Credit Crisis Indicators: More Progress
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 11:15am (217 comments)
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first! hahaha!
1?
So - are the problems on their way to being resolved - can the powers that be rest now?
Nemo, you've got to quit that job. It's taking up too much valuable time.
Are the markets going to start pricing in the recovery on the horizon - you know, rising like there's no tomorrow - er, scratch that last metaphor!
6th
I can't even look at "indicators" anymore. It's like measuring the volatility in the quantity of bacteria clinking to the hairs on the heads of the fleas in the clothing of the guys that are rearranging the deck chairs.
--
Also, progress in the Scam Market. There is a sucker born...
The system of the Crooks must be held up as long as possible. After all, the govt is there as a backstop.
Jas
How come there's no more "Visitors Online"? It's disappearance has broken the CRVIX, and I can't judge the impact of the credit crisis and housing collapse without the most important indicator of all.
"Most recently, Mr. Alix worked for the Bear Stearns Companies, Inc., where he served as chief risk officer from 2006-2008 and global head of credit risk management from 1996-2006."
Yves thoughts on it:
"We have our own paranoid pet theory as to how this appointment might have come about. Who would know better what was in the dreck pool that the Fed has parked over at BlackRock than the former chief risk officer? If Alix knows a few embarrassing things, might be wise to give him an incentive not to talk them up."
That is what makes Yves and Mish interesting. Adding some insight and what if to the news. Mish also has the market cornered on commenters with tinfoil theories. Great fun after a few beers and enough bad news. I found out last night the Rothschilds are worth 500 trillion and that trillionaire isn't in the dictionary. No corroboration was found when I looked but boy do I know more than I ever wanted to about NWO.
Fed Hires Bear Stearns Risk Chief…To Supervise Bank Soundness « naked capitalism
CR hired me to count visitors online...let's see...467 visitors online.
Anon: did I start that whole line of thinking when I asked if we had any trillionaires walking around on the globe?
What was the reason behind visitors online being gone?
MLM --
Between work and monitoring intrade.com, I have my hands full today. No time for Calculated Risk.
I'll be back eventually...
What was the reason behind visitors online being gone?
Anonymous
Simple, really. I asked for the job and got it.
--
Long-term Treasuries are also doing very well. A more fiscally responsible govt expected? YOU BET. Republicans are looters of the taxpayers money (to give it to the rich).
Anyway, a less bad govt is all that dopes are entitled to. And this truth is as self-evident as any.
Jas
Elvis writes:
What was the reason behind visitors online being gone?
Anonymous
Simple, really. I asked for the job and got it.
Fair enough, but saying "The ELVIS is in cardiac arrest" is not nearly as effective as "the CRVIX is dilating".
Simple, really. I asked for the job and got it.
Elvis | 11.04.08 - 2:42 pm | #
Well good for you but what about when you are sleeping? At 3am when I can't sleep and check in will you be here to update for me?
CSC: Why chest protector? Are you going to a rally? Will you be dressed in biohazard jumpsuit and equipped with metal detector just to mess with 'em?
Elvis has left the comment section. Count now -1
"Once a week I will include the Fed balance sheet assets. If this starts to decline that would be a positive sign."
Not gonna happen anytime soon.
It's pretty worthless as an indicator since they can report whatever they want WHENEVER they want. The biggest tell is that they have only realized a very small loss on it's BSC tally...when we all know it's much larger given the other deals that have gone off at lower prices at the back half of this year. Any of it's inputs are based on flawed models.
When there is some form of transparency with it's reporting then I'd be inclined to believe it. There is not so I don't.....neither should you.
Ciao
MS
This rally has legs?
Will it go to DOW 12000?
Rally past Jan 09? Rally until the shorts begin to doubt themselves?
Rally until all the technical indicators turn green, so even technical/momentum folks jump in?
Rally as the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
I think this rally has legs.
The yield on 3 month treasuries rose slightly to 0.47% from 0.44%. (unchanged)
A daily 7% on a 90 day is not significant?
"Rally as the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
It also works the other way too...
Not just on "rally's" with pitiful volume.
Ciao
MS
It's almost 3:00 PM in New York, so where is the Plunge Promotion Team?
Or does the new team only stop by for the last 15 minutes these days?
So, will the PPT take the rest of the day off to go stand in line to vote, or should we get our popcorn ready for yet another absurd 3 PM blast off?
hc writes:
I think this rally has legs.
Comments like this make me believe we're nowhere near the bottom yet.
visitors online 411
Dollar down, commodities up 5%, stocks up 3%, ten year rallying.
Just makes no sense to me. I think the low volume explains it.
Or does the new team only stop by for the last 15 minutes these days?
They shifted to piece-work rates from hourly a few weeks ago.
I think this rally has legs.
Yeah. One leg with an open compound fracture, and the other with a busted kneecap. Go rally monkey, go.
hc writes:
This rally has legs?
The rally will last for more than a few hours only after there are repeated rallies in the face of bad news. Bad news comes with the employment reports. If this rally survives the day, check back on Friday.
Angry Saver writes:
Just makes no sense to me. I think the low volume explains it.
Everyone thinks the bottom is behind us, and no one wants to be late to the dance.
People have an amazing ability to believe what they want to believe, and everyone wants to think that tomorrow will be better than yesterday (present company excepted, of course).
Not sure how things are 'better' given the government's massive (and artifical) intervention, as that is totally skewing the results.. Now, if the FED stopped their support for a few weeks and things stuck.. then I'd agree..
Oh man! When the DOW hits 30K I am going to be so rich! I am putting all my money into the stock market! Don't miss the rally! It can't ever go down! Don't miss it! I am also buying a huge SUV cause of how rich I will be. Might as well get a huge mortgage too. So much money coming to me from this stock market! Rally! Rally for America!
