I hope US Bancorp isn't insolvent. I opened a backup checking account there today, just because I don't want to rely 100% on E*Trade (which has very nice checking and savings accounts, BTW) and I wanted to have a local account for deposting checks, etc, anyway. I selected US Bank using a highly scientific process that included them having a branch in the grocery store where I shop, the fact that they pay microscopic interest rates which indicates they're not relying on hot money to fund operations, and that I have hardly heard anything at all about them in the press which has to count as a positive nowadays. We'll see...
There can't be a solvent bank. Any bank that was solvent would be unable to compete due to being disqualified from government investments and would promptly become insolvent. It's a variant of Gresham's law.
Lucky we've been running those huge surpluses lately. On an unrelated note, budgets are getting cut across the submarine force. Not necessarily a bad thing (the military does waste a lot of money), but a taste of things to come.
"thousands more private banks could apply for government capital as well"
i thought the private banks for were high net worth individuals only and are sitting on mountains of cash.
well i guess high net worth individuals want some of the taxpayer gravy train too. but not even sloppy seconds? yuck. oh the mores of the aristocrats....they like to watch a few rounds before joining in to "pull that train."
got to love American style socialism in that it is crony capitalism: now that we can believe in.
A question: some people have said that gold and silver are in for deflation.
I might argue that gold and silver are valuable because there is some guarantee that even if they suffer deflation, there is some guarantee that their value will re-inflate. Whereas with dollar deflation it is less certain it will re-inflate and be recognized as having value.
Is this a valid way of thinking about things? Did I just open up another in-de flation fight?
Under the assumption that gold has some "true" value, then under deflation the true value should stay the same even though the nominal value in dollars will decrease. So, an ounce of gold will buy the same amount of stuff it did before, but if you'd kept the equivalent dollars instead of buying gold you'd be able to buy more after the deflation. All of this is assuming that gold prices are rationally based on some true value which is probably not at all the case in reality.
Too bad they're not handing out universal health care. Imagine the immediate savings to small businesses and sole proprietors all over the country. Oh well.
YLSP writes:
Did I just open up another in-de flation fight?
You sure as hell did and I am gonna have to open up a can of whup-ass to Whip Inflation Now on you my friend.
"We are all deflated now."
how do beat de-flation? well if the Euro continues to drop against the UDS I would suggest Germany made Leica cameras, Bordeaux wine (check the vintage first), and English truffles (the growing in the ground kind where you need a special pig to find them)and stock pile them in a climate controlled, preferably underground, and secured facility (I refer to this as the basement or Man-Cave). Add some Cuban cigars and really aged Malt-Scotch or Burbon and a HD Big Screen with cable and a tivo and some a pair of Eames leather lounge chairs with foot rests...and you are prepared to what out the deflationary spiral (assuming your house does not go too far underwater).
eventually the Euro will re-bound against the USD and you will have done well my friend.
now go vote early and often. the home team needs your help.
YLSP, that's precisely the point. In times of chaos preservation OF capital, not return ON capital is the name of the game. Think of it as holding PM as like holding any other currency, just one that won't go all the way to zero.
but i cannot smoke or drink gold and feel better if it losses its value
where as with my plan i enjoy the ravages in a bunker like environment and take really good photos to preserve the memory of waiting the chaos out.
i am not so sold on the gold. i had a depression era grandmother whom horded gold during the inflationary 70s....by the time it made its way forward to younger generations gold was way down and it was a loss....of course my father could have just held on to it for awhile more i suppose and sold now...but to what end?....i think gold is something you sit on for psychological well-being and a sense of security...
We should all band together and try to buy a TV station/transmitter.
I'm thinking something like YouTube where you solicit people's videos via the Internet and then just transmit them somewhat randomly on the digital sub-channels. You could have 4 sub-channels of genre (not sure how much the new digital spectrum can hold).
Or maybe just CR-TV... conjure comminique's could be emergency broadcast system-like...
If we really are in a depression one of the joys will be seeing all the superfluous cable channels wiped off the cable lineup..
For me, gold only works if you rebalance into and out of it. It absorbs the shocks of unexpectedly high inflation, then you sell some of it and put it into stocks or bonds once they are back on their feet. That's the only reason I hang on to it. As a standalone investment it stinks because it has no intrinsic return.
locust writes:
Too bad they're not handing out universal health care. Imagine the immediate savings to small businesses and sole proprietors all over the country. Oh well.
I fail to understand why American business big or small would not get 100% behind universal health care.
Not just savings but a more healthy work force...and American companies would be on a more level field with our Communist overlords in China and our Socialist buddies in Europe.
But in the end...right-wing ideology, nationalism, fear, and false consciousness will win the day over being smart about globalization, education, community health, and the environment.
Easier to get in line for a piece of taxpayer ass.
Goldman Sachs is on course to pay its top City bankers multimillion-pound bonuses - despite asking the U.S. government for an emergency bail-out.
The struggling Wall Street bank has set aside £7billion for salaries and 2008 year-end bonuses, it emerged yesterday.
Each of the firms 443 partners is on course to pocket an average Christmas bonus of more than £3million.
The size of the pay pool comfortably dwarfs the £6.1billion lifeline which the U.S. government is throwing to Goldman as part of its £430billion bail-out.
As Washington pours money into the bank, the cash will immediately be channelled to Goldmans already well-heeled employees.
The gall of these bankers. The world will not crumble if they get ordinary pay, yet they believe themselves above it all. Talk about inviting regulation, especially if the Democrats sweep and get the magic 60 in the Senate.
Ooooooo, I'm seething. I expected as much but am still seething. I sent the article to my congresswomen and wrote the following note:
Goldman Sachs took money from the bailout and will use it to pay bonuses. This is outrageous! You need to do something to stop this waste of our money.
It is irresponsible for businesses to pay such big bonuses, particularly when those same businesses are at such high risk of collapse and losing gobs of money. It is likewise irresponsible for our government to prop companies up that have such irresponsible pay practices.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich writes:
At what point do the podunk regional banks just get thrown under the bus for their CRE sins?
A friend's wife is well placed in the FDIC. He told me week's ago that they have circumvented the bank failure problem. The strategy is to eliminate the concept of bank failure - since the number of coming failures was beyond their ability to cope. They are accentuating the positive - think happy thoughts - acquisitions are good. Failures are bad and would panic the public. Therefore, we will never see the true number of bank failures. We aren't as mature and intelligent as FDIC folks. We can't handle the truth. Although, as we are seeing, we will get the bill.
Fun fact: They were slightly disturbed that the primary method of preventing trading abuse (à la SocGen) at hedge funds was an "open-plan office"
"Hey everyone, can everybody hear me loud and clear? I'm just going to break the rules here. Fancy making myself an unauthorized trade, if it pays off I'm golden and if it doesn't then who could have known what the market would do. Ok so that unauthorized trade is 5,000 calls of... you getting this all down implicit supervisor busybodies? You can't be doing your own work while I'm committing a crime, come on"
Maybe the lines are getting longer because the CEO's see what the bailout is really good for (from Yves Smith):
Goldman Sachs is on course to pay its top City bankers multimillion-pound bonuses - despite asking the U.S. government for an emergency bail-out.
The struggling Wall Street bank has set aside £7billion for salaries and 2008 year-end bonuses, it emerged yesterday.
Each of the firm's 443 partners is on course to pocket an average Christmas bonus of more than £3million.
The size of the pay pool comfortably dwarfs the £6.1billion lifeline which the U.S. government is throwing to Goldman as part of its £430billion bail-out.
The important takeaway is that Goldman Sachs still has well north of $60bn in Level 3 assets, that if you follow their book keeping, that they don't want to write down. It was at $70bn and they might have worked off $2bn per quarter in the last year.
GS originated a tonne of ABS and derivatives thereof, and by far had the highest issuance:equity. They will need more money, a lot more. Their market cap should be cut in half just like MS was, but their trump card is government connections
Just like even JPM will have to face credit card write-offs, so to will GS's chickens come home to roost.
The rescue for Goldman will be the TARP. Can easily see them being the #1 seller into the TARP relative to their size, once that gets rolling.
