Can anyone add some insights (I'm without a fund of knowledge, but am interested observer) as to how the Wolf Wave Five thing is playing out here? Is this a harbinger of a move down within that wave?
Ben/Hank better act quick. Or do they care any more now that Obama gets to clean up?
My guess is that the stock market will rally. Bad news doesn't matter. We have our man in the White House. Stimulus package is guaranteed, only size being debated.
I first picked up on the term when reading Mish. He seems to think this is where we are, Wave 5 of 3 up.
I watch but don't trade. I think we're headed to deeper water and lower markets. I would appreciate 'hearing' from the technicians or Elliot Wave adherents about this subject.
We stopped this morning at the 0.382 Fibonacci retrace of the move from 1007.51 to 845.27; if this breaks we'll head for the 0.50 Fib support of 925 (922 is a high volume swing - needs high volume to break it and hold or it will spring)
For historical purposes, the unemployment numbers really should be adjusted to the population or the working-age population. When you consider there are many more people, we're not really worse than 1991 - yet.
Fair Economist,
a simple employment ratio is the best gauge in my opinion. Just because x# of people are not in the work force, or labour pool, does not mean that production does not need to support them
Volker,
Probably everything other than their smaller/cheaper cars and the volt. They've already stopped the Tahoe/Suburban, and I think GMC truck updates. What's left is stuff like the corvette or camaro
GM cannot suspend new model development. Their $25b in loans is from DOE and is to meet new CAFE fleet standards. A big part of that us hybrid. GM stops that and poof - no loans.
Anyone else think Boeing machinist union won a pyric victory? The have a better contract (pending) but now oil is down, capacity is shrinking and new loans for capital equipment are going away. Gonna be hard to buy those Dreamliners now. . .
Isn't this supposed to be good news for Wall Street? I bet they will still push for more open borders and more H-1B visa workers. I used to be that people who lose jobs could go back to college and then emerge with a better job, but those days are over now that you get to compete with foreign labor in just about every sector, except school teachers.
CR,
While the formula for headline unemployment U-3 is the same wouldn't you agree that one input; NILF (not in labor force) is far more aggressively reported than in the past? Certainly the 1.4m people who were added to the NILF Jul to Aug 2007 wasn't mere noise.
Also in Sept 2007 the Participation Rate was 66.0% the same as Sept 2008 66.0%. Strangely Sept 2007 Employment-population ratio 63.0% yet Sept 2008 62.0%.
It isn't unreasonable tin-hattery to suspect manipulation of the inputs.
EHP - the employment ratio is a good way to measure the overall strength of the economy. It's conveniently population adjusted. But we are also interested in changes so we'd want to be looking at the deltas in the employment ratio. I'd be happy to see those graphed for the headline rather than the raw employment/unemployment numbers.
rob dawg
imo you would have to be tin hatie not to suspect manipulation.
obama is going to have to tell the country the whole,entire nasty truth so we can put away our tin hats(mines is a red rubbermaid)
Hah! I forgot about the Accumulator. It seems painfully clear that asymetric knowledge has ruled the markets for years now. Those offering that product were NOT trying to keep price spikes down. They KNEW they could make a killing later on. Knock out clauses and double down. That is some funny stuff.
Looks like all the crooks moved into finance.
There is a ton of underemployed as well...the country is older demographically than in 1982...so a bigger % of country is in or near retirement which could affect the stats...
My parents are in thier 60's....my dad worked in tech up until 2001 when HP laid him off. Since then he has been working as a mortgage broker. My mom has a similiar history except she shifted to a realtor in the mid nineties. Obviously both of them are now almost full stop as far as new business and thier income has fallen off a cliff.
They both feel, given thier age, there is nothing they can do so have basically entered a premature sort of involuntary retirement.
CNBC just mentioned Las Vegas Sands is in breach of covenants on it's debt. Surely, Vegas is too big to fail right? Seems to me Casinos deserve TARP money just the same as Investment Banks. Not really any different.
You know if the Fed would let me hit the window then I will single handedly take it to Vegas and "invest" it.
Funny thing is: Vegas has a business model that works.
safe_as_apartments
Last I heard the gamers are way down and the families are up.
Wifey just returned from trip to Vegas. She reports that the upscale shops are bereft of shoppers, the sales clerks are propped on their elbows but just as snotty. Food prices, low cost buffets and the like, once a staple of fare for Vegas have been displaced by higher cost food. She had $200.00 for food for two days, did no shopping and spent the entire two bills on food. She said everything was way too high.
safe_as_apartments writes:
Funny thing is: Vegas has a business model that works.
What? Providing overpriced weekends to MEW dissapating Southern Californians at the end of a 250 mile $2.50/gal drive isn't a business model that works?
Good point about the not in labor force...it should include about 50% of every graduating college class and retirees would could work and people living on disability who could work a reduced schedule. So much for "liberal arts" education. We know that this is a big reason why O-shit! was elected.
I find it utterly baffling that college graduates aren't more angry about skilled foreign labor displacing potential jobs for them. A lot of them must be living with Mom and Dad.
Funny thing is: Vegas has a business model that works.
OK, I'm taking flak for this comment. What I meant was that exploiting risk-seeking parties (gamblers) should be a viable business strategy. It's a grind, perhaps, but it should work with somewhat competent management.
OK, I'm taking flak for this comment. What I meant was that exploiting risk-seeking parties (gamblers) should be a viable business strategy. It's a grind, perhaps, but it should work with somewhat competent management. - safe_as_apartments
concerning vegas,
grandpa old oil exec just picked up a home in henderson that sold for $1.5 2years ago for 525,000, guest house, 2 pools etc...paid cash...
