Ticks are not trends. Could be nothing more than a large single purchase. Could be a pump and dump play. There's just no telling. Ticks are extremely noisy. Let's see if it gets sold into. I guess yes.
The glod spike stopped me out of my DZZ (slight profit). GLD will more than likely test that high volume high of 86.91. And today's move is on much lighter volume: 3.5 mil. vs. 22 mil.
Also sold my USO this morning for a loss. USO dropped 3% after a nice rally in 20 minutes. I'm targeting the first Fib. extension at 25.50.
Also sold my USO this morning for a loss. USO dropped 3% after a nice rally in 20 minutes. I'm targeting the first Fib. extension at 25.50. Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 1:53 pm | #
FEB CL up over a buck and USO down nearly a buck. "Splain it, please.
4shzl writes:
FEB CL up over a buck and USO down nearly a buck. "Splain it, please.
I explained it Wednesday. NYSE closed at 1:00pm, so USO closed at 29.02. Not 5 minutes later, crude futures tank another 6% for the session. USO after hours declines to the low $27s. So USO actually "gapped up" in sympathy with crude today - despite its market hour sessions showing a gap down and new low for today. Yeah, it's confusing, but the important point is USO made a nice intraday rally to 28.96 and puked.
USO is a derivative with Unknown Exact inputs. trade the real thing. it's cheaper.
And don't be lazy about no commodity account. It takes 5 minutes no big funding requirements.
PonziMonetizaCoruptiCapitalism writes:
Pimco High Income Fund Removes Limits on Managers Using Swaps, Derivatives
Because they've been leaving too much money on the table by not being able to trade swaps and derivatives without limit?
Why do they insist on testing to destruction? Don't answer, OPM and churn.
A 4.5 magnitude earthquake struck northern California on Friday, the US Geological Survey said, revising an earlier report of a stronger quake.
The tremor occurred at 4:19 am (1219 GMT) with the epicenter three kilometers (two miles) northeast of the small town of East Quincy, and 163 kilometers (102 miles) northeast of the state capital Sacramento, according to the USGS.
An earlier report from the USGS said the quake was 5.0 in magnitude.
There were no immediate reports of casualties or major damage.
Anonymous(Unrated) writes: \tWonder why gold is moving up? \t AnonymousThe backwardation story continues to have potential. If gold backwardates, it's a pretty big thing. Also, gold is very near breaking out of a technical trend channel that has been in place for most of 2008. If it breaks through the top of the channel, it could go a lot higher.
So much for Christmas, peace on earth and all that "crap". Israelis against Palestinians and Lebanese, Pakistanis against Indians and what else...
Even if those idiots had a whole pristine planet for each of them, they would all spend the first 100 years building space nuke rockets to get "even" with the other planet. Loving God sure is a serious killing business.
This friggin human monkey zoo circus is seriously starting to PISS ME OFF!
First of all, Timmy, the majority in each of those countries, with the possible exception of Lebanon, is not Christian, and could care less about the season. Second, speaking for Israelis, the vast majority could care less about "Loving God". Jews are looking to be left alone by the majority religions, and have found it impossible over the last 2000 years without a homeland.
Commodities are turning around on dollar weakness. Don't miss the opportunity.
I don't know rich, i mean dollar index still holding above 80.
The commodities may turn on fundamentals though.
Then there's still those pesky de-leveraging and redemptions around the corner.
Commodities are turning around on dollar weakness. Don't miss the opportunity. rich | 12.26.08 - 3:19 pm | #
I've been building a position in USO for the last week, average price 33.46/share. I don't claim to know where the bottom is, but if you look at price per barrel in real dollars, oil hasn't been this cheap since the 70's. I believe inflation is inevitable at some point. I'm prepared to wait for a couple of years, if need be.
I'm also holding GLD for much the same reason, but I think gold is pretty expensive right now compared to oil.
Spoke to a wheat trader a while ago who said food is still getting cheaper to produce per acre every year. I'm bullish on inflation for minerals and energy, though.
Jews are natives there too, never left. In fact, until very recent Russian influx, there were more Jews in Israel from Muslim countries than Christian.
Jews are natives there too, never left. In fact, until very recent Russian influx, there were more Jews in Israel from Muslim countries than Christian. 1 currency soon [yogi] | 12.26.08 - 3:31 pm | #
WTF does any of this have to do with anything we'd want to talk about on CR? Please, don't feed the troll. TYVM.
1 currency soon [yogi] writes: Jews are natives there too, never left.
Yeah, it's mostly the pesky neighbors whose olive trees were bulldozed for security and then covered over by settler homesteads.
They were natives until they became inconvenient for the Zionist narrative of manifest destiny, now they suffer in the world's largest concentration camps, paid for by Uncle Sugar with dollars he don't have.
Yeah, it's mostly the pesky neighbors whose olive trees were bulldozed for security and then covered over by settler homesteads. The_Littlest_Mandarin | 12.26.08 - 3:36 pm | #
Every thread on CR does not need to be a referendum on Zionism or a battle between the conservatives and liberals.
WTF does any of this have to do with anything we'd want to talk about on CR?
Let me hazard this guess: Wall street is sympathetic to Israeli causes, more so than say Christian fundamentalist causes. Wall Street owns/controls the federal government. Wall Street is also sympathetic towards wars that goose spending. If Wall Street wants a war in the Middle East, it's no more difficult to arrange than another 7 trillion dollar bail out.
PapaSloth writes: WTF does any of this have to do with anything we'd want to talk about on CR?
Why does America trouble itself with Israel? Guilt from WW2 is a fading memory.
Israel is a US proxy and clieent serving as a beachehad for possibly regional entry during military actions to secure US gulf petroleum supplies. It's essentially a macroeconomic construct of America, without constant political cover and infusions of cash and guns, they'd have fallen apart long ago from some macroeconomic malaise.
In short -- Israeli Zionist movement's "manifest destiny" project for remains of Palestine -> Regional instability -> threat to oil flow and petronation dollar recycling pump.
Not to mention terrible global publicity and significant cash and weapons outlays -- many of which are traded abroad by our Israeli friends. Check out the saga of the Harpy antiradiation drone's sale to China.
It's not about racism or religious bigotry on my part, it's just about a nation that wants to take land from weaker neighbors to appease a vocal minority, and how they are too troublesome and embarassing to maintain as an imperial client.
"We're paying about a billion dollars per day less than we were in July" for gasoline, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service. "We could probably bail out some banks and maybe even some of the auto companies with the savings."
Anonymous writes: WTF is this then?
"We're paying about a billion dollars per day less than we were in July" for gasoline, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service. "We could probably bail out some banks and maybe even some of the auto companies with the savings."
Rejoice! Someone has come up with a new way to spend income your unborn grandchildren haven't yet earned!
>without constant political cover and infusions of cash and guns, they'd have fallen apart long ago from some macroeconomic malaise.< Absolute bullshit.
The US certainly got started with foreign infusion of cash and guns. I suppose the Native Americans would have more publicity if their heroes blew up as many American children as they could, but they suffer in "concentration camps" peacefully. Where do you live?
Jews are natives there too, never left. In fact, until very recent Russian influx, there were more Jews in Israel from Muslim countries than Christian 1 currency soon [yogi] | 12.26.08 - 3:31 pm | #
No troll feeding or PapaSloth will send us to your room without desert.
eeeww! how am i to properly waste time sitting at work on what should by rights be a holiday when somebody pukes on a perfectly good thread? stop it or ill have to do something productive!
I suppose the Native Americans would have more publicity if their heroes blew up as many American children as they could, but they suffer in "concentration camps" peacefully.
Too well-murdered to take their land back. Maybe you missed the part where Uncle Sugar stole the land from them again and again in every way possible, and then bloodily suppressed their futile attempts to seize justice.
Where do you live?
America -- that land of thieves and breigands that has bankrupted itself and even now seeks to bankrupt the rest of the world with its greed.
Parents immigrated in the 20th.
Are you arguing gtenocide can't be condemned by people who live in a nation that practiced it?
Kinda interesting argument, when does Israel have to take down the holocaust memorials, before or after the settlers have elbowed the last Palestinian into Jordan?
You should watch it when you try to make the whole "Americans can't condemn me when I murder thewse natives, you murdered natives too".
I mean, the difference between the Occupation and Ostland is just the size of the terrain where the previous claims on the land have been negated by force majeur.
Stick a fork in it. It's done like yesterday's turkey.
OT comment/question however.
Spent last evening with family/friends and discussion with someone veered to China.
When you read the chinese missives in their journals/periodicals, think "there has to be a new reserve currency arrangement instead of the dollar" kind of thing, is that a given that they've going to move that way or is a trial balloon to gauge response?
Thinking of Scrooge with the ghost of Xmas future: "is this what is written or only one alternative" (or whatever the verbiage is...)?
When you read the chinese missives in their journals/periodicals, think "there has to be a new reserve currency arrangement instead of the dollar" kind of thing, is that a given that they've going to move that way or is a trial balloon to gauge response?
They're just trying to gauge a response... ya think..
My money is on currency trade 'blocks' within regions.
When you read the chinese missives in their journals/periodicals, think "there has to be a new reserve currency arrangement instead of the dollar" kind of thing, is that a given that they've going to move that way or is a trial balloon to gauge response? homedad43 | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 4:04 pm | #
They are all asking the wrong question - they need to ask who are they going to trade with if not the US. That is the currency they need to fill their 'basket' with. Or go it without a huge surplus.
The reason they haven't done that yet is they don't know who will replace the US as customer of last resort. So dollar hegemony goes on by default.
Again - wrong question. The question isn't that they can use other currencies - they can, always could, that is what arbitrage is all about - the question is what are they doing about the dollar peg? If they plant to maintain it how else other than the expensive & risky acquisition of potentially dodgy USD denominated assets? Or go cold turkey and don't run huge trade surpluses to the US.
They think their Asian neighbors are going to let them run huge surpluses for long?
Something has to give & China hasn't faced up to that one any better than our leaders have to our deficits. Which is exactly why both continue. It isn't an accident.
Chinese exports into USA are about 22 percent of their total exports and mere 7-9 percent of GDP. The yearly GDP growth alone have been much bigger than all US exports.
Till they find out the US is really broke and have no way of paying ever. Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 4:13 pm | #
That is the same day they find out they have no 'export sector'. That is going to be one very interesting day - if you are watching from far enough away.
China & the US. Heck, the political and financial systems are already indistinguishable. Call a merger of equals and their surplus and our deficit cancel. Win win.
dryfly - BINGO. The lag effect to create a confident domestic end-point consumer will take time possibly even generational, to change the psychology of saving, because governments can't be trusted and you may need your nutpile, to a psychology of consumption, hedonism, and credit- driven excess, because governments can't be trusted and you'd might as well enjoy yourself...
There are signs of this in the Ch nouveau riche but the middle class is still a nervous and cautious market, and also coming to terms with having bought RRE pitched by wide-boys and bubbleheads.
There are more trial balloons coming out of the middle kingdom than a 5 year old's birthday party. Test, test, retest, circumscribe trial, evaluate, re-apply, move forward, retrench, recast, recalibrate, apply, adjust, progress. It's tried and true and has been thus since 78 and I see no reason for it to change.
Chinese exports into USA are about 22 percent of their total exports and mere 7-9 percent of GDP. The yearly GDP growth alone have been much bigger than all US exports. one_timmy | 12.26.08 - 4:18 pm | #
Try pulling 7-10% of GDP out of a country that needs 8-10% GDP growth every year to avert 'revolution'. Then consider about as much export activity going to the EU which is also retrenching. And that doesn't even consider 'spearhead effect' GDP for things like roads, ports, rails which are NOT included in export GDP figures yet were decisions driven almost exclusively by export sector growth.
It is not going to be easy to walk that elephant backwards.
"Try pulling 7-10% of GDP out of a country that needs 8-10% GDP growth every year to avert 'revolution'. "
Everybody is going to be in the world of hurt but at least they got the factories now.
USA now has whopping 105 million service sector workers out of 145 million (12 million out of work already, total about 157).
Guess what will happen when there are going to be soon an army of 40-50 million unemployed American service sector workers and no hope whatsoever to get a job, any job for years to come....
it seems to be a forgone conclusion that there is some magical gdp growth number that will ignite a chinese revolution if it were to drop low enough. this makes sense to me, but i think it needs to be challenged. is there a magic number that would do the same thing in norway or canada? what is that number?
one_timmy writes: Everybody is going to be in the world of hurt but at least they got the factories now.
They bought up every steel mill, production facility and whatever else they could, dismantled them piece by piece and reassembled them on the mainland. Let's see if they can keep up. Early reports place the outcome in doubt. Technology and all that.
USA now has whopping 105 million service sector workers out of 145 million (12 million out of work already, total about 157).
And there's the disconnect.
Guess what will happen when there are going to be soon an army of 40-50 million unemployed American service sector workers and no hope whatsoever to get a job, any job for years to come....
The thunder runs by uniformed military will increase.
What does that say about the other quarter?
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 4:50 pm | #
it says that they are not glad that bush is done.
WRONG, it implies that 25% have other opinions which may different than the majority, e.g, another 10% may want Bush in prison... while 1% may want Bush to remain as King.
sneering nihilist(Unrated) writes: it seems to be a forgone conclusion that there is some magical gdp growth number that will ignite a chinese revolution if it were to drop low enough. this makes sense to me, but i think it needs to be challenged.
Okay, well, "revolution" is a hard word. A period of extreme focus on internal matters in which economic development takes a back seat to sorting out issue of who is currently a distributional coalition / vested interest and who was formerly one. I guess the technical term would be something like "interdynastic lacuna of rule".
is there a magic number that would do the same thing in norway or canada? what is that number?
0 or effectively 0, same as everywhere.
Lapse of provision of political goods will quickly destroy the concept of state, no matter how peaceful the people. Look at Iceland. 6 weeks from dope smoking hippies to breaking into the jail to free arrested protesters.
IMO, the reason that the numbers required are so high is China is that the services won't trickle down to the effected parties due to the nature of the Chinese state.
This will give them an effective level of provided political goods of 0, so they need to get welfare-in-place by stabilizing the economy.
sneering nihilist(Unrated) writes: I think that many assumptions built into the 'less than x gdp growth = chinese revolution' would seem silly if applied elsewhere or examined closely.
