"I think it is absurd to hope that the TARP will "establish a floor for housing market fundamentals". Hope is not a plan."
Not only is hope not a plan, but why would any sane person WANT to keep housing unaffordable?! Yeesh - let's have unaffordable gas, cars, and food while we're at it since that'll make the speculators in those markets rich, too... and apparently in Amerika, keeping insolvent crooks in business is more important than setting up an economy where people can work, save, invest, and eventually own their own house outright.
BrianTX@SD, just to be clear "Hope is not a plan" is a phrase I've used for at least 30 years ... and was not intended as a swipe at President-elect Obama.
HARM: "Oh, right, and McCain's slogans were oh-so much more sophisticated:"
You make the mistake of assuming I must have voted for the Republican if I slighted the Democrat. I voted for neither, and believe that McCain would have been an even worse disaster.
Anonymous, I just want to stay away from the political comments. "Hope is not a plan" fit perfectly since AMBAC "expressed hope" about the TARP.
I've heard people say the same thing in business meetings for years - "let's hope for ..." - and it almost always led to disastrous results!
I had a friend that used "dire straits" all the time along time ago, and she was ticked when some band stole the name! Hopefully I can still use 'Hope is not a plan' without it being political.
I can hardly wait for the rubble to shift again in the markets.
Um, as for the living dead zombie mortgage insurers, Dinaldo should be coming by with your happy release soon.
Sodium Pentathol makes a pleasant dreamy demise.
Call up the bulldozers, a huge reordering of the national economy is getting underway!!!
I would suggest that anyone looking to preserve wealth begin buying foreign stocks in relatively stodgy industries not dependent on shipping immense quanitities of stuff to the United States.
We are going to be a little busy with this reorganization.
As much as I disliked Obama's obscure past and lack any trust in him, I believe he was the right choice for President. He has 1 quality that we will desperately need over the next couple of years - Inspirational Speaking.
That'll be all we get. We will need hope because I fear there will be little else, as bread lines swell, unemployment rockets and prosperity becomes such a distant memory with no hope in sight that we will get despair as the principal mood.
Anonymous writes: They'll either wake up to the new world, or perhaps they won't, but no words here are going to help.
I am not an Obama supporter. I just want to hear their pitiful little wails; I've been waiting to rub this in for "FOUR MORE YEARS", and certainly nobody in my living memory has deserved it more.
Don't worry, CR, the O- folks know that you are with them, so you are granted a pass.
Me, I refused to vote for a hard-core Socialist (O-) or a moderate Socialist (M-), and wrote in Ron Paul.
First time that I had not voted Republican since age 20.
The Republicans better get the message that they should ACT for small government and individual liberty. No one buys their words anymore, as witnessed by their utter defeat yesterday.
Obama would agree that hope is not a plan. He is a meticulous and very good planner - look at his campaign, and his impressive legislative record. He understands motivation without action is wasted while action without motivation is abandoned. He puts them together and that's why he's going to be president.
"The companies , which must be highly rated by the credit rating agencies to fulfill their role, provide a back-up guarantee to debt issued by lower rated borrowers in exchange for insurance premiums."
It's Wednesday in America
and we are here now.
We have stood diviiiided for too long,
polarized by position,
stigmatized by suspicion
classified and Kos-ified and denied what we came here to find.
And that aint a party or a platitude. You can't put those in Excel.
We've lost our waaay, brothers and sisters!
We've worn the blue and red glasses for so long
even the numbers look tinted
and slanted. See for yourself. If you're lookin blue or seein red right now, check your face for a comfortable filter.
And check your own hands while you're at it.
We've pointed the finger so far
we can't get our hand back far enough to wipe our own asses.
And the shit we find ourselves in has been leakin out our own behinds.
We're dirty. And we stink.
And I stand before you guilty - in a light blue haze,
not smelling all too bad, but having unconsciously defecated in the past.
Maybe on yo mama.
And yet today I remove my glasses. And the world comes alive in color. And my face is lighter. And the numbers are black and white! And red. A whole lotta red.
And in a technicolor world it don't matter a lick who lives in the chief's hut tonight
or tomorrow
or the next day.
Cause you and I aint IN the chief's hut. We aint in the club, brothers and sisters!
They were just asking us which club we thought seemed cooler. And we said, "probly the one with the longer line."
But you can stand in that line all night.
You can display all the trappings and swagger around and belittle the world around you.
But you're low-class ass aint gettin in the club.
Where are you at if you aint in the club?
With the rest of us. We up shit creek with a turd for a paddle!
Now, true, some people have a nice boat, some have a leaky boat, and some poor bastards are floting along side us in a wore-out inner tube with their legs covered in shit. But here we are.
And it don't matter if this shit looks blue or red or deep purple to you. It don't matter if that bastard in the tube deserves it or if you saw the shit before it covered his toes.