Thus spoke Lord Mahavir:
"A man is seated on top of a tree in the midst of a burning forest. He sees all living beings perish. But he doesn't realize that the same fate is soon to overtake him also. That man is fool."
(from the sacred books of Jainism)
Ponyless in NJ writes:
Rally for America!
If you short the market, the terrorists win.
PapaSloth,
If you don't buy an SUV (US made) you are a terrorist.
CSC I like these, cheap and effective. As a bonus they will not be picked up by a metal detector at a checkpoint.
DBA-968 - Israeli Covert Knives Set of Two Desert Tan Resin CIA Dagger Style One 7" One 8"
Iwasawa writes:
Not sure how things are 'better' given the government's massive (and artifical) intervention, as that is totally skewing the results.. Now, if the FED stopped their support for a few weeks and things stuck.. then I'd agree..
..... with due respect, I think you're missing the point. The rally theory turns on some sense that the interventions will supersede the effects of shadow bank deleveraging and the recession. The idea is that "given" the fed boost, it will take off. Either you subscribe to that notion or you don't, but you don't get to test the take off by withdrawing the boost.
The Fed is buying higher quality commercial paper (CP) and this is pushing down the yield on this paper (0.97% on Friday!) - and increasing the spread between AA and A2/P2 CP. So this indicator is a little misleading right now.
Yes, credit is necessarily something voluntary, not forced.
If we are having to use an involuntary mechanism like taxation to ease credit conditions then credit conditions aren't really easing.
Capital flows are simply being forcibly redirected to create the illusion of easing credit.
The basis of credit is fundamentally trust and cooperation, not force.
This is why credit is so inherently fragile and why it must be used with such caution.
When improperly used, trust and cooperation can vanish for years and years...
Ponyless in NJ writes:
If you don't buy an SUV (US made) you are a terrorist.
With gas under $3.00/gallon, I'd be a fool NOT to buy an SUV! Plus, 0% financing, that's like putting money in the bank.
I agree with Iwasawa. Not sure if these indicators mean anything like they used to when the Fed and the central banks are overtly manipulating rates. Soon, they will travel out the curve as difficult-to-sterilize monetization begins.
This was interesting before Fed intervention, not now.
Great... this is progress. But for whom? Yes, it might be a sign of some freed up interbank lending, but in case you all missed it, all that means is that the bailout becomes more focused on bailing out bankers, and their profits and their bonuses. This does nothing to free up lending to consumers, which is still steadily being shut down. We are watching the true bailout come into play, and while it will produce a short term rally, it will come at a much deeper bottom as it strangles the real economy for the US, which in turn helps drag the rest of the globe into recession. Enjoy your gains for now, but dont stay long too long.
popeye - I agree with you - was just speaking semi-hypothetically..
(and yes, whining a bit)
"A man is seated on top of a tree in the midst of a burning forest....is a fool."
Harsh, very harsh.
Any dude with a tree up his ass, is a kindling of mine.
11 visitors online.
Gambler's prayer: Please God, let me break even. I need the money.
"A man is seated on top of a tree in the midst of a burning forest....is a fool."
Not necessarily. Depends on the relative height of the tree and sturdiness of the trunk. Most big trees can withstand a massive fire. Scrub disappears.
But ask yourself, what is the probability of one big tree sitting in a massive forest of tiny ones? Ya...you're not as high up as you think you are.
I suspect that this "rally" will last only as long as it takes to influence a few votes at the polls.
To suppose that the Republican Party would not use this obvious tactic for blunting the Dem's gains is naive.
On that basis, my bet is that equity markets start dropping again tomorrow.
Geoff writes:
Not necessarily. Depends on the relative height of the tree and sturdiness of the trunk. Most big trees can withstand a massive fire. Scrub disappears.
"I don't have to be faster than the lion, I only have to be faster than you."
My son has a lemonade stand and we came up with a metric that we track that is derived by calculating the spread between the price that my son estimates a hypothetical lemondade stand could sell a cup of lemonade for today (based on weather and event driven traffic affecting demand, ect...) and the price for a single lemon at the corner market.
We had been tracking this metric (which we call the LED spread) for a while and it has been a good barometer for measuring the overall sentiment of the lemonade market.
However....recently he has been going to the market and they have been out of lemons as everybody now wants them due to a flight to tasty. This unwillingness or the corner market to meet demand for lemons has made it generally more expensive to get this ingredient.
However, I have been stockpiling lemons for some time to deal with just such a crisis as this and have agreed to provide him with an unlimited lemon liquidity backstop until the corner market "normalizes". So I am currently supplying him with artifically low cost lemons which of course manipulates the LED spread.
My son, being the clever devil that he is also realizes that he can manipulate the other side of the LED spread by essentially changing his estimate of what he can sell the lemonade for and some days he makes it up out of thin air just for fun.
In light of all this now I am teaching him not to rely on measures such as the LED spread as the market has been completely distorted and it is basically meaningless at this point. I am telling him to focus on his cash flow and balance sheet in these tough times.
Mr. T. | 11.04.08 - 3:12 pm
Oh my God.
Mr. T. writes:
My son has a lemonade stand
I'll gladly pay you next Tuesday for a lemonade today. {apology to MS}
@ CSC
Sorry dude....I just think these credit market indicators are ridiculous right now.
Weird markets today.
Something ain't right.
Elvis - could we have a count update now?
In InSolviet Merica, the credit market indicators are YOU!
Mr. T. | 11.04.08 - 3:12 pm | #
Fantastic. This is comment is CR gold.
My grammar check is CR fail.
"Something ain't right."
I disagree with this comment only on the basis that it is stated in the singular.
