For you, Byz, just in case you missed it from the last thread......
I shout this stuff from the sidelines, without a betting book. "Go big horse! Yeah, run like hell! I bet you got good teeth!" Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:09 am | #
The unemployment numbers are ugly and getting uglier. But the ugliest fact is that our present gov't admin has a long long history of dishonesty and the real unemployment numbers are probably much worse.
Bankster Swagpile
(Add currency risk to the Full Faith and Credit guaranteed bankster swagpile. - AM)
By Patricia Kuo
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg)
U.S. banks including Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley may sell government- guaranteed bonds in Asia next year, tapping growing demand for the region's local-currency debt to bolster their balance sheets.
U.S. financial institutions sold more than $100 billion of government-backed notes in dollars, euros and British pounds since Oct. 14, when the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. agreed to guarantee their bonds to help them cope with $678 billion of losses and writedowns amid the global credit crunch.
Banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman will have to tap Asian currencies because the potential supply is too big for dollars, euros and pounds to take on,'' said Arthur Lau, a fund manager at JF Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong, which oversees $128 billion.It's a perfect product for insurance companies in Asia. The bonds offer good yield pick-up, high credit ratings, good liquidity and no currency mismatch.''
U.S. banks may be forced to follow European and Australian banks, which lured fund managers to $6.6 billion of government- backed securities in Asia-Pacific since September with yields of as much as double those on sovereign debt, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Sales of FDIC-backed notes maturing in more than a year may reach $450 billion by the end of June, Barclays Capital analysts said on Dec. 9.
Citigroup's $3.75 billion of 2.875 percent FDIC-guaranteed bonds maturing in 2011 traded at 168 basis points above U.S. Treasuries today, Bank of America Corp. prices show. The notes were priced to yield 188.4 basis points more than government debt when sold on Dec. 2, according to Bloomberg data.
The traditional G3 market is stretched and would likely remain difficult for some time, while funds in the Asian domestic markets still have a lot of money that needs to be put to work,'' said Clifford Lee, head of fixed income at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.The setting is perfect for the Asian local- currency market to grow.
Even if PEBO is able to create 2 million jobs, how far down the rabbit hole are we already going to be? 2 million jobs by that time may just be a drop in the bucket.
OT - No nonsense here. I closed my DTO two days early, but wanted out of what I viewed as a relatively illiquid ETF after a very quick proft. Now, I identified an A-B=C-D pattern that projected to 28.69 on USO and it's almost there this a.m. I'll be buying a rejection of that price with a stop underneath the new low. Good risk/reward for a bounce, IMO.
<a href="http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/5218/usodaily081219jq4.png>Here's a chart I made of my USO projection last week, posted on a trading forum. I made an error in the text box to the left - it should read, "confirmed when 'B' point was broken".
One last comment. 28.69 is the 1 to 1 price projection of the A-B=C-D pattern. It can always do an extension - like a 1 to 1.382, a 1 to 1.50, a 1 to 1.618 etc. That's why I'm waiting for a rejection of price to gauge a stop level. Hope this is helpful.
I've talked to a handful of companies and it sounds like another round of job cuts in January are coming out here in SV. Should make for interesting Feb. NFP numbers.
Jobs, smobs, who needs 'em? I'm getting in on the TALF. That's the road to prosperity right there. I got a bunch of used, semi-operational appliances that I'm gonna pledge for a cool $2B. And if Santa brings me coal, as I strongly suspect he will, well, that's gotta be at least $100M icing on the cake.
This is going to be soooo kewl, I can hardly contain myself.
Yes, more jobs gone in SV early in the new year. Hubby should escape this round. He travels there so much (and always stays in the same hotel, more than 90 days last year). He got a holiday card last week signed by the hotel's entire staff!
I wouldn't be surprised if the rate of illegals coming into the country has turned negative. Over the last 3 or 4 years I would see about 10 - 20 % of the local Georgia Walmart customers as being Hispanic. In the last 6 months, maybe 1 or 2 %.
Last(Unrated) writes: I wouldn't be surprised if the rate of illegals coming into the country has turned negative. Over the last 3 or 4 years I would see about 10 - 20 % of the local Georgia Walmart customers as being Hispanic. In the last 6 months, maybe 1 or 2 %.
Yeah, and in a couple years, it'll be you shopping in their Walmarts, working day labor.
What is it from Liar's Poker, "That's some nice dogs you got there Queenie!" Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:38 am | #
Happen to have that book on my shelf right here:
"Her desire to be noticed was tangible. There are a number of ways to grab the attention of royalty in the presence of 800 silent agents of the Prudential, but probably the surest is to shout. THat's what she did. Specifically, she shouted "Hey Queen, Nice Dogs You Have There".