No matter who the next president puts in the Treasury much of the work will have been done, and ex-GS are all throughout the Treasury -- no way they can lay them all off and not hire different alum to fill the posts. I'm a little over the top about the value of their connections, but it's because I've been jaded from the recent history.
We could cut healthcare costs to 1/4th of our current spending, if we did the following-
1] Prescribe drugs that have a therapeutic effect.. you know- cure or help. You would be surprised how many approved drugs have no demonstrable therapeutic effect.
2] Have a single payer healthcare system with no restrictions for trying new stuff + reward innovation, but crack down on outright fraud.
3] Pay by the hour/day- not by the procedure/visit.
3] Let doctors and other healthcare providers know that the restricted entry guild model is dead. If some oppose it- destroy their lives/ careers. Show no mercy..
4] Adequately fund expensive procedures that help people/ save lives. Do not ration life saving/ altering stuff. This is the single biggest fault of conventional socialized healthcare.
5] Make medical professionals tell patients the truth. A person who has failed the best chemo and is dying requires good pain control and other pallitative medications. Many surgical procedures have a negative effect on quality of life.
6] More than a few drugs that are barely used today or are no longer approved are quite effective if used judiciously. Use them!
7] Make sure that the minimum standards of healthcare are high. It is much easier and cheaper than you think.
8] Restrict administrative costs to less than 5% - make sure that any person who tries to increase bureaucracy, create more rules (or supports such people) is fired. Destroy their careers.. Again, show no mercy..
I think, we will reach there eventually, if we still have a country/ civilization left.
{From Bloomberg
Investors should sell commodity holdings and buy equities because raw-materials prices will fall further, said John Wilson, a co-director of equity research and chief market technician for Morgan Keegan, which manages $120 billion in Memphis, Tennessee.
Commodities aren't the place to be any more,'' Wilson said.They did outperform equities for some years, but it's difficult to make the case for commodities now until we see the trough of a recession.''}
think of doctors like mechanics and not like your personal care slaves. Just because I'm a doc, doesn't mean I owe you shit. You want what I got, you pay my price.
It is a business,and it used to be a good one. If a mechanic can't get paid what he thinks he is worth, he just tells you to go down the road, albeit you are walking. You aren't calculating for the personality of your doctor, and most give two flying shits whether you drink Coke until your diabetic leg falls off, or if you keep smoking because your retarded. You think a mechanic cares if you keep turning the key of a car is already running?? Nah, if your that dumb you will be buying lots of starters, and it is the same with medicine.
Doctors are dropping out of the system, as the business ain't so good anymore, and barely worth the effort. Regulate and tell a human what he can charge after he invested in his or her own future success, education and destroyed personal life for 10 years, and he will politely pick up his ball and leave, or shoot you in the face.
Interesting that Germany is having trouble getting their banks to accept government cash as their directors don't want to take the pay cuts and other strings that are attached thereto.
Chris Whalen's prediction that ALL of the big US banks will be nationalized next year is looking less and less improbable. How else to get them to do the government's will? As the NYT's
reported JPM isn't planning on increasing its lending rather using its piece of governnent cash to make
acquisitions.
About time to start dragging some of these bastards out in the street and giving them the beat down. Enough of this crap already. Bring on the revaluation.
Society does not owe you, your spouse, kids, grandkids an existence either...
Conjure's Bodyguard writes:
comrade xyz,
think of doctors like mechanics and not like your personal care slaves. Just because I'm a doc, doesn't mean I owe you shit. You want what I got, you pay my price.
We are in this hole now because doctors were allowed to convert a very comfortable profession into an unsustainable printing press to enrich themselves.
No one is saying that we should pay people poorly, just stop the license to print money.
what worries me about changing/lowering reimbursements for health care is that we will have trouble recruiting women and men for medical school.
One thing does seem very clear: stock markets - even assuming only the mildest of recessions - are not yet underpriced. The average peak-to-trough fall following a banking crisis is 55 per cent, in real terms.
There are more than a few here lately that should do more reading and research before they spout off about how much they know about how to 'fix' the system. Unless, of course, they are spoiling for either a fight or to sustain their extremist views that they probably got from listening to their relatives belching and bloviating opinions in front of the television. Oh, and BTW, while we're pointing out grammatical inaccuracies, learn the difference between the use you're and your before you spill another bucket of bile on the floor.
My sister is struggling to get by as a doctor. Being a doctor has not been a license to print money outside of optional services for a long time.
There is an issue recruiting the best and brightest into medicine now.
Let's put it this way, under some of the current tax systems, there is too little reward. Its worth more to have the time.
Oh... pay doctors to go through med school before cutting their post-graduate salaries. A doctor must be paid a higher wage as they must give up a decade of wages just to earn their education.
1/3rd of all medical dollars go to the lawyers. Stop the lawsuits and we'd see a huge cut in the un-needed services just to avoid the lawsuits. Not to mention most doctors pay more for malpractice insurance than their takehome. It isn't the doctors running up the costs... They are just trying to do their lives. If you want to show no mercy, start with Shakepeare's advice!
Treasury and banking regulators say as many as 1,800 publicly held institutions could apply for government investments in coming weeks, out of concern that failing to do so could make them losers in a banking sector reshaped by the Treasury's $700 billion rescue plan.
So far the UST/FED have been acting heavily in favor of a few well connected big fish. The little fish are now scrambling to avoid being EATED.
1] Do most current medical interventions have any significant benefit for reducing mortality/ morbidity for chronic treatment of diseases like Type II DM, CVD and the vast majority of metastatic non-hematological malignancies?
2] Do you require a overpriced shyster/ blackmailer to prescribe the drugs that work?
3] Do the vast majority of doctors diagnose illness methodically or just act the part?
4] Are there any incentives for the doctor to care about the outcome, except for getting reimbursed by following protocol?
5] Is the vast majority of the BS doctors profess to believe about lifestyle and illness true? I am not saying that eating a high carbohydrate diet is without consequences, but how many lifestyle interventions have been shown to work in large trials where doctors were not involved concocting data?
6] What is the cost benefit analysis for the current system? Are we paying more for less? if so- why?
7] About the car mechanic analogy- Is the current system a free and transparent market?
And last, but not the least-
Do you live under the illusion that a person who is part of a guild, with low accountability cares about your welfare,, especially when the vast majority of them went in the profession for power trips and money?
Have you learned nothing from the financial crisis?? People with undeserved power and egos who work in opaque system are shysters..
KKR & Co. LP, the leveraged buyout firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, delayed plans to go public for a second time in a year as the credit crisis eroded the value of its investments.
Commerzbank has become Germany's first commercial bank to turn to the government for capital, taking 8.2 billion euros ($10.5 billion) from Berlin on Monday to prop up its flagging finances.
"Conjure's Bodyguard writes: Just because I'm a doc, doesn't mean I owe you shit. You want what I got, you pay my price ... It is a business,and it used to be a good one."
The biggest problem we have are hacks for whom this world is a "business." Everything has a price, money rules, give it all to the rich guy. This thinking is why we have placed a profit motive on everything from health care to education.
A merchant can't know this, but some people actually have a calling to medically help people. Some are more than merchants. Some have a calling to be teachers, and yes, mechanics. Passionate, intrinsically motivated people are what make things work, not the extrinsic greed slimed all over everything by corrupting it with a bottomless, annihilating "profit motive."
Some people actually love their work, and don't base their thinking on how much money there is in it. These people have been crippled in their professions as "I'm just here for the money" hacks clog up the systems and give back as little as possible.
Merchants cannot run society, because they think like Conjure's Bodyguard. They are the corruption of our world, our human plague, who can see no other purpose in life but dead, lifeless coin.
The disaster came because so many were conned into the twisted belief that everyone exists only to make money.
if I stop at a car accident in the middle of nowhere, and even though I have minimal equipment/supplies, I can be sued for malpractice if something goes bad or is unable to be corrected in primitive conditions.
I can be sued for not providing care to the level of my ability, regardless of circumstance.
You know what? I don't stop. I will not stop. I can't. You may die at the side of that road, but I will not risk my ability to "put food on my family".
You think that is an enjoyable feeling?
xyz,
the lense of your opinion is not the whole of reality. While I understand the sentiment, the reality is far different.
We all know what listening to "well known experts" did to the financial system.
