Anonymous writes:
'Mikuni said. Treasury yields, which are near record lows, may fall further without debt relief, making it difficult for the U.S. to borrow elsewhere, Mikuni said.'
Why would Treasury yields fall further w/o debt relief? If there is no debt relief, wouldn't Treasuries becom less attractive and cause yields to rise?
Anonymous
"Anyone who asserts knowledge of such things in any communication, written or otherwise, is creating an Internet Urban Legend." - Tanta
She says that as if it is a bad thing. Whole social tapestries are woven from less. Pr0n, glod, eaten by a grue, first, don't eat the pudding.
Tanta may be gone but her spirit lives. And the mythos must grow. Mortimer and Mortica (w/lipstick) Mortgage Pig are bigger than any one of us.
OT - Many of our betters, the Paul Krugmans and James Hamiltons, are calling for the FED to target an annual inflation rate around +2/3%. Now that the FF has reached the floor, the Temple Masters are looking at unconventional means to induce nominal GDP higher, e.g. buying securities they deem artificially low.
Here's an idea: why don't they buy near term futures contracts on commodities such as oil, copper, lumber, and platinum? One further, why don't they buy S&P500 contracts in the trillions? That would reverse the negative wealth effect, encouraging the masses to save less because the FED is saving for them.
This isn't likely to happen, nor is the threat of a "unilateral devaluation of the U.S. dollar" I read about all over the Web by glod worshipers. Were the FED to literally begin attempting to set prices in commodities and equities, broad confidence would be further eroded, esp. between securities' prices and their fundamental values. Markets would likely lock-up and participants refuse to buy or sell anything, sending the economy into a tailspin.
The FED is impotent. All they can do now is further erode confidence. And the Treasuries attempts to artificially prop up house prices will only stretch out the U.S. economy's lost decade. A dark future of misery lies ahead for the majority of the U.S. and world's population.
Wow. Amazing gift from Tanta ... from my family, I only got a tie! And oddly enough, I dreamt last night about talking to a dear departed friend of mine. Ghosts of Christmases will do that to you. Merry Solstice, everyone!
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse
"This isn't likely to happen, nor is the threat of a "unilateral devaluation of the U.S. dollar" I read about all over the Web by glod worshipers."
Don't disagree, but how does this square with your recent conversion to long oil? You're expecting demand to reverse? Or do you simply see short term trading opportunity over current lows?
Re: "Canon, in terms of a fictional universe, is any material that is considered to be "genuine", or can be directly referenced as material produced by the original author or creator of a series."
"China has said it is to allow some trade with its neighbours to be settled with its currency, the yuan."
...
"Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan was quoted by the South China Morning Post as saying: "The US dollar is unlikely to be stable next year and later."
Rn is the prototypical example of a real n-dimensional vector space. In fact, every real n-dimensional vector space V is isomorphic to Rn. This isomorphism is not canonical, however. A choice of isomorphism is equivalent to a choice of basis for V (by looking at the image of the standard basis for Rn in V). The reason for working with arbitrary vector spaces instead of Rn is that it is often preferable to work in a coordinate-free manner (that is, without choosing a preferred basis).
In mathematics, the Kronecker delta or Kronecker's delta, named after Leopold Kronecker (1823-1891), is a function of two variables, usually integers, which is 1 if they are equal, and 0 otherwise
For once, I looked closely at my mother's face as she spoke; the deep age lines etched into her forehead and perpetual frown; her snow-white hair.
It all runs in channels. The nearer you are to the destination, the less variance this is, the less manipulation is possible. Further away, you can tweak the memes but the effect is moderated and less predictable. And as I read the latest theories on the Long Tail, the counter-acting forces of homogenuity are confirmed so maybe it doesn't matter.
Maybe it's all an illusion.
Equations of ZiRP? That's part of the puzzle. Equations and numbers, trillions of dollars and I wonder what, really, is "value"?
A maserati? It has value through rarity but it would have far less value in a world of expensive gas.
The concept of value is thoroughly trashed now. Is it a temporary function of false money or a permanent function of pervasive, costless information?
Costless. On Digg, I see the memes have finally percolated down to virtually free tracking -
I'll play around with it today. Combine it with the Facebook invasion strategy, toss into some exotic bots and the Internet itself, as it is right now, has no value, a paradox turned back into itself like a Klein bottle.
I finally got some time off...
Here is a quote for the person you emailed me about...Straight from the Ft Meyers MLS.
"I CURRENTLY HAVE 23 LISTINGS IN VILLAGE CREEK WITH ANOTHER 70 AVAILABLE WHICH ARE CURRENTLY NOT ON THE MLS. THESE ARE SHORT SALES SUBJECT TO EXISTING LENDER'S APPROVAL. LENDER IS AWARE OF PRICING. PLEASE CALL FOR SHOWING"
Brother just got word this week his job is history. He's a city engineer working for a CA municipality, on contract. Contract terminated and his services no longer needed by the agency.
I have 3 close friends out of work and now my brother. Anyone's job can be wiped out in 2009. Keep your fingers crossed. Mine are. Good luck to all.
Well the momster feels amazingly well for what she went through. She tried
to punch the lady in the nose, before playing dead!!
The house wasn't ransacked, one small tv taken, no bigger, her bigger new tv wasn't & they didn't even go through her jewelry stuff, tho most is costume jewelry. Other electronic stuff not taken.
Anyway, while going thru this pile of stuff--that it turns out she had gotten out, not the thief, it showed she had bought an annuity from Gladstone. Not too much. But is this one of the fund of funds that invested in Madoff?
Haven't mentioned this to her. Thanks for any info. Will repost tomorrow.
Hey, the Feds can print money that they pay you. Can not say that for local and state govs.
For you 1099 ers, the Feds pay vacations, pensions, sick leave, etc. All those things that you left when you went independent. Positive, you do not have to pay both portions of the SS taxes...
Well, just trying to offer some how on the holidays...
bearly writes:
Jim Rogers shorting the long bond... Bloomberg.com avp...pZqGFXZTDlM.asf
bearly |
I researched that this morning. He was but isn't anymore. He jumped in a couple months ago, got burned then got out. Said he'll short again but not sure when.
To the Fed, Government Sachs and the connected Hedgie Mafia, a passing Christmas carol.
Motörhead - Doctor Rock
All right, all right
I hope you son of bitches see the light
You again, you again
I know you've got a mental age of ten
Listen up, listen up
I wouldn't swap you for a thousand bucks
Come on, you're the one
I think I'm going to switch your lazer on
Chorus
I've got the medicine you need
I've got the power, I've got the speed
I'll find out how to stop your clock
We sure ain't talking Doctor Spock
Hear me talking, Doctor Rock.
Lay down, turn around
Here come the sister gonna strip you down
Shut up, breathe in
Lets have the address of your next of kin
Chin up, shoulders back
You've got a body like a Marshall stack
Keep still, take your pill
Or I'm gonna make you really ill.
Chorus
Next please, next please
Try to separate those cowardly knees
X-ray, you've gotta pay
The only chance you've ever got of getting away
Here we are, what's the scar
I don't like anything I've seen so far
Pay me, pay me
I ain't no doctor of philosophy
I was under the belif that most posters/readers of this site felt that the future is not positive and that they can not be totally dependent on the government to come to the rescue...
Like Katrina, everyone must prepare what they anticipate will be an unmitigated disaster...
Ahhh, number of visitors dropping off and Liz is bored. No place to eat even. Didn't want to tire my mom out too much.
Son is at hotel's gym. After tomorrow am, I really will be offline until I leave mom's house. Unless I find an internet cafe'. Maybe I will go to gym and walk on treadmill.
The hub in Fla has nothing to do and hence is reorganizing the pantry. He is bewildered at the number of cans I have stashed away. lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 5:39 pm | #
Be careful of cans that bulge at the top and botton so they don't stand flat on the shelf.
Glad to year your Mom is doing well Lawyerliz, that's great news. Sounds like she's a tough gal. We're busy chowing down Glazed Ham and Pineapple Stuffing right now,...
The dollar failing as the reserve currency doesn't need a G20 agreement. The ramifications if this takes hold is tremendous for the US. Dollardone | 12.25.08 - 3:03 pm | #
Best news I've heard in months if not YEARS. Get the yuan trading unpegged to the dollar and alot of the worst of the imbalances go away. That is truly a reason to be thankful this season - it would mark the beginning of the great 'dig out'.
Lawyerliz- Best to your mom. Years ago someone raided my grandmother's house when my aunt and uncle were gone, they took her jewelry, but left her alone thank god.
Agree that it's going to be rough as far as employment for most everybody. But rather than dwell on the probablility, hope that everyone decides on a plan of action for dealing with how they're going to feel about it or cope with it, if it happens.
Elvis, it's delicious. I found the recipe on the internet. It goes really well with ham and it's also great as a dessert. Basically like a pineapple bread pudding...
I have 3 close friends out of work and now my brother. Anyone's job can be wiped out in 2009. Keep your fingers crossed. Mine are. Good luck to all. bearly | 12.25.08 - 4:24 pm | #
I'm already wondering how I can fit my son, his SO & their son in my basement. He's likely to be laid off this month even though he doesn't think so. Retail. I don't argue with him - just plan what comes next - that's what 'elders' are supposed to do. The lectures are way in the past - wasted air. Now it its time to be the 'adults'.
Wow - never thought it would come to this but it probably has.
My daughter has had maybe 2-3 weeks of unemployment in her 16 post school years. She's very techy. An excellent architect, but hard to live with. Hope the Minnesotans will want to build the project.
My architect daughter is really worried about being laid off.
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 5:30 pm | #
My future son-in-law was RIFed last month - arch firm he worked for just imploded. Two senior partners decided to retire and the 'merged' with another 'residential' focused firm - my SIL's firm did CRE & though it hasn't been dead as long as RRE it's as dead now. He's early 20s - plenty of time to restart the career later.
Don't know what it is, but it is in Minnesota. lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 5:46 pm | #
Roh roh. That is where my SIL is now - with us... not one opening on the AIA-MN website [no local work]. If the locals are starving the 'outsiders' will be too - soon.
"China has said it is to allow some trade with its neighbours to be settled with its currency, the yuan." Dollardone | 12.25.08 - 3:03 pm | #
I believe that this is a forced adjustment for China. With currency volatility at present levels it is far too expensive if not almost impossible to do currency hedging. With China so dependent on foreign trade what options do they have but deal in their own currency?
However, the implications might still be profound. But as there are more and more backroom rumors of capital flight from China, it might actually lead to the surprising result that the Yuan might devalue vs. the dollar on a fundamental level.
------------------------- Here is my favorite classical progressive rock band from Holland and a real exception at the time: Ekseption Peace Planet
Wow - never thought it would come to this but it probably has.
dryfly | 12.25.08 - 6:00 pm | #
Was talking to my BIL (I'm in SLC for a white Christmas) who works for little company formed by Micron and Intel, and couldn't think of any reason the coming year should be better. Time to start potato farming with a vengeance?
He's very smart, but can only think of one thing at a time. I tried explaining to him how I like to have conversations with a buncha youse guys all at once, and he said, and you can keep track of them? And I said, welll, yeah. And text my son and girlfriend inbetween.
Yet his IQ is way higher, and I could never do Fourier analysis, or read books of equations, like he did when studing for his Phd orals. And he sez he's not any good at math.
I'm sure, in fact he told me, that he is picking up and looking at one can at a time very carefully. Glad I'm not there, I would be going insane.
He can't bluff and is terrible at poker, and terrible at investing in the stock mkt. Doesn't ask me either. doesn't take cues from what I say I'm doing.
I believe that this is a forced adjustment for China. With currency volatility at present levels it is far too expensive if not almost impossible to do currency hedging. With China so dependent on foreign trade what options do they have but deal in their own currency?
However, the implications might still be profound. But as there are more and more backroom rumors of capital flight from China, it might actually lead to the surprising result that the Yuan might devalue vs. the dollar on a fundamental level.
RE | 12.25.08 - 6:13 pm | #
I agree with both points. They can't afford to peg anymore and they can't afford not to [need the trade surplus that ONLY a cheap yuan can guarantee]... sucks to be them and us.
Wonder how well Imhotep did, financially speaking. Actually, prolly pretty well.
yeah, she has local friends in Boston, which is Cat 3 rather than Cat 5 destruction as Fla is real estate-wise. But I don't think it's gonna do any good. No work at all is no work.
Looks like my wife's biotech is kaput in March. They are looking for another round of funding, fat chance of that happening. Her type of work is in demand (mix of software/biotech experience) but every other company that is interested in her also only has 4-5 months of cash on hand. No use changing jobs right now.
