All, I'm working on a new commenting system with registration and ratings. A number of people have expressed their displeasure concerning the changing level of discourse in the comments. I hope to resolve this problem.
Me, with my retirement on Jan. 31, I intend to work to overthrow the Fed.
We have a terrible, corrupt financial system that has poisoned this country. Comrade-Dope jg (jg) | 12.22.08 - 5:29 pm | #
In context... Are there any organizations, think tanks or individuals who are putting their mind, power and/or money behind designing and establishing a new financial system? Or are we going to say that we didn't see that one coming either?
People who need to be mobile should be renters. Even in a sane housing market, brokers fees and other friction will cost you a bundle if you move frequently. I have heard it said that it takes seven years to pay off the friction with normal appreciation. For a lot of people, jobs typically last only five or six years. The "ownership society" never made sense for a lot of people.
You have to sell the house at the North end before you can buy the house at the South end...very common here where I live in East Tennessee...all realtors here have seen this in spades..
All, I'm working on a new commenting system with registration and ratings Calculated Risk | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 8:07 pm | #
THANKS!
Mobility for my peers, late 20s, doesn't seem to be the problem. It's the jobs. Once they're gone they don't seem to come back unless you take a huge pay cut. More anecdotes about wage/hours. My older brother is an engineer and he worked 10 hours Saturday and 14 hours Sunday. No overtime, just trying to keep business flowing. Private equity owners say almost no chance for a bonus because targets were only just met. Ouch. They bought the company 3 years ago to turn it around and IPO. It's actually a solid business, luckily they weren't able to cannibalize it. They stand a good chance of surviving because of huge maintenance revenue on their products.
I have the CR companion, and Im wondering if there is a way to 'ignore' posters by name. I see that there is a filer, but it seems to do everything except what I want. Is anyone uber-geeky enough with CRCompanion to offer any pointers?
CR, your efforts to provide for registration would be welcome. Keep up the good work that you do here!
CR, Registering all posters would probably improve quality if along with that you disallow name changes - And if posters who use insults instead of arguments are banned. One warning, and then banned.
If there is a way to block the silly "first" posts that would improve quality as well.
I saw some type of news article like this somewhere recently (within past week?). Lowest mobility in America since the 1960s or something.
Maybe this was in USA Today (I was on travel for the first time in months...). I wish my job would just relocate me since we are working on a long-term project requiring me to be there.
I have the CR companion, and Im wondering if there is a way to 'ignore' posters by name. I see that there is a filer, but it seems to do everything except what I want. Is anyone uber-geeky enough with CRCompanion to offer any pointers? RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 8:17 pm | #
Very OT: I use CR Companion on a PC at work and a Mac at home. The companion for Firefox on Mac expresses the refresh issue much more frequently and persistently than does the version of the PC. FWIW.
---
I've had this thought often about decreasing mobility. As wifey and I look for a house to buy (or a place to rent assuming current landlord doesn't play ball), we're looking for a place wherein we can live for a long time. I don't see where it's going to be very easy to trade houses at all in the coming decade... or more.
We moved around a lot in our 20s. Me thinks those days have passed.
To Bruce's point, contacts of mine in TN are complaing about the same thing. Retirees from MI and other midwestern locales were soaking up TN inventory. Now, with the meltdown in Detroit, prices are collapsing in parts of TN. Go figure.
Yeah. If you consider that it takes at least a 6% commission to sell an old house, plus a 6% commission to buy the new house, you need a lot of appreciation to break even on the move. That may work for someone moving from a coastal area to fly-over country, but everyone else's options may be limited. I don't know how CA companies recruit anyone other than renters.
Well perhaps one of the most extreme time/place of wealth disparity was under Czarist russia, and then people were tied to the land. Under W we have attepted to recreate the bygone days of the Romanov's in terms of distribution of wealth and income. We have become mortgage serfs.
I just had an old realtor who's been sending me listings on-line for Montclair, Berkeley Hills, Piedmont in N. Cali call me today. Some of the "fortress" areas that people on here argue ad nauseum how they're holding up well.
All I can say is that if a realtor tells you on the phone "Things are pretty awful, don't rush in to buy right now as we still have some downside." as well as "Everything seems to be a house of cards and I can't believe how fast it's all falling apart" then things have to be bad up here.
I hope this can for once and for all put to rest the it's different mantra in the Bay Area. When a realtor has seen the light then that really means something.
Okrar writes:
The key advantage of renting is mobility. Buy when you're ready to settle down and have the money.
I've seen statistics before (can't locate the URL) that indicate average stay in an "owned" house in U.S. is 7 years. When you factor in the costs of each buy/sell transaction (roughly 8-10%: realturd commissions + lender fees + appraisal/escrow fees + legal + advertising/staging, etc., etc.) why would do most Americans still choose to "own"?
It might make sense IF have a fairly stable job/small business AND intend to stay in place longer than average AND get a favorable enough price to tip the rent vs. buy scale. But for most people, I suspect the house owns them.
I have the CR companion, and Im wondering if there is a way to 'ignore' posters by name.
if you right click on the authors in the right pane, and mark them as "irritating", then change the second filter to "All but Irritating Authors", presto-chango - trolls are gone!
Excess inventory in housing would logically indicate greater labor mobility, not less, all else equal. We must focus on reducing transaction costs. Some are necessary, like those realting to the physical move. Others are not, like the financiers taking too big a cut from the pie.