Read some history- The majority of screwups, disasters and unnecessary suffering in history came about because people listened to "renowned experts".
Volker the Viking writes:
There are more than a few here lately that should do more reading and research before they spout off about how much they know about how to 'fix' the system. Unless, of course, they are spoiling for either a fight or to sustain their extremist views that they probably got from listening to their relatives belching and bloviating opinions in front of the television. Oh, and BTW, while we're pointing out grammatical inaccuracies, learn the difference between the use you're and your before you spill another bucket of bile on the floor.
Utilities are becoming more aggressive about collecting money from delinquent customers, leading to a surge in service shutdowns just as economic woes are pushing up the number of households falling behind on bills.
xyz--no, I do not miss the days of ophthalmologists raping the system for ridiculous reimbursements for removing cataracts. No one should be allowed to do that, whether bankers or docs.
The point is that it is a physically, emotionally and financially grueling endeavor to become a physician. It seems to me that docs should be compensated accordingly.
How much do you think a general surgeon should make per year? What about a family doc?
Rather short term outlook: I'm looking for a test of the high volume low bar from last Tuesday, SPX 922.26, INDU 8800.61, NDX 1272.19. If volume comes in, we've got downside action; otherwise it's consolidation. NDX appears the weakest of the 3. Markets can go higher before they test that low, but they'll need more volume as well or they'll be right back down.
Eliminate astronomical medical malpractice insurance rates by:
1) dealing with doctors who are repeatedly or recklessly negligent through loss of license and criminal penalties, rather than through the tort system; and
2) providing health care, home care, and occupational support for all of our disabled, not just for those who are lucky enough to be injured by someone with a deep pocket.
"Commerzbank has become Germany's first commercial bank to turn to the government for capital, taking 8.2 billion euros ($10.5 billion) from Berlin on Monday to prop up its flagging finances."
God, I hope that means the government stops begging banks to take money! It's soooo...unseemly.
No one is asking doctors to live a life of poverty. The question is - what is their skill worth?
A competent neurovascular surgeon certainly deserves a very good lifestyle, but what about a subspeciality like say someone who performs cardiac catheterization/ balloon angioplasty? (not exactly the same skill level as bypass surgery)
We cetainly have too many lawyers and MBAs in the country.
Conjure's Bodyguard writes:
if I stop at a car accident in the middle of nowhere, and even though I have minimal equipment/supplies, I can be sued for malpractice if something goes bad or is unable to be corrected in primitive conditions.
JR,
Lumping "people like me" into a profit motive cabal is disingenuous, and offensive.
Great article on alt energy yesterday on PBS. Question posed: Why would a bright young student want to be an engineer in the energy field, if he knew he would be laid off 5 years later and working at McDonald's, as there is not enough broad based support to change our energy infrastructure??
Answer: he doesn't. He becomes a civil instead, building the next subdivision.
Same with doc's. No good reason today to do it, as while the service aspects are rewarding, most people don't have that Mother Theresa thing.
Question for you.
How many color TV's do YOU own you selfish uncaring bastard. See, it isn't the totality of your experience, and doesn't make you feel good either.
A competent neurovascular surgeon certainly deserves a very good lifestyle, but what about a subspeciality like say someone who performs cardiac catheterization/ balloon angioplasty
he no more deserves a nice lifestyle anymore than the garbage man.
the garbage man serves more people, make's people way happier.
With all due respect, we could go into healthcare, education, defense or any of a host of subjects related to the domestic economy here.
But in point of fact, there is a global economic crisis in progress, and most of us come here particularly for informed opinion on that specific subject.
Since signal:noise is an ongoing problem, could we put off reforming healthcare delivery until we have an idea whether or not a functioning global economy is a part of out near-term future?
I am aware of that. However, the next areas to get hit by this crisis are going to our healthcare reimbursement model and pensions. These hits will have very real and nasty consequences.
But in point of fact, there is a global economic crisis in progress, and most of us come here particularly for informed opinion on that specific subject.
"How many color TV's do YOU own you selfish uncaring bastard."
None - and that does make me a selfish uncaring person, because I am not participating in our national discussion about the latest ads, much less having my behavior influenced by said ads.
But if it helps, I do know a P&G marketing manager who is currently in charge of the media accounts to help convince the roughly under 15 year old set of girls to start shaving their legs - which will lead to some economic activity.
I'm too selfish to let my 11 year old daughter watch the 'programming' which the ads are embedded in - as the reality TV program itself is sponsored, discretely, by P&G.
Things must be really bad at GS if they would risk the inevitable backlash of paying out bonuses. This is something that you would only do if you knew the company was bankrupt.
Whatev writes:
One thing does seem very clear: stock markets - even assuming only the mildest of recessions - are not yet underpriced. The average peak-to-trough fall following a banking crisis is 55 per cent, in real terms.
I think we have a ways to go.
Agreed. To date, the mkt drop can largely be attributed to the evaporation of capital in the shadow banking system. The recent margin call tested but did not exhaust the depths of level III asset woes.
To those issues, we have now begun to add normal recessionary losses. A lower consumer demand has likely been priced in, but we have yet to assess credit losses that accompany unemployment. Consumers face hefty credit card bills and auto payments for purchases they previously made. In a consumer driven economy, corporate profits will be depressed longer and by more than previously thought.
Mechanics are not like doctors in several ways. First they are not members of a guild which limits membership. (closing teaching hoppitals,etc.)Also they cannot stifle competition (think: limiting nurse practitioners).
Why are you all complaining? Let's just call the TARP an economic stimulus package that distributes cash to the people that need it most - bankers. Or do you want their butlers to starve? Have you no shame?
The gov should pay for med school loans and require all practicing docs to perform xx% of their time at public clinics where they would receive nominal pay.
Funny, no mention of how the small banks are being thrown under the bus by the FDIC. Take a gander at the new premiums the FDIC is charging. They are an "insurance company" after all.
Just one more example of small, frugal saver being ruined to rescue the global banking syndicate. Thomas Jefferson, where are you? We really need you now.
After the erection, the winner and his council will huddle inside the beltway. Access will be limited. Rumors will seep out, trial balloons will be lifted. Smoke will come forth from a chimney--white or black. Dunno, still looks gray to me. Speculation will fill the 24/7 news cycle. We will all watch and wait.
Numbers, numbers, numbers will spill out of reports and analysis and tables and graphs and charts will populate the air and splatter the paper. And when it's all said and done, there will be much more said than is done.
The resolution of the current situation will evolve into another situation. Then another and another in sedulous drizzle until at last we will have a resolution. Followed fast on the heels of this will come yet more situations, etc.
what is the outlook for day after tomorrow. whoever will have been elected.will the market turn around. will oil stay where it is,
you know that a lot of people think this mess is to get whoever/whomever elected and things will be normal.
i dont think that,i dont think we are half way though this mess,not even close.
Anonymouse, I already called them. They are fresh out of pitchforks. I blame GS. I bet they purchased all the pitchforks on the island before letting out news of their bonus pool. Clever bastards.
How about making the penalty for malpractice not money, but revocation of Medical licence? There'd be no need for big insurance then, as the doctor would just be unable to work at all.
Saves money, and no more doctor, which is always a plus.
Get off the doctors. The medical system is hideously broken and you focus on its most visible peons. They really don't get paid that much considering how much money/time they spend on education. At least the doctors sometimes do something useful. Save your wrath for the bankers and the lawyers.
Conjure's Bodyguard writes:
if I stop at a car accident in the middle of nowhere, and even though I have minimal equipment/supplies, I can be sued for malpractice if something goes bad or is unable to be corrected in primitive conditions.
I can be sued for not providing care to the level of my ability, regardless of circumstance.
You know what? I don't stop. I will not stop. I can't. You may die at the side of that road, but I will not risk my ability to "put food on my family".
You think that is an enjoyable feeling?
xyz,
the lense of your opinion is not the whole of reality. While I understand the sentiment, the reality is far different.
Conjure's Bodyguard | 11.03.08 - 7:45 am | #
I may be wrong here, but I thought there existed a "good Samaritan" law to protect anyone providing aid, at least up to a certain level; ie, staining that person(s) until official aid arrived.
