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As Mark Twain said, there are lies, damn lies, and CR charts.
First. . . to zero!
Whoops; I got the attribution wrong. Apologies to Benjamin Disraeli.
No time to check these things when going for first post
Nothing to see all priced in, just ask Hank.
I'm a shadow seller, waiting and I know several people in the same boat!!
Can't wait to see the first graph updated to finally reach an X with sales falling below inventory.
OCDan, If the NAR had used a different seasonal adjustement, I think we'd be there (Inventory above sales). Oh well ... it will probably happen soon.
Best Wishes.
So, lots of supply meeting constrained demand. Hmmmn.
...anyone know if the housing bubble has burst yet...just asking.
Nemo is back.
I've been wondering how Nemo is always first. And then it struck me. Nemo spelled backwards is "OMEN".
Spooky. At least it's not "redrum"!
The Red & Blue are almost kissing - hell, they'll be making out next year!
Hey CR, did you ever do a post on how the seasonal adjustments are calculated, exactly?
In particular...
If you sum the seasonally-adjusted sales and then sum the not-seasonally-adjusted sales for any 12 month period, do you necessarily get the same number? Or does the 12 month period have to be Jan-Dec? Or is this just never true?
I'm a shadow buyer.
Are we going to 3M annual rate?
Can I haz an interest-free house?
ARW writes:
Are we going to 3M annual rate?
ARW | 12.23.08 - 1:51 pm | #
In auto sales...yes
...anyone know if the housing bubble has burst yet...just asking.
Bubble? no bubble. Bubbles can only pop once. This is more one of those Wiley Coyote moments where you think nothing more bad can happen and it does. The big rock is swinging up over his head and about to take him and the cliff edge he is standing on down the ravine.
CR said:
And although REO sales will continue to be significant in 2009, they will probably slow some as foreclosures move up the price range.
Why is this? Are there fewer homes in the higher price range? Are the owners more well-heeled and able to avoid REO's? Do buyers from lower price ranges somehow cushion drops from higher ones?
From earlier graphs it seems like there is a huge number of Option ARMs and Alt-A that will recast in 2009 and 2010, and it will take a while before the owners are foreclosed and the banks can sell them as REO's - which would ensure an elevated level of REO's for the next couple of years. So why the drop?
Now I get it! Big mystery solved. Nemo must be a SEC official! All the time in the world...feel like checking that pesky Madoff case yet?
We need a form of McCarthyism to make a comeback with the focus on investigating finance and regulators.
Politicians should be lining up in congress to investigate the crimes being committed. They aren't and asking why leaves no satisfactory answer.
Something incredibly wrong has happened and the truth is too big and damaging to be revealed.
[so existing home inventory levels will probably stay elevated for some time.]
The new permanently high plateau.
From earlier graphs it seems like there is a huge number of Option ARMs and Alt-A that will recast in 2009 and 2010
Won't refinancing to lower rates mitigate recasting severity?
Won't refinancing to lower rates mitigate recasting severity?
asl hearts lenin | 12.23.08 - 1:58 pm | #
LOL!!!!!!!!!!
I think they should raise my taxes to pay for your house.
Wholesale gasoline trading @ <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html>84 cents. . . !!
OT and FYI, I just locked in my re-fi quote at 4.75%.
Rob Dawg writes:
Bubble? no bubble. Bubbles can only pop once.
It's awfully hard to limit what people do with their incomes. If the Obama stimulus gets cash to the masses too quickly, before enough pain has been felt, the speculative fever of the past decade may still be running in enough people's minds that they may turn around and start "investing" in REO's etc.
Or do you think everyone is now wiser?
Or do you think everyone is now wiser?
Hymns for the Lord | 12.23.08 - 2:01 pm | #
Uh huh... that's it.
crispy&cole writes:
Won't refinancing to lower rates mitigate recasting severity?
asl hearts lenin | 12.23.08 - 1:58 pm | #
LOL!!!!!!!!!!
crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 2:00 pm | #
Why not? It was a serious question.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
"Wholesale gasoline trading @ 84 cents. . . !!"