"People want to go to where it's warm and where there are a lot of amenities, that's a long- term trend in this country," said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
"But people have stopped moving," he said. "It's a big risk when you move to a new place. You need to know that moving and getting a new mortgage is going to pay off for you."
Geez, but I think Mr. Frey needs to get out a little bit more. It isn't the problem of when you get to the new place, it is getting rid of the current residence BEFORE YOU MOVE that is the problem, DOH!
RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised(Unrated) writes: I have the CR companion, and Im wondering if there is a way to 'ignore' posters by name. I see that there is a filer, but it seems to do everything except what I want. Is anyone uber-geeky enough with CRCompanion to offer any pointers?
Sure, just activate the Hide/Show Filter Settings and set the author filter to All But Irritating Authors. When you are so inclined, rate the offending author as Irritating and, bingo, gone.
If there is a way to block the silly "first" posts that would improve quality as well.
Zephyr | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 8:23 pm
While you have the filter settings open, click Edit Banned Phrases and enter the phrase "First."
I'm guessing the last post drew a lot of interesting comments on the Bush Hoocoodanode release, but I just don't have the time to read 380 comments right now.
Meanwhile, registration wouldn't hurt the quality of the comments here, at least not until I got thrown off the island. )
Here's some perspective on why so many are downwardly mobile. Hint - you work and produce real stuff. Sadly, many of our wealthy do no such thing. Angry Saver | 12.22.08 - 8:45 pm | #
Think about that the while you are slaving at your job calculating things to 3 decimal points. Angry Saver | 12.22.08 - 8:45 pm | #
Man, I do.. all the time. It's a real productivity killer. It makes one want to see a revolution of a sort. At this point, I'm not even mid-career and I've about given up hope of jumping class. I hate complacency in myself... this feels more like apathy, which I hate even more.
I'm not sure why keeping e-mail address private would undermine the system. Patrick.net, tickerforum.org and other sites require registration but keep your email adress private and it seems to work fine. The biggest benefit is no spoofing of handles and you stick with the handle you create when you initially register.
I hope this can for once and for all put to rest the it's different mantra in the Bay Area. When a realtor has seen the light then that really means something.
Pissed Off In California | 12.22.08 - 8:31 pm | #
I'll have to admit, that is an unusual statement for a RE, are you their prospective client, or is this a friend passing you access to the MLS?
Again, not to sound redundant, but what I'm seeing here in SF is the
The rich getting fat and lazy is nothing new. That's the natural "business" cycle, and a flaw in "rational economic man" theory. Warren Buffett has no real motive to maximize profit margins. He may be a decent man, but eventually he'll want a pyramid for his tomb.
F*** it:
OnTopic: Don't companies still offer relocation packages? Might just need to ask them to pickup your downside loss on the sale of your home before you can move. I'm sure for the right job (any job?) people will use this as an excuse to walk away and start over in another place.
Uffish, I'm a prospective client who made it pretty clear in all our dealings over the last 6 months why I was holding out for a better deal. Perhaps this is why she was willing to be a bit more truthful with me.
OnTopic: Don't companies still offer relocation packages? Might just need to ask them to pickup your downside loss on the sale of your home before you can move. I'm sure for the right job (any job?) people will use this as an excuse to walk away and start over in another place. Uffish Thought | 12.22.08 - 8:59 pm | #
Our company was offering relocation packages, but they don't include any downside loss. As far as I'm aware ours was a pretty standard package.
I predicted this result over a year and a half ago in comments on various blogs:
Greenspan, who spent a lot of verbiage touting the flexibility of the American workforce, never addressed the impact that his ruinous policies would have on future labor flexibility.
It's hard to relocate when you're upside down on your mortgage, and mobility is critical to labor flexibility.
On the topic of fed policy, I have some questions for Greenspan...
If labor flexibility has allowed the US economy to weather the storms of globalization in a reasonably robust manner, would you say that increasing the cost of the nation's housing stock has enhanced or degraded this flexibility?
Would you say the burdening the current generation of first-time buyers with higher debt loads in the face of stagnant wages has increased their flexibility?
Would you say that your approval of the current administration's tax cuts has improved the nation's ability to deal with the retirement of the boomer generation?
I hope this can for once and for all put to rest the it's different mantra in the Bay Area. When a realtor has seen the light then that really means something. Pissed Off In California | 12.22.08 - 8:31 pm | # I'll have to admit, that is an unusual statement for a RE, are you their prospective client, or is this a friend passing you access to the MLS? Uffish Thought | 12.22.08 - 8:57 pm | #
I heard something very similar in TX this last weekend. The housing market here between $500k - $1M is in complete meltdown save in a few old-money, established neighborhoods. The $250k - $350k market is still very healthy.
When you reveal your e-mail address, how do you control it's keept private ? (and not sold off and you'll have no control at all anymore). Werner | 12.22.08 - 9:08 pm | #
Just keep one account for your regular correspondence and another for registrations. Say yahoo and gmail. One for private correspondence and another for more public/general correspondence.
CR, it would be sad to see comments filtered and suppressed while the economy worsens drastically, as most expect will happen. The motivation for that decision could be interpreted as political. This is unfortunate, considering that I personally wanted to find a blog to read and participate in that focused more on the empirical side of economics and less on the ideological-political side. This sounds like the data-centric focus of the blog is going to shift to more political content. Given the urgency of the crisis, it is understandable, but I hope that you do not abandon wholesale the focus on objective, empirical data analysis.