Now that I've learned about them, can anyone tell me what their pricing is like. Is it roughly just what it would take to buy the equivalent call options, or is it slightly cheaper because it operates like a chain of futures?
Vegas' business model is not sustainable. Just like out of control trade deficits are not sustainable, and bailouts for corporate America is not sustainable, and illegal immigration is not sustainable, and entitlements for all are not sustainable, and outsourcing is not sustainable, and shipping jobs overseas is not sustainable, and housing prices going up up up is not sustainable, and no doc mortgages are not sustainable, and leaking military secrets to hostile governments is not sustainable, and never ending wars are not sustainable, and fossil fuel-based economies are not sustainable, and a service-industry-only economy is not sustainable, and boundless legal immigration is not sustainable, and hedonism is not sustainable, and homosexuality is not sustainable, and billions in Christmas bonuses is not sustainable.
The only good thing about Vegas is that it attracts foreign tourists and gamblers, who hopefully lose more than they win.
c&c - Might be same calc. but the labour force has changed. Many more "contracted" jobs today and these do not appear in the broader number. Not renewing a contract is not the same as a lost job, even tho the result may be the same thing.
"The unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in 1982 (compared to 6.1% last month). "
Incredible. I was unemployed in 1982 (the year I graduated college), got employed in 1983, and worked continuously until 2008, when I became unemployed.
525k is too expensive even...that hell hole is going down the crapper fast. They gave every illegal and his brother a house there, which is why the foreclosure rate is the highest of anywhere. If the business model of Vegas was sustainable, then why are there so many foreclosures? Answer: it's not sustainable without cheap illegal immigrant labor. Look for the donation map at NumbersUSA | For Lower Immigration Levels - For Lower Immigration Levels
Nevada is always #1.
Vegas survives on discretionary spending money. Just the fact that the home ATM machine is closed means that they will take at least a 10% hit.
The investment banks have been hit and they got some handouts to weather the storm until O-shit! is sworn in. But the real fallout is yet to be realized in decreased tax revenues from property taxes and car sales, which make up the bulk of local government money. Obviously, starting a viscous cycle, which we know all too well in NY. Property taxes go up...retirees leave...revenue goes down...taxes go up...more people leave...revenue goes down...more people leave...etc, etc.
California is royally screwed because property taxes are capped. Even O-shit!'s economic adviser, Warren Buffet, said so when he was advising another liberal, Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Nice post DK. I've argued before that the Republicans should re-brand themselves as the "sustainability party." The Democratic party is composed of minority groups, unions, lawyers, and environmentalists. Which of these is the Republican party most likely to be able to draw in? I think it is the environmentalists.
The environmental movement today is based around two main tenets: sustainability, and localization. If I ask which political philosophy more closely embodies those two principles I am lead to the inevitable conclusion that (paleo) conservatives embody them far more than liberals.
Much of the old-school Republican polcies can be described as "sustainability" and "localization." And much of the Democrats positions can be criticized as being unsustainable and centralization. The old school Republicans were as wary of big business as they were of big government, they were the ones who were for local businesses, were in favor of environmental protections, were for localizing political power, were noninterventionists, and were fiscal conservatives. On the other hand, Democrats are the party of unchecked, unsustainable population growth, economic growth, widespread military deployments, and government spending.
But I think the Republicans are too stupid and blind with rage to take this obvious opening to split the Democratic coalition.
In terms of inside info, the big stock market fall yesterday would make you suspect somebody knew about some bad numbers. Normally the stock market jumps after an election, especially when a Dem wins. But of course the market has been totally psycho for the last 6 weeks so who knows if it means anything at all. I notice Europe responded to the monster rate cut with - a big drop.
Good point about the fall...I've always wondered about if investment houses with close ties to economic data have an advantage. Clearly, they do. The United States of Goldman Sachs always seems to have the answers.
JS: nice post yourself. I agree that sustainability should be the new platform, but I think that a new party is needed...like a Nationalist party. To hell with this President of the world crap. The world doesn't give the USA a second thought when they rape our economy and wealth.
"On the other hand, Democrats are the party of unchecked, unsustainable population growth, economic growth, widespread military deployments, and government spending." JS
Where have you been the last eight years of a republican administration, nd 12years of a republican congress? Newt Gingrich, Tom Delay, and Denny Hastert did a bang up job of unsustainable debt growth. And Greenspan as Chairman of the Fed began during Reagan's administration in 1987.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
We stopped this morning at the 0.382 Fibonacci retrace of the move from 1007.51 to 845.27; if this breaks we'll head for the 0.50 Fib support of 925 (922 is a high volume swing - needs high volume to break it and hold or it will spring)
I respect your command of the system, I think. Does this then indicate that we're midst one of the intermediate moves i.e. one of the up moves followed by one of the down moves (three up followed by the precipitous drop to the next 'resting' place?
"What? Where have you been the last 8 years you deluded nutjob?"
Don't get me wrong. I despise the accursed neo-cons. Under the neo-cons, the Republican party is as far from being the party of sustainability as can be. They're now the party of debt, economic growth, fossil fuels, environmental destruction, military intervention, centralized power, and big business. They totally suck.
So the Sands is going down. Any guesses to how long before the first casino applies to become a bank holding company? Also, GS could buy one since they both work on the principle of "we earn the money you lose".
"Note: Continued claims hit 4.7 million during the 1982 recession (not shown), although the population was much smaller then. The unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in 1982 (compared to 6.1% last month).
This suggests a weak payroll report tomorrow."
