Philly Fed November State Coincident Indicators
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 12/23/2008 - 11:48am (209 comments)
in
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What a coinkidink!
what? a recession? when?
I guess I should move to Wyoming.
Just turn that second graph upside down.
See, everything, AOKAY!!!!!!!!!!!
And California is only pink, not red. Thank you Google and Apple!
Well I live in Texas and I can tell you biz ain't even near booming.
What took them so long to figure this out?
How do these clowns justify their pay, let alone their jobs?
I am disgusted.
I have noticed that the pain in LA seemed to be worse this spring. Traffic had really dropped off. Now, there seems to be more of it. Usually, there is a big dropoff between Thanksgiving and New Year. Perhaps the people who usually fly out of town, go skiing, etc., are staying home because it's cheaper.
I give you now the top headlines of 2009 (Check my site for the bonus other 10)
2009 Headlines of the year!
Top 10 Headlines in 2009
1) China-USA trade war
2) Civil unrest in detriot
3) Drug War violense spreads to US from Mexico
4) Obama's Massive Tax increases.
5) cali and NY decalre Bankruptcty
6) The fall of muniplicials tied to SCDO
7) The Great Pension Crises
8) Why Gold did not play out as expected
9) Oil at $100 Again
10) FDIC requires Bailout money
OCDan --
What took them so long to figure this out?
Well, these are "coincident" indicators. Kind of like how getting wet is a coincident indicator for rain.
Why anybody would pay a weatherman for something like that is beyond me, but there we are.
Go Texas!
No wonder it doesn't seem so bleak day-to-day to me. Over lunch, I saw a line that spanned a couple of hundred feet long waiting to buy Honey Baked Ham for the holiday. No depression, here. But, in-line with what skent said, things have slowed down some.
Oil at $100..Nada.
May be at $25
almost time for short covering, program buying
move along, nothing to see
Well we just had a major DFW homebuilder shut its doors. Other builders are saying the banks will not give them financing to build homes and if they do they are requiring significant down payments from the builder to finance the home. And this is in North Texas where it is different here.
Better red than dead? hehehe
We don't grow! We don't shrink! We do care what you think!
Yea, Tennessee, Yea!
All that mid yellow will be red in upcoming reports as the commodity price bust spanks farmers, oil bubble burst kills exploration and investment and gas price bust kills the ethanol industry. Buh by ya'll.
the next update will show certain states as smoking craters
"Robert writes:
I give you now the top headlines of 2009 (Check my site for the bonus other 10)
2009 Headlines of the year!
Top 10 Headlines in 2009
1) China-USA trade war
2) Civil unrest in detriot
3) Drug War violense spreads to US from Mexico
4) Obama's Massive Tax increases.
5) cali and NY decalre Bankruptcty
6) The fall of muniplicials tied to SCDO
7) The Great Pension Crises
8) Why Gold did not play out as expected
9) Oil at $100 Again
10) FDIC requires Bailout money"
Do you write for The Onion? No, they have spellcheck. Ignoring the many spelling errors, states can't declare bankruptcy. I work with both public and private sector pension plans frequently and almost none of them have short term cashflow problems. Any problems have to do with employer contributions. There will be no Obama tax increases in 2009, though there may be tax cuts. Later on, the Bush tax cuts will expire.
Oil will drop to $22/barrel in 2009. Probably average $22-28 for the year.
I am scratching my head over how municipalities will fall victims to synthetic collateralized debt obligations. Perhaps you mean some other SCDO?
There might be civil unrest in Detroit, the FDIC will need assistance (though it might last through 2009 without any), and it wouldn't be surprising to see Mexico's drug war violence make it into the US. Pretty much the rest of the list ranges from unlikely to you just don't understand what you're talking about.
you forgot the good news...
11) Christ returns to NBA
12)treasury bails out fed
13)fed bails out treasury
14) Skipper bails out Gilliga
I guess I should move to Wyoming.
CR calls it "Wymong," which also works for me.
I believe our old friend CSC would choose Wyoming as his favorite state based on color
Only two states with any significance (TX and VA) in the light green. Problem with the defusion index is it treats CA and NY the same as WY and ND. Weighted by pop of state GDP this would be real ugly.
MN is Burn-victim red.
Well, our "rainy day," fund will help us out. Oh wait...,
Dear CR:
You state:
^^^^^^^
Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since late last year based on this indicator.
^^^^^^^
How dare you !!
Cordially,
Kilgore Trout
15) Dogs and Cats Cohabitating
Give Detroit back to Canada.
Some investor guy,
Robert is late like nber on recession re: cartel violence spreading here...
google cartel violence in america, phoenix etc..they have already started...
are the dogs and cats domestic partners?
CR are you sure you didnt mix up the political map? This looks more like Red vs Blue (but backwards and with a little green)
Well we just had a major DFW homebuilder shut its doors.
skent | 12.23.08 - 3:16 pm | #
Was that Shaddock/Sotherby? I can tell you first hand that spec home construction has ground to a halt here.
Looks like it's about time for our 3:30 test of yesterdays 3:30 low...
the FDIC will need assistance (though it might last through 2009 without any)
some investor guy | 12.23.08 - 3:24 pm | #
They'll just do what they did this year: stop shutting down insolvent banks.
If you build a home on spec, they still won't come.
kind of a sloppy stick save so far
Xmas party for ppt?
There will be no Obama tax increases in 2009, though there may be tax cuts.
You have a wonderful sense of humor!
Later on, the Bush tax cuts will expire.
And that's called a tax increase. If tax rates go up, for whatever reason, that's an increase. An increase.
JimPortlandOR(Unrated) writes:
\tIf you build a home on spec, they still won't come.
\t JimPortlandOR | \t \t \t \t12.23.08 - 3:32 pm | #
JimPortlandOR | 12.23.08 - 3:32 pm | #
There are a couple of $2 million-plus spec homes within a half-mile of where I'm sitting, just finished in the last couple of months. On one, they're already not bothering to keep up the landscaping.