Why stop at banks? I'd wager most companies are technically insolvent, as well. GAAP allows A LOT of leeway in recognition and having cash flow to pay the near term bills is not the same as having the ability to stay afloat another 18 months with 30% less sales.
Little comment on medicine save to say that my personal experience with doctors (on a personal/friend level) is that they're pissed and/or dis-illusioned.
Based on what I've witnessed and listened to, the "practice" of the doctor has been co-opted by Big Pharma. If doctors wanted to make a case for their pay, they should reduce the percentage of their practice dedicated to writing scripts.
Anyway, that's the case I've made in our conversations. The response I get back is that that is what patients demand and that I don't understand the business of medicine. "Well, I rest my case", say I.
EHP - thanks. I'll be talking to the IMF WEO team later today and will dig into their numbers.
For the stocks commenters - equities are a lagging indicator. Keep that in mind.
Volker - there's some wild talk of systemic rescue going on. Like I said to EHP the other day, we should all go back to the drawing board and thoroughly read Present at the Creation by Dean Acheson, where he describes how the current system came into being - it's the closest thing to being at Bretton Woods that I've found. It may be out of print, but there are online copies.
like say someone who performs cardiac catheterization/ balloon angioplasty
After watching my wife go through four years or med school, a year of internship, four years of residency and a year of fellowship still get nervous doing it, I'd say it's harder than digging a ditch and probably harder than whatever you do for a living.
My wife's average salary over those 10 years was probably about 25k (and she went to a public med school, so it wasn't too expensive.) For all the time she put in, I'd be surprised if she averaged better than minimum wage. She now works 70% time to spend time with our son and makes about 10% more than I do as Silicon Valley computer programmer.
No way in bloody hell that exhaustion and sacrifice was worth it for the money. If you are in it for the money, become a banker or lawyer. Or, better, a banker/lawyer.
Woody - I think it would be safe to say that you don't have country-club membership fees, yatch maintenance and moorage and crew expenses, personal jet pilot on 24 hour call, private hanger expenses, a fleet of vintage and luxury vehicles to store and maintain, and other necessities too numerous to mention, including multiple homes around the world, fully staffed, of course. So I don't see why you have any reason to bitch.
Gentlemen and any ladies in the group. How about a real-life example of how gold can protect ones purchasing power. Forget its an investment. Forget its not an investment.
My mother, age 92, lives in Southern California, as do I, age 58. She owns gold which I began purchasing for her and my (now deceased) father in the early 1970s. Ill use gallons of regular unleaded gasoline for comparison, since we all need to buy gasoline today and in the future.
Late in 1973, I bought her several US Saint-Gaudens $20 gold pieces in Choice Mint State condition. Cost per coin, $199 basis $159 an ounce London PM fix. She still owns them. Here are the relationships (the gasoline is in Peoples State of Southern California prices, mind you, cheaper elsewhere):
Jan. 1974
Gas $0.53
Gold $159
Gallons of gas per ounce of gold: 250
$20 Saint-Gaudens coin $199
Gallons of gas forgone to purchase one coin: 375
Today, November 3, 2008
Gas $2.59
Comex Paper Gold $726
Gallons of gas per paper ounce: 280
Krugerrand gold ounce (actual dealer buy price) $800
Gallons of gas per Krugerrand: 308
$20 Gold Coin $940 (current buy price, Heritage Galleries, Dallas, Texas, a 400-employee corporation).
Gallons of gas per $20 gold coin: 362
Summary: My mother and father gave up the use of 375 gallons of gasoline in 1973 to purchase a $20 gold coin. Today, the buying power is 362 gallons of gas.
Why am I not surprised..
18-month Capital One CD at 4.41% advertised right on this site. Looks like Capital One is toast.
At what point do the podunk regional banks just get thrown under the bus for their CRE sins?
Is there any large or medium size bank in the US/ Europe that is not insolvent?
Is there any large or medium size bank in the US/ Europe/ Canada/ Australia that is not insolvent?
I hope US Bancorp isn't insolvent. I opened a backup checking account there today, just because I don't want to rely 100% on E*Trade (which has very nice checking and savings accounts, BTW) and I wanted to have a local account for deposting checks, etc, anyway. I selected US Bank using a highly scientific process that included them having a branch in the grocery store where I shop, the fact that they pay microscopic interest rates which indicates they're not relying on hot money to fund operations, and that I have hardly heard anything at all about them in the press which has to count as a positive nowadays. We'll see...
"government investments"
BBBWWWWaaaaahaaaaaahaaaaaa.
There can't be a solvent bank. Any bank that was solvent would be unable to compete due to being disqualified from government investments and would promptly become insolvent. It's a variant of Gresham's law.
NYT: Rescue Cash Lures Thousands of Voters
No surprise there. One of many holes in the myth of the US being the model for free-market capitalism.
Lucky we've been running those huge surpluses lately. On an unrelated note, budgets are getting cut across the submarine force. Not necessarily a bad thing (the military does waste a lot of money), but a taste of things to come.
"thousands more private banks could apply for government capital as well"
i thought the private banks for were high net worth individuals only and are sitting on mountains of cash.
well i guess high net worth individuals want some of the taxpayer gravy train too. but not even sloppy seconds? yuck. oh the mores of the aristocrats....they like to watch a few rounds before joining in to "pull that train."
got to love American style socialism in that it is crony capitalism: now that we can believe in.
The four horseman: Debt, Derivatives, Deficit and the dollar.
Kinda catchy alliteration.
http://www.cornerstoneri.com/comments/White4Horsemen2.pdf
Good news people, you do not have to rob a bank to get rich.
You can start a bank, run it into the ground and get rich. Then you can ask the fed to bail you out and reboot the scam. Isn't life great!!
Uncle Sam, bail bondsman of last resort.
Wow, that last thread was a real winner. It wasn't exactly the conjurecast I expected after mp popped up for air earlier today.
Sigh...
I canz b bank 2?
I haz toasterz.
A question: some people have said that gold and silver are in for deflation.
I might argue that gold and silver are valuable because there is some guarantee that even if they suffer deflation, there is some guarantee that their value will re-inflate. Whereas with dollar deflation it is less certain it will re-inflate and be recognized as having value.
Is this a valid way of thinking about things? Did I just open up another in-de flation fight?
No one expects the Spanish Inquisition, orconjurecast...
Here's a note about vixy:
`Old VIX' Shows More Sustained Fear Than in 1987: Chart of Day - Bloomberg.com
Yikes. Key words: "sustained fear" .
CC
Under the assumption that gold has some "true" value, then under deflation the true value should stay the same even though the nominal value in dollars will decrease. So, an ounce of gold will buy the same amount of stuff it did before, but if you'd kept the equivalent dollars instead of buying gold you'd be able to buy more after the deflation. All of this is assuming that gold prices are rationally based on some true value which is probably not at all the case in reality.
Too bad they're not handing out universal health care. Imagine the immediate savings to small businesses and sole proprietors all over the country. Oh well.
YLSP writes:
Did I just open up another in-de flation fight?
You sure as hell did and I am gonna have to open up a can of whup-ass to Whip Inflation Now on you my friend.
"We are all deflated now."
how do beat de-flation? well if the Euro continues to drop against the UDS I would suggest Germany made Leica cameras, Bordeaux wine (check the vintage first), and English truffles (the growing in the ground kind where you need a special pig to find them)and stock pile them in a climate controlled, preferably underground, and secured facility (I refer to this as the basement or Man-Cave). Add some Cuban cigars and really aged Malt-Scotch or Burbon and a HD Big Screen with cable and a tivo and some a pair of Eames leather lounge chairs with foot rests...and you are prepared to what out the deflationary spiral (assuming your house does not go too far underwater).
eventually the Euro will re-bound against the USD and you will have done well my friend.
now go vote early and often. the home team needs your help.
Depressions bring everyone so much closer together.
Might improve the numbers here:
Sex Difficulties in Women Not Distressing to Most (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
CC
YLSP, that's precisely the point. In times of chaos preservation OF capital, not return ON capital is the name of the game. Think of it as holding PM as like holding any other currency, just one that won't go all the way to zero.
EEngineer - you realize yr channeling Mark Twain?
Seriously, exact quote.