Have you gone long, or still on fence? Just curious. Your recent calls have been good (I still can't stop laughing over your goldbug ditty)
asl hearts lenin writes:
crispy&cole writes:
Won't refinancing to lower rates mitigate recasting severity?
asl hearts lenin | 12.23.08 - 1:58 pm | #
LOL!!!!!!!!!!
crispy&cole | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 2:00 pm | #
Why not? It was a serious question.
asl hearts lenin | 12.23.08 - 2:03 pm | #
Option ARMs for Dummies: Why 4.5 Percent Mortgages Rates will do Absolutely Nothing for these Toxic Assets. » Dr. Housing Bubble Blog
jumping out of windows is SOOOO 1929:
Madoff Fund Operator De La Villehuchet Found Dead (Update1)
Email | Print | A A A
By Saijel Kishan and Katherine Burton
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Thierry Magon de La Villehuchet, who ran a fund that invested with Bernard Madoff, was found dead at his office today in an apparent suicide, according to a police officer at the scene.
De la Villehuchet, 65, was a co-founder and chief executive officer of Access International Advisors, according to a marketing document. Access, based in New York, invested $1.4 billion with Madoff, who was arrested on Dec. 11 for allegedly running a $50 billion Ponzi scheme.
Police were called to the Madison Avenue office about 7:30 a.m., said New York Police spokeswoman Doris Otero. She declined to provide a cause of death.
Before founding Access in 1994 with Patrick Littaye, de La Villehuchet was chairman and CEO of Credit Lyonnais Securities USA, the U.S. investment banking arm of the French bank, according to Access marketing documents. Prior to joining Credit Lyonnais in 1987, he ran Interfinance, an international broker firm specializing in French, Belgian and Italian stock markets that he founded in 1983.
Accesss LUXALPHA SICAV-American Selection invested solely with Madoff. Access said last week that it was working with lawyers to assess the situation.
Clients of Madoff had at least $36 billion with his firm, according to a Bloomberg tally that may include some double counting. Before his arrest, Madoff, 70, confessed to employees that his giant Ponzi scheme may have cost as much as $50 billion, according to an FBI complaint.
His misconduct may have stretched back to at least the 1970s, two people familiar with the governments inquiry of Madoff said last week. Madoff is now under house arrest at his New York apartment.
To contact the reporters on this story: Saijel Kishan in New York at skishan@bloomberg.netKatherine Burton in New York at kburton@bloomberg.net
Why not? It was a serious question.
asl hearts lenin | 12.23.08 - 2:03 pm | #
If you're in a $500,000 house that you can't afford on your current salary, there's no chance of you being able to refi.
Rob Dawg writes:
Bubble? no bubble. Bubbles can only pop once.
~~~~
But the housing bubble was sitting on the 50 trillion $ debt bubble ...
and then there is the new Treasuries bubble ...
Bubbles , bubbles everywhere ...
"wholesale gasoline trading at 84 cents"
Wait.....that will be fixed to the tune of the next comm. bubble
Where else are these I-banks going to find or chase yield?
The summer was a prelude to what will happen next year.
Ciao
MS
Why not? It was a serious question.
asl hearts lenin | 12.23.08 - 2:03 pm | #
In the sense that bandaid can "mitigate" a gaping axe wound to the neck, you are correct.
But it is still laughable. So you're both right!
Between low rates and ever more serious loan mods I think the option arm recast issue will be mitigated.
Mitigated is not eliminated. But I think the servicers will find out who can afford an amortizing loan at market rates and fix the loan at that amount forgiving negative amortization. Foreclose on the rest of them. A lot of people will say that is the majority of option-arm holders. We don't have enough data to decide what it is yet and so the arguments can go either way. People always looking at the worst case scenario miss the possibility of a middle or best-case scenario.
I think the option-arm issue will be solved sooner rather than later through foreclosure or modification.
[If you're in a $500,000 house that you can't afford on your current salary, there's no chance of you being able to refi.
Eric ]
Even if you can afford the refi on your current salary and the property appraises at 250k no lender will lend.
Only 1 way out. I heard yesterday on bubblevision that defaulting on a mortgage is, "turning a quick profit".
My take, cross posted from Zacks.com:
Today is a big day for housing data, and none of it looks good. I will tackle the existing home sales in this post and then put out a later post on the new home sales data. In November nationwide, existing home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million, down 8.6% from 4.91 million in October and down 10.6% from a year ago. All regions of the country were down on a month to month basis. The worst hit was the Northeast (-12.0%) followed by the South (-10.9%). The Midwest was down 7.4% while the West held up relatively well, down just 4.3%. On a year over year basis, the West really stands out as an exception, being up 17.9%, as the other regions were all down between 16 and 18%. However, in many important parts of California, more than half of all existing house sales now involve houses that have been foreclosed on.
