just can't compete with best buy as 'lowest common demoninator' and just like CompUSA didn't want to go for the high-end semi-pro route. becuase the labour reports look bad because you need high trained enthusiasts as employees.
I would say it's time to scoop up some bargains, but this company's been limping towards death for so long I'm sure the vultures have already picked it clean.
Goldman Sex writes:
Circuit city toast. I'm shocked.
Nostrovia,
Corpse Misean is Dope | Homepage | 11.03.08 - 9:11 am | #
The childrens, the childrens!!!
You do realize, of course, that what this really says is that there is a consumer "desire" for a better retail model - as opposed to the "lowest common denominator".
MailOnline:Goldman Sachs ready to hand out £7bn salary and bonus package... after its £6bn bail-out
Goldman Sachs is on course to pay its top City bankers multimillion-pound bonuses - despite asking the U.S. government for an emergency bail-out.
The struggling Wall Street bank has set aside £7billion for salaries and 2008 year-end bonuses, it emerged yesterday.
Each of the firm's 443 partners is on course to pocket an average Christmas bonus of more than £3million.
The size of the pay pool comfortably dwarfs the £6.1billion lifeline which the U.S. government is throwing to Goldman as part of its £430billion bail-out.
As Washington pours money into the bank, the cash will immediately be channelled to Goldman's already well-heeled employees
Hat tip to Jesse's Americain Cafe'
HomeDepot List:
tar
feathers
pitchforks
nails
woodplanks
rope
Stores closing??!?! That's un-possible! Who "coodadnode?!"
Next you'll tell me that debt is not wealth and that people without jobs can't afford 100" flat-panel TV'!?
Circuit City put the last round through their own head when they fired all of their skilled employees and replaced them with squirrel-brained dolts because they are cheaper. This resulted in the brilliant economic model of charging higher prices than the competition while still offering the same lousy service. Hmm... I guess that didn't work out! Combine that with their awful (at least in Maryland) choices of store locations (cramped malls with lousy access and parking) and you have a "winner" for sure!
And another Thousand Oaks storefront goes dark. We have a potential poster city for the over retailing of America. The free standing building is halfway between the Thousand Oaks auto mall and the Janns Marketplace which has the luck of a Mervyn's, Shoe Pavilion and Linen'n'Things all closing.
CR, let me take a moment to compliment you on your excellent post here. Short, informative, mix of quote and comment with useful links. Bravo.
I haven't darkened Best Buy's doors for ages, but last time I was there, sales turned on financing supplied by GE. With a little math, you can catch my point.
You do realize, of course, that what this really says is that there is a consumer "desire" for a better retail model - as opposed to the "lowest common denominator".
Jus sayin..... granted that now is not the time.
popeye | 11.03.08 - 9:17 am | #
I hope recession (not mentioning eventually Great D) will be changing deeply our flawed fast-crap-consuming model.
I can't wait for this. Let's imagine how many people will have to start finding a sense in their empty lifes, when the shopping prozac won't be longer available. Maybe this will hit harder than job losses or soup lines.
What is interesting is that it says that these stores will be closed by 12/31. So the brilliant mgt keeps the stores open all year with nobody coming into them, then closes them just before Christmas: Brilliant!
As long as I will still have my teevee with premium cable my life will have meaning!!
"I can't wait for this. Let's imagine how many people will have to start findin.."
Why is this board dripping with the pent-up desire to see the misery of other people? Are you really going to enjoy laughing at the starving people while looking at them through the scope on your gold-plated sniper rifle?
I predict Best Buy won't be far behind. Most of what these stores sell can be bought from amazon.com with free shipping an no sales tax for much less. Eventually everyone will figure this out and their business will be based on being easier to return. Not a good long term prospect.
Why is this board dripping with the pent-up desire to see the misery of other people? Are you really going to enjoy laughing at the starving people while looking at them through the scope on your gold-plated sniper rifle?
Ponyless in NJ
Outstanding point! And it's why I'm losing weigh at warp speed. Those morons are gonna wanna pop the fat ones for food.
You know you're in deep shit when stores announce closings at the beginning of the Xmas season. Reminds me of the stores on Broadway that always had going out of business sales.
The Horror! They did not shut Oxnard yet. There is no way I am going to drive to Thousand Oaks every day to see what got marked down. A curse on their house.
Why is this board dripping with the pent-up desire to see the misery of other people? Are you really going to enjoy laughing at the starving people while looking at them through the scope on your gold-plated sniper rifle?
Ponyless in NJ | 11.03.08 - 9:30 am | #
My english shall really be bad if you have read this in my lines.
I was just stating that, for certain people, being without cable teeevee could be worst than lining for a soup.
And I wouldn't equal no shopping to starving in misery.
Volker you have a point about synergy in that post. With the size of WalMarts parking lot they could have a nice efficient sized car dealership right there. Demo models only. Pick your color and options for later delivery.
My imaginary retail strip is 3 miles long and is on both sides of a 4 lane highway.
1/2 the chain resturants go away
3 out of 4 nail polishers
1 or 2 speciality stores i.e. boot stores
1 gas station
1 Hallmark
The borders book store
2 little strip mall lunch places
3 of 6 car dealers
florist
sporting goods store (soccer) for the active over scheduled suburban youth
furniture store
Circuit City
Multiply that out over America and it makes for less traffic on that road. Less taxs collected, more demand for services.
Far fetched? I do not think so. The auto dealers and CC going away are enough to push the marginal in good times business over the edge to slow bleed.