Any state where the mechanism for delivering political good breaks down will fail in extremely short order, regardless of locale.
Sorry, I don't understand that expression.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.26.08 - 5:01 pm | #
I was thinking of the White Horse Armored unit in Viet Nam. Once or twice a week they did a thunder run down the main highways with certain areas designated free fire zones.
On topic, for a cartoon related post:
I just found <a href="http://secretfunspot.blogspot.com/2006/11/ren-stimpy-production-music.html>Ren & Stimpy Production Music free to download. Raymond Scott and the like; a treasure trove of nostalgic filler.
The US is not immune. google the bonus marches of WW-I and just how close we came to our own socialist revolution. Now fast forward to Barry's promise to bring back the troops. You know, bring them back to a 586k new unemployment claims economy. All those Guardsmen who's jobs disappeared while they were serving are not gonna be happy.
Guess what will happen when there are going to be soon an army of 40-50 million unemployed American service sector workers and no hope whatsoever to get a job, any job for years to come....
Before that happens, we will create massive walls of trade protectionism and start to manufacturer almost everything domestically that America needs. But of course, that can't easily happen, because we've already shut down so many factories, don't have enough low-cost factory workers, and lack access to many raw materials including iron, zinc, copper and wood pulp.
Where do we get the things needed to create a new manufacturing base in North America? Well, you know, the Amero. Mexico and Canada.
homedad43 writes:
...When you read the chinese missives in their journals/periodicals, think "there has to be a new reserve currency arrangement instead of the dollar" kind of thing, is that a given that they've going to move that way or is a trial balloon to gauge response?...
Just amazing! Does anyone really think that the currency of a nation which drove it's financial system (and financial state) to the brink of desaster is an appropriate "reserve currency" ?
Give me a brake.
caught that production music on a MeFi link yesterday. good stuff for sure. have you seen the recent resurrection of R&S? kinda dirtier, more growed up version. i like
Pavel Chichikov(Excellent) writes: Sorry, I don't understand that expression.
"Roadrunning" -- Armored activity designed to set off mines and produce ambush contacts.
The goal is to force enemies -- usually irregular forces -- seeking to interdict roadways into either fighting losing confrontations with armored dragoons, or to "give up" the highway.
It's a constant, "sorta-purposeless" activity that in many ways just provides a screen of constant motion on the part of cavalry / armor elements deployed in the cavalry role throughout the depth of an operational area where counter-insurgency operations are taking place.
It helps a lot to let you mount unannounced kidnappings and raids, for example. Once people will no longer openly contend with you for ownership of the roadnet, you can use it to concentrate overwhelming force at any location, and this is used to harry irregulars by rolling up on safe houses and operational strongpoints unannounced.
Likewise, constant heavy patrolling and instant roadblocks tend to flush out people using the road net for transit.
In short, it's the regular force's method of highway interdiction in asymmetric warfare.
China--Here (below) is a great blog on China. Sounds like (over simplifying) that there is a debate within China between those that want to continue to export their way out of this mess and those who think building up internal consumption is the way to go. But choice #2 will take time so in the meantime, the transition will be more painful than thought a few months ago.
We've done wonderful things to our dollar and I'm curious whether the Chinese think that they've got enough of a handle on their own issues to actually move away.
FWIW, the term is "give me a break."
If you're going to be sarcastic, at least spell it right.
sneering nihilist(Unrated) writes: do you mean services provided by the state?
Yes, mostly intangible -- and thus no-lifespan -- products like illusion of physical security and assurance of impartial disputes resolution. States that fail to provide these lose legitimacy almost overnight, no matter how well-settled their rule was previously.
"Before that happens, we will create massive walls of trade protectionism and start to manufacturer almost everything domestically that America needs."
Nail salon owners and real-estate agents will magically turn into engineers and technicians? I don't think so. Unemployment rate is already skyrocketing and there is no more time to re-educate the workforce. Checkmate.
This taxonomy of comparative state capacity depends on an analysis of governance
capabilities. Fundamental to the analysis is performance the effective delivery by a nation-state
of the most crucial political goods. A political good is that intangible and hard to quantify claim
that a citizen once made on a sovereign and now make on the state. Those claims , indeed
obligations, inform the local political culture, and give content to the social contract between the
government and the citizen.
Discussion paper -- does not represent the views of the US Government
5
Discussion paper -- does not represent the views of the US Government
There is a hierarchy of political goods. None is as critical as the supply of security,
especially human security. The states prime function is to provide the political good of security
to prevent cross-border invasions and infiltrations, to eliminate domestic threats to or attacks
upon the national order and social structure, to prevent crime and any related dangers to human
security, and to enable citizens to resolve their differences with the state and their fellow
inhabitants without recourse to arms or other forms of physical coercion.
Other political goods can be supplied only within a framework of security. Modern states
strive to provide predictable methods of adjudicating disputes and regulating both the norms and
the mores of a society. The essence of that political good implies codes and procedures that
together comprise an enforceable body of law and contract, an effective judicial system and
norms that encompass the rule of law.
Other political goods typically supplied by states and expected by their citizens include
medical and health care; schools and educational instruction; roads, railways, harbors and other
arteries of commerce; a money and banking system; a fiscal and institutional context within
which citizens can pursue entrepreneurial goals and prosper; space for the flowering of civil
society; and methods of regulating the sharing of the environmental commons.
Just drove around the neighborhood. Saw more than a few local businesses (Taco Bell, little 'ethnic' grocery stores, gas stations, etc) that mysteriously went out of business between Christmas Eve and today. Muy rapido.
haha I was trying to remember where that doc was when you posted the quote. Thankyou Byz - thats the kind of stuff i like to leave in the shitter at work. sowing the seeds, if you will
Byz - I'd call those public goods, since they're non-rival in the Olsen sense: like the provision of safety, security, rule of law, shoring up faith in contracts and their enforcement through transparent and reliable escalation and judgment, providing a stable investment climate without arbitrary policy changes and allowing regulation to work as intended.
Oh wait... what just happened? Where is that stuff?
China...revolution...dollar, etc. This is all so much projection.
The CFR set, Obama included, know very well that the USA and China act in concert. Our media create these illusions to deflect criticism toward the other side. China is no more responsible for our problems than we are theirs but we are in bed together. The sooner we embrace cooperation over competition, the sooner a global trade and finances recover and we can start inflating more bubbles.
Everybody is going to be in the world of hurt but at least they got the factories now. one_timmy | 12.26.08 - 4:41 pm | #
Electronics assembly plants, textile plants - means almost nothing - as worthless as the retail space we have. They needed to move deeper into advanced materials & such - didn't get there in time. Maybe that's why they seem so desperate to keep the game going a little longer - in the words of the quarterback who lost... "We didn't lose, we ran out of game."
They do have savings and even selling our assets at a loss will get them somewhere.
"The biggest reason I think it isn't the complete end of US prominence is that everyone else has as big or bigger problems. "
So you wanna keep the plutocracy, rule of the uberwealthy? Only one representative per 700 000+ people? It all started with one per 30000 over two hundred years ago..
Sometimes it is better to let go off the "glorious" past or the past will bury you. If you wanna that democratic republic back, the only way is to downsize and downsize again to smaller, more manageable states.
That will mean California won't be attacking Iran or Kansas won't be bringing "democracy" to Venezuela or Chile. Big bad army bye bye.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins
okay, so gdp growth contraction does not cause a revolution in china, it causes a reduction in political goods. this reduction in political goods undermines the legitimacy of the state. the state then becomes a weak, failed, or collapsed one.
this chain of causation, like you said, would seem to apply everywhere. dosen't the chinese state have some options here? maybe they could stimulate domestic growth with their sovereign wealth fund? i understand why people would lean towards the opinion that china would destabilize rapidly but i just don't see that happening. i can imagine a rapid reorganization of what type of political goods are provided, as well as method of delivery. for instance, more "security" and less health care. maybe i'm overestimating their intelligence and fondness of stability and order...
Where do we get the things needed to create a new manufacturing base in North America? Well, you know, the Amero. Mexico and Canada.
Yep, if we are talking string theory of reality, this string is the one i see myself in.
I will be able to buy Canadian made tea kettles again...but then, i will only need one, for the balance of life. I've been through three China made kettles, in the last 5 years.
I will enjoy my one Made In Canada tea kettle over the next 30 years, instead of burning thru 18 made in China...
dryfly(Excellent) writes: The biggest reason I think it isn't the complete end of US prominence is that everyone else has as big or bigger problems. Another example of winning by default.
Two oceans, mad guns and a historic thesis of rule are pretty solid foundations. I know I would not want to come contend for the ownership of this land.
The word for 2009 is going to be "maldistributed." The pain and the benefits are going to be historically uneven. Every time a governor or Federale says "we are all in this together" they will be taking their life in their hands. The productive class in California is already "on strike." The Jun-Nov state revenue numbers are dismal. Any attempt to squeeze more will be met with open defiance. The whole idea of bailouts is sticking in the American craw. A third of all homeowners are just waking up to the idea they are on the hook for other people's houses despite having no mortgage themselves. If there are going to be clawbacks it had damn well better not start with responsible people's equity or incomes.
Yeah, a real big human monkey zoo dust up. We'll see who is right in "loving God" and eventually, who is LEFT to pick up the pieces...probably will be just a group of Swedish lesbian blonds...
one_timmy | 12.26.08 - 5:54 pm | #
Thanks. You put it better than I did. I agree that the US (and the ROW) will be very different 5 years from now -- but some folks keep predicting a "Mad-Max" future. We're not going there.
Anon -- on decoupling: been hearing the "world will decouple" every time there is a business downturn for 30 years. Don't know why this downturn will cause it to happen when 73-74, 80-82, 84, 90-92, and 2001-2002 didn't.
Well, here's the thing -- the crisis is an institutional one.
Typically, you can't make good decisions and you can't stop spending money.
The money part either did or will go on to the point where you are having problems raising funds to fund ongoing operations.
Also, your administrative / executive function is generally so captive to vested interests it is either a vehicle / battleground for them or at least shares their framing of the current events narrative.
Somebody made the bad decisions that got you to where you are at -- infrequent and limited power rotation, narrow and tall wealth pyramid, state heavily identified with private interests in the economy or polity, erratic administration.
maybe they could stimulate domestic growth with their sovereign wealth fund?
They could do a lot of things. They will do a lot of things. Spending x dollars does not lead to y salutary effects.
i can imagine a rapid reorganization of what type of political goods are provided, as well as method of delivery. for instance, more "security" and less health care. maybe i'm overestimating their intelligence and fondness of stability and order...
It's an institutional crisis.
The US has done a lot of things since the beginning of the Bush administration, hasn't it? Spent a lot of money, imposed a lot more tyranny-cum-security.
How'd that work out?
Gotta get out of the crisis with the same institution whose inability to perform got you into the crisis.
So you wanna keep the plutocracy, rule of the uberwealthy? one_timmy | 12.26.08 - 6:16 pm | #
Doesn't matter what I want to keep - it's what's gonna happen that matters. I think there are going to be big changes but for the most part the past winners continue to win and th elosers continue to lose. The rest of us fall somewhere in between - skewed heavily by numbers to the 'L' side of the spectrum. I see nothing changing that in th enear term [my & my kids lifetimes].
but some folks keep predicting a "Mad-Max" future. We're not going there. Ed S. | 12.26.08 - 6:30 pm | #
Mad Max was always too easy a call - the future will be weirder than we can imagine right now - it always is. Not all better not all worse just weird & difficult. But for most folks 'now' is difficult even if they are accustomed to it [no longer weird]. The future will be the same only different [if you grew up in S Minnesota like me - you heard that before - makes perfect sense now].
I think there are going to be big changes but for the most part the past winners continue to win and th elosers continue to lose.
Mildly disagree. We've seen some early examples of rough justice. Think Madoff, the dissolution of the IBs, auto manufacturer stockholders, etc.
There's gonna be more of that. I think the insurers are next and I don't think the tarp is gonna cover them. Insurance companies are little old lady stocks and dare I say it? Buffet. Sacred cows are the new hamburger.
Following up on Comrade_Bizantyne_Ruins' post, in exacting acquiescence and governance, there is one thing the state's supply capacity is nearly infinite: TERROR.
It is worth to remember that the late British Foreign Minister, Robin Cook, said that 'Al Qaeda' simply does not, and has never existed. Thank you, Chertoff, for turning the homeland into the West Bank.
Mad Max, although not entirely out of the question, isn't very likely. A major change in the political landscape is in the wind, though, and the process of getting there won't be entirely peaceful. Not a change in the basic structure of our government, mind you, but a big difference in the way it's actually conducted.
I don't consider it so much a revolution as much as getting back to basics; IOW, my "national bankruptcy" premise. If we really clean house and get our priorities straight the USA can remain on top for the foreseeable future.
And, frankly, I don't like the alternatives.
p.s.: For the moment, though, the occupants of DC will continue to actively deny and/or delay the inevita
dryfly writes: - 'L' side of the spectrum. I see nothing changing that in th enear term [my & my kids lifetimes].
Wow, that was a powerful statement...
I have the similar view, and i think the real worry is a transition to a state of personal freedoms loss... i just don't think this crowd will be able to shed the skin of over-consumption and move into a new economic order of productive works. But, it must happen...kicking and screaming all the way, or by iron fisted rule...one why or the other lifestyles are in for a huge adjustment. I would hate to be living in the UK right now. They are going to go down hard...very hard.
I think there are going to be big changes but for the most part the past winners continue to win and th elosers continue to lose.
I'd also disagree. In many ways the rich have been even more insulated from real world considerations than j6p, and many are unlikely to have made even moderate provisions for surviving a "new world order".
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins
i feel like i'm being cornered here. that usually means that i'm blinding myself to some glaringly obvious solution. i'm also getting the feeling that you think that this crisis we've been talking about will end badly. i'd really like to know what you think is going to happen in china.
Counterpointer(Excellent) writes: sneering nihilist / byz - Mandate of Heaven review in Q1 & 2.
This is an interesting situation and one I think about a lot.
I think Katrina was an IMMENSE blow to the national psyche.
I think the TARP was an equal blow to a different part of the polity's faith in the system.
There is no question the Mandate is exposed to withdrawal, but it isn't gone yet.
