Housing is at the heart of the problem and existing home sales plunged a record 8.6 percent in November to a 4.49 million-unit annual rate, while a separate new homes sales report showed they retreated at a slower 2.9 percent pace.
The median existing home price fell 13.2 percent on an annual basis, down for a fifth straight month to $181,300.
It was the largest drop since the current data series began in 1968 and probably the largest since the Great Depression, said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
More likely, it's to raise new capital to pay off redemption requests.
Can you say "Ponzi?" I know that you can.
Feckless Ness
I don't think it is that cut and dried. The funds are caught in an "illiquidity trap." New capital infusions allow them to meet redemptions and thereby not be forced into fire sales of assets. Now all of us here know they are carrying assets on their books at total fantasy valuations but this is their only option at this point. Mark to market is the same as marked for death.
Stephen Seagal is back! And now, he's cleaning up Wall Street!
Seagal: What is the mark-to-market value of these assets?
Dirtball Banker: Those assets are good deal; they're only down 15% this year!
Seagal: If I find out you're lying, I'll come back and kill you in your own kitchen.
Paulsen, Bernanke, Summers, Geithner... they will all be traded... on the lead exchange!
Paulsen: So, where did you get your MBA? Harvard Business, Wharton?
Seagal: Nah. I'm just a cook?
Geithner: A cook?
Seagal: Just a lowly, lowly, cook.
Bernanke (standing in a puddle of urine from pants rundown): Oh, my, God, we're gonna die!
Does the Federal Reserve know who is cooking in their kitchen?
Seagal: I'm gonna take you to the bank... the blood bank!
Coming, in 2009! It's Marked To Death!
(TV on with Bernanke going off on containment) Seagal: What kind of babbling bullshit is this?
Seagal: You guys think you're above the law... well... you ain't above mine!
Now all of us here know they are carrying assets on their books at total fantasy valuations...
--Rob Dawg
I have to wonder how prevalent that practice is. I received an end of the year statement from the Teamsters Fund from which I draw a small pension. According to them, their fund grew last year by about 2%, (with employer contributions and pension payments being near-equal).
Similarly, our County Treasurer here has admitted to no losses in the fund he administers.
A friend of mine is told by his investment advisor that he's up 8% for the year.
Yet US equities markets are down some eight trillion, and RRE down about three trillion.
How many Madoff's are out there waiting to be revealed?
Sorry folks... that's what happens when I'm left with the screaming baby and TV on late at night. I start to go delusional...
Just right now I thought I saw an infomercial where some chick was getting all hot to talk talk to someone willing to trade their gold for a timeshare... and then she would refinance that timeshare using a fly-by-night company whose name made it feel like you were dealing with the US Gov when you weren't.
Deflation, Reflation, Inflation, OR ALL THREE is the title of the new post at Stock Shotz
Check out the article as these guys outline why they think inflation is on the way and how the deflation in prices that we have seen lately is going to actually contribute to inflation in the near future. This post is not what I wanted to hear, but it made me think.
YLSP - oh, I hear, you, I hear you. Why d'ya reckon I'm up? Solidarity! I'm sooo inclined to whiskey in the milk bottle but I'm prevented from doing so by higher authorities...
The hotel bust is not just in the US. I've been walking across my icy crunchy lawn for a smoke every hour or so and thinking BEACH. So, a wee surf on hotwire or expedia gives the most astonishing deals - thousand bucky for Carib adventure, 7 days all inclusive food and drink, in multiple spots. That looks desperate. For them I mean.
Looks like a model coming apart, it seems. Might do some research and come back on tourism, airlines, hotels, Caribbean.
Speaking of chessboards and the Magic of Compound Interest, the ancient Babylonians, who - as everybody knows - invented compound interest, also found it expedient to declare a Clean Slate from time to time, as on those occasions when public debt due to wars and/or famine had become overly burdensome.
Yes the Jews codified it as the Jubilee year, 7X7. But no protection of bankruptcy, you lose everything, then you start clean. Of course private property was a very different concept.
Dark Star is a 2001 spoof. The computer, an atom bomb, has decided to blow up the ship in a suicide mission. The astronaut stalls by convincing him that he isn't real and can't make intelligent decisions. But he reasons that the only way to prove his existence is to explode. The end.
Not sure where this is heading but... my take is that private property as such didn't exist until the end of feudalism and the transition from Feudalism (state ownership) to the Renaissance...and the invention of banksters.
What we are seeing now is a reversal of that as the one very probable outcome of this whole debacle is complete nationalization of everything from banks to defaulted private residences and attachments.
What do I do? Parent, expatriate, work for a big finance house, multiple lines of biz and exposure, obsessed with the meltdown. Y'know, the usual. Sleep patterns completely random.
That's just the ending. Also spoofs Star Trek. Some absolutely hilarious parts. The astronauts have been in space for years, so naturally they grow their hair long and listen to hard rock. (1974) But I won't spoil it.
Yep, highly restrictive, no proprietary on the site, only analysis of public information, blah blah. If your do Cr Companion there's a long discussion about the situation. Loadsa lawyers trying to "help" out.
gn The last article I saw estimated JPM's net exposure at .5-1% 450-900 billion IF the counterparty line held reasonably well. But no one will talk about it, like the constant winter fog over Lima.
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Like some of Bernard Madoffs clients, a Florida restaurant owner was lucky enough to withdraw part of his investment before the money manager allegedly confessed to a $50 billion Ponzi scheme. Now hes worried he might be asked to give it back.
He and other Madoff clients who withdrew funds as long as six years ago may be sued on behalf of other victims to return profits and even principal, securities and bankruptcy lawyers say.
I have to wonder how prevalent that practice is. I received an end of the year statement from the Teamsters Fund from which I draw a small pension. According to them, their fund grew last year by about 2%, (with employer contributions and pension payments being near-equal).
Similarly, our County Treasurer here has admitted to no losses in the fund he administers.
A friend of mine is told by his investment advisor that he's up 8% for the year.
Yet US equities markets are down some eight trillion, and RRE down about three trillion.
my boss, an aussie msm, posted on the intranet we wage slave investors lost 16.75 per cent on our superann fund this year
choice
spose they could be bullshitting and it's a lot worse
Booked a hotel for a little getaway later in the week earlier in the month. Wife was checking online booking sites a few days ago, and noticed they had lowered their prices, so we canceled and booked again at the lower price. Don't take too many vacations, but this has never happened to me before. This is in Monterey, CA.
Interesting that Latvia was bailed out by the IMF. The Swedes and Germans spent a lot there, I think. With means Estonia and Lithuania will probably follow.
Hotel rooms. Among the people I grew up with a vacation never involved hotel rooms usually. It meant driving to a relatives house where you would spend your time off.
