"It is a little unusual for supply to increase in November (from October), and looking forward, usually supply falls sharply in December as homeowners take their properties off the market for the holidays. Something to watch for next month."
"The business of America is business." Wall Street Lobbyist, ca. 2005 (note similar lack of foresight shown by Calvin Coolidge at a similar time in history).
"The business of government is bailing out business." Barack Obama.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected a decline. âThe quickly deteriorating conditions in the job market, stock market, and consumer confidence in October and November have knocked down home sales to another level.
This is true. It gets to be real scary time when even the NAR blind squirell finds a nut. What we've had up until now has been only a speculative blow off. The NAR has for the last two years held onto the rubrick that housing doesn't decline until the gereral economy and employment fall first. This time was different. It is only just now that the usual suspects (economy & employment) are becoming a force and thanks to an inept government we are still dealing with the speculative blow off so we can now expect an even more severe rcession and deeper housing losses.
"
I want to hear more stories about the douchebags who gloated for years and years about how well they were doing in their "exclusive fund".
Eric | 12.23.08 - 11:08 am | # "
--
"The "business of America is business." - Calvin Coolidge The "business of America is government." - Barak Obama"
Rob Dawg,
The real business of American govt and corporations, or "business," is deception, fraud and manipulation.
In order to make that possible and sustainable it became necessary to BREED DOPES and many of them into morally bankrupt dopes, e.g., those who voted to re-elect Bush, Jr., and still defend him.
The real story of America is: Crooks and Dopes. The rest are merely the details.
Rob Dawg writes: Repeating my earler comment. Even a cursory glance at the graph shows that much of the old seasonality has been removed from the sales trends. I assert that the raw data are indicating a far worse sales market than the SAAR.
Rob, you'll have to explain this comment, because I thought just the opposite. To me, the seasonality is clearly present when I account for a sloping baseline, i.e. a general trend towards lessening demand. To see the seasonality of sales, I estimated the values in CR's graph and then added back a time dependent term (actual value + time*k) and saw pretty good seasonality using k=1.5 and t=1, 2, 3 for each month. Am I missing something?
Anonymous writes:
What genius decided to move Kudlow to The Call?
Kudlow is a complete idiot ..My guess is that they needed some more of that "mustard seed" talk now that the "drill drill drill" doesn't mean anything any more
"CXO found that Cramer's stock market predictions (monitored from 2000 onward) were worse than average and even worse than simply flipping a coin. Cramer's prognostications fared better than the market averages only 47 percent of the time. Regarding Cramer's predictions, CXO comments that, "His predictions sometimes swing dramatically from optimistic to pessimistic, and back again, over short periods. It is difficult to infer his guiding valuation theory, if he has one. We wonder whether he tends to be swayed by the arguments of forceful advocates with whom he most recently interacted...He seems more a stream of uncalibrated opinion than a stock market maven.""
CR quoted again. Soon we will see the man behind the curtain on Bloomberg
December 12th, 2008
The folks at Calculated Risk have put together a nice summary of a lot of the points that weve mentioned in this blog. Ive excerpted it whole. The summary: malls and retail = bad investments right now.
This post is a summary of recent commercial real estate (CRE) data suggesting that investment in non-residential real estate will decline sharply over the next several quarters.
Note: There is another problem with CRE too (not discussed here) - many existing properties were recently purchased at prices that were based on overly optimistic pro forma income projections. These loans typically included reserves to pay interest until rents increased (like a negatively amortizing option ARM), and it is likely that many of these deals will blow up when the interest reserve is depleted - probably in the 2009-2010 period.
Historically investment in non-residential structures lags investment in residential by 5 to 8 quarters. The reasons are pretty clear - the commercial builders (for malls, offices, lodging, etc.) usually build after they see the rooftops, i.e. the residential is in place.
It appears the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) bust has started. Here is a summary of recent data:
Ya', those charities are such pricks /snark xxxxx | 12.23.08 - 11:12 am | #
They weren't the ones "gloating". That's the difference. I'm talking about the guys showing up at the country club, dissing everyone else's investments, and saying how great Madoff was, but "sorry, you can't invest...."
I mentioned a few weeks back that we had put an offer on a house. Well, apparently a better offer came along and the house is now pending. I remain a renter.
My search is limited to a very small area for school/work/family reasons. But if this house does close, it will be just the second sale in the last six months in what I consider the upper end of the neighboorhood. 8-10 houses in this price range went unsold over the last six months- either turned into rentals or owners just decided the offers weren't right.
Rob, you'll have to explain this comment, because I thought just the opposite. To me, the seasonality is clearly present when I account for a sloping baseline, i.e. a general trend towards lessening demand. To see the seasonality of sales, I estimated the values in CR's graph and then added back a time dependent term (actual value + time*k) and saw pretty good seasonality using k=1.5 and t=1, 2, 3 for each month. Am I missing something?
Curious | 12.23.08 - 11:13 am | #
Take the range Q1, compare 2005 and 2008. 2005: 93, 109, 127 2008: 44, 49, 50 See? Far less seasonality. And that makes snese. There will always be sales. Estate, job transfers, divorce, medical and lifestyle. They don't exhibit as much seasonality. They are a larger portion of what sales are being recorded. SAAR in thses circumstances understates in traditionally busy months and overstates in slower months, like November.
I think the only high priced home to sale in my area was the one sold to Bush and he paid top dollar. However, when he sells Tom Hicks will likely buy it to expand his property which borders it and pay Bush a handsome price for it.
Seriously? Fuck the charities. Most of them are "make work" employment using the funds of donors to give themselves free money. Why give if 90% of the giving is eaten up by administrative costs?
I was in Wells Fargo the other day doing a wire transfer to buy a house ($20,000 REO) and asked the bank manager why they aren't posting local foreclosures on their website anymore. He told me they had stopped marketing their foreclosed houses for the time being because the market was so weak. Anecdotal, so take it for what it's worth. They did offer me a free stuffed pony if I'd open a personal account though...
To me, the most amazing Madoff investor story was the guy who had $8 Million life savings and put it all with Madoff. I feel bad for the guy, but can you say "divserification"? You'd better, expecially if you can't say "due diligence".
Eric writes: I want to hear more stories about the douchebags who gloated for years and years about how well they were doing in their "exclusive fund".
I have to agree. I remember a snatch of conversation at a job site -- can't recall which now -- where some upwardly mobile chickie with too much beauty product on was going on that they were in a responsible investment fund with Bono.
I wonder how she's feeling right now. It was hard to not be like "I wonder how well Bono was compensated. Do you think he favors fixed income?"
She would not have gotten it and it sounded like an equity / direct placement fund. =)
Lawrence Yun, the normally upbeat chief economist of the Realtors group, found few positive spots in the month's dismal data. But he did note that after prior stock market crashes home sales usually rebounded within a few months.
"We hope that, similarly, the current slowdown in home sales activity is a short-term phenomenon," Yun said, noting that people in the real estate industry are "crossing our fingers" that the market will recover. Sales fell around the country, with the largest drop -- of 12 percent -- in the Northeast.
"Why give if 90% of the giving is eaten up by administrative costs?"
Amazingly there are many charities that actually do spend the majority of their money on overhead and fundraising. I have actually seen 90% expense ratios in some charity financial disclosure info. Shocking to think that only 10% of your donation goes to the intended purpose.
I grew up with a kid named brodsky. There was an article about his father this weekend in the WSJ. Apparently he got hit in the Madoff affair. Claimed to have lost about 2% of his net worth. Interestingly, he said he heard Madoff was a ponzi scheme a decade ago. When he heard this he immediately requested a withdrawal of 500k.(about half of what he had invested). Says he promptly received the money and concluded this wasn't the way ponzi schemes operated. We use to pool hop at his house in the late 80's.
A couple other anecdotal data points from my own experience...
At local Sam's Club (nearest Costco is 60 or so miles away), they're down to one supplier of bacon from three. Lots of different frozen premade hors d'oeuvres, though. Wal-Mart in town no longer stocks inkjet printable DVDs. (Needed them for a holiday project, and had to make one hour round trip to find them. Grr.)
Also, local TV station is running ads from NADA telling people their local auto dealer has "plenty of financing available" and "will work with you to get the car you want."
It would be interesting to see both rental units and empty/available homes in the same place. Folks can convert from owning to renting, and vice versa, but "most" everyone need to be housed, and seeing the total available units of housing versus the number of folks looking for a place to stay. In other words, if folks can't sell and can't rent out, they're really in a heap of trouble.
Why wasn't Larry Kudlow selected to be a member of BHO's economic team ? He's a shameless hypocrite & shill so that makes him a perfect fleece-the-treasury candidate.
The NAR building in Washington is 12 stories high, plenty high to jump from. However, the windows don't open. \t some investor guy | 12.23.08 - 11:59 am | #
The regulators usually take Christmas to New Years off but this is different... \t FFDIC | 12.23.08 - 12:00 pm | #
Exactly. Frankly I am insensed at the dead banks they are continuing to let operate. I understand staff constraints and all but they are making things worse at this point.
Take the range Q1, compare 2005 and 2008. 2005: 93, 109, 127 2008: 44, 49, 50 See? Far less seasonality. And that makes snese. There will always be sales. Estate, job transfers, divorce, medical and lifestyle. They don't exhibit as much seasonality. They are a larger portion of what sales are being recorded. SAAR in thses circumstances understates in traditionally busy months and overstates in slower months, like November. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 11:30 am | #
No, I still don't see it. I think both sets of data, 2005 and 2008, are sitting on sloping baselines. The 2005 data are sitting on an upward sloping line, which exaggerates the change in sales through Q1, and the 2008 data are sitting on a downward sloping line, which diminishes the change in sales through Q1. The sloping baselines reflect the overall change in demand for housing: an increase throughout 2005 and a decrease throughout 2008. Without correcting for the slopes of these baselines, the seasonal effects are distorted. For what it's worth, the seasonal correction still seems appropriate to me.
"Stock market losses are not the only problem for housing. The biggest enemy of consumption is unemployment. The layoffs are now starting in the high tech industries, and some buyers are concerned they could be next. With worries about their job, they are not going to buy!
So the job losses will do what the falling prices could not: reduce sales. It is interesting to me, that buyers do not care about falling prices. They will buy, even knowing that prices will continue to fall. So the fellow readers on housing blogs are generally not wealthy market timers, but renters who still cannot afford these prices. People will buy as long as they can afford it, and they don't give a damn about losing equity.
Affording a home means they can make the monthly payment, so of course they must have a job. As unemployment is spreading to industries outside housing, finance, and retail, these buyers are now worried about making the payments. Perhaps, they think, we should not buy now. Maybe we have to relocate? Maybe we will need our savings to survive an extended unemployment period. So these job losses have shaken a few buyers out of the market, and this trend will continue as long as people see layoffs"
This is to be the year that the high-end, good neighborhoods take it in the teeth.
I'm looking at neighborhoods in Chicago with houses in the $0.8m-$2.0m range. 2008 was a story of a nearly complete absence of deals, inventories in this price range rising to two years or more, and steadily declining asks, down maybe 15% from this summer. Only a handful of capitulation transactions. But prices are still at 04-05 levels.
My sense is that rising layoffs (especially at the high end), a hard recession, higher jumbo rates, and tighter credit are going to finally get a serious move in high-end prices to 2001 levels around the US.
Jas, love your honest dialogue and the only way to awaken people from the lies in gangistan is to use language that calls out the dopes, cheats, liars and propagandists.
