Dryfly mentioned tumbledweeds at the end of the last thread. Kinda like that here Christmas day!
CR - Not much chance of hiking today, though I did take my boys to DP harbor and kicked the sand a bit. The older one got a telescope from a friend, so we're making plans to visit Joshua Tree in the spring.
bad news -- just wait for January - 12 months ago it was gift cards (sold in December 2007) that goosed January 2008 retail sales - Gift card sales this December a disaster = January 2009 retail sales >(-4%)
I have never understood, until now, just how cut-throat retail is. I mean, if my household loses 5% of its incoming money, we would be fine. Seems if a retail chain does the same, liquidation or bankruptcy occurs.
Exit, have fun at Joshua Tree. Pick a night with a new moon ... we didn't camp in the campgrounds - instead we backpacked in from a bulletin board. Pretty nice being in the middle of the desert with no one around!
"This will go down as the one of the worst holiday sales seasons on record"
Records are meant to be broken. Wait 'till next year...
Maybe they cant get TARP money, but retailers want help, too. Another bailout??
"The country's largest retail trade association asked President-elect Barack Obama Tuesday to add a series of sales tax-exempt shopping days to a coming economic stimulus package in an effort to revive consumer confidence and spur spending."
Nick, very few analysts get this for '09. Now expand that thought to almost all industries.
When you're done:
Think Exxon and USD 390 billion market cap. Will they and other majors make a profit at 25 dollar oil?
Will S&P500 have positive earnings in 2009? Or will the current forecast of $75 per share prevail?
....."tax-exempt" shopping days will just add to spending discipline. Anything costing BIG BUCKS will just get delayed until a NO-TAXES day comes up (or at least so the thinking will be). After the initial "I want it" emotion goes away, the expenditure then just doesn't happen.
I think many so-called experts AND retail underestimate the powers of "new found frugal Americans". It might be a very sad lesson for retail, financial analysts, government, and any other sectors requiring increased spending to supplement existing fiscal shortages.
Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you. I have learned so much by lurking this past year and a half. You and Tanta, well, you know. I've been thinking of her the past few days a lot as I crawl around Madison and try not to slide into a snow bank (snowiest Dec on record...need to hide the sharp objects soon...). It was quite fitting to learn she spent a fair bit of time here. The humor and grit and intellectual rigor...well, dryfly understands the whole midwestern thing. I married into it, and learn more every day.
Retail, even here, has been noticeably slower. And we're somewhat insulated between the UW, the state govt., and all the ag, biomedical and energy research going on. Never had the RE boom either (at least compared with the coasts).
Pissed Off In California
Why don't we play the how CNBS will spin the numbers game?
Bobble head speaking to Bobble head
"there is a silver lining in all of this, the more the retailers discount prices the more the consumer will buy, just like in the housing market with the increase in foreclosure sales ... and once Barock Obama brings in his stimulus plan I think we could see this market really start to turn around"
I wonder how many Americans visited elderly family today, complained about this n that, and then listened to Gramps or Granny or Uncle Festus talk about how things were back during GD1, or during WW2.
Stories of sacrifice, want, hardship, conservation, saving, walking, making do.
And despite the Lakers game on hi-def, wondered for the first time - is this REAL? Then turned and looked in the eyes of their forebears and for the first time, understood.
Yes.
And maybe - maybe - there's a way through it.
One of my favorite curmudgeonly quotes from Churchill - "If you're going through Hell - keep going."
"Market has retail sales off by 75% so it all priced in. This is good for a 2000 point gain tomorrow."
That definitely will cause a big jump. CNBC analyst explains 2000 point gain because market is pricing in a bottom in sales price of retail items and a bottom in the maximum amount retailers will lose for each item they sell during Christmas.
"There's good news in the belt-tightening of America this Christmas, as families across America give abject lessons in "bah-humbugging", "coal in stocking" attitudes, and squirrel soup preparation and instincts."
Just finished an experiment in using Amazon and some other online sites for purchasing woodworking equipment. I was looking to buy a machine and associated tooling for about 500 dollars -- not using a credit card or bank transfer. You know, by mail-order with a US Postal Money order.
No can do, apparently. So I've saved myself a ton of money by dropping out of the US aboveground economy ..
Craigslist is fine when you're near a major urban area, but not so good in the sticks.
A Naval attache gave a slideshow presentation to my Reserve unit in the mid 1980'2 showing some sights of "floating" black markets in Moscow. I've noticed the same thing going on in my town the past year. Activity increasing too.
E-bay!?! Why didn't I think of that? Thanks for the lead. Must be the negative press E-bay's getting made that site blank completely out of my mind -- or the fact that several years ago somebody tried to hack my paypal account...
Craigslist is fine when you're near a major urban area, but not so good in the sticks.
True, true. I see shapers pop up every couple of weeks in my backwater location, but those are usually 3-phase commercial units. Routers are more common, and a large one with a table might be a substitute, depending on what you are doing.
we live away from cities... as a result, we rely on satellite internet... now that has bandwidth quota, unlike DSL and fiber connections you all have... now, that means the live view of nyc just uses up precious quota... is there anyway to just not run it automatically???
In addition the very act of Quantative Easing puts a hard "bid" into government bonds. As their yields collapse toward zero up the curve prices for those bonds skyrocket and blow off in a parabolic fashion.
This sounds great for the holders of those bonds (e.g. foreigners), except for one small problem - all bubbles burst, sophisticated investors know this, and in order to realize those paper gains you have to sell!
Anyone who has seen one parabolic blow-off top on a chart knows what comes after the peak is reached. Eventually someone comes to the conclusion that "it's just not going to go any further" and sells.
This begins the collapse in price (and skyrocketing yield) which places the central bank in an extraordinarily-difficult position - if they "take up" all of the supply to prevent the yield from shooting higher they are printing money of zero velocity which does nothing, and once all that supply has been taken up they're out of ammunition and holding the bag on bonds that are worth nowhere near what they paid for them!
i had a pretty fun christmas. how bout yall? sure we all talked of the economic situation but there was no sign of a slowdown in the gifts exchanged in our family. i went huge because i roughly doubled my salary about six months ago and paid off all my debt about the same time. everyone else bought what they always have.
obligatory nihilist anecdote:
got an update from my cousin who is an exec at a major las vegas strip resort on their expansion plans. all plans are shelved for at least a year because of the cost of money and the remarkable internal decision that expansion is just not worth it. they are going through every department and looking at every worker and deciding if they are needed. they just did a round of layoffs and more are coming early next year.
I plan to start my Christmas shopping tomorrow. It wasn't easy to convince the wife to celebrate the holiday two days late. But I hope for some good deals as the stores around here are opening at 5 A.M.
Not so sure about the so-called :after Christmas sales at various retailers. Doesn't look to me that prices are ^that^ much lower. Perhaps in three to four months out some close-out merchants such as Big Lots may have sominterestimng and better quality stock.
I know Wal-Mart often doesn't mark down stuff too far, but rather sells it off to close out outfits.
"I plan to start my Christmas shopping tomorrow. It wasn't easy to convince the wife to celebrate the holiday two days late. But I hope for some good deals as the stores around here are opening at 5 A.M."
--John S
I'm waiting for January or later for everything other than business purchases that I can deduct under Sec. 179 this year.
Once the Holidays sales period ends, there will still be a ton of inventory. They have to sell it to someone, unless they plan to bury it in landfills.
My first stop in January will probably be furniture stores, if there are any left. If not, I'll be looking up liquidators.
I'm also skipping CES this year, since none of the new stuff will be going into production for next year anyway. The good news is that the CE manufacturers will have time to get Home 3D right before they start foisting it on consumers. They might even be forced to come to terms with standardizing it before they start shipping to fight it out in the market.
Can someone explain retail operating leverage to me? Certainly 5% or so y/y reduction in sales is bad, but I'm surprised at the carnage it seems to be causing. Or is it the fact that it's 5% reduction in sales on top of the discounting (demand still elastic) means cash/profit are actually down 70% or so, and that's the true carnage?
stansd writes:
"Can someone explain retail operating leverage to me?"
I'm no expert, and someone else can probably give a more detailed explanation, but one obvious problem is that most retailers are radically overpaying for retail store space. I mean radically overpaying. "Radically" is not a good enough adjective, but it's the best one I can come up with quickly.
There's a certain irony in gas prices being so low that people can now afford to drive to their vacation destination.
Problem is, they can't afford the vacation.
My Seattle girlfriend bought me a bunch of $1.00 cotton t-shirts at Value Village, they're blue, black, orange, green, brown.
I normally wear company-brand t-shirts I picked up during contracting gigs but these things are pretty soft. Maybe Mish is right, maybe frugality is growing on me.
Uncle Billy Smiles writes:
"sm_landord: I'm having flashbacks to 3rd street during the Rodney riots."
Do you mean 3rd street in LA where the Korean shop owners were defending their stores with assault weapons, or 3rd street in Santa Monica, which was a ghost town?
Dryfly mentioned tumbledweeds at the end of the last thread. Kinda like that here Christmas day! Exit | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 10:03 pm | #
We'll see tumbleweeds in some of these strip malls by next fall - just takes a season or two w/ out people driving on the parking lots and no maintenance. They sprout up through the cracks in the pavement. Give it some time.
<i>The black economy appears to thrive in countries where populations distrust the authorities and where corruption is rife. In place like Georgia, Nigeria, Bolivia and Azerbaijan the black economy approaches two-thirds of GDP. Invariably, it appears, the black economy diminishes where transparency increases and the faith of citizens in the authorities and tax policies rises.</i>
"Overcapacity can be such a bitch when people finally realize they don't need the stuff you're retailing."
--Anonymous
Well, Christmas shopping could be classified as 100% discretionary if it weren't for the expectation of gifts by family members and others.
This year, our family negotiated a "Secret Santa" program, in which each member was assigned another member (by draw) to buy a gift for, other gifts prohibited unless they were hand-made.
But we feasted large and consumed mass quantities. All capacity satisfied here.
I can tell you for sure that Kohl's will experience negative sales in the next few weeks. We have some $90 of Kohl's dollars ready to cash in.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 11:22 pm | #
My better half was seriously pissed when she found that I'd missed $30 in Kohl's dollars in a separate bag.
I wonder how close that this is to "scrip" that private entities would issue to purchase items when dollars weren't available? Apart from a sales gimmick?
The black economy is prevalent to some degree in all countries -- as people everywhere fight a temptation to hide income from tax authorities. But the problem is particularly severe in the transition countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. There, in the past, huge parallel economies often arose to fill needs not provided by the state-run sector.
I wonder how big the "shadow economy" will become in the US over the next few years. Will it be like Italy where you go to a store and pay two different prices depending on whether the owner rings it up, triggering the sales tax, and gives you a reciept or you just pay cash and get change.
Aristophon - your fly fishing in New Zealand suggestion is bang on point. I can recommend, and probably get you, private access to rivers in Otago where you'll get no one next door, and the most colossal trout, because my father in law shoots cormorants like he has cookies with tea. Casually, with determination and accuracy.
The trout is superb, and we mainly gut and prepare bankside, with a small smoker, salted and sugared and hey presto in 40 mins you have fresh smoked trout for lunch.
There are certainly some things I miss about being in DC.
Market has retail sales off by 75% so it all priced in. This is good for a 2000 point gain tomorrow.