I saw a line that spanned a couple of hundred feet long waiting to buy Honey Baked Ham for the holiday. No depression, here
That sounds like a soup line to me.
Affirmative on Sotherby. Spec building is pretty much zero with most of the builders I know. In the past I believe they were financing 100% of the costs with the bank. I believe now banks are requiring a minimum of 25% down for the most part.
CR,
It's falling natural gas prices that will doom these states.
We need a Honey Baked Ham Czar !
16) Mass hysteria
Whoo Hooo! Still green for a couple of months. Layoffs just starting here. (louisiana)
bonus!
11) Failed Bank list tops 100
12) Ford the last car maker left.
13) Why did the treasury bubble collapase.
14) Is this a replay of 1933
15) AIG goes out of business
16) CRE Markets worse shape ever.
17) Loses from the credit crises top $2 Trillion
18) Euro/Dollar now at 1:1
19) Major Crisies forces change in China
20) Putin is discredited and steps dow
So again we were lied to about when this 'recession' started. I'm really starting to think this whole RE/CRE bubble/credit bust was a Big Ponzi along with the derivatives Ponzi. These are trillion dollar ponzi schemes.
You're the only 10 I see.
21.) Jen Aniston calls Angelina Jolie "really uncool."
" ille_vir writes:
I guess I should move to Wyoming.
ille_vir | 12.23.08 - 3:07 pm | # "
Don't go hunting with Dick Cheney-
"Xmas party for ppt?"
The buy button is currently being minded by one of the male interns whose attention is 97.4% directed to flirting with the hot female intern.
How is CA not glowing neon radioactive red?
So again we were lied to about when this 'recession' started. I'm really starting to think this whole RE/CRE bubble/credit bust was a Big Ponzi along with the derivatives Ponzi. These are trillion dollar ponzi schemes.
~~~~
Prove it ...
Any one seen this?
Ariz. police say they are prepared as War College warns military must prep for unrest; IMF warns of economic riots
Ariz. police say they are prepared as War College warns military must prep for unrest; IMF warns of economic riots - Phoenix Business Journal:
How is CA not glowing neon radioactive red?
our cannabis economy will save us
irreverent writes:
the next update will show certain states as smoking craters
irreverent | 12.23.08 - 3:24 pm |
Man, I just spit banana on that one!
27) Jas Jain (Bond Prince) is temporarly crowned national hero durring TARP spending spree....
Allow me to pre-spin today's close:
If we're up: it's the Santa Rally we've all been looking for. Everyone back in the pool!!!
If we're down: light volume, everyone's already left town, nothing to see here......
Geoff writes:
14) Skipper bails out Gilligan
Geoff | 12.23.08 - 3:27 pm
Now I do have to wash off the keyboard...
Denninger went over the edge today -
WARNING TO BANKING EXECUTIVES: If you do not return the bonuses, stock options and country club memberships bought with taxpayer bailout money, YOUR NAME AND ADDRESS will be made public in a manner designed to "incite" a reaction by the public. (Special emphasis on the word "incite!)
Not his words, but he reposted it from a nutter site.
*not Kosher.
desi dude writes:
Any one seen this?
Ariz. police say they are prepared as War College warns military must prep for unrest
Ah, "heroes" preparing to keep the yopkme around their fellow citizen's necks.
I wonder if anyone has told the boys in blue that the generous pensions by which they rob the taxpayer will be discontinued and their salaries slashed just when it's time to enforce the police state.
Oh well. They'll all retards who'll blame negroes getting loans through ACORN and call for "1800s justice" while they labor diligently against their own best interests. Gotta fight them commies in the Bonus Army, LOL.
I think the War phase we are entering as we suffer from the RE Ponzi Bust is a war against humanity. After all we supposedly learned from the 'mistakes' of history, here we go again down the drain.
Very odd these cycles are supposedly not preventable or predictable.
What's happening is almost unbelievable if you look at this from the 'consensus' paradigm of reality or the 'narrative' we live by and are being taught even right now as 'we' Crash globally.
The narrative is this latest Crash was not planned. Who benefits from this 'common knowledge' MSM/govt. narrative?
"incite" a reaction
immediately, under the patriot act, all purchases of rope, tar and feathers will be subject to a background check and a thirty day waiting period
irreverent writes:
immediately, under the patriot act, all purchases of rope, tar and feathers will be subject to a background check and a thirty day waiting period
It's true. Everyone who speaks out against bankers will be given a fiver. Then Tony Snow's rotting corpse will explain how they were a terrorist and it was good for America.
I think Texas is setting up for the Hooocooodanode moment.
UR NAME AND ADDRESS will be made public in a manner designed to "incite" a reaction by the public. (Special emphasis on the word "incite!)
Not his words, but he reposted it from a nutter site.
~~~~
Mr Denninger is very reckless.
Fed is christmas shopping again:
American Express Co., the credit- card company that's converting into a bank, plans to sell $3.39 billion in securities to the U.S. Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Sounds like we're getting coal in our stockings....
10 PRINT "WHAT COLOR IS YOUR STATE?"
20 INPUT X
30 REM
40 REM
50 IF X = "RED THEN GOTO 90
60 REM
70 PRINT "JUST WAIT THREE MORE MONTHS"
80 END
90 PRINT "LINE UP FOR HONEY BAKED HAM"
100 GOTO 90
More christmas shopping with tax dollars:
Freddie Mac's portfolio of mortgage assets grew at a 66 percent annualized rate last month, its fastest pace ever, as regulators pushed the government-run company to aid the U.S. housing market.
Yes, and even while Freddie's portfolio exploded, home sales plummeted. You do the math.
Who's buying TBT (short 10 yr treasury) for xmas?
Looks like arrangesments to force Congress to disgorge the rest of the TARP cash due to a forced liquidity crisis in the program are well underway.
"WARNING TO BANKING EXECUTIVES: If you do not return the bonuses, stock options and country club memberships bought with taxpayer bailout money, YOUR NAME AND ADDRESS will be made public in a manner designed to "incite" a reaction by the public. (Special emphasis on the word "incite!)