CC
but i cannot smoke or drink gold and feel better if it losses its value
where as with my plan i enjoy the ravages in a bunker like environment and take really good photos to preserve the memory of waiting the chaos out.
i am not so sold on the gold. i had a depression era grandmother whom horded gold during the inflationary 70s....by the time it made its way forward to younger generations gold was way down and it was a loss....of course my father could have just held on to it for awhile more i suppose and sold now...but to what end?....i think gold is something you sit on for psychological well-being and a sense of security...
We should all band together and try to buy a TV station/transmitter.
I'm thinking something like YouTube where you solicit people's videos via the Internet and then just transmit them somewhat randomly on the digital sub-channels. You could have 4 sub-channels of genre (not sure how much the new digital spectrum can hold).
Or maybe just CR-TV... conjure comminique's could be emergency broadcast system-like...
If we really are in a depression one of the joys will be seeing all the superfluous cable channels wiped off the cable lineup..
For me, gold only works if you rebalance into and out of it. It absorbs the shocks of unexpectedly high inflation, then you sell some of it and put it into stocks or bonds once they are back on their feet. That's the only reason I hang on to it. As a standalone investment it stinks because it has no intrinsic return.
locust writes:
Too bad they're not handing out universal health care. Imagine the immediate savings to small businesses and sole proprietors all over the country. Oh well.
I fail to understand why American business big or small would not get 100% behind universal health care.
Not just savings but a more healthy work force...and American companies would be on a more level field with our Communist overlords in China and our Socialist buddies in Europe.
But in the end...right-wing ideology, nationalism, fear, and false consciousness will win the day over being smart about globalization, education, community health, and the environment.
Easier to get in line for a piece of taxpayer ass.
Perhaps, they look at it the same way Goldman Sachs does - Bonuses!
ALL ABOARD! Hop on the Gravy Train!
Goldman Sachs ready to hand out £7BILLION salary and bonus package after its £6bn bail-out
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1081624/Goldman-Sachs-ready-hand-7BILLION-salary-bonus-package--6bn-bail-out.html
Goldman Sachs is on course to pay its top City bankers multimillion-pound bonuses - despite asking the U.S. government for an emergency bail-out.
The struggling Wall Street bank has set aside £7billion for salaries and 2008 year-end bonuses, it emerged yesterday.
Each of the firms 443 partners is on course to pocket an average Christmas bonus of more than £3million.
The size of the pay pool comfortably dwarfs the £6.1billion lifeline which the U.S. government is throwing to Goldman as part of its £430billion bail-out.
As Washington pours money into the bank, the cash will immediately be channelled to Goldmans already well-heeled employees.
The gall of these bankers. The world will not crumble if they get ordinary pay, yet they believe themselves above it all. Talk about inviting regulation, especially if the Democrats sweep and get the magic 60 in the Senate.
Ooooooo, I'm seething. I expected as much but am still seething. I sent the article to my congresswomen and wrote the following note:
Goldman Sachs took money from the bailout and will use it to pay bonuses. This is outrageous! You need to do something to stop this waste of our money.
It is irresponsible for businesses to pay such big bonuses, particularly when those same businesses are at such high risk of collapse and losing gobs of money. It is likewise irresponsible for our government to prop companies up that have such irresponsible pay practices.
"Goldman Sachs took money from the bailout and will use it to pay bonuses."
Pull that train. Come on American taxpayer....can you squeal like a pig?
dfb,
Really it is just the other stimulus package the George, Hank, and Paul have been taking about.
Or did you not get the memo from corporate?
German banks which are bailed out can't pay dividends. Will Congress hold to the same standard?
There's a new terrist in town:
U Bin Skrood.
CC
A pony in every pot!
Their strategy seems to be to get these deflationary pressures whipped!
C'mon velocity.. ramp up... and then at long last.. Helllooooo Inflation.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich writes:
At what point do the podunk regional banks just get thrown under the bus for their CRE sins?
A friend's wife is well placed in the FDIC. He told me week's ago that they have circumvented the bank failure problem. The strategy is to eliminate the concept of bank failure - since the number of coming failures was beyond their ability to cope. They are accentuating the positive - think happy thoughts - acquisitions are good. Failures are bad and would panic the public. Therefore, we will never see the true number of bank failures. We aren't as mature and intelligent as FDIC folks. We can't handle the truth. Although, as we are seeing, we will get the bill.
Fascism gives me such a warm and fuzzy feeling.
fallonPDX writes: I fail to understand why American business big or small would not get 100% behind universal health care.
Maybe because the government would bring the same fine synergies to healthcare that it brought to the banking system?
Sorry Ben, the republic was lost when I got here.
From the UK's FSA:
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/newsletters/mw_newsletter29.pdf
Fun fact: They were slightly disturbed that the primary method of preventing trading abuse (à la SocGen) at hedge funds was an "open-plan office"
"Hey everyone, can everybody hear me loud and clear? I'm just going to break the rules here. Fancy making myself an unauthorized trade, if it pays off I'm golden and if it doesn't then who could have known what the market would do. Ok so that unauthorized trade is 5,000 calls of... you getting this all down implicit supervisor busybodies? You can't be doing your own work while I'm committing a crime, come on"
(I'm rolling my eyes for effect right now)
Maybe the lines are getting longer because the CEO's see what the bailout is really good for (from Yves Smith):
Goldman Sachs is on course to pay its top City bankers multimillion-pound bonuses - despite asking the U.S. government for an emergency bail-out.
The struggling Wall Street bank has set aside £7billion for salaries and 2008 year-end bonuses, it emerged yesterday.
Each of the firm's 443 partners is on course to pocket an average Christmas bonus of more than £3million.
The size of the pay pool comfortably dwarfs the £6.1billion lifeline which the U.S. government is throwing to Goldman as part of its £430billion bail-out.
"Goldman Sachs ready to hand out £7bn salary and bonus package… after its £6bn bail-out" « naked capitalism
This would be a direct transfer of money from the taxpayers to the bankers' personal accounts. As a taxpayer, can I opt out of this bailout program?
It is a rescue window not a bailout window! It is much better sounding when phrased that way, and therefore should be used thusly.
Capitalist Brothers Unite!
http://thumbsnap.com/v/N9m91UZm.jpg
I hope they don't hide it too well. We're going to have a heckuva time getting all that money back.
curious-er,
The important takeaway is that Goldman Sachs still has well north of $60bn in Level 3 assets, that if you follow their book keeping, that they don't want to write down. It was at $70bn and they might have worked off $2bn per quarter in the last year.
GS originated a tonne of ABS and derivatives thereof, and by far had the highest issuance:equity. They will need more money, a lot more. Their market cap should be cut in half just like MS was, but their trump card is government connections
Just like even JPM will have to face credit card write-offs, so to will GS's chickens come home to roost.
The rescue for Goldman will be the TARP. Can easily see them being the #1 seller into the TARP relative to their size, once that gets rolling.
No matter who the next president puts in the Treasury much of the work will have been done, and ex-GS are all throughout the Treasury -- no way they can lay them all off and not hire different alum to fill the posts. I'm a little over the top about the value of their connections, but it's because I've been jaded from the recent history.
Worthwhile link of the day:
FT Alphaville extremely readable summary of the IMF WEO update
Covers impacts of financial crises with different financial regulations. Lots of charts squished in the summary
EHp--that is a Bloomberg link.
We could cut healthcare costs to 1/4th of our current spending, if we did the following-
1] Prescribe drugs that have a therapeutic effect.. you know- cure or help. You would be surprised how many approved drugs have no demonstrable therapeutic effect.
2] Have a single payer healthcare system with no restrictions for trying new stuff + reward innovation, but crack down on outright fraud.
3] Pay by the hour/day- not by the procedure/visit.
3] Let doctors and other healthcare providers know that the restricted entry guild model is dead. If some oppose it- destroy their lives/ careers. Show no mercy..
4] Adequately fund expensive procedures that help people/ save lives. Do not ration life saving/ altering stuff. This is the single biggest fault of conventional socialized healthcare.
5] Make medical professionals tell patients the truth. A person who has failed the best chemo and is dying requires good pain control and other pallitative medications. Many surgical procedures have a negative effect on quality of life.
6] More than a few drugs that are barely used today or are no longer approved are quite effective if used judiciously. Use them!