My company is about 10k employee. Just RIF'd a bunch of very high level people a few weeks ago. This last week they took a machete to their offshore presence throughout the company. Depending on the group anywhere from 80-90% gone. Another full-time RIF is coming in January in the full-time tech area. Not touching the customer facing positions, only the back-end/tech related positions. Looks like this could be a very bad year in the Bay Area, CA.
For the record my niece and her enfinanced are in Nebraska.
What I am seeing is a dispersion (some could call it an exurban diaspora) but the other side of the same coin is that economic shocks propagate far further (and faster) than anyone imagined. Hoocoodanode?
My mom was a secy for an architectual firm in Balto for 28 years, so checks the architectural want ads just for the heck of it, to see if her old firm or anyone else is hiring. No ads for architects or designers at all in the Balto Sun.
My daughter worked there one summer building models and they really liked her and let her be at a presentation of one of the models. Long time ago now.
Forgot to add, spoke to my sister in the UK today. She works for the government and has something to do with tracking unemployment in her region which is Yorkshire. She says it's looking awful from the tracking she is doing.
Yet his IQ is way higher, and I could never do Fourier analysis, or read books of equations, like he did when studing for his Phd orals. And he sez he's not any good at math. lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 6:15 pm | #
I went to college w/ a bunch of guys like him when in undergrad chem eng - I talked many of them into doing my homework when we studied at the student union together - meanwhile I would be debating the Socialists & Libertarians simultaneously - like here [LOL]. I KNOW my chem e buds were smarter than I was but they LOVED to see me lock horns w/ the ideologs and I was good at it so obliges & made a good show of it. My sis [she was a prosecutor at DOJ] always thought I should have been a lawyer too - maybe in my next life.
Sorry to hear about your Mom. Both my folks are gone now but my sisters & I did a lot of that stuff while they were alive. Enjoy them while you can even when frail - they go fast.
Only a month and a half to the great TV revolution. Thats when millions wake up to find their drug of choice has been taken away.
Talked to the SIL today. She is a CRE attorney. October was absymal. Novemeber almost as bad. December picked up a little and January looks about the same.
[Looks like this could be a very bad year in the Bay Area, CA]
With unemployment already pushing 9% and the state government in shambles very bad might be an understatement. Yet home prices remain 2X-3X the national average. Until that untapped wealth is depleated, I don't see a rush to rescue...
[Chicomms] can't afford to peg anymore and they can't afford not to [need the trade surplus that ONLY a cheap yuan can guarantee]... sucks to be them and us. - dryfly
They need to hold their industrial revolution together long enough to cement an urban industrial and service economy.
Won't work. Worse, they won't see that it won't work until too late for us and them.
... but the other side of the same coin is that economic shocks propagate far further (and faster) than anyone imagined. Hoocoodanode? Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 6:21 pm | #
The similarities between the Madoff scandal and the current TARP program are insidious.
Investors in Madoff's business knew it was too good to be true but went along to get the seemingly guaranteed high returns. American Taxpayers have been going along with the TARP and other programs due to a belief these actions will save the American economy. The worsening of the economy will show this to be another case of fraud and further erode confidence in the federal government. The final straw might be about to be plucked for the taxpayer.
PE Obama has rightfully been presented as a beacon of hope for America. A reinforcement of the "anything is possible in America" mentality. I offer the thought that should Obama fail in producing a "Hail Mary" pass in saving our economy and wasy of life then even more belief in the system will be lost. We need a lot of luck going forward.
They need to hold their industrial revolution together long enough to cement an urban industrial and service economy. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 6:29 pm | #
Until they have a social net Chinese will not consume they will save. I had an Uncle of my wife's die of a brain stroke last year in Beijing. Middle class so they could afford hospital and the cost of an ambulance. They were up on approx. the 10th floor of a high-rise. When the ambulance arrived they couldn't get a stretcher up so he had to walk down unaided after having just suffered a stroke, not the best thing I would think. Got him into the hospital and a lot of work required money under the table.
The poor are way worse off then the middle-class BTW. It will take years and a lot of money to create a proper social safety net in China.
Won't work. Worse, they won't see that it won't work until too late for us and them. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 6:29 pm | #
I agree. BTW I know some PE-owned US based mfgrs with plants in China - their whole reason to be there was a 'arbitrage' play. Build a facility in China when RMB was ~8 to the dollar... do business in RMB only [no taxable dollar exposure]... then sell when exchange rate goes to ~6-5 RMB to the dollar.
"What if the exchange rates go the other way?" dryfly asks... He get's the same look MBS securitizers gave when asked what happens when housing prices go down.
ot an architect, I hope. She had a boyfriend who lives in Colorado, who I think would want her back, who is an architect, but does a lot of things, including fighting fires in fire season.
But lives in tiny town in Colorado, and she's a city girl.
And I guess, it's like one of those chess masters who can do 20 games at a time with amateurs. For me, it is so simple and easy, I don't understand why it is hard for him. In fact, when the comments aren't coming thick and fast is when I text someone because I've gotten bored. Of course when I'm working, I'm annoyed that the threads are so long.
And thanks for Pavel's and everyone's best wishes, but my thought is that if glod had anything to do with it, it wouldn't have happened in the first place.
Unless it's glod's wish that I didn't have to spend Christmas looking at cans. . . Not that I would have done that anyway.
but does a lot of things, including fighting fires in fire season. lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 6:36 pm | #
Recession proof - knew some who have done that then skied all winter. Great gig - tell her to reconsider that one.
But lives in tiny town in Colorado, and she's a city girl.
Depends on 'where'... there are some very 'cosmopolitan' little towns in Colarado... especially near the ski hotspots (Telluride, Aspen, Steamboat, 'A' Basin, etc.) Been there - too rich for my blood.
"Depends on 'where'... there are some very 'cosmopolitan' little towns in Colarado... especially near the ski hotspots (Telluride, Aspen, Steamboat, 'A' Basin, etc.) Been there - too rich for my blood."
Just stay off the eastern plains. Colorado has some amazing small towns that most people would jump at a chance to live and work in. Problem is there are no beaches. That is why I prefer Tahiti.
I know some PE-owned US based mfgrs with plants in China - their whole reason to be there was a 'arbitrage' play. Build a facility in China when RMB was ~8 to the dollar... do business in RMB only [no taxable dollar exposure]... then sell when exchange rate goes to ~6-5 RMB to the dollar.
Their insane moment was in assuming that a manipulated (okay, controlled) currency/economy would turn into a convertible currency and market economy.
We see now that 6 RMB or lower means internal collapse. Unfortunately 8 RMB means tying oneself to a boat anchor. They were so stupid to think a basket currency would emerge rationally.
Sure a basket could develop (I opine no) but regardless of my opinion only after the old exchange metrics fail. Give the Chicomm masters that much credit. The cost of fail is still far larger than the cost of support.
"What if the exchange rates go the other way?" dryfly asks... He get's the same look MBS securitizers gave when asked what happens when housing prices go down.
People keep accusing me of being deep. Actually, I am very literal, and I expect that I would not understand a glod, but that there are basic minimum standards any glod would have. The part of the universe I inhabit doesn't come up to any reasonable glod-standard.
And nothing is OT on Xmas evening. And what the heck are you doing on here anyway, Pavel? Why aren't you singing carols with the fambly. Which was what I was planning to do. I especially like O Holy Nite, tho I'm sure I sound like a banshee singing it.
I like carols & cathedrals, & a lot of religious art & also yoga and other stuff that came from religion. I also like tearing religous systems apart. Alas, it is not good for my soul to try to even listen to a sermon, 'cause I just tear it apart logically in terms of the belief-system that the preacher has. Preachers of all stripes are very illogical and generally don't know their own belief system very well. I like some one on the other side more challenging usually,
Just stay off the eastern plains. Elvis | 12.25.08 - 6:44 pm | #
Like Sterling CO. A buddy and I spent the better part of two days trying to get a ride outta there hitch hiking in the late 70s. Been back there since - only difference is now they got WalMart.
And nothing is OT on Xmas evening. And what the heck are you doing on here anyway, Pavel? Why aren't you singing carols with the fambly. lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 6:46 pm | #
My fambly is watching Momma Mia in the other room... so I disapeared into my office with some cheap brandy.
[Looks like this could be a very bad year in the Bay Area, CA]
Yet home prices remain 2X-3X the national average. Until that untapped wealth is depleated, I don't see a rush to rescue...
So, bearly, you're saying there will be no significant bailout for CA from the Feds until Prop 13 is revoked?
This is from the USC US- China Institute. You can sign up for free weekly emails.
Some highlights (their bold):
This past weekend officials hammered out a plan to allow Taiwan banks to enter the Chinese market. Chinese officials also expressed concern about the impact of the economic downturn on cross-strait investors. To aid them in weathering the storm, the Chinese government will loan up to $19 billion to Taiwan businesses operating in China.
In recent years, China's population has been growing at 0.6-0.8%/year. Chinese officials estimate the drop means that the country avoided having more than 200 million additional people to provide for. ... This birth gap will exacerbate the difficulties men in poorer areas have in finding wives. Even more serious than this problem, however, is the demographic squeeze that lies ahead. In two decades, China will have more than 300 million people over age 60. How can a single child support two parents and four grandparents?
Glod, my ugly people comment will never be foregotten. Said I wasn't gonna comment further. But ya know, I did mean ugly on the outside, not the inside. Like Madoff. I'd much rather be one of the poor, ugly ones rather than Madoff.
Thanks Leigh. And Elvis, you would out me, wouldn't you?
By the way, it's warm here so far, and I wouldn't have needed the warm stuff--yet.
Oh, well, lawyerliz brightens up. Maybe they will legalize polyandry. I always thought a woman could deal with (in all ways) several hubs better than a man with several wives. . .
Women of the US: import young Chinese trophy husbands!!! We will all be very much happier.
And remember Ben Franklin's comment: we will be very grateful.!!
Jeebus, just had a fragment of a freaky vision. Have not had one in quite awhile.
I was coming in from taking out the trash, and was walking down the street in front of the house. The street (semi-residential) switched to a different scene and there were people walking down the middle of a road.
I could hear a women complaining, and other voices in the background.
I knew they were cold, tired, homeless, and hungry. Going where? I have no idea.
How can a single child support two parents and four grandparents?
Exit | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 6:55 pm | #
I think it would be smart to start trying to figure out this little riddle. Our path to continued growth via population growth might very well not be sustainable on many, many levels. The Chinese have particularly good insight into that proposition.
But the economy is everywhere this Christmas. Seems to creep into every table discussion. So I'm drawn here while in digestive torpor. We are supposed to have 3 Christmas dinners today! All the grandmothers insist on cooking (there's been a divorce and remarriage so there's a third). The third is in a foul humor right now because nobody wants to eat her food. It's good but everybody already feels sick!
I keep telling everybody - slacking is the secret to Christmas joy - but nobody listens.
I thought LL's "ugly people" comment was on target. Looks, to the standard demanded in our society, require money for all but a few of the most fortunate. Braces, manicures, hair styling, increasingly at least some plastic surgery - it adds up. Plus, clothes influence opinions of looks even though they don't really change them. Poor people look like people really do which in this society is "ugly".
How can a single child support two parents and four grandparents?
Exit | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 6:55 pm | #
I think it would be smart to start trying to figure out this little riddle. Our path to continued growth via population growth might very well not be sustainable on many, many levels. The Chinese have particularly good insight into that proposition.
RE | 12.25.08 - 7:05 pm | #
China desperately needs to create a proper social safety net. This is the long term solution. One very over-looked issue also is how spoiled children have become since the one child policy was implemented. I have seen the difference between how the Chinese of my wife's generation (pre one-child policy) treat their parents versus the children born post one-child policy. There has been a significant break-down in the family social fabric in China and children do not take care of their parents anywhere close to the level that used to happen. I was also struck how few older people live in Beijing now when I visited in 2005.
I have gotten stuck in few places trying to hitch a ride out. Me and a buddy got stuck in some little town in NM in 71. They would not give us water. Had to get our water from the gas station. All they would let us have is the water by the pumps. 2 days and hotter than hell.
ova--was the street scene your street, or somewhere else? I'd love to hear about your other visions.
I of course, am naturally beautiful, except, errr, I would not have nice looking teeth without dentristry!! Not to mention being a health food and vitamin fanatic.
I remember reading this thing advertising something to do with teeth to 17th (?) century aristocrats, which assumed they'd have few to no teeth. Queen Elizabeth the First wasn't so great in the tooth area, right? Also, seems I read something about aristocratic girls not being allowed to smile too much so as not to display their tooth situation.