Credit enima is coming..... | 12.25.08 - 10:33 pm | #
That's right. Buy stocks now or you'll miss the mother of all rallies.
And to keep those $$$ figures up retailers discounted severely in the race to cut the legs out from under their competitors. So margins will be even worse than the revs figures.
Retail is in a massive over-capacity situation. I expect many failures over the next couple of months. Shoppers will hardly notice, except for the dark spaces. SPG, GGP... however, another story.
"Christmas sales fell short of projections. But, gasoline is at $1.55 compared to last years $3.50. Also, car sales are down as are home prices. If you take this years Christmas sales, double the current cost of gasoline, factor in car sales at last years rates and new home sales at 2005 rates, we actually had record high Holiday sales numbers."
"Retail is in a massive over-capacity situation. I expect many failures over the next couple of months."
--bearly
I am interested in seeing who survives in the CE space. Around here at least, we have witnessed a battle between the national CE retailers (CC, BB, etc.) vs the local "Crazy Eddie" types, like "Paul the King of Big Screens" and "Video & Audio Center".
CC is already toast, and I'm rooting for BB to fall hard. I hope the "Eddies" and Fry's survive, although Fry's just had to fire their head buyer for taking kickbacks.
I like real retailers over the conglomerate buggers, but I'm afraid that I might be disappointed - BB will probably survive.
lawyerliz writes:
The hub in Fla has nothing to do and hence is reorganizing the pantry. He is bewildered at the number of cans I have stashed away.
He doesn't roll his eyes anymore, but also doesn't understand just how bad it can get.
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 5:39 pm | #
From previous thread.
We're also stashing away cans, but I'm branching out into large bags of rice and beans. I've now gotten several friends to start stocking up for "dislocations".
The better half doesn't roll her eyes at all. She - and I - are just frustrated at the amount of crap and disorganization from household construction and family guests over Xmas. There's stuff everywhere and that's going to be my project tomorrow...
peronista, your comment about XOM at $385B in market cap was interesting. Any reason XOM (down only 20%) should outperform the general market given oil and natural gas prices are down significantly?
As for retailers. I am confused. Are gift cards counted as revenue when the gift card is bought or when it is used?
obligatory nihilist anecdote:
got an update from my cousin who is an exec at a major las vegas strip resort on their expansion plans. all plans are shelved for at least a year because of the cost of money and the remarkable internal decision that expansion is just not worth it. they are going through every department and looking at every worker and deciding if they are needed. they just did a round of layoffs and more are coming early next year.
sneering nihilist | 12.25.08 - 11:35 pm | #
A couple of hours ago I was watching part of a show on casinos. They were saying that many of them are putting in lots of new slot machines because they dont call in sick, dont need to get paid, dont need health care, and a few more good reasons. Makes sense to me. I believe it was the discovery channel.
Was it my imagination, or were there several financial and TV news reports right after "Black Friday" that portrayed retail sales as decent? What happened to that?
Who in this govt. is going to nationalize the banking system? The Republicans as an opposition measure, Dodd, Schumer, Pelosi or Reid? Larry Summers, Geitner? The banks have their money. Grave warnings of massive budget deficits, socialism and govt. interference follow
Oh yes, things could get worse. Having the government take over the lending business would be a very bad thing. And there would be big costs. But it could certainly happen if the political pressure got bad enough.
For example, if trade LOCs don't start getting issued, either the government or someone will make sure that they do.
You are already seeing the government step in to guarantee GMAC and AMEX because the banks would not. I heard that the FED is now buying commercial credit. We are not far from the next steps.
For example, if trade LOCs don't start getting issued, either the government or someone will make sure that they do.
You are already seeing the government step in to guarantee GMAC and AMEX because the banks would not. I heard that the FED is now buying commercial credit. We are not far from the next steps.
sm_landlord
Taxpayers buying crap no one else wants isn't nationalizing the banks
"Taxpayers buying crap no one else wants isn't nationalizing the banks"
--Anonymous
True. They are doing it by steps. There is more than one way to do it. Banks could simply be marginalized, in the same way that Wall Street took them out of the mortgage business. By funding GMAC, banks are taken out of the auto finance business. By funding AMEX, banks are taken out of the credit card business. Paypal is threatening the checking business.
Countryfried almost took them out of the mortgage brokerage business, and it remains to be seen how BofA manages that.
The retail banking business is in big trouble and stretching for relevance. Why else would they have been opening branches in supermarkets? It wouldn't take much to push them over the edge at this point.
I mean, if my household loses 5% of its incoming money, we would be fine. nick | 12.25.08 - 10:07 pm | #
Lots of households run pretty much paycheck-to-paycheck. A 5% swing to the good and the credit cards are getting paid off; a 5% swing to the bad and the hole practically digs itself.
Commercially speaking, numerous businesses (especially grocers) run on less than 5% margins.
The problem with the big-box stores isn't necessarily thin margins, it's the fact that the market they catered to is evaporating. Sure, people will continue to buy their stuff, but not anywhere near at the price and volume they have this past decade. They can't survive in a world where big-screen TVs aren't flying out the door on easy credit.
So, really 'demand destruction' occurred on the way up. Because the demand bubble was destructive to the economy. What we have now is 'demand deflation', reducing demand to a healthy level.
The economy was obese. A demand loss program kicked in.
Non productive works is party to the ailment. Now we need a demand for productive works as part of the cure.
USA 2009 = USSR 1989 or Weimar Germany 1919. Collapse is coming soon. All that bailout artillery barrage money is going all the wrong places, saving bad banks and obsolete retailers, instead of manufacturers. Wasting precious few ammunitions in the middle of night to fight ghosts.
In order to avoid another Great Depression, Bernanke is actually creating even bigger SHTF, the Great Collapse, the same way as "in order to save the village we had to destroy it". History is one clever bitch with a great sense of irony
"most retailers are radically overpaying for retail store space"
bingo - commercial and retail landlords are really shooting themselves in the foot.
in this kind of economy, very few places, office, retail, industrial, are worth over $30/sq/ft/yr, even in manhattan, west la, financial district LA, gold coast, K st and NW DC, back bay etc.
why do they go out of their way to choke the life out of the few viable tenants remaining?
I'm hoping that the mammals get one more bite of the apple. sm_landlord | 12.26.08 - 2:27 am | #
We will. Every card could fall in place for complete collapse. Odds are, not every card will fall in place for that to happen. The next black swan could be a surprise to the upside. That said, my mind is too small and too tired to think of one right now... could be because it's unpredictable by definition
<i>BEIJING, Dec. 25 (Xinhua) -- China's currency, Renminbi, is likely to join other international currencies to be used for forex reserves by other economies, according to Wu Xiaoling, former vice governor of the country's central bank and now the deputy head of the financial and economic committee under the top legislature. Wu made the remarks in her article carried by the latest annual issue of the leading business magazine Caijing. Wu wrote that China should make preparations in its economic structure and its financial regime for its currency to be internationalized. ---------------------Meanwhile, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Yunnan Province will be allowed to use Renminbi to settle trade payments with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) members, according to a government announcement on Wednesday evening. But the Government did not give any details of how and when the pilot currency program would start. "The move will mitigate the risk of exchange rate fluctuations for Chinese exporters and their trade partners," Zhao Xijun, finance processor at Renmin University of China, was quoted as saying by Thursday's China Daily. Most of China's external trade is settled in U.S. dollar or the euro at present. But, the paper said, many analysts predicted the dollar might depreciate substantially in the coming years because of the ailing U.S. economy.</i> Senior official: Renminbi likely to be used as currency for forex reserves_English_Xinhua
Wow, they tried to slip that one past us all on christmas day (boxing day here!). Looks like they want to weaken the USD!
"sm_landlord, if I may ask, what's your primary focus in terms of investment properties?"
--Comrade Bear
Multifamily residential purchased a very long time ago and paid for. I haven't put any new money into real estate since 1979, other than improvements. I lost most of what I invested in CRE in 1979 during the late eighties.
My focus since 1991 has been investment in technology ventures and real assets other than real estate. But I still hold and manage multifamily residential. And I might be interested in real estate again if I see value there.
"We will. Every card could fall in place for complete collapse. Odds are, not every card will fall in place for that to happen"
Well, that was exactly what the bank math geniuses said with their derivative models. And now all the fancy investment banks are gone...US economy is a big fat turkey walking into slaughterhouse.
"At least that means you're unlikely to take a hit on rents as the economy tanks over the coming years."
--Comrade Bear
No, I could still take a hit. But my costs are fairly low. The biggest problem I have is when "lifers" pass away and I have to spend $15K or so bringing the unit up to current standards. And I guess it's not fair to say I have a 0% vacancy rate, because it typically takes two months to get a unit fixed up for the market after someone lets it go. But that doesn't happen often.
@bgates, the tax rate is not as good as you would think. Taxes have been replaced by fees. So I now pay several hundred dollars per month for trash, hundreds more for "water and sewer" fees, hundreds more for "compliance and inspection" costs, thousands in "assessments" for schools, street lighting, etc. All "fees" that did not exist before. The city and county have found ways around prop 13.
"I'm sure that the same stewards of excellence who bring us the paragon of academic prestige that is SMC also have a knack for raising a buck or two."
--bgates
Don't even get me started. SMC sells bogus edumacation to the gullible at the expense of the property owners in SM.
I did get them back a bit, but I'm not going to be specific on a public forum. Let's just say that everyone knows their game.
Will it be like Italy where you go to a store and pay two different prices depending on whether the owner rings it up, triggering the sales tax, and gives you a reciept or you just pay cash and get change.
NorkaWest | 12.26.08 - 12:32 am | #
When I lived in Taiwan in the mid 90s, all receipts had lottery numbers on them so that people would demand them from the retailer. Thus, the retailer couldn't hide their profits from the taxman.
At the end of the month, the winning numbers would be published in the paper and my wife and I would go through a drawer full of 'fapiow' to see how much we won. We always made enough winnings to make it worthwhile.
Wow, they tried to slip that one past us all on christmas day (boxing day here!). Looks like they want to weaken the USD! andy in nz | 12.26.08 - 2:42 am | # No, not trying to weaken the USD. They are trying to save their economy and hence, their sorry asses.
When I lived in Taiwan in the mid 90s, all receipts had lottery numbers on them so that people would demand them from the retailer. Thus, the retailer couldn't hide their profits from the taxman. General Chiang Kai Gerkinov | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 3:40 am | #
Shhhhh! Quiet. Don't give our Governator any bright ideas.
Have had interesting conversations with my dad since he is in town. Being in CA I asked him about FL finances and he went off on how the Republican lawmakers were blocking Crist's agreement with the Indian casino's which would boost revenues. Seemed to me like he only cared about getting the money, and not that such agreement was within the Constitution or not.
He also went off on the unions, basically said that unions are bad and if the unions don't want to cooperate with business than all jobs should be outsourced to India for cheaper; I mean they only cost 25 cents an hour. Talk about eating your corn seed... we can offshore every-job! I'm not pro-union per se, but I am pro-American and becoming more sensitive to buying cheap foreign items (which in many cases is hard to avoid).
Of course I did just buy a Japanese car, but I've been having all sorts of problems with finding quality clothes. It seems like my pants fall apart after 5 or 6 months.
YLSP I have Indian contractors that i outsource IT to. I just had this same discussion tonight with a cousin, whose Canadian employer, 1-of-5 big banks, has just given a 120 day notice to 300 people (one department). Outsourcing 'audit' jobs to India. I laughed. I tried to explain why that was bad idea.