Going abroad meant going to Indiana or someplace else exotic.
o recession in Austria....I tried for 2 weeks on the internet(the thing they don;t have in the Whitehouse) to get 4 or 5 star ski hotel in good resort for New Year. Ended up in South Tyrol(Italy) which is great but obviously seasonal demands and good snow mean many hotels are full. This was all done at the start of Dec. At least 6 places had me on their waiting list for cancellations.....I'm still waiting on a single offer.
That has to be making some people really happy - and they are all lawyers...
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Like some of Bernard Madoffs clients, a Florida restaurant owner was lucky enough to withdraw part of his investment before the money manager allegedly confessed to a $50 billion Ponzi scheme. Now hes worried he might be asked to give it back.
The 53-year-old investor, who asked not to be identified to protect his stake, took out about $600,000 this year from his $1.5 million account, using some of it to pay down a mortgage. He and other Madoff clients who withdrew funds as long as six years ago may be sued on behalf of other victims to return profits and even principal, securities and bankruptcy lawyers say.
Right now there are Madoff winners and Madoff losers, said Lynn LoPucki, who teaches bankruptcy law at Harvard University. Before this is over there will be nothing but Madoff losers.
Rob Dawg(Excellent) writes: I don't think it is that cut and dried. The funds are caught in an "illiquidity trap." New capital infusions allow them to meet redemptions and thereby not be forced into fire sales of assets.
I think the degree to which this mirrors ponzi scheme operation should cause some concern among people putting money in these fund structures. Not that they are one and all scams, but they look so much like one that if you just leave out the assets, you can imitate one for quite some time.
In response to your observation, Rob, I definitely have to agree that the DA / Fed attorney / attorney gnl will have to walk a long way to hang pure fraudulent intent on you if you actually traded with a discernible strategy.
But, from an investor's standpoint, it's distinction without difference. Does it matter if they lose it for you, or steal it from you? Either way the venus fly trap finishes digesting its meal and opens once more. Wanna rest those weary Keds?
In response to your observation, Rob, I definitely have to agree that the DA / Fed attorney / attorney gnl will have to walk a long way to hang pure fraudulent intent on you if you actually traded with a discernible strategy.
Depends on what is in their email and how the money ended up in their account. Juries are not going to take a lot to be convinced
The Madoff Victims: Schadenfreude, Not Anti-Semitism
by Daniel McGowan / December 22nd, 2008
As the news of Bernard Madoffs colossal fraud focused on Americas most important Jewish tycoons and moguls, it was only a matter of hours before the story was spun around their victimhood with the usual cudgels of anti-Semitism and the Holocaust. In Israel, columnist Bradley Burston spun the story best by declaring, The anti-Semites new Santa is Bernard Madoff. The Aryan Nation at its most delusional couldnt have come up with anything to rival this.
As the list of Madoffs victims grows, their common characteristic is not philanthropy, but rather political Zionism. Virtually all have worked to build a Jewish state with little regard, and often downright hatred, for the non-Jewish population living there.
The money from this type of mogul or ganzer macher has been used to dehumanize and depopulate non-Jews in Palestine for over 120 years. But in spite of creating a strong Israeli economy based on guns, diamonds, and security services and in spite of walling Arabs in Bantustans in the West Bank and in the KZ lager known as Gaza, they have failed. Non-Jews outnumber Jews within the borders controlled by Israel, which makes a mockery out of calling it a Jewish state.
Right now there are Madoff winners and Madoff losers, said Lynn LoPucki, who teaches bankruptcy law at Harvard University. Before this is over there will be nothing but Madoff losers.
^^^
My vote for summary quote of the era starting with the engineered collapse of Bear.
BIL got a great deal on a New Hampshire ski vacation for the holiday. Just canceled it because yesterday he got a better deal at Sunday River- a room with a kitchenet right on the slopes for a week-$1000
Where I work in Providence, Rhode Island where there has been a glut of new high rise luxury hotels. There is even one clueless jerk of a developer still intending to put up yet another new high rise hotel using one of the last parking lots in downtown. The dope evidently doesn't read the newspapers full of stories about other hotels (and condo developments) being empty and on the verge of bankruptcy. What is it with developers? Are they that stupid? Do they actually think the proposiiton that "If I build it, they will come" is a sound economic principle?
Echoing Comrade Byzantine_Ruins, if I were an investor in ANY hedge fund that had "raised the gates" I'd be panic-stricken over the veracity of returns posted over the past two years . . . . . not because of fears of a ponzi scheme, but because you know the returns are overstated due to illiquid holdings (the reason for raising the gates in the first place) and asymmetric estimation errors.
Without getting your investment back, there's no way to know how much the returns are overstated so you really don't know what your investment is worth. That's a bothersome condition in an uncertain market environment.
The fact that some large hedge funds of note are claiming: (a) that they have plenty of liquidity, and (b) they have holdings of 20%+ cash, yet (c) they won't honor only 10%-15% of redemption notices IS A HUGE RED FLAG, in my opinion.
In the wake of Madoff, I just don't think that raising the gates is an intelligent long-term strategy for an industry under seige, unless of course not raising the gates and meeting the redemptions exposes naked flesh you can't bear to show the world . . . . . .
Going to Colorado first week in January with friends and cousins. R/T Airfare ranges from 250-370. 4 Bedroom condo with hot tub 100 yards from lift 3400 for the week. Sleeps 11. Skied at St Anton, Austria 2 years ago. Won't go back. They don't like Americans and the food stinks. Breckenridge is a better mountain any
Hedge funds don't operate as an industry. They are the model of free market capitalism. Little regulation, individual mavericks going their owwn way. Long-term strategy? 1. Make millions on Ponzi (subconscious variety) profits from your 2 +20% in the boom years. 2.Try to avoid pitchforks.
1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Hedge funds don't operate as an industry.
They operate with the blessing of the FED
Hedge funds will be allowed to borrow from the Federal Reserve for the first time under a landmark $200-billion program intended to support consumer credit.
Very bad but predictable if you evaluated The Crash in k-wave terms. Many "investors" bought in again in 2008 based on the price curve of the 1990-1995 crash.
Wow.
A whole 'nother wave of speculators wiped out again in 2009.
.
So which one would you prefer? Terminator II future with big bad Skynet or Mad Max world with really cool beach buggies and weird hairdos? I'd personally vote for Terminator but that is just me.
Things go up, things go down. That's just what things do. Here's my arm-chair psychologist at work: making correct predictions causes the brain to release endorphins. Feeling like you are one of the few who sees what is really going on makes you feel special. Being surrounded by like-minded individuals also makes you feel welcome and accepted.