It still stinks like hell!
Smell it! Stop looking around and take a big whiff!
mmmmm..... smells like shit!
So if you want to hate each other
and feel superior by asserting the rightness in your perspective,
and proving it while getting your heart racing and the voice in your head humming like a crazy demon,
keep at it.
But we can throw shit right here.
Aint no need to fight about the chief. We got shit coming out of our ears.
And you look stupid in them glasses anyway. They make your face look fat.
So join me and take off your colored glasses now.
The election is over.
Those glasses don't protect you.
They just make it hard to see what's coming.
It's shit.
Live up to the Rockstar character you play in life and take your hot shit right on the face like a good American.
Cause your colored glasses don't cover your mouth. And if you can't see it comin, you'll be the one screaming the loudest. Think about that.
He was elected for what he stood for: A repudiation of Bush, a symbol to get the monkey off our back as a racist, anti-muslim, empiralistic society. In as much, his job was done the day he was elected.
(Which is not to say this is isignificant. Frankly, I hoped he'd win since this is all I really want of a president...someone to represent us abroad and leave us alone at home)
Read a bunch of articles (MSM) today about how O is handicapped, gonna take it on the chin, dealing with clowns but not his fault, steppin' into a mess, gettin' ready to rollup the sleeves, you know, ...setting the expectations low enough so as not to disapppoint.
GET WITH THE PROGRAM..throw that man a bucket and tell him to start bailing, this ship is SINKING.
No worries. I like the fact O is very smart and articulate but don't agree with 100% of his policies (i.e., not a rabid Obamaniac). However, since R.P. wasn't on the ballot, I held my nose and pulled the lever for the lesser of 2 evils. Dems can't do any worse... right? right?
Of all the Proshares ultrashort sector ETFs, the only one that didn't get slammed today is health care (RXD). It was only down less than 2%.
There is some thinking Obama will go slow on health care reform.
There is some thinking that Obama's brand of health care reform will be good for the industry.
I don't think either view is right.
Health care costs are exploding so fast, and govts. are bearing such a large share of the cost, that there has to be a serious wringing out of the industry very soon. Two years from now, some states will be flat broke if they don't get Medicaid relief. The only way real cost relief can happen quickly is to go national single-payer.
I think this will become clear in 3-4 months and health care stocks will tank.
The question is whether RXD will capture the gains. It is loaded with big pharma, so you would be shorting big pharma. I'd also like to have some short exposure to health insurance cos., hospitals and medical equip. I'm going to do some research into what's available, and I'll let you know.
But the European Pharma stocks for example have worked within a similar system for years. I think that much of this news is priced into European Pharma stocks and even in Big pharma here.
Calculated Risk isn't the only person dubious about Ambac et al.
The Vanguard Group recently merged their insured municipal bond fund with their vanilla municipal bond fund.
Quote:
"The municipal bond market has changed to a point where insured bonds provide little, if any, additional benefit over high-quality uninsured credits. We concluded that a fund focused solely on insured bonds no longer provides tangible benefits," said Gus Sauter, Vanguards chief investment officer. "Shareholders will be better served by merging the two portfolios to create a single, well-diversified, high-quality fund."
Dope jg: Major lobbyist reform, nuke control, auditing for Iraq and Katrina, earmark transparency, first on bird flu, first on mortgage fraud - yeah, Obama's been pretty spectacular for a freshman senator. Even for an experienced Senator that would have been pretty darn good.
I am really looking forward to his mortgage fraud prevention going through, for starters. If it had passed in 2006 when he first proposed it it might well have saved Fannie and Freddie. It's too late for that now but it will still help a lot.
Er -- Carter appointed Volker -- in 1979 I believe. Volker jacked up interest rates, leading to Carter's electoral defeat (along with the Iranian hostage crisis).
I woke up this morning and a vague unease that had hung like a pall over me was lifted. I laid there and thought about the change.
The change was knowing that no matter how bad it gets I do not have to depend on Bush/Cheney/Paulson making decisions for my country. Obama could be illusory but I will allow myself that illusion until proven wrong.
Since I didn't see much of a response when I posed it earlier: What happened to the monoline blowup that was going to take the world down? (Serious question.) TIA for comments.
Prosperity, as near as I can tell, isn't even something that Obama talked about during his campaign. He's more about just getting by and redistributing whatever is capturable. I think equities are burnt toast under his watchful eye.
A few real estate things appear to be happening. In Fla. I was beginning to despair.
The Repubs proved they were just looters and not at all in favor of balanced budgets over the last 8 years. O could not possibly be worse.
He needs to do the fireside chat/blood sweat and tears thing. McC couldn't possibly do that.
Some other issues were important for some people. The Catholic church told my mom not to vote for O because of his stand on abortion. She voted McC and is all unhappy about the election.