Housing inventory actually increased slightly with 4.203 million houses available for sale, up from 4.198 million last month, but down slightly from 4,217 million a year ago. Falling sales with steady inventory leads to higher months supply (think of it as an inventory turnover rate). The months supply rose to 11.2 months, matching the high for this cycle set back in April, from 10.3 months in October and 10.1 months a year ago. In a healthy market, months supply are usually around 5 months, and at the height of the boom fell below 4 months. Prices also fell both month to month (median down 2.8%, average down 2.3%) and year over year (median down 13.2%, mean down 12.3%).
Falling transactions, static inventories, and falling prices. Even though mortgages are getting cheaper, following Treasury note levels down to absurdly low levels, they are only available to those with spotless credit. Even there, what happens to the banks that make these mortgages when interest rates go back up as they inevitably will? They will be stuck unless they unload them on Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE), in that case we the taxpayers will be stuck with them. Relative to rents and incomes, housing prices are still too high. Thats relative to existing rents and incomes. With unemployment rising incomes will be falling, and there is a good chance that there will also be downward pressure on rents (and increased demand for refrigerator boxes, for shelter, demand for large appliances will be way down). This is not over yet folks, not by a long shot. More write downs to come throughout the banking system. Avoid banks like Comerica (CMA), Zion Bancorp (ZION) and Fifth Third (FITB).
You won't be able to refi your Arm's if your house is under water. You could come up with the cash, but I think it's better to just walk away.
My neighbor is a realtor/flipper and he bought the house beside me for 100K more than I paid and he's hurting. He can not sell the house and the RE agency he works for went TU. People are hanging on barely.
Just realized they found that guys corpse two blocks from where I'm sitting.
A reminder that so much happens in a city like this that you're never even aware of.
Between low rates and ever more serious loan mods I think the option arm recast issue will be mitigated.
~~~~~
Not with home prices falling further ... unless the mortgage holders really cut prices. Then there are those pesky MBS that have a multitude of owners spread over the world.
Only 1 way out. I heard yesterday on bubblevision that defaulting on a mortgage is, "turning a quick profit".
All I can think of when I read stuff like this is some poor clueless leveraged person realizing the fix they are in and saying "You mean that money was real?"
Timber!!!!
Down goes Frazier (and another "venerable" law firm.)
Thacher Proffitt, 160-Year-Old Law Firm, to Close (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
OT, CRE people/corporations now asking for FED welfare:
US developers seek aid from government - The Boston Globe
And finally - and probably a very important point - homeowners with negative equity, who manage to avoid foreclosure, will be stuck in their homes for years. This suggests the turnover rate - and existing home sales - will decline further.
Combined with increased refinancing by the gullible, it will lead to (slowly) falling prices for years to come. Welcome to Japan, in this particular case.
"You mean that money was real?"
~~~~
Just wait until Jan 2 ... after Madoff every hedge fund investor is gonna want their money back ...
hundreds of billions !
I think the option-arm issue will be solved sooner rather than later through foreclosure or modification.
® | 12.23.08 - 2:10 pm | #
lol!!!!!!!!!
Many option-arms were portfolio loans which makes them modifying them easier.
And you can refi your loan, though not an option-arm obviously, with your home underwater if you are in a FHA loan. It is called a streamlined refi. Fannie/Freddie are looking at doing the exact same thing.
® writes:
Many option-arms were portfolio loans which makes them modifying them easier.
~~~~
How many ? got a % ?
To suggest that foreclosure or loan mods will happen sooner rather than later on Option-Arms is a real stretch C&C. You really don't ever get tired of being wrong.
Ssshhh.... kermit is coming!
mmckinl,
I do not have a %, but if you look at DSL and Countrywide as an example. One of the reasons they were so screwed is because of the number of option-arms held on the books and not securitized.
How have those mods worked out so far...
® writes:
~~~~
And then there is the "re-foreclosure rate" ... about 55% I see ...
And then there are jobs ... going away ...
Sorry, no koolaide for me ...
Just posted in the local Sarasota Herald Tribune
the median sales price plunged 13.2 percent in November to $181,300, from $208,000 a year ago. That was the lowest median price
since February 2004, the biggest year-over-year drop on records going back to 1968.
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20081223/BREAKING/812230260/2055/NEWS?Title=Home_sale_prices_plunge
"more than 500 responses to our small business survey that we started two days ago."
Tim Berry: Survey Shows Bleak Outlook on Small Business
More cheery news.