Not his words, but he reposted it from a nutter site.
Speed | 12.23.08 - 3:44 pm | # "
WOW! Hal Turner (the actual author) ought to be a bit more careful. If someone actually starts posting these names and address, it could be called conspiracy, and if there is martial law, some of the rights to which become accustomed to might not be there to protect him. All that's needed is a discussion and an overt act for this to be a conspiracy.
Yes, and even while Freddie's portfolio exploded, home sales plummeted. You do the math.
~~~~
Freddie was buying all our worthless mortgages. Merry Christmas tax paying chump ...
"Who's buying TBT (short 10 yr treasury) for xmas?"
--Anonymous
Not me. This situation with T's could go on for quite a while. I have no idea how to time it, but just sitting in TBT and waiting feels dangerous.
Yup. But they cant stick save the junk in the bubble markets. That's craterville.
People have had this 'robbery' rubbed in their faces so it's as if the 'incitement' is not just coming from Denninger.
The worst thing that could happen will be civil unrest and a police 'Bolshevik' state installed under Obama.
People need to stay cool and form a third political party like the Constitution Party or something like that.
The incitement to riot was caused by the actions of crooked bankers and their servants. Don't shoot another rabble rouser messenger like Denninger.
All these blogs have been reporting losses for a long time now and a reaction is coming plus the planned military 'counter-reaction'
It will be the massive public losses to the banking/RE/derivatives Grande Ponzi that cause public anger and panic!
Stay cool. Don't let them have the whole enchilada by a complete takeover by the _____________ or whoever caused or created this mess.
Geoff,
Interesting point. F&F explode, sales are at basically all time lows (pop adjusted), and almost half of those sales were REO.
Sounds like F&F could have been responsible for every single loan made
a rather viagraless session today?
Just noticed SDS (-2x S&P 500) is off nearly 10% with the underlying index off about 1%. Anyone know what's up??
xxxxx writes:
if there is martial law, some of the rights to which become accustomed to might not be there to protect him. All that's needed is a discussion and an overt act for this to be a conspiracy.
Broad hint: If there's martial law, it won't matter, because it'll be declared when there's no money.
If there was any money around before the martial law declaration, there won't be afterwards.
it was already mentioned earlier in a different thread that the short etfs paid out divis today, etc. So when they opened this morning, many were down 20%.
Why is all of the Bush country doing so well?
It looks like his policies purposely just hurt the blue states.
"15) AIG goes out of business"
From your keboard to Gods Monitor...
Anoddamoose --
Just noticed SDS (-2x S&P 500) is off nearly 10% with the underlying index off about 1%. Anyone know what's up??
Yes.
See when it's a 'conspiracy' against the government...well that's different and must be dealt with...but if it's a 'conspiracy' within the government or central banking...well that kind of organization or planning doesn't exist! Interesting.
Thanks Geoff
and thx Nemo.
Anoddamoose | 12.23.08 - 4:02 pm | #
ex-divvy, big payout
banksters clearing house LLC writes:
UR NAME AND ADDRESS will be made public in a manner designed to "incite" a reaction by the public. (Special emphasis on the word "incite!)
Not his words, but he reposted it from a nutter site.
~~~~
Mr Denninger is very reckless.
banksters clearing house LLC | 12.23.08 - 3:54 pm | #
Just name and address? Why not home/cell/office phone, e-mail address, and SS #, school children attend, along with up to date pics of banker and his family. Now that would be reckless
DOWN GOES HONEY BAKED HAM CZAR !!
[Just noticed SDS (-2x S&P 500) is off nearly 10% with the underlying index off about 1%. Anyone know what's up??
Anoddamoose ]
QID is even worse & TWM following along. Something is screwed up.
Not me. This situation with T's could go on for quite a while. I have no idea how to time it, but just sitting in TBT and waiting feels dangerous.
sm_landlord
I hate to say yields can't go lower but, yields can't go much lower. At the same time, I don't see where big money is going to go other than Fed notes. Equities, Munis, corp. bonds, I don't think so. But the only V shaped recovery I see is in T yields.
Ugly new all around.
I will have no problem recruiting for my 'Overthrow the Fed' brigade.
My banner: "Bernanke, Paulson, and Geithner, if you give us inflation, we will give you Kristalnacht."
I am not anti-Semitic. Murray Rothbard's writings are near Gospel to me.
The Fed and Treasury's action will give us terrible inflation down the road. Such will threaten the Republic.
But, Bernanke, Paulson, and Geithner seem to have no fear of political retributions
We'll see what they think about the next level up of retribution.
QID is even worse & TWM following along. Something is screwed up.
bearly
Earlier posts said this was divy pay out, nothing more. But I own some and no divys have been added to my acct. No sabe
It's a great time to buy or sell a honey baked ham !
Well, clearly, Denninger has been slowly losing it (or loosing it, as some would prefer. hehe) I mean, you can always tell when his diatribes veer into the world of all bold and ALL CAPITAL letters. I once told him to do a reset, and he actually did, but I kind of feel bad for him. He has some valid points, but his style is a bit over the top. I can see how that might happen given what must be his level of disbelief that all his words seem to fall upon deaf ears. No matter what parts he gets right, the world just continues to laugh in his face and goes on stealin all the taxpayer money. He must be exasperated beyond belief at this point. Poor guy. I wish CSC were around to send him a carepackage. I hate to read one day that his heart or head exploded, but I fear that is where he is headed.
"No sabe"
--Anonymous
Is it payout, or just going ex-divi?
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) writes:
But, Bernanke, Paulson, and Geithner seem to have no fear of political retributions
Why should they?
The state is clearly operated by them, for their interests, as their private partnership!
Just name and address? Why not home/cell/office phone, e-mail address, and SS #, school children attend, along with up to date pics of banker and his family. Now that would be reckless
Dirk van Dijk
~~~~~
Your post has been noted Mr van Dijk ... a thorough review of your financials is called for under the Patriot Act ...
