Note that the total insured unemployment is now over 4.5 million for the first time since 1982.
Also, unless somebody tells me otherwise, I'm going to assume 6.3 million claims today would be roughly equivalent to 4.5 million in 1982. Based on these numbers:
ac writes: Note that the total insured unemployment is now over 4.5 million for the first time since 1982.
Also, unless somebody tells me otherwise, I'm going to assume 6.3 million claims today would be roughly equivalent to 4.5 million in 1982. Based on these numbers:
The question I haven't seen answered, and maybe I've missed it, is the extent to which population growth has been offset by an increase in 1099/contractors for staffing.
Any of these historical comps need to be considered with total population, age demographics, and independent contractors in mind.
In other news, AP reports that GMAC came up about $2.8 billion short of the $30B it needed to raise to qualify as a bank holding co. Guess that means they won't be receiving the money from. . .errr wait, they already got it?
The question I haven't seen answered, and maybe I've missed it, is the extent to which population growth has been offset by an increase in 1099/contractors for staffing.
Any of these historical comps need to be considered with total population, age demographics, and independent contractors in mind.
In addition, the US is much more pay-for-performance now than in the 1980s. Even if you're not unemployed, you're probably very dependent on bonus/tips etc..
Happy New Year! Although, you're a couple of threads late, those congrats started a couple of threads back. : P AnonyMiss | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 9:14 am | #
Well, I was stuck at the inlaws with no internet. But they did have cookies.
I have never been too interested in worrying about how unemployment compares to the 1970s, as it's hard to say what the value is.
But, yeah, comparisons are tough, for reasons that people list above (working population growth, contractors, pay-for-performance). Another big change is the rise in the percentage of working married women over the decades.
The fact that there was a transition from 1-wage earner to 2-wage earner households greatly distorts historical comparisons. This is on top of other changes, like the collapse of private sector unions.
Ok then, how about some tax-loss sellin' ? bearly | 12.31.08 - 9:39 am | #
Heh.... I've got about 3k in taxable gains in my one non-IRA account..... makes me want to take a flyer today, since if I lose, it's like getting 33% back on my money.
Kernan at CNBS is cheering as it shows claims slowing so therefore....Not important that state offices were closed at least one day if not two due to the Christmas holiday.
[The question I haven't seen answered, and maybe I've missed it, is the extent to which population growth has been offset by an increase in 1099/contractors for staffing]
Absolutely. Corp payrolls have been declining steadily for decades. Service sector (1099ers) has been growing to offset. Welfare was cut in the '90s so less there, but they wouldn't appear on unemployment anyhow.
I am leary of statistics that span decades. Misleading conclusions...
grumpyoldvet writes:
"Kernan at CNBS is cheering as it shows claims slowing so therefore....Not important that state offices were closed at least one day if not two due to the Christmas holiday."
As CR points out, the data is seasonally adjusted - they attempt to account for the holidays. But, as CR also points out, when there is a large "seasonal" effect like a big holiday, the data will still be dangerous.
Most people look at 4-week moving averages in order to take out some of the noise in the series.
... or how about the fact that some employers hold out for a week or two to execute the RIF's after the holiday. Less scroogely. I know of at least 2 companies in the Boston area that are about to lay off 100's-1000's worldwide come early Jan.
Gonna be a in ter resting upcoming quarter. From Bloomberg:
The $8.85 trillion held in cash, bank deposits and money- market funds is equal to 74 percent of the market value of U.S. companies, the highest ratio since 1990, according to Federal Reserve data compiled by Leuthold Group and Bloomberg.
While the real economy spins down, the markets may spin up. Ok, what will the S&P P/E be at the top?
4runner(Unrated) writes: In other words, create a voting mechanism where people can vote on the value of a user's comments, and make those votes available for screening...
[Heh.... I've got about 3k in taxable gains in my one non-IRA account..... makes me want to take a flyer today, since if I lose, it's like getting 33% back on my money]
I have some sell orders in on an illiquid stock's deep ITM options that I really want to take gains on this year. I need an offset. Someone might get a deal today...
4runner writes:
"Re: comment management
Is there any way that the CRC ratings can be fed back to the site and made available for filtering comments?
In other words, create a voting mechanism where people can vote on the value of a user's comments, and make those votes available for screening..."
If the comments went to a paid-for model, people could use your system to make markets on comments. People who posted popular comments would get some or all of their money back, subsidized by the fees from the rest of us.
In addition, the US is much more pay-for-performance now than in the 1980s. Even if you're not unemployed, you're probably very dependent on bonus/tips etc..
iceman | 12.31.08 - 9:29 am | #
Except on Wall St where there is no connection between performance and bonus.
The rumor that Microsoft was set to lay off people on January 15th, 2009 is no longer a rumor but a fact. Staff at Microsoft have been informed that the company is readying major layoffs to its worldwide operations and it's not a small cut, either.
Currently Microsoft employs about 90,000 people across the world and from what we're hearing, some 15,000 of those are expected to be giving marching orders come January 15th. That's almost 17 percent of Microsoft's total work force, not exactly a small number.
While the real economy spins down, the markets may spin up.
This is the kind of outcome you would expect from using inflationary policy to "fix" the economy - a complete decoupling of the markets and the financial system from reality.
It's something we know from history. The interesting question is why we keep doing it...
With regard to this comment controversy. Please remember that the past few weeks have been sort of slow news weeks with lots of idle hands on vacation/holiday. The tone will likely normalize when business as usual returns in January, when the trolls report back to work at walmart and McD.
And I am sorry for some of the the old-timers who have a UAW-ish sense of entitlement, but you were once newbies, too. You are looking to make your world a closed system, potentially blocking the entry of the next Tanta into the group. Use your little stubby fingers to scroll pass the crap, do not reply to trolls, just as I do and have done for close to a year now. Oh the horror of scrolling!
I have a lot of Jan options that are now in the red. I'm looking to unload those for tax purposes, although it sucks to have to worry about wash sales.
IRS can't even put out guidance on what they classify as substancially similar positions.
For those of you interested in a chuckle - here is the shocking-doom prediction for the 2008 real estate market from this time last year ... unfortunately, they were way too optimistic.
Look at non adjusted data, different story entirely
In the week ending Dec. 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 492,000, a decrease of 94,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 586,000. The 4-week moving average was 552,250, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 558,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.4 percent for the week ending Dec. 20, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.3 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 20 was 4,506,000, an increase of 140,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,366,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,422,500, an increase of 103,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,318,750.
UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 718,468 in the week ending Dec. 27, an increase of 1,892 from the previous week. There were 507,908 initial claims in the comparable week in 2007.
bond guy writes:
But, yeah, comparisons are tough, for reasons that people list above (working population growth, contractors, pay-for-performance). Another big change is the rise in the percentage of working married women over the decades.
I would also add to the list of complications changes to unemployment insurance policies, such as max duration of benefits, and growth in part-time time employment.
What will they call the GMAC Bowl now? The TARP Bowl? This College Bowl Game is brought to by Treasury Department. There will be a drawing at half-time...and some lucky winner will be given an opportunity to become a bank holding company. In case it rains, all concession stands are fully stocked with TARPs....so don't let nasty weather get in your way.
This is the kind of outcome you would expect from using inflationary policy to "fix" the economy - a complete decoupling of the markets and the financial system from reality.
Our inflationary system doesn't seem fair does it? Actual production/output is excessively taxed and immediately devalued, while inflation gathering/shuffling is rewarded.
With those incentives, it's no wonder we're at the brink of financial collapse. Can political change be far behind?
CR: Tarp Teat has raised an interesting point. When mp brought up the idea of paying $200+ for entry here, I asked myself if that would've deterred Tanta from posting.
While I agree the number of posts have doubled, along with the trolls, can't we somehow still encourage the Tanta types still out there to share their wisdom?
The commentariat is richer in their participation.
Uncle Billy Smiles writes: \tSome attorneys are going to be busy. Look what Oxnard and other cities have done to themselves with the help of helpful consultants: Uncle Billy Smiles | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 10:01 am | # ---- Wow. Just W-O-W!
The fact that the city thought it was a good idea and couldn't figure out how to provide 150 million in infrastructure improvements without taking out loans against their library, soccer field, and PD space is just eye-opening. I'm sure that there are activist citizens on the other side of the equation, but WTF is going on in that dynamic? Creating exotic solutions to Econ/Fin 101 is just mind-boggling especially in this economic climate.
Better question: Oxnard folks voted in all incumbants or new policritters last time 'round?
OT: LOS ANGELES (AP) -- "SpongeBob SquarePants" may be getting squeezed off of Time Warner Cable. Media giant Viacom Inc. said its Nickelodeon, MTV, Comedy Central and 16 other channels will go dark for 13 million subscribers at 12:01 a.m. Thursday if a new carriage fee deal with Time Warner Cable is not agreed upon by then. ---- For the first time in my life, I'd be grateful for the Comcast-TW cable swap in my area.
I hate Comcast, but if they had the gaul to rip The Daily Show and Colbert Report for me over a "fee deal", my circus would be ripped away. And you don't want more idle mind/idle hands missing their circuses...
yagi: don't rightly know. And this is on top of all the auction rate security garbage that municipalities were sold, and cds, etc. etc. Happy New Year.
