Let's see, when times are tough, they cut employee wages. When time are good, they increase executive pay and do their damnedest to keep employee wages low. Modern America.
No wage cuts here yet, but they are clamping down hard on OT. We stayed busy until late September, everyone is used to lots of OT. For some it is a relief, for others it is a major financial problem.
Frozen wages in Virginia - I went through that around 20 years ago. Considering how stingy the Commonwealth pays, I'm not sure that came as a shock to most of us at the time.
But this is what a deflationary spiral looks like - and it looks like it will get much worse in the U.S.
"We have to freeze wages, our hands are tied. The economy, y'know? Who could have known...., Anyhoo, if you don't like it, you are welcome to look for another job."
This move makes sense as it overall helps promote attrition, quiets the chronic workplace agitators and complainers and keeps costs down. It also increases productivity and paranoia, as those remaining on the job start to feel survivors' guilt as they watch unemployment numbers and listen to friends layoff stories.
i am seeing/hearing lots of "renegotiation" of IT contractor rates here in flyover.
also, for the FT staff, 401k matches being eliminated, pension plans being restructured, and the golden parachaute lump sum calc is being modified so the lump is 35% smaller if you didnt pull the ripcord in 2008.
...
In the face of these challenges, we must begin to reduce our expenditures now, in advance of significant reductions in revenue. I have met with the Deans and senior leadership, and all have agreed to be strategic and disciplined in reducing their costs. Because compensation - both salaries and benefits - represents the single largest expense in the University's operating budget (more than 52% of our total expenditures), each School and Center will implement these following University-wide actions, effective immediately and continuing for the next 18 months:
* Eliminate reclassifications of positions and in-grade salary adjustments. Any request for an exception (based on compelling circumstances) will require the approval of the Executive Vice President.
* Discontinue recruitment bonuses and discretionary bonuses that are not part of established compensation plans. No new incentive or bonus programs or new acting rates will be created during this time period.
* Fill open staff positions only if essential to the operational needs of the School or Center, or needed to fulfill the requirements of sponsored research. Continuation of existing faculty searches and initiation of new searches will be determined by each Dean.
* Reduce the use of temporary employees, including those on payroll and those employed through agencies.
While we are not implementing broad-scale layoffs, hiring freezes, or across-the-board budget reductions, individual Schools and Centers have the flexibility to implement additional cost-cutting measures as needed to create balanced and sustainable budgets. As we plan our Fiscal Year 2010 budget, we will moderate our salary pool in order to conserve resources and to preserve jobs. The senior leadership of the University - including Deans, Vice Presidents, senior officers, and me - will receive no salary increases next year.
...
less money into 401K accounts...less money flowing into the market.
ron | 12.23.08 - 9:51 am | #
Exactly what I was thinking. Wall Street is gonna have to work ALOT harder to get investors to invest. Less and less auto dumb money poring in each quarter.
Many employers are reducing their 401k matching. For those who at least contribute enough to get full matching, this is effectively a salary reduction.
Wage freezes even hitting high-end lawyers. I wonder how many of those junior associates made purchases in '08 assuming that they'd be getting another $15k in '09. For more fun, consider that those folks are going to feel like they actually got a pay cut for the first 8 months or so of '09 since as of Jan 1 they'll start paying payroll taxes again for the first time in 4 or 5 months. I know I'm not going to enjoy the $1k/month of extra tax burden between now and June. (FWIW, I'm fully expecting my firm to make a similar announcement before the middle of next week).
In my research into how private colleges survived the Great Depression, wage freezes and cuts were widespread. Even the state cut professor salaries by 50% at the depth of the depression, 1932.
Wages didn't begin to rebound until 1937.
Salary compression was also common - all faculty essentially got a living wage. One school paid what they could afford, and gave faculty IOU's for the rest of their salary - again years before the IOU's were paid off.
College president's salaries were 1-3X that of faculty. Administrators had diverse responsibilities, and most taught. Interesting times...
Don't worry. 8 hours a week and frozen wages are enough to stabilize housing, thanks to the fact that Obama is considering implementing Hubbard's 4.5% mortgage rate proposal.
This is deflationary. Deflation means an even stronger dollar in the near term, IMO. Fed and Treasury's initiatives only counteract a small fraction of the size of this bubble.
Who needs wages when one has home equity and credit lines, basically "free money" to create the illusion of wealth?
Um, wait a second. You just shut off my credit line? I have no more equity in my home AND I have to pay back the original equity that I took out to buy 5 flat screen TVs, a new car, and three luxury vacations? Nevermind.
Japans export crash is finally upon us, and this is the worst thing that could happen, said Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. The recession will be very severe as companies adjust investment, production and labor.
I have to say that despite being very pessimistic I keep getting surprises every day. Today the front page of my local paper has an article about how they are "haggling" at the local malls.
With holiday sales shaping up to be the lowest in years, possibly the worst since the industry began annual comparisons in 1969, retailers say they're taking consumers' demands for good deals seriously. Some are extending return policies, while others are matching competitors' prices. Many are volunteering on-the-spot discounts and even letting customers haggle prices well down from what's marked in a desperate bid to make the cash register ring.
"You'd have to be a moron not to ask for a discount," said Stephen Hoch, a retailing expert at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
Speaking of asking for a discount, thanks to everyone yesterday for the hint about calling your cable provider and asking for money off. $75 rebate from DirecTV just for asking.
I would hazard a guess that many small businesses will begin implementing layoff's, hiring freezes, no overtime policies, benefit reductions, etc. after Christmas is over into the New Year.