7] Make sure that the minimum standards of healthcare are high. It is much easier and cheaper than you think.
8] Restrict administrative costs to less than 5% - make sure that any person who tries to increase bureaucracy, create more rules (or supports such people) is fired. Destroy their careers.. Again, show no mercy..
I think, we will reach there eventually, if we still have a country/ civilization left.
Sorry Anonymous,
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Peak to trough: the world’s crisis
That's the one I meant to post
Rush to equities for safety eh?
{From Bloomberg
Investors should sell commodity holdings and buy equities because raw-materials prices will fall further, said John Wilson, a co-director of equity research and chief market technician for Morgan Keegan, which manages $120 billion in Memphis, Tennessee.
Commodities aren't the place to be any more,'' Wilson said.They did outperform equities for some years, but it's difficult to make the case for commodities now until we see the trough of a recession.''}
xyz--what worries me about changing/lowering reimbursements for health care is that we will have trouble recruiting women and men for medical school.
comrade xyz,
think of doctors like mechanics and not like your personal care slaves. Just because I'm a doc, doesn't mean I owe you shit. You want what I got, you pay my price.
It is a business,and it used to be a good one. If a mechanic can't get paid what he thinks he is worth, he just tells you to go down the road, albeit you are walking. You aren't calculating for the personality of your doctor, and most give two flying shits whether you drink Coke until your diabetic leg falls off, or if you keep smoking because your retarded. You think a mechanic cares if you keep turning the key of a car is already running?? Nah, if your that dumb you will be buying lots of starters, and it is the same with medicine.
Doctors are dropping out of the system, as the business ain't so good anymore, and barely worth the effort. Regulate and tell a human what he can charge after he invested in his or her own future success, education and destroyed personal life for 10 years, and he will politely pick up his ball and leave, or shoot you in the face.
Interesting that Germany is having trouble getting their banks to accept government cash as their directors don't want to take the pay cuts and other strings that are attached thereto.
Chris Whalen's prediction that ALL of the big US banks will be nationalized next year is looking less and less improbable. How else to get them to do the government's will? As the NYT's
reported JPM isn't planning on increasing its lending rather using its piece of governnent cash to make
acquisitions.
About time to start dragging some of these bastards out in the street and giving them the beat down. Enough of this crap already. Bring on the revaluation.
Well said Conjure's Bodyguard!
two - ten yields seem to be edging wider
1.57 - 3.95
harbinger, canary or reversion to mean?
Society does not owe you, your spouse, kids, grandkids an existence either...
Conjure's Bodyguard writes:
comrade xyz,
think of doctors like mechanics and not like your personal care slaves. Just because I'm a doc, doesn't mean I owe you shit. You want what I got, you pay my price.
xyz writes:
Society does not owe you, your spouse, kids, grandkids an existence either...
The extremists come out
Remember though, they do have an inalienable right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
We are in this hole now because doctors were allowed to convert a very comfortable profession into an unsustainable printing press to enrich themselves.
No one is saying that we should pay people poorly, just stop the license to print money.
what worries me about changing/lowering reimbursements for health care is that we will have trouble recruiting women and men for medical school.
xyz--are you kidding me? Those days are over.
Check this out:
Physician Compensation Data, Doctor Salary, Physician Pay | Cejka Search
From EHPs link above, this stands out:
One thing does seem very clear: stock markets - even assuming only the mildest of recessions - are not yet underpriced. The average peak-to-trough fall following a banking crisis is 55 per cent, in real terms.
I think we have a ways to go.
There are more than a few here lately that should do more reading and research before they spout off about how much they know about how to 'fix' the system. Unless, of course, they are spoiling for either a fight or to sustain their extremist views that they probably got from listening to their relatives belching and bloviating opinions in front of the television. Oh, and BTW, while we're pointing out grammatical inaccuracies, learn the difference between the use you're and your before you spill another bucket of bile on the floor.
Conjure's Bodyguard | 11.03.08 - 6:52 am | #
As a 20 year mechanic I approve this message...
Chris
Brother, can you spare $10 Billion?
xyz
My sister is struggling to get by as a doctor. Being a doctor has not been a license to print money outside of optional services for a long time.
There is an issue recruiting the best and brightest into medicine now.
Let's put it this way, under some of the current tax systems, there is too little reward. Its worth more to have the time.
Oh... pay doctors to go through med school before cutting their post-graduate salaries. A doctor must be paid a higher wage as they must give up a decade of wages just to earn their education.
1/3rd of all medical dollars go to the lawyers. Stop the lawsuits and we'd see a huge cut in the un-needed services just to avoid the lawsuits. Not to mention most doctors pay more for malpractice insurance than their takehome. It isn't the doctors running up the costs... They are just trying to do their lives. If you want to show no mercy, start with Shakepeare's advice!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Just what we need, more overpaid government employees. They don't pay taxes, they are the tax.
fallonPDX writes:
"Goldman Sachs took money from the bailout and will use it to pay bonuses."
thats just trickle-down economics at work!
Treasury and banking regulators say as many as 1,800 publicly held institutions could apply for government investments in coming weeks, out of concern that failing to do so could make them losers in a banking sector reshaped by the Treasury's $700 billion rescue plan.
So far the UST/FED have been acting heavily in favor of a few well connected big fish. The little fish are now scrambling to avoid being EATED.
1/3rd of all medical dollars go to the lawyers.
This just isn't true. 1/3 (roughly) goes to administrative costs.
Lets get real-
1] Do most current medical interventions have any significant benefit for reducing mortality/ morbidity for chronic treatment of diseases like Type II DM, CVD and the vast majority of metastatic non-hematological malignancies?
2] Do you require a overpriced shyster/ blackmailer to prescribe the drugs that work?
3] Do the vast majority of doctors diagnose illness methodically or just act the part?
4] Are there any incentives for the doctor to care about the outcome, except for getting reimbursed by following protocol?
5] Is the vast majority of the BS doctors profess to believe about lifestyle and illness true? I am not saying that eating a high carbohydrate diet is without consequences, but how many lifestyle interventions have been shown to work in large trials where doctors were not involved concocting data?
6] What is the cost benefit analysis for the current system? Are we paying more for less? if so- why?
7] About the car mechanic analogy- Is the current system a free and transparent market?
And last, but not the least-
Do you live under the illusion that a person who is part of a guild, with low accountability cares about your welfare,, especially when the vast majority of them went in the profession for power trips and money?
Have you learned nothing from the financial crisis?? People with undeserved power and egos who work in opaque system are shysters..
Sure, if they respect those rights for others. Heard of the social contract?
Remember though, they do have an inalienable right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
Volker the Viking | 11.03.08 - 7:12 am |
KKR & Co. LP, the leveraged buyout firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, delayed plans to go public for a second time in a year as the credit crisis eroded the value of its investments.
KKR Delays Plans to Go Public Amid Market Turmoil (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
bush's depression brought to you by the league of bald headed men.
Don't you miss those days? But the fun has only just begun.
Whatev writes:
xyz--are you kidding me? Those days are over.
Volker re: bloviating. Never heard it before. Looked it up--like it.
Commerzbank has become Germany's first commercial bank to turn to the government for capital, taking 8.2 billion euros ($10.5 billion) from Berlin on Monday to prop up its flagging finances.
Commerzbank Gets $10.5 Billion from State - Financials * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com
Currently, insurance and hospitals are the worst offenders, but they got the idea from doctors..
This just isn't true. 1/3 (roughly) goes to administrative costs.
PeakVT |
"Conjure's Bodyguard writes: Just because I'm a doc, doesn't mean I owe you shit. You want what I got, you pay my price ... It is a business,and it used to be a good one."
The biggest problem we have are hacks for whom this world is a "business." Everything has a price, money rules, give it all to the rich guy. This thinking is why we have placed a profit motive on everything from health care to education.
A merchant can't know this, but some people actually have a calling to medically help people. Some are more than merchants. Some have a calling to be teachers, and yes, mechanics. Passionate, intrinsically motivated people are what make things work, not the extrinsic greed slimed all over everything by corrupting it with a bottomless, annihilating "profit motive."
Some people actually love their work, and don't base their thinking on how much money there is in it. These people have been crippled in their professions as "I'm just here for the money" hacks clog up the systems and give back as little as possible.