Let's get Kathleen Brown on the blog as guest poster to help us understand the scope of the public finance, ehem, issues.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - LyondellBasell Industries AF SCA has told lenders it is considering filing for bankruptcy protection, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
man, if those CNBC schmucks could see what i look and feel like right now, they would weep for their jobs (hat tip to eric).
i have explosive diarrhea, a raging rash on my crotch, throbbing hemorrhoids, gout, syphilis, pink eye, compound fracture of both legs, three amputated fingers, festering pus boils on both butt cheeks, a sharp stick in my left eye, i've been scalped with a chainsaw, i got my ear cut off reservoir dog style, got a 9 foot tapeworm, multiple open, gangrenous lacerations (but only on my neck, face, head, chest, and abdomen), and i woke up with my pants unbuttoned after a meeting with Ben and Hank (not sure why i passed out and why my pants were unbuttoned), that's about it....oh, and a deep hangnail on my big toe.
Other than that, i'm good. i'm ready to sprint through 2009. nothing to see here.
slovakia adopts euro. so the currency appreciated together with all V4 currencies and was fixed on the top of emerging market currency bubble and now while all other currencies in the region (poland, czech republic, hungary) are falling the slovak crown is pegged to euro and tomorrow will be replaced by euro. good thing, people have extreme saving rate and mortgages were not very exotic and while for a moment it might seem that the peg is bad because of the other V4 countries other side is that you cant plan in polland hungary and czechr republic if their currencies fly dozens of percents per year up and down.
Better question: Oxnard folks voted in all incumbants or new policritters last time 'round?
yagij
Interesting question. The short answer is that the voters of Oxnard rejected every candidate or initiative that promised change in favor of the status quo. I have referred to Oxnard as the most dysfunctional city in the nation and people thought it was hyperbole. But in that I am not alone. TV personalities Johnny Carson and Gordon Shumway regularly made fun of Fresno-by-the-Sea.
To be honest I can tell you for sure that the LA Times is only scratching the surface of the financial and governance problems in Oxnard. The OEDC is a clearly illegal organization. Brown Act circumventions are legendary. The myriad of developer subsidies include cash to the family of one of the councilmembers. Don't even get me started on the downtown theater complex. Then there's Riverpark which is already dragging a school district under.
I'm surprised there isn't a lot more selling today to lock in losses. It certainly looks like the prevailing attitude is to paint the tape instead. Gavshire Hathaway | 12.31.08 - 10:27 am | #
If the money's in a 401k or IRA, there are no tax reasons to sell.
I hate Comcast, but if they had the gaul to rip The Daily Show and Colbert Report for me over a "fee deal", my circus would be ripped away yagij | 12.31.08 - 10:28 am | #
As a proudly cable-free citizen for a few years now, may I recommend you cut off the revenue stream to Comcast ASAP? I would have done it earlier, but it took me awhile to make sure I was able to find the same informaiton through other means, before I shut off the signal. Honestly, life is soooo much better without cable. Having to use the internet instead I have come to notice the impact of my viewing habits are beneficial. Instead of mindlessly flipping, or zoning out for hours waiting for something to 'come on', I simply find what I want, watch it, and be done with it. No commercials, no waste of time. Looking back, Im not sure why it took me so long to get away from TV. The grass really is greener over on this side
Just wanted to say that I continue to be amazed at where this thing has gone since I started lurking Fall 2007, that we are beyond most of the worst case scenarios of the gold/guns/tinfoil hat crowd of 2007, and I still think that this party has just gotten started in earnest.
Eric - Any cookies left? Barley | 12.31.08 - 10:38 am | #
Oh. My. God.
We brought a shitload back with us on the plane. They went right in the freezer.
We usually eat low-carb (not Atkins, but close) and low sodium. Between the cookies, the bagels (there are no good bagels in the midwest where we live), the pizza (there is no good pizza in Chicago (yeah yeah yeah, sue me. I like 'vi' as an editor too.... and Macs suck!)), and the pirogis, I gained 11 pounds in six days.
Oh the horror of scrolling! Tarp Teat | 12.31.08 - 10:04 am | #
+1
I have been hanging out here for several years now...not quite from the very beginning, but from fairly early on (the path in the woods motif); I have very litttle of substance to contribute to on-topic discussions of macro-finance, etc., etc., but I've learned a lot, and gotten a lot of good investment ideas. I have engaged in some partisan sniping, but do try to resist generally. I think a paid coment system would really deter/inhibit the ability of new folks to enter the system. The long-time self-annointed experts (you know who you are - from Jas & Sebastian to MP & Dawg - you are self-proclaimed) should recognize that their reps rest squarely on being openly recognized and followed by an open community - the value of their ideas and expertise is a function of public testing and recognition (and anyone who's followed the comments for a while will know which of those I happened to mention has cred due to their track record(s)). In short, both the 'newbie' neophytes (like me) and the seasoned experts need one another.
It just isn't that hard to skip over the noise...the S/N is extraordinarily good here, and even the fling-fests are generally substantive, so I learn something from the debates. We have very few genuine trolls, particularly for an open venue, and they are easily enough ignored. Even with the regularly >100 comment threads these days, the majority is a back and forth between informed and only slightly digressing posters.
The problem of ID/handle hijacking is real, so a system requiring some level of registration seems appropriate. It's easy enough to register yourself using anonymous email - and the level of real-life anonymity provided by using "my_foo" for a handle is just as great as "anonymous" - they're just arbitrary strings. It is a problem for folks who want to masquerade as multiple users, but it seems reasonable to interfere with that level of 'gaming' of the comments.
That was halarious! Hes wrong of course, but it was halarious! only someone who only dirves american cars can think that saying "I keep cars until 150,000 miles" means they are good cars. *MY last Camry was ditched(for another Camry) at 300,000 miles.
You can only claim $3000 in losses a year to offset ordinary income for tax purposes. The market is down ~45%, so coming up with $3000 worth of losses is easy and probably already taken. Most people don't have gains this year.
RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised writes: As a proudly cable-free citizen for a few years now, may I recommend you cut off the revenue stream to Comcast ASAP? RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 10:44 am | # ----- Let me clarify: I've been cable-free since 2004, and the only revenue I have provided my local cable company is for broadband access.
However, I do love me some Colbert Report when I'm visiting friends and family...
and to rub Anonymous it in my favorite bar on the beach where to obtain said milkshake is called Ganja Bar... they also sell loose joints... haha, off to the beach
Rob Dawg writes: Interesting question. The short answer is that the voters of Oxnard rejected every candidate or initiative that promised change in favor of the status quo. Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 10:42 am | # ---- Basically, they are getting the gov't they deserve or--at least--the gov't they can't remove? Sounds similar to other places around this grand ol' country.
Talking about dysfunctional cities, how many houses will Detroit have to list for under 4k before it becomes a buying opportunity? If you can get 10-100 houses all together for 1 USD each, what would stop someone from just buying up land for the sake of investment and have a large land lot for the heck of it?
[Gavshire Hathaway writes:
I have a lot of Jan options that are now in the red. I'm looking to unload those for tax purposes, although it sucks to have to worry about wash sales]
Better to beg for forgiveness than ask for permission.
btw. regarding real estate market in eastern europe slovak republic. a friedn of mine is working for a rich guy who bought many apartments for big money he will never see again. he is now using these apartments for office space and rents it to his employees while he is totaly cash negative on them. he bought them cash and he is losing money bigtime. but at least he has money and bought them cash. now in most cities in slovakia you are 20-30% down from top and the recesion has not started oficialy. the prices have goneup during 2007 100% so they still have a lot to go down and they will the 100% and 120% mortgages are no more offered since december and the market is starting to implode.
Talking about dysfunctional cities, how many houses will Detroit have to list for under 4k before it becomes a buying opportunity? If you can get 10-100 houses all together for 1 USD each, what would stop someone from just buying up land for the sake of investment and have a large land lot for the heck of it?
Tarp Teat wrote: "The tone will likely normalize when business as usual returns in January, when the trolls report back to work at walmart and McD."
This is good, CON-bot, very good and I encourage more. Please continue to remove all sympathy for arrogant money-men. You are safe, very safe and no one could ever touch you.
I will have to take the label "troll" if this kind of comment is tolerated by this blog community. Though I don't work at McD's, so I will see you tomorrow and for the rest of the year. I make that pledge on behalf of all the trolls that may be foolishly working instead of simply ganging up and robbing those who presume to spit down upon them.
Resentment as human a quality as hubris. You and other such Cons may just get that accountability you hypocritically demand of others.
Countdown just concluded and a lot of boom boom over the harbor: Happy New Year from HK.
Overload of govt sponsored feel good PR going on. And the fireworks should go on a bit longer than usual--theyre blowing from actual buildings in Central to Wanchai. Usually its from barges in the harbor. Cant fathom how they pulled that off. Major property developers up on the dais with the CE Donald. What a spectacle.
2009 would be an interesting year in the most ordinary of circumstances-- it will bring the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen incident, 60th of the founding of the PRC, and 90th of the May Fourth movement. All laden with import for the people, and with tricky passages for the leadership. I imagine the contingency plans are voluminous, come what may.
Thanks Bearly, I'll keep that in mind. It is quite difficult to keep expiration dates/strike prices straight -- plus the symbols are different -- and the IRS hasn't released specific guidance anyway.
The combination of the worst financial crisis since World War II and the collapse of the $330 billion auction-rate debt market will leave 41 states and the District of Columbia with shortfalls just as financing sources diminish. Merrill Lynchs Municipal Master Index, which tracks 14,000 bonds, fell 4.6 percent this year, the first decline since a 6.34 percent drop in 1999. The biggest underwriters are merging or leaving the business.
I have no independant verification regarding 17% layoff number but I'm rejoicing at the prospect of picking up some quality engineers and assigning them to manage our Linux clusters running oracle.
