but not more than life!
re : rent_to_own | 12.22.08 - 3:35 pm | #
Thanks for your answer.
As to the "...most Americans are arguing about the differences between the CDU Arbeitgeber (owners) and Arbeitnehmer (workers) wings, or northern German CDU and Bavarian CSU..."
I now see your point . You put basically both the Dems. and Reps. into (what I see as a single party) the CDU/CSU and shift the SPD out of the main political spectrum, while I see the SPD as the primary representative of the workers (and most unions) and the CDU's Arbeitnehmer wing as more as an worker oriented adjunct of the CDU/CSU. I don't think germans unions would think the CDU Arbeitnehmer flügel would be their home. Both, the unions and the SPD are "socialist" based, the CDU's Arbeitnehmer Flügel is civic- and christian-based (not sure if civic is the right word, bürgerlich I mean) , definitly not socialist-based. But as the CDU's Arbeitnehmer wing is much weaker than the SPD, I would put the owner/worker differentiation rather more into the CDU(CSU) / SPD rivalry.
The idea of a gay CSU party head is amusing: : downright unthinkable I would say .
... The Greens have been built up into this vast conspiracy designed to keep America from reaching its unlimited potential, because the Greens are just not intelligent enough to understand that infinite growth on a finite planet is God's plan for happiness on earth...
Do I sense that under this heavy coat of irony lurks a real feasible idea ? I would really like to see it.
It said the banker was in the insurance department. Maybe he was just garden variety depressed.
Heard it on NPR.
As to Fla population.
Blame NPR.
ChefVisar writes:
Surprising, the number of IPA drinkers on this blog. In Sacramento we have a pub/restaurant where customers essentially rent the facilities to brew their own (quality guaranteed). I bottled a nice dry-hopped ale y'day. Price was 7.70/sixpack equivalent, no sales tax, no crv. Rumor has it that there are only 3 such places in the US. I hazzard that there will be a future in the brew-your-own business.
ChefVisar - I'm in the Sac town area. What's the name of this place?
Chef - Never mind. Just saw the answer several reply's above,
Werner & rent,
I'd also say: there is no K Street in Berlin, or is there? To the extent as in DC? Or is it all done in the pub (sprich: Verein).
Joschka now works for Madeleine Albright's outfit in DC. I had noticed that when the financial desaster was brewing last year, evident for everyone who wanted to open his eyes, he was teaching in Princeton. I actually went to his website to see if he'd comment. He didn't. He still has clout in Germany and I hoped he'd wake up all these Landesbankers who speculated themselves into deep holes. Instead, he was quiet as a mouse. A few days ago he blasted Merkel for not giving enough billions to the patient. Is he some kind of turncoat?
rapunzel-
The Greens split into 'fundie' and 'realo' camps around the time that the Greens were part of the government and during the wars in Yugoslavia.
The fundies, who believed in what most people now consider to be somewhat extreme political positions - no bombing for peace ever, or the need to reorient our economy to be sustainable (importing organic apples from Chile is not sustainable, for example).
Fischer has been quite thoroughly co-opted. Another example is Rezzo Schlauch, who just happened to take a job with EnBW, which happens to be owned by EdF - basically the world's largest nuclear power conglomerate (excepting Japan's somewhat different structure). Green opposition to nuclear power is pretty much total - as it is in German society in general, at least until the question of storing nuclear waste is answered to an average citizen's satisfaction - but it seems like money is worth more than some abstract theory or principle.
You can always find people to sell out if the price is right. The Greens are no longer outsiders, and part of the price of becoming insiders was simply giving up many of those policies which seemed so impractical when the Greens were forming in the 1980s - the principles that won them power, actually, but principles which would make retaining power very difficult.
As for K Street? Different systems, very different systems. In part because the German system does not see such strict separation between different groups - in a sense that Americans seem to have lost sight of, problems need to be solved, not run away from, since at least in Germany, there is no where for the rich to build gated communities, and let the rest eat cake.