All of which leads to disaster junkie-ism. People need ever increasing levels of catastrophe to get their fix. Any piece of bad news is carefully chewed-over and placed into the mosaic, while good news is downplayed or outright ignored. The same thing happens on the other side, with the optimism junkies, such as Larry Kudlow, blabbing on and on about his mustard seeds.
Everything is worse than you think; everything is better than you think; everything will be pretty much the same tomorrow as it was yesterday. Take your pick. But try to avoid that little thrill and shiver up your spine when you turn out to be right, because that's your monkey brain thinking for you instead of your rational brain.
"And how should Americans feel about the growing Chinese presence in their economy? Isnt it natural for them to worry that China will keep increasing its stake in American debt and assetsor that China wont, essentially cutting America off?"
Responds Gao Xiqing, president of the China Investment Corporation:
"I can understand why Americans might feel that way. But, talking with my lawyer head once again, its not relevant to discuss how Americans should think. We should discuss how Americans might think.
This concern is not really about China itself. It could be any country. It could be Japan, or Germany. This generation of Americans is so used to your supremacy. Your being treated nicely by everyone. It hurts to think, Okay, now we have to be on equal footing to other people. On equal footing would necessarily mean that sometimes you have to stoop to appear to be humble to other people.
And you cant think as a soldier. You put yourself at the enemy end of everyone. I grew up during the Cultural Revolution, when people really treated other people like enemies. I grew up in an environment where our friends, our relatives, people I called Uncle or Auntie, could turn around and put a nasty face to me as a small child. One time, Vladimir Lenin told Gorky, after reading Gorkys autobiography, Oh my god! You could have become a very nasty person! Those are exactly the words one of my dear professors told me after hearing what I went through.
But over the years, I believe I learned to be humble. To treat other people nicely. I learned that, from a social point of view, no matter how lowly statured a person you are talking to, as a person, they are the same human being as you are. You have to respect them. You have to apologize if you inadvertently hurt them. And often you have to go out of your way to be nice to them, because they will not like you simply because of the difference in social structure.
Americans are not sensitive in that regard. I mean, as a whole. The simple truth today is that your economy is built on the global economy. And its built on the support, the gratuitous support, of a lot of countries. So why dont you come over and I wont say kowtow [with a laugh], but at least, be nice to the countries that lend you money.
Talk to the Chinese! Talk to the Middle Easterners! And pull your troops back! Take the troops back, demobilize many of the troops, so that you can save some money rather than spending $2 billion every day on them. And then tell your people that you need to save, and come out with a long-term, sustainable financial policy.
From Bloomberg.com >Unadjusted for inflation, spending dropped 0.6 percent last month, a record fifth consecutive decline, Commerce said. The decline reflected a 1.1 percent plunge in prices that was the biggest since record began in 1992.<
Counterpointer(Excellent) writes: Ok, I Officially Don't Geddit.
Equities don't trade in the real world.
I think today is a big up.
Friday, big down.
I shout this stuff from the sidelines, without a betting book. "Go big horse! Yeah, run like hell! I bet you got good teeth!" I'm sure the gamblers hate me but it's fun.
But try to avoid that little thrill and shiver up your spine when you turn out to be right, because that's your monkey brain thinking for you instead of your rational brain
What the hell are you talking about, that thrill is the whole point of thing.
U.S. Consumer Spending Adjusted for Inflation DEFLATION Rose in November
Much better.
Hotels will have to be mothballed soon. What the heck was Wynn thinking with 'Encore?' The only people I know traveling are bargain hunters or are staying with family. This isn't exactly the clientele to make hotel owners rich.
"Assume Crash Positions! writes:
And futures jump on the news. The weather is so predictable here in bizarro world"
Economic conditions vs Expectations of Market.
The story I believe (with a hint of hoping...that's a strategy right?) is that the market was behind for a year and a half or so then it started waking up with the failure of Lehman brothers in mid-September hitting the low on October 10th. From that day through today, the market has withstood the worst economic news with significant support above 8,000 Dow, minus the low on Nov 20th. Consider all the news that has rushed our way since Oct 10th, and just one day below the 7,700 in the meantime.
I believe many people are not considering the impact of what has already occurred in the markets over the last 13 mos, more specifically the capitulation over the last 3 mos. The speed and depth of the market decline has been truly historic indeed.
The Big O, has been doing everything he can to provide confidence and support to the market. I thought we would finish December above where we started and we are running out of time or me to be right on that point.
Regardless, I still believe the equity markets will shift to a higher zone (ie mid 9,s to mid 10's) by the end of March based on the clarity of 2009 expectations that we will have at that time. It is NOT because everything is good, but because bubbles operate on the pattern. Exuberance quickly dominoes to Capitulation. We could experience more capitulation by the end of March, but at that point I believe the worst of expectations will be over (for 2009). IMO.
"PapaSloth writes:
Things go up, things go down. That's just what things do. Here's my arm-chair psychologist at work: making correct predictions causes the brain to release endorphins. Feeling like you are one of the few who sees what is really going on makes you feel special. Being surrounded by like-minded individuals also makes you feel welcome and accepted.
All of which leads to disaster junkie-ism. People need ever increasing levels of catastrophe to get their fix. Any piece of bad news is carefully chewed-over and placed into the mosaic, while good news is downplayed or outright ignored. The same thing happens on the other side, with the optimism junkies, such as Larry Kudlow, blabbing on and on about his mustard seeds.
Everything is worse than you think; everything is better than you think; everything will be pretty much the same tomorrow as it was yesterday. Take your pick. But try to avoid that little thrill and shiver up your spine when you turn out to be right, because that's your monkey brain thinking for you instead of your rational brain."
I shout this stuff from the sidelines, without a betting book. "Go big horse! Yeah, run like hell! I bet you got good teeth!" Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:09 am | #
Taking a swipe at the shifting response of the Treasury and Fed in addressing the financial crisis, he said: "When these gale-force winds hit our markets, there were panicked cries to change any and every rule of the marketplace: 'Let's try this. Let's try that.' What was needed was a steady hand."
Will your 2009 earnings expectations account for trillions in Fed lending and Tarp bailing? Because they're putting a record amount of lipstick on 2008 numbers.
Sorry to hear that you have been replaced by a small Perl script. sm_landlord | 12.24.08 - 9:33 am | #
Hey, it works for Nemo!!
I don't really weep that much..... I cashed in over 75% of my shorts back in November, at or near the lows. I have <5% of my money in March SPY 60s, half that much in HIG June 12.5s, and a small bear spread in Jan COF. The rest is cash, except for some March SPY 130 calls, which are currently bid at 0.00.
Counterpointer:
The answer, at least following the meltdown of the Legalists and Confucians over 2000 years ago was that the latter prevailed... say what?