I just had my house appraised today for a refi and I asked the appraiser if the days of drive-by appraisals were over (this was a rhetorical question that I asked in a laughing manner). He replied that not if you are a cash buyer which gave me a chuckle. Anyway, we got to talking and I asked him what kind of % decreases he has been seeing in my neighborhood since 2006 and he got very skittish, saying something to the effect that it is against his professional code of ethics as a professional appraiser to speak at liberty about such things. What a joke...most of the data is readily available for anyone willing to do a little work or extrapolation. I was simply trying to get the opinion of a professional in the field. For those that know more about the profession of appraising - this can't be true right?
"jealous bitch writes:
I'm a shadow seller, waiting and I know several people in the same boat!!
jealous bitch"
If you don't mind me asking, what are your circumstances and what might your expectations be in the future? Are you underwater, waiting for peak prices to come back, what is you time frame?
"You really don't ever get tired of being wrong."
On housing I have been right on for 4 years...just saying!
One of the reasons they were so screwed is because of the number of option-arms held on the books and not securitized.
~~~~
And those portfolios are getting worse by the day ...
another OT, but a priceless comment :
The West is having this great, long cocktail party, Vilhjalmsson says. And then, late in the evening, in comes this cute little dwarf, Iceland. And he gets drunk.
Iceland ‘Like Chernobyl’ as Meltdown Shows Anger Can Boil Over - Bloomberg.com
"That was the lowest median price
since February 2004, the biggest year-over-year drop on records going back to 1968.
Sarasota Florida News, Sarasota Weather, Sports and Business | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Herald-Tribune art...e_prices_plunge
megamik | 12.23.08 - 2:25 pm | # "
No problem with getting out of that POA in FL...LOL!!!
For those that know more about the profession of appraising - this can't be true right?
~~~~
Appraisals are public knowledge on the way up and a trade secret on the way down ...
My neighbor is a realtor/flipper and he bought the house beside me for 100K more than I paid and he's hurting. He can not sell the house and the RE agency he works for went TU. People are hanging on barely.
Serf Mike
I know too many people barely hanging on. That is what "Debt Exhaustion" is doing to the economy. Oh well... the system needed this purge.
2009 will be ugly.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Wachovia $122 billion
Countrywide $25 billion
DSL $11 billion
Wamu $52 billion
From a quick googling.
Portfolio option arms for the specific company names.
Those year over year drops in the Florida medians look close to the quarter over quarter drops in the Inland Empire.
2009 will be ugly.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Neil | Homepage
Accoring to ® all is well...pass me another drink Mr. Jones
"Ssshhh.... kermit is coming!"
Timmy appears to be having a devil of a time birthing that there frog.
® - There is so much analysis out there about this and it is several years old...I am tired of aruging over issued we hased out on these housing blogs years ago...if you want to believe then be my guest
Timmy appears to be having a devil of a time birthing that there frog.
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 2:30 pm | #
Why do you hate America so much?
Portfolio option arms for the specific company names.
~~~~
Just a small % of the opt arms market ...
crispy&cole: "Accoring to ® all is well...pass me another drink Mr. Jones"
Really, where exactly do I say that? Do you have a reading comprehension issue?
You can stop the option by shadowing the QB while stuffing the middle with a fast defense like the SC trojans this year. The problem is the opposing offensive coordinator opened up the offense with a spread attack and the defense can't make the adjustment quick enough..
So sit down and drink something because your in store for a blowout of epic proportions....
Do you have a reading comprehension issue?
® | 12.23.08 - 2:31 pm | #
Not anymore thanks to the miracles of CR Companion.
crispy&cole: "Accoring to ® all is well...pass me another drink Mr. Jones"
~~~~
That's REV Jones ...
cd, i understand there defense takes prophylactic measures.
"their" defense. ugh.
Not anymore thanks to the miracles of CR Companion.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 2:33 pm | #
zing!
mmckinl:"Just a small % of the opt arms market ..."
Well according to
Dr. Housing Bubble
I just accounted for 42% of the $500 billion outstanding.
Not a small % nor near comprehensive.
Option arms were more likely to be portfolioed because the accounting for negative amortization was a desireable feature. There were of course option arm securtizations but the evidence I see suggests that the majority of option-arms are portfolio loans and portfolio loans are easier to modify.
The people who took over Wachovia and Wamu can forgive the neg-am portion of the loans and back date the loss against past profits for a big tax rebate.
"Why do you hate America so much?"
Probably has to do with the 10 years I spent in the People's Republic (of Berkeley, that is).
Anyway, we got to talking and I asked him what kind of % decreases he has been seeing in my neighborhood since 2006 and he got very skittish
He didn't want to lie and the most people can't handle the truth about their own neighborhood.