Small business owners are in more of a crunch than the mega-sized companies that dominate headlines, but probably have more of a caring heart not to start these until then.
--
Deflation is here to stay for a while as wages DROP after they freeze for few months.
Yes, wages can go down, rents can do down, hell, even housing prices can go down despite no more land being created. Lot more people are being created. And more housing units are being created.
Deflation has just started.
I LOVE DEFLATION!
And Crooks and dopes hate deflation. Only morons, e.g., Peter Schiff, were forecasting high inflation and hyperinflation.
Interesting - if that is a verbatim quote, the language is much more conidtional than previously - "could" rather than "is"... citizen energyecon | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 10:09 am | #
Well, Mark isn't exactly your standard raging rah-rah BubbleVision host. I think he was tossing a softball for his rah-rah guests to swing at.
At my workplace--large, prestigious, private university--we were all told not to expect pay raises as generous as in the past. Usually, it's around 3-5% no matter what. No change to our very generous matching 403(b) program. We feel very, very, very lucky--and I wonder how much longer the good luck can last.
Same with friends at other similarly situated universities.
Assume Crash Positions! writes:
And Zoom Zoom beat me to the punch.
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 10:06 am | #
My wife works at Latham and that's all I've been hearing about in the last week. She considers it a pay cut because of the previous pay schedule that called for a $30k increase in January. I told her that we weren't going to spend it anyway so quit complaining, but that doesn't seem to help.
Asset inflation, meet your new companion - wage deflation. I think the two of you will hit if off just fine, like two peas in a pod.
El Scorcho writes:
"I would hazard a guess that many small businesses will begin implementing layoff's, hiring freezes, no overtime policies, benefit reductions, etc. after Christmas is over into the New Year."
in my best Ed McMahon voice to Karnac: "That is correct, sir." Unfortunate, sad, and tragic - but correct.
The worst U.S. auto market since the early 1990s may force Toyota Motor Corp. to do something that was once unthinkable: cut its North American payroll.
Asias largest automaker, which hasnt shed workers in 24 years of building cars in the U.S., is exhausting options to trim costs after halting work on a Prius plant in Mississippi, idling a Texas truck factory for 15 weeks and planning to pare U.S. and Canadian output next month.
U.S. retailers will face a Darwinian fight for survival next year as they run out of cash as early as January and competition forces thousands of store closings, according to private-equity buyers and restructuring experts.
Probably 50,000 stores could close without any effect on consumer choice, Gregory Segall, a managing partner at buyout firm Versa Capital Management Inc., said yesterday during a panel discussion held at Bloomberg LPs New York offices.
The United States is massively over-stored in all categories, Segall said. He said his firm is in a wait mode and he expects banks to squeeze retailers after Jan. 1.
Plunging home prices, rising unemployment and tightening credit have led consumers to rein in spending, resulting in what may be the worst holiday season in at least four decades. Macys Inc., Kohls Corp. and other retailers have marked down items 50 percent to lure customers, eroding margins at a time when store owners hope to make a third or more of their annual profit.
Only retailers with healthy balance sheets will survive the recession, said Matthew Katz, a managing director at consulting firm AlixPartners LLP.
"My wife works at Latham and that's all I've been hearing about in the last week. She considers it a pay cut because of the previous pay schedule that called for a $30k increase in January. I told her that we weren't going to spend it anyway so quit complaining, but that doesn't seem to help."
I hear you. I'm due for a $25k increase as of Jan. 1. At this point, I'm assuming it ain't gonna happen. I'm guessing the announcement will come next week so as not to crap on everyone's Christmas. We had two substantial pay jumps in '07 when the big NY firms ramped all of their starting associates to $160k and most of the other big firms with any kind of NY exposure followed suit, even for their non-NY offices, so the truth is that we all got to where we should have expected to be as of 1/1/09 on 1/1/08. And I didn't have any real plans for the extra pay other than adding to my investment fund. That's not to say that I won't cringe a bit when I see the difference between my 12/31/08 and 1/14/09 checks.
ACP - It certainly feels terrible to lose out on money you previously expected to receive. I take comfort in the fact that thanks to this blog and others like it I have saved us more than we have "lost." And of course you don't pay taxes on money you avoid losing, which puts us quite a ways ahead of most people in her year.
At least you're on this blog - learn a thing or two and you won't care as much about that salary increase you probably won't get.
"The median sales price plunged 13.2 percent in November to $181,300, from $208,000 a year ago. That was the lowest price since February 2004 and the biggest year-over-year drop on records going back to 1968."
Alex writes: \tIt's not yet so bad at my place of employment, but then again we have a multi-billion dollar endowment. Alex | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 9:53 am | # ---- Good luck with the "multi-billion dollar endowment". Hopefully, your guys didn't go bonehead in their investments, or you can look forward to sharing space in the Higher Ed. food line with the likes of Harvard, Yale, and Duke.
Seriously, how much of your endowment is in illiquid assets? Do you know?
Schools with large endowments are, ironically, worse off than ones without, because the former pay more of their operating expenses out of that endowment rather than from other sources of income (such as tuition or patents). Endowments at major institutions I've seen have taken hits of 20-25% (far better than our own retirement plans, but still nasty). If 60% of your budget comes from a source that suddenly loses a quarter of its value, well... you do the math.
Well, my mom got mugged in her house yesterday, and she must have fought back because she has 10 broken ribs, after being knocked down the basement stairs in Balto.
So if anyone wants to know where I am, it's in Balto, and perhaps the civil unrest has started.
I live on the edge of sketchy, and have been mugged and burgled both within the past few years. Just last week I bought a taser and a home security system.