Not sure I buy that. Neither would my old Prof Theodore de Bary. Wish I could stay up with your Mandarin. Once had a good handle on it via Eastern Languages and Cultures at Columbia back in the early '80s but chucked after Jack Welch convinced me that China was "a shell game".
I'm sure you're aware it was rehabbed under Mao to undermine Confucianism.
Even Mao admitted he couldn't defeat the concept of jen (ren).
Celebrating people who have killed themselves due to financial issues or financial fraud. I personally feel the edge of the world has just tilted to a darker place.
I used to be happy to be a bear, I think its just gone downhill.
Booked a room in Lafayette, La for Monday 12/28 going on business, at a Hampton Inn & Suites and it was $89 & change...this property is about 3 or 4 yrs old and I never was able to get in under $100...tale of the times & the oil patch is starting to soften.
Can it be?
Jeez, sure wish I had something to say. How about... I'm up late and NOT in a hotel?
Taking Nemo's vacant space, eh Clem?
Housing is at the heart of the problem and existing home sales plunged a record 8.6 percent in November to a 4.49 million-unit annual rate, while a separate new homes sales report showed they retreated at a slower 2.9 percent pace.
The median existing home price fell 13.2 percent on an annual basis, down for a fifth straight month to $181,300.
It was the largest drop since the current data series began in 1968 and probably the largest since the Great Depression, said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
Deflation has interesting repercussions.
This goes better on the previous thread, but I'm guessing it's dead.
Have heard from a couple of sources about previously closed funds opening up to new investors, as if that's a good thing.
More likely, it's to raise new capital to pay off redemption requests.
Can you say "Ponzi?" I know that you can.
¿edonadoocooh
More likely, it's to raise new capital to pay off redemption requests.
Can you say "Ponzi?" I know that you can.
Feckless Ness
I don't think it is that cut and dried. The funds are caught in an "illiquidity trap." New capital infusions allow them to meet redemptions and thereby not be forced into fire sales of assets. Now all of us here know they are carrying assets on their books at total fantasy valuations but this is their only option at this point. Mark to market is the same as marked for death.
I hope you caught mp's joke at the end of the last thread.
Which btw was one of the better threads in many a moon.
Dawg - mark to market is the same as a bad Steven Seagal movie? OK, I can see that.
Dirk, thanks for your response on the earlier dead thread to your Dec. strategy piece.
Stephen Seagal is back! And now, he's cleaning up Wall Street!
Seagal: What is the mark-to-market value of these assets?
Dirtball Banker: Those assets are good deal; they're only down 15% this year!
Seagal: If I find out you're lying, I'll come back and kill you in your own kitchen.
Paulsen, Bernanke, Summers, Geithner... they will all be traded... on the lead exchange!
Paulsen: So, where did you get your MBA? Harvard Business, Wharton?
Seagal: Nah. I'm just a cook?
Geithner: A cook?
Seagal: Just a lowly, lowly, cook.
Bernanke (standing in a puddle of urine from pants rundown): Oh, my, God, we're gonna die!
Does the Federal Reserve know who is cooking in their kitchen?
Seagal: I'm gonna take you to the bank... the blood bank!
Coming, in 2009! It's Marked To Death!
(TV on with Bernanke going off on containment)
Seagal: What kind of babbling bullshit is this?
Seagal: You guys think you're above the law... well... you ain't above mine!
Now all of us here know they are carrying assets on their books at total fantasy valuations...
--Rob Dawg
I have to wonder how prevalent that practice is. I received an end of the year statement from the Teamsters Fund from which I draw a small pension. According to them, their fund grew last year by about 2%, (with employer contributions and pension payments being near-equal).
Similarly, our County Treasurer here has admitted to no losses in the fund he administers.
A friend of mine is told by his investment advisor that he's up 8% for the year.
Yet US equities markets are down some eight trillion, and RRE down about three trillion.
How many Madoff's are out there waiting to be revealed?
Sorry folks... that's what happens when I'm left with the screaming baby and TV on late at night. I start to go delusional...
Just right now I thought I saw an infomercial where some chick was getting all hot to talk talk to someone willing to trade their gold for a timeshare... and then she would refinance that timeshare using a fly-by-night company whose name made it feel like you were dealing with the US Gov when you weren't.
...grew last year...
In 2008, that is.
Deflation, Reflation, Inflation, OR ALL THREE is the title of the new post at Stock Shotz
Check out the article as these guys outline why they think inflation is on the way and how the deflation in prices that we have seen lately is going to actually contribute to inflation in the near future. This post is not what I wanted to hear, but it made me think.
Recently posted on Twitter:
Reminder: US Government has no money. All of spending we do is foreign debt. Repeat this until you can stop pretending you're confused.
.
Room rates - going down, by the hour.
Should be a market there.
Hank Paulson can beat Deep Blue at chess.
YLSP - oh, I hear, you, I hear you. Why d'ya reckon I'm up? Solidarity! I'm sooo inclined to whiskey in the milk bottle but I'm prevented from doing so by higher authorities...
The hotel bust is not just in the US. I've been walking across my icy crunchy lawn for a smoke every hour or so and thinking BEACH. So, a wee surf on hotwire or expedia gives the most astonishing deals - thousand bucky for Carib adventure, 7 days all inclusive food and drink, in multiple spots. That looks desperate. For them I mean.
Looks like a model coming apart, it seems. Might do some research and come back on tourism, airlines, hotels, Caribbean.
Hmmm.
C
If he loses a piece, he gets 2 new ones from Congress.
If they cut him off, he just changes the rules.
I capitulate.
so what is it you do exactly, contrapuntilist?
Aren't you supposed to sing Daisy now?
Actually, I was thinking of kicking over the board.
.
Speaking of chessboards and the Magic of Compound Interest, the ancient Babylonians, who - as everybody knows - invented compound interest, also found it expedient to declare a Clean Slate from time to time, as on those occasions when public debt due to wars and/or famine had become overly burdensome.
.
Ever see John Carpenter's "Dark Star"?
No, but I just finished watching Werner herzog's "Wild Blue Yonder."
It features abandoned shopping malls.
.
Yes the Jews codified it as the Jubilee year, 7X7. But no protection of bankruptcy, you lose everything, then you start clean. Of course private property was a very different concept.
Dark Star is a 2001 spoof. The computer, an atom bomb, has decided to blow up the ship in a suicide mission. The astronaut stalls by convincing him that he isn't real and can't make intelligent decisions. But he reasons that the only way to prove his existence is to explode. The end.
Not sure where this is heading but... my take is that private property as such didn't exist until the end of feudalism and the transition from Feudalism (state ownership) to the Renaissance...and the invention of banksters.