From latest 10k
Global markets continue to experience unprecedented volatility as we move into fiscal 2009, amid signs that the current recession may be deep and prolonged. We anticipate a challenging business climate ahead. Because our assets under management at fiscal year end were substantially below our average managed asset levels for fiscal 2008, we will likely experience a significant decline in revenue in fiscal 2009 relative to fiscal 2008 unless market conditions improve. Although we have taken steps to manage our costs in response to current market conditions, we expect our profit margins and net income also to be adversely affected. In this period of turmoil, we maintain our financial flexibility and remain committed to the further development of our business franchise.
OT, but those that think mp or Dawg or whomever is somehow condescending you're dead wrong. They're just very nice, extremely polite, and very well spoken people that happen to know quite a lot about the topics they choose to address. Oh, and funny -- quite funny, too.
We'll learn about peanut-free and low-carb soup kitchens in 2009.
The market will drop another 20-30%.
Unemployment closes at 12% for 2009.
End of 2009 declarations that 2010 can only be better.
"Furlough" makes it back into the common speak--but is really happy-speak for being laid-off without the benefit of being fired so you can collect unemployment.
The $8.85 trillion held in cash, bank deposits and money- market funds is equal to 74 percent of the market value of U.S. companies, the highest ratio since 1990, according to Federal Reserve data compiled by Leuthold Group and Bloomberg.
Proof yet again of lies, damned lies and statistics!
The stock market can go up and down without there being a net change in the amount of money in MM accounts. If the stock market declines then the value of MM accounts is higher as % of market cap and vice versa. Completely meaningless statistic.
Never did understand this "money coming into the market" since for every seller there is a buyer so one person puts in exactly the same amount as another person takes out.
JR --> point taken. I rescind the wally/McD comment. It wasn't called for.
Comrade Bear --> I did not mean to imply that the old timers are rude or impolite. I come here to read their posts, too. I usually only get to the threads 12 hours after they are dead, always playing catch-up.
I just think that you have to take the bad to get to the good. Keep it open and free. At most, a light Mish-like registration is acceptable.
Scott said: "...The long-time self-annointed experts (you know who you are - from Jas & Sebastian to MP & Dawg - you are self-proclaimed)..."
I've self-revoked my membership to that club, since clearly I have no unique expertise, only a unique voice and point of view. Better to simply be an objective observer of what's happening than to be an "expert" who knows better than reality.
(Although parts of my reality continue to remain at odds with virtually everywhere else. Even by Case-Shiller numbers, my local housing market is one of the strongest in the nation.)
Uncle Billy Smiles writes:
Some attorneys are going to be busy. Look what Oxnard and other cities have done to themselves with the help of helpful consultants:
That article doesn't mention anything about one of the biggest reasons that sale/leasebacks got so popular with municipal agencies. Basically, a municipal agency pays no taxes, so it can't depreciate assets. But there are a lot of private companies out there looking to reduce their taxes. So you sell them your assets and they depreciate them and get the tax break. You split the tax break in the form of a leaseback that makes the item less expensive than if you didn't do the deal. Both parties benefit at the expense of the taxpayer. Which is why the IRS ruled this an illegal tax shelter recently (but is offering amnesty to break the deals).
I'm with you. I predicted the low end of the spectrum. I believe that real figures probably put us between 10-12% today, so I'm just predicting what already depresed "official" figures will say...
I also predict that less complex financial instruments will again be used in the marketplace:
As in, I take this gun, hold it to your head, demand all your money and jewelry...
the original leverage...
/violent crime will sky-rocket as police & prisons go under-financed...
Glad to hear that this bloated mess of an organization has finally gotten a clue that it needs to rationalize its operations and hopefully focus itself, instead of throwing money and bodies at every tech trend that comes along. It is of course unfortunate for the individuals being laid off, and I don't wish ill on anyone.
Plus, you can wave a final farewell to George Bush's America, the sour megachurches and the gun shops and the liquor barns (usually all in the same mini mall), the giant industrial feedlots and the creationist museums and the prisons overflowing with white collar criminals and hey! Isn't that Scooter Libby, hitchhiking down the highway toward Sodom? Can we take a quick detour up to the Minneapolis airport so I can take one last snapshot of Sen. Larry Craig's favorite "I am not gay" totally gay restroom before it vanishes from the tourist map forevermore? Cool.
Rob Dawg writes:
"To be honest I can tell you for sure that the LA Times is only scratching the surface of the financial and governance problems in Oxnard."
Note the subtle suggestion that Prop 13 is the source of their problem.
cd writes:
"Srs players check this out.. thoughts?"
I can't understand SRS, but you would think it is a coiled spring. I had mixed results with EEV and decided to take chips off the table while I gave it more study.
Anonymous said: "I think you meant to say: one of the less weak."
Well, so less-weak that it's hard to distinguish between actual price weakness and the bid-ask spread between sellers and buyers in a normal market, but whatever.
The only first-hand knowledge I have of anyone running into housing-price "unpleasantness" was an older couple of my acquaintance who sold their home here over a year ago (at a good price) but then retired to their new home...in Las Vegas.
Re : Layoffs in the Bay Area. I work for a pretty large company of > 10k people. We went big-time into off-shoring so as not to add to permanent head-count. At the beginning of this month we did an accross the board 80-90% cut off all off-shore personnel. Full-time layoffs are coming big time in January, they don't want to impact the tech-side of the company till the end of year rush is done.
Pissed Off In California writes:
"At the beginning of this month we did an accross the board 80-90% cut off all off-shore personnel."
Haven't seen much discussion yet of the follow on effect in these countries as the cut backs become widespread. Gotta hurt those local economies big time. Where were your off-shores located?
Never did understand this "money coming into the market" since for every seller there is a buyer so one person puts in exactly the same amount as another person takes out.
Money on the sidelines is the amount of "new" money that can be created to buy assets. In other words, it is the willingness and ability of market participants to borrow money to buy assets.
I wouldn't expect that there is a lot of money on the sidelines based on either criteria.
Mostly right but Dawg does descend at times to ad hominem...just sayin'
Witty, yep.
citizen energyecon
Well, sometimes I get drawn into responses in kind. It's one of those least bad type of choices. Besides, if I were perfect I'd be (even more) insuffereble.
Comrade V writes:
Rob Dawg writes:
"To be honest I can tell you for sure that the LA Times is only scratching the surface of the financial and governance problems in Oxnard."
Note the subtle suggestion that Prop 13 is the source of their problem.
Actually no. Prop 13 and the revenue stability it engenders is one of the few bright spots for the City. It's problems stem from exotic debt instruments and increasing reliance upon sales taxes. The "problem" with Prop 13 is that it effectively constrained municipal avarice in one sector thus forcing those with larceny in their hearts to look elsewhere. Besides, municipalities are no longer bothered by the limits of Prop 13. They've got any number of circumventions available, not least being Mello-Roos and Special Assessment Districts and for-profit fee structures.
Rob Dawg writes:
"Actually no. Prop 13 and the revenue stability it engenders is one of the few bright spots for the City."
I agree with you, and was simply pointing out suble bias in LAT article. Although I doubt you will ever get any gov't employee to agree that Prop 13 is a bright spot, as long as they can't manage spending stability.
Sebastian,
Not picking a fight but would you please look at Los Angeles Q2 07 and Seattle Q4 08. Now overlay your Carolina region with another 18 month offset and read the future. Here's a start at the Seattle Bubble Blog.
I doubt you will ever get any gov't employee to agree that Prop 13 is a bright spot, as long as they can't manage spending stability.
Comrade V
Bingo. California and California municipalities/agencies do not have anything close to a revenue problem. They have a spending problem. The real problem is that there exists no level of taxation including and even surpassing confiscation that can ever cure a spending problem. The Laffer Curve is flawed but in the extreme case of California it might just be proven correct. I honestly believe that there is no revenue enhancement scheme available in this State that would not result in lower cumulative revenues within 18 months. Instead of the Golden Goose the plans appear to be killing the Golden State. The result will still be the same.
Speaking of the tone of some comments - this place is not supposed to be a support group, with back-slaps and cheerful messages.
Commenters do try to mix information with entertainment, and often times the easiest kind of entertainment is a pie-in-the-face type. Most of it, though, is good humored. And since almost everybody is using aliases, even insults cannot be taken personally
Kicker said: "Money on the sidelines is the amount of "new" money that can be created to buy assets. In other words, it is the willingness and ability of market participants to borrow money to buy assets.
I wouldn't expect that there is a lot of money on the sidelines based on either criteria."
FWIW, there is a real measure of money on the sidelines that is actually cash/cash equivalents and dedicated to investing in stocks. It's "liquid assets of stock mutual funds", found here:
It's currently (November is the last full month for which there's complete data) at 5.4%. Just for comparison the average for the last decade has been around 4.75% so there's an above-average amount of money available to invest (and it doesn't need to be created by credit), it's just not being invested.
Sort of supports the theory that bull markets and bear markets seem to be much more defined by the willingness of participants to commit their money than by the actual amount of money they have.
Rob Dawg said: "Sebastian,
Not picking a fight but would you please look at Los Angeles Q2 07 and Seattle Q4 08. Now overlay your Carolina region with another 18 month offset and read the future."
CR taught me better than to compare apples and oranges. If you look at the permit growth, you'll see that in boom times it goes off the charts for the "bubble" states but remains slow and boring in slow and boring states like mine.