POIC, sounds like she is looking for a long term commitment from you, she'll give you the inside scoop now for your promise to buy from her later.
Friends moved from SF to Ventura county a few years ago, part of the relocation package included paying their mortgage here in SF until the property sold, an interim house until the new one had escrow closed and all moving expenses. Things have changed I'm sure.
Greenspan and Bernanke laud the flexibility of the American labor market, so let's try policies that increase labor flexibility.
How about outlawing non-compete clauses, and other labor-stifling contractual agreements? Like the one that says "if you leave the company, you can't contact your ex-coworkers for X years for the purpose of employing them at your new company."
After all, CEOs seem to profit quite handsomely from their high-level contacts and interlocking boards; why should the frontline grunts be barred from profiting from their contacts?
These contracts stifle the free market for labor and seek to protect companies from competition. Since open competition is what the market is all about, our friends on the right should greet these changes with open arms, no?
I suspect, however, that in actual practice, increasing competition is pretty low on the corporate priority list.
CR, I agree with Doc, it was a politically leaning story that brought out the poorly edited comments on the last thread.
I don't have a problem with registration or ratings, as along as I can still read the comments being made.
Please give us a second chance, we promise to be better, right?
I suspect, however, that in actual practice, increasing competition is pretty low on the corporate priority list. eightnine2718281828mu5 | 12.22.08 - 9:19 pm | #
Naw, in a nation run by monopolies? You don't say...
From my series of personal anecdotes which prove the main point.
About 8 months ago, I was offered 2 positions after 6 months on unemployment. The first was in IL, in commuting distance, the second in AZ. The second paid about 10% more, but with almost no moving allowance. Based on our previous home going into foreclosure, and the need to sell our current home, it made almost no financial sense to take the new job and try to sell the current house to move. If it took more than two months to sell our old home, we would have been so upside down on costs, and I don't want to think how having two successive foreclosures would look on a credit report.
Of course, we got to bypass warmer weather, and a rapidly dwindling water table, but, hey, there's no reason not to move.
Doc Radar: I love numbers and statistics. But an Economic or Finance discussion that ignores politics is useless. As Bob Dobbs would say, thinking you can remove politics from economics is an ideology itself.
Zephyr writes:
HARM, Historically, (with brief exceptions) the appreciation exceeds the tranaction costs of buying and selling for the average homeowner.
Zephyr,
Thanks for the response, but... didn't Robert Shiller prety much take a hatchet to that assumption with his 120-year same-house price history (Irrational Exuberance 2nd Ed.)? IIRC, he demonstrated that houses only appreciate a fraction of a point over general (non-housing) inflation. If so, then it would be mighty difficult for price/equity gains alone to outstrip background inflation for the 7 years of average U.S. homeownership --barring selling into a housing bubble, of course.
I'm not saying there are no other benefits to being a homeowner (remodel/renovate at will & reap any benefits, no "rent" hikes on FRMs, feeling "privileged" due to social bias in favor of ownership, etc.). However, real price appreciation in excess of transaction costs for anyone holding less than a couple decades sounds unlikely at best.
" MR writes:
I have the CR companion, and Im wondering if there is a way to 'ignore' posters by name.
if you right click on the authors in the right pane, and mark them as "irritating", then change the second filter to "All but Irritating Authors", presto-chango - trolls are gone!
MR | 12.22.08 - 8:44 pm | # "
I realize that it takes some effort on an administrator's part, but having a "report abuse" link seems to be popular on some boards. Perhaps a trusted user (but not me) could be assigned to review flagged posts, and remove posts or ban users as needed.
CR, I haven't been commenting much lately or had the time to read the comments. I can't imagine the comments are much different than they have been for awhile. Comments sections evolve, for better or worse. Registration is okay, but I think the Ken companion is sufficient for all who get irritated by a few commenters. I'm sure I'm blocked by a few, but, it doesn't hurt my feelings.
Yogi,
I blocked you after I saw that pornographic movie with Booboo, Cindi, you and the contents of the picnic basket. Not sure why I can still read your stuff.
Bubble area homeowners who bought 2003-2008, or who purchased earlier and ran up the HELOCs, and whose jobs require good credit least mobile.
Bubble area homeowners whose jobs don't require good credit, somewhat more moblie.
Nonbubble area homeowners who purchased 2003-2008 and from bubble areas 2000-2003, often constrained.
Purchasers from prior periods, usually ok. They will often have to take longer selling a house, but are not stuck underwater.
Renters from nonbubble areas. They can do whatever they want regarding moving.
Renters from bubble areas. These people are in the best situation. Often they are at companies who need someone to relocate, and other employees from their area are stuck in their homes/debtors prisons. The homeowners will turn down many of the good opportunities which require moving. The renters will say "Sure, sounds good.
If they are caught in layoffs, the renters have a far easier time moving as well. I once had a roommate where most of his furniture was inflatable. He could move within a few hours if he wanted to.
"A number of people have expressed their displeasure concerning the changing level of discourse in the comments. I hope to resolve this problem."
The squeaking wheels get the grease. Sorry can't go with the blog HOA. They trend to bring about like minded group think which leads to intolerance, close mindedness, and stagnation.
Chow.