It's a great book. The guys who started the HF I used to work at were ex-Solly guys. I'm convinced after working with them that Lewis didn't make any of that stuff up.
It would be interesting to normalize the weekly claims in some other ways: by total population, by total employable, by total employed... something like that. Normalizing by total unemployment claims can hide the real severity if there are lots of people unemployed who aren't making claims -- which... there are.
Last writes:
"I wouldn't be surprised if the rate of illegals coming into the country has turned negative."
I wouldn't be surprised either. The number of illegals trying to flag down cars near the local masonry yard has fallen to almost zero. Twelve months ago, there would be 30 or 40 of them out there on a typical morning. Just one data point that I happen to drive by frequently. Those guys went somewhere, and I doubt that they would stay in a high cost area like this without work available.
Hysterian writes:
But the ugliest fact is that our present gov't admin has a long long history of dishonesty and the real unemployment numbers are probably much worse.
I wonder if Bush wonders why his pants are always on fire...
cnbc actually brought up the "real" unemployment numbers yesterday, Erin was very miffed...I was surprised they actually mentioned that the picture was much gloomier than than the "official" numbers suggested...
I remember 90/91 pretty clearly, and this recession is going to make that one look like a vacation in Bora Bora.
Our consumer spending strength over the last 20 years is largely an illusion it's been possible only with massive use of credit cards. When you have huge portions of the middle and upper classes paying ridiculous interest rates for basic consumer items they didn't have disposable cash to buy, things will collapse eventually.
Fair Economist(Unrated) writes: \tInteresting that the numbers are similar to 90-91, although this feels vastly worse. Fair Economist | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:48 am | #
i think that's because this one has yet to peak...it feels worse because we know it's just getting warmed up and we know its likely to get downright nasty in coming quarters.
comrade swan quotes Bloomberg:
U.S. banks including Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley may sell government- guaranteed bonds in Asia next year, tapping growing demand for the region's local-currency debt to bolster their balance sheets.
Aha, finally, albeit indirectly - the US Government started to borrow in foreign currencies. And yet another example of mind-boggling privatization - now it is raising of public debt by private banks.
Something I'm trying to work out: it's almost impossible to figure out a way to "pull together" in this developed "Anglo-Saxon Capitalism" of ours. Everything is cash based. It's not easy to help out neighbors (speaking theoretically right now-mine seem ok). People don't need a donation of goods - blankets, paper supplies, etc. Most have the small things, but need to keep the large ones - the homes, cars, health insurance. A gift of garden produce (leaving aside that it's winter) or of eggs - this barely exists any more in an urban/suburban existence of dispersed family members, where even services are part of the condo fee, and cars are basically un-repairable by ordinary folk. People need cash. I made a donation to my local food bank, and they told me cash was by far the most desirable type of donation.
Of course, as things worsen, the economy will begin to revert to an earlier form - labor is mobile in different ways (not whole families, but individual members), car rides may be critical, etc. etc. At this point though, cash is what is desired.
Also, I believe that the rules covering unemployment insurance (like the max length of coverage) are now much more strict than they were in the 70's and 80's, so any true comparison won't be easy
How many of you think it feels worse than 90/91 are actually unemployed (or under-employed)?
Sorry to be prickly, but what exactly does that mean? If you've got an internet connection and are spending your holiday opining on the markets, I'm not sure you have credibility.
Can we at least be honest? Most of us are doing just fine. We're managing our portfolios being long this or short that. I'm employed and rent so all is well for me.
That could change, of course, but none of us here are really hurting. If we were we'd be spending the $50 a month internet fee on food for our kids.
"I made a donation to my local food bank, and they told me cash was by far the most desirable type of donation."
--Sue (Capital S)
I don't know how to interpret this. People don't seem to need food. But they need cash for...? You're not going to get help with your mortgage payment at a food bank, right? I wonder what the food banks need the cash for? Distribution costs?
sm_landlord, what they told me is that they buy food at volume and non-profit discounts, and therefore cash goes further than food itself (I don't quite follow this either, as the food is completely free to them - I guess they figure they could be putting out more boxes of food with cash than with donated food). People do need food, though, food bank visits are soaring in New Jersey. But food is a smaller part of family budgets than formerly, so it doesn't have quite the impact that it used to. Cash will be the most popular gift this Christmas!
agree, maybe most of us are fine, but we aren't most of the country. it's a fact that unemployment is rising rapidly and families are making due with much less (maybe a good lesson to learn....we'll see). it'a a fact there will be a serious (and painful to some) period of adjustment as we move from a credit bubble of over-indebtedness to a life of more savings and less consumption. if we are commenting on the situation from a secure position doesn't lessen the severity of the situation of those deep in it. IMHO.
