Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury drafted broad guidelines for aid to the auto industry that would let officials provide funds to any company they deem important to making or financing cars.
The Treasury already has provided $6 billion in aid to GMAC LLC, the financing arm of General Motors Corp., and up to $17.4 billion in financing for GM and Chrysler LLC, using funds from the $700 billion bank-rescue package.
With todays announcement, the Treasury is giving itself discretion to provide additional aid from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to the industry, including companies beyond the automakers themselves.
Oh and oil is running up now.. any ideas why? OhBoy | 12.31.08 - 2:45 pm | #
NEW YORK, Dec 31 (Reuters) - US crude oil prices jumpedover 10 percent a barrel in thin pre-holiday trade onWednesday, tracking a 12 percent rise in gasoline futures as aslowdown in domestic refinery activity sparked fears oftightening fuel supplies this winter.
When I trade I always start with the premise that I'm probably wrong about what I think will happen next and try to continually validate or repudiate my own views. --ac
I do the same thing, and the last couple months I couldn't figure out if I was wrong, or if I was wrong about being wrong, so I have been treading lightly. I wish for a little more clarity in my trades in '09.
Happy New Year. Be safe tonight. Please don't drink and drive.
Completely OT question but I'm hoping that some of the well-informed & highly skilled (financially) people who post here could offer a few suggestions: the small city I live in got a general obligation bond levy passed to construct a new water treatment plant & a few other water related structures (water tank to increase pressure, stuff like that).
Among the arguments presented in favor of the levy, was that somehow property owners would not pay any additional property tax (partly because some other bonds would be retired, a claim I question). I think the city council et al are unduly optimistic.
But, to rebut the claim of "no new taxes" (& so make life a little difficult for the "we gotta annex, we gotta develop" city council & planning commission members) I need to know:
How do you find out the rating (rating of municipal bonds) of a small city is? (10,000-13,000 year round, more like 30,000 in summer, including hotel/motel population)
Are general obligation bonds considered to be very secure? Or are they now too considered to be more risky given that it seems like bankruptcy of cities is more of a possibility than it seemed to be say, last year?
Do cities this small sell bonds through some state backed entity or what?
How might I estimate (municipal equivalents?) the possible interest rate needed to sell the bonds?
Yes, it would've been better to raise these issues prior to the election, but sometimes other stuff takes precedence. Plus I was hoping other people besides me were tired of the city's grandiose visions.
I was there, then, and unemployed myself, though it wasn't totally unwelcome at the time. What was happening then didn't feel even SLIGHTLY like what's happening now.
I have just begun reading Kennedy's book on the Great Depression, and already can see why it's so well thought of: The guy can write! There is a mention, early on, about farmers who expanded to meet increased food demand during the Great War, and after the war ended all the money they had borrowed to expand production (to profit from a short term situation) caused major problems as prices fell back to normal levels. The mess we're in now seems to me similar in origin, though larger in scale. People borrowed to profit from a situation that seemed to be a good idea at the time, but in retrospect was a terrible misallocation of credit. The future doesn't turn out as predicted (or fantasized) and the borrowers can't pay up. Somebody has probably expressed this a lot better somewhere else, but there are still lots of books I haven't read.
How about something to totally blow your mind... somewhat nerdy but most of the people here should enjoy this.
2009 might see the creation of artificial life. Nothing major - just a simple virus or so but the implications for the future couldn't be more staggering. I kid you not.
Negotiations between Ukrainian authorities and Gazprom have failed. Gazprom to shut off natural gas flow to Ukraine tomorrow, January 1, but will attempt to continue supply to Europe.
The more things change, the more things stay the same...
I think things will be looking slightly better by the end of 2009 as compared to right now, but somehow I'm pretty sure I was a lot more optimistic about 1993...
OT: Microsoft 30GB Zunes are all hosed today and from what I am seeing I don't know if they will be able to fix them without a mass recall. Thinking of buying some puts for a short term trade.
For what it's worth, down 700-800 payrolls for Jan and Feb are quite possible, maybe even likely. That will be a lot of sticker shock for the stock market.
All,
On NPR's Talk of the Nation right now they are inviting listeners to call in about someone of note (to the listener) who passed away in 2008. There are some obscure references. If someone were inclined, maybe they could call in and mention Tanta? I'm at work and can't stay on hold.
Happy New Year, albeit poorer without her.
[Completely and totally over-rated each and every year.
Especially this year.......
Ciao
MS]
All my trades today were tax planning moves. Taking gains to offset losses. Didn't have a very good year, but the stock I want, I have a lot more of. 2007 was a killer year for me and gave a bit back in '08...
friday will most likely be a continuation of the last several weeks. As to say more "up" on ridiculously low volume. I suspect that next week will have more "whooshes" so they can create more space for the massive amounts of redemptions that are coming.
That is one thing that cannot be ignored.....unless they just shut it all off.....
Look at what C just puked out:
Treasury "warrants" for 188.5m common shares. Highly dilutive (even if they dent it)
"Pavel Chichikov - another form of demand destruction perhaps?"
It's a mystery to me what's going on there, but undoubtedly the very complex and fragile Russian-Ukrainian relationship underlies events. This may be a big source of trouble for the new administration.
From what I understand, Ukraine has conveyed its overdue payments via a Swiss intermediary, but Gazprom is also demanding the fines for late payment it has imposed.
Absolute insanity......my guess is they won't last 2009. If you have to do that sort of highly suspect move on the last day of the year (when they think everyone is not looking-like when the announced that Pandit was the CEO at the same exact moment of a fed-release)...you gotta wonder how easy it will be for them to survive the coming "Alt-A train" steaming towards them....
I had a pretty solid 2008. Portfolio was up 386%. That after being down ~50% in december... Fortunately I get to the tax offset for the December losses and I can rebuy puts for cheap.
Treasury Drafts Broad Rules on More Auto Industry Aid (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg headline: Treasury May Provide Funds For Any Co Deemed Crucial to Auto Industry (includes Sonic drive-ins and Whataburgers but not McDonalds since stock dropped less than 15% in 2008)
Treasury Drafts Broad Rules on More Auto Industry Aid
I had been up 48% until about a month ago. Then the great SRS crash took most of that. I plan to regain that in the next three months but you know how those plans go.
I wouldn't have gotten those returns without this Board. Thanks for all your comments & recommendations.
My wins for the year via puts:
*LEH
*FNM
*FRE
*WM
*GGP
*GS
*HIG
Next year looking to profit from the continued slide in financials, insurers, and the CRE and credit card collapse. Favorites right now are SPG, COF, GS. Does anyone else have any CRE favorites? What about VNO? It looks pretty juicy -- though not quite as nice as SPG.
and a very long list of fundamental issues that they continue to deny....too many to list here.
Ciao
MS
Thanks. As for the denial..Why oh why do 'professionals' engage in this? Human nature or do they really think it's bottom time and things are going to turn?
Shotgun shell wading, toilet paper, and insulation...HA! Stuff will have it's uses. Just make sure it ain't the digital stuff. And take small denomiations. Can be used as kindling to fire up the squirrelly stove.
FFDIC writes: - NY Times hp
In 2008, 6 Years of Market Gains Are Lost
(It's fitting NYC will be butt fuck'n cold tonite.)
FFDIC | 12.31.08 - 2:46 pm | #
FFDIC it is a nice blog,can you please watch your filth.
Might I suggest
(It's fitting NYC will be Paulson Fuck'n cold tonite.)
From what I understand, Ukraine has conveyed its overdue payments via a Swiss intermediary, but Gazprom is also demanding the fines for late payment it has imposed. Pavel Chichikov | 12.31.08 - 3:28 pm | #
Damn, did they hire their CFO from a US credit card company?
I've been gradually transferring winnings into more "tangible" assets, rather than our fiat currency. But I have to balance that with expected returns from my shorting/deflation bets. I still think I have some time and money to be made on the downside before the inflation/currency collapse scenario unfolds.
"Why oh why do 'professionals' engage in this? Human nature or do they really think it's bottom time and things are going to turn?"
Survival...nothing more or less.
They don't really believe it IMO....but they have to appear that they do.
A key statistic is going to be tested very soon. If 5% of deposits are requested for withdrawal (i.e. cash) the entire system will be forced to shut down......why? because the system doesn't have it. The Fed's numero uno priority is going to be trying to keep this from happening. They can scream all they want about bailouts or acronym creating programs to soften the blow however it means nothing if you don't have the masses buying up crap to keep the facade going.
.
Wow, what an honor. I just received a job solicitation from the Federal Reserve. They really are serious about cracking down on Bank Fraud, aren't they?
Be a Part of the Central Bank of the United States of America!
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta currently has several openings for Bank Examiners in our Supervision & Regulation division. Ideal candidates will have prior bank/financial regulation experience and/or loan review and/or bank operations experience. A bachelors degree is required with a strong preference for concentrations in finance, banking or analysis.
As the central bank of the U.S. the Federal Reserve Systems main functions include setting monetary policy; bank supervision and regulation; and the operation of a nationwide payment system. The Atlanta Fed's Supervision & Regulation division seeks to promote the safety and soundness of the banking system in the Southeast U.S., foster the stability in financial markets, ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations, and encourage banking institutions to responsibly meet the financial needs of their communities.
Bank Examiners supervise financial institutions by proactively identifying risks through on-and off-site monitoring activities to ensure that the institutions are operating in a safe and sound manner and in compliance with applicable laws and regulations.
The Atlanta Fed has fantastic benefits including world class medical and dental coverage, free public transportation, 401K and pension retirement benefits etc.
.
Thanks, all, for the comments and quips throughout '08.
Can't think of a better bunch to blog the greater Depression with.
Speaking of bailouts, just for kicks, here is a re-print of part of a post I made in May,'08:
"... We shall bail, bail, bail, and we shall sing while we bail. We shall sing a mighty bailing song, and the bailing shall not stop, yea, even though we bail for an hundred years. ..."
threetorches | 05.15.08 - 4:27 pm | #
Nominations are now open for the Mighty Bailing Song, version 2009.
Crude oil made a 23% move intraday. <a href="http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CL.G09.E&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=2>Today's crude chart looks like a compressed version of the last 7 years, save the crash.
Barley -- history says otherwise. Look at Japan. I'm not making huge bets on financials anymore, but I expect them to continue to decline. Not even TARP funds are enough to repair those balance sheets. Earnings are shot.
with the exception of WFC most financials finished pretty close to the HOD...even C with it's $20b puke-fest. Gotta believe that a certain non-savvy Saudi is shitting his pants about now....
"You still haven't listed your favorite candidates for '09. "
Anything that has not already been hammered that is completely dependent on discretionary consumer spending.
My two favs. for this are DIS and AAPL. AAPL has lost alot of value however if you look at how it got there it's easy to see that it has quite a bit more IMO. Wouldn't surprise me if AAPL was a $50 stock by mid-year, if not sooner.
My positions in those are all long dated puts.
On the long side? I'll just defer to Rich as I totally agree with his rationale that commodities are the place to be in '09. There has to be another bubble created...otherwise the system ceases to exist. Can't have that now...can we?
Thanks MS! Interesting on DIS -- entertainment was one of the sectors that held up well during GD1. I'll have to do some research on that one. Completely agree on AAPL.
DIS has $14b of debt to roll over into a market that is not buying any debt no mater what it is. They also have a pretty hefty shelf-registration just waiting to be "activated". Add in bookings are way down and people just are not going to have the money to spend (they didn't in the past however the home ATM allowed them to)....that's gone.
At some point CALPERS is going to start unloading it's shares too.
Would'nt want to hold it with those three events likely to occur very soon.
Disney has been on a tremendous run over the last couple of years, TV side is facing ad revenue drought, parks is economy dependant, film isblooking SAG strike. DIS may be worth a look as a short.
And now to finish cooking the very larger home-made pot of ciopinno (SP?) for a nice dinner this evening. You couldn't pay me to go out after 9pm tonight.....but those who do please enjoy and stay safe.
Unless you are an I-bank analyst...in that case you can...well you know.
Article in the paper today. Local hedgie/horse farmer lost $7.5 billion with madoff. They are stopping the renovations on the horse farm, which has 50 employees. Or had.
I'm trying to wrap my head around having $7.5 billion disappear from your personal balance sheet overnight.
I'm guessing there is some second guessing going on.
Guy spent too much time raising horses and not enough figuring out where the money was.
Once I make my first billion, I'm going to be sure to stick $100 million of it somewhere safe. don't want to pull one of those rookie moves that it appears a bunch of billionaires made.
"My most profitable trades were (LEH, WB, NFLX, SBUX) in that order. All short options.
I'm positive that '09 will be even better."
That attitude is exactly how I have always managed to turn reasonably accurate insights on the future into valuable commissions for my broker on the way up and on the way back down.
Fourth quarter I finally started cashing out gains above a certain level and putting them in my checking account instead of letting it ride. That strategy has been much more successful, resulting in a somewhat unexpected tax liability.
I'm trying to wrap my head around having $7.5 billion disappear from your personal balance sheet overnight.
Because most criminals are stupid. All these people that did business with Madoff knew he was doing something illegal. As long as they made money they didn't care, they aided and abetted
Well, if we're having an end of year discussion...
My casino money is up over 160%. Favorites include Dec 100 strike SPY puts, which if I'd had more balls and held on to my gains would've been closer to 700%.
Also did well in WCI, GE, and my very best friend WM.
Also a shout out to Rich: SLW was a great play. Took it from $2.60 to $4.40 and am hoping to get another nice entry point.
The really piss-poor thing about Madoff is that he BK'ed some charities. If he doesn't get a special place in hell for that alone then there is no justice.
I was investigated by the SEC (or rather a certain family member of mine) in the late 80's for having some securities in an account that they shouldn't have been in and they actually came to my door, threatened me with jail time etc. That this D-bag actively scammed people out of billions of $'s and has the ability to walk the streets is just too much. The SEC will track you down for small time issues and jail you but let the biggest (so far) scam's boss basically walk is what is wrong with society today.
I'd be watching my back if I was him....someone will try something or he'll have some mysterious death ala Ken Lay.
I agree that DIS has had a nice run. However, Disneyland has been packed. I don't know if it is annual passholders not going elsewhere for vacation but over the last 3 months or so, I don't remember the crowds this bad in a LONG time.
As far as attendance and annual passholders go, the pass is 134.00 per year with blackout dates. I can't imagine they make much money on the low end pass.
I don't care about the last 2 days gains and the fact that I lost thousands in the last two days. I'm buying more into my losses. This sucker is going down. The road is a deadend, the can has been kicked down that road as far as it can. I might be a month or two ahead of the curve but if I am, I'll buy more into my losses. '09 will make '08 look good
"As far as attendance and annual passholders go, the pass is 134.00 per year with blackout dates. I can't imagine they make much money on the low end pass."
I have one...you can't go on weekends or any holiday's unless you fork over about $30 or so.