I Believe CR and Krugman writes: \t...you do the math. I Believe CR and Krugman | 12.23.08 - 10:38 am | # --- My back of the napkin calculation says that the 60% is cut by 15%. Mix in the other declining revenue factors, and you should have a nice, tidy budget cut prepared.
We aren't even talking about the bloodshed that 4Q08 or 1Q09 will bring.
sorry CR, OT, but it was discussed in earlier thread - see Pavel and move towards insect life... (I'm 12 hours ahead here so I'm always lagging
jump to last paragraph for conclusion-
Sphex wasps drop a paralyzed insect near the opening of the nest. Before taking provisions into the nest, the Sphex first inspects the nest, leaving the prey outside. During the wasp's inspection of the nest an experimenter can move the prey a few inches away from the opening of the nest. When the Sphex emerges from the nest ready to drag in the prey, it finds the prey missing. The Sphex quickly locates the moved prey, but now its behavioral "program" has been reset. After dragging the prey back to the opening of the nest, once again the Sphex is compelled to inspect the nest, so the prey is again dropped and left outside during another stereotypical inspection of the nest. This iteration can be repeated again and again, with the Sphex never seeming to notice what is going on, never able to escape from its genetically-programmed sequence of behaviors. Dennett's argument quotes an account of Sphex behavior from Wooldridge's Machinery of the Brain (1963).
Douglas Hofstadter and Daniel Dennett have used this mechanistic behavior as an example of how seemingly thoughtful behavior can actually be quite mindless, the opposite of human behavioral flexibility that we experience as free will (or, as Hofstadter described it, antisphexishness).
"Companies are trying to do things that are much more thoughtful as opposed to just, let's take 10 percent of the work force off,"
Yes, how "thoughtful" of them. Out of the goodness of their hearts, I'm sure.
Speaking of 401K matching, I know several people at a company that promised "2% matching" of 401K contributions. The usual interpretation of this is that the company would match, dollar for dollar, contributions up to 2% of an employee's salary. My friends were all surprised when their 401K statement showed that the company just added 2% to their contributions -- a measly $20 added to every $1000 that the employees socked away.
I have been thinking of learning how to use a firearm, but the local firing range seems to be full of crazy/paranoid Dale Gribble types. Not my scene. Reading of your mom's attack makes me want to go anyway.
Speaking of 401K matching, I know several people at a company that promised "2% matching" of 401K contributions. The usual interpretation of this is that the company would match, dollar for dollar, contributions up to 2% of an employee's salary. My friends were all surprised when their 401K statement showed that the company just added 2% to their contributions -- a measly $20 added to every $1000 that the employees socked away.
They should ask to see the Summary Plan Description (SPD) post-haste. The company is required by law to give it to them, and it must specify what matches are and how they are computed. Employers cannot make retroactive changes to an SPD.
wish her a speedy recovery from all of us..when something like that happens to a family member, friend or anyone, the greatest xmas present in the world is the gift of spending it with them....
So Smith is taking a 20% pay cut. Prior to forming Fed Ex Smith wrote a paper while a student at Yale. The Ivory tower professor was not impressed.
"The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C', the idea must be feasible." -- A Yale University management professor in response to student Fred Smith's paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)
Anonymous writes:
Japans export crash is finally upon us, and this is the worst thing that could happen, said Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. The recession will be very severe as companies adjust investment, production and labor.
could have a big impact on Southern Calif as most of the large auto companies have big headquarter staff in Torrance. Not only the daily staff might be impacted but company vistors from Japan fuel a nice travel business for hotels etc.
I myself was looking forward to doing some business with several next summer but will be lucky if anything happens now.
I have been thinking of learning how to use a firearm, but the local firing range seems to be full of crazy/paranoid Dale Gribble types. Not my scene. Reading of your mom's attack makes me want to go anyway.
flyingbrick
For home protection buy a .38, .357 or a .44 revolver. Easy as pie. Release cylinder, load, aim and shoot. Easy breakdown for cleaning.
I Believe CR and Krugman writes: Why would I want a gun when I can use a taser? Seriously.
Much more complicated legal situation after using a taser. User left with pissed off dude and fired one-use weapon. Better to just dump on the dude and apologize to the body.
If it's not compelling enough to kill the guy without serious qualms, it's not compelling enough to break leather with a weapon of any type. Leave the stunners to the cops, where they serve to slow you down so the two guys can hold your arms while the third officer hits you.
I just want to get away and let the police handle it. I'm not into vigiliantism.
flyingbrick writes: I have been thinking of learning how to use a firearm, but the local firing range seems to be full of crazy/paranoid Dale Gribble types. Not my scene. Reading of your mom's attack makes me want to go anyway.
The NRA has many fine courses with instructors in your area.
firing ranges attract people who are perpetually "into" the hobby. The only thing that makes the gun enthusiasts more deviant than the average crowd anywhere is the compulsion to gather in one place.
Imagine if CR was a coffeeshop -- would YOU want to hang around?
I'm employed by a large property and casualty insurer based in California. They have also announced that salaries will be frozen for 2009. Underwriting bonuses are under review. No company cars will be replaced.
LawyerLiz, best wishes for your mom. My thoughts are with you.
FlyingBrick, a good set of motion-sensing exterior floodlights is about as good a deterrent as a gun for night-time burglaries. Unless they have a compelling reason to hit your place, bad guys just decide to go somewhere easier.
Oh man, I have a next door neighbor with motion-sensed floodlights in his driveway. Every time a cat climbs over the fence it's Las Vegas in my bedroom. I cannot wait until he's foreclosed (he's a realtor) so I can buy that house and eliminate those lights.
