I know a couple with this problem - no one wants the house. - CR
I know a divorcing couple who have FIVE [four income properties & a residence] and a small farm - all but the farm is underwater and the aggregate is also negative [the positive equity in the farm doesn't cover the negative equity on the homes]... moneys flinging poo at the zoo look civilized in comparison to this break up.
moneys flinging poo at the zoo look civilized in comparison to this break up. dryfly | 12.30.08 - 11:42 am | #
Should have read... MONKEYS at the zoo flinging poo... quite the Freudian slip that was. dryfly | 12.30.08 - 11:43 am | # No, there were lawyers involved. You were right the first time.
Once the no-house divorcee realizes s/he needs 20% down, a credit score in the 4 figs, a freshly-sacrificed first-born child, a set of boobs, nice legs, and a willingness to take somebody else's foreclosure in order to get a new casa, he or she may actually want the original house to afterall....
Re: Consumer confidence hit an all-time low in December, dropping unexpectedly in the face of layoffs and deteriorating markets for housing, stocks and other investments.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 38 in December from a revised 44.7 in November. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected the index to rise incrementally to 45.
WTF, they (economist retards) thought confidence levels would go up, because of.... uh, maybe TARP bailouts, or bad XMAS revenues, the crashing economy, etc....
State and municipal imbalances and deficits mushroom. The municipal bond market seizes up in the face of poor fiscal management, revenue shortfalls and rising budgets at state and local levels. Municipal bond yields spike higher. A new Municipal TARP totaling $2 trillion is introduced in the year's second half.
Re: "Were finding the husband on one floor, the wife on the other, Ms. Decker said. Now one is coming home with a new boyfriend or girlfriend, and its creating a layer to relationships that we havent seen before. "
We've only seen the tip of the iceberg on strange living arrangements that will be cropping up. I absolutely believe on the big trends will be regular-sized houses (not even McMansions, necessarily) with two full unrelated families stuffed inside. It will be interesting how local municipalities will react to this, if it violates zoning ordinances.
"...in front of the home she and her husband once shared in Alpharetta, Ga."
I'm heading down to city hall this afternoon to see what we can do to get some better press. Alpharetta has more to offer than just starter castles (that no one can sell) and failing banks.
Okay, not really; but I have to live here, so try to be nice.
Mr. Market must like the extra cash for GMAC or the record price drop in homes, or the confidence level of tinged toilet water, or the building in of the depressing unemployment figures coming out tomorrow. Whew! Thank goodness everything is all better now.
Good news from Philadelphia. What else can we privatize?
Dec. 30 -- Mayor Nutter said yesterday that five of the 11 library branches once scheduled to close permanently on Thursday are instead on track to be taken over by private foundations, wealthy individuals, companies, and community development corporations.
\tIt was not immediately clear which branches have sponsors and the mayor did not identify the benefactors.
\tBut Nutter expressed confidence that in time private operators could convert each of the branches now on his budget chopping block into community knowledge centers that would offer similar or perhaps even superior services to those now available. Though the services would vary from branch to branch, Nutter said the centers would likely retain book collections, computers, and perhaps even trained librarians.
Okay, not really; but I have to live here, so try to be nice. j marston | 12.30.08 - 12:11 pm | # City slogan suggestion: "Alpharetta, at least we ain't Peachtree."
That's Ballgame Comrades said: "...It will be interesting how local municipalities will react to this, if it violates zoning ordinances."
Forget the city ordinances, it will get truly ugly if they're in violation of homeowners' association covenants. The parking violations alone, from having too many cars parked on the street...))
I should have posted this question in the GMAC thread, but walked out of it once the Palestinian-Israel debate got going.
Here's my question: doesn't this structure of the bailout (funds to GMAC to enable them to lend more heartily) simply perpetuate the untenable state of affairs where the majority of people's incomes are stagnating or declining while the "financial system" tries to entice them to borrow more? How long can we expect the gasoline windfall to last? Don't people need higher incomes, rather than more debt?
Sebastian is right. Don't fear the mortgage holder, don't fear the tax man, fear the Homeowner's Association. With some of the bubblezones entering year three we can soon expect HOAs pushing the foreclosure for dues and fines. Remember in most places HOAs are second only to property taxes (and tax liens) in line for being made whole. Mortgage product holders beware.
Though I suppose you'll see the most draconion homeowners associations and gated communities become their own little fiefdoms that are the last bastions of "The Way Things Used To Be" ... Until the villages with torches over-run them.
Investment advisor Carl Spielvogel and his wife Barbaralee Diamonstein-Spielvogel sold their cooperative apartment at 720 Park Avenue, at the corner of 70th Street, for $36.63 million, nearly twice what they paid for it two years ago.
If ever there was a great name for a whore, it is Barbaralee Diamonstei
Question about the national debt ceiling. Are all of the bailouts being counted as national debt? If there's a prospect of a return, is the full amount of a bailout counted against the national debt? I'm wondering if some of the bailouts are being structured in such a way that Congress doesn't have to keep raising the debt ceiling. Like when they come from the Fed rather than Treasury, or when there's a projected return or future sale.
Think of all those poorly drafted pre-nups!. "Shoulda, woulda, coulda ..." Where is the prescient matrimonial attorney who read this blog and drafted accordingly?
On the muni freeze, the very, very odd thing is that my Cali Short term muni bond funds continue to move positively for last two weeks:
When the HOA forcloses on their homes; how do they get the dues? Are they going to re-sell these homes to collect dues; and then continue to collect dues from the new homeowner?
Will they offer deals like, "No HOA dues for 5 years"? What if the HOAs can't sell their homes? Will they disband? Why does it seem to me like the government buying troubled assets? Are they going to HELOCs the homes get cash for the association dues?
On MSNBC, they interviewed a business reporter from US News & World Report. He says, the fact that economists are so gloomy may be good news, because they are so often wrong. Maybe things aren't that bad!
"It will be interesting how local municipalities will react to this, if it violates zoning ordinances."
I know our Town Board doesn't want to TOUCH this item. It was brought up "off-camera" once in regards to a number of Mexicans living in a particular home, and all Hell broke loose just discussing the particulars: #s per bedroom, #s per bathroom, family group limitations, non-familial limitations, home resident certifications, it was part of the "English Only" town law discussion that made this place a laughing-stock amongst "civilized societies" a while back.
My brother's divorce left him stuck with a "dead cow" of a house, in Denver. He's going to try and sell it in the Spring. He knows it's a horrible time to sell, but he doesn't have much choice at this point.
Getting OT, but anyone care to chat about TBT and timing? It seems that the crowd see's a treasury bubble yet few are actually wading in. I am concerned that treasuries are usually in higher demand as we end the year, for making the books look nicer. Is there not a chance that there is slight sell pressure, or maybe only just no rolling into new maturities as old ones come due, as we cross into 2009. That, and all the usual factors, may not it be the slight push we need to tip the scale?
Here's my question: doesn't this structure of the bailout (funds to GMAC to enable them to lend more heartily) simply perpetuate the untenable state of affairs where the majority of people's incomes are stagnating or declining while the "financial system" tries to entice them to borrow more? How long can we expect the gasoline windfall to last? Don't people need higher incomes, rather than more debt?
Three questions, three answers.
Yes.
Not long.
No, they need self-discipline to live within means.
vestment advisor Carl Spielvogel and his wife Barbaralee Diamonstein-Spielvogel sold their cooperative apartment at 720 Park Avenue, at the corner of 70th Street, for $36.63 million, nearly twice what they paid for it two years ago.
The sale of the seventh-floor unit closed December 18, according to property records posted Friday.
The buyer was identified as Jill Kraus, wife of Peter Kraus, a former executive vice president at Merrill Lynch who reportedly received a $25 million bonus after working at the firm for three months this year. However, only her name was listed on the property report. He was hired as chairman and CEO of AllianceBernstein on December 19. A Merrill Lynch spokeswoman would not comment on his pay package.
The sellers, who are top Democratic fundraisers, bought the apartment in June 2006 for $20 million, property records show. Earlier reports of the sale estimated the price tag at $37 million.
When the HOA forcloses on their homes; how do they get the dues? Are they going to re-sell these homes to collect dues; and then continue to collect dues from the new homeowner? YLSP | 12.30.08 - 12:24 pm | #
Yeah, but three years of back dues and presumably liability for back taxes we are still talking low tens of thousands for some pretty expensive houses. They can sell for 10¢ on the dollar and still come out whole. Quite the scam if structured right.
Black Star Ranch, I'm not writing about Mexicans, though. ... I think you're going to see unrelated white, middle-class and (gasp) formerly upper-middle-class families banding together in big houses in the suburbs, trying to ride this thing out. Trying to pool their incomes and just have one mortgage to tackle, so they can stay under a roof in a neighborhood that is still at least somewhat desirable and definitely less scary than "finding an apartment in the city"
Tarp Teats writes:
"Getting OT, but anyone care to chat about TBT and timing?"
What keeps me away from this thesis is the feeling you are betting against the "house". Can't Fed purchase as much as they want to keep yields where they want? Would appreciate hearing from others on this as well.
Now, former Goldmanite Peter Kraus is getting his $25 million bonus, according to people familiar with the situation, though he has been at Merrill only three months. Kraus left Merrill Friday, shortly after after his rich exit package was triggered by the Merrill sale. In a year when some bankers are being paid with junk, Krauss exit payment is a stunner that represents to about 0.1% of Bank of Americas $25 billion capital injection from the U.S. government.
Merrill Lynch noted that Kraus isnt an officer and his payments arent a matter of public record, and declined to comment further.
Certainly some HOAs will hold on til the bitter end. .... But many will not be able to survive the strain of foreclosures, vacant properties and even the financial well-being of the HOA families that are still in their homes but can't keep up with all the fees anymore.
Balgame -- I don't think they can be called "libraries" anymore if they go private -- nor "information centers", more appropriate will be "propaganda centers." You can be certain they can burn those books they don't approve of if they are private. I can't see how intelligent people would choose to use them.
WILMINGTON, Del. (AP) A federal bankruptcy judge has denied a request by Washington Mutual to keep details of certain asset sales secret. WaMu, which filed for Chapter 11 reorganization in September, wants to sell certain equity holdings and interests in venture capital funds to generate value for the company and its creditors. The Seattle-based thrift, the biggest bank to collapse in U.S. history, was later acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co. for $1.9 billion. Washington Mutual Co.s attorneys have sought permission to redact details of asset purchase prices from sale notices that would be sent to interested parties. WaMu attorney David Berz told Judge Mary Walrath on Tuesday that disclosing pricing details could hurt the value the company might receive and chill future transactions. Berz proposed pricing details be given only to WaMus creditors committee, bondholders and the U.S. trustee.
Black Star Ranch, I'm not writing about Mexicans, though. ... I think you're going to see unrelated white, middle-class and (gasp) formerly upper-middle-class families banding together in big houses in the suburbs, trying to ride this thing out. Trying to pool their incomes and just have one mortgage to tackle, so they can stay under a roof in a neighborhood that is still at least somewhat desirable and definitely less scary than "finding an apartment in the city" That's Ballgame Comrades | 12.30.08 - 12:29 pm | #
Saw it happen before (70s & 80s)... see it again I'm sure. All that was old will be new again.
The Russian mafia and Russian oligarchs are found to be large investors with Madoff. During the next few weeks, a well-known CNBC investigative reporter documents that the Russian oligarchs, certain members of the Russian mafia and several Colombian drug cartel families have invested and laundered more than $2 billion in Madoff's strategy through offshore master feeders and through several fund of funds. There are several unsuccessful attempts made on Madoff and/or his family's lives. With the large Russian investments in Madoff having gone sour and in light of the subsequent acts of violence against his family, U.S./Russian relations, which already were at a low point, are threatened. Madoff's lawyers disclose that he has cancer, and his trial is delayed indefinitely as he undergoes chemotherapy
Sorry to go all OT on ya, but may I take this opportunity to thank the regulars here for both the wit and the wisdom you have provided me over the last year and a half. Dryfly, when my eyes are glazing over, I refocus whenever I see your handle. Others icluding (but not limited to) Rob Dawg, FFDIC, Nemo, Lawyerliz, energyecon, Pavel, ac, Rich, Lefty, Broward, Cobra & CSC have been greatly entertaining and illuminating. Apologies to the many I have left out. Thank you CR for all your efforts, you are invaluable!
Tanta Vive!
Happy New Year!
Peace,
Matty
p.s. Special shoutout to fellow homestaters Crazyvermonter & Vermonttrader.
Thank you, Waffle Eater Jim! I basically agree with you about living within one's means - except that some cannot physically exist on minimum wage or near. For the rest, well, there are many ways to eliminate expenditures. I'd really like to see children's activities dialed down. Children's football is a completely idiotic concept. And it's too expensive a sport for school systems as well. That's only one example.
The RoW (petro/tigers recycling) will not play by the Fed's hoped for plan. Contrary to Ferguson's claim thsi weekend in FT that Chimerica will come together becasue it has too, it will not happen. The RoW would be well advised to throw up fences around its comapnies andput a moratroium on M&A (non-friendly) until the matter of the currency markets is settled. The US on the other hand should be sendiong defcon 5 alerts to its companies - note Berkshitre mention in FT today of $106B cash horde - to buy as much as possible while the dollar is worth somehting. For a picture of what it looks like to be put to sleep mildly pull up a chart of $ / yen since 1985. As long as the medicine is administered slowly, you don't even know you are dying. Slowly anesthetising the patient willalmost certainly meet a fateful end by an unforseen shock.
Wife was still throwing poo at me 12 years after the divorce and she got a house with lots of equity. I go relief only after they locked her away.
At the moment, I have guy in house who lost job and could not pay rent. So now he fixes up and takes care of house, 22 yo stepson lives at home because of no job, 22 yo son is moving in for same reason and I expect that step daughter and 'husband' will move in also.
You were wondering how those mac mansions were going to get used in the new economy, now you know-informal multi family dwellings.
I'm going through a divorce right now myself, though the house was mine before the marriage (and bubble). I'm very fortunate not to be underwater or buying her out.
Fuck the HOAs..petty tyrants, one and all...I lived under one once for about 8 years...quasi-government: all the cons, none of the pros.
This will break the back of the HOAs though...they are toothless contracts without money to pay for those attorneys. The one I suffered under was effectively de-fanged when it went broke. You think the holdouts are really going to cough up a bunch of special assessments to pay for the attorney's fees? They'll revolt after they get hit with one or two special assessments to make up the maintenance budget shortfalls.
Nearly all these HOAs have clauses in their 'constitutions' to allow for self-dissolution, which looks good the minute they become a liability, and not just a means of forcing your neighbor to paint his house a color you like.
You were wondering how those mac mansions were going to get used in the new economy, now you know-informal multi family dwellings. Vader | 12.30.08 - 12:48 pm | #
Vader remember when we first postulated that? Back on the UE/IT forum? And everyone thought we were nutz? Even gwb-is-our-master bought into the real estate only goes up meme - remember? Damn that seemed a long time ago but was only what - five or six years ago?
I wonder when the HOAs finally throw in the towel & let them be formally converted into 'multis'. Can't be too far off. Then comes the 'rehab' into apartments like the big urban Victorians in the 1950s & 60s. Shit never changes - just recycles.
Buybacks should be outlawed or put under a strict regulatory regime like a blind trust. Entrusting management to time the market is a sure fire loser. It would be interesting to take the S7P 500 tally up the buybacks over say the past 5 years and see how much money the collective geniuses have destroyed. TARP II
State and municipal imbalances and deficits mushroom. The municipal bond market seizes up in the face of poor fiscal management, revenue shortfalls and rising budgets at state and local levels. Municipal bond yields spike higher. A new Municipal TARP totaling $2 trillion is introduced in the year's second half."
Wow, that guy's an idiot. There is only $2.6 trillion of municipal debt outstanding. There is nowhere near that amount borrowed annually. Only a few hundred billion borrowed annually.
He deserves to get cleaned out in divorce. If that was all he had in mind he'd be better off 'buying the milk' and not the 'cow'. When men let their dicks think their wallets ALWAYS suffer.
You were wondering how those mac mansions were going to get used in the new economy, now you know-informal multi family dwellings.
Vader | 12.30.08 - 12:48 pm | #
they did something similar in the 50's in LA. Many homes were built or converted into duplexes. I ask why not?
...Trying to pool their incomes and just have one mortgage to tackle, so they can stay under a roof in a neighborhood that is still at least somewhat desirable and definitely less scary than "finding an apartment in the city"...
That's Ballgame Comrades
This would be an excellent topic for a Tom Tomorrow cartoon. R. Crumb would probably do it justice as well...
"This will break the back of the HOAs though...they are toothless contracts without money to pay for those attorneys."
The big problem I see with HOAs is that they have the power to make things very expensive for an owner who runs afoul of them. Nothing more awesome than paying dues that fund an attorney whose job it is to harass you and also needing to pay out of pocket for your own attorney to defend against the BS. I had an encounter with my HOA earlier this year about my DirecTV dish. It took 4 letters (including a final one on my firm's letterhead explaining in substantial detail how their position was completely at odds with every FCC OTARD decision ever published) before they admitted they were full of crap and left me alone. Annoying enough to have had to waste my own time dealing with the issue. Had I been forced to pay an attorney to figure the crap out for me, I would have likely given in. In my experience with several HOAs, that's been the SOP: send harassing letters, threaten fines (or legal action that will cause the homeowner to incur big fees), and generally act as though they are the law. My next home purchase decision will be strongly colored by a desire to avoid having to ever deal with an HOA again.
they did something similar in the 50's in LA. Many homes were built or converted into duplexes. I ask why not? Tim and the American Miracle | 12.30.08 - 1:00 pm | #
The new "modern" floorplans are singularly ill suited to multihousehold reconfiguration. The stickboxes are not durable and their operating costs are way out of line with any potential reuse. I can slap up purpose built multifamily for less than the cost of acquisition and conversion and face none of the wrath of the neighbors or zoning nazis.
The new "modern" floorplans are singularly ill suited to multihousehold reconfiguration. The stickboxes are not durable and their operating costs are way out of line with any potential reuse. I can slap up purpose built multifamily for less than the cost of acquisition and conversion and face none of the wrath of the neighbors or zoning nazis.
========
Agreed, but people will find a way, even if it's butt-ugly. We're good at adapting.