Fascinating. Circuit City is not closing my local store in perennially moribund upstate NY, but seems to be closing a bunch on Long Island.
mal | 11.03.08 - 9:37 am | #
You mean the always dead crossgates commons store? The only place in that strip mall that is doing well appears to be the Wally World Uber Super Center and Grocery store.
w writes:
The Horror! They did not shut Oxnard yet. There is no way I am going to drive to Thousand Oaks every day to see what got marked down. A curse on their house.
Mea culpa. I predicted the Oxnard store would close and the T.O. freestanding would remain open. This has to be a real estate related decision. Ox is in a new strip with likely airtight lease but the freestanding in T.O. is a sweet piece of multiuse property. Pretty too. So pretty you have to look for it and certainly no casual traffic.
One may hope for the traditional retail upswing this year, but those "hope dollars" have been spent. This year, the consumer has unpaid bills and credit limits.... and hopes to keep his/her job just to pay-off existing debt.
In case anyone cares, the CC they're closing in Virginia is less than a mile from another CC on the other side of Tyson's Corner. I was wondering when they'd get rid of it.
You do realize, of course, that what this really says is that there is a consumer "desire" for a better retail model - as opposed to the "lowest common denominator".
I can think of two companies that depart from this model - Costco and Apple stores. We'll see how they do in the recession (and more interestingly) coming out of the recession.
(disclosure - I own stock in both of these companies)
I'm shocked that a bunch of stores in Thousand Oaks are closing. What with the strong TO economy based such strong jobs as Countrywide employees! Oh well, they've still got those Amgen employees.
is CC or linens'n'things or any of these other companies operating outside of the US?? i know linens are here in canada, always in the ugly assortment of beige stores scattered around the parking lot of wal-marts and home depots.
how do they structure? would it be a totally seperate entity of the US company?
i ask because i have long assumed those retail chains just could not survive a real downturn and am very curious to know if the decision to leave a market would be made by someone in the u.s., or in the country of operation.
the golden horseshoe in ontario will have some mighty ugly spaces if these places start pulling out of canada.
Speaking to reporters after the speech, Lacker said that while the U.S. economy was definitely in a recession he believed it would be fairly moderate in size.
"We are in a contraction. Up until the summer it was a fairly mild recession," said Lacker, who will become a voting member of the Fed's interest rate-setting committee next year.
"I think it's definitely a recession at this point. How deep, how steep, and (how) long it's going to be is uncertain. We don't know if it's going to be a garden variety recession or something steeper. I think it's most likely to be of a fairly moderate size," he said.
To date, the mkt drop can largely be attributed to the evaporation of capital in the shadow banking system. The recent margin call tested but did not exhaust the depths of level III asset woes.
To those issues, we have now begun to add normal recessionary losses. A lower consumer demand has likely been priced in, but we have yet to assess credit losses that accompany unemployment. Consumers face hefty credit card bills and auto payments for purchases they previously made. In a consumer driven economy, corporate profits will be depressed longer and by more than previously thought.
That bears repeating. We've entered a deep recession with none of he classic recession inputs or indicators, unemployment, Wright Model B, etc. Only just now Q4 08 have we started to get the usual suspects late to the party. Are they just lagging this time or will we see the results of a new recessionary spiral overlaid the current atypical recession?
Over the long term Macys will survive and prosper.
1 they have a reasonable amount of cash on hand and an untapped 2B line of credit.
2. they are still profitable.
3. many of their biggest competitors are on the ropes. DDS survival is questionable, Gott appears to be on death watch, Bon Ton and Belk are struggling. At the very least this group will close many doors. The more likely scenario is failure of the weaker retailers and massive door closings from others.
M will have a difficult time but should be the winner among this group.
we got 3 mickeyds,2 wendys 2 burgerkings,hardee,tacobell,kfc,9zillion hotel/motels.
do i need to say that we are a watering stop for snowbirds. oh thats just the fast food places.
I must say that there has never been a less deserving and seemingly unappreciative champion then Lewis.....may be Nigel Mansell. he only wins because someone else didn't stop for rain tires.
But this is why they run the race. Sorry for rant. At least McLaren didn't win the constructors title with it's repli-car.
The British press had already made him WC this year before any of the races were run. BTW the man who didn't stop for tires (glock) was pretty fast until the last lap when he mysteriously lost about 18 seconds....makes you wonder if "the call" was given. It gave the brits what they thought they deserved...sort of like home ownership here.
The postponed payments, up to a maximum of 500 euros ($640) a month, will be repaid from January 2011 in installments, Zapatero told a news conference in Madrid today. The measure, which applies to mortgages under 170,000 euros ($218,000), could be used by more than 500,000 people, he said.
M will have a difficult time but should be the winner among this group.
I take issue with that. Large retail store is expensive to operate. Macy's neither has the name nor the cache of a Neiman or a Saks to attract ultra high-end or foreign money. Macy's also payed a premium for the most expensive CRE in America. They will feel the brunt of a downturn.
This is what clinched it for me, and today's as good a day as any for me to take what's coming to me.
I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
Glock held on as long as he could on the drys, but there was just too much rain on the circuit without him hydroplaning off, too much of a gap between him and third to follow on that dry line.
What an absolutely nutty finish, nothing more amazing than watching the penny drop in the Ferrari garage. You could've knocked them over with a feather.
Sebastian writes: I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation.
O.K. Acknowledgment and apology has been tendered. The man took a stand on his market view and defended it admirably - in the face of heavy criticism. I can respect that.