[Portfolio option arms for the specific company names]
There's a lot more pain out there than just the optionARM calamity. Many IntOnlys have a balloon at 5 & 7 yrs. Those principal amounts won't look too attractive at refi time either.
OT
Don't believe all commodities are weak. Today, food continues an impressive two-week rally, up 1.5%.
Food is a canary in the coal mine.
Be careful here shorting gold. Although gold is weak today, the trend toward backwardation continues to evolve in tiny increments.
We could be only a few days away from confirmation of the trend.
One trend you can count on for 2009 is a weak dollar.
To paraprase a homebuilder CEO, the dollar will suck all year long.
Stock up on PMs and commodities at low prices, while you can.
The thing about refi's...... you can get cheap rates right now,
a) if your mortgage balance is under $417K
b) if you have good income
c) if you have good credit
d) if your LTV is 80% or less
I can say yes to a, b, & c. d would be a nail-biter.
I find it amazing that people think that my words saying that the option-arm issue will dealt with sooner rather than later through FORECLOSURE OR loan modification are controversial.
Or that option-arms are more likely to be portfolio products, and therefore easier to modify if the banks want, than securitized.
How is any of this controversial in the least?
The people who took over Wachovia and Wamu can forgive the neg-am portion of the loans and back date the loss against past profits for a big tax rebate.
~~~~
They'll have to give back more than the neg am, a lot more ... but you are right, it will be much easier than MBS.
Unless they give much back these will be walkaways ...
Also -- I talked to a guy at WF Home Mortgage the other day to find out if a refi made sense for me. I started describing the terms of my current mortgage, and he asked me "interest-only?" as if it was the default.
Yes, I live in the SF Bay Area.
Rich, what do you think of the double-inverse dollar ETFs?
"How is any of this controversial in the least?"
It looked OK to me, but then what do I know?
R
pass that eggnog....if they start modifying principle balance of high end beach homes for millionaire wannabes, the good credit, on time payers will have to get the same or will have to add thier name to that gravy train of delinquen borrowers.....
Good luck....
bearly:"There's a lot more pain out there than just the optionARM calamity. Many IntOnlys have a balloon at 5 & 7 yrs. Those principal amounts won't look too attractive at refi time either."
A balloon at 5-7 yrs? News to me, I know many become amortization but I don't know anything about a large swatch with a balloon feature. Do you have anymore information so I can learn more?
I think the IO issue is bigger than the option-arm issue in California. Streamline refis will help but by help I mean they will ensure that it will keep the suckers paying and poor the rest of their lives instead of getting foreclosed and getting it over with.
ever mind it will be better in 2009
It won't be a pretty year but some think that the seeds of both an economic and market recovery will be planted sometime in 2009.
Why '09 may be better than '08 - Dec. 23, 2008
This might indicate that inventory levels are close to the peak for this cycle (inventory has peaked for 2008), however there is probably a substantial shadow inventory homeowners wanting to sell, but waiting for a better market - so existing home inventory levels will probably stay elevated for some time.
While there is a temporary lull in inventory, IMHO as the banks move to forclose on new resets from Alt A and others currently in limbo, I believe inventory will increase substantially in 09.
During the S&L mess my sister and husband lived in a house they were renting free for 18 months. The house went into FC, the owner ghosted and nobody with the S&L ever inquired about rent. A good deal when you can get it......
"Stock up on PMs and commodities at low prices, while you can."
--rich
Other than PMs, which commodities do you have in mind?
On PMs, I don't see much point in buying platinum or palladium here, as they would need industrial demand to go up much.
I like gold and silver, but the storage issue is a problem for me. So I own miners and cross my fingers.
The "alt-A train" is coming to a station near you.....
If you think you are making sacrifices and in a recession now.....
Boy do you have some preparation to be doing.
You can lower rates to zero and it still makes no difference....I'm sure SOME of you know why....but judging by the comments today....there are several of you who are going to be, how we say.....unprepared.
Ciao
MS
The Mortgage Reset Graph from Credit Suisse ...
Econbrowser: Distressing Picture of the Day
bearly:"There's a lot more pain out there than just the optionARM calamity. Many IntOnlys have a balloon at 5 & 7 yrs. Those principal amounts won't look too attractive at refi time either."
There's not a balloon per se on a lot of these interest-only mortgages, but the mortgage does start amortizing on a 23 year or 25 year payback schedule, so your prinicpal payment is higher each month than it would have been on a 30 year payback schedule.