I will be between jobs after Dec 31. I've got a new one lined up but they are sorting out a spot for me. My current job offered to keep me on as a contractor for up to two months. So I was golden.
Just got an email that head corporate office high on its mountaintop in the land of fairy dust just cut my hours by half as a contractor. So its essentially enhanced unemployment I get to work for a couple days a week.
Dont feel too bad Windowdog, at least you get that. Hubby has been unemployed for three months now, before that he had been cut to part time for two months...The wolves are at my door and they are hungry...
Per Obama, don't be bitter there is always guns and religion to cling to.
Merry Christmas!
O magnum mysterium,
et admirabile sacramentum,
ut animalia viderent Dominum natum,
jacentem in praesepio!
Beata Virgo, cujus viscera
meruerunt portare
Dominum Christum.
Alleluia.
The man from nantucket got the macro picture right, but don't assume everyone commenting here (and especially everyone reading here) is sitting pretty and managing their portfolios, diminished or otherwise.
I've already said that I'm living in the middle of the meltdown, but I've spent many years in the desert and have grown accustomed to it. Personally, I prefer semi-retired to underemployed and, since I can still afford an internet connection, I guess that means I'm not hurting too badly.
But posters like 'rsj' (for example) are a real inspiration as they come here for knowledge and then work hard to better position themselves and their families for the future, whatever it may hold.
Not all of us opine about the markets, though we may all have opinions. For example, Paul, you statement about Obama at 10:29 is just asinine. That's my opinion.
As Milton Friedman would say: Millions of individual entrepreneurs have been set free by the invisible hand of the market to pursue their economic destinies. It's all good.
"The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in 1996 claimed that there was enough food in ware-house storage to last every man, woman and child in the cities a 3 day supply and a 5 day supply for every man, woman, and child in the countryside, should a great national emergency occur. When the supply dropped to less than 1-day's supply per person, then the USDA started to measure in individual pounds as to how much food was in the food-chain per person in the United States as per 300 million people.
In 2003, there were 77-pounds of food per person in the warehouse food-chain in the United States.
By September of 2005, there was only 15.7 pounds of reserved foodstuffs in the food-chain for every man, woman, and child in the United States. (per the USDA Crop Production Report of 9/12/05, by Alan Guebert of the Farm & Food Report.) Of the 15.7 pounds of warehoused reserved food-stuffs, 11.0 pounds of the 15.7 pounds consists of unprocessed wheat. The rest of the 15.7 pounds of survival foods in storage (totaling 4.7 pounds), consists of the following foods: Non-fat dry milk, cheese, corn by the bushel, peanuts by the pound, lentils by the pound. This is what the District of Columbia has set aside representing the 15.7 pounds in the survival food-chain for every man, woman, and child to stay alive on. This is not a daily supply, this amount represents the total food everyone will get."
(This is an excerpt I saved from a couple years ago, I have no idea of the source)
.....don't let the vast supply of food give you a false sense of security. As in many more recent catastrophes, many stores will close and the open store shelves will empty out before this episode comes to a conclusion. I hope I'm considered a "nut-case" for these views a decade from now.
Food shortage theorists focus too much on the stats and not enough on the actual facts on the ground.
There are huge swaths of former farmland in the northeast and southwest that have gone fallow in the last generation b/c the midwest just kicked their ass economically. There is a good amount of slack in the system if things go south.
Black Star Ranch writes: ...excerpt I saved from a couple years ago,
Great post!
It defies imagination and I guess Hur. Katrina is a preview of how well the emergency planning will play out.. now i understand why people are loading up on guns and ammo..
Windowdog(Unrated) writes: Food shortage theorists focus too much on the stats and not enough on the actual facts on the ground.
It isn't the change, it's the change over time.
Bring that stuff back into tillage, in conditions of extreme hunger and decapitalization?
With what, a central resource allocation and rationing system that hasn't been set up, according to a five year plan prepared by our current government?
The problem is not agriculturally viable hectares per capita.
Seasons Greetings and all that, but you're being presumptuous.
B.A. Yale here, 15 years + in a moribund craft (print journalism). Retraining at age 45 isn't easy, and getting interviews is difficult. Meanwhile I'm living on a shoestring -and of course, counting my blessings.
Paul, BTW, I'm in Manhattan visiting friends. And I'm shocked by how few shopping bags and obvious wrapped gifts I've noticed over the past couple of days, while riding the subways and strolling the Macy's-Lord & Taylor-Saks slice of midtown.
