.....I wonder if CR has these stories set to pre-post at a particular time or situation, or if he stays huddled away in his electronic cave and constantly spits out material day and night???
Is he really like a man behind the curtain that needs sun shipped in?
....the constant ebb and flow is normal, but THIS time, everything "feels" different. I figured a long while back we'd run the wheels off this engine or the pendulum would swing a bit more to the edge upsetting the dominos, and I think this might be that time.
One difference I have noticed though: more and more people here have started using casino chips around town as currency. Haven't seen that since the sixties & seventies.
8.1% month over month is almost untrackable. Clearly this is not a contraction. When CR says correctly "cliff diving" what is being described is a literal dislocation. Things aren't changing rapidly, things are changing instantaneously and we don't have a social or economic system in place capable of responding to such discontinuities.
Unemployment: The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 715,496 in the week ending Dec. 20, an increase of 85,629 from the previous week. There were 456,272 initial claims in the comparable week in 2007.
Not to worry, the SA numbr is a mere 586,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 556,000. The 4-week moving average was 558,000, an increase of 13,750 from the previous week's revised average of 544,250.
...and nowadays, casinos have to post legal notices when they'll stop cashing in their chips. Banks don't have to do THAT! And with banks, everybody and their brother knows about it...
some kind of Informal banking system based on "Hawala".. wich the casino Chip storie indicates allready happens..
btw did it ever occur to you that the Banks in exchange for TARP money just hand over client data??
Like in " you get all the Money you want if you just let these NSA guys get access to your computers, because we have to keep track of the guys who pay the bill"
Comrade Misean,
Good to have you back these last few days.
Yes, JIT and communications are about to bite back. What scares me is the near seizure of supply partner credit. If that persists we'll have a full on worldwide depression and no way to restart trade.
"What scares me is the near seizure of supply partner credit."
As I've said it's the modern era's version of trade tarriffs. I doubt it matters why International trade drops off, only it's impacts. The reason for it won't change the result.
AR Shadow - in the US, it is the Federal Reserve. You can get the releases <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/default.htm">here.</a>
Since we are doing such a good job of scaring the cr@p out of each other I'd like to mention another 800lb gorilla. China has been reneging on several fronts. They are young to international commerce and also arrogant as to their standing. You just plain old cannot refuse a letter of credit without severe consequences. I predict a raw materials crisis when Australian companies refuse to commit to any shipments on any terms. And there goes the BDI to newer lows.
Rob Dawg: "Yes, JIT and communications are about to bite back. What scares me is the near seizure of supply partner credit. If that persists we'll have a full on worldwide depression and no way to restart trade.
Let's watch the Korean chip manufacturers."
What's left of the banks may revert to the tried and true (albeit labor intensive and boring) business of financing trade.
After all they've got collateral w/ the goods.
If you're right about that side tightening or shutting down, then I'm already in my vege garden, showing the kids how to prune.
Who is the next retailer to BK? Is there a betting pool? Besides the stock market, I mean.
A hobby store chain? A mall based video and or game store? A national men's clothing store? How are Sharper Image and Brookstone doing? Pottery Bard, Williams-Sonoma... too easy. What about aggressively expanded fast foodies? I love Baja Fresh but do enough others to support so many expensive locations?
Coupla reasons. They report honestly, their flash and ram stuff is very sensitive to the economy and the market for the types of products is mature thus avoiding volatility and technology problems with the numbers.
Leveraged ETFs blamed for volatility in REITs. Anyone holding SRS take note.
Comrade V
Too bad. Free market capitalism(LOL)works both ways. Multi-millionaires/billionaires CRE owners over leveraged and guessed wrong. Blaming it on an ETF is foolish. Their business model falls off a cliff with each 1% increase in vacancy and each 1% decrease in rents. Buzzards are circling.
Jamba Juice. Usually full of teens hanging out or younger kids just out of soccer practice, etc. Pretty empty lately. The one at the mall is busy, but that's more of a convenient-and-quick-mall-food issue.
Macy's == TBTF.
I don't know how Kohl's does it but they do do it. If they are in trouble their books are seriously deep in the Madoff. They look profitable and are trading at a moderate P/E.
bubblevision -- "The average recession lasts 13-15 months so that means the bull market is upon us. Markets anticipate the rebound"
These guys still manage other peoples' money ? It's remarkable to me that they still have any left to shuffle around. And this is the hard-driving analysis that's supposed to scare what little money is left out of treasuries into taking risk ?
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on November 17 that the 2009 renewable fuel standard (RFS) will require most refiners, importers, and non-oxygenate blenders of gasoline to displace 10.21% of their gasoline with renewable fuels such as ethanol. That requirement aims to ensure that at least 11.1 billion gallons of fuels will be sold in 2009. .
I am getting ready to do some errands with the family and observe my other retail indicator. The trash factor.
Check out whats on the curb or piled up by the cans. Drive through a few different hoods. I remember a few years ago we celebrated the year of the TV. Old TVs on the curbs everywhere.
Coupla reasons. They report honestly, their flash and ram stuff is very sensitive to the economy and the market for the types of products is mature thus avoiding volatility and technology problems with the numbers.
Rob Dawg | 12.26.08 - 11:09 am | #
Thanks, makes sense as a cyclical tell. But re trade financing are they as dependent on the standard L/C's as, say, soybean exporters? I'd be more worried about component, mineral or ag trade freezing up. Already there have been exporter difficulties w/ opening bank approvals. Confirmations of L/C's by third parties proceed, but only for a select group of opening banks where it's not needed as much anyway.
Traders don't know whether to be more concerned about their lines, their customers' lines, or the specific credit. Not to mention customers'customers, Best Buy?
As pointed out by others above, what trade doesn't happen doesn't happen regardless of ptb intentions. Don't need an act of congress to shut down int'l trade.
Comrade V writes:
If you really want to get scared, here is what some of the red dog survivalists down here are quoting today:
Old news. These reports are always being produced. There's scenarios for invading Mexico, capturing the Alberta tar sands, intercepting terrorist trained dolphins, hypersonic lawn darts from space. There's little likelihood for domestic unrest sufficient to call out the regular army. Part of the reason there is little chance is precisely because we study and plan for all contingencies.
I would say based on the Bloomberg story that the India and Pakistan conflict is worse than what US MSM is reporting. When India tells its citizens to leave, or not to travel there, bad things are happening.
It reads like the Pakistan gov. is in the early stages of a civil war, or at least a slo mo coup. They are losing control of the regional police.
Rob Dawg writes: There's little likelihood for domestic unrest sufficient to call out the regular army.
I would disagree but there's very little reason to worry about it anyway.
Any reason there's going to be that kind of serious civil distrubance will involve not paying the troops or buying supplies.
Fighting dictatorial rule was more of a concern when the Bushites were playing around with the idea of Tyranny. Now that their lack of performance has put overthrowing the Republic effectively off the menu the real concern is state fragmentation due to failure to fund central gvt. ops.