Happy holidays you are doing a great job and more importantly you have been so correct.
In our new world, the honest and the correct will lead but for now they can only call out the hypocrites and the enablers.
Kudos
Octobers strength was merely demand pulled forward as RE agents & mortgage brokers rushed to get deals closed before the new restrictions went in place. FHA DAP's, DU & LP changes (Income waivers becoming harder to get) and new private MI restrictions all happened in October. Now we see demand fall off because the restrictions are in place.
January 1st we have the jumbo conforming limit going down and almost all private mortgage insurers not insuring more than 85% LTV (90% for conforming) for jumbo conforming loans in California.
So much for BHO's Oil Company Windfall profits tax. Sinking tax receipts and massive spending increases should push the national debt to $20T before 2011.
Ilargi: The prevailing economic theory in the western world today remains a Chicago school type of Keynesianism, in which markets absolutely must be free unless they the gambling encouraged by that freedom runs into debt, in which case the money of the poor, and their children must be confiscated by their governments in order for the rich to be able to continue gambling. If that still fails, too bad, but it certainly doesn't mean their theory is wrong.
Amazingly there are many charities that actually do spend the majority of their money on overhead and fundraising. I have actually seen 90% expense ratios in some charity financial disclosure info. Shocking to think that only 10% of your donation goes to the intended purpose. Zephyr | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 11:39 am | #
Before you give a charity money, ask to see their most recent tax return (Form 990). It contains a breakout of their expenditures. It also shows that they are indeed a charity and that they at least attempt to play by the rules.
Speaking of wordsmithing, here is an alternative definition for consumption: "tuberculosis has been called consumption, because it seemed to consume people from within, with a bloody cough, fever, pallor, and long relentless wasting."
Blood and wasting. Who is it that keeps saying "some day this war will end"?
" Adornosghost writes:
Ilargi: The prevailing economic theory in the western world today remains a Chicago school type of Keynesianism, in which markets absolutely must be free unless they the gambling encouraged by that freedom runs into debt, in which case the money of the poor, and their children must be confiscated by their governments in order for the rich to be able to continue gambling. If that still fails, too bad, but it certainly doesn't mean their theory is wrong.
It's one-dimensional thinking at its best.
Adornosghost | 12.23.08 - 12:14 pm | # "
Huh! Isn't the Chicago School know for Monetarism? Don't Keynesians believe in transfer payment from rich to poor, and government stimulus?
10 PRINT "ARE BANKS INSOLVENT YET? Y/N"
20 INPUT X
30 REM
40 REM
50 IF X = "Y" THEN GOTO 80
60 IF X = "N" THEN GOTO 10
70 REM
80 PRINT "WELCOME TO BANK HOLIDAY"
90 GOTO 80
Curmudgeon: "This is to be the year that the high-end, good neighborhoods take it in the teeth. "
I agree. Just the difference in interest rates between conforming and jumbo conforming loans is bad at a lot (not all) lenders. And that will brings prices down. And the continued tightening credit for Jumbo loans and onerous rates above and beyong those of jumbo conforming and conforming makes it even harder. PMI and FHA won't help that market at all so it is only very well qualified (documented income) people with signficant down payments (20%-25%+) can even particiapte in that strata. And pay a premium to do so.
As this theory goes, oil as a manipulated and speculative commodity is being used as a tool, like a weapon of mass destruction, to re-shape global industries, e.g, as global oil crashes in value, the correlated destruction and crash of the global auto industry begins to look like two parties at war, both of whom are positioning themselves with strategies that are at odds with each others futures.
Hence, the future interests of OPEC oil production are not aligned with Detroit and the future of Detroit auto production depends on financing that will not be linked to the current OPEC infrastructure. This economic battle for future value in the form of a stable valuation will play out with production cuts by OPEC, designed to restrict supply capacities so that oil rices will increase. Adversely, the increased oil prices and manipulated shortages will fuel the nationalized desires of many countries to reduce demand and plan ahead for greater fuel efficiency measures. Furthermore, oil production countries and OPEC-related members will be less likely to invest in or support dollar-based carry trade. Therefore, increased volatility and instability in currency markets will add pressure to future valuations related to Treasury yields that are often dependent on foreign purchases.
Nationalization, isolationism and independence will be a side-effect of this global valuation war which will force a re-balancing of global interactions in a world where oil is less and less important.
Before you give a charity money, ask to see their most recent tax return (Form 990). It contains a breakout of their expenditures. It also shows that they are indeed a charity and that they at least attempt to play by the rules. \t FUBAR & WASS LLC -------------------- It's a good starting point, but look at them critically. I've seen some expenditures included in the exempt purpose that actually benefit only members of industry groups (like NAR, but not actually NAR in this case). Not that anyone would donate to the NAR.
WESTSIDE LOS ANGELES, including the platinum triangle area, are starting to get hammered. Saw a house yesterday for 2.1 million that sold for 2.6 in 2005. At the top it would have been priced at 4M.
Also, many hi-enders are trying to lease their house to get out from under resets. There are 100 houses for lease in Bel Air (usually 20), and rental prices are off 25% from last year.
There has been a noticeable drop in prices in the last 6 weeks. The last bit of bubbleland is going into the water.
2009 is the year the high end spots get atomized, for sure.
OT
Deflation=less ice cream and inflation=same price
anyone notice how a 1/2 gallon of Dreyers, Breyers even store brand etc is now 1.5 qts..same price and it looks like a 1/2 gallon...almost fooled me..
I then woke up from my sheeple dream and made some nestles tollhouse choc chip cookies w/daughter....tip use recipe on back of bag and add 2 cups of oatmeal...tasty
here is the test for a charity- variant of Peter Lynch's investment advise. Donate to a charity that you would be willing to volunteer for. Following that theme ask how much of their services are provided by volunteers. The only expandable resource that charities have is volunteers.
The best way to explain exactly how one-dimensional the IMF, Britain's Gordon Brown, and the Citi/Goldman made men who direct the US government are, can be found in the words "necessary to stimulate economic growth". For these people, the Greater Depression we now have entered in full with our eyes open and closed at the same time, is but a boring snag on the road to the liberation that huge increases in their already huge wealth will bring. And the most clever ones even recognize it as an opportunity to vastly add to their power, money and glory. To them, it's utterly inconsequential whether or not they leave hunger, death and despair in their wake. They have only one theory, and therefore it's impossible that this theory might be wrong. In a one-dimensional world, there are two directions: forward and backward. There's no sideways, let alone up and down.
ron, about "buyers don't care about home prices falling, they buy anyway"...
i do care! give me a break, it's probably the most expensive purchase i'll make so obviously i want to get it right. i know people that think harder when buying a car than a house for some weird reason. not me ron.
buying at the bottom while renting for less than carrying cost of similar house is a good strategy. i also want to save on trading up and buy my definite home. that will be a kick ass (am i dreaming too high?)
anyway, the money saved goes into my retirement/college portfolio. what's wrong with that?
Bloomberg - Same-store sales in November and December may drop as much as 2 percent, the International Council of Shopping Centers said today, more than the previously projected 1 percent. That would make it the worst Christmas sales season in at least four decades.
i see it really crashing once many people that work in finance in manhattan acknowledge they have neg equity themselves. they are mostly delusional so far.
"Jas, Where do you see the stock market." I just snorted my orange juice. The shills on CNBC are asking guests about 2009 and this one guy said he expects a "7" and she gasps in her mic "a seven!" by accident.
This is an global economic war, so I look for continued fighting. This is essentially WW lll, thus weak hands will be ripped away from retarded investments and cash will be in short supply during this period of deflation.
Re: ""The past couple of quarters have been really weak and if anything, I'm afraid it may indicate a really bad fourth quarter," said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re in New York."
Does anyone really think that retard should get an XMAS bonus for stating something a seven year old understands?
re Bob Mologna's comment ways back, about Wells not listing FCs.
I vauely recall around May, after the Credit Suisse report (1st version) someone pointed out that Wells was a major player in the Alt-Adjustible mortages. The CS report showed that the resets on these products will begin in early 2009, and peak in the latter part of 2011.
It could be that WF is now looking at moving up that reset-timeline, and wondering when their geyser blows.
OK, all you PPT tinfoil hat wearers..... if you really think they're out there buying equities, don't whine about it.... step up and buy stocks for yourself, right here, right now. Come on, you know you want to.... Timmy and Hankie will bail you out!
More anecdotal.... I'm both a realtor and a GC. My wife gets cookbooks from Goodwill and my boys get robot masks made from empty 12 pack boxes and tin foil (keeps out the mind rays...
Of course, the wife also gets a small tin of goose foie gras with black truffles. A man can't live on toast points alone.
Rob Dawg writes:
The "business of America is business." - Calvin Coolidge
The "business of America is government." - Barak Obama
Rob Dawg | H
I think perhaps after all this we will realize that the Business of AMERICANS is government..We are reaping the consequences of 30 years of ideology that "government is bad and is the enemy" Perhaps if Americans devoted as much time to ensuring that their government runs effectively as they do watching American Idol we might have a chance in the future. If we wish to be opiated by the equivalent of Roman gladiators we will end up like Rome.
Reflation(inflation) will beat the deflationary pressures next year, waiting for the FED and Treas. to lend directly to circumvent the banks' reluctance.
Warp speed scotty.. let's increase the velocity.
OK, all you PPT tinfoil hat wearers..... if you really think they're out there buying equities, don't whine about it.... step up and buy stocks for yourself, right here, right now. Come on, you know you want to.... Timmy and Hankie will bail you out!
Eric | 12.23.08 - 12:50 pm | #
Eric, Eric, Eric.... sigh. The markets don't even open for 3 hours. Besides, in case you haven't noticed the PPT on works when deployed sparingly. I suspect most here can see the diminishing returns from their efforts and actually welcome the pumps as opportunities to catch better short positions. When the PPT goes "EPIC FAIL" as we all know is inevitable the plunge will put previous drops into footnote status.
Bob Mologna(Unrated) writes: \tMore anecdotal.... I'm both a realtor and a GC. My wife gets cookbooks from Goodwill and my boys get robot masks made from empty 12 pack boxes and tin foil (keeps out the mind rays... Bob Mologna | 12.23.08 - 12:50 pm | #
Go, Bob. Our local Goodwill opened an entire separate bookstore this year -- with only the better donations in top shape -- and it does a great business. I'm sure it'll be the source of more than a few presents this year.
GM Investors Bet Lifeline From U.S. Wont Be Enough GM Investors Bet Lifeline From U.S. Won’t Be Enough (Update5) - Bloomberg.com
There is a high likelihood of a GM bankruptcy, Standard & Poors said yesterday in reducing the rating on the companys unsecured debt to C, or 11 grades below investment quality. Robert Schulz, an S&P analyst in New York, said creditors can expect negligible recovery should the automaker default.
There are some charities moving to the best model I've heard of for covering expenses. Basically the board is responsible for paying all of the overhead each year, so that 100% of outside contributions can go to program activities.
Kills three birds with one stone.
1) Outside contributors know that all their money goes to program efforts
2) Overhead costs likely to be controlled by board that has skin in the game
3) You get a board that is actively involved in things rather than do-nothing directors only interested in networking and polishing their resume.
--
"This is an global economic war, so I look for continued fighting. This is essentially WW lll, thus weak hands will be ripped away from retarded investments and cash will be in short supply during this period of deflation."