XXXX,
Names and addresses are normally publically available information, mearly posting them would not be proof of a conspiracy, if that were true, every phone company would be guilty.
Is it payout, or just going ex-divi?
sm_landlord
Must be ex-divi. Note to self: read the f@cking prospectus before buying
sm_landlord (and Anonymous) --
Is it payout, or just going ex-divi?
Just ex-dividend. Payout will come around Dec 30.
I agree that the Treasury bubble has not ... quite yet ... run its course. Thoughts on the next bubble when it does? Equities? Gold? Other commodities? Foreign currencies?
Dirk van Dijk writes:
Names and addresses are normally publically available information, mearly posting them would not be proof of a conspiracy, if that were true, every phone company would be guilty.
You "cyber-bully". You are behind the times, Dirk. There is a whole manufactured crisis in place just to cut you off. Like someone had a plan, huh?
ext bubble: yen denominated Treasuries
lol...read the prospectus. Yes, a fine idea, but you are ok. Just wait til the money shows up in your account in a couple of days. It will basically compensate you for what appears to be the molly whopper of a hit you took today. But overall, I think today you came out in great shape actually, because those funds are mostly up a good bit from where they opened, plus you get to keep the payout! enjoy. Maybe you can save Christmas Hanukkah AND Kwanza for the USofA.
irreverent: lol, yes, i fear that may be true. End of the T bubble is not going to bring uniformly good things
Anoddamoose --
I agree that the Treasury bubble has not ... quite yet ... run its course. Thoughts on the next bubble when it does? Equities? Gold? Other commodities? Foreign currencies?
Infrastructure and alternative energy.
I think gold will hit $2000+ eventually, but it may go there by way of $500.
Anoddamoose writes:
I agree that the Treasury bubble has not ... quite yet ... run its course. Thoughts on the next bubble when it does?
Coffins?
I mean seriously, dude, when the devil comes for his due on the Treasuries game, that's a market endstate. Something will come out the other side, but it won't look remotely like the modern financial system.
OT :
Mark Texeira to the Yankees 8 yr, 180 Million.
and Manny still unsigned.
I think this next year will be a watershed year for professional sports in general, and baseball in particular. What a jarring headline for JSP to read.
Out of touch.
My Top 10 for 2009
1) Coup in China; China takes run at Taiwan
2) Obama Approval Ratings at 30% by the Fall
3) S&P hits low of 500
4) Gold hits $1500
5) Blackstone Goes Private
6) Goldman Goes Private
7) Housing does not bottom in 2009
8) Some Hedge-Fund/PE/Wall Street Executives do the perp-walk (besides Madoff)
9) Roubini calls the bottom too early
10) CR nails calling the bottom
Maybe you can save Christmas Hanukkah AND Kwanza for the USofA.
Geoff
Thanks Geoff. My jaw dropped and I wanted my mommy at exactly 9:30am
I mean seriously, dude, when the devil comes for his due on the Treasuries game, that's a market endstate. Something will come out the other side, but it won't look remotely like the modern financial system.
~~~~
It's all in the plan ...
"I think gold will hit $2000+ eventually, but it may go there by way of $500."
--Nemo
That would certainly be exciting, but why the stop @500?
The thing is Denninger has decided to not be afraid and hide in the attic. I know everyone is afraid of getting off the accepted script because you are afraid of saying anything not on topic(narrative). Hiding is probably a better survival strategy as this Bust gets 'resolved'.
People are going to finally figure out that just blaming themselves for being a sucker to a RE/derivatives PONZI is just a form of denial.
next bubble: yen denominated Treasuries
The Bubble Within A Bubble!
It's two... two... two treats in one!
Well folks, I'm out of here, might be posting infrequently until 2009. Have to drive to Ohio from Chiago tonite and looks like the roads are gonna be a bitch.
Merry Crisis and a Happy New Fears to all, and to all a good nite. Enjoy your friends and family over the holiday, because you will not enjoy the economy in 09.
banksters clearing house LLC writes:
It's all in the plan ...
I posit this is like the Chinese plan to "rob" the West by allowing capitalization of Chinese industry and then cheating and nationalizing it when they got "enough".
Good idea, but packing Godzilla in a small cellophane envelope may be more challenging than anticipated.
2) Obama Approval Ratings at 30% by the Fall
~~~
That's why everyone will be beholden to us ... the government will be discredited.
Dirk van Dijk writes:
Well folks, I'm out of here, might be posting infrequently until 2009.
Happy holidays to our favorite analyst! Hang in there -- although Zacks would be foolish to forgo your services.
To all Holiday travellers going by car. Have a safe trip and remember what someone on Bloomie said this morning. Statea, counties and cities are hurting for cash, don't speed, run lights, etc. They will be out in force.
Good idea, but packing Godzilla in a small cellophane envelope may be more challenging than anticipated.
~~~~
Godzilla is our pet ... he gets angry when we don't feed him tax payer money ... so we just turn him loose ...
Don't jump out of windows these days; just take sleeping pills and slit their wrists:
Thierry de la Villehuchet: Madoff Investor Dies After $1.4 Billion Lost
BASIC PROGRAM ASKS was funny the first time, and I chuckled a bit more the second time...
The question is, can s/he do it again? I vote for a "HOOCOODANODE?!?!?!" in there somewhere on the next one.
chucklem00se.
I posted this earlier this morning, but I guess it was too early for some on West Coast.
Ex-div date was today. Payment date is not until 12/30.
ProShares ETFs - ETFs with Short or Leveraged Exposure to Market and Sector Indexes
and click on "Proshares ETFs Declare Distributions"
Dirk,
Safe travels and Merry Xmas...
Guest-I agree..He is at least making his case public...We are all going to have to join in at some point...I don't think he is doing something like exposing a cia analyst....
And for the first time, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, and Nissan have each asked to lease space from the port for these orphan vehicles.
hey...call me! I've got cheap space in NM
Obama at 30% - He could be a hero if he prosecutes the criminals on the Hal Turner/Denninger list.