Interesting that the numbers are similar to 90-91, although this feels vastly worse. Fair Economist | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:48 am | #
Depends on where you are - I'd say it doesn't feel anywhere near as ugly - so far - as compared to 90-91. That's from a non-automotive Midwestern perspective NOT coastal east, west or south.
Well, that settles that. I'm going to put in one heck of a big garden this year, get dad's and grandad's old crocks out, and cure some meat. Should be fun. Practice for madmax should things get haywire.
January job loss is what I'll be looking at to determine whether I go into the bunker or just keep my head down while going about. I see mixed messages as to how bad it will be. My wife's place of employment had a dismal Fall order season but Spring bookings are doing much better. On the other hand some of the accounts I call on (some lawn & garden equip tier one suppliers) are telling me Spring looks like a complete disaster - no sell through expected at all from what early forecasting is suggesting. We all know what is happening at automotive, housing finance, etc.
I expect to see the real blow out in job losses come in white collar mid-mgmt positions - completely expendable in the 'short run'. Many firms will learn they are expendable in the long term too - and not rehire them ever. That is what the 'productivity revolution' did to blue collar. It will now move deeper into the offices and retail channels.
It literally amazes me that so little is being said about the Bush Administration's stillborn dictatorship as their cronies bleed out the nation's carcass. Oh I get it, people are waiting to start their howling anger until Obama gets on board.
It's worked before, this willfully ignorant game-playing, but this time it is just giving the crime syndicate time to tie us hostages down. So when the Cons spew, understand they are daring the rest of us to join in a faith-based swan dive into an empty pool. They mean no good.
Like this Paul character who has to quickly tell everyone that since he is okay, everyone else needs to just calm down and quit being so whiny. Classic CONservative mindset.
Or these drippings from Paul: "Per Obama, don't be bitter there is always guns and religion to cling to." A misdirection of blame using a misquoted passage wrapped around a sneering insult ... a CON Special!"
It's easy to spot the Cons these days, they are more concerned with their fantasies about Obama than the reality of our actual current President serving in office right now. Conservatism is an weird and expensive indulgence, something like autoerotic asphyxiation. Sometimes you don't pull back quick enough and your country dies. The Pauls of the nation are trying to keep the tourniquet on just a biiiit longer.
JR: I hear ya, but I suggest getting over it. I conclude that Bush & Co. will get away with everything, as many of us focus purely on survival. Don't worry: he'll get his in the history books.
"American has little slack - most people don't seem to realize that at all."
Good point. As in the potato example, most fruits and vegetables are not able to be grown from seeds of fruits/veggies found in the stores. This is what leads me to believe that unless most people here in the US start thinking about what THEY have to do to feed their own family, we're in for a rude and shocking experience.
And here is another small problem - most American potatoes, unlike most German ones, are sprayed to retard sprouting. Which means that unlike me, you can't actually plant potatoes.
Funny, I've had no problem growing the supermarket spuds here in MA, including this year. Retard doesn't mean prevent forever. Seed ones seem somewhat better, but supers will do in a pinch. Good crop this year, but mostly reds (Chieftan, Norland) as I was late to the Agway. Only whites were the supermarket mongrels. Aiming for equal parts of Yukon Gold, one red, one white (Kennebec or Katahdin), plus a russet, for next year.
January will be ugly.
OH, and first
Now that christmas sales are over, the retail sector is going to shed a ton of workers. This thing isn't even close to peaking yet.
Merry hristmas!
The Vicious Cycle is becoming more vicious.
For you, Byz, just in case you missed it from the last thread......
I shout this stuff from the sidelines, without a betting book. "Go big horse! Yeah, run like hell! I bet you got good teeth!"
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:09 am | #
COME ON DOVER, MOVE YOUR BLOOMIN' ARSE.....
YouTube - My Fair Lady - Ascot scene
Ugly. Very Ugly.
Wow, we still have quite a way to go.
Reminder how early we are in the "real economy" side of this bust.
The unemployment numbers are ugly and getting uglier. But the ugliest fact is that our present gov't admin has a long long history of dishonesty and the real unemployment numbers are probably much worse.
OT
Bankster Swagpile
(Add currency risk to the Full Faith and Credit guaranteed bankster swagpile. - AM)
By Patricia Kuo
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg)
U.S. banks including Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley may sell government- guaranteed bonds in Asia next year, tapping growing demand for the region's local-currency debt to bolster their balance sheets.
U.S. financial institutions sold more than $100 billion of government-backed notes in dollars, euros and British pounds since Oct. 14, when the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. agreed to guarantee their bonds to help them cope with $678 billion of losses and writedowns amid the global credit crunch.
Banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman will have to tap Asian currencies because the potential supply is too big for dollars, euros and pounds to take on,'' said Arthur Lau, a fund manager at JF Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong, which oversees $128 billion.It's a perfect product for insurance companies in Asia. The bonds offer good yield pick-up, high credit ratings, good liquidity and no currency mismatch.''
U.S. banks may be forced to follow European and Australian banks, which lured fund managers to $6.6 billion of government- backed securities in Asia-Pacific since September with yields of as much as double those on sovereign debt, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Sales of FDIC-backed notes maturing in more than a year may reach $450 billion by the end of June, Barclays Capital analysts said on Dec. 9.
Citigroup's $3.75 billion of 2.875 percent FDIC-guaranteed bonds maturing in 2011 traded at 168 basis points above U.S. Treasuries today, Bank of America Corp. prices show. The notes were priced to yield 188.4 basis points more than government debt when sold on Dec. 2, according to Bloomberg data.
The traditional G3 market is stretched and would likely remain difficult for some time, while funds in the Asian domestic markets still have a lot of money that needs to be put to work,'' said Clifford Lee, head of fixed income at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.The setting is perfect for the Asian local- currency market to grow.
Even if PEBO is able to create 2 million jobs, how far down the rabbit hole are we already going to be? 2 million jobs by that time may just be a drop in the bucket.
OT - No nonsense here. I closed my DTO two days early, but wanted out of what I viewed as a relatively illiquid ETF after a very quick proft. Now, I identified an A-B=C-D pattern that projected to 28.69 on USO and it's almost there this a.m. I'll be buying a rejection of that price with a stop underneath the new low. Good risk/reward for a bounce, IMO.
<a href="http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/5218/usodaily081219jq4.png>Here's a chart I made of my USO projection last week, posted on a trading forum. I made an error in the text box to the left - it should read, "confirmed when 'B' point was broken".
One last comment. 28.69 is the 1 to 1 price projection of the A-B=C-D pattern. It can always do an extension - like a 1 to 1.382, a 1 to 1.50, a 1 to 1.618 etc. That's why I'm waiting for a rejection of price to gauge a stop level. Hope this is helpful.
I've talked to a handful of companies and it sounds like another round of job cuts in January are coming out here in SV. Should make for interesting Feb. NFP numbers.
Merry Christmas CR and commentariat
Tanta vive!
Jobs, smobs, who needs 'em? I'm getting in on the TALF. That's the road to prosperity right there. I got a bunch of used, semi-operational appliances that I'm gonna pledge for a cool $2B. And if Santa brings me coal, as I strongly suspect he will, well, that's gotta be at least $100M icing on the cake.
This is going to be soooo kewl, I can hardly contain myself.
Nostrovia,
Yes, more jobs gone in SV early in the new year. Hubby should escape this round. He travels there so much (and always stays in the same hotel, more than 90 days last year). He got a holiday card last week signed by the hotel's entire staff!
How long until Mexico has to worry about our illegals?
Eric(Excellent) writes:
For you, Byz, just in case you missed it from the last thread......
What is it from Liar's Poker, "That's some nice dogs you got there Queenie!"
I've been doing my part. I haven't worked in 9 years and still spend!
I wouldn't be surprised if the rate of illegals coming into the country has turned negative. Over the last 3 or 4 years I would see about 10 - 20 % of the local Georgia Walmart customers as being Hispanic. In the last 6 months, maybe 1 or 2 %.
A carol for the time:
The Richter Scales: Blog
Last(Unrated) writes:
I wouldn't be surprised if the rate of illegals coming into the country has turned negative. Over the last 3 or 4 years I would see about 10 - 20 % of the local Georgia Walmart customers as being Hispanic. In the last 6 months, maybe 1 or 2 %.
Yeah, and in a couple years, it'll be you shopping in their Walmarts, working day labor.
...and CNBC has called the bottom no less than 500 times this morning...
What is it from Liar's Poker, "That's some nice dogs you got there Queenie!"
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:38 am | #
Happen to have that book on my shelf right here:
"Her desire to be noticed was tangible. There are a number of ways to grab the attention of royalty in the presence of 800 silent agents of the Prudential, but probably the surest is to shout. THat's what she did. Specifically, she shouted "Hey Queen, Nice Dogs You Have There".
It's a great book. The guys who started the HF I used to work at were ex-Solly guys. I'm convinced after working with them that Lewis didn't make any of that stuff up.
It would be interesting to normalize the weekly claims in some other ways: by total population, by total employable, by total employed... something like that. Normalizing by total unemployment claims can hide the real severity if there are lots of people unemployed who aren't making claims -- which... there are.