"Churches turn to Chapter 11 in book of bankruptcy - December 23, 2008
WSJ Online - During this holiday season of hard times, not even houses of God have been spared. Some lenders believe more churches than ever have fallen behind on loans or defaulted this year. Some churches, and at least one company that specialized in church lending, have filed for bankruptcy.
Church giving is down as much as 15% in some places, pastors and lenders report. We are seeing more stress in churches than we have in modern history, says Mark G.Holbrook, president and chief executive of the Evangelical Christian Credit Union of Brea, Calif., which specializes in lending to churches.
The credit union has moved to foreclose on seven of its 2,000 member churches this year, and Mr. Holbrook says he expects to take similar action against two more next year. Before now, it had foreclosed on only two churches in its 45-year history..."
Ya', those charities are such pricks /snark
xxxxx | 12.23.08 - 11:12 am |
You got it right, xxxxx, except for the /snark. Don't even mention their funding of illegal ethnic cleansing in occupied Palestine in violation of State Department directives.
Here's an example of a 'charity' specialized, so it seems, in ethnic supremacism:
"To be a Jew, to live fully as a Jew, is to be a blessing to all humanity, and that calling, which dates back to God's first conversation with Abraham, has taken a potentially catastrophic hit," said Rabbi William Hamilton of Congregation Kehillath Israel in Brookline. "When one considers the number of philanthropies that have been dedicated to fulfilling that calling that have been crippled or destroyed by Mr. Madoff's desecration of God's name, I don't believe we've even begun to appreciate the historic setback."
Pushed his/her/their way into the house on pretext of getting a glass of water. She must have fought back, 'cause he pushed her down the (spiral) basement stairs.
She purposefully played dead, so she wouldn't be attacked any more, attacker(s) went upstairs to loot house and she and her 10 broken ribs got to the phone and called 911 and they ran away.
Saw this trailer on Bloomberg last nite, UK GDP -0.6%. Here's the detail:
Britain's economy shrank at the fastest rate since 1990 in the third quarter, largely because of sharp falls in output from hotels, restaurants and the financial sector, as well as manufacturers including carmakers.
The UK's gross domestic product fell by 0.6% in the July to September period, not by 0.5% as previously reported, the Office for National Statistics said this morning. The annual growth rate of 0.3% was the weakest since 1992. City economists had not expected any revision.
From BofA, London: "It's essentially showing that the recession was somewhat worse already in the third quarter than we had previously thought ... The decline we are likely to see in the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year will be substantially worse than what we have seen in the third quarter. It really does paint an exceptionally gloomy picture about the speed with which the UK economy has lapsed into recession."
"Perhaps if Americans devoted as much time to ensuring that their government runs effectively as they do watching American Idol we might have a chance in the future. "
Do you honestly believe the problem with government is that it's not run effectively? They're are universal truths, and the idea that a large beurocracy can be managed to the benefit of anyone is not one of them.
Brevard mall report: Hub went to get me things like gloves, hat, socks, since I own none of the above, to wear in Baltimore, and said the mall was very busy. Mall across the street very busy too.
Sorry to hear that. Similar thing happened to my landlady in London while my wife was there. The local police asked when called if we wanted them to bother coming around or not.
I must admit, I'm still baffled by the apparent truism that manages to assert that large bureaucracies run by corporations are good and efficient and to be trusted in all circumstances and large bureaucracies run by the government are the exact opposite. I must have been out sick that day of social programming in pre-school.
WSJ Online - During this holiday season of hard times, not even houses of God have been spared. Some lenders believe more churches than ever have fallen behind on loans or defaulted this year. Some churches, and at least one company that specialized in church lending, have filed for bankruptcy. one_timmy | 12.23.08 - 1:00 pm | #
This is a bad time to be a church with a mortgage. Some that I know are running lean, very lean. One bad bump in giving, or unexpected expense, and they could be toast.
" I'm still baffled by the apparent truism that..."
You missed it. That truism went out in the early nineties. What's still around, though, is the belief that an Ivy League MBA qualifies anyone to do anything.
lawyerliz writes:
But, bad news, her heart acting up.
So sorry to hear about your mother. But, the bit about playing possum, i'll remember just in case.... (old, smart and tough... don't see many of that model any more)
Ventura County mall report. Mrs. Dawg is getting a nice purse. Shopped, Macy's, Coach, Coach outlet, Sears, Kohls and the best purse was $50 at JC Penny. Better than the $285 Macy's second best choice and the Coach crap @ $400+ were just a joke. Very busy, tough parking but spaces available. Traffic sucked dead donkeys. Really bad. Must have looked at 2000 purses. Resembled a GM dealership lot or the Port of Hueneme auto storage expansion facility. The US has way too much in the pipeline and on the shelves.
"Brevard mall report: Hub went to get me things like gloves, hat, socks, since I own none of the above, to wear in Baltimore, and said the mall was very busy."
Buying stuff made abroad with credit cards is a sign of healthy economy, right? There will be no hope until FACTORIES are busy again...
There are only two alternatives to efficient government- no government or inefficient government. No government is essentially the law of the jungle which is actually government by a different form- the biggest and meanest govern. Or you get inefficient government which is what we had. So which one would you prefer?
Need an atty. or bond guy or girl to explain but, Fed can't buy US Treasuries via sterilized market derivatives through a third party using tax payer money
"Brevard mall report: Hub went to get me things like gloves, hat, socks, since I own none of the above, to wear in Baltimore, and said the mall was very busy."
As much as Madoff should be in custody it would be a logistical and security nightmare for the authorities. Best for all that he takes care of his own well being for the moment.
Dawg -- It sounds like he was just one of the duped -- to the tune of $1.4 BILLION:
Thierry Magon de La Villehuchet, who ran a fund that invested with Bernard Madoff, was found dead at his Madison Avenue office today, a New York City police officer at the scene said. The death appeared to be a suicide, he said.
De la Villehuchet, 65, was a founding partner and chief executive officer of Access International Advisors, according to a marketing document. Access invested $1.4 billion with Madoff, who was arrested on Dec. 11 for allegedly running a $50 billion Ponzi scheme.
The
[x] Government
[ ] Business
of
[x] America
[ ] Canada
[ ] Mexico
[ ] Botswana
is
[x] Business
[ ] Government
[ ] Cattle Raising
[ ] a Drug Cartel
[ ] Making Cars
signed by
[x] Cal Coolidge
[ ] Frankie Roosevelt
[ ] Herbie Hoover
[ ] Barry O'bama
I managed to notice the MBA one, but as I'd already stopped stuffing teeth under my pillow and leaving out plates of cookies in December, I merely filed it under "huh?" and moved on. I'm clearly ready to be deported.
And, even given that the business of America is business, how's that current business model working out there guys?
Anonymous writes: They took themselves out. At least Madoff had the guts to face the music.
Burden to their families, embarassment to their firms and families, rtremendous expense for the state. The "guts" to face the music only matter if you're a prosecuting attorney.
Why should they stick around to be your patsy, Mr. DA?
Read a book about high income careers 10 years ago. I remember being surprised by the amount of upper middle class($150,000 a year+) wages were earned in sales.
Tough to see the next two years producing that sort of income in selling anything.
"OK, all you PPT tinfoil hat wearers..... if you really think they're out there buying equities, don't whine about it.... step up and buy stocks for yourself, right here, right now. Come on, you know you want to.... Timmy and Hankie will bail you out!" --------------------------------
Fed said in connection with yesterday's agency coupon pass that they were done for the year. Today they did another $1.6 billion on the heels of the housing news. That should be enough to ensure an up close.
Madoff is a distraction as is the TARP.
Trillions are being spent or promised while everyone focuses on a measly 350B.
As for investors with Madoff, I have no sympathy for them, if you don't do your due diligence, you deserve what you get.
Hedge Fund Redemptions May Crash Q1 Markets Seeking Alpha is finally talking about hedge fund redemptions. The 800lb gorilla in my opinion. Ties in with Madoff.
~~~~
I was sayin' this a couple days back ...
All the billionaires want their money back ... NOW!
scav writes:
I must admit, I'm still baffled by the apparent truism that manages to assert that large bureaucracies run by corporations are good and efficient and to be trusted in all circumstances and large bureaucracies run by the government are the exact opposite. I must have been out sick that day of social programming in pre-school.
scav | 12.23.08 - 1:14 pm | #
Scav,
My inner Hayek was mumbling to itself about Hayek's critique of government central planning and thinking large national and international businesses are central planners also.
Does that mean we are all doomed?
In the olden days there were lots of businesses providing the same goods and services and if some of them failed so be it. Now with the globalized world we can't let any business fail.
It is a strange world we live in. Wonder what it will look like to the grandkids?
My best wishes for your Mother's speedy recovery. The anger and fear left after a brutal attack are also very debilitating. I hope that passes as well.
at what point to stock prices stop meaning anything? we are perioulsy close \t S | \t \t \t \t12.23.08 - 1:34 pm | # ------------------------------------
They will start meaning something when (i) the hedge funds have sufficiently unloaded, or (ii) the Fed and Treasury run out of bullets.
One important trend to analyze is the seasonality of inventory. Here in the DC area we have seen overall inventory declines. The seasonality however has diminished. My guess is that because REO and foreclosures make up the bulk of the market and are not dictated by the typical selling season they are reducing the typical seasonal variation.
I'm not sure if this trend is national but if so it will make YOY comparisons difficult during non-peak season.
Would it be possible for Madoff to plead guilty in return for a sentencing before the New Year and then quickly get into Bush's pardon line ?
Not necessary, bearly. Person doesn't have to be charged to be pardoned. Some speculation that Cheney will be pardoned, especially after he's recently admitted to knowing about torture.
That is the key and it only occurs as a result of market discipine, coinciding with a rapid decline in the value of the dollar. Ben & Hank are pressing their luck.
There are some charities moving to the best model I've heard of for covering expenses. Basically the board is responsible for paying all of the overhead each year, so that 100% of outside contributions can go to program activities. Curmudgeon | 12.23.08 - 12:59 pm | #
Good idea. The charity, for which I kept the books twenty years ago, did this. The only complication was that GAAP required that we treat the cost of overhead (salaries of charity's staff, full medical/dental/vision for staff, rent for really nice office space shared with a hedge fund, etc.) as "in-kind" contributions. This meant that the the ratio of administration costs (covered by the directors) to program expenditures (stuff actually done with donations from outside donors) looked worse that it actually was.
I must admit, I'm still baffled by the apparent truism that manages to assert that large bureaucracies run by corporations are good and efficient and to be trusted in all circumstances and large bureaucracies run by the government are the exact opposite. I must have been out sick that day of social programming in pre-school.
scav | 12.23.08 - 1:14 pm | #
Yes, it is really about large sclerotic bureaucracies, government or corporate. Why this isn't obvious to everyone is curious to me.
Also scav, I am also a 1st time home buyer on the sidelines. $20,000 is a lot of money to me and $200,000 is a @$#&load. I want to be in a neighborhood for a long time but hell, I might have to move for a job and I want some money for retirement. Paying down an extra 200,000 and interest is not good no matter what kind of buyer you are.
dilbert - agreed, although I'd come at it from the monoculture / species-richness biome line of thought, just because of where I got most of my education. We've certainly managed to build large complex systems and then driven them to brittleness and beyond. No redundencies and fall-back positions, no flex, damn little cushion in the face of problems. Doomed? Depends on who the "we" is.
dilbert dogbert writes: It is a strange world we live in. Wonder what it will look like to the grandkids?
Like you were living in a dying global state-system whose every bureaucratic niche had been throughly infiltrated on a global scale by vested interests.