Some nice images :-
http://www.safehaven.com/images/maund/12159_h.jpg
http://www.safehaven.com/images/maund/12159_i.jpg
Headlines here in NH are that after 20" of snow this weekend, and recent days-long power outages, there are hour+ lines to get INTO the mall parking lots.
I don't know what you west coasters are complaining about.
And do not forget - even to the extent that the "owners" of homes with option arms CAN pay when the mortgage recasts to include principal, it's a significant hit to spending power (and to CA in particular) when that money has to be diverted to the mortgage payment.
® writes:
I think the IO issue is bigger than the option-arm issue in California. Streamline refis will help but by help I mean they will ensure that it will keep the suckers paying and poor the rest of their lives instead of getting foreclosed and getting it over with.
How are they going to refi these houses if the house is worth less than the mortgage balance?
What is the future value of a dollar? Anyone here know?
2009 is just a lull before the next mortgage foreclosure debacle ... Many will get pulled in.
Then there is the jobs picture ...
Econbrowser: Distressing Picture of the Day
What is the future value of a dollar? Anyone here know?
Going out on a limb, I'll say one dollar.
Question - the Madoff deal broke wide open in late November/early December. Last night we get a 30 minute presentation on ponzi scams and bleeding heart interviews with the latest victims.
The bankster Ponzi story has been unfolding for well over a year and to date I must have missed the MSM in depth analysis of the scam and where it went wrong. Should I be worried?
Not even 12 and there goes the DOW ...
PPT where are you ?
"What is the future value of a dollar? Anyone here know?"
--jealous bitch
Well, some say that that the value of the dollar will fall to its intrinsic value, which is zero.
The critical question is: when?
What is the future value of a dollar? Anyone here know?
~~~~
Are you buying or selling ?
Bruce - that is because for those involved, it did NOT go wrong. It went OHHHH so right. Look at the perpetrators? They are still McLovin life for the most part. Just conjure up in your mind an image of where Angelo Mozillo is now, or Robert Rubin, or Lewis, or Fuld, or any of them. They live like friggin kings. Nothing, I repeat, nothing, will come of this. The money is gone, it was stolen, it aint coming back, they will just steal more through excuses like those that came from the White House yesterday. They made the rules, they played the game because they couldnt lose, they obviously won, and yet, it is STILL not enough.
Bend over, grab ankles. They're not done with you yet.
"We need a form of McCarthyism to make a comeback with the focus on investigating finance and regulators."
Yes, we need regulators to regulate the regulators!
MarketWatch - Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News
MarketWatch
Treasury sells $22 billion in bills with no yield
By Deborah Levine
Last update: 12:18 p.m. EST Dec. 23, 2008
"Bidders offered more than 4.41 times the amount of debt being sold. It's the third auction of four-week bills in December at which investors have asked for no yield, but just to get their principal"
Underline: just to get their principal...speaks volumes
The Human Fund-Money For People
Bruce writes:
The bankster Ponzi story has been unfolding for well over a year and to date I must have missed the MSM in depth analysis of the scam and where it went wrong. Should I be worried?
No, 'cause there's no crisis and if there was, we'd be on track for a solution next quarter. Erin Burnett can tell you all about it.
WW lll continues, with OPEC cutting supplies to drive up oil prices which will influence the dollar, and no, a dollar is not worth a value in future terms...
In turn, the combination of higher cost of money and higher input cost inflation could force oil back up to $100/bbl. As we expect gold to maintain its long-run relationship with other commodities, gold prices could well push higher to $1200/oz.
Should the financial stress turn out to be more severe in other countries, the dollar could fail to depreciate in the medium term and in-turn limit the upside on gold. The situation therefore reflects a shortage of USD as market participants reduce risk and push money into the safety of US Treasury bonds.
SRS at 56 has got to be the deal of the century.
query:"How are they going to refi these houses if the house is worth less than the mortgage balance?"
Streamline refis. They don't look at the property value as long as it is a Rate & Term refinance.
FHA does them now. Fannie/Freddie are thinking about doing them. If you think about it, it makes a lot of sense since those entities are on the hook for the balance anyways if they can make the borrower stronger fiscally it is better for there chances to get repaid.
No, 'cause there's no crisis and if there was, we'd be on track for a solution next quarter. Erin Burnett can tell you all about it.
The_Littlest_Mandarin
~~~~
Michelle Caboosa Cabeza can tell you too ...
mmckinl writes:
The Mortgage Reset Graph from Credit Suisse ...
Econbrowser
archi...sing_pic_1.html
mmckinl | 12.23.08 - 2:46 pm | #
Here's what is scary about the Credit Suisse reset chart:
WE HAVE AT LEAST 3 MORE YEARS, 2009, 2010, AND 2011 BEFORE THE TREND IS DOWN.