What we are seeing now is a reversal of that as the one very probable outcome of this whole debacle is complete nationalization of everything from banks to defaulted private residences and attachments.
Dark Star plotline is a rip of a short story by icantrememberhisname sf writer.
Brief pause for resynchronization.
1 currency soon:
What do I do? Parent, expatriate, work for a big finance house, multiple lines of biz and exposure, obsessed with the meltdown. Y'know, the usual. Sleep patterns completely random.
Music solace:
YouTube - PJ Harvey - Down By The Water
C
That's just the ending. Also spoofs Star Trek. Some absolutely hilarious parts. The astronauts have been in space for years, so naturally they grow their hair long and listen to hard rock. (1974) But I won't spoil it.
yogi - having asked the question might you have the grace to respond?
C
Yeah, mine too. Lately it's been 12 on, 48 off at times. Big Finance, eh? Why can't I get anyone to discuss JPM's 90 trillion derivative exposure?
I type slow.
yogi - you're an off balance sheet dude? Now you're talking my language.
July 14 Bloomberg: Citi: $1.1T. Oooh. Wonder what that' made up of? Mostly toxic MBS and terminal ABS.
Yum.
YouTube - PJ Harvey-Long Snake Moan
C
So you must follow a restrictive corporate code of conduct?
I try toat least think for myself, but these days, everyone's a contrarian (as Yogi would say).
OK - I'm crashing.
Yogi - I'll look into that Carpenter film, that (I think) he swiped from Stanislaw Lem.
Could be wrong of course. Might have been Philip K Dick.
Night.
Yep, highly restrictive, no proprietary on the site, only analysis of public information, blah blah. If your do Cr Companion there's a long discussion about the situation. Loadsa lawyers trying to "help" out.
C
Cox now defending his SEC and admitted short selling ban was a mistake but that he was under pressure from Ben and Hank.
They are eating their own now. Things are worse than they seem.
Anonymous - this is gold - source??
C
peeps weren't complaining they were makin' too much money on the way up. them peeps need to shut up on their way down as well.
sheesh!!!
gn
The last article I saw estimated JPM's net exposure at .5-1% 450-900 billion IF the counterparty line held reasonably well. But no one will talk about it, like the constant winter fog over Lima.
Counterpointer:
CNBC.. waiting for it to come to the online edition.
yogi - c'mon, go to marketoracle.co.uk or deepcapture.com and you'll find plenty of stories about dodgy stuff.
In the meantime:
YouTube - PJ Harvey - Long Snake Moan
Enjoy! It is Christmas after all.
C
Cr Companion? I just have the add-on.
Anonymous - sorry to be pedantic but what is the "it" that you're talking about?
C
Best. Silent. Night. Ever.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNs2iPu9rc8
Hey, Economy! These folks are helping you counting backwards:
YouTube -
See you smaller tomorrow.
C
Madoff Victims May Have to Return Profits, Principal
Russia’s Central Bank Devalues Ruble for Third Time in Week - Bloomberg.com
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Like some of Bernard Madoffs clients, a Florida restaurant owner was lucky enough to withdraw part of his investment before the money manager allegedly confessed to a $50 billion Ponzi scheme. Now hes worried he might be asked to give it back.
He and other Madoff clients who withdrew funds as long as six years ago may be sued on behalf of other victims to return profits and even principal, securities and bankruptcy lawyers say.
Let the games begin.
Anonymous - sorry to be pedantic but what is the "it" that you're talking about?
Cox and all the snakes eating each other to save their own.
unirealist wrote
I have to wonder how prevalent that practice is. I received an end of the year statement from the Teamsters Fund from which I draw a small pension. According to them, their fund grew last year by about 2%, (with employer contributions and pension payments being near-equal).
Similarly, our County Treasurer here has admitted to no losses in the fund he administers.
A friend of mine is told by his investment advisor that he's up 8% for the year.
Yet US equities markets are down some eight trillion, and RRE down about three trillion.
my boss, an aussie msm, posted on the intranet we wage slave investors lost 16.75 per cent on our superann fund this year
choice
spose they could be bullshitting and it's a lot worse
will post the 09 return 365 days from now...
Vatican Rewrites History On Galileo
Vatican Rewrites History On Galileo
Better late than never.
Slippery slope to Darwin, stem cells, but the archaic institutions try what they must to survive, too.
Booked a hotel for a little getaway later in the week earlier in the month. Wife was checking online booking sites a few days ago, and noticed they had lowered their prices, so we canceled and booked again at the lower price. Don't take too many vacations, but this has never happened to me before. This is in Monterey, CA.
Miami beach, yesterday; boutique hotel rack rate $225, got a room on walk up for $100.
The UK is in much worse shape than S. Florida.
BTW, Latvia bailed out by IMF
Typical usage of the money funnelled through Madoff's charities:
Shady land deal unfolds from West Bank to California strip mall
By The Associated Press
Shady land deal unfolds from West Bank to California strip mall - Haaretz - Israel News
Mendacity in the interest of theft.
The UK is in much worse shape than S. Florida
Not possible except in a spiritual way.
.
Interesting that Latvia was bailed out by the IMF. The Swedes and Germans spent a lot there, I think. With means Estonia and Lithuania will probably follow.
Hotel rooms. Among the people I grew up with a vacation never involved hotel rooms usually. It meant driving to a relatives house where you would spend your time off.
Going abroad meant going to Indiana or someplace else exotic.
This may be making a comeback.
o recession in Austria....I tried for 2 weeks on the internet(the thing they don;t have in the Whitehouse) to get 4 or 5 star ski hotel in good resort for New Year. Ended up in South Tyrol(Italy) which is great but obviously seasonal demands and good snow mean many hotels are full. This was all done at the start of Dec. At least 6 places had me on their waiting list for cancellations.....I'm still waiting on a single offer.
jamie | 12.24.08 - 7:11 am
Supposedly it is cheaper for a east coast American to fly to Austria to ski then it is to got to Aspen.
cheaper and the apres ski is also considerably better...not sure they could handle it...lol
I also imagine not so many UK folks in Europe this year with strength of the Euor ....1:1....amazing...
Yes, I think we can finally afford to go to London this summer....
I'm still waiting on a single offer.
jamie | 12.24.08 - 7:11 am | #
you must be part of the recently rich
American Express approved to get $3.4 Billion of Tarp money....WHY? Here is the link to the two page form they filled out to get the money.
The Coming Economic Depression: INCREDIBLE and OUTRAGEOUS! AMERICAN EXPRESS GETTING BAILED OUT! 3.39 BILLION! 2 PAGE APPLICATION ENCLOSED!
Please explain the systemic risk of AMEX, I don't get it.