They are just lagging. Unemployment is going to shoot up real soon.
Its just that it seems that usually a collapse of an industry specific bubble causes a rise in unemployment and a general small slowdown from the resulting drop in consumer consumption/demand.
Here you had an industry specific bubble in construction and real estate. When it unwound you had a slight increase in unemployment as expected. However, in this case you also have a sudden major decrease in average household wealth causing an almost immediate and severe drop in consumption. The severe drop in consumption causes unemployment which feeds back into a further drop in consumption. This is going to get ugly.
The Circuit City in Palo Alto (on the list) is RIGHT next to a Best Buy. Not very surprising to close one of these bad boys. But who put it there in the first place?
I think the canary will be holiday sales. If they are worse than a typical recession expect more implosions and quick.
I have already seen a dramatic shift in holiday patterns among people and companies ( people doing secret santa, companies not hiring seasonal staff, malls still shuttering stores while entering the season, ... ).
Anyone who things existing models can predict this spiral is fooling themselves.
Now you know how a lot of us felt in the first half of 2007, predicting housing and financial chaos and being laughed at as it kept not happening. Hard times those were - home prices still sort of flat, financial sector looking very healthy, and doubters laughing at us.
To date, the mkt drop can largely be attributed to the evaporation of capital in the shadow banking system. The recent margin call tested but did not exhaust the depths of level III asset woes.
To those issues, we have now begun to add normal recessionary losses.
Rob Dawg writes: That bears repeating. We've entered a deep recession with none of he classic recession inputs or indicators, unemployment, Wright Model B, etc. Only just now Q4 08 have we started to get the usual suspects late to the party. Are they just lagging this time or will we see the results of a new recessionary spiral overlaid the current atypical recession?
Ponyless, sounds reasonable. I agree with you. The first sign will be the lack of seasonal hiring. CR and I disagree on this. I just cannot see U3 peaking at only 8%. BTW, starting Jan 21st you can have one of my ponies whether I like it or not.
As Jas opines, it's all about crook to dope ratio!
In US, everyone thought they were the crooks, but in the end they all will end up realizing there were only dopes.
This is what clinched it for me, and today's as good a day as any for me to take what's coming to me.
I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
Are they just lagging this time or will we see the results of a new recessionary spiral overlaid the current atypical recession?
Rob Dawg
My take: Thud. The faster information flow has made meant faster decisions. Dont have to wait Q to Q decsions can be made daily.hourly. I expect Q4 to show -6.3% gdp
I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
That's cool. Please don't feel excluded from the conversation 'cause you made a wrong call.
"Why is this board dripping with the pent-up desire to see the misery of other people? "
I can only speak for myself, but it's I who have been miserable the past 6 years struggling to leave within my own means and refusing to play the big credit game . And now I should pity those who've lived far more extravagantly thus driving the planet into global depression?
It isn't a desire to see the misery, it's a desire to get the inevitable behind us already and rebuild from the rubble.
Yes I know the details.....the rain stayed pretty static for the duration of the end. Glock losing that amount of time over one lap is pretty suspect...especially when you consider what was at stake. It's like he didn't even do the first sector. I've long suspected F1 was being managed...even last year. Someone with Glock's skill in the wet (I've seen it personally) shouldn't have lost that amount of time wet or dry. But I also see the need of a british WC so that Bernie can extract his pound from the BRDC in the coming year's.
When Lewis can do something in an inferior car then his praises can be sung......copying Alonso's set ups (last year) and then having McLaren dutifully having a driver policy (something ALWAYS eschewed by them) is just too precious for moi. At least with Ferrari (Schumi/Barr.) you knew it was there.....McLaren deny it but operate with it-which is why Kov. was always fueled heavier than Hamilton.
Sebastian: No one knows where this is going & where it will end. Uncharted territory, indeed. I believe sea change is coming in how we conduct our lives & our business. Old assumptions do not apply.
Brian, CC's been planning this for at least a quarter, the rumor's nearly a month old now.
MS,: In sector 1 Glock was 3 seconds slower, sector 2 he lost 9 seconds because he couldn't generate any aero downforce. He looked like a horse on rollerskates.
"Brian, CC's been planning this for at least a quarter, the rumor's nearly a month old now."
Oh, I know the writing's been on the wall for some time, but my only first-hand experience with closures like this was CompUSA and they did give a little warning to liquidate inventory.
I'm keen on this because I'm in I.T. and a notorious cheapskate, and have no qualms playing the vulture role. One of the stores being closed is only a few miles away, and a bunch of us from the office want to sneak over to see what we can pilfer out the back door
"I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
Sebastian"
OH HELL! The bottom is here!!! BUY BUY BUY BUY!
(sorry, couldn't resist. Stand-up comment by the way. A tiny bit overdue, but stand-up nonetheless)
Hi all,
Just wanted to say how rewarding to hear all your comments, very enlightening for a brit in South Africa. Now this is a place you may not know that much about..GNP is less that the state of Carolina and credit has been very controlled. With half the population on less than USD 5,000 per year, we do have alternative priorities.
Hey, don't feel bad - you just wanted more data until you were sure. Good on you for being up-front about the recession now that it is definitely here.
Now, let's hope we can all get through it and rebuild something better on the other side of it.