Prices and affordability remained moderate where I live, too. Even now:
Los Angeles median price $379,900, mortgage-to-rent 1.6, price-to-income 10.4.
Seattle median price $384,600, mortgage-to-rent 1.55, price-to-income 5.2.
Raleigh median price $259,900, mortgage-to-rent 1.0, price-to-income 3.3.
I completely agree that prices here will be soft as the recession wears on (and probably even post-recession, whenever that is). But whether it will be meaningful or not, given that our growth was far closer to sustainability than in LA or Seattle (Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, etc)? I'll be watching more closely this time, but I still have to see some evidence.
FWIW, there is a real measure of money on the sidelines that is actually cash/cash equivalents and dedicated to investing in stocks. It's "liquid assets of stock mutual funds"
Higher than normal amounts of cash in an open ended mutual fund may also indicate that mutual fund managers expect higher than normal redemption requests in 2009.
The NYSE Margin Debt would be a better indicator of how willing people are to use new money to buy stocks. It's well off it's highs but NYSE Margin Debt went through it's own massive bubble.
Combine the banks inability to create new money, the death of the primary dealers (which were the links between the Fed's monetary policy and the stock market), with the large amount of household leverage and it may be a long time before we see new money flowing into assets again.
Raleigh has always been special (Broughton class of '60) but here on the coast the economy has turned nasty. Today's headline in the paper that serves New Hanover, Brunswick, and Pender counties says in bold print:
"Home building bust took heavy toll on sales,jobs"
Top story #1 of 2008.
Raleigh was a wonderful place to grow up in the 40's and 50's. 50-70k population and a big swimming pool a couple blocks away (Hayes Barton section).
The coming year seems full of hope. Economic recovery and ending recession will be painful across many nation, since this financial crisis had direct or indirect effect on many countries. Hope recovery will be more speedy and well be able to get rid of economic mess by the beginning of 2010.
"Raleigh median price $259,900, mortgage-to-rent 1.0, price-to-income 3.3."
With these numbers,coupled with historically low interest rates, Raleigh should be a healthy market with decent sales velocity. I suspect though, sales and prices are down moderately, which means something else is going on. Bad news, indeed, for for the not so healthy markets.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
it sucks to have to worry about wash sales.
I cite the wash sale rules and Schedule D as the primary reason I won't trade stocks. (I do buy and hold for long term though, and manage a 401k.)
The only thing I hate worse than filling out tax forms, is trying to communicate via FAX and e-mail with the IRS when their computers disagree with you on a claim. They even have IRS offices here in Charlotte - but they won't talk to walk-ins. Gawd, do they suck.
In Ohio, the state unemployment web-site froze up, the telephones were jammed, and there was a two-and-half hour wait on hold if you could get through in order to file a claim. No wonder the number of filings was down. If you can't file, then you won't be counted.
Over the past two days my street in South Florida was power-washed. Each workman received a percentage of the fee and was an "independent" contractor. Since business is very slow, the company had the six individuals share the job rather than allow three workers to complete it start to finish. One of the men used to work for a car dealership in its body shop painting cars.
In short, that fellow went from being an employee to an independent contractor. Not clear if he filed for unemployment benefits along the way or is double dipping. I think the unemployment numbers are filled with stories like this.
Yes, and how many of those are here legally? My father is from a family of 10 brothers and sisters (no, he's not an immigrant, his parents were not immigrants, and their parents were not immigrants, and their parents were not immigrants). I have 22 cousins, and they have only had 11 children so far in the 2000s. That's 2.2/couple down to 0.5/couple- this exact scenario has been repeated millions of times. The average couple needs to have 2.1 children to maintain a population size. Pre-1960 baby-boomer US population is clearly not growing. Up 32% means that we added 72 million to this country in only 26 years. This growth rate has been sustained ONLY by: 1) illegal immigration, 2) anchor babies born to illegal immigrants, 3) anchor babies born to visa workers, 4) legal immigration, and 5) babies born to legal immigrants. The largely Mexican immigrant population is not assimilating, which is evidenced by Spanish labels on all consumer products and all forms of consumer communication.
Now you see why California, Nevada, and Florida are the epicenter of the mortgage crisis.
Happy New Year
Hmmmm...
Here comes the "unemployment is a thing of the past" headlines......
Eric writes:
Happy New Year
Eric | 12.31.08 - 9:10 am |
Happy New Year! Although, you're a couple of threads late, those congrats started a couple of threads back. : P
Can't wait to see next weeks numbers, or the week after that.
Happier New Year, All.....it'll be a cliffdive right around Inauguration Day.
Note that the total insured unemployment is now over 4.5 million for the first time since 1982.
Also, unless somebody tells me otherwise, I'm going to assume 6.3 million claims today would be roughly equivalent to 4.5 million in 1982. Based on these numbers:
Civilian Labor Force United States
Must be the bottom... Buy buy buy
ow is a great time to work or apply for unemployment benefits
ac writes:
Note that the total insured unemployment is now over 4.5 million for the first time since 1982.
Also, unless somebody tells me otherwise, I'm going to assume 6.3 million claims today would be roughly equivalent to 4.5 million in 1982. Based on these numbers:
Data360 Homepage? ...et_Group_Id=247
The question I haven't seen answered, and maybe I've missed it, is the extent to which population growth has been offset by an increase in 1099/contractors for staffing.
Any of these historical comps need to be considered with total population, age demographics, and independent contractors in mind.
Billyboy--LMAO.
In other news, AP reports that GMAC came up about $2.8 billion short of the $30B it needed to raise to qualify as a bank holding co. Guess that means they won't be receiving the money from. . .errr wait, they already got it?
The question I haven't seen answered, and maybe I've missed it, is the extent to which population growth has been offset by an increase in 1099/contractors for staffing.
Any of these historical comps need to be considered with total population, age demographics, and independent contractors in mind.
In addition, the US is much more pay-for-performance now than in the 1980s. Even if you're not unemployed, you're probably very dependent on bonus/tips etc..
Happy New Year! Although, you're a couple of threads late, those congrats started a couple of threads back. : P
AnonyMiss | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 9:14 am | #
Well, I was stuck at the inlaws with no internet. But they did have cookies.
Can I haz deleveraging ?
Ok then, how about some tax-loss sellin' ?
I have never been too interested in worrying about how unemployment compares to the 1970s, as it's hard to say what the value is.
But, yeah, comparisons are tough, for reasons that people list above (working population growth, contractors, pay-for-performance). Another big change is the rise in the percentage of working married women over the decades.
The fact that there was a transition from 1-wage earner to 2-wage earner households greatly distorts historical comparisons. This is on top of other changes, like the collapse of private sector unions.
Ok then, how about some tax-loss sellin' ?
bearly | 12.31.08 - 9:39 am | #
Heh.... I've got about 3k in taxable gains in my one non-IRA account..... makes me want to take a flyer today, since if I lose, it's like getting 33% back on my money.
Yeah, I might have a gambling problem.
Happy New Year from Sihanoukville!
btw... fell asleep last night at 2 am (2 pm EST) why did market spike last hour?
on my way to drink a 'happy milkshake' on the beach...
Kernan at CNBS is cheering as it shows claims slowing so therefore....Not important that state offices were closed at least one day if not two due to the Christmas holiday.
grumpyoldvet, I was wondering about that as well. Nobody seems to be taking the shortened week for claims into account.
[The question I haven't seen answered, and maybe I've missed it, is the extent to which population growth has been offset by an increase in 1099/contractors for staffing]
Absolutely. Corp payrolls have been declining steadily for decades. Service sector (1099ers) has been growing to offset. Welfare was cut in the '90s so less there, but they wouldn't appear on unemployment anyhow.
I am leary of statistics that span decades. Misleading conclusions...
I figure if the dismal housing report and CPI numbers yesterday were good for almost a 200 point rally, this should be worth at least 500 points.
grumpyoldvet writes:
"Kernan at CNBS is cheering as it shows claims slowing so therefore....Not important that state offices were closed at least one day if not two due to the Christmas holiday."
As CR points out, the data is seasonally adjusted - they attempt to account for the holidays. But, as CR also points out, when there is a large "seasonal" effect like a big holiday, the data will still be dangerous.
Most people look at 4-week moving averages in order to take out some of the noise in the series.
Re: comment management
Is there any way that the CRC ratings can be fed back to the site and made available for filtering comments?
In other words, create a voting mechanism where people can vote on the value of a user's comments, and make those votes available for screening...
Just think about the retail jobs to be lost in 1Q09, as some of the retailers take bankruptcy. Kernan is an idiot.
... or how about the fact that some employers hold out for a week or two to execute the RIF's after the holiday. Less scroogely. I know of at least 2 companies in the Boston area that are about to lay off 100's-1000's worldwide come early Jan.
Gonna be a in ter resting upcoming quarter. From Bloomberg:
The $8.85 trillion held in cash, bank deposits and money- market funds is equal to 74 percent of the market value of U.S. companies, the highest ratio since 1990, according to Federal Reserve data compiled by Leuthold Group and Bloomberg.
While the real economy spins down, the markets may spin up. Ok, what will the S&P P/E be at the top?
4runner(Unrated) writes:
In other words, create a voting mechanism where people can vote on the value of a user's comments, and make those votes available for screening...
Mechanism rewards mutual congratulation societies.
[Heh.... I've got about 3k in taxable gains in my one non-IRA account..... makes me want to take a flyer today, since if I lose, it's like getting 33% back on my money]
I have some sell orders in on an illiquid stock's deep ITM options that I really want to take gains on this year. I need an offset. Someone might get a deal today...