Any kind of rule imposed in the wake of that will be temporary -- not that you might not end up in jail forever or dead from it, but any sort of response with a militant character will just exacerbate the fiscal crisis.
This is Japan, folks! The powerhouse. This is getting scary but at least the Japanese have a lot in savings that they can live on and the government has $1 trillion in cash. What do we have here in the U.S.? Treasuries for sale!
There's little likelihood for domestic unrest sufficient to call out the regular army
Oh ye of little faith. I've seen these patrols on the I-405 twice now. A convey of about ten Humvees and Strykers, gun cockpits manned and armed like they were in Iraq.
I don't remember seeing anything like this before, even during the late 1970s. We moved armor around but I don't remember being cocked-n-locked on civilian roadways. I noticed both conveys in November. I was in Seattle for about two years and never saw this before.
Thanks, makes sense as a cyclical tell [Korean chips]. But re trade financing are they as dependent on the standard L/C's as, say, soybean exporters? I'd be more worried about component, mineral or ag trade freezing up. Already there have been exporter difficulties w/ opening bank approvals. Confirmations of L/C's by third parties proceed, but only for a select group of opening banks where it's not needed as much anyway.
The Korean commodity chip makers have mature supply chains. If they are losing confidence in their longstanding counterparties then things are really bad. It doesn't matter for our purposes whether there is more of less L/C sensitivity. I imagine less.
The bulk raw materials/foodstuffs are slow to respond. I'm looking for a fast sensitive metric. Not that there's anything wrong with looking at Australian ore volumes but IMO that's rear looking data.
And Gen. Tommy Franks, who led the U.S. military operations to liberate Iraq, said in a 2003 interview that if the U.S. is attacked with a weapon of mass destruction, the Constitution will likely be discarded in favor of a military form of government.
Now this should scare the pantyhose off a very tall horse.
Broward Horne writes:
There's little likelihood for domestic unrest sufficient to call out the regular army
Oh ye of little faith. I've seen these patrols on the I-405 twice now. A convey of about ten Humvees and Strykers, gun cockpits manned and armed like they were in Iraq.
Relax. They were just moving coke, crack and meth north from Mexico.
That'll teach them to run there economy on a vendor finance model. Lucent anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Comrade Misean is Dope | 12.26.08 - 10:24 am | #
Amen. Most old fuddies like me have been wondering how and when they were going to get paid - oh wait - looking at the debt overhang & effect on dollar - looks like never. Hoocoodanode.
Maybe now they'll put more energy to develop a full blown 'Sushi Cutting, Geisha & Karaoke Economy' - sounds more advanced then our 'Burger Flipping and Indian Casino Economy'. Result is the same though - fiat velocity w/in Japan independent of US dollahs...
And Gen. Tommy Franks, who led the U.S. military operations to liberate Iraq, said in a 2003 interview that if the U.S. is attacked with a weapon of mass destruction, the Constitution will likely be discarded in favor of a military form of government.
Evidently Gen. Franks was wrong when he called Doug Feith "the dumbest motherf#cker on the planet"
Broward Horne writes: Oh ye of little faith. I've seen these patrols on the I-405 twice now. A convey of about ten Humvees and Strykers, gun cockpits manned and armed like they were in Iraq.
"I would say based on the Bloomberg story that the India and Pakistan conflict is worse than what US MSM is reporting."
Hard to interpret; Paks know that taking presure off insurgents to Northwest makes U.S. uneasy, and forces us to intercede, so its partly symbolic. Large scale troop movements have happened before in recent history with no consequences. Not like the old days when Indians decrypted Pakistan general staff war council and launched decapitation air strike against their HQ. Nuclear weapons do deter such pre-emptive reflex actions.
Comrade Volker the Viking writes: And Gen. Tommy Franks, who led the U.S. military operations to liberate Iraq, said in a 2003 interview that if the U.S. is attacked with a weapon of mass destruction, the Constitution will likely be discarded in favor of a military form of government.
With The Decider in charge!
Didn't that just work out! We can get the expertise at conquest and rule that made our overthrow of the Tyrant of Bagdad such a rousing success! And with no economy or budget since it'll be within our own borders!
Can I just begin running in circles and screaming now to beat the rush?
8.1% month over month is almost untrackable. Clearly this is not a contraction. When CR says correctly "cliff diving" what is being described is a literal dislocation. Things aren't changing rapidly, things are changing instantaneously and we don't have a social or economic system in place capable of responding to such discontinuities. Rob Dawg | 12.26.08 - 10:26 am | #
To feed on that theme some more & Misean's 'vendor financing' - a little anecdotal with your morning coffee:
Just before Xmas I talked on the phone w/ the head of customer service at a supplier I support - we were discussing the Japanese transplant I call on for them - lotsa issues lately with our quality [our fault => seems round eyes get dumber in the front end of recessions & think they can ship any old shit to boost monthly billing - not to Japanese you can't]... anyway we discussed all the open items. In closing she said - "I'll get to it as soon as I can. We have bigger fish to fry."
I reply "Say what?" She follows up by adding that their largest customer [a big US MNC competing against my Japanese transplant] hadn't paid their bills in two weeks. I replied... "Wow - that sucks - you all do a ton with them. Well at least it is only two weeks. At least they aren't into you for 120 plus days like the automotive guys." There was silence - then she said quietly... "They are into us for WAY MORE than 120 days."
And this is NOT automotive. Vehicle related machinery but NOT highway automotive. BTW the Japanese all pay us w/in 10 days - why we hose them and treat the deadbeat domestics like Gods is beyond me [maybe it's because we CAN send the domestics crap product and they eat it all up - just don't pay their bills on time, maybe not at all - we'll see]...
I think there is a lot of this going on out there we mere mortals know nothing about. Until the cliff diving happens that is.
funny you should mention it. i was tossing the remnants of toy packaging into the recycle bin last night- amused and more than a little pleased that i didnt have to mash it down.
Will the markets react to an Israeli invasion of Gaza? When that results in a shower of Iranian built missiles, and Israeli airstikes on Iran, which subsequently closes the Hormuz Strait, things will get more interesting. Happy New Year.
Joanna writes:
"I read Ure as an alt/kook news aggregator when I'm too lazy to go through my own sources, but his track record with the webbot stuff is pretty poor."
I wrote all that I know. It seems unusual to me. I've been all over the U.S. in the past five years and I don't remember seeing a convoy on the road ready for combat.
I don't remember seeing a convoy on the road ready for combat.
Broward Horne
I agree. Last thing any ambitious officer wants is an incident on US soil. Very unusual. When I was overseas no one was even issued live rounds until someone with lots of stars was responding to an incident.
Broward Horne writes: I wrote all that I know. It seems unusual to me. I've been all over the U.S. in the past five years and I don't remember seeing a convoy on the road ready for combat.