There will have to be another crisis for it to be withdrawn, but I think it really is that close.
I think Obama has a lot resting on his shoulders. I will be very interested in seeing how his first few months play out, and what happens internationally in the topsy-turvy do-as-you-please twilight of the mad emperor's rule.
This won't end smoothly. That's the ultimate conflict. Comfortable people want to remain comfortable but it turns out their comfort is the problem. The "smoothest" transition in modern history is/was South Africa and that was good for what? A decade? No thanks. Better we rip the bandaid off and let sunlight and a fresh breeze do their work.
WSJ: Pakistan Moves Troops As Ties Fray With India - WSJ.com
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Pakistan began moving thousands of troops to the Indian border Friday, intelligence officials said, sharply raising tensions triggered by the Mumbai terror attacks.
... Both countries have said they want to avoid military conflict over the attacks. But India has not ruled out the use of force as it presses its neighbor to crack down on the Pakistani-based terrorist group it blames for the attack.
Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has promised to respond aggressively if attacked but reassured India on Friday that Pakistan would not strike first. "We will not take any action on our own," Mr. Gilani told reporters. "There will be no aggression from our side."
thankyou for rescuing this thread, you know who you are. I had never heard "Mandate of Heaven" with the caps b4. sort of describes what i have been feeling in my guts but couldnt describe. same but different indeed
sneering nihilist(Unrated) writes: i'm also getting the feeling that you think that this crisis we've been talking about will end badly. i'd really like to know what you think is going to happen in china.
Massive overcapacity-led depression in a society already undergoing agrarian collapse and providing the frailest of safety nets, and the state itself has a weak self-perception of identity and mission.
I think it will be interesting, and I think the Pearl River Delta and its regional environs will be a place of great notability, how's that?
unhappyCakeEater writes:
thankyou for rescuing this thread, you know who you are. I had never heard "Mandate of Heaven" with the caps b4. sort of describes what i have been feeling in my guts but couldnt describe. same but different indeed
I sometimes get the feeling that some of the participants on CR are practicing LeGuin's Lathe of Heaven.
As the Pakistani military evacuates from the tribal strongholds to reinforce the Indian frontier, wonder how that will play with the ongoing insurgent campaign to cut off the US/Nato supply lines...
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins: I think Katrina was an IMMENSE blow to the national psyche.
I just gave this idea of yours a quick thought-test by comparing a similar theoretical disaster in a Canadian port. Lets say for example that a tsunami hit Halifax harbour. Well, the whole country would pull together over night. The shores of Halifax within 24hrs would look like the evacuation Allied troops from Dunkirk...with just the fishing boats from NFLD sailing to assist the scene. The military would have arrived within 24hrs, and tons of supplies and evacuation assistance from just the regional civilian population would occur. If anything less than a complete countrywide gov resource effort to bail out the population from their disaster was not immediately mobilised, there would be paramount shame and National outcry - heads would roll instantly in the Government and it would be over-turned in short order.
Some Canadians might disagree, but that's what I think.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear)(Excellent) writes: Seems to me everything that needs to be done will run almost diametrically opposite to typical Democratic platforms. Should be interesting.
I agree, I think he'll fall to an intuitive solution that turns out to compound the situation. Specifically I think he won't be able to restrain spending until there's a funding crisis.
But we'll see. It's a time of uncertain future so I merely observe what the loom of history brings to tomorrow.
i always appreciate your reading recommendations- that one looks good!
i think a lot of people know something big is coming, like birds know a storm is coming- its just that the realization can't break thru that raft of goop on the surface of their minds
Specifically I think he won't be able to restrain spending until there's a funding crisis. Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 7:17 pm | #
Yes, there appears to be little doubt about that given the plans for another $1T stimulus and his "deficits don't matter these next couple years" statements. In line with Rob's "rip the bandaid off" I'd like to see that funding crisis come along now. THAT would show what stuff Obama was really made of.
The 3rd house north of me is foreclosed and vacant, see-thru house.
The neighbor to the south - a really friendly and amzingly hard-working man od Indian origin - moved in in Nov 2006. He just informed me his mortgage payment had just jumped 36% - an impossible level - he's letting it go if he doesn't get it modified (and we all know how easy those loan mods are, 'coz Sheila told us so).
Nice, established neighborhood, built up in the 50s (and 60s?).
citizen energyecon writes:
"In a garden, growth has its season...as long as the roots are not severed, all is well, and all will be well in the garden."
I think Katrina was an IMMENSE blow to the national psyche.
To those decent sectors of the national psyche, it was.
For others, it just confirmed the base belief that opportunity knocks. Disaster capitalism is still dining out on Katrina, a little bon bon after the delicious meal of Iraq.
Breaking news: In a new Treasury plan to boost the economy, Paulson and Kashkari are grinding roots to use as fertilizer for the now-rootless plants. Extraordinary growth expected.
Agree w/Comrade Bear that "everything that needs to be done" will be counterintuitive to Dem platforms.
This, to my thinking, gives Obama a chance: he will have to summon something more dramatic than the safe neoliberal rubbish his Wall St. owners had counted on.
Seems to me everything that needs to be done will run almost diametrically opposite to typical Democratic platforms. Should be interesting. Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 12.26.08 - 7:11 pm | #
"In a garden, growth has its season...as long as the roots are not severed, all is well, and all will be well in the garden."
Frost, you forgot killer frost:
Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening
Whose woods these are I think I know.
His house is in the village though;
He will not see me stopping here
To watch his woods fill up with snow.
My little horse must think it queer
To stop without a farmhouse near
Between the woods and frozen lake
The darkest evening of the year.
He gives his harness bells a shake
To ask if there is some mistake.
The only other sound's the sweep
Of easy wind and downy flake.
The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
I don't view the U.S.' position in as benign a way as most do here. From my experience, the U.S. is the country most prone to violence in the developed world. With huge arsenals of weaponry in private hands and aggression between population groups at heightened levels, I am not so confident that it will play out peacefully. Add much higher crime levels and tensions are bound to overflow. With States and counties in dire straits and therefore very little ability to even support decent law enforcement, it is bound to get interesting.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
...THAT would show what stuff Obama was really made of...
You could have observed in multiple Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings! Nothing messianic there (but also not as dumb as Hillary)!
He came across as just an ordinary "junior" Senator with the ordinary "run of the mill" type questions.
And have you heared any political program of his other than "change" ?
I think Katrina was an IMMENSE blow to the national psyche.
I have to wonder what Gustav did our energy psyche. Just 3 months ago you COULD NOT FIND gasoline in Georgia and the Carolinas, and it was rationed for another month.
Yes, we have cheap gas again but the Colonial Pipeline infrastructure and refinery locations are the same.
When you a raiding the lawn mower for gas to drive to the store, you think more seriously about the "veneer of civilization" and how close to breakdown we could come.
Along the lines of foreign adventures and the Mandate of Heaven, one set of concerns run much closer to home: a borderline failed state on our southern border, and Chavez's "easy out" for a restive population a war with Colombia...just sayin'
What dryfly said upthread, things will be weirder than we expect...
Countdown to Obama's first war...
That Barton Fink Feeling
You ain't a real modern US Prez until you botch a war.
I cannot think of a less desirable time to take the wheel of the ship of state.
Barry has no choice. He must withdraw slowly from the 'Stan and the 'Raq. I don't even want to hear any good/bad stuff. The next President is constrained by events not morality.
The rest of the US needs to keep a careful eye on Kalifornia. What 17% of your economy can you afford to lose?
citizen energyecon, A Venezuela attack on Colombia would result in a rude surprise for Senor Chavez. I think the cartels are well armed and have experienced foot soldiers. The cartels might stand aside for a while to see if Chavez could achieve victory over the Colombian government, and then move in to destroy the Venezuelan forces.
Somehow, I visualize Werner as wearing a spiked helmet and monocle as he puffs on his cigarette between thumb and index finger... Homedad43 | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 5:28 pm | #
All we can hope for now is that the banks somehow keep the 'sucker' or 'dimwit' consumers in their bubble priced, ponzi scheme, 'securitized' crap homes and have to pay at least twice what the deflated 'assets' are really worth with the bubble premium that banks demand in the bubble refis & mods.
Roo ot for the banks completing this ponzi and taking the profits from it and not get stuck with their bubble losses.
I agree with Rob Dawg regarding Iraq and Afghanistan. Our supply lines are being cut and we should leave Iraq to its citizens. It's time for a complete rethink of US military and foreign policy.
Obama won't need to do a thing - some current analysis pegs the oil price that balances Venezuela's plans as they currently stand at $97/barrel - somebody somewhere isn't going to get the goods they thought they were...
The Bolivaran was turned back by the electorate in his last attempt to rewrite the constitution to allow an essentially open ended Chavez presidency a year ago, and in the last month lost the areas with the largest population centers (Caracas, Maracaibo and I forget the third - Carabobo?) in municipal elections.
Chavez's legitimacy continues to erode, and in the low price environment for oil it is difficult to see how he can continue to deliver basic political goods when inflation is running rampant, and price controls have resulted in real scarcity of many staples. I am not advocating a course of action with respect to Chavez, but rather observing that ginning up an external conflict is a timeworn approach to redirecting internal dissatisfaction with a regime.
If 'we' get out of the Middle East, where are the war profits from the so-called 'war on terrorism' going to be made? Depressions bring the need for jobs at munitions factories apparently if history is our guide.
War is now part of our ponzi economy especially if profits can't be taken from the bubble scam.
Anak - welcome back - seems like HK has been missing in this engagement. I've been joking around that the Hang Seng should be renamed the Tan King, as it seems seriously headed down.
But for the wider board, let's remember that Babylon has long been an evil to be fought however one may, includin tru wicked dub (sorry, can't help it, from me time w' de Bajans):
"When you a raiding the lawn mower for gas to drive to the store, you think more seriously about the "veneer of civilization" and how close to breakdown we could come."
Question for the group (with the disclaimer that since we don't drive much, hugely expensive gas in the short-term is somewhat acceptable to us...):
In GA we had gas stations that simply ran out of gas, causing us to have to stalk stations that might have received a refill. After the supplies started flowing again, I mentioned to my FIL that I thought pure free-market principles should dictate that at least some stations would continue to raise prices higher and higher as supplies dwindled, so that there would ultimately be that one last gallon that no one could afford. His response was that, as a small business owner, he thought that no gas station owner would want the reputation as "the guy that price-gouged in a shortage." His theory was that after the shortage was resolved, the bad reputation would linger...
What do you all think? Let prices rise to a market-clearing price or let your pumps run out and resist accusations of price-gouging?
Anonymous writes:
I think the Pakistanis are doing this to force US mediation.
Or because the Pakistani army cannot afford to look weak. Besides, the Pakistani army might want to make sure the popular attention is not focused on the disastrous state of the Pakistani economy.
I am afraid that the Indian government might feel it cannot afford to look weak either.
The FDIC will insure your pony up to 250,000 ponies until 2020. It is a good time to remind Americans that no pony owners have ever lost a pony penny on their insured ponies. Now is the best time to buy your pony today.
Byzantine ruins,you were describing California as well as China.I am happy to report that Terminous Ca appears to be untouched by the Housing Bubble ...The only place in the state to have escaped as far as I can tell.
C, heads not in HK at the moment. I got back from Godzone just before X'mas. Basically just to see some friends in N. island. Golly gee, they've got the Anglo American disorder in spades. Same debt crazed run up in housing prices, same constrained income generating opportunities. Rates still high and a weaker Kiwi might entice outside money to the rescue, but Japanese housewifes won't be it.
Know you've got some connections there. Hope they're well and unlevered. Any take from your side?
Basically it looks like sellers must hit any bid that surfaces.
I mentioned to my FIL that I thought pure free-market principles should dictate that at least some stations would continue to raise prices higher and higher as supplies dwindled, so that there would ultimately be that one last gallon that no one could afford. His response was that, as a small business owner, he thought that no gas station owner would want the reputation as "the guy that price-gouged in a shortage." His theory was that after the shortage was resolved, the bad reputation would linger... j marston | 12.26.08 - 8:32 pm | #
Your FIL is probably right, but I believe that GA has some serious anti-price gouging laws. A small business owner cannot afford the bad reputation, the subsequent legal costs, and the possibility of jail time. Also, if his station has a big company's name on the sign, they would cut him off.
I am afraid that the Indian government might feel it cannot afford to look weak either.
MrM | 12.26.08 - 8:44 pm | #
I fear an almost inevitable decay into conflict, where the pursuit of domestic political objectives drives the two sides into a conflict that neither actively desires...
In North Carolina the state AG was talking down prices by saying he'd be on the watch for "gouging" - so nobody was willing to sell for over $4 a gallon. It was a concocted crisis - yet it still was a hardhsip for people.
Yes, I stalked my local station too. Set my alarm at 4 in the morning hoping to hit it right after a shipment. I won't forget that things like that CAN happen in the good 'ol first world USA.
I still think there is a power struggle going on in Pakistan. Perhaps a 3 way one. Current gov v. (x) v. Muslim hardcore. (x) is playing with the hardcore side for support, and going to get burned doing it.
After visually checking the neighborhood trash for the usual bags of wrapping paper and discarded boxes. Including other neighborhoods my conclusion is nobody bought much this year in my tiny little corner of the world.
Also I think Borders Bookstores will join Sears soon...
$4 a gallon? We were stopped out at $3.99 (regular -- no premium available) until the pumps ran dry.
@ NorkaWest:
I agree with your analysis; the FIL professes to be a hardcore "freemarket" guy so I was really just trying to tweak him on the scope and depth of his beliefs.
Unfortunately I was convinced to go to Tysons Corner Mall. We spent 1.52 hours trying to leave the parking garage. Based on what I saw, and heard, violence is never far away in urban America.
We are on the heels of a cautious volatile year, though exciting, but mostly unsteady. The stars are warning of numerous crisis, collapses and social downfalls. The position of Saturn, Uranus and Pluto is disturbing Calm and control are the only answer this year
We ought to make use of this year to reconsider our situation and reassess the past in order to hold on to whats meaningful and precious in our life and build upon our dreams and aspirations
"And only one thing can come from a big military........"
Yeah, a real big human monkey zoo dust up. We'll see who is right in "loving God" and eventually, who is LEFT to pick up the pieces...probably will be just a group of Swedish lesbian blonds...