They sell those to people who are planning to go for two days as the tickets for two day's to both parks are priced about $6 cheaper so many people just opt for the annual pass...I did. I may not use it at all but have the option to if I want to.
DIS is always busy from Oct-Dec they have many holiday themed rides...my fav. being the Haunted House done up as the Burton film "nightmare".
Thanks, but I wanted you to hold at least some SLW.
And I kick myself for not doing so all the darn time.
One of my tasks over tomorrow's day off is to figure out the cheapest way to play a commodity surge/dollar collapse. SLW is nice, maybe some of the more solvent gold juniors... will be looking at steel and aluminum as well.
I didn't expect to be back here today, but holiday travel being what it is, I am briefly.
All this discussion of strategies and winners and losers motivates me to make one modest suggestion to celebrate the year end.
For making commodity bets, one might look into the Continuous Commodity Index future. It's expensive (10000 margin), but cash settled at 500x index.
Because of its composition, it tends to be very smooth in the presence of fundamental changes in information, mood, hedge fund holdings, what have you. The unsystematic volatility that plagues a lot of thinner contracts on a day to day basis is averaged out in the indexing.
If one had just taken the F9 (Jan) short when its 15d MA turned lower in July, and covered when that 15d MA turned up last week, it would have returned about 125,000 USD.
Since it is a futures contract, as typical, account P&L is credited or debited every night as good funds, and in the former case, can if desired be withdrawn even as the position remains in place.
I'm mentioning it, of course, not as a speculative vehicle as much as an indicator of economic conditions that has had, for years, a very good track record.
Now back to schedulus interruptus. My luck with baggage handling is lousy on New Year's Eve: one year, arrived HNL with luggage sent to who knows where; two years ago, into Chicago MDW with the women's dresses likewise dispatched elsewhere. Very costly events, both. This year it's I who might not arrive. Much less costly, that, if not as much fun.
MS,
I think many locals get the pass and go on a Mon or Fri, we do. If you work an alternative work schedule, you can go during the week. Or take a day off here and there.
Every passholder knows not to go on a weekend or holiday.
"Dont take any clothers and buy when you land...all you need is shorts, shirt, sandals..."
Reminds me of a time when a friend of mine had a teenage daughter living at home. His wife told him of a social engagement, and he asked, sarcastically, "and is it black tie?"
The daughter heard it and chimed in, "black Thai? Wow, that's really expensive."
Next year looking to profit from the continued slide in financials, insurers, and the CRE and credit card collapse. Favorites right now are SPG, COF, GS.
I agree, but Citi's bailout from a few weeks ago spooked me. Treasury made a huge statement with that one. I made sick money shorting financials this year, but got burned on that one. Will continue to watch, but....
I agree completely on AAPL, SPG shorting and long commodities, and will check up on DIS. Thanks.
One of my favorite plays this year were airline shorts. I'm just entered my third cycle on CAL. It gets pumped up on oil depreciation, then gives back on fundamentals and oil surges.
. An association of German immigrants to America, the Bund had a definite pro-Nazi slant. Disney animator Art Babbitt claimed his boss had a strong interest in, if not outright sympathy for, the Bund:
In the immediate years before we entered the War there was a small, but fiercely loyal, I suppose legal, following of the Nazi party . . . There were open meetings, anybody could attend and I wanted to see what was going on myself. On more than one occasion I observed Walt Disney and [Disney's lawyer] Gunther Lessing there, along with a lot of prominent Nazi-afflicted Hollywood personalities. Disney was going to meetings all the time.
The German filmmaker Leni Riefenstahl, whose documentaries in the mid-30s had helped to glorify the Nazis, claimed that "after Kristallnacht [1938], she approached every studio in Hollywood looking for work. No studio head would even screen her movies except Walt Disney. He told her he admired her work but if it became known that he was considering hiring her, it would damage his reputation."
Gary, I think I would have taken "Do Nothing" over handing out taxpayer money to millionaires and billionaires which is exactly what a Democratically controlled Congress did with TARP I.
"The really piss-poor thing about Madoff is that he BK'ed some charities. If he doesn't get a special place in hell for that alone then there is no justice."
Collectively those charities generated approx. 73M/year in donations.
Sad. But heh, he gets to stay in his million dollar apartment even after saying he told everybody was guilty...justice is not blind!
Hmmm lobsters, shrimp, scallops...I'm having a salami sandwich and heading off to work...Now I'll be thinking about all that seafood all night while I feed the rednecks near lethal doses of alcohol...I do have some nice Scamp I think I'll cook this weekend though with some juicy fat rib eyes that were on sale...
I hope you all have a Happy and Safe New Years! I'm positive you all have enough money for cab fare if necessary so use it if you have too many cocktails.
When you return to the table/people, put the change on a tray and present them the tray. Folks dont feel right taking it all....Worked at a bar for four months and was shown this tiddy...made off like a bandit.!!
"One of my favorite plays this year were airline shorts. I'm just entered my third cycle on CAL. It gets pumped up on oil depreciation, then gives back on fundamentals and oil surges."
"The really piss-poor thing about Madoff is that he BK'ed some charities. If he doesn't get a special place in hell for that alone then there is no justice."
actually, it will be interesting to see which charities are wiped out ... charities can have "management issues" too...
and if they invested with Madoff they were clearly not worth donating to.
I cannot help feeling anyone who invested with Madoff deserves what they get.
Time machine! The nation had just discarded a Bush and elected a president who "could speak English" and was the toast of the corporate world. He was a "new" Democrat, with "new" ideas.
Oh, yes: like deregulation, gutting the social safety net, outsourcing US jobs to smashed labor markets, and goosing the stock market through benefits reductions and downsizing. He talked tough to "dictators" who'd stopped doing Washington's errands and would stand any number of starved children to prove his point.
"I cannot help feeling anyone who invested with Madoff deserves what they get."
Yeah! Almost everybody forgets that the skeleton crew of Israelis was after all..born and bred GERMANS! And look 60 years later...even Hitler would be proud of these Gaza bombers!
Stock up on those rib eye's as it's likely you won't ever see prices like that for a very long time.
Remember the flip side of the grain price bubble was that farmer's sent a large % of there herd to slaughter because they couldn't afford to feed them. The end game of that is coming to supermarket near you soon.
I remember a 1992 cartoon when I lived in Fresno. A had opened his mailbox, holding a letter that said "CA State Warrant" - And he said to his wife "It's not an IOU, more of an I-owe-Me" Bet we'll see that one again soon, too.
One thing is certain: I will be killing a lot of you Anglos. And I kind of look forward it.
You big mouths kind of suck and even this language sucks. I'd rather speak mighty german or even swedish but this pig shit I am stuck until I'll kill you anglocraps...
A worthwhile read for the No-Nothing wingnuts . . . you know who you are:
In that first part I don't see much in the way of arguments, just economic and financial observations combined with some name-calling.
Suggesting Republicans and the "right-wing" philosophy of doing nothing to help people seems irrelevant to the current situation given that Republicans seem to have recently passed this huge welfare program with the medicare D thing.
Plus it seems to make the accusation that "doing nothing to help people" is some evil "malignant" philosophy without really making a case that it was done with malicious intentions (maybe at the time it was).
The more sensible "do nothing" arguments I've seen these days center around the belief that when the government does things to help the economy it typically makes things worse.
If somebody really believes this, are they really "evil" by arguing what they believe to be in the long-term best interest of the economy and the people that live in it?
Seems like it would be much better to attack the reasons for that belief rather than making blanket statements that it's uncaring.
The piece comes across, so far, as an opinion with some tangential facts thrown in to create the appearance of legitimacy.
So far everything I'm hearing about - easier credit and more deficit spending - is nothing more than an uninterrupted continuation of the policies of the past 25 years.
"Republicans seem to have recently passed this huge welfare program with the medicare D thing."
If by welfare, you mean welfare for Big Pharma, then you're right. That is pure corporate pork.
And the point of the piece, which is the first in a series, is to counteract the coordinated and ongoing right-wing disinformation campaign on FDR.
The important takeaway in my view is the GOP ethos of "Fuck you, hooray for me". This works very well for the top 1-2%, but it continues to elude me why another 40-50% of the voting population is routinely taken in by it.
I agree with ac, as well. The only change we're getting is a diaper change. It's still the same ass we've created, and that ass will continue to soil its fitted, or ill-fitted, diapers.
but it continues to elude me why another 40-50% of the voting population is routinely taken in by it.
Gary | 12.31.08 - 6:17 pm | #
Good point. I think up until this point life has been OK for most. Easy credit, flat screens in every room etc. I believe that it is finally dawning on many GOPers that their party (and our gov as a whole) is a sham.
Since so many people here are announcing their winnings for the year, I'll demonstrate just how good a sport I am. Down -12%.
If I had more of the pirate gene I'd advertise as a mutual fund manager. "Sebastian only lost -12% in the Great Crash of '08. How did your mutual fund do?))
Happy New Year to everyone and if you're going to do something stupid tonight make sure it's not the kind of thing that will wind up with you being dead or in jail. Myself, it's champagne and caviar (sort of a James Bond theme only without the formal wear) to the accompaniment of my iTunes collection of oldies, and I don't have to leave the house for anything.
The master is "us". Our labor and spending gives "them" their power.
The most disturbing aspect of this entire crisis is how this dynamic is being upset. Change is happening but it is ALL unintended consequences with a high risk of systemic failure.
Yesterday not being representative of tomorrow is the only certainty.
The master is "us". Our labor and spending gives "them" their power.
It should be "us." But, sadly, it's not. It's the Plutocrats who control and exploit that labor and spending. So long as there are Bread & Circuses, the "us" will gladly overlook such trivialities.
My winnings: bought INTC at 12.28. It got up to about 13.70, so I put a stop loss on it to preserve at least $1.00/share profit. Got stopped out, kept the profit, but it is now above $13.70. Hindsight is 20/20. For a long term holder it is probably a good deal at any recent price.
Sebastian: Since so many people here are announcing their winnings for the year, I'll demonstrate just how good a sport I am.
I'm down 49% in my funds and margin account. Still earning 5% yields though, will have to see how long the earnings hold up. I plan to continue averageing down for a few more years, and tough it out.
I was 90% cash in 2005 - but I started buying in heavily this summer, and the market just kept on tanking.
reptillian writes:
My winnings: bought INTC at 12.28. It got up to about 13.70, so I put a stop loss on it to preserve at least $1.00/share profit. Got stopped out, kept the profit, but it is now above $13.70. Hindsight is 20/20. For a long term holder it is probably a good deal at any recent price.
reptillian | 12.31.08 - 6:44 pm | #
On second thought, if it's true that Microsoft is laying off 17%, then there may be better buys on INTC, later, as in "next year."
aClem writes:
I have just begun reading Kennedy's book on the Great Depression, and already can see why it's so well thought of: The guy can write!
That's good to know. I finished Krugman's latest, and the two by Talib (Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness) and I'm craving more. So I'll have to pick that one up.
For what it's worth, down 700-800 payrolls for Jan and Feb are quite possible, maybe even likely. That will be a lot of sticker shock for the stock market.
Turbo | 12.31.08 - 3:19 pm | #
We'll find out a week from Friday. Should be good for a 500 point rally. Cause if it comes in really bad, the Fed will cut rates! Yeah, that's the ticket.
[The important takeaway in my view is the GOP ethos of "Fuck you, hooray for me". This works very well for the top 1-2%, but it continues to elude me why another 40-50% of the voting population is routinely taken in by it.
Gary ]
Gary, I'm glad you're so easily impressed by the labor/teacher/govt... union disinformation campaigns.
Sad. But heh, he gets to stay in his million dollar apartment even after saying he told everybody was guilty...justice is not blind! Barley | 12.31.08 - 5:31 pm | #
All-in, my total net worth is up 27% Y-O-Y, but I'm down 16% from my peak new worth in August. That's based on a diversified portfolio of municipal bonds, real estate, gold, oil, and equities in addition to salary and capital gains on the sale of a business.
Overall, my absolute worst trades of the year have been SRS and SKF, which cost me a little over 15% of my net worth.
As long as we are discussing returns, mine was about 3-4% for 2008 - average interest rate on my CDs.
But nary a nickel lost, having gone all cash in mid 2007.
A major victory, given the alternative had I not liquidated my 401k and rolled it into an IRA. Or had I taken the Smith Barney rep's suggestion of a "safe" investment: VSLAX. What a load that fund is.
Airbus and Boeing may end up with as many as 200 new planes without buyers next year because airlines are unable to obtain funds to pay for them amid the global credit squeeze.
Eddy Pieniazek, a director of airline industry consultant Ascend, said yesterday: "There is a funding gap and we do not really know where the money will be coming from."
My trading acct - DOWN 8%. If I factor in Cap gains & dividends, my stocks lost more. Haven't done an official tally.
My 401k - UP 6%. First time in years that my 401k total tops my trading acct (contributed heavily and got full match contribution).
This was a tough year. Option premiums thru the roof, commodities crashed and viscious swings with relentless bear market drops that I got out of too early. I suspect few made money this year.
My top gainer - GGP. If it weren't for that bright spot I would be in far worse shape.
The important takeaway in my view is the GOP ethos of "Fuck you, hooray for me". This works very well for the top 1-2%, but it continues to elude me why another 40-50% of the voting population is routinely taken in by it.
I think there's a problem with that kind of mentality in this country, but I don't think it's something specific to the Republicans. Political parties and ideologies tend to be very transient and superficial devices. Kind of like two arbitrary teams made up to get people interested in the political process.
IMO it marginalizes a very serious cultural problem we have to slap a political label on it.
Below is a link to a GREAT blog written by a woman who works at a PE firm. For whatever reason, she hasn't been posting much, lately, but this is her latest (posted 12-24-08).
AC -
Up until 2002 I considered myself an independent and tended to vote GOP due to a civil liberties bent.
At this point we have a two party system and one has to take sides to be even remotely effective. Pick a party and attempt to make it better. i'd prefer a european style parliamentary system that allowed multiple parties to flourish but we have what we have for now.
bearly and papasloth - you can't count your new contributions and non-investment earnings when calculating your returns, who is your accountant, Friehling and Horowitz CPA?
bearly and papasloth - you can't count your new contributions and non-investment earnings when calculating your returns, who is your accountant, Friehling and Horowitz CPA? Gary | 12.31.08 - 7:20 pm | #
My total net worth is the only number that matters to me personally, my investment returns are not a particularly interesting measure to me, in and of themselves. The IRS tends to split things up in all sorts of weird ways, which are beyond my comprehension.
If you're a civil liberties bent Republican, I must be a staunch conservative Democrat. Reality check- The ACLU is a radical left wing apparatchik of the Democrat party.
PapaSloth writes:
bearly and papasloth - you can't count your new contributions and non-investment earnings when calculating your returns, who is your accountant, Friehling and Horowitz CPA?
Gary | 12.31.08 - 7:20 pm | #
My total net worth is the only number that matters to me personally, my investment returns are not a particularly interesting measure to me, in and of themselves. The IRS tends to split things up in all sorts of weird ways, which are beyond my comprehension.