So, what you are saying is we are about half way to the bottom in unemployment, or, because real estate driven jobs don't get tracked well, we are probably much higher than 6.1% but still have a way to go. Either way that unemployment line will get bigger.
Anonymous: and yet we didn't see the Democrats put up much of a fight all of those 8 years either. They got everything that they wanted...larger government, more spending, more programs. They were pretty happy most of the time, except when Bush appointed 2 very fair and reasonable judges. Face it, your party is a bunch of liberals. You support infanticide, amnesty, open borders, entitlements, handouts, affirmative action, rights for child molesters, no death penalty, rights for terrorists, unbridled legal immigration, foreign workers in place of citizen workers, civil liberties no matter how sickening, radical environmentalism...this is not SUSTAINABLE. If I remember correctly, Billy-boy Clinton opened up the flood gates of trade with China, which basically destroyed our economy more than any one thing in all of history. I'm not defending the Republicans; my point is that they're all corrupt, and just puppets of the corporations.
Did anyone see Nader's Uncle Sam or Uncle Tom comment? So, so true. That guy's a pure genius.
"What? Providing overpriced weekends to MEW dissapating Southern Californians at the end of a 250 mile $2.50/gal drive isn't a business model that works?"
Is there a gaming index out there to short? Seems like a no brainer that LA has a bit more pain to go yet, and layoffs, restructuring, bailouts and belt tightening are not condusive to a party all night long business model.
"Just so we can remember and relive what was so great about this blog in the 1st place."
Yeah, economics and sustainability. Must review the past to understand why we are currently looking down into the chasm of indentured debt servitude. And to figure out how to avoid falling so the USA can have a economically sustainable future.
wow, did he really defenestrate himself? i didn't think we would see that because people today (in general) feel less personally accountable and typically blame other people or market conditions for their failure. we should have a new name for when they jump themselves instead of being forcefully tossed. maybe "autofenestrate"
"threetorches said: DK, your blathersome and ill-informed posts have just become unsustainable.
Your profanity-laced and juvenile comments have no power here ... be thou gone, bitter troll."
Well, "threetorches", I will continue to speak my mind until I die trying to. Not even O-shit!'s civilian military force will stop me without a fight. It's called FREEDOM OF SPEECH YOU ASSHOLE. I CAN SAY ANYTHING THAT I WANT, EVEN IF YOU DON'T LIKE IT. STOP BEING A WEAK MAN AND GROW SOME BALLS.
EHP, I don't know what the margin for this product type is nor how highly leveraged. lots of folks getting their faces ripped off though. this is a good summary of the mechanics of Accumulators -
"On the other hand, Democrats are the party of unchecked, unsustainable population growth, economic growth, widespread military deployments, and government spending."
Riiiighhhhhttt...
This is why when the CBO compared the policies of Obama and McCain Obama came out with LESS deficit spending than McCain.
Publishing. About five years ago, the major publishers discovered they could get their books done in India very cheaply, and though I held on as long as possible, the business can't compete with one that pays their people $300/month.
PCA, thanks for the reply. I don't trade, but from what you say you seem to imply that support levels will be a sign of the next move up. Again, your 'I won't go long.' comment leaves volumes indicated that you share my pessimism for the longer term, in that a trend is a trend until it is broken and the trend is down.
Barley has a good point about how the shift from employee to contractor affects the unemployment stats. The employment survey has a similar bias in the sense that a 'consultant' might say they are employed even if they don't have work at the exact survey moment.
Another aspect of the 'contracting' meme is the number of undocumented workers for whom job loss is not noted because their jobs never existed officially.
Looking at the 1982 comparison, the relative impact on the economy might also be mediated by the growth of two-income families.
Anonymous: and yet we didn't see the Democrats put up much of a fight all of those 8 years either. They got everything that they wanted...larger government, more spending, more programs.
Nobody in 2005 was screaming about the fact that we were giving mortgage loans to anything with a pulse. People who did were dismissed as crazy.
Both parties sleep in the same bed with Wall Street every night.
This is not a conservative vs. liberal issue. This is not a democrat vs. republican issue. This is not a big government vs. small government issue.
This is a good government vs. bad government issue.
You people are unbelievable- so willing to bend over and get raped by the liberals who are just taking the place of the neo-cons. It's just "smoother" with O-shit doing it, so it's preferable.
FOX news just slapped Palin with a pretty Damning report.
1. She is a "shopoholic"
2. She never listened to her handlers and PR people.
3. Horrible Temper.
Sources were people inside the McCain campaign.
You will find a significant following for the U6 (all in marginally attached, involuntary part time etc IIRC) series rather than U3 (the headline unemployment rate).
DK writes:
You people are unbelievable- so willing to bend over and get raped by the liberals who are just taking the place of the neo-cons. It's just "smoother" with O-shit doing it, so it's preferable.
"EvilHenryPaulson writes:
DK,
Who are you calling "you people"?"
The people who say to look the other way, forget about it...well, we did the same thing 8 years ago, and it didn't work then, and it won't work with O-shit! running the show.
Re DK's posts...killfile or greasemonkey works well.
Probably an embittered ex-mortgage or RE broker, now out of work. Whatever. Unfortunate that he has zero respect for our host, CR.
Take apart a clock and identify the individual parts, it is no longer a clock. But when combined as a whole, it is a clock. The United States too, are the sum of all its' parts. Thats what makes the USA great. We work well together as one; united. Republican divisiveness of fear to divide and conquer only wins by breaking apart the whole into bits and pieces. This time around, they failed. They can either join us as a whole or live as an angry isolationist cult.