I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
It may have started this year, but it wouldn't surprise me a whole lot if the NBER doesn't officially call this recession as starting in Q4 2008 or possibly Q3 2008 - months from now after all the revising has been done. Even the depth of the Q4 2008 contraction may not end up as bad as some think, given the stimulus of a gas price collapse. The longest lasting official recessionary period since WWII has been the 1974-1975 one with five consecutive quarters of contraction. Here's my likely incorrect prediction: It officially started in September '08 and we'll shrink about five quarters in a row like '74-'75, anemic recovery in early 2010.
Holy cow - some Formula 1 fans? I thought I was the only person in the US who watched it! Awesome to see! What an unbelievable finish to a crazy season. I do not know if Glock was ordered to slow down but that seems unlikely to me. Look a few races ago how fast Nick Heidfeld overtook the entire pack when he was on wets and the rest were not. I am not a huge fan of Hamilton but I do not think he is a bad guy. Fun stuff!
Hey Seb - don't worry about making mistakes. We are all here to learn! Let's keep up the analysis and try to understand this crazy time.
Circuit City should have downscaled years ago, but they were saved by a decent economy and hung on. This is just the inevitable, CC is the weakest link in big ticket electronics retail and are going to take the biggest hit.
first?
First to close
Circuit city toast. I'm shocked.
Nostrovia,
inevetabile for CC
just can't compete with best buy as 'lowest common demoninator' and just like CompUSA didn't want to go for the high-end semi-pro route. becuase the labour reports look bad because you need high trained enthusiasts as employees.
Circuit city toast. I'm shocked.
Nostrovia,
Corpse Misean is Dope | Homepage | 11.03.08 - 9:11 am | #
The childrens, the childrens!!!
I would say it's time to scoop up some bargains, but this company's been limping towards death for so long I'm sure the vultures have already picked it clean.
Short Circuit City.
Goldman Sex writes:
Circuit city toast. I'm shocked.
Nostrovia,
Corpse Misean is Dope | Homepage | 11.03.08 - 9:11 am | #
The childrens, the childrens!!!
You do realize, of course, that what this really says is that there is a consumer "desire" for a better retail model - as opposed to the "lowest common denominator".
Jus sayin..... granted that now is not the time.
MailOnline:Goldman Sachs ready to hand out £7bn salary and bonus package... after its £6bn bail-out
Goldman Sachs is on course to pay its top City bankers multimillion-pound bonuses - despite asking the U.S. government for an emergency bail-out.
The struggling Wall Street bank has set aside £7billion for salaries and 2008 year-end bonuses, it emerged yesterday.
Each of the firm's 443 partners is on course to pocket an average Christmas bonus of more than £3million.
The size of the pay pool comfortably dwarfs the £6.1billion lifeline which the U.S. government is throwing to Goldman as part of its £430billion bail-out.
As Washington pours money into the bank, the cash will immediately be channelled to Goldman's already well-heeled employees
Hat tip to Jesse's Americain Cafe'
HomeDepot List:
tar
feathers
pitchforks
nails
woodplanks
rope
Explains homedepot's increase in business
So I surmise that MN must be doing awesomely since there are no closures here?
Ok fine, it's because bestbuy started here and there are few Circuit City stores to close.
Stores closing??!?! That's un-possible! Who "coodadnode?!"
Next you'll tell me that debt is not wealth and that people without jobs can't afford 100" flat-panel TV'!?
Circuit City put the last round through their own head when they fired all of their skilled employees and replaced them with squirrel-brained dolts because they are cheaper. This resulted in the brilliant economic model of charging higher prices than the competition while still offering the same lousy service. Hmm... I guess that didn't work out! Combine that with their awful (at least in Maryland) choices of store locations (cramped malls with lousy access and parking) and you have a "winner" for sure!
Just another victim of the credit eCONomy!
I saw 52" 1080p LCD tv's at a AZ chain for $!600, I guess at circuit city they'll be under $1200 before Thanksgiving.
Between this and Linens n crap, a lot of Christmas shopping will be brought forward.
In addition, what does this leave CC with, 5 stores and a discount outlet?
And another Thousand Oaks storefront goes dark. We have a potential poster city for the over retailing of America. The free standing building is halfway between the Thousand Oaks auto mall and the Janns Marketplace which has the luck of a Mervyn's, Shoe Pavilion and Linen'n'Things all closing.
CR, let me take a moment to compliment you on your excellent post here. Short, informative, mix of quote and comment with useful links. Bravo.
I haven't darkened Best Buy's doors for ages, but last time I was there, sales turned on financing supplied by GE. With a little math, you can catch my point.
You do realize, of course, that what this really says is that there is a consumer "desire" for a better retail model - as opposed to the "lowest common denominator".
Jus sayin..... granted that now is not the time.
popeye | 11.03.08 - 9:17 am | #
I hope recession (not mentioning eventually Great D) will be changing deeply our flawed fast-crap-consuming model.
I can't wait for this. Let's imagine how many people will have to start finding a sense in their empty lifes, when the shopping prozac won't be longer available. Maybe this will hit harder than job losses or soup lines.
I can haz bigskrin now?
What is interesting is that it says that these stores will be closed by 12/31. So the brilliant mgt keeps the stores open all year with nobody coming into them, then closes them just before Christmas: Brilliant!
ZERO
ajc breaking news all 16 circuit city stores closed.
I think the only thing we didn't cover in the last CC thread was traditional department stores. Sears - hurting. JCPenny's - struggling. Others?
WalMart?
Goldman Sex,
As long as I will still have my teevee with premium cable my life will have meaning!!