I think big pharma has seen this coming a while, but not sure there is a winning plan for them. I would not want to be one of those hotties with the rolling catalog case. Shorting pharma looks golden to me in the medium term.
I haven't seen any bodies in Seattle yet but I'm still hopeful!
--Broward Horne
I have a sister in Seattle. When I warned her the global financial system was teetering on a precipice and she should stock up on staples, she said, "If things get as bad as you say, a few extra groceries won't help, and I'll just kill myself."
I was listening to Obama's speech last night and thought I heard him say that we've got the worst financial crisis in 100 years. But I also thought I heard him mention the recession we're going into. I should go read a transcript.
Why do ratings agencies even use a system that involves letter codes like "Baa1"? How much more opaque could they be in saying what they mean? Why not use a number scale, like 0-100, where a 0 means not a prayer in hell of getting a loan paid back and 100 means absolute certainty that every dollar will be repaid in a timely manner?
CR what happened to this place? You must have removed the requirement of room temp IQ required to comment. I'm moving on to a little more intelligent conversation..with my 5 year old. This blog is soooooo boring
Shorting pharma looks golden to me in the medium term.
1925er,
Thanks, I'm gonna do it based on your advice.
I'm thinking maybe Obama will let Americans and Medicare/Medicaid order pills cheap from Canada. Wouldn't that be a nice middle-class-friendly thing to do?
To all who persist with things like elections past (for example, yesterday's), here's some advice from decades ago:
While some on principles baptized
To strict party platform ties
Social clubs in drag disguise
Outsiders they freely criticize
Tell nothing except who to idolize
. . . and say "God Bless him."
"The next treasury secretary will inherit a dramatically changed financial landscape. ... He should immediately erase the bailout safety net: You lever your bank past the point of danger, you don't get bailed out, you get taken over. And prosecuted."
big pharma has a target about 16 inches around, right between the shoulder blades. they have been over-reaching and even Nancy/Harry/Henry can shoot that good.
Cleansing required writes:
CR what happened to this place? You must have removed the requirement of room temp IQ required to comment. I'm moving on to a little more intelligent conversation..with my 5 year old. This blog is soooooo boring
Cleansing required | 11.05.08 - 6:08 pm | #
I have been here for 3 years and I have never seen your "name"...have you contributed anything?
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) writes:
C'mon, L-liz. I sit in the pew every Sunday for Mass. The Catholic Church says vote for those who uphold Catholic/Christian values
I'm thinking maybe Obama will let Americans and Medicare/Medicaid order pills cheap from Canada.
Ahh. The states are going to love that. More hits on their sales tax revenue.
By the way, be careful shorting Big Pharma, at least in the short term. The Supreme Court just held oral arguments in case to determine whether pharmaceutical manufacturers are shielded from product liability claims. Could mean relatively big pop for some members of Big Pharma, especially Merck, who has yet to pay a single penny while awaiting this case.
Long term, Big Pharma's toast. Pipeline is devoid of any blockbuster, and the approval process may get rigorous under an Obama administration.
But then again, Michigan (a pretty blue state) has been selling its soul to Big Pharma for years now...
CSC it must be the resin in the brain.... That said I think nerdy girls are sexy as hell. Esp with those pointy glasses... God i love them... I think we could do a pretty good nerd pron site....
Look for a change in the free trade agreements .
I'm guessing they will allow any company to sell
what they want here as long as it is made here.
My guess at least 50% content. Next battle will
be for a tax on imported oil so not to discourage
oil production in the US.
When are they cutting Enron's rating?
Way to get ahead of the curve.
WHere is my fork?
Faith without works is dead.
CR: "Hope is not a plan."
YES WE CAN!
Why is WFC doing a stock offering of $10 billion? I thought Kovachevich said they didn't need additional capital?
"I think it is absurd to hope that the TARP will "establish a floor for housing market fundamentals". Hope is not a plan."
Not only is hope not a plan, but why would any sane person WANT to keep housing unaffordable?! Yeesh - let's have unaffordable gas, cars, and food while we're at it since that'll make the speculators in those markets rich, too... and apparently in Amerika, keeping insolvent crooks in business is more important than setting up an economy where people can work, save, invest, and eventually own their own house outright.
The Great Unwinding continues...there is nothing that can stop this freight train....see you at 610
"Hope is not a plan."
I tried telling the Obama folks that for a year. Obviously fell upon deaf ears.
BrianTX@SD, just to be clear "Hope is not a plan" is a phrase I've used for at least 30 years ... and was not intended as a swipe at President-elect Obama.
Best to all.
Glad to see the markets returning to normal (downward).
CR: That's too bad, because it should have been.
To be clear, my comment was.
As with most failed government programs, my tax contributions go to the delinquents of America.