DK join us as an articulate and well-informed commentor. Or swirl down into the dark well of anger. Your choice.
DK writes: You people are unbelievable- so willing to bend over and get raped by the liberals who are just taking the place of the neo-cons.
And who in their right mind would listen to an alternative you present? You're a ranting lunatic that most people would find indistinguishable from a neocon. You don't even have a better sales pitch, neocons at least support a universalist image of citizenship, unlike you, ya racist yob. Great, you represent the true face of American white intolerance.
Who are you gonna convince to follow you? Everyone who doesn't agree with you is already an enemy of the state, retard, pussy, nigra-lover, etc.
And who in their right mind would listen to an alternative you present? You're a ranting lunatic that most people would find indistinguishable from a neocon. You don't even have a better sales pitch, neocons at least support a universalist image of citizenship, unlike you, ya racist yob. Great, you represent the true face of American white intolerance.
Who are you gonna convince to follow you? Everyone who doesn't agree with you is already an enemy of the state, retard, pussy, nigra-lover, etc.
"The unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in 1982 (compared to 6.1% last month). "
Have we not changed the calculation formula?
crispy&cole | Homepage | 11.06.08 - 9:21 am | #
The demographics have changed significantly since 1982. Back then the economy had to accomidate a rapidly increasing labor force. Women were still very much in the process of moving into the labor force. Now that process is complete, it is fully expected that women will be working in the paid workforce just as much as men are. That was not true in 82. Second in 1982, the peak of the baby boom (1958) was turning 24, and thus just getting out of college and joining the workforce. One very revealing picture of this is to plot the year over year job growth vs. the unemployment rate (data available in a easy to graph form at the St Louis Fed). CR if you are reading the comments you might want to post that picture.
Now we have baby boomers starting to retire, this takes pressure off the need to create jobs, and all things being equal, will result in a lower UI rate. This is why I think that the UI rate will not get as high as it was back in 74 or 83, even though by many other measures, this could be a worse recession.
Second while I agree with all your reasons why unemployment won't spike compared to 1982 I think there's a countervailing trend that will wipe all your good reasons out and then some. Corporations have less than zero loyalty to employees. Since 1982 the concept of holding on to good workers through rough patches has been scoured from the American business management mindset. We are talking 2008 where research engineers are cost centers and JIT applies to staffing as well as production elements.
What's up with all the Nationalists on this thread? Thanks for the reasonable folks responding, but man-o-man what look what this country has come to.
Attention DK and assorted librul-haters: Your kind has proven to be a clear and present danger to the health of any nation who follows your poisonous instincts. America fought WWII against "Nationalists" and many of us know exactly where your "ideas" would take us. Yes we were Con-ned by the right-wing again these past 8 years, but the danger has become more clear and your support is growing thin.
If you think that this has nothing to do with the economy, you're wrong. As soon as vocal opposition is removed, they will do what they want. Money for AIDS in Africa? Amnesty for illegals? Infanticide. You bet.
Every other Nation on Earth gets to be nationalist except for the USA? Have you ever spoken to a Canadian or a Chinese person. They're extremely proud and Nationalist to the core. We need Nationalism, not your brand of Fascism. Notice that I'm not trying to silence you, and so many of you are trying to silence me. THAT IS FASCISM. GET IT?
JR...you're a weak man. That's what this country has come to. A Nation of weak men.
The 1st Amendment protects people who engage in offensive speech for a reason. Read it sometime. We have tolerated the liberal hate for wars and the US military for decades, just as you are expected to tolerate our hate for what you value...hedonism, infanticide, leniency for criminals, rights for terrorists, atheism, materialism, communism, socialism, anti-Christianity, anti-Judaism, anti-family, porn.
Also, true conservatives did not destroy this country. True conservatives were silenced by the liberals though diversity training and thought modification, which created a branch of liberal "conservatives" (neocons) to form with no moral foundation whatsoever. They were simply imitating the competition.
Well, since Wal-mart saves us so much, then we should be able to handle the worst recession since the Great Depression.
"Wal-Mart's relatively strong sales can be attributed to the retailer's decision to stick with its value message. For example, Wal-Mart has been airing television commercials that discuss the ways a family of four can save about $700 a year by shopping for groceries at Wal-Mart."
You saved my Mommy and Daddy $700 last year, but my Daddy lost his job when you shipped it to China, so now we don't have any money to spend at your store for Christmas.
Sounds like time for another stimulus check before Christmas...
Are illegal aliens counted in the unemployment numbers?
I would think that families in the upper middle class would first cut back on any hired help...house cleaners, gardeners, nannies (if possible), etc. and I'm curious if these folks are eligible for unemployement benefits?
To repeat Rob Dawg, gratz on the Bloomberg appearance. mp spotted it and posted it here this morning.
Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 11.06.08 - 12:04 pm | #
Thanks, can't say that I saw it, although I did talk to a B'berg reporter a few days ago, so not surprised about it. Part of my job is to talk to the press types. I don't keep a file of my clippings though (although our media relations guy does).
Dawg,
You are right on the less loyalty issue, but I think that takes the form of having more contractors vs. employees, so some of that unemployment might be hidden. In either case I think we are in agreement that this is going to be one heck of an ugly and long lasting recession, and in many ways worse than the official figures like Unemployment will reflect.
hah!
Looks like a bull market.
The tide continues to roll on out showing who is swimming naked.
Those charts say it all...I would expect some bad numbers tommorow (which of course is "priced in")
Turd!
1983 was a wonderful year.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
It's morning in America
"The unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in 1982 (compared to 6.1% last month). "
Have we not changed the calculation formula?