"I can't wait for this. Let's imagine how many people will have to start findin.."
Why is this board dripping with the pent-up desire to see the misery of other people? Are you really going to enjoy laughing at the starving people while looking at them through the scope on your gold-plated sniper rifle?
PeakVT,
JWN is gonna hurt.
WMT and TGT will struggle but survive. The rest are gonna suk hard on 4th Q.
After Gm merges with Chrysler and Ford, they will seek a bailout from WalMart. Then it will be WalMart Motors.
Then we'll all be walkin to the store for our grits.
I predict Best Buy won't be far behind. Most of what these stores sell can be bought from amazon.com with free shipping an no sales tax for much less. Eventually everyone will figure this out and their business will be based on being easier to return. Not a good long term prospect.
Why is this board dripping with the pent-up desire to see the misery of other people? Are you really going to enjoy laughing at the starving people while looking at them through the scope on your gold-plated sniper rifle?
Ponyless in NJ
Outstanding point! And it's why I'm losing weigh at warp speed. Those morons are gonna wanna pop the fat ones for food.
You know you're in deep shit when stores announce closings at the beginning of the Xmas season. Reminds me of the stores on Broadway that always had going out of business sales.
In the retail sector, look at the financial statements HARD and by that I mean access to cash.
The Horror! They did not shut Oxnard yet. There is no way I am going to drive to Thousand Oaks every day to see what got marked down. A curse on their house.
Why is this board dripping with the pent-up desire to see the misery of other people? Are you really going to enjoy laughing at the starving people while looking at them through the scope on your gold-plated sniper rifle?
Ponyless in NJ | 11.03.08 - 9:30 am | #
My english shall really be bad if you have read this in my lines.
I was just stating that, for certain people, being without cable teeevee could be worst than lining for a soup.
And I wouldn't equal no shopping to starving in misery.
Why is this board dripping with the pent-up desire to see the misery of other people?
Because I don't want to be one of them and thought it might also be nice to have a few fellow survivors.
Volker you have a point about synergy in that post. With the size of WalMarts parking lot they could have a nice efficient sized car dealership right there. Demo models only. Pick your color and options for later delivery.
Fascinating. Circuit City is not closing my local store in perennially moribund upstate NY, but seems to be closing a bunch on Long Island.
You mean now that EZ credit is gone, plasma TV's, Su Zero's and $20,000 sorround sound systems drop in demand?
Damn! This whole economics thing is hard.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
My imaginary retail strip is 3 miles long and is on both sides of a 4 lane highway.
1/2 the chain resturants go away
3 out of 4 nail polishers
1 or 2 speciality stores i.e. boot stores
1 gas station
1 Hallmark
The borders book store
2 little strip mall lunch places
3 of 6 car dealers
florist
sporting goods store (soccer) for the active over scheduled suburban youth
furniture store
Circuit City
Multiply that out over America and it makes for less traffic on that road. Less taxs collected, more demand for services.
Far fetched? I do not think so. The auto dealers and CC going away are enough to push the marginal in good times business over the edge to slow bleed.
It's amazing to me that their stock price jumped on this news. They have been CTD for years now and people still think they have a future.
DDS, BOTN, GOTT - some of these are worth less than a day's payroll at WMT.
Fascinating. Circuit City is not closing my local store in perennially moribund upstate NY, but seems to be closing a bunch on Long Island.
mal | 11.03.08 - 9:37 am | #
You mean the always dead crossgates commons store? The only place in that strip mall that is doing well appears to be the Wally World Uber Super Center and Grocery store.
You mean the always dead crossgates commons store?
No, further west (in the real Upstate)
w writes:
The Horror! They did not shut Oxnard yet. There is no way I am going to drive to Thousand Oaks every day to see what got marked down. A curse on their house.
Mea culpa. I predicted the Oxnard store would close and the T.O. freestanding would remain open. This has to be a real estate related decision. Ox is in a new strip with likely airtight lease but the freestanding in T.O. is a sweet piece of multiuse property. Pretty too. So pretty you have to look for it and certainly no casual traffic.
One may hope for the traditional retail upswing this year, but those "hope dollars" have been spent. This year, the consumer has unpaid bills and credit limits.... and hopes to keep his/her job just to pay-off existing debt.
"pent-up desire..."
I agree. I just cannot imagine the stomach renching misery of losing a 3500 sq ft mcmansion and not being able to afford a new 67 inch 1080p lcd.
Goldman Sex,
It wasn't a comment targeted specifically at you. The way you phrased your comment just set me off...
ORLANDO R-E-P-R-E-S-E-N-T!
I've been wondering when that sh!tty store would close.
In case anyone cares, the CC they're closing in Virginia is less than a mile from another CC on the other side of Tyson's Corner. I was wondering when they'd get rid of it.
Daily Effective Rate on Friday: 0.22
Federal Funds Chart
". . . people will have to start finding a sense in their empty lifes, when the shopping prozac won't be longer available."
Nail on the head, Goldman Sex
You do realize, of course, that what this really says is that there is a consumer "desire" for a better retail model - as opposed to the "lowest common denominator".
I can think of two companies that depart from this model - Costco and Apple stores. We'll see how they do in the recession (and more interestingly) coming out of the recession.
(disclosure - I own stock in both of these companies)
Rob Dawg, don't forget the 100,000 new customers coming to River Park! hahahahahaha.
Circuit City gets delisting notice from NYSE | Crave - CNET
ah poor circuit city.