I think Micron in Boise will also close down. I know a couple people who have been transfered to their plant in Utah and these people are the real workers there, it's just a matter of time ...
What happened? According to Merriman, Saturn and Uranus entered an orb of influence with one another. Saturn rules control, boundaries and tradition, and this collided with Uranus, a breakdown in status quo. When these planets align with Pluto, an economic disaster on the scale of the Great Depression is possible, he says. But it is just as possible that a great surge in creativity could occur, as these planets also aligned in the 15th century Renaissance.
If people fail to rally around a new leader and invest time and savings in growth-producing factors, he sees a crash severe enough to put 80 to 90 percent of today's businesses out of existence.
How long will the recession last? In the worst scenario, economic woes could linger through 2019, he says. Best case, with hope and cooperation, the recession could be over in 18 months.
"Whatever occurs this is a very sobering time that challenges the soundness and resilience of our basic human character," Merriman said.
...They needed to move deeper into advanced materials & such - didn't get there in time. - dryfly
Let's be honest, they couldn't steal it fast enough. I think even Walmart in the last few years may have finally wised up and realized the folly of asymmetrical technology transfer. If the US had been being compensated for just the theft of intellectual property there wouldn't be a negative balance of payments issue.
It's also why we just don't need as many manufacturing or agricultural workers. We are there already in plenty of time.
"The CFR set, Obama included, know very well that the USA and China act in concert.
Is this really true? Is there a secret economic war room somewhere, even a notional one, in which a Chinese and US policy elite makes plans and issues orders? Somehow, this lacks plausibility.
This morning's WSJ gave me the impression the restructuring of GMAC still depended on the consent of enough bondholders, with a much-delayed vote to conclude today. Any update on that?
See, the thing is, I used to come here for Dryfly, Rich, LawyerLiz, CSC (we miss him!) and others (Bondgirl, Gary, etc.), but this "me in leather" shit and your willingness to put it all out there, as it were... you are heading to number 1 with a bullet.
Okay with me if you stop before you reach the top.
We're not automatons. We are given freedom. We have choices.
BATTLES IN THE HILLS
All quiet on a Christmas afternoon,
Two thousand eight years in procession later,
Now a night of mirrors on the moon,
Reflections of apocalypse and slaughter
Cold mirages rising from a road,
Winter coming, battles in the hills;
Ezekiel and Jeremiah show
That prophecies of action are fulfilled
Herald angels looked beneath and saw
Christ Messiah infant on the Earth,
Son of God, fulfillment of the Law,
Deathless one submitting to a birth
They saw below that Herod was a fool
Though clever to defend his perquisites,
His progeny as stupid and as cruel,
Gifted self-sufficient idiots
They saw the common tragedy of lust,
Eros of the miser and the swine,
The ever-hungry appetite for dust:
Mine is mine, and yours is also mine
They saw the Crucifixion and the war
That would destroy the Temple of the Lord,
The heavy weight of blood that Jesus bore:
Peter stay awake, let go the sword
2009? Ugly, but predictions of the demise of the US turn out to be as wrong as decoupling and subprime containment. Ed S. | 12.26.08 - 5:53 pm | #
I tend to agree but the rough patch is going to be plenty rough and in the end we'll be a very different country. Not all of the 'different' will be better either.
The biggest reason I think it isn't the complete end of US prominence is that everyone else has as big or bigger problems. Another example of winning by default.
Let's be honest, they couldn't steal it fast enough. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 5:57 pm | #
Exactly. They ran out of game. Conjure is thinking real PCE for Q4 may print at only -1.1% (annual rate) due to rapidly falling prices in December. \t mp | \t \t \t \t12.26.08 - 5:58 pm | #
I agree - prices are falling faster than suppliers can cut them [on each other - to keep their market share].
first
In the next frame, the girl moves her knee sharply forward.
I'm struggling with a ponyless existence also. Maybe have to right a book about it... The Pony Of My Discontent©
i got a fake pony for Christmas (made out fresh, compressed pony dung), apparently they ran out of the real ones. i trademark "phonypony".
A squirrel inside a mortgage pig inside a pony...
Ponpiggyrrel the new holiday main course. Served on a bed of greenbacks cover with a tarp.
Wonder why gold is moving up?
Glod is the same price it was this time last year. Looking at ticks is not gonna tell you anything.
That's a Ziggy !
Heckuva big tick fo gold, and it's higher than it was this time last year.
Almost as funny as Nancy, but only when Sluggo is at his wittiest.
Heckuva big tick fo gold, and it's higher than it was this time last year.
Really?
Kitco Inc. - Past Historical London Fix
Ticks are not trends. Could be nothing more than a large single purchase. Could be a pump and dump play. There's just no telling. Ticks are extremely noisy. Let's see if it gets sold into. I guess yes.
The glod spike stopped me out of my DZZ (slight profit). GLD will more than likely test that high volume high of 86.91. And today's move is on much lighter volume: 3.5 mil. vs. 22 mil.
Also sold my USO this morning for a loss. USO dropped 3% after a nice rally in 20 minutes. I'm targeting the first Fib. extension at 25.50.
Thread Music;
Beatles - "I Dig A Pony" Rooftop Concert 1969
YouTube -
Also See: FINRA - Investor Information - Market Data - Bonds - Bond Yield and Performance at-a-glance
As yields decline, we will see The Three-Year Treasury decrease towards zero and the 30-Year fall below 2%, other than that, everything is cool.
Also sold my USO this morning for a loss. USO dropped 3% after a nice rally in 20 minutes. I'm targeting the first Fib. extension at 25.50.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 1:53 pm | #
FEB CL up over a buck and USO down nearly a buck. "Splain it, please.
Re: we will see The Three-Year Treasury decrease towards zero and the 30-Year fall below 2%
meant to say, as the 3-month remains below zero ... what was I thinking?
Obviously asking the wrong santa...
YouTube -
4shzl writes:
FEB CL up over a buck and USO down nearly a buck. "Splain it, please.
I explained it Wednesday. NYSE closed at 1:00pm, so USO closed at 29.02. Not 5 minutes later, crude futures tank another 6% for the session. USO after hours declines to the low $27s. So USO actually "gapped up" in sympathy with crude today - despite its market hour sessions showing a gap down and new low for today. Yeah, it's confusing, but the important point is USO made a nice intraday rally to 28.96 and puked.
and the 30-Year fall below 2%
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 2:00 pm | #
Well below. ;>)
USO is a derivative with Unknown Exact inputs. trade the real thing. it's cheaper.
And don't be lazy about no commodity account. It takes 5 minutes no big funding requirements.
When I get laid off, can I also become a cartoonist for Calculated Risk? Might as well ...
Pimco High Income Fund Removes Limits on Managers Using Swaps, Derivatives
Run for Your Lives!
Really?
http://www.kitco.com/gold.londonfix.html
Yes. Really.
2007-12-27 822.50 829.00
@ Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse
Grazie mille. ;>)
Told ya we would've been better off with ponies.
trade the real thing.
jus sayin | 12.26.08 - 2:07 pm | #
I'm fearful of the manner in which I might be obliged to "take delivery." Quart by quart . . .
fear is what keeps the masses docile
quit paying some guys salary at the etf.
Uncle Neil is looking for a heart of glod.... still.
YouTube - Neil Young - Heart of Gold
C
PonziMonetizaCoruptiCapitalism writes:
Pimco High Income Fund Removes Limits on Managers Using Swaps, Derivatives
Because they've been leaving too much money on the table by not being able to trade swaps and derivatives without limit?
Why do they insist on testing to destruction? Don't answer, OPM and churn.
QUAKE
ever been a better time to buy or sell gold ponies.
Earthquake?
Map Centered at 39°N, 123°W
Trouble at work, can't stand the TARP that you're not getting?
YouTube - AC/DC (aka Acca Dacca) - Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap (1976)
Your thinking of this place all wrong, the gold ponies aren't here, but try looking in Joe's house...
QUAKE
Californicated | 12.26.08 - 2:24 pm | #
Didn't feel it here in the San Francisco financial district?
How strong was it?
These bonds go to zero..
These Go To Eleven
YouTube -
1.9-2.8 magnitude. a nothingburger.
location: The Geysers (Sonoma & Lake counties)
I guess they pumped too much steam from the aquifer so its settling.
A 4.5 magnitude earthquake struck northern California on Friday, the US Geological Survey said, revising an earlier report of a stronger quake.
The tremor occurred at 4:19 am (1219 GMT) with the epicenter three kilometers (two miles) northeast of the small town of East Quincy, and 163 kilometers (102 miles) northeast of the state capital Sacramento, according to the USGS.
An earlier report from the USGS said the quake was 5.0 in magnitude.
There were no immediate reports of casualties or major damage.
y no boggie... was worried, whewwww
y no boggie... was worried, whewwww
Californicated | 12.26.08 - 2:45 pm | #
Ask your wife or girlfriend if the earth moved for her?
Remember to duck when the slap comes your way.
I've only felt one quake and that was Feb 28 2001 in the PNW, which was 6.8
Anonymous(Unrated) writes:
\tWonder why gold is moving up?
\t AnonymousThe backwardation story continues to have potential.
If gold backwardates, it's a pretty big thing.
Also, gold is very near breaking out of a technical trend channel that has been in place for most of 2008. If it breaks through the top of the channel, it could go a lot higher.
Used to live in the Marina district prior to the 1989 quake.
It was interesting.
One day you Californians will succeed with your "secession" movement...
One day you Californians will succeed with your "secession" movement...
\t
one_timmy | 12.26.08 - 2:55 pm | #
It would help stablize house prices in Bakersfield and Stockton if it turned them into beachfront property.
CNBC is bringing in an astronomer analyst now..great.
Up in january and down in february followed by a lil more up and down end '09.
So much for Christmas, peace on earth and all that "crap". Israelis against Palestinians and Lebanese, Pakistanis against Indians and what else...
Even if those idiots had a whole pristine planet for each of them, they would all spend the first 100 years building space nuke rockets to get "even" with the other planet. Loving God sure is a serious killing business.
This friggin human monkey zoo circus is seriously starting to PISS ME OFF!
Ponzi Nation
Jesse's Café Américain: Ponzi Nation
In the meantime buckle up, because Uncle Sugar-Daddy still has the keys to the car.
First of all, Timmy, the majority in each of those countries, with the possible exception of Lebanon, is not Christian, and could care less about the season. Second, speaking for Israelis, the vast majority could care less about "Loving God". Jews are looking to be left alone by the majority religions, and have found it impossible over the last 2000 years without a homeland.
Nothing worse than a devalued dong.
Vietnam devalues dong
FT.com / Asia-Pacific - Vietnam devalues dong
Thread music:
GEORGE HARRISON DING DONG DING DONG
YouTube -
Food continues its strong run.
DBA up another 3% today.
Commodities are turning around on dollar weakness. Don't miss the opportunity.
Vietnam devalues dong
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ e074a1...0077b07658.html
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 3:17 pm | #
Is the dong long silver?
Commodities are turning around on dollar weakness. Don't miss the opportunity.
I don't know rich, i mean dollar index still holding above 80.
The commodities may turn on fundamentals though.
Then there's still those pesky de-leveraging and redemptions around the corner.
CR theme picture: "No, You Can't Have a Pony," featuring a crying little girl and a photo inset of a pony that says "Not Yours."
Commodities are turning around on dollar weakness. Don't miss the opportunity.
rich | 12.26.08 - 3:19 pm | #
I've been building a position in USO for the last week, average price 33.46/share. I don't claim to know where the bottom is, but if you look at price per barrel in real dollars, oil hasn't been this cheap since the 70's. I believe inflation is inevitable at some point. I'm prepared to wait for a couple of years, if need be.
I'm also holding GLD for much the same reason, but I think gold is pretty expensive right now compared to oil.
"Jews are looking to be left alone by the majority religions, and have found it impossible over the last 2000 years without a homeland."
Yeah, let's put 30 million Russians into California and have them declare New Russia and put those pesky native Californians into refugee camps....
those pesky native Californians into refugee camps....
one_timmy
Native Californians got run off 150-200 yrs. ago
Some nice music :
YouTube -
Spoke to a wheat trader a while ago who said food is still getting cheaper to produce per acre every year. I'm bullish on inflation for minerals and energy, though.
Native Californians got run off 150-200 yrs. ago
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 3:28 pm | #
Don't feed the troll.
Jews are natives there too, never left. In fact, until very recent Russian influx, there were more Jews in Israel from Muslim countries than Christian.
Jews are natives there too, never left. In fact, until very recent Russian influx, there were more Jews in Israel from Muslim countries than Christian.
1 currency soon [yogi] | 12.26.08 - 3:31 pm | #
WTF does any of this have to do with anything we'd want to talk about on CR? Please, don't feed the troll. TYVM.
Wonder why gold is moving up?
I made it go up. I sold GLD before the pop today.
I made it go up. I sold GLD before the pop today.
Lol. Some music for you : YouTube -
1 currency soon [yogi] writes:
Jews are natives there too, never left.
Yeah, it's mostly the pesky neighbors whose olive trees were bulldozed for security and then covered over by settler homesteads.
They were natives until they became inconvenient for the Zionist narrative of manifest destiny, now they suffer in the world's largest concentration camps, paid for by Uncle Sugar with dollars he don't have.
"Don't feed the troll.
PapaSloth | 12.26.08 - 3:29 pm | #"
Ah, must be another multicultygumbayaa night. Hard issues must be avoided, somebody might get offended and cry mama.
Yeah, it's mostly the pesky neighbors whose olive trees were bulldozed for security and then covered over by settler homesteads.
The_Littlest_Mandarin | 12.26.08 - 3:36 pm | #
Every thread on CR does not need to be a referendum on Zionism or a battle between the conservatives and liberals.
Please, don't feed the troll. Thank you.
Concentration camps? You ain't seen nothin.
The Wall St free marketeering thieves are pinning their hypocrite asses on the mana from ObamaHeaven.
Just disgusting. Anything to avoid actually doing work for $$$$. When does the public finally get tired of being fleeced ?
WTF does any of this have to do with anything we'd want to talk about on CR?