I didn't think inflatable sheep and women counted as furniture.
Elvis | 12.22.08 - 11:38 pm | #
That is so bbbaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad
In the past ten years I have sold three nice houses in nice neighborhoods. Each time, the realtors made more on the house than I did. On two of them, I lost money - if home maintenance and improvement expenses were figured in.
However, money is not my main reason for owning a house. For me there is a spiritual component to owning land and a home, even if I only own a small fraction of it, with the bank owning the majority. Sure, there are sound financial reasons for doing cost benefit analyses between owning and renting. But for many people, the hope of permanence in owning is a value quite apart from practical considerations. I'll bet some of you have the same attachment to your portfolios and bank balances.
To the extent that labor mobility reflects employment opportunity, it is no surprise that what is shaping up to be a really long recession would lead to the lowest labor mobility in some time.
However, as the WSJ piece suggests, there is probably more going on that just that. The OECD (and others) have found in international studies that high levels of home ownership impair labor mobility. The comments here regarding the economic loss associated with trading homes helps explain that relationship. However, the US has been an exception to the rule. The US plot on the graph is further away from the regression line that just about any other. That is very likely the result of structural differences between the US and the rest. We have had ready access to mortgages, mortgage interest deductions, a weak pension system and high rates of immigration, among other things, which may contribute to higher levels of home ownership, relative to other factors such as mobility. Some commenters expect that we will simply return to the way we were, once housing prices stabilize. To the extent that the unique combination of high home ownership and high labor mobility in the US are the result of structural factors, a return to the past depends on those structural factors remaining the same. Let's see what regulatory change and changes in business plans in the financial sector bring before jumping to conclusions.
Hopefully, the mobility of illegal aliens out of the US is permanently increasing.
I actually passed up a job in Mountain View paying 100k because I couldn't sell my house 110 miles away. This was actually a blessing in disguise, because 100k is a bare minimum for that area, and the job would have sucked. In the end, I had to "sell" the house the foreclosure way. It's a popular way to "sell" a house in California these days. Now I'm in a position to buy an equivalent house in NY for about 1/5th the price.
in late 80's we had a similar house price recession. I was early 20's and in first job. I could not sell my flat for 2.5-3 years due to neg equity and zero interest from potential purchasers. I didn't at the time have 5-10K GBP to pay off against the house as I was only earning 20K pa and house price at purchase was 40K. Even if i dropped the price there is no guarantee Id have sold it. Eventually I got rid of it but during that time my lifestyle and job ops were limited to the commutable radius.....debilitating indeed and no option to jingle mail in the UK....I have lived the dream
If houses and rents are getting cheaper, shouldn't that make it easier for people to move?
First
It's okay, just stay where you are. Jobs are a coming.
Thank God, a new thread.
o surprises there... how can you move if you have to bring 50k to closing...
~e
Talbott nailed this one over 5 years ago in his book "The Coming Crash in the Housing Market".
Apparently the White House missed that one, too.
" JS writes:
Thank God, a new thread.
JS | 12.22.08 - 8:00 pm | # "
I second that!
Falling home prices make it easier to afford housing in the new location, but harder to exit the old location.
Then there is the matter of job security in the new job. People who have a job are less willing to change jobs during difficult times.
Could this article be retitled "Labor Mobility Forces Price Discovery"?
P.S. I really enjoy it when I make an on-topic comment and then some half-wit posts "FIRST!!!!1!!"
Does this make me a bad person?
"Does this make me a bad person?
Nemo | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 8:04 pm | # "
It doesn't take much.
I'm still hoping that a lot of people find mobility out of SoCal.
P.S. I really enjoy it when I make an on-topic comment and then some half-wit posts "FIRST!!!!1!!"
Nemo | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 8:04 pm | #
I don't get the whole "first" contest. I'll stop playing.
All, I'm working on a new commenting system with registration and ratings. A number of people have expressed their displeasure concerning the changing level of discourse in the comments. I hope to resolve this problem.
Best to all.
From the last thread.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) writes:
I'm flattered, G-.
Me, with my retirement on Jan. 31, I intend to work to overthrow the Fed.
We have a terrible, corrupt financial system that has poisoned this country.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) | 12.22.08 - 5:29 pm | #
In context... Are there any organizations, think tanks or individuals who are putting their mind, power and/or money behind designing and establishing a new financial system? Or are we going to say that we didn't see that one coming either?
People who need to be mobile should be renters. Even in a sane housing market, brokers fees and other friction will cost you a bundle if you move frequently. I have heard it said that it takes seven years to pay off the friction with normal appreciation. For a lot of people, jobs typically last only five or six years. The "ownership society" never made sense for a lot of people.
"The housing bust is now limiting this flexibility."
At some point we should see a "catch up" phase where people will finally make the moves that they were reluctant or unable to make during the crisis.
All, I'm working on a new commenting system with registration and ratings.
Calculated Risk | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 8:07 pm | #
Thank you, CR.
Nemo:
You have to sell the house at the North end before you can buy the house at the South end...very common here where I live in East Tennessee...all realtors here have seen this in spades..
CR, can you make the discussion threaded too?
All, I'm working on a new commenting system with registration and ratings
Calculated Risk | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 8:07 pm | #
THANKS!