Understood. Noted. You see all kinds of military activities in a civilian context these days. I see hushed choppers in my locale all the time -- 500 series and AH-64. Most people don't notice it 'cause they don't "chop" but they are often running up and down the valleys hereabout in the afternoon and no doubt they snoop around at night as well.
I just don't think they're going to go anywhere with it now that the Bushites aren't in a position to establish a Tyranny with it.
see hushed choppers in my locale all the time -- 500 series and AH-64. Most people don't notice it 'cause they don't "chop" but they are often running up and down the valleys hereabout in the afternoon
DEA?
A few years back I saw 2 F-18's glues to a Lear or Gulfstream flying at about 2K yards up. This was Fairfax, right outside of DC. I asked around and no one had a clue nor was it reported.
Client does large business importing and distributing "hearth" products, basically those metal furnance boxes you retrofit fireplaces with, and OEMs them all over U.S., for sale in Costco, etc. Manufacturing done in China. His business still doing surprisngly well, but ...
He explained that majority of Chinese factories (in his experience) were very thinly capitalized and heavily reliant on government financing. When orders slacked off, financing disappeared, and poof went large double digit perecentage of factories. He is now dominant customer for his laregest supplier. Essentially, as he tells it, he now "owns" the factory without ever having to invest. Sorry no data, just interesting perspective.
FWIW - we see plenty of convoy's here in the Upper Midwest... most are southern state Nat'l Guard units heading to Camp Ripley in central Minnesota to do some quick and dirty winter theater training before going to Afghanistan. Those guys always look like some unhappy dudes.
I was stationed at Knoxville and Redstone Arsenal. Like I said, I don't ever remember driving down the road and then looking up into the barrel of a M-60 and a pair of night vision goggles.
I think I would have remembered that.
Anyway, I'm not headed south, I'm headed west! West Seattle and a week+ of wild sex!
.
Not with AH-64 unless they are really up-gunning lately.
I've just seen them in transit, not practicing pop-ups or anything. I presume they are practicing over-urban ops but I don't really check. They are definitely minimizing profile though -- no flying above the local ridgelines, no hovering, flying with the stutter cut if that is an on-off thing.
He explained that majority of Chinese factories (in his experience) were very thinly capitalized and heavily reliant on government financing. When orders slacked off, financing disappeared, and poof went large double digit perecentage of factories. He is now dominant customer for his laregest supplier. Essentially, as he tells it, he now "owns" the factory without ever having to invest. Sorry no data, just interesting perspective. Comrade V | 12.26.08 - 12:10 pm | #
I've heard the same story over and over - different sectors. The industrial base in China is an inch deep and a mile wide with a weather forecast of 'hot and dry' for as far as the weatherman can see... Japan's though is (or was until recently) MUCH deeper - that is what makes CR's Cliff Diving story so concerning.
..."Wow - that sucks - you all do a ton with them. Well at least it is only two weeks. At least they aren't into you for 120 plus days like the automotive guys." There was silence - then she said quietly... "They are into us for WAY MORE than 120 days."...
-dryfly | 12.26.08 - 11:54 am
Hmmm. That's interesting. That sounds a lot like the telecom scene in 2001-2002, except the slowdown is affecting a broad cross-section of the economy just about everywhere...
The last time Pakistan lost a war to India there were no WMDs at issue. If Pakistan begins to experience an existential threat there could be big trouble. It's enough to make a person feel uneasy.
A stone cast into a pond causes ripples to expand outward.
My pick for a retail casualty in 2009 is WSM. I am actually surprised it's still keeping its lights on.
But hey, as overcapacitized as homebuilding is and as weak as many of the builders are, I am amazed we haven't seen a BK yet in that space. How do HOV & BZH still have a pulse ?
have seen the same thing on the 215 near Riverside. i see lots of armor on the freeways as i live near pendleton- this was seriously out of place tho. i stopped and stared as twenty or so APCs, humvees and such went by, guns at the ready.
They use current climate modeling techniques assuming a limited nuclear exchange. Spooky stuff. They mention in the paper that the smoke and soot from burning cities in WWII caused a significant cooling effect for several years after the end of the war.
come to think of it- last week i saw something else: two groups of three very large planes, flying very low, with minimal lights headed north over Temecula. i dont know planes, so i cant even guess what they were, but they were too quiet for their size and altitude. almost silent.
im sure its nothing.
The central bank tries to devalue the ruble as fast as it only can without attracting too much unwelcome attention of the speculators, many of whom are on vacation now, said Evgeny Nadorshin, a senior economist at Trust Investment Bank in Moscow. The less speculations, the more reserves the central bank keeps for itself in the short term.
LOL. Love this shit. Unfortunately, vacation doesn't last forever, Russia....
I'm waiting for India and Pakistan to fire it up by the way. The solution to overcapacity is at hand! I work with a financial analyst here in Dubai, sharp guy too, from Mumbai, who spend 45 minutes at lunch the other day (non-stop) telling us how all of the problems in the world basically result from the failed state of Pakistan. He said his plan for Pakistan is to have mushroom clouds rising from as many cities as possible.
Dryfly - regarding your anecdote, I heard from a Motorola employee that not only did they dump the pension, freeze wages and elminate bonuses and 401k matches, but they recalculated the pension contribution and went into employees' accounts and removed some of the balances.
Cash shortage, all the way. It's very hard to believe companies financials, these days.
China has been reneging on several fronts. They are young to international commerce and also arrogant as to their standing. You just plain old cannot refuse a letter of credit without severe consequences.
Young? I thought Europeans found America while they were looking for their spices!
They've been working for peanuts while Americans have been living high off the hog. They now have 1 trillion in US $ reserve which the Americans are trying to devalue and you call them arrogant?!
They now have 1 trillion in US $ reserve which the Americans are trying to devalue ...
Au contraire -- the value manipulation has been on the Chinese side. The entire basis of the Brobingnagian Chinese vendor financing fraud has been the Chinese government's willingness to buy US dollars from its exporters at ludicrous rates between 6.8 (current peg) and 8.2 yuan (the peg for many years).
Because the buying power of a US dollar is only a small fraction of the buying power of that many yuan, the Chinese people took probably an 80% loss on those transactions the moment they took place. It is only the "realization" of those losses that remains to occur.
The equivalent would be for the US government to promote exports to Europe by pledging to buy pay out $10 for every Euro brought in by a US exporter.
If a buyer in a business pays five times as much for something as it is really worth (e.g., in order to finance a kickback from the seller), the loss isn't delayed by putting it on the books at the fraudulent value. The loss occurred at the moment of purchase.
The problem the Asian mercantilists face as a result of their exchange rate manipulations is that when they bought dollars at those manipulated rates they took enormous losses to subsidize their exporters, and hid the losses by what was, in essence, accounting fraud. The reality is that their power elites and export-industry cronies have embezzled huge sums in this manner, and, as with any embezzlement, as time goes on this becomes increasingly difficult to hide. So of course they will try to spin it as though it is the fault of the US if and when the destructive side effects of the exchange rate manipulations make it impossible to continue them, and the losses are revealed.