I think I should now seek take out, before my son disowns me. He went to go exercise a while ago, and must be muscle bound by now.
Yeah, I'm an only child (actually I have a half sister I never met), and my friends were always saying I was spoiled when I was a kid. I never thought so!!
China desperately needs to create a proper social safety net. This is the long term solution. One very over-looked issue also is how spoiled children have become since the one child policy was implemented. I have seen the difference between how the Chinese of my wife's generation (pre one-child policy) treat their parents versus the children born post one-child policy. There has been a significant break-down in the family social fabric in China and children do not take care of their parents anywhere close to the level that used to happen. I was also struck how few older people live in Beijing now when I visited in 2005.
Pissed Off In California
I remember reading about women in China drowing female infants several decades ago after the implementation of one child policy.
Any current male vs female population demographics are much appreciated.
Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Japans industrial production fell the most in at least five years in November after exports dropped by a record.
Factory output tumbled 8.1 percent from October, when it dropped 3.1 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 6.8 percent decline.
Did anyone ever see Big Trouble? It was set in Miami, and featured a guy who lived in one of those huge, many rooted banyan/ficus trees in the back of someone's yard. It was never released in the movies because it ended with a nuclear explosion (under water) and was supposed to come out around 9/11. The scenes of the tree are quite authentic and I could show you guys exactly where it is in coconut Grove.
I hear that there are people living in the woods in Brevard County. At least it doesn't got so cold here so much.
From Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, womens clothing sales dropped 23 percent and mens fell 14 percent, according to SpendingPulse.
Combined electronics and appliance sales tumbled 27 percent, with purchases over $1,000 suffering the most, according to SpendingPulse data. Luxury sales, including jewelry, plunged 35 percent, the data showed.
Purchases over the Internet fared better, with a 2.3 percent decline. E-commerce may have been helped by inclement weather at the end of the holiday shopping season, McNamara said. Historically Web sales have posted 15 percent to 20 percent year- over-year sales gains.
The SpendingPulse data service calculates its sales estimates based on MasterCard Inc. network transactions and adjusts for cash, checks and other payment forms. MasterCard is the worlds second-biggest credit-card company.
Holiday greetings from Berlin to my CR family (XMas is called "Silvester" here... hard not to think of a cat for those of us raised on American cartoons).
Not sure if there was really a topic to be OT from, but the theme we seem to keep returning to is unemployment. From where I sit, things are already looking ugly: one brother-in-law (computer IT) has already lost his job, and two other major family breadwinners are in large corporations that have announced they will be having 10K+ layoffs in the upcoming year. Not pretty. (Laid off BIL immediately got socked with a COBRA bill larger than his mortgage.)
Unemployment is key to understanding China, also: they're trying to figure out what's going to happen when people return after Chinese New Year from their visits to the countryside to cities where their jobs may no longer exist. So I'm looking at March as being the month where the sht should hit the fn. In the end, they'd be happy to write off all our crappy paper if they could just keep these people employed and not rioting, I think.
But that's the future. For now, let me pass on my best wishes to all of you on a cold XMas night! (And if Santa left synthetic collateralized CMOs in your stocking, that's not a good sign... at least coal would have heating value!)
The issue of "growth" is central to any economic discussion, isn't it?
For example, what exactly is "sustainable growth"?
I will offer that "unsustainable growth" is another term for the various bubbles we're so fond of decrying. Yet the concept of sustainable growth underpins corporate quarterly results, and the resultant fluctuations in equity prices as traded on the bourses when growth is not sustained. Isn't the graph "supposed" to always incline up?
Malthus had something to say about this idea - and just look at CR's superlative graphs.
Human population and economic growth come at a certain price. From where does the biomass that currently comprises the "being" part of human beings derive? And isn't it the extraction, processing, and delivery of said biomass definitionally, "the economy"?
Liz- I think you could sometimes post as Polly Andree and those of us reading today would get your joke.
Beats polygamy - I can't deal with the honey do list I got now. Polyandry has some merit. Maybe with some help we'd getterdone. Then there'd be more time to watch hockey, drink and blog.
Yep, and the Black Plague caused a lot of doubts about the beneficience of glod.
Unfortunately this required that dying thing and it came back every decade or 2 for literally centuries.
After about 50 years the laborers had it good money wise, and continued to do so for quite a while. And equality increased, relatively. The rich got poorer.
But I dunno. If the design was intelligent, this reproduction thing would not be exponential on a finite earth.
Beat the speed of light barrier anyone? Colonize other planets?
I understand that Europe had a Renaissance after the Black Plague had run its course...
It was great for the working class and helped destroy serfdom. There was inflation for a generation or three I think. It also helped destroy belief in the Church
LL: Maybe some Chinese Buddhists who own a restaurant are open.
LOL you don't have to be Jewish to enjoy Chinese food on Christmas.
Re Yuan trading, more Hong Kong banks will be allowed a larger scope of RMB business in the coming year. The door to a more open capital account has been creaking open for some time. But totally agree that the Chinese monetary authorities are really in a bind, and dollar questions are forcing the issue.
That said, I'm not sure what regional traders who sell into China will do w/ RMB until it's a truly convertable international currency.
We moved here (Bay Area) a year ago to keep my job, sold house in Maryland but don't have enough money to buy another one here. Wouldn't want to borrow too much in case of sudden unemployment.
My sister suggests we move in with her, she and BIL own their house outright. My thought was to buy a house in low cost area, but we could live with them and share expenses.
WARSAW (Reuters) - A Polish man got the shock of his life when he visited a brothel and spotted his wife among the establishment's employees. Polish tabloid Super Express said the woman had been making some extra money on the side while telling her husband she worked at a store in a nearby town. "I was dumfounded. I thought I was dreaming," the husband told the newspaper on Wednesday. The couple, married for 14 years, are now divorcing, the newspaper reported. (Writing by Chris Borowski, Editing by Matthew Jones)
Is borrowed growth actually growth? From Denninger:
Let's take GDP over a longer period of time - say, 10 years, and make a law that says there is no credit to be extended. That is, you pay cash or you don't buy. We add up all the output for the entire 10 year period and put it in a bucket.
That's the total output of the economy over the entire ten year period, along with all the productivity that enabled it.
Now let's add credit to the system. What happens?
Some people will immediately "pull from forward earnings" via credit. That is, they will purchase a TV they want today with earnings that they believe they will have tomorrow.
This is the old "Wimpie" game from the Popeye cartoons - "I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today!"
Now, here's the question - has the addition of credit actually added to GDP, or just shifted in time when the GDP is recorded?
If - and only if - the credit extended is used for the purpose of producing additional output, then it is a net additive to GDP.
If a farmer has 100 acres of land but only enough money to buy seed for 50 of those acres, his employment of credit to buy the other 50 acres worth of seed increases net GDP because he is using that credit line for the explicit purpose of increasing the net output of his labor. The credit extended to him is liquidated when the additional output is produced, but the output (less the cost of the credit) remains.
When credit is used in this fashion the debt-to-GDP ratio falls because the amount of debt outstanding remains the same or declines while the GDP increases.
If you instead consume, however, you have only performed a time shift on demand, not added to actual demand. In fact due to interest cost you have shrunk the total (long-term) demand that exists in the economy because interest does not accreate to GDP.
We all recognize Wimpy from the Popeye Cartoons as a scam; why is it that we don't recognize that what Bernanke is attempting to do is precisely the same damn thing and demand that he stop it!
If you look at the GDP over a long enough period of time, this becomes obvious and indisputable - that which is demanded today isn't necessary tomorrow, and there is no long-term salutary impact on the economy.
The third condition is when debt-to-GDP expands dramatically, as it has been now for the last 30 years. In this case credit is being used to both pull forward demand and to pay the interest on previously-extended credit!
This latter case is insanely destructive when maintained over a long period of time, because there is a natural limit beyond which credit cannot be expanded nor can demand be pulled forward.
At some point the people have all the cars, IPods and flatscreen TVs they need, and their want for additional consumption becomes tempered by the pain of the debt service that came with "pulling forward" from an infinite future horizon.
and their want for additional consumption becomes tempered by the pain of the debt service that came with "pulling forward" from an infinite future horizon.
Anonymous | 12.25.08 - 7:43 pm
And when that future horizon looks bleak you have a recessio
March, whatever. Late January, February... whatever. Why do people think the "market" will wait that long? Do you think countries are just gonna sit there until they are backed into a corner?
It seems like right now America is showing everyone their hand. So what if we are winning the nickel and dime pots. At some point the other countries are going to start to clean up.
Do you want a case in point? In the 1980s when Russia was mired in a war, America funded the opposition. Would it be that surprising for China (or some other country we think of as an ally; maybe a country that supplied a majority of the 9/11 hijackers flush with dollars).... okay.
Would it be surprising if China or Russia or other country flush with dollars (or Euro's) started funneling support to the opposition in a place like Afghanistan? Johnny Jihad and his sympathizers would be dumb enough to accept payment in dollars....
YLSP writes:
March, whatever. Late January, February... whatever. Why do people think the "market" will wait that long? Do you think countries are just gonna sit there until they are backed into a corner?
All I said was March keeps coming up in discussions. Unfortunately I don't know how long the market or other counntries will wait. If I did, I wouldn't be here.
Trying to analyze the "real" effect of credit gets into incredibly complicated and very speculative issues of how to time-discount utility and even nastier issues of expectations of time-discounted utility. The primary driver of growth is difficult-to-explain improvements in efficiency, so at least to a first order adding credit, which allows using more capital for more production, doesn't increase production much. It could produce utility improvements, but as I mentioned above those are very difficult to estimate even in theory, never mind practice.
However, widespread credit permits highly destructive mistakes if future production is over- or under-estimated. I think the problem with a highly leveraged society is not that leverage per se is a problem but that leverage magnifies mistakes about predicting the future and causes them to produce more bad actions today.
Retail sales got walloped in Dec: down 8% from last year up to Christmas. 4% if you exclude gasoline. Given that YoY inflation is still positive (3%+ in November) those are really grim numbers. I can't find historical records by just poking around but I think that's worse than the 80's recessions.
The current financial debacle is really not a liquidity crisis as it is often euphemistically called. It is a crisis of overgrowth of financial assets relative to growth of real wealthpretty much the opposite of too little liquidity. Financial assets have grown by a large multiple of the real economypaper exchanging for paper is now 20 times greater than exchanges of paper for real commodities. It should be no surprise that the relative value of the vastly more abundant financial assets has fallen in terms of real assets. Real wealth is concrete; financial assets are abstractionsexisting real wealth carries a lien on it in the amount of future debt. The value of present real wealth is no longer sufficient to serve as a lien to guarantee the exploding debt. Consequently the debt is being devalued in terms of existing wealth. No one any longer is eager to trade real present wealth for debt even at high interest rates. This is because the debt is worth much less, not because there is not enough money or credit, or because banks are not lending to each other as commentators often say.
Can the economy grow fast enough in real terms to redeem the massive increase in debt? In a word, no. As Frederick Soddy (1926 Nobel Laureate chemist and underground economist) pointed out long ago, you cannot permanently pit an absurd human convention, such as the spontaneous increment of debt [compound interest] against the natural law of the spontaneous decrement of wealth [entropy]. The population of negative pigs (debt) can grow without limit since it is merely a number; the population of positive pigs (real wealth) faces severe physical constraints. The dawning realization that Soddys common sense was right, even though no one publicly admits it, is what underlies the crisis. The problem is not too little liquidity, but too many negative pigs growing too fast relative to the limited number of positive pigs whose growth is constrained by their digestive tracts, their gestation period, and places to put pigpens. Also there are too many two‐legged Wall Street pigs, but that is another matter.
"What we lose between Thanksgiving and Christmas, we think we gain between Christmas and New Year's," said Jeff Maynard, the head of marketing at Circuit City, which has been advertising Blu-Ray discs for $12.99 this week and unveiled a fresh round of post-Christmas sales Thursday.
Quoting a Circuit City exec. who says "we think" doesn't inspire confidence
I opened my gift today and lo and behold it was a pair of copper socks, made in...wait for it...the US of A. Ah, ye Americans and ye'er ingenuity. What will ye think of next?
As expected, Hitler was also caught in the worldwide real estate collapse, (or, in German, "Der Untergang.") Here is a video of the whole sad story, and I believe it's the funniest You Tube video you'll see this year.
The I-76 run. I have done this many times doing the MN to Colorado run. That stretch just inside the Colorado border is one of the bleakest roads I've ever been on in my life. After traversing Nebraska, I'd always think, "well, now I"m in colorful Colorado, home free." Then, it would be three more hours until anything resembling classic Colorado landscape. Scrub brush, brown everywhere and can barely see the Rockies out the passenger window.