Denninger has a point. If the govt won't prosecute its own, and unemployment hits socially unstable levels, the mob may call for its pound of flesh.
"The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth."
-- Alan Blinder, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, on PBS's Nightly Business Report in 1994"
It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State. (Joseph Goebbels)
I think I am violating some law here.
"the mob may call for its pound of flesh"
the night of the long pig?
irreverent writes:
the night of the long pig?
Eww, who'd want to eat bankers or politicans! I'd rather eat human flesh first!
Obama at 30% - He could be a hero if he prosecutes the criminals on the Hal Turner/Denninger list.
~~~~
Obama is our man in the White House ... Around here his nick name is Barack o'Bilderberg ...
We are glad you think there is still justice. Our propaganda budget was well worth the money spent.
Here it is on the ultras. They are paying a crapload out in Cap Gains & a little in divies so holders get paid. Factor in the following to prices...
Expired
For those of you who are convinced commodities are in a continuing slide, how do you explain this?
DBA (mixed food ETF) bottomed at $21.52 on December 5.
Today, it closed at $24.61.
14+% gain in less than weeks.
Food is telling you about dollar weakness...that will benefit all commodities, straight through 2009.
If oil stays at $22-26 through 2009, I'll drink a barrel.
By this time next year, some oil exporters will not accept any amount of dollars. They'll insist on something real.
" Dirk van Dijk writes:
XXXX,
Names and addresses are normally publically available information, mearly posting them would not be proof of a conspiracy, if that were true, every phone company would be guilty.
Dirk van Dijk | 12.23.08 - 4:09 pm | # "
What was described was posting with the intent to incite. And BTW, it's xxxxx
[Food is telling you about dollar weakness]
From what I read winter wheat got hit with hard freeze without snow cover so that also has an effect.
Sandystructures AutoGroup writes:
And for the first time, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, and Nissan have each asked to lease space from the port for these orphan vehicles.
hey...call me! I've got cheap space in NM
Sandystructures AutoGroup | 12.23.08 - 4:26 pm | #
They're not making any more land in New Mexico, you know.
They could rework the message:
Here's a list of names, addresses of the folks who stole money from you. Please feel free to express how you feel toward them in a lawful and respectful manner.
could not agree more with Rich...
some people can't see things for what they are. Those that think that food "issues" are not coming should look at Europe..it's been an "issue" for several years....not in the MSM however you need to do a little more research then say your avg. Madoff investor chose to do.
Ciao
MS
Ben B.'s new plan is to drop Mercedes Benz and Toyotas from helicopters in order to kickstart the economy
By this time next year, some oil exporters will not accept any amount of dollars. They'll insist on something real
I'll take that bet. They'll take what we offer. In a time of great stress, our economy can survive on internal production of oil.
Their's cannot survive withour imported foodstuff.
and I'll add that I'll drink two barrels along with Rich......
It's fairly easy to see it coming....if you want to.
Ciao
MS
I'd prefer :
Here's a list of names, addresses of the folks who stole money from you. Please feel free to express how you feel toward them in a lawful and just manner.
But that's just me
MS writes:
could not agree more with Rich...
some people can't see things for what they are. Those that think that food "issues" are not coming
Read an article a few days ago about food as commodities and how 8 multi-nationals control all the worlds food
Hiding is probably a better survival strategy as this Bust gets 'resolved'.
People are going to finally figure out that just blaming themselves for being a sucker to a RE/derivatives PONZI is just a form of denial.
the guest | 12.23.08 - 4:16 pm |
The Guest, Alexander Solzhenitsyn wondered how was it possible that Genrikh Yagoda and a handful of NKVD thugs managed to keep huge populations paralyzed with terror. If only a neighborhood had refused to be imprisoned and murdered one-by-one, millions of their fellow citizens would have not lost their lives.
Like rabbits which get paralyzed when they spot a falcon circling above -and thereby become easy prey- there is a moment where active resistance is the only way against arbitrariness and injustice.
Solzhenitsyn, the man who took on single-handedly the Soviet monolith, had a rule who helped him survive the Gulag and the persecutions: "Don't believe them, don't fear them, don't ask anything of them."
I hope Americans, especially those in law enforcement and the military will wake up soon enough, and be loyal to their pledge to the constitution, not to the Patriot Act or to the rest of the unconstitutional legislation approved under blackmail since 2001.
Anon-
The fix was in when we decided to use a foodstuff as an "alternative" fuel to supplant oil.
Oil Equations-
If you have two clients, one pays in dollar's and one in gold.......It doesn't take much thought to see who is going to get product and who is not.
They will take what they want....that's what happens when you control a commodity that the world is built and runs on.
Key point that.
Ciao
MS
By this time next year, some oil exporters will not accept any amount of dollars. They'll insist on something real.
~~~~
Are three carrier battle groups enough or will we need four ?
Basically as this 'global economi/political systemic process' has evolved with new surveillance and weapons, the Poeple are powerless and are just subjects to be dictated to. There is no choice but to comply with whatever happens.
This is like being in a bad horror movie just standing and watching our own demise that we may end up supporting by panic.
This isn't a democracy or a free market capitalist system although we have had a ton of deregulations in banking.
The People are just dumbed down sheep to be sheared. It's starting to sink in.
There's no 'moral hazard' because there's no morality in our bastardized, mutated system just sucker set-ups(ponzis) & losses and 'organized' accumulation and concentration of Capital.
Maybe our system should be called 'Tyranny and Mutation' from the Blue Oyster Cult song of the same name.
dollar policy. gets a lot of tankers unloading the goods.
There is no choice but to comply with whatever happens. This is like being in a bad horror movie just standing and watching our own demise that we may end up supporting by panic.
~~~~
Relax, at some point we will take our foot off your throat ...
OT,
First batch of Taiwan fruits arrives on Chinese mainland
from People's Daily Online.