The big problem I see with HOAs is that they have the power to make things very expensive for an owner who runs afoul of them. Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 1:05 pm | #
ACP get's it - it's not that you can't win [the legal battle] it's that you can't win [come out with any value for trying]. Good point & worth noting. Thx.
Heck, my garage was conveted to an extra room/house. Added drywall and a window. One outlet. Tiled the floor. Instant Asian add-on. They lived there until we bought it.
Rob - didn't you used to have another name, one that was recently referenced by Dr. Krugman? comrade dope albrt | 12.30.08 - 1:06 pm | # I doubt Laureate Krugman knows I exist and surely he wouldn't care were I made known to him. That doesn't stop me frrom being extremely critical of his most recent policy suggestions for more spending and government intervention.
On the subject of buybacks (warning long, and hope table is readable)
From 2004 through the third quarter of 2007, corporate America enjoyed one of the most robust periods of profitability ever. This should have left them in very good shape financially when the downturn occurred. However, this has not been the case. Every time you open the paper it seems like there is another company on the ropes and potentially looking for a bailout. So where did all the money go? Well last week S&P came out with their quarterly tabulation of dividends and share buybacks for S&P 500 firms. Its clear all the money went back to the shareholders in either dividends or share repurchase. Given that dividends cause a taxable event in the year they are paid, but share repurchase payouts are not triggered until the stock is sold, buybacks do have the advantage. Other than that they are economically equivalent. They also prevent dilution from occurring due to lavish stock option awards to executives. Also it is common for executives to be benchmarked by compensation consultants on the basis of EPS growth and ROE. If you shrink the denominator the value goes up. Share buybacks shrink shares outstanding and, unless done at less than book value, also shrink shareholders equity per share.
The third quarter was the sixth straight quarter where cash returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks exceeded operating earnings. Since most extraordinary items are negative items (one time charge offs) operating earnings almost always exceed reported earnings. Thus, the payout on reported earnings is far above 100%. These write-offs, while not indicative of how the company fared during the quarter being reported upon, should not simply be dismissed. Generally they are the corporate worlds equivalent to Miss Emily Latella, Those earnings we reported last year or three years ago, well never mind. Thus over longer periods of time, the reported earnings are more realistic than the operating earnings, even if the operating earnings are a more accurate reflection of corporate health during any given reporting period.
Cash paid to shareholders, either in the form of a dividend check, or in the form of shrinking shares outstanding to help EPS grow, is not cash available to strengthen a balance sheet by paying down debt. It is cash that is not available to put into building new factories, or invest in new more efficient and productive machines. It is cash that is not available to put into R&D to develop new innovative products. Corporations have started to pull back from their share buyback programs (now that stock prices are about 40% off their highs). In the third quarter of 2008, companies shelled out 47.8% less to buy back their own stock than they did in the third quarter of 2007. Dividends were virtually unchanged from a year ago. That is another advantage of buybacks, it is easier to cut back on them quietly than it is to cut dividends. Still, in the third quarter buybacks alone exceeded reported earnings.
It is also noteworthy that two of the top ten firms in total cash spent on buybacks over the last four years were Goldman Sachs (GS) which spent a total of $26.5 billion and Bank of America (BAC) which spent a total of $25.5 billion. Both are still paying common dividends as well, (and billions in bonuses) even as the Federal government pours money in on extremely generous (a.k.a. giveaway) terms to help shore up their balance sheets. General Electric (GE) which recently got a Federal backstop on its debt was also on the list having spent $29.6 billion over the last four years. Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are not on the top ten list.
Table One
S&P 500 Total Earnings, Dividends and Share Buybacks
Qtr\tOp earn\trep earn\tdividends\tbuyback \tDiv + BB\tOp Earn PO\tReported
Earn PO
3Q08\t$142.90\t$86.16\t$61.44\t$89.71\t$151.15\t105.77%\t175.43%
2Q08\t$148.43\t$112.12\t$61.94\t$87.91\t$149.85\t100.96%\t133.65%
1Q08\t$144.63\t$135.24\t$61.72\t$113.90\t$175.62\t121.43%\t129.86%
4Q07\t$133.38\t$68.53\t$67.09\t$141.71\t$208.80\t156.55%\t304.68%
3Q07\t$184.13\t$133.66\t$61.21\t$171.95\t$233.16\t126.63%\t174.44%
2Q07\t$213.65\t$194.30\t$59.76\t$157.76\t$217.52\t101.81%\t111.95%
1Q07\t$200.23\t$190.75\t$58.53\t$117.70\t$176.23\t88.01%\t92.39%
4Q06\t$197.35\t$181.65\t$61.79\t$105.18\t$166.97\t84.61%\t91.92%
3Q06\t$207.22\t$193.19\t$55.07\t$109.81\t$164.88\t79.57%\t85.35%
Totals\t$1,571.92\t$1,295.60\t$548.55\t$1,095.63\t$1,644.18\t104.60%\t126.90%
This would be an excellent topic for a Tom Tomorrow cartoon. R. Crumb would probably do it justice as well...
Doc at the Radar Station | 12.30.08 - 1:05 pm | #
Hey Doc, I miss one of my favorite characters, Mr. White Man. Is he still around anywhere?
dryfly - do you really think they can convert a McMansion made of Tyvek and chicken wire the same way they converted the old victorians? - comrade dope albrt
The new "modern" floorplans are singularly ill suited to multihousehold reconfiguration. The stickboxes are not durable and their operating costs are way out of line with any potential reuse. I can slap up purpose built multifamily for less than the cost of acquisition and conversion and face none of the wrath of the neighbors or zoning nazis. - Dawg
I think Dawg is MOSTLY right... if you are going to try to give everyone in the unit a seperate apartment most Mini-McM's aren't easily chopable [but neither were the Victorians but their purchase price back then was so low the owners didn't mind 'chainsaw surgery' & it paid out off cash-flow-wise. If you've been in some you know - only the original shell remained]... But if the McM's really do go to near zero like Cobra Chris is suggesting is happening along the Florida west coast & I 4 Corridor - then 'yes' these can be chopped and will be. I can only imagine how ugly they will look and how short their remaining lifespan until bulldozed for real 'multifamily'... but not until after their 'intrinsic value' has been completely mined out.
And another Hollyweird type who lost big was the guy who wrote Forrest Gump, etc. It seems somehow right that people who live from doing next to nothing, like actors, should take a hit. If you think it takes a lot of saavy to be an actor, just remember that Shirley Temple was doing it all when she was four.
dope albrt, maybe you're thinking of the <a href=http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/contributor/1809695532">other one, who performed "Come Wit De Reggae Music" for the film "Phat Girlz".
Come to think of it, maybe that is the same guy as our Rob Dawg.
How history repeats itself. Many Victorian McMansions from the turn of the century in many large urban cities were split up into apartments and multi family dwellings after economic downturns in 1873 and so o
Is that Mafia, Russian oligarchs, drug cartels=Madoff a joke? Hub & I put on our tinfoils and were kiddin' around just after the Madoff scandal broke, fantasizing that maybe he was laundering Russian mafia money through naked shorts. Sounds like someone else was on the same wavelength.
Re: Privatizing libraries. So, it'll cost ya now to read books. Joins the backend of free TeeVee & radio.
Culture is morphing as we speak. Story sounds like a Dr. Phil TV moment to me.
Thought there might be a comeback of the Depression-era (and earlier bad times) boarding house.
How history repeats itself. Many Victorian McMansions from the turn of the century in many large urban cities were split up into apartments and multi family dwellings after economic downturns in 1873 and so on megamike | 12.30.08 - 1:21 pm | # You just defined Worcester Massachusetts.
Unlike the Victorians, McMansions that get used hard by multiple families at once will be ready for the bulldozer in 20-25 years, or less. They won't be worth putting a penny of fix-up costs in.
Heh, this is where my (soon to be ex)-wife and I are, due to all the foreclosures in our neighborhood prices have dropped 60-80% from 260-280's to 80-100's, with some as low as 50K. Never expected it to stay in the upper 200's, but didn't expect this far.
Thankfully we're both being mature and not out to screw the other. I can afford the payments (but not if we need to refinance) so we're going to take 3 years and if the market hasn't improved I'll buy her out for some pittance and worry about it then.
I've never understood the hatred against prenupts. All you're doing is agreeing on what you both think is a fair way to split up while you're both still being nice to each other. By the time the marriage is dissolving, one's emotions will cloud what one thinks is fair, and suddenly someone making 200k a year with a stay-at-home spouse will think that it's fair to dump the spouse with no work experience and no job with no money and no house. How's one supposed to make an attempt at life. Similarly, if one has nothing going into a marriage with someone who has a great amount of assets, it's rather unfair for one to try to lay claim to everything before, rather than to only future joint assets.
And I say this as one who signed a prenupt when I had nothing besides personal possessions and my wife had a house in the free and clear. Having known several people who've had divorces, even if both spouses are on an equal footing, a prenupt makes just as much sense as getting everything in writing while undergoing a divorce*.
we've said that to 3 friends who were at varying times in the process of "amicable" divorces. We were ignored. Suddenly a few weeks later the divorce is no longer amicable, and the other person is disavowing any previous concessions. Fucking idiots. Get a prenupt, and get everything in writing regarding one's "amicable" divorce.
The big problem I see with HOAs is that they have the power to make things very expensive for an owner who runs afoul of them.
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 1:05 pm | #
ACP get's it - it's not that you can't win [the legal battle] it's that you can't win [come out with any value for trying]. Good point & worth noting. Thx.
Thankfully, I found this out before buying any home. Years ago, I worked for an insulation company. We landed a contract with a HOA to increase all their attic insulation on all their properties. We had to go into one unit to get into the attic and the owner of that unit was extremely PO'd that a) he discovered he had no right to keep us out of "his home" if that was the way we had to use to enter the attic, and b) he now knew his "ownership" of his home ended at the inside surface of the interior paint. Everything else on the property belonged to the HOA.
I knew then that whatever benefits might come from living in a HOA, the liabilities outweighed them.
But then, I also thought living 5 miles out of town would insulate me from annoying town ordinances. Urban creep is now about 50 feet away...
US unemployment rate at or above 8% in December 2009 50% Anonymous | 12.30.08 - 1:24 pm | # --- I'll take the over on that bet, but I'm also betting that the unemployment rate will be gamed as much as possible.
How that isn't more than 50% makes me wonder how they will measure it.
Unlike the Victorians, McMansions that get used hard by multiple families at once will be ready for the bulldozer in 20-25 years, or less. They won't be worth putting a penny of fix-up costs in.
That's Ballgame Comrades | 12.30.08 - 1:24 pm | #
Depends on how it is done - while modern build is cheap - it is also 'disposable'... cut and paste rework carpentry might work better in some of these new el cheapos than trying to cut up the structurally more sound Vic's - the new builds are almost like 'balloons' w/ the bulk of their structurals on the outer walls - Vics have pretty rigid internal structure - when they go you got problems - I know my home although not a Vic was built in 1915 and has central 'column' settling that is near impossible to fix w/out dynamite. Newer mass builds generally don't do that - they are shell support outside then almost like 'office cubicles' inside.
I got the cash 5 years ago put it in Cd's, he kept the house and married his Malibu Barbie, he borrowed on the house so he could get another one at the beach to please now pregnant Barbie... Now the house is worth 30% less, heloc gone, beach house in Ventura 75% down and Barbie is not happy.
La vengeance est un plat qui se mange froid.
Revenge is a dish that is delicious when cold.
I am now sunning myself on my golf course townhouse bought 75% off. I am one happy old cow. Let him push that stroller, at 55 it's a good exercise.
None of the work that gets done inside McMansions in order to accommodate multiple families will be subtle or attractive. ... It will be makeshift, random and cheaply done. ... The whole point is that nobody has money. ... If there was money to do a proper interior reworking of a McMansion to accommodate two families, there were be no need to do such!
It's the future renovators who will have to decide whether to fix up the battered, carved up McMansions, or just nuke 'em.
"Though the services would vary from branch to branch, Nutter said the centers would likely retain book collections, computers, and perhaps even trained librarians."
Why are all of you getting divorced so readily? As a single male, I would think getting married would be a good thing. In addition to regular access to sex, I would think the lifelong companionship would be a great boon, particularly for the hard times such as this. Perhaps it's because I'm young and have never been married but I just don't understand how two people in love can turn so acrimonious so quickly and why people do not put more of an effort to work things out.
Actually, the movement to group homes had already begun before the crash. Current hardship will propel it forward. Just Google "intentional communities."
I wasn't joking ballgame. My parents have been happily married for nearly twenty five years and I've never seen my father raise his voice to my mother once nor vice-versa (well except for the occasional nagging).
Peak-to-Trough Decline in Industrial Production in Various Countries (Annual Data) Country Decline Unites States 46.8 % Great Britain 16.2 % Germany 41.8 % France 31.3 % Canada 42.4 % Czechoslovakia 40.4 % Italy 33.0 % Belgium 30.6 % Netherlands 37.4 % Sweden 10.3 % Denmark 16.5 % Poland 46.6 % Argentina 17.0 % Brazil 7.0 % Japan 8.5 %
Now look at this graph of Japan industrial production via Across the Curve.
Now the house is worth 30% less, heloc gone, beach house in Ventura 75% down and Barbie is not happy. La vengeance est un plat qui se mange froid. cremebrulee | 12.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #
Good for you but I think you exagerate a bit about Ventura beach house prices. Maybe 20% so far.
Why are all of you getting divorced so readily? As a single male, I would think getting married would be a good thing. In addition to regular access to sex, I would think the lifelong companionship would be a great boon, particularly for the hard times such as this. Perhaps it's because I'm young and have never been married but I just don't understand how two people in love can turn so acrimonious so quickly and why people do not put more of an effort to work things out.
I can haz bailouts? | 12.30.08 - 1:39 pm | #
Despite the commercials, love is rarely forever. Furthermore, while both have to agree to get married, eithone can decide to devorce, and the other basically has no say in the matter. Also, all that stuff you read in HS about equal protection under the law does not apply in the kangaroo courts that handle these matters. Divorce if you dont have kids is not that big a deal, but as soon as you have kids it is a huge mess, and if you are a guy, you WILL get screwed. "Free sex" is always more expensive than the sex you pay for, with the possible exception of Elliot Spitzer.
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp.s bailout from the U.S. Treasury, including billions of dollars committed to the automaker and its financing arm, has analysts predicting its bankrupt former parts unit, Delphi Corp., might get the same.
I am not sure if Goodyear is next, but I do think airlines must be pretty pissed they have not gotten anything from the government yet.
I can haz bailouts? writes: \tWhy are all of you getting divorced so readily? As a single male, I would think getting married would be a good thing. In addition to regular access to sex, I would think the lifelong companionship would be a great boon, particularly for the hard times such as this. Perhaps it's because I'm young and have never been married but I just don't understand how two people in love can turn so acrimonious so quickly and why people do not put more of an effort to work things out. \t I can haz bailouts? | \t \t \t \t12.30.08 - 1:39 pm | # ---- O-M-F-G. No, seriously OMFG.
1) The "regular access to sex" makes me think of the joke "Marrying for sex is like buying a 747 for a bag of peanuts". Also, there is nothing "regular" about access to sex in a marriage... 2) It could be a possible life-long companion or it could be a life-long albatross.
I'd go on, but can haz had to be joking. I just have missed it.
FD: I'm a single person, never married. I do work in a "family law" law firm so I have some professional experience in this arena.
I thought it was amazing how screwed that guy who went on the Xmas rampage got in divorce (not saying it for justification, I was just amazed and how one sided it appeared to be). They weren't married very long, she gets money and his dog but he gets to keep the $150,000 underwater house. I can't imagine how bad the courts would have treated the guy if they actually had a kid together. The mom gets the kid by default and the dad gets to pay for it by default.
I sued my HOA in small claims court three times within a year...once over a insurance claim deficiency on property damage, two times for withholding copies of checks issued/bills paid to whom...I received a tie on fourth suit, wherein I attempted to sue the board members individually...without prestigious...
Board members know absolutely nothing about the law...same goes for the management company...The lawyers are third rate and file to merely intimidate. On my first suit in small claims the HOA didn't show it...I won by default...An attorney filed for an appeal after the deadline...falsified record of appointment of the attorney...signed after deadline, but submitted it as valid...she claimed they never received court notice of hearing date...that her husband was in the hospital for cancer treatment, yada, yada, yada...
I provided the Judge evidence of notification and falsification of records...
After I won the appeal and got the max., ie $5,000...I filed a claim against the Judge at CA justice for judical performance, the attorney to the local bar and the HOA/mgt co. to the FBI...
The HOA and the mgt co. now leave me completely alone...
OT: Why get divorced? Because in time priorities change, or they don't. Wife wasn't ready at 21 to start a family, at 22, I wasn't either, but I wanted one. Was willing to wait till I was 30, and well my 30th birthday comes July 2009. She's even more anti-child then she was then. There's some related garbage, such as my wanting to settle down and her having wanderlust to see the next horizon and have adventures. No one's fault, we made predictions and plans based on the best information we had at the time, it just turned out to be a wrong decision. I don't regret it, but the timing could be better.
j marston writes: \tYMMV \t j marston | \t \t \t \t12.30.08 - 1:51 pm | # ---- My parents are at 31 years in their marriage, and they are basically the only people in their social/peer group that have never been divorced. I've handled cases where the couple got married on a Labor Day, saw each other for 2 months, and then decided to call it quits.
I got the cash 5 years ago put it in Cd's, he kept the house and married his Malibu Barbie...
I am now sunning myself on my golf course townhouse bought 75% off. I am one happy old cow. Let him push that stroller, at 55 it's a good exercise. cremebrulee | 12.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #
With those 'credentials' - you'll get asked out on dates around this place. Might need a fatter little black book.
The conclusion of that Great Depression PDF is a riot:
Keyness theory
suggested that increases in government spending, tax cuts, and monetary expansion could be
used to counteract depressions. This insight, combined with a growing consensus that
government should try to stabilize employment, has led to much more activist policy since the
1930s. Legislatures and central banks throughout the world now routinely attempt to prevent or
moderate recessions. Whether such a change would have occurred without the Depression is
again a largely unanswerable question. What is clear is that this change has made it unlikely that
a decline in spending will ever be allowed to multiply and spread throughout the world as it did
during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Because the mistake all governments have made in the past is that they didn't encourage enough spending. Nobody would have thought to try that before.