So sad, yet another money worshiper. DkDkDK | 12.31.08 - 7:26 pm | #
More like a food, beverage and shelter worshipper. If people were a little more concerned with feeding and sheltering themselves, and a little less concerned with what the government can give them, the world would be a better place.
[bearly and papasloth - you can't count your new contributions and non-investment earnings when calculating your returns]
Not counting contributions in returns. Simply saying the balance exceeds my trading acct in 401k. 401k is in a Treasury & Fixed return fund since July07.
Look on the bright side, if the national debt is divided among all Americans, illegal aliens, and foreign nationals, we only owe about $37,000 each- the price of a decent SUV.
When I was a young'un, I had plenty of time and not many assets, so I played the market recklessly and gained and lost fortunes.
Now that I'm an older fart with a modestly high net worth, I try not to gamble it all away on a single spin of the roulette wheel. That tends to lower returns overall, which the reasonable trade-off for keeping your assets safe.
They don't talk about "risk tolerance" for nothing, you know. It's not all about total returns (though big returns are nice, of course, and if I were the jealous type, I'd be jealous of Gavshire Hathaway).
My buddy just won a bid on a house in Woodland, CA for 100k. Its value peaked at 387k in 2005. The property taxes are only $250/year, because the property was purchased for only 25k many years ago. That's the problem in California- the property taxes are too low (never thought I'd say it). He'll be saving nicely for retirement with a payment of only $560 per month (combined income of over 90k), and $1000/year in property taxes for the whole time that he owns the house.
The ACLU is a radical left wing apparatchik of the Democrat party.
DkDkDK | 12.31.08 - 7:25 pm | #
Card carrying member since 2001.
bearly, duly noted on your returns.
papasloth, on the other hand - I also earned money and saved it this year, paid off debt and built my bank account up. And that of course is the important goal . . . but it is a totally different measure than what others were describing.
So sad, yet another money worshiper. DkDkDK | 12.31.08 - 7:26 pm | #
Then you must support NAMBLA, partial birth abortions, and terrorists' rights. Good for you! Happy New Year! DkDkDk | 12.31.08 - 7:44 pm | #
My, what an unpleasant person you are. I hope you find something to be happier about in the new year, and that your disposition improves as a result. Wine, women and laughter to you, my friend!
PapaSloth, did ya swing for the fences on any fliers? Even tho I'm a member of the demographic that should be in wealth preservation mode I took a few home run swings this year. The way I see it, the wealth I could preserve won't be enough to enjoy. I need to hit a few outta the park. That's why I have a trading acct.
Earlier comments (I've skipped the last half, after all I still "sorta" have a life) caused me to think about the 2009 retirement plan withdrawal "holiday" that will allow retirees to not take any minimum amount out of their account.
In retrospect, this is just as much (probably more) about keeping the funds liquid than "forcing redemptions by J6P when the market is down" as has been advertised.
AC -
Up until 2002 I considered myself an independent and tended to vote GOP due to a civil liberties bent.
At this point we have a two party system and one has to take sides to be even remotely effective. Pick a party and attempt to make it better. i'd prefer a european style parliamentary system that allowed multiple parties to flourish but we have what we have for now.
bearly and papasloth - you can't count your new contributions and non-investment earnings when calculating your returns, who is your accountant, Friehling and Horowitz CPA?
Gary | 12.31.08 - 7:20 pm |
Maybe the more interesting question is whether these problems we have are going to be addressed by the political process or in some other way.
I don't know the answer to this, but my personal belief is that any meaningful change is going to come more from individual initiative than from the political system or the government.
Look at the civil rights movement, for example. Were the advances in civil rights last century a product of actions by the government/political system, or were these merely official reactions to something in the popular will - individuals and groups that were motivated by the belief that the government wasn't interested in solving their problems.
This is why I worry about political agendas that promote the idea of a compassionate government that solves peoples problems:
If a meaningful solution is only possible through popular will, or changes that only individuals or smaller organizations can make in their beliefs and behavior, promises of bureaucratic solutions may subdue that response when it is needed most, or worse, may be an intentional ruse to maintain the status quo by pacifying people with false promises.
ac - [getting wealthy in socially destructive ways]
I share your sentiment. But I need to prepare for the bleak future, so, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.
bearly | 12.31.08 - 7:33 pm |
I'm not talking about trading or speculation.
I'm talking about deliberate coercion and deception done for personal gain with the knowledge that you're causing social harm.
Betting that stocks will go down, for example, isn't fundamentally abusive. Joining up with other speculators to intentionally depress a small company's stock for profit is. Likewise for getting on TV everyday when you know damn well there's a speculative bubble and screaming Booyah!
If you're doing any of that stuff, shame shame shame...
DK- your last comment to Gary was not only unnecessary, but rude, to say the least, but in my opinion, Gary's parting shot was worse, in that he resorted to a vileness exceeding your own - please quit while you're ahead.
Net worth down 4% for the year. And I'm very happy about it...
Was up 15% in July and I started seeing the palm trees swaying in the breeze in my Costa Rican retirement bungalow. (Retirement euphoria, I now know, is my danger signal). Got creamed on PM miners and forex (somehow I doubt I'm the only one). Started clawing back with Puts on AAPL, RIG and SPY (could have made a lot more if I'd had the nerve to hold longer).
Thanks to everyone in the CR community for all the education and help. Happy New Year to one and all!
Oooh cool. We get to brag about this year's winnings? My wealth was divided evenly, in 1/3 portions between gold, I-Bonds and Put option trading account.
Gold held since '05, so a small gain there. I-Bonds owned since '05 gave a modest, risk-free return (5% or more, and no CA state taxes!)
Put options showed an after-tax gain of over 100%, thanks to all of the banks, investment banks, tech bubble stocks, retailers and of course, the casinos!
Sad to see 2008 behind us!
Now, if only I hadn't bought all of those SRS shares in my IRA account!
I also wanted to mention that I saw that movie "The Day the Earth Stood Still" the other day. The most unrealistic part was, after the aliens landed in Central Park, and the giant robot started blowing up army tanks and planes, they showed world markets tanking 50% or so. Obviously, the destruction of the entire human race at the hands of alien invaders had been priced in and when it actually happened, should have been good for a 2-3% pop in the S&P.
joe after the 12 pack writes:
One problem I see in America is ignorance leads to victimization. We got a hell of a lot of victims.
joe after the 12 pack | 12.31.08 - 8:11 pm | #
I don't know if it's taught in high schools yet, but they really need to make mandatory a financial decision making course. You know, how to figure payments on a car, house, etc. Lots of financial ignorance out there.
Obviously, the destruction of the entire human race at the hands of alien invaders had been priced in and when it actually happened, should have been good for a 2-3% pop in the S&P.
max flatow | 12.31.08 - 8:25 pm | #
Oh at least 3%. Can't wait for the next earthquake (or a nuke)to really put the market in rally mode. All that rebuilding will create jobs and help the economy grow. Something like that anyway.
A friend of mine bought a house, with an exploding ARM of course, but the broker did not include the property tax in the monthly payment. So they were a little surprised to get a notice from the county.
One of my most valuable Jr. HS classes was 8th grade "Junior Business Training" which was a requirement.
I am a graduate of 1969 majored in dumbbell math and English. Still very bad at English but the simple math did very well by me financially. I am amazed at many young people lack of basic skills.
[Why? My realtor figures all that out for me.
.
Broward Horne ]
LOL! My brother went to his accountant (tax preparer) before he purchased a $670k house in CA. Brother said the accountent told him he could afford it. He went BK about 10 yrs ago on similar advice. I was in shock.
Sadly, I was forced to part with all my hugely underwater SRS holdings today for tax purposes. NOw, I expect it to rocket up based on a reconnection to reality in January before I can buy back in (31 day window when I cannot buy SRS to ensure tax losses can be recognized on 12/31 sale). Like many others above, I was way up on the year (150%) in mid November (and committed the sin of pride) and now I am about even (and not so proud).
The bigger question for many realistic observers (aka bears) is that the government has completely eliminated fundamentals, at least in the short term. I am confident in what will happen to the economy, but I have NO idea what the government will do- though I expect them to make losers into winners and vice versa.
With regard to REIT stocks, what is the case for optimism that led to the huge, Pilgrim-sobering SRS crash of the last 5 weeks? I just don't get it.
[With regard to REIT stocks, what is the case for optimism that led to the huge, Pilgrim-sobering SRS crash of the last 5 weeks? I just don't get it.
Pilgrim ]
I shared in the pain, but traded around some of it.
My sense is some marginal improvement in credit markets, VIX declining and short covering combined with the natural decay of ultra funds that decimated SRS. SRS is wonderful for sharp moves and a spiking VIX. Not something you can count on for long periods...
PapaSloth, did ya swing for the fences on any fliers? Even tho I'm a member of the demographic that should be in wealth preservation mode I took a few home run swings this year. The way I see it, the wealth I could preserve won't be enough to enjoy. I need to hit a few outta the park. That's why I have a trading acct. bearly | 12.31.08 - 7:51 pm | #
I have a smallish (15% of net worth) daytrading account to keep it interesting. Ironically, my biggest gains were on URE and MS short-term longs. I also did pretty well selling deep out-of-the-money calls when the VIX was very high. My gains there were more than offset by losses on SKF and SRS. I have high hopes on my GLD and USO longs.
The big news for me this year was the awful performance of my Oregon state municipal bond funds. Those suckers were supposed to be relatively safe, but they managed to net -30% before starting to recover over December. Safe my ass.
The single biggest win for me was the Bank of America Accolades American Express card, which entitled me to free membership with Priority Pass. All the free airport cheese I can eat! Woohoo!
Eric writes:
What do you base that on? IYR increses 50%?
Igor | 12.31.08 - 3:36 pm | #
It's a double-short ETF. You can be right on direction, and even timing, and still lose big to volatility.
Eric | 12.31.08 - 4:01 pm | #
I keep hearing this about the double down short Pro Shares. All I know is TWM DD Short on the Russell 2000 was good to me in 08. I held it for 6 months, +80% on that trade alone.
Obviously, the destruction of the entire human race at the hands of alien invaders had been priced in and when it actually happened, should have been good for a 2-3% pop in the S&P.
max flatow | 12.31.08 - 8:25 pm | #
LOL and now for something completely different. I hope this guy is wrong but he makes more sense to me than anyone else.
I keep hearing this about the double down short Pro Shares. All I know is TWM DD Short on the Russell 2000 was good to me in 08. I held it for 6 months, +80% on that trade alone. Topher | 12.31.08 - 9:15 pm | #
No one is denying you can make money on them.
But the fact that Igor has to ask "based on what, IYR increasing 50%?" shows that many investors have no idea how these things actually work.
I've played with SRS and others. I doubt I'll do so again (other than day or two day trading), after running some spreadsheets and montecarlo sims myself. I'll stick with options. At least with options, when you're short vol, it's obvious that you're short vol.
DkDkDk -- you are so silly. I'm a member of NAMBLA and the ACLU, and I can tell you that neither organization supports partial birth abortion.After all, where would we get our underage little boys to rape and murder if all those irresponsible straight people aborted their delicious little fetuses.At least, please be logical!Happy New Year. DkDkDk(Unrated) writes: \tGary writes: The ACLU is a radical left wing apparatchik of the Democrat party. DkDkDK | 12.31.08 - 7:25 pm | #
Card carrying member since 2001.
Then you must support NAMBLA, partial birth abortions, and terrorists' rights. Good for you! Happy New Year! \t DkDkDk | \t \t \t \t12.31.08 - 7:44 pm | #
I keep hearing this about the double down short Pro Shares. All I know is TWM DD Short on the Russell 2000 was good to me in 08. I held it for 6 months, +80% on that trade alone. Topher | 12.31.08 - 9:15 pm | #
It's not just the double short Pro Shares, it's all the leveraged ETFs (URE, SRS, SKF, UYG, FAS, FAZ, TNA, TZA, ERY, ERX, etc.).
A much-repeated example will illustrate: Let's say the Russell 1000 Energy moves up 3% on day 1, up 3% on day 2 and down 6% on day 3. For each dollar invested, this will return 1.031.03.94=.997 cents. Now consider ERX, which returns 3X the daily movement of the Russell 1000 Energy. For each dollar invested in ERX over the same period, it will return 1.091.09.82=.974. On the other hand, ERY returns 3X the inverse of the daily movement of the Russell 1000 Energy. It will return (1-.09)(1-.09)(1+.18)=.977. So both the ERX and the ERY will have lost more than the underlying index over the same period.
Given that stocks tend not to move in a straight line, it is very very risky to hold these for long periods. There's a real tailwind.
But the fact that Igor has to ask "based on what, IYR increasing 50%?" shows that many investors have no idea how these things actually work.
And your initial response showed you have no idea how these things actually work hot shot. Driving SRS to "zero" as you stated is of couse possible but the rise in IYR would have to be very steep and continual, highly unlikely. Why do you state that I have no "idea how these things actually work"? You know me? Have we discussed this at length and my lack of understanding was apparent? What you get greedy and hold onto it at $295 and ending up losing?
Driving SRS to "zero" as you stated is of couse possible but the rise in IYR would have to be very steep and continual, highly unlikely
A steep and continual decline over time will not drive SRS to zero. It goes asymptotic as it approaches zero over time. A 50% move higher in the Dow Jones Real Estate Index in a single day would cause SRS to go to zero. A move over time would not do this.
Ex: The index is 100. SRS is 100. URE is also 100. Day 1 the index increases to 125 or 25%. SRS loses 50% and drops to 50. URE gains 50% and goes to 150. Day 2 the index returns to 100 by dropping 20%. SRS gains 40% and rises to 70. URE loses 40% and drops to 90.
Same setup index is 100, SRS is 100 and URE is 100. Day 1 the index rises 50% to 150. SRS loses 100% and goes to 0. URE gains 100% and goes to 200. Game over for SRS.
Before you accuse someone of not understanding something Igor you should make sure you understand it yourself.
Did you mean headwind? Anonymous | 12.31.08 - 9:42 pm | #
Heh, yep. Headwind.
What do you consider long periods? I've got SRS at $55 and I'm not worried...yet. Anonymous | 12.31.08 - 9:42 pm | #
Perform the following exercise: Go to Yahoo financials and download the historical prices for both URE and SRS. Now create a spreadsheet with the Adj. Close for both stocks, and in the third column, multiply the price of URE by the price of SRS. Now graph the third column, and reverse the X axis so that time is moving in the right direction. See how the product falls and falls steadily, and where there's a real sharp dropoff when the volatility went up as a result of the Sep/Oct/Nov market crash? That's the headwind you have to make up. How long you choose to fight this headwind is up to you...
I know I wished for lower house prices in 2005, and found myself morbidly watching a recession unfolding. And soon, when my global US-based employer steps up its attack on US-based employees, it'll become a depression. I'm in the best position I've ever been in, though, to buy a house!