Based on the last 16 months, there is no way in HE11 that this economy can take 3 more years of blows like the last 16 months.
Heck, if 2009 is exactly like '08, we are in for a depression like the 1870's panic.
Now, add 2010 and 2011 and all the bailouts in the world are not going to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
People this is serious.
Neil is right. Debt fatigue has set in. Now, combine that with Peak Debt/Credit and a deflationary death spiral and we have one major crap storm on the way.
I would like to say thanks to RR and all the leaders since him who have allowed this credit universe to expand. I don't place the blame entirely on any party, just that it started about 26 years ago.
SRS at 56 has got to be the deal of the century.
JS | 12.23.08 - 2:58 pm | #
There's never been a better time to buy!
How are they going to refi these houses if the house is worth less than the mortgage balance?
A streamline refi replaces an underwater mortgage loan with a new...underwater mortgage loan. There's no appraisal.
"Investers ask for no yield."
Dumbass Dope might ask "Who or Whom is parking money here?"
OCDan:
no fears, the govt. has learned vualable lessons over the past 12 months and will handle the next crop of problems flawlessly, thereby negating any bad impacts to the economy. rest assured.
OCDan writes:
mmckinl writes:
The Mortgage Reset Graph from Credit Suisse ...
Econbrowser archi...sing_pic_1.html
mmckinl | 12.23.08 - 2:46 pm | #
Here's what is scary about the Credit Suisse reset chart:
WE HAVE AT LEAST 3 MORE YEARS, 2009, 2010, AND 2011 BEFORE THE TREND IS DOWN.
Based on the last 16 months, there is no way in HE11 that this economy can take 3 more years of blows like the last 16 months.
Heck, if 2009 is exactly like '08, we are in for a depression like the 1870's panic.
Now, add 2010 and 2011 and all the bailouts in the world are not going to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
People this is serious.
~~~~
Yep ,,, very serious ...
JS --
SRS at 56 has got to be the deal of the century.
All of the ultrashorts just went ex-div (and ex-capital-distrubution) for the year, so be careful. In particular for SRS you need to add $4.50 to get a price comparable to yesterday's.
From the Huffington article:
There are also those bright spots, the exceptions. One owner expects to double sales next year; they sell nutritional cleansing products.
Wow! So the unemployed are really going to care if their colon is clean or not?
Or maybe the business owner expects people won't be able to afford the $1000.00 spa day & turn to more affordable methods of 'pampering' themselves.
I'll admit it.
I sat and watched this happen, in disbelief at the systemic failure.
What little is in my 401k, is still conservative. Do I take the 34% drop in value, move to MM, or accept that I"m fooked and let that part ride, and new money goes to the mattress.
I don't see this over until much shenanigans, pain, and shouting.
the man from nantucket writes:
OCDan:
no fears, the govt. has learned vualable lessons over the past 12 months and will handle the next crop of problems flawlessly, thereby negating any bad impacts to the economy. rest assured.
the man from nantucket | 12.23.08 - 3:02 pm | #
Not to be over the top, but if the goobs continue to handle things the way they have the last 12 months, we may have a revolution in this country by the end of '09.
People are only going to take so much lying, stealin, cheatin, before the blood runs.
I realize we all talk about the sheeple, but if the middle class can't feed its children, look out!
Expired
Another Buffett company is leaching off the taxpayer again.
I've lost all respect for Buffett. Capitalist my @ss. The biggest inflation gatherer of them all.
emo is correct....look at QID...$9.50 in divvies payable Dec. 26th.
I reloaded some of it.....
Ciao
MS
......the safety of US Treasury bonds.
Idiots pushing money into an oxymoron.
Feinberg Despised in Wisconsin Where Cerberus Lives Up to Name
Feinberg Despised in Wisconsin Where Cerberus Lives Up to Name - Bloomberg.com
The unease being felt in government and the world of high finance/banking should be growing. Anger is replacing fear.
There are also those bright spots, the exceptions. One owner expects to double sales next year; they sell nutritional cleansing products.
this is real, folks | 12.23.08 - 3:03 pm | #
How very considerate of people for them to clean their colons so the bankers will not get crap on their dicks when they screw the people.
We need a Colon Cleansing Czar !
Credit Suisse reset chart
Don't worry, Mike Shedlock says the ARMs Reset Problem Vanished Into Thin Air
.
When Santa comes this year ...