Both of you make good points. If you are close to a couple (parents, relatives) that have made it work for the long haul, it can be an inspiration. If, on the other hand, you have been divorced or have helped a family through a divorce (as a friend or lawyer, etc.), it becomes clear that sometimes couples just aren't meant to stay together. YMMV.
None of the work that gets done inside McMansions in order to accommodate multiple families will be subtle or attractive. ... It will be makeshift, random and cheaply done. ... The whole point is that nobody has money. ... If there was money to do a proper interior reworking of a McMansion to accommodate two families, there were be no need to do such! That's Ballgame Comrades | 12.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #
Exactly - when there is no money and they are bought cheap - who cares if they are attractive. Again - look inside the old retrofit Victorians - gives definition to the word 'wood butcher'.
I can haz bailouts: I can't speak much for divorces: I survived my first wife, and don't plan on leaving my 2nd. With the prenupt in place, there's pain for both of us if it ends (and now with kids who'd feel way more pain than either of us that's a good thing). My wife divorced her first hubby, but he was an ass (I lived with them for a few months). He wanted to be married; he didn't want to be married to her. He was happy to go to work, come home, play on the computer until she'd been in bed for an hour and then quietly go to sleep. He was glad when I was around; I'd keep her out of his hair (/me rolls his eyes).
As for why a lot of other people are getting divorced, I think because primarily two factors. 1) they have some fantasy of what marriage is (sex whenever you want it? Yeah right. You know that you can rape your spouse, right? S/He is under no obligation to even give you a hand job just because you're in the mood) and 2) they have no social structure to make them work to stay together.
1) many people think that their spouse will magically change in some ways, and never change in others. They'll give up their annoying habits; drop their friends to shower attention on you. The reality is that a lot of habits won't change, so how about living together (in someplace rented) for a year before marriage? If s/he expects you to make dinner all the time, s/he will still expect that while married. if s/he complains about X, s/he will still do so. if s/he spends 40 hours a week playing WoW, s/he will still expect to spend 40 hours a week playing WoW. This is where my wife made her mistake with her first husband. Thinking that marriage would change a relationship that wasn't too great.
Similarly, one's sex life will eb and flow. When my current wife and I got together it wasn't a question of if we'd have sex, but how many times that day. Would I wear her out, or would she wear me out? Sometimes we've gone up to a month or so without sex, but we still come around (pun not intended too much) and start having daily sex again.
Kids. Many people get married wtihout a shared understanding of when/how many/if they want kids. ?!?! That's fucking ridiculous. Seriously, there should be some questions to get a marriage license, and number one will be about kids. Speaking of kids (and pets) when you've got one kid screaming that you're both the worst parents ever for handing out consequences for bad actions, one of you is cleaning dog barf out of the carpet, and the other is cleaning up another kid who wet his pants, that's when you really know that marriage isn't just fantasy ... unless you're a really, really sick person.
2) I don't think that marriage should be an unendable event. I don't think that one should get a scarlet letter D to wear for the rest of their life, or a tattoo on their forheads. But at the same point, how many people get divorced without a consideration or attempt at couple's counselling? My wife had to fight to get her husband into couple's counselling twice; he'd pay lip service, and continue doing what he was doing. The other couples that we've known to divorce didn't do any couple's counselling. Also the single parent is now so common that most people don't give the slightest consideration to what will happen to their kids.
But a part of this is marriage is work. You have to keep talking with the other person. Find out the subtle ways that they've changed since you met them. Look for how you've changed, and try and plot how the two of you want to continue to change. You have to not do/say stupid things during arguments. You have to make concessions at times. It's not all glamour.
And a lot of people only want to consider glamour, and they're raised to believe that they're special little snow flakes who deserve no less.
The HOA and the mgt co. now leave me completely alone...
Anonymous | 12.30.08 - 1:51 pm |
Bravo. If more people had the time and determination to smack the HOA bullies in the nose a bit more often, maybe they wouldn't be so cavalier about their petty little power trips. Your comment about them not knowing the law completely rings true. I was stunned at the level of arrogance and ignorance. Not only did they not have a clue regarding the FCC regs, their first two letters and even their comments at the board meeting I attended indicated that they hadn't even read the dish installation policy that was clearly and simply stated in the CC&Rs (and which I had fully complied with in the first place).
Are you making the point that, assuming Japan has already suffered the same decline as in GD1, we can expect even greater declines (than 46%) in U.S. this time around?
OT: Since the Fed has expanded its balance sheet to over 2 Trillion of crap already, why can't it just buy up every bad debt in the system and eat them all?
That would be the TARP writ large and the Fed can create as much money as it wants. Debts forgiven, every goes back to the party, no?
"The Dark Ages recommence.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #
Yup. They should have looked to see if the Benedictines would take them over."
I had the same thought - though no specific order in mind.
My contact with a small New England college will remind them of an archive next month.
Preservation and memory may become even more important in the next years.
My wife has been building an archive of family documents and artifacts for some years now. Branches of her family go back to pre-revolutionary times on this continent, but there is also much from the 19th century onward, including old photographs.
It's important to preserve all of these precious things, in any form they exist, including oral memory preserved electronically.
People should be encouraged to recover and record their roots.
Proper libraries are much more important to a civilization than stock exchanges.
o way! I use to live in one that had windows that were 10x my age and didnt keep out the drafts. good lord it was cold.... and those damn radiators..... i'm happy to live in a place that doesnt have a heater... infact i havent used one in 5 years...
--
Q1: Did evildoers Greenspan, Bush and Bernanke knew the cost of their hunger for power at any cost? (Housing Bubble wouldnt have been possible without that).
Q2: What sort of system elevates the evildoers to the most powerful positions?
Q3: What if only evildoers, or trustworthy slaves of Crooks with behind-the-scenes power, could get to the positions of the highest power?
Q4: If the above were to be the case, what solutions are practical?
no way! I use to live in one that had windows that were 10x my age and didnt keep out the drafts. good lord it was cold.... and those damn radiators..... i'm happy to live in a place that doesnt have a heater... infact i havent used one in 5 years... \t nades | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 2:11 pm | #
Ahhh a fellow satisfied customer. March 31st, 1983. The snowstorm. Why I live in SoCal today.
GMAC reduced the credit score necessary to get a loan from 700 (very good) to 621 (not very good.)
GMAC turns around and loans out money at 0% which it has to pay 8% to acquire, and at the same time decides that it will make loans to people with credit scores significantly worse than average, when before they would make loans only to people with scores that were slightly better than average.
"The company said it wont finance higher-risk transactions, instead concentrating on prime customers who are more likely to repay using responsible credit standards. The relaxed policy will allow us to return to more normal levels of financing volume, and should help in efforts to stabilize the U.S. auto industry, GMAC President Bill Muir said in todays statement."
Assume Crash Positions,
with regard to HOA, the management co was the instigator of all our problems...They seem to think that because they read a reg in some flyer or told to them repeated by mgt co. that they are immune to a suit by a homeowner for their actions...they can do anything they want with impunity...
When I sued the former and current board member, they saw the error of their ways...The case was closed without prestigious, which If I had wanted, I could refile the case...wasn't necessary, I made my point...
They were not immune to being dragged in front of a judge to explain their actions.
PS: I was a former board member, and did my research and my own filing...
There's a big market here for happy old cows? Comrade V | 12.30.08 - 2:04 pm | #
Frugal, financially independent & savvy investor old cows? My guess is 'yes' there would be a market for that... but it's probably like the joke about 'personals' here in Minnesota: SM looking for SF with fishing boat for long lasting relationship. Please send picture of boat.
Except in this case it would be 'please send copies of prospectus'...
"anony17 writes:
I've never understood the hatred against prenupts. All you're doing is agreeing on what you both think is a fair way to split up while you're both still being nice to each other."
They're okay if you're equals financially. But when one side's negotiating from a position of strength, they can be used as a weapon if/when the relationship goes south. Even if the person using it is responsible for the sh*t happening.
My mom remarried in her 70s to an 82-year-old guy who insisted on a rather severe prenup; Mom didn't care for it, but I told her to take it. They were both old, both had assets, it's understandable he'd want to conserve his for his heirs. They split expenses down the middle.
As it turned out, Mom died first, and her widower whined endlessly about the conditions of the prenup he had structured, and tried to get out of them. Y'see, he'd expected to die first. Sanctimonious bastard.
Preservation and memory may become even more important in the next years. Pavel Chichikov | 12.30.08 - 2:08 pm | #
My sister, a one time lawyer now historian agrees - it will be a huge challenge considering how fast modern materials [especially digital] deteriorate.
® writes:
I thought it was amazing how screwed that guy who went on the Xmas rampage got in divorce (not saying it for justification, I was just amazed and how one sided it appeared to be)
I was amazed he didn't go for the lawyers and judge first.
Are you making the point that, assuming Japan has already suffered the same decline as in GD1, we can expect even greater declines (than 46%) in U.S. this time around? Comrade V | 12.30.08 - 2:07 pm | #
V,
Japan was far less export dependent during GD1 so it got hit a lot less. However, this time around it is extremely export dependent and already got hit twice as hard in just a few months. This could be quite a bad omen.
I'm also struck with the thought that industrial production declines might not be as representative as some people hope for economic health. Just because manufacturing intensive economies experience greater drops because of exaggerated drops in power generation does not necessarily mean that the population isn't hit as hard. This might be especially true of the U.S. as there has never been a society as consumption oriented as this one in history.
The unfunny thing about any mcmansion built in the last 10 years is the poor construction materials and shoddy construction standards.
The irony with the housing boom and heloc abuse is the money being lent on homes engineered to fail. More form over substance revealed about the formerly great USA.
I keep searching for some aspect of our society that still holds true to fundamental beliefs of truth, integrity, and hard work. Feeling a little hopeless in identifying anything I can point too and say "there is the reason we'll persevere and prosper."
"The old boarding house is the new multi-family dwelling.
Do they cook communally too?
JimPortlandOR | 12.30.08 - 2:23 pm | # "
Stew for 10 is much more cost-effective that stew for 2. I know several widows who've rented rooms over the years for extra income. Cooking for them is just one extra step.
I spend too much time worrying about the clarity of my posts and not enough time on reading comprehension, evidently. Between your comment and the one just below it, I thought I had the acronym wrong, hence my explanation.
Meanwhile, really OT, can anyone tell me what "FB" stands for? I've read it here a number of times but don't quite get it.
" Speed writes:
A prenuptial agreement should be a requirement for a marriage license. It would prevent many sour marriages from happening to begin with.
Speed | 12.30.08 - 2:26 pm | # "
Have to disagree. A lawyer once described marriage to me as a package of rights and responsibilities; an agreement in its own right.
If the agreement doesn't work for you -- might be better just not to get married. Form some other agreement.
prenuptial agreements are unimportant when you are young,nothing of value and intend on a family...Can't see how its of value for the young and poor...Now, if you are older, no more children, then it would serve a worth while purpose, however watch out if one of the parties gets a life insurance policy on the other with a large payout...That next cruse may have only one of the two returning...
CR: OT but may be of interest...anyone interested in Canyon de Chelly and Colorado Plateau should find the book "House of Rain". I don't recall the author right this second, but it is a very informative and readable account of current archaelogical/anthropological thinking on what happened to Anasazi and why they built their structures the way they did. It's kind of a travel memoir/cultural analysis. Highly recommended.
A prenuptial agreement should be a requirement for a marriage license. It would prevent many sour marriages from happening to begin with. Speed | 12.30.08 - 2:26 pm | #
Any contract can be broken given enough incentive [if the couple has resources worth fighting over]. Prenups only work if they are 'generous' to both sides and the parties are reasonable. Usually prenups are drawn up to protect the asymmetrical asset distribution... THAT is a formula for future litigation [you want this settled quickly, cleanly & quietly - then pay me].
There really are no completely safe harbors in a divorce.
Pavel: My family, too, is an old one. Back to the founding of Va. I've been running hard paper copies of everything I've found. I make copies & send them to interested relatives, so if mine disappear, they have their copies.
I tell them that while they may not care about it, they may later have a grandchild who does. Keep it for them.
For now, I'm the record keeper for the whole family.
in Slovakia, what you earned before marriage is completely yours and the wife/husband gets only 50% of what is earned together during the marriage itself. also gifts and inheritance during marriage belong only to the one who receives them and inherits them.
well the liberals managed to get this 24 hours period during which the husband can be forbidden to live in his house if women threw herself to glass, but thats all the feminists could achieve ...
Citizen Jacked wrote: "I keep searching for some aspect of our society that still holds true to fundamental beliefs of truth, integrity, and hard work. Feeling a little hopeless in identifying anything I can point too and say "there is the reason we'll persevere and prosper." "
American houses are so wasteful. We should try more communal living, with common cooking areas, at least. Why does every house need a kitchen worth thousands of dollars, if it is only used two or three times a day? Four ovens and eight stove tops might be enough for twelve familes. Bathrooms are something else that could be considered.
RE writes:
"I'm also struck with the thought that industrial production declines might not be as representative as some people hope for economic health."
While some might believe decline in industrial capacity rebalances excess supply, I don't see how you ignore the economic impact of idling all those resources. The latter has to be more destructive than former. At least in near term.
A couple of thoughts on the McMansion- most of them look perfect for about five people to live in an assisted living situation here in Phoenix, with a caretaker couple living in the guesthouse.
As for divorce, what I tell younger folks these days is move in together, then get married when you decide it will last for five years. Kids cost big time. Remember that- big time!!!
Unequal marriages almost never last. The controller (usually the guy), who makes all the money marries the waitress(Or replace this with doc and nurse, dentist and hygenist). Couple of kids, huge investment in (now dead) residential real estate. Guy buys sports car and finds new bimbo to do it all over again. Gee, big surprise. Lather, rinse, repeat. The amazing part is the next wife is usually a younger carbon copy of the last- and resents the resources used for the first family!
What amazes me is the sense of entitlement to a lifestyle. On both sides!!! I believe in buying stuff as a result of the big three D's- death, divorce, and destitution.
I have very little sympathy in most divorces, while the laws are biased against men, the truth is a vicious spouse will make a lot of misery.
A very good friend ended up raising two daughters after wife walked out on him. She still owes 50K in back child support- the kids are now grown and gone. No wedding invite for her. No grandparent time for her, no nothing from those two girls.
I talked with the younger one a while ago- her resentment is still quite fresh- and I doubt it will ever fade.
I totally agree with the Snowflake comment up above, people are so damned shallow. They get what they deserve. Money is just money, go make more of it. As for relationships, they are what make your life, well, yours.
I just don't understand how two people in love can turn so acrimonious so quickly and why people do not put more of an effort to work things out.
I can haz bailouts?
I suggest you give an attorney a power of attorney to approve/disapprove of a proposed marriage. You're not ready for that decision.
50% of marriages fail.
Also: see the movie "War of the Roses" (Michael Douglas, Kathleen Turner, Danny DeVito)
WASHINGTON (AP) The Government Accountability Office says federal contract protests by U.S. businesses hit a 10-year high in 2008 and increased 17 percent from last year. The GAO says companies filed more than 1,600 protests with federal auditors in 2008. Thats up from more than 1,400 last year and the highest level since 1998. Very few errors were found in the governments decisions, but at least three major Pentagon programs worth a combined $70 billion were delayed this year due to protests filed by Boeing Co., Lockheed Martin Corp., Northrop Grumman Corp. and others.
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) Stocking up on aspirin by Wednesday night will do more than blunt a New Years Day hangover for many people across the country. Purchases like that also help employees who hold health Flexible Spending Accounts whittle their balances before 2008 ends and, in many cases, they forfeit their money. Benefits experts say there are several last-minute ways to use leftover money in these accounts. FSAs give consumers possible tax savings by letting them use money from payroll deductions on certain health-related expenses. People with accounts that must be used by Dec. 31 have no time to schedule a medical procedure. Even squeezing in an eye exam may prove impossible, so its time to start thinking about the small items. Band-Aids, cough syrup, laxatives and even condoms are all eligible for flex spending dollars.
While some might believe decline in industrial capacity rebalances excess supply, I don't see how you ignore the economic impact of idling all those resources. The latter has to be more destructive than former. At least in near term. Comrade V | 12.30.08 - 2:41 pm | #
Have a look at this link. Especially the yellow table.
... But, the important question is why production had fallen off so much in 1933 compared with 1929. Here it is instructive to look at the components of the demand for the nation's output. The output of any nation is purchased by four categories of buyers; consumers, business investors, governments and foreign buyers as exports. The purchases of U.S. output by foreign buyers is offset by American purchases of foreign production as imports. A glance at the table below tells what was happening to the components of demand. ...
I am actually in the process of trying to find nominal GDP data for the U.K. for the period. I'd like to compare U.S. and U.K. data in terms of nominal GDP because the difference in the fall of industrial production between the two countries is so pronounced in GD1. Any links would be appreciated.
The reason why I'm so interested in this is because many commentators are claiming that the U.S. will suffer so much less this time around because it is now a CAD country vs. the biggest exporter during GD1. I have some doubts, as I mentioned before, as I'm not certain that these commentators are taking into consideration the huge size of the service economy and excessive consumption. Just hunting for facts.
JimPortland: All sorts of arrangements going on. Saw one where a group of young guys were advertising for an older woman who could cook. They needed a kinda dorm mother. Folks with with acreage in Montana & other western areas who needed people willing to work on the land.
Interesting stuff. I was looking for my daughter who at an older age has gone back to school.
The big problem I see with HOAs is that they have the power to make things very expensive for an owner who runs afoul of them. Nothing more awesome than paying dues that fund an attorney whose job it is to harass you and also needing to pay out of pocket for your own attorney to defend against the BS.
Oh, I don't really disagree, but you're using the example of a single occupant-owner up against a healthy HOA. And I agree - under normal conditions, this is exactly how they operate and how it plays out.
My point is: in an HOA with half the houses under foreclosure - bank ownership - where the bank in question is an equally large, and equally immobile bureaucracy - the same leverage doesn't exist. Moreover, if half the houses in the neighborhood are under foreclosure and not paying dues...they can starve the HOA until it eats up it's bank account paying an attorney to chase after the properties.