I've been on this road in bad winter weather, and can remember having to follow a U.S. mail semi at higher speed than I was comfortable with in my FWD Camry, if only not to lose the road. Scary.
Just think - LL has three husbands and decides to divorce Messrs. Cerberus. Then gets alimony from each of them. Hey, Liz, it was YOUR idea! And would they have to draw straws for, you know......
An earlier video portrayed H.C. as A.H. using same clip. Even though I don't speak Deutsche, I recognize surnames trying to pass off as words like "credit" in the subs - kinda ruins it for me. Plus I already knew the ending.
sdtfs, I'm very flattered, but my husband is relatively conservative about such things. We want children, and one of his unmarried female friends wanted to have a child by him and possibly live with us. I was fine, even if she only had his children and not mine, but he nixed it.
Plus, of course, we're both American so it doesn't help the oversupply of Chinese and Indian men at all.
My understanding is that polyandrous relationships are problematic because the men get too jealous. Although I have to say a high adult-child ratio makes raising children easier in my limited experience.
El Cliffo,
More funny was seeing that Hitler was a Cowboy's fan.
I'm sorry, that video is so old to me its kind've laughable. Did you know Paris Hilton made a sex tape? Ever see the Star Wars Kid? Familiar with the "Numa, Numa" guy?
Sorry, I kid, I kid, I kid... I'm sure your kids could point you in the direction of more side-splitting stuff. I don't think its too far of a guess to say you aren't part of the Internet Generation where these videos are posted even in the niche news sites we visit...
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zAjPAVxF5I>This video (Trampoline Basketball) is probably more sad than funny... warning, pain is coming
Most likely if it's more than a month, most people have already seen it and had it sent to them 100 times...
Retail sales got walloped in Dec: down 8% from last year up to Christmas. 4% if you exclude gasoline. Given that YoY inflation is still positive (3%+ in November) those are really grim numbers. I can't find historical records by just poking around but I think that's worse than the 80's recessions. Fair Economist | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 8:21 pm | #
My son works in retail at Mall Of America - he said his store was something like 10% ahead of plan (a rolling forecast) as late as September... as of the day before Christmas he said the store was now down 30% off their plan. Only good thing he can say is they were still better than most other stores in his district and they cut head count early (before the bottom had fallen out) so at least had a chance to remain cash flow positive. But they will need to cut again - assuming they stay open.
And compared to my recollection - this doesn't feel 80s like - not yet. Wait until we get tumbleweeds growing through cracks in the pavement at abandoned strip malls & factories - I literally saw that in the 80s at more than a few places.
Fair Economist(Unrated) writes: My understanding is that polyandrous relationships are problematic because the men get too jealous.
You have to have boys who are genuinely poly -- no arguments about what it takes to "get there" -- and there has to be very open communication and no status fear.
If you start playing stupid boudoir / relationship power games you can wreck it very fast but that is true of any relationship.
My pawnshop was down 17% in sales ( We do 95% Jewelry and Custom Design ). Most sales where people coming in wanting something made or modified .Any Jewelry store that doesn't do in house jewelry work(service ) was killed this Xmas . I had Reed's jewelry store call us about buying used cases and safes.Christian Bernard ( another mall jewelry store )laid off sales staff on Sunday before Xmas . In the past Christmas help was paid to stay till the first a bonus. Located in Norfolk Virginia .
My hipness filter goes to 11, but then I only see my own posts... you might know my neighbor, Clark Griswold? He's the jerk that gets my apartment raided by SWAT teams every Christmas...
bearly writes:
Brother just got word this week his job is history. He's a city engineer working for a CA municipality, on contract. Contract terminated and his services no longer needed by the agency. I am ready to tip over some desks.
No way CA can repeat that last bond sale stick-save with this growing and now 42 $BIL problem, and which national taxpayers will be, once again, ignored, then lied to and then robbed in the latest, ill-fated guarantee attempt? I'll be curious how the fed adapts from postponing the consequences of major credit events to dealing with a cash-crunch event. Maybe they'll bring back the Bank of California.
Hey! Imagine if every couple in america just exchanged money for "services rendered"? We could add 30% to GDP... I'm not sure, but it could easily be $1000/week at 100M couples or $5T/yr.
But all of us married folks would have to go to jail :^( I (and many others) would be unwilling to pay Brutus for his "services" and then GDP would plummet. So what was HE Doing visiting a brothel, hunh? Was he spending some of the money SHE made?
Strangest thing; these three ghosts visited me last night...
Just wanted in pop in to wish CR and all of the great people here a happy and safe holiday season
"... the origins of the Mortgage Pitâ¢"
An appropriate typo!
I just received my mortgage pig polo shirt .Happy Holidays to all
Merry xmas and happy holidays, via blackberry in NJ. CR, I am eternally grateful for what you do. Tanta Vive!
So much is wrong these days, and this site reminds me that things can be better. And will be.
Be good to your fellow man. Peace,
Gary
Anonymous writes:
'Mikuni said. Treasury yields, which are near record lows, may fall further without debt relief, making it difficult for the U.S. to borrow elsewhere, Mikuni said.'
Why would Treasury yields fall further w/o debt relief? If there is no debt relief, wouldn't Treasuries becom less attractive and cause yields to rise?
Anonymous
"Anyone who asserts knowledge of such things in any communication, written or otherwise, is creating an Internet Urban Legend." - Tanta
She says that as if it is a bad thing. Whole social tapestries are woven from less. Pr0n, glod, eaten by a grue, first, don't eat the pudding.
Tanta may be gone but her spirit lives. And the mythos must grow. Mortimer and Mortica (w/lipstick) Mortgage Pig are bigger than any one of us.
"Anyone who asserts knowledge of such things in any communication, written or otherwise, is creating an Internet Urban Legend." - Tanta
We didn't use to call it the "web of a million lies" for nuthin', you know...
wow, Tanta posting posthumously, still producing material after going to her great reward....she's like Tupac.
And the mythos must grow...
Tanta vive!
"Slap it" one more time for Tanta! Oink
BTW, "Hoocoodanode" made it to the Urban Dictionary
Urban Dictionary: hoocoodanode
Worth reading in NYT:
THE RECKONING; Once Trusted Mortgage Pioneers, Now Pariahs - NY Times
At least two memorable lines:
"option ARMs ... are Typhoid Mary of the mortgage industry."
and
You have to understand how independent brokers work, Mr. Sandler says. They are the whores of the world.
Da Pig!!!!!
(love the post!)
..........
Thanks CR
Thanks, Tanta
Tanta Vive!
From the NYT article:
"Mr. Sandler said. If home prices hadnt declined by 50 percent, nobody would be raising these questions."
Snicker. Chortle.
Yeah, that REALLY helps clear Mr Sandler's image as someone out-of-touch with normalcy and plain standards of living...
Glod I miss Tanta.
Merry Christmas all and hopes for a prosperous NewYears
I'm wearing my Mortgage Pig polo today. Merry Christmas to CR, and to Tanta, wherever she may be.
OT - Many of our betters, the Paul Krugmans and James Hamiltons, are calling for the FED to target an annual inflation rate around +2/3%. Now that the FF has reached the floor, the Temple Masters are looking at unconventional means to induce nominal GDP higher, e.g. buying securities they deem artificially low.
Here's an idea: why don't they buy near term futures contracts on commodities such as oil, copper, lumber, and platinum? One further, why don't they buy S&P500 contracts in the trillions? That would reverse the negative wealth effect, encouraging the masses to save less because the FED is saving for them.
This isn't likely to happen, nor is the threat of a "unilateral devaluation of the U.S. dollar" I read about all over the Web by glod worshipers. Were the FED to literally begin attempting to set prices in commodities and equities, broad confidence would be further eroded, esp. between securities' prices and their fundamental values. Markets would likely lock-up and participants refuse to buy or sell anything, sending the economy into a tailspin.
The FED is impotent. All they can do now is further erode confidence. And the Treasuries attempts to artificially prop up house prices will only stretch out the U.S. economy's lost decade. A dark future of misery lies ahead for the majority of the U.S. and world's population.
Merry Christmas!!~!!
=)
Merry christmas to all...
Comrade Terry, yes, very funny typo - i corrected it anyway.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!
Happy holidays, everyone.
Can't wait for 2009 and the much anticipated CR trilogy:
Coming soon to booksellers near you (let's hope).
Donate/Letter/en
Wow. Amazing gift from Tanta ... from my family, I only got a tie! And oddly enough, I dreamt last night about talking to a dear departed friend of mine. Ghosts of Christmases will do that to you. Merry Solstice, everyone!
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse
"This isn't likely to happen, nor is the threat of a "unilateral devaluation of the U.S. dollar" I read about all over the Web by glod worshipers."
Don't disagree, but how does this square with your recent conversion to long oil? You're expecting demand to reverse? Or do you simply see short term trading opportunity over current lows?
I do not want to spoil anyone's Christmas, but this video did me
Karl Denninger:
YouTube - Paulson, Kashkari and CONgress SKEWERED
Interesting Dallas Fed letter pertaining to the near future of CRE:
Financial Crisis Casts Shadow Over Commercial Real Estate - Economic Letter, December 2008 - FRB Dallas
Re: "Canon, in terms of a fictional universe, is any material that is considered to be "genuine", or can be directly referenced as material produced by the original author or creator of a series."
LOL!
China to allow freer yuan trades
"China has said it is to allow some trade with its neighbours to be settled with its currency, the yuan."
...
"Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan was quoted by the South China Morning Post as saying: "The US dollar is unlikely to be stable next year and later."
BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | China to allow freer yuan trades
Looks like China realizes global trade isn't coming back soon. Moving to secure Asia and the Southern Hemisphere as a Yuan dominated trade zone.
The dollar failing as the reserve currency doesn't need a G20 agreement. The ramifications if this takes hold is tremendous for the US.
Rn is the prototypical example of a real n-dimensional vector space. In fact, every real n-dimensional vector space V is isomorphic to Rn. This isomorphism is not canonical, however. A choice of isomorphism is equivalent to a choice of basis for V (by looking at the image of the standard basis for Rn in V). The reason for working with arbitrary vector spaces instead of Rn is that it is often preferable to work in a coordinate-free manner (that is, without choosing a preferred basis).
See also, Yield curves with negative integers: Euclidean space - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The race to solve the ZIRP is on:
Kronecker delta - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In mathematics, the Kronecker delta or Kronecker's delta, named after Leopold Kronecker (1823-1891), is a function of two variables, usually integers, which is 1 if they are equal, and 0 otherwise
Merry Xmas, CR. And thank you for the reminder of Tanta.
For once, I looked closely at my mother's face as she spoke; the deep age lines etched into her forehead and perpetual frown; her snow-white hair.
It all runs in channels. The nearer you are to the destination, the less variance this is, the less manipulation is possible. Further away, you can tweak the memes but the effect is moderated and less predictable. And as I read the latest theories on the Long Tail, the counter-acting forces of homogenuity are confirmed so maybe it doesn't matter.
Maybe it's all an illusion.
Equations of ZiRP? That's part of the puzzle. Equations and numbers, trillions of dollars and I wonder what, really, is "value"?
A maserati? It has value through rarity but it would have far less value in a world of expensive gas.
The concept of value is thoroughly trashed now. Is it a temporary function of false money or a permanent function of pervasive, costless information?
Costless. On Digg, I see the memes have finally percolated down to virtually free tracking -
Trendrr
I'll play around with it today. Combine it with the Facebook invasion strategy, toss into some exotic bots and the Internet itself, as it is right now, has no value, a paradox turned back into itself like a Klein bottle.
I suppose I'll go open some gifts now.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 12.25.08
I finally got some time off...
Here is a quote for the person you emailed me about...Straight from the Ft Meyers MLS.
"I CURRENTLY HAVE 23 LISTINGS IN VILLAGE CREEK WITH ANOTHER 70 AVAILABLE WHICH ARE CURRENTLY NOT ON THE MLS. THESE ARE SHORT SALES SUBJECT TO EXISTING LENDER'S APPROVAL. LENDER IS AWARE OF PRICING. PLEASE CALL FOR SHOWING"
70 !!!!!!!!!!!! Not listed.
Back to Christmas Story....
Chris
Markets are busy anticipating the 2nd half of 2012 recovery.
Jas is right about the political impotence of the American population.
Case in point: the bailout bill. 99% of Americans calling "their" congressmen opposed it. Didn't matter!
Dopes!
Brother just got word this week his job is history. He's a city engineer working for a CA municipality, on contract. Contract terminated and his services no longer needed by the agency.