On the other hand,
Brazil citrus industry threatened by disease and it's only a matter of time before it takes a toll on CA
Pretty much boils down to edible food and clean water.
Commodity busts always overshoot due to the high leverage involved.
Also, the delivery/storage issues cause speculators to get smacked in the face by the reality of taking actual delivery of product. That's always a killer squeeze that causes foolish speculators to sell at a big loss.
Nothing new here.
OT Is this another way of saying we will use market data until we don't like the market data?
Negative Yields and Nominal Constant Maturity Treasury Series Rates (CMTs). Current financial market conditions, in conjunction with extraordinary low levels of interest rates, have resulted in negative yields for some Treasury securities trading in the secondary market. Negative yields for Treasury securities most often reflect highly technical factors in Treasury markets related to the cash and repurchase agreement markets, and are at times unrelated to the time value of money.
As such, Treasury will restrict the use of negative input yields for securities used in deriving interest rates for the Treasury nominal Constant Maturity Treasury series (CMTs). Any CMT input points with negative yields will be reset to zero percent prior to use as inputs in the CMT derivation. This decision is consistent with Treasury not accepting negative yields in Treasury nominal security auctions.
The TARP list has just been updated
here is the PDF,
http://www.treas.gov/initiatives/eesa/docs/CPPTransactionReport122308.pdf
Ghost of FDR,
Yes fear can paralyze you. The thing is govt. 'crackdowns' will create more fear. When freeways get closed down, these day trader bloggers will suddenly say 'WTF'!
Do you ever wonder who is behind the rioting in Greece and Europe? Provocateaurs and rabble rousers will make this worse for everyone including CR bloggers who have fridges full of food(right now).
Don't be afraid but don't break the law and this way expose the Wizard behind the Curtain who may be as nice as the movie character.
But probably the Wizard is malignant.
A source which I won't name because it arouses hostility here, reports that a top economist at the IMF foresees a second Great Depression. It may very well be that the IMF also arouses hostility here, but take it for what you think it's worth.
If you see gold returning to a more normal contango pattern, where owners can get paid a decent premium for storing it and selling forward, I'd agree $500 is a possibility.
But until you start to see that pattern develop, I can't see it.
The futures curve will tell you where gold is going, and the curve has been moving slowly but steadily toward backwardation lately. Likewise, if you saw oil moving toward more a normal backdation pattern, it would tell you oil has bottomed.
[Ben B.'s new plan is to drop Mercedes Benz and Toyotas from helicopters in order to kickstart the economy]
You know I have my doubts about Ben & Hank doing what's best for the country and even worse, that they know what they're doing.
Ben has a pretty grim record with his ability to foresee obvious events -- Subprime contained and dollar weakness only harms those travelling overseas.
The unprecedented moves he has made seem dangerous to me even in the intermediate term. A bond bubble only lasts as long as it lasts. Once confidence gets shaky that bubble can collapse along with the USD as fast and hard as commodities.
They may be cultivation a catastrophe much worse than the slump they are trying to avoid.
Don't be afraid but don't break the law and this way expose the Wizard behind the Curtain who may be as nice as the movie character.
~~~~~
Listen to our dear friend here ... We are your friends ... What's a few trillions among friends. You didn't really want to own a home, send your children to college or retire ...
I'm getting the impression from open sources of increased geopolitical instability.
So vote out the centralized one-party, political, economic, finance, and media apparatus of the malicious narcissistic Wizard with a third party People's movement.
Start new media sources. Live without credit. Vote out the malignant apparatus one by one locally, state wide, and federally. Picket legally.
Resist globalization. It didn't work for us anyway.
They will take what they want....that's what happens when you control a commodity that the world is built and runs on
no big disagreement there.
however, there's only a few major markets willing and able to consume excess production in the order of 2-3mm bpd.
Our special relationship with the swing supplier allows them a very high standard of living, considering they live in a desert.
Who else in the world can consume and provide gold in the quantities necesasary to appease their masses?
Earlier posts said this was divy pay out, nothing more. But I own some and no divys have been added to my acct. No sabe
Anonymous | 12.23.08 - 4:07 pm | #
Look up "ex-dividend date" vs. "payable date"
bearly - I find myself continually going back on forth on whether BB knew subprime wasnt contained, and knew the economy was toast and just could not admit it, or whether he was just completely clueless.
I'd like to believe the former, but what about him makes him so different that he was unlike any of the other folks out there who totally didnt see this coming?
Granted there are the ones who know it, but who cant say it (one of which you might think is a Zandi, who is hitched to Moodys, the criminal organization/ratings racket, but I dont really think so - Ive run across him a few times in my previous work - he is just your typical optimistic there will be growth economist types.) Im not sure who there are. But there are also the Kasriel's, etc, who are not doomsayers who seem to have wised up relatively quickly.
I think as time goes by Im slowly leaning more and more to the incompetence side. Just because the guy studied a lot about historical economics, that doesnt make him all that. A LOT of people go through the Econ PhD programs, and Ive studied with plenty. And some of us realize what a game it is and get out while we are still sane. But the geniuses are rare. And even when their credentials say genius, they can be blindsided by ideology.
You see, 'The Guest', the state and its might exist only in one's head. When people revolt, or even better, stop believing in the effectivity of the state, it simply vanishes, just like the Soviet Union did, despite its submarine fleet, and nuclear warheads.
Propaganda and state terror -and this is the only terror that exists- increase when the belief in the state's effectiveness is weakened. At that point, the beatings increase to improve morale, as it were. A state cannot operate without a minimum of legitimacy, i.e., political validity.
Affirmative on Sotherby. Spec building is pretty much zero with most of the builders I know. In the past I believe they were financing 100% of the costs with the bank. I believe now banks are requiring a minimum of 25% down for the most part.
skent | 12.23.08 - 3:35 pm | #
Sotherby had homes that were halfway completed. Banks had frozen their credit, so spec homes stand half-complete.
Do you have a presser on this? I'd like to share as we were on the verge of writing a contract with them when we caught word they were going out.