I'm shocked that a bunch of stores in Thousand Oaks are closing. What with the strong TO economy based such strong jobs as Countrywide employees! Oh well, they've still got those Amgen employees.
Tremendously OT,
The Fed Funds overnight rate was 22 bps! on a target rate of 100 bps...
Federal Funds Data
30 day CP spread public release has not yet occurred this lovely morning...
PeakVT,
hat tip! so what up, is that silly string or what...?
the cost of credit falls when folks are full of past due bills
is CC or linens'n'things or any of these other companies operating outside of the US?? i know linens are here in canada, always in the ugly assortment of beige stores scattered around the parking lot of wal-marts and home depots.
how do they structure? would it be a totally seperate entity of the US company?
i ask because i have long assumed those retail chains just could not survive a real downturn and am very curious to know if the decision to leave a market would be made by someone in the u.s., or in the country of operation.
the golden horseshoe in ontario will have some mighty ugly spaces if these places start pulling out of canada.
w,
Riverpark is flotsam and jetsam during the next El Nino. They built it in a friggin' flood plain.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
Recession, who said anything about a recession?
Fed's Lacker wary on inflation, sees U.S. recovery
Fed's Lacker wary on inflation, sees U.S. recovery
| Reuters
Speaking to reporters after the speech, Lacker said that while the U.S. economy was definitely in a recession he believed it would be fairly moderate in size.
"We are in a contraction. Up until the summer it was a fairly mild recession," said Lacker, who will become a voting member of the Fed's interest rate-setting committee next year.
"I think it's definitely a recession at this point. How deep, how steep, and (how) long it's going to be is uncertain. We don't know if it's going to be a garden variety recession or something steeper. I think it's most likely to be of a fairly moderate size," he said.
I don't know Misean, there were a lot of strawberries planted every winter on that floodplain. But it only takes once.
Eight stores within a 100 miles and not one of them is closing - that seems odd to me.
Corpse Misean is Dope writes:
Riverpark is flotsam and jetsam during the next El Nino. They built it in a friggin' flood plain.
Knurd!
The imminent traffic jams will serve as an effective temporary barrier giving El Rio time to loot the Whole Foods.
Repeat 2 threads past:
To date, the mkt drop can largely be attributed to the evaporation of capital in the shadow banking system. The recent margin call tested but did not exhaust the depths of level III asset woes.
To those issues, we have now begun to add normal recessionary losses. A lower consumer demand has likely been priced in, but we have yet to assess credit losses that accompany unemployment. Consumers face hefty credit card bills and auto payments for purchases they previously made. In a consumer driven economy, corporate profits will be depressed longer and by more than previously thought.
Layoff Tracker:
TechCrunch Layoff Tracker
citizen energyecon - looks like we're approaching the LT event horizon. Economic theories are breaking down as we approach....
That bears repeating. We've entered a deep recession with none of he classic recession inputs or indicators, unemployment, Wright Model B, etc. Only just now Q4 08 have we started to get the usual suspects late to the party. Are they just lagging this time or will we see the results of a new recessionary spiral overlaid the current atypical recession?
Anyone else notice even more McD's going up in their cities?
ISM Manfacturing number down 38.9
Glub, Glub, Glub.........
Over the long term Macys will survive and prosper.
1 they have a reasonable amount of cash on hand and an untapped 2B line of credit.
2. they are still profitable.
3. many of their biggest competitors are on the ropes. DDS survival is questionable, Gott appears to be on death watch, Bon Ton and Belk are struggling. At the very least this group will close many doors. The more likely scenario is failure of the weaker retailers and massive door closings from others.
M will have a difficult time but should be the winner among this group.
sorry for missing caps, spelling, etc.
typing on a phone.
ISM worse than expected, construction spending better:
Date \tET \tRelease \tFor \tActual \tBriefing.com \tConsensus \tPrior \tRevised From
Nov 03 \t10:00 \tConstruction Spending \tSep \t-0.3% \t-0.8% \t-0.8% \t0.3% \t0.0%
Nov 03 \t10:00 \tISM Index \tOct \t38.9 \t43.0 \t42.0 \t43.5
ISM manufacturing new orders index 32.2 in October vs 38.8 in September, lowest since 1991
we got 3 mickeyds,2 wendys 2 burgerkings,hardee,tacobell,kfc,9zillion hotel/motels.
do i need to say that we are a watering stop for snowbirds. oh thats just the fast food places.
i just hope the snow birds come.
Speaking of CRE look a Simon Property Group. Giving up most of last weeks gains...
Tweeter, a high-end audio chain store in the Northeast, is liquidating as well.
Rob Dawg,
Wright Model B?? Is there a C now?
OT: Anyone catch the Brazilian race yesterday??
I must say that there has never been a less deserving and seemingly unappreciative champion then Lewis.....may be Nigel Mansell. he only wins because someone else didn't stop for rain tires.
But this is why they run the race. Sorry for rant. At least McLaren didn't win the constructors title with it's repli-car.
The British press had already made him WC this year before any of the races were run. BTW the man who didn't stop for tires (glock) was pretty fast until the last lap when he mysteriously lost about 18 seconds....makes you wonder if "the call" was given. It gave the brits what they thought they deserved...sort of like home ownership here.
Rant off.
Ciao
MS
Spain Lets Jobless Postpone Half of Mortgage Payments
Spain Lets Jobless Postpone Half of Mortgage Payments (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
The postponed payments, up to a maximum of 500 euros ($640) a month, will be repaid from January 2011 in installments, Zapatero told a news conference in Madrid today. The measure, which applies to mortgages under 170,000 euros ($218,000), could be used by more than 500,000 people, he said.