What do you do to a perfectly heavenly lady?
Gott tirthankar
(oh that was a clunker)
Those numbers have nothing to do with the stock market. It is the stock market that determines those fundamentals, not the other way around. Get that facts deep in your head.
Whether you believe it or not. It does not matter. You will miss gains, and pay with your money in forms of losses.
The guy who nailed the bottoms of October 10, 16, and 24, has just issued a short call this afternoon.
I went short nasdaq 100 after receiving his call. It feels good, as the market indeed has moved down. I entered at 1374, and NDX is now at 1358!
For your wealth folks, check the blogger below.
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: stock price prediction (tomorrow's stock price): QQQQ, NDX, NQ, SPY, DIA trading
What ? Who forgot to invite the R2K to the party ?
jim writes:
I went short nasdaq 100 after receiving his call. It feels good, as the market indeed has moved down. I entered at 1374, and NDX is now at 1358!
Glad someone is making money. I'm long SKF and DXD and losing my ass.
"flight to tasty"
Keeper!
Teach him about smaller cups, diluting with ice, and frozen lemon concentrate, too. He must keep up with hyperstagflation somehow.
Uncle Billy: It's probably a good idea to have some extra protection when you're slugging it out on the streets. I explained earlier that I'm mostly concerned with stabbing. This is going to be an open-air steel cage match. (Does that even make sense?) Come prepared dude. Do you even know how to make a torch with rags, alcohol, and water?
"....something ain't right"
CR understatement of the year
When I was a youngun I always looked forward to New Year's Day. I pictured a golden, spring, sunshine day with no more worries for Mom & Dad.
Election Day is like my New Year's Eve expectations. Everybody expects miracles the next day.
When they wake up the next day, they see the same old exhaust blackened snowbanks littered with garbage and discarded, sick drunks.
Mr. T, LOL.
I feel like I am in the Twilight Zone listening to people talk about declining rates as if they were actually market rates anymore. Commercial paper is my personal favorite.
Eventually the stockpile of lemons will diminish.
visitors online 600
If that was the PPT's 3PM surprise, they need a fresh batch of viagra. Or maybe they're saving the fun for 3:55. 30 pointer at the buzzer?
jim writes:
Those numbers have nothing to do with the stock market. It is the stock market that determines those fundamentals, not the other way around. Get that facts deep in your head.
Whether you believe it or not. It does not matter. You will miss gains, and pay with your money in forms of losses.
The guy who nailed the bottoms of October 10, 16, and 24, has just issued a short call this afternoon.
I went short nasdaq 100 after receiving his call. It feels good, as the market indeed has moved down. I entered at 1374, and NDX is now at 1358!
For your wealth folks, check the blogger below.
Sorry Jim,
With due respect, the point of reading CR is learning to think for yourself. You can bet on someone else's guess if you like. I'll make my own calls.
@ oneworldcurrency yogi
LOL...I think he's going to have to wait until he gets to Harvard to learn how it's really done.
Dell ask workers to consider taking unpaid vacations...that's after nearly 9,000 job cuts
Mr. T. - Do you think your son might be interested in buying some Lemon-backed securities?
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
Uncle Billy: It's probably a good idea to have some extra protection when you're slugging it out on the streets. I explained earlier that I'm mostly concerned with stabbing.
Calm down CSC, would ya. You sound like Hudson from Aliens, "game over man."
Just hold tight, keep the pro low, and dump on anyone that busts through the door.
I've sliced and sold so many LBS, that I don't have any idea who owns my lemons anymore.
@ CA exile
Even at four he knows enough to pass on that deal.
This sucka's goin' down.
15 minutes until the markets open. Futures still positive.
When life doesn't even give you lemons, run!
bearly,
With employment guess {ADP} tomorrow, and employment "reality" on Friday, I tend to agree.
How about a hoopajoop (pat. pending) with every lemonade. You know, for kids.
R2K and the Treasury buying... things that make me go, "hmmmmmm..."
I like the ETF LMN. Double shorts the price of lemons.
.3 visitors online
Now that financial crisis is cured...when will taxpayers get their 2 Trillion in bailout money back?
R2K is justified in being afraid - it's the major indexes that were breathing a little too heavily when they passed by CSC's place.
Mr. T:
Suh-weet with the lemonade. Now that is understanding this foolishness.
I just had my teen with me as we placed some TWM orders and talked market rally.
Voted McC if for no other reason that I don't want the Dem party to think that it has an absolute mandate for everything that they think that they want to do.
Almost wrote in Teddy Roosevelt however.
we be jammi
If we get a 1/2 African President can we also expect a 1/2 African currency and a similar move in living standards ?
Zimbabwe comes to mind.
Factory orders fell 2.5% in the month of September, compared to a 4.3% drop in August. This was way below expectations.
This report is just one of many expected to shape the markets this coming week. For the complete list of economic data, along with their full reports and graphical data, visit Contrarian Musings - The Alhambra Investments Blog
Mr. T:
Maybe your son can sell a child version of our favorite currency and call it the Hula-hoopajoop. Play with it and when you're done, buy lemons.
bearly,
An American is an American is an American .... we are all fellow citizens now - grow up.
jim writes:
The guy who nailed the bottoms of October 10, 16, and 24, has just issued a short call this afternoon.
Jim you might want to look for a man to man blog for this kind of talk
"COMEX Lemon Market Nears Default
The COMEX Lemon Market was in turmoil Tuesday, as a surprising number of lemon futures holders demanded delivery. Investors appeared to have realized that they had been investing in the wrong yellow commodity. 'Plus they're tangy!' commented one trader. The worry now is of further disruptions as traders swap oil futures for Crisco, natural gas futures for Beano, and U.S. Treasuries for Charmin."