I repeat: If you pay 7 yuan for a US dollar, you lose buying power at that very instant, not at some future time when the official exchange rate changes.
So of course they will try to spin it as though it is the fault of the US if and when the destructive side effects of the exchange rate manipulations make it impossible to continue them, and the losses are revealed
Look. I agree with all of your analysis, I was maybe being simplistic but it does not change my point. Basically, it's a tug of war where we have a huge lead.
In the final analysis, our economy in North America began with slave driving and it continues, except in the emerging markets. Our lifestyle is based on making the Chinese work for pennies.
Notwithstanding all the financial manupulations, they want their fair share just as much as we want to stay on top of the game. I feel we are more arrogant than them because on top of being entitled slave drivers, we can't believe they have the gull to actually fight to get their fair share!
"I would say based on the Bloomberg story that the India and Pakistan conflict is worse than what US MSM is reporting."
If they end up in a nuclear war, does that meen my three outsourced jobs will come back to me? That's a (combined) quarter-million a year in salary I'll never see again.
"Fighting dictatorial rule was more of a concern when the Bushites were playing around with the idea of Tyranny..."
Sounds like someone wrapped the tin-foil a little too tight. If you're really worried about tyranny, I'd consider the Kenyan thug who will be sworn in next month. His half brother is a African warlord personally responsible for the murder of 250,000 men, women, and children. So he has tyranny expertise in the family. Obama is on record saying the Constitution is "outdated." He called for a 3 million-strong civilian paramilitary, to do god-knows what.
And Obama will have much more opportunity to take advantage of chaos: consider 50 million unemployed, 500% inflation, a WMD attack on an American city courtesy of Obama's pals at Hamas.
Not that I believe most of this, but it is a much more credible horror story than trying to convince me of a "Bushite Tyranny" because NSA bugged the phone lines of a few dozen illegal aliens of Middle Eastern descent.
first..
i feel so good now
)
3rd?? echo??
Alas poor Yoringe. I knew him, Horatio.
.....I wonder if CR has these stories set to pre-post at a particular time or situation, or if he stays huddled away in his electronic cave and constantly spits out material day and night???
Is he really like a man behind the curtain that needs sun shipped in?
hope he sees the sun sometimes.. you need it for vitamin D
)
OT .. i posted some good links last tread.. pls read to good to be lost...
This should not be a surprise, really.
We will be seeing a tremendous contraction in everything that benefited from the war boom.
And that was what we had- Guns and Butter. Well, now that is over and now we have to pay the piper.
The really funny part is that speculation in so many areas fundamentally distorted prices, and now that markets are returning to approximately normal.
So, reality will once again cause an overshoot the other way. No wonder Keynes was so blase as he got older, not much really seemed new anymore.
I can hardly wait.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Woah! All these records are starting to sound like a broken record.
So much for the second half recovery all the bull tards were predicting.
Citizen AllenM
the big question is will the inevitable Revolution be with blood or without??
i have some ideas for a non blood one.. the bloodie solution is too easy..
OT; re Ultra Shorts.
See:
REIT Moves Rub Executives Wrong Way - WSJ.com
Leveraged ETFs blamed for volatility in REITs. Anyone holding SRS take note.
Holy Industrial Policy Batman...
That'll teach them to run there economy on a vendor finance model. Lucent anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
Nostrovia,
on the bright side.. the Japanese can live on rice only too if necessary..( and may rescue the Whale/Tuna population)...
....the constant ebb and flow is normal, but THIS time, everything "feels" different. I figured a long while back we'd run the wheels off this engine or the pendulum would swing a bit more to the edge upsetting the dominos, and I think this might be that time.
One difference I have noticed though: more and more people here have started using casino chips around town as currency. Haven't seen that since the sixties & seventies.
OT...But Burbank airport is deader than a door nail this morning.
I should have the entire emergency exit row to myself.
Excellent.
Nostrovia,
8.1% month over month is almost untrackable. Clearly this is not a contraction. When CR says correctly "cliff diving" what is being described is a literal dislocation. Things aren't changing rapidly, things are changing instantaneously and we don't have a social or economic system in place capable of responding to such discontinuities.
Black Star,
"more and more people here have started using casino chips around town as currency."
Bank accounts are less safe than Casino cashiers?
Nostrovia,
"Bank accounts are less safe than Casino cashiers?"
Some of the old-timers and prospectors seem to think so.......to them it's booze, food, poker, and a room while they're in town reloading....
ever been a better time to buy and sell casino chips.
Unemployment:
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 715,496 in the week ending Dec. 20, an increase of 85,629 from the previous week. There were 456,272 initial claims in the comparable week in 2007.
Not to worry, the SA numbr is a mere 586,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 556,000. The 4-week moving average was 558,000, an increase of 13,750 from the previous week's revised average of 544,250.
Hell of a seasonal adjustment there.
Rob,
"Things aren't changing rapidly, things are changing instantaneously"
A consequence of J.I.T. Final goods manufacture reduce W.I.P. and empty the pipeline, and it just tumbles down the chain in near real time.
Should clean out the excesses faster. But I suspect Japan will bail as well.
Oh well.
Nostrovia,
...and nowadays, casinos have to post legal notices when they'll stop cashing in their chips. Banks don't have to do THAT! And with banks, everybody and their brother knows about it...
one of my ideas for change run along that..
Traces Issue No 15
some kind of Informal banking system based on "Hawala".. wich the casino Chip storie indicates allready happens..
btw did it ever occur to you that the Banks in exchange for TARP money just hand over client data??
Like in " you get all the Money you want if you just let these NSA guys get access to your computers, because we have to keep track of the guys who pay the bill"
Comrade Misean,
Good to have you back these last few days.
Yes, JIT and communications are about to bite back. What scares me is the near seizure of supply partner credit. If that persists we'll have a full on worldwide depression and no way to restart trade.
Let's watch the Korean chip manufacturers.
In USA what agency measures Industrial Production? And is it a political position, or can they be trusted not to hide data.
Don't Trust Nobody.
you can trust me.. no really
)
Rob,
Thanks...but vacation's are over for a bit.
"What scares me is the near seizure of supply partner credit."
As I've said it's the modern era's version of trade tarriffs. I doubt it matters why International trade drops off, only it's impacts. The reason for it won't change the result.
Natch.
KNURD!
Nostrovia,
Nigh onto flight time. Nothing like going to Oakland the day after Christmas.
Catch ya'll on the flip side.
Nostrovia,
It's all contained.
Ahhh, the magical power of free markets at work.
AR Shadow - in the US, it is the Federal Reserve. You can get the releases <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/default.htm">here.</a>
November -5.5% YoY
segment on Bloomberg about Ponzie scemes... it sounds like they talk about the Fed
)
so best to all, i go work and add my share of Wealth producing to Society
)( real productive wealth btw.)