Indeed, the point remains :->
Can the CEO of ABK be added to the Sec of treasury list? He appears to be highly qualified and 100% incompetent...
Relax, CR ! No need for explains.
He's prez now and has been a big boy for quite some time. He's fair game.
CR: "Hope is not a plan."
YES WE CAN!
Oh, right, and McCain's slogans were oh-so much more sophisticated:
"Maverick"
"Drill baby drill"
"Change we can believe in"
Nice disclaimer, but if the shoe fits....
AMD cutting 500 jobs....will their be anyone left in SV?
BrianTX@SD writes:
He's prez now and has been a big boy for quite some time. He's fair game.
No, actually, the traitors to the Republic still have their trained monkey in the chair.
Remember him, the semi-divine "decider" you were crushing on before Caribou Barbie came into the picture?
Deja vu, deja vu, deja vu, deja vu, deja vu, deja vu, deja vu...
Oh, right, and McCain's slogans were oh-so much more sophisticated:
Note to the O supporters: Don't bother the McCain droids. They're in a grieving process, and you don't want to interfere with that.
They'll either wake up to the new world, or perhaps they won't, but no words here are going to help.
You mean hope isn't a plan?
Nuts.
NoVA DMD writes:
As with most failed government programs, my tax contributions go to the delinquents of America.
NoVA DMD | 11.05.08 - 5:20 pm | #
Is there anything else you'd like to add? I believe I've read that or a similar comment a few times from you.
Delinquents: The entire free market system with a dash of capitalism.
The MAC is BACK...
...in Phoenix
About time this downgrade occurred.
Eh ok...lets back off the election references...I'll agree to if everyone else does ~_~
I thought hope was a crappy hedge?
HARM: "Oh, right, and McCain's slogans were oh-so much more sophisticated:"
You make the mistake of assuming I must have voted for the Republican if I slighted the Democrat. I voted for neither, and believe that McCain would have been an even worse disaster.
Have a nice day.
Joe 6 pack
Joe the Plumber
Hockey mom's
Don't cha know
OK Anon +1!
Kinda like "drill baby drill."
/me saying it softly sotto voce .
bond insurer rated Baa1. wtf?
Anonymous, I just want to stay away from the political comments. "Hope is not a plan" fit perfectly since AMBAC "expressed hope" about the TARP.
I've heard people say the same thing in business meetings for years - "let's hope for ..." - and it almost always led to disastrous results!
I had a friend that used "dire straits" all the time along time ago, and she was ticked when some band stole the name! Hopefully I can still use 'Hope is not a plan' without it being political.
Best to all.
I can hardly wait for the rubble to shift again in the markets.
Um, as for the living dead zombie mortgage insurers, Dinaldo should be coming by with your happy release soon.
Sodium Pentathol makes a pleasant dreamy demise.
Call up the bulldozers, a huge reordering of the national economy is getting underway!!!
I would suggest that anyone looking to preserve wealth begin buying foreign stocks in relatively stodgy industries not dependent on shipping immense quanitities of stuff to the United States.
We are going to be a little busy with this reorganization.
Someday this war's gonna end...
As much as I disliked Obama's obscure past and lack any trust in him, I believe he was the right choice for President. He has 1 quality that we will desperately need over the next couple of years - Inspirational Speaking.
That'll be all we get. We will need hope because I fear there will be little else, as bread lines swell, unemployment rockets and prosperity becomes such a distant memory with no hope in sight that we will get despair as the principal mood.
New Hope Corporation Ltd. NHPEF
$2.00
Change:-1.53 -43.34%
I guess it really is not time to go long hope.
So what? I downgrade Moody's. Gimme some money
Anonymous writes:
They'll either wake up to the new world, or perhaps they won't, but no words here are going to help.
I am not an Obama supporter. I just want to hear their pitiful little wails; I've been waiting to rub this in for "FOUR MORE YEARS", and certainly nobody in my living memory has deserved it more.
Look for a surprise announcement by Obama on the next Treasury Secretary to offset the dive that Cisco just assured in tomorrow's market.
And back we come to the failure of the monoline insurers.
Has anyone done a serious write up on universal debt forgiveness for the world?
Better than universal default which we are witnessing.
Don't worry, CR, the O- folks know that you are with them, so you are granted a pass.
Me, I refused to vote for a hard-core Socialist (O-) or a moderate Socialist (M-), and wrote in Ron Paul.
First time that I had not voted Republican since age 20.
The Republicans better get the message that they should ACT for small government and individual liberty. No one buys their words anymore, as witnessed by their utter defeat yesterday.
Obama would agree that hope is not a plan. He is a meticulous and very good planner - look at his campaign, and his impressive legislative record. He understands motivation without action is wasted while action without motivation is abandoned. He puts them together and that's why he's going to be president.