This is NOT the same as you or any other Joe Schmoe going up against them over a friggen satellite dish.
If the agreement doesn't work for you -- might be better just not to get married. Form some other agreement.
Bob Dobbs | 12.30.08 - 2:30 pm | #
True, but marriage has many features that can not be duplicated by other arraingements. For example, if you are not married in effect you pay higher SS taxes (get less benefit for same taxes) and cant file joint tax return if just cohabitating
"Pavel: My family, too, is an old one. Back to the founding of Va. I've been running hard paper copies of everything I've found. I make copies & send them to interested relatives, so if mine disappear, they have their copies."
My wife and her relatives exchange hard copy of old records, photographs, even photos of tombstones and their inscriptions. Some memorial societies do that too.
When a friend of mine got divorced, his wife wanted all the cash. He was the CFO of a small high tech company and had some options that didn't have a high value at the time. The divorce was finalized with her getting 50% in the form of loads of cash.
5 years later, those options were worth quite a bit more. She hauled him back in to court claiming he had known the options would be worth much more. My friend was afraid to face the judge and gave her another bundle of cash.
Marriage should not be the norm. Living together relationships should be done on year/year leases, with lots of attachments to the lease. (My apt lease has 33 pages of attachments regarding mold, satellite tv, forbidding aquariums, etc.)
Then at the end of each year, the renegotiation occurs. If you want more/less sex, write an attachment to argue over. Don't forget damage deposits also (Your 50" HD TV might just 'fall off the wall' with a hammer stuck in it.
Also remove all the tax goodies for marriages (joint filing tax rates, mortgage interest deduction, etc.) and rquire individually filed taxes.
We abolished slavery, so its cousin marriage can be done away with too.
I keep searching for some aspect of our society that still holds true to fundamental beliefs of truth, integrity, and hard work. Feeling a little hopeless in identifying anything I can point too and say "there is the reason we'll persevere and prosper."
Citizen Jacked | 12.30.08 - 2:24 pm | #
be that reason. even if it seems to be achieved in very insignificant ways.
the guest writes:
Citizens need a prenup with the Guvmint.
We have one. spelled out plain as day and codified in every aspect of the Federal structure of the independent States of the Union. Didn't work out so well for the Confederated States despite their dotting every "i" crossing every "t."
Pavel: Your wife is lucky she has other family members helping. I'm no genealogist (just have an insatiable curiousity) and have been working on it in spits & starts over the past 6 years. Sadly, my computer skills are lacking. Thought of hiring an expert. Figured I don't need one unless I want to be a member of some Daughters of such & such group. I think I'll do all the investigation, and let a wealthier descendant pay for the privilege of joining.
What state (colony) does your wife's family spring from? Just curious.
Don't worry, guys! I won't turn this into a genealogical gabfest. Genealogists can be absolute fanatics!!!
True, but marriage has many features that can not be duplicated by other arraingements. For example, if you are not married in effect you pay higher SS taxes (get less benefit for same taxes) and cant file joint tax return if just cohabitating Dirk | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 3:03 pm | #
Also any joint property is REALLY hard to divy up when common law marriage is divorced... and common law marriage is whatever the judge says it is.
I was in a coffee shop near the county courthouse yesterday overhearing to two friends (one, apparently, in a bad marriage) discuss who would get the home. It turned out that there was not a lot of equity in the home, and the question was whether she could just walk away leaving him with the home.
"Every contract should be viewed as the starting place for the next negotiation.
Comrade V | 12.30.08 - 2:44 pm | # "
Words to live by. Also works for elections, court rulings, employment laws, etc. The only kind of agreement/deision that ever has a chance of being final is a win-win.
Why didn't all of these bitter men just marry women who were good earners and good with money? Seems like when you get married you know what the person is like going in?
Amen, brother. This is one of the things I love best about living out in the boonies these days on >50 acres. The county has a zoning ordinance, but they don't pester me about the junk pile - not toxic and you can't see it from the county road...plus, the property came with the junk pile.
" dryfly writes:
True, but marriage has many features that can not be duplicated by other arraingements. For example, if you are not married in effect you pay higher SS taxes (get less benefit for same taxes) and cant file joint tax return if just cohabitating
Dirk | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 3:03 pm | #
Also any joint property is REALLY hard to divy up when common law marriage is divorced... and common law marriage is whatever the judge says it is.
dryfly | 12.30.08 - 3:47 pm | # "
Dirk -- if that's important, they should get married and suck it up.
Dryfly -- the kind of "make it up yourself" marriage I'm talking about starts with a lawyer. I say it's an option, but I doubt few would take it or need it, especially if they're both going into a marriage with few assets.
An account once described to me the hell of forensic accounting following the breakup of informal relationships that held a lot of property. As he reminisced, beads of sweat popped out on his forehead.
That said, I've done it the "wrong" way myself. Had a woman move in with me and give me money to buy a house in my name because we of course would be together forever. Guess what? We still are, and we eventually married. Special circumstances, of course: I don't recommend this to anyone unless there's absolute trust verified by years of experience.
Why didn't all of these bitter men just marry women who were good earners and good with money?
Hmmm...I'm not bitter. I am a two-time divorcee. In hindsight, the first marriage was really quite good, we did split 'amicably' (though she was not happy about the divorce, she did not go after me), and we really were able to minimize legal fees...under $1k when all was said and done. As others noted...people's priorities change, and ours did...away from one another.
Seems like when you get married you know what the person is like going in?
This is naive - the power of self-deception and magical thinking is remarkable...note the housing bubble.
This is naive - the power of self-deception and magical thinking is remarkable...note the housing bubble. Scott | 12.30.08 - 4:06 pm | #
Sure, but I was raised to take responsibility for my choices. When I was dating, sometimes I ran across losers that wanted me to be a sugar mama, but I didn't bash the whole male race for it. Maybe you idealize the person but you know whether or not they are financially self-sufficient going in.
Maybe it is a generational thing. I know some guys my age that were attracted to more traditional/homekeeper type, but they knew what they were getting into -- they know that a woman with an elementary ed degree can't support a family and are not bitter about their choices.
(1) Hydrox cookies are back (at least temporarily).
(2) Some marriages work really well.*
Second marriage in my case for both. It does seem to take an awful long time and a lot of living for many people to get a handle on what marriage is about. Having a prior marriage of course is no guarantor of success, but IMHO it beats the "live together until you feel comfortable" meme for first timers. Once married, and children arrive, managing the multiple jobs of sustaining a relationship, raising kids, paying bills, and advancing careers seems to me to be just about impossible. More power to those who do make it through, and especially to those women who choose to take leave of careers to work at home.
(3) Finally, when a marriage partnership is working, it is a wonderful thing to be a part of. I'll drink to that.
RE: Many thanks for the very cogent explanation of GD1. I particularly noted the discussion about "real" interest rates in relation to deflation, a concept I've never seen explained before but on refelction makes sense. Sorry I do not have UK GDP data but will keep request in mind.
The only discussion that isn't covered in the SJ presentation, is the effect of volocity (maybe I need to reread), but the statement recited here and other places most often is that analysis of money supply needs to conside velocity and when, as now, transactions begin dwindling, all of the liquidity being added will not overcome the inertia in the system. You are way ahead of me in your research, and I'm wondering how you integrate that concept with SJ's focus on reduction in investment due to rising real interest rates.
Again, many thanks. The piece was nicely written and illustrated.
A friend who does construction law and I talked about the fate of McMansions about ten years ago. The friend pointed out that breaking them up into units wasn't feasible for many of the reasons cited in this thread. Lousy construction was, of course, at the top of the list.
One item I haven't seen mentioned yet though is that many McMansions are remote from probably employment centers. As Kunstler (and others) point out, long commutes are going to strain the pocketbook too.
Rob Dawg wrote: "I think we've identified a new use for all those empty ocean going cargo containers stacking up in Long Beach."
I can't decide if you're joking or not, but containers are already being used for housing. There are even modular designs that exploit their stackability.
dryfly wrote: "it will be a huge challenge considering how fast modern materials [especially digital] deteriorate."
In Charles Stross's science-fiction novel "Glasshouse," future people refer to this period as the second Dark Ages because so little information can be recovered. As one character said (approximately), "Books and film are fine, you can look at them and see the information. But then they started to put everything in digital forms, and the formats changed every few years. Also, for some reason they started encrypting everything..."
Ever hear of Marvin v Marvin - acquired assets are community property after 6 months cohabit. Probably won't extend to "support" if you make sure that you never (in another's presence) tell her how much you love her and will take care of her.....
I can haz bailouts? writes:
Why are all of you getting divorced so readily? As a single male, I would think getting married would be a good thing. In addition to regular access to sex, I would think the lifelong companionship would be a great boon, particularly for the hard times such as this. Perhaps it's because I'm young and have never been married but I just don't understand how two people in love can turn so acrimonious so quickly and why people do not put more of an effort to work things out.
I can haz bailouts? | 12.30.08 - 1:39 pm | #
Well it sounds like you have a good head on your shoulders and definitely not a fool who would buy a cheaply built McMansion that you couldn't afford in a gated community controlled by an HOA.
Ken writes: In Charles Stross's science-fiction novel "Glasshouse," future people refer to this period as the second Dark Ages because so little information can be recovered.
I wish this vision were science fiction. According to the librarians I know, the current era is indeed likely to be Dark Ages II. Not only do our electronic devices morph constantly, but our paper is perishable. Most of our acid-based print sources, that is, almost all of our paper, will crumble sooner rather than later.
I am a family law attorney and of my clients who own property, half are facing foreclosure. These days, very few people come in my office fighting over assets. They come in to fight over who is going to eat the debts--mortgage, car, credit line, credit cards. Nothing but debts. Debts and kids.
first
I'll take the wife!
This analogy is unfair to the dead cow -- which, after all, is edible.
Here's the joke I wrote back in
Sunday, July 30, 2006 \t \t Divorce 2008 Style \t
Guy talks to his coworker in 2008 about his recent divorce:
"Man, I just finalized."
"Tough times. I know, I've been there. How'd it turn out?"
"It was vicious right to the end. She got nothing and I got the house."
"Sh!t! You got screwed. You needed a better lawyer."
"I know. Trouble is hers was a former Realtor®."
[Nodding] "You never had a chance."
here we go again..... this is so sick.
Expired
I know a couple with this problem - no one wants the house. - CR
I know a divorcing couple who have FIVE [four income properties & a residence] and a small farm - all but the farm is underwater and the aggregate is also negative [the positive equity in the farm doesn't cover the negative equity on the homes]... moneys flinging poo at the zoo look civilized in comparison to this break up.
FFDIC,you can have the ex,and the house.Wait,I like you,don't.
This analogy is unfair to the dead cow -- which, after all, is edible.
Not if it had mad cow disease.
moneys flinging poo at the zoo look civilized in comparison to this break up.
dryfly | 12.30.08 - 11:42 am | #
Should have read... MONKEYS at the zoo flinging poo... quite the Freudian slip that was.
moneys flinging poo at the zoo look civilized in comparison to this break up.
dryfly | 12.30.08 - 11:42 am | #
Should have read... MONKEYS at the zoo flinging poo... quite the Freudian slip that was.
dryfly | 12.30.08 - 11:43 am | #
No, there were lawyers involved. You were right the first time.
There must be a lot of guys smiling right about now that got a divorce in '06 and let the wife have the house.
No, there were lawyers involved. You were right the first time.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 11:44 am | #
LOL - ya maybe. Makes for a great visual... monkeys in suits & briefcases flinging poo at each other... somebody find THAT on youtube for me please.
rob,
Are you CIGA Rusty Bayonet over on Jim Sinclair's web site?
Once the no-house divorcee realizes s/he needs 20% down, a credit score in the 4 figs, a freshly-sacrificed first-born child, a set of boobs, nice legs, and a willingness to take somebody else's foreclosure in order to get a new casa, he or she may actually want the original house to afterall....
Are you CIGA Rusty Bayonet over on Jim Sinclair's web site?
\t
badger boy | 12.30.08 - 11:48 am | #
No. I don't use anything other than Rob Dawg and my own name.
There must be a lot of guys smiling right about now that got a divorce in '06 and let the wife have the house.
Not quite me but close enough.
.
Any chance we could spin this as a conserative win for family values?
just wonder'n
......
Someone mentioned the 401k bubble in another thread.
We just found out that our big company, which matches 50 percent up to 6 percent contribution, is pulling all matching for 2009.
Makes everyone want to get out of their 401k's or at least stop contributing.
OT:
Re: Consumer confidence hit an all-time low in December, dropping unexpectedly in the face of layoffs and deteriorating markets for housing, stocks and other investments.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 38 in December from a revised 44.7 in November. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected the index to rise incrementally to 45.
There must be a lot of guys smiling right about now that got a divorce in '06 and let the wife have the house.
bearly | 12.30.08 - 11:47 am | #
Only if she refinanced to get him off the note.
I thought getting rid of the cow was an objective of divorce, even if you were a renter.
Yep. For single men the 2 hottest and bestest words to put in your singles ad:
"Financially Secure"
You too can strap a 3/2 to your back and carry it for her.
Doug Kass:
Re: "Were finding the husband on one floor, the wife on the other, Ms. Decker said. Now one is coming home with a new boyfriend or girlfriend, and its creating a layer to relationships that we havent seen before. "
ROTFLMAO! This sounds like a Ménage à trois!
December consumer confidence hits all-time low- AP
Yet the market is up! The insanity continues...
ROTFLMAO! This sounds like a Ménage à trois!
\t Anonymous
Anonymous | 12.30.08 - 12:04 pm | #
That house swap / wife swap show might have been on to something....
We've only seen the tip of the iceberg on strange living arrangements that will be cropping up. I absolutely believe on the big trends will be regular-sized houses (not even McMansions, necessarily) with two full unrelated families stuffed inside. It will be interesting how local municipalities will react to this, if it violates zoning ordinances.
My sister in law is now recently divorced. She gave him the house and took the cat instead.
"There must be a lot of guys smiling right about now that got a divorce in '06 and let the wife have the house."
OK. From which house on the hill behind my office are you spying on me with a telescope?
"...in front of the home she and her husband once shared in Alpharetta, Ga."
I'm heading down to city hall this afternoon to see what we can do to get some better press. Alpharetta has more to offer than just starter castles (that no one can sell) and failing banks.
Okay, not really; but I have to live here, so try to be nice.
Mr. Market must like the extra cash for GMAC or the record price drop in homes, or the confidence level of tinged toilet water, or the building in of the depressing unemployment figures coming out tomorrow. Whew! Thank goodness everything is all better now.
Good news from Philadelphia. What else can we privatize?
Dec. 30 -- Mayor Nutter said yesterday that five of the 11 library branches once scheduled to close permanently on Thursday are instead on track to be taken over by private foundations, wealthy individuals, companies, and community development corporations.
\tIt was not immediately clear which branches have sponsors and the mayor did not identify the benefactors.
\tBut Nutter expressed confidence that in time private operators could convert each of the branches now on his budget chopping block into community knowledge centers that would offer similar or perhaps even superior services to those now available. Though the services would vary from branch to branch, Nutter said the centers would likely retain book collections, computers, and perhaps even trained librarians.
So where's our taxpayer money going? Well Mr. Paulson says it's fungible, so it's hard to trace. Here's what TARP money is being used for.
Former Merrill Lynch executive pays 37 million for NYC apartment (with taxpayer money)
Daily Kos: State of the Nation
Krauss exit payment is a stunner that represents to about 0.1% of Bank of Americas $25 billion capital injection from the U.S. government.
Okay, not really; but I have to live here, so try to be nice.
j marston | 12.30.08 - 12:11 pm | #
City slogan suggestion: "Alpharetta, at least we ain't Peachtree."
That's Ballgame Comrades said: "...It will be interesting how local municipalities will react to this, if it violates zoning ordinances."
Forget the city ordinances, it will get truly ugly if they're in violation of homeowners' association covenants.
The parking violations alone, from having too many cars parked on the street...
))
S.
I should have posted this question in the GMAC thread, but walked out of it once the Palestinian-Israel debate got going.
Here's my question: doesn't this structure of the bailout (funds to GMAC to enable them to lend more heartily) simply perpetuate the untenable state of affairs where the majority of people's incomes are stagnating or declining while the "financial system" tries to entice them to borrow more? How long can we expect the gasoline windfall to last? Don't people need higher incomes, rather than more debt?
Nutter said the centers would likely retain book collections, computers, and perhaps even trained librarians.
Perhaps? I guess if they are willing to work for minimum wage. So, in reality they are gone. No way to keep up the collection.
Sebastian is right. Don't fear the mortgage holder, don't fear the tax man, fear the Homeowner's Association. With some of the bubblezones entering year three we can soon expect HOAs pushing the foreclosure for dues and fines. Remember in most places HOAs are second only to property taxes (and tax liens) in line for being made whole. Mortgage product holders beware.
PS: it's hard for me to believe that people with estates formerly valued at 2 million plus cannot find a "modest home."
Homeowners associations can bite my ass.
Though I suppose you'll see the most draconion homeowners associations and gated communities become their own little fiefdoms that are the last bastions of "The Way Things Used To Be" ... Until the villages with torches over-run them.
If she is an aging trophy wife, nobody wants her anymore either.
Investment advisor Carl Spielvogel and his wife Barbaralee Diamonstein-Spielvogel sold their cooperative apartment at 720 Park Avenue, at the corner of 70th Street, for $36.63 million, nearly twice what they paid for it two years ago.
Question about the national debt ceiling. Are all of the bailouts being counted as national debt? If there's a prospect of a return, is the full amount of a bailout counted against the national debt? I'm wondering if some of the bailouts are being structured in such a way that Congress doesn't have to keep raising the debt ceiling. Like when they come from the Fed rather than Treasury, or when there's a projected return or future sale.
Re: Barbaralee Diamonstein
Whore, stripper, slut, porno starlette...
Think of all those poorly drafted pre-nups!. "Shoulda, woulda, coulda ..." Where is the prescient matrimonial attorney who read this blog and drafted accordingly?
On the muni freeze, the very, very odd thing is that my Cali Short term muni bond funds continue to move positively for last two weeks:
VCAIX: Basic Chart for VANGUARD CALIFORNIA INTERM TAX- - Yahoo! Finance
When the HOA forcloses on their homes; how do they get the dues? Are they going to re-sell these homes to collect dues; and then continue to collect dues from the new homeowner?