@ homedad43
Took my son to vote with me as well...wrote in my choice for Pres. won't tell you who but initials are R.P.
Mr. T. writes:
@ homedad43
Took my son to vote with me as well...wrote in my choice for Pres. won't tell you who but initials are R.P.
I wrote in Ron Pearlman too
Mr. T.
Brilliant!
If everything else fails, you can always ask Hank for lemon aid.
Ministry of Truth | Homepage | 11.04.08 - 3:46 pm | #
Jim you might want to look for a man to man blog for this kind of talk
The point being....
Jus kidding, good call.
I wrote RiP. We were voting on the Constitution, right?
bearly writes:
If we get a 1/2 African President can we also expect a 1/2 African currency and a similar move in living standards?
For Comrade Bearly, some animals are more equal than others.
won't tell you who but initials are R.P.
Was his middle initial "I"?
I think this rally has legs.
hc
Mish says it's a wolf wave five of three up, whatever the heck that means. All I know is I put a lot of stock in Elliot Wave Theory. I couldn't pick it out of a police line-up, but I listen to those who speak with authority on the subject.
All in all, it's a freaking dice game and when the table goes cold the down draft will make the recent 'meltdown' look like a little bitty camp fire.
The Libor 3 month has been on the decline since 10/10, and things are looking good for interbank lending to recommence. Interbank lending. Hmmmm. Lending what? Money?? What money??? Lending?????!! Lending to other banks who may have millions, nay billions, of dollars of worthless "assets" on their books and who are just hoping and praying to get a little loan, pay off some of the bad paper, and then call it a day?!? Lending to other banks who are then going to turn and around and lend it TO WHOM!!!!?!?!? For WHAT!!?!?!? Houses?!?!?!?!?!?!!! Cars?!?!?!?!?!!!! New business ventures!?!?!?!? Christ.
R.P.?
This must be Robert Peston
dan: We're camping at O'Neil Park. I recommend a chest protector. If you're serious, we'll be using our proceeds to buy a farm in the Ozarks.
Think about it.
Has anyone caught if Setser has parsed the TIC data yet? Always a good read on that...
It's four o'clock. Do you know where your bottom is?
Volker the Viking writes:
All in all, it's a freaking dice game and when the table goes cold the down draft will make the recent 'meltdown' look like a little bitty camp fire.
Theme music:
YouTube - Candle In The Wind: A Princess Diana Tribute
This Mish fellow... I heard him on kfi640 late last night. How come they put him on at the same time they usually put on the alien abduction folks?
Uncle Billy Hearts Naomi Klein writes:
This Mish fellow... I heard him on kfi640 late last night. How come they put him on at the same time they usually put on the alien abduction folks?
Absolute Truth is a fringe subject.
It's four o'clock. Do you know where your bottom is?
Behind you! (Buy equities!)
I have to admit finding myself in a somewhat dreamy state right now. I live and work in a college town, and the horns are honking and the signs are waving, OBAMA OBAMA!! is being chanted in the streets...and I sit on the bench, and drink my java and smoke my pipe, and wonder just how clueless EVERYONE is to what is really going down vis-a-vis our global financial bonfire. As if Obama, or McCain, has ANY clue as to what really needs to happen for the world to come out of this calamity somewhat intact: that the only way to solve the problem is TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM! Not to obfuscate and avoid and try to side-step the problem. Not to spend trillions of dollars to try and "pay-off" the system. It seems so obvious, and yet no one dare say it...certainly no one who needs your vote. so I'll say it: UNTIL ALL OF THE BANKS ET AL COME CLEAN ON WHAT IS ON THEIR BOOKS, THE CRISIS WILL ONLY GROW MORE ACUT
This Mish fellow... I heard him on kfi640 late last night. How come they put him on at the same time they usually put on the alien abduction folks?
Uncle Billy Hearts Naomi Klein
Because the stuff he talks about is real spooky.
UNTIL ALL OF THE BANKS ET AL COME CLEAN ON WHAT IS ON THEIR BOOKS, THE CRISIS WILL ONLY GROW MORE ACUT
dan
Dr. Dan, while you're toking on your pipe, perhaps you could review your freshman English text.
ah hahaha check out that Jam job. Please tell me we don't have the most manipulated, corrupt markets in the world. Lol!
WHY the effective f.funds rate is constantly 0.5% or more below the target rate ??
GH,
Remember the hoot about how there was going to be an investigation into prices being jammed up at the end of the day (SEC? not sure)...
Seems like they are on the job!
A little thread music for those who love Lady Prosperity:
YouTube -
Side note: If you haven't seen or heard this entire concert, you suck. Suck sucker.
Thread byplay on that earlier today speculated it might be quantitative easing by the Fed...
Absolute Truth is a fringe subject.
I know Mish quite well. I think you go a little far.
Check your history, folk. Erection day has always been rally day.
I think the investigation was about why stocks kept falling into the close during the last hour.
Now that they're rising, its all good, right?
I don't want to be the first to ask for a head count.
I know Mish quite well. I think you go a little far.
RE | Homepage | 11.04.08 - 4:05 pm | #
I was talking about alien abductions.
One
Voted Barr, and straight ticket third party. Had to split between the Green and Constitution Party to do it. Neither party is willing to be serious about the budget, both parties jumped out of their britches to bail out the banksters. Presented with a full third party ballot, I will not be blackmailed into finding subtle gradations of abject failure.
No to some stupid debt offering to drag the state further into the crapper.
Now let's see who wins and how the world and the markets take the news.
Mish always sounds like he's in the market for a chest protector and some bear repellant. He even makes me a little jumpy on some interviews.
Volker the Viking writes:
Check your history, folk. Erection day has always been rally day.