And, yes, LawyerLiz, that story is horrifying. I've never understood how even criminals can be violent to old folks. I'm sure she could have been restrained without significant injury.
Bob, agreed. I installed six motion lights after the house was robbed a few years back. However, our yard is heavily wooded and I'm not sure the lights do anything except help the thugs find their way around.
lawyerliz, sorry about your mom. My 78-year old mom has a loaded .38 in her nightstand. It worries me a bit, but she is a good shot and has been familiar with weapons all her life. As far as non-lethal weapons go, I think that sticky immobilizing goo might be better than a taser.
He said his firm is in a wait mode and he expects banks to squeeze retailers after Jan. 1. This makes alot of sense. Make every attempt to capture Xmas sales and THEN drop the boom. It makes you wonder how bad the business climate will be Jan-Apr of '09. I'm guessing really really bad.
and don't forget the Governator's push for mandatory furloughs for California state employees - covers every state entity including courts, universities, transit, and utilities...and amounts to a 10% pay cut.
You are going to need to find a good rehabilitation nursing home before she gets out, most likely, unless she's capable of walking and lifting things (with 10 broken ribs, I'm guessing the later is out maybe minimum, and she'll probably need someone to feed her and wipe her for a bit). And get an airbed right off the bat if it looks like she will be in bed for a long recovery...it might head off bed sores. If she's still mobile and self-servicing after she's release from the hospital, count yourself and her very lucky, but maybe consider moving her close to you so you can check on her rehabilitation more easily.
And make sure the hospital doesn't miss anything...my grandma had one broken leg set and was moved to the nursing home before they discovered the other leg was broken too....she was crying out in pain, but they just assumed she was old and a wimp...didn't realize she was a tough old depression era woman who never complained about anything.
You are in for a long haul most likely...get organized for it...good luck.
reporting from the apparel sector here...assume crash position....bcbg laid off 200, survivors get a paycut of 6-10%....many more companies down the drain or circling it....
o way
way
I have reached the pinnacle of Nemo....
CR -- add the state of Virginia to that list. All VA state employees have wages frozen for this year.
Let's see, when times are tough, they cut employee wages. When time are good, they increase executive pay and do their damnedest to keep employee wages low. Modern America.
Considering that headline CPI YOY was about 4%, well that 0% raise was really a 4% paycut.
Merry f--king christmas.
At the local Home Depot, they cut all part-time workers to 8 hours. Maybe all Home Depots are doing that, I don't know.
Now, if only somebody could figure out a way to cook frozen wages, people wouldn't be so hungry.
No wage cuts here yet, but they are clamping down hard on OT. We stayed busy until late September, everyone is used to lots of OT. For some it is a relief, for others it is a major financial problem.
Frozen wages in Virginia - I went through that around 20 years ago. Considering how stingy the Commonwealth pays, I'm not sure that came as a shock to most of us at the time.
But this is what a deflationary spiral looks like - and it looks like it will get much worse in the U.S.
Disposable personal income was negative 4.2% in Q3, 2008.
Add in declining home values, a crashing stock market and exploding option arm mortgage payments and it's pain city.
We can bailout incompetent banks but not general prosperity.
Meanwhile on Wall Street........
crickets
less money into 401K accounts...less money flowing into the market.
"We have to freeze wages, our hands are tied. The economy, y'know? Who could have known...., Anyhoo, if you don't like it, you are welcome to look for another job."
This move makes sense as it overall helps promote attrition, quiets the chronic workplace agitators and complainers and keeps costs down. It also increases productivity and paranoia, as those remaining on the job start to feel survivors' guilt as they watch unemployment numbers and listen to friends layoff stories.
Time to join the military!
That should support home price gains for 2009.
anyone have a good natural gas etf to look into....
Thanks and Merry Christmas...
i am seeing/hearing lots of "renegotiation" of IT contractor rates here in flyover.
also, for the FT staff, 401k matches being eliminated, pension plans being restructured, and the golden parachaute lump sum calc is being modified so the lump is 35% smaller if you didnt pull the ripcord in 2008.
Merry Crisis!
Nationwide Pay Raise Freeze Watch: Latham & Watkins - Above the Law - A Legal Tabloid - News, Gossip, and Colorful
Commentary on Law Firms and the Legal Profession
BigLaw (TM) is freezing salaries as well.
It's not yet so bad at my place of employment, but then again we have a multi-billion dollar endowment.
This is an excerpt:
From: President Amy Gutmann (president@UPENN.EDU)
Subject: A Message from President Amy Gutmann
To: ALL-STAFF-EMAIL@LISTS.UPENN.EDU
Received: Wed, 3 Dec 2008 15:33:41 -0500
...
In the face of these challenges, we must begin to reduce our expenditures now, in advance of significant reductions in revenue. I have met with the Deans and senior leadership, and all have agreed to be strategic and disciplined in reducing their costs. Because compensation - both salaries and benefits - represents the single largest expense in the University's operating budget (more than 52% of our total expenditures), each School and Center will implement these following University-wide actions, effective immediately and continuing for the next 18 months:
* Eliminate reclassifications of positions and in-grade salary adjustments. Any request for an exception (based on compelling circumstances) will require the approval of the Executive Vice President.
* Discontinue recruitment bonuses and discretionary bonuses that are not part of established compensation plans. No new incentive or bonus programs or new acting rates will be created during this time period.
* Fill open staff positions only if essential to the operational needs of the School or Center, or needed to fulfill the requirements of sponsored research. Continuation of existing faculty searches and initiation of new searches will be determined by each Dean.