Will they offer deals like, "No HOA dues for 5 years"? What if the HOAs can't sell their homes? Will they disband? Why does it seem to me like the government buying troubled assets? Are they going to HELOCs the homes get cash for the association dues?
"I want him to buy me out."
LOL. I'll bet she does. Too late!
On MSNBC, they interviewed a business reporter from US News & World Report. He says, the fact that economists are so gloomy may be good news, because they are so often wrong. Maybe things aren't that bad!
"It will be interesting how local municipalities will react to this, if it violates zoning ordinances."
I know our Town Board doesn't want to TOUCH this item. It was brought up "off-camera" once in regards to a number of Mexicans living in a particular home, and all Hell broke loose just discussing the particulars: #s per bedroom, #s per bathroom, family group limitations, non-familial limitations, home resident certifications, it was part of the "English Only" town law discussion that made this place a laughing-stock amongst "civilized societies" a while back.
Sue- you answered the ? yourself...
GMAC introducing 0% rates a day after bailout is disgusting. The minute they drive off the lot that loan (your tax dollar) is in a losing position
I will get their rate sheet and post when possible..
This is a mockery to all non debt credit junkies/mooches...Fuck GM and Cerebus..
Don't people need higher incomes, rather than more debt?
Sue (Capital S) | 12.30.08 - 12:17 pm | #
Funny i was actually thinking people need to buy fewer cars and hold them longer
My brother's divorce left him stuck with a "dead cow" of a house, in Denver. He's going to try and sell it in the Spring. He knows it's a horrible time to sell, but he doesn't have much choice at this point.
Re: Former Merrill Lynch executive pays 37 million for NYC apartment (with taxpayer money)
Daily Kos: State of the Nation 678437
That story may be wrong, I'll be back!
Getting OT, but anyone care to chat about TBT and timing? It seems that the crowd see's a treasury bubble yet few are actually wading in. I am concerned that treasuries are usually in higher demand as we end the year, for making the books look nicer. Is there not a chance that there is slight sell pressure, or maybe only just no rolling into new maturities as old ones come due, as we cross into 2009. That, and all the usual factors, may not it be the slight push we need to tip the scale?
teat's are open for business!
cd-
What about Ford? Do they get a financing bailout?
Here's my question: doesn't this structure of the bailout (funds to GMAC to enable them to lend more heartily) simply perpetuate the untenable state of affairs where the majority of people's incomes are stagnating or declining while the "financial system" tries to entice them to borrow more? How long can we expect the gasoline windfall to last? Don't people need higher incomes, rather than more debt?
Three questions, three answers.
Yes.
Not long.
No, they need self-discipline to live within means.
Yah, they screwed it up!
vestment advisor Carl Spielvogel and his wife Barbaralee Diamonstein-Spielvogel sold their cooperative apartment at 720 Park Avenue, at the corner of 70th Street, for $36.63 million, nearly twice what they paid for it two years ago.
The sale of the seventh-floor unit closed December 18, according to property records posted Friday.
The buyer was identified as Jill Kraus, wife of Peter Kraus, a former executive vice president at Merrill Lynch who reportedly received a $25 million bonus after working at the firm for three months this year. However, only her name was listed on the property report. He was hired as chairman and CEO of AllianceBernstein on December 19. A Merrill Lynch spokeswoman would not comment on his pay package.
The sellers, who are top Democratic fundraisers, bought the apartment in June 2006 for $20 million, property records show. Earlier reports of the sale estimated the price tag at $37 million.
When the HOA forcloses on their homes; how do they get the dues? Are they going to re-sell these homes to collect dues; and then continue to collect dues from the new homeowner?
YLSP | 12.30.08 - 12:24 pm | #
Yeah, but three years of back dues and presumably liability for back taxes we are still talking low tens of thousands for some pretty expensive houses. They can sell for 10¢ on the dollar and still come out whole. Quite the scam if structured right.
Black Star Ranch, I'm not writing about Mexicans, though. ... I think you're going to see unrelated white, middle-class and (gasp) formerly upper-middle-class families banding together in big houses in the suburbs, trying to ride this thing out. Trying to pool their incomes and just have one mortgage to tackle, so they can stay under a roof in a neighborhood that is still at least somewhat desirable and definitely less scary than "finding an apartment in the city"
Tarp Teats writes:
"Getting OT, but anyone care to chat about TBT and timing?"
What keeps me away from this thesis is the feeling you are betting against the "house". Can't Fed purchase as much as they want to keep yields where they want? Would appreciate hearing from others on this as well.
I guess it would be in the HOA self interest to sell way low to guarantee they get dues paid in time.
Oh wait, this might piss off homeowners as well...
Now, former Goldmanite Peter Kraus is getting his $25 million bonus, according to people familiar with the situation, though he has been at Merrill only three months. Kraus left Merrill Friday, shortly after after his rich exit package was triggered by the Merrill sale. In a year when some bankers are being paid with junk, Krauss exit payment is a stunner that represents to about 0.1% of Bank of Americas $25 billion capital injection from the U.S. government.
Merrill Lynch noted that Kraus isnt an officer and his payments arent a matter of public record, and declined to comment further.
Certainly some HOAs will hold on til the bitter end. .... But many will not be able to survive the strain of foreclosures, vacant properties and even the financial well-being of the HOA families that are still in their homes but can't keep up with all the fees anymore.
Balgame -- I don't think they can be called "libraries" anymore if they go private -- nor "information centers", more appropriate will be "propaganda centers." You can be certain they can burn those books they don't approve of if they are private. I can't see how intelligent people would choose to use them.
City slogan suggestion: "Alpharetta, at least we ain't Peachtree."
Rob Dawg
Here's another:
"If you're white and uptight, Alpharetta is outta sight!"
WILMINGTON, Del. (AP) A federal bankruptcy judge has denied a request by Washington Mutual to keep details of certain asset sales secret. WaMu, which filed for Chapter 11 reorganization in September, wants to sell certain equity holdings and interests in venture capital funds to generate value for the company and its creditors. The Seattle-based thrift, the biggest bank to collapse in U.S. history, was later acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co. for $1.9 billion. Washington Mutual Co.s attorneys have sought permission to redact details of asset purchase prices from sale notices that would be sent to interested parties. WaMu attorney David Berz told Judge Mary Walrath on Tuesday that disclosing pricing details could hurt the value the company might receive and chill future transactions. Berz proposed pricing details be given only to WaMus creditors committee, bondholders and the U.S. trustee.
who will pay to look at old books in an outdated knowledge center?
I just wonder if even the FED is big enough to offset the decrease in recycling of petro $ and Chinese/Asia.
who will pay to look at old books in an outdated knowledge center?
Sounds like another TARP candidate!
.
Black Star Ranch, I'm not writing about Mexicans, though. ... I think you're going to see unrelated white, middle-class and (gasp) formerly upper-middle-class families banding together in big houses in the suburbs, trying to ride this thing out. Trying to pool their incomes and just have one mortgage to tackle, so they can stay under a roof in a neighborhood that is still at least somewhat desirable and definitely less scary than "finding an apartment in the city"
That's Ballgame Comrades | 12.30.08 - 12:29 pm | #
Saw it happen before (70s & 80s)... see it again I'm sure. All that was old will be new again.
FED bet the farm and will soon lose it.
Don't people need higher incomes, rather than more debt?
Sue (Capital S) | 12.30.08 - 12:17 pm |
You innocently tried to apply logic to government. Always a fail.
It's clear we need an Information Center Czar.
Doug Kass:
Sorry to go all OT on ya, but may I take this opportunity to thank the regulars here for both the wit and the wisdom you have provided me over the last year and a half. Dryfly, when my eyes are glazing over, I refocus whenever I see your handle. Others icluding (but not limited to) Rob Dawg, FFDIC, Nemo, Lawyerliz, energyecon, Pavel, ac, Rich, Lefty, Broward, Cobra & CSC have been greatly entertaining and illuminating. Apologies to the many I have left out. Thank you CR for all your efforts, you are invaluable!
Tanta Vive!
Happy New Year!
Peace,
Matty
p.s. Special shoutout to fellow homestaters Crazyvermonter & Vermonttrader.
Wow, here's some true comic relief: Calafia Beach Pundit: No household debt crisis
Thank you, Waffle Eater Jim! I basically agree with you about living within one's means - except that some cannot physically exist on minimum wage or near. For the rest, well, there are many ways to eliminate expenditures. I'd really like to see children's activities dialed down. Children's football is a completely idiotic concept. And it's too expensive a sport for school systems as well. That's only one example.
The RoW (petro/tigers recycling) will not play by the Fed's hoped for plan. Contrary to Ferguson's claim thsi weekend in FT that Chimerica will come together becasue it has too, it will not happen. The RoW would be well advised to throw up fences around its comapnies andput a moratroium on M&A (non-friendly) until the matter of the currency markets is settled. The US on the other hand should be sendiong defcon 5 alerts to its companies - note Berkshitre mention in FT today of $106B cash horde - to buy as much as possible while the dollar is worth somehting. For a picture of what it looks like to be put to sleep mildly pull up a chart of $ / yen since 1985. As long as the medicine is administered slowly, you don't even know you are dying. Slowly anesthetising the patient willalmost certainly meet a fateful end by an unforseen shock.
Drudge says: REPORT: BLAGO TO NAME SENATE REPLACEMENT... DEVELOPING...
Monetary Flat Spin
those MFerS
The Market Ticker
Just when you think it cannot get any worse...
Madoff's firm gets $28.1 M to liquidate
Madoff's firm gets $28.1 M to liquidate (Dealscape - Scandal)
White collar crime ( with get out of jail free cards ) is the new Amerika !
Why Oh Why couldn't my divorce happened this way!
(
put some more salt in the wound why don't you.
LOL
Most likely result, wife keeps the house, husband keeps the mortgaqe...the more things change the more they stay the same.
Interesting thoughts, S. Although i think you mean DEFCON 1, not 5.
Approaching 100% lawyer employment. Never good.
My (ex)wife and I ALMOST bought a house in the Inland Empire in July 06.
At the last minute, my spidey-senses went off and we walked away.
I thank my lucky stars every day that:
a) she's long gone
b) that I did not buy that HOUSE!
dryfly"
Wife was still throwing poo at me 12 years after the divorce and she got a house with lots of equity. I go relief only after they locked her away.
At the moment, I have guy in house who lost job and could not pay rent. So now he fixes up and takes care of house, 22 yo stepson lives at home because of no job, 22 yo son is moving in for same reason and I expect that step daughter and 'husband' will move in also.
You were wondering how those mac mansions were going to get used in the new economy, now you know-informal multi family dwellings.
Drudge says: REPORT: BLAGO TO NAME SENATE REPLACEMENT... DEVELOPING...
That's Ballgame Comrades
Roland Burris was named
Rob Dawg - the original joke was hilarous!
I'm going through a divorce right now myself, though the house was mine before the marriage (and bubble). I'm very fortunate not to be underwater or buying her out.
Fuck the HOAs..petty tyrants, one and all...I lived under one once for about 8 years...quasi-government: all the cons, none of the pros.
This will break the back of the HOAs though...they are toothless contracts without money to pay for those attorneys. The one I suffered under was effectively de-fanged when it went broke. You think the holdouts are really going to cough up a bunch of special assessments to pay for the attorney's fees? They'll revolt after they get hit with one or two special assessments to make up the maintenance budget shortfalls.
Nearly all these HOAs have clauses in their 'constitutions' to allow for self-dissolution, which looks good the minute they become a liability, and not just a means of forcing your neighbor to paint his house a color you like.
km4..Could not believe my own eyes.
Crazy Goverment, drunk on their own power.
OT:
Does anyone have more details on the Proshares capital gains distributions?
I expected to see something in my Scotttrade account today. Would it just show up as "extra cash"?
GMAC introducing 0% rates a day after bailout is disgusting. The minute they drive off the lot that loan (your tax dollar) is in a losing position
It is still more than the Feds are paying for their funds...
Macy’s, Gannett Face Debt Hangover From Past Buybacks
Macy’s, Gannett Face Debt Hangover From Past Buybacks (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Does anyone want to look to see when the execs sold their shares?
AP'Shadow yes indeed...IMO the Bush admin has redefined America as a plutocracy fast lurching towards a kleptocracy.
Assumecrashposition,
Defcon 1, yes
You were wondering how those mac mansions were going to get used in the new economy, now you know-informal multi family dwellings.
Vader | 12.30.08 - 12:48 pm | #
Vader remember when we first postulated that? Back on the UE/IT forum? And everyone thought we were nutz? Even gwb-is-our-master bought into the real estate only goes up meme - remember? Damn that seemed a long time ago but was only what - five or six years ago?
I wonder when the HOAs finally throw in the towel & let them be formally converted into 'multis'. Can't be too far off. Then comes the 'rehab' into apartments like the big urban Victorians in the 1950s & 60s. Shit never changes - just recycles.
YLSP writes:
OT:
Does anyone have more details on the Proshares capital gains distributions?
Got mines today, deposited into core acct.
Roland Burris was named
Anonymous | 12.30.08 - 12:48 pm | #
Did they mention the price? Did it meet beat or fall short of market expectations? [only half snarky]...
It's no longer "cheaper to keep her"
True prenuptial story
She - no money
He - rich
Him - We are going to do a prenuptial.
Her - Is that French for no blow jobs?
No prenup
A kleptocratic ruler ( i.e. Bush and Paulson ) typically treats his country's treasury as though it were his own personal bank account.
Buybacks should be outlawed or put under a strict regulatory regime like a blind trust. Entrusting management to time the market is a sure fire loser. It would be interesting to take the S7P 500 tally up the buybacks over say the past 5 years and see how much money the collective geniuses have destroyed. TARP II
gossip. madeoff with the bacon.
Madoff’s Latest Victims: Kevin Bacon and Kyra Sedgwick -- Daily Intel
Did they mention the price? Did it meet beat or fall short of market expectations? [only half snarky]...
dryfly
No mention of final bid. After news broke, the auction went silent
"Igor writes:
Doug Kass:
Wow, that guy's an idiot. There is only $2.6 trillion of municipal debt outstanding. There is nowhere near that amount borrowed annually. Only a few hundred billion borrowed annually.
No prenup
nova | 12.30.08 - 12:57 pm | #
He deserves to get cleaned out in divorce. If that was all he had in mind he'd be better off 'buying the milk' and not the 'cow'. When men let their dicks think their wallets ALWAYS suffer.
You were wondering how those mac mansions were going to get used in the new economy, now you know-informal multi family dwellings.
Vader | 12.30.08 - 12:48 pm | #
they did something similar in the 50's in LA. Many homes were built or converted into duplexes. I ask why not?
OT:
Does anyone have more details on the Proshares capital gains distributions?
I expected to see something in my Scotttrade account today. Would it just show up as "extra cash"?
YLSP
I had mine show up this morning. My account isn't with Scottrade though.
ova writes:
"True prenuptial story"
Princess meets with matrimonial attorney to help her decide which sugar daddy to marry.
His advice: ask each for their proposed prenup, bring them to me.
She does, he reads, he picks best deal, she marries accordingly.
Is this a great country, or what?
dryfly | 12.30.08 - 1:00 pm |
She had 2 kids right away. He is not getting away without feeling the pain. She will keep the house, and he will pay for it, and pay for it.
...Trying to pool their incomes and just have one mortgage to tackle, so they can stay under a roof in a neighborhood that is still at least somewhat desirable and definitely less scary than "finding an apartment in the city"...
That's Ballgame Comrades
This would be an excellent topic for a Tom Tomorrow cartoon. R. Crumb would probably do it justice as well...
"This will break the back of the HOAs though...they are toothless contracts without money to pay for those attorneys."
The big problem I see with HOAs is that they have the power to make things very expensive for an owner who runs afoul of them. Nothing more awesome than paying dues that fund an attorney whose job it is to harass you and also needing to pay out of pocket for your own attorney to defend against the BS. I had an encounter with my HOA earlier this year about my DirecTV dish. It took 4 letters (including a final one on my firm's letterhead explaining in substantial detail how their position was completely at odds with every FCC OTARD decision ever published) before they admitted they were full of crap and left me alone. Annoying enough to have had to waste my own time dealing with the issue. Had I been forced to pay an attorney to figure the crap out for me, I would have likely given in. In my experience with several HOAs, that's been the SOP: send harassing letters, threaten fines (or legal action that will cause the homeowner to incur big fees), and generally act as though they are the law. My next home purchase decision will be strongly colored by a desire to avoid having to ever deal with an HOA again.
they did something similar in the 50's in LA. Many homes were built or converted into duplexes. I ask why not?
Tim and the American Miracle | 12.30.08 - 1:00 pm | #
The new "modern" floorplans are singularly ill suited to multihousehold reconfiguration. The stickboxes are not durable and their operating costs are way out of line with any potential reuse. I can slap up purpose built multifamily for less than the cost of acquisition and conversion and face none of the wrath of the neighbors or zoning nazis.
dryfly - do you really think they can convert a McMansion made of Tyvek and chicken wire the same way they converted the old victorians?
Rob - didn't you used to have another name, one that was recently referenced by Dr. Krugman?
Rob Dawg writes:
The new "modern" floorplans are singularly ill suited to multihousehold reconfiguration. The stickboxes are not durable and their operating costs are way out of line with any potential reuse. I can slap up purpose built multifamily for less than the cost of acquisition and conversion and face none of the wrath of the neighbors or zoning nazis.
========
Agreed, but people will find a way, even if it's butt-ugly. We're good at adapting.
The big problem I see with HOAs is that they have the power to make things very expensive for an owner who runs afoul of them.
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 1:05 pm | #
ACP get's it - it's not that you can't win [the legal battle] it's that you can't win [come out with any value for trying]. Good point & worth noting. Thx.
Heck, my garage was conveted to an extra room/house. Added drywall and a window. One outlet. Tiled the floor. Instant Asian add-on. They lived there until we bought it.
I think if Austin Powers saw Marci Needle he'd punch her in the face and declare "That's a MAN, baby!"
Why...won't...this...wig...come off!?!
Burris is a pretty good guy ... for a politician.
dryfly writes:
Roland Burris was named
Anonymous | 12.30.08 - 12:48 pm | #
Did they mention the price? Did it meet beat or fall short of market expectations? [only half snarky]...