So far everything I'm hearing about - easier credit and more deficit spending - is nothing more than an uninterrupted continuation of the policies of the past 25 years.
Yes, AC, that is the point I was trying to make. Obama's "change" is a rebranding of an old dog and pony show.
His ersatz change might yet morph into something meaningful, but he's no reformer. Only crisis can shake up this calcified system.
Mike in Long Island writes:
Driving SRS to "zero" as you stated is of couse possible but the rise in IYR would have to be very steep and continual, highly unlikely
A steep and continual decline over time will not drive SRS to zero. It goes asymptotic as it approaches zero over time. A 50% move higher in the Dow Jones Real Estate Index in a single day would cause SRS to go to zero. A move over time would not do this.
Both examples are accurate though mine is more feasible. Of course IYR gains 50% in one day (LOL) SRS would be bust. But, a steep continued climb of IYR could also drive SRS to zero. And I don't need Mike from Long Island to give me advice on how to respond to someone who accuses me of not knowing what I'm talking about. OK Mikey?
But, a steep continued climb of IYR could also drive SRS to zero. Igor | 12.31.08 - 9:53 pm | #
The price of SRS times the price of URE was 4108.924 back on 2/2/2007. It was 294.118 on yesterday's close. That's close enough to zero for my purposes, but I've done dumber things with my money.
Bloomberg aka kaboomberger in my lexicon, was almost first with the story, but the trade papers have been better since. Much like the shipping story, actually.
Endgame: not positive. Bit like ship and container orders. Add trade credit woes.
Sounds like we agree. Happy New Year!
Mikey in Long Island
We agree. Happy New Year. I don't claim to be a guru or know-it-all but, when SRS is hitting it's 52 week lows today with the near term future of CRE, I'm sensing many are whistlin past the graveyard and am not alone in that belief.
I agree these aren't long term holds but what's more important is where you buy in at. Iggy | 12.31.08 - 10:19 pm | #
What's important is where the IYR is and where the market is going... The actual dollar value of URE or SRS is irrelevant, since they both move up and down against the IYR in a non-linear fashion. SRS could be 240 when the IYR is 30, or SRS could be 50 when the IYR is 30. In either case, SRS could be just as cheap or expensive. That's hard to wrap your head around, and sounds like bull, but it's really fundamental to understanding how to play these.
King
Damn......
msnbc.com has a feature on "famous last words" of the financial crisis....
and Dick Fuld's "I will punish the shorts" doesn't make the grade.
Wow,
By Rebecca Christie
Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury drafted broad guidelines for aid to the auto industry that would let officials provide funds to any company they deem important to making or financing cars.
The Treasury already has provided $6 billion in aid to GMAC LLC, the financing arm of General Motors Corp., and up to $17.4 billion in financing for GM and Chrysler LLC, using funds from the $700 billion bank-rescue package.
With todays announcement, the Treasury is giving itself discretion to provide additional aid from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to the industry, including companies beyond the automakers themselves.
that would let officials provide funds to any company they deem important to making or financing cars.
nova | 12.31.08 - 2:41 pm | #
This is going to get worse, not better, once the Democrats take over.
Just bail everyone out already!
Oh and oil is running up now.. any ideas why?
Markets Limp Into 2009 After a Bruising Year - NY Times
In 2008, 6 Years of Market Gains Are Lost
(It's fitting NYC will be butt fuck'n cold tonite.)
Oh and oil is running up now.. any ideas why?
OhBoy | 12.31.08 - 2:45 pm | #
NEW YORK, Dec 31 (Reuters) - US crude oil prices jumpedover 10 percent a barrel in thin pre-holiday trade onWednesday, tracking a 12 percent rise in gasoline futures as aslowdown in domestic refinery activity sparked fears oftightening fuel supplies this winter.
PapaSloth,
Thanks.
FFDIC,
"(It's fitting NYC will be butt fuck'n cold tonite.)"
So hell IS freezing over then?
Nostrovia,
Tenth.
When I trade I always start with the premise that I'm probably wrong about what I think will happen next and try to continually validate or repudiate my own views. --ac
I do the same thing, and the last couple months I couldn't figure out if I was wrong, or if I was wrong about being wrong, so I have been treading lightly. I wish for a little more clarity in my trades in '09.
Happy New Year. Be safe tonight. Please don't drink and drive.
I need some new tires and a carwash, can I get TARP funds? I'll rebate a lemon air freshener to them.
New Year's Eve, and with it comes tax loss selling. Hope you want some TBT at market close, Mr. Market!
Completely OT question but I'm hoping that some of the well-informed & highly skilled (financially) people who post here could offer a few suggestions: the small city I live in got a general obligation bond levy passed to construct a new water treatment plant & a few other water related structures (water tank to increase pressure, stuff like that).
Among the arguments presented in favor of the levy, was that somehow property owners would not pay any additional property tax (partly because some other bonds would be retired, a claim I question). I think the city council et al are unduly optimistic.
But, to rebut the claim of "no new taxes" (& so make life a little difficult for the "we gotta annex, we gotta develop" city council & planning commission members) I need to know:
How do you find out the rating (rating of municipal bonds) of a small city is? (10,000-13,000 year round, more like 30,000 in summer, including hotel/motel population)
Are general obligation bonds considered to be very secure? Or are they now too considered to be more risky given that it seems like bankruptcy of cities is more of a possibility than it seemed to be say, last year?
Do cities this small sell bonds through some state backed entity or what?
How might I estimate (municipal equivalents?) the possible interest rate needed to sell the bonds?
Yes, it would've been better to raise these issues prior to the election, but sometimes other stuff takes precedence. Plus I was hoping other people besides me were tired of the city's grandiose visions.
Any assistance appreciated.
FDIC: Regional Economic Conditions (RECON)
FDIC RECON report...
I was there, then, and unemployed myself, though it wasn't totally unwelcome at the time. What was happening then didn't feel even SLIGHTLY like what's happening now.
I have just begun reading Kennedy's book on the Great Depression, and already can see why it's so well thought of: The guy can write! There is a mention, early on, about farmers who expanded to meet increased food demand during the Great War, and after the war ended all the money they had borrowed to expand production (to profit from a short term situation) caused major problems as prices fell back to normal levels. The mess we're in now seems to me similar in origin, though larger in scale. People borrowed to profit from a situation that seemed to be a good idea at the time, but in retrospect was a terrible misallocation of credit. The future doesn't turn out as predicted (or fantasized) and the borrowers can't pay up. Somebody has probably expressed this a lot better somewhere else, but there are still lots of books I haven't read.
OT:
Some serious cliff diving (not for the faint of heart).
http://tinyurl.com/4tsg5d
Posting this again from the last thread.
How about something to totally blow your mind... somewhat nerdy but most of the people here should enjoy this.
2009 might see the creation of artificial life. Nothing major - just a simple virus or so but the implications for the future couldn't be more staggering. I kid you not.
Words: Who, What, When: 2009: Artificial Life? Keep your eye on Craig Venter
Enjoy and Happy New Year all!
dow 9,000, here were come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Negotiations between Ukrainian authorities and Gazprom have failed. Gazprom to shut off natural gas flow to Ukraine tomorrow, January 1, but will attempt to continue supply to Europe.
BBC NEWS | Europe | Russia-Ukraine gas talks collapse
Happy New Year to the commentariat. Off to rustle up a prosperity supper to serve tomorrow. Yeah, I know...but it's a tradition.
Black-eyed peas, cornbread, ham and a mess a greens.
anyone got enough balls to short this market, since there's a big un-enjoyment number coming out pre-market on Friday?
Pavel Chichikov - another form of demand destruction perhaps?
HOU.TO on a tear!
The more things change, the more things stay the same...
I think things will be looking slightly better by the end of 2009 as compared to right now, but somehow I'm pretty sure I was a lot more optimistic about 1993...
"New Year's Eve, and with it comes tax loss selling."
Completely and totally over-rated each and every year.
Especially this year.......
Ciao
MS
Hopefully we can get oil up 14% 5 days in a row.
Rising oil prices were the only thing standing in the way of the Federal Reserve's scorched earth policy earlier this year.
OT: Microsoft 30GB Zunes are all hosed today and from what I am seeing I don't know if they will be able to fix them without a mass recall. Thinking of buying some puts for a short term trade.
MS, which way do you think it goes on Friday? Continuation of uptrend on light volume, or reversal of the tape painting?
For what it's worth, down 700-800 payrolls for Jan and Feb are quite possible, maybe even likely. That will be a lot of sticker shock for the stock market.
All,
On NPR's Talk of the Nation right now they are inviting listeners to call in about someone of note (to the listener) who passed away in 2008. There are some obscure references. If someone were inclined, maybe they could call in and mention Tanta? I'm at work and can't stay on hold.
Happy New Year, albeit poorer without her.
Eric-
I've been adding to shorts for the last two weeks. AAPL being the one I've added the most in.......
The last two weeks have been nothing more than window dressing (check volumes) for that all important YE print.
look at GS over the last few days......ridiculous.
Ciao
MS
That will be a lot of sticker shock for the stock market.
Turbo | 12.31.08 - 3:19 pm | #
TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[Completely and totally over-rated each and every year.
Especially this year.......
Ciao
MS]
All my trades today were tax planning moves. Taking gains to offset losses. Didn't have a very good year, but the stock I want, I have a lot more of. 2007 was a killer year for me and gave a bit back in '08...
friday will most likely be a continuation of the last several weeks. As to say more "up" on ridiculously low volume. I suspect that next week will have more "whooshes" so they can create more space for the massive amounts of redemptions that are coming.
That is one thing that cannot be ignored.....unless they just shut it all off.....
Look at what C just puked out:
Treasury "warrants" for 188.5m common shares. Highly dilutive (even if they dent it)
Lovely......
Ciao
MS
SRS getting smacked today, almost time to buy some more.
YouTube - Happy New Year 2009
Happy New Year 2009 Inspirational Quotes
The last two weeks have been nothing more than window dressing (check volumes) for that all important YE print.
MS | 12.31.08 - 3:21 pm | #
I agree.... I think I will be shorting some more soon. Looking at doing more spreads than outright puts next year.
Although..... vols are (relatively) low right now, so maybe just a reload or two.
Hard to believe VIX ~40 is "low". I was selling VIX 10 ans 12 puts in Feb of 2007.......
"Pavel Chichikov - another form of demand destruction perhaps?"
It's a mystery to me what's going on there, but undoubtedly the very complex and fragile Russian-Ukrainian relationship underlies events. This may be a big source of trouble for the new administration.
From what I understand, Ukraine has conveyed its overdue payments via a Swiss intermediary, but Gazprom is also demanding the fines for late payment it has imposed.
C just "issued" $20b in shares to the treasury.
Absolute insanity......my guess is they won't last 2009. If you have to do that sort of highly suspect move on the last day of the year (when they think everyone is not looking-like when the announced that Pandit was the CEO at the same exact moment of a fed-release)...you gotta wonder how easy it will be for them to survive the coming "Alt-A train" steaming towards them....
Ciao
MS
SRS getting smacked today, almost time to buy some more.
09's gonna suck
No kidding. So what's going to set this thing off again?
I had a pretty solid 2008. Portfolio was up 386%. That after being down ~50% in december... Fortunately I get to the tax offset for the December losses and I can rebuy puts for cheap.
Here's to a 2009 that is as lucrative!
No kidding. So what's going to set this thing off again?
Now is a Great time to..... | 12.31.08 - 3:31 pm | #
They'll just bounce it up and down until your investment == 0.
I had a pretty solid 2008. Portfolio was up 386%.
Gavshire Hathaway | 12.31.08 - 3:33 pm | #
Heh..... I managed only +29% this year.
I had a pretty solid 2008. Portfolio was up 386%
How many nickels did you have on the line?
.
Few have the risk tolerance I do. Or maybe I'm just stupid:)
"No kidding. So what's going to set this thing off again?"
My guess is the stack of paperwork that sits at each and every firm that manages people's money marked "redemption request".
and a very long list of fundamental issues that they continue to deny....too many to list here.
Ciao
MS
Treasury Drafts Broad Rules on More Auto Industry Aid (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg headline: Treasury May Provide Funds For Any Co Deemed Crucial to Auto Industry (includes Sonic drive-ins and Whataburgers but not McDonalds since stock dropped less than 15% in 2008)
Treasury Drafts Broad Rules on More Auto Industry Aid
Happy Barack Obama Day, everybody!!
Alabama County Creates Obama Holiday : NPR
If we can have a holiday to honor George Washington, why not one for Barack Obama?
No kidding. So what's going to set this thing off again?
Now is a Great time to..... | 12.31.08 - 3:31 pm | #
They'll just bounce it up and down until your investment == 0.
Eric
What do you base that on? IYR increses 50%?
Bubblevision stooges drawing conclusions about next year and bottom calling based on market action over the past coupla days... BOTTOM'S IN LMAO!
If the tape were a different color (RED) the chumps would say it's just thin trading and wait till next week. Bunch of stiffs...
Broward Horne writes:
I had a pretty solid 2008. Portfolio was up 386%
How many nickels did you have on the line?
Not as much as I'd have liked:) Just about 2 years worth of year end bonuses. Nice, but not obscene.
ice work, Gavshire.
I had been up 48% until about a month ago. Then the great SRS crash took most of that. I plan to regain that in the next three months but you know how those plans go.
Bloom TV keeps saying worst market since GD. Must be a bottom soon. That whole GD thing only lasted a couple of quarters, right?
Nostrovia
I'm not going to post a % of how the year was for me however when I came into '08 I had high 5 figures (trading money) I now have mid-6 figures.
All thanks to the douchebags that pass for "smart money".
My most profitable trades were (LEH, WB, NFLX, SBUX) in that order. All short options.
I'm positive that '09 will be even better.
Here's hoping that it is for you as well..
Ciao
MS
Future Bailouts
Caterpillar
Large mining and timber firms
REIT's
Boeing
States, cities, counties, an assorted
municipalities
NPR
Pension funds
IHOP
Darn... they saved Citi again.
Like thieves in the night... on New Year's Eve.
When the dollar crashes, you'll have 0 figures. We can talk while we're waiting in line for bread.
Morroco
I also taught myself how to make bread this year. I'm trying to cover all the bases.
I wouldn't have gotten those returns without this Board. Thanks for all your comments & recommendations.
My wins for the year via puts:
*LEH
*FNM
*FRE
*WM
*GGP
*GS
*HIG
Next year looking to profit from the continued slide in financials, insurers, and the CRE and credit card collapse. Favorites right now are SPG, COF, GS. Does anyone else have any CRE favorites? What about VNO? It looks pretty juicy -- though not quite as nice as SPG.
Rooty Tooty, Fresh & Fruity...I's Gots Me Sum Serus Booty.
MS, what are your fav's for '09?
Ah I forgot about WB, that one was good to me as well:)
and a very long list of fundamental issues that they continue to deny....too many to list here.