* Reduce the use of temporary employees, including those on payroll and those employed through agencies.
While we are not implementing broad-scale layoffs, hiring freezes, or across-the-board budget reductions, individual Schools and Centers have the flexibility to implement additional cost-cutting measures as needed to create balanced and sustainable budgets. As we plan our Fiscal Year 2010 budget, we will moderate our salary pool in order to conserve resources and to preserve jobs. The senior leadership of the University - including Deans, Vice Presidents, senior officers, and me - will receive no salary increases next year.
...
less money into 401K accounts...less money flowing into the market.
ron | 12.23.08 - 9:51 am | #
Exactly what I was thinking. Wall Street is gonna have to work ALOT harder to get investors to invest. Less and less auto dumb money poring in each quarter.
I know this and won't be convinced.
Freeze wages for the little people and give bonuses to CEOs for doing it. That's the American way!
Many employers are reducing their 401k matching. For those who at least contribute enough to get full matching, this is effectively a salary reduction.
20% off an already outrageous salary is such a joke. They're probably being paid in $50 gold coins worth $1000.
Here come the numbers.... I'll guess it's TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT!!!
An actually non-OT post from me:
Law.com - Latham's Salary Freeze May Launch Trend
Wage freezes even hitting high-end lawyers. I wonder how many of those junior associates made purchases in '08 assuming that they'd be getting another $15k in '09. For more fun, consider that those folks are going to feel like they actually got a pay cut for the first 8 months or so of '09 since as of Jan 1 they'll start paying payroll taxes again for the first time in 4 or 5 months. I know I'm not going to enjoy the $1k/month of extra tax burden between now and June. (FWIW, I'm fully expecting my firm to make a similar announcement before the middle of next week).
In my research into how private colleges survived the Great Depression, wage freezes and cuts were widespread. Even the state cut professor salaries by 50% at the depth of the depression, 1932.
Wages didn't begin to rebound until 1937.
Salary compression was also common - all faculty essentially got a living wage. One school paid what they could afford, and gave faculty IOU's for the rest of their salary - again years before the IOU's were paid off.
College president's salaries were 1-3X that of faculty. Administrators had diverse responsibilities, and most taught. Interesting times...
Don't worry. 8 hours a week and frozen wages are enough to stabilize housing, thanks to the fact that Obama is considering implementing Hubbard's 4.5% mortgage rate proposal.
We Have a Winner? « The Baseline Scenario
And Zoom Zoom beat me to the punch.
This is deflationary. Deflation means an even stronger dollar in the near term, IMO. Fed and Treasury's initiatives only counteract a small fraction of the size of this bubble.
Home prices didn't drop to zero...... GUN EM!!!!
Who needs wages when one has home equity and credit lines, basically "free money" to create the illusion of wealth?
Um, wait a second. You just shut off my credit line? I have no more equity in my home AND I have to pay back the original equity that I took out to buy 5 flat screen TVs, a new car, and three luxury vacations? Nevermind.
Mark Haines: "Could be the buying oppotunity of a lifetime".
Good thing he knows he's kidding. Too bad his guests don't.
Eventually, Bernanke's shenanigan will gain some tract and push CPI prices higher.
Why is it I think wages won't keep up. Perhaps it's that 30 year trend in declining real incomes.
That's the fatal flaw in all the Keynesian clap trap spending plans.
Mark my words, be it inflation or deflation (either is possible), the average working stiff will be worse off.
All this foolishness to preserve fictitious and ill gotten wealth.
Japans export crash is finally upon us, and this is the worst thing that could happen, said Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. The recession will be very severe as companies adjust investment, production and labor.
Eric,
Interesting - if that is a verbatim quote, the language is much more conidtional than previously - "could" rather than "is"...
I have to say that despite being very pessimistic I keep getting surprises every day. Today the front page of my local paper has an article about how they are "haggling" at the local malls.
With holiday sales shaping up to be the lowest in years, possibly the worst since the industry began annual comparisons in 1969, retailers say they're taking consumers' demands for good deals seriously. Some are extending return policies, while others are matching competitors' prices. Many are volunteering on-the-spot discounts and even letting customers haggle prices well down from what's marked in a desperate bid to make the cash register ring.
"You'd have to be a moron not to ask for a discount," said Stephen Hoch, a retailing expert at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
Speaking of asking for a discount, thanks to everyone yesterday for the hint about calling your cable provider and asking for money off. $75 rebate from DirecTV just for asking.
I would hazard a guess that many small businesses will begin implementing layoff's, hiring freezes, no overtime policies, benefit reductions, etc. after Christmas is over into the New Year.
Small business owners are in more of a crunch than the mega-sized companies that dominate headlines, but probably have more of a caring heart not to start these until then.
--
Deflation is here to stay for a while as wages DROP after they freeze for few months.
Yes, wages can go down, rents can do down, hell, even housing prices can go down despite no more land being created. Lot more people are being created. And more housing units are being created.
Deflation has just started.
I LOVE DEFLATION!
And Crooks and dopes hate deflation. Only morons, e.g., Peter Schiff, were forecasting high inflation and hyperinflation.
Jas
All cuts and freezing. Bloody cold Christmas.
Interesting - if that is a verbatim quote, the language is much more conidtional than previously - "could" rather than "is"...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 10:09 am | #
Well, Mark isn't exactly your standard raging rah-rah BubbleVision host. I think he was tossing a softball for his rah-rah guests to swing at.