Sorry, US industrial production is here.
from MaxedOutMama:
"The capacity utilization rate for total industry fell to 75.4 percent, a level 5.6 percentage points below its average level from 1972 to 2007."
doest that mean still 25% overcapacity???
Tbills @ .05% !
that's an incredible rate of change from0.0
Obligatory Baltic Dry Index reference. JIT, trade finance, collapsing final demand, mid range retail tankeroonie.
Bloodbath.
C
KNURD!?
Way too early for that.
Since we are doing such a good job of scaring the cr@p out of each other I'd like to mention another 800lb gorilla. China has been reneging on several fronts. They are young to international commerce and also arrogant as to their standing. You just plain old cannot refuse a letter of credit without severe consequences. I predict a raw materials crisis when Australian companies refuse to commit to any shipments on any terms. And there goes the BDI to newer lows.
Yet the Nikkei 225 closes up 140.02, and the insanity continues.
Rob Dawg: "Yes, JIT and communications are about to bite back. What scares me is the near seizure of supply partner credit. If that persists we'll have a full on worldwide depression and no way to restart trade.
Let's watch the Korean chip manufacturers."
What's left of the banks may revert to the tried and true (albeit labor intensive and boring) business of financing trade.
After all they've got collateral w/ the goods.
If you're right about that side tightening or shutting down, then I'm already in my vege garden, showing the kids how to prune.
Why Korean chips, per se?
Cheers Dawg - check extractives on ASX over the next couple of weeks when the very last vestigial decouplers get their minsky moment.
Oh, and commercial paper rollover credit will be fffuuuuuuggly through Jan/Feb.
C
Followed my the next misadventure?
Someday this war's gonna end...
Citizen AllenM | 12.26.08 - 10:16 am | #
[So much for the second half recovery all the bull tards were predicting]
2nd half ? of the 21st century ?
of the milenium
Who is the next retailer to BK? Is there a betting pool? Besides the stock market, I mean.
A hobby store chain? A mall based video and or game store? A national men's clothing store? How are Sharper Image and Brookstone doing? Pottery Bard, Williams-Sonoma... too easy. What about aggressively expanded fast foodies? I love Baja Fresh but do enough others to support so many expensive locations?
Why Korean chips, per se?
Anak
Coupla reasons. They report honestly, their flash and ram stuff is very sensitive to the economy and the market for the types of products is mature thus avoiding volatility and technology problems with the numbers.
The markets will tank when oil falls below 30. 1st week of January.
Leveraged ETFs blamed for volatility in REITs. Anyone holding SRS take note.
Comrade V
Too bad. Free market capitalism(LOL)works both ways. Multi-millionaires/billionaires CRE owners over leveraged and guessed wrong. Blaming it on an ETF is foolish. Their business model falls off a cliff with each 1% increase in vacancy and each 1% decrease in rents. Buzzards are circling.
...and the final straw = has Carl's Jrs. changed their meat in the $6-dollar burger?? Seems like sawdust now, not beef. WTF!
Macys. Nordstrom. Kohls. Farewell.
C
i cant wait to have a former Investment banker as Dish washer ( before i bite the dust with my restaurant..).. something to hold on to..
What about aggressively expanded fast foodies?
Jamba Juice. Usually full of teens hanging out or younger kids just out of soccer practice, etc. Pretty empty lately. The one at the mall is busy, but that's more of a convenient-and-quick-mall-food issue.
Rob Dawg writes:
Who is the next retailer to BK?
Perfumania
Body Shop...overpriced hand, face and exfoliant creams
Macy's == TBTF.
I don't know how Kohl's does it but they do do it. If they are in trouble their books are seriously deep in the Madoff. They look profitable and are trading at a moderate P/E.
Hey Counterpointer if you're around--
What were you looking for me for last night around midnight?
bubblevision -- "The average recession lasts 13-15 months so that means the bull market is upon us. Markets anticipate the rebound"
These guys still manage other peoples' money ? It's remarkable to me that they still have any left to shuffle around. And this is the hard-driving analysis that's supposed to scare what little money is left out of treasuries into taking risk ?
What were you looking for me for last night around midnight?
The_Littlest_Mandarin
Get a room
I hope he wasn't looking for that!
Don't worry boys and girls. China will save us all. (according to IMF and Brad Setser) LOL
Rob Dawg:
If you really want to get scared, here is what some of the red dog survivalists down here are quoting today:
Newsmax.com - U.S. Military Preparing for Domestic Disturbances
Not my POV, but some take this stuff seriously.
Tai Xiao Mandarin - thought you'd asked a question that I hadn't replied to.
Or somesuch.
C
oy vey
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced on November 17 that the 2009 renewable fuel standard (RFS) will require most refiners, importers, and non-oxygenate blenders of gasoline to displace 10.21% of their gasoline with renewable fuels such as ethanol. That requirement aims to ensure that at least 11.1 billion gallons of fuels will be sold in 2009. .
but,but feb rbob is @ 85c
I am getting ready to do some errands with the family and observe my other retail indicator. The trash factor.
Check out whats on the curb or piled up by the cans. Drive through a few different hoods. I remember a few years ago we celebrated the year of the TV. Old TVs on the curbs everywhere.
Comrade V, take that back to Ure
$20 on Sears.
ova - the Fairfax Trash Index? I'll add that to the doomsday bringup list.
Prolly more reliable than LIBOR.
C
Coupla reasons. They report honestly, their flash and ram stuff is very sensitive to the economy and the market for the types of products is mature thus avoiding volatility and technology problems with the numbers.
Rob Dawg | 12.26.08 - 11:09 am | #
Thanks, makes sense as a cyclical tell. But re trade financing are they as dependent on the standard L/C's as, say, soybean exporters? I'd be more worried about component, mineral or ag trade freezing up. Already there have been exporter difficulties w/ opening bank approvals. Confirmations of L/C's by third parties proceed, but only for a select group of opening banks where it's not needed as much anyway.
Traders don't know whether to be more concerned about their lines, their customers' lines, or the specific credit. Not to mention customers'customers, Best Buy?
As pointed out by others above, what trade doesn't happen doesn't happen regardless of ptb intentions. Don't need an act of congress to shut down int'l trade.
Bedtime for me, TIA.
Comrade V writes:
If you really want to get scared, here is what some of the red dog survivalists down here are quoting today:
Old news. These reports are always being produced. There's scenarios for invading Mexico, capturing the Alberta tar sands, intercepting terrorist trained dolphins, hypersonic lawn darts from space. There's little likelihood for domestic unrest sufficient to call out the regular army. Part of the reason there is little chance is precisely because we study and plan for all contingencies.