"The companies , which must be highly rated by the credit rating agencies to fulfill their role, provide a back-up guarantee to debt issued by lower rated borrowers in exchange for insurance premiums."
Someone needs to update wikipedia.
Monoline insurance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"The big issue for bond insurers is their ratings,"
That Jim Ryan dude is a nitwit. The ratings are not the problem. The problem is that MBI and ABK are failing businesses.
He sounds just like the fed - it's a confidence problem.
What a sham. We have debt and income problems.
Let the McCain supporters vent. The sooner they get it out of their systems, the better.
Hilarious, MoT!
Zoom, debt writeoff has a long and noble history, and it is where we will arrive, ultimately, I think:
Michael Hudson - financial economist and historian
Click on 'Articles'
Scroll down to 'Debt'
See 92, 'The Lost Tradition of Biblical Debt Cancellations'
O-, get Reverend Wright to start speaking on this, so we can get this train moving!
ambac and mbia are no longer even newsworthy. The fraud is over, no one pays for their ratings anymore.
It's Wednesday in America
and we are here now.
We have stood diviiiided for too long,
polarized by position,
stigmatized by suspicion
classified and Kos-ified and denied what we came here to find.
And that aint a party or a platitude. You can't put those in Excel.
We've lost our waaay, brothers and sisters!
We've worn the blue and red glasses for so long
even the numbers look tinted
and slanted. See for yourself. If you're lookin blue or seein red right now, check your face for a comfortable filter.
And check your own hands while you're at it.
We've pointed the finger so far
we can't get our hand back far enough to wipe our own asses.
And the shit we find ourselves in has been leakin out our own behinds.
We're dirty. And we stink.
And I stand before you guilty - in a light blue haze,
not smelling all too bad, but having unconsciously defecated in the past.
Maybe on yo mama.
And yet today I remove my glasses. And the world comes alive in color. And my face is lighter. And the numbers are black and white! And red. A whole lotta red.
And in a technicolor world it don't matter a lick who lives in the chief's hut tonight
or tomorrow
or the next day.
Cause you and I aint IN the chief's hut. We aint in the club, brothers and sisters!
They were just asking us which club we thought seemed cooler. And we said, "probly the one with the longer line."
But you can stand in that line all night.
You can display all the trappings and swagger around and belittle the world around you.
But you're low-class ass aint gettin in the club.
Where are you at if you aint in the club?
With the rest of us. We up shit creek with a turd for a paddle!
FROM: General Paulus Bernankus FULDA
TO: Western Division Central Command, Berlin
Operation RIGHTEOUS WIND has been implemented.
Furloughs are cancelled in the Paris area.
Fulda.
Now, true, some people have a nice boat, some have a leaky boat, and some poor bastards are floting along side us in a wore-out inner tube with their legs covered in shit. But here we are.
And it don't matter if this shit looks blue or red or deep purple to you. It don't matter if that bastard in the tube deserves it or if you saw the shit before it covered his toes.
It still stinks like hell!
Smell it! Stop looking around and take a big whiff!
mmmmm..... smells like shit!
So if you want to hate each other
and feel superior by asserting the rightness in your perspective,
and proving it while getting your heart racing and the voice in your head humming like a crazy demon,
keep at it.
But we can throw shit right here.
Aint no need to fight about the chief. We got shit coming out of our ears.
And you look stupid in them glasses anyway. They make your face look fat.
So join me and take off your colored glasses now.
The election is over.
Those glasses don't protect you.
They just make it hard to see what's coming.
It's shit.
Live up to the Rockstar character you play in life and take your hot shit right on the face like a good American.
Cause your colored glasses don't cover your mouth. And if you can't see it comin, you'll be the one screaming the loudest. Think about that.
That's the truth!
Fulda. The center must hold. Today...we are all Parisians
Nobody voted for what Obama would actually DO.
He was elected for what he stood for: A repudiation of Bush, a symbol to get the monkey off our back as a racist, anti-muslim, empiralistic society. In as much, his job was done the day he was elected.
(Which is not to say this is isignificant. Frankly, I hoped he'd win since this is all I really want of a president...someone to represent us abroad and leave us alone at home)
Now we hope he does as little damage as possible.
CSC-
I'm right behind you in shit creek but I can't see you. You seem to have gone around the bend. Wait up!
Read a bunch of articles (MSM) today about how O is handicapped, gonna take it on the chin, dealing with clowns but not his fault, steppin' into a mess, gettin' ready to rollup the sleeves, you know, ...setting the expectations low enough so as not to disapppoint.
GET WITH THE PROGRAM..throw that man a bucket and tell him to start bailing, this ship is SINKING.
No one buys their words anymore, as witnessed by their utter defeat yesterday.
Someone posted a link earlier that the loss was only by 5%. Can that be right?