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Thierry Magon de La Villehuchet, who ran a fund that invested with Bernard Madoff, was found dead at his Madison Avenue office today, a New York City police officer at the scene said. The death appeared to be a suicide, he said.
This is the first American banker suicide I've heard of. I'd heard of several Euros.
Speed Racer writes:
Must be some big bucks if pajamas. Pajamagram.com has been running a lot of ads.
God me too. What the hell would I want to buy that when the models look like idiots prancing around in a pajama? Turns me off. Now something skimpy and tight is what I would send. A thong-a-gram!
well, until Exxon, Citi, MickeySoft, Enron and those ilk universally and uni-laterially off themselves in hotel rooms, I'll keep FEMA, medicare and the IRS et. al. I'm not about to disarm myself because you have an unrealized theory of the rapture.
I say we throw them, rapists, murderers and child molesters into a big boat, head out to the farallon islands, set up some chum, cut the back of thier legs, hook them just behind the neck and start trolling..
We as a nation became pacified..too many criminal rights...1800's style justice suits me fine....
I would wager 100 heck even 100000 SRS shares that crime would go down...
"Rob Dawg writes:
Ventura County mall report. Mrs. Dawg is getting a nice purse. Shopped, Macy's, Coach, Coach outlet, Sears, Kohls and the best purse was $50 at JC Penny. Better than the $285 Macy's second best choice and the Coach crap @ $400+ were just a joke. Very busy, tough parking but spaces available."
I was at same Camarillo Outlet mall yesterday. Insane shortage of small sizes. Nothing to be found for me or my wife. It is a big destination for Japanese and Chinese tourists to shop. They scooped up most of what us thinner-than-average Americans would have gotten.
S writes:
at what point to stock prices stop meaning anything? we are perioulsy close
S | 12.23.08 - 1:34 pm | #
The truth is that they have never mattered but the policy makers have behaved in manner as though they are the only things that matter. The sooner we stop focusing on stock prices and worrying about what is "good for the markets" the better off we will be. This myopic focus on markets is equivalent of a parenting style that seeks to get the approval of the kids!
The shills on CNBC are asking guests about 2009 and this one guy said he expects a "7" and she gasps in her mic "a seven!" by accident. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 12:43 pm | #
Whoosh! That one sailed right over my head. What in the hell does that mean?
The "business of America is business." - Calvin Coolidge
The "business of America is government." - Barak Obama
fi
All priced in???
Moorlach Sees Up to 10 Municipal Bankruptcies in Coming Year - Bloomberg.com
more disaster porn please
Fun Yun is now in the hope camp....
--
It will go below 3M.
Jas
manja cake writes:
more disaster porn please
manja cake | 12.23.08 - 11:02 am | #
The stories of Madoff investors suing each other for claw backs is my current guilty pleasure.
"It is a little unusual for supply to increase in November (from October), and looking forward, usually supply falls sharply in December as homeowners take their properties off the market for the holidays. Something to watch for next month."
All efforts have failed...
My brain tells me not to read this stuff, but it is like watching a bad car crash... I can't help myself
The stories of Madoff investors suing each other for claw backs is my current guilty pleasure.
asl hearts lenin | 12.23.08 - 11:06 am | #
I want to hear more stories about the douchebags who gloated for years and years about how well they were doing in their "exclusive fund".
"We hope the home sales impact from the stock market crash turns out to be short-lived, as was the case in 1987 and 2001,
I think that if that is the most optimistic Yun can get, things are even worse than Jas says....
Alternative version of Rob Dawg:
"The business of America is business." Wall Street Lobbyist, ca. 2005 (note similar lack of foresight shown by Calvin Coolidge at a similar time in history).
"The business of government is bailing out business." Barack Obama.
Uh, Jas
That'd be a Depression estimation on your part.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected a decline. âThe quickly deteriorating conditions in the job market, stock market, and consumer confidence in October and November have knocked down home sales to another level.
This is true. It gets to be real scary time when even the NAR blind squirell finds a nut. What we've had up until now has been only a speculative blow off. The NAR has for the last two years held onto the rubrick that housing doesn't decline until the gereral economy and employment fall first. This time was different. It is only just now that the usual suspects (economy & employment) are becoming a force and thanks to an inept government we are still dealing with the speculative blow off so we can now expect an even more severe rcession and deeper housing losses.
"
I want to hear more stories about the douchebags who gloated for years and years about how well they were doing in their "exclusive fund".
Eric | 12.23.08 - 11:08 am | # "
Ya', those charities are such pricks /snark
--
"The "business of America is business." - Calvin Coolidge The "business of America is government." - Barak Obama"
Rob Dawg,
The real business of American govt and corporations, or "business," is deception, fraud and manipulation.
In order to make that possible and sustainable it became necessary to BREED DOPES and many of them into morally bankrupt dopes, e.g., those who voted to re-elect Bush, Jr., and still defend him.
The real story of America is: Crooks and Dopes. The rest are merely the details.
Jas
What genius decided to move Kudlow to The Call? Boosterism I can take, but Kudlow is just a plain old liar.
From the previous thread:
Rob Dawg writes:
Repeating my earler comment. Even a cursory glance at the graph shows that much of the old seasonality has been removed from the sales trends. I assert that the raw data are indicating a far worse sales market than the SAAR.
Rob, you'll have to explain this comment, because I thought just the opposite. To me, the seasonality is clearly present when I account for a sloping baseline, i.e. a general trend towards lessening demand. To see the seasonality of sales, I estimated the values in CR's graph and then added back a time dependent term (actual value + time*k) and saw pretty good seasonality using k=1.5 and t=1, 2, 3 for each month. Am I missing something?
One, what are charities doing investing in unregulated hedge funds? Two, what are funds doing investing in unregulated hedge funds?
Josh Marshall cited you on CRE
Talking Points Memo
Anonymous writes:
What genius decided to move Kudlow to The Call?
Kudlow is a complete idiot ..My guess is that they needed some more of that "mustard seed" talk now that the "drill drill drill" doesn't mean anything any more
"The business of government is bailing out business." Barack Obama.
comrade dope albrt
Um, you mean George Bush? BHO hasn't bailed anything yet.
Or maybe you meant:
"The business of government is destroying business."
Whatever, what you originally said was truly dope in the original sense.
A little humor for everyone here.
"CXO found that Cramer's stock market predictions (monitored from 2000 onward) were worse than average and even worse than simply flipping a coin. Cramer's prognostications fared better than the market averages only 47 percent of the time. Regarding Cramer's predictions, CXO comments that, "His predictions sometimes swing dramatically from optimistic to pessimistic, and back again, over short periods. It is difficult to infer his guiding valuation theory, if he has one. We wonder whether he tends to be swayed by the arguments of forceful advocates with whom he most recently interacted...He seems more a stream of uncalibrated opinion than a stock market maven.""
The Worth of Jim Cramer's Advice - Eric Tyson
The business of government is bailing out business." Barack Obama.
comrade dope albrt
It is fun to see the guys that are in charge of the mess blame the guy who hasn't even gotten the mess yet
CR quoted again. Soon we will see the man behind the curtain on Bloomberg
December 12th, 2008
The folks at Calculated Risk have put together a nice summary of a lot of the points that weve mentioned in this blog. Ive excerpted it whole. The summary: malls and retail = bad investments right now.
This post is a summary of recent commercial real estate (CRE) data suggesting that investment in non-residential real estate will decline sharply over the next several quarters.
Note: There is another problem with CRE too (not discussed here) - many existing properties were recently purchased at prices that were based on overly optimistic pro forma income projections. These loans typically included reserves to pay interest until rents increased (like a negatively amortizing option ARM), and it is likely that many of these deals will blow up when the interest reserve is depleted - probably in the 2009-2010 period.
Historically investment in non-residential structures lags investment in residential by 5 to 8 quarters. The reasons are pretty clear - the commercial builders (for malls, offices, lodging, etc.) usually build after they see the rooftops, i.e. the residential is in place.
It appears the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) bust has started. Here is a summary of recent data:
Home Equity Clawbacks anyone?
You know, claw back my houses value at peak, because that is good for the economy.
No?
Fine. Bring in the carniverous ponies.
Ya', those charities are such pricks /snark
xxxxx | 12.23.08 - 11:12 am | #
They weren't the ones "gloating". That's the difference. I'm talking about the guys showing up at the country club, dissing everyone else's investments, and saying how great Madoff was, but "sorry, you can't invest...."
The charities, I do feel sorry for.
I mentioned a few weeks back that we had put an offer on a house. Well, apparently a better offer came along and the house is now pending. I remain a renter.
My search is limited to a very small area for school/work/family reasons. But if this house does close, it will be just the second sale in the last six months in what I consider the upper end of the neighboorhood. 8-10 houses in this price range went unsold over the last six months- either turned into rentals or owners just decided the offers weren't right.
So it looks like we'll break a year's inventory in January. Its going to be a cold dark window!
OT, I haven't scraped ice off my car in California, ex-ski resorts... ever before! I had to this morning... very odd.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Rob, you'll have to explain this comment, because I thought just the opposite. To me, the seasonality is clearly present when I account for a sloping baseline, i.e. a general trend towards lessening demand. To see the seasonality of sales, I estimated the values in CR's graph and then added back a time dependent term (actual value + time*k) and saw pretty good seasonality using k=1.5 and t=1, 2, 3 for each month. Am I missing something?
Curious | 12.23.08 - 11:13 am | #
Take the range Q1, compare 2005 and 2008.
2005: 93, 109, 127
2008: 44, 49, 50
See? Far less seasonality. And that makes snese. There will always be sales. Estate, job transfers, divorce, medical and lifestyle. They don't exhibit as much seasonality. They are a larger portion of what sales are being recorded. SAAR in thses circumstances understates in traditionally busy months and overstates in slower months, like November.
Existing Home Sales Plunge in November
"I love it. God help me I do love it so."
--General George S. Patto
I think the only high priced home to sale in my area was the one sold to Bush and he paid top dollar. However, when he sells Tom Hicks will likely buy it to expand his property which borders it and pay Bush a handsome price for it.
Eric,
I think due diligence are to this decade as seat belts were to the 1950s.
Cramer is an entertainer not an analyst, and not that entertaining!
Seriously? Fuck the charities. Most of them are "make work" employment using the funds of donors to give themselves free money. Why give if 90% of the giving is eaten up by administrative costs?
Neil writes:
OT, I haven't scraped ice off my car in California, ex-ski resorts... ever before! I had to this morning... very odd.
Oil company shill........
I was in Wells Fargo the other day doing a wire transfer to buy a house ($20,000 REO) and asked the bank manager why they aren't posting local foreclosures on their website anymore. He told me they had stopped marketing their foreclosed houses for the time being because the market was so weak. Anecdotal, so take it for what it's worth. They did offer me a free stuffed pony if I'd open a personal account though...
We hope the home sales impact from the stock market crash turns out to be short-lived, as was the case in 1987 and 2001,
Of all actions available to us, hope is the most unlikely to be effective.
bob mologna,
Beware the stuffed pony. it will wake at night and eat your face. Probaby poop all over your living room.
To me, the most amazing Madoff investor story was the guy who had $8 Million life savings and put it all with Madoff. I feel bad for the guy, but can you say "divserification"? You'd better, expecially if you can't say "due diligence".
Eric writes:
I want to hear more stories about the douchebags who gloated for years and years about how well they were doing in their "exclusive fund".