Let me hazard this guess: Wall street is sympathetic to Israeli causes, more so than say Christian fundamentalist causes. Wall Street owns/controls the federal government. Wall Street is also sympathetic towards wars that goose spending. If Wall Street wants a war in the Middle East, it's no more difficult to arrange than another 7 trillion dollar bail out.
Draft bankers and some of this problem goes away.
PapaSloth writes:
WTF does any of this have to do with anything we'd want to talk about on CR?
Why does America trouble itself with Israel? Guilt from WW2 is a fading memory.
Israel is a US proxy and clieent serving as a beachehad for possibly regional entry during military actions to secure US gulf petroleum supplies. It's essentially a macroeconomic construct of America, without constant political cover and infusions of cash and guns, they'd have fallen apart long ago from some macroeconomic malaise.
In short -- Israeli Zionist movement's "manifest destiny" project for remains of Palestine -> Regional instability -> threat to oil flow and petronation dollar recycling pump.
Not to mention terrible global publicity and significant cash and weapons outlays -- many of which are traded abroad by our Israeli friends. Check out the saga of the Harpy antiradiation drone's sale to China.
It's not about racism or religious bigotry on my part, it's just about a nation that wants to take land from weaker neighbors to appease a vocal minority, and how they are too troublesome and embarassing to maintain as an imperial client.
PapaSloth writes:
Every thread on CR does not need to be a referendum on Zionism or a battle between the conservatives and liberals.
You are the only person making no-content posts.
WTF is this then?
"We're paying about a billion dollars per day less than we were in July" for gasoline, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service. "We could probably bail out some banks and maybe even some of the auto companies with the savings."
Anonymous writes:
WTF is this then?
"We're paying about a billion dollars per day less than we were in July" for gasoline, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service. "We could probably bail out some banks and maybe even some of the auto companies with the savings."
Rejoice! Someone has come up with a new way to spend income your unborn grandchildren haven't yet earned!
We aren't "saving" a billion a day in lower petrol prices. We are merely not overspending by a like amount. Big difference.
Rejoice! Someone has come up with a new way to spend income your unborn grandchildren haven't yet earned!
Unborn grandchildren will move away and come back when it is a-ok! That's the plan.
>without constant political cover and infusions of cash and guns, they'd have fallen apart long ago from some macroeconomic malaise.<
Absolute bullshit.
The US certainly got started with foreign infusion of cash and guns. I suppose the Native Americans would have more publicity if their heroes blew up as many American children as they could, but they suffer in "concentration camps" peacefully. Where do you live?
I tried but this thread is officially dead. Please, please don't carry any of this over when a new thread appears. Please.
Jews are natives there too, never left. In fact, until very recent Russian influx, there were more Jews in Israel from Muslim countries than Christian
1 currency soon [yogi] | 12.26.08 - 3:31 pm | #
No troll feeding or PapaSloth will send us to your room without desert.
Let's argue about peak oil. That sounds interesting.
Or this inflation / deflation thingy.
I'm done. I can only hold my long nose at so much horseshit.
..or realities of dollar weakness. Please, no 2k year old debates. Head. Hurts.
..or realities of dollar weakness.
So what's this i hear about the Amero?
Let's argue about peak oil. That sounds interesting.
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 3:55 pm | #
I'm still waiting for my whale-oil futures to come back. People need to keep their lamps lit.
eeeww! how am i to properly waste time sitting at work on what should by rights be a holiday when somebody pukes on a perfectly good thread? stop it or ill have to do something productive!
I suppose the Native Americans would have more publicity if their heroes blew up as many American children as they could, but they suffer in "concentration camps" peacefully.
Too well-murdered to take their land back. Maybe you missed the part where Uncle Sugar stole the land from them again and again in every way possible, and then bloodily suppressed their futile attempts to seize justice.
Where do you live?
America -- that land of thieves and breigands that has bankrupted itself and even now seeks to bankrupt the rest of the world with its greed.
Parents immigrated in the 20th.
Are you arguing gtenocide can't be condemned by people who live in a nation that practiced it?
Kinda interesting argument, when does Israel have to take down the holocaust memorials, before or after the settlers have elbowed the last Palestinian into Jordan?
You should watch it when you try to make the whole "Americans can't condemn me when I murder thewse natives, you murdered natives too".
I mean, the difference between the Occupation and Ostland is just the size of the terrain where the previous claims on the land have been negated by force majeur.
YouTube -
The_Littlest_Mandarin
Meet CR Companion.
Enjoy purgatory.
Yep.
Stick a fork in it. It's done like yesterday's turkey.
OT comment/question however.
Spent last evening with family/friends and discussion with someone veered to China.
When you read the chinese missives in their journals/periodicals, think "there has to be a new reserve currency arrangement instead of the dollar" kind of thing, is that a given that they've going to move that way or is a trial balloon to gauge response?
Thinking of Scrooge with the ghost of Xmas future: "is this what is written or only one alternative" (or whatever the verbiage is...)?
Well that gold 'tick up' seems to be holding on pretty well, much to my consternation. Where's the banks when you need em. Lol.
"Is the dong long silver?"
Perhaps, but it's definitely long duck.
There has never been a better time to have a better time!
Or a better thread.
C
When you read the chinese missives in their journals/periodicals, think "there has to be a new reserve currency arrangement instead of the dollar" kind of thing, is that a given that they've going to move that way or is a trial balloon to gauge response?
They're just trying to gauge a response... ya think..
My money is on currency trade 'blocks' within regions.
China to try using yuan as settlement currency in some foreign deals: report
AFP: China to try using yuan as settlement currency in some foreign deals: report
When you read the chinese missives in their journals/periodicals, think "there has to be a new reserve currency arrangement instead of the dollar" kind of thing, is that a given that they've going to move that way or is a trial balloon to gauge response?
homedad43 | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 4:04 pm | #
They are all asking the wrong question - they need to ask who are they going to trade with if not the US. That is the currency they need to fill their 'basket' with. Or go it without a huge surplus.
The reason they haven't done that yet is they don't know who will replace the US as customer of last resort. So dollar hegemony goes on by default.
Apparently unions are bad for China if you're a multinational.
China Urges Foreign Firms To Form Trade Unions - Report
CNNMoney.com: 404 Page Not Found
So dollar hegemony goes on by default.
Till they find out the US is really broke and have no way of paying ever.
China to try using yuan as settlement currency in some foreign deals: report
http://www.google.com/ hostednews...MVnZR5fJGWp5nWA
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 4:09 pm | #
Again - wrong question. The question isn't that they can use other currencies - they can, always could, that is what arbitrage is all about - the question is what are they doing about the dollar peg? If they plant to maintain it how else other than the expensive & risky acquisition of potentially dodgy USD denominated assets? Or go cold turkey and don't run huge trade surpluses to the US.
They think their Asian neighbors are going to let them run huge surpluses for long?
Something has to give & China hasn't faced up to that one any better than our leaders have to our deficits. Which is exactly why both continue. It isn't an accident.
Chinese exports into USA are about 22 percent of their total exports and mere 7-9 percent of GDP. The yearly GDP growth alone have been much bigger than all US exports.
Till they find out the US is really broke and have no way of paying ever.
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 4:13 pm | #
That is the same day they find out they have no 'export sector'. That is going to be one very interesting day - if you are watching from far enough away.
China & the US. Heck, the political and financial systems are already indistinguishable. Call a merger of equals and their surplus and our deficit cancel. Win win.
dryfly - BINGO. The lag effect to create a confident domestic end-point consumer will take time possibly even generational, to change the psychology of saving, because governments can't be trusted and you may need your nutpile, to a psychology of consumption, hedonism, and credit- driven excess, because governments can't be trusted and you'd might as well enjoy yourself...
There are signs of this in the Ch nouveau riche but the middle class is still a nervous and cautious market, and also coming to terms with having bought RRE pitched by wide-boys and bubbleheads.
There are more trial balloons coming out of the middle kingdom than a 5 year old's birthday party. Test, test, retest, circumscribe trial, evaluate, re-apply, move forward, retrench, recast, recalibrate, apply, adjust, progress. It's tried and true and has been thus since 78 and I see no reason for it to change.
C
That is the same day they find out they have no 'export sector'.
We'll have to wait and see how that pans out. Let's see how bad this recession/depression gets and whether a new dynamic will arise.
Chinese exports into USA are about 22 percent of their total exports and mere 7-9 percent of GDP. The yearly GDP growth alone have been much bigger than all US exports.
one_timmy | 12.26.08 - 4:18 pm | #
Try pulling 7-10% of GDP out of a country that needs 8-10% GDP growth every year to avert 'revolution'. Then consider about as much export activity going to the EU which is also retrenching. And that doesn't even consider 'spearhead effect' GDP for things like roads, ports, rails which are NOT included in export GDP figures yet were decisions driven almost exclusively by export sector growth.
It is not going to be easy to walk that elephant backwards.
It appears the elephant is parked right now.
It appears the elephant is parked right now.
AP'Shadow | 12.26.08 - 4:26 pm | #
Ya or resting like the Python Parrot. Too big to bang on the counter.
I'm eating lunch in Pendleton. I see somebody needs to interject something interesting and non-controversial into the thread.
Me in leather!
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/images/meme/browardleather1.png
I've got a better outfit for NYE!
.
"Try pulling 7-10% of GDP out of a country that needs 8-10% GDP growth every year to avert 'revolution'. "
Everybody is going to be in the world of hurt but at least they got the factories now.
USA now has whopping 105 million service sector workers out of 145 million (12 million out of work already, total about 157).
Guess what will happen when there are going to be soon an army of 40-50 million unemployed American service sector workers and no hope whatsoever to get a job, any job for years to come....
Broward Horne:
Ooo.. what scary red eyes you have!
I'm eating lunch in Pendleton.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 4:38 pm | #
The chow hall at Camp Pendleton?!
And wouldn't you know it,all the banks and big corps. want a Box today!
Me in leather!
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 4:38 pm | #
My eyes! The goggles, zey do nuzzink!
Till they find out the US is really broke and have no way of paying ever.
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 4:13 pm | #
And that's when the jubilee begins!
Pony in a Box?
Comrade Terry(Excellent) writes:
The_Littlest_Mandarin
Meet CR Companion.
Enjoy purgatory.
Feel free to killfile this handle too.
Pakistan moves troops to India border
War is coming. This is not good.
it seems to be a forgone conclusion that there is some magical gdp growth number that will ignite a chinese revolution if it were to drop low enough. this makes sense to me, but i think it needs to be challenged. is there a magic number that would do the same thing in norway or canada? what is that number?
i think that many assumptions built into the
what the... where did my comment go?
one_timmy writes: Everybody is going to be in the world of hurt but at least they got the factories now.
They bought up every steel mill, production facility and whatever else they could, dismantled them piece by piece and reassembled them on the mainland. Let's see if they can keep up. Early reports place the outcome in doubt. Technology and all that.
USA now has whopping 105 million service sector workers out of 145 million (12 million out of work already, total about 157).
And there's the disconnect.
Guess what will happen when there are going to be soon an army of 40-50 million unemployed American service sector workers and no hope whatsoever to get a job, any job for years to come....
The thunder runs by uniformed military will increase.
i think that many assumptions built into the 'less than x gdp growth = chinese revolution' would seem silly if applied elsewhere or examined closely.
## The thunder runs by uniformed military will increase.
Bantha Fodder!
Poll: 75% glad Bush is done
What does that say about the other quarter?
Poll: 75% glad Bush is done
What does that say about the other quarter?
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 4:50 pm | #
it says that they are not glad that bush is done.
what do i win?
The thunder runs by uniformed military will increase.
Damn, 1929 again?
WAR, hope not.
Feel free to killfile this handle too.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 4:43 pm | #
I appreciate the offer, but I enjoy reading what you have to say.
What does that say about the other quarter?
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 4:50 pm | #
it says that they are not glad that bush is done.
Looks like someone is going to "win" IndyMac.
The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter News Pick-ups: EXCLUSIVE: FDIC to Sell IndyMac To Private Equity Firm
sneering nihilist(Unrated) writes:
it seems to be a forgone conclusion that there is some magical gdp growth number that will ignite a chinese revolution if it were to drop low enough. this makes sense to me, but i think it needs to be challenged.
Okay, well, "revolution" is a hard word. A period of extreme focus on internal matters in which economic development takes a back seat to sorting out issue of who is currently a distributional coalition / vested interest and who was formerly one. I guess the technical term would be something like "interdynastic lacuna of rule".
is there a magic number that would do the same thing in norway or canada? what is that number?
0 or effectively 0, same as everywhere.
Lapse of provision of political goods will quickly destroy the concept of state, no matter how peaceful the people. Look at Iceland. 6 weeks from dope smoking hippies to breaking into the jail to free arrested protesters.
IMO, the reason that the numbers required are so high is China is that the services won't trickle down to the effected parties due to the nature of the Chinese state.
This will give them an effective level of provided political goods of 0, so they need to get welfare-in-place by stabilizing the economy.
Comrade Terry(Excellent) writes:
I appreciate the offer, but I enjoy reading what you have to say.
Same poster, different locales, I don't post as Byz from work sites.
Instead of a pony, the girl could ask Santa for a trojan horse with a TARP made out of gold.
"## The thunder runs by uniformed military will increase."
Sorry, I don't understand that expression.
Re: " I don't post as Byz from work sites'
sneering nihilist(Unrated) writes:
I think that many assumptions built into the 'less than x gdp growth = chinese revolution' would seem silly if applied elsewhere or examined closely.
Any state where the mechanism for delivering political good breaks down will fail in extremely short order, regardless of locale.
>> One must have dignity! Good on yah dude!
YouTube -
"thunder runs by uniformed military"
I believe that when the American armored columns drove thru Bagdad, sectioning the city, they referred to the activity as "thunder runs".
I just went over a few old cartoons posted at CR and came up with this one (from David Horsey of Seattle Post-Intelligencer).
Calculated Risk: Horsey Cartoon: New Olympic Event
Damn, 1929 again?
WAR, hope not.
DutchR | 12.26.08 - 4:53 pm | #
Remember, an always overlooked fact.
Someone smarter than me will find the number, the US census only dates from 2000. Another due in 2010.
How many veterans reside here? How many will mobilize for some sort of Bonus March? Will they demand one?
Sorry, I don't understand that expression.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.26.08 - 5:01 pm | #
I was thinking of the White Horse Armored unit in Viet Nam. Once or twice a week they did a thunder run down the main highways with certain areas designated free fire zones.