From the previous thread:
Reagan - appointed Volcker to strangle inflation
OK, I admit I'm too young to remember this period, and I understand that Volcker did manage to strangle inflation.
However, can we laud him for strangling the price/wage spiral and simultaneously fault Reagan for destroying the unions?
Fair Economist, that is why you are only 'Fair' and not 'Good' or 'Exceptional.'
O- had an impressive legislative record? Are you joking?
Are you guys already trying to build him up into 'The Great Leader,' as was done in the U.S.S.R. and P.D.R.K.?
@Rob Dawg & BrianTX,
No worries. I like the fact O is very smart and articulate but don't agree with 100% of his policies (i.e., not a rabid Obamaniac). However, since R.P. wasn't on the ballot, I held my nose and pulled the lever for the lesser of 2 evils. Dems can't do any worse... right? right?
Of all the Proshares ultrashort sector ETFs, the only one that didn't get slammed today is health care (RXD). It was only down less than 2%.
There is some thinking Obama will go slow on health care reform.
There is some thinking that Obama's brand of health care reform will be good for the industry.
I don't think either view is right.
Health care costs are exploding so fast, and govts. are bearing such a large share of the cost, that there has to be a serious wringing out of the industry very soon. Two years from now, some states will be flat broke if they don't get Medicaid relief. The only way real cost relief can happen quickly is to go national single-payer.
I think this will become clear in 3-4 months and health care stocks will tank.
The question is whether RXD will capture the gains. It is loaded with big pharma, so you would be shorting big pharma. I'd also like to have some short exposure to health insurance cos., hospitals and medical equip. I'm going to do some research into what's available, and I'll let you know.
How many jobs to go before U.S. Jobs = 0
Cordially,
Kilgore
P.S.: Marx was right.
Rich
But the European Pharma stocks for example have worked within a similar system for years. I think that much of this news is priced into European Pharma stocks and even in Big pharma here.
I hope that I keep making money against these asshats.
Calculated Risk isn't the only person dubious about Ambac et al.
The Vanguard Group recently merged their insured municipal bond fund with their vanilla municipal bond fund.
Quote:
"The municipal bond market has changed to a point where insured bonds provide little, if any, additional benefit over high-quality uninsured credits. We concluded that a fund focused solely on insured bonds no longer provides tangible benefits," said Gus Sauter, Vanguards chief investment officer. "Shareholders will be better served by merging the two portfolios to create a single, well-diversified, high-quality fund."
Dope jg: Major lobbyist reform, nuke control, auditing for Iraq and Katrina, earmark transparency, first on bird flu, first on mortgage fraud - yeah, Obama's been pretty spectacular for a freshman senator. Even for an experienced Senator that would have been pretty darn good.
I am really looking forward to his mortgage fraud prevention going through, for starters. If it had passed in 2006 when he first proposed it it might well have saved Fannie and Freddie. It's too late for that now but it will still help a lot.
Reagan - appointed Volcker to strangle inflation
CARTER appointed Volker. Reagan RE-appointed him.
Margin of defeat was 6%:
63.7MM for O-, 56.3MM for M-.
Ignoring third parties, that is 53% for O-, 47% for M-.
DRUDGE REPORT 2010®
Not a landslide, but a significant repudiation, especially in light of the additional losses in the House and Senate.
May the Republicans hear loud and clear.
Voting for the bailout sunk them.
As I observed yesterday:
I suspect that this "rally" will last only as long as it takes to influence a few votes at the polls.
...my bet is that equity markets start dropping again tomorrow.
unirealist | 11.04.08 - 3:10 pm | #
And so, the Dow down 486 today. The bloodshed begins in earnest now.
Oops:
Reagan - appointed Volcker to strangle inflation
Er -- Carter appointed Volker -- in 1979 I believe. Volker jacked up interest rates, leading to Carter's electoral defeat (along with the Iranian hostage crisis).
Fair Economist, you are easily impressed.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) | 11.05.08 - 5:43 pm | #
I woke up this morning and a vague unease that had hung like a pall over me was lifted. I laid there and thought about the change.
The change was knowing that no matter how bad it gets I do not have to depend on Bush/Cheney/Paulson making decisions for my country. Obama could be illusory but I will allow myself that illusion until proven wrong.
Since I didn't see much of a response when I posed it earlier: What happened to the monoline blowup that was going to take the world down? (Serious question.) TIA for comments.
CSC some people have a nice boat, some have a leaky boat, and some poor bastards are floting along side us in a wore-out inner tube
I have scuba gear and I went to Belize. I am NOT a janitor, dude!
Get busy and clean this mess up before I get back in 2012.
Ambac expressed hope that the Treasurys TARP program and capital purchase program would establish a floor for housing market fundamentals
Well, I think Ambac should look to income and rents to "establish a floor for housing market fundamentals
Got to get behind the mule (in the mornin' and plow) Tom Waits. CSC - you crazy bastard. I love ya!
unirealist, makes sense to me.