Mobility for my peers, late 20s, doesn't seem to be the problem. It's the jobs. Once they're gone they don't seem to come back unless you take a huge pay cut. More anecdotes about wage/hours. My older brother is an engineer and he worked 10 hours Saturday and 14 hours Sunday. No overtime, just trying to keep business flowing. Private equity owners say almost no chance for a bonus because targets were only just met. Ouch. They bought the company 3 years ago to turn it around and IPO. It's actually a solid business, luckily they weren't able to cannibalize it. They stand a good chance of surviving because of huge maintenance revenue on their products.
I have the CR companion, and Im wondering if there is a way to 'ignore' posters by name. I see that there is a filer, but it seems to do everything except what I want. Is anyone uber-geeky enough with CRCompanion to offer any pointers?
CR, your efforts to provide for registration would be welcome. Keep up the good work that you do here!
The key advantage of renting is mobility. Buy when you're ready to settle down and have the money.
CR, Registering all posters would probably improve quality if along with that you disallow name changes - And if posters who use insults instead of arguments are banned. One warning, and then banned.
If there is a way to block the silly "first" posts that would improve quality as well.
I saw some type of news article like this somewhere recently (within past week?). Lowest mobility in America since the 1960s or something.
Maybe this was in USA Today (I was on travel for the first time in months...). I wish my job would just relocate me since we are working on a long-term project requiring me to be there.
Just don't ban "Down goes Frazier". That one never gets old for me.
Stay local because you can always get a job at Walmart or Home Depot.
Welcome to the new lower wage service job America
I have the CR companion, and Im wondering if there is a way to 'ignore' posters by name. I see that there is a filer, but it seems to do everything except what I want. Is anyone uber-geeky enough with CRCompanion to offer any pointers?
RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 8:17 pm | #
Very OT: I use CR Companion on a PC at work and a Mac at home. The companion for Firefox on Mac expresses the refresh issue much more frequently and persistently than does the version of the PC. FWIW.
---
I've had this thought often about decreasing mobility. As wifey and I look for a house to buy (or a place to rent assuming current landlord doesn't play ball), we're looking for a place wherein we can live for a long time. I don't see where it's going to be very easy to trade houses at all in the coming decade... or more.
We moved around a lot in our 20s. Me thinks those days have passed.
To Bruce's point, contacts of mine in TN are complaing about the same thing. Retirees from MI and other midwestern locales were soaking up TN inventory. Now, with the meltdown in Detroit, prices are collapsing in parts of TN. Go figure.
If there is a way to block the silly "first" posts that would improve quality as well.
Zephyr | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 8:23 pm | #
And here I was, a newbie, thinking this was the ubernerds having a bit of fun
Yeah. If you consider that it takes at least a 6% commission to sell an old house, plus a 6% commission to buy the new house, you need a lot of appreciation to break even on the move. That may work for someone moving from a coastal area to fly-over country, but everyone else's options may be limited. I don't know how CA companies recruit anyone other than renters.
Renting is the new "owning"!
Well perhaps one of the most extreme time/place of wealth disparity was under Czarist russia, and then people were tied to the land. Under W we have attepted to recreate the bygone days of the Romanov's in terms of distribution of wealth and income. We have become mortgage serfs.
reptillian, You really only pay one commission.
I just had an old realtor who's been sending me listings on-line for Montclair, Berkeley Hills, Piedmont in N. Cali call me today. Some of the "fortress" areas that people on here argue ad nauseum how they're holding up well.
All I can say is that if a realtor tells you on the phone "Things are pretty awful, don't rush in to buy right now as we still have some downside." as well as "Everything seems to be a house of cards and I can't believe how fast it's all falling apart" then things have to be bad up here.
I hope this can for once and for all put to rest the it's different mantra in the Bay Area. When a realtor has seen the light then that really means something.
Stay local because you can always get a job at Walmart or Home Depot.
As a bonus, they sometimes let you sleep in the parking lot!
I wonder how they're tracking this.
Florida is losing population though we have people moving here as well.
The net looks like only a few are leaving, though the tide in both directions is actually pretty strong.
Cash is the new (old) black.
We would actually be interested in returning to the West Coast if our house in GA weren't no bid, in stock market terminology...
As a bonus, they sometimes let you sleep in the parking lot!
Adornosghost | 12.22.08 - 8:31 pm | #
Furthermore...More than 100 million Americans breathe sooty air, EPA says
Stay local....the air is fine
Okrar writes:
The key advantage of renting is mobility. Buy when you're ready to settle down and have the money.
I've seen statistics before (can't locate the URL) that indicate average stay in an "owned" house in U.S. is 7 years. When you factor in the costs of each buy/sell transaction (roughly 8-10%: realturd commissions + lender fees + appraisal/escrow fees + legal + advertising/staging, etc., etc.) why would do most Americans still choose to "own"?
It might make sense IF have a fairly stable job/small business AND intend to stay in place longer than average AND get a favorable enough price to tip the rent vs. buy scale. But for most people, I suspect the house owns them.
CR
Thank you for the upcoming registration regime.
Just hope I get in the door...!
C
I have the CR companion, and Im wondering if there is a way to 'ignore' posters by name.
if you right click on the authors in the right pane, and mark them as "irritating", then change the second filter to "All but Irritating Authors", presto-chango - trolls are gone!
Excess inventory in housing would logically indicate greater labor mobility, not less, all else equal. We must focus on reducing transaction costs. Some are necessary, like those realting to the physical move. Others are not, like the financiers taking too big a cut from the pie.