Will he leave a pile to clean up and a bill for delivery ?
Will 8400 hold on the DOW ... ?
This little elf wants to know ...
Not anymore thanks to the miracles of CR Companion.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 2:33 pm | #
FUNNY!
I have met some people in my life who are wildly enthusiastic about Colon Cleansing. Frequently, they are spa types, and/or from California. I'm just saying.
They boast about how much energy they have, and talk about stool volume, and bloating, and malabsorption and such. Their idea of a successful weekend is largely one spent on the can, emptying out.
I usually excuse myself from the conversation, and explain that I have to go check on my dog, because he's on fire.
Don't worry, Mike Shedlock says the ARMs Reset Problem Vanished Into Thin Air.
Speed |
~~~~
Until the falling dollar pops the treasury bubble ...
check on my dog, because he's on fire
makes me laugh
Sports Guy = +1
I needed a laugh today!
I suggest you study this period for future value clues:
File:Oil Prices 1861 2007.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
W/ Love
G Soros/Kona
"I realize we all talk about the sheeple, but if the middle class can't feed its children, look out!"
....So why aren't there more people who take an active role in their future and at least learn how to feed and clean themselves?
The reactionary "do-nothingism" astounds me!
...excuse me while I collect my hens' eggs....
More on WW lll
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oil_price_chronology-june2007.gif
It would be interesting to see those oil charts with inflation adjustments. There has been monstrous inflation since the 1970s.
" sm_landlord writes:
It would be interesting to see those oil charts with inflation adjustments. There has been monstrous inflation since the 1970s.
sm_landlord | Homepage | 12.23.08 - 3:34 pm | # "
Isn't that what the yellow line represents?
this is real, folks writes:
Sports Guy = +1
I needed a laugh today!
this is real, folks | 12.23.08 - 3:27 pm
I agree, too funny!
They boast about how much energy they have, and talk about stool volume, and bloating, and malabsorption and such. Their idea of a successful weekend is largely one spent on the can, emptying out.
----------------------------------------------
Kind of ironic, as they are more full of shit after discovering colon cleansing than they were before !!!
WW lll is a financial war and apparently, no one gets it yet...
shedlock also subscribes to the theory that the FED doesn't print money via the repo. process.
But he's totally wrong.....his "facts" is that it doesn't show up on the remaining M1& M2 money supply report so it doesn't exist......
Hole meet ass...
Ciao
MS
"Isn't that what the yellow line represents?"
--xxxxx
Oh, yes it does on the first one. My bad. OTOH, the lines converge awfully fast in the last few years, as if there were no inflation from 2003 onwards.
The second that jb posted does not seem to have this, although a comment at the bottom of the claims that clicking on the chart will show it.
Now with the Shadowstats inflation numbers, that would be even more interesting.
Not to re-open the in/de-flation debate...
My guess is that we're going to wake up before long and notice substantial oil supply destruction (or at least postponement). I've read that a lot of the expensive supply is shutting down and new drilling has collapsed.
sm_landlord,
yep.
Carl Reichart from Wachovia notes that for sale inventory (new homes) fell in November more than sales for the first time in history. Regionally, the West reported 7,000 actual sales but an 11,000 unit fall in inventory. The Midwest: 4,000 sales, and 5,000 decline in inventory. The Northeast: 3,000 sales and 4,000 unit decline in inventory. Nationally, 14,000 previously completed homes were sold but unsold inventory fell by 21,000 units. Dept. of Commerce comments that some were converted to rentals, some were foreclosed and temporarily removed from the for sale market. Possibly other factors.
Sounds like another source of shadow inventory.
Ugly.
Theres a pent-up anger wherever I travel, said Leo Gerard, president of the Pittsburgh-based United Steelworkers, which represents 1.2 million members, including the Kimberly mill workers. People feel very much like theyre being screwed. I really think youll see tens of thousands of people if not hundreds of thousands taking to the streets and protesting across the country.
sm_landlord writes:
"I like gold and silver, but the storage issue is a problem for me. So I own miners and cross my fingers."
sm: have you looked at GLD? seems easy to trade, subject to the lingering debate about vaue of paper pms.
Braved Fry's North County, SD, this afternoon. Non event. Only moderate traffic, shelves noticeably less full. But no deals on year end tax software I use, which for Frys' amazing not to get blinded by all the rebate gimmicks. Shopkeepers in town grumbling, but no closures - yet, anyway.
I believe you are wrong on you statement on seasonal adjustment. Look at past data for Novembers with different trading days/holidays, the NAR method looks about right.