Construction Spending in September
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 11/03/2008 - 7:00am (15 comments)
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huh?
Looking at the first graph I wonder how much noise in the the monthly figures. While trends diverge single months seem to mirror each other. Perhaps you could add an average trend of the two numbers as a way of judging bias between them.
(OT) Re: The ISM report.
This is what clinched it for me, and today's as good a day as any for me to take what's coming to me.
I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, no excuses or equivocations and I don't need to wait for NBER confirmation. CR (and many other posters here) were absolutely right and I got it absolutely wrong.
Sebastian
(Apologies for the multiple posts on multiple threads, I simply want to make sure my comeuppance is as well-publicized as my recession-denial. Fair is fair.)
Kudos for admitting you were wrong, Sebastian.
EU Says Europe Economy Probably Already in Recession
EU Says Europe Economy Probably Already in Recession (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
A recession in 2009 seems now unavoidable,'' said Jacques Cailloux, chief euro-area economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London.Today's new GDP forecast of 0.1 percent for 2009 by the European Commission still looks too optimistic to us.'
Sebastian, you're not from philly by chance?
RE:Sebastian | 11.03.08 - 10:22 am
That's the real Sebastian. His posts were always those of a gentleman.
Can we get the first graph normalized to GDP so I can see the bubble above the normal trend line?
YOY change in spending staring to look like an earthquake reading to me. Ironic, really.
Private construction in SoCal is
SSSSLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW......
YouTube - Slow Mo
The second graph is very interesting, look at the area under the curve above 10% for NR, vs. the previous area above 10% for residential, just eyeballing it looks about the same. While NR clearly had some ground to make up after the 01-02 downturn, the big area in boom territory implies the NR downturn could be just as nasty as the Residential downtur
I was dead wrong about there being no recession this year, says Sebastian.
What you need to do is examine why you were so wrong. What could possibly have colored your glasses so rosy?
Sebastian: all you needed to do was to pay attention to Roubini. And here is the reason you should have done so:
In sum, when a very intelligent guy with the best credentials tells you something bad, and time serving dupes of the rosy scenario tell the opposite, always go with the guy who says how bad it will be.
i'd be curious, too, Sebastian--
What kept you optiomistic this long despite the warning signs from various sources? You're certainly not alone; I wonder which data or history kept you thinking we'd avoid recession.