So the effects of globalization vibrated at our family Christmas dinner.
Brian A.(Unrated) writes: Was it my imagination, or were there several financial and TV news reports right after "Black Friday" that portrayed retail sales as decent? What happened to that?
If there was ever an independent mainstream media narrative in America, it's a fading memory today.
The people who release those statistics do so for promotional purposes -- they want you out there buying before the Tickle Me Elmos are gone, not sitting on the sidelines waiting for after-holiday discount sales. The news dutifully reports it just like the sponsors suggest.
The fact that it is orthogonal to reality is immaterial to the process at this point.
Dryfly mentioned tumbledweeds at the end of the last thread. Kinda like that here Christmas day!
Exit | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 10:03 pm | #
We'll see tumbleweeds in some of these strip malls by next fall - just takes a season or two w/ out people driving on the parking lots and no maintenance. They sprout up through the cracks in the pavement. Give it some time.
As a real estate developer I'm trying to figure out what to do with those big box retail centers I built in California early this decade. I'm thinking turn them into gov't-funded homeless shelters? Oh...the irony.
Kondratieff canuk(Unrated) writes: What a brilliantly Chinese idea... lottery numbers...hehe...rich.
Yah, I wrote that one down.
You could even run it on the retail side too and pay out to both parties in the trx to boost compliance. Maybe rebate the retail locale their trx tax rcpts for a time period.
>Kondratieff canukwrites: Yanks compared to Canucks are very born and bred Dopes in their politics. We Canucks, and the Brits, and the Auzzie's rip them to shreds whenever possible. It is our calling. If they survive the ripping, we rip them some more. Religion is a weight around their neck.
My request is, make it so. \t Kondratieff canuk | \t \t \t \t12.14.08 - 8:23 pm < Your politics are superb. The problem is the Quenn has not given consent for you to convene Parliament.
One would think not being allowed to convene a representative governing body would raise the ire of Canadians, but the dopes seem to take it kneeling down. They prefer Americans do their dirty work.
From 12/24/08 NYT article that rehashes what was hashed on CR years ago...You have to understand how independent brokers work, Mr. Sandler says. They are the whores of the world. Despite that distaste, World Savings made extensive use of brokers.
"No man's life, liberty or fortune is safe while our legislature is in session." - Ben Franklin
One would think not being allowed to convene a representative governing body would raise the ire of Canadians, but the dopes seem to take it kneeling down.
How many trillions less would the US owe if our congress had gone on vacation for all of 2008?
Don't worry be happy. We can spend even more we don't have in 2009.
Hi Honey, I'll be home for a more than a while. I got fired. Can you open me a beer and pop some popcorn while I watch football?
JimPortlandOR | 12.25.08 - 11:57 pm | #
or, would you rather watch the rest of the total collapse of Western society
YLSP writes, "It seems like my pants fall apart after 5 or 6 months."
I've noticed this, too. Pants don't last a tenth of the time they used to, even though I'm less active now. 3rd world quality is a state of mind first, then it permeates every area of our lives.
Wait till our president with the 4th world roots and values gets going...
"We will. Every card could fall in place for complete collapse. Odds are, not every card will fall in place for that to happen"
Well, that was exactly what the bank math geniuses said with their derivative models. And now all the fancy investment banks are gone...US economy is a big fat turkey walking into slaughterhouse.
one_timmy | 12.26.08 - 2:56 am | #
there may be some who will pine for the days when we would topple any regime that moved out of dollars, but since oil isn't directly involved with the move by the renminbi then maybe we could let it slide
would this non-action be seen as a Black Swanling? it was factored into those geniuses model as one that would never happen
Tumbleweeds (Salsola iberica ssp Sennen, a.k.a. Russian Thistle) are a non-native invasive considered a noxious weed by the USDA. It was introduced to North America less than 150 years ago, and now springs up in every western state, often surviving drought while native species die.
On the plus side, there are some marginally edible parts to the plant--but you won't see them coming to your farmer's market anytime soon (except to roll through the empty square).
What happened, did they override W's veto on some spending bill?
LA Times Nov 07- "Intensifying his battle with Congress over federal spending, President Bush on Tuesday vetoed an appropriations bill for the first time, rejecting $150.7 billion in spending for school aid, healthcare and other domestic programs.
But as he complained about the cost of that bill, which would have increased spending on these programs by 4.3% over last year, Bush signed a $471-billion defense appropriations bill that pushed up military spending by more than 9.5%.
And he urged Congress to quickly appropriate $196 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan."
What people keep believing is that the Conservatives are trying to "save the economy" or have any interest in America's well-being. Even when they are showing you every day that they mean to destroy America (which was liberal) and replace it with an armed slave camp. Why do slaves need healthcare or education ... ? Of course the Establishment needs more money for weapons, to "protect" us.
It is a very durable belief in America that the Cons are who they said they were. Americans have "confidence" in the good ol' boys. So the next act will be interesting.
The cons are already blaming whoever else they can, and some, incredibly enough, will still belieeeeeeve.
America really is going to let the Upper Class bleed them out like the slaughtered cattle they are. They are now rendered into good, Conservative cattle: the better for the eating.
Counterpointer writes:
Aristophon - your fly fishing in New Zealand suggestion is bang on point. I can recommend, and probably get you, private access to rivers in Otago where you'll get no one next door, and the most colossal trout, because my father in law shoots cormorants like he has cookies with tea. Casually, with determination and accuracy.
he's destroying inland shags
gonna be a lot of unhappy kiwis, inland shags is what they come for as the temps soar in central otago, particularly at this time of year (lots of women binge drinking in the festive season)
would this non-action be seen as a Black Swanling? it was factored into those geniuses model as one that would never happen
How can you describe an inevitable event as a "Black Swan"?
In retrospect, you can see how Evil doesn't start off as Evil. It starts off as "benevolence" and then gets caught in a compromise, and then another, and finally it's backed into a corner.
Like Congress.
Or Madoff.
I wonder about Madoff, about ending a notable career of many decades, of many actions & associations, only to end it with "con artist" and "scam" scrawled on everything.
How could an ego handle that?
Was he hoping he would die first?
The governor of the Bank of Spain on Sunday issued a bleak assessment of the economic crisis, warning that the world faced a "total" financial meltdown unseen since the Great Depression.
"The lack of confidence is total," Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said in an interview with Spain's El Pais daily.
"The inter-bank (lending) market is not functioning and this is generating vicious cycles: consumers are not consuming, businessmen are not taking on workers, investors are not investing and the banks are not lending.
"There is an almost total paralysis from which no-one is escaping," he said, adding that any recovery -- penciled in by optimists for the end of 2009 and the start of 2010 -- could be delayed if confidence is not restored.
sm_landlord writes:
A tidbit for the Dawg to chew on when he wakes up:
Targeting the Wasteful, Activists Seek End to California's Waste Board
Thanks, I had a similar experience trying to reform the structure of Ventura Counties' 108 water districts back in the 90s.
The article highlights what is IMO the #1 problem with California governance and dysfunction; lifetime politicians. #2 of course is that the megaregion is far too large for a nominally democratic State organizational structure.
JR writes:
What people keep believing is that the Conservatives are trying to "save the economy" or have any interest in America's well-being.
The problem with your plan to hang all this around the neck of "Conservatives" is that first you have to find a conservative. There hasn't been one holding high office for decades. Just because a certain political party likes to imagine itself as conservative doesn't make it so. Conservative is as conservative does.
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan Pakistan began moving thousands of troops away from the Afghan border toward India on Friday amid tensions following the Mumbai attacks, intelligence officials said.
The move represents a sharp escalation in the standoff between the nuclear-armed neighbors and will hurt Pakistan's U.S.-backed campaign against Al Qaeda and Taliban taking place near Afghanistan's border.
Two intelligence officials said the army's 14th Division was being redeployed to Kasur and Sialkot, close to the Indian border. They said some 20,000 troops were on the move. Earlier Friday, a security official said that all troop leave had been canceled.
Woo. And a Gaza incursion warming up, probably including action on the Lebanese front.
Oh the twilight of the mad emperor's reign will be a splendid thing.
Snigger, good one. I imagine he was referring to balmy climate of the PNW which is so miserable even the econuts of Seattle and Portland are open to listening to alternative global warming theories.
I imagine he was referring to balmy climate of the PNW which is so miserable even the econuts of Seattle and Portland are open to listening to alternative global warming theories.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 8:37 am | #
What else can one do when hopped up on caffeine whilst buried to the hubs in unsalted snow?
Anony - alternative headline "Bank of Spain Gov says Sh!tpile Not His Fault".
In an increasingly desperate bid to keep his job, the Governor of the Bank of Spain has decided to issue a weekly announcement of impending collapse caused by external forces for which he cannot be held accountable.
"It's a disaster. There is no armada to the future. Foreign forces have designed an entrapment strategy for our finest upstanding financiers, and we head into the new year as vulnerable as we were in '75. I don't think anyone could have predicted the extraordinary pressures on the central bank occasioned by this crisis. Our success will be measured in mitigation and survival, not an early return of prosperity. The central bank will play a leading role in this response, and will endure despite the predations of the ECB. God be with you all, because no one else is."
The Governor confirmed that he was not personally exposed to the Madoff ponzi, but noted that those fkwits at Santander were.
## What else can one do when hopped up on caffeine whilst buried to the hubs in unsalted snow?
Volker the Viking
I shouldn't throw stones in my own glass house. I'm up because the wind machines in the orchards are running full blast. It's 34º here so it's likely 30 in the low spots. So cold the damn cats won't sit on my legs. They look like fur covered bowling balls with about two sq in of contact area on the chair.
Seriously, the PNW weather is another black swan of 2008. Snowiest on record in places. It is amazing our capacity for denial until we discover ourselves hubcap deep in ice & snow or financial excrement.
Dave of SV writes:
Black Swan: India and Pakistan?
I may be a minority but I don't think so. Having nuclear weapons on both sides serves to focus the attention of leaders who would otherwise have no qualms about picking a fight.
And Palley gave a broader view of the fundamental problem in an early 2008 post:
With regard to lengthened economic expansions, the great moderation has been driven by asset price inflation and financial innovation, which have financed consumer spending. Higher asset prices have provided collateral to borrow against, while financial innovation has increased the volume and ease of access to credit. Together, that created a dynamic in which rising asset prices have supported increased debt-financed spending, thereby making for longer expansions. This dynamic is exemplified by the housing bubble of the last eight years.
The important implication is that the Great Moderation is the result of a retreat from full employment combined with the transitional factors of disinflation, asset price inflation, and increased consumer borrowing. Those factors now appear exhausted. Further disinflation will produce disruptive deflation. Asset prices (particularly real estate) seem above levels warranted by fundamentals, making for the danger of asset price deflation. And many consumers have exhausted their access to credit and now pose significant default risks.
Given this, the Great Moderation could easily come to a grinding halt. Though high inflation is unlikely to return, recessions are likely to deepen and linger. If that happens the reputations of central bankers will sully, and the real foundation and hidden costs of the Great Moderation may surface. That could prompt a re-writing of history that restores demands for a return to true full employment with diminished income inequality. How we tell history really does matter
From the WSJ on top picks of 2008. You guys finished just ahead of Roubini
Short-Sellers. You were right. Everyone else was wrong.