At my workplace--large, prestigious, private university--we were all told not to expect pay raises as generous as in the past. Usually, it's around 3-5% no matter what. No change to our very generous matching 403(b) program. We feel very, very, very lucky--and I wonder how much longer the good luck can last.
Same with friends at other similarly situated universities.
Those housing numbers are just horrible. The bottom is ZERO for all the numbers...
According to Biryini Associates, since 1961, the average mutual fund investor has garnered annualized returns of just 0.5%.
Money (mis)managers.
UNG for natural gas - use the two front month futures ( I haven't looked up the weighting ).
-K
Assume Crash Positions! writes:
And Zoom Zoom beat me to the punch.
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 10:06 am | #
My wife works at Latham and that's all I've been hearing about in the last week. She considers it a pay cut because of the previous pay schedule that called for a $30k increase in January. I told her that we weren't going to spend it anyway so quit complaining, but that doesn't seem to help.
Not to worry - GREAT time to buy a home, according to a couple of hacks on CNBC!!! Buy, Buy, BUY!!!
Yep, that has happened were I work, but still have a blue collar job for now any way.
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues.
Asset inflation, meet your new companion - wage deflation. I think the two of you will hit if off just fine, like two peas in a pod.
El Scorcho writes:
"I would hazard a guess that many small businesses will begin implementing layoff's, hiring freezes, no overtime policies, benefit reductions, etc. after Christmas is over into the New Year."
in my best Ed McMahon voice to Karnac: "That is correct, sir." Unfortunate, sad, and tragic - but correct.
dd
The worst U.S. auto market since the early 1990s may force Toyota Motor Corp. to do something that was once unthinkable: cut its North American payroll.
Asias largest automaker, which hasnt shed workers in 24 years of building cars in the U.S., is exhausting options to trim costs after halting work on a Prius plant in Mississippi, idling a Texas truck factory for 15 weeks and planning to pare U.S. and Canadian output next month.
Doesn't look like this is going to help the government's plan for inflation.
Unless their plan was to inflate unemployment and poverty...
We also just had a department wide 10% wage cut, other departments will also cut payroll costs by 10%, although some will do so with layoffs.
U.S. retailers will face a Darwinian fight for survival next year as they run out of cash as early as January and competition forces thousands of store closings, according to private-equity buyers and restructuring experts.
Probably 50,000 stores could close without any effect on consumer choice, Gregory Segall, a managing partner at buyout firm Versa Capital Management Inc., said yesterday during a panel discussion held at Bloomberg LPs New York offices.
The United States is massively over-stored in all categories, Segall said. He said his firm is in a wait mode and he expects banks to squeeze retailers after Jan. 1.
Plunging home prices, rising unemployment and tightening credit have led consumers to rein in spending, resulting in what may be the worst holiday season in at least four decades. Macys Inc., Kohls Corp. and other retailers have marked down items 50 percent to lure customers, eroding margins at a time when store owners hope to make a third or more of their annual profit.
Only retailers with healthy balance sheets will survive the recession, said Matthew Katz, a managing director at consulting firm AlixPartners LLP.
This is a very Darwinian time, Katz said.
Jas,
Give me one example of deflation in a fiat regime.
We may get a mild deflation for a short time, but I just don't see it lasting. No way will Bernanke allow a deep and protracted deflation.
The best case scenario is mild deflation or mild inflation.
BTW, my recent move from intermediate treasuries to TIPS is suddenly in the black. It was free insurance.
"My wife works at Latham and that's all I've been hearing about in the last week. She considers it a pay cut because of the previous pay schedule that called for a $30k increase in January. I told her that we weren't going to spend it anyway so quit complaining, but that doesn't seem to help."
I hear you. I'm due for a $25k increase as of Jan. 1. At this point, I'm assuming it ain't gonna happen. I'm guessing the announcement will come next week so as not to crap on everyone's Christmas. We had two substantial pay jumps in '07 when the big NY firms ramped all of their starting associates to $160k and most of the other big firms with any kind of NY exposure followed suit, even for their non-NY offices, so the truth is that we all got to where we should have expected to be as of 1/1/09 on 1/1/08. And I didn't have any real plans for the extra pay other than adding to my investment fund. That's not to say that I won't cringe a bit when I see the difference between my 12/31/08 and 1/14/09 checks.
OT SRS question:
I've never seen SRS and the underlying index IYR both move down at the same time. Today they have. Anyone got thoughts on that?
I understand the normal erosion issues and how they can both go down over time, but I haven't seen it happen in real time.
Trouble in double shortville?
ACP - It certainly feels terrible to lose out on money you previously expected to receive. I take comfort in the fact that thanks to this blog and others like it I have saved us more than we have "lost." And of course you don't pay taxes on money you avoid losing, which puts us quite a ways ahead of most people in her year.
At least you're on this blog - learn a thing or two and you won't care as much about that salary increase you probably won't get.
NAR fesses up:
"The median sales price plunged 13.2 percent in November to $181,300, from $208,000 a year ago. That was the lowest price since February 2004 and the biggest year-over-year drop on records going back to 1968."
November Home Sales Fell Faster Than Expected - NY Times
Alex writes:
\tIt's not yet so bad at my place of employment, but then again we have a multi-billion dollar endowment.
Alex | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 9:53 am | #
----
Good luck with the "multi-billion dollar endowment". Hopefully, your guys didn't go bonehead in their investments, or you can look forward to sharing space in the Higher Ed. food line with the likes of Harvard, Yale, and Duke.
Seriously, how much of your endowment is in illiquid assets? Do you know?
Trouble in double shortville?
12th Percentile
Bizzaro. Double digit losses in my ultra-short ETF's at the open though the indexes either went down or were basically unchanged. No sabe.