Great cartoons from The PI!!
Seattle news, sports, entertainment | seattlepi.com - Seattle Post-Intelligencer
Click on David Horsey
25 favorites from 2008
On topic, for a cartoon related post:
I just found <a href="http://secretfunspot.blogspot.com/2006/11/ren-stimpy-production-music.html>Ren & Stimpy Production Music free to download. Raymond Scott and the like; a treasure trove of nostalgic filler.
The US is not immune. google the bonus marches of WW-I and just how close we came to our own socialist revolution. Now fast forward to Barry's promise to bring back the troops. You know, bring them back to a 586k new unemployment claims economy. All those Guardsmen who's jobs disappeared while they were serving are not gonna be happy.
Before that happens, we will create massive walls of trade protectionism and start to manufacturer almost everything domestically that America needs. But of course, that can't easily happen, because we've already shut down so many factories, don't have enough low-cost factory workers, and lack access to many raw materials including iron, zinc, copper and wood pulp.
Where do we get the things needed to create a new manufacturing base in North America? Well, you know, the Amero. Mexico and Canada.
Ren & Stimpy ► Yak Shaving Day
YouTube -
homedad43 writes:
...When you read the chinese missives in their journals/periodicals, think "there has to be a new reserve currency arrangement instead of the dollar" kind of thing, is that a given that they've going to move that way or is a trial balloon to gauge response?...
Just amazing! Does anyone really think that the currency of a nation which drove it's financial system (and financial state) to the brink of desaster is an appropriate "reserve currency" ?
Give me a brake.
caught that production music on a MeFi link yesterday. good stuff for sure. have you seen the recent resurrection of R&S? kinda dirtier, more growed up version. i like
Pavel Chichikov(Excellent) writes:
Sorry, I don't understand that expression.
"Roadrunning" -- Armored activity designed to set off mines and produce ambush contacts.
The goal is to force enemies -- usually irregular forces -- seeking to interdict roadways into either fighting losing confrontations with armored dragoons, or to "give up" the highway.
It's a constant, "sorta-purposeless" activity that in many ways just provides a screen of constant motion on the part of cavalry / armor elements deployed in the cavalry role throughout the depth of an operational area where counter-insurgency operations are taking place.
It helps a lot to let you mount unannounced kidnappings and raids, for example. Once people will no longer openly contend with you for ownership of the roadnet, you can use it to concentrate overwhelming force at any location, and this is used to harry irregulars by rolling up on safe houses and operational strongpoints unannounced.
Likewise, constant heavy patrolling and instant roadblocks tend to flush out people using the road net for transit.
In short, it's the regular force's method of highway interdiction in asymmetric warfare.
China--Here (below) is a great blog on China. Sounds like (over simplifying) that there is a debate within China between those that want to continue to export their way out of this mess and those who think building up internal consumption is the way to go. But choice #2 will take time so in the meantime, the transition will be more painful than thought a few months ago.
China Financial Markets
Broward Horne:
So, does that outfit have anything to do with the week+ of wild sex in the PNW?
What happens to the leather when it dries after being rained on?
Byz:
So, do the bosses read CR as well so that they know that it's YOU who's posting on company time?
Does Bush not have that deer in headlights look that I had never noticed before.
Maybe The HePau#12ShitPile Virus has invaded The Whitehouse.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins, interesting. just so i can be clear on what you are saying, would you please define "political goods"
do you mean services provided by the state?
Homedad43(Unrated) writes:
So, do the bosses read CR as well so that they know that it's YOU who's posting on company time?
No, I just don't want to connect the name directly with me at job sites. I often work at financial companies and trade shows.
Rob Dawg writes:
...their surplus and our deficit...
And that you call a merger of equals ?????
Werner:
Yes, Werner, that's why I asked.
We've done wonderful things to our dollar and I'm curious whether the Chinese think that they've got enough of a handle on their own issues to actually move away.
FWIW, the term is "give me a break."
If you're going to be sarcastic, at least spell it right.
Jeez.
sneering nihilist(Unrated) writes:
do you mean services provided by the state?
Yes, mostly intangible -- and thus no-lifespan -- products like illusion of physical security and assurance of impartial disputes resolution. States that fail to provide these lose legitimacy almost overnight, no matter how well-settled their rule was previously.
"Before that happens, we will create massive walls of trade protectionism and start to manufacturer almost everything domestically that America needs."
Nail salon owners and real-estate agents will magically turn into engineers and technicians? I don't think so. Unemployment rate is already skyrocketing and there is no more time to re-educate the workforce. Checkmate.
calling Dr. Tainter...
Somehow, I visualize Werner as wearing a spiked helmet and monocle as he puffs on his cigarette between thumb and index finger...
http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2003_11_06_papers/panel2_nov6.pdf
This taxonomy of comparative state capacity depends on an analysis of governance
capabilities. Fundamental to the analysis is performance the effective delivery by a nation-state
of the most crucial political goods. A political good is that intangible and hard to quantify claim
that a citizen once made on a sovereign and now make on the state. Those claims , indeed
obligations, inform the local political culture, and give content to the social contract between the
government and the citizen.
Discussion paper -- does not represent the views of the US Government
5
Discussion paper -- does not represent the views of the US Government
There is a hierarchy of political goods. None is as critical as the supply of security,
especially human security. The states prime function is to provide the political good of security
to prevent cross-border invasions and infiltrations, to eliminate domestic threats to or attacks
upon the national order and social structure, to prevent crime and any related dangers to human
security, and to enable citizens to resolve their differences with the state and their fellow
inhabitants without recourse to arms or other forms of physical coercion.
Other political goods can be supplied only within a framework of security. Modern states
strive to provide predictable methods of adjudicating disputes and regulating both the norms and
the mores of a society. The essence of that political good implies codes and procedures that
together comprise an enforceable body of law and contract, an effective judicial system and
norms that encompass the rule of law.
Other political goods typically supplied by states and expected by their citizens include
medical and health care; schools and educational instruction; roads, railways, harbors and other
arteries of commerce; a money and banking system; a fiscal and institutional context within
which citizens can pursue entrepreneurial goals and prosper; space for the flowering of civil
society; and methods of regulating the sharing of the environmental commons.
Just drove around the neighborhood. Saw more than a few local businesses (Taco Bell, little 'ethnic' grocery stores, gas stations, etc) that mysteriously went out of business between Christmas Eve and today. Muy rapido.
Anyone have a New years prediction?
pxb
Been shocked to see the number of Franchises closing already. TGIF went BK around here last week...
the newly opened Vietnamese restaurant closed across the street from a regional university. I guess the students weren't hungry.
haha I was trying to remember where that doc was when you posted the quote. Thankyou Byz - thats the kind of stuff i like to leave in the shitter at work. sowing the seeds, if you will
Well, Germany is winning this match, Homedad43. They did not throw away their manufacturing base for cheap trinkets and plasma teevees....
No, they were much more clever. Some backroom Goebbels did have a bright idea a while ago in Germany,
"Well, we cannot exactly enslave the Jews and Polish people anymore so why not just HIRE THEM!"
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 5:31 pm |
sweeeet. i'll be reading this for a while. be back in a bit.
Anyone have a New years prediction?
Tim and the American Miracle | 12.26.08 - 5:32 pm | #
It will happen at midnight December 31, 2008 at the International Date Line then spread like a fungus.
## It will happen at midnight December 31, 2008 at the International Date Line then spread like a fungus.
Comrade Volker the Viking
Ahhh, but the good news is that within 24 hours the entirety of 2008 will have been successfully contained.
I thought it was all contained about a year ago?! No? Wha happened?
@Comrade Volker the Viking, I truly am afraid that, in the near future, the biggest employer will be the US military.
And only one thing can come from a big military........
Byz - I'd call those public goods, since they're non-rival in the Olsen sense: like the provision of safety, security, rule of law, shoring up faith in contracts and their enforcement through transparent and reliable escalation and judgment, providing a stable investment climate without arbitrary policy changes and allowing regulation to work as intended.
Oh wait... what just happened? Where is that stuff?
C
2009?
Britney gets married and I get my first leather outfit.
I want me one of those...
China...revolution...dollar, etc. This is all so much projection.
The CFR set, Obama included, know very well that the USA and China act in concert. Our media create these illusions to deflect criticism toward the other side. China is no more responsible for our problems than we are theirs but we are in bed together. The sooner we embrace cooperation over competition, the sooner a global trade and finances recover and we can start inflating more bubbles.
I perdict they're going to close the only mall in Boise, most of the major retailers have gone under.
And only one thing can come from a big military........
DutchR | 12.26.08 - 5:39 pm | #
Meals on wheels!
Homedad43 writes:
...I'm curious whether the Chinese think that they've got enough of a handle on their own issues to actually move away...
May I kindly suggest that the Chinese may not be alone in that "break away" ?
P.S. Thanks for pointing that "brake" out. (Doesn't even qualify as a "Freudian typo").
Q: So, when is Ben going to let the FDIC pull insurance on MM funds?
A: It doesn't matter. Even if the insurance gets yanked the first loss will get bailed out.
Too big to fail == everything. In case you don't recognize socialism for the wealthy folks, this is it.
Everybody is going to be in the world of hurt but at least they got the factories now.
one_timmy | 12.26.08 - 4:41 pm | #
Electronics assembly plants, textile plants - means almost nothing - as worthless as the retail space we have. They needed to move deeper into advanced materials & such - didn't get there in time. Maybe that's why they seem so desperate to keep the game going a little longer - in the words of the quarterback who lost... "We didn't lose, we ran out of game."
They do have savings and even selling our assets at a loss will get them somewhere.
2009...Empty Malls become Housing for Military.
Cramers show is Calculated Risk tonight! I kid you not.
mp, is Conjure saying that the GDP deflator will become GDP inflator?
MrM | 12.26.08 - 6:10 pm | #
Hoocoodanode.
Re: " did I somehow land on some other board?"
"mp, is Conjure saying that the GDP deflator will become GDP inflator?"
Could be.
That would be a real head fake for Mr. Market.
"The biggest reason I think it isn't the complete end of US prominence is that everyone else has as big or bigger problems. "
So you wanna keep the plutocracy, rule of the uberwealthy? Only one representative per 700 000+ people? It all started with one per 30000 over two hundred years ago..
Sometimes it is better to let go off the "glorious" past or the past will bury you. If you wanna that democratic republic back, the only way is to downsize and downsize again to smaller, more manageable states.
That will mean California won't be attacking Iran or Kansas won't be bringing "democracy" to Venezuela or Chile. Big bad army bye bye.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins
okay, so gdp growth contraction does not cause a revolution in china, it causes a reduction in political goods. this reduction in political goods undermines the legitimacy of the state. the state then becomes a weak, failed, or collapsed one.
this chain of causation, like you said, would seem to apply everywhere. dosen't the chinese state have some options here? maybe they could stimulate domestic growth with their sovereign wealth fund? i understand why people would lean towards the opinion that china would destabilize rapidly but i just don't see that happening. i can imagine a rapid reorganization of what type of political goods are provided, as well as method of delivery. for instance, more "security" and less health care. maybe i'm overestimating their intelligence and fondness of stability and order...
rich writes:
Where do we get the things needed to create a new manufacturing base in North America? Well, you know, the Amero. Mexico and Canada.
Yep, if we are talking string theory of reality, this string is the one i see myself in.
I will be able to buy Canadian made tea kettles again...but then, i will only need one, for the balance of life. I've been through three China made kettles, in the last 5 years.
I will enjoy my one Made In Canada tea kettle over the next 30 years, instead of burning thru 18 made in China...
dryfly(Excellent) writes:
The biggest reason I think it isn't the complete end of US prominence is that everyone else has as big or bigger problems. Another example of winning by default.
Two oceans, mad guns and a historic thesis of rule are pretty solid foundations. I know I would not want to come contend for the ownership of this land.
sneering nihilist / byz - Mandate of Heaven review in Q1 & 2.
C
The word for 2009 is going to be "maldistributed." The pain and the benefits are going to be historically uneven. Every time a governor or Federale says "we are all in this together" they will be taking their life in their hands. The productive class in California is already "on strike." The Jun-Nov state revenue numbers are dismal. Any attempt to squeeze more will be met with open defiance. The whole idea of bailouts is sticking in the American craw. A third of all homeowners are just waking up to the idea they are on the hook for other people's houses despite having no mortgage themselves. If there are going to be clawbacks it had damn well better not start with responsible people's equity or incomes.
sneering nihilist writes:
...maybe i'm overestimating their intelligence and fondness of stability and order...
Naahh, I suspect you just underestimate american desperation .
Rob Dawg:
"If there are going to be clawbacks it had damn well better not start with responsible people's equity or incomes."
How is TARP not a $700B clawback against our current and future taxes?
Yeah, a real big human monkey zoo dust up. We'll see who is right in "loving God" and eventually, who is LEFT to pick up the pieces...probably will be just a group of Swedish lesbian blonds...
one_timmy | 12.26.08 - 5:54 pm | #
suh-weet!!
Dryfly,
Thanks. You put it better than I did. I agree that the US (and the ROW) will be very different 5 years from now -- but some folks keep predicting a "Mad-Max" future. We're not going there.
Anon -- on decoupling: been hearing the "world will decouple" every time there is a business downturn for 30 years. Don't know why this downturn will cause it to happen when 73-74, 80-82, 84, 90-92, and 2001-2002 didn't.
j marston writes:
Rob Dawg: "If there are going to be clawbacks it had damn well better not start with responsible people's equity or incomes."
How is TARP not a $700B clawback against our current and future taxes?
Exactly. "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve." - Yamamoto.
sneering nihilist / byz - Mandate of Heaven review in Q1 & 2.
C
Counterpointer | 12.26.08 - 6:20 pm |
are you serious? link?
dosen't the chinese state have some options here?
Well, here's the thing -- the crisis is an institutional one.
Typically, you can't make good decisions and you can't stop spending money.
The money part either did or will go on to the point where you are having problems raising funds to fund ongoing operations.
Also, your administrative / executive function is generally so captive to vested interests it is either a vehicle / battleground for them or at least shares their framing of the current events narrative.