Rob - didn't you used to have another name, one that was recently referenced by Dr. Krugman?
comrade dope albrt | 12.30.08 - 1:06 pm | #
I doubt Laureate Krugman knows I exist and surely he wouldn't care were I made known to him. That doesn't stop me frrom being extremely critical of his most recent policy suggestions for more spending and government intervention.
He was referencing a line from an old movie.
moneys flinging poo....how right you are!
OT: Hope springs eternal.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN3033992420081230
There's no otherway to explain the market today.
On the subject of buybacks (warning long, and hope table is readable)
From 2004 through the third quarter of 2007, corporate America enjoyed one of the most robust periods of profitability ever. This should have left them in very good shape financially when the downturn occurred. However, this has not been the case. Every time you open the paper it seems like there is another company on the ropes and potentially looking for a bailout. So where did all the money go? Well last week S&P came out with their quarterly tabulation of dividends and share buybacks for S&P 500 firms. Its clear all the money went back to the shareholders in either dividends or share repurchase. Given that dividends cause a taxable event in the year they are paid, but share repurchase payouts are not triggered until the stock is sold, buybacks do have the advantage. Other than that they are economically equivalent. They also prevent dilution from occurring due to lavish stock option awards to executives. Also it is common for executives to be benchmarked by compensation consultants on the basis of EPS growth and ROE. If you shrink the denominator the value goes up. Share buybacks shrink shares outstanding and, unless done at less than book value, also shrink shareholders equity per share.
The third quarter was the sixth straight quarter where cash returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks exceeded operating earnings. Since most extraordinary items are negative items (one time charge offs) operating earnings almost always exceed reported earnings. Thus, the payout on reported earnings is far above 100%. These write-offs, while not indicative of how the company fared during the quarter being reported upon, should not simply be dismissed. Generally they are the corporate worlds equivalent to Miss Emily Latella, Those earnings we reported last year or three years ago, well never mind. Thus over longer periods of time, the reported earnings are more realistic than the operating earnings, even if the operating earnings are a more accurate reflection of corporate health during any given reporting period.
Cash paid to shareholders, either in the form of a dividend check, or in the form of shrinking shares outstanding to help EPS grow, is not cash available to strengthen a balance sheet by paying down debt. It is cash that is not available to put into building new factories, or invest in new more efficient and productive machines. It is cash that is not available to put into R&D to develop new innovative products. Corporations have started to pull back from their share buyback programs (now that stock prices are about 40% off their highs). In the third quarter of 2008, companies shelled out 47.8% less to buy back their own stock than they did in the third quarter of 2007. Dividends were virtually unchanged from a year ago. That is another advantage of buybacks, it is easier to cut back on them quietly than it is to cut dividends. Still, in the third quarter buybacks alone exceeded reported earnings.
It is also noteworthy that two of the top ten firms in total cash spent on buybacks over the last four years were Goldman Sachs (GS) which spent a total of $26.5 billion and Bank of America (BAC) which spent a total of $25.5 billion. Both are still paying common dividends as well, (and billions in bonuses) even as the Federal government pours money in on extremely generous (a.k.a. giveaway) terms to help shore up their balance sheets. General Electric (GE) which recently got a Federal backstop on its debt was also on the list having spent $29.6 billion over the last four years. Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are not on the top ten list.
Table One
S&P 500 Total Earnings, Dividends and Share Buybacks
Qtr\tOp earn\trep earn\tdividends\tbuyback \tDiv + BB\tOp Earn PO\tReported
Earn PO
3Q08\t$142.90\t$86.16\t$61.44\t$89.71\t$151.15\t105.77%\t175.43%
2Q08\t$148.43\t$112.12\t$61.94\t$87.91\t$149.85\t100.96%\t133.65%
1Q08\t$144.63\t$135.24\t$61.72\t$113.90\t$175.62\t121.43%\t129.86%
4Q07\t$133.38\t$68.53\t$67.09\t$141.71\t$208.80\t156.55%\t304.68%
3Q07\t$184.13\t$133.66\t$61.21\t$171.95\t$233.16\t126.63%\t174.44%
2Q07\t$213.65\t$194.30\t$59.76\t$157.76\t$217.52\t101.81%\t111.95%
1Q07\t$200.23\t$190.75\t$58.53\t$117.70\t$176.23\t88.01%\t92.39%
4Q06\t$197.35\t$181.65\t$61.79\t$105.18\t$166.97\t84.61%\t91.92%
3Q06\t$207.22\t$193.19\t$55.07\t$109.81\t$164.88\t79.57%\t85.35%
Totals\t$1,571.92\t$1,295.60\t$548.55\t$1,095.63\t$1,644.18\t104.60%\t126.90%
"No HOA" is prominently mentioned in many Real Estate ads these days...
God Bless DAD
http://www.bustominsk.com/storage/rcrumb.jpg
This would be an excellent topic for a Tom Tomorrow cartoon. R. Crumb would probably do it justice as well...
Doc at the Radar Station | 12.30.08 - 1:05 pm | #
Hey Doc, I miss one of my favorite characters, Mr. White Man. Is he still around anywhere?
Kass is an idiot.
Several months ago he came out and recommended "shorting treasuries with impunity." That was right before treasury yields dropped by more than half.
Kass also chose to short Berkshire rather than the overall market or even the entire financial sector.
Another "smart guy" that is famous for being famous.
dryfly - do you really think they can convert a McMansion made of Tyvek and chicken wire the same way they converted the old victorians? - comrade dope albrt
The new "modern" floorplans are singularly ill suited to multihousehold reconfiguration. The stickboxes are not durable and their operating costs are way out of line with any potential reuse. I can slap up purpose built multifamily for less than the cost of acquisition and conversion and face none of the wrath of the neighbors or zoning nazis. - Dawg
I think Dawg is MOSTLY right... if you are going to try to give everyone in the unit a seperate apartment most Mini-McM's aren't easily chopable [but neither were the Victorians but their purchase price back then was so low the owners didn't mind 'chainsaw surgery' & it paid out off cash-flow-wise. If you've been in some you know - only the original shell remained]... But if the McM's really do go to near zero like Cobra Chris is suggesting is happening along the Florida west coast & I 4 Corridor - then 'yes' these can be chopped and will be. I can only imagine how ugly they will look and how short their remaining lifespan until bulldozed for real 'multifamily'... but not until after their 'intrinsic value' has been completely mined out.
gossip. madeoff with the bacon.
And another Hollyweird type who lost big was the guy who wrote Forrest Gump, etc. It seems somehow right that people who live from doing next to nothing, like actors, should take a hit. If you think it takes a lot of saavy to be an actor, just remember that Shirley Temple was doing it all when she was four.
Houses still have more value than spouses. At least you can sell one - even if for a loss, more than I can say for a spouse.
dope albrt, maybe you're thinking of the <a href=http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/contributor/1809695532">other one, who performed "Come Wit De Reggae Music" for the film "Phat Girlz".
Come to think of it, maybe that is the same guy as our Rob Dawg.
Anonymous writes:
Kass is an idiot.
Good to hear neg feedback about Kass. He said some other things that make my portfolio nervous
How history repeats itself. Many Victorian McMansions from the turn of the century in many large urban cities were split up into apartments and multi family dwellings after economic downturns in 1873 and so o
Is that Mafia, Russian oligarchs, drug cartels=Madoff a joke? Hub & I put on our tinfoils and were kiddin' around just after the Madoff scandal broke, fantasizing that maybe he was laundering Russian mafia money through naked shorts. Sounds like someone else was on the same wavelength.
Re: Privatizing libraries. So, it'll cost ya now to read books. Joins the backend of free TeeVee & radio.
Culture is morphing as we speak. Story sounds like a Dr. Phil TV moment to me.
Thought there might be a comeback of the Depression-era (and earlier bad times) boarding house.
Dryfly,
Agreed there's no real estate defect so terrible it cannot be fixed by price. Excepting perhaps taxes.
How history repeats itself. Many Victorian McMansions from the turn of the century in many large urban cities were split up into apartments and multi family dwellings after economic downturns in 1873 and so on
megamike | 12.30.08 - 1:21 pm | #
You just defined Worcester Massachusetts.
Unlike the Victorians, McMansions that get used hard by multiple families at once will be ready for the bulldozer in 20-25 years, or less. They won't be worth putting a penny of fix-up costs in.
But that's the next generation's problem.
Invest in bulldozers.
Intrade latest: (Probably won't paste well)
Market
Probability
1
GM to announce a merger with another major auto manufacturer
35%
2
More than US$25 billion to be injected into the big 3 auto-makers
60%
3
Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton in the US Senate
53%
4
Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp to be closed in 2009
84%
5
The US in Recession in 2009
85%
6
An air strike against Iran before end of 2009
21%
7
US unemployment rate at or above 8% in December 2009
50%
8
Robert Mugabe to depart as President of Zimbabwe in 2009
50%
9
Slumdog Millionaire to win Academy Award for Best Picture
52%
Heh, this is where my (soon to be ex)-wife and I are, due to all the foreclosures in our neighborhood prices have dropped 60-80% from 260-280's to 80-100's, with some as low as 50K. Never expected it to stay in the upper 200's, but didn't expect this far.
Thankfully we're both being mature and not out to screw the other. I can afford the payments (but not if we need to refinance) so we're going to take 3 years and if the market hasn't improved I'll buy her out for some pittance and worry about it then.
Thankfully we're both being mature and not out to screw the other.
Once Young and Stupid | 12.30.08 - 1:24 pm | #
Not trying to rub salt just pointing out the pun. Very good.
I've never understood the hatred against prenupts. All you're doing is agreeing on what you both think is a fair way to split up while you're both still being nice to each other. By the time the marriage is dissolving, one's emotions will cloud what one thinks is fair, and suddenly someone making 200k a year with a stay-at-home spouse will think that it's fair to dump the spouse with no work experience and no job with no money and no house. How's one supposed to make an attempt at life. Similarly, if one has nothing going into a marriage with someone who has a great amount of assets, it's rather unfair for one to try to lay claim to everything before, rather than to only future joint assets.
And I say this as one who signed a prenupt when I had nothing besides personal possessions and my wife had a house in the free and clear. Having known several people who've had divorces, even if both spouses are on an equal footing, a prenupt makes just as much sense as getting everything in writing while undergoing a divorce*.
The big problem I see with HOAs is that they have the power to make things very expensive for an owner who runs afoul of them.
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 1:05 pm | #
ACP get's it - it's not that you can't win [the legal battle] it's that you can't win [come out with any value for trying]. Good point & worth noting. Thx.
Thankfully, I found this out before buying any home. Years ago, I worked for an insulation company. We landed a contract with a HOA to increase all their attic insulation on all their properties. We had to go into one unit to get into the attic and the owner of that unit was extremely PO'd that a) he discovered he had no right to keep us out of "his home" if that was the way we had to use to enter the attic, and b) he now knew his "ownership" of his home ended at the inside surface of the interior paint. Everything else on the property belonged to the HOA.
I knew then that whatever benefits might come from living in a HOA, the liabilities outweighed them.
But then, I also thought living 5 miles out of town would insulate me from annoying town ordinances. Urban creep is now about 50 feet away...
Not trying to rub salt just pointing out the pun. Very good.
dryfly | 12.30.08 - 1:27 pm | #
Chuckle Okay, I only wish that had been an intentional pun.
Hey Doc, I miss one of my favorite characters, Mr. White Man. Is he still around anywhere?
trader walt | 12.30.08 - 1:17 pm
I looked and looked. The best I could find is a small jpg of one cover.
http://recollectionbooks.com/bleed/images/BB/whiteman.jpg
US unemployment rate at or above 8% in December 2009
50%
Anonymous | 12.30.08 - 1:24 pm | #
---
I'll take the over on that bet, but I'm also betting that the unemployment rate will be gamed as much as possible.
How that isn't more than 50% makes me wonder how they will measure it.
Unlike the Victorians, McMansions that get used hard by multiple families at once will be ready for the bulldozer in 20-25 years, or less. They won't be worth putting a penny of fix-up costs in.
That's Ballgame Comrades | 12.30.08 - 1:24 pm | #
Depends on how it is done - while modern build is cheap - it is also 'disposable'... cut and paste rework carpentry might work better in some of these new el cheapos than trying to cut up the structurally more sound Vic's - the new builds are almost like 'balloons' w/ the bulk of their structurals on the outer walls - Vics have pretty rigid internal structure - when they go you got problems - I know my home although not a Vic was built in 1915 and has central 'column' settling that is near impossible to fix w/out dynamite. Newer mass builds generally don't do that - they are shell support outside then almost like 'office cubicles' inside.
I got the cash 5 years ago put it in Cd's, he kept the house and married his Malibu Barbie, he borrowed on the house so he could get another one at the beach to please now pregnant Barbie... Now the house is worth 30% less, heloc gone, beach house in Ventura 75% down and Barbie is not happy.
La vengeance est un plat qui se mange froid.
Revenge is a dish that is delicious when cold.
I am now sunning myself on my golf course townhouse bought 75% off. I am one happy old cow. Let him push that stroller, at 55 it's a good exercise.
None of the work that gets done inside McMansions in order to accommodate multiple families will be subtle or attractive. ... It will be makeshift, random and cheaply done. ... The whole point is that nobody has money. ... If there was money to do a proper interior reworking of a McMansion to accommodate two families, there were be no need to do such!
It's the future renovators who will have to decide whether to fix up the battered, carved up McMansions, or just nuke 'em.
"Though the services would vary from branch to branch, Nutter said the centers would likely retain book collections, computers, and perhaps even trained librarians."
The Dark Ages recommence.
Why are all of you getting divorced so readily? As a single male, I would think getting married would be a good thing. In addition to regular access to sex, I would think the lifelong companionship would be a great boon, particularly for the hard times such as this. Perhaps it's because I'm young and have never been married but I just don't understand how two people in love can turn so acrimonious so quickly and why people do not put more of an effort to work things out.
I think we've identified a new use for all those empty ocean going cargo containers stacking up in Long Beach.
That was pretty funny "I can haz..."
As a single male, I would think getting married would be a good thing. In addition to regular access to sex
Ha!Ha! ROTFLMAO
Rob Dawg writes:
I think we've identified a new use for all those empty ocean going cargo containers stacking up in Long Beach.
====
Stuff 'em full of HOA laywers?
Why is divorce so expensive?
because it's worth it.
Actually, the movement to group homes had already begun before the crash. Current hardship will propel it forward. Just Google "intentional communities."
Sign of the times!
I wasn't joking ballgame. My parents have been happily married for nearly twenty five years and I've never seen my father raise his voice to my mother once nor vice-versa (well except for the occasional nagging).
I posted this late yesterday:
An interesting piece of data from the GD1:
Peak-to-Trough Decline in Industrial Production in Various Countries
(Annual Data)
Country Decline
Unites States 46.8 %
Great Britain 16.2 %
Germany 41.8 %
France 31.3 %
Canada 42.4 %
Czechoslovakia 40.4 %
Italy 33.0 %
Belgium 30.6 %
Netherlands 37.4 %
Sweden 10.3 %
Denmark 16.5 %
Poland 46.6 %
Argentina 17.0 %
Brazil 7.0 %
Japan 8.5 %
Now look at this graph of Japan industrial production via Across the Curve.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_8rpY5fQK-UQ/SVZ1Z1utSZI/AAAAAAAAFVM/YDZzIm5g80A/s1600-h/japan.png
Now the house is worth 30% less, heloc gone, beach house in Ventura 75% down and Barbie is not happy.
La vengeance est un plat qui se mange froid.
cremebrulee | 12.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #
Good for you but I think you exagerate a bit about Ventura beach house prices. Maybe 20% so far.
Why are all of you getting divorced so readily? As a single male, I would think getting married would be a good thing. In addition to regular access to sex, I would think the lifelong companionship would be a great boon, particularly for the hard times such as this. Perhaps it's because I'm young and have never been married but I just don't understand how two people in love can turn so acrimonious so quickly and why people do not put more of an effort to work things out.
I can haz bailouts? | 12.30.08 - 1:39 pm | #
Despite the commercials, love is rarely forever. Furthermore, while both have to agree to get married, eithone can decide to devorce, and the other basically has no say in the matter. Also, all that stuff you read in HS about equal protection under the law does not apply in the kangaroo courts that handle these matters. Divorce if you dont have kids is not that big a deal, but as soon as you have kids it is a huge mess, and if you are a guy, you WILL get screwed. "Free sex" is always more expensive than the sex you pay for, with the possible exception of Elliot Spitzer.
Having given the taxpayer's money to GM, how can Treasury say no to Delphi?
General Motors May Get Delphi Rescue in Bailout, JPMorgan Says
GM May Get Delphi Rescue in Bailout, JPMorgan Says (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp.s bailout from the U.S. Treasury, including billions of dollars committed to the automaker and its financing arm, has analysts predicting its bankrupt former parts unit, Delphi Corp., might get the same.
I am not sure if Goodyear is next, but I do think airlines must be pretty pissed they have not gotten anything from the government yet.
I can haz bailouts? writes:
\tWhy are all of you getting divorced so readily? As a single male, I would think getting married would be a good thing. In addition to regular access to sex, I would think the lifelong companionship would be a great boon, particularly for the hard times such as this. Perhaps it's because I'm young and have never been married but I just don't understand how two people in love can turn so acrimonious so quickly and why people do not put more of an effort to work things out.
\t I can haz bailouts? | \t \t \t \t12.30.08 - 1:39 pm | #
----
O-M-F-G. No, seriously OMFG.
1) The "regular access to sex" makes me think of the joke "Marrying for sex is like buying a 747 for a bag of peanuts". Also, there is nothing "regular" about access to sex in a marriage...
2) It could be a possible life-long companion or it could be a life-long albatross.
I'd go on, but can haz had to be joking. I just have missed it.
FD: I'm a single person, never married. I do work in a "family law" law firm so I have some professional experience in this arena.
I don't think Can Haz was joking. He said he was never married. It's a case of the grass is always greener...
I thought it was amazing how screwed that guy who went on the Xmas rampage got in divorce (not saying it for justification, I was just amazed and how one sided it appeared to be). They weren't married very long, she gets money and his dog but he gets to keep the $150,000 underwater house. I can't imagine how bad the courts would have treated the guy if they actually had a kid together. The mom gets the kid by default and the dad gets to pay for it by default.