Can anyone add some insights (I'm without a fund of knowledge, but am interested observer) as to how the Wolf Wave Five thing is playing out here? Is this a harbinger of a move down within that wave?
CR - para 2, missing noun. Bear market on nouns.
Disclosure, long on deictic markers.
CC
OK so New York State only had 3 weeks of payments left recently. Line up at Pelosi's office. She will be the new Hank.
Now imagine all the 'consultants' and part-time workers.
Ben/Hank better act quick. Or do they care any more now that Obama gets to clean up?
My guess is that the stock market will rally. Bad news doesn't matter. We have our man in the White House. Stimulus package is guaranteed, only size being debated.
Note: Continued claims hit 4.7 million during the 1982 recession (not shown), although the population was much smaller then.
I think that would be equivalent to about 6 million claims today.
Did you see that 40 cent upspike in silver prices in a half hour?
Not sure if it had to do with employment report. It seems somebody is accumulating.
....geeze, it sucks to be employed...er, UNemployed...and I bet most of this burg is still underwater..
crispy&cole, no - the headline unemployment number is calculated the exact same way.
Best to all.
Las Vegas Sands may default on loans:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3LkEU5mYSNw&refer=home
Thanks...I am spending too much time on the conspiracy blogs (shadow stats,etc..)
Gold spiked up $18.
Needn't worry c&c, headline UER will be 10% by 2010 (ten by ten is my new slogan)
I wonder who holds those LVS loans
OK so New York State only had 3 weeks of payments left recently. Line up at Pelosi's office. She will be the new Hank.
"Print it and they will come."
Wolfe Wave
I first picked up on the term when reading Mish. He seems to think this is where we are, Wave 5 of 3 up.
I watch but don't trade. I think we're headed to deeper water and lower markets. I would appreciate 'hearing' from the technicians or Elliot Wave adherents about this subject.
Glod does have a bit of a stiffy this morning. A little strange considering dollar strength.
safe_as_apartments Market Timing and Price Forecast:
On the heels of economic news favoring increased hoopajoop, the SPX will gain 78.7 points today.
We stopped this morning at the 0.382 Fibonacci retrace of the move from 1007.51 to 845.27; if this breaks we'll head for the 0.50 Fib support of 925 (922 is a high volume swing - needs high volume to break it and hold or it will spring)
We're going up now.
All is well.
We've talked about the monkey-business involved in the bond term swaps, like 10-30yr
Turns out Clarium, run by Paypal co-founder Peter Thiel, had 81% of its $5.2bn in assets in betting on spreads
The leverage was 4.4:1, so Clarium would have been responsible for $18.5bn in swaps + bonds. That could explain some things
For historical purposes, the unemployment numbers really should be adjusted to the population or the working-age population. When you consider there are many more people, we're not really worse than 1991 - yet.
RE prices continue to drop and I expect a more rapid decline (plunge) soon .
re: LVS,
Haha, I am happy. My forecast has been accurate, and Adelson will lose the one thing he cares more about than being a d**k
RE: CNBC just announced that GM will announce tomorrow a suspension of new model development. I'll be listening.
Fair Economist,
a simple employment ratio is the best gauge in my opinion. Just because x# of people are not in the work force, or labour pool, does not mean that production does not need to support them
Volker,
Probably everything other than their smaller/cheaper cars and the volt. They've already stopped the Tahoe/Suburban, and I think GMC truck updates. What's left is stuff like the corvette or camaro
Long term trend for USD-Yen still looks grim for consumer electronic sales ( or anything else imported in Yen ).
Citigroup, Goldman Said to Begin Eliminating Jobs (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
so throwing money isnt working?
GM cannot suspend new model development. Their $25b in loans is from DOE and is to meet new CAFE fleet standards. A big part of that us hybrid. GM stops that and poof - no loans.
Anyone else think Boeing machinist union won a pyric victory? The have a better contract (pending) but now oil is down, capacity is shrinking and new loans for capital equipment are going away. Gonna be hard to buy those Dreamliners now. . .
Isn't this supposed to be good news for Wall Street? I bet they will still push for more open borders and more H-1B visa workers. I used to be that people who lose jobs could go back to college and then emerge with a better job, but those days are over now that you get to compete with foreign labor in just about every sector, except school teachers.
Is it too late to go long unemployment futures?
Meredith Whitney calls for a $20 Wells Fargo. Says estimates on financials are still too high
Video - CNBC.com
interesting times.
you know that might be an interesting thing.seems to be the only thing going up.
Boeing machinists??? You mean to imply that those jobs haven't been shipped off to China yet? Now there's some positive thinking.
CR,
Is it possible to do a unemployment rate-DOW graph?
more highly leveraged derivative fun.
revenge of the Accumulator in the asian markets.
Asian Investors 'Accumulate' Big Losses on Risky Contracts - WSJ.com
Well that was a most interesting way to start the day.
It's doing that funny vertical thing again.
EHP: guess we don't need as many engineers as we thought
rdb:re vertical thing
guess they are happy about unemployment stats.
GM has been eating it's seed corn for years. I don't see how eating it faster will help much.
CR,
While the formula for headline unemployment U-3 is the same wouldn't you agree that one input; NILF (not in labor force) is far more aggressively reported than in the past? Certainly the 1.4m people who were added to the NILF Jul to Aug 2007 wasn't mere noise.
Also in Sept 2007 the Participation Rate was 66.0% the same as Sept 2008 66.0%. Strangely Sept 2007 Employment-population ratio 63.0% yet Sept 2008 62.0%.