Ciao
MS
Thanks. As for the denial..Why oh why do 'professionals' engage in this? Human nature or do they really think it's bottom time and things are going to turn?
"When the dollar crashes, you'll have 0 figures."
You (wrongly) assume I have kept the profit in an account that is denominated in dollars......much less in fiat currency....
Ciao
MS
Holy CRAP!!!
"When the dollar crashes, you'll have 0 figures."
Shotgun shell wading, toilet paper, and insulation...HA! Stuff will have it's uses. Just make sure it ain't the digital stuff. And take small denomiations. Can be used as kindling to fire up the squirrelly stove.
Nostrovia,
I also taught myself how to make bread this year. I'm trying to cover all the bases.
My favorite's Russian Rye.
Bread at Russian Foods .com
Oh yea...I totally forgot about HIG....that is in between in LEH and WB...
Thanks for jogging my memory GH....
Ciao
MS
Ok all you big winners , get out there an enjoy the winnings why its in your pocket.
my big trip is thruhikepct'09
FFDIC writes:
- NY Times hp
In 2008, 6 Years of Market Gains Are Lost
(It's fitting NYC will be butt fuck'n cold tonite.)
FFDIC | 12.31.08 - 2:46 pm | #
FFDIC it is a nice blog,can you please watch your filth.
Might I suggest
(It's fitting NYC will be Paulson Fuck'n cold tonite.)
From what I understand, Ukraine has conveyed its overdue payments via a Swiss intermediary, but Gazprom is also demanding the fines for late payment it has imposed.
Pavel Chichikov | 12.31.08 - 3:28 pm | #
Damn, did they hire their CFO from a US credit card company?
I've been gradually transferring winnings into more "tangible" assets, rather than our fiat currency. But I have to balance that with expected returns from my shorting/deflation bets. I still think I have some time and money to be made on the downside before the inflation/currency collapse scenario unfolds.
"Why oh why do 'professionals' engage in this? Human nature or do they really think it's bottom time and things are going to turn?"
Survival...nothing more or less.
They don't really believe it IMO....but they have to appear that they do.
A key statistic is going to be tested very soon. If 5% of deposits are requested for withdrawal (i.e. cash) the entire system will be forced to shut down......why? because the system doesn't have it. The Fed's numero uno priority is going to be trying to keep this from happening. They can scream all they want about bailouts or acronym creating programs to soften the blow however it means nothing if you don't have the masses buying up crap to keep the facade going.
Ciao
MS
.
Wow, what an honor. I just received a job solicitation from the Federal Reserve. They really are serious about cracking down on Bank Fraud, aren't they?
Be a Part of the Central Bank of the United States of America!
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta currently has several openings for Bank Examiners in our Supervision & Regulation division. Ideal candidates will have prior bank/financial regulation experience and/or loan review and/or bank operations experience. A bachelors degree is required with a strong preference for concentrations in finance, banking or analysis.
As the central bank of the U.S. the Federal Reserve Systems main functions include setting monetary policy; bank supervision and regulation; and the operation of a nationwide payment system. The Atlanta Fed's Supervision & Regulation division seeks to promote the safety and soundness of the banking system in the Southeast U.S., foster the stability in financial markets, ensure compliance with applicable laws and regulations, and encourage banking institutions to responsibly meet the financial needs of their communities.
Bank Examiners supervise financial institutions by proactively identifying risks through on-and off-site monitoring activities to ensure that the institutions are operating in a safe and sound manner and in compliance with applicable laws and regulations.
The Atlanta Fed has fantastic benefits including world class medical and dental coverage, free public transportation, 401K and pension retirement benefits etc.
.
Thanks, all, for the comments and quips throughout '08.
Can't think of a better bunch to blog the greater Depression with.
Speaking of bailouts, just for kicks, here is a re-print of part of a post I made in May,'08:
"... We shall bail, bail, bail, and we shall sing while we bail. We shall sing a mighty bailing song, and the bailing shall not stop, yea, even though we bail for an hundred years. ..."
threetorches | 05.15.08 - 4:27 pm | #
Nominations are now open for the Mighty Bailing Song, version 2009.
MS, did you have any money with Madoff?
Boy did GS get goosed up. Couldn't resist going against that bump.
Wish me luck!
MS,
"If 5% of deposits are requested for withdrawal (i.e. cash) the entire system will be forced to shut down"
Thus, and therefore, deflation.
Nostrovia,
I just took a dive off the deep end on January SRS calls... Wish me luck.
Crude oil made a 23% move intraday. <a href="http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CL.G09.E&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=2>Today's crude chart looks like a compressed version of the last 7 years, save the crash.
I just took a dive off the deep end on January SRS calls... Wish me luck.
Gavshire Hathaway
GH, I've been slowly accumulating shares in the low/mid 50's. What are you in at?
Gavshire Hathaway - not so sure about continued slide in financials. Sideways if anything.
What do you base that on? IYR increses 50%?
Igor | 12.31.08 - 3:36 pm | #
It's a double-short ETF. You can be right on direction, and even timing, and still lose big to volatility.
"Damn, did they hire their CFO from a US credit card company?"
I think the Russians could teach most US companies how to screw the last cent out of a business deal.
Barley -- history says otherwise. Look at Japan. I'm not making huge bets on financials anymore, but I expect them to continue to decline. Not even TARP funds are enough to repair those balance sheets. Earnings are shot.
Just entered SRS Jan $55 calls within last couple minutes.
It is long overdue for a spike, even if temporary.
My SRS basis is now in the mid $60s. It's not a pretty number or color on my screen. And time isn't exactly on your side with the ultras.
I need someone to reconnect the cable that attaches the markets to the real economy...
bearly,
"I need someone to reconnect the cable that attaches the markets to the real economy...'
That'll get you sent to Gitmo, mate!
Nostrovia,
MB-
Are you kidding?...I am a minnow compared to that level.
Madoff turned people away with $20m
Ciao
MS
And 2008 trading is over. Best of luck in 2009 everyone!
Massive zune recall? All they have to do is put brown garbage cans by the exits on the Redmond campus and problem solved.
The other 30 people will just have to lump it.
My citi puts paid out handsomely, doesn't seem my jan calls on chase are gonna make me much money.
Bond portfolio up 17% due to currency plays
Best of luck in 2009 everyone!
Gavshire Hathaway | 12.31.08 - 4:08 pm | #
Mega-dittos, GH!
Be safe, everyone going out tonight!
MS,
You still haven't listed your favorite candidates for '09. Or do you prefer to keep it a secret? If so, I understand.
with the exception of WFC most financials finished pretty close to the HOD...even C with it's $20b puke-fest. Gotta believe that a certain non-savvy Saudi is shitting his pants about now....
Ciao
MS
"You still haven't listed your favorite candidates for '09. "
Anything that has not already been hammered that is completely dependent on discretionary consumer spending.
My two favs. for this are DIS and AAPL. AAPL has lost alot of value however if you look at how it got there it's easy to see that it has quite a bit more IMO. Wouldn't surprise me if AAPL was a $50 stock by mid-year, if not sooner.
My positions in those are all long dated puts.
On the long side? I'll just defer to Rich as I totally agree with his rationale that commodities are the place to be in '09. There has to be another bubble created...otherwise the system ceases to exist. Can't have that now...can we?
Ciao
MS
Thanks MS! Interesting on DIS -- entertainment was one of the sectors that held up well during GD1. I'll have to do some research on that one. Completely agree on AAPL.
DIS has $14b of debt to roll over into a market that is not buying any debt no mater what it is. They also have a pretty hefty shelf-registration just waiting to be "activated". Add in bookings are way down and people just are not going to have the money to spend (they didn't in the past however the home ATM allowed them to)....that's gone.
At some point CALPERS is going to start unloading it's shares too.
Would'nt want to hold it with those three events likely to occur very soon.
Ciao
MS
Disney has been on a tremendous run over the last couple of years, TV side is facing ad revenue drought, parks is economy dependant, film isblooking SAG strike. DIS may be worth a look as a short.
DIS has $14b of debt to roll over into a market that is not buying any debt no mater what it is.
Ben Bernutke will buy it.
Madoff turned people away with $20m
A masterful approach, wouldn't you say? The allure of exclusivity made those he did accept salivate to "get in."
And now to finish cooking the very larger home-made pot of ciopinno (SP?) for a nice dinner this evening. You couldn't pay me to go out after 9pm tonight.....but those who do please enjoy and stay safe.
Unless you are an I-bank analyst...in that case you can...well you know.
Safe and Prosperous New Year to all.
Ciao
MS
MS - what was the catch of the day for your stew?
Article in the paper today. Local hedgie/horse farmer lost $7.5 billion with madoff. They are stopping the renovations on the horse farm, which has 50 employees. Or had.
I'm trying to wrap my head around having $7.5 billion disappear from your personal balance sheet overnight.
I'm guessing there is some second guessing going on.
Guy spent too much time raising horses and not enough figuring out where the money was.
Once I make my first billion, I'm going to be sure to stick $100 million of it somewhere safe. don't want to pull one of those rookie moves that it appears a bunch of billionaires made.
we have scallops, shrimp, clams, mussels, swordfish, crab.
The crab is frozen (boo!) but not canned.
We do this every year as opposed to going out and paying high prices for shitty service and poor quality. Restaurants in SD are highly over-rated IMO.
Recipe is a amalgamation of one from Scoma's in SF and whatever sounds good at the time.
Ciao
MS
"My most profitable trades were (LEH, WB, NFLX, SBUX) in that order. All short options.
I'm positive that '09 will be even better."
That attitude is exactly how I have always managed to turn reasonably accurate insights on the future into valuable commissions for my broker on the way up and on the way back down.
Fourth quarter I finally started cashing out gains above a certain level and putting them in my checking account instead of letting it ride. That strategy has been much more successful, resulting in a somewhat unexpected tax liability.
I'm trying to wrap my head around having $7.5 billion disappear from your personal balance sheet overnight.
Because most criminals are stupid. All these people that did business with Madoff knew he was doing something illegal. As long as they made money they didn't care, they aided and abetted
MS,
Enjoy your dinner and happy new year..
Love ciopinno...cooking a couple lobster tails with scampied scallops for apptzr with some good wine..
To all happy new year, be safe and good luck in 2009....should be interesting..
Well, if we're having an end of year discussion...
My casino money is up over 160%. Favorites include Dec 100 strike SPY puts, which if I'd had more balls and held on to my gains would've been closer to 700%.
Also did well in WCI, GE, and my very best friend WM.
Also a shout out to Rich: SLW was a great play. Took it from $2.60 to $4.40 and am hoping to get another nice entry point.
Good luck in 2009, folks.
MB-
The really piss-poor thing about Madoff is that he BK'ed some charities. If he doesn't get a special place in hell for that alone then there is no justice.
I was investigated by the SEC (or rather a certain family member of mine) in the late 80's for having some securities in an account that they shouldn't have been in and they actually came to my door, threatened me with jail time etc. That this D-bag actively scammed people out of billions of $'s and has the ability to walk the streets is just too much. The SEC will track you down for small time issues and jail you but let the biggest (so far) scam's boss basically walk is what is wrong with society today.
I'd be watching my back if I was him....someone will try something or he'll have some mysterious death ala Ken Lay.
Ciao
MS
I agree that DIS has had a nice run. However, Disneyland has been packed. I don't know if it is annual passholders not going elsewhere for vacation but over the last 3 months or so, I don't remember the crowds this bad in a LONG time.
As far as attendance and annual passholders go, the pass is 134.00 per year with blackout dates. I can't imagine they make much money on the low end pass.
I don't care about the last 2 days gains and the fact that I lost thousands in the last two days. I'm buying more into my losses. This sucker is going down. The road is a deadend, the can has been kicked down that road as far as it can. I might be a month or two ahead of the curve but if I am, I'll buy more into my losses. '09 will make '08 look good
Thanks, but I wanted you to hold at least some SLW. It's going a lot higher as a leveraged pure silver play in '09.
Hi ho, silver!
"As far as attendance and annual passholders go, the pass is 134.00 per year with blackout dates. I can't imagine they make much money on the low end pass."
I have one...you can't go on weekends or any holiday's unless you fork over about $30 or so.
They sell those to people who are planning to go for two days as the tickets for two day's to both parks are priced about $6 cheaper so many people just opt for the annual pass...I did. I may not use it at all but have the option to if I want to.
DIS is always busy from Oct-Dec they have many holiday themed rides...my fav. being the Haunted House done up as the Burton film "nightmare".
Ciao
MS
absolutely classic.
Thanks, but I wanted you to hold at least some SLW.
And I kick myself for not doing so all the darn time.
One of my tasks over tomorrow's day off is to figure out the cheapest way to play a commodity surge/dollar collapse. SLW is nice, maybe some of the more solvent gold juniors... will be looking at steel and aluminum as well.
I didn't expect to be back here today, but holiday travel being what it is, I am briefly.
All this discussion of strategies and winners and losers motivates me to make one modest suggestion to celebrate the year end.
For making commodity bets, one might look into the Continuous Commodity Index future. It's expensive (10000 margin), but cash settled at 500x index.
Because of its composition, it tends to be very smooth in the presence of fundamental changes in information, mood, hedge fund holdings, what have you. The unsystematic volatility that plagues a lot of thinner contracts on a day to day basis is averaged out in the indexing.
If one had just taken the F9 (Jan) short when its 15d MA turned lower in July, and covered when that 15d MA turned up last week, it would have returned about 125,000 USD.
Since it is a futures contract, as typical, account P&L is credited or debited every night as good funds, and in the former case, can if desired be withdrawn even as the position remains in place.
I'm mentioning it, of course, not as a speculative vehicle as much as an indicator of economic conditions that has had, for years, a very good track record.
Now back to schedulus interruptus. My luck with baggage handling is lousy on New Year's Eve: one year, arrived HNL with luggage sent to who knows where; two years ago, into Chicago MDW with the women's dresses likewise dispatched elsewhere. Very costly events, both. This year it's I who might not arrive. Much less costly, that, if not as much fun.
Happy new year.
Disney is a Nazi affiliated outfit.
MS,
I think many locals get the pass and go on a Mon or Fri, we do. If you work an alternative work schedule, you can go during the week. Or take a day off here and there.
Every passholder knows not to go on a weekend or holiday.
... will be looking at steel and aluminum as well.
Taken for Granite
Take a good hard look at it. Sleep with one eye open.
I wish every one of you a healthy and prosperous 2009.
See you next year!
Austin,
Dont take any clothers and buy when you land at discounted prices to help support our slow consumption..
HNL- all you need is shorts, shirt, sandals, spf 50 and sun glasses....
Thats what abc stores are for...
hny to all
Happy New Year & Good luck to all in '09. With the reckless Bernanke operating the controls America is surely going to need it.
Dollah is kaput in '09!
This charity was spared from Madoff's scam. Quite interesting. Read on.