Cramer last night raged on on the ultra-short ETF's. I hate to think that chump has that kind of pull
Schools with large endowments are, ironically, worse off than ones without, because the former pay more of their operating expenses out of that endowment rather than from other sources of income (such as tuition or patents). Endowments at major institutions I've seen have taken hits of 20-25% (far better than our own retirement plans, but still nasty). If 60% of your budget comes from a source that suddenly loses a quarter of its value, well... you do the math.
Sounds deflationary to me. China better look out, maybe we'll be taking their jobs.
On a previous thread rich pointed out that the ultra-shorts are all down today due to dividends. Nothing unusual.
Well, my mom got mugged in her house yesterday, and she must have fought back because she has 10 broken ribs, after being knocked down the basement stairs in Balto.
So if anyone wants to know where I am, it's in Balto, and perhaps the civil unrest has started.
She's 85.
LL, that's horrible. I'm so sorry.
I live on the edge of sketchy, and have been mugged and burgled both within the past few years. Just last week I bought a taser and a home security system.
On a previous thread rich pointed out that the ultra-shorts are all down today due to dividends. Nothing unusual.
Gracias.
Lawyerliz, sorry to hear about your mom.
I Believe CR and Krugman writes:
\t...you do the math.
I Believe CR and Krugman | 12.23.08 - 10:38 am | #
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My back of the napkin calculation says that the 60% is cut by 15%. Mix in the other declining revenue factors, and you should have a nice, tidy budget cut prepared.
We aren't even talking about the bloodshed that 4Q08 or 1Q09 will bring.
I am sorry Liz. God speed
sorry CR, OT, but it was discussed in earlier thread - see Pavel and move towards insect life... (I'm 12 hours ahead here so I'm always lagging
jump to last paragraph for conclusion-
Sphex wasps drop a paralyzed insect near the opening of the nest. Before taking provisions into the nest, the Sphex first inspects the nest, leaving the prey outside. During the wasp's inspection of the nest an experimenter can move the prey a few inches away from the opening of the nest. When the Sphex emerges from the nest ready to drag in the prey, it finds the prey missing. The Sphex quickly locates the moved prey, but now its behavioral "program" has been reset. After dragging the prey back to the opening of the nest, once again the Sphex is compelled to inspect the nest, so the prey is again dropped and left outside during another stereotypical inspection of the nest. This iteration can be repeated again and again, with the Sphex never seeming to notice what is going on, never able to escape from its genetically-programmed sequence of behaviors. Dennett's argument quotes an account of Sphex behavior from Wooldridge's Machinery of the Brain (1963).
Douglas Hofstadter and Daniel Dennett have used this mechanistic behavior as an example of how seemingly thoughtful behavior can actually be quite mindless, the opposite of human behavioral flexibility that we experience as free will (or, as Hofstadter described it, antisphexishness).
So Pavel, out with Free Will, eh?
LLiz,
sorry to read that, hope she is okay.
"Companies are trying to do things that are much more thoughtful as opposed to just, let's take 10 percent of the work force off,"
Yes, how "thoughtful" of them. Out of the goodness of their hearts, I'm sure.
Speaking of 401K matching, I know several people at a company that promised "2% matching" of 401K contributions. The usual interpretation of this is that the company would match, dollar for dollar, contributions up to 2% of an employee's salary. My friends were all surprised when their 401K statement showed that the company just added 2% to their contributions -- a measly $20 added to every $1000 that the employees socked away.
Ultrashorts had distributions today. SMN, at $69 yesterday, had a $26 short term gain distibution, sending the stock to the 40's.
Long time lurker and extremely occasional poster
Lawyer liz, that is a horrible crime done to your mother; I wish the best in her physical and mental recovery from such an attack.
And a violent end to the attacker...
lawyerliz
I hope your mother will be ok. That is simply a despicable act.
Liz, that's just awful, especially at her age. Best wishes to her.
To "I believe CR and Krugman"; don't bring a knive to gunfight.
I have been thinking of learning how to use a firearm, but the local firing range seems to be full of crazy/paranoid Dale Gribble types. Not my scene. Reading of your mom's attack makes me want to go anyway.
Hangman,
Why would I want a gun when I can use a taser? Seriously. I just want to get away and let the police handle it. I'm not into vigiliantism.
Speaking of 401K matching, I know several people at a company that promised "2% matching" of 401K contributions. The usual interpretation of this is that the company would match, dollar for dollar, contributions up to 2% of an employee's salary. My friends were all surprised when their 401K statement showed that the company just added 2% to their contributions -- a measly $20 added to every $1000 that the employees socked away.
They should ask to see the Summary Plan Description (SPD) post-haste. The company is required by law to give it to them, and it must specify what matches are and how they are computed. Employers cannot make retroactive changes to an SPD.
lawyer liz..
wish her a speedy recovery from all of us..when something like that happens to a family member, friend or anyone, the greatest xmas present in the world is the gift of spending it with them....
So Smith is taking a 20% pay cut. Prior to forming Fed Ex Smith wrote a paper while a student at Yale. The Ivory tower professor was not impressed.
"The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C', the idea must be feasible." -- A Yale University management professor in response to student Fred Smith's paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)
Anonymous writes:
Japans export crash is finally upon us, and this is the worst thing that could happen, said Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. The recession will be very severe as companies adjust investment, production and labor.
could have a big impact on Southern Calif as most of the large auto companies have big headquarter staff in Torrance. Not only the daily staff might be impacted but company vistors from Japan fuel a nice travel business for hotels etc.