I wonder if the weakness of GBP will encourage folks to sell off their Spanish/French property at lower Euro prices....
I'm part of the recently very very short UK/US equities...I'm spending it before they take it away by closing my bank and 'disappearing' my cash
jamie | 12.24.08 - 7:20 am |
Supposedly the Germans are buying them.
That has to be making some people really happy - and they are all lawyers...
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Like some of Bernard Madoffs clients, a Florida restaurant owner was lucky enough to withdraw part of his investment before the money manager allegedly confessed to a $50 billion Ponzi scheme. Now hes worried he might be asked to give it back.
The 53-year-old investor, who asked not to be identified to protect his stake, took out about $600,000 this year from his $1.5 million account, using some of it to pay down a mortgage. He and other Madoff clients who withdrew funds as long as six years ago may be sued on behalf of other victims to return profits and even principal, securities and bankruptcy lawyers say.
Right now there are Madoff winners and Madoff losers, said Lynn LoPucki, who teaches bankruptcy law at Harvard University. Before this is over there will be nothing but Madoff losers.
Rob Dawg(Excellent) writes:
I don't think it is that cut and dried. The funds are caught in an "illiquidity trap." New capital infusions allow them to meet redemptions and thereby not be forced into fire sales of assets.
I think the degree to which this mirrors ponzi scheme operation should cause some concern among people putting money in these fund structures. Not that they are one and all scams, but they look so much like one that if you just leave out the assets, you can imitate one for quite some time.
In response to your observation, Rob, I definitely have to agree that the DA / Fed attorney / attorney gnl will have to walk a long way to hang pure fraudulent intent on you if you actually traded with a discernible strategy.
But, from an investor's standpoint, it's distinction without difference. Does it matter if they lose it for you, or steal it from you? Either way the venus fly trap finishes digesting its meal and opens once more. Wanna rest those weary Keds?
Dear Hawaii,
You're in trouble. Big trouble.
signed,
your number two industry (after weed)
In response to your observation, Rob, I definitely have to agree that the DA / Fed attorney / attorney gnl will have to walk a long way to hang pure fraudulent intent on you if you actually traded with a discernible strategy.
Depends on what is in their email and how the money ended up in their account. Juries are not going to take a lot to be convinced
Deconstructing Madoff's fallout...
The Madoff Victims: Schadenfreude, Not Anti-Semitism
by Daniel McGowan / December 22nd, 2008
As the news of Bernard Madoffs colossal fraud focused on Americas most important Jewish tycoons and moguls, it was only a matter of hours before the story was spun around their victimhood with the usual cudgels of anti-Semitism and the Holocaust. In Israel, columnist Bradley Burston spun the story best by declaring, The anti-Semites new Santa is Bernard Madoff. The Aryan Nation at its most delusional couldnt have come up with anything to rival this.
As the list of Madoffs victims grows, their common characteristic is not philanthropy, but rather political Zionism. Virtually all have worked to build a Jewish state with little regard, and often downright hatred, for the non-Jewish population living there.
The money from this type of mogul or ganzer macher has been used to dehumanize and depopulate non-Jews in Palestine for over 120 years. But in spite of creating a strong Israeli economy based on guns, diamonds, and security services and in spite of walling Arabs in Bantustans in the West Bank and in the KZ lager known as Gaza, they have failed. Non-Jews outnumber Jews within the borders controlled by Israel, which makes a mockery out of calling it a Jewish state.
Dissident Voice : The Madoff Victims: Schadenfreude, Not Anti-Semitism
-
Right now there are Madoff winners and Madoff losers, said Lynn LoPucki, who teaches bankruptcy law at Harvard University. Before this is over there will be nothing but Madoff losers.
^^^
My vote for summary quote of the era starting with the engineered collapse of Bear.
Before this is over there will be nothing but losers.
Edited for everyone.
Madoff got the ponzi scheme idea from Bernanke
BIL got a great deal on a New Hampshire ski vacation for the holiday. Just canceled it because yesterday he got a better deal at Sunday River- a room with a kitchenet right on the slopes for a week-$1000
Where I work in Providence, Rhode Island where there has been a glut of new high rise luxury hotels. There is even one clueless jerk of a developer still intending to put up yet another new high rise hotel using one of the last parking lots in downtown. The dope evidently doesn't read the newspapers full of stories about other hotels (and condo developments) being empty and on the verge of bankruptcy. What is it with developers? Are they that stupid? Do they actually think the proposiiton that "If I build it, they will come" is a sound economic principle?
CR, do you get tired of being right? You should occasionally make posts about your day to day errors to prove you are human.
"Poured half and half into my coffee today, it had gone bad"
Maybe even a graph about half and half spoilage. If not I believe you are looking at cult leadership, and that never works out well.
Echoing Comrade Byzantine_Ruins, if I were an investor in ANY hedge fund that had "raised the gates" I'd be panic-stricken over the veracity of returns posted over the past two years . . . . . not because of fears of a ponzi scheme, but because you know the returns are overstated due to illiquid holdings (the reason for raising the gates in the first place) and asymmetric estimation errors.
Without getting your investment back, there's no way to know how much the returns are overstated so you really don't know what your investment is worth. That's a bothersome condition in an uncertain market environment.
The fact that some large hedge funds of note are claiming: (a) that they have plenty of liquidity, and (b) they have holdings of 20%+ cash, yet (c) they won't honor only 10%-15% of redemption notices IS A HUGE RED FLAG, in my opinion.
In the wake of Madoff, I just don't think that raising the gates is an intelligent long-term strategy for an industry under seige, unless of course not raising the gates and meeting the redemptions exposes naked flesh you can't bear to show the world . . . . . .
Going to Colorado first week in January with friends and cousins. R/T Airfare ranges from 250-370. 4 Bedroom condo with hot tub 100 yards from lift 3400 for the week. Sleeps 11.
Skied at St Anton, Austria 2 years ago. Won't go back. They don't like Americans and the food stinks. Breckenridge is a better mountain any
Hedge funds don't operate as an industry. They are the model of free market capitalism. Little regulation, individual mavericks going their owwn way. Long-term strategy? 1. Make millions on Ponzi (subconscious variety) profits from your 2 +20% in the boom years. 2.Try to avoid pitchforks.
1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Hedge funds don't operate as an industry.
They operate with the blessing of the FED
Hedge funds will be allowed to borrow from the Federal Reserve for the first time under a landmark $200-billion program intended to support consumer credit.
Jobless claims up big...
And futures jump on the news. The weather is so predictable here in bizarro world.