Merchants cannot run society, because they think like Conjure's Bodyguard. They are the corruption of our world, our human plague, who can see no other purpose in life but dead, lifeless coin.
The disaster came because so many were conned into the twisted belief that everyone exists only to make money.
if I stop at a car accident in the middle of nowhere, and even though I have minimal equipment/supplies, I can be sued for malpractice if something goes bad or is unable to be corrected in primitive conditions.
I can be sued for not providing care to the level of my ability, regardless of circumstance.
You know what? I don't stop. I will not stop. I can't. You may die at the side of that road, but I will not risk my ability to "put food on my family".
You think that is an enjoyable feeling?
xyz,
the lense of your opinion is not the whole of reality. While I understand the sentiment, the reality is far different.
We all know what listening to "well known experts" did to the financial system.
Read some history- The majority of screwups, disasters and unnecessary suffering in history came about because people listened to "renowned experts".
Volker the Viking writes:
There are more than a few here lately that should do more reading and research before they spout off about how much they know about how to 'fix' the system. Unless, of course, they are spoiling for either a fight or to sustain their extremist views that they probably got from listening to their relatives belching and bloviating opinions in front of the television. Oh, and BTW, while we're pointing out grammatical inaccuracies, learn the difference between the use you're and your before you spill another bucket of bile on the floor.
Utilities are becoming more aggressive about collecting money from delinquent customers, leading to a surge in service shutdowns just as economic woes are pushing up the number of households falling behind on bills.
More Utility Bills Go Unpaid - WSJ.com
xyz--no, I do not miss the days of ophthalmologists raping the system for ridiculous reimbursements for removing cataracts. No one should be allowed to do that, whether bankers or docs.
The point is that it is a physically, emotionally and financially grueling endeavor to become a physician. It seems to me that docs should be compensated accordingly.
How much do you think a general surgeon should make per year? What about a family doc?
Rather short term outlook: I'm looking for a test of the high volume low bar from last Tuesday, SPX 922.26, INDU 8800.61, NDX 1272.19. If volume comes in, we've got downside action; otherwise it's consolidation. NDX appears the weakest of the 3. Markets can go higher before they test that low, but they'll need more volume as well or they'll be right back down.
Eliminate astronomical medical malpractice insurance rates by:
1) dealing with doctors who are repeatedly or recklessly negligent through loss of license and criminal penalties, rather than through the tort system; and
2) providing health care, home care, and occupational support for all of our disabled, not just for those who are lucky enough to be injured by someone with a deep pocket.
Never heard it before. Looked it up--like it.
Whatev
So, surfing teh intertubes means you can haz unnerstanding...
Somebody open a window.
"Commerzbank has become Germany's first commercial bank to turn to the government for capital, taking 8.2 billion euros ($10.5 billion) from Berlin on Monday to prop up its flagging finances."
God, I hope that means the government stops begging banks to take money! It's soooo...unseemly.
Has there been any guidance from Treasury on the scope and scale of the assistance they intend to deliver? Or is this all ad hoc?
No one is asking doctors to live a life of poverty. The question is - what is their skill worth?
A competent neurovascular surgeon certainly deserves a very good lifestyle, but what about a subspeciality like say someone who performs cardiac catheterization/ balloon angioplasty? (not exactly the same skill level as bypass surgery)
We cetainly have too many lawyers and MBAs in the country.
Conjure's Bodyguard writes:
if I stop at a car accident in the middle of nowhere, and even though I have minimal equipment/supplies, I can be sued for malpractice if something goes bad or is unable to be corrected in primitive conditions.
burnside - ad hoc would be an improvement.
Construction graphs today! Yay!
Date \tET \tRelease \tFor \tActual \tBriefing.com \tConsensus \tPrior
Nov 03 \t10:00 \tConstruction Spending \tSep \t\t-0.8% \t-0.8% \t0.0% \t
Nov 03 \t10:00 \tISM Index \tOct \t\t43.0 \t42.0 \t43.5
JR,
Lumping "people like me" into a profit motive cabal is disingenuous, and offensive.
Great article on alt energy yesterday on PBS. Question posed: Why would a bright young student want to be an engineer in the energy field, if he knew he would be laid off 5 years later and working at McDonald's, as there is not enough broad based support to change our energy infrastructure??
Answer: he doesn't. He becomes a civil instead, building the next subdivision.
Same with doc's. No good reason today to do it, as while the service aspects are rewarding, most people don't have that Mother Theresa thing.
Question for you.
How many color TV's do YOU own you selfish uncaring bastard. See, it isn't the totality of your experience, and doesn't make you feel good either.
A competent neurovascular surgeon certainly deserves a very good lifestyle, but what about a subspeciality like say someone who performs cardiac catheterization/ balloon angioplasty
he no more deserves a nice lifestyle anymore than the garbage man.
the garbage man serves more people, make's people way happier.
General surgeon (200-250 k/yr)- I am aware than many work over 60 hours a week.
Family Physician (100 k/yr)- It is a 9 to 5 job, without any real responsibility. You can always pass it on to someone lese if things get hairy.
How much do you think a general surgeon should make per year? What about a family doc?
Whatev | 11.03.08 - 7:50 am | #
xyz:
With all due respect, we could go into healthcare, education, defense or any of a host of subjects related to the domestic economy here.
But in point of fact, there is a global economic crisis in progress, and most of us come here particularly for informed opinion on that specific subject.
Since signal:noise is an ongoing problem, could we put off reforming healthcare delivery until we have an idea whether or not a functioning global economy is a part of out near-term future?
Thanks!
burnside,
I am aware of that. However, the next areas to get hit by this crisis are going to our healthcare reimbursement model and pensions. These hits will have very real and nasty consequences.
But in point of fact, there is a global economic crisis in progress, and most of us come here particularly for informed opinion on that specific subject.
« The year 2008 was a general date by which time everyone will realize the world they thought they were living in was over (or never was). »
(John Titor)
"How many color TV's do YOU own you selfish uncaring bastard."
None - and that does make me a selfish uncaring person, because I am not participating in our national discussion about the latest ads, much less having my behavior influenced by said ads.
But if it helps, I do know a P&G marketing manager who is currently in charge of the media accounts to help convince the roughly under 15 year old set of girls to start shaving their legs - which will lead to some economic activity.
I'm too selfish to let my 11 year old daughter watch the 'programming' which the ads are embedded in - as the reality TV program itself is sponsored, discretely, by P&G.
Call me anti-social. Death to Konsumterror.
Things must be really bad at GS if they would risk the inevitable backlash of paying out bonuses. This is something that you would only do if you knew the company was bankrupt.
Whatev writes:
One thing does seem very clear: stock markets - even assuming only the mildest of recessions - are not yet underpriced. The average peak-to-trough fall following a banking crisis is 55 per cent, in real terms.
I think we have a ways to go.
Agreed. To date, the mkt drop can largely be attributed to the evaporation of capital in the shadow banking system. The recent margin call tested but did not exhaust the depths of level III asset woes.
To those issues, we have now begun to add normal recessionary losses. A lower consumer demand has likely been priced in, but we have yet to assess credit losses that accompany unemployment. Consumers face hefty credit card bills and auto payments for purchases they previously made. In a consumer driven economy, corporate profits will be depressed longer and by more than previously thought.
Insolvent companies being propped up by a soon to be insolvent country. Are we there yet daddy?
Mechanics are not like doctors in several ways. First they are not members of a guild which limits membership. (closing teaching hoppitals,etc.)Also they cannot stifle competition (think: limiting nurse practitioners).
I think it was common knowledge that large IBs and CBs have been insolvent for most of the last 12 months.
This is something that you would only do if you knew the company was bankrupt.
ill dilettante | 11.03.08 - 8:12 am | #
In a consumer driven economy, corporate profits will be depressed longer and by more than previously thought.
I agree, and I don't think people will understand how distressed the consumer is until the Black Friday numbers come in.
Why are you all complaining? Let's just call the TARP an economic stimulus package that distributes cash to the people that need it most - bankers. Or do you want their butlers to starve? Have you no shame?
The gov should pay for med school loans and require all practicing docs to perform xx% of their time at public clinics where they would receive nominal pay.