Last writes:
"I wouldn't be surprised if the rate of illegals coming into the country has turned negative."
I wouldn't be surprised either. The number of illegals trying to flag down cars near the local masonry yard has fallen to almost zero. Twelve months ago, there would be 30 or 40 of them out there on a typical morning. Just one data point that I happen to drive by frequently. Those guys went somewhere, and I doubt that they would stay in a high cost area like this without work available.
26 year high?
That's not so bad. 26 years ago it was "morning in America."
Interesting that the numbers are similar to 90-91, although this feels vastly worse.
It looks like the numbers are stuck in the 500s forever.
I would like to know how the U6 numbers compare to past recessions...we are close to 12 million unemployed based on the u6
Hysterian writes:
But the ugliest fact is that our present gov't admin has a long long history of dishonesty and the real unemployment numbers are probably much worse.
I wonder if Bush wonders why his pants are always on fire...
I'll second the U6 request.
cnbc actually brought up the "real" unemployment numbers yesterday, Erin was very miffed...I was surprised they actually mentioned that the picture was much gloomier than than the "official" numbers suggested...
I remember 90/91 pretty clearly, and this recession is going to make that one look like a vacation in Bora Bora.
Our consumer spending strength over the last 20 years is largely an illusion it's been possible only with massive use of credit cards. When you have huge portions of the middle and upper classes paying ridiculous interest rates for basic consumer items they didn't have disposable cash to buy, things will collapse eventually.
Fair Economist(Unrated) writes:
\tInteresting that the numbers are similar to 90-91, although this feels vastly worse.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:48 am | #
i think that's because this one has yet to peak...it feels worse because we know it's just getting warmed up and we know its likely to get downright nasty in coming quarters.
comrade swan quotes Bloomberg:
U.S. banks including Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley may sell government- guaranteed bonds in Asia next year, tapping growing demand for the region's local-currency debt to bolster their balance sheets.
Aha, finally, albeit indirectly - the US Government started to borrow in foreign currencies. And yet another example of mind-boggling privatization - now it is raising of public debt by private banks.
Something I'm trying to work out: it's almost impossible to figure out a way to "pull together" in this developed "Anglo-Saxon Capitalism" of ours. Everything is cash based. It's not easy to help out neighbors (speaking theoretically right now-mine seem ok). People don't need a donation of goods - blankets, paper supplies, etc. Most have the small things, but need to keep the large ones - the homes, cars, health insurance. A gift of garden produce (leaving aside that it's winter) or of eggs - this barely exists any more in an urban/suburban existence of dispersed family members, where even services are part of the condo fee, and cars are basically un-repairable by ordinary folk. People need cash. I made a donation to my local food bank, and they told me cash was by far the most desirable type of donation.
Of course, as things worsen, the economy will begin to revert to an earlier form - labor is mobile in different ways (not whole families, but individual members), car rides may be critical, etc. etc. At this point though, cash is what is desired.
BLS web site data does not go back beyond 1994.
Also, I believe that the rules covering unemployment insurance (like the max length of coverage) are now much more strict than they were in the 70's and 80's, so any true comparison won't be easy
How many of you think it feels worse than 90/91 are actually unemployed (or under-employed)?
Sorry to be prickly, but what exactly does that mean? If you've got an internet connection and are spending your holiday opining on the markets, I'm not sure you have credibility.
Can we at least be honest? Most of us are doing just fine. We're managing our portfolios being long this or short that. I'm employed and rent so all is well for me.
That could change, of course, but none of us here are really hurting. If we were we'd be spending the $50 a month internet fee on food for our kids.
"I made a donation to my local food bank, and they told me cash was by far the most desirable type of donation."
--Sue (Capital S)
I don't know how to interpret this. People don't seem to need food. But they need cash for...? You're not going to get help with your mortgage payment at a food bank, right? I wonder what the food banks need the cash for? Distribution costs?
sm_landlord, what they told me is that they buy food at volume and non-profit discounts, and therefore cash goes further than food itself (I don't quite follow this either, as the food is completely free to them - I guess they figure they could be putting out more boxes of food with cash than with donated food). People do need food, though, food bank visits are soaring in New Jersey. But food is a smaller part of family budgets than formerly, so it doesn't have quite the impact that it used to. Cash will be the most popular gift this Christmas!
Paul,
agree, maybe most of us are fine, but we aren't most of the country. it's a fact that unemployment is rising rapidly and families are making due with much less (maybe a good lesson to learn....we'll see). it'a a fact there will be a serious (and painful to some) period of adjustment as we move from a credit bubble of over-indebtedness to a life of more savings and less consumption. if we are commenting on the situation from a secure position doesn't lessen the severity of the situation of those deep in it. IMHO.
misean, glad to see you back.