Comrade V | 12.26.08 - 11:19 am
I would say based on the Bloomberg story that the India and Pakistan conflict is worse than what US MSM is reporting. When India tells its citizens to leave, or not to travel there, bad things are happening.
It reads like the Pakistan gov. is in the early stages of a civil war, or at least a slo mo coup. They are losing control of the regional police.
I'll go with Sears for BK so Eddie can f*** everyone...what a merchant he isn't. Regional chain to go bye-bye..look to Goody's in TN.
Counterpointer writes:
thought you'd asked a question that I hadn't replied to.
Possible. I asked something about the Chinese-language literature of failing state mission capture and organizational decay.
Rob Dawg @ 11:26. Agreed. But others get excited, then it goes viral.
Mandarin - I know why it got confusing, you were using a different handle.
C
Rob Dawg writes:
There's little likelihood for domestic unrest sufficient to call out the regular army.
I would disagree but there's very little reason to worry about it anyway.
Any reason there's going to be that kind of serious civil distrubance will involve not paying the troops or buying supplies.
Fighting dictatorial rule was more of a concern when the Bushites were playing around with the idea of Tyranny. Now that their lack of performance has put overthrowing the Republic effectively off the menu the real concern is state fragmentation due to failure to fund central gvt. ops.
Any kind of rule imposed in the wake of that will be temporary -- not that you might not end up in jail forever or dead from it, but any sort of response with a militant character will just exacerbate the fiscal crisis.
hope he sees the sun sometimes.. you need it for vitamin D
)
Yoringe | 12.26.08 - 10:12 am | #
Got (vitamin D added) milk?
8.1% fall in production, biggest drop since 1953.
This is Japan, folks! The powerhouse. This is getting scary but at least the Japanese have a lot in savings that they can live on and the government has $1 trillion in cash. What do we have here in the U.S.? Treasuries for sale!
Counterpointer writes:
Mandarin - I know why it got confusing, you were using a different handle.
It's true. I can't be my regular self from where I'm at right now.
Rob Dawg writes:
There's little likelihood for domestic unrest sufficient to call out the regular army.
After the next terrorist attack. The new and improved one.
There's little likelihood for domestic unrest sufficient to call out the regular army
Oh ye of little faith. I've seen these patrols on the I-405 twice now. A convey of about ten Humvees and Strykers, gun cockpits manned and armed like they were in Iraq.
I don't remember seeing anything like this before, even during the late 1970s. We moved armor around but I don't remember being cocked-n-locked on civilian roadways. I noticed both conveys in November. I was in Seattle for about two years and never saw this before.
Ooooh, Mandarin. Conspiracy! Cool!
C
Thanks, makes sense as a cyclical tell [Korean chips]. But re trade financing are they as dependent on the standard L/C's as, say, soybean exporters? I'd be more worried about component, mineral or ag trade freezing up. Already there have been exporter difficulties w/ opening bank approvals. Confirmations of L/C's by third parties proceed, but only for a select group of opening banks where it's not needed as much anyway.
The Korean commodity chip makers have mature supply chains. If they are losing confidence in their longstanding counterparties then things are really bad. It doesn't matter for our purposes whether there is more of less L/C sensitivity. I imagine less.
The bulk raw materials/foodstuffs are slow to respond. I'm looking for a fast sensitive metric. Not that there's anything wrong with looking at Australian ore volumes but IMO that's rear looking data.
Anonymous writes:
After the next terrorist attack. The new and improved one.
I welcome all such attempts by the authorities to prove to JIT society that the velocity of money can indeed drop to 0.
That would really impress the short term Treasuries market, don't you think?
Comrade V, from the article you posted:
And Gen. Tommy Franks, who led the U.S. military operations to liberate Iraq, said in a 2003 interview that if the U.S. is attacked with a weapon of mass destruction, the Constitution will likely be discarded in favor of a military form of government.
Now this should scare the pantyhose off a very tall horse.
Broward Horne writes:
There's little likelihood for domestic unrest sufficient to call out the regular army
Oh ye of little faith. I've seen these patrols on the I-405 twice now. A convey of about ten Humvees and Strykers, gun cockpits manned and armed like they were in Iraq.
Relax. They were just moving coke, crack and meth north from Mexico.
ha. Convoy, not convey. Stop talking this JIT stuff already. It has magical powers just like the US Army.
Has anyone made a list of entities/groups/industries seeking federal aid?
Ethanol, banks, CRE, CR, Madoff investors, autos, state and local govts., retailing, etc.?
Put it another way. Does anyone know of entities NOT seeking federal aid?
Washington Redskins, New York Yankees? Wait, I'm not so sure about the Yankees.
That'll teach them to run there economy on a vendor finance model. Lucent anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
Comrade Misean is Dope | 12.26.08 - 10:24 am | #
Amen. Most old fuddies like me have been wondering how and when they were going to get paid - oh wait - looking at the debt overhang & effect on dollar - looks like never. Hoocoodanode.
Maybe now they'll put more energy to develop a full blown 'Sushi Cutting, Geisha & Karaoke Economy' - sounds more advanced then our 'Burger Flipping and Indian Casino Economy'. Result is the same though - fiat velocity w/in Japan independent of US dollahs...
And Gen. Tommy Franks, who led the U.S. military operations to liberate Iraq, said in a 2003 interview that if the U.S. is attacked with a weapon of mass destruction, the Constitution will likely be discarded in favor of a military form of government.
Evidently Gen. Franks was wrong when he called Doug Feith "the dumbest motherf#cker on the planet"
Most old fuddies like me have been wondering how and when they were going to get paid
You are not alone -
Bears' Chat - Message Detail
.
"Got (vitamin D added) milk?"
Yep....milking my cow in the sun just about covers that, right?
Broward Horne writes:
Oh ye of little faith. I've seen these patrols on the I-405 twice now. A convey of about ten Humvees and Strykers, gun cockpits manned and armed like they were in Iraq.
Company / troop sized roadrunning operation?
I imagine they're practicing SOP at this point.
So does this mean Germany won the war after all? They are not going to participate in "senseless race for billions"...
ova writes:
"I would say based on the Bloomberg story that the India and Pakistan conflict is worse than what US MSM is reporting."
Hard to interpret; Paks know that taking presure off insurgents to Northwest makes U.S. uneasy, and forces us to intercede, so its partly symbolic. Large scale troop movements have happened before in recent history with no consequences. Not like the old days when Indians decrypted Pakistan general staff war council and launched decapitation air strike against their HQ. Nuclear weapons do deter such pre-emptive reflex actions.
Comrade Volker the Viking writes:
And Gen. Tommy Franks, who led the U.S. military operations to liberate Iraq, said in a 2003 interview that if the U.S. is attacked with a weapon of mass destruction, the Constitution will likely be discarded in favor of a military form of government.
With The Decider in charge!
Didn't that just work out! We can get the expertise at conquest and rule that made our overthrow of the Tyrant of Bagdad such a rousing success! And with no economy or budget since it'll be within our own borders!