Volker the Viking | 11.04.08 - 4:06 pm | #
Why did I just get a mental image of a woody? Must be my subconscious at play.
Serious question. Granted that it is harder to get information out of the market's moves than from a magic 8-ball, but why the move in energy? Up hard, strong (but not crazy) volume. It is hard to imagine an Obama admnistration being particularly kind to energy. More anticipated dollar weakness?
Why did I just get a mental image of a woody? Must be my subconscious at play.
Gavshire Hathaway
Been a while for you too, huh?
I sit on the bench, and drink my java and smoke my pipe, and wonder just how clueless EVERYONE is to what is really going down vis-a-vis our global financial bonfire
Ditto. I sit in Starbucks and drink my fizzy and eat my banana cake and wonder... well, "contemplate with resignation" that so many folks think casting a vote will solve everything.
I'm not seeing how, myself.
But it's "not good" to say it out loud. So I keep my mouth shut.
Ditto. I sit in Starbucks and drink my fizzy and eat my banana cake and wonder...
Dude...I'm going to vote NO on Prop 8 just so you guys can be left alone. This one's for you, B!
dan writes: UNTIL ALL OF THE BANKS ET AL COME CLEAN ON WHAT IS ON THEIR BOOKS, THE CRISIS WILL ONLY GROW MORE ACUTE
Où est la justice? Il n'y a plus maintenant que la justice y était quand nous avons vécu dans des grottes. Il est seulement nuance.
@ Volker the Viking
"Erection day has always been rally day"
Your either Chinese, a bad typer, or seriously funny....love it!
Found it - though this begs the question why closing prices should be different than any other price
Stock market cops investigate traders in wild price swings
"U.S. regulators are investigating whether investors manipulated end-of-day stock prices to avoid being forced by their brokers to sell holdings" at unfavorable prices, writes Edgar Ortega and his colleague Jeff Kearns of Bloomberg News in this story, whose accuracy was confirmed to me by staff at the Financial Institutions Regulatory Authority (FInRA) FINRA - Home Page which monitors and disciplines traders on the New York and Nasdaq exchanges.
The Dow-Jones Industrial Average has swung as much as 100 points in the last minute of trading earlier this month, Ortega noted. Those wild swings "suggest investment firms, faced with client redemptions and plunging markets, may be gaming the closing-auction system," in which the markets help "smooth" price changes by supervising sales near the end of the trading day.
The Dow 30 stocks "swung 0.6 percent on average at the close the last two weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's almost eight times greater than the average three months ago."
How does an investor game that system? "Traders could send small buy orders leading up to the close to prop up the price, only to place a larger sell order in the final trade...
What's at stake? "Closing prices are often used as benchmarks to value the collateral a client has set aside to guarantee a loan to invest in stock. They also influence the settlement of options and futures contracts, executive pay and the price of takeovers. Funds that track benchmark stock indexes typically rely on the exchange's closing auctions to complete trades."
If markets are declining, people are going to try to mark up the close,'' Thomas Gira, executive vice president for market regulation at the Financial Institutions Regulatory Authority in Washington, which includes the New York and Nasdaq regulators, told Bloomberg. <b>We want to make sure that closing prices are not artificial prices.''
Stock market cops investigate traders in wild price swings | PhillyDeals | 10/20/2008
"If we are having to use an involuntary mechanism like taxation to ease credit conditions then credit conditions aren't really easing."
ac, that is a particularly insightful comment.
Send lawyers, guns, and money writes:
Serious question. Granted that it is harder to get information out of the market's moves than from a magic 8-ball, but why the move in energy? Up hard, strong (but not crazy) volume. It is hard to imagine an Obama admnistration being particularly kind to energy. More anticipated dollar weakness?
Yes, dollar down==oil up==energy up. Plus, a rising tide lifts (most)
boats.
It still amazes me how much foresight Richard Ziman had a few years ago when he dumped his office buildings on these guys:
SoCal office owner skips payment on $1.5 billion loan - Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register
Went on a walk about today, stopped at my local polling place. Wifey and I voted early. Asked why there were no lines....
Was told 150 of 938 voted early, including absentee. They were on number 421 while I was chatting. They seemed to think that my precinct would reach 75 or 80 percent when it was over. I observed, "Hmmm, hasn't been that high since the Duke-Edwards race." The three matrons got real quiet and looked down.
I always did know the short way to kill a conversation.
where's lefty? the visitor count is missing again, I think he's supposed to be in charge of these things around here.
Casting a vote might not solve anything, but it makes folks at least feel like their doing SOMEthing. We all know deep down how powerless we are.
Going to be a real interesting evening...
(they're, not their)
@ PapaSloth
Thx. Just saw something about Saudi supply cuts. Still, strange day.
What time does the news start agitating the herd? Dinner? (Or supper...wherever you are.) Couple hours now?
Autonomy Capital Halts Withdrawals From $1.2 Billion Hedge Fund
By Saijel Kishan
Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Autonomy Capital Research LLP, a $1.7 billion hedge-fund firm run by former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. trader Robert Gibbins, halted withdrawals from its flagship fund after losses this year.
The $1.2 billion Autonomy Capital Fund slumped about 40 percent this year through October, according to a Nov. 3 letter sent to investors. The London-based firm said margin and financing rates are rising, making asset sales in falling markets undesirable.
Autonomy Capital Halts Withdrawals From $1.2 Billion Hedge Fund - Bloomberg.com
S&P 1100 by tomorrow afternoon.
Postwar Japan, the Japanese man who owned the dry cleaning contract loved General MacArthur. Talk was rampant about the possibility of Mac running for president. In a burst of enthusiasm in support of the notion, he blazoned a large billboard on the side of his dry cleaning plant (situated on the road MacArthur used daily when driving to his office) that read: "Japanese People all Pray for General MacArthur's Erection". Mac thought it best that the signage not be disturbed.