Nouriel Roubini. There are plenty who can lay claim to the title of Dr. Doom those who were bearish in time to save their clients a lot of dough but for our money nobody explained what was going to happen as accurately as RGE Inc.s economist
"So I now pay several hundred dollars per month for trash"
sm_landlord : you should encourage your tenants to compost. will cut down your garbage load by about 50%.
just take some of the big plastic trash buckets, drill some holes in the side, and voila...put some potting soil and/or shredded newspaper next to it and tell them to layer everytime it gets a little smelly..
These accounting topics are more complicated when the a third party (e.g. AmEx, airline) issues redeemable units (cards, "points," coupons) to buyers on behalf of multiple, contracted sellers. Then, arguably, the unit ("gift card") currency and credit function is effectively "scrip."
Perhaps we'll know within a short period of time. There are troop movements reported.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.26.08 - 9:47 am | #
Is this news that can be illuminated by a poster somewhat closer to the action? It seems the Indians and Pakistani are always at odds to some extent. It's when the Chinese mass troop I start to worry.
"The lack of confidence is total," Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said in an interview with Spain's El Pais daily.
"The inter-bank (lending) market is not functioning and this is generating vicious cycles: consumers are not consuming, businessmen are not taking on workers, investors are not investing and the banks are not lending.
Typical banker. He thinks the reason people who would have to pay 50%+ of their takehome income to keep their houses are cutting back on expenses (or defaulting) is -
"......you should encourage your tenants to compost......" - since when does a tenant care about anything the landlord has to endure. The landlord is always considered "rich", "tight", and totally "unreasonable".
"When I lived in Taiwan in the mid 90s, all receipts had lottery numbers on them so that people would demand them from the retailer. Thus, the retailer couldn't hide their profits from the taxman.
At the end of the month, the winning numbers would be published in the paper and my wife and I would go through a drawer full of 'fapiow' to see how much we won. We always made enough winnings to make it worthwhile."
Exactly.... and they still have them. this is the just the measure to raise revenue when trying to milk indigenous interest in games of chance.
When I was lucky enough to live in Taipei, we'd keep even the receipt from a tea egg at NT10 to increase our chances, and as you note, it was often worth the trouble.
Gov't sharing spoils from extortion makes for a greater take is central to all that ails us, benefits us...
Volker: ## Is this news that can be illuminated by a poster somewhat closer to the action? It seems the Indians and Pakistani are always at odds to some extent. It's when the Chinese mass troop I start to worry."
I'd worry too, but they've got their own issues (love that word) to deal with.
I had lunch with a well educated Indian a while ago, post-Bombay atrocity. His casual take was that the event was simply a wake up call, P was a mess, and military action would be expected by any decent thinking Indian. After all, that's what arms are for. I was pretty shaken by this, and had no mood for coffee.
Re: Holes in your clothing. An interesting tidbit to consider.
Back in the day I worked for the big cotton broker W.B. Dunavant. I recently looked 'em up just to see what they were up to.
My boss's son now runs the firm. Saw an article he wrote that says roundup ready cotton has hurt fiber strength. Seems the staple is shorter and weaker with transgenic seed. That would explain holes in your socks, pants, towels, etc. BTW, I've noticed it too. Monsanto, of course, is sayin' it ain't true.
The old Sears towels wore like iron. And burlington socks lasted for several years.
Don't know if it's true. Seems they're investigating it.
Guess some of the stores are not hurting. Just got back from Sears and they would not bargin on a new fridge at all. Refused to even listen to my offer.
A friend has a FedEx route in an affluent area near Boston. His holiday traffic was up 10% from last year. Amazon is also up, so it makes some sense. He wasn't sure if he got some business away from DHL, so that could have contributed as well.
He also went off on the unions, basically said that unions are bad and if the unions don't want to cooperate with business than all jobs should be outsourced to India for cheaper; I mean they only cost 25 cents an hour. Talk about eating your corn seed...
Yes, it's the penal colony mentality. Bust unions; bust US workers; bust those who dare want a living. Then jail 'em.
This is the post-industrial narrative from Reagan down through Clinton and Bush. Now the superstructure is going busto (with gusto), and along with panic and deprivation, the collapse may put a measure of power back in the hands of ordinary folk.
Angry ordinary folk. With a simple message. Dear overlords: tremble.
first
We ALL knew THAT!.....
Lefty's is having a midnight madness sale...
Dryfly mentioned tumbledweeds at the end of the last thread. Kinda like that here Christmas day!
CR - Not much chance of hiking today, though I did take my boys to DP harbor and kicked the sand a bit. The older one got a telescope from a friend, so we're making plans to visit Joshua Tree in the spring.
Hope you get some time off...
bad news -- just wait for January - 12 months ago it was gift cards (sold in December 2007) that goosed January 2008 retail sales - Gift card sales this December a disaster = January 2009 retail sales >(-4%)
I have never understood, until now, just how cut-throat retail is. I mean, if my household loses 5% of its incoming money, we would be fine. Seems if a retail chain does the same, liquidation or bankruptcy occurs.
Why don't we play the how CNBS will spin the numbers game? Any ideas how this is gonna be spun tomorrow?
Exit, have fun at Joshua Tree. Pick a night with a new moon ... we didn't camp in the campgrounds - instead we backpacked in from a bulletin board. Pretty nice being in the middle of the desert with no one around!
Best Wishes.
"This will go down as the one of the worst holiday sales seasons on record"
Records are meant to be broken. Wait 'till next year...
Maybe they cant get TARP money, but retailers want help, too. Another bailout??
"The country's largest retail trade association asked President-elect Barack Obama Tuesday to add a series of sales tax-exempt shopping days to a coming economic stimulus package in an effort to revive consumer confidence and spur spending."
retailers are asking Obama to be in on the stimulus plan
Nick, very few analysts get this for '09. Now expand that thought to almost all industries.
When you're done:
Think Exxon and USD 390 billion market cap. Will they and other majors make a profit at 25 dollar oil?
Will S&P500 have positive earnings in 2009? Or will the current forecast of $75 per share prevail?
....."tax-exempt" shopping days will just add to spending discipline. Anything costing BIG BUCKS will just get delayed until a NO-TAXES day comes up (or at least so the thinking will be). After the initial "I want it" emotion goes away, the expenditure then just doesn't happen.
I think many so-called experts AND retail underestimate the powers of "new found frugal Americans". It might be a very sad lesson for retail, financial analysts, government, and any other sectors requiring increased spending to supplement existing fiscal shortages.
CR--
Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you. I have learned so much by lurking this past year and a half. You and Tanta, well, you know. I've been thinking of her the past few days a lot as I crawl around Madison and try not to slide into a snow bank (snowiest Dec on record...need to hide the sharp objects soon...). It was quite fitting to learn she spent a fair bit of time here. The humor and grit and intellectual rigor...well, dryfly understands the whole midwestern thing. I married into it, and learn more every day.
Retail, even here, has been noticeably slower. And we're somewhat insulated between the UW, the state govt., and all the ag, biomedical and energy research going on. Never had the RE boom either (at least compared with the coasts).
Pissed Off In California
Why don't we play the how CNBS will spin the numbers game?
Bobble head speaking to Bobble head
"there is a silver lining in all of this, the more the retailers discount prices the more the consumer will buy, just like in the housing market with the increase in foreclosure sales ... and once Barock Obama brings in his stimulus plan I think we could see this market really start to turn around"
Market has retail sales off by 75% so it all priced in. This is good for a 2000 point gain tomorrow.
I wonder how many Americans visited elderly family today, complained about this n that, and then listened to Gramps or Granny or Uncle Festus talk about how things were back during GD1, or during WW2.
Stories of sacrifice, want, hardship, conservation, saving, walking, making do.
And despite the Lakers game on hi-def, wondered for the first time - is this REAL? Then turned and looked in the eyes of their forebears and for the first time, understood.
Yes.
And maybe - maybe - there's a way through it.
One of my favorite curmudgeonly quotes from Churchill - "If you're going through Hell - keep going."
roadkill:
"silver lining" ... a giveaway, you're talking about the chipper, indomitable and always-wrong ERIN BURNETT!
"Market has retail sales off by 75% so it all priced in. This is good for a 2000 point gain tomorrow."
That definitely will cause a big jump. CNBC analyst explains 2000 point gain because market is pricing in a bottom in sales price of retail items and a bottom in the maximum amount retailers will lose for each item they sell during Christmas.
"There's good news in the belt-tightening of America this Christmas, as families across America give abject lessons in "bah-humbugging", "coal in stocking" attitudes, and squirrel soup preparation and instincts."
OT
Could anybody explain what happened yesterday between AIG and the Feds Maiden Lane creature? I know AIG was happy which makes me real worried.
Just finished an experiment in using Amazon and some other online sites for purchasing woodworking equipment. I was looking to buy a machine and associated tooling for about 500 dollars -- not using a credit card or bank transfer. You know, by mail-order with a US Postal Money order.
No can do, apparently. So I've saved myself a ton of money by dropping out of the US aboveground economy ..
Then again, I don't have the machine either...
So... inflation-adjusted, the ex-gas numbers are about -5% and -7% for November and December?
Yeesh.
Then again, I don't have the machine either...
Craigslist does.
Aristophon what kind of machine ? What are you trying to do ?
@ anonymous:
Craigslist is fine when you're near a major urban area, but not so good in the sticks.
A Naval attache gave a slideshow presentation to my Reserve unit in the mid 1980'2 showing some sights of "floating" black markets in Moscow. I've noticed the same thing going on in my town the past year. Activity increasing too.
@ Credit enema:
A wood shaper and cutters.
look on ebay ROCKWELL / DELTA HEAVY DUTY WOOD SHAPER 43-340 - eBay (item 380020956032 end time Dec-14-09 11:01:55 PST)
@ credit enema:
E-bay!?! Why didn't I think of that? Thanks for the lead. Must be the negative press E-bay's getting made that site blank completely out of my mind -- or the fact that several years ago somebody tried to hack my paypal account...
Why shop before Xmas when the big discounts and markdowns usually occur after Xmas?
Question is, do I really need (blank)?
Craigslist is fine when you're near a major urban area, but not so good in the sticks.
True, true. I see shapers pop up every couple of weeks in my backwater location, but those are usually 3-phase commercial units. Routers are more common, and a large one with a table might be a substitute, depending on what you are doing.
Dean, you have got a point but I question whether people are shopping period.
The Economy and All
A cave, a fire and a piece of meat... will suffice for survial Everything else is a nice-to-have....
Bad Dawg Bobby-
Everyone has a price. For most, the retailers just hasn't found that price yet.
Bad Dawg Bobby-
Everyone has a price. For most, the retailers just hasn't found that price yet.
Sorry...I mean't haven't. That's xmas dinner and wine typing...
A cave, a fire and a piece of meat... will suffice for survival
That's pretty sexist, man.
At least give her a name.
.
we live away from cities... as a result, we rely on satellite internet... now that has bandwidth quota, unlike DSL and fiber connections you all have... now, that means the live view of nyc just uses up precious quota... is there anyway to just not run it automatically???
thanks
@ Broward:
Her name is "Fortitude" ..')
I think many so-called experts AND retail underestimate the powers of "new found frugal Americans".
Well if you don't need to buy stuff then I guess your salaries can be cut. This is the dynamic of deflation, no?