I have to agree. I remember a snatch of conversation at a job site -- can't recall which now -- where some upwardly mobile chickie with too much beauty product on was going on that they were in a responsible investment fund with Bono.
I wonder how she's feeling right now. It was hard to not be like "I wonder how well Bono was compensated. Do you think he favors fixed income?"
She would not have gotten it and it sounded like an equity / direct placement fund. =)
Lawrence Yun, the normally upbeat chief economist of the Realtors group, found few positive spots in the month's dismal data. But he did note that after prior stock market crashes home sales usually rebounded within a few months.
"We hope that, similarly, the current slowdown in home sales activity is a short-term phenomenon," Yun said, noting that people in the real estate industry are "crossing our fingers" that the market will recover. Sales fell around the country, with the largest drop -- of 12 percent -- in the Northeast.
--
"What genius decided to move Kudlow to The Call? Boosterism I can take, but Kudlow is just a plain old liar."
Anonymous,
PROPAGANDDA MACHINE RUN BY CROOKS IN ACTION!
Next question.
Jas
"Why give if 90% of the giving is eaten up by administrative costs?"
Amazingly there are many charities that actually do spend the majority of their money on overhead and fundraising. I have actually seen 90% expense ratios in some charity financial disclosure info. Shocking to think that only 10% of your donation goes to the intended purpose.
"They weren't the ones "gloating". That's the difference. .....
The charities, I do feel sorry for.
Eric | 12.23.08 - 11:27 am | # "
A valid point- my bad
New home sales plunge! Existing home sales plunge!
Sweet, a daily double!
Now THAT is stability.
I grew up with a kid named brodsky. There was an article about his father this weekend in the WSJ. Apparently he got hit in the Madoff affair. Claimed to have lost about 2% of his net worth. Interestingly, he said he heard Madoff was a ponzi scheme a decade ago. When he heard this he immediately requested a withdrawal of 500k.(about half of what he had invested). Says he promptly received the money and concluded this wasn't the way ponzi schemes operated. We use to pool hop at his house in the late 80's.
In terms of the impact on the banks, isn't the bigger story the fall in prices?
The median resale price fell 13 percent from a year before, to $181,300, probably the largest price decline since the Great Depression, said Yun.
No wonder the bankers are all just sitting on the TARP money. Their CDO portfolios are losing value at the cyclic rate.
Or does the Fed hold all those now as "collateral"?
FFDIC
FFDIC | 12.23.08 - 11:31 am | #
Bank Failure Wednesday?
A couple other anecdotal data points from my own experience...
At local Sam's Club (nearest Costco is 60 or so miles away), they're down to one supplier of bacon from three. Lots of different frozen premade hors d'oeuvres, though. Wal-Mart in town no longer stocks inkjet printable DVDs. (Needed them for a holiday project, and had to make one hour round trip to find them. Grr.)
Also, local TV station is running ads from NADA telling people their local auto dealer has "plenty of financing available" and "will work with you to get the car you want."
Have a nice day.
This NYT confirms my on the ground observations that business is booming at craft supply stores:
For Craft Sales, the Recession Is a Help - NY Times
Gonna be a lot of toilet paper angels under the tree this year...
It would be interesting to see both rental units and empty/available homes in the same place. Folks can convert from owning to renting, and vice versa, but "most" everyone need to be housed, and seeing the total available units of housing versus the number of folks looking for a place to stay. In other words, if folks can't sell and can't rent out, they're really in a heap of trouble.
OT - Those looking for a nearterm possible low on USO: the 1 to 1 A-B=C-D price projection is 28.69.
4000 units seems about right
The NAR building in Washington is 12 stories high, plenty high to jump from. However, the windows don't open.
Bank Failure Wednesday?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 11:49 am | #
The regulators usually take Christmas to New Years off but this is different...
isn't the months inventory metric completely meaningless. When sales are high the number of months is low and vice versa.
Why wasn't Larry Kudlow selected to be a member of BHO's economic team ? He's a shameless hypocrite & shill so that makes him a perfect fleece-the-treasury candidate.
The NAR building in Washington is 12 stories high, plenty high to jump from. However, the windows don't open.
\t
some investor guy | 12.23.08 - 11:59 am | #
That's what Aeron Chairs are for.
Rob Dawg writes:
FFDIC
FFDIC | 12.23.08 - 11:31 am | #
Bank Failure Wednesday?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 11:49 am | #
The ridiculous deal 'negotiated' with Citigroup has precluded any need for a bank holiday. Treasury served notice on that one.
I am listening to the new economic plan and I am filled with dread. The same kind of dread when I first heard the term "wordsmithing"
The regulators usually take Christmas to New Years off but this is different...
\t
FFDIC | 12.23.08 - 12:00 pm | #
Exactly. Frankly I am insensed at the dead banks they are continuing to let operate. I understand staff constraints and all but they are making things worse at this point.
Take the range Q1, compare 2005 and 2008.
2005: 93, 109, 127
2008: 44, 49, 50
See? Far less seasonality. And that makes snese. There will always be sales. Estate, job transfers, divorce, medical and lifestyle. They don't exhibit as much seasonality. They are a larger portion of what sales are being recorded. SAAR in thses circumstances understates in traditionally busy months and overstates in slower months, like November.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 11:30 am | #
No, I still don't see it. I think both sets of data, 2005 and 2008, are sitting on sloping baselines. The 2005 data are sitting on an upward sloping line, which exaggerates the change in sales through Q1, and the 2008 data are sitting on a downward sloping line, which diminishes the change in sales through Q1. The sloping baselines reflect the overall change in demand for housing: an increase throughout 2005 and a decrease throughout 2008. Without correcting for the slopes of these baselines, the seasonal effects are distorted. For what it's worth, the seasonal correction still seems appropriate to me.
--
"Why wasn't Larry Kudlow selected to be a member of BHO's economic team ?"
bearly,
Wrong gang, i.e., they belong to two rival gangs.
Please understand the rules of Gangstan!
It is open-line Tuesday. Next question.
Jas
posting a bit from california housing forecast that seemed focused on this issue a bit and link:
Unemployment fears, stock losses, hit more buyers - San Diego Homes for Sale Analysis - San Diego Real Estate, Research, Market Timing, Foreclosures for sale
"Stock market losses are not the only problem for housing. The biggest enemy of consumption is unemployment. The layoffs are now starting in the high tech industries, and some buyers are concerned they could be next. With worries about their job, they are not going to buy!
So the job losses will do what the falling prices could not: reduce sales. It is interesting to me, that buyers do not care about falling prices. They will buy, even knowing that prices will continue to fall. So the fellow readers on housing blogs are generally not wealthy market timers, but renters who still cannot afford these prices. People will buy as long as they can afford it, and they don't give a damn about losing equity.
Affording a home means they can make the monthly payment, so of course they must have a job. As unemployment is spreading to industries outside housing, finance, and retail, these buyers are now worried about making the payments. Perhaps, they think, we should not buy now. Maybe we have to relocate? Maybe we will need our savings to survive an extended unemployment period. So these job losses have shaken a few buyers out of the market, and this trend will continue as long as people see layoffs"
This is to be the year that the high-end, good neighborhoods take it in the teeth.
I'm looking at neighborhoods in Chicago with houses in the $0.8m-$2.0m range. 2008 was a story of a nearly complete absence of deals, inventories in this price range rising to two years or more, and steadily declining asks, down maybe 15% from this summer. Only a handful of capitulation transactions. But prices are still at 04-05 levels.
My sense is that rising layoffs (especially at the high end), a hard recession, higher jumbo rates, and tighter credit are going to finally get a serious move in high-end prices to 2001 levels around the US.
Finally.
Jas, love your honest dialogue and the only way to awaken people from the lies in gangistan is to use language that calls out the dopes, cheats, liars and propagandists.
Happy holidays you are doing a great job and more importantly you have been so correct.
In our new world, the honest and the correct will lead but for now they can only call out the hypocrites and the enablers.
Kudos
It is interesting to me, that buyers do not care about falling prices.
Has it occurred to anyone that not everyone is looking to buy a home as an investment?
Sometimes you just plan to live in the same community for years and years and aren't thinking about making a profit on real estate. Crazy, I know.
Octobers strength was merely demand pulled forward as RE agents & mortgage brokers rushed to get deals closed before the new restrictions went in place. FHA DAP's, DU & LP changes (Income waivers becoming harder to get) and new private MI restrictions all happened in October. Now we see demand fall off because the restrictions are in place.
January 1st we have the jumbo conforming limit going down and almost all private mortgage insurers not insuring more than 85% LTV (90% for conforming) for jumbo conforming loans in California.
Effective Demand: Mortgage Insurers tighten underwriting again.
So much for BHO's Oil Company Windfall profits tax. Sinking tax receipts and massive spending increases should push the national debt to $20T before 2011.
Ilargi: The prevailing economic theory in the western world today remains a Chicago school type of Keynesianism, in which markets absolutely must be free unless they the gambling encouraged by that freedom runs into debt, in which case the money of the poor, and their children must be confiscated by their governments in order for the rich to be able to continue gambling. If that still fails, too bad, but it certainly doesn't mean their theory is wrong.
It's one-dimensional thinking at its best.
Amazingly there are many charities that actually do spend the majority of their money on overhead and fundraising. I have actually seen 90% expense ratios in some charity financial disclosure info. Shocking to think that only 10% of your donation goes to the intended purpose.
Zephyr | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 11:39 am | #
Before you give a charity money, ask to see their most recent tax return (Form 990). It contains a breakout of their expenditures. It also shows that they are indeed a charity and that they at least attempt to play by the rules.
Speaking of wordsmithing, here is an alternative definition for consumption: "tuberculosis has been called consumption, because it seemed to consume people from within, with a bloody cough, fever, pallor, and long relentless wasting."
Blood and wasting. Who is it that keeps saying "some day this war will end"?
" Adornosghost writes:
Ilargi: The prevailing economic theory in the western world today remains a Chicago school type of Keynesianism, in which markets absolutely must be free unless they the gambling encouraged by that freedom runs into debt, in which case the money of the poor, and their children must be confiscated by their governments in order for the rich to be able to continue gambling. If that still fails, too bad, but it certainly doesn't mean their theory is wrong.
It's one-dimensional thinking at its best.
Adornosghost | 12.23.08 - 12:14 pm | # "
Huh! Isn't the Chicago School know for Monetarism? Don't Keynesians believe in transfer payment from rich to poor, and government stimulus?
10 PRINT "ARE BANKS INSOLVENT YET? Y/N"
20 INPUT X
30 REM
40 REM
50 IF X = "Y" THEN GOTO 80
60 IF X = "N" THEN GOTO 10
70 REM
80 PRINT "WELCOME TO BANK HOLIDAY"
90 GOTO 80
Curmudgeon: "This is to be the year that the high-end, good neighborhoods take it in the teeth. "
I agree. Just the difference in interest rates between conforming and jumbo conforming loans is bad at a lot (not all) lenders. And that will brings prices down. And the continued tightening credit for Jumbo loans and onerous rates above and beyong those of jumbo conforming and conforming makes it even harder. PMI and FHA won't help that market at all so it is only very well qualified (documented income) people with signficant down payments (20%-25%+) can even particiapte in that strata. And pay a premium to do so.
As this theory goes, oil as a manipulated and speculative commodity is being used as a tool, like a weapon of mass destruction, to re-shape global industries, e.g, as global oil crashes in value, the correlated destruction and crash of the global auto industry begins to look like two parties at war, both of whom are positioning themselves with strategies that are at odds with each others futures.