7 EST are the first poll closes. I would expect them to have the "storyline" going by 8 and be drawing the "obvious" conclusion by 9 EST.
Send lawyers, guns, and money writes:
Thx. Just saw something about Saudi supply cuts. Still, strange day.
The cuts were last week's news and were met with a big "blah" by the market. The consensus seems to be that 1). demand destruction due to the recession trumps the supply cuts, and 2). Russia can't afford to cut their production without putting the final nail in their economic coffin.
I think today's rally is primarily due to dollar weakness and general election bullishness.
"Presented with a full third party ballot, I will not be blackmailed into finding subtle gradations of abject failure."
This has been a very popular theme today from some die-hared Republicans that I associate with.
It has been my philosophy for many years now, but it has certainly caught on, from my perspective.
I would have made and exception to write in R. Paul, but he sent me a mail asking me to vote for my traitorous rep who voted for the bailout, so I was disinclined to support someone who did not see that vote as a litmus test for "small government."
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
"What time does the news start agitating the herd?"
You can probably get breathless reporting on CNN any time you want. Would be surprised if they are not projecting some states by 7PM Eastern.
But you can see the likely outcome over on Karl Rove's site and skip hours of agitation watching the newsreaders speculate.
safe_as_apartments writes:
S&P 1100 by tomorrow afternoon.
8:15 AM ADP report
10:00 AM ISM Services
Sorry, I'm bettin agin ya.
From Debka.com
"Lebanese sources and eye witnesses report Syrian tanks, artillery and commando units have taken up battle positions in four villages around Hasbaya opposite Mt. Hermon and northern Israel."
"A Hizballah mission, which arrived in Moscow Tuesday, Oct. 28, was taken around Russian state of the art anti-tank missile factories, including KBP in the town of Tula southwest of Moscow, DEBKAfiles exclusive military sources report. The Lebanese visitors were treated to a live fire demonstration of various types of missile. They then ordered 3,000 missiles of different types and returned home Saturday, Nov. 1.
Tehran is footing the bill."
DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security
Apologies in advance. Happy fucking holidays.
Everyone should have sex before dinner. This could be 'it.' It's not unethical to bring this up if there's something you've always wanted to try. You might never have sex again.
...I'm going to vote NO on Prop 8 just so you guys can be left alone. This one's for you, B!
Sorry, CSC, but I'm straight.
Well, no, not straight.
Kinked but not gay.
Okay, the girlfriend has some pretty wild ideas but she's backed off a bit on some.
What's interesting is how much age discrimination I get in job interviews now. People wouldn't dare to be so blatant about race or sexual preference but age... well, that's okay.
What I do now is just say upfront on the first phone interview that I'm fifty and that saves me a lot of pointless interviews. However, I'll occasionally get the do-gooder 35-year-old who believes they're not biased until...
well, until they come face-to-face with wrinkles and graying temples.
CSC, you slay. Seriously.
Eisenhower was going to run as a Democrat if MacArthur ran for President
"why the move in energy?"
Correlated with market moves.
Overlay the S&P on nearly any energy chart.
I expect energy prices will play whack-a-mole with any nascent recovery.
One useful piece of knowledge from the last year is the price of oil that tips us over into demand destruction.
I am two.
After all, I am an economist with both a right hand and a left hand.
November 15, all is well until then. That is when the palaver over the role of the dollar begins, and maybe the emergence of a new nondollar trading system.. Anybody gets that right, and we are going to be billionaires.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Papasloth:
There was no rally.
The Dow got absolutely slaughtered in gold, silver, copper or oil, lost a little to food, and broke even with euros. Just whack-a-mole.
regardless of election outcome I do believe it will some 15 year old scotch and a cigar on the patio for me...
@ Broward Horne
Damn...that post is depressing to me. Is that what 50 is like?
AllenM,
Our cages may get rattled a bit on November 12 with the IEA report...just sayi
energyecon: c'mon... mp was telling us the conjure report would have even Roubini rolled up in the fetal position sucking his thumb. Are people still capable of getting rattled?
I suppose 50 is when things start going wrong, breaking, etc. And also nobody wants to hire them. Thank god I'm only 36 and in perfect health. (Well, I only have a 2 pack ATM...so I need to lose a few LBs) When my body starts to physically die and my society casts me aside as useless, I'll be fuckin bummed too.
But at least you guys can go on the internet and pretend to be younger for some cybersex. That's something.
"Thx. Just saw something about Saudi supply cuts."
The Saudis can still raise or lower production by a fair amount as they see fit. The royal family is conservative. The have increased production since the summer which in most election years would help the incombant administration. They have done their part. Now that the election is over, they will probably cut production to support the price. Petroleum is not a free market.
citizen energyecon writes:
"regardless of election outcome I do believe it will some 15 year old scotch and a cigar on the patio for me..."
Now there's a man after my own heart. I have some nice cigars in the humidor, but I'm out of Scotch. Maybe a little side trip to Lefty's on the way back from the precinct...
Uncle Billy, Militant:
The Lebanese visitors were treated to a live fire demonstration of various types of missile. They then ordered 3,000 missiles of different types and returned home Saturday, Nov. 1.
Post-Chobham era is officially here. Mark it on your calendars.
Here's an indicator for ya. CBRE getting out of the shy business.
CB Richard Ellis quits real estate financing * | L.A. Land | Los Angeles Times
The discrimination part is very true.
I'm mid-40s. It's a bitter fight against the aging process every day.
About all I've succeeded in doing with all the exercise, etc is looking like a retired professional wrestler.