I will be between jobs after Dec 31. I've got a new one lined up but they are sorting out a spot for me. My current job offered to keep me on as a contractor for up to two months. So I was golden.
Just got an email that head corporate office high on its mountaintop in the land of fairy dust just cut my hours by half as a contractor. So its essentially enhanced unemployment I get to work for a couple days a week.
Merry f-ing xmas.
Dont feel too bad Windowdog, at least you get that. Hubby has been unemployed for three months now, before that he had been cut to part time for two months...The wolves are at my door and they are hungry...
Too Comrade Kristina and Windowdog.
Per Obama, don't be bitter there is always guns and religion to cling to.
Merry Christmas!
O magnum mysterium,
et admirabile sacramentum,
ut animalia viderent Dominum natum,
jacentem in praesepio!
Beata Virgo, cujus viscera
meruerunt portare
Dominum Christum.
Alleluia.
Paul,
The man from nantucket got the macro picture right, but don't assume everyone commenting here (and especially everyone reading here) is sitting pretty and managing their portfolios, diminished or otherwise.
I've already said that I'm living in the middle of the meltdown, but I've spent many years in the desert and have grown accustomed to it. Personally, I prefer semi-retired to underemployed and, since I can still afford an internet connection, I guess that means I'm not hurting too badly.
But posters like 'rsj' (for example) are a real inspiration as they come here for knowledge and then work hard to better position themselves and their families for the future, whatever it may hold.
Not all of us opine about the markets, though we may all have opinions. For example, Paul, you statement about Obama at 10:29 is just asinine. That's my opinion.
As Milton Friedman would say: Millions of individual entrepreneurs have been set free by the invisible hand of the market to pursue their economic destinies. It's all good.
What's up with gold today? A steady stampedo up happening.
24 Hour Gold Chart - Last 3 Days
Thank you CR commenters. Thanks a bunch for all the insight, especially CR, mp, rich, Rob Dawg.
You guys/gals should be with your families today. Tomorrow is another day.
Off.
....."People don't seem to need food."....
"The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in 1996 claimed that there was enough food in ware-house storage to last every man, woman and child in the cities a 3 day supply and a 5 day supply for every man, woman, and child in the countryside, should a great national emergency occur. When the supply dropped to less than 1-day's supply per person, then the USDA started to measure in individual pounds as to how much food was in the food-chain per person in the United States as per 300 million people.
In 2003, there were 77-pounds of food per person in the warehouse food-chain in the United States.
By September of 2005, there was only 15.7 pounds of reserved foodstuffs in the food-chain for every man, woman, and child in the United States. (per the USDA Crop Production Report of 9/12/05, by Alan Guebert of the Farm & Food Report.) Of the 15.7 pounds of warehoused reserved food-stuffs, 11.0 pounds of the 15.7 pounds consists of unprocessed wheat. The rest of the 15.7 pounds of survival foods in storage (totaling 4.7 pounds), consists of the following foods: Non-fat dry milk, cheese, corn by the bushel, peanuts by the pound, lentils by the pound. This is what the District of Columbia has set aside representing the 15.7 pounds in the survival food-chain for every man, woman, and child to stay alive on. This is not a daily supply, this amount represents the total food everyone will get."
(This is an excerpt I saved from a couple years ago, I have no idea of the source)
.....don't let the vast supply of food give you a false sense of security. As in many more recent catastrophes, many stores will close and the open store shelves will empty out before this episode comes to a conclusion. I hope I'm considered a "nut-case" for these views a decade from now.
Black Star Ranch writes:
.... This is not a daily supply, this amount represents the total food everyone will get."
Back during the Depression, we used to make a soup with the carcass of a rat and leaves from a rose bush.
If you add enough salt, the taste isn't bad.
Food shortage theorists focus too much on the stats and not enough on the actual facts on the ground.
There are huge swaths of former farmland in the northeast and southwest that have gone fallow in the last generation b/c the midwest just kicked their ass economically. There is a good amount of slack in the system if things go south.
And no most of it was not turned into housing.
Black Star Ranch writes: ...excerpt I saved from a couple years ago,
Great post!
It defies imagination and I guess Hur. Katrina is a preview of how well the emergency planning will play out.. now i understand why people are loading up on guns and ammo..
Windowdog(Unrated) writes:
Food shortage theorists focus too much on the stats and not enough on the actual facts on the ground.
It isn't the change, it's the change over time.
Bring that stuff back into tillage, in conditions of extreme hunger and decapitalization?