Hence, the future interests of OPEC oil production are not aligned with Detroit and the future of Detroit auto production depends on financing that will not be linked to the current OPEC infrastructure. This economic battle for future value in the form of a stable valuation will play out with production cuts by OPEC, designed to restrict supply capacities so that oil rices will increase. Adversely, the increased oil prices and manipulated shortages will fuel the nationalized desires of many countries to reduce demand and plan ahead for greater fuel efficiency measures. Furthermore, oil production countries and OPEC-related members will be less likely to invest in or support dollar-based carry trade. Therefore, increased volatility and instability in currency markets will add pressure to future valuations related to Treasury yields that are often dependent on foreign purchases.
Nationalization, isolationism and independence will be a side-effect of this global valuation war which will force a re-balancing of global interactions in a world where oil is less and less important.
80 PRINT "WELCOME TO BANK HOLIDAY"
BASIC PROGRAM ASKS | 12.23.08 - 12:18 pm | #
You misspelled PRINT "ASK CONGRESS FOR MORE MONEY"
Before you give a charity money, ask to see their most recent tax return (Form 990). It contains a breakout of their expenditures. It also shows that they are indeed a charity and that they at least attempt to play by the rules.
\t FUBAR & WASS LLC
--------------------
It's a good starting point, but look at them critically. I've seen some expenditures included in the exempt purpose that actually benefit only members of industry groups (like NAR, but not actually NAR in this case). Not that anyone would donate to the NAR.
Wow. Just wow.
When the NAR spokesperson sstarts using language like "We hope..." then you know there is none.
"Huh! Isn't the Chicago School know for Monetarism? Don't Keynesians believe in transfer payment from rich to poor, and government stimulus?"
How's that Keynesian "government stimulus' stuff working lately? Let's be honest: it ain't.
Economics is going back to square one before this experience is over.
Everything I've read shows OxFam as the best place to donate. Been awhile but, I think it was close to 90% went to the cause
WESTSIDE LOS ANGELES, including the platinum triangle area, are starting to get hammered. Saw a house yesterday for 2.1 million that sold for 2.6 in 2005. At the top it would have been priced at 4M.
Also, many hi-enders are trying to lease their house to get out from under resets. There are 100 houses for lease in Bel Air (usually 20), and rental prices are off 25% from last year.
There has been a noticeable drop in prices in the last 6 weeks. The last bit of bubbleland is going into the water.
2009 is the year the high end spots get atomized, for sure.
How's that Keynesian "government stimulus' stuff working lately? Let's be honest: it ain't.
Economics is going back to square one before this experience is over.
\t wally
wally | 12.23.08 - 12:24 pm | #
-----
I doubt Keynes would have structured government stimulus the way Paulson & Bernanke have done it.
On another note, GM & F are both down 15% today.
OT
Deflation=less ice cream and inflation=same price
anyone notice how a 1/2 gallon of Dreyers, Breyers even store brand etc is now 1.5 qts..same price and it looks like a 1/2 gallon...almost fooled me..
I then woke up from my sheeple dream and made some nestles tollhouse choc chip cookies w/daughter....tip use recipe on back of bag and add 2 cups of oatmeal...tasty
here is the test for a charity- variant of Peter Lynch's investment advise. Donate to a charity that you would be willing to volunteer for. Following that theme ask how much of their services are provided by volunteers. The only expandable resource that charities have is volunteers.
Billionaire Feinberg Despised in Wisconsin Where Cerberus Lives Up to Name
"Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Just about everyone in Kimberly, Wisconsin, hates billionaire Stephen Feinberg"...
how are holiday sales ? robust ?
A couple of summers working on the new collective farms will re-educate the financiers.
Jas,
Where do you see the stock market and RE market fall to? What's the bottom?
1987
1974
1932
N.G.
how are holiday sales ? robust ?
\t Thaksin
Thaksin | 12.23.08 - 12:31 pm | #
----
I heard it was a terrible last weekend before Christmas, but no numbers reported (FWIW - NPR) "Among the worst in six years" whatever than means.
Jas,
Where do you see the stock market
New Guy | 12.23.08 - 12:33 pm | #
Let me guess the repsonse, since I can't see it: "Scam markets blah blah blah dopes blah blah blah"
The best way to explain exactly how one-dimensional the IMF, Britain's Gordon Brown, and the Citi/Goldman made men who direct the US government are, can be found in the words "necessary to stimulate economic growth". For these people, the Greater Depression we now have entered in full with our eyes open and closed at the same time, is but a boring snag on the road to the liberation that huge increases in their already huge wealth will bring. And the most clever ones even recognize it as an opportunity to vastly add to their power, money and glory. To them, it's utterly inconsequential whether or not they leave hunger, death and despair in their wake. They have only one theory, and therefore it's impossible that this theory might be wrong. In a one-dimensional world, there are two directions: forward and backward. There's no sideways, let alone up and down.
Inventory, Ha.
In my neighborhood I count 6 houses vacant, have been for months, but I can not find them on any listings.
Uncut grass, same lights on 24 hours, no trash pickup, some cop visits... vandals, drug users reported.
Inventory is much more than reported.
They couldn't even hold the Santa Claus Rally until Christmas ...
Bush ...
I'm very jealous of that name:
µΨ
ron, about "buyers don't care about home prices falling, they buy anyway"...
i do care! give me a break, it's probably the most expensive purchase i'll make so obviously i want to get it right. i know people that think harder when buying a car than a house for some weird reason. not me ron.
buying at the bottom while renting for less than carrying cost of similar house is a good strategy. i also want to save on trading up and buy my definite home. that will be a kick ass (am i dreaming too high?)
anyway, the money saved goes into my retirement/college portfolio. what's wrong with that?
Bloomberg - Same-store sales in November and December may drop as much as 2 percent, the International Council of Shopping Centers said today, more than the previously projected 1 percent. That would make it the worst Christmas sales season in at least four decades.
--
"Jas, Where do you see the stock market."
New Guy,
In the grave, if your time-horizon in long-term. I have no short-term view.
Jas
Merry Market Meltdown ...
Where's the PPT when you need it ...
disclosure: I was out week ago ...
Where do you see the stock market
i see it really crashing once many people that work in finance in manhattan acknowledge they have neg equity themselves. they are mostly delusional so far.
"Jas, Where do you see the stock market."
I just snorted my orange juice. The shills on CNBC are asking guests about 2009 and this one guy said he expects a "7" and she gasps in her mic "a seven!" by accident.
This is an global economic war, so I look for continued fighting. This is essentially WW lll, thus weak hands will be ripped away from retarded investments and cash will be in short supply during this period of deflation.
Ame
Re: ""The past couple of quarters have been really weak and if anything, I'm afraid it may indicate a really bad fourth quarter," said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re in New York."
Rob Dawg,
Heard that, loved it.
re Bob Mologna's comment ways back, about Wells not listing FCs.
I vauely recall around May, after the Credit Suisse report (1st version) someone pointed out that Wells was a major player in the Alt-Adjustible mortages. The CS report showed that the resets on these products will begin in early 2009, and peak in the latter part of 2011.
It could be that WF is now looking at moving up that reset-timeline, and wondering when their geyser blows.
OK, all you PPT tinfoil hat wearers..... if you really think they're out there buying equities, don't whine about it.... step up and buy stocks for yourself, right here, right now. Come on, you know you want to.... Timmy and Hankie will bail you out!
More anecdotal.... I'm both a realtor and a GC. My wife gets cookbooks from Goodwill and my boys get robot masks made from empty 12 pack boxes and tin foil (keeps out the mind rays...
Of course, the wife also gets a small tin of goose foie gras with black truffles. A man can't live on toast points alone.
-5% GDP growth possible ?
Rob Dawg writes:
The "business of America is business." - Calvin Coolidge
The "business of America is government." - Barak Obama
Rob Dawg | H
I think perhaps after all this we will realize that the Business of AMERICANS is government..We are reaping the consequences of 30 years of ideology that "government is bad and is the enemy" Perhaps if Americans devoted as much time to ensuring that their government runs effectively as they do watching American Idol we might have a chance in the future. If we wish to be opiated by the equivalent of Roman gladiators we will end up like Rome.
Reflation(inflation) will beat the deflationary pressures next year, waiting for the FED and Treas. to lend directly to circumvent the banks' reluctance.
Warp speed scotty.. let's increase the velocity.
OK, all you PPT tinfoil hat wearers..... if you really think they're out there buying equities, don't whine about it.... step up and buy stocks for yourself, right here, right now. Come on, you know you want to.... Timmy and Hankie will bail you out!
Eric | 12.23.08 - 12:50 pm | #
Eric, Eric, Eric.... sigh. The markets don't even open for 3 hours. Besides, in case you haven't noticed the PPT on works when deployed sparingly. I suspect most here can see the diminishing returns from their efforts and actually welcome the pumps as opportunities to catch better short positions. When the PPT goes "EPIC FAIL" as we all know is inevitable the plunge will put previous drops into footnote status.
Bob Mologna(Unrated) writes:
\tMore anecdotal.... I'm both a realtor and a GC. My wife gets cookbooks from Goodwill and my boys get robot masks made from empty 12 pack boxes and tin foil (keeps out the mind rays...
Bob Mologna | 12.23.08 - 12:50 pm | #
Go, Bob. Our local Goodwill opened an entire separate bookstore this year -- with only the better donations in top shape -- and it does a great business. I'm sure it'll be the source of more than a few presents this year.
GM Investors Bet Lifeline From U.S. Wont Be Enough
GM Investors Bet Lifeline From U.S. Won’t Be Enough (Update5) - Bloomberg.com
There is a high likelihood of a GM bankruptcy, Standard & Poors said yesterday in reducing the rating on the companys unsecured debt to C, or 11 grades below investment quality. Robert Schulz, an S&P analyst in New York, said creditors can expect negligible recovery should the automaker default.
I think the only high priced home to sale in my area was the one sold to Bush and he paid top dollar.
FFDIC | 12.23.08 - 11:31 am | #
From what I can tell, the upper-end in Dallas is decimated. Excepting, of course, the HP/UP area.
-5% (annualized) is already what the economists' consensus is for q4.
Shares of FirstEnergy Corp. dropped Tuesday after the utility challenged Ohio state regulators' decision to halt proposed increases in electric rates.
Uh Oh !
CNBC : Madoff client suing the SEC names Cox ...
Bailout for Madoff Clients Next ?
~~~~
Michelle Caboosa Cabeza calls for elimination of the SEC ...
"The real story of America is: Crooks and Dopes. The rest are merely the details."
If we learn nothing else from all of this...
The markets don't even open for 3 hours.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 12:55 pm | #
Since the PPT is such new software, I wonder if they have it programmed correctly for tomorrow.
I'd love to see the markets down about 400 at 1pm, and then close.
"TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
CNBC : Madoff client suing the SEC names Cox ...
Yay! they oughta be sued off their pants and look at the CFTC as well with regards to PMs.
On charities/non-profits:
There are some charities moving to the best model I've heard of for covering expenses. Basically the board is responsible for paying all of the overhead each year, so that 100% of outside contributions can go to program activities.
Kills three birds with one stone.
1) Outside contributors know that all their money goes to program efforts
2) Overhead costs likely to be controlled by board that has skin in the game
3) You get a board that is actively involved in things rather than do-nothing directors only interested in networking and polishing their resume.