It isn't unreasonable tin-hattery to suspect manipulation of the inputs.
Rob Dawg--genau!
EHP - the employment ratio is a good way to measure the overall strength of the economy. It's conveniently population adjusted. But we are also interested in changes so we'd want to be looking at the deltas in the employment ratio. I'd be happy to see those graphed for the headline rather than the raw employment/unemployment numbers.
rob dawg
imo you would have to be tin hatie not to suspect manipulation.
obama is going to have to tell the country the whole,entire nasty truth so we can put away our tin hats(mines is a red rubbermaid)
Hah! I forgot about the Accumulator. It seems painfully clear that asymetric knowledge has ruled the markets for years now. Those offering that product were NOT trying to keep price spikes down. They KNEW they could make a killing later on. Knock out clauses and double down. That is some funny stuff.
Looks like all the crooks moved into finance.
There is a ton of underemployed as well...the country is older demographically than in 1982...so a bigger % of country is in or near retirement which could affect the stats...
My parents are in thier 60's....my dad worked in tech up until 2001 when HP laid him off. Since then he has been working as a mortgage broker. My mom has a similiar history except she shifted to a realtor in the mid nineties. Obviously both of them are now almost full stop as far as new business and thier income has fallen off a cliff.
They both feel, given thier age, there is nothing they can do so have basically entered a premature sort of involuntary retirement.
Tons of these stories out there.
CSCO - "No plans for layoffs"
LOL! Of course not. Sugar coating is no longer necessary. It's firings.
CNBC just mentioned Las Vegas Sands is in breach of covenants on it's debt. Surely, Vegas is too big to fail right? Seems to me Casinos deserve TARP money just the same as Investment Banks. Not really any different.
You know if the Fed would let me hit the window then I will single handedly take it to Vegas and "invest" it.
Funny thing is: Vegas has a business model that works.
"Funny thing is: Vegas has a business model that works."
Not in a depression.
Funny thing is: Vegas has a business model that works.
safe_as_apartments | 11.06.08 - 10:09 am | #
But who would want to live there ?
Funny thing is: Vegas has a business model that works.
safe_as_apartments
Last I heard the gamers are way down and the families are up.
Wifey just returned from trip to Vegas. She reports that the upscale shops are bereft of shoppers, the sales clerks are propped on their elbows but just as snotty. Food prices, low cost buffets and the like, once a staple of fare for Vegas have been displaced by higher cost food. She had $200.00 for food for two days, did no shopping and spent the entire two bills on food. She said everything was way too high.
Ouch.
safe_as_apartments writes:
Funny thing is: Vegas has a business model that works.
What? Providing overpriced weekends to MEW dissapating Southern Californians at the end of a 250 mile $2.50/gal drive isn't a business model that works?
Good point about the not in labor force...it should include about 50% of every graduating college class and retirees would could work and people living on disability who could work a reduced schedule. So much for "liberal arts" education. We know that this is a big reason why O-shit! was elected.
I find it utterly baffling that college graduates aren't more angry about skilled foreign labor displacing potential jobs for them. A lot of them must be living with Mom and Dad.
Funny thing is: Vegas has a business model that works.
OK, I'm taking flak for this comment. What I meant was that exploiting risk-seeking parties (gamblers) should be a viable business strategy. It's a grind, perhaps, but it should work with somewhat competent management.
safe_as_apartments writes:
What I meant was that exploiting risk-seeking parties (gamblers) should be a viable business strategy.
Well, it's worked for Wall Street.
OK, I'm taking flak for this comment. What I meant was that exploiting risk-seeking parties (gamblers) should be a viable business strategy. It's a grind, perhaps, but it should work with somewhat competent management. - safe_as_apartments
Yeah, like that worked for Lehman Brothers.
Damn you Corey!
concerning vegas,
grandpa old oil exec just picked up a home in henderson that sold for $1.5 2years ago for 525,000, guest house, 2 pools etc...paid cash...
older people like the dry heat...
Yeah, like that worked for Lehman Brothers.
But gambling games are usually (accurately) mathematically modeled.
This is not the same for complex instruments derived from economic processes.
serf Alan Greenspend posted about accumulators.
Now that I've learned about them, can anyone tell me what their pricing is like. Is it roughly just what it would take to buy the equivalent call options, or is it slightly cheaper because it operates like a chain of futures?
Vegas' business model is not sustainable. Just like out of control trade deficits are not sustainable, and bailouts for corporate America is not sustainable, and illegal immigration is not sustainable, and entitlements for all are not sustainable, and outsourcing is not sustainable, and shipping jobs overseas is not sustainable, and housing prices going up up up is not sustainable, and no doc mortgages are not sustainable, and leaking military secrets to hostile governments is not sustainable, and never ending wars are not sustainable, and fossil fuel-based economies are not sustainable, and a service-industry-only economy is not sustainable, and boundless legal immigration is not sustainable, and hedonism is not sustainable, and homosexuality is not sustainable, and billions in Christmas bonuses is not sustainable.
The only good thing about Vegas is that it attracts foreign tourists and gamblers, who hopefully lose more than they win.
10:18 exactly on two gooduns.
Payroll: -273,000
book it Dan-O
Barley,
That means GS nailed it with the -250-300k call yesterday. Maybe they do get the inside information....
c&c - Might be same calc. but the labour force has changed. Many more "contracted" jobs today and these do not appear in the broader number. Not renewing a contract is not the same as a lost job, even tho the result may be the same thing.
I suppose the came can be said for job creation.
and hedonism is not sustainable,... - DK
Excuse me sir? Hedonism is its own reward. If you think hedonism is unsustainable then you aren't doing it right or enough (or both).