4runner writes:
"Re: comment management
Is there any way that the CRC ratings can be fed back to the site and made available for filtering comments?
In other words, create a voting mechanism where people can vote on the value of a user's comments, and make those votes available for screening..."
If the comments went to a paid-for model, people could use your system to make markets on comments. People who posted popular comments would get some or all of their money back, subsidized by the fees from the rest of us.
"Well, I was stuck at the inlaws with no internet."
While you were gone, Eric, I wept for your puts.
Some attorneys are going to be busy. Look what Oxnard and other cities have done to themselves with the help of helpful consultants:
IOUs pave the streets - Los Angeles Times
In addition, the US is much more pay-for-performance now than in the 1980s. Even if you're not unemployed, you're probably very dependent on bonus/tips etc..
iceman | 12.31.08 - 9:29 am | #
Except on Wall St where there is no connection between performance and bonus.
While you were gone, Eric, I wept for your puts.
fried | 12.31.08 - 10:00 am | #
Yeah.... next time, I'll just rip up my money and throw it in the garbage.
Microsoft getting ready to lay off 17% of staff
The rumor that Microsoft was set to lay off people on January 15th, 2009 is no longer a rumor but a fact. Staff at Microsoft have been informed that the company is readying major layoffs to its worldwide operations and it's not a small cut, either.
Currently Microsoft employs about 90,000 people across the world and from what we're hearing, some 15,000 of those are expected to be giving marching orders come January 15th. That's almost 17 percent of Microsoft's total work force, not exactly a small number.
Fudzilla - Microsoft getting ready to lay off 17% of staff
Except on Wall St where there is no connection between performance and bonus.
Dirk | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 10:02 am | #
No connection between "long-term actual" performance, and bonus is what you meant.
"Short-term, swing for the fences and mark-to-fantasy" vs. bonus? That they can do.
While the real economy spins down, the markets may spin up.
This is the kind of outcome you would expect from using inflationary policy to "fix" the economy - a complete decoupling of the markets and the financial system from reality.
It's something we know from history. The interesting question is why we keep doing it...
With regard to this comment controversy. Please remember that the past few weeks have been sort of slow news weeks with lots of idle hands on vacation/holiday. The tone will likely normalize when business as usual returns in January, when the trolls report back to work at walmart and McD.
And I am sorry for some of the the old-timers who have a UAW-ish sense of entitlement, but you were once newbies, too. You are looking to make your world a closed system, potentially blocking the entry of the next Tanta into the group. Use your little stubby fingers to scroll pass the crap, do not reply to trolls, just as I do and have done for close to a year now. Oh the horror of scrolling!
I have a lot of Jan options that are now in the red. I'm looking to unload those for tax purposes, although it sucks to have to worry about wash sales.
IRS can't even put out guidance on what they classify as substancially similar positions.
For those of you interested in a chuckle - here is the shocking-doom prediction for the 2008 real estate market from this time last year ... unfortunately, they were way too optimistic.
Housing market outlook for 2008 is bleak - Dec. 21, 2007
Look at non adjusted data, different story entirely
In the week ending Dec. 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 492,000, a decrease of 94,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 586,000. The 4-week moving average was 552,250, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 558,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.4 percent for the week ending Dec. 20, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.3 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 20 was 4,506,000, an increase of 140,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,366,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,422,500, an increase of 103,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,318,750.
UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 718,468 in the week ending Dec. 27, an increase of 1,892 from the previous week. There were 507,908 initial claims in the comparable week in 2007.
Nice little pump job here to paint the tape, by the way. I can't decide if I appreciate it or am disgusted by it.
I can't decide if I appreciate it or am disgusted by it.
Gavshire Hathaway | 12.31.08 - 10:05 am | #
Another Wall Street oldie but goodie: "Don't get sore..... SELL SOME MORE!!!!"
bond guy writes:
But, yeah, comparisons are tough, for reasons that people list above (working population growth, contractors, pay-for-performance). Another big change is the rise in the percentage of working married women over the decades.
I would also add to the list of complications changes to unemployment insurance policies, such as max duration of benefits, and growth in part-time time employment.
Eric,
Yeah -- but I'm sort of in love with the puts I have....I don't want to try to find replacements.
"Short-term, swing for the fences and mark-to-fantasy" vs. bonus? That they can do.
Eric | 12.31.08 - 10:04 am | #
Yes Eric, sorry for my inprecission, you have it exactly right.
What will they call the GMAC Bowl now? The TARP Bowl? This College Bowl Game is brought to by Treasury Department. There will be a drawing at half-time...and some lucky winner will be given an opportunity to become a bank holding company. In case it rains, all concession stands are fully stocked with TARPs....so don't let nasty weather get in your way.
GMAC BOWL
This is the kind of outcome you would expect from using inflationary policy to "fix" the economy - a complete decoupling of the markets and the financial system from reality.
Our inflationary system doesn't seem fair does it? Actual production/output is excessively taxed and immediately devalued, while inflation gathering/shuffling is rewarded.
With those incentives, it's no wonder we're at the brink of financial collapse. Can political change be far behind?
CR: Tarp Teat has raised an interesting point. When mp brought up the idea of paying $200+ for entry here, I asked myself if that would've deterred Tanta from posting.
While I agree the number of posts have doubled, along with the trolls, can't we somehow still encourage the Tanta types still out there to share their wisdom?
The commentariat is richer in their participation.
Uncle Billy Smiles writes:
\tSome attorneys are going to be busy. Look what Oxnard and other cities have done to themselves with the help of helpful consultants:
Uncle Billy Smiles | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 10:01 am | #
----
Wow. Just W-O-W!
The fact that the city thought it was a good idea and couldn't figure out how to provide 150 million in infrastructure improvements without taking out loans against their library, soccer field, and PD space is just eye-opening. I'm sure that there are activist citizens on the other side of the equation, but WTF is going on in that dynamic? Creating exotic solutions to Econ/Fin 101 is just mind-boggling especially in this economic climate.
Better question: Oxnard folks voted in all incumbants or new policritters last time 'round?
...that's why there are free "walk-on" baseball camps/tryouts........."the one" might slip past without them.
I'm surprised there isn't a lot more selling today to lock in losses. It certainly looks like the prevailing attitude is to paint the tape instead.
OT:
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- "SpongeBob SquarePants" may be getting squeezed off of Time Warner Cable. Media giant Viacom Inc. said its Nickelodeon, MTV, Comedy Central and 16 other channels will go dark for 13 million subscribers at 12:01 a.m. Thursday if a new carriage fee deal with Time Warner Cable is not agreed upon by then.
----
For the first time in my life, I'd be grateful for the Comcast-TW cable swap in my area.
I hate Comcast, but if they had the gaul to rip The Daily Show and Colbert Report for me over a "fee deal", my circus would be ripped away. And you don't want more idle mind/idle hands missing their circuses...
yagi: don't rightly know. And this is on top of all the auction rate security garbage that municipalities were sold, and cds, etc. etc. Happy New Year.
Let's get Kathleen Brown on the blog as guest poster to help us understand the scope of the public finance, ehem, issues.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - LyondellBasell Industries AF SCA has told lenders it is considering filing for bankruptcy protection, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
man, if those CNBC schmucks could see what i look and feel like right now, they would weep for their jobs (hat tip to eric).
i have explosive diarrhea, a raging rash on my crotch, throbbing hemorrhoids, gout, syphilis, pink eye, compound fracture of both legs, three amputated fingers, festering pus boils on both butt cheeks, a sharp stick in my left eye, i've been scalped with a chainsaw, i got my ear cut off reservoir dog style, got a 9 foot tapeworm, multiple open, gangrenous lacerations (but only on my neck, face, head, chest, and abdomen), and i woke up with my pants unbuttoned after a meeting with Ben and Hank (not sure why i passed out and why my pants were unbuttoned), that's about it....oh, and a deep hangnail on my big toe.
Other than that, i'm good. i'm ready to sprint through 2009. nothing to see here.
....geeze....and I'm eating my cereal....
Now if you only had an advance directive, US Demo...
maybe mp needs a special Cambodian milkshake to get him off of his high horse?
Eric writes:
While you were gone, Eric, I wept for your puts.
fried | 12.31.08 - 10:00 am | #
Yeah.... next time, I'll just rip up my money and throw it in the garbage.
What, and miss several years worth of deductions on the losses?
Surely you jest.
barkingtribe writes:
Gonna be a interesting upcoming quarter. From Bloomberg:
The $8.85 trillion held in cash, bank deposits and money- market funds
The more interesting thing is the FDIC has only $34 billion in insurance funds covering that $8.8 trillio
a bit offtopic but Slovakia hopes euro move brings stability - CNN.com
slovakia adopts euro. so the currency appreciated together with all V4 currencies and was fixed on the top of emerging market currency bubble and now while all other currencies in the region (poland, czech republic, hungary) are falling the slovak crown is pegged to euro and tomorrow will be replaced by euro. good thing, people have extreme saving rate and mortgages were not very exotic and while for a moment it might seem that the peg is bad because of the other V4 countries other side is that you cant plan in polland hungary and czechr republic if their currencies fly dozens of percents per year up and down.
Crewman - It called a printing press.
Eric - Any cookies left?
US Democracy & Economy
Gout is the worst...feels like little pin pricks in your toes...ouch, I would see a doctor for that right away
Better question: Oxnard folks voted in all incumbants or new policritters last time 'round?
yagij
Interesting question. The short answer is that the voters of Oxnard rejected every candidate or initiative that promised change in favor of the status quo. I have referred to Oxnard as the most dysfunctional city in the nation and people thought it was hyperbole. But in that I am not alone. TV personalities Johnny Carson and Gordon Shumway regularly made fun of Fresno-by-the-Sea.