Hopes Fading for a Holiday Rally in Small Caps
Hopes Fading for a Holiday Rally in Small Caps - WSJ.com
Investors bailed on consumer-discretionary, materials and energy names Monday, dimming hopes for a holiday rally for small-capitalization sto
re : jealous bitch
"11 grades below investment quality"
That's a nice way of putting it. I would have also accepted 'Zimbabwean,' or 'toxic.
Madoff fund mgr. who lost $1.4B commits suicide. I would to if I was him
--
"This is an global economic war, so I look for continued fighting. This is essentially WW lll, thus weak hands will be ripped away from retarded investments and cash will be in short supply during this period of deflation."
At least someone here not a dope. Good to see.
Jas
Fund manager for Madoff, De La Villehuchet found dead of "suicide." Damn those Mossad are good. And fast.
JESUS SAVES...NOT ANYMORE!
"Churches turn to Chapter 11 in book of bankruptcy - December 23, 2008
WSJ Online - During this holiday season of hard times, not even houses of God have been spared. Some lenders believe more churches than ever have fallen behind on loans or defaulted this year. Some churches, and at least one company that specialized in church lending, have filed for bankruptcy.
Church giving is down as much as 15% in some places, pastors and lenders report. We are seeing more stress in churches than we have in modern history, says Mark G.Holbrook, president and chief executive of the Evangelical Christian Credit Union of Brea, Calif., which specializes in lending to churches.
The credit union has moved to foreclose on seven of its 2,000 member churches this year, and Mr. Holbrook says he expects to take similar action against two more next year. Before now, it had foreclosed on only two churches in its 45-year history..."
What puzzles me is why they will not reveal where the trillions went. I am not a big fan of tinfoil but it is worrisome.
What are they afraid to reveal? Why has nothing leaked? If the lads were talking martial law then they would be able to justify, and do, anything.
Something really wrong, or really major is out there that they going to let the incoming admin deal with.
Oh, I was watching a Reba music video. She pulls up to the house in a Camry. A Camry!
Ya', those charities are such pricks /snark
xxxxx | 12.23.08 - 11:12 am |
You got it right, xxxxx, except for the /snark. Don't even mention their funding of illegal ethnic cleansing in occupied Palestine in violation of State Department directives.
Here's an example of a 'charity' specialized, so it seems, in ethnic supremacism:
"To be a Jew, to live fully as a Jew, is to be a blessing to all humanity, and that calling, which dates back to God's first conversation with Abraham, has taken a potentially catastrophic hit," said Rabbi William Hamilton of Congregation Kehillath Israel in Brookline. "When one considers the number of philanthropies that have been dedicated to fulfilling that calling that have been crippled or destroyed by Mr. Madoff's desecration of God's name, I don't believe we've even begun to appreciate the historic setback."
Source: The Boston Globe, December 22, 2008
Jewish leaders bracing for Madoff fallout
Charities face closings; anti-Semitism feared
Jewish leaders bracing for Madoff fallout - The Boston Globe
"Michelle Caboosa Cabeza calls for elimination of the SEC ..."
I would totally agree with her with only a slight change in prepositions: "of" --> "on"
Damn those Mossad are good. And fast.
Adam Sandler scares the bejeepers out of me.
Mother attack update:
Pushed his/her/their way into the house on pretext of getting a glass of water. She must have fought back, 'cause he pushed her down the (spiral) basement stairs.
She purposefully played dead, so she wouldn't be attacked any more, attacker(s) went upstairs to loot house and she and her 10 broken ribs got to the phone and called 911 and they ran away.
That's my mom.
But, bad news, her heart acting up.
Saw this trailer on Bloomberg last nite, UK GDP -0.6%. Here's the detail:
Britain's economy shrank at the fastest rate since 1990 in the third quarter, largely because of sharp falls in output from hotels, restaurants and the financial sector, as well as manufacturers including carmakers.
UK economy shrank 0.6% from July to September |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
The UK's gross domestic product fell by 0.6% in the July to September period, not by 0.5% as previously reported, the Office for National Statistics said this morning. The annual growth rate of 0.3% was the weakest since 1992. City economists had not expected any revision.
From BofA, London: "It's essentially showing that the recession was somewhat worse already in the third quarter than we had previously thought ... The decline we are likely to see in the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year will be substantially worse than what we have seen in the third quarter. It really does paint an exceptionally gloomy picture about the speed with which the UK economy has lapsed into recession."
"Perhaps if Americans devoted as much time to ensuring that their government runs effectively as they do watching American Idol we might have a chance in the future. "
Do you honestly believe the problem with government is that it's not run effectively? They're are universal truths, and the idea that a large beurocracy can be managed to the benefit of anyone is not one of them.
ova writes:
What puzzles me is why they will not reveal where the trillions went. I am not a big fan of tinfoil but it is worrisome.
What are they afraid to reveal? Why has nothing leaked? If the lads were talking martial law then they would be able to justify, and do, anything.
It went to the illegal purchase of US treasuries. Paulson and the bank honchos he met with would all be indicted(LOL) if the truth came out
lawyerliz | 12.23.08 - 1:03 pm |
Damn. Sorry for her. She sounds like a tough old bird. I wish her well.
lawyerliz | 12.23.08 - 1:03 pm
sorry to hear about your mother... best of luck ...
Brevard mall report: Hub went to get me things like gloves, hat, socks, since I own none of the above, to wear in Baltimore, and said the mall was very busy. Mall across the street very busy too.
"Here's an example of a 'charity' specialized, so it seems, in ethnic supremacism:..."
Are you serious? Hyperbole?????
You obviously have never been between a Methodist and a Baptist. Or a Trojan and a Bruin.
lawyerliz writes:
But, bad news, her heart acting up.
Good luck, Liz.
We'll make sure Pavel prays for her later today so the prayers are good and holy and go direct to the Virgin Mary and Pope John Paul.
Anonymous | 12.23.08 - 1:05 pm |
Why would Treasuries be a big deal?
lawyerliz | 12.23.08 - 1:03 pm
Sorry to hear that. Similar thing happened to my landlady in London while my wife was there. The local police asked when called if we wanted them to bother coming around or not.
Banker's Nude Suicide in 5-Star London Hotel - Banking - Gawker
Madoff-hit French investor commits suicide: report | ABS-CBN News Online Beta
Madoff takes out two
Madoff takes out two
They took themselves out. At least Madoff had the guts to face the music.
Can I hasz Chreesmus rally puweez?
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
"OT - Those looking for a nearterm possible low on USO: the 1 to 1 A-B=C-D price projection is 28.69."
Have you converted from short to long? What is your trading horizon? Thanks for your posts.
"At least Madoff had the guts to face the music.
Anonymous"
Madoff sure has guts. Right.
I must admit, I'm still baffled by the apparent truism that manages to assert that large bureaucracies run by corporations are good and efficient and to be trusted in all circumstances and large bureaucracies run by the government are the exact opposite. I must have been out sick that day of social programming in pre-school.
WSJ Online - During this holiday season of hard times, not even houses of God have been spared. Some lenders believe more churches than ever have fallen behind on loans or defaulted this year. Some churches, and at least one company that specialized in church lending, have filed for bankruptcy.
one_timmy | 12.23.08 - 1:00 pm | #
This is a bad time to be a church with a mortgage. Some that I know are running lean, very lean. One bad bump in giving, or unexpected expense, and they could be toast.
They took themselves out. At least Madoff had the guts to face the music.
Anonymous | 12.23.08 - 1:12 pm | #
HAH! Care to make book on him actually ever spending a day in jail?
"The business of America is business."
Thornton Mellon.
" I'm still baffled by the apparent truism that..."
You missed it. That truism went out in the early nineties. What's still around, though, is the belief that an Ivy League MBA qualifies anyone to do anything.
Fun to see Yun use the word "crash" regarding stocks, and words like "softening" when talking about real estate over the last few years.
The "business of America is business." - Calvin Coolidge
The "business of America is government." - Barak Obama
Let's add:
"The government of America is business" - George Bush
lawyerliz writes:
But, bad news, her heart acting up.
So sorry to hear about your mother. But, the bit about playing possum, i'll remember just in case.... (old, smart and tough... don't see many of that model any more)
"At least Madoff had the guts to face the music.
Anonymous"
At 70, with millions stashed away
AND a criminal USG on his side.
Haha
" Elvis writes:
"At least Madoff had the guts to face the music.
Anonymous"
Madoff sure has guts. Right.
Elvis | 12.23.08 - 1:13 pm | # "
Are there an rumors about him having terminal cancer?
Ventura County mall report. Mrs. Dawg is getting a nice purse. Shopped, Macy's, Coach, Coach outlet, Sears, Kohls and the best purse was $50 at JC Penny. Better than the $285 Macy's second best choice and the Coach crap @ $400+ were just a joke. Very busy, tough parking but spaces available. Traffic sucked dead donkeys. Really bad. Must have looked at 2000 purses. Resembled a GM dealership lot or the Port of Hueneme auto storage expansion facility. The US has way too much in the pipeline and on the shelves.
HAH! Care to make book on him actually ever spending a day in jail?
The real culprits are the enforcement agencies. As to what happens to him, who knows. People may even want to take him out!
Can I hasz Chreesmus rally puweez?
~~~~
That's postponed until december 2011 ...
Dow 3500 to 4000 ...
"Brevard mall report: Hub went to get me things like gloves, hat, socks, since I own none of the above, to wear in Baltimore, and said the mall was very busy."
Buying stuff made abroad with credit cards is a sign of healthy economy, right?
There will be no hope until FACTORIES are busy again...
There are only two alternatives to efficient government- no government or inefficient government. No government is essentially the law of the jungle which is actually government by a different form- the biggest and meanest govern. Or you get inefficient government which is what we had. So which one would you prefer?
The decline continues..
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -17 784
There is an entire division of Madoff's inside the FDIC fudging the bank's books.
Why would Treasuries be a big deal?
nova
Need an atty. or bond guy or girl to explain but, Fed can't buy US Treasuries via sterilized market derivatives through a third party using tax payer money
"Brevard mall report: Hub went to get me things like gloves, hat, socks, since I own none of the above, to wear in Baltimore, and said the mall was very busy."
Glad to know you have underwear. Just saying.
Saying a prayer for your mother's speedy recovery.
lawyerliz writes:
As much as Madoff should be in custody it would be a logistical and security nightmare for the authorities. Best for all that he takes care of his own well being for the moment.
Dawg -- It sounds like he was just one of the duped -- to the tune of $1.4 BILLION:
Thierry Magon de La Villehuchet, who ran a fund that invested with Bernard Madoff, was found dead at his Madison Avenue office today, a New York City police officer at the scene said. The death appeared to be a suicide, he said.
De la Villehuchet, 65, was a founding partner and chief executive officer of Access International Advisors, according to a marketing document. Access invested $1.4 billion with Madoff, who was arrested on Dec. 11 for allegedly running a $50 billion Ponzi scheme.
Madoff Fund Operator De La Villehuchet Found Dead (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
take yr pick ..
The
[x] Government
[ ] Business
of
[x] America
[ ] Canada
[ ] Mexico
[ ] Botswana
is
[x] Business
[ ] Government
[ ] Cattle Raising
[ ] a Drug Cartel
[ ] Making Cars
signed by
[x] Cal Coolidge
[ ] Frankie Roosevelt
[ ] Herbie Hoover
[ ] Barry O'bama
I remember a time when a 2B fraud that took down a particular bank was made into a movie.
Madoff's scandal pales in comparison to what's happening at the big banks.
Wonder if they'll make another movie.