Actually, jobs number was only one of the releases at 8:30:
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fell Less Than Forecast in November
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fell Less Than Forecast (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
U.S. Consumer Spending Adjusted for Inflation Rose in November
U.S. Consumer Spending Declines Less Than Forecast (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
And lots of mortgage apps last week (how many will actually close is, of course, a big question)
U.S. MBA’s Mortgage Applications Index Jumped 48% Last Week - Bloomberg.com
Truly insane. When the TALF falls FLAT the Fed could be dead.
BTW, interesting that as of 8:40, Bloomberg has those three stories on the front page but no mention of the jobs report.
rouble devauled for third time.
welcome comrade. We have rationed bullets. You must share one with your 5 neighbors if you wish to remove your troubles.
More Chart Pron:
Chart of the Day for December 24th points out that house prices have gone "reverse parabolic" and the rate of decrease is increasing...
Chart of the Day - www.chartoftheday.com
Yee-haw!
[waves cowboy hat]
Amazing. Is there any US industry (other than big pharma) not up to its ears in debt?
Thank goodness our landlords the Chinese are so nice.
Russian stock market down 70% inflation at 14%.
On Second hand comrade, try the bathtub vodka.
Wonder what shill will rate those consumer credit backed securities. The Big 3 have been warned.
the rate of decrease is increasing...
Very bad but predictable if you evaluated The Crash in k-wave terms. Many "investors" bought in again in 2008 based on the price curve of the 1990-1995 crash.
Wow.
A whole 'nother wave of speculators wiped out again in 2009.
.
Madoff ran another ponzi before he admitted this one.
The other was much bigger and more people lost, it was and still is called the Nasdaq.
Reverse parabolic?
My hometown newspaper has a headline today: "Economy may be nearing the bottom".
The headline writer must not have seen that chart.
So which one would you prefer? Terminator II future with big bad Skynet or Mad Max world with really cool beach buggies and weird hairdos? I'd personally vote for Terminator but that is just me.
The hotels that I frequently frequent are holding steady on their hourly rates. Though they appear to be cutting back on housekeeping.
Another "Rookie Day" today on the Street. Fasten your seat belts.
"Another "Rookie Day" today on the Street. Fasten your seat belts."
Has looked an awful lot like a "rookie week" so far. I can't imagine Friday is going to change that either.
Things go up, things go down. That's just what things do. Here's my arm-chair psychologist at work: making correct predictions causes the brain to release endorphins. Feeling like you are one of the few who sees what is really going on makes you feel special. Being surrounded by like-minded individuals also makes you feel welcome and accepted.
All of which leads to disaster junkie-ism. People need ever increasing levels of catastrophe to get their fix. Any piece of bad news is carefully chewed-over and placed into the mosaic, while good news is downplayed or outright ignored. The same thing happens on the other side, with the optimism junkies, such as Larry Kudlow, blabbing on and on about his mustard seeds.
Everything is worse than you think; everything is better than you think; everything will be pretty much the same tomorrow as it was yesterday. Take your pick. But try to avoid that little thrill and shiver up your spine when you turn out to be right, because that's your monkey brain thinking for you instead of your rational brain.
I'm sure others have linked to this, but there is a great article in The Atlantic with advice from our Chinese friends on our debts:
“Be Nice to the Countries That Lend You Money” - The Atlantic
(December 2008)
The Atlantic's James Fallows asks:
"And how should Americans feel about the growing Chinese presence in their economy? Isnt it natural for them to worry that China will keep increasing its stake in American debt and assetsor that China wont, essentially cutting America off?"
Responds Gao Xiqing, president of the China Investment Corporation:
"I can understand why Americans might feel that way. But, talking with my lawyer head once again, its not relevant to discuss how Americans should think. We should discuss how Americans might think.
This concern is not really about China itself. It could be any country. It could be Japan, or Germany. This generation of Americans is so used to your supremacy. Your being treated nicely by everyone. It hurts to think, Okay, now we have to be on equal footing to other people. On equal footing would necessarily mean that sometimes you have to stoop to appear to be humble to other people.
And you cant think as a soldier. You put yourself at the enemy end of everyone. I grew up during the Cultural Revolution, when people really treated other people like enemies. I grew up in an environment where our friends, our relatives, people I called Uncle or Auntie, could turn around and put a nasty face to me as a small child. One time, Vladimir Lenin told Gorky, after reading Gorkys autobiography, Oh my god! You could have become a very nasty person! Those are exactly the words one of my dear professors told me after hearing what I went through.
But over the years, I believe I learned to be humble. To treat other people nicely. I learned that, from a social point of view, no matter how lowly statured a person you are talking to, as a person, they are the same human being as you are. You have to respect them. You have to apologize if you inadvertently hurt them. And often you have to go out of your way to be nice to them, because they will not like you simply because of the difference in social structure.
Americans are not sensitive in that regard. I mean, as a whole. The simple truth today is that your economy is built on the global economy. And its built on the support, the gratuitous support, of a lot of countries. So why dont you come over and I wont say kowtow [with a laugh], but at least, be nice to the countries that lend you money.
Talk to the Chinese! Talk to the Middle Easterners! And pull your troops back! Take the troops back, demobilize many of the troops, so that you can save some money rather than spending $2 billion every day on them. And then tell your people that you need to save, and come out with a long-term, sustainable financial policy.
Ok, I Officially Don't Geddit. Futures green:
FUTURES
\tVALUE\tCHANGE\t% CHANGE
Dow\t8,407.00\t19.00\t0.23
S&P 500\t860.00\t1.40\t0.16
NASDAQ 100\t1,186.25\t1.75\t0.15
S&P/TSX 60\t503.40\t3.50\t0.70
Good thing I only do currencies.
Far out.
C
From Bloomberg.com
>Unadjusted for inflation, spending dropped 0.6 percent last month, a record fifth consecutive decline, Commerce said. The decline reflected a 1.1 percent plunge in prices that was the biggest since record began in 1992.<
Has looked an awful lot like a "rookie week" so far.
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:03 am | #
I agree. Friday (and Monday and Tuesday) though, I'll be travelling, sans laptop (but with the mother-in-law's cookies. Mmmmmm...... cookies........)
I'll leave a cron job scheduled to weep for my puts.
And then tell your people that you need to save, and come out with a long-term, sustainable financial policy.
Paul | 12.24.08 - 9:05 am
No, I don't think so. Why do you hate us?
Counterpointer(Excellent) writes:
Ok, I Officially Don't Geddit.
Equities don't trade in the real world.
I think today is a big up.
Friday, big down.
I shout this stuff from the sidelines, without a betting book. "Go big horse! Yeah, run like hell! I bet you got good teeth!" I'm sure the gamblers hate me but it's fun.
But try to avoid that little thrill and shiver up your spine when you turn out to be right, because that's your monkey brain thinking for you instead of your rational brain
What the hell are you talking about, that thrill is the whole point of thing.