Somebody made the bad decisions that got you to where you are at -- infrequent and limited power rotation, narrow and tall wealth pyramid, state heavily identified with private interests in the economy or polity, erratic administration.
maybe they could stimulate domestic growth with their sovereign wealth fund?
They could do a lot of things. They will do a lot of things. Spending x dollars does not lead to y salutary effects.
i can imagine a rapid reorganization of what type of political goods are provided, as well as method of delivery. for instance, more "security" and less health care. maybe i'm overestimating their intelligence and fondness of stability and order...
It's an institutional crisis.
The US has done a lot of things since the beginning of the Bush administration, hasn't it? Spent a lot of money, imposed a lot more tyranny-cum-security.
How'd that work out?
Gotta get out of the crisis with the same institution whose inability to perform got you into the crisis.
So you wanna keep the plutocracy, rule of the uberwealthy?
one_timmy | 12.26.08 - 6:16 pm | #
Doesn't matter what I want to keep - it's what's gonna happen that matters. I think there are going to be big changes but for the most part the past winners continue to win and th elosers continue to lose. The rest of us fall somewhere in between - skewed heavily by numbers to the 'L' side of the spectrum. I see nothing changing that in th enear term [my & my kids lifetimes].
but some folks keep predicting a "Mad-Max" future. We're not going there.
Ed S. | 12.26.08 - 6:30 pm | #
Mad Max was always too easy a call - the future will be weirder than we can imagine right now - it always is. Not all better not all worse just weird & difficult. But for most folks 'now' is difficult even if they are accustomed to it [no longer weird]. The future will be the same only different [if you grew up in S Minnesota like me - you heard that before - makes perfect sense now].
I think there are going to be big changes but for the most part the past winners continue to win and th elosers continue to lose.
Mildly disagree. We've seen some early examples of rough justice. Think Madoff, the dissolution of the IBs, auto manufacturer stockholders, etc.
There's gonna be more of that. I think the insurers are next and I don't think the tarp is gonna cover them. Insurance companies are little old lady stocks and dare I say it? Buffet. Sacred cows are the new hamburger.
Following up on Comrade_Bizantyne_Ruins' post, in exacting acquiescence and governance, there is one thing the state's supply capacity is nearly infinite: TERROR.
e.g.,
Homeland Security forecasts 5-year terror threats
The article requested is no longer available.
It is worth to remember that the late British Foreign Minister, Robin Cook, said that 'Al Qaeda' simply does not, and has never existed. Thank you, Chertoff, for turning the homeland into the West Bank.
Mad Max, although not entirely out of the question, isn't very likely. A major change in the political landscape is in the wind, though, and the process of getting there won't be entirely peaceful. Not a change in the basic structure of our government, mind you, but a big difference in the way it's actually conducted.
I don't consider it so much a revolution as much as getting back to basics; IOW, my "national bankruptcy" premise. If we really clean house and get our priorities straight the USA can remain on top for the foreseeable future.
And, frankly, I don't like the alternatives.
p.s.: For the moment, though, the occupants of DC will continue to actively deny and/or delay the inevita
dryfly writes: - 'L' side of the spectrum. I see nothing changing that in th enear term [my & my kids lifetimes].
Wow, that was a powerful statement...
I have the similar view, and i think the real worry is a transition to a state of personal freedoms loss... i just don't think this crowd will be able to shed the skin of over-consumption and move into a new economic order of productive works. But, it must happen...kicking and screaming all the way, or by iron fisted rule...one why or the other lifestyles are in for a huge adjustment. I would hate to be living in the UK right now. They are going to go down hard...very hard.
I think there are going to be big changes but for the most part the past winners continue to win and th elosers continue to lose.
I'd also disagree. In many ways the rich have been even more insulated from real world considerations than j6p, and many are unlikely to have made even moderate provisions for surviving a "new world order".
Rob Dawg @ 6:24.
Hear! Hear!
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins
i feel like i'm being cornered here. that usually means that i'm blinding myself to some glaringly obvious solution. i'm also getting the feeling that you think that this crisis we've been talking about will end badly. i'd really like to know what you think is going to happen in china.
Werner:
Schadenfreund is Deutsch, after all. Enjoy. Every dog has its day.
Counterpointer(Excellent) writes:
sneering nihilist / byz - Mandate of Heaven review in Q1 & 2.
This is an interesting situation and one I think about a lot.
I think Katrina was an IMMENSE blow to the national psyche.
I think the TARP was an equal blow to a different part of the polity's faith in the system.
There is no question the Mandate is exposed to withdrawal, but it isn't gone yet.
There will have to be another crisis for it to be withdrawn, but I think it really is that close.
I think Obama has a lot resting on his shoulders. I will be very interested in seeing how his first few months play out, and what happens internationally in the topsy-turvy do-as-you-please twilight of the mad emperor's rule.
No Friday night bank failures over the holidays
right ?
sneering nihilist - I can't link you to my I Ching throws. But they ARE. It WILL.
Byz has a good substantive case if that's more to your liking. There's a model looking for a rationale right about now.
C
This won't end smoothly. That's the ultimate conflict. Comfortable people want to remain comfortable but it turns out their comfort is the problem. The "smoothest" transition in modern history is/was South Africa and that was good for what? A decade? No thanks. Better we rip the bandaid off and let sunlight and a fresh breeze do their work.
WSJ: Pakistan Moves Troops As Ties Fray With India - WSJ.com
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Pakistan began moving thousands of troops to the Indian border Friday, intelligence officials said, sharply raising tensions triggered by the Mumbai terror attacks.
... Both countries have said they want to avoid military conflict over the attacks. But India has not ruled out the use of force as it presses its neighbor to crack down on the Pakistani-based terrorist group it blames for the attack.
Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has promised to respond aggressively if attacked but reassured India on Friday that Pakistan would not strike first. "We will not take any action on our own," Mr. Gilani told reporters. "There will be no aggression from our side."
thankyou for rescuing this thread, you know who you are. I had never heard "Mandate of Heaven" with the caps b4. sort of describes what i have been feeling in my guts but couldnt describe. same but different indeed
sneering nihilist(Unrated) writes:
i'm also getting the feeling that you think that this crisis we've been talking about will end badly. i'd really like to know what you think is going to happen in china.
Massive overcapacity-led depression in a society already undergoing agrarian collapse and providing the frailest of safety nets, and the state itself has a weak self-perception of identity and mission.
I think it will be interesting, and I think the Pearl River Delta and its regional environs will be a place of great notability, how's that?
Sacred cows are the new hamburger.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 6:40 pm | #
Quote of the day for me so far...
how's that?
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 7:03 pm |
not good.
unhappyCakeEater(Excellent) writes:
I had never heard "Mandate of Heaven" with the caps b4.
"Implicit consent of the governed" is the term in the western mode.
unhappyCakeEater writes:
thankyou for rescuing this thread, you know who you are. I had never heard "Mandate of Heaven" with the caps b4. sort of describes what i have been feeling in my guts but couldnt describe. same but different indeed
I sometimes get the feeling that some of the participants on CR are practicing LeGuin's Lathe of Heaven.
MrM,
As the Pakistani military evacuates from the tribal strongholds to reinforce the Indian frontier, wonder how that will play with the ongoing insurgent campaign to cut off the US/Nato supply lines...
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins: I think Katrina was an IMMENSE blow to the national psyche.
I just gave this idea of yours a quick thought-test by comparing a similar theoretical disaster in a Canadian port. Lets say for example that a tsunami hit Halifax harbour. Well, the whole country would pull together over night. The shores of Halifax within 24hrs would look like the evacuation Allied troops from Dunkirk...with just the fishing boats from NFLD sailing to assist the scene. The military would have arrived within 24hrs, and tons of supplies and evacuation assistance from just the regional civilian population would occur. If anything less than a complete countrywide gov resource effort to bail out the population from their disaster was not immediately mobilised, there would be paramount shame and National outcry - heads would roll instantly in the Government and it would be over-turned in short order.
Some Canadians might disagree, but that's what I think.
I think Obama has a lot resting on his shoulders.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 6:53 pm | #
That's an understatement.
Seems to me everything that needs to be done will run almost diametrically opposite to typical Democratic platforms. Should be interesting.
Kondratieff canuk, hope you never have to find out.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear)(Excellent) writes:
Seems to me everything that needs to be done will run almost diametrically opposite to typical Democratic platforms. Should be interesting.
I agree, I think he'll fall to an intuitive solution that turns out to compound the situation. Specifically I think he won't be able to restrain spending until there's a funding crisis.
But we'll see. It's a time of uncertain future so I merely observe what the loom of history brings to tomorrow.
Rob Dawg:
i always appreciate your reading recommendations- that one looks good!
i think a lot of people know something big is coming, like birds know a storm is coming- its just that the realization can't break thru that raft of goop on the surface of their minds
There's never been a better time to rescue a thread!
Bullish on thread rescues, short chaff!
C
Hey. This thread began with a cartoon. What's to rescue?
YouTube - Walking On Sunshine - Katrina & The Waves
Walking On Sunshine - Katrina & The Waves
And i'm hitting my lcd with a empty port bottle, and it works.
Specifically I think he won't be able to restrain spending until there's a funding crisis.
Comrade Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 7:17 pm | #
Yes, there appears to be little doubt about that given the plans for another $1T stimulus and his "deficits don't matter these next couple years" statements. In line with Rob's "rip the bandaid off" I'd like to see that funding crisis come along now. THAT would show what stuff Obama was really made of.
Dawg - call it the lathe of heaven if you like. I'm just your common or garden suburban game-theoretic practitioner.
Thread rescued. Need I say more.
C
Dawg - call it the lathe of heaven if you like. I'm just your common or garden suburban game-theoretic practitioner.
Thread rescued. Need I say more.
Counterpointer
Being There?
The 3rd house north of me is foreclosed and vacant, see-thru house.
The neighbor to the south - a really friendly and amzingly hard-working man od Indian origin - moved in in Nov 2006. He just informed me his mortgage payment had just jumped 36% - an impossible level - he's letting it go if he doesn't get it modified (and we all know how easy those loan mods are, 'coz Sheila told us so).
Nice, established neighborhood, built up in the 50s (and 60s?).
Being Here, just across the border in MoCo.
Ben Rand is my neighbor.
C
"In a garden, growth has its season...as long as the roots are not severed, all is well, and all will be well in the garden."
citizen energyecon writes:
"In a garden, growth has its season...as long as the roots are not severed, all is well, and all will be well in the garden."
A fellow traveller.
I think Katrina was an IMMENSE blow to the national psyche.
To those decent sectors of the national psyche, it was.
For others, it just confirmed the base belief that opportunity knocks. Disaster capitalism is still dining out on Katrina, a little bon bon after the delicious meal of Iraq.
energyecon / dawg
Some thread music, I think the Byrds would be good right about now:
YouTube - Turn! Turn! Turn! (to Everything There Is A Season)
C
Breaking news: In a new Treasury plan to boost the economy, Paulson and Kashkari are grinding roots to use as fertilizer for the now-rootless plants. Extraordinary growth expected.
Agree w/Comrade Bear that "everything that needs to be done" will be counterintuitive to Dem platforms.
This, to my thinking, gives Obama a chance: he will have to summon something more dramatic than the safe neoliberal rubbish his Wall St. owners had counted on.
Seems to me everything that needs to be done will run almost diametrically opposite to typical Democratic platforms. Should be interesting.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 12.26.08 - 7:11 pm | #
Spend, spend and spend more? Central plank.
j marston - as long as it's kava roots I'm all for that.
Three-day Tanna kava. Now that's paralysis we can believe in.
C
"In a garden, growth has its season...as long as the roots are not severed, all is well, and all will be well in the garden."
Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening
Whose woods these are I think I know.
His house is in the village though;
He will not see me stopping here
To watch his woods fill up with snow.
My little horse must think it queer
To stop without a farmhouse near
Between the woods and frozen lake
The darkest evening of the year.
He gives his harness bells a shake
To ask if there is some mistake.
The only other sound's the sweep
Of easy wind and downy flake.
The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
Robert Frost
Counterpointer:
As Rob Dawg would say, fellow traveller.
Ah, but the "spend spend spend" was to have been on more WMDs and grease for exurban expansion.
Now we'll need somewhat more imaginative life support.
I don't view the U.S.' position in as benign a way as most do here. From my experience, the U.S. is the country most prone to violence in the developed world. With huge arsenals of weaponry in private hands and aggression between population groups at heightened levels, I am not so confident that it will play out peacefully. Add much higher crime levels and tensions are bound to overflow. With States and counties in dire straits and therefore very little ability to even support decent law enforcement, it is bound to get interesting.
Note that these headlines were from July, things are much worse now.
Broke Oregon Counties Mull Worst-Case Scenarios
Oregon County Faces Impending Doom
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
...THAT would show what stuff Obama was really made of...
You could have observed in multiple Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings! Nothing messianic there (but also not as dumb as Hillary)!
He came across as just an ordinary "junior" Senator with the ordinary "run of the mill" type questions.
And have you heared any political program of his other than "change" ?
That will mean California won't be attacking Iran or Kansas won't be bringing "democracy" to Venezuela or Chile. Big bad army bye bye.
Sane and desirable. Meaning: I'll enjoy it in my dreams.
Countdown to Obama's first war...
America 2018 Cartoon
Seattle Post-Intelligencer: David Horsey
I think Katrina was an IMMENSE blow to the national psyche.
I have to wonder what Gustav did our energy psyche. Just 3 months ago you COULD NOT FIND gasoline in Georgia and the Carolinas, and it was rationed for another month.
Yes, we have cheap gas again but the Colonial Pipeline infrastructure and refinery locations are the same.
When you a raiding the lawn mower for gas to drive to the store, you think more seriously about the "veneer of civilization" and how close to breakdown we could come.
Your Depression dietary advisory, better live by the coast, roast fish and cornbread coming:
YouTube - Lee Perry roast fish & corn bread
Dreadnought un peanut, yeah...
C
RE:
I like your analysis. Here in PDX, this is our expectation, too.
Along the lines of foreign adventures and the Mandate of Heaven, one set of concerns run much closer to home: a borderline failed state on our southern border, and Chavez's "easy out" for a restive population a war with Colombia...just sayin'
What dryfly said upthread, things will be weirder than we expect...