In addition the very act of Quantative Easing puts a hard "bid" into government bonds. As their yields collapse toward zero up the curve prices for those bonds skyrocket and blow off in a parabolic fashion.
This sounds great for the holders of those bonds (e.g. foreigners), except for one small problem - all bubbles burst, sophisticated investors know this, and in order to realize those paper gains you have to sell!
Anyone who has seen one parabolic blow-off top on a chart knows what comes after the peak is reached. Eventually someone comes to the conclusion that "it's just not going to go any further" and sells.
This begins the collapse in price (and skyrocketing yield) which places the central bank in an extraordinarily-difficult position - if they "take up" all of the supply to prevent the yield from shooting higher they are printing money of zero velocity which does nothing, and once all that supply has been taken up they're out of ammunition and holding the bag on bonds that are worth nowhere near what they paid for them!
Oops.
The Market Ticker
Hmm .. forced to be frugal Americans, based on the forecasts of job losses.
I can tell you for sure that Kohl's will experience negative sales in the next few weeks. We have some $90 of Kohl's dollars ready to cash in.
We have some $90 of Kohl's dollars ready to cash in
Kohl's is printing their own currency. That can't be a good sign.
I think it about time to go Fly Fishing in New Zealand.
Might as well go for one last fling---
"This will go down as the one of the worst holiday sales seasons on record"
The was changed from "the worst" to "one of the worst" by someone working overtime.
is there anyway to just not run it automatically???
Anonymous | 12.25.08 - 11:07 pm | #
Just hit the stop button on the video.
i had a pretty fun christmas. how bout yall? sure we all talked of the economic situation but there was no sign of a slowdown in the gifts exchanged in our family. i went huge because i roughly doubled my salary about six months ago and paid off all my debt about the same time. everyone else bought what they always have.
obligatory nihilist anecdote:
got an update from my cousin who is an exec at a major las vegas strip resort on their expansion plans. all plans are shelved for at least a year because of the cost of money and the remarkable internal decision that expansion is just not worth it. they are going through every department and looking at every worker and deciding if they are needed. they just did a round of layoffs and more are coming early next year.
You could also install Flashblock, if you run Firefox.
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/433
I plan to start my Christmas shopping tomorrow. It wasn't easy to convince the wife to celebrate the holiday two days late. But I hope for some good deals as the stores around here are opening at 5 A.M.
Kohl's is printing their own currency. That can't be a good sign. - Broward Horne
Yep. We all know how that worked out in the late 1700s.
And tomorrow Albertson's. A grocery chaun. 90% off LED lights with a ROI of 1 year.
Hi Honey, I'll be home for a more than a while. I got fired. Can you open me a beer and pop some popcorn while I watch football?
considering the favorable calendar shift the DEC number is off the chart
Not so sure about the so-called :after Christmas sales at various retailers. Doesn't look to me that prices are ^that^ much lower. Perhaps in three to four months out some close-out merchants such as Big Lots may have sominterestimng and better quality stock.
I know Wal-Mart often doesn't mark down stuff too far, but rather sells it off to close out outfits.
what is a "floating black market"?
@ Hoopajoops:
Untaxed market.
Yep. We all know how that worked out in the late 1700s.
Not all of us. I guess you're older than I thought, Dawg.
I might buy some new shoes this weekend but only if they're a real deal.
"I plan to start my Christmas shopping tomorrow. It wasn't easy to convince the wife to celebrate the holiday two days late. But I hope for some good deals as the stores around here are opening at 5 A.M."
--John S
I'm waiting for January or later for everything other than business purchases that I can deduct under Sec. 179 this year.
Once the Holidays sales period ends, there will still be a ton of inventory. They have to sell it to someone, unless they plan to bury it in landfills.
My first stop in January will probably be furniture stores, if there are any left. If not, I'll be looking up liquidators.
I'm also skipping CES this year, since none of the new stuff will be going into production for next year anyway. The good news is that the CE manufacturers will have time to get Home 3D right before they start foisting it on consumers. They might even be forced to come to terms with standardizing it before they start shipping to fight it out in the market.
Can someone explain retail operating leverage to me? Certainly 5% or so y/y reduction in sales is bad, but I'm surprised at the carnage it seems to be causing. Or is it the fact that it's 5% reduction in sales on top of the discounting (demand still elastic) means cash/profit are actually down 70% or so, and that's the true carnage?
Sta
the stores around here are opening at 5 A.M.
That's just wrong.
stansd writes:
"Can someone explain retail operating leverage to me?"
I'm no expert, and someone else can probably give a more detailed explanation, but one obvious problem is that most retailers are radically overpaying for retail store space. I mean radically overpaying. "Radically" is not a good enough adjective, but it's the best one I can come up with quickly.
There's a certain irony in gas prices being so low that people can now afford to drive to their vacation destination.
Problem is, they can't afford the vacation.
sm_landord: I'm having flashbacks to 3rd street during the Rodney riots.
This is a good timeline of the china-america trade and debt relationship.
"Chimera"
THE RECKONING; Dollar Shift: Chinese Pockets Filled as Americans' Emptied - NY Times
My Seattle girlfriend bought me a bunch of $1.00 cotton t-shirts at Value Village, they're blue, black, orange, green, brown.
I normally wear company-brand t-shirts I picked up during contracting gigs but these things are pretty soft. Maybe Mish is right, maybe frugality is growing on me.
Uncle Billy Smiles writes:
"sm_landord: I'm having flashbacks to 3rd street during the Rodney riots."
Do you mean 3rd street in LA where the Korean shop owners were defending their stores with assault weapons, or 3rd street in Santa Monica, which was a ghost town?
Dryfly mentioned tumbledweeds at the end of the last thread. Kinda like that here Christmas day!
Exit | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 10:03 pm | #
We'll see tumbleweeds in some of these strip malls by next fall - just takes a season or two w/ out people driving on the parking lots and no maintenance. They sprout up through the cracks in the pavement. Give it some time.
Overcapacity can be such a bitch when people finally realize they don't need the stuff you're retailing.
<i>The black economy appears to thrive in countries where populations distrust the authorities and where corruption is rife. In place like Georgia, Nigeria, Bolivia and Azerbaijan the black economy approaches two-thirds of GDP. Invariably, it appears, the black economy diminishes where transparency increases and the faith of citizens in the authorities and tax policies rises.</i>
sm_landlord: yes.
{note to self -- find out where korean men get machine guns}
"Overcapacity can be such a bitch when people finally realize they don't need the stuff you're retailing."
--Anonymous
Well, Christmas shopping could be classified as 100% discretionary if it weren't for the expectation of gifts by family members and others.
This year, our family negotiated a "Secret Santa" program, in which each member was assigned another member (by draw) to buy a gift for, other gifts prohibited unless they were hand-made.
But we feasted large and consumed mass quantities. All capacity satisfied here.
I can tell you for sure that Kohl's will experience negative sales in the next few weeks. We have some $90 of Kohl's dollars ready to cash in.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 11:22 pm | #
My better half was seriously pissed when she found that I'd missed $30 in Kohl's dollars in a separate bag.
I wonder how close that this is to "scrip" that private entities would issue to purchase items when dollars weren't available? Apart from a sales gimmick?
The black economy is prevalent to some degree in all countries -- as people everywhere fight a temptation to hide income from tax authorities. But the problem is particularly severe in the transition countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. There, in the past, huge parallel economies often arose to fill needs not provided by the state-run sector.
I wonder how big the "shadow economy" will become in the US over the next few years. Will it be like Italy where you go to a store and pay two different prices depending on whether the owner rings it up, triggering the sales tax, and gives you a reciept or you just pay cash and get change.
sm_landlord writes:
But we feasted large and consumed mass quantities. All capacity satisfied here.
This is a much wiser way to spend the holidays. As an experience instead of as a gift.
Does this mean 2 month PCE estimation technique for Q4 may be masking a steeper decline?
Aristophon - your fly fishing in New Zealand suggestion is bang on point. I can recommend, and probably get you, private access to rivers in Otago where you'll get no one next door, and the most colossal trout, because my father in law shoots cormorants like he has cookies with tea. Casually, with determination and accuracy.
The trout is superb, and we mainly gut and prepare bankside, with a small smoker, salted and sugared and hey presto in 40 mins you have fresh smoked trout for lunch.
There are certainly some things I miss about being in DC.
C
"I wonder how big the "shadow economy" will become in the US over the next few years."
--NorkaWest
I think it's going to be huge in LA County, where the sales tax is expected to be 10.25% next year.
I know that I have made plans to stop buying anything other than groceries (and unavoidably, fuel) in LA County for the foreseeable future.
Market has retail sales off by 75% so it all priced in. This is good for a 2000 point gain tomorrow.
Credit enima is coming..... | 12.25.08 - 10:33 pm | #
That's right. Buy stocks now or you'll miss the mother of all rallies.
And to keep those $$$ figures up retailers discounted severely in the race to cut the legs out from under their competitors. So margins will be even worse than the revs figures.
Retail is in a massive over-capacity situation. I expect many failures over the next couple of months. Shoppers will hardly notice, except for the dark spaces. SPG, GGP... however, another story.
Oops - it was Adornosghost not Aristophon who suggested fishing in New Zealand.
My apologies.
C
$40 Kohl's cash ready for cash out this weekend.
Byz - you still up?
C
CNBC:
"Christmas sales fell short of projections. But, gasoline is at $1.55 compared to last years $3.50. Also, car sales are down as are home prices. If you take this years Christmas sales, double the current cost of gasoline, factor in car sales at last years rates and new home sales at 2005 rates, we actually had record high Holiday sales numbers."
Check out the creepy picture of Hank
THE RECKONING; Dollar Shift: Chinese Pockets Filled as Americans' Emptied - NY Times
"Retail is in a massive over-capacity situation. I expect many failures over the next couple of months."
--bearly
I am interested in seeing who survives in the CE space. Around here at least, we have witnessed a battle between the national CE retailers (CC, BB, etc.) vs the local "Crazy Eddie" types, like "Paul the King of Big Screens" and "Video & Audio Center".
CC is already toast, and I'm rooting for BB to fall hard. I hope the "Eddies" and Fry's survive, although Fry's just had to fire their head buyer for taking kickbacks.
I like real retailers over the conglomerate buggers, but I'm afraid that I might be disappointed - BB will probably survive.
lawyerliz writes:
The hub in Fla has nothing to do and hence is reorganizing the pantry. He is bewildered at the number of cans I have stashed away.
He doesn't roll his eyes anymore, but also doesn't understand just how bad it can get.
lawyerliz | 12.25.08 - 5:39 pm | #
From previous thread.
We're also stashing away cans, but I'm branching out into large bags of rice and beans. I've now gotten several friends to start stocking up for "dislocations".
The better half doesn't roll her eyes at all. She - and I - are just frustrated at the amount of crap and disorganization from household construction and family guests over Xmas. There's stuff everywhere and that's going to be my project tomorrow...
peronista, your comment about XOM at $385B in market cap was interesting. Any reason XOM (down only 20%) should outperform the general market given oil and natural gas prices are down significantly?
As for retailers. I am confused. Are gift cards counted as revenue when the gift card is bought or when it is used?