One Madoff charity goes unscathed - Dec. 17, 2008
"Dont take any clothers and buy when you land...all you need is shorts, shirt, sandals..."
Reminds me of a time when a friend of mine had a teenage daughter living at home. His wife told him of a social engagement, and he asked, sarcastically, "and is it black tie?"
The daughter heard it and chimed in, "black Thai? Wow, that's really expensive."
Generational thing, don't you know.
rich,
been watching SLW ever since i saw you mention it at 4 and change.
excellent call amigo.
the best of the PM bunch methinks.
have been playing silver bullion, but SLW is so much bang for the buck!
will be dippin in next dip.
also found this one on my PM stock search: MDW
it's a crazy penny pure speculative play, but look at its 52 week high.
if gold breaks its resistance at 890, this might be good for a double methinks.
disclaimer: i'm in neither of these stocks...yet...waitin patiently for a dip that may or may not come....
Disney is a Nazi affiliated outfit.
Via the intelligence services which ex-nazis populated post WWII.
The kids love it, though, so what can you do?
The Treasury is going to auction $8 billion in 10-Year TIPS on Tuesday. That should be interesting.
A worthwhile read for the No-Nothing wingnuts . . . you know who you are:
Daily Kos: The Great Depression, Pt. I
Next year looking to profit from the continued slide in financials, insurers, and the CRE and credit card collapse. Favorites right now are SPG, COF, GS.
I agree, but Citi's bailout from a few weeks ago spooked me. Treasury made a huge statement with that one. I made sick money shorting financials this year, but got burned on that one. Will continue to watch, but....
I agree completely on AAPL, SPG shorting and long commodities, and will check up on DIS. Thanks.
One of my favorite plays this year were airline shorts. I'm just entered my third cycle on CAL. It gets pumped up on oil depreciation, then gives back on fundamentals and oil surges.
Gary, is the author of that article Bond Girl's father?
. An association of German immigrants to America, the Bund had a definite pro-Nazi slant. Disney animator Art Babbitt claimed his boss had a strong interest in, if not outright sympathy for, the Bund:
In the immediate years before we entered the War there was a small, but fiercely loyal, I suppose legal, following of the Nazi party . . . There were open meetings, anybody could attend and I wanted to see what was going on myself. On more than one occasion I observed Walt Disney and [Disney's lawyer] Gunther Lessing there, along with a lot of prominent Nazi-afflicted Hollywood personalities. Disney was going to meetings all the time.
The German filmmaker Leni Riefenstahl, whose documentaries in the mid-30s had helped to glorify the Nazis, claimed that "after Kristallnacht [1938], she approached every studio in Hollywood looking for work. No studio head would even screen her movies except Walt Disney. He told her he admired her work but if it became known that he was considering hiring her, it would damage his reputation."
Gary, I think I would have taken "Do Nothing" over handing out taxpayer money to millionaires and billionaires which is exactly what a Democratically controlled Congress did with TARP I.
And I'm no wingnut. Far from it.
While we're at it, here's another good article:
Daily Kos: A Blow to US Exceptionalism
That was an exceptional article, Anonymous. Thanks.
"The really piss-poor thing about Madoff is that he BK'ed some charities. If he doesn't get a special place in hell for that alone then there is no justice."
Collectively those charities generated approx. 73M/year in donations.
Sad. But heh, he gets to stay in his million dollar apartment even after saying he told everybody was guilty...justice is not blind!
Thanks Gary - enjoyed the read
Happy New Year everyone and best of luck to your portfolio in 2009! Will be at CES next week.
Dave
Hmmm lobsters, shrimp, scallops...I'm having a salami sandwich and heading off to work...Now I'll be thinking about all that seafood all night while I feed the rednecks near lethal doses of alcohol...I do have some nice Scamp I think I'll cook this weekend though with some juicy fat rib eyes that were on sale...
I hope you all have a Happy and Safe New Years! I'm positive you all have enough money for cab fare if necessary so use it if you have too many cocktails.
Do we have any 2009 predictions here? Something we can refer back to at the end of 2009? Prizes?
Also, best CR quotes? My vote might be: "Hu's your daddy now."
Who said that?
CK - you have a great weekend. Hope you get MUCHO MANY tips tonight! Lobstas can wait.
CK - To get big tips try this:
When you return to the table/people, put the change on a tray and present them the tray. Folks dont feel right taking it all....Worked at a bar for four months and was shown this tiddy...made off like a bandit.!!
Thanks Outsider, maybe I'll be able to score some of that lobsta if they tip well enough
Gary, is the author of that article Bond Girl's father?
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 5:13 pm | #
LOL. Also at your exceptional pun a few later.
Happy New Year to all! May your 2009 be better than your 2008. Note the parameters.
"One of my favorite plays this year were airline shorts. I'm just entered my third cycle on CAL. It gets pumped up on oil depreciation, then gives back on fundamentals and oil surges."
I've got the other side of that one.
"The really piss-poor thing about Madoff is that he BK'ed some charities. If he doesn't get a special place in hell for that alone then there is no justice."
actually, it will be interesting to see which charities are wiped out ... charities can have "management issues" too...
and if they invested with Madoff they were clearly not worth donating to.
I cannot help feeling anyone who invested with Madoff deserves what they get.
Also, best CR quotes? My vote might be: "Hu's your daddy now."
Dollar is Strengthening to 'Two-Ply'.
I cannot help feeling anyone who invested with Madoff deserves what they get.
Anonymous
Certianly the hedgies that flipped clients money and took a %.
This cartoon is from 1992 ...
Time machine! The nation had just discarded a Bush and elected a president who "could speak English" and was the toast of the corporate world. He was a "new" Democrat, with "new" ideas.
Oh, yes: like deregulation, gutting the social safety net, outsourcing US jobs to smashed labor markets, and goosing the stock market through benefits reductions and downsizing. He talked tough to "dictators" who'd stopped doing Washington's errands and would stand any number of starved children to prove his point.
Change is so invigorating.
[disclaimer: i'm in neither of these stocks...yet...waitin patiently for a dip that may or may not come....
comrade tinman]
Next deleveraging act on hedgie liquidations (the few remaining w/o gates) should give you that chance. At least 1 more time.
When the dollar crashes, you'll have 0 figures. We can talk while we're waiting in line for bread.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 3:42 pm | #
That's what OTM GDX and UDN calls are for...
"I cannot help feeling anyone who invested with Madoff deserves what they get."
Yeah! Almost everybody forgets that the skeleton crew of Israelis was after all..born and bred GERMANS! And look 60 years later...even Hitler would be proud of these Gaza bombers!
BTW my last "tip" for 2009 is to buy:
A freezer
Stock up on those rib eye's as it's likely you won't ever see prices like that for a very long time.
Remember the flip side of the grain price bubble was that farmer's sent a large % of there herd to slaughter because they couldn't afford to feed them. The end game of that is coming to supermarket near you soon.
Ciao
MS
I remember a 1992 cartoon when I lived in Fresno. A had opened his mailbox, holding a letter that said "CA State Warrant" - And he said to his wife "It's not an IOU, more of an I-owe-Me" Bet we'll see that one again soon, too.
Not even TARP funds are enough to repair those balance sheets. Earnings are shot.
Gavshire Hathaway | 12.31.08 - 4:04 pm | #
But at least the required dilution will reduce the per-share losses.
"Next deleveraging act on hedgie liquidations (the few remaining w/o gates) should give you that chance. At least 1 more time."
yes, bearly, that's what methinks as well.
tho who knows.
tho i have to say that it's starting to get predictable in its unpredictability.
2 rules i've learned recently:
1) don't fight the fed.
2) let the facts do the fightin for ya.
One thing is certain: I will be killing a lot of you Anglos. And I kind of look forward it.
You big mouths kind of suck and even this language sucks. I'd rather speak mighty german or even swedish but this pig shit I am stuck until I'll kill you anglocraps...
Another good reason to reduce our usage of fossil fuels.
Change will only come when the price of not changing is overwhelming.
Images of oil addiction in Canada’s tar sands | Grist
kristina, wish u a prosperous new year.
high tips or low tips -- remember there is something beyond money even if the others don't see it.
cheers
A worthwhile read for the No-Nothing wingnuts . . . you know who you are:
In that first part I don't see much in the way of arguments, just economic and financial observations combined with some name-calling.
Suggesting Republicans and the "right-wing" philosophy of doing nothing to help people seems irrelevant to the current situation given that Republicans seem to have recently passed this huge welfare program with the medicare D thing.
Plus it seems to make the accusation that "doing nothing to help people" is some evil "malignant" philosophy without really making a case that it was done with malicious intentions (maybe at the time it was).
The more sensible "do nothing" arguments I've seen these days center around the belief that when the government does things to help the economy it typically makes things worse.
If somebody really believes this, are they really "evil" by arguing what they believe to be in the long-term best interest of the economy and the people that live in it?
Seems like it would be much better to attack the reasons for that belief rather than making blanket statements that it's uncaring.
The piece comes across, so far, as an opinion with some tangential facts thrown in to create the appearance of legitimacy.
Change is so invigorating.
I'm still waiting to see some.
So far everything I'm hearing about - easier credit and more deficit spending - is nothing more than an uninterrupted continuation of the policies of the past 25 years.
ac-
totally agree....we will spend ourselves to a recovery...
Because that worked so well up to this point.
Ciao
MS
"Republicans seem to have recently passed this huge welfare program with the medicare D thing."
If by welfare, you mean welfare for Big Pharma, then you're right. That is pure corporate pork.
And the point of the piece, which is the first in a series, is to counteract the coordinated and ongoing right-wing disinformation campaign on FDR.
The important takeaway in my view is the GOP ethos of "Fuck you, hooray for me". This works very well for the top 1-2%, but it continues to elude me why another 40-50% of the voting population is routinely taken in by it.
Thanks for that article, CJ.
I agree with ac, as well. The only change we're getting is a diaper change. It's still the same ass we've created, and that ass will continue to soil its fitted, or ill-fitted, diapers.
but it continues to elude me why another 40-50% of the voting population is routinely taken in by it.
Gary | 12.31.08 - 6:17 pm | #
Good point. I think up until this point life has been OK for most. Easy credit, flat screens in every room etc. I believe that it is finally dawning on many GOPers that their party (and our gov as a whole) is a sham.
Former GOP here. Got out years ago.
Happy new year to the commentariat, proleteriat, on-the-potomac politburo, and anyone else I may have missed. You, too, CR.
Let's face it, both parties are a scam. Ultimately, they both serve the same Master...adn that Master isn't "us."
Is the FDIC a corporation? Can it go bankrupt?
No, becasue the FDIC has the power to devalue away it's debt
Since so many people here are announcing their winnings for the year, I'll demonstrate just how good a sport I am. Down -12%.
If I had more of the pirate gene I'd advertise as a mutual fund manager. "Sebastian only lost -12% in the Great Crash of '08. How did your mutual fund do?
))
Happy New Year to everyone and if you're going to do something stupid tonight make sure it's not the kind of thing that will wind up with you being dead or in jail.
Myself, it's champagne and caviar (sort of a James Bond theme only without the formal wear) to the accompaniment of my iTunes collection of oldies, and I don't have to leave the house for anything.
See you all in the New Year!
Sebastia
It's backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. (what a joke), so the only way it goes BK is if the U.S. goes BK.
The master is "us". Our labor and spending gives "them" their power.
The most disturbing aspect of this entire crisis is how this dynamic is being upset. Change is happening but it is ALL unintended consequences with a high risk of systemic failure.
Yesterday not being representative of tomorrow is the only certainty.
Bond does Martinis.
Bond does Martinis.
Morocco Bama
Seb's a contrarian.
Happy New Year, Sebastian.
The master is "us". Our labor and spending gives "them" their power.
It should be "us." But, sadly, it's not. It's the Plutocrats who control and exploit that labor and spending. So long as there are Bread & Circuses, the "us" will gladly overlook such trivialities.
Just popped on for a minute and then back to life.
Friend has put on a major spread for years and this is the night to make like a pig.
Announcing financial results for the year? Honestly, I'm nowhere near Gavshire's league but am up about 15% over the year.
Would be higher, but TBT was my "Thornburg Experience" (no offense, Rich).
Live and learn.
Happy New Years to everyone and be safe. It'll get crazy out there...
I always think of New Year's as a threshold moment, as irrational as that is. A date? How does that affect anything?
So here's some Take Me To The Other Side Music...
YouTube - Spacemen 3 -Live -Take Me To The Other Side -13.04.1989.
C
Sebastian,
-12% and still buying caviar? I bet you received a great deal. Carp caviar? Or even worse the fake stuff:
Fake Caviar — Luxist
My winnings: bought INTC at 12.28. It got up to about 13.70, so I put a stop loss on it to preserve at least $1.00/share profit. Got stopped out, kept the profit, but it is now above $13.70. Hindsight is 20/20. For a long term holder it is probably a good deal at any recent price.
Sebastian: Since so many people here are announcing their winnings for the year, I'll demonstrate just how good a sport I am.
I'm down 49% in my funds and margin account. Still earning 5% yields though, will have to see how long the earnings hold up. I plan to continue averageing down for a few more years, and tough it out.
I was 90% cash in 2005 - but I started buying in heavily this summer, and the market just kept on tanking.
Champagne and Caviar are Robin Leach.
reptillian writes:
My winnings: bought INTC at 12.28. It got up to about 13.70, so I put a stop loss on it to preserve at least $1.00/share profit. Got stopped out, kept the profit, but it is now above $13.70. Hindsight is 20/20. For a long term holder it is probably a good deal at any recent price.
reptillian | 12.31.08 - 6:44 pm | #
On second thought, if it's true that Microsoft is laying off 17%, then there may be better buys on INTC, later, as in "next year."
aClem writes:
I have just begun reading Kennedy's book on the Great Depression, and already can see why it's so well thought of: The guy can write!
That's good to know. I finished Krugman's latest, and the two by Talib (Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness) and I'm craving more. So I'll have to pick that one up.
For what it's worth, down 700-800 payrolls for Jan and Feb are quite possible, maybe even likely. That will be a lot of sticker shock for the stock market.
Turbo | 12.31.08 - 3:19 pm | #
We'll find out a week from Friday. Should be good for a 500 point rally. Cause if it comes in really bad, the Fed will cut rates! Yeah, that's the ticket.
Cause if it comes in really bad, the Fed will cut rates!
Baca | 12.31.08 - 6:51 pm | #
What are they going to say? "Zero, and this time we really mean it"?
[The important takeaway in my view is the GOP ethos of "Fuck you, hooray for me". This works very well for the top 1-2%, but it continues to elude me why another 40-50% of the voting population is routinely taken in by it.
Gary ]
Gary, I'm glad you're so easily impressed by the labor/teacher/govt... union disinformation campaigns.
Sad. But heh, he gets to stay in his million dollar apartment even after saying he told everybody was guilty...justice is not blind!
Barley | 12.31.08 - 5:31 pm | #
No, just deaf.