Banksters LLC,
That was a typo. Wizard is sub human. I know.
Wizard will kill if the cover-ups blow. The media has their work cut out for them spinning this wealth transfer and mass famine coming.
When all else fails in propaganda, police the state!
The unprecedented moves he has made seem dangerous to me even in the intermediate term. A bond bubble only lasts as long as it lasts. Once confidence gets shaky that bubble can collapse along with the USD as fast and hard as commodities.
They may be cultivation a catastrophe much worse than the slump they are trying to avoid.
bearly
Bernanke's recent actions were best described by a UK financial advisor that drew the analogy between Ben's actions and the movie "Das Boot" where the sub commander was pulling on ever lever he had to keep his sub from bottoming. If you saw the movie you know how that turned out.
well it really depends on who you define as masses....
If you posit that we will only have dollars to offer as payment then they have to take them....that assumes that there is not another more viable form of payment.
Over a period of time the world's reserve currency will not be dollar's. So I'm sure that the supplier of the world's "engine" is well aware of that and has taken steps to deal in a market that is not dollar denominated.
Unfortunately the only people who are unaware of the fall of the dollar...own the most of them...excepting the Chinese of course. In their case...they simply don't care...
Ciao
MS
Yeah Ghost. That's the 'Legitimation Crisis'. Has been managed somewaht by the media. But internet has allowed more access to info. Predator Cat may be out of the bag. Legitimation of the System may finally be in question globally not just in the USA.
What is a presser?
Bernanke is a smart man and will do what he can to help ease the US and the world into a deep recession.
I think he saw it all from a mile off, and his comments to the contrary were mere casuistry.
presser=press conference
I'd like to believe the former, but what about him makes him so different that he was unlike any of the other folks out there who totally didnt see this coming?
~~~~
We like emergencies when we confiscate large sums of money ... the confusion of a financial panic or war always lends it self to hiding the looting of very large sums of money ... So Bernanke had to hide the damage until it was an emergency ... Shock Doctrine ... still works after all these years ...
banksters clearing....well, that of course is a more cynical interpretation. And one I hate to find myself attributing as possible. But to be fair, it may be that he was co-opted into that position. He could know we are screwed, but also be in a position of having let the system be gamed to the point where this is no good solution, and that the only way he can imagine getting out unwittingly plays into the hands of those who broke the thing in the first place.
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a monied aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. The issuing power (of money) should be taken away from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs."
.......Thomas Jefferso
This is all I have that is in the news.
High-end Plano homebuilder suspends some operations |
News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News
| Latest News
If oil stays at $22-26 through 2009, I'll drink a barrel.
By this time next year, some oil exporters will not accept any amount of dollars. They'll insist on something real.
I take issue with the 2nd premise. That the dollar won't be the exchange mech thru '09.
I'm a believer in a Fast Crash, but that's a little to fast.
And on the first permise, oil in the mid 20's...i do accept that is way to low for all concerns.
banksters LLC,
Do you ever wonder if there are 'agitators' and 'provocateurs' who are encouraging the People to destroy themselves by turning to violence as happened in Revolutionary Russia where millions died for the good of the 'workers'. Nazi Germany was destroyed by economic collapse & a turn to militarism and violence.
Violence can destroy a nation from within. Especially when we end up fighting each other over this Big Ponzi Scam.
You do have to realize that he BB was part of the Greenspan stupidity, but then you have to go back and rethink what he was doing then. Did he know the policies were crap, and just wanted to stay quiet so he could have his turn at the helm? Many people do this..its a way of staying in the system. Dont rock the boat, you'll get your turn. Ive been on the other side...the squeaky wheels get eliminated, and then where would an academic like him turn? SO perhaps he thought he would get his chance to save the day after he saw the catastrophe coming? But I dont think that was it. I think he didnt understand that the monster he was helping to create was so potentially destructive, because he was as died in the wool as Greenspan about the ideology of financial innovation.
I think Ive just convinced myself even more that he is unfit to serve.
Read an article on CRE bonds, loans CMBS. The article was written last Sept. and the firms that were interested in buying were waiting on TARP, thinking that Paulson was going to buy these assets w/TARP money. Of course he didn't. The sellers were interested in selling pre-TARP due to the concern that the Feds would put restrictions on CEO pay etc. and they would get a lower price. The buyers were waiting for TARP to get cheaper price. Article ended with buyers saying they are waiting for the new year when banks put the squeeze on valuations
and that the only way he can imagine getting out unwittingly plays into the hands of those who broke the thing in the first place.
~~~~~
Oh grasshopper, twas We the Fed's owners that screwed the pooch ... Bernanke works for us, his shareholders and board members, the Member Banks. Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, yet .... he never mentions FDRs Bank Holiday ...
Roubini live on Bloomie
the guest writes:
banksters LLC,
Do you ever wonder if there are 'agitators' and 'provocateurs' ...
~~~~
We have them on both sides ... misinformation is as important as the facts ...We don't care if there is violence unless it proves embarrassing ... We usually plant violent people to film so as to show the public that their best interests were served.
From the vid: It's fairly agreed that US banks are insolvent. Chew on that a while.
Supported by policies that provide up to 1,000 acres of free land as well as machinery and equipment discounts of up to 50 percent, Saudi farmers have increased agricultures share of GDP from 1.3 percent in 1970 to more than 7 percent in 2002. The area under cultivation has increased from under 400,000 acres in 1976 to more than 9 million acres today. Agriculture also supplies significant employment opportunities. Today 12 percent of the Saudi workforce is employed in the agricultural sector
Speed writes:
"From the vid: It's fairly agreed that US banks are insolvent. Chew on that a while."
Speed | 12.23.08 - 5:20 pm | #
It all depends on what the definition of "is" is. Oops, I meant "insolvent"
It's fairly agreed that US banks are insolvent.
~~~~
What does it matter? We control the White House and Congress. If they act up we cut off all funding and create an even bigger crisis. There is no escape from our power ...