I have 3 close friends out of work and now my brother. Anyone's job can be wiped out in 2009. Keep your fingers crossed. Mine are. Good luck to all.
Bearly:
Understand our local city in North County, SD, will also be implementing 15% budget cuts after Jan 1. Good luck to you and yours.
Jim Rogers shorting the long bond...
Bloomberg News
Brother just got word this week his job is history.
bearly | 12.25.08 - 4:24 pm | #
Sorry to hear that, Bearly.
I think we'll be seeing more of that in the CR Community.
love the ending :
LiveLeak.com - The dollar is doomed
I said it once, and I will say it again, no one, and I mean no one is going to not be hurt.
I am praying for a glancing blow as opposed to a direct on hit from the light at the end of the tunnel...
Other than that, hang on and enjoy your holidays...
God, I hate being so depressive, where's my bottle of whiskey!
May I make a suggestion for those who think that they may lose their jobs...
JobsUSA, govt job listings thru out the US...
It might be something that you want to start on before any possible job loss...
Best that I can offer...
Well the momster feels amazingly well for what she went through. She tried
to punch the lady in the nose, before playing dead!!
The house wasn't ransacked, one small tv taken, no bigger, her bigger new tv wasn't & they didn't even go through her jewelry stuff, tho most is costume jewelry. Other electronic stuff not taken.
Anyway, while going thru this pile of stuff--that it turns out she had gotten out, not the thief, it showed she had bought an annuity from Gladstone. Not too much. But is this one of the fund of funds that invested in Madoff?
Haven't mentioned this to her. Thanks for any info. Will repost tomorrow.
Not much to do in Baltimore on xmas day.
Happy holidays everyone!!
Correction to prior post...
USAJOBS - The Federal Government's Official Jobs Site
Another source for govt. jobs
Change.gov: The Obama-Biden Transition Team | Apply for a job
Hey, the Feds can print money that they pay you. Can not say that for local and state govs.
For you 1099 ers, the Feds pay vacations, pensions, sick leave, etc. All those things that you left when you went independent. Positive, you do not have to pay both portions of the SS taxes...
Well, just trying to offer some how on the holidays...
bearly writes:
Jim Rogers shorting the long bond...
Bloomberg.com avp...pZqGFXZTDlM.asf
bearly |
I researched that this morning. He was but isn't anymore. He jumped in a couple months ago, got burned then got out. Said he'll short again but not sure when.
The hub may not get paid as much as some non-govt jobs, but he loves his work and the bennies are undeniable.
And he makes plenty for people with our lifestyle.
Err, that is Happy Winter Solstice!!
And Happy Saturnalia!!
Waiting to get hired. Hiring freeze in all hospitals in SF Bay Area.
Thouhgt I'd pop by to wish everybody a Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas.
I'm so full
Cameron Newland | Sorry, not found! | Cameron Newland thread music
LaweyerLiz:
You should research which "Gladstone" company the annuity is with.
Gladstone Investment - Profile
Thanks Kristina and all who wished my mom well. I'll be sure to tell her.
and, in response to a comment on a previous thread, a quadrillion here, a quadrillion there, as sooner or later, it adds up to real money!
Thanks Norka. I'll look in more detail.
lawyerliz,
If it doesn't work for your family, that's OK...I just believe that everyone should have a plan B, C, and D.
If you are worried about your job, its time to start searching for possible alternative jobs...
Just trying to help...
Hmmm anon? Did you mean me or someone else?
I work for myself.
I may fire myself to save $$$.
I could retire too.
My architect daughter is really worried about being laid off.
I may go from having an empty nest to a full house, but actually, no one really wants to move in with me.
LawyerLiz,
I am not sure if you are aware of it, however is looking to hire lawyers/need lawyers...
My prior comments was not meant to suggest that you were in a bind...It was a statement to the general audience...
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!!!
Who is?
To the Fed, Government Sachs and the connected Hedgie Mafia, a passing Christmas carol.
Motörhead - Doctor Rock
All right, all right
I hope you son of bitches see the light
You again, you again
I know you've got a mental age of ten
Listen up, listen up
I wouldn't swap you for a thousand bucks
Come on, you're the one
I think I'm going to switch your lazer on
Chorus
I've got the medicine you need
I've got the power, I've got the speed
I'll find out how to stop your clock
We sure ain't talking Doctor Spock
Hear me talking, Doctor Rock.
Lay down, turn around
Here come the sister gonna strip you down
Shut up, breathe in
Lets have the address of your next of kin
Chin up, shoulders back
You've got a body like a Marshall stack
Keep still, take your pill
Or I'm gonna make you really ill.
Chorus
Next please, next please
Try to separate those cowardly knees
X-ray, you've gotta pay
The only chance you've ever got of getting away
Here we are, what's the scar
I don't like anything I've seen so far
Pay me, pay me
I ain't no doctor of philosophy
YouTube - Motörhead - Doctor Rock
-
I am sorry to ruffle anyone's feathers...
I was under the belif that most posters/readers of this site felt that the future is not positive and that they can not be totally dependent on the government to come to the rescue...
Like Katrina, everyone must prepare what they anticipate will be an unmitigated disaster...
Forget my comments, obviously, I do not know what I am talking about...
Happy Holidays...
The hub in Fla has nothing to do and hence is reorganizing the pantry. He is bewildered at the number of cans I have stashed away.
He doesn't roll his eyes anymore, but also doesn't understand just how bad it can get.
My architect daughter is really worried about being laid off. - lawyerliz
My niece and her betrothed are both architects. She is (was?) in great demand for upscale trendy retail (think "Toxic" and the like) stores. Ruh roh.
Ahhh, number of visitors dropping off and Liz is bored. No place to eat even. Didn't want to tire my mom out too much.
Son is at hotel's gym. After tomorrow am, I really will be offline until I leave mom's house. Unless I find an internet cafe'. Maybe I will go to gym and walk on treadmill.
Blech.
The hub in Fla has nothing to do and hence is reorganizing the pantry. He is bewildered at the number of cans I have stashed away.
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 5:39 pm | #
Be careful of cans that bulge at the top and botton so they don't stand flat on the shelf.
Still has a job until year's end. Afraid her project will be cancelled.
Don't know what it is, but it is in Minnesota.
I know Norka, but thanks.
I hope the cans are tinfoil hat stuff, but who knows?
Glad to year your Mom is doing well Lawyerliz, that's great news. Sounds like she's a tough gal. We're busy chowing down Glazed Ham and Pineapple Stuffing right now,...
Ahhhhhhh, send some over the wires!!!
My appologies to the spirit of Tanta for all of the exclamation points!!
For those rare birds that are thinking:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzHGMaZvxvw&NR=1
"Pineapple Stuffing right now,...
Comrade Kristina"
Pineapple stuffing? Strange things you people eat in Florida. The prime rib is a cookin', and I'm hungry. Cheers.
The dollar failing as the reserve currency doesn't need a G20 agreement. The ramifications if this takes hold is tremendous for the US.
Dollardone | 12.25.08 - 3:03 pm | #
Best news I've heard in months if not YEARS. Get the yuan trading unpegged to the dollar and alot of the worst of the imbalances go away. That is truly a reason to be thankful this season - it would mark the beginning of the great 'dig out'.
Lawyerliz- Best to your mom. Years ago someone raided my grandmother's house when my aunt and uncle were gone, they took her jewelry, but left her alone thank god.
Agree that it's going to be rough as far as employment for most everybody. But rather than dwell on the probablility, hope that everyone decides on a plan of action for dealing with how they're going to feel about it or cope with it, if it happens.
I'm not in Fla, and I'm not eating anything at the moment.
Maybe some Chinese Buddhists who own a restaurant are open.
Any Baltimorons out there near Highlandtown.
She's at Hopkins, and even I have little to complain about.
Elvis, it's delicious. I found the recipe on the internet. It goes really well with ham and it's also great as a dessert. Basically like a pineapple bread pudding...
I have 3 close friends out of work and now my brother. Anyone's job can be wiped out in 2009. Keep your fingers crossed. Mine are. Good luck to all.
bearly | 12.25.08 - 4:24 pm | #
I'm already wondering how I can fit my son, his SO & their son in my basement. He's likely to be laid off this month even though he doesn't think so. Retail. I don't argue with him - just plan what comes next - that's what 'elders' are supposed to do. The lectures are way in the past - wasted air. Now it its time to be the 'adults'.
Wow - never thought it would come to this but it probably has.
Comrade Kristina,
Given what you are eating, this is an appropriate song from me to you.
YouTube - Elvis Presley
My daughter has had maybe 2-3 weeks of unemployment in her 16 post school years. She's very techy. An excellent architect, but hard to live with. Hope the Minnesotans will want to build the project.
My architect daughter is really worried about being laid off.
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 5:30 pm | #
My future son-in-law was RIFed last month - arch firm he worked for just imploded. Two senior partners decided to retire and the 'merged' with another 'residential' focused firm - my SIL's firm did CRE & though it hasn't been dead as long as RRE it's as dead now. He's early 20s - plenty of time to restart the career later.
He doesn't roll his eyes anymore, but also doesn't understand just how bad it can get.
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 5:39 pm | #
He'll learn. He's NASA right - just tell him you are making sure your family survival is triple redundant. He'll go 'Ahhh - I get it now.'
Who makes more money the architect or the structural engineers?
Don't know what it is, but it is in Minnesota.
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 5:46 pm | #
Roh roh. That is where my SIL is now - with us... not one opening on the AIA-MN website [no local work]. If the locals are starving the 'outsiders' will be too - soon.
dryfly
Friends brother was looking at Jobs in MN was warned about treatment of "outsiders". LawyerLiz hope she made some local friends...
"China has said it is to allow some trade with its neighbours to be settled with its currency, the yuan."
Dollardone | 12.25.08 - 3:03 pm | #
I believe that this is a forced adjustment for China. With currency volatility at present levels it is far too expensive if not almost impossible to do currency hedging. With China so dependent on foreign trade what options do they have but deal in their own currency?
However, the implications might still be profound. But as there are more and more backroom rumors of capital flight from China, it might actually lead to the surprising result that the Yuan might devalue vs. the dollar on a fundamental level.
-------------------------
Here is my favorite classical progressive rock band from Holland and a real exception at the time:
Ekseption Peace Planet
Ekseption Air
Wow - never thought it would come to this but it probably has.
dryfly | 12.25.08 - 6:00 pm | #
Was talking to my BIL (I'm in SLC for a white Christmas) who works for little company formed by Micron and Intel, and couldn't think of any reason the coming year should be better. Time to start potato farming with a vengeance?
Who makes more money the architect or the structural engineers?
Tim and the Xmas Miracle | 12.25.08 - 6:09 pm | #
Neither - bankers and the folks 'on commission' make all the money. Always have. That's as old as the pyramids.
Haven't the faintest idea.
Hahaha, dryfly.
He's very smart, but can only think of one thing at a time. I tried explaining to him how I like to have conversations with a buncha youse guys all at once, and he said, and you can keep track of them? And I said, welll, yeah. And text my son and girlfriend inbetween.
Yet his IQ is way higher, and I could never do Fourier analysis, or read books of equations, like he did when studing for his Phd orals. And he sez he's not any good at math.
I'm sure, in fact he told me, that he is picking up and looking at one can at a time very carefully. Glad I'm not there, I would be going insane.
He can't bluff and is terrible at poker, and terrible at investing in the stock mkt. Doesn't ask me either. doesn't take cues from what I say I'm doing.
Oh, well, strengths and weaknesses match up.
Dryfly who works "on comission" thanks
I believe that this is a forced adjustment for China. With currency volatility at present levels it is far too expensive if not almost impossible to do currency hedging. With China so dependent on foreign trade what options do they have but deal in their own currency?
However, the implications might still be profound. But as there are more and more backroom rumors of capital flight from China, it might actually lead to the surprising result that the Yuan might devalue vs. the dollar on a fundamental level.
RE | 12.25.08 - 6:13 pm | #
I agree with both points. They can't afford to peg anymore and they can't afford not to [need the trade surplus that ONLY a cheap yuan can guarantee]... sucks to be them and us.
Wonder how well Imhotep did, financially speaking. Actually, prolly pretty well.
yeah, she has local friends in Boston, which is Cat 3 rather than Cat 5 destruction as Fla is real estate-wise. But I don't think it's gonna do any good. No work at all is no work.
Time to look for a hub, maybe? Finally?
Update from Bay Area:
Looks like my wife's biotech is kaput in March. They are looking for another round of funding, fat chance of that happening. Her type of work is in demand (mix of software/biotech experience) but every other company that is interested in her also only has 4-5 months of cash on hand. No use changing jobs right now.