W/r/t Chavez, the wisest thing Obama could do is get down with the Bolivarian.
The stupidest -- and therefore the course to be expected from Washington -- is more demonization leading to war.
Countdown to Obama's first war...
That Barton Fink Feeling
You ain't a real modern US Prez until you botch a war.
I cannot think of a less desirable time to take the wheel of the ship of state.
Barry has no choice. He must withdraw slowly from the 'Stan and the 'Raq. I don't even want to hear any good/bad stuff. The next President is constrained by events not morality.
The rest of the US needs to keep a careful eye on Kalifornia. What 17% of your economy can you afford to lose?
citizen energyecon,
A Venezuela attack on Colombia would result in a rude surprise for Senor Chavez. I think the cartels are well armed and have experienced foot soldiers. The cartels might stand aside for a while to see if Chavez could achieve victory over the Colombian government, and then move in to destroy the Venezuelan forces.
Somehow, I visualize Werner as wearing a spiked helmet and monocle as he puffs on his cigarette between thumb and index finger...
Homedad43 | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 5:28 pm | #
Careful, HD. He might head-but you.
Off to walk the dog (or more like it, vice versa). Happy holidays to CR and the posters, from whom I learned so much this year.
All we can hope for now is that the banks somehow keep the 'sucker' or 'dimwit' consumers in their bubble priced, ponzi scheme, 'securitized' crap homes and have to pay at least twice what the deflated 'assets' are really worth with the bubble premium that banks demand in the bubble refis & mods.
Roo ot for the banks completing this ponzi and taking the profits from it and not get stuck with their bubble losses.
Homedad asks Byz: "So, do the bosses read CR as well so that they know that it's YOU who's posting on company time?"
It is my worst nightmare-- boss reading CR. If I had the power, I'd feed him a 24/7 diet of Kudlow.
Just kinda kidding.
I agree with Rob Dawg regarding Iraq and Afghanistan. Our supply lines are being cut and we should leave Iraq to its citizens. It's time for a complete rethink of US military and foreign policy.
In other words, the only hope is that this grand RE/CRE bubble/credit bust ponzi works.
Cartoon: Bush Legacy
Seattle Post-Intelligencer: David Horsey
Anonymous writes:
Rejoice! Someone has come up with a new way to spend income your unborn grandchildren haven't yet earned!
Unborn grandchildren will move away and come back when it is a-ok! That's the plan.
Anonymous | 12.26.08 - 3:49 pm | #
Sort of like Wall·E, only with piles of debt instead of piles of trash?
Obama won't need to do a thing - some current analysis pegs the oil price that balances Venezuela's plans as they currently stand at $97/barrel - somebody somewhere isn't going to get the goods they thought they were...
The Bolivaran was turned back by the electorate in his last attempt to rewrite the constitution to allow an essentially open ended Chavez presidency a year ago, and in the last month lost the areas with the largest population centers (Caracas, Maracaibo and I forget the third - Carabobo?) in municipal elections.
Chavez's legitimacy continues to erode, and in the low price environment for oil it is difficult to see how he can continue to deliver basic political goods when inflation is running rampant, and price controls have resulted in real scarcity of many staples. I am not advocating a course of action with respect to Chavez, but rather observing that ginning up an external conflict is a timeworn approach to redirecting internal dissatisfaction with a regime.
If 'we' get out of the Middle East, where are the war profits from the so-called 'war on terrorism' going to be made? Depressions bring the need for jobs at munitions factories apparently if history is our guide.
War is now part of our ponzi economy especially if profits can't be taken from the bubble scam.
Anak - welcome back - seems like HK has been missing in this engagement. I've been joking around that the Hang Seng should be renamed the Tan King, as it seems seriously headed down.
But for the wider board, let's remember that Babylon has long been an evil to be fought however one may, includin tru wicked dub (sorry, can't help it, from me time w' de Bajans):
YouTube - Beat Down Babylon - Junior Byles
C
"When you a raiding the lawn mower for gas to drive to the store, you think more seriously about the "veneer of civilization" and how close to breakdown we could come."
Question for the group (with the disclaimer that since we don't drive much, hugely expensive gas in the short-term is somewhat acceptable to us...):
In GA we had gas stations that simply ran out of gas, causing us to have to stalk stations that might have received a refill. After the supplies started flowing again, I mentioned to my FIL that I thought pure free-market principles should dictate that at least some stations would continue to raise prices higher and higher as supplies dwindled, so that there would ultimately be that one last gallon that no one could afford. His response was that, as a small business owner, he thought that no gas station owner would want the reputation as "the guy that price-gouged in a shortage." His theory was that after the shortage was resolved, the bad reputation would linger...
What do you all think? Let prices rise to a market-clearing price or let your pumps run out and resist accusations of price-gouging?
energyecon,
wonder how that will play with the ongoing insurgent campaign to cut off the US/Nato supply lines
I think the Pakistanis are doing this to force US mediation.
Anonymous writes:
I think the Pakistanis are doing this to force US mediation.
Or because the Pakistani army cannot afford to look weak. Besides, the Pakistani army might want to make sure the popular attention is not focused on the disastrous state of the Pakistani economy.
I am afraid that the Indian government might feel it cannot afford to look weak either.
The FDIC will insure your pony up to 250,000 ponies until 2020. It is a good time to remind Americans that no pony owners have ever lost a pony penny on their insured ponies. Now is the best time to buy your pony today.
Byzantine ruins,you were describing California as well as China.I am happy to report that Terminous Ca appears to be untouched by the Housing Bubble ...The only place in the state to have escaped as far as I can tell.
C, heads not in HK at the moment. I got back from Godzone just before X'mas. Basically just to see some friends in N. island. Golly gee, they've got the Anglo American disorder in spades. Same debt crazed run up in housing prices, same constrained income generating opportunities. Rates still high and a weaker Kiwi might entice outside money to the rescue, but Japanese housewifes won't be it.
Know you've got some connections there. Hope they're well and unlevered. Any take from your side?
Basically it looks like sellers must hit any bid that surfaces.
I've got a better outfit for NYE!
.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 4:38 pm | #
Babies R Us has diapers that read, "this diaper makes my butt look fat..."
I mentioned to my FIL that I thought pure free-market principles should dictate that at least some stations would continue to raise prices higher and higher as supplies dwindled, so that there would ultimately be that one last gallon that no one could afford. His response was that, as a small business owner, he thought that no gas station owner would want the reputation as "the guy that price-gouged in a shortage." His theory was that after the shortage was resolved, the bad reputation would linger...
j marston | 12.26.08 - 8:32 pm | #
Your FIL is probably right, but I believe that GA has some serious anti-price gouging laws. A small business owner cannot afford the bad reputation, the subsequent legal costs, and the possibility of jail time. Also, if his station has a big company's name on the sign, they would cut him off.
I am afraid that the Indian government might feel it cannot afford to look weak either.
MrM | 12.26.08 - 8:44 pm | #
I fear an almost inevitable decay into conflict, where the pursuit of domestic political objectives drives the two sides into a conflict that neither actively desires...
In North Carolina the state AG was talking down prices by saying he'd be on the watch for "gouging" - so nobody was willing to sell for over $4 a gallon. It was a concocted crisis - yet it still was a hardhsip for people.
Yes, I stalked my local station too. Set my alarm at 4 in the morning hoping to hit it right after a shipment. I won't forget that things like that CAN happen in the good 'ol first world USA.
j marston - I go with Hakim Bey's line that "the thin skin of recorded civilization overlays the deep sea of the paleothithic"...
Try this, for some mind-stretching:
The Temporary Autonomous Zone
Hooyeah.
C
I still think there is a power struggle going on in Pakistan. Perhaps a 3 way one. Current gov v. (x) v. Muslim hardcore. (x) is playing with the hardcore side for support, and going to get burned doing it.
After visually checking the neighborhood trash for the usual bags of wrapping paper and discarded boxes. Including other neighborhoods my conclusion is nobody bought much this year in my tiny little corner of the world.
Also I think Borders Bookstores will join Sears soon...
@ Mozo Maz:
$4 a gallon? We were stopped out at $3.99 (regular -- no premium available) until the pumps ran dry.
@ NorkaWest:
I agree with your analysis; the FIL professes to be a hardcore "freemarket" guy so I was really just trying to tweak him on the scope and depth of his beliefs.
Unfortunately I was convinced to go to Tysons Corner Mall. We spent 1.52 hours trying to leave the parking garage. Based on what I saw, and heard, violence is never far away in urban America.
New years predictions?
We are on the heels of a cautious volatile year, though exciting, but mostly unsteady. The stars are warning of numerous crisis, collapses and social downfalls. The position of Saturn, Uranus and Pluto is disturbing Calm and control are the only answer this year
We ought to make use of this year to reconsider our situation and reassess the past in order to hold on to whats meaningful and precious in our life and build upon our dreams and aspirations
Alsumaria TV Iraq | Events Iraq | Jacqueline Akiki 2009 predictions
2009? Ugly, but predictions of the demise of the US turn out to be as wrong as decoupling and subprime containment.
That would be grand, Meals On Wheels Association of America
"And only one thing can come from a big military........"
Yeah, a real big human monkey zoo dust up. We'll see who is right in "loving God" and eventually, who is LEFT to pick up the pieces...probably will be just a group of Swedish lesbian blonds...
I think Micron in Boise will also close down. I know a couple people who have been transfered to their plant in Utah and these people are the real workers there, it's just a matter of time ...
Market analyst keeps eye on stars, economy
Business astrologer watches skies for trends and offers forecasts to give clients an edge.
Detnews.com | This article is no longer available online | detnews.com | The Detroit News
What happened? According to Merriman, Saturn and Uranus entered an orb of influence with one another. Saturn rules control, boundaries and tradition, and this collided with Uranus, a breakdown in status quo. When these planets align with Pluto, an economic disaster on the scale of the Great Depression is possible, he says. But it is just as possible that a great surge in creativity could occur, as these planets also aligned in the 15th century Renaissance.
If people fail to rally around a new leader and invest time and savings in growth-producing factors, he sees a crash severe enough to put 80 to 90 percent of today's businesses out of existence.
How long will the recession last? In the worst scenario, economic woes could linger through 2019, he says. Best case, with hope and cooperation, the recession could be over in 18 months.
"Whatever occurs this is a very sobering time that challenges the soundness and resilience of our basic human character," Merriman said.
...They needed to move deeper into advanced materials & such - didn't get there in time. - dryfly
Let's be honest, they couldn't steal it fast enough. I think even Walmart in the last few years may have finally wised up and realized the folly of asymmetrical technology transfer. If the US had been being compensated for just the theft of intellectual property there wouldn't be a negative balance of payments issue.
It's also why we just don't need as many manufacturing or agricultural workers. We are there already in plenty of time.
Homedad43 writes:
Somehow, I visualize Werner as wearing a spiked helmet and monocle as he puffs on his cigarette between thumb and index finger...
Hihi. Well, but the name is actually correct.
CONJURE THOUGHTS
Conjure is thinking real PCE for Q4 may print at only -1.1% (annual rate) due to rapidly falling prices in December.
"The CFR set, Obama included, know very well that the USA and China act in concert.
Is this really true? Is there a secret economic war room somewhere, even a notional one, in which a Chinese and US policy elite makes plans and issues orders? Somehow, this lacks plausibility.
Conjure. Annualized or just for Q4? (I'm in the latter camp.)
2009? Ugly, but predictions of the demise of the US turn out to be as wrong as decoupling and subprime containment.
Ed S.
As I've been telling people for the last 12-18 months, de-coupling occurs post global recession.
Yet another off-topic:
This morning's WSJ gave me the impression the restructuring of GMAC still depended on the consent of enough bondholders, with a much-delayed vote to conclude today. Any update on that?
@ Broward Horne:
See, the thing is, I used to come here for Dryfly, Rich, LawyerLiz, CSC (we miss him!) and others (Bondgirl, Gary, etc.), but this "me in leather" shit and your willingness to put it all out there, as it were... you are heading to number 1 with a bullet.
Okay with me if you stop before you reach the top.
No, Byz, the point is you should do the moral thing and get out so the rightful owners can come back.
"We'll see who is right in "loving God""
We're not automatons. We are given freedom. We have choices.
BATTLES IN THE HILLS
All quiet on a Christmas afternoon,
Two thousand eight years in procession later,
Now a night of mirrors on the moon,
Reflections of apocalypse and slaughter
Cold mirages rising from a road,
Winter coming, battles in the hills;
Ezekiel and Jeremiah show
That prophecies of action are fulfilled
Herald angels looked beneath and saw
Christ Messiah infant on the Earth,
Son of God, fulfillment of the Law,
Deathless one submitting to a birth
They saw below that Herod was a fool
Though clever to defend his perquisites,
His progeny as stupid and as cruel,
Gifted self-sufficient idiots
They saw the common tragedy of lust,
Eros of the miser and the swine,
The ever-hungry appetite for dust:
Mine is mine, and yours is also mine
They saw the Crucifixion and the war
That would destroy the Temple of the Lord,
The heavy weight of blood that Jesus bore:
Peter stay awake, let go the sword
\t\t\t\tPavel
\t\t\t\tDecember 26, 2008
2009? Ugly, but predictions of the demise of the US turn out to be as wrong as decoupling and subprime containment.
Ed S. | 12.26.08 - 5:53 pm | #
I tend to agree but the rough patch is going to be plenty rough and in the end we'll be a very different country. Not all of the 'different' will be better either.
The biggest reason I think it isn't the complete end of US prominence is that everyone else has as big or bigger problems. Another example of winning by default.
There's a zip code in LA County with a median single-family home price of $62,000, a decline of only 81% since November 2007.
Errr... did I somehow land on some other board?
@RobDawg
Q4
Let's be honest, they couldn't steal it fast enough.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.26.08 - 5:57 pm | #
Exactly. They ran out of game.
Conjure is thinking real PCE for Q4 may print at only -1.1% (annual rate) due to rapidly falling prices in December.
\t mp | \t \t \t \t12.26.08 - 5:58 pm | #
I agree - prices are falling faster than suppliers can cut them [on each other - to keep their market share].
mp writes: Conjure is thinking real PCE for Q4 may print at only -1.1% (annual rate) due to rapidly falling prices in December.
mp, is Conjure saying that the GDP deflator will become GDP inflator?