"The unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in 1982 (compared to 6.1% last month). "
Incredible. I was unemployed in 1982 (the year I graduated college), got employed in 1983, and worked continuously until 2008, when I became unemployed.
As goes merciless, so goes America.
525k is too expensive even...that hell hole is going down the crapper fast. They gave every illegal and his brother a house there, which is why the foreclosure rate is the highest of anywhere. If the business model of Vegas was sustainable, then why are there so many foreclosures? Answer: it's not sustainable without cheap illegal immigrant labor. Look for the donation map at NumbersUSA | For Lower Immigration Levels - For Lower Immigration Levels
Nevada is always #1.
Vegas survives on discretionary spending money. Just the fact that the home ATM machine is closed means that they will take at least a 10% hit.
The investment banks have been hit and they got some handouts to weather the storm until O-shit! is sworn in. But the real fallout is yet to be realized in decreased tax revenues from property taxes and car sales, which make up the bulk of local government money. Obviously, starting a viscous cycle, which we know all too well in NY. Property taxes go up...retirees leave...revenue goes down...taxes go up...more people leave...revenue goes down...more people leave...etc, etc.
California is royally screwed because property taxes are capped. Even O-shit!'s economic adviser, Warren Buffet, said so when he was advising another liberal, Arnold Schwarzenegger.
As goes merciless, so goes America.
merciless | 11.06.08 - 10:31 am | #
Sorry to hear that.
What industry kept you employeed for that long ?
Tinhatters are out in full force on CNBC
today touting their wares. SOS. No need to wear mine.
"Hedonism is the philosophy that pleasure is of ultimate importance, the most important pursuit."
Well, having kids ain't exactly hedonism then, unless you abort them. O-shit! will help with that.
That's my point.
[Barley writes:
Payroll: -273,000]
Sounds reasonable. How 'bout the rate? A substantial spike there might ruffle a few feathers, no?
Nice post DK. I've argued before that the Republicans should re-brand themselves as the "sustainability party." The Democratic party is composed of minority groups, unions, lawyers, and environmentalists. Which of these is the Republican party most likely to be able to draw in? I think it is the environmentalists.
The environmental movement today is based around two main tenets: sustainability, and localization. If I ask which political philosophy more closely embodies those two principles I am lead to the inevitable conclusion that (paleo) conservatives embody them far more than liberals.
Much of the old-school Republican polcies can be described as "sustainability" and "localization." And much of the Democrats positions can be criticized as being unsustainable and centralization. The old school Republicans were as wary of big business as they were of big government, they were the ones who were for local businesses, were in favor of environmental protections, were for localizing political power, were noninterventionists, and were fiscal conservatives. On the other hand, Democrats are the party of unchecked, unsustainable population growth, economic growth, widespread military deployments, and government spending.
But I think the Republicans are too stupid and blind with rage to take this obvious opening to split the Democratic coalition.
In terms of inside info, the big stock market fall yesterday would make you suspect somebody knew about some bad numbers. Normally the stock market jumps after an election, especially when a Dem wins. But of course the market has been totally psycho for the last 6 weeks so who knows if it means anything at all. I notice Europe responded to the monster rate cut with - a big drop.
O'momma has his work cut out for him, that's for sure..
It's mourning in America?
Democrats are the party of unchecked, unsustainable population growth, economic growth, widespread military deployments, and government spending
What? Where have you been for the last 8 years you deluded nutjob?
Good point about the fall...I've always wondered about if investment houses with close ties to economic data have an advantage. Clearly, they do. The United States of Goldman Sachs always seems to have the answers.
JS: nice post yourself. I agree that sustainability should be the new platform, but I think that a new party is needed...like a Nationalist party. To hell with this President of the world crap. The world doesn't give the USA a second thought when they rape our economy and wealth.
The Nationalist Party- for sustainability.
The slosh report is boggling my little mind... (check off the TIO and TAF boxes then click on the "Run Report" button)
The Slosh Report
And the overnight rate holds the line at 23 bps of the 100 bps target...
Federal Funds Data
While the 30 day CP spread collapsed to 382 bps
FRB Commercial Paper
. The world doesn't give the USA a second thought when they rape our economy and wealth.
What? Where have you been the last 8 years you deluded nutjob?
DX looks like it is in VTAC...
INO Equities Stocks Indexes - U.S $ INDEX (NYBOT:DX) Price Chart and Quote
Hey DK why don't you find something else cute to call Obama, because you sound totally fucked up.
"On the other hand, Democrats are the party of unchecked, unsustainable population growth, economic growth, widespread military deployments, and government spending." JS
Where have you been the last eight years of a republican administration, nd 12years of a republican congress? Newt Gingrich, Tom Delay, and Denny Hastert did a bang up job of unsustainable debt growth. And Greenspan as Chairman of the Fed began during Reagan's administration in 1987.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
We stopped this morning at the 0.382 Fibonacci retrace of the move from 1007.51 to 845.27; if this breaks we'll head for the 0.50 Fib support of 925 (922 is a high volume swing - needs high volume to break it and hold or it will spring)
I respect your command of the system, I think. Does this then indicate that we're midst one of the intermediate moves i.e. one of the up moves followed by one of the down moves (three up followed by the precipitous drop to the next 'resting' place?
"What? Where have you been the last 8 years you deluded nutjob?"
Don't get me wrong. I despise the accursed neo-cons. Under the neo-cons, the Republican party is as far from being the party of sustainability as can be. They're now the party of debt, economic growth, fossil fuels, environmental destruction, military intervention, centralized power, and big business. They totally suck.