My company is about 10k employee. Just RIF'd a bunch of very high level people a few weeks ago. This last week they took a machete to their offshore presence throughout the company. Depending on the group anywhere from 80-90% gone. Another full-time RIF is coming in January in the full-time tech area. Not touching the customer facing positions, only the back-end/tech related positions. Looks like this could be a very bad year in the Bay Area, CA.
For the record my niece and her enfinanced are in Nebraska.
What I am seeing is a dispersion (some could call it an exurban diaspora) but the other side of the same coin is that economic shocks propagate far further (and faster) than anyone imagined. Hoocoodanode?
My mom was a secy for an architectual firm in Balto for 28 years, so checks the architectural want ads just for the heck of it, to see if her old firm or anyone else is hiring. No ads for architects or designers at all in the Balto Sun.
My daughter worked there one summer building models and they really liked her and let her be at a presentation of one of the models. Long time ago now.
Liz,
Just tuned in late here, but gather that your Mom is OK. Thank God.
Forgot to add, spoke to my sister in the UK today. She works for the government and has something to do with tracking unemployment in her region which is Yorkshire. She says it's looking awful from the tracking she is doing.
Yet his IQ is way higher, and I could never do Fourier analysis, or read books of equations, like he did when studing for his Phd orals. And he sez he's not any good at math.
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 6:15 pm | #
I went to college w/ a bunch of guys like him when in undergrad chem eng - I talked many of them into doing my homework when we studied at the student union together - meanwhile I would be debating the Socialists & Libertarians simultaneously - like here [LOL]. I KNOW my chem e buds were smarter than I was but they LOVED to see me lock horns w/ the ideologs and I was good at it so obliges & made a good show of it. My sis [she was a prosecutor at DOJ] always thought I should have been a lawyer too - maybe in my next life.
Sorry to hear about your Mom. Both my folks are gone now but my sisters & I did a lot of that stuff while they were alive. Enjoy them while you can even when frail - they go fast.
Pissed Off In California
What industry is your employer in?
Only a month and a half to the great TV revolution. Thats when millions wake up to find their drug of choice has been taken away.
Talked to the SIL today. She is a CRE attorney. October was absymal. Novemeber almost as bad. December picked up a little and January looks about the same.
[Looks like this could be a very bad year in the Bay Area, CA]
With unemployment already pushing 9% and the state government in shambles very bad might be an understatement. Yet home prices remain 2X-3X the national average. Until that untapped wealth is depleated, I don't see a rush to rescue...
Totally OT
Does the market trade up tomorrow ala black friday. I think so.
Tim and the Xmas Miracle,
Financial and one of the few that are making money.
[Chicomms] can't afford to peg anymore and they can't afford not to [need the trade surplus that ONLY a cheap yuan can guarantee]... sucks to be them and us. - dryfly
They need to hold their industrial revolution together long enough to cement an urban industrial and service economy.
Won't work. Worse, they won't see that it won't work until too late for us and them.
Time to look for a hub, maybe? Finally?
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 6:19 pm | #
If HE has a job - talk to my daughter about that [she is the one marrying a laid off architect]...
... but the other side of the same coin is that economic shocks propagate far further (and faster) than anyone imagined. Hoocoodanode?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 6:21 pm | #
Tru dat, RD.
The similarities between the Madoff scandal and the current TARP program are insidious.
Investors in Madoff's business knew it was too good to be true but went along to get the seemingly guaranteed high returns. American Taxpayers have been going along with the TARP and other programs due to a belief these actions will save the American economy. The worsening of the economy will show this to be another case of fraud and further erode confidence in the federal government. The final straw might be about to be plucked for the taxpayer.
PE Obama has rightfully been presented as a beacon of hope for America. A reinforcement of the "anything is possible in America" mentality. I offer the thought that should Obama fail in producing a "Hail Mary" pass in saving our economy and wasy of life then even more belief in the system will be lost. We need a lot of luck going forward.
They need to hold their industrial revolution together long enough to cement an urban industrial and service economy.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 6:29 pm | #
Until they have a social net Chinese will not consume they will save. I had an Uncle of my wife's die of a brain stroke last year in Beijing. Middle class so they could afford hospital and the cost of an ambulance. They were up on approx. the 10th floor of a high-rise. When the ambulance arrived they couldn't get a stretcher up so he had to walk down unaided after having just suffered a stroke, not the best thing I would think. Got him into the hospital and a lot of work required money under the table.
The poor are way worse off then the middle-class BTW. It will take years and a lot of money to create a proper social safety net in China.
Won't work. Worse, they won't see that it won't work until too late for us and them.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 6:29 pm | #
I agree. BTW I know some PE-owned US based mfgrs with plants in China - their whole reason to be there was a 'arbitrage' play. Build a facility in China when RMB was ~8 to the dollar... do business in RMB only [no taxable dollar exposure]... then sell when exchange rate goes to ~6-5 RMB to the dollar.
"What if the exchange rates go the other way?" dryfly asks... He get's the same look MBS securitizers gave when asked what happens when housing prices go down.
ot an architect, I hope. She had a boyfriend who lives in Colorado, who I think would want her back, who is an architect, but does a lot of things, including fighting fires in fire season.
But lives in tiny town in Colorado, and she's a city girl.
And I guess, it's like one of those chess masters who can do 20 games at a time with amateurs. For me, it is so simple and easy, I don't understand why it is hard for him. In fact, when the comments aren't coming thick and fast is when I text someone because I've gotten bored. Of course when I'm working, I'm annoyed that the threads are so long.
And thanks for Pavel's and everyone's best wishes, but my thought is that if glod had anything to do with it, it wouldn't have happened in the first place.
Unless it's glod's wish that I didn't have to spend Christmas looking at cans. . . Not that I would have done that anyway.
Liz,
It's an old chestnut by now but I still like it: If you want to make God laugh, tell Him your plans.
The issues you raise are deep ones, but extremely off-topic here.
I'm glad she's OK.
but does a lot of things, including fighting fires in fire season.
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 6:36 pm | #
Recession proof - knew some who have done that then skied all winter. Great gig - tell her to reconsider that one.
But lives in tiny town in Colorado, and she's a city girl.
Depends on 'where'... there are some very 'cosmopolitan' little towns in Colarado... especially near the ski hotspots (Telluride, Aspen, Steamboat, 'A' Basin, etc.) Been there - too rich for my blood.
lawyerliz,
Sorry to hear about your mother. The same thing happened to my best-friends mother. Luckily she's better now.
For the Ch commenters, you have varieties of good points, but the basic point is whether it's going to work.
I'm not convinced.
C
"Depends on 'where'... there are some very 'cosmopolitan' little towns in Colarado... especially near the ski hotspots (Telluride, Aspen, Steamboat, 'A' Basin, etc.) Been there - too rich for my blood."
Just stay off the eastern plains. Colorado has some amazing small towns that most people would jump at a chance to live and work in. Problem is there are no beaches. That is why I prefer Tahiti.
I know some PE-owned US based mfgrs with plants in China - their whole reason to be there was a 'arbitrage' play. Build a facility in China when RMB was ~8 to the dollar... do business in RMB only [no taxable dollar exposure]... then sell when exchange rate goes to ~6-5 RMB to the dollar.
Their insane moment was in assuming that a manipulated (okay, controlled) currency/economy would turn into a convertible currency and market economy.
We see now that 6 RMB or lower means internal collapse. Unfortunately 8 RMB means tying oneself to a boat anchor. They were so stupid to think a basket currency would emerge rationally.
Sure a basket could develop (I opine no) but regardless of my opinion only after the old exchange metrics fail. Give the Chicomm masters that much credit. The cost of fail is still far larger than the cost of support.
"What if the exchange rates go the other way?" dryfly asks... He get's the same look MBS securitizers gave when asked what happens when housing prices go down.
dryfly
People keep accusing me of being deep. Actually, I am very literal, and I expect that I would not understand a glod, but that there are basic minimum standards any glod would have. The part of the universe I inhabit doesn't come up to any reasonable glod-standard.
And nothing is OT on Xmas evening. And what the heck are you doing on here anyway, Pavel? Why aren't you singing carols with the fambly. Which was what I was planning to do. I especially like O Holy Nite, tho I'm sure I sound like a banshee singing it.
I like carols & cathedrals, & a lot of religious art & also yoga and other stuff that came from religion. I also like tearing religous systems apart. Alas, it is not good for my soul to try to even listen to a sermon, 'cause I just tear it apart logically in terms of the belief-system that the preacher has. Preachers of all stripes are very illogical and generally don't know their own belief system very well. I like some one on the other side more challenging usually,
Colorado has some amazing small towns that most people would jump at a chance to live and work in. Problem is there are no beaches.
Ahhh, finally an investment idea whose time has come, let's build a beach in Colorado.
Just stay off the eastern plains.
Elvis | 12.25.08 - 6:44 pm | #
Like Sterling CO. A buddy and I spent the better part of two days trying to get a ride outta there hitch hiking in the late 70s. Been back there since - only difference is now they got WalMart.
"Like Sterling CO."
There are much worse places than Sterling and that is saying something. I've spent some time there before. That is why I prefer Tahiti.
Town is . . . Butte. Don't wanna spill the beans in case someone is from there. could surely figure out who he is.
And nothing is OT on Xmas evening. And what the heck are you doing on here anyway, Pavel? Why aren't you singing carols with the fambly.
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 6:46 pm | #
My fambly is watching Momma Mia in the other room... so I disapeared into my office with some cheap brandy.
[Looks like this could be a very bad year in the Bay Area, CA]
Yet home prices remain 2X-3X the national average. Until that untapped wealth is depleated, I don't see a rush to rescue...
So, bearly, you're saying there will be no significant bailout for CA from the Feds until Prop 13 is revoked?
"People keep accusing me of being deep."
Dear Liz,
I can't get into the questions you raise, because it would be an OT imposition on everyone here.
You're always welcome to contact me.
here are much worse places than Sterling
Elvis | 12.25.08 - 6:51 pm | #
I know...
"Town is . . . Butte. Don't wanna spill the beans in case someone is from there. could surely figure out who he is.
lawyerliz"
Crested Butte is worth working as a season fire fighter to augment the income. Gorgeous. Backside of Aspen.
Liz, Merry Christmas.
Have you tried to dial up for a pizza?
Loooong time lurker, I like your posts.
Best to your and yours.
P.S. Loved the last one
lawyerliz writes:
People keep accusing me of being deep...
Commenting on the lack of "ugly people" at the mall doesn't strike me as being deep. Strikes me as being shallow.
Hey other guys, is Pavel & my discussion something that you are/are not interested in.
I see the core addicts are here, including Fair.
Hi, Fair.
Liz - good luck with your mom. My sister 'dropped' my dad's issues in my lap last summer. Oy vey.
USC US-China Institute "talking points"
This is from the USC US- China Institute. You can sign up for free weekly emails.
Some highlights (their bold):
This past weekend officials hammered out a plan to allow Taiwan banks to enter the Chinese market. Chinese officials also expressed concern about the impact of the economic downturn on cross-strait investors. To aid them in weathering the storm, the Chinese government will loan up to $19 billion to Taiwan businesses operating in China.
In recent years, China's population has been growing at 0.6-0.8%/year. Chinese officials estimate the drop means that the country avoided having more than 200 million additional people to provide for. ... This birth gap will exacerbate the difficulties men in poorer areas have in finding wives. Even more serious than this problem, however, is the demographic squeeze that lies ahead. In two decades, China will have more than 300 million people over age 60. How can a single child support two parents and four grandparents?
Glod, my ugly people comment will never be foregotten. Said I wasn't gonna comment further. But ya know, I did mean ugly on the outside, not the inside. Like Madoff. I'd much rather be one of the poor, ugly ones rather than Madoff.
Thanks Leigh. And Elvis, you would out me, wouldn't you?
By the way, it's warm here so far, and I wouldn't have needed the warm stuff--yet.
Exit--they can't. And too many of those people will be male. Ripe for being killed off. . .
Sigh.
I missed the comment on ugly people - but I'm with you.
My most precious aunt is...er...considered (politely) homely to those who do not know her.
Once that famous smile crosses her face and the diamonds of her eyes light up, it's all one can feel of the sheer love of her being.
True ugly IS on the inside. Period.
Oh, well, lawyerliz brightens up. Maybe they will legalize polyandry. I always thought a woman could deal with (in all ways) several hubs better than a man with several wives. . .
Women of the US: import young Chinese trophy husbands!!! We will all be very much happier.
And remember Ben Franklin's comment: we will be very grateful.!!