M will have a difficult time but should be the winner among this group.
I take issue with that. Large retail store is expensive to operate. Macy's neither has the name nor the cache of a Neiman or a Saks to attract ultra high-end or foreign money. Macy's also payed a premium for the most expensive CRE in America. They will feel the brunt of a downturn.
(OT) Re: The ISM report.
This is what clinched it for me, and today's as good a day as any for me to take what's coming to me.
I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
Sebastia
Eight stores within a 100 miles and not one of them is closing - that seems odd to me.
dryfly
All in due time, Dry, all in due time.
Linens n crap wasn't going to close the remainder of their stores at first, either.
Gotta make it to next year so the clowns in charge can get one more year of SS eligibility.
Wow. The manufacturing data is just imploding.
If this isn't the bottom, next year will be devastating.
MS,
Glock held on as long as he could on the drys, but there was just too much rain on the circuit without him hydroplaning off, too much of a gap between him and third to follow on that dry line.
What an absolutely nutty finish, nothing more amazing than watching the penny drop in the Ferrari garage. You could've knocked them over with a feather.
Sebastian writes: I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation.
O.K. Acknowledgment and apology has been tendered. The man took a stand on his market view and defended it admirably - in the face of heavy criticism. I can respect that.
Rob Dawg,
They are just lagging. Unemployment is going to shoot up real soon.
Its just that it seems that usually a collapse of an industry specific bubble causes a rise in unemployment and a general small slowdown from the resulting drop in consumer consumption/demand.
Here you had an industry specific bubble in construction and real estate. When it unwound you had a slight increase in unemployment as expected. However, in this case you also have a sudden major decrease in average household wealth causing an almost immediate and severe drop in consumption. The severe drop in consumption causes unemployment which feeds back into a further drop in consumption. This is going to get ugly.
The Circuit City in Palo Alto (on the list) is RIGHT next to a Best Buy. Not very surprising to close one of these bad boys. But who put it there in the first place?
I think the canary will be holiday sales. If they are worse than a typical recession expect more implosions and quick.
I have already seen a dramatic shift in holiday patterns among people and companies ( people doing secret santa, companies not hiring seasonal staff, malls still shuttering stores while entering the season, ... ).
Anyone who things existing models can predict this spiral is fooling themselves.
Reformed Dope Brontide writes:
I think the canary will be holiday sales. If they are worse than a typical recession expect more implosions and quick.
Everybody here has been excited about watching bank friday. Black Friday will be another event.... a bigger one.
Seb, don't be too hard on yourself.
It is the debt, and it is taking time to wind through the system into the non-financial sectors.
(And many people that will claim to have been "right" in theory jumped too soon in practice! You simply demanded more data, and maybe now we have it.)
Sebastian: an honorable end to that episode.
Now you know how a lot of us felt in the first half of 2007, predicting housing and financial chaos and being laughed at as it kept not happening. Hard times those were - home prices still sort of flat, financial sector looking very healthy, and doubters laughing at us.
Repeating for emphasis:
popeye writes:
To date, the mkt drop can largely be attributed to the evaporation of capital in the shadow banking system. The recent margin call tested but did not exhaust the depths of level III asset woes.
To those issues, we have now begun to add normal recessionary losses.
Rob Dawg writes:
That bears repeating. We've entered a deep recession with none of he classic recession inputs or indicators, unemployment, Wright Model B, etc. Only just now Q4 08 have we started to get the usual suspects late to the party. Are they just lagging this time or will we see the results of a new recessionary spiral overlaid the current atypical recession?
[I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
Sebastian]
Did you ever take me up on the CR tip jar wager? I couldn't ever find a response.
Sebastian, good on ya mate.
Ponyless, sounds reasonable. I agree with you. The first sign will be the lack of seasonal hiring. CR and I disagree on this. I just cannot see U3 peaking at only 8%. BTW, starting Jan 21st you can have one of my ponies whether I like it or not.
Seb,
I'd like to add that without your and a few others opinion, this place would just be a big circle jerk.
No apologies necessary.
Seb,
I was the guy writing about how smart Dick Syron was.
As Jas opines, it's all about crook to dope ratio!
In US, everyone thought they were the crooks, but in the end they all will end up realizing there were only dopes.
Sebastian writes:
(OT) Re: The ISM report.
This is what clinched it for me, and today's as good a day as any for me to take what's coming to me.
I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
Sebastian
Sweet!
**sarcasms on***
Capitulation is near?
Time to buy????
**sarcasms off***
Are they just lagging this time or will we see the results of a new recessionary spiral overlaid the current atypical recession?
Rob Dawg
My take: Thud. The faster information flow has made meant faster decisions. Dont have to wait Q to Q decsions can be made daily.hourly. I expect Q4 to show -6.3% gdp
Capitulation is near?
Time to buy????
Not even close. Was down at UVa for the Uva/Miami game this weekend. Talking to another tailgater.....
"Well, I'm down 35% this year in my 401k, but I have 25 to 30 years to make it up, so I'm keeping it in the market".
Until these people give up, it's not capitulation.
Hey, what does a Dem clean sweep win do to bucky ?
methinks bucky gets spanked...
Sebastian:
I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
That's cool. Please don't feel excluded from the conversation 'cause you made a wrong call.