With what, a central resource allocation and rationing system that hasn't been set up, according to a five year plan prepared by our current government?
The problem is not agriculturally viable hectares per capita.
Paul @10:00 am
Seasons Greetings and all that, but you're being presumptuous.
B.A. Yale here, 15 years + in a moribund craft (print journalism). Retraining at age 45 isn't easy, and getting interviews is difficult. Meanwhile I'm living on a shoestring -and of course, counting my blessings.
......the only remedy is of a more local nature:
"foodstuffs are better utilized when grown locally on a wider scale."
Paul, BTW, I'm in Manhattan visiting friends. And I'm shocked by how few shopping bags and obvious wrapped gifts I've noticed over the past couple of days, while riding the subways and strolling the Macy's-Lord & Taylor-Saks slice of midtown.
Wow, we still have quite a way to go.
Reminder how early we are in the "real economy" side of this bust.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:26 am | #
Yup.
freddy's half-dead,
By all means count your blessings because things could be a whole helluva lot worse than they are today.
If you think it's tough at 45, try it again when pushing 60.
Interesting that the numbers are similar to 90-91, although this feels vastly worse.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 12.24.08 - 9:48 am | #
Depends on where you are - I'd say it doesn't feel anywhere near as ugly - so far - as compared to 90-91. That's from a non-automotive Midwestern perspective NOT coastal east, west or south.
Well, that settles that. I'm going to put in one heck of a big garden this year, get dad's and grandad's old crocks out, and cure some meat. Should be fun. Practice for madmax should things get haywire.
January job loss is what I'll be looking at to determine whether I go into the bunker or just keep my head down while going about. I see mixed messages as to how bad it will be. My wife's place of employment had a dismal Fall order season but Spring bookings are doing much better. On the other hand some of the accounts I call on (some lawn & garden equip tier one suppliers) are telling me Spring looks like a complete disaster - no sell through expected at all from what early forecasting is suggesting. We all know what is happening at automotive, housing finance, etc.
I expect to see the real blow out in job losses come in white collar mid-mgmt positions - completely expendable in the 'short run'. Many firms will learn they are expendable in the long term too - and not rehire them ever. That is what the 'productivity revolution' did to blue collar. It will now move deeper into the offices and retail channels.
It literally amazes me that so little is being said about the Bush Administration's stillborn dictatorship as their cronies bleed out the nation's carcass. Oh I get it, people are waiting to start their howling anger until Obama gets on board.
It's worked before, this willfully ignorant game-playing, but this time it is just giving the crime syndicate time to tie us hostages down. So when the Cons spew, understand they are daring the rest of us to join in a faith-based swan dive into an empty pool. They mean no good.
Like this Paul character who has to quickly tell everyone that since he is okay, everyone else needs to just calm down and quit being so whiny. Classic CONservative mindset.
Or these drippings from Paul: "Per Obama, don't be bitter there is always guns and religion to cling to." A misdirection of blame using a misquoted passage wrapped around a sneering insult ... a CON Special!"
It's easy to spot the Cons these days, they are more concerned with their fantasies about Obama than the reality of our actual current President serving in office right now. Conservatism is an weird and expensive indulgence, something like autoerotic asphyxiation. Sometimes you don't pull back quick enough and your country dies. The Pauls of the nation are trying to keep the tourniquet on just a biiiit longer.
sportsfan: gotcha. All the best to you in 2009.
JR: I hear ya, but I suggest getting over it. I conclude that Bush & Co. will get away with everything, as many of us focus purely on survival. Don't worry: he'll get his in the history books.
dryfly writes:
January job loss is what I'll be looking at to determine whether I go into the bunker or just keep my head down while going about.
Second that. Jan-Feb unemployment is key
"American has little slack - most people don't seem to realize that at all."
Good point. As in the potato example, most fruits and vegetables are not able to be grown from seeds of fruits/veggies found in the stores. This is what leads me to believe that unless most people here in the US start thinking about what THEY have to do to feed their own family, we're in for a rude and shocking experience.
In 2009 unemployment will exceed 10% and that will be a wake up call for the U.S. I hope Obama is ready for that!
And here is another small problem - most American potatoes, unlike most German ones, are sprayed to retard sprouting. Which means that unlike me, you can't actually plant potatoes.
Funny, I've had no problem growing the supermarket spuds here in MA, including this year. Retard doesn't mean prevent forever. Seed ones seem somewhat better, but supers will do in a pinch. Good crop this year, but mostly reds (Chieftan, Norland) as I was late to the Agway. Only whites were the supermarket mongrels. Aiming for equal parts of Yukon Gold, one red, one white (Kennebec or Katahdin), plus a russet, for next year.