I will say that if the rally holds up through Friday. Kattie bar the doors. I just don't think it will.
well, "contemplate with resignation" that so many folks think casting a vote will solve everything.
Well, it's better than sitting in a Starbucks and blogging about how useless everything is.
Look at the bright side, dude. ED drugs. The last generation of oldsters just sat there and thought about it. Now we can suck down a pill and whamo young where it counts again.
With $200 and a Viagra, the world is your oyster. And you don't have to talk to her at breakfast.
Good times to be old, dude.
"Uncle Billy, Militant writes:
Here's an indicator for ya. CBRE getting out of the shy business."
Now, only if Richard Ellis would get out of the commerical brokerage business.
Uncle Billy,
Dunno, but if the rumor of a global decline rate of 9% turns out to be true, the speed on the treadmill just got cranked up by about 125% (current speculation has it at 4% IIRC).
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
"I suppose 50 is when things start going wrong, breaking, etc. And also nobody wants to hire them. Thank god I'm only 36 and in perfect health."
It starts at 40, but you don't notice it immediately. By 50, you realize what has happened - it hits you when your health insurance bill goes up 20% but you can't read it because your eyes are going.
I started my own company when I turned 40 because I realized that was going to be the only way I could have any job security going forward. Damn glad I did.
Taken for Granite writes:
Well, it's better than sitting in a Starbucks and blogging about how useless everything is.
Maybe so, but toss in a blueberry muffin, and it's a wash.
From my house,I can see 235 people on this blog...........1st Dude Todd Palin...FUCKIN A
Byz: esoteric armor references? Dewd, you keep me on my toes.
Well uncle wiki says israel, as of a march 2008 report, has about 1,000 "high quality" mbt's, with 300 on order. And another 1,500 or so lesser quality tanks.
Coincidentally that's almost as many anti tank rockets as hizbollah just ordered.
Uncle Billy- just business as usual in the Middle East.
Hizzies just don't understand that without the US to stop Bibi (who will politely tell BHO that the sun is shining, but hey there are enemies to kill) that missles are just a tactical annoyance. The Russians will gladly take all of the money the Iranians are willing to waste on munitions. All I note is the Israeli's took delivery of huge numbers of our top end bunker busters, which leads me to believe the next war will proceed at lightspeed with a lot more devastation rained down on Lebanon. After all, those missles only work is somebody is alive to aim and fire them, and they can be deployed. A lto of time and energy has probably gone into a two thousand mission sortie set that destroys most of the bunkers in S. Lebanon.
In other words, when the balloon goes up again, I don't think an Olmert style government with angst and wringing hands will be in power. Once again, foes of Israel confuse internal political squabbles with real divisions. I foresee a tit for tat fiasco in the interregnum from the election to Jan 20th. First Israel hits the nuke labs, and Iran has Hizzies hit Israel.
The real wild card is what happens when Iran takes on the US Navy. That is when the fecal matter hits the rotating blades. Even modest losses of US Navy ships will force a large response by the US, no matter who is in office at the time.
Oh yeah, and relief from high oil prices...har.
Gotta have another war in the Middle East, just to keep the 70's show rerun on track here.
Someday this war's gonna end...
UBS and Royal Bank of Scotland Issue Gloomy Outlooks for Balance of Year - NY Times
2 European Banks Offer Gloomy Outlooks
Citizen AllenM,
If any of the "Sizzler" missiles work as advertised, that could bring out a tac nuke response...
sm landlord
39yo GC in the Carolinas. 6 months worth of work has evaporated in the last 2 weeks. 3 seperate clients, very little on the horizon. Considering becoming a public adjustor. any thoughts? anyone?
CW,
Apply for a job with the FDIC or RTC.
AllenM: I'm quite sure you're on the mark regarding large ordnance,etc... the thing is that they've been stockpiling large quantities of weapons in the occupied territories and in israel "proper" as well. As the bunkers are being busted in Lebanon and Syria, very bad things are going to be happening on the ground in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and small towns from Eilat to Metulla.
I made about a 7-8% gain on total investment today even though I am very short into TWM and EEV and got clobbered there.
The combination of long commodities/PMs and short stocks is working well, just like I hoped.
On days like today, the commodities/PMs feed profits that can be reinvested into short stocks. When it turns around, the feed can reverse direction.
Ultimately, I expect lots higher commodities/PMs and lots lower stocks.
Here's what I have:
SVL, SWL, GLD, DBA, DBC, DBE
apologies if this has already been posted here, but here's the Onion's light-hearted take on the election, via Angerybear.com
Voting Machines Elect One Of Their Own As President | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
The Age of Machines has begun!
Sorry, it's SLV and SLW.
ew thread
Rich:
Do you have limits on EEV? I agree with your premise three months out, but short term could be hairy as today demonstrated.
I like gold but hate GLD. It seems on up days you get 1/2 the uptick and on down days you get hammered double. AUY was up 16% today, now I'm only down about 30% on it
energyecon,
I am sure they work as advertised on folks who are not ready, just ask the Israeli Navy. But that surprise should have been kept in the can.
One of the problems with all of the Russian for export stuff is that it always seems to be just a touch behind first world equipment.
Ask Saddam. They sold him just a couple of the best items and crammed his stockpiles with obsolecent crap. Plus training? Oh yeah, training.
As far as I am concerned, when somebody starts selling topshelf equipment on the black market in quantity, along with mercs to run it, then you have a shooting match. Right now, it is still game, set, match to the west.
I rate Blackwater a more dangerous outfit than any nondemocracy in the Middle East. Quite frankly, until they understand they don't have the depth of training that the average Israeli middle aged weekend warrior manages, the armies of the middle east are good for repressing your typical rebellious city by indiscriminitely shooting a bunch of civilians.