[I think he saw it all from a mile off, and his comments to the contrary were mere casuistry.
Speed]
Then he flat-out lied in testimony to congress. I believe that is a felony.
Some people are still fretting over bankrupting the US. It's like jumping in a pool and worrying about getting wet.
"US banks are insolvent"
don't shout "RUN" in a crowded bank lobby?
bearly - I find myself continually going back on forth on whether BB knew subprime wasnt contained, and knew the economy was toast and just could not admit it, or whether he was just completely clueless.
Incompetence. Has to be. He has said, in the case of depression, that he would be a crazy pro-inflationist. But, as we started the big slide early last year, he actually cut back money supply growth. He wasn't lying about his intentions (although probably he was exaggerating) because now he is pushing the money supply up (albeit not crazily).
There is no way he thought a major depression was even plausible back in early 2008. His actions prove it.
Fair - I keep finding my way back to that, but it is a hard pill to swallow. I think we are being misled by fools and thieves in every direction but the good ones.
There is no way he thought a major depression was even plausible back in early 2008. His actions prove it.
~~~~
LOL ... we tell him what to do, not ask him to think ... He never had all the data, nor does he now ...
Thread tunes and video:
YouTube -
Geoff, IMO, for the economists, it's a turf dispute. Austrian economics is very unfashionable amongst professional economists, and they frequently denigrate it. But this last cycle pretty much proves the Austrian theory of credit cycles - excessively loose credit promotes bad, wasteful, and ultimately destructive "investments" and guarantees a slowdown or worse later. (Standard economics implicitly assumes all investment is good.)
Bernanke, like almost all professional economists, is committed to disagreeing with Austrians because they're a different school than he is. He is apparently what I would call a "Central Bankist", which is a kind of marriage of Keynesianism with free marketers that holds all macroeconomic control should be done through interest rate manipulations, with no role for regulation or fiscal stimulus.
The effect is similar to how political divisions make adherents of either party denigrate ideas or actions from the other side even when they are right and well supported by facts.
Anoddamoose writes:
I agree that the Treasury bubble has not ... quite yet ... run its course. Thoughts on the next bubble when it does? Equities? Gold? Other commodities? Foreign currencies?
Anoddamoose | 12.23.08 - 4:11 pm
American chutzpah.
In the long run, don't short SAM.
Oil Equations(Unrated) writes:
I take issue with the 2nd premise. That the dollar won't be the exchange mech thru '09.
I'm a believer in a Fast Crash, but that's a little to fast.
Do you think the US has a realistic chance of paying down its debt without default or cramdown-through-inflation?
I bet not, because, there is no realistic chance of that happening.
Thus, Treasuries should not offer the yields they do. Things are coasting along on habit, inertia and lack of alternatives.
This game could be over as soon as 1 second from now.
Not sayin' it will be, just sayin'.
Speed(Good) writes:
From the vid: It's fairly agreed that US banks are insolvent. Chew on that a while.
Dude, it's been almost 2 years. I'm glad that the mainstream media is picking up on it, but the banks all being insolvent is pretty old news.
Don't mean to drop one on your dome, yo, but dawg, the US gvt is bankrupt too.
O/T
Concerning all those cars piling up at the ports.
Why not just contact Honda USA, Nissan, etc and
see if they will sell directly to you ? Can't hurt to ask
and you might get a deal.
Dollar... I am even thinking now about the possibility that we might divide it into export and domestic currency classes.
Export class is regular old dollars, funded by selling treasuires as usual.
Domestic class is these new Bernanke Bux, funded by Fed debt issuance. Only the export class is convertible.
I dunno, foil hatty stuff to think about.
Hard for me to see how the dollar fares well in this. But if everyone's devaluing at once, is anyone poorer, except when they have to buy some fungible real goods?
Geoff writes:
bearly - I find myself continually going back on forth on whether BB knew subprime wasnt contained, and knew the economy was toast and just could not admit it, or whether he was just completely clueless.
I'd like to believe the former, but what about him makes him so different that he was unlike any of the other folks out there who totally didnt see this coming?
Granted there are the ones who know it, but who cant say it (one of which you might think is a Zandi, who is hitched to Moodys, the criminal organization/ratings racket, but I dont really think so - Ive run across him a few times in my previous work - he is just your typical optimistic there will be growth economist types.) Im not sure who there are. But there are also the Kasriel's, etc, who are not doomsayers who seem to have wised up relatively quickly.
I think as time goes by Im slowly leaning more and more to the incompetence side. Just because the guy studied a lot about historical economics, that doesnt make him all that. A LOT of people go through the Econ PhD programs, and Ive studied with plenty. And some of us realize what a game it is and get out while we are still sane. But the geniuses are rare. And even when their credentials say genius, they can be blindsided by ideology.
I definitely think this is the case. It is the same with physicians. I have worked with them for 25 years and recently had a cancer problem which immersed me further into the medical system (much further than I ever wanted to be immersed).
Probably 75% of what they do is a guess.
Scary.
PS Girl - my SO is in the med school indoctrination process at the moment. I see how it works, and it is guaranteed to produce as many bad doctors as their are bad economists.
Fair - the Austrian's were not even remotely considered legit when I was in school a while back. And for the life of me, I cannot understand why. It's not like they were saying the earth revolves around the sun. I think this episode in history will go a good ways toward clearing their names.
What is a presser?
skent | 12.23.08 - 5:05 pm | #
I'm trying to sound cool, which I clearly am not. A press release.
"PS Girl - my SO is in the med school indoctrination process at the moment. I see how it works, and it is guaranteed to produce as many bad doctors as their are bad economists."
Unfortunately, I have to agree with you. I dated a freshly minted psychiatrist (MD + mental health training for anyone who doesn't know the difference between psychiatrist and psychologist).
I told her things about some of her clients that I had never met which surprised her. Like that she would have to reduce the antidepressant dosages with her patient that was now exercising regularly and losing weight. She had only heard a little bit about dieters depression from her training. She also didn't know about the athlete's mood profile.