Jeebus, just had a fragment of a freaky vision. Have not had one in quite awhile.
I was coming in from taking out the trash, and was walking down the street in front of the house. The street (semi-residential) switched to a different scene and there were people walking down the middle of a road.
I could hear a women complaining, and other voices in the background.
I knew they were cold, tired, homeless, and hungry. Going where? I have no idea.
How can a single child support two parents and four grandparents?
Exit | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 6:55 pm | #
I think it would be smart to start trying to figure out this little riddle. Our path to continued growth via population growth might very well not be sustainable on many, many levels. The Chinese have particularly good insight into that proposition.
LOL LL
Must...have...CR....fix....
But the economy is everywhere this Christmas. Seems to creep into every table discussion. So I'm drawn here while in digestive torpor. We are supposed to have 3 Christmas dinners today! All the grandmothers insist on cooking (there's been a divorce and remarriage so there's a third). The third is in a foul humor right now because nobody wants to eat her food. It's good but everybody already feels sick!
I keep telling everybody - slacking is the secret to Christmas joy - but nobody listens.
I thought LL's "ugly people" comment was on target. Looks, to the standard demanded in our society, require money for all but a few of the most fortunate. Braces, manicures, hair styling, increasingly at least some plastic surgery - it adds up. Plus, clothes influence opinions of looks even though they don't really change them. Poor people look like people really do which in this society is "ugly".
How can a single child support two parents and four grandparents?
Exit | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 6:55 pm | #
I think it would be smart to start trying to figure out this little riddle. Our path to continued growth via population growth might very well not be sustainable on many, many levels. The Chinese have particularly good insight into that proposition.
RE | 12.25.08 - 7:05 pm | #
China desperately needs to create a proper social safety net. This is the long term solution. One very over-looked issue also is how spoiled children have become since the one child policy was implemented. I have seen the difference between how the Chinese of my wife's generation (pre one-child policy) treat their parents versus the children born post one-child policy. There has been a significant break-down in the family social fabric in China and children do not take care of their parents anywhere close to the level that used to happen. I was also struck how few older people live in Beijing now when I visited in 2005.
Liz - youse?
Pittsburgh?
Talked to my ninety-one year old grams today (we talk almost everyday).
The 'burg brogue slips into the spoken lingo.
Hubby teases me, and I quickly reform!
I have gotten stuck in few places trying to hitch a ride out. Me and a buddy got stuck in some little town in NM in 71. They would not give us water. Had to get our water from the gas station. All they would let us have is the water by the pumps. 2 days and hotter than hell.
RE, POIC - that's a direct quote from US-China Institute link that I put up.
pavel-
that little snippet about god and plans was awesome.
enjoy your take on things, keep it up.
merry christmas everyone, from one of the silent majority (the lurkers)....
ova--was the street scene your street, or somewhere else? I'd love to hear about your other visions.
I of course, am naturally beautiful, except, errr, I would not have nice looking teeth without dentristry!! Not to mention being a health food and vitamin fanatic.
I remember reading this thing advertising something to do with teeth to 17th (?) century aristocrats, which assumed they'd have few to no teeth. Queen Elizabeth the First wasn't so great in the tooth area, right? Also, seems I read something about aristocratic girls not being allowed to smile too much so as not to display their tooth situation.
Baltimore. actually, they don't say youse here to much.
Which to me is a perfectly valid, needed form of plural you, which English desperately needs, other bastard forms being youguys and y'all.
They do say zink instead of sink and some weird way of saying accelerate, which I now forget.
LL, I think it was my street.
Driving down I-66 into DC we spotted a very nice igloo tent next to the fence. It was tucked in the woods behind some million dollar homes.
I think I should now seek take out, before my son disowns me. He went to go exercise a while ago, and must be muscle bound by now.
Yeah, I'm an only child (actually I have a half sister I never met), and my friends were always saying I was spoiled when I was a kid. I never thought so!!
China desperately needs to create a proper social safety net. This is the long term solution. One very over-looked issue also is how spoiled children have become since the one child policy was implemented. I have seen the difference between how the Chinese of my wife's generation (pre one-child policy) treat their parents versus the children born post one-child policy. There has been a significant break-down in the family social fabric in China and children do not take care of their parents anywhere close to the level that used to happen. I was also struck how few older people live in Beijing now when I visited in 2005.
Pissed Off In California
I remember reading about women in China drowing female infants several decades ago after the implementation of one child policy.
Any current male vs female population demographics are much appreciated.
Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Japans industrial production fell the most in at least five years in November after exports dropped by a record.
Factory output tumbled 8.1 percent from October, when it dropped 3.1 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 6.8 percent decline.
Did anyone ever see Big Trouble? It was set in Miami, and featured a guy who lived in one of those huge, many rooted banyan/ficus trees in the back of someone's yard. It was never released in the movies because it ended with a nuclear explosion (under water) and was supposed to come out around 9/11. The scenes of the tree are quite authentic and I could show you guys exactly where it is in coconut Grove.
I hear that there are people living in the woods in Brevard County. At least it doesn't got so cold here so much.
Same thing is true in India to a certain extent.
Nobody responded to my polyandry suggestion.
Nobody wants to contemplate multiple husbands?
Apparel, Luxury
From Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, womens clothing sales dropped 23 percent and mens fell 14 percent, according to SpendingPulse.
Combined electronics and appliance sales tumbled 27 percent, with purchases over $1,000 suffering the most, according to SpendingPulse data. Luxury sales, including jewelry, plunged 35 percent, the data showed.
Purchases over the Internet fared better, with a 2.3 percent decline. E-commerce may have been helped by inclement weather at the end of the holiday shopping season, McNamara said. Historically Web sales have posted 15 percent to 20 percent year- over-year sales gains.
The SpendingPulse data service calculates its sales estimates based on MasterCard Inc. network transactions and adjusts for cash, checks and other payment forms. MasterCard is the worlds second-biggest credit-card company.
RE writes:
How can a single child support two parents and four grandparents?
Its called war!!!
The old, the fighting age and the young die...
Its called a population decline...
I understand that Europe had a Renaissance after the Black Plague had run its course...
Which reminds me, where is Jas? He hasn't checked in with the other hard cores. Guess he isn't dopey.
LL - I have a loving one, and I wouldn't trade him for the world.
Good men (and women) are hard to come by in my experience.
Why bite off more than I can chew?
Or for that matter, er...well, you know.
Holiday greetings from Berlin to my CR family (XMas is called "Silvester" here... hard not to think of a cat for those of us raised on American cartoons).
Not sure if there was really a topic to be OT from, but the theme we seem to keep returning to is unemployment. From where I sit, things are already looking ugly: one brother-in-law (computer IT) has already lost his job, and two other major family breadwinners are in large corporations that have announced they will be having 10K+ layoffs in the upcoming year. Not pretty. (Laid off BIL immediately got socked with a COBRA bill larger than his mortgage.)
Unemployment is key to understanding China, also: they're trying to figure out what's going to happen when people return after Chinese New Year from their visits to the countryside to cities where their jobs may no longer exist. So I'm looking at March as being the month where the sht should hit the fn. In the end, they'd be happy to write off all our crappy paper if they could just keep these people employed and not rioting, I think.
But that's the future. For now, let me pass on my best wishes to all of you on a cold XMas night! (And if Santa left synthetic collateralized CMOs in your stocking, that's not a good sign... at least coal would have heating value!)
The issue of "growth" is central to any economic discussion, isn't it?
For example, what exactly is "sustainable growth"?
I will offer that "unsustainable growth" is another term for the various bubbles we're so fond of decrying. Yet the concept of sustainable growth underpins corporate quarterly results, and the resultant fluctuations in equity prices as traded on the bourses when growth is not sustained. Isn't the graph "supposed" to always incline up?
Malthus had something to say about this idea - and just look at CR's superlative graphs.
Human population and economic growth come at a certain price. From where does the biomass that currently comprises the "being" part of human beings derive? And isn't it the extraction, processing, and delivery of said biomass definitionally, "the economy"?
Liz- I think you could sometimes post as Polly Andree and those of us reading today would get your joke.
Nobody wants to contemplate multiple husbands?
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 7:29 pm | #
Beats polygamy - I can't deal with the honey do list I got now. Polyandry has some merit. Maybe with some help we'd getterdone. Then there'd be more time to watch hockey, drink and blog.
Yep, and the Black Plague caused a lot of doubts about the beneficience of glod.
Unfortunately this required that dying thing and it came back every decade or 2 for literally centuries.
After about 50 years the laborers had it good money wise, and continued to do so for quite a while. And equality increased, relatively. The rich got poorer.
But I dunno. If the design was intelligent, this reproduction thing would not be exponential on a finite earth.
Beat the speed of light barrier anyone? Colonize other planets?
And the death rate had to stay high.
I understand that Europe had a Renaissance after the Black Plague had run its course...
It was great for the working class and helped destroy serfdom. There was inflation for a generation or three I think. It also helped destroy belief in the Church
LL: Maybe some Chinese Buddhists who own a restaurant are open.
LOL you don't have to be Jewish to enjoy Chinese food on Christmas.
Re Yuan trading, more Hong Kong banks will be allowed a larger scope of RMB business in the coming year. The door to a more open capital account has been creaking open for some time. But totally agree that the Chinese monetary authorities are really in a bind, and dollar questions are forcing the issue.
That said, I'm not sure what regional traders who sell into China will do w/ RMB until it's a truly convertable international currency.
Unemployment plans...
We moved here (Bay Area) a year ago to keep my job, sold house in Maryland but don't have enough money to buy another one here. Wouldn't want to borrow too much in case of sudden unemployment.
My sister suggests we move in with her, she and BIL own their house outright. My thought was to buy a house in low cost area, but we could live with them and share expenses.
Hahahahah.
There is a man or 2 out there who would have made a suitable 2nd hub. But never a first.
Beware the ides of March!!
Re: March
Are there any hedge funds left ungated? If so, then March will be the next opening for redemption requests... CHA-CHING!
WARSAW (Reuters) - A Polish man got the shock of his life when he visited a brothel and spotted his wife among the establishment's employees. Polish tabloid Super Express said the woman had been making some extra money on the side while telling her husband she worked at a store in a nearby town. "I was dumfounded. I thought I was dreaming," the husband told the newspaper on Wednesday. The couple, married for 14 years, are now divorcing, the newspaper reported. (Writing by Chris Borowski, Editing by Matthew Jones)
Beware the ides of March. . .
Cesar was told more than once right??
Adios muchachas and muchachos.
So what was HE Doing visiting a brothel, hunh? Was he spending some of the money SHE made?
Sorry, couldn't resist.
Is borrowed growth actually growth? From Denninger:
Let's take GDP over a longer period of time - say, 10 years, and make a law that says there is no credit to be extended. That is, you pay cash or you don't buy. We add up all the output for the entire 10 year period and put it in a bucket.
That's the total output of the economy over the entire ten year period, along with all the productivity that enabled it.
Now let's add credit to the system. What happens?
Some people will immediately "pull from forward earnings" via credit. That is, they will purchase a TV they want today with earnings that they believe they will have tomorrow.
This is the old "Wimpie" game from the Popeye cartoons - "I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today!"
Now, here's the question - has the addition of credit actually added to GDP, or just shifted in time when the GDP is recorded?
If - and only if - the credit extended is used for the purpose of producing additional output, then it is a net additive to GDP.
If a farmer has 100 acres of land but only enough money to buy seed for 50 of those acres, his employment of credit to buy the other 50 acres worth of seed increases net GDP because he is using that credit line for the explicit purpose of increasing the net output of his labor. The credit extended to him is liquidated when the additional output is produced, but the output (less the cost of the credit) remains.
When credit is used in this fashion the debt-to-GDP ratio falls because the amount of debt outstanding remains the same or declines while the GDP increases.
If you instead consume, however, you have only performed a time shift on demand, not added to actual demand. In fact due to interest cost you have shrunk the total (long-term) demand that exists in the economy because interest does not accreate to GDP.
We all recognize Wimpy from the Popeye Cartoons as a scam; why is it that we don't recognize that what Bernanke is attempting to do is precisely the same damn thing and demand that he stop it!
If you look at the GDP over a long enough period of time, this becomes obvious and indisputable - that which is demanded today isn't necessary tomorrow, and there is no long-term salutary impact on the economy.
The third condition is when debt-to-GDP expands dramatically, as it has been now for the last 30 years. In this case credit is being used to both pull forward demand and to pay the interest on previously-extended credit!
This latter case is insanely destructive when maintained over a long period of time, because there is a natural limit beyond which credit cannot be expanded nor can demand be pulled forward.