Here's some perspective on why so many are downwardly mobile. Hint - you work and produce real stuff. Sadly, many of our wealthy do no such thing.
From the day that Columbus discovered America until the early 1970s, only $1 trillion of credit had been created.
The fed & treasury have created multiples of that in a matter of weeks.
In other words, the first 500 years of wealth creation in America has just been severely diluted (pissed on) to bailout the rentier class.
What a sham.
Think about that the while you are slaving at your job calculating things to 3 decimal points.
"People want to go to where it's warm and where there are a lot of amenities, that's a long- term trend in this country," said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
"But people have stopped moving," he said. "It's a big risk when you move to a new place. You need to know that moving and getting a new mortgage is going to pay off for you."
Geez, but I think Mr. Frey needs to get out a little bit more. It isn't the problem of when you get to the new place, it is getting rid of the current residence BEFORE YOU MOVE that is the problem, DOH!
RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised(Unrated) writes:
I have the CR companion, and Im wondering if there is a way to 'ignore' posters by name. I see that there is a filer, but it seems to do everything except what I want. Is anyone uber-geeky enough with CRCompanion to offer any pointers?
Sure, just activate the Hide/Show Filter Settings and set the author filter to All But Irritating Authors. When you are so inclined, rate the offending author as Irritating and, bingo, gone.
If there is a way to block the silly "first" posts that would improve quality as well.
Zephyr | Homepage | 12.22.08 - 8:23 pm
While you have the filter settings open, click Edit Banned Phrases and enter the phrase "First."
I'm guessing the last post drew a lot of interesting comments on the Bush Hoocoodanode release, but I just don't have the time to read 380 comments right now.
Meanwhile, registration wouldn't hurt the quality of the comments here, at least not until I got thrown off the island.
)
As usual, allowing prices to fall when houses are sitting empty benefits the "economy" by providing greater labor mobility.
HARM, Historically, (with brief exceptions) the appreciation exceeds the tranaction costs of buying and selling for the average homeowner.
Here's some perspective on why so many are downwardly mobile. Hint - you work and produce real stuff. Sadly, many of our wealthy do no such thing.
Angry Saver | 12.22.08 - 8:45 pm | #
Think about that the while you are slaving at your job calculating things to 3 decimal points.
Angry Saver | 12.22.08 - 8:45 pm | #
Man, I do.. all the time. It's a real productivity killer. It makes one want to see a revolution of a sort. At this point, I'm not even mid-career and I've about given up hope of jumping class. I hate complacency in myself... this feels more like apathy, which I hate even more.
re : Calculated Risk
...with registration...
CR, would you consider to accept users who want to keep their e-mail address private (under any circumstances)?
Werner, that would undermine the system.
Email should be required for registration but not made public.
I'm not sure why keeping e-mail address private would undermine the system. Patrick.net, tickerforum.org and other sites require registration but keep your email adress private and it seems to work fine. The biggest benefit is no spoofing of handles and you stick with the handle you create when you initially register.
Rocky R,
FWIW, I'm short vanity and long free time.
If time is indeed money, I've become quite wealthy.
The way they have trashed money really is discouraging.
POIC, I may have misunderstood Werner.
I interpreted his post as saying registration without revealing your email address to the site where you are registering.
I do agree that email addresses should not be publicized. I think that's pretty standard these days.
MR,
Thanks.
Not sure how I missed that. Long day I guess
I hope this can for once and for all put to rest the it's different mantra in the Bay Area. When a realtor has seen the light then that really means something.
Pissed Off In California | 12.22.08 - 8:31 pm | #
I'll have to admit, that is an unusual statement for a RE, are you their prospective client, or is this a friend passing you access to the MLS?
Again, not to sound redundant, but what I'm seeing here in SF is the
Damn HaloScan...
Again, not to sound redundant, but what I'm seeing here in SF is the
The rich getting fat and lazy is nothing new. That's the natural "business" cycle, and a flaw in "rational economic man" theory. Warren Buffett has no real motive to maximize profit margins. He may be a decent man, but eventually he'll want a pyramid for his tomb.
F*** it:
OnTopic: Don't companies still offer relocation packages? Might just need to ask them to pickup your downside loss on the sale of your home before you can move. I'm sure for the right job (any job?) people will use this as an excuse to walk away and start over in another place.
sportsfan, Zephyr,
I have never given my e-mail address to anyone except a very few personal, private contacts. Never ever.
So, if that would be enforced, I would say good bye.
(anonymous registration and rating would be ok with me).
Uffish, I'm a prospective client who made it pretty clear in all our dealings over the last 6 months why I was holding out for a better deal. Perhaps this is why she was willing to be a bit more truthful with me.
There are amenities in the desert?
WTF?
OnTopic: Don't companies still offer relocation packages? Might just need to ask them to pickup your downside loss on the sale of your home before you can move. I'm sure for the right job (any job?) people will use this as an excuse to walk away and start over in another place.
Uffish Thought | 12.22.08 - 8:59 pm | #
Our company was offering relocation packages, but they don't include any downside loss. As far as I'm aware ours was a pretty standard package.
re : Pissed Off In California
When you reveal your e-mail address, how do you control it's keept private ?
(and not sold off and you'll have no control at all anymore).