Can I just begin running in circles and screaming now to beat the rush?
Tin Free writes:
Comrade V, take that back to Ure
Tin Free | 12.26.08 - 11:22 am | #
................
I read Ure as an alt/kook news aggregator when I'm too lazy to go through my own sources, but his track record with the webbot stuff is pretty poor.
Japan and Germany will be regretting not addressing their structural issues real soon now.
"Industrial production in Japan is falling off the cliff,"
I think the proper phrase is "cliff diving"
I think the correct term is "el cliffo."
8.1% month over month is almost untrackable. Clearly this is not a contraction. When CR says correctly "cliff diving" what is being described is a literal dislocation. Things aren't changing rapidly, things are changing instantaneously and we don't have a social or economic system in place capable of responding to such discontinuities.
Rob Dawg | 12.26.08 - 10:26 am | #
To feed on that theme some more & Misean's 'vendor financing' - a little anecdotal with your morning coffee:
Just before Xmas I talked on the phone w/ the head of customer service at a supplier I support - we were discussing the Japanese transplant I call on for them - lotsa issues lately with our quality [our fault => seems round eyes get dumber in the front end of recessions & think they can ship any old shit to boost monthly billing - not to Japanese you can't]... anyway we discussed all the open items. In closing she said - "I'll get to it as soon as I can. We have bigger fish to fry."
I reply "Say what?" She follows up by adding that their largest customer [a big US MNC competing against my Japanese transplant] hadn't paid their bills in two weeks. I replied... "Wow - that sucks - you all do a ton with them. Well at least it is only two weeks. At least they aren't into you for 120 plus days like the automotive guys." There was silence - then she said quietly... "They are into us for WAY MORE than 120 days."
And this is NOT automotive. Vehicle related machinery but NOT highway automotive. BTW the Japanese all pay us w/in 10 days - why we hose them and treat the deadbeat domestics like Gods is beyond me [maybe it's because we CAN send the domestics crap product and they eat it all up - just don't pay their bills on time, maybe not at all - we'll see]...
I think there is a lot of this going on out there we mere mortals know nothing about. Until the cliff diving happens that is.
re: trash factor
funny you should mention it. i was tossing the remnants of toy packaging into the recycle bin last night- amused and more than a little pleased that i didnt have to mash it down.
Will the markets react to an Israeli invasion of Gaza? When that results in a shower of Iranian built missiles, and Israeli airstikes on Iran, which subsequently closes the Hormuz Strait, things will get more interesting. Happy New Year.
Joanna writes:
"I read Ure as an alt/kook news aggregator when I'm too lazy to go through my own sources, but his track record with the webbot stuff is pretty poor."
I think Tim was referring to Proshares RE
URE Profile - ProShares Ultra Real Estate Profile - URE Company Information - ProShares Ultra Real Estate Company Information
Company / troop sized roadrunning operation?
I imagine they're practicing SOP at this point
I wrote all that I know. It seems unusual to me. I've been all over the U.S. in the past five years and I don't remember seeing a convoy on the road ready for combat.
BH, come on down south, ya here
I don't remember seeing a convoy on the road ready for combat.
Broward Horne
I agree. Last thing any ambitious officer wants is an incident on US soil. Very unusual. When I was overseas no one was even issued live rounds until someone with lots of stars was responding to an incident.
Broward Horne writes:
I wrote all that I know. It seems unusual to me. I've been all over the U.S. in the past five years and I don't remember seeing a convoy on the road ready for combat.
Understood. Noted. You see all kinds of military activities in a civilian context these days. I see hushed choppers in my locale all the time -- 500 series and AH-64. Most people don't notice it 'cause they don't "chop" but they are often running up and down the valleys hereabout in the afternoon and no doubt they snoop around at night as well.
I just don't think they're going to go anywhere with it now that the Bushites aren't in a position to establish a Tyranny with it.
see hushed choppers in my locale all the time -- 500 series and AH-64. Most people don't notice it 'cause they don't "chop" but they are often running up and down the valleys hereabout in the afternoon
DEA?
A few years back I saw 2 F-18's glues to a Lear or Gulfstream flying at about 2K yards up. This was Fairfax, right outside of DC. I asked around and no one had a clue nor was it reported.
I think there is a lot of this going on out there we mere mortals know nothing about
Here's an interesting comment & table from a couple of days ago -
If You Think the Past Decade Was Bad For Stocks, Wait Till You See This | Market Watch | Elliott Wave International
Crash was in motion before the financial derivatives blew up.
A few years back I saw 2 F-18's glues to a Lear or Gulfstream flying at about 2K yards up
that's bin talal. he gets that kind of service when he visits
Broward Horne
All the good stuff was behind the money wall.
Another Asia Factoid:
Client does large business importing and distributing "hearth" products, basically those metal furnance boxes you retrofit fireplaces with, and OEMs them all over U.S., for sale in Costco, etc. Manufacturing done in China. His business still doing surprisngly well, but ...
He explained that majority of Chinese factories (in his experience) were very thinly capitalized and heavily reliant on government financing. When orders slacked off, financing disappeared, and poof went large double digit perecentage of factories. He is now dominant customer for his laregest supplier. Essentially, as he tells it, he now "owns" the factory without ever having to invest. Sorry no data, just interesting perspective.
FWIW - we see plenty of convoy's here in the Upper Midwest... most are southern state Nat'l Guard units heading to Camp Ripley in central Minnesota to do some quick and dirty winter theater training before going to Afghanistan. Those guys always look like some unhappy dudes.
BH, come on down south, ya here
I was stationed at Knoxville and Redstone Arsenal. Like I said, I don't ever remember driving down the road and then looking up into the barrel of a M-60 and a pair of night vision goggles.
I think I would have remembered that.
Anyway, I'm not headed south, I'm headed west! West Seattle and a week+ of wild sex!
.
ova writes:
DEA?
Not with AH-64 unless they are really up-gunning lately.
I've just seen them in transit, not practicing pop-ups or anything. I presume they are practicing over-urban ops but I don't really check. They are definitely minimizing profile though -- no flying above the local ridgelines, no hovering, flying with the stutter cut if that is an on-off thing.
@Broward,
Thanks for posting the line. I'm a fan of the elliottwave group. Their insights on things are awesome. I hadn't seen that link, thanks.
He explained that majority of Chinese factories (in his experience) were very thinly capitalized and heavily reliant on government financing. When orders slacked off, financing disappeared, and poof went large double digit perecentage of factories. He is now dominant customer for his laregest supplier. Essentially, as he tells it, he now "owns" the factory without ever having to invest. Sorry no data, just interesting perspective.
Comrade V | 12.26.08 - 12:10 pm | #
I've heard the same story over and over - different sectors. The industrial base in China is an inch deep and a mile wide with a weather forecast of 'hot and dry' for as far as the weatherman can see... Japan's though is (or was until recently) MUCH deeper - that is what makes CR's Cliff Diving story so concerning.