Assume Crash Positions;
I sued my HOA in small claims court three times within a year...once over a insurance claim deficiency on property damage, two times for withholding copies of checks issued/bills paid to whom...I received a tie on fourth suit, wherein I attempted to sue the board members individually...without prestigious...
Board members know absolutely nothing about the law...same goes for the management company...The lawyers are third rate and file to merely intimidate. On my first suit in small claims the HOA didn't show it...I won by default...An attorney filed for an appeal after the deadline...falsified record of appointment of the attorney...signed after deadline, but submitted it as valid...she claimed they never received court notice of hearing date...that her husband was in the hospital for cancer treatment, yada, yada, yada...
I provided the Judge evidence of notification and falsification of records...
After I won the appeal and got the max., ie $5,000...I filed a claim against the Judge at CA justice for judical performance, the attorney to the local bar and the HOA/mgt co. to the FBI...
The HOA and the mgt co. now leave me completely alone...
"My parents have been happily married for nearly twenty five years"
"I do work in a "family law" law firm"
YMMV
The Dark Ages recommence.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #
Yup. They should have looked to see if the Benedictines would take them over.
Haz - not to jump on the bandwagon here.. but your post reminded me of a very old (semi-lame) joke.
Q: how do you stop a woman (or man) from having sex..
A. You marry them
Me? Married once - it all changed post wedding. Spent 10 years 'trying to make it work' - only to lose it all in the divorce. Life is good now though.
OT: Why get divorced? Because in time priorities change, or they don't. Wife wasn't ready at 21 to start a family, at 22, I wasn't either, but I wanted one. Was willing to wait till I was 30, and well my 30th birthday comes July 2009. She's even more anti-child then she was then. There's some related garbage, such as my wanting to settle down and her having wanderlust to see the next horizon and have adventures. No one's fault, we made predictions and plans based on the best information we had at the time, it just turned out to be a wrong decision. I don't regret it, but the timing could be better.
Well, duh. Divorces are harder on the lawyers. Give me a break.
Don't they still fight about the pets, and children (hard to differentiate at times)?
Well, we know that marriage is sacred, so depression of the economy is worth preserving those loveless marriages. God wants them to be miserable!
anony17 writes:
"I've never understood the hatred against prenupts."
I'm a believer.
cremebrulee, terrific handle. Thanks for sharing.
j marston writes:
\tYMMV
\t j marston | \t \t \t \t12.30.08 - 1:51 pm | #
----
My parents are at 31 years in their marriage, and they are basically the only people in their social/peer group that have never been divorced.
I've handled cases where the couple got married on a Labor Day, saw each other for 2 months, and then decided to call it quits.
It is "YMMV".
ymmv??
I got the cash 5 years ago put it in Cd's, he kept the house and married his Malibu Barbie...
I am now sunning myself on my golf course townhouse bought 75% off. I am one happy old cow. Let him push that stroller, at 55 it's a good exercise.
cremebrulee | 12.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #
With those 'credentials' - you'll get asked out on dates around this place. Might need a fatter little black book.
The conclusion of that Great Depression PDF is a riot:
Keyness theory
suggested that increases in government spending, tax cuts, and monetary expansion could be
used to counteract depressions. This insight, combined with a growing consensus that
government should try to stabilize employment, has led to much more activist policy since the
1930s. Legislatures and central banks throughout the world now routinely attempt to prevent or
moderate recessions. Whether such a change would have occurred without the Depression is
again a largely unanswerable question. What is clear is that this change has made it unlikely that
a decline in spending will ever be allowed to multiply and spread throughout the world as it did
during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Because the mistake all governments have made in the past is that they didn't encourage enough spending. Nobody would have thought to try that before.
...intended to mean "your mileage may vary"
Both of you make good points. If you are close to a couple (parents, relatives) that have made it work for the long haul, it can be an inspiration. If, on the other hand, you have been divorced or have helped a family through a divorce (as a friend or lawyer, etc.), it becomes clear that sometimes couples just aren't meant to stay together. YMMV.
None of the work that gets done inside McMansions in order to accommodate multiple families will be subtle or attractive. ... It will be makeshift, random and cheaply done. ... The whole point is that nobody has money. ... If there was money to do a proper interior reworking of a McMansion to accommodate two families, there were be no need to do such!
That's Ballgame Comrades | 12.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #
Exactly - when there is no money and they are bought cheap - who cares if they are attractive. Again - look inside the old retrofit Victorians - gives definition to the word 'wood butcher'.
dryfly writes:
"Might need a fatter little black book."
There's a big market here for happy old cows?
You just defined Worcester Massachusetts.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 1:23 pm | #
thats all i could think about, LOL! those things were built like sh*t brick houses....
................
I can haz bailouts: I can't speak much for divorces: I survived my first wife, and don't plan on leaving my 2nd. With the prenupt in place, there's pain for both of us if it ends (and now with kids who'd feel way more pain than either of us that's a good thing). My wife divorced her first hubby, but he was an ass (I lived with them for a few months). He wanted to be married; he didn't want to be married to her. He was happy to go to work, come home, play on the computer until she'd been in bed for an hour and then quietly go to sleep. He was glad when I was around; I'd keep her out of his hair (/me rolls his eyes).
As for why a lot of other people are getting divorced, I think because primarily two factors. 1) they have some fantasy of what marriage is (sex whenever you want it? Yeah right. You know that you can rape your spouse, right? S/He is under no obligation to even give you a hand job just because you're in the mood) and 2) they have no social structure to make them work to stay together.
1) many people think that their spouse will magically change in some ways, and never change in others. They'll give up their annoying habits; drop their friends to shower attention on you. The reality is that a lot of habits won't change, so how about living together (in someplace rented) for a year before marriage? If s/he expects you to make dinner all the time, s/he will still expect that while married. if s/he complains about X, s/he will still do so. if s/he spends 40 hours a week playing WoW, s/he will still expect to spend 40 hours a week playing WoW. This is where my wife made her mistake with her first husband. Thinking that marriage would change a relationship that wasn't too great.
Similarly, one's sex life will eb and flow. When my current wife and I got together it wasn't a question of if we'd have sex, but how many times that day. Would I wear her out, or would she wear me out? Sometimes we've gone up to a month or so without sex, but we still come around (pun not intended too much) and start having daily sex again.
Kids. Many people get married wtihout a shared understanding of when/how many/if they want kids. ?!?! That's fucking ridiculous. Seriously, there should be some questions to get a marriage license, and number one will be about kids. Speaking of kids (and pets) when you've got one kid screaming that you're both the worst parents ever for handing out consequences for bad actions, one of you is cleaning dog barf out of the carpet, and the other is cleaning up another kid who wet his pants, that's when you really know that marriage isn't just fantasy ... unless you're a really, really sick person.
2) I don't think that marriage should be an unendable event. I don't think that one should get a scarlet letter D to wear for the rest of their life, or a tattoo on their forheads. But at the same point, how many people get divorced without a consideration or attempt at couple's counselling? My wife had to fight to get her husband into couple's counselling twice; he'd pay lip service, and continue doing what he was doing. The other couples that we've known to divorce didn't do any couple's counselling. Also the single parent is now so common that most people don't give the slightest consideration to what will happen to their kids.
But a part of this is marriage is work. You have to keep talking with the other person. Find out the subtle ways that they've changed since you met them. Look for how you've changed, and try and plot how the two of you want to continue to change. You have to not do/say stupid things during arguments. You have to make concessions at times. It's not all glamour.
And a lot of people only want to consider glamour, and they're raised to believe that they're special little snow flakes who deserve no less.
The HOA and the mgt co. now leave me completely alone...
Anonymous | 12.30.08 - 1:51 pm |
Bravo. If more people had the time and determination to smack the HOA bullies in the nose a bit more often, maybe they wouldn't be so cavalier about their petty little power trips. Your comment about them not knowing the law completely rings true. I was stunned at the level of arrogance and ignorance. Not only did they not have a clue regarding the FCC regs, their first two letters and even their comments at the board meeting I attended indicated that they hadn't even read the dish installation policy that was clearly and simply stated in the CC&Rs (and which I had fully complied with in the first place).
Jackasses.
RE @ 1:46
Are you making the point that, assuming Japan has already suffered the same decline as in GD1, we can expect even greater declines (than 46%) in U.S. this time around?
Striking, and thanks for reposting.
You just defined Worcester Massachusetts.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 1:23 pm | #
thats all i could think about, LOL! those things were built like sh*t brick houses....
nades | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 2:04 pm | #
Want some? I'm sure my family could give you a volume discount.
OT: Since the Fed has expanded its balance sheet to over 2 Trillion of crap already, why can't it just buy up every bad debt in the system and eat them all?
That would be the TARP writ large and the Fed can create as much money as it wants. Debts forgiven, every goes back to the party, no?
"The Dark Ages recommence.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.30.08 - 1:38 pm | #
Yup. They should have looked to see if the Benedictines would take them over."
I had the same thought - though no specific order in mind.
My contact with a small New England college will remind them of an archive next month.
Preservation and memory may become even more important in the next years.
My wife has been building an archive of family documents and artifacts for some years now. Branches of her family go back to pre-revolutionary times on this continent, but there is also much from the 19th century onward, including old photographs.
It's important to preserve all of these precious things, in any form they exist, including oral memory preserved electronically.
People should be encouraged to recover and record their roots.
Proper libraries are much more important to a civilization than stock exchanges.
Will no longer be under the purview of the tree-huggin' loonie lefties.
Intential Communities
o way!
I use to live in one that had windows that were 10x my age and didnt keep out the drafts. good lord it was cold.... and those damn radiators..... i'm happy to live in a place that doesnt have a heater... infact i havent used one in 5 years... 
anony17 | 12.30.08 - 2:06 pm
I'll chime in with a "yep, yep."
My thoughts on marriage (and for that matter life in general) can be summed up in a bumper sticker:
Resentment is the gap between expectations and reality.
This poor guy Jobs, and rumors on his health.
As if he were the only creative force at the co.
There is a joke making the rounds in the investment community that seems in keeping with this thread (apologies to the ladies):
Investor A: This market is worse than a divorce.
Investor B: How's that?
Investor A: I've lost half my net worth but I'm still married!
--
Q1: Did evildoers Greenspan, Bush and Bernanke knew the cost of their hunger for power at any cost? (Housing Bubble wouldnt have been possible without that).
Q2: What sort of system elevates the evildoers to the most powerful positions?
Q3: What if only evildoers, or trustworthy slaves of Crooks with behind-the-scenes power, could get to the positions of the highest power?
Q4: If the above were to be the case, what solutions are practical?
Jas
no way!
I use to live in one that had windows that were 10x my age and didnt keep out the drafts. good lord it was cold.... and those damn radiators..... i'm happy to live in a place that doesnt have a heater... infact i havent used one in 5 years... 
\t
nades | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 2:11 pm | #
Ahhh a fellow satisfied customer. March 31st, 1983. The snowstorm. Why I live in SoCal today.
Will try again...
Intentional Communities
Biggest mistake women make: I can change him. What's that old joke about trying the teach a pig to dance?
Denninger is on a tear today
:
GMAC reduced the credit score necessary to get a loan from 700 (very good) to 621 (not very good.)
GMAC turns around and loans out money at 0% which it has to pay 8% to acquire, and at the same time decides that it will make loans to people with credit scores significantly worse than average, when before they would make loans only to people with scores that were slightly better than average.
"The company said it wont finance higher-risk transactions, instead concentrating on prime customers who are more likely to repay using responsible credit standards. The relaxed policy will allow us to return to more normal levels of financing volume, and should help in efforts to stabilize the U.S. auto industry, GMAC President Bill Muir said in todays statement."
Assume Crash Positions,
with regard to HOA, the management co was the instigator of all our problems...They seem to think that because they read a reg in some flyer or told to them repeated by mgt co. that they are immune to a suit by a homeowner for their actions...they can do anything they want with impunity...
When I sued the former and current board member, they saw the error of their ways...The case was closed without prestigious, which If I had wanted, I could refile the case...wasn't necessary, I made my point...
They were not immune to being dragged in front of a judge to explain their actions.
PS: I was a former board member, and did my research and my own filing...
Senate Dem leaders (LOL) say Blago's pick Burris won't be seatede
There's a big market here for happy old cows?
Comrade V | 12.30.08 - 2:04 pm | #
Frugal, financially independent & savvy investor old cows? My guess is 'yes' there would be a market for that... but it's probably like the joke about 'personals' here in Minnesota: SM looking for SF with fishing boat for long lasting relationship. Please send picture of boat.
Except in this case it would be 'please send copies of prospectus'...
Anonymous: um, by prestigious I think that you mean "prejudice" ... usually legal terms are important to know while doing one's own legal work.
"anony17 writes:
I've never understood the hatred against prenupts. All you're doing is agreeing on what you both think is a fair way to split up while you're both still being nice to each other."
They're okay if you're equals financially. But when one side's negotiating from a position of strength, they can be used as a weapon if/when the relationship goes south. Even if the person using it is responsible for the sh*t happening.
My mom remarried in her 70s to an 82-year-old guy who insisted on a rather severe prenup; Mom didn't care for it, but I told her to take it. They were both old, both had assets, it's understandable he'd want to conserve his for his heirs. They split expenses down the middle.
As it turned out, Mom died first, and her widower whined endlessly about the conditions of the prenup he had structured, and tried to get out of them. Y'see, he'd expected to die first. Sanctimonious bastard.
Preservation and memory may become even more important in the next years.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.30.08 - 2:08 pm | #
My sister, a one time lawyer now historian agrees - it will be a huge challenge considering how fast modern materials [especially digital] deteriorate.
® writes:
I thought it was amazing how screwed that guy who went on the Xmas rampage got in divorce (not saying it for justification, I was just amazed and how one sided it appeared to be)
I was amazed he didn't go for the lawyers and judge first.
You were wondering how those mac mansions were going to get used in the new economy, now you know-informal multi family dwellings.
Vader
The old boarding house is the new multi-family dwelling.
Do they cook communally too?
"Proper libraries are much more important to a civilization than stock exchanges."
Of course. What's terrifying is that we have to even say that.
Are you making the point that, assuming Japan has already suffered the same decline as in GD1, we can expect even greater declines (than 46%) in U.S. this time around?
Comrade V | 12.30.08 - 2:07 pm | #
V,
Japan was far less export dependent during GD1 so it got hit a lot less. However, this time around it is extremely export dependent and already got hit twice as hard in just a few months. This could be quite a bad omen.
I'm also struck with the thought that industrial production declines might not be as representative as some people hope for economic health. Just because manufacturing intensive economies experience greater drops because of exaggerated drops in power generation does not necessarily mean that the population isn't hit as hard. This might be especially true of the U.S. as there has never been a society as consumption oriented as this one in history.
The unfunny thing about any mcmansion built in the last 10 years is the poor construction materials and shoddy construction standards.
The irony with the housing boom and heloc abuse is the money being lent on homes engineered to fail. More form over substance revealed about the formerly great USA.
I keep searching for some aspect of our society that still holds true to fundamental beliefs of truth, integrity, and hard work. Feeling a little hopeless in identifying anything I can point too and say "there is the reason we'll persevere and prosper."
anony1,
Thanks...I knew it looked incorrect, however I thought this audience would cut me some slack...
PS: not a lawyer...
More on the GM 'humility'...
GM sees boost from GMAC bailout, easier credit
| Reuters
Just love it when my tax dollars are given out free and clear to sell cheap, crappy cars.
"The old boarding house is the new multi-family dwelling.
Do they cook communally too?
JimPortlandOR | 12.30.08 - 2:23 pm | # "
Stew for 10 is much more cost-effective that stew for 2. I know several widows who've rented rooms over the years for extra income. Cooking for them is just one extra step.
A prenuptial agreement should be a requirement for a marriage license. It would prevent many sour marriages from happening to begin with.
"A prenuptial agreement should be a requirement for a marriage license. It would prevent many sour marriages from happening to begin with."
Or at least make them less costly to sort out when they crater.
Haz/// Been married to same man 44 years....Have had a wonderful life.
Married life is JUST what you won't to make it out to be. Best Wishes..
We did produce two of what Jas called American Bred Dopes..No hope for them.
The entire economy is collapsing because of poor lending standards. The auto companies are going under, because they lent to irresponsible borrowers.
What does GMAC do?
Lower lending standards of course. With our money. At a loss.
Genius - pure genius.
LOL! Oct 31st 2003 -- god bless this place!
@yagij | 12.30.08 - 1:57 pm
I spend too much time worrying about the clarity of my posts and not enough time on reading comprehension, evidently. Between your comment and the one just below it, I thought I had the acronym wrong, hence my explanation.
Meanwhile, really OT, can anyone tell me what "FB" stands for? I've read it here a number of times but don't quite get it.
" Speed writes:
A prenuptial agreement should be a requirement for a marriage license. It would prevent many sour marriages from happening to begin with.
Speed | 12.30.08 - 2:26 pm | # "
Have to disagree. A lawyer once described marriage to me as a package of rights and responsibilities; an agreement in its own right.
If the agreement doesn't work for you -- might be better just not to get married. Form some other agreement.
prenuptial agreements are unimportant when you are young,nothing of value and intend on a family...Can't see how its of value for the young and poor...Now, if you are older, no more children, then it would serve a worth while purpose, however watch out if one of the parties gets a life insurance policy on the other with a large payout...That next cruse may have only one of the two returning...
CR: OT but may be of interest...anyone interested in Canyon de Chelly and Colorado Plateau should find the book "House of Rain". I don't recall the author right this second, but it is a very informative and readable account of current archaelogical/anthropological thinking on what happened to Anasazi and why they built their structures the way they did. It's kind of a travel memoir/cultural analysis. Highly recommended.
Of course, divorce lawyers are not likely to be in favor of prenuptial agreements. Too much money to be made without them.
A prenuptial agreement should be a requirement for a marriage license. It would prevent many sour marriages from happening to begin with.
Speed | 12.30.08 - 2:26 pm | #
Any contract can be broken given enough incentive [if the couple has resources worth fighting over]. Prenups only work if they are 'generous' to both sides and the parties are reasonable. Usually prenups are drawn up to protect the asymmetrical asset distribution... THAT is a formula for future litigation [you want this settled quickly, cleanly & quietly - then pay me].