I managed to notice the MBA one, but as I'd already stopped stuffing teeth under my pillow and leaving out plates of cookies in December, I merely filed it under "huh?" and moved on. I'm clearly ready to be deported.
And, even given that the business of America is business, how's that current business model working out there guys?
Anonymous writes:
They took themselves out. At least Madoff had the guts to face the music.
Burden to their families, embarassment to their firms and families, rtremendous expense for the state. The "guts" to face the music only matter if you're a prosecuting attorney.
Why should they stick around to be your patsy, Mr. DA?
Rob Dawg writes:
Fund manager for Madoff, De La Villehuchet found dead of "suicide." Damn those Mossad are good. And fast.
Ain't that the truth? LOL
And, even given that the business of America is business, how's that current business model working out there guys?
~~~~
'Bout as good as your countries' business model ... where ever you are ...
Read a book about high income careers 10 years ago. I remember being surprised by the amount of upper middle class($150,000 a year+) wages were earned in sales.
Tough to see the next two years producing that sort of income in selling anything.
"OK, all you PPT tinfoil hat wearers..... if you really think they're out there buying equities, don't whine about it.... step up and buy stocks for yourself, right here, right now. Come on, you know you want to.... Timmy and Hankie will bail you out!"
--------------------------------
Fed said in connection with yesterday's agency coupon pass that they were done for the year. Today they did another $1.6 billion on the heels of the housing news. That should be enough to ensure an up close.
Tough to see the next two years producing that sort of income in selling anything.
~~~~
Prepackaged bankruptcies ... until
Legal Zoom Bankruptcies !
Hedge Fund Redemptions May Crash Q1 Markets Seeking Alpha is finally talking about hedge fund redemptions. The 800lb gorilla in my opinion. Ties in with Madoff.
Must be some big bucks if pajamas. Pajamagram.com has been running a lot of ads.
I can't wait for them to go away!
Madoff is a distraction as is the TARP.
Trillions are being spent or promised while everyone focuses on a measly 350B.
As for investors with Madoff, I have no sympathy for them, if you don't do your due diligence, you deserve what you get.
Hedge Fund Redemptions May Crash Q1 Markets Seeking Alpha is finally talking about hedge fund redemptions. The 800lb gorilla in my opinion. Ties in with Madoff.
~~~~
I was sayin' this a couple days back ...
All the billionaires want their money back ... NOW!
Madoff's scandal pales in comparison to what's happening at the big banks.
Wonder if they'll make another movie.
\t Anonymous | \t \t \t \t12.23.08 - 1:23 pm | #
---------------------------------------------------------
I heard that they couldn't line up financing.
scav writes:
I must admit, I'm still baffled by the apparent truism that manages to assert that large bureaucracies run by corporations are good and efficient and to be trusted in all circumstances and large bureaucracies run by the government are the exact opposite. I must have been out sick that day of social programming in pre-school.
scav | 12.23.08 - 1:14 pm | #
Scav,
My inner Hayek was mumbling to itself about Hayek's critique of government central planning and thinking large national and international businesses are central planners also.
Does that mean we are all doomed?
In the olden days there were lots of businesses providing the same goods and services and if some of them failed so be it. Now with the globalized world we can't let any business fail.
It is a strange world we live in. Wonder what it will look like to the grandkids?
being driven to hell in a handbasket by a idiots with MBAs, so? My job as a citizen to cheer the driver?
at what point to stock prices stop meaning anything? we are perioulsy close
"But a core issue, analysts say, is that regulators, politicians and investors are too cozy with financial powerhouses to act independently."
Wall St regulators slept through Madoff fraud: analysts | ABS-CBN News Online Beta
The real culprits are the enforcement agencies.
Ted Butler asks why banks are in the silver business year after year.
The page cannot be found
One answer from this guy. The powers that be are looking for riskless trades
http://www.contrahour.com/ItsJustTimeMartinArmstrong.pdf
Vote for One:
[ ] idiot with M.B.A.
[ ] idiot with tenure.
There are no other choices.
at what point to stock prices stop meaning anything? we are perioulsy close
S | 12.23.08 - 1:34 pm | #
When Erin Burnette can only find work on the pole.
Would it be possible for Madoff to plead guilty in return for a sentencing before the New Year and then quickly get into Bush's pardon line ?
Lawyer Liz,
My best wishes for your Mother's speedy recovery. The anger and fear left after a brutal attack are also very debilitating. I hope that passes as well.
at what point to stock prices stop meaning anything? we are perioulsy close
\t S | \t \t \t \t12.23.08 - 1:34 pm | #
------------------------------------
They will start meaning something when (i) the hedge funds have sufficiently unloaded, or (ii) the Fed and Treasury run out of bullets.
One important trend to analyze is the seasonality of inventory. Here in the DC area we have seen overall inventory declines. The seasonality however has diminished. My guess is that because REO and foreclosures make up the bulk of the market and are not dictated by the typical selling season they are reducing the typical seasonal variation.
I'm not sure if this trend is national but if so it will make YOY comparisons difficult during non-peak season.
I heard that they couldn't line up financing.
Anoddamoose
Lol.
Would it be possible for Madoff to plead guilty in return for a sentencing before the New Year and then quickly get into Bush's pardon line ?
Not necessary, bearly. Person doesn't have to be charged to be pardoned. Some speculation that Cheney will be pardoned, especially after he's recently admitted to knowing about torture.
[ii) the Fed and Treasury run out of bullets]
That is the key and it only occurs as a result of market discipine, coinciding with a rapid decline in the value of the dollar. Ben & Hank are pressing their luck.
There are some charities moving to the best model I've heard of for covering expenses. Basically the board is responsible for paying all of the overhead each year, so that 100% of outside contributions can go to program activities.
Curmudgeon | 12.23.08 - 12:59 pm | #
Good idea. The charity, for which I kept the books twenty years ago, did this. The only complication was that GAAP required that we treat the cost of overhead (salaries of charity's staff, full medical/dental/vision for staff, rent for really nice office space shared with a hedge fund, etc.) as "in-kind" contributions. This meant that the the ratio of administration costs (covered by the directors) to program expenditures (stuff actually done with donations from outside donors) looked worse that it actually was.
I must admit, I'm still baffled by the apparent truism that manages to assert that large bureaucracies run by corporations are good and efficient and to be trusted in all circumstances and large bureaucracies run by the government are the exact opposite. I must have been out sick that day of social programming in pre-school.
scav | 12.23.08 - 1:14 pm | #
Yes, it is really about large sclerotic bureaucracies, government or corporate. Why this isn't obvious to everyone is curious to me.
Also scav, I am also a 1st time home buyer on the sidelines. $20,000 is a lot of money to me and $200,000 is a @$#&load. I want to be in a neighborhood for a long time but hell, I might have to move for a job and I want some money for retirement. Paying down an extra 200,000 and interest is not good no matter what kind of buyer you are.
I am on the sidelines watching the carnage.
Yun hopes? feh.
dilbert - agreed, although I'd come at it from the monoculture / species-richness biome line of thought, just because of where I got most of my education. We've certainly managed to build large complex systems and then driven them to brittleness and beyond. No redundencies and fall-back positions, no flex, damn little cushion in the face of problems. Doomed? Depends on who the "we" is.
dilbert dogbert writes:
It is a strange world we live in. Wonder what it will look like to the grandkids?
Like you were living in a dying global state-system whose every bureaucratic niche had been throughly infiltrated on a global scale by vested interests.
I have to go into NYC tomorrow.
I think I'm gonna hurl a pair of shoes at at a random group of bankers in the financial district.
[ ] idiot with M.B.A.
[x] idiot with tenure.
Tough call.
Red Pill,
My coach always said coming in second ain't all that bad...
and the view from the sidelines is better than from the high priced seats...
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Thierry Magon de La Villehuchet, who ran a fund that invested with Bernard Madoff, was found dead at his Madison Avenue office today, a New York City police officer at the scene said. The death appeared to be a suicide, he said.
This is the first American banker suicide I've heard of. I'd heard of several Euros.
Speed Racer writes:
Must be some big bucks if pajamas. Pajamagram.com has been running a lot of ads.
God me too. What the hell would I want to buy that when the models look like idiots prancing around in a pajama? Turns me off. Now something skimpy and tight is what I would send. A thong-a-gram!
I think I'm gonna hurl a pair of shoes at at a random group of bankers in the financial district.
Remember to practice lest you end up like the other guy.
ew thread
"Yes, it is really about large sclerotic bureaucracies, government or corporate. Why this isn't obvious to everyone is curious to me."
It is obvious. But what would you reduce...medicare, ss, fema, femla, dod, fha, ffa, etc.? We're accustomed to the largesse. The enemy is us.
How about going back to the days when banks couldn't cross state lines?
Lawyerliz writes:
"Mother attack update:"
Physical assaults on elderly causing bodily injury should be treated as hate crimes with elevated penalties including mandatory time.
Faber:
Faber Says 2009 to Be `Catastrophic' for Global Economy
well, until Exxon, Citi, MickeySoft, Enron and those ilk universally and uni-laterially off themselves in hotel rooms, I'll keep FEMA, medicare and the IRS et. al. I'm not about to disarm myself because you have an unrealized theory of the rapture.
Comrade V-
Don't be a softie..
I say we throw them, rapists, murderers and child molesters into a big boat, head out to the farallon islands, set up some chum, cut the back of thier legs, hook them just behind the neck and start trolling..
We as a nation became pacified..too many criminal rights...1800's style justice suits me fine....
I would wager 100 heck even 100000 SRS shares that crime would go down...
and here is what will happen..
http://greatwhitesharkexpeditions.com/assets/great_white_shark_flying.jpg
It could be that WF is now looking at moving up that reset-timeline, and wondering when their geyser blows.
ChefVisar | 12.23.08 - 12:49 pm |
It is my understanding that they are big in the HELOC world, too. Will have to dig through Mr Mortgage for links.
The "business of America is corruption and theft from future generations." - George W Bush
"Rob Dawg writes:
Ventura County mall report. Mrs. Dawg is getting a nice purse. Shopped, Macy's, Coach, Coach outlet, Sears, Kohls and the best purse was $50 at JC Penny. Better than the $285 Macy's second best choice and the Coach crap @ $400+ were just a joke. Very busy, tough parking but spaces available."
I was at same Camarillo Outlet mall yesterday. Insane shortage of small sizes. Nothing to be found for me or my wife. It is a big destination for Japanese and Chinese tourists to shop. They scooped up most of what us thinner-than-average Americans would have gotten.
S writes:
at what point to stock prices stop meaning anything? we are perioulsy close
S | 12.23.08 - 1:34 pm | #
The truth is that they have never mattered but the policy makers have behaved in manner as though they are the only things that matter. The sooner we stop focusing on stock prices and worrying about what is "good for the markets" the better off we will be. This myopic focus on markets is equivalent of a parenting style that seeks to get the approval of the kids!
cd writes:
We as a nation became pacified..too many criminal rights...1800's style justice suits me fine....
You can let them destroy the country and they still don't learn a damn thing.
When do we start in on the "1800s style justice" for the Bushies?
The shills on CNBC are asking guests about 2009 and this one guy said he expects a "7" and she gasps in her mic "a seven!" by accident.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 12:43 pm | #
Whoosh! That one sailed right over my head. What in the hell does that mean?
anyone have a graph of house price to median income? that is the only relationship that matters at this point.
Father knows best:
Looks like I picked the wrong decade to quit boozin it.