I predicted this result over a year and a half ago in comments on various blogs:
Greenspan, who spent a lot of verbiage touting the flexibility of the American workforce, never addressed the impact that his ruinous policies would have on future labor flexibility.
It's hard to relocate when you're upside down on your mortgage, and mobility is critical to labor flexibility.
link
On the topic of fed policy, I have some questions for Greenspan...
If labor flexibility has allowed the US economy to weather the storms of globalization in a reasonably robust manner, would you say that increasing the cost of the nation's housing stock has enhanced or degraded this flexibility?
Would you say the burdening the current generation of first-time buyers with higher debt loads in the face of stagnant wages has increased their flexibility?
Would you say that your approval of the current administration's tax cuts has improved the nation's ability to deal with the retirement of the boomer generation?
link
I hope this can for once and for all put to rest the it's different mantra in the Bay Area. When a realtor has seen the light then that really means something.
Pissed Off In California | 12.22.08 - 8:31 pm | #
I'll have to admit, that is an unusual statement for a RE, are you their prospective client, or is this a friend passing you access to the MLS?
Uffish Thought | 12.22.08 - 8:57 pm | #
I heard something very similar in TX this last weekend. The housing market here between $500k - $1M is in complete meltdown save in a few old-money, established neighborhoods. The $250k - $350k market is still very healthy.
re : Pissed Off In California
When you reveal your e-mail address, how do you control it's keept private ?
(and not sold off and you'll have no control at all anymore).
Werner | 12.22.08 - 9:08 pm | #
Just keep one account for your regular correspondence and another for registrations. Say yahoo and gmail. One for private correspondence and another for more public/general correspondence.
The physical mobility of labor is not all roses, of course. Chemical plant workers moving to Bhopal has hidden costs too.
Pissed Off In California writes:
...Just keep one account for your regular correspondence and another for registrations...
I see, thanks. (I hope I have/get two).
CR, it would be sad to see comments filtered and suppressed while the economy worsens drastically, as most expect will happen. The motivation for that decision could be interpreted as political. This is unfortunate, considering that I personally wanted to find a blog to read and participate in that focused more on the empirical side of economics and less on the ideological-political side. This sounds like the data-centric focus of the blog is going to shift to more political content. Given the urgency of the crisis, it is understandable, but I hope that you do not abandon wholesale the focus on objective, empirical data analysis.
POIC, sounds like she is looking for a long term commitment from you, she'll give you the inside scoop now for your promise to buy from her later.
Friends moved from SF to Ventura county a few years ago, part of the relocation package included paying their mortgage here in SF until the property sold, an interim house until the new one had escrow closed and all moving expenses. Things have changed I'm sure.
Greenspan and Bernanke laud the flexibility of the American labor market, so let's try policies that increase labor flexibility.
How about outlawing non-compete clauses, and other labor-stifling contractual agreements? Like the one that says "if you leave the company, you can't contact your ex-coworkers for X years for the purpose of employing them at your new company."
After all, CEOs seem to profit quite handsomely from their high-level contacts and interlocking boards; why should the frontline grunts be barred from profiting from their contacts?
These contracts stifle the free market for labor and seek to protect companies from competition. Since open competition is what the market is all about, our friends on the right should greet these changes with open arms, no?
I suspect, however, that in actual practice, increasing competition is pretty low on the corporate priority list.
link
CR, I agree with Doc, it was a politically leaning story that brought out the poorly edited comments on the last thread.
I don't have a problem with registration or ratings, as along as I can still read the comments being made.
Please give us a second chance, we promise to be better, right?
Right?
Hello, anyone out there?
I suspect, however, that in actual practice, increasing competition is pretty low on the corporate priority list.
eightnine2718281828mu5 | 12.22.08 - 9:19 pm | #
Naw, in a nation run by monopolies? You don't say...
From my series of personal anecdotes which prove the main point.
About 8 months ago, I was offered 2 positions after 6 months on unemployment. The first was in IL, in commuting distance, the second in AZ. The second paid about 10% more, but with almost no moving allowance. Based on our previous home going into foreclosure, and the need to sell our current home, it made almost no financial sense to take the new job and try to sell the current house to move. If it took more than two months to sell our old home, we would have been so upside down on costs, and I don't want to think how having two successive foreclosures would look on a credit report.
Of course, we got to bypass warmer weather, and a rapidly dwindling water table, but, hey, there's no reason not to move.
Doc Radar:
I love numbers and statistics. But an Economic or Finance discussion that ignores politics is useless. As Bob Dobbs would say, thinking you can remove politics from economics is an ideology itself.
Zephyr writes:
HARM, Historically, (with brief exceptions) the appreciation exceeds the tranaction costs of buying and selling for the average homeowner.
Zephyr,
Thanks for the response, but... didn't Robert Shiller prety much take a hatchet to that assumption with his 120-year same-house price history (Irrational Exuberance 2nd Ed.)? IIRC, he demonstrated that houses only appreciate a fraction of a point over general (non-housing) inflation. If so, then it would be mighty difficult for price/equity gains alone to outstrip background inflation for the 7 years of average U.S. homeownership --barring selling into a housing bubble, of course.
I'm not saying there are no other benefits to being a homeowner (remodel/renovate at will & reap any benefits, no "rent" hikes on FRMs, feeling "privileged" due to social bias in favor of ownership, etc.). However, real price appreciation in excess of transaction costs for anyone holding less than a couple decades sounds unlikely at best.