Funny, no mention of how the small banks are being thrown under the bus by the FDIC. Take a gander at the new premiums the FDIC is charging. They are an "insurance company" after all.
Just one more example of small, frugal saver being ruined to rescue the global banking syndicate. Thomas Jefferson, where are you? We really need you now.
On a more seious note.
Where in Manhattan can one find pitchforks for purchase at a reasonable price?
After the erection, the winner and his council will huddle inside the beltway. Access will be limited. Rumors will seep out, trial balloons will be lifted. Smoke will come forth from a chimney--white or black. Dunno, still looks gray to me. Speculation will fill the 24/7 news cycle. We will all watch and wait.
Numbers, numbers, numbers will spill out of reports and analysis and tables and graphs and charts will populate the air and splatter the paper. And when it's all said and done, there will be much more said than is done.
The resolution of the current situation will evolve into another situation. Then another and another in sedulous drizzle until at last we will have a resolution. Followed fast on the heels of this will come yet more situations, etc.
PeakVT,
That's not to say we won't get a rally. Jus sayin this ain't the bottom.
They should have learned that lesson in the 1930s..
PeakVT writes:
In a consumer driven economy, corporate profits will be depressed longer and by more than previously thought.
Ponyless in NJ writes:
Where in Manhattan can one find pitchforks for purchase at a reasonable price?
Lefty's Liquors, Lubricants & Riot Gear on 110th
what is the outlook for day after tomorrow. whoever will have been elected.will the market turn around. will oil stay where it is,
you know that a lot of people think this mess is to get whoever/whomever elected and things will be normal.
i dont think that,i dont think we are half way though this mess,not even close.
Anonymouse, I already called them. They are fresh out of pitchforks. I blame GS. I bet they purchased all the pitchforks on the island before letting out news of their bonus pool. Clever bastards.
How about making the penalty for malpractice not money, but revocation of Medical licence? There'd be no need for big insurance then, as the doctor would just be unable to work at all.
Saves money, and no more doctor, which is always a plus.
The solution for USA is to cancel the debt and move the seat of gov't from D.C. to Eastern Alaska.
The upper income crust has no comprehension of how badly the average citizen has been hurt. Doctors are focused on profit - not health.
[albrt writes:
There can't be a solvent bank]
I agree. Being solvent in the banking industry is a competitive disadvantage.
Coupla days left to buy insurance against an Obama win. Sell energy & coal short via options...
Get off the doctors. The medical system is hideously broken and you focus on its most visible peons. They really don't get paid that much considering how much money/time they spend on education. At least the doctors sometimes do something useful. Save your wrath for the bankers and the lawyers.
The incentive to work, pay taxes, and ones bills is fading fast. It's a great time to be a bum.
Conjure's Bodyguard writes:
if I stop at a car accident in the middle of nowhere, and even though I have minimal equipment/supplies, I can be sued for malpractice if something goes bad or is unable to be corrected in primitive conditions.
I can be sued for not providing care to the level of my ability, regardless of circumstance.
You know what? I don't stop. I will not stop. I can't. You may die at the side of that road, but I will not risk my ability to "put food on my family".
You think that is an enjoyable feeling?
xyz,
the lense of your opinion is not the whole of reality. While I understand the sentiment, the reality is far different.
Conjure's Bodyguard | 11.03.08 - 7:45 am | #
I may be wrong here, but I thought there existed a "good Samaritan" law to protect anyone providing aid, at least up to a certain level; ie, staining that person(s) until official aid arrived.
staining that person(s) until official aid arrived.
Sorry, I don't carry my scarlet letter kit in my car.
"Coupla days left to buy insurance against an Obama win. Sell energy & coal short via options..."
bearly | Homepage | 11.03.08 - 8:43
Naaaaa. I just ordered another 10k rounds of 5.56. I figure I already have enough 7.62...We have a couple of 3 gun matches coming up
.
Chris
For your collective thought and consideration:
Why Austrian Economics Matters More Than Ever by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.
Why stop at banks? I'd wager most companies are technically insolvent, as well. GAAP allows A LOT of leeway in recognition and having cash flow to pay the near term bills is not the same as having the ability to stay afloat another 18 months with 30% less sales.
Little comment on medicine save to say that my personal experience with doctors (on a personal/friend level) is that they're pissed and/or dis-illusioned.
Based on what I've witnessed and listened to, the "practice" of the doctor has been co-opted by Big Pharma. If doctors wanted to make a case for their pay, they should reduce the percentage of their practice dedicated to writing scripts.
Anyway, that's the case I've made in our conversations. The response I get back is that that is what patients demand and that I don't understand the business of medicine. "Well, I rest my case", say I.
I need a fucking Bail-out, too, by gawd.
I'm on a fixed income, with un-fixed expenses.
Where's MY fucking bail-out?
Anonymous writes:
The incentive to work, pay taxes, and ones bills is fading fast. It's a great time to be a bum.
Anonymous | 11.03.08 - 8:49 am
Project much, cully?
Volker......
Good post on the "saying hi" & "neighborhood resources" yesterday. One of better posts written as the rats in the box get nervous....
EHP - thanks. I'll be talking to the IMF WEO team later today and will dig into their numbers.
For the stocks commenters - equities are a lagging indicator. Keep that in mind.
Volker - there's some wild talk of systemic rescue going on. Like I said to EHP the other day, we should all go back to the drawing board and thoroughly read Present at the Creation by Dean Acheson, where he describes how the current system came into being - it's the closest thing to being at Bretton Woods that I've found. It may be out of print, but there are online copies.
CC
..."Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws."----- Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild, Godfather of Central Banking
I must have missed the item concerning homeowners.
When and where are their bailout windows open?
MLB
like say someone who performs cardiac catheterization/ balloon angioplasty
After watching my wife go through four years or med school, a year of internship, four years of residency and a year of fellowship still get nervous doing it, I'd say it's harder than digging a ditch and probably harder than whatever you do for a living.
My wife's average salary over those 10 years was probably about 25k (and she went to a public med school, so it wasn't too expensive.) For all the time she put in, I'd be surprised if she averaged better than minimum wage. She now works 70% time to spend time with our son and makes about 10% more than I do as Silicon Valley computer programmer.
No way in bloody hell that exhaustion and sacrifice was worth it for the money. If you are in it for the money, become a banker or lawyer. Or, better, a banker/lawyer.
Cheers,
prat
Woody - I think it would be safe to say that you don't have country-club membership fees, yatch maintenance and moorage and crew expenses, personal jet pilot on 24 hour call, private hanger expenses, a fleet of vintage and luxury vehicles to store and maintain, and other necessities too numerous to mention, including multiple homes around the world, fully staffed, of course. So I don't see why you have any reason to bitch.
Gentlemen and any ladies in the group. How about a real-life example of how gold can protect ones purchasing power. Forget its an investment. Forget its not an investment.
My mother, age 92, lives in Southern California, as do I, age 58. She owns gold which I began purchasing for her and my (now deceased) father in the early 1970s. Ill use gallons of regular unleaded gasoline for comparison, since we all need to buy gasoline today and in the future.
Late in 1973, I bought her several US Saint-Gaudens $20 gold pieces in Choice Mint State condition. Cost per coin, $199 basis $159 an ounce London PM fix. She still owns them. Here are the relationships (the gasoline is in Peoples State of Southern California prices, mind you, cheaper elsewhere):
Jan. 1974
Gas $0.53
Gold $159
Gallons of gas per ounce of gold: 250
$20 Saint-Gaudens coin $199
Gallons of gas forgone to purchase one coin: 375
Today, November 3, 2008
Gas $2.59
Comex Paper Gold $726
Gallons of gas per paper ounce: 280
Krugerrand gold ounce (actual dealer buy price) $800
Gallons of gas per Krugerrand: 308
$20 Gold Coin $940 (current buy price, Heritage Galleries, Dallas, Texas, a 400-employee corporation).
Gallons of gas per $20 gold coin: 362
Summary: My mother and father gave up the use of 375 gallons of gasoline in 1973 to purchase a $20 gold coin. Today, the buying power is 362 gallons of gas.
they're doing in for America!
remember, participating in the bailout doesn't mean you're a troubled institution, it means you're a patriot