My winnings: 98% gain nominal and PPP better on currency play.
Wahoo! Love volatility. Stack it up, wait, measure, assess, test, move quickly, two days ahead of actual. Awwrightee.
As long as the partner bank still exists... (Eeeek!).
C
Untitled Document
Get your Daily Layoffs! Even if it is just 7 people!
ova - I'm still seeing planes parked in the desert.
Google "whitetails".
C
What are they going to say? "Zero, and this time we really mean it"?
MLM | Homepage | 12.31.08 - 6:55 pm | #
Never zero. The next cut will be to the range of zero to one sixteenth.
All-in, my total net worth is up 27% Y-O-Y, but I'm down 16% from my peak new worth in August. That's based on a diversified portfolio of municipal bonds, real estate, gold, oil, and equities in addition to salary and capital gains on the sale of a business.
Overall, my absolute worst trades of the year have been SRS and SKF, which cost me a little over 15% of my net worth.
Bring on 2009 already!
bearly, bearly, bearly. Incorrigible.
As long as we are discussing returns, mine was about 3-4% for 2008 - average interest rate on my CDs.
But nary a nickel lost, having gone all cash in mid 2007.
A major victory, given the alternative had I not liquidated my 401k and rolled it into an IRA. Or had I taken the Smith Barney rep's suggestion of a "safe" investment: VSLAX. What a load that fund is.
Well, at least they don't eat azaleas
Airbus and Boeing may end up with as many as 200 new planes without buyers next year because airlines are unable to obtain funds to pay for them amid the global credit squeeze.
Eddy Pieniazek, a director of airline industry consultant Ascend, said yesterday: "There is a funding gap and we do not really know where the money will be coming from."
My trading acct - DOWN 8%. If I factor in Cap gains & dividends, my stocks lost more. Haven't done an official tally.
My 401k - UP 6%. First time in years that my 401k total tops my trading acct (contributed heavily and got full match contribution).
This was a tough year. Option premiums thru the roof, commodities crashed and viscious swings with relentless bear market drops that I got out of too early. I suspect few made money this year.
My top gainer - GGP. If it weren't for that bright spot I would be in far worse shape.
Eddy Pieniazek says "There is a funding gap and we do not really know where the money will be coming from."
Eddy's not paying attention, is he?
.
The next cut will be to the range of zero to one sixteenth.
Plantagenet | 12.31.08 - 7:01 pm | #
It's a new form of Zeno's paradox. By Glod, they can keep cutting forever! Problem solved, mission accomplished.
+350% but I just started in May
My positions for 2009 will be missionary and reverse cowgirl.
The important takeaway in my view is the GOP ethos of "Fuck you, hooray for me". This works very well for the top 1-2%, but it continues to elude me why another 40-50% of the voting population is routinely taken in by it.
I think there's a problem with that kind of mentality in this country, but I don't think it's something specific to the Republicans. Political parties and ideologies tend to be very transient and superficial devices. Kind of like two arbitrary teams made up to get people interested in the political process.
IMO it marginalizes a very serious cultural problem we have to slap a political label on it.
O/T, but..
Below is a link to a GREAT blog written by a woman who works at a PE firm. For whatever reason, she hasn't been posting much, lately, but this is her latest (posted 12-24-08).
Going Private
+350% but I just started in May
Wow.
No wonder you don't trust currencies.
Is that in rubles or zimbabwe bucks?
.
"My positions for 2009 will be missionary and reverse cowgirl."
I can't find those on the Proshares web site.
Oh... got it.
Happy New Year to all. May your 2009 be full of insight and profits.
J.
whats "reverse cowgirl?"
whats "reverse cowgirl?"
If you have to ask, you don't need to know.
.
Whoo hooo!
AC -
Up until 2002 I considered myself an independent and tended to vote GOP due to a civil liberties bent.
At this point we have a two party system and one has to take sides to be even remotely effective. Pick a party and attempt to make it better. i'd prefer a european style parliamentary system that allowed multiple parties to flourish but we have what we have for now.
bearly and papasloth - you can't count your new contributions and non-investment earnings when calculating your returns, who is your accountant, Friehling and Horowitz CPA?
bearly and papasloth - you can't count your new contributions and non-investment earnings when calculating your returns, who is your accountant, Friehling and Horowitz CPA?
Gary | 12.31.08 - 7:20 pm | #
My total net worth is the only number that matters to me personally, my investment returns are not a particularly interesting measure to me, in and of themselves. The IRS tends to split things up in all sorts of weird ways, which are beyond my comprehension.
If you're a civil liberties bent Republican, I must be a staunch conservative Democrat. Reality check- The ACLU is a radical left wing apparatchik of the Democrat party.
PapaSloth writes:
bearly and papasloth - you can't count your new contributions and non-investment earnings when calculating your returns, who is your accountant, Friehling and Horowitz CPA?
Gary | 12.31.08 - 7:20 pm | #
My total net worth is the only number that matters to me personally, my investment returns are not a particularly interesting measure to me, in and of themselves. The IRS tends to split things up in all sorts of weird ways, which are beyond my comprehension.
PapaSloth | 12.31.08 - 7:24 pm | #
So sad, yet another money worshiper.
So sad, yet another money worshiper.
DkDkDK | 12.31.08 - 7:26 pm | #
More like a food, beverage and shelter worshipper. If people were a little more concerned with feeding and sheltering themselves, and a little less concerned with what the government can give them, the world would be a better place.
[bearly and papasloth - you can't count your new contributions and non-investment earnings when calculating your returns]
Not counting contributions in returns. Simply saying the balance exceeds my trading acct in 401k. 401k is in a Treasury & Fixed return fund since July07.
Look on the bright side, if the national debt is divided among all Americans, illegal aliens, and foreign nationals, we only owe about $37,000 each- the price of a decent SUV.
BTW, let me clarify that what I think is a "very serious cultural problem" is not people being wealthy or having a lot of money.
The problem is economic predation and parasitism - getting wealthy in socially destructive ways.
ac - [getting wealthy in socially destructive ways]
I share your sentiment. But I need to prepare for the bleak future, so, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.
Yeah, well when it's time to choose between a pile of money and food, the food will cost a pile of money.
When I was a young'un, I had plenty of time and not many assets, so I played the market recklessly and gained and lost fortunes.
Now that I'm an older fart with a modestly high net worth, I try not to gamble it all away on a single spin of the roulette wheel. That tends to lower returns overall, which the reasonable trade-off for keeping your assets safe.
They don't talk about "risk tolerance" for nothing, you know. It's not all about total returns (though big returns are nice, of course, and if I were the jealous type, I'd be jealous of Gavshire Hathaway).
My buddy just won a bid on a house in Woodland, CA for 100k. Its value peaked at 387k in 2005. The property taxes are only $250/year, because the property was purchased for only 25k many years ago. That's the problem in California- the property taxes are too low (never thought I'd say it). He'll be saving nicely for retirement with a payment of only $560 per month (combined income of over 90k), and $1000/year in property taxes for the whole time that he owns the house.
The ACLU is a radical left wing apparatchik of the Democrat party.
DkDkDK | 12.31.08 - 7:25 pm | #
Card carrying member since 2001.
bearly, duly noted on your returns.
papasloth, on the other hand - I also earned money and saved it this year, paid off debt and built my bank account up. And that of course is the important goal . . . but it is a totally different measure than what others were describing.
And that of course is the important goal . . . but it is a totally different measure than what others were describing.
Gary | 12.31.08 - 7:40 pm | #
Yeah, funny about that. I have to check forum policy to make sure we're allowed to have different goals
Gary writes:
The ACLU is a radical left wing apparatchik of the Democrat party.
DkDkDK | 12.31.08 - 7:25 pm | #
Card carrying member since 2001.
Then you must support NAMBLA, partial birth abortions, and terrorists' rights. Good for you! Happy New Year!
So sad, yet another money worshiper.
DkDkDK | 12.31.08 - 7:26 pm | #
Then you must support NAMBLA, partial birth abortions, and terrorists' rights. Good for you! Happy New Year!
DkDkDk | 12.31.08 - 7:44 pm | #
My, what an unpleasant person you are. I hope you find something to be happier about in the new year, and that your disposition improves as a result. Wine, women and laughter to you, my friend!
PapaSloth, did ya swing for the fences on any fliers? Even tho I'm a member of the demographic that should be in wealth preservation mode I took a few home run swings this year. The way I see it, the wealth I could preserve won't be enough to enjoy. I need to hit a few outta the park. That's why I have a trading acct.
DkDkDk, I can only assume absed on your comments you are a gay Islamic fanaticist & pederast with a fetish for speculum play.
Happy New Year to all, I'm out!
Earlier comments (I've skipped the last half, after all I still "sorta" have a life) caused me to think about the 2009 retirement plan withdrawal "holiday" that will allow retirees to not take any minimum amount out of their account.
In retrospect, this is just as much (probably more) about keeping the funds liquid than "forcing redemptions by J6P when the market is down" as has been advertised.
AC -
Up until 2002 I considered myself an independent and tended to vote GOP due to a civil liberties bent.
At this point we have a two party system and one has to take sides to be even remotely effective. Pick a party and attempt to make it better. i'd prefer a european style parliamentary system that allowed multiple parties to flourish but we have what we have for now.
bearly and papasloth - you can't count your new contributions and non-investment earnings when calculating your returns, who is your accountant, Friehling and Horowitz CPA?
Gary | 12.31.08 - 7:20 pm |
Maybe the more interesting question is whether these problems we have are going to be addressed by the political process or in some other way.
I don't know the answer to this, but my personal belief is that any meaningful change is going to come more from individual initiative than from the political system or the government.
Look at the civil rights movement, for example. Were the advances in civil rights last century a product of actions by the government/political system, or were these merely official reactions to something in the popular will - individuals and groups that were motivated by the belief that the government wasn't interested in solving their problems.
This is why I worry about political agendas that promote the idea of a compassionate government that solves peoples problems:
If a meaningful solution is only possible through popular will, or changes that only individuals or smaller organizations can make in their beliefs and behavior, promises of bureaucratic solutions may subdue that response when it is needed most, or worse, may be an intentional ruse to maintain the status quo by pacifying people with false promises.
Stock tip -Go long Blue star airlines
The worst year for the stock market since 1931.
BBC NEWS | Business | Record stock market falls in 2008
2009 will be worse. Bop gun! Pay attention...
Anyone know what happened to Elaine Meinel Supkis? She stopped blogging a while ago.
The Bonddad Blog
Morocco Bama
Don't know if he is Bond Girl's dad, but he does good chart porn.
Speaking of fliers, at $86+ on GS I took a run at the Jan 80s. Front month option contracts are gambling, but hey, beats Poker.net.
ac - [getting wealthy in socially destructive ways]
I share your sentiment. But I need to prepare for the bleak future, so, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.
bearly | 12.31.08 - 7:33 pm |
I'm not talking about trading or speculation.
I'm talking about deliberate coercion and deception done for personal gain with the knowledge that you're causing social harm.
Betting that stocks will go down, for example, isn't fundamentally abusive. Joining up with other speculators to intentionally depress a small company's stock for profit is. Likewise for getting on TV everyday when you know damn well there's a speculative bubble and screaming Booyah!
If you're doing any of that stuff, shame shame shame...
Counterpointer writes:
nova - I'm still seeing planes parked in the desert.
Whose? I know service is being cut, but published info so lags...
That is a clear indicator that the economy is slowing. Almost as ugly as the Baltic dry... (almost... but close)
I agree 2009 will be much worse than 2008. Ugh... time to drink. Oh wait... baby in the house...
I think I'll be celebrating new year's with Iceland!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
One problem I see in America is ignorance leads to victimization. We got a hell of a lot of victims.
DK- your last comment to Gary was not only unnecessary, but rude, to say the least, but in my opinion, Gary's parting shot was worse, in that he resorted to a vileness exceeding your own - please quit while you're ahead.
Net worth down 4% for the year. And I'm very happy about it...
Was up 15% in July and I started seeing the palm trees swaying in the breeze in my Costa Rican retirement bungalow. (Retirement euphoria, I now know, is my danger signal). Got creamed on PM miners and forex (somehow I doubt I'm the only one). Started clawing back with Puts on AAPL, RIG and SPY (could have made a lot more if I'd had the nerve to hold longer).
Thanks to everyone in the CR community for all the education and help. Happy New Year to one and all!
Oooh cool. We get to brag about this year's winnings? My wealth was divided evenly, in 1/3 portions between gold, I-Bonds and Put option trading account.
Gold held since '05, so a small gain there. I-Bonds owned since '05 gave a modest, risk-free return (5% or more, and no CA state taxes!)
Put options showed an after-tax gain of over 100%, thanks to all of the banks, investment banks, tech bubble stocks, retailers and of course, the casinos!
Sad to see 2008 behind us!
Now, if only I hadn't bought all of those SRS shares in my IRA account!
Sigh.
Ooops. Anonymous at 8:19 was me.
I hate it when I lose my (IE) Cookies!
I also wanted to mention that I saw that movie "The Day the Earth Stood Still" the other day. The most unrealistic part was, after the aliens landed in Central Park, and the giant robot started blowing up army tanks and planes, they showed world markets tanking 50% or so. Obviously, the destruction of the entire human race at the hands of alien invaders had been priced in and when it actually happened, should have been good for a 2-3% pop in the S&P.
joe after the 12 pack writes:
One problem I see in America is ignorance leads to victimization. We got a hell of a lot of victims.
joe after the 12 pack | 12.31.08 - 8:11 pm | #
I don't know if it's taught in high schools yet, but they really need to make mandatory a financial decision making course. You know, how to figure payments on a car, house, etc. Lots of financial ignorance out there.
Chart Pr0n showing the Dow's worst performances compared:
Chart of the Day - www.chartoftheday.com
Happy New Year, Everyone!
Obviously, the destruction of the entire human race at the hands of alien invaders had been priced in and when it actually happened, should have been good for a 2-3% pop in the S&P.
max flatow | 12.31.08 - 8:25 pm | #
Oh at least 3%. Can't wait for the next earthquake (or a nuke)to really put the market in rally mode. All that rebuilding will create jobs and help the economy grow. Something like that anyway.
TO ABSENT FRIENDS.........Yours in Peace
BACA Agreed, I think the education system has failed in a lot of areas especially in simple finance.
Baca | 12.31.08 - 8:29 pm
One of my most valuable Jr. HS classes was 8th grade "Junior Business Training" which was a requirement.
Taught about all those and more.
Sadly, that was 55 years ago and since it "isn't on the test" it isn't taught any more.
You know, how to figure payments on a car, house, etc
Why? My realtor figures all that out for me.
.
Happy New Year to everyone here, looking forward to lurking and learning in 09.
A friend of mine bought a house, with an exploding ARM of course, but the broker did not include the property tax in the monthly payment. So they were a little surprised to get a notice from the county.
picosec writes:
Baca | 12.31.08 - 8:29 pm
One of my most valuable Jr. HS classes was 8th grade "Junior Business Training" which was a requirement.