Banks will be given an ultimatum in 2009 by their government: lend or we will nationalize you and lend.
obligatory nihilist anecdote:
got an update from my cousin who is an exec at a major las vegas strip resort on their expansion plans. all plans are shelved for at least a year because of the cost of money and the remarkable internal decision that expansion is just not worth it. they are going through every department and looking at every worker and deciding if they are needed. they just did a round of layoffs and more are coming early next year.
sneering nihilist | 12.25.08 - 11:35 pm | #
A couple of hours ago I was watching part of a show on casinos. They were saying that many of them are putting in lots of new slot machines because they dont call in sick, dont need to get paid, dont need health care, and a few more good reasons. Makes sense to me. I believe it was the discovery channel.
I weep for my free-ish markets:
YouTube -
C
Banks will be given an ultimatum in 2009 by their government: lend or we will nationalize you and lend.
eric in vegas
You got it backwards. Banks tell the government what to do.
Was it my imagination, or were there several financial and TV news reports right after "Black Friday" that portrayed retail sales as decent? What happened to that?
"Banks tell the government what to do."
--Anonymous
For how much longer? The government has the hole card, and could decapitate the banks.
This is wacky. Now you can star in It's a Wonderul Life:
JibJab — It's a JibJab Life. Try a JibJab Sendables eCard for birthdays, anniversaries, holidays and more.
2008 Year In Review:
2008 Year in Review | Funny Video Animation by JibJab
"What happened to that?"
--Brian A.
The spin is off the Frisbee.
For how much longer? The government has the hole card, and could decapitate the banks.
sm_landlord
At what cost to society, the DOW, 401k's, Treasury bonds?
"At what cost to society, the DOW, 401k's, Treasury bonds?"
--Anonymous
Didn't we already make a big down payment on that?
Uncle Billy - fkn brilliant thank you so much. I haven't laughed so much in quite a while...
C
Didn't we already make a big down payment on that?
sm_landlord
Couldn't we make even a bigger one?
cp: enjoy in good health!
Who in this govt. is going to nationalize the banking system? The Republicans as an opposition measure, Dodd, Schumer, Pelosi or Reid? Larry Summers, Geitner? The banks have their money. Grave warnings of massive budget deficits, socialism and govt. interference follow
"Couldn't we make even a bigger one?"
--Anonymous
Oh yes, things could get worse. Having the government take over the lending business would be a very bad thing. And there would be big costs. But it could certainly happen if the political pressure got bad enough.
For example, if trade LOCs don't start getting issued, either the government or someone will make sure that they do.
You are already seeing the government step in to guarantee GMAC and AMEX because the banks would not. I heard that the FED is now buying commercial credit. We are not far from the next steps.
For example, if trade LOCs don't start getting issued, either the government or someone will make sure that they do.
You are already seeing the government step in to guarantee GMAC and AMEX because the banks would not. I heard that the FED is now buying commercial credit. We are not far from the next steps.
sm_landlord
Taxpayers buying crap no one else wants isn't nationalizing the banks
For example, if trade LOCs don't start getting issued, either the government or someone will make sure that they do.
I'm not disputing commercial loans will get done by whatever means, just the consumer side.
"Taxpayers buying crap no one else wants isn't nationalizing the banks"
--Anonymous
True. They are doing it by steps. There is more than one way to do it. Banks could simply be marginalized, in the same way that Wall Street took them out of the mortgage business. By funding GMAC, banks are taken out of the auto finance business. By funding AMEX, banks are taken out of the credit card business. Paypal is threatening the checking business.
Countryfried almost took them out of the mortgage brokerage business, and it remains to be seen how BofA manages that.
The retail banking business is in big trouble and stretching for relevance. Why else would they have been opening branches in supermarkets? It wouldn't take much to push them over the edge at this point.
I mean, if my household loses 5% of its incoming money, we would be fine.
nick | 12.25.08 - 10:07 pm | #
Lots of households run pretty much paycheck-to-paycheck. A 5% swing to the good and the credit cards are getting paid off; a 5% swing to the bad and the hole practically digs itself.
Commercially speaking, numerous businesses (especially grocers) run on less than 5% margins.
The problem with the big-box stores isn't necessarily thin margins, it's the fact that the market they catered to is evaporating. Sure, people will continue to buy their stuff, but not anywhere near at the price and volume they have this past decade. They can't survive in a world where big-screen TVs aren't flying out the door on easy credit.
So, really 'demand destruction' occurred on the way up. Because the demand bubble was destructive to the economy. What we have now is 'demand deflation', reducing demand to a healthy level.
The economy was obese. A demand loss program kicked in.
Non productive works is party to the ailment. Now we need a demand for productive works as part of the cure.
USA 2009 = USSR 1989 or Weimar Germany 1919. Collapse is coming soon. All that bailout artillery barrage money is going all the wrong places, saving bad banks and obsolete retailers, instead of manufacturers. Wasting precious few ammunitions in the middle of night to fight ghosts.
In order to avoid another Great Depression, Bernanke is actually creating even bigger SHTF, the Great Collapse, the same way as "in order to save the village we had to destroy it". History is one clever bitch with a great sense of irony
"most retailers are radically overpaying for retail store space"
bingo - commercial and retail landlords are really shooting themselves in the foot.
in this kind of economy, very few places, office, retail, industrial, are worth over $30/sq/ft/yr, even in manhattan, west la, financial district LA, gold coast, K st and NW DC, back bay etc.
why do they go out of their way to choke the life out of the few viable tenants remaining?
"A demand loss program kicked in. "
there's a reason doctors strongly advise against losing more than three pounds per week
"why do they go out of their way to choke the life out of the few viable tenants remaining?"
--bgates
Because they leveraged themselves into an impossible position. There, but for the grace of God (and some common sense), go I.
A tidbit for the Dawg to chew on when he wakes up:
Targeting the Wasteful, Activists Seek End to California's Waste Board
"and some common sense"
watching the big REITs go down is an illustration of how easily the benefits of economy-of-scale can become the danger of leverage.
dinosaurs and extinction events come to mind.
"dinosaurs and extinction events come to mind."
--bgates
I'm hoping that the mammals get one more bite of the apple.
There, but for the grace of God (and some common sense), go I.
sm_landlord | 12.26.08 - 2:22 am | #
sm_landlord, if I may ask, what's your primary focus in terms of investment properties?
I'm hoping that the mammals get one more bite of the apple.
sm_landlord | 12.26.08 - 2:27 am | #
We will. Every card could fall in place for complete collapse. Odds are, not every card will fall in place for that to happen. The next black swan could be a surprise to the upside. That said, my mind is too small and too tired to think of one right now... could be because it's unpredictable by definition
<i>BEIJING, Dec. 25 (Xinhua) -- China's currency, Renminbi, is likely to join other international currencies to be used for forex reserves by other economies, according to Wu Xiaoling, former vice governor of the country's central bank and now the deputy head of the financial and economic committee under the top legislature. Wu made the remarks in her article carried by the latest annual issue of the leading business magazine Caijing. Wu wrote that China should make preparations in its economic structure and its financial regime for its currency to be internationalized.
---------------------Meanwhile, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Yunnan Province will be allowed to use Renminbi to settle trade payments with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) members, according to a government announcement on Wednesday evening. But the Government did not give any details of how and when the pilot currency program would start. "The move will mitigate the risk of exchange rate fluctuations for Chinese exporters and their trade partners," Zhao Xijun, finance processor at Renmin University of China, was quoted as saying by Thursday's China Daily. Most of China's external trade is settled in U.S. dollar or the euro at present. But, the paper said, many analysts predicted the dollar might depreciate substantially in the coming years because of the ailing U.S. economy.</i>
Senior official: Renminbi likely to be used as currency for forex reserves_English_Xinhua
Wow, they tried to slip that one past us all on christmas day (boxing day here!). Looks like they want to weaken the USD!
"sm_landlord, if I may ask, what's your primary focus in terms of investment properties?"
--Comrade Bear
Multifamily residential purchased a very long time ago and paid for. I haven't put any new money into real estate since 1979, other than improvements. I lost most of what I invested in CRE in 1979 during the late eighties.
My focus since 1991 has been investment in technology ventures and real assets other than real estate. But I still hold and manage multifamily residential. And I might be interested in real estate again if I see value there.
"other than improvements"
i didn't know there were any landlords in california familiar with that term, much less concept
sm_landlord,
Thanks. Any of it rent-controlled? You are in the Republic, of course.
"i didn't know there were any landlords in california familiar with that term, much less concept"
--bgates
Well, if you let your properties go go to hell, you generally go along with them. I'm in a competitive market, such as it is, rent control and all.
"Any of it rent-controlled? You are in the Republic, of course. ;-)"
--Comrade Bear
All of it.
But the compensating factor is that I have a 0% vacancy rate.
No doubt! Who would move under those circumstances?
At least that means you're unlikely to take a hit on rents as the economy tanks over the coming years.
Thanks again. Couldn't help but be curious.
"But the compensating factor"
and, most likely, a 0.2% property tax rate
"We will. Every card could fall in place for complete collapse. Odds are, not every card will fall in place for that to happen"
Well, that was exactly what the bank math geniuses said with their derivative models. And now all the fancy investment banks are gone...US economy is a big fat turkey walking into slaughterhouse.
"At least that means you're unlikely to take a hit on rents as the economy tanks over the coming years."
--Comrade Bear
No, I could still take a hit. But my costs are fairly low. The biggest problem I have is when "lifers" pass away and I have to spend $15K or so bringing the unit up to current standards. And I guess it's not fair to say I have a 0% vacancy rate, because it typically takes two months to get a unit fixed up for the market after someone lets it go. But that doesn't happen often.
@bgates, the tax rate is not as good as you would think. Taxes have been replaced by fees. So I now pay several hundred dollars per month for trash, hundreds more for "water and sewer" fees, hundreds more for "compliance and inspection" costs, thousands in "assessments" for schools, street lighting, etc. All "fees" that did not exist before. The city and county have found ways around prop 13.
"The city and county have found ways around prop 13."
I'm sure that the same stewards of excellence who bring us the paragon of academic prestige that is SMC also have a knack for raising a buck or two.
"I'm sure that the same stewards of excellence who bring us the paragon of academic prestige that is SMC also have a knack for raising a buck or two."
--bgates
Don't even get me started. SMC sells bogus edumacation to the gullible at the expense of the property owners in SM.
I did get them back a bit, but I'm not going to be specific on a public forum. Let's just say that everyone knows their game.
Will it be like Italy where you go to a store and pay two different prices depending on whether the owner rings it up, triggering the sales tax, and gives you a reciept or you just pay cash and get change.
NorkaWest | 12.26.08 - 12:32 am | #
When I lived in Taiwan in the mid 90s, all receipts had lottery numbers on them so that people would demand them from the retailer. Thus, the retailer couldn't hide their profits from the taxman.
At the end of the month, the winning numbers would be published in the paper and my wife and I would go through a drawer full of 'fapiow' to see how much we won. We always made enough winnings to make it worthwhile.
3:40 am on boxing day, and only 9 visitrs online?
Gee ... that's odd.
General Chiang Kai Gerkinov writes:
3:40 am on boxing day, and only 9 visitrs online?
Yes but we are hard core, only the stiffest of the bunch. Stalwarts. Some of us are nuts.
my caption to photo:
THE RECKONING; Dollar Shift: Chinese Pockets Filled as Americans' Emptied - NY Times
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr. (under his breath) : "Release my nuts you queer little asshole..."