Trailing twelve mos. P/E for S&P 500 was 21.3 as of last Friday, against the historic average of 15.6 since '36.
P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
May the correction begin in earnest, now that the election is over!
Prosperity, as near as I can tell, isn't even something that Obama talked about during his campaign. He's more about just getting by and redistributing whatever is capturable. I think equities are burnt toast under his watchful eye.
Gosh, are they still in business?
And so, the Dow down 486 today. The bloodshed begins in earnest now
I haven't seen any bodies in Seattle yet but I'm still hopeful!
establish a floor for housing market fundamentals,
Hmmm....
In GDI they tried to establish a price floor, for wages.
That didn't work out so well.
That oughta completely crater the res housing market.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
I'm going out on a limb with a noose on but I think we will be up for the week...
AMBAC is going down due to ratings downgrades? Not corruption,incompetence and a ludicrous business plan...hoocoodanode?
This country was doomed the night Reagan was elected President. I said it then, and events since can be interpreted no other way.
Amazingly, there are still millions who think he was God.
whoa on Reagan! dead people are out of the game, regardless of their record. even Lenin is harmless now.
The Plunge Protection Team retired yesterday. The markets are on their own. Good luck, it will be a nasty ride down to fresh lows.
I voted for Obama because of what he'll do.
BTW, I never thought I would see people dance in the streets because of the results of a US presidental election:
Presidential Race | Thousands celebrate in Seattle streets | Seattle Times Newspaper
This speach could have been written for AMBAC and MBIA:
Page Not Found - MSN Encarta
A few real estate things appear to be happening. In Fla. I was beginning to despair.
The Repubs proved they were just looters and not at all in favor of balanced budgets over the last 8 years. O could not possibly be worse.
He needs to do the fireside chat/blood sweat and tears thing. McC couldn't possibly do that.
Some other issues were important for some people. The Catholic church told my mom not to vote for O because of his stand on abortion. She voted McC and is all unhappy about the election.
Why isn't this a bigger news story?
YouTube - Baby miniature horse on the loose!
I think big pharma has seen this coming a while, but not sure there is a winning plan for them. I would not want to be one of those hotties with the rolling catalog case. Shorting pharma looks golden to me in the medium term.
I haven't seen any bodies in Seattle yet but I'm still hopeful!
--Broward Horne
I have a sister in Seattle. When I warned her the global financial system was teetering on a precipice and she should stock up on staples, she said, "If things get as bad as you say, a few extra groceries won't help, and I'll just kill myself."
So if you start finding bodies, let me know.
If we're going to do it right, the cannibalism movement should begin with the suicidal. That way we can ease society into this new mode of survival.
You'll probably want to bleed em out without too much trauma. I recommend cutting off the head.
observations on CNBC: newscorp down big - who would have guessed, judging by the quality slide at WSJ?
whoa on Reagan! dead people are out of the game
Then tell his son Michael on talk radio to STFU. He brings up how great his dad was at least once an hour.
Besides, if we don't understand how we got here, it's hard to know which direction we need to go.
I was listening to Obama's speech last night and thought I heard him say that we've got the worst financial crisis in 100 years. But I also thought I heard him mention the recession we're going into. I should go read a transcript.
CSC: if you're just trolling for a gross-out, I'm there
Why do ratings agencies even use a system that involves letter codes like "Baa1"? How much more opaque could they be in saying what they mean? Why not use a number scale, like 0-100, where a 0 means not a prayer in hell of getting a loan paid back and 100 means absolute certainty that every dollar will be repaid in a timely manner?
CR what happened to this place? You must have removed the requirement of room temp IQ required to comment. I'm moving on to a little more intelligent conversation..with my 5 year old. This blog is soooooo boring
Long pig is not good for you, CSC.
1925er,
Thanks, I'm gonna do it based on your advice.
I'm thinking maybe Obama will let Americans and Medicare/Medicaid order pills cheap from Canada. Wouldn't that be a nice middle-class-friendly thing to do?
I'm not defending any politician, just don't see the return in beating dead people.
"Hope is not a plan and change is not a $ bill!"
To all who persist with things like elections past (for example, yesterday's), here's some advice from decades ago:
While some on principles baptized
To strict party platform ties
Social clubs in drag disguise
Outsiders they freely criticize
Tell nothing except who to idolize
. . . and say "God Bless him."
--"It's Alright, Ma" (Bob Dylan)
The rest is just history.
Why rate bonds at all, just trade the CDS's publicly, or let people bet on them on Intrade. Intrade called the election perfectly.
Reagan's dead?
"The next treasury secretary will inherit a dramatically changed financial landscape. ... He should immediately erase the bailout safety net: You lever your bank past the point of danger, you don't get bailed out, you get taken over. And prosecuted."