To be honest I can tell you for sure that the LA Times is only scratching the surface of the financial and governance problems in Oxnard. The OEDC is a clearly illegal organization. Brown Act circumventions are legendary. The myriad of developer subsidies include cash to the family of one of the councilmembers. Don't even get me started on the downtown theater complex. Then there's Riverpark which is already dragging a school district under.
I'm surprised there isn't a lot more selling today to lock in losses. It certainly looks like the prevailing attitude is to paint the tape instead.
Gavshire Hathaway | 12.31.08 - 10:27 am | #
If the money's in a 401k or IRA, there are no tax reasons to sell.
I hate Comcast, but if they had the gaul to rip The Daily Show and Colbert Report for me over a "fee deal", my circus would be ripped away
yagij | 12.31.08 - 10:28 am | #
As a proudly cable-free citizen for a few years now, may I recommend you cut off the revenue stream to Comcast ASAP? I would have done it earlier, but it took me awhile to make sure I was able to find the same informaiton through other means, before I shut off the signal.
Honestly, life is soooo much better without cable. Having to use the internet instead I have come to notice the impact of my viewing habits are beneficial. Instead of mindlessly flipping, or zoning out for hours waiting for something to 'come on', I simply find what I want, watch it, and be done with it. No commercials, no waste of time.
Looking back, Im not sure why it took me so long to get away from TV. The grass really is greener over on this side
CR Crowd:
Happy New Year.
Just wanted to say that I continue to be amazed at where this thing has gone since I started lurking Fall 2007, that we are beyond most of the worst case scenarios of the gold/guns/tinfoil hat crowd of 2007, and I still think that this party has just gotten started in earnest.
Keep up the good work and Party Hard.
Eric - Any cookies left?
Barley | 12.31.08 - 10:38 am | #
Oh. My. God.
We brought a shitload back with us on the plane. They went right in the freezer.
We usually eat low-carb (not Atkins, but close) and low sodium. Between the cookies, the bagels (there are no good bagels in the midwest where we live), the pizza (there is no good pizza in Chicago (yeah yeah yeah, sue me. I like 'vi' as an editor too.... and Macs suck!)), and the pirogis, I gained 11 pounds in six days.
Oh the horror of scrolling!
Tarp Teat | 12.31.08 - 10:04 am | #
+1
I have been hanging out here for several years now...not quite from the very beginning, but from fairly early on (the path in the woods motif); I have very litttle of substance to contribute to on-topic discussions of macro-finance, etc., etc., but I've learned a lot, and gotten a lot of good investment ideas. I have engaged in some partisan sniping, but do try to resist generally. I think a paid coment system would really deter/inhibit the ability of new folks to enter the system. The long-time self-annointed experts (you know who you are - from Jas & Sebastian to MP & Dawg - you are self-proclaimed) should recognize that their reps rest squarely on being openly recognized and followed by an open community - the value of their ideas and expertise is a function of public testing and recognition (and anyone who's followed the comments for a while will know which of those I happened to mention has cred due to their track record(s)). In short, both the 'newbie' neophytes (like me) and the seasoned experts need one another.
It just isn't that hard to skip over the noise...the S/N is extraordinarily good here, and even the fling-fests are generally substantive, so I learn something from the debates. We have very few genuine trolls, particularly for an open venue, and they are easily enough ignored. Even with the regularly >100 comment threads these days, the majority is a back and forth between informed and only slightly digressing posters.
The problem of ID/handle hijacking is real, so a system requiring some level of registration seems appropriate. It's easy enough to register yourself using anonymous email - and the level of real-life anonymity provided by using "my_foo" for a handle is just as great as "anonymous" - they're just arbitrary strings. It is a problem for folks who want to masquerade as multiple users, but it seems reasonable to interfere with that level of 'gaming' of the comments.
Ok, back of my soapbox again...
"American Graffiti" Santelli
Video - CNBC.com
hmm i found these quotes from henry ford:
A business absolutely devoted to service will have only one worry about profits. They will be embarrassingly large.
Henry Ford
A business that makes nothing but money is a poor business.
Henry Ford
PUSHING that SPX to 900. Gotta love it.
Hey USDem...Shingles brought on by all that stress to the body can last into the future...maybe years even a lifetime.
maybe mp needs a special Cambodian milkshake to get him off of his high horse?
We usually eat low-carb (not Atkins, but close) and low sodium.
I like 'vi' as an editor too....
Eric | 12.31.08 - 10:46 am | #
Dude...are you my long lost brother?
Happy New Years to all!
maybe mp needs a special Cambodian milkshake to get him off of his high horse?
Ok.. so which beast gave the milk you're drinking nevermind what else they put in it, just curious.
"American Graffiti" Santelli
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?...80403255& play=1
Ben Frank'll Tank Bernanke | 12.31.08 - 10:46 am | #
That was halarious!
Hes wrong of course, but it was halarious!
only someone who only dirves american cars can think that saying "I keep cars until 150,000 miles" means they are good cars.
*MY last Camry was ditched(for another Camry) at 300,000 miles.
PUSHING that SPX to 900. Gotta love it.
Gotta pump up the year end performance of all those mutual funds.
ice, perfect mangoes, some carabao milk and something called ganja
RE: tax loss selling
You can only claim $3000 in losses a year to offset ordinary income for tax purposes. The market is down ~45%, so coming up with $3000 worth of losses is easy and probably already taken. Most people don't have gains this year.
s0mebody writes:
You can only claim $3000 in losses a year to offset ordinary income for tax purposes.
You can carry capital losses forward to offset taxes in later years (I do not remember the expiration period, 7 years?)
ice, perfect mangoes, some carabao milk and something called ganja
i think i feel some envy. you are not very nice to evoke such emotions. bring on the $1000 registrations!!
Gout is the worst...feels like little pin pricks in your toes
Crewman | 12.31.08 - 10:41 am | #
More like a broken bone. It'll make you remember to take your meds.
RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised writes:
As a proudly cable-free citizen for a few years now, may I recommend you cut off the revenue stream to Comcast ASAP?
RevolutionWillNotBeTelevised | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 10:44 am | #
-----
Let me clarify: I've been cable-free since 2004, and the only revenue I have provided my local cable company is for broadband access.
However, I do love me some Colbert Report when I'm visiting friends and family...
You can carry capital losses forward to offset taxes in later years (I do not remember the expiration period, 7 years?)
MrM | 12.31.08 - 11:00 am | #
Federal, yes.
Some states (like New Jersey), no. You just eat the loss over $3,000.
and to rub Anonymous it in my favorite bar on the beach where to obtain said milkshake is called Ganja Bar... they also sell loose joints... haha, off to the beach
Rob Dawg writes:
Interesting question. The short answer is that the voters of Oxnard rejected every candidate or initiative that promised change in favor of the status quo.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 10:42 am | #
----
Basically, they are getting the gov't they deserve or--at least--the gov't they can't remove? Sounds similar to other places around this grand ol' country.
Talking about dysfunctional cities, how many houses will Detroit have to list for under 4k before it becomes a buying opportunity? If you can get 10-100 houses all together for 1 USD each, what would stop someone from just buying up land for the sake of investment and have a large land lot for the heck of it?
[Gavshire Hathaway writes:
I have a lot of Jan options that are now in the red. I'm looking to unload those for tax purposes, although it sucks to have to worry about wash sales]
Better to beg for forgiveness than ask for permission.
I was reading on the Detroit Blog about how people chip in to buy a house so they can use it as a club. Kind of a cool idea.
btw. regarding real estate market in eastern europe slovak republic. a friedn of mine is working for a rich guy who bought many apartments for big money he will never see again. he is now using these apartments for office space and rents it to his employees while he is totaly cash negative on them. he bought them cash and he is losing money bigtime. but at least he has money and bought them cash. now in most cities in slovakia you are 20-30% down from top and the recesion has not started oficialy. the prices have goneup during 2007 100% so they still have a lot to go down and they will the 100% and 120% mortgages are no more offered since december and the market is starting to implode.
Talking about dysfunctional cities, how many houses will Detroit have to list for under 4k before it becomes a buying opportunity? If you can get 10-100 houses all together for 1 USD each, what would stop someone from just buying up land for the sake of investment and have a large land lot for the heck of it?
yagij | 12.31.08 - 11:05 am |
what are HOA fees and taxes in chicago?
Better to beg for forgiveness than ask for permission.
bearly | 12.31.08 - 11:05 am | #
Against anyone or anything else than the IRS, I would agree.
Tarp Teat wrote: "The tone will likely normalize when business as usual returns in January, when the trolls report back to work at walmart and McD."
This is good, CON-bot, very good and I encourage more. Please continue to remove all sympathy for arrogant money-men. You are safe, very safe and no one could ever touch you.
I will have to take the label "troll" if this kind of comment is tolerated by this blog community. Though I don't work at McD's, so I will see you tomorrow and for the rest of the year. I make that pledge on behalf of all the trolls that may be foolishly working instead of simply ganging up and robbing those who presume to spit down upon them.
Resentment as human a quality as hubris. You and other such Cons may just get that accountability you hypocritically demand of others.
Happy New Year, Ken Cooper.
[Against anyone or anything else than the IRS, I would agree.
Eric]
This one is easy to accidentally miss. IRS may question in a letter, but I doubt it. Small potatoes.