..."Wow - that sucks - you all do a ton with them. Well at least it is only two weeks. At least they aren't into you for 120 plus days like the automotive guys." There was silence - then she said quietly... "They are into us for WAY MORE than 120 days."...
-dryfly | 12.26.08 - 11:54 am
Hmmm. That's interesting. That sounds a lot like the telecom scene in 2001-2002, except the slowdown is affecting a broad cross-section of the economy just about everywhere...
The last time Pakistan lost a war to India there were no WMDs at issue. If Pakistan begins to experience an existential threat there could be big trouble. It's enough to make a person feel uneasy.
A stone cast into a pond causes ripples to expand outward.
My pick for a retail casualty in 2009 is WSM. I am actually surprised it's still keeping its lights on.
But hey, as overcapacitized as homebuilding is and as weak as many of the builders are, I am amazed we haven't seen a BK yet in that space. How do HOV & BZH still have a pulse ?
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 11:35 am
have seen the same thing on the 215 near Riverside. i see lots of armor on the freeways as i live near pendleton- this was seriously out of place tho. i stopped and stared as twenty or so APCs, humvees and such went by, guns at the ready.
@nova, quarterly flow-of-funds data
Pavel,
Check out this paper on Nuclear Winter models (1.5MB):
http://www.envsci.rutgers.edu/~gera/nwinter/nw6accepted.pdf
They use current climate modeling techniques assuming a limited nuclear exchange. Spooky stuff. They mention in the paper that the smoke and soot from burning cities in WWII caused a significant cooling effect for several years after the end of the war.
come to think of it- last week i saw something else: two groups of three very large planes, flying very low, with minimal lights headed north over Temecula. i dont know planes, so i cant even guess what they were, but they were too quiet for their size and altitude. almost silent.
im sure its nothing.
How do HOV & BZH still have a pulse ?
bearly
Buku cash on hand and small constant payroll. Stopped building, sitting on inventory is their only cost.
I spent most of the morning playing snakes and toilets,then decided to cheer up by signing on to CR,erm.Happy New Year!
The central bank tries to devalue the ruble as fast as it only can without attracting too much unwelcome attention of the speculators, many of whom are on vacation now, said Evgeny Nadorshin, a senior economist at Trust Investment Bank in Moscow. The less speculations, the more reserves the central bank keeps for itself in the short term.
LOL. Love this shit. Unfortunately, vacation doesn't last forever, Russia....
I'm waiting for India and Pakistan to fire it up by the way. The solution to overcapacity is at hand! I work with a financial analyst here in Dubai, sharp guy too, from Mumbai, who spend 45 minutes at lunch the other day (non-stop) telling us how all of the problems in the world basically result from the failed state of Pakistan. He said his plan for Pakistan is to have mushroom clouds rising from as many cities as possible.
I'm waiting for India and Pakistan to fire it up by the way.
I think Bush should appoint Jas Jain as a special envoy to Pakistan to sooth those tensions.
Dryfly - regarding your anecdote, I heard from a Motorola employee that not only did they dump the pension, freeze wages and elminate bonuses and 401k matches, but they recalculated the pension contribution and went into employees' accounts and removed some of the balances.
Cash shortage, all the way. It's very hard to believe companies financials, these days.
China has been reneging on several fronts. They are young to international commerce and also arrogant as to their standing. You just plain old cannot refuse a letter of credit without severe consequences.
Young? I thought Europeans found America while they were looking for their spices!
They've been working for peanuts while Americans have been living high off the hog. They now have 1 trillion in US $ reserve which the Americans are trying to devalue and you call them arrogant?!
They now have 1 trillion in US $ reserve which the Americans are trying to devalue ...
Au contraire -- the value manipulation has been on the Chinese side. The entire basis of the Brobingnagian Chinese vendor financing fraud has been the Chinese government's willingness to buy US dollars from its exporters at ludicrous rates between 6.8 (current peg) and 8.2 yuan (the peg for many years).
Because the buying power of a US dollar is only a small fraction of the buying power of that many yuan, the Chinese people took probably an 80% loss on those transactions the moment they took place. It is only the "realization" of those losses that remains to occur.
The equivalent would be for the US government to promote exports to Europe by pledging to buy pay out $10 for every Euro brought in by a US exporter.
If a buyer in a business pays five times as much for something as it is really worth (e.g., in order to finance a kickback from the seller), the loss isn't delayed by putting it on the books at the fraudulent value. The loss occurred at the moment of purchase.
The problem the Asian mercantilists face as a result of their exchange rate manipulations is that when they bought dollars at those manipulated rates they took enormous losses to subsidize their exporters, and hid the losses by what was, in essence, accounting fraud. The reality is that their power elites and export-industry cronies have embezzled huge sums in this manner, and, as with any embezzlement, as time goes on this becomes increasingly difficult to hide. So of course they will try to spin it as though it is the fault of the US if and when the destructive side effects of the exchange rate manipulations make it impossible to continue them, and the losses are revealed.
I repeat: If you pay 7 yuan for a US dollar, you lose buying power at that very instant, not at some future time when the official exchange rate changes.
So of course they will try to spin it as though it is the fault of the US if and when the destructive side effects of the exchange rate manipulations make it impossible to continue them, and the losses are revealed
Look. I agree with all of your analysis, I was maybe being simplistic but it does not change my point. Basically, it's a tug of war where we have a huge lead.
In the final analysis, our economy in North America began with slave driving and it continues, except in the emerging markets. Our lifestyle is based on making the Chinese work for pennies.
Notwithstanding all the financial manupulations, they want their fair share just as much as we want to stay on top of the game. I feel we are more arrogant than them because on top of being entitled slave drivers, we can't believe they have the gull to actually fight to get their fair share!
"I would say based on the Bloomberg story that the India and Pakistan conflict is worse than what US MSM is reporting."
If they end up in a nuclear war, does that meen my three outsourced jobs will come back to me? That's a (combined) quarter-million a year in salary I'll never see again.
"Fighting dictatorial rule was more of a concern when the Bushites were playing around with the idea of Tyranny..."
Sounds like someone wrapped the tin-foil a little too tight. If you're really worried about tyranny, I'd consider the Kenyan thug who will be sworn in next month. His half brother is a African warlord personally responsible for the murder of 250,000 men, women, and children. So he has tyranny expertise in the family. Obama is on record saying the Constitution is "outdated." He called for a 3 million-strong civilian paramilitary, to do god-knows what.
And Obama will have much more opportunity to take advantage of chaos: consider 50 million unemployed, 500% inflation, a WMD attack on an American city courtesy of Obama's pals at Hamas.
Not that I believe most of this, but it is a much more credible horror story than trying to convince me of a "Bushite Tyranny" because NSA bugged the phone lines of a few dozen illegal aliens of Middle Eastern descent.