" MR writes:
I have the CR companion, and Im wondering if there is a way to 'ignore' posters by name.
if you right click on the authors in the right pane, and mark them as "irritating", then change the second filter to "All but Irritating Authors", presto-chango - trolls are gone!
MR | 12.22.08 - 8:44 pm | # "
I realize that it takes some effort on an administrator's part, but having a "report abuse" link seems to be popular on some boards. Perhaps a trusted user (but not me) could be assigned to review flagged posts, and remove posts or ban users as needed.
"I'm sure for the right job (any job?) people will use this as an excuse to walk away and start over in another place.
Uffish Thought"
The problem is there aren't any jobs.
Doc and Uffish:
What are you responding to in re comments?
CR, I haven't been commenting much lately or had the time to read the comments. I can't imagine the comments are much different than they have been for awhile. Comments sections evolve, for better or worse. Registration is okay, but I think the Ken companion is sufficient for all who get irritated by a few commenters. I'm sure I'm blocked by a few, but, it doesn't hurt my feelings.
Oh I see. My preference is for registration of names, preserving as much anonymity as possible.
The Federalist Papers were mostly written under pseudonyms, but they passed through an editor before being published.
Elvis I only block you when I laugh so hard it hurts.
Yogi,
I blocked you after I saw that pornographic movie with Booboo, Cindi, you and the contents of the picnic basket. Not sure why I can still read your stuff.
The only speech that has virtually no argument for protection is that fraudulently attributed to a third party, and we've had that problem here.
I could kill Hanna Barbera for selling that tape. It was chocolate.
I like comment systems such as Digg. You can "unclick" a post that's been downgraded and hidden, if you really want to see it.
It's rare to see a worthile post that has been buried, though. When there's a 2:1 ratio of nays to yeas, the post was probably inflammatory garbage.
yogi,
wow, +1 for the obscure Bhopal reference. what a tragedy.
Let's separate the groups out.
If they are caught in layoffs, the renters have a far easier time moving as well. I once had a roommate where most of his furniture was inflatable. He could move within a few hours if he wanted to.
"A number of people have expressed their displeasure concerning the changing level of discourse in the comments. I hope to resolve this problem."
The squeaking wheels get the grease. Sorry can't go with the blog HOA. They trend to bring about like minded group think which leads to intolerance, close mindedness, and stagnation.
Chow.
"I once had a roommate where most of his furniture was inflatable. He could move within a few hours if he wanted to.
some investor guy"
I didn't think inflatable sheep and women counted as furniture.
I didn't think inflatable sheep and women counted as furniture.
Elvis | 12.22.08 - 11:38 pm | #
That is so bbbaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad
In the past ten years I have sold three nice houses in nice neighborhoods. Each time, the realtors made more on the house than I did. On two of them, I lost money - if home maintenance and improvement expenses were figured in.
However, money is not my main reason for owning a house. For me there is a spiritual component to owning land and a home, even if I only own a small fraction of it, with the bank owning the majority. Sure, there are sound financial reasons for doing cost benefit analyses between owning and renting. But for many people, the hope of permanence in owning is a value quite apart from practical considerations. I'll bet some of you have the same attachment to your portfolios and bank balances.
To the extent that labor mobility reflects employment opportunity, it is no surprise that what is shaping up to be a really long recession would lead to the lowest labor mobility in some time.
However, as the WSJ piece suggests, there is probably more going on that just that. The OECD (and others) have found in international studies that high levels of home ownership impair labor mobility. The comments here regarding the economic loss associated with trading homes helps explain that relationship. However, the US has been an exception to the rule. The US plot on the graph is further away from the regression line that just about any other. That is very likely the result of structural differences between the US and the rest. We have had ready access to mortgages, mortgage interest deductions, a weak pension system and high rates of immigration, among other things, which may contribute to higher levels of home ownership, relative to other factors such as mobility. Some commenters expect that we will simply return to the way we were, once housing prices stabilize. To the extent that the unique combination of high home ownership and high labor mobility in the US are the result of structural factors, a return to the past depends on those structural factors remaining the same. Let's see what regulatory change and changes in business plans in the financial sector bring before jumping to conclusions.
Hopefully, the mobility of illegal aliens out of the US is permanently increasing.
I actually passed up a job in Mountain View paying 100k because I couldn't sell my house 110 miles away. This was actually a blessing in disguise, because 100k is a bare minimum for that area, and the job would have sucked. In the end, I had to "sell" the house the foreclosure way. It's a popular way to "sell" a house in California these days. Now I'm in a position to buy an equivalent house in NY for about 1/5th the price.
All I know is that I'm relieved that we will abandon the failure model called supply side economics.
in late 80's we had a similar house price recession. I was early 20's and in first job. I could not sell my flat for 2.5-3 years due to neg equity and zero interest from potential purchasers. I didn't at the time have 5-10K GBP to pay off against the house as I was only earning 20K pa and house price at purchase was 40K. Even if i dropped the price there is no guarantee Id have sold it. Eventually I got rid of it but during that time my lifestyle and job ops were limited to the commutable radius.....debilitating indeed and no option to jingle mail in the UK....I have lived the dream
" xxxxx writes:
All I know is that I'm relieved that we will abandon the failure model called supply side economics.
xxxxx | 12.23.08 - 8:42 am | # "
I didn't write this; another good reason for registratio