Why I'm Happy the Stock Market Crashed - Esquire
Why isn't this a bigger story?
YouTube -
big pharma has a target about 16 inches around, right between the shoulder blades. they have been over-reaching and even Nancy/Harry/Henry can shoot that good.
EHP - cutest ...video... ever!
CSC, Is the cannibalist movement some kind of new school of economics?
Cleansing required writes:
CR what happened to this place? You must have removed the requirement of room temp IQ required to comment. I'm moving on to a little more intelligent conversation..with my 5 year old. This blog is soooooo boring
Cleansing required | 11.05.08 - 6:08 pm | #
I have been here for 3 years and I have never seen your "name"...have you contributed anything?
C'mon, L-liz. I sit in the pew every Sunday for Mass. The Catholic Church says vote for those who uphold Catholic/Christian values.
They don't say, 'Vote McCain.'
They did say Vote for Prop. 8 (no to gay marriage).
But, endorsement of a specific candidate is a no-no, potentially impairing their tax-exempt status.
Day two of the O- interregnum, and S&P 500 futures are down 13 points:
Intraday Futures Prices - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
How rude. Where's the honeymoon, Mr. Market?
just to be clear "Hope is not a plan" is a phrase I've used for at least 30 years ... and was not intended as a swipe at President-elect Obama.
I "hope" you won't hesitate to take swipes at Obama if you feel the need in the future. How can you have "hope" without "audacity".
Besides, heckling is good therapy for all the foolishness that comes out of Washington.
OK - Cisco's guidance was quite atrocious.
Even after the nearly 100 point Nasdaq tumble investors are not prepared to see Xmas quarter guidance moved to 5-10% annualized decline.
Relax! He knows comments about HOPE aren't all about him. Think of the last residents of the WH from Hope.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg) writes:
C'mon, L-liz. I sit in the pew every Sunday for Mass. The Catholic Church says vote for those who uphold Catholic/Christian values
Is pedophilia a Catholic/Christian value?
Ponyless: Just remember that social taboos aren't worth dying over.
Sing this aloud when you work and it's all good.
YouTube -
I'm thinking maybe Obama will let Americans and Medicare/Medicaid order pills cheap from Canada.
Ahh. The states are going to love that. More hits on their sales tax revenue.
By the way, be careful shorting Big Pharma, at least in the short term. The Supreme Court just held oral arguments in case to determine whether pharmaceutical manufacturers are shielded from product liability claims. Could mean relatively big pop for some members of Big Pharma, especially Merck, who has yet to pay a single penny while awaiting this case.
Long term, Big Pharma's toast. Pipeline is devoid of any blockbuster, and the approval process may get rigorous under an Obama administration.
But then again, Michigan (a pretty blue state) has been selling its soul to Big Pharma for years now...
CSC, Heh. Your life must be fun. Preparing for the apocalypse and all.
No, A-. Fallen folks in all walks of life.
Higher rates of sexual abuse by public school teachers than Catholic school teachers; is that a secular value?
Actually, it is, I think.
ew thread....
CalculatedRISK is boring?
What do you want, fox news style flash and theatrics?
More excitement?
Girlies?
Try the Yahoo boards. They're freaking extreme.
"I'm thinking maybe Obama will let Americans and Medicare/Medicaid order pills cheap from Canada."
Wasn't that Chapelle's plan?
Higher rates of sexual abuse by public school teachers than Catholic school teachers
Funny how sovereign immunity works...
This blog is soooooo boring
Maybe. Maybe not. But it sure has been profitable.
Well its not CalculatedRisque.....
Just say'in (ala dryfly)
CR: If I buy CalculatedRisque.com, will you sue me?
I have some ideas.
CSC i beat you to it! LOL!
CSC it must be the resin in the brain.... That said I think nerdy girls are sexy as hell. Esp with those pointy glasses... God i love them... I think we could do a pretty good nerd pron site....
ades: No, I am considering stealing your intellectual property for profit. I didn't think of that on my own.
http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/1697/110607rq2.jpg
ades: you would most definitely want to have sex with Mrs. Cannabis. How many Krugerrands do you have?
ades - had to save that one. my kinda gal!
CSC LOL!
I've been trying to get them but cant stomach the premium the demand over spot price.
Then again as someone wrote "if you dont expect to pay the premium you know knothing about gold and should be buying it"
Or something to that effect... I figured that was prolly me then...
Does Mrs CSC puff, glasses and smokes.. thats my kinda girl!
should have read:
"Does Mrs CSC puff? glasses and smokes.. thats my kinda girl! :)"
Look for a change in the free trade agreements .
I'm guessing they will allow any company to sell
what they want here as long as it is made here.
My guess at least 50% content. Next battle will
be for a tax on imported oil so not to discourage
oil production in the US.