"Why is this board dripping with the pent-up desire to see the misery of other people? "
I can only speak for myself, but it's I who have been miserable the past 6 years struggling to leave within my own means and refusing to play the big credit game . And now I should pity those who've lived far more extravagantly thus driving the planet into global depression?
It isn't a desire to see the misery, it's a desire to get the inevitable behind us already and rebuild from the rubble.
...struggling to live... oops
Alex-
Yes I know the details.....the rain stayed pretty static for the duration of the end. Glock losing that amount of time over one lap is pretty suspect...especially when you consider what was at stake. It's like he didn't even do the first sector. I've long suspected F1 was being managed...even last year. Someone with Glock's skill in the wet (I've seen it personally) shouldn't have lost that amount of time wet or dry. But I also see the need of a british WC so that Bernie can extract his pound from the BRDC in the coming year's.
When Lewis can do something in an inferior car then his praises can be sung......copying Alonso's set ups (last year) and then having McLaren dutifully having a driver policy (something ALWAYS eschewed by them) is just too precious for moi. At least with Ferrari (Schumi/Barr.) you knew it was there.....McLaren deny it but operate with it-which is why Kov. was always fueled heavier than Hamilton.
Ciao
MS
Anyone else shocked by the immediacy of the closings? Stores closed TODAY!
That smells like payroll problems to me. CompUSA at least gave a couple months heads-up on their closings.
Sebastian: No one knows where this is going & where it will end. Uncharted territory, indeed. I believe sea change is coming in how we conduct our lives & our business. Old assumptions do not apply.
Brian, CC's been planning this for at least a quarter, the rumor's nearly a month old now.
MS,: In sector 1 Glock was 3 seconds slower, sector 2 he lost 9 seconds because he couldn't generate any aero downforce. He looked like a horse on rollerskates.
"Brian, CC's been planning this for at least a quarter, the rumor's nearly a month old now."
Oh, I know the writing's been on the wall for some time, but my only first-hand experience with closures like this was CompUSA and they did give a little warning to liquidate inventory.
I'm keen on this because I'm in I.T. and a notorious cheapskate, and have no qualms playing the vulture role. One of the stores being closed is only a few miles away, and a bunch of us from the office want to sneak over to see what we can pilfer out the back door
"I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
Sebastian"
OH HELL! The bottom is here!!! BUY BUY BUY BUY!
(sorry, couldn't resist. Stand-up comment by the way. A tiny bit overdue, but stand-up nonetheless)
Hi all,
Just wanted to say how rewarding to hear all your comments, very enlightening for a brit in South Africa. Now this is a place you may not know that much about..GNP is less that the state of Carolina and credit has been very controlled. With half the population on less than USD 5,000 per year, we do have alternative priorities.
Thanks for the insights guys/gals
hah! i was in the charlottesville store yesterday.
They charged me $15.99 for a cordless phone battery that was listed for $13.99 on the rack.
good riddance.
Wow, that's a lot of stores and jobs.
Pepsi is sending another billion dollars to China. Maybe they should sneak some melamine and lead into the Chinese formulation. Traitors.
Eric at 10:56
"Well, I'm down 35% this year in my 401k, but I have 25 to 30 years to make it up, so I'm keeping it in the market".
Until these people give up, it's not capitulation.
Precisely. Couldn't agree more !!
uhh Eric at 10:36 .. not 56
Seb:
Hey, don't feel bad - you just wanted more data until you were sure. Good on you for being up-front about the recession now that it is definitely here.
Now, let's hope we can all get through it and rebuild something better on the other side of it.
I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
It may have started this year, but it wouldn't surprise me a whole lot if the NBER doesn't officially call this recession as starting in Q4 2008 or possibly Q3 2008 - months from now after all the revising has been done. Even the depth of the Q4 2008 contraction may not end up as bad as some think, given the stimulus of a gas price collapse. The longest lasting official recessionary period since WWII has been the 1974-1975 one with five consecutive quarters of contraction. Here's my likely incorrect prediction: It officially started in September '08 and we'll shrink about five quarters in a row like '74-'75, anemic recovery in early 2010.
Holy cow - some Formula 1 fans? I thought I was the only person in the US who watched it! Awesome to see! What an unbelievable finish to a crazy season. I do not know if Glock was ordered to slow down but that seems unlikely to me. Look a few races ago how fast Nick Heidfeld overtook the entire pack when he was on wets and the rest were not. I am not a huge fan of Hamilton but I do not think he is a bad guy. Fun stuff!
Hey Seb - don't worry about making mistakes. We are all here to learn! Let's keep up the analysis and try to understand this crazy time.
Circuit City should have downscaled years ago, but they were saved by a decent economy and hung on. This is just the inevitable, CC is the weakest link in big ticket electronics retail and are going to take the biggest hit.
Just got back from CC and their selection and prices on flatscreens were terrible; not worth going in until prices are 30% off.
"Anyone else shocked by the immediacy of the closings? Stores closed TODAY!"
Bet they can't afford to stock them all for Christmas, they'll move the inventory to other stores.
Seb,
A hat tip for manning up! Don't sweat it, though; I daresay there's not a person here who's "never" made a bad call. (LOrd knows, I sure have).
old trader
It's surprising to me that CC is not closing any outlets in Sacramento/Placer/El Dorado County areas of California.
Shocking, really. WTF are they thinking? Unless they already closed them and I missed that news?
Excellent reminder to clear all Gottschalk's and Macy's gift cards immediately.
BTW, who buys electronics at B&M outlets? Online only rules!