One of the problems with the limited war that Olmert fought with Hiz is that the folks who had to hold their fire and wait for political clearance on every significant part of the battle will neglect to allow that much control to muddy their objectives next time. Further, they will most likely sucker their opponents into a full scale military confrontation and subsequent battle of annihilation.
Put the Israelis back against the wall, and it will do some very nasty things that right now don't evenenter into the minds of their opponenets.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"citizen energyecon writes:
Uncle Billy,
Dunno, but if the rumor of a global decline rate of 9% turns out to be true..."
Linky?
I can see a new thread from my house.......1st Dude Todd Palin...FUCKIN A
Thought that Israeli Aegis cruiser was hit by an older Silkworm?
Mr. T's 42 year old gay son has turned lemons into lemonade with the sophisticated help of his daddy. Sounds like the Barney Frank story on the Hallmark channel. Tasty
This is a bear rally, and to strengthen it we will soon have a new president elected. It does not matter which one it will be, the vanishing of the uncertainty will help the markets. For some small time. A week, two weeks, maybe a month, but sorry, in the end the fundamentals are horrible and continue to become worse. We are in a big bear cycle, and it ain't over yet. Not by far.
FFDIC writes:
- NY Times oref=slogin
2 European Banks Offer Gloomy Outlooks
Not to worry; "it's all contained"
A.Z.
Nope Chinese C-802 variant.
C-802 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
They had their missle defenses off.
Not bright, but hey, they were surprise.
Next time it will be different, and the surprise is lost.
Uncle Billy, Militant writes:
Byz: esoteric armor references? Dewd, you keep me on my toes.
Oh yeah baby. I came to political economy from defense studies.
Well, BR- what is your take ont eh Midlde East- which part blows out next?
"Nope Chinese C-802 variant."
And the article states that Iran has 60.
Plus an unknown number of Sunburns, dug in around Bandar Abbas.
With a flight time of around 20 seconds in this tiny theater.
A.Z.
If you push the button, that turns on the radar, and the next button that activates the Phalanx and other close in defensive systems, that might not have been a problem.
The way they were operating was more like a pleasure cruise than a war operation.
The funny part is they admit they were stupid and unprepared.
Someday this war's gonna end...
AZ,
Here is the story:
"Output from the world's oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, quoting from a draft International Energy Agency report it had obtained.
The newspaper said the watchdog's annual World Energy Outlook report, which studied the biggest fields, showed that without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline was 9.1 percent."
Yahoo! News - Not Found
What is really interesting to me is that there was a press release by the IEA which said they would only discuss the report in their news conference on November 12, but that is no longer on their web site.
so, Citizen EnergyEcon, what is the true shadow price of oil in the face of that kind of decline in production?
Or are we in a temporary accomodation due to the collapse of demand?
Of course, with an economic recovery, the price of oil will overshoot, if it is under the absolute replacement cost.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Text of IEA press release no longer available:
IEA Statement on Unauthorised Press Coverage of World Energy Outlook 2008
The Financial Times carried a cover page article this morning and a second article on page 4 allegedly reporting on the findings of the forthcoming WEO 2008. This article was drafted without any consultation with the IEA. It appears to be based on an early version of a draft from several months ago that was subsequently revised and updated. The numbers in the article can be misleading and should not be quoted or considered to be official IEA results. We are dismayed that such a comprehensive and important IEA report was made public without our input and verification.
The IEA will present the final and accurate results of the World Energy Outlook 2008 officially as planned at a press conference in London on 12 November. At that time, we will be happy to discuss the results and their implications for the global energy and climate in full detail.
As a manager at a growing semiconductor company, I've interviewed hundreds of software engineers. I've even hired some over 50.
The problem with the over-50 programming crowd isn't that they're over 50. It's that they lose their edge and let their skill sets rot. They stop learning new skills and polishing the ones they have.
The over-50 programmers that really dig into their work with the same gusto and enthusiasm as a 22-year-old new college graduate do just fine and command high salaries.
Broward Horne post, in addition to proving which of these camps he is in, has also proven that he is just a whiney little cunt.
Once, in Model Senate (while in High School, many moons ago), I sponsored a bill that changed the national currency to Toasted Cheese / Grilled Cheese (with various sub units comprised of quarters thereof). It passed.
Dunno Citizen AllenM, just that we will need a sh!tpot more investment simply to maintain production of ~87.5 mmbod - so each and every year we need to add new production of ~7.9 mmbod just to stay flat and additions above and beyond that to actually grow production...if the decline rate is at 9%. IIRC, the number most often used is 4%, which is ~3.5 mmbod to run in place.
And should we continue to grow production, that replacement number to run in place increases as well...
Recommended reading:
National Petroleum Council: Facing the Hard Truths About Energy
"In other words, when the balloon goes up again, I don't think an Olmert style government with angst and wringing hands will be in power. Once again, foes of Israel confuse internal political squabbles with real divisions. I foresee a tit for tat fiasco in the interregnum from the election to Jan 20th. First Israel hits the nuke labs, and Iran has Hizzies hit Israel.
The real wild card is what happens when Iran takes on the US Navy. That is when the fecal matter hits the rotating blades. Even modest losses of US Navy ships will force a large response by the US, no matter who is in office at the time."
Yes, and if all this happens pre-inauguration, the upcoming "24" two-hour epic will seem like a sideshow. Nothing like a "good" (i.e., naval-based) war. The lights will be burning late in Brussels, to no avail.
Japan playing the little currency devaluation carry trade game again, maybe China will get tired of this crap and stick a fork in those bastards. Someone needs to.
papasloth and others,
I just received the call from financialtraders.blogspot.com to take half the profits off.
I just made 50 NDX profits off.
I told you yesterday at the close that the blog is a money machine!
Details are below:
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