At some point the people have all the cars, IPods and flatscreen TVs they need, and their want for additional consumption becomes tempered by the pain of the debt service that came with "pulling forward" from an infinite future horizon.
and their want for additional consumption becomes tempered by the pain of the debt service that came with "pulling forward" from an infinite future horizon.
Anonymous | 12.25.08 - 7:43 pm
And when that future horizon looks bleak you have a recessio
happy holidays to everyone at CR
And when that future horizon looks bleak you have a recession
nova
Best case
March, whatever. Late January, February... whatever. Why do people think the "market" will wait that long? Do you think countries are just gonna sit there until they are backed into a corner?
It seems like right now America is showing everyone their hand. So what if we are winning the nickel and dime pots. At some point the other countries are going to start to clean up.
Do you want a case in point? In the 1980s when Russia was mired in a war, America funded the opposition. Would it be that surprising for China (or some other country we think of as an ally; maybe a country that supplied a majority of the 9/11 hijackers flush with dollars).... okay.
Would it be surprising if China or Russia or other country flush with dollars (or Euro's) started funneling support to the opposition in a place like Afghanistan? Johnny Jihad and his sympathizers would be dumb enough to accept payment in dollars....
YLSP writes:
March, whatever. Late January, February... whatever. Why do people think the "market" will wait that long? Do you think countries are just gonna sit there until they are backed into a corner?
All I said was March keeps coming up in discussions. Unfortunately I don't know how long the market or other counntries will wait. If I did, I wouldn't be here.
Russian Federation is too vulnerable to the same game. China. No, but I do see them trying to buy Africa.
Trying to analyze the "real" effect of credit gets into incredibly complicated and very speculative issues of how to time-discount utility and even nastier issues of expectations of time-discounted utility. The primary driver of growth is difficult-to-explain improvements in efficiency, so at least to a first order adding credit, which allows using more capital for more production, doesn't increase production much. It could produce utility improvements, but as I mentioned above those are very difficult to estimate even in theory, never mind practice.
However, widespread credit permits highly destructive mistakes if future production is over- or under-estimated. I think the problem with a highly leveraged society is not that leverage per se is a problem but that leverage magnifies mistakes about predicting the future and causes them to produce more bad actions today.
Retail sales got walloped in Dec: down 8% from last year
up to Christmas. 4% if you exclude gasoline. Given that YoY inflation is still positive (3%+ in November) those are really grim numbers. I can't find historical records by just poking around but I think that's worse than the 80's recessions.
Thanks, nullpointer. A blessed
Christmas to you.
"Retailers went from 'Ho-ho' to 'Uh-oh' to 'Oh-no.'"
Another Pig related post:
The current financial debacle is really not a liquidity crisis as it is often euphemistically called. It is a crisis of overgrowth of financial assets relative to growth of real wealthpretty much the opposite of too little liquidity. Financial assets have grown by a large multiple of the real economypaper exchanging for paper is now 20 times greater than exchanges of paper for real commodities. It should be no surprise that the relative value of the vastly more abundant financial assets has fallen in terms of real assets. Real wealth is concrete; financial assets are abstractionsexisting real wealth carries a lien on it in the amount of future debt. The value of present real wealth is no longer sufficient to serve as a lien to guarantee the exploding debt. Consequently the debt is being devalued in terms of existing wealth. No one any longer is eager to trade real present wealth for debt even at high interest rates. This is because the debt is worth much less, not because there is not enough money or credit, or because banks are not lending to each other as commentators often say.
Can the economy grow fast enough in real terms to redeem the massive increase in debt? In a word, no. As Frederick Soddy (1926 Nobel Laureate chemist and underground economist) pointed out long ago, you cannot permanently pit an absurd human convention, such as the spontaneous increment of debt [compound interest] against the natural law of the spontaneous decrement of wealth [entropy]. The population of negative pigs (debt) can grow without limit since it is merely a number; the population of positive pigs (real wealth) faces severe physical constraints. The dawning realization that Soddys common sense was right, even though no one publicly admits it, is what underlies the crisis. The problem is not too little liquidity, but too many negative pigs growing too fast relative to the limited number of positive pigs whose growth is constrained by their digestive tracts, their gestation period, and places to put pigpens. Also there are too many two‐legged Wall Street pigs, but that is another matter.
"What we lose between Thanksgiving and Christmas, we think we gain between Christmas and New Year's," said Jeff Maynard, the head of marketing at Circuit City, which has been advertising Blu-Ray discs for $12.99 this week and unveiled a fresh round of post-Christmas sales Thursday.
Quoting a Circuit City exec. who says "we think" doesn't inspire confidence
Russia's flexible ruble and other matters:
Medvedev: we will fight to defend interests
| Reuters
lawyerliz(Excellent) writes:
Nobody responded to my polyandry suggestion.
Nobody wants to contemplate multiple husbands?
Married girls are awesome.
Married girls don't follow you home.
Just stay married to the one. You're much more attractive that way. =)
Whatever that means.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
Whatever that means.
Don't date a lot of married girls, I guess.
Anonymous - you assume the continuity of behavior. IMHO, it just won't happen. New paradigm.
C
Santa Claus Bailout Hearings
Santa Claus Bailout Hearings
Merry Christmas everyone,
I opened my gift today and lo and behold it was a pair of copper socks, made in...wait for it...the US of A. Ah, ye Americans and ye'er ingenuity. What will ye think of next?
As expected, Hitler was also caught in the worldwide real estate collapse, (or, in German, "Der Untergang.") Here is a video of the whole sad story, and I believe it's the funniest You Tube video
you'll see this year.
Season's greetings!
Counterpointer(Excellent) writes:
For the Ch commenters, you have varieties of good points, but the basic point is whether it's going to work.
I'm not convinced.
I don't think there's anyone here in the marketplace of ideas "taking the other side on the trade".
This has been in the cards since the US decided to print money and the Chinese decided to go along with it to capitalize their economy.
Neither side could have made it this far into bubble-land without the exogenous improbabilities the other partner's bubble provided.
Interesting pheonomenon.
Sterling..., ah yes.
The I-76 run. I have done this many times doing the MN to Colorado run. That stretch just inside the Colorado border is one of the bleakest roads I've ever been on in my life. After traversing Nebraska, I'd always think, "well, now I"m in colorful Colorado, home free." Then, it would be three more hours until anything resembling classic Colorado landscape. Scrub brush, brown everywhere and can barely see the Rockies out the passenger window.
I've been on this road in bad winter weather, and can remember having to follow a U.S. mail semi at higher speed than I was comfortable with in my FWD Camry, if only not to lose the road. Scary.
I fly now.
lawyerliz(Excellent) writes:
Nobody responded to my polyandry suggestion.
Nobody wants to contemplate multiple husbands?
I'd see if my wife would go with Fair Economist and spouse,...if they would.
sdtfs - LOL
Just think - LL has three husbands and decides to divorce Messrs. Cerberus. Then gets alimony from each of them. Hey, Liz, it was YOUR idea! And would they have to draw straws for, you know......
the remote control?
El Cliffo,
An earlier video portrayed H.C. as A.H. using same clip. Even though I don't speak Deutsche, I recognize surnames trying to pass off as words like "credit" in the subs - kinda ruins it for me. Plus I already knew the ending.
We are as we always have been.
The rich know the rules don't apply to them.
The poor know the rules are installed for them.
The middle class moves on as though the rules are the fabric of a nation.
If we have not moved yet I can only fathom what will cause us to rebel.
We are a nation of frauds.
Merry Xmas. I can only pray it doesn't get worse than this fantasy.
[A Polish man got the shock of his life when he visited a brothel and spotted his wife among the establishment's employees]
So, it doesn't say - Did she offer him a family discount?
sdtfs, I'm very flattered, but my husband is relatively conservative about such things. We want children, and one of his unmarried female friends wanted to have a child by him and possibly live with us. I was fine, even if she only had his children and not mine, but he nixed it.
Plus, of course, we're both American so it doesn't help the oversupply of Chinese and Indian men at all.
My understanding is that polyandrous relationships are problematic because the men get too jealous. Although I have to say a high adult-child ratio makes raising children easier in my limited experience.
bearly - here, you need this
El Cliffo,
More funny was seeing that Hitler was a Cowboy's fan.
I'm sorry, that video is so old to me its kind've laughable. Did you know Paris Hilton made a sex tape? Ever see the Star Wars Kid? Familiar with the "Numa, Numa" guy?
Sorry, I kid, I kid, I kid... I'm sure your kids could point you in the direction of more side-splitting stuff. I don't think its too far of a guess to say you aren't part of the Internet Generation where these videos are posted even in the niche news sites we visit...
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zAjPAVxF5I>This video (Trampoline Basketball) is probably more sad than funny... warning, pain is coming
Most likely if it's more than a month, most people have already seen it and had it sent to them 100 times...
(XMas is called "Silvester" here... hard not to think of a cat for those of us raised on American cartoons
DCRogers | 12.25.08 - 7:34 pm | #
I don't think that you understood that correctly. In Germany, Silvester is not a cat but it is New Years.
bearly writes:
So, it doesn't say - Did she offer him a family discount?
She has fulfilled her obligations under their centuries old 'some-sex' law.
Well, sorry, I can't unpost the clip. But it's not my fault. You should have had your CR Companion switched on, with the hipness filter turned up.
Retail sales got walloped in Dec: down 8% from last year up to Christmas. 4% if you exclude gasoline. Given that YoY inflation is still positive (3%+ in November) those are really grim numbers. I can't find historical records by just poking around but I think that's worse than the 80's recessions.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 8:21 pm | #
My son works in retail at Mall Of America - he said his store was something like 10% ahead of plan (a rolling forecast) as late as September... as of the day before Christmas he said the store was now down 30% off their plan. Only good thing he can say is they were still better than most other stores in his district and they cut head count early (before the bottom had fallen out) so at least had a chance to remain cash flow positive. But they will need to cut again - assuming they stay open.
And compared to my recollection - this doesn't feel 80s like - not yet. Wait until we get tumbleweeds growing through cracks in the pavement at abandoned strip malls & factories - I literally saw that in the 80s at more than a few places.
Illegal Aliens Took Out 5 Million Fraudulent Mortgages?--
Mortgage Buy Home
Merry Christmas!
Fair Economist(Unrated) writes:
My understanding is that polyandrous relationships are problematic because the men get too jealous.
You have to have boys who are genuinely poly -- no arguments about what it takes to "get there" -- and there has to be very open communication and no status fear.
If you start playing stupid boudoir / relationship power games you can wreck it very fast but that is true of any relationship.
Set the Controls for the Heart of the Sun
youtube answer
My pawnshop was down 17% in sales ( We do 95% Jewelry and Custom Design ). Most sales where people coming in wanting something made or modified .Any Jewelry store that doesn't do in house jewelry work(service ) was killed this Xmas . I had Reed's jewelry store call us about buying used cases and safes.Christian Bernard ( another mall jewelry store )laid off sales staff on Sunday before Xmas . In the past Christmas help was paid to stay till the first a bonus. Located in Norfolk Virginia .
My hipness filter goes to 11, but then I only see my own posts... you might know my neighbor, Clark Griswold? He's the jerk that gets my apartment raided by SWAT teams every Christmas...
Sorry... somewhat of a digital pet-peeve of mine.
Grantchester Meadows
YouTube - Pink Floyd Grantchester Meadows - Extended Edition
bearly writes:
Brother just got word this week his job is history. He's a city engineer working for a CA municipality, on contract. Contract terminated and his services no longer needed by the agency. I am ready to tip over some desks.
No way CA can repeat that last bond sale stick-save with this growing and now 42 $BIL problem, and which national taxpayers will be, once again, ignored, then lied to and then robbed in the latest, ill-fated guarantee attempt? I'll be curious how the fed adapts from postponing the consequences of major credit events to dealing with a cash-crunch event. Maybe they'll bring back the Bank of California.
Scratch the desk reference.
Doc at the Radar Station -
Do you know George?
Niceville?
Good ta see ya.
Dang halosca
Hey! Imagine if every couple in america just exchanged money for "services rendered"?
We could add 30% to GDP... I'm not sure, but it could easily be $1000/week at 100M couples or $5T/yr.
But all of us married folks would have to go to jail :^(
I (and many others) would be unwilling to pay Brutus for his "services" and then GDP would plummet.
So what was HE Doing visiting a brothel, hunh? Was he spending some of the money SHE made?
Sorry, couldn't resist.
\t lawyerliz | \t \t \t \t12.25.08 - 7:43 pm
Long live Mortimer and Morticia! (in a completely non-canonical way, of course)