Comrade Terry writes:
\tHappy New Year, Ken Cooper.
Comrade Terry | 12.31.08 - 11:10 am | #
-----
I concur.
Happy new year to all.
"Every time the closing bell rings, a billionaire loses his wings."
--bh
New high for the A2/P2 spread today: 615 basis points
. No doubt it's elevated by the end-of-year crunch, but even so, uh-oh!
Countdown just concluded and a lot of boom boom over the harbor: Happy New Year from HK.
Overload of govt sponsored feel good PR going on. And the fireworks should go on a bit longer than usual--theyre blowing from actual buildings in Central to Wanchai. Usually its from barges in the harbor. Cant fathom how they pulled that off. Major property developers up on the dais with the CE Donald. What a spectacle.
2009 would be an interesting year in the most ordinary of circumstances-- it will bring the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen incident, 60th of the founding of the PRC, and 90th of the May Fourth movement. All laden with import for the people, and with tricky passages for the leadership. I imagine the contingency plans are voluminous, come what may.
Happy New Year to CR folk!
Thanks Bearly, I'll keep that in mind. It is quite difficult to keep expiration dates/strike prices straight -- plus the symbols are different -- and the IRS hasn't released specific guidance anyway.
Ambiguity is their problem...
Duke of Con Dao:
damn you!... and have a Great New Year!
Someone posted this yesterday, it is insane, I had no idea how many banks have gotten TARP money. I counted 221 from this aticle. The FDIC is a joke
Bailout Recipients | Eye on the Bailout
get ready for high unemployment coupled with record local shortfalls:
Muni Sales Dry Up as States Face $42 Billion Deficit (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
bloomberg snip/
The combination of the worst financial crisis since World War II and the collapse of the $330 billion auction-rate debt market will leave 41 states and the District of Columbia with shortfalls just as financing sources diminish. Merrill Lynchs Municipal Master Index, which tracks 14,000 bonds, fell 4.6 percent this year, the first decline since a 6.34 percent drop in 1999. The biggest underwriters are merging or leaving the business.
/end snip
[Fair Economist writes:
New high for the A2/P2 spread today: 615 basis points]
BAH. It should be higher. Unless the Fed starts buying junk too. This number is a red herring as the Fed is distorting.
On Microsoft Layoffs:
I have no independant verification regarding 17% layoff number but I'm rejoicing at the prospect of picking up some quality engineers and assigning them to manage our Linux clusters running oracle.
-bh
Ot- Srs players check this out..are th
Eaton Vance Investment Managers - 404 - Page Not Found
From latest 10k
Global markets continue to experience unprecedented volatility as we move into fiscal 2009, amid signs that the current recession may be deep and prolonged. We anticipate a challenging business climate ahead. Because our assets under management at fiscal year end were substantially below our average managed asset levels for fiscal 2008, we will likely experience a significant decline in revenue in fiscal 2009 relative to fiscal 2008 unless market conditions improve. Although we have taken steps to manage our costs in response to current market conditions, we expect our profit margins and net income also to be adversely affected. In this period of turmoil, we maintain our financial flexibility and remain committed to the further development of our business franchise.
Summary
of
EATON VANCE CORP - Yahoo!
Finance
the kicker...
ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA ETF Chart - Yahoo! Finance
thoughts?
msm seems to think that 09 will be the reciprocal great recovery to this round of great recession.
Not so much. 07/08 seemed think the same thing.
I'll check back in 2012 and see which state-owned media outlets are still around.
FE,
Thanks for the stat update - holy crap!
OT, but those that think mp or Dawg or whomever is somehow condescending you're dead wrong. They're just very nice, extremely polite, and very well spoken people that happen to know quite a lot about the topics they choose to address. Oh, and funny -- quite funny, too.
If you're intimidated, well, that's your problem.
blackhat,
Yeah, what happened to that second half '08 recovery we heard so much about? LOL!
A few predictions:
We'll learn about peanut-free and low-carb soup kitchens in 2009.
The market will drop another 20-30%.
Unemployment closes at 12% for 2009.
End of 2009 declarations that 2010 can only be better.
"Furlough" makes it back into the common speak--but is really happy-speak for being laid-off without the benefit of being fired so you can collect unemployment.
The big-two US automakers are too big to fail.
/perhaps more to come
Bear,
Mostly right but Dawg does descend at times to ad hominem...just sayin'
Witty, yep.
econ,
Yeah, we're all human. Well, not Conjure, but that's another matter.
The $8.85 trillion held in cash, bank deposits and money- market funds is equal to 74 percent of the market value of U.S. companies, the highest ratio since 1990, according to Federal Reserve data compiled by Leuthold Group and Bloomberg.
Proof yet again of lies, damned lies and statistics!
The stock market can go up and down without there being a net change in the amount of money in MM accounts. If the stock market declines then the value of MM accounts is higher as % of market cap and vice versa. Completely meaningless statistic.
Never did understand this "money coming into the market" since for every seller there is a buyer so one person puts in exactly the same amount as another person takes out.
Hoo boy, I hear you on being frail humanity - could be a poster child myself...
"what would stop someone from just buying up land for the sake of investment and have a large land lot for the heck of it?"
Property Taxes
JR --> point taken. I rescind the wally/McD comment. It wasn't called for.
Comrade Bear --> I did not mean to imply that the old timers are rude or impolite. I come here to read their posts, too. I usually only get to the threads 12 hours after they are dead, always playing catch-up.
I just think that you have to take the bad to get to the good. Keep it open and free. At most, a light Mish-like registration is acceptable.
Unemployment closes at 12% for 2009.
blackhat | 12.31.08 - 11:29 am | #
IMHO that's a best case number, since 2009 seems to be the true SHTF year for employment in the general economy. We'll see.
Scott said: "...The long-time self-annointed experts (you know who you are - from Jas & Sebastian to MP & Dawg - you are self-proclaimed)..."
I've self-revoked my membership to that club, since clearly I have no unique expertise, only a unique voice and point of view.
Better to simply be an objective observer of what's happening than to be an "expert" who knows better than reality.
(Although parts of my reality continue to remain at odds with virtually everywhere else. Even by Case-Shiller numbers, my local housing market is one of the strongest in the nation.)
Sebastia
12% for U3, and with the structural changes into 1099/contractor and involuntary part time will be a U6 of what, over 20%?
The SHTF for municipal and state governments in 2009, guessing second half - first half SHTF for the private sector.
And that is without a dislocation in the Treasury or currency markets...
Uncle Billy Smiles writes:
Some attorneys are going to be busy. Look what Oxnard and other cities have done to themselves with the help of helpful consultants:
Los Angeles Times -- Business, Technology, Real Estate, Hollywood, Economics, News - latimes.com ...0,4141358.story
That article doesn't mention anything about one of the biggest reasons that sale/leasebacks got so popular with municipal agencies. Basically, a municipal agency pays no taxes, so it can't depreciate assets. But there are a lot of private companies out there looking to reduce their taxes. So you sell them your assets and they depreciate them and get the tax break. You split the tax break in the form of a leaseback that makes the item less expensive than if you didn't do the deal. Both parties benefit at the expense of the taxpayer. Which is why the IRS ruled this an illegal tax shelter recently (but is offering amnesty to break the deals).
tj & the bear,
I'm with you. I predicted the low end of the spectrum. I believe that real figures probably put us between 10-12% today, so I'm just predicting what already depresed "official" figures will say...
I also predict that less complex financial instruments will again be used in the marketplace:
As in, I take this gun, hold it to your head, demand all your money and jewelry...
the original leverage...
/violent crime will sky-rocket as police & prisons go under-financed...
citizen energyecon,
I do believe that treasuries get dumped.
I guess we'll put that on the 09 list.
"Microsoft getting ready to lay off 17% of staff"
Glad to hear that this bloated mess of an organization has finally gotten a clue that it needs to rationalize its operations and hopefully focus itself, instead of throwing money and bodies at every tech trend that comes along. It is of course unfortunate for the individuals being laid off, and I don't wish ill on anyone.
The Puget Sound area is taking a pounding.
Plus, you can wave a final farewell to George Bush's America, the sour megachurches and the gun shops and the liquor barns (usually all in the same mini mall), the giant industrial feedlots and the creationist museums and the prisons overflowing with white collar criminals and hey! Isn't that Scooter Libby, hitchhiking down the highway toward Sodom? Can we take a quick detour up to the Minneapolis airport so I can take one last snapshot of Sen. Larry Craig's favorite "I am not gay" totally gay restroom before it vanishes from the tourist map forevermore? Cool.
Have a happy one!
Even by Case-Shiller numbers, my local housing market is one of the strongest in the nation.
I think you meant to say: one of the less weak
Well, laying people off for Christmas is pretty rude... I'm sure companies will get back to it in January, though.
Rob Dawg writes:
"To be honest I can tell you for sure that the LA Times is only scratching the surface of the financial and governance problems in Oxnard."
Note the subtle suggestion that Prop 13 is the source of their problem.
cd writes:
"Srs players check this out.. thoughts?"
I can't understand SRS, but you would think it is a coiled spring. I had mixed results with EEV and decided to take chips off the table while I gave it more study.
Look what Oxnard and other cities have done to themselves with the help of helpful consultants
Uncle Billy Smiles | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 10:01 am | #
Isn't "Financial Consultant" just another name for a used bond salesman?
Anonymous said: "I think you meant to say: one of the less weak."
Well, so less-weak that it's hard to distinguish between actual price weakness and the bid-ask spread between sellers and buyers in a normal market, but whatever.