President Hu Jintao: '(under his breath) You're just lucky the guy with the decision power to squeeze or not is already on a plane back to peru.. "
Wow, they tried to slip that one past us all on christmas day (boxing day here!). Looks like they want to weaken the USD!
andy in nz | 12.26.08 - 2:42 am | #
No, not trying to weaken the USD.
They are trying to save their economy and hence, their sorry asses.
Every man for himself; Devil take the hind most.
NW
When I lived in Taiwan in the mid 90s, all receipts had lottery numbers on them so that people would demand them from the retailer. Thus, the retailer couldn't hide their profits from the taxman.
General Chiang Kai Gerkinov | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 3:40 am | #
Shhhhh! Quiet.
Don't give our Governator any bright ideas.
What a brilliantly Chinese idea... lottery numbers...hehe...rich.
Have had interesting conversations with my dad since he is in town. Being in CA I asked him about FL finances and he went off on how the Republican lawmakers were blocking Crist's agreement with the Indian casino's which would boost revenues. Seemed to me like he only cared about getting the money, and not that such agreement was within the Constitution or not.
He also went off on the unions, basically said that unions are bad and if the unions don't want to cooperate with business than all jobs should be outsourced to India for cheaper; I mean they only cost 25 cents an hour. Talk about eating your corn seed... we can offshore every-job! I'm not pro-union per se, but I am pro-American and becoming more sensitive to buying cheap foreign items (which in many cases is hard to avoid).
Of course I did just buy a Japanese car, but I've been having all sorts of problems with finding quality clothes. It seems like my pants fall apart after 5 or 6 months.
The word for all the economic self-stimulation...
quanmastive easturbation!
This is not a very... reproductive... action!
YLSP I have Indian contractors that i outsource IT to. I just had this same discussion tonight with a cousin, whose Canadian employer, 1-of-5 big banks, has just given a 120 day notice to 300 people (one department). Outsourcing 'audit' jobs to India. I laughed. I tried to explain why that was bad idea.
So the effects of globalization vibrated at our family Christmas dinner.
>The biggest problem I have is when "lifers" pass away and I have to spend $15K or so bringing the unit up to current standards.<
So you're keeping US veterans in substandard housing?
I do miss Canadien avec popcorn. So sure he was independent.
1 currency soon [yogi] you should really try to get over this politicization stuff. Its really...well, juvenile. Think bigger, you're thinking anyway.
Not boxing day, St. Stephen's Day
Brian A.(Unrated) writes:
Was it my imagination, or were there several financial and TV news reports right after "Black Friday" that portrayed retail sales as decent? What happened to that?
If there was ever an independent mainstream media narrative in America, it's a fading memory today.
The people who release those statistics do so for promotional purposes -- they want you out there buying before the Tickle Me Elmos are gone, not sitting on the sidelines waiting for after-holiday discount sales. The news dutifully reports it just like the sponsors suggest.
The fact that it is orthogonal to reality is immaterial to the process at this point.
Dryfly mentioned tumbledweeds at the end of the last thread. Kinda like that here Christmas day!
Exit | Homepage | 12.25.08 - 10:03 pm | #
We'll see tumbleweeds in some of these strip malls by next fall - just takes a season or two w/ out people driving on the parking lots and no maintenance. They sprout up through the cracks in the pavement. Give it some time.
As a real estate developer I'm trying to figure out what to do with those big box retail centers I built in California early this decade. I'm thinking turn them into gov't-funded homeless shelters? Oh...the irony.
Kondratieff canuk(Unrated) writes:
What a brilliantly Chinese idea... lottery numbers...hehe...rich.
Yah, I wrote that one down.
You could even run it on the retail side too and pay out to both parties in the trx to boost compliance. Maybe rebate the retail locale their trx tax rcpts for a time period.
>Kondratieff canukwrites:
Yanks compared to Canucks are very born and bred Dopes in their politics. We Canucks, and the Brits, and the Auzzie's rip them to shreds whenever possible. It is our calling. If they survive the ripping, we rip them some more.
Religion is a weight around their neck.
My request is, make it so.
\t Kondratieff canuk | \t \t \t \t12.14.08 - 8:23 pm <
Your politics are superb. The problem is the Quenn has not given consent for you to convene Parliament.
Think bigger, O wiseguy.
One would think not being allowed to convene a representative governing body would raise the ire of Canadians, but the dopes seem to take it kneeling down. They prefer Americans do their dirty work.
From 12/24/08 NYT article that rehashes what was hashed on CR years ago...You have to understand how independent brokers work, Mr. Sandler says. They are the whores of the world. Despite that distaste, World Savings made extensive use of brokers.
THE RECKONING; Once Trusted Mortgage Pioneers, Now Pariahs - NY Times
What's left of the republic when the NYT starts sounding like Jas?
"No man's life, liberty or fortune is safe while our legislature is in session." - Ben Franklin
One would think not being allowed to convene a representative governing body would raise the ire of Canadians, but the dopes seem to take it kneeling down.
How many trillions less would the US owe if our congress had gone on vacation for all of 2008?
Don't worry be happy. We can spend even more we don't have in 2009.
What happened, did they override W's veto on some spending bill?
Hi Honey, I'll be home for a more than a while. I got fired. Can you open me a beer and pop some popcorn while I watch football?
JimPortlandOR | 12.25.08 - 11:57 pm | #
or, would you rather watch the rest of the total collapse of Western society
YLSP writes, "It seems like my pants fall apart after 5 or 6 months."
I've noticed this, too. Pants don't last a tenth of the time they used to, even though I'm less active now. 3rd world quality is a state of mind first, then it permeates every area of our lives.
Wait till our president with the 4th world roots and values gets going...
"We will. Every card could fall in place for complete collapse. Odds are, not every card will fall in place for that to happen"
Well, that was exactly what the bank math geniuses said with their derivative models. And now all the fancy investment banks are gone...US economy is a big fat turkey walking into slaughterhouse.
one_timmy | 12.26.08 - 2:56 am | #
there may be some who will pine for the days when we would topple any regime that moved out of dollars, but since oil isn't directly involved with the move by the renminbi then maybe we could let it slide
would this non-action be seen as a Black Swanling? it was factored into those geniuses model as one that would never happen
oops
Tumbleweeds (Salsola iberica ssp Sennen, a.k.a. Russian Thistle) are a non-native invasive considered a noxious weed by the USDA. It was introduced to North America less than 150 years ago, and now springs up in every western state, often surviving drought while native species die.
On the plus side, there are some marginally edible parts to the plant--but you won't see them coming to your farmer's market anytime soon (except to roll through the empty square).
Creative destruction....
What happened, did they override W's veto on some spending bill?
LA Times Nov 07- "Intensifying his battle with Congress over federal spending, President Bush on Tuesday vetoed an appropriations bill for the first time, rejecting $150.7 billion in spending for school aid, healthcare and other domestic programs.
But as he complained about the cost of that bill, which would have increased spending on these programs by 4.3% over last year, Bush signed a $471-billion defense appropriations bill that pushed up military spending by more than 9.5%.
And he urged Congress to quickly appropriate $196 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan."
Bush vetoes domestic spending bill - Los Angeles Times
Damn, these sums look puny compared to the trillions he gave to Wall Street.
471 + 196 = 667 billion
these guys must be into numerology
yogi - that's the Mighty Quenn, no?
Bound to usher in a new era of prosperity.
C
What people keep believing is that the Conservatives are trying to "save the economy" or have any interest in America's well-being. Even when they are showing you every day that they mean to destroy America (which was liberal) and replace it with an armed slave camp. Why do slaves need healthcare or education ... ? Of course the Establishment needs more money for weapons, to "protect" us.
It is a very durable belief in America that the Cons are who they said they were. Americans have "confidence" in the good ol' boys. So the next act will be interesting.
The cons are already blaming whoever else they can, and some, incredibly enough, will still belieeeeeeve.
America really is going to let the Upper Class bleed them out like the slaughtered cattle they are. They are now rendered into good, Conservative cattle: the better for the eating.
Queen takes Ottawa. Spellcheck mate.
Counterpointer writes:
Aristophon - your fly fishing in New Zealand suggestion is bang on point. I can recommend, and probably get you, private access to rivers in Otago where you'll get no one next door, and the most colossal trout, because my father in law shoots cormorants like he has cookies with tea. Casually, with determination and accuracy.
he's destroying inland shags
gonna be a lot of unhappy kiwis, inland shags is what they come for as the temps soar in central otago, particularly at this time of year (lots of women binge drinking in the festive season)
(lots of women binge drinking in the festive season)
kiewi | 12.26.08 - 8:01 am | #
Okay, I'm in.
would this non-action be seen as a Black Swanling? it was factored into those geniuses model as one that would never happen
How can you describe an inevitable event as a "Black Swan"?
In retrospect, you can see how Evil doesn't start off as Evil. It starts off as "benevolence" and then gets caught in a compromise, and then another, and finally it's backed into a corner.
Like Congress.
Or Madoff.
I wonder about Madoff, about ending a notable career of many decades, of many actions & associations, only to end it with "con artist" and "scam" scrawled on everything.
How could an ego handle that?
Was he hoping he would die first?
I'm back to Seattle today, I guess.
Inland shags?? Now that's marketing we can all believe in. 100% pure. Let's hope.
Still working on my January watchlist of doom. Will post later today.
yogi - Queen takes Ottawa seems so ... 18th Century. Is this reversion to mean?
C
The governor of the Bank of Spain on Sunday issued a bleak assessment of the economic crisis, warning that the world faced a "total" financial meltdown unseen since the Great Depression.
"The lack of confidence is total," Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said in an interview with Spain's El Pais daily.
"The inter-bank (lending) market is not functioning and this is generating vicious cycles: consumers are not consuming, businessmen are not taking on workers, investors are not investing and the banks are not lending.
"There is an almost total paralysis from which no-one is escaping," he said, adding that any recovery -- penciled in by optimists for the end of 2009 and the start of 2010 -- could be delayed if confidence is not restored.
pooki writes:
or, would you rather watch the rest of the total collapse of Western society
These are the days when we trod through Babylon.
We keep on trodding until Babylon falls.
I'm back to Seattle today, I guess.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 8:20 am | #
I'll call ahead and warn the authorities.
The_Littlest_Mandarin writes:
pooki writes:
or, would you rather watch the rest of the total collapse of Western society
These are the days when we trod through Babylon.
We keep on trodding until Babylon falls.
The_Littlest_Mandarin | 12.26.08 - 8:28 am | #
sort of like watching the Raiders
Volker the Viking writes:
I'll call ahead and warn the authorities.
Cat gotten tired of you again, Volker?
Bloomberg is so much better than CNBC
Pooki--
More like the Capital One Vikings.
was it quiet in Detroit or what?
sm_landlord writes:
A tidbit for the Dawg to chew on when he wakes up:
Targeting the Wasteful, Activists Seek End to California's Waste Board
Thanks, I had a similar experience trying to reform the structure of Ventura Counties' 108 water districts back in the 90s.
The article highlights what is IMO the #1 problem with California governance and dysfunction; lifetime politicians. #2 of course is that the megaregion is far too large for a nominally democratic State organizational structure.
JR writes:
What people keep believing is that the Conservatives are trying to "save the economy" or have any interest in America's well-being.
The problem with your plan to hang all this around the neck of "Conservatives" is that first you have to find a conservative. There hasn't been one holding high office for decades. Just because a certain political party likes to imagine itself as conservative doesn't make it so. Conservative is as conservative does.