I am a graduate of 1969 majored in dumbbell math and English. Still very bad at English but the simple math did very well by me financially. I am amazed at many young people lack of basic skills.
Some of the debt was for good.
HubbleSite - Picture Album: Hubble/GALEX/Spitzer Composite Image of M81
Amazing hubble photo's
there has to be life out there.
Remember, you promised to post New Year's Eve pictures at CR.
I highly recommend you wear your lederhosen tonight.
[Why? My realtor figures all that out for me.
.
Broward Horne ]
LOL! My brother went to his accountant (tax preparer) before he purchased a $670k house in CA. Brother said the accountent told him he could afford it. He went BK about 10 yrs ago on similar advice. I was in shock.
He's an engineer...
ever seen such a rally as one in bad news !!
Sadly, I was forced to part with all my hugely underwater SRS holdings today for tax purposes. NOw, I expect it to rocket up based on a reconnection to reality in January before I can buy back in (31 day window when I cannot buy SRS to ensure tax losses can be recognized on 12/31 sale). Like many others above, I was way up on the year (150%) in mid November (and committed the sin of pride) and now I am about even (and not so proud).
The bigger question for many realistic observers (aka bears) is that the government has completely eliminated fundamentals, at least in the short term. I am confident in what will happen to the economy, but I have NO idea what the government will do- though I expect them to make losers into winners and vice versa.
With regard to REIT stocks, what is the case for optimism that led to the huge, Pilgrim-sobering SRS crash of the last 5 weeks? I just don't get it.
When it's all done they may blame it on high fructose corn syrup, artificial sweeteners, fast food and anti-depressants.
I highly recommend you wear your lederhosen tonight.
Got my new leather pants right here, softer and tighter than those true biker pants.
We have tickets for three different venues tonight. I'm not sure I'll have the energy for the hot tub.
.
Tin Free (and lovin' it!) - Cool Hubble site. Thanks!
Hey Counterpointer. I know. The planes...
I am reading a bio of Jesse Livermore. Someone on here mentioned the "Crash of 1907" and it is turning out to an interesting read.
BH:
There is no way to embarrass you.
Awesome.
Happy New Year!
[With regard to REIT stocks, what is the case for optimism that led to the huge, Pilgrim-sobering SRS crash of the last 5 weeks? I just don't get it.
Pilgrim ]
I shared in the pain, but traded around some of it.
My sense is some marginal improvement in credit markets, VIX declining and short covering combined with the natural decay of ultra funds that decimated SRS. SRS is wonderful for sharp moves and a spiking VIX. Not something you can count on for long periods...
PapaSloth, did ya swing for the fences on any fliers? Even tho I'm a member of the demographic that should be in wealth preservation mode I took a few home run swings this year. The way I see it, the wealth I could preserve won't be enough to enjoy. I need to hit a few outta the park. That's why I have a trading acct.
bearly | 12.31.08 - 7:51 pm | #
I have a smallish (15% of net worth) daytrading account to keep it interesting. Ironically, my biggest gains were on URE and MS short-term longs. I also did pretty well selling deep out-of-the-money calls when the VIX was very high. My gains there were more than offset by losses on SKF and SRS. I have high hopes on my GLD and USO longs.
The big news for me this year was the awful performance of my Oregon state municipal bond funds. Those suckers were supposed to be relatively safe, but they managed to net -30% before starting to recover over December. Safe my ass.
The single biggest win for me was the Bank of America Accolades American Express card, which entitled me to free membership with Priority Pass. All the free airport cheese I can eat! Woohoo!
Nothing says Happy New Year like ABBA
Best Wishes for 2009.
YouTube - The Internationale
Those suckers were supposed to be relatively safe, but they managed to net -30% before starting to recover over December. Safe my ass
"They're safe if you hold them to maturity" - Ben B.
Ugly girls become hot... but you have to hold them to maturity.
Eric writes:
What do you base that on? IYR increses 50%?
Igor | 12.31.08 - 3:36 pm | #
It's a double-short ETF. You can be right on direction, and even timing, and still lose big to volatility.
Eric | 12.31.08 - 4:01 pm | #
I keep hearing this about the double down short Pro Shares. All I know is TWM DD Short on the Russell 2000 was good to me in 08. I held it for 6 months, +80% on that trade alone.
Ugly girls become hot... but you have to hold them to maturity
Beauty is in the thigh of the beholder.
Hawley Smoot writes:
Anyone know what happened to Elaine Meinel Supkis? She stopped blogging a while ago.
Hawley Smoot | 12.31.08 - 8:04 pm | #
She changed blog services. My favorite insightful, believer in mythic representations, lady is still tearing up the economic/world topics.
Culture of Life News
Obviously, the destruction of the entire human race at the hands of alien invaders had been priced in and when it actually happened, should have been good for a 2-3% pop in the S&P.
max flatow | 12.31.08 - 8:25 pm | #
LOL and now for something completely different. I hope this guy is wrong but he makes more sense to me than anyone else.
http://www.professorfekete.com/articles%5CUNHAPPY.pdf
I keep hearing this about the double down short Pro Shares. All I know is TWM DD Short on the Russell 2000 was good to me in 08. I held it for 6 months, +80% on that trade alone.
Topher | 12.31.08 - 9:15 pm | #
No one is denying you can make money on them.
But the fact that Igor has to ask "based on what, IYR increasing 50%?" shows that many investors have no idea how these things actually work.
I've played with SRS and others. I doubt I'll do so again (other than day or two day trading), after running some spreadsheets and montecarlo sims myself. I'll stick with options. At least with options, when you're short vol, it's obvious that you're short vol.
She changed blog services. My favorite insightful, believer in mythic representations, lady is still tearing up the economic/world topics.
Culture of Life News
Citizen Jacked
Thanks Jacked
DkDkDk -- you are so silly. I'm a member of NAMBLA and the ACLU, and I can tell you that neither organization supports partial birth abortion.After all, where would we get our underage little boys to rape and murder if all those irresponsible straight people aborted their delicious little fetuses.At least, please be logical!Happy New Year.
DkDkDk(Unrated) writes:
\tGary writes:
The ACLU is a radical left wing apparatchik of the Democrat party.
DkDkDK | 12.31.08 - 7:25 pm | #
Card carrying member since 2001.
Then you must support NAMBLA, partial birth abortions, and terrorists' rights. Good for you! Happy New Year!
\t DkDkDk | \t \t \t \t12.31.08 - 7:44 pm | #
I keep hearing this about the double down short Pro Shares. All I know is TWM DD Short on the Russell 2000 was good to me in 08. I held it for 6 months, +80% on that trade alone.
Topher | 12.31.08 - 9:15 pm | #
It's not just the double short Pro Shares, it's all the leveraged ETFs (URE, SRS, SKF, UYG, FAS, FAZ, TNA, TZA, ERY, ERX, etc.).
A much-repeated example will illustrate: Let's say the Russell 1000 Energy moves up 3% on day 1, up 3% on day 2 and down 6% on day 3. For each dollar invested, this will return 1.031.03.94=.997 cents. Now consider ERX, which returns 3X the daily movement of the Russell 1000 Energy. For each dollar invested in ERX over the same period, it will return 1.091.09.82=.974. On the other hand, ERY returns 3X the inverse of the daily movement of the Russell 1000 Energy. It will return (1-.09)(1-.09)(1+.18)=.977. So both the ERX and the ERY will have lost more than the underlying index over the same period.
Given that stocks tend not to move in a straight line, it is very very risky to hold these for long periods. There's a real tailwind.
But the fact that Igor has to ask "based on what, IYR increasing 50%?" shows that many investors have no idea how these things actually work.
And your initial response showed you have no idea how these things actually work hot shot. Driving SRS to "zero" as you stated is of couse possible but the rise in IYR would have to be very steep and continual, highly unlikely. Why do you state that I have no "idea how these things actually work"? You know me? Have we discussed this at length and my lack of understanding was apparent? What you get greedy and hold onto it at $295 and ending up losing?
in deflation:
SHORT LEVERAGE, but not leverage that buys ink in bulk.
Given that stocks tend not to move in a straight line, it is very very risky to hold these for long periods. There's a real tailwind.
PapaSloth
Did you mean headwind? What do you consider long periods? I've got SRS at $55 and I'm not worried...yet.
if you love SRS at 50, you'll really love it at 89.
Driving SRS to "zero" as you stated is of couse possible but the rise in IYR would have to be very steep and continual, highly unlikely
A steep and continual decline over time will not drive SRS to zero. It goes asymptotic as it approaches zero over time. A 50% move higher in the Dow Jones Real Estate Index in a single day would cause SRS to go to zero. A move over time would not do this.
Ex: The index is 100. SRS is 100. URE is also 100. Day 1 the index increases to 125 or 25%. SRS loses 50% and drops to 50. URE gains 50% and goes to 150. Day 2 the index returns to 100 by dropping 20%. SRS gains 40% and rises to 70. URE loses 40% and drops to 90.
Same setup index is 100, SRS is 100 and URE is 100. Day 1 the index rises 50% to 150. SRS loses 100% and goes to 0. URE gains 100% and goes to 200. Game over for SRS.
Before you accuse someone of not understanding something Igor you should make sure you understand it yourself.
Did you mean headwind?
Anonymous | 12.31.08 - 9:42 pm | #
Heh, yep. Headwind.
What do you consider long periods? I've got SRS at $55 and I'm not worried...yet.
Anonymous | 12.31.08 - 9:42 pm | #
Perform the following exercise: Go to Yahoo financials and download the historical prices for both URE and SRS. Now create a spreadsheet with the Adj. Close for both stocks, and in the third column, multiply the price of URE by the price of SRS. Now graph the third column, and reverse the X axis so that time is moving in the right direction. See how the product falls and falls steadily, and where there's a real sharp dropoff when the volatility went up as a result of the Sep/Oct/Nov market crash? That's the headwind you have to make up. How long you choose to fight this headwind is up to you...
I know I wished for lower house prices in 2005, and found myself morbidly watching a recession unfolding. And soon, when my global US-based employer steps up its attack on US-based employees, it'll become a depression. I'm in the best position I've ever been in, though, to buy a house!
So far everything I'm hearing about - easier credit and more deficit spending - is nothing more than an uninterrupted continuation of the policies of the past 25 years.
Yes, AC, that is the point I was trying to make. Obama's "change" is a rebranding of an old dog and pony show.
His ersatz change might yet morph into something meaningful, but he's no reformer. Only crisis can shake up this calcified system.
Mike in Long Island writes:
Driving SRS to "zero" as you stated is of couse possible but the rise in IYR would have to be very steep and continual, highly unlikely
A steep and continual decline over time will not drive SRS to zero. It goes asymptotic as it approaches zero over time. A 50% move higher in the Dow Jones Real Estate Index in a single day would cause SRS to go to zero. A move over time would not do this.
Both examples are accurate though mine is more feasible. Of course IYR gains 50% in one day (LOL) SRS would be bust. But, a steep continued climb of IYR could also drive SRS to zero. And I don't need Mike from Long Island to give me advice on how to respond to someone who accuses me of not knowing what I'm talking about. OK Mikey?
That's the headwind you have to make up. How long you choose to fight this headwind is up to you...
PapaSloth
Buying in at $55, I don't have to fight all that. I'm not waiting for a 600% gain. Give me 15-25%, I'm not greedy
A steep continued climb of IYR would drive SRS close to zero but not to zero. SRS could drop 50% per day every day and not get to zero. Okay Iggy?
Look at what happened to UYG as XLK dropped.
OK Mikey
But, a steep continued climb of IYR could also drive SRS to zero.
Igor | 12.31.08 - 9:53 pm | #
The price of SRS times the price of URE was 4108.924 back on 2/2/2007. It was 294.118 on yesterday's close. That's close enough to zero for my purposes, but I've done dumber things with my money.
Buying in at $55, I don't have to fight all that. I'm not waiting for a 600% gain. Give me 15-25%, I'm not greedy
Igor | 12.31.08 - 9:57 pm | #
Yes, good, that's the way to trade these. Get in, get out quick with your profit (or loss). The wrong way is to hold them for longer periods.
Sounds like we agree. Happy New Year!
Neil
Try this, it is indeed the airline equiv of Dryships:
Airbus, Boeing Could End Up With 'White Tail' Jets
Page expired - MSN Money
Planemakers May End Up With 200 `Whitetails' in 2009 (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg aka kaboomberger in my lexicon, was almost first with the story, but the trade papers have been better since. Much like the shipping story, actually.
Endgame: not positive. Bit like ship and container orders. Add trade credit woes.
2009 is going to be waaay fun.
Not.
I weep for my economy.
C
The banjo artistry of Gene Sheldon Enjoy!
Sounds like we agree. Happy New Year!
Mikey in Long Island
We agree. Happy New Year. I don't claim to be a guru or know-it-all but, when SRS is hitting it's 52 week lows today with the near term future of CRE, I'm sensing many are whistlin past the graveyard and am not alone in that belief.
And your initial response showed you have no idea how these things actually work hot shot.
Igor | 12.31.08 - 9:34 pm | #
Wrong. I know exactly how they work.
But go right ahead with your investing plans.
Wrong. I know exactly how they work.
But go right ahead with your investing plans.
Eric
I am.
Wrong. I know exactly how they work.
But go right ahead with your investing plans.
Eric | 12.31.08 - 10:15 pm | #
You tried, now it's time to go out and have a great New Year's Eve. Drink up!
Yes, good, that's the way to trade these. Get in, get out quick with your profit (or loss). The wrong way is to hold them for longer periods.
PapaSloth
I agree these aren't long term holds but what's more important is where you buy in at.
Obama's "change" is a rebranding of an old dog and pony show.
change is built into the system...every four years we get to choose a new guy to run the old policies.
After a 6-pack, a '4' starts lookin' like a '10
dopes,b&b
You tried, now it's time to go out and have a great New Year's Eve. Drink up!
PapaSloth | 12.31.08 - 10:18 pm | #
Heh..... I really do want him to go ahead with the investment plans. There's no poker game without a fish or two.
I agree these aren't long term holds but what's more important is where you buy in at.
Iggy | 12.31.08 - 10:19 pm | #
What's important is where the IYR is and where the market is going... The actual dollar value of URE or SRS is irrelevant, since they both move up and down against the IYR in a non-linear fashion. SRS could be 240 when the IYR is 30, or SRS could be 50 when the IYR is 30. In either case, SRS could be just as cheap or expensive. That's hard to wrap your head around, and sounds like bull, but it's really fundamental to understanding how to play these.
Heh..... I really do want him to go ahead with the investment plans. There's no poker game without a fish or two.
Eric
If I fail to get 15-25% from $55 then I'll tell you were right.
That's hard to wrap your head around, and sounds like bull, but it's really fundamental to understanding how to play these.
PapaSloth
You've played it before. Got out at around $95 a month or so ago, right? You're done with it now, you think the markets are going up?