There really are no completely safe harbors in a divorce.
Pavel: My family, too, is an old one. Back to the founding of Va. I've been running hard paper copies of everything I've found. I make copies & send them to interested relatives, so if mine disappear, they have their copies.
I tell them that while they may not care about it, they may later have a grandchild who does. Keep it for them.
For now, I'm the record keeper for the whole family.
dryfly writes:
"Frugal, financially independent & savvy investor old cows?"
Can they be rated? A+ or better, only. Thanks.
in Slovakia, what you earned before marriage is completely yours and the wife/husband gets only 50% of what is earned together during the marriage itself. also gifts and inheritance during marriage belong only to the one who receives them and inherits them.
well the liberals managed to get this 24 hours period during which the husband can be forbidden to live in his house if women threw herself to glass, but thats all the feminists could achieve ...
Citizen Jacked wrote: "I keep searching for some aspect of our society that still holds true to fundamental beliefs of truth, integrity, and hard work. Feeling a little hopeless in identifying anything I can point too and say "there is the reason we'll persevere and prosper." "
Teachers? Family farmers? Handyman contractors?
American houses are so wasteful. We should try more communal living, with common cooking areas, at least. Why does every house need a kitchen worth thousands of dollars, if it is only used two or three times a day? Four ovens and eight stove tops might be enough for twelve familes. Bathrooms are something else that could be considered.
RE writes:
"I'm also struck with the thought that industrial production declines might not be as representative as some people hope for economic health."
While some might believe decline in industrial capacity rebalances excess supply, I don't see how you ignore the economic impact of idling all those resources. The latter has to be more destructive than former. At least in near term.
A couple of thoughts on the McMansion- most of them look perfect for about five people to live in an assisted living situation here in Phoenix, with a caretaker couple living in the guesthouse.
As for divorce, what I tell younger folks these days is move in together, then get married when you decide it will last for five years. Kids cost big time. Remember that- big time!!!
Unequal marriages almost never last. The controller (usually the guy), who makes all the money marries the waitress(Or replace this with doc and nurse, dentist and hygenist). Couple of kids, huge investment in (now dead) residential real estate. Guy buys sports car and finds new bimbo to do it all over again. Gee, big surprise. Lather, rinse, repeat. The amazing part is the next wife is usually a younger carbon copy of the last- and resents the resources used for the first family!
What amazes me is the sense of entitlement to a lifestyle. On both sides!!! I believe in buying stuff as a result of the big three D's- death, divorce, and destitution.
I have very little sympathy in most divorces, while the laws are biased against men, the truth is a vicious spouse will make a lot of misery.
A very good friend ended up raising two daughters after wife walked out on him. She still owes 50K in back child support- the kids are now grown and gone. No wedding invite for her. No grandparent time for her, no nothing from those two girls.
I talked with the younger one a while ago- her resentment is still quite fresh- and I doubt it will ever fade.
I totally agree with the Snowflake comment up above, people are so damned shallow. They get what they deserve. Money is just money, go make more of it. As for relationships, they are what make your life, well, yours.
Someday this war's gonna end...
reptillian writes: "Why does every house need a kitchen worth thousands of dollars, if it is only used two or three times a day?"
Way less than that, considering how much Americans dine out.
dryfly writes:
"Any contract can be broken given enough incentive"
Every contract should be viewed as the starting place for the next negotiation.
I just don't understand how two people in love can turn so acrimonious so quickly and why people do not put more of an effort to work things out.
I can haz bailouts?
I suggest you give an attorney a power of attorney to approve/disapprove of a proposed marriage. You're not ready for that decision.
50% of marriages fail.
Also: see the movie "War of the Roses" (Michael Douglas, Kathleen Turner, Danny DeVito)
WASHINGTON (AP) The Government Accountability Office says federal contract protests by U.S. businesses hit a 10-year high in 2008 and increased 17 percent from last year. The GAO says companies filed more than 1,600 protests with federal auditors in 2008. Thats up from more than 1,400 last year and the highest level since 1998. Very few errors were found in the governments decisions, but at least three major Pentagon programs worth a combined $70 billion were delayed this year due to protests filed by Boeing Co., Lockheed Martin Corp., Northrop Grumman Corp. and others.
ECONOMY BOOST!!
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) Stocking up on aspirin by Wednesday night will do more than blunt a New Years Day hangover for many people across the country. Purchases like that also help employees who hold health Flexible Spending Accounts whittle their balances before 2008 ends and, in many cases, they forfeit their money. Benefits experts say there are several last-minute ways to use leftover money in these accounts. FSAs give consumers possible tax savings by letting them use money from payroll deductions on certain health-related expenses. People with accounts that must be used by Dec. 31 have no time to schedule a medical procedure. Even squeezing in an eye exam may prove impossible, so its time to start thinking about the small items. Band-Aids, cough syrup, laxatives and even condoms are all eligible for flex spending dollars.
how two people in love can turn so acrimonious so quickly
Passion isn't relegated to love.
While some might believe decline in industrial capacity rebalances excess supply, I don't see how you ignore the economic impact of idling all those resources. The latter has to be more destructive than former. At least in near term.
Comrade V | 12.30.08 - 2:41 pm | #
Have a look at this link. Especially the yellow table.
... But, the important question is why production had fallen off so much in 1933 compared with 1929. Here it is instructive to look at the components of the demand for the nation's output. The output of any nation is purchased by four categories of buyers; consumers, business investors, governments and foreign buyers as exports. The purchases of U.S. output by foreign buyers is offset by American purchases of foreign production as imports. A glance at the table below tells what was happening to the components of demand. ...
I am actually in the process of trying to find nominal GDP data for the U.K. for the period. I'd like to compare U.S. and U.K. data in terms of nominal GDP because the difference in the fall of industrial production between the two countries is so pronounced in GD1. Any links would be appreciated.
The reason why I'm so interested in this is because many commentators are claiming that the U.S. will suffer so much less this time around because it is now a CAD country vs. the biggest exporter during GD1. I have some doubts, as I mentioned before, as I'm not certain that these commentators are taking into consideration the huge size of the service economy and excessive consumption. Just hunting for facts.
JimPortland: All sorts of arrangements going on. Saw one where a group of young guys were advertising for an older woman who could cook. They needed a kinda dorm mother. Folks with with acreage in Montana & other western areas who needed people willing to work on the land.
Interesting stuff. I was looking for my daughter who at an older age has gone back to school.
Assume Crash Positions! writes:
The big problem I see with HOAs is that they have the power to make things very expensive for an owner who runs afoul of them. Nothing more awesome than paying dues that fund an attorney whose job it is to harass you and also needing to pay out of pocket for your own attorney to defend against the BS.
Oh, I don't really disagree, but you're using the example of a single occupant-owner up against a healthy HOA. And I agree - under normal conditions, this is exactly how they operate and how it plays out.
My point is: in an HOA with half the houses under foreclosure - bank ownership - where the bank in question is an equally large, and equally immobile bureaucracy - the same leverage doesn't exist. Moreover, if half the houses in the neighborhood are under foreclosure and not paying dues...they can starve the HOA until it eats up it's bank account paying an attorney to chase after the properties.
This is NOT the same as you or any other Joe Schmoe going up against them over a friggen satellite dish.
Citizens need a prenup with the Guvmint.
I can haz bailouts? writes:
Why are all of you getting divorced so readily?
Perhaps it's because I'm young and have never been married...
Yes, that's why - the answer to your question.
If the agreement doesn't work for you -- might be better just not to get married. Form some other agreement.
Bob Dobbs | 12.30.08 - 2:30 pm | #
True, but marriage has many features that can not be duplicated by other arraingements. For example, if you are not married in effect you pay higher SS taxes (get less benefit for same taxes) and cant file joint tax return if just cohabitating
"Pavel: My family, too, is an old one. Back to the founding of Va. I've been running hard paper copies of everything I've found. I make copies & send them to interested relatives, so if mine disappear, they have their copies."
My wife and her relatives exchange hard copy of old records, photographs, even photos of tombstones and their inscriptions. Some memorial societies do that too.
When a friend of mine got divorced, his wife wanted all the cash. He was the CFO of a small high tech company and had some options that didn't have a high value at the time. The divorce was finalized with her getting 50% in the form of loads of cash.
5 years later, those options were worth quite a bit more. She hauled him back in to court claiming he had known the options would be worth much more. My friend was afraid to face the judge and gave her another bundle of cash.
Marriage should not be the norm. Living together relationships should be done on year/year leases, with lots of attachments to the lease. (My apt lease has 33 pages of attachments regarding mold, satellite tv, forbidding aquariums, etc.)
Then at the end of each year, the renegotiation occurs. If you want more/less sex, write an attachment to argue over. Don't forget damage deposits also (Your 50" HD TV might just 'fall off the wall' with a hammer stuck in it.
Also remove all the tax goodies for marriages (joint filing tax rates, mortgage interest deduction, etc.) and rquire individually filed taxes.
We abolished slavery, so its cousin marriage can be done away with too.
I keep searching for some aspect of our society that still holds true to fundamental beliefs of truth, integrity, and hard work. Feeling a little hopeless in identifying anything I can point too and say "there is the reason we'll persevere and prosper."
Citizen Jacked | 12.30.08 - 2:24 pm | #
be that reason. even if it seems to be achieved in very insignificant ways.
the guest writes:
Citizens need a prenup with the Guvmint.
We have one. spelled out plain as day and codified in every aspect of the Federal structure of the independent States of the Union. Didn't work out so well for the Confederated States despite their dotting every "i" crossing every "t."
"This is NOT the same as you or any other Joe Schmoe going up against them over a friggen satellite dish."
I went back and re-read your original post Scott, and I agree with you. Sometimes just seeing "HOA" gets my rant on.
Pavel: Your wife is lucky she has other family members helping. I'm no genealogist (just have an insatiable curiousity) and have been working on it in spits & starts over the past 6 years. Sadly, my computer skills are lacking. Thought of hiring an expert. Figured I don't need one unless I want to be a member of some Daughters of such & such group. I think I'll do all the investigation, and let a wealthier descendant pay for the privilege of joining.
What state (colony) does your wife's family spring from? Just curious.
Don't worry, guys! I won't turn this into a genealogical gabfest. Genealogists can be absolute fanatics!!!
True, but marriage has many features that can not be duplicated by other arraingements. For example, if you are not married in effect you pay higher SS taxes (get less benefit for same taxes) and cant file joint tax return if just cohabitating
Dirk | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 3:03 pm | #
Also any joint property is REALLY hard to divy up when common law marriage is divorced... and common law marriage is whatever the judge says it is.
I was in a coffee shop near the county courthouse yesterday overhearing to two friends (one, apparently, in a bad marriage) discuss who would get the home. It turned out that there was not a lot of equity in the home, and the question was whether she could just walk away leaving him with the home.
"Every contract should be viewed as the starting place for the next negotiation.
Comrade V | 12.30.08 - 2:44 pm | # "
Words to live by. Also works for elections, court rulings, employment laws, etc. The only kind of agreement/deision that ever has a chance of being final is a win-win.
OK, maybe another dumb question but,
Why didn't all of these bitter men just marry women who were good earners and good with money? Seems like when you get married you know what the person is like going in?
JimPortlandOR writes:
"Also: see the movie "War of the Roses"
'You don't understand, there is no winning; there only degrees of losing'
- Danny DeVito, as the divorce attorney
Assume Crash Positions! wrote:
Sometimes just seeing "HOA" gets my rant on.
Amen, brother. This is one of the things I love best about living out in the boonies these days on >50 acres. The county has a zoning ordinance, but they don't pester me about the junk pile - not toxic and you can't see it from the county road...plus, the property came with the junk pile.
" dryfly writes:
True, but marriage has many features that can not be duplicated by other arraingements. For example, if you are not married in effect you pay higher SS taxes (get less benefit for same taxes) and cant file joint tax return if just cohabitating
Dirk | Homepage | 12.30.08 - 3:03 pm | #
Also any joint property is REALLY hard to divy up when common law marriage is divorced... and common law marriage is whatever the judge says it is.
dryfly | 12.30.08 - 3:47 pm | # "
Dirk -- if that's important, they should get married and suck it up.
Dryfly -- the kind of "make it up yourself" marriage I'm talking about starts with a lawyer. I say it's an option, but I doubt few would take it or need it, especially if they're both going into a marriage with few assets.
An account once described to me the hell of forensic accounting following the breakup of informal relationships that held a lot of property. As he reminisced, beads of sweat popped out on his forehead.
That said, I've done it the "wrong" way myself. Had a woman move in with me and give me money to buy a house in my name because we of course would be together forever. Guess what? We still are, and we eventually married. Special circumstances, of course: I don't recommend this to anyone unless there's absolute trust verified by years of experience.
Muffin Top writes:
Why didn't all of these bitter men just marry women who were good earners and good with money?
Hmmm...I'm not bitter. I am a two-time divorcee. In hindsight, the first marriage was really quite good, we did split 'amicably' (though she was not happy about the divorce, she did not go after me), and we really were able to minimize legal fees...under $1k when all was said and done. As others noted...people's priorities change, and ours did...away from one another.
Seems like when you get married you know what the person is like going in?
This is naive - the power of self-deception and magical thinking is remarkable...note the housing bubble.
Also, the rate of domestic violence incidents are up:
US: Economic stress drives rise in child abuse and domestic violence
There is not always a way to stay, fight & try and work it out, no matter what economic conditions may exist.
This is naive - the power of self-deception and magical thinking is remarkable...note the housing bubble.
Scott | 12.30.08 - 4:06 pm | #
Sure, but I was raised to take responsibility for my choices. When I was dating, sometimes I ran across losers that wanted me to be a sugar mama, but I didn't bash the whole male race for it. Maybe you idealize the person but you know whether or not they are financially self-sufficient going in.
Maybe it is a generational thing. I know some guys my age that were attracted to more traditional/homekeeper type, but they knew what they were getting into -- they know that a woman with an elementary ed degree can't support a family and are not bitter about their choices.
Reasons to celebrate:
(1) Hydrox cookies are back (at least temporarily).
(2) Some marriages work really well.*
(3) Finally, when a marriage partnership is working, it is a wonderful thing to be a part of. I'll drink to that.
Happy New Year!
RE: Many thanks for the very cogent explanation of GD1. I particularly noted the discussion about "real" interest rates in relation to deflation, a concept I've never seen explained before but on refelction makes sense. Sorry I do not have UK GDP data but will keep request in mind.
The only discussion that isn't covered in the SJ presentation, is the effect of volocity (maybe I need to reread), but the statement recited here and other places most often is that analysis of money supply needs to conside velocity and when, as now, transactions begin dwindling, all of the liquidity being added will not overcome the inertia in the system. You are way ahead of me in your research, and I'm wondering how you integrate that concept with SJ's focus on reduction in investment due to rising real interest rates.
Again, many thanks. The piece was nicely written and illustrated.
A guy I used to work with was divorced and he said a divorce is the most costly transaction you'll ever make... but it's worth every penny!
"Genealogists can be absolute fanatics"
Why would you say THAT?... Bocher/Little/Fobes/Pabodie/Alde
Divorce w/ no kids is not a big deal, but when you add kids to the mix, that is when it really sucks and when the court system gets really unfair.
RE
"Have a look at this link. Especially the yellow table."
Thanks for the link. Thayer Watson also has a very nice summary of B/C Methodology on his website, for anyone interested in that sort of thing.
As for the consumption problem -- its very clear that government stimulus of the economy through purchases is nearly inconsequential.
A friend who does construction law and I talked about the fate of McMansions about ten years ago. The friend pointed out that breaking them up into units wasn't feasible for many of the reasons cited in this thread. Lousy construction was, of course, at the top of the list.
One item I haven't seen mentioned yet though is that many McMansions are remote from probably employment centers. As Kunstler (and others) point out, long commutes are going to strain the pocketbook too.
Rob Dawg wrote: "I think we've identified a new use for all those empty ocean going cargo containers stacking up in Long Beach."
I can't decide if you're joking or not, but containers are already being used for housing. There are even modular designs that exploit their stackability.
dryfly wrote: "it will be a huge challenge considering how fast modern materials [especially digital] deteriorate."
In Charles Stross's science-fiction novel "Glasshouse," future people refer to this period as the second Dark Ages because so little information can be recovered. As one character said (approximately), "Books and film are fine, you can look at them and see the information. But then they started to put everything in digital forms, and the formats changed every few years. Also, for some reason they started encrypting everything..."
Here's an idea...get a divorce, give the underwater house to the husband, he forecloses, remarry, buy another house with the wife's untouched credit.
Me and my girl have been living together in CA for 5 years. No common law here.
I love her, she loves me. No kids, no reason to get married as far as I am concerned.
Ever hear of Marvin v Marvin - acquired assets are community property after 6 months cohabit. Probably won't extend to "support" if you make sure that you never (in another's presence) tell her how much you love her and will take care of her.....
I can haz bailouts? writes:
Why are all of you getting divorced so readily? As a single male, I would think getting married would be a good thing. In addition to regular access to sex, I would think the lifelong companionship would be a great boon, particularly for the hard times such as this. Perhaps it's because I'm young and have never been married but I just don't understand how two people in love can turn so acrimonious so quickly and why people do not put more of an effort to work things out.
I can haz bailouts? | 12.30.08 - 1:39 pm | #
Well it sounds like you have a good head on your shoulders and definitely not a fool who would buy a cheaply built McMansion that you couldn't afford in a gated community controlled by an HOA.
Ken writes: In Charles Stross's science-fiction novel "Glasshouse," future people refer to this period as the second Dark Ages because so little information can be recovered.
I wish this vision were science fiction. According to the librarians I know, the current era is indeed likely to be Dark Ages II. Not only do our electronic devices morph constantly, but our paper is perishable. Most of our acid-based print sources, that is, almost all of our paper, will crumble sooner rather than later.
Let's hear it for papyrus.
j marston: FB (ie F***ed Borrower). YMMV??
I am a family law attorney and of my clients who own property, half are facing foreclosure. These days, very few people come in my office fighting over assets. They come in to fight over who is going to eat the debts--mortgage, car, credit line, credit cards. Nothing but debts. Debts and kids.
Your Mileage May Vary
Hubbert: TY!