Pakistan Moving Troops Away From Afghan Border - International News | News of the World | Middle East News | Europe News - FOXNews.com
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan Pakistan began moving thousands of troops away from the Afghan border toward India on Friday amid tensions following the Mumbai attacks, intelligence officials said.
The move represents a sharp escalation in the standoff between the nuclear-armed neighbors and will hurt Pakistan's U.S.-backed campaign against Al Qaeda and Taliban taking place near Afghanistan's border.
Two intelligence officials said the army's 14th Division was being redeployed to Kasur and Sialkot, close to the Indian border. They said some 20,000 troops were on the move. Earlier Friday, a security official said that all troop leave had been canceled.
Woo. And a Gaza incursion warming up, probably including action on the Lebanese front.
Oh the twilight of the mad emperor's reign will be a splendid thing.
Cat gotten tired of you again, Volker?
The_Littlest_Mandarin | 12.26.08 - 8:31 am | #
Oh no. She never tires of perching atop the antique Chinese armoire and staring herself to sleep.
I'm back to Seattle today, I guess.
Broward Horne
I'll call ahead and warn the authorities.
Volker the Viking
Snigger, good one. I imagine he was referring to balmy climate of the PNW which is so miserable even the econuts of Seattle and Portland are open to listening to alternative global warming theories.
I imagine he was referring to balmy climate of the PNW which is so miserable even the econuts of Seattle and Portland are open to listening to alternative global warming theories.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 8:37 am | #
What else can one do when hopped up on caffeine whilst buried to the hubs in unsalted snow?
## I'll call ahead and warn the authorities.
I'm used to being slandered.
I'm fairly sure I'm only wanted in Florida at the moment.
.
Anony - alternative headline "Bank of Spain Gov says Sh!tpile Not His Fault".
In an increasingly desperate bid to keep his job, the Governor of the Bank of Spain has decided to issue a weekly announcement of impending collapse caused by external forces for which he cannot be held accountable.
"It's a disaster. There is no armada to the future. Foreign forces have designed an entrapment strategy for our finest upstanding financiers, and we head into the new year as vulnerable as we were in '75. I don't think anyone could have predicted the extraordinary pressures on the central bank occasioned by this crisis. Our success will be measured in mitigation and survival, not an early return of prosperity. The central bank will play a leading role in this response, and will endure despite the predations of the ECB. God be with you all, because no one else is."
The Governor confirmed that he was not personally exposed to the Madoff ponzi, but noted that those fkwits at Santander were.
Hoocoodanode!?
C
Woo. And a Gaza incursion warming up, probably including action on the Lebanese front.
Oh the twilight of the mad emperor's reign will be a splendid thing.
The_Littlest_Mandarin
Paki/India stare down. Israelis rockets raining down on Gaza. All we need now is Iran to act up and POOF! $100 crude.
## What else can one do when hopped up on caffeine whilst buried to the hubs in unsalted snow?
Volker the Viking
I shouldn't throw stones in my own glass house. I'm up because the wind machines in the orchards are running full blast. It's 34º here so it's likely 30 in the low spots. So cold the damn cats won't sit on my legs. They look like fur covered bowling balls with about two sq in of contact area on the chair.
Seriously, the PNW weather is another black swan of 2008. Snowiest on record in places. It is amazing our capacity for denial until we discover ourselves hubcap deep in ice & snow or financial excrement.
All we need now is Iran to act up and POOF! $100 crude.
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 8:46 am | #
more like just poof
I wish you a very happy new year!!!
HAPPY AND ABUDANT!
Stock Buster.
ABUDANT?
Stock Buster writes:
I wish you a very happy ABUDANT!
we have a new holiday
Black Swan: India and Pakistan?
A Bud ant? An ant that likes shitty beer?
Hedgies Are Not Nice : Part XXVIII of a Series
Bloomberg.com
C
Dave of SV writes:
Black Swan: India and Pakistan?
I may be a minority but I don't think so. Having nuclear weapons on both sides serves to focus the attention of leaders who would otherwise have no qualms about picking a fight.
El tiempo esta soleado.
How do you say "the weather is sunny" in spanish?
Rob Dawg writes:
Dave of SV writes:
Black Swan: India and Pakistan?
I may be a minority but I don't think so.
To remain in power in Pakistan and India, at least once a year you have to rattle your sabre as you point your finger towards the east or the west.
some nice take on it from a marxist.. well worth reading..
Part 1
The World Economic Crisis: A Marxist Analysis
Part 2
The World Economic Crisis: A Marxist Analysis
Part 3
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/dec2008/nbe3-d22.shtml
Part 4
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/dec2008/nbe4-d23.shtml
Part 5
The World Economic Crisis: A Marxist Analysis
enjoy and dont be put of by the word "marxist" he has some harsh words for the left too...
Naked Capitaism:
And Palley gave a broader view of the fundamental problem in an early 2008 post:
With regard to lengthened economic expansions, the great moderation has been driven by asset price inflation and financial innovation, which have financed consumer spending. Higher asset prices have provided collateral to borrow against, while financial innovation has increased the volume and ease of access to credit. Together, that created a dynamic in which rising asset prices have supported increased debt-financed spending, thereby making for longer expansions. This dynamic is exemplified by the housing bubble of the last eight years.
The important implication is that the Great Moderation is the result of a retreat from full employment combined with the transitional factors of disinflation, asset price inflation, and increased consumer borrowing. Those factors now appear exhausted. Further disinflation will produce disruptive deflation. Asset prices (particularly real estate) seem above levels warranted by fundamentals, making for the danger of asset price deflation. And many consumers have exhausted their access to credit and now pose significant default risks.
Given this, the Great Moderation could easily come to a grinding halt. Though high inflation is unlikely to return, recessions are likely to deepen and linger. If that happens the reputations of central bankers will sully, and the real foundation and hidden costs of the Great Moderation may surface. That could prompt a re-writing of history that restores demands for a return to true full employment with diminished income inequality. How we tell history really does matter
From the WSJ on top picks of 2008. You guys finished just ahead of Roubini
2008 Lookback: Best Calls of the Year - MarketBeat - WSJ
Yoringe :
Thanks for the articles.
"So I now pay several hundred dollars per month for trash"
sm_landlord : you should encourage your tenants to compost. will cut down your garbage load by about 50%.
just take some of the big plastic trash buckets, drill some holes in the side, and voila...put some potting soil and/or shredded newspaper next to it and tell them to layer everytime it gets a little smelly..
"Black Swan: India and Pakistan?"
Perhaps we'll know within a short period of time. There are troop movements reported.
re: gift cards (same-store) and revenue recognition (GAAP) as distinct from realized and earned revenue
Revenue Recognition in the Retail industry | RevenueRecognition.com
These accounting topics are more complicated when the a third party (e.g. AmEx, airline) issues redeemable units (cards, "points," coupons) to buyers on behalf of multiple, contracted sellers. Then, arguably, the unit ("gift card") currency and credit function is effectively "scrip."
Perhaps we'll know within a short period of time. There are troop movements reported.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.26.08 - 9:47 am | #
Is this news that can be illuminated by a poster somewhat closer to the action? It seems the Indians and Pakistani are always at odds to some extent. It's when the Chinese mass troop I start to worry.
$500 for a woodworking machine...
was it a japanese handsaw?
"The lack of confidence is total," Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said in an interview with Spain's El Pais daily.
"The inter-bank (lending) market is not functioning and this is generating vicious cycles: consumers are not consuming, businessmen are not taking on workers, investors are not investing and the banks are not lending.
Typical banker. He thinks the reason people who would have to pay 50%+ of their takehome income to keep their houses are cutting back on expenses (or defaulting) is -
That the banks won't lend to each other.
Fair economist:
My argument.. these guys are may very smart but they start at wrong theories.. wich evaporates the smart part...
Hedgies Are Not Nice : Part XXVIII of a Series
Shouldn't that be Part MMMDCCLXXVI or something?
......so many are still clueless and in the dark.
"......you should encourage your tenants to compost......" - since when does a tenant care about anything the landlord has to endure. The landlord is always considered "rich", "tight", and totally "unreasonable".
black star, i'm a tenant and i consider my landlord, b/c my landlord is one of the very few cool ones in NYC.
plus, the compost bins make killer soil for rooftop gardening.
sometimes, you have to edge some people along...encourage people to engage in win/win behaviors vs. the terminal us vs. them mentality.
after living in santamonica for several years, i can personally attest that it's much more possible there than elsewhere...
General Chiang and Norka West:
"When I lived in Taiwan in the mid 90s, all receipts had lottery numbers on them so that people would demand them from the retailer. Thus, the retailer couldn't hide their profits from the taxman.
At the end of the month, the winning numbers would be published in the paper and my wife and I would go through a drawer full of 'fapiow' to see how much we won. We always made enough winnings to make it worthwhile."
Exactly.... and they still have them. this is the just the measure to raise revenue when trying to milk indigenous interest in games of chance.
When I was lucky enough to live in Taipei, we'd keep even the receipt from a tea egg at NT10 to increase our chances, and as you note, it was often worth the trouble.
Gov't sharing spoils from extortion makes for a greater take is central to all that ails us, benefits us...
Coming soon, etc, etc,?
indigenous?
no, endogenous!
I'm mortified.
Volker: ## Is this news that can be illuminated by a poster somewhat closer to the action? It seems the Indians and Pakistani are always at odds to some extent. It's when the Chinese mass troop I start to worry."
I'd worry too, but they've got their own issues (love that word) to deal with.
I had lunch with a well educated Indian a while ago, post-Bombay atrocity. His casual take was that the event was simply a wake up call, P was a mess, and military action would be expected by any decent thinking Indian. After all, that's what arms are for. I was pretty shaken by this, and had no mood for coffee.
Re: Holes in your clothing. An interesting tidbit to consider.
Back in the day I worked for the big cotton broker W.B. Dunavant. I recently looked 'em up just to see what they were up to.
My boss's son now runs the firm. Saw an article he wrote that says roundup ready cotton has hurt fiber strength. Seems the staple is shorter and weaker with transgenic seed. That would explain holes in your socks, pants, towels, etc. BTW, I've noticed it too. Monsanto, of course, is sayin' it ain't true.
The old Sears towels wore like iron. And burlington socks lasted for several years.
Don't know if it's true. Seems they're investigating it.
I, too, had been wondering why I'd been getting so many holes and rips in my cotton pants lately.
Guess some of the stores are not hurting. Just got back from Sears and they would not bargin on a new fridge at all. Refused to even listen to my offer.
DD
A friend has a FedEx route in an affluent area near Boston. His holiday traffic was up 10% from last year. Amazon is also up, so it makes some sense. He wasn't sure if he got some business away from DHL, so that could have contributed as well.
He also went off on the unions, basically said that unions are bad and if the unions don't want to cooperate with business than all jobs should be outsourced to India for cheaper; I mean they only cost 25 cents an hour. Talk about eating your corn seed...
Yes, it's the penal colony mentality. Bust unions; bust US workers; bust those who dare want a living. Then jail 'em.
This is the post-industrial narrative from Reagan down through Clinton and Bush. Now the superstructure is going busto (with gusto), and along with panic and deprivation, the collapse may put a measure of power back in the hands of ordinary folk.
Angry ordinary folk. With a simple message. Dear overlords: tremble.