U.S. Consumer Spending Adjusted for Inflation DEFLATION Rose in November
Much better.
Hotels will have to be mothballed soon. What the heck was Wynn thinking with 'Encore?' The only people I know traveling are bargain hunters or are staying with family. This isn't exactly the clientele to make hotel owners rich.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
"All of which leads to disaster junkie-ism. People need ever increasing levels of catastrophe to get their fix."
Welcome to the dark side.
Bloomberg headline:
â¢U.S. Consumer Spending Rises by Most in Almost Two Years on Gas Price Drop
If it keeps rising at these rates the frog will never get out of that well.
The Chinese are in no position to lecture anybody on how to manage an economy.
What the hell are you talking about, that thrill is the whole point of thing.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:09 am | #
I'd rather make money. YMMV.
Hotels will have to be mothballed soon. What the heck was Wynn thinking with 'Encore?'
When did he start that project, not break ground, start lining up financing, hiring G.C's, architects, etc. 2003-4 or 5?
"All of which leads to disaster junkie-ism. People need ever increasing levels of catastrophe to get their fix."
My glod! You are so right. Next thing you know - you find the lord and start reading revelations and then you become president
"Assume Crash Positions! writes:
And futures jump on the news. The weather is so predictable here in bizarro world"
Economic conditions vs Expectations of Market.
The story I believe (with a hint of hoping...that's a strategy right?) is that the market was behind for a year and a half or so then it started waking up with the failure of Lehman brothers in mid-September hitting the low on October 10th. From that day through today, the market has withstood the worst economic news with significant support above 8,000 Dow, minus the low on Nov 20th. Consider all the news that has rushed our way since Oct 10th, and just one day below the 7,700 in the meantime.
I believe many people are not considering the impact of what has already occurred in the markets over the last 13 mos, more specifically the capitulation over the last 3 mos. The speed and depth of the market decline has been truly historic indeed.
The Big O, has been doing everything he can to provide confidence and support to the market. I thought we would finish December above where we started and we are running out of time or me to be right on that point.
Regardless, I still believe the equity markets will shift to a higher zone (ie mid 9,s to mid 10's) by the end of March based on the clarity of 2009 expectations that we will have at that time. It is NOT because everything is good, but because bubbles operate on the pattern. Exuberance quickly dominoes to Capitulation. We could experience more capitulation by the end of March, but at that point I believe the worst of expectations will be over (for 2009). IMO.
2010? I'll try to figure that one out next fall.
You are very correct, sir.
"PapaSloth writes:
Things go up, things go down. That's just what things do. Here's my arm-chair psychologist at work: making correct predictions causes the brain to release endorphins. Feeling like you are one of the few who sees what is really going on makes you feel special. Being surrounded by like-minded individuals also makes you feel welcome and accepted.
All of which leads to disaster junkie-ism. People need ever increasing levels of catastrophe to get their fix. Any piece of bad news is carefully chewed-over and placed into the mosaic, while good news is downplayed or outright ignored. The same thing happens on the other side, with the optimism junkies, such as Larry Kudlow, blabbing on and on about his mustard seeds.
Everything is worse than you think; everything is better than you think; everything will be pretty much the same tomorrow as it was yesterday. Take your pick. But try to avoid that little thrill and shiver up your spine when you turn out to be right, because that's your monkey brain thinking for you instead of your rational brain."
General Chiang Kai Gerkinov writes:
The Chinese are in no position to lecture anybody on how to manage an economy.
Well, that's not very nice.
I shout this stuff from the sidelines, without a betting book. "Go big horse! Yeah, run like hell! I bet you got good teeth!"
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:09 am | #
COME ON DOVER, MOVE YOUR BLOOMIN' ARSE.....
YouTube - My Fair Lady - Ascot scene
Taking a swipe at the shifting response of the Treasury and Fed in addressing the financial crisis, he said: "When these gale-force winds hit our markets, there were panicked cries to change any and every rule of the marketplace: 'Let's try this. Let's try that.' What was needed was a steady hand."
So is Cox a hero now?
Will your 2009 earnings expectations account for trillions in Fed lending and Tarp bailing? Because they're putting a record amount of lipstick on 2008 numbers.
I'd rather make money. YMMV
I used to believe that about myself, too. But one day I realized the rush was more important than the money.
I think the error in your analysis is the assumption that the rush comes from a formula repitition of either positive or negative outcomes.
I think there's more of a rush in catching the transition point, intellectual puzzle-solving.
So is Cox a hero now?
He's a conservative Republican like Phil Graham. They will never admit even a tactical error in this crisis.
"I'll leave a cron job scheduled to weep for my puts."
--Eric
Sorry to hear that you have been replaced by a small Perl script.
Enjoy the cookies, and travel safely.
"Because they're putting a record amount of lipstick on 2008 numbers."
Greece is running out of tear gas and USA running out of...lipstick?
Sorry to hear that you have been replaced by a small Perl script.
sm_landlord | 12.24.08 - 9:33 am | #
Hey, it works for Nemo!!
I don't really weep that much..... I cashed in over 75% of my shorts back in November, at or near the lows. I have <5% of my money in March SPY 60s, half that much in HIG June 12.5s, and a small bear spread in Jan COF. The rest is cash, except for some March SPY 130 calls, which are currently bid at 0.00.
Those March 130 SPY calls will join my recently departed Dec 100 Calls...
(...I loved them for a while
Counterpointer:
The answer, at least following the meltdown of the Legalists and Confucians over 2000 years ago was that the latter prevailed... say what?
Not sure I buy that. Neither would my old Prof Theodore de Bary. Wish I could stay up with your Mandarin. Once had a good handle on it via Eastern Languages and Cultures at Columbia back in the early '80s but chucked after Jack Welch convinced me that China was "a shell game".
I'm sure you're aware it was rehabbed under Mao to undermine Confucianism.
Even Mao admitted he couldn't defeat the concept of jen (ren).
ps... my Vietnamese is far better these days... question is for me - how many ideograms can you draw? 1000 at least, Counterpointer?
it would also appear to me that the US is running out of Christian compassion or at least any real moral highground....
TickerForum Error - Unauthorized Request
Celebrating people who have killed themselves due to financial issues or financial fraud. I personally feel the edge of the world has just tilted to a darker place.
I used to be happy to be a bear, I think its just gone downhill.
I wouldn't want to be in commercial real estate for a couple of years. Hotels will be especially hard hit. Ouch!
Booked a room in Lafayette, La for Monday 12/28 going on business, at a Hampton Inn & Suites and it was $89 & change...this property is about 3 or 4 yrs old and I never was able to get in under $100...tale of the times & the oil patch is starting to soften.