I myself was looking forward to doing some business with several next summer but will be lucky if anything happens now.
I have been thinking of learning how to use a firearm, but the local firing range seems to be full of crazy/paranoid Dale Gribble types. Not my scene. Reading of your mom's attack makes me want to go anyway.
flyingbrick
For home protection buy a .38, .357 or a .44 revolver. Easy as pie. Release cylinder, load, aim and shoot. Easy breakdown for cleaning.
I Believe CR and Krugman writes:
Why would I want a gun when I can use a taser? Seriously.
Much more complicated legal situation after using a taser. User left with pissed off dude and fired one-use weapon. Better to just dump on the dude and apologize to the body.
If it's not compelling enough to kill the guy without serious qualms, it's not compelling enough to break leather with a weapon of any type. Leave the stunners to the cops, where they serve to slow you down so the two guys can hold your arms while the third officer hits you.
I just want to get away and let the police handle it. I'm not into vigiliantism.
10 min after I read this post, I got the freeze memo applicable to yours truly.
I guess we are all frozen now.
Liz, sorry to hear abt your Mom. I wish her a full recovery and hope they catch the animal who did that to her.
LL, I want to join the others in saying I hope your Mother is fine. That's a despicable act.
flyingbrick writes:
I have been thinking of learning how to use a firearm, but the local firing range seems to be full of crazy/paranoid Dale Gribble types. Not my scene. Reading of your mom's attack makes me want to go anyway.
The NRA has many fine courses with instructors in your area.
firing ranges attract people who are perpetually "into" the hobby. The only thing that makes the gun enthusiasts more deviant than the average crowd anywhere is the compulsion to gather in one place.
Imagine if CR was a coffeeshop -- would YOU want to hang around?
I'm employed by a large property and casualty insurer based in California. They have also announced that salaries will be frozen for 2009. Underwriting bonuses are under review. No company cars will be replaced.
LawyerLiz, best wishes for your mom. My thoughts are with you.
FlyingBrick, a good set of motion-sensing exterior floodlights is about as good a deterrent as a gun for night-time burglaries. Unless they have a compelling reason to hit your place, bad guys just decide to go somewhere easier.
Oh man, I have a next door neighbor with motion-sensed floodlights in his driveway. Every time a cat climbs over the fence it's Las Vegas in my bedroom. I cannot wait until he's foreclosed (he's a realtor) so I can buy that house and eliminate those lights.
And, yes, LawyerLiz, that story is horrifying. I've never understood how even criminals can be violent to old folks. I'm sure she could have been restrained without significant injury.
Bob, agreed. I installed six motion lights after the house was robbed a few years back. However, our yard is heavily wooded and I'm not sure the lights do anything except help the thugs find their way around.
This puts the 'D' on flation and pression.
We got the no raise memo last week.
This was expected.
5th year in a row they cancelled raises to grow market share.
Using the bogus US inflation numbers and not counting this doozy of a year, inflation has gone up 16% over that period.
Company stock is up 300% over that time, and the execs are doing well.
The message we got also said they defunded the pay for performance bucket for the next year, but will continue the program.
Same BS as we saw in the mid 80s. Must be the next generation of MBAs.
Guess we can call these folks Sons of...
lawyerliz, sorry about your mom. My 78-year old mom has a loaded .38 in her nightstand. It worries me a bit, but she is a good shot and has been familiar with weapons all her life. As far as non-lethal weapons go, I think that sticky immobilizing goo might be better than a taser.
LL All the best for your mom.
He said his firm is in a wait mode and he expects banks to squeeze retailers after Jan. 1. This makes alot of sense. Make every attempt to capture Xmas sales and THEN drop the boom. It makes you wonder how bad the business climate will be Jan-Apr of '09. I'm guessing really really bad.
and don't forget the Governator's push for mandatory furloughs for California state employees - covers every state entity including courts, universities, transit, and utilities...and amounts to a 10% pay cut.
lawyerliz, good luck to your Mom. Bromelin is a good supplement to heal bruises.
Lawyerliz:
Enjoy your posts. Best wishes to a speedy recovery for your mother. I hope the broken ribs didn't cause any lung punctures =[
This is a very Darwinian time, Katz said.
but Evolution isnt real.. we where created!!
))))
I like licking things.
CR,
You can add the Montgomery County. MD teachers' union to the list. They agreed to forgo a 5% cola increase, hopefully in return for no layoffs.
An 85 year old with broken ribs?
You are going to need to find a good rehabilitation nursing home before she gets out, most likely, unless she's capable of walking and lifting things (with 10 broken ribs, I'm guessing the later is out maybe minimum, and she'll probably need someone to feed her and wipe her for a bit). And get an airbed right off the bat if it looks like she will be in bed for a long recovery...it might head off bed sores. If she's still mobile and self-servicing after she's release from the hospital, count yourself and her very lucky, but maybe consider moving her close to you so you can check on her rehabilitation more easily.
And make sure the hospital doesn't miss anything...my grandma had one broken leg set and was moved to the nursing home before they discovered the other leg was broken too....she was crying out in pain, but they just assumed she was old and a wimp...didn't realize she was a tough old depression era woman who never complained about anything.
You are in for a long haul most likely...get organized for it...good luck.
It's just what the global corporations want...3rd world wages. We just need to cut them another 99% and we will be there!
lawyer liz:
So many of us with elderly parents empathize, and others too. I wish you both well.
ll-sorry to hear, hoping for the best.
reporting from the apparel sector here...assume crash position....bcbg laid off 200, survivors get a paycut of 6-10%....many more companies down the drain or circling it....