The only first-hand knowledge I have of anyone running into housing-price "unpleasantness" was an older couple of my acquaintance who sold their home here over a year ago (at a good price) but then retired to their new home...in Las Vegas.
Sebastia
Re : Layoffs in the Bay Area. I work for a pretty large company of > 10k people. We went big-time into off-shoring so as not to add to permanent head-count. At the beginning of this month we did an accross the board 80-90% cut off all off-shore personnel. Full-time layoffs are coming big time in January, they don't want to impact the tech-side of the company till the end of year rush is done.
Pissed Off In California writes:
"At the beginning of this month we did an accross the board 80-90% cut off all off-shore personnel."
Haven't seen much discussion yet of the follow on effect in these countries as the cut backs become widespread. Gotta hurt those local economies big time. Where were your off-shores located?
The only first-hand knowledge I have of anyone running into housing-price "unpleasantness"
Data is not the plural of anecdote, as you've been told dozens of times, but "whatever".
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,2,0,0,0,0,0.html
Never did understand this "money coming into the market" since for every seller there is a buyer so one person puts in exactly the same amount as another person takes out.
Money on the sidelines is the amount of "new" money that can be created to buy assets. In other words, it is the willingness and ability of market participants to borrow money to buy assets.
I wouldn't expect that there is a lot of money on the sidelines based on either criteria.
Mostly right but Dawg does descend at times to ad hominem...just sayin'
Witty, yep.
citizen energyecon
Well, sometimes I get drawn into responses in kind. It's one of those least bad type of choices. Besides, if I were perfect I'd be (even more) insuffereble.
Comrade V writes:
Rob Dawg writes:
"To be honest I can tell you for sure that the LA Times is only scratching the surface of the financial and governance problems in Oxnard."
Note the subtle suggestion that Prop 13 is the source of their problem.
Actually no. Prop 13 and the revenue stability it engenders is one of the few bright spots for the City. It's problems stem from exotic debt instruments and increasing reliance upon sales taxes. The "problem" with Prop 13 is that it effectively constrained municipal avarice in one sector thus forcing those with larceny in their hearts to look elsewhere. Besides, municipalities are no longer bothered by the limits of Prop 13. They've got any number of circumventions available, not least being Mello-Roos and Special Assessment Districts and for-profit fee structures.
Rob Dawg writes:
"Actually no. Prop 13 and the revenue stability it engenders is one of the few bright spots for the City."
I agree with you, and was simply pointing out suble bias in LAT article. Although I doubt you will ever get any gov't employee to agree that Prop 13 is a bright spot, as long as they can't manage spending stability.
Sebastian,
Not picking a fight but would you please look at Los Angeles Q2 07 and Seattle Q4 08. Now overlay your Carolina region with another 18 month offset and read the future. Here's a start at the Seattle Bubble Blog.
I doubt you will ever get any gov't employee to agree that Prop 13 is a bright spot, as long as they can't manage spending stability.
Comrade V
Bingo. California and California municipalities/agencies do not have anything close to a revenue problem. They have a spending problem. The real problem is that there exists no level of taxation including and even surpassing confiscation that can ever cure a spending problem. The Laffer Curve is flawed but in the extreme case of California it might just be proven correct. I honestly believe that there is no revenue enhancement scheme available in this State that would not result in lower cumulative revenues within 18 months. Instead of the Golden Goose the plans appear to be killing the Golden State. The result will still be the same.
Speaking of the tone of some comments - this place is not supposed to be a support group, with back-slaps and cheerful messages.
Commenters do try to mix information with entertainment, and often times the easiest kind of entertainment is a pie-in-the-face type. Most of it, though, is good humored. And since almost everybody is using aliases, even insults cannot be taken personally
Kicker said: "Money on the sidelines is the amount of "new" money that can be created to buy assets. In other words, it is the willingness and ability of market participants to borrow money to buy assets.
I wouldn't expect that there is a lot of money on the sidelines based on either criteria."
FWIW, there is a real measure of money on the sidelines that is actually cash/cash equivalents and dedicated to investing in stocks. It's "liquid assets of stock mutual funds", found here:
404 : Page Not Found
It's currently (November is the last full month for which there's complete data) at 5.4%. Just for comparison the average for the last decade has been around 4.75% so there's an above-average amount of money available to invest (and it doesn't need to be created by credit), it's just not being invested.
Sort of supports the theory that bull markets and bear markets seem to be much more defined by the willingness of participants to commit their money than by the actual amount of money they have.
Sebastia
Rob Dawg said: "Sebastian,
Not picking a fight but would you please look at Los Angeles Q2 07 and Seattle Q4 08. Now overlay your Carolina region with another 18 month offset and read the future."
CR taught me better than to compare apples and oranges.
If you look at the permit growth, you'll see that in boom times it goes off the charts for the "bubble" states but remains slow and boring in slow and boring states like mine.
Prices and affordability remained moderate where I live, too. Even now:
Los Angeles median price $379,900, mortgage-to-rent 1.6, price-to-income 10.4.
Seattle median price $384,600, mortgage-to-rent 1.55, price-to-income 5.2.
Raleigh median price $259,900, mortgage-to-rent 1.0, price-to-income 3.3.
HousingTracker.net | Residential Real Estate Listing Statistics by City
I completely agree that prices here will be soft as the recession wears on (and probably even post-recession, whenever that is). But whether it will be meaningful or not, given that our growth was far closer to sustainability than in LA or Seattle (Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, etc)? I'll be watching more closely this time, but I still have to see some evidence.
Sebastian
Sebastian writes:
CR taught me better than to compare apples and oranges
But apparently not oranges to oranges. The Carolina Triangle is immune. merely delayed.
FWIW, there is a real measure of money on the sidelines that is actually cash/cash equivalents and dedicated to investing in stocks. It's "liquid assets of stock mutual funds"
Higher than normal amounts of cash in an open ended mutual fund may also indicate that mutual fund managers expect higher than normal redemption requests in 2009.
The NYSE Margin Debt would be a better indicator of how willing people are to use new money to buy stocks. It's well off it's highs but NYSE Margin Debt went through it's own massive bubble.
Combine the banks inability to create new money, the death of the primary dealers (which were the links between the Fed's monetary policy and the stock market), with the large amount of household leverage and it may be a long time before we see new money flowing into assets again.
revro | \t \t \t \t12.31.08 - 11:06 am | #
revro | 12.31.08 - 11:06 am | #
Revro,
Thanks for your posts. Very informative!
Sebastian,
Raleigh has always been special (Broughton class of '60) but here on the coast the economy has turned nasty. Today's headline in the paper that serves New Hanover, Brunswick, and Pender counties says in bold print:
"Home building bust took heavy toll on sales,jobs"
Top story #1 of 2008.
Raleigh was a wonderful place to grow up in the 40's and 50's. 50-70k population and a big swimming pool a couple blocks away (Hayes Barton section).
Jim
The coming year seems full of hope. Economic recovery and ending recession will be painful across many nation, since this financial crisis had direct or indirect effect on many countries. Hope recovery will be more speedy and well be able to get rid of economic mess by the beginning of 2010.
"Raleigh median price $259,900, mortgage-to-rent 1.0, price-to-income 3.3."
With these numbers,coupled with historically low interest rates, Raleigh should be a healthy market with decent sales velocity. I suspect though, sales and prices are down moderately, which means something else is going on. Bad news, indeed, for for the not so healthy markets.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
it sucks to have to worry about wash sales.
I cite the wash sale rules and Schedule D as the primary reason I won't trade stocks. (I do buy and hold for long term though, and manage a 401k.)
The only thing I hate worse than filling out tax forms, is trying to communicate via FAX and e-mail with the IRS when their computers disagree with you on a claim. They even have IRS offices here in Charlotte - but they won't talk to walk-ins. Gawd, do they suck.
What about all of the unemployed illegal aliens and H1B visa workers? Don't they count too?
(Oops, I forgot, there are no unemployed foreign national workers in the US.)
In Ohio, the state unemployment web-site froze up, the telephones were jammed, and there was a two-and-half hour wait on hold if you could get through in order to file a claim. No wonder the number of filings was down. If you can't file, then you won't be counted.
Over the past two days my street in South Florida was power-washed. Each workman received a percentage of the fee and was an "independent" contractor. Since business is very slow, the company had the six individuals share the job rather than allow three workers to complete it start to finish. One of the men used to work for a car dealership in its body shop painting cars.
In short, that fellow went from being an employee to an independent contractor. Not clear if he filed for unemployment benefits along the way or is double dipping. I think the unemployment numbers are filled with stories like this.
US population is up 32% over 1982.
Yes, and how many of those are here legally? My father is from a family of 10 brothers and sisters (no, he's not an immigrant, his parents were not immigrants, and their parents were not immigrants, and their parents were not immigrants). I have 22 cousins, and they have only had 11 children so far in the 2000s. That's 2.2/couple down to 0.5/couple- this exact scenario has been repeated millions of times. The average couple needs to have 2.1 children to maintain a population size. Pre-1960 baby-boomer US population is clearly not growing. Up 32% means that we added 72 million to this country in only 26 years. This growth rate has been sustained ONLY by: 1) illegal immigration, 2) anchor babies born to illegal immigrants, 3) anchor babies born to visa workers, 4) legal immigration, and 5) babies born to legal immigrants. The largely Mexican immigrant population is not assimilating, which is evidenced by Spanish labels on all consumer products and all forms of consumer communication.
Now you see why California, Nevada, and Florida are the epicenter of the mortgage crisis.