People, people, people. The election is over. Can't we please leave the snark and defenses alone for at least a week??? Please.
Just so we can remember and relive what was so great about this blog in the 1st place.
Whole Foods net income down 96% for the quarter
His Job at Bear Gone, Mr. Fox Chose Suicide - WSJ.com
ex-Bear Sterns supervisor defenestrated himself, the one not hired by the Federal Reserve btw
DK, your blathersome and ill-informed posts have just become unsustainable.
Your profanity-laced and juvenile comments have no power here ... be thou gone, bitter troll.
/ killfiles troll /
So the Sands is going down. Any guesses to how long before the first casino applies to become a bank holding company? Also, GS could buy one since they both work on the principle of "we earn the money you lose".
"Note: Continued claims hit 4.7 million during the 1982 recession (not shown), although the population was much smaller then. The unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in 1982 (compared to 6.1% last month).
This suggests a weak payroll report tomorrow."
So, what you are saying is we are about half way to the bottom in unemployment, or, because real estate driven jobs don't get tracked well, we are probably much higher than 6.1% but still have a way to go. Either way that unemployment line will get bigger.
EHP, still there about accumulators?
Le Tout Hong Kong is talking about them, but as you may have gathered, google only returns Chinese.
Earlier today:
immobilienblasen: The "Accumulator".......
May be of use.
What's with EEV?
Anonymous: and yet we didn't see the Democrats put up much of a fight all of those 8 years either. They got everything that they wanted...larger government, more spending, more programs. They were pretty happy most of the time, except when Bush appointed 2 very fair and reasonable judges. Face it, your party is a bunch of liberals. You support infanticide, amnesty, open borders, entitlements, handouts, affirmative action, rights for child molesters, no death penalty, rights for terrorists, unbridled legal immigration, foreign workers in place of citizen workers, civil liberties no matter how sickening, radical environmentalism...this is not SUSTAINABLE. If I remember correctly, Billy-boy Clinton opened up the flood gates of trade with China, which basically destroyed our economy more than any one thing in all of history. I'm not defending the Republicans; my point is that they're all corrupt, and just puppets of the corporations.
Did anyone see Nader's Uncle Sam or Uncle Tom comment? So, so true. That guy's a pure genius.
Thanks Anak for the accumulator link.
@Rob Dawg
"What? Providing overpriced weekends to MEW dissapating Southern Californians at the end of a 250 mile $2.50/gal drive isn't a business model that works?"
Is there a gaming index out there to short? Seems like a no brainer that LA has a bit more pain to go yet, and layoffs, restructuring, bailouts and belt tightening are not condusive to a party all night long business model.
Volker the Viking,
I'm selling some SDS, covering SPY short around here. SPX 922-925 should provide support - possibly a spring. But I won't go long.
"Just so we can remember and relive what was so great about this blog in the 1st place."
Yeah, economics and sustainability. Must review the past to understand why we are currently looking down into the chasm of indentured debt servitude. And to figure out how to avoid falling so the USA can have a economically sustainable future.
Palin/Romney '012!
It's never too late to try and undo this failed Obama Administration.
Seriously, can we all move on now? I do so solemnly promise.
[Comrade Clueless Dufus writes:
People, people, people. The election is over]
I agree. Give it a rest already.
EHP
wow, did he really defenestrate himself? i didn't think we would see that because people today (in general) feel less personally accountable and typically blame other people or market conditions for their failure. we should have a new name for when they jump themselves instead of being forcefully tossed. maybe "autofenestrate"
threetorches +1!
"threetorches said: DK, your blathersome and ill-informed posts have just become unsustainable.
Your profanity-laced and juvenile comments have no power here ... be thou gone, bitter troll."
Well, "threetorches", I will continue to speak my mind until I die trying to. Not even O-shit!'s civilian military force will stop me without a fight. It's called FREEDOM OF SPEECH YOU ASSHOLE. I CAN SAY ANYTHING THAT I WANT, EVEN IF YOU DON'T LIKE IT. STOP BEING A WEAK MAN AND GROW SOME BALLS.
Oh what a surprise!!!
Blackstone Has Quarterly Loss on Asset Writedowns
Blackstone Has Quarterly Loss on Asset Writedowns (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
"Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind."
"Nationalism, on my opinion, is nothing more than an idealistic rationalization for militarism and aggression."
Two quotes from Einstein to address the person calling for the "Nationalist" party. Be gone.
EHP, I don't know what the margin for this product type is nor how highly leveraged. lots of folks getting their faces ripped off though. this is a good summary of the mechanics of Accumulators -
Accumulator (structured product) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"On the other hand, Democrats are the party of unchecked, unsustainable population growth, economic growth, widespread military deployments, and government spending."
Riiiighhhhhttt...
This is why when the CBO compared the policies of Obama and McCain Obama came out with LESS deficit spending than McCain.
What industry kept you employed for that long?
Publishing. About five years ago, the major publishers discovered they could get their books done in India very cheaply, and though I held on as long as possible, the business can't compete with one that pays their people $300/month.
Oh, well. Thanks for asking.
PCA, thanks for the reply. I don't trade, but from what you say you seem to imply that support levels will be a sign of the next move up. Again, your 'I won't go long.' comment leaves volumes indicated that you share my pessimism for the longer term, in that a trend is a trend until it is broken and the trend is down.
Barley has a good point about how the shift from employee to contractor affects the unemployment stats. The employment survey has a similar bias in the sense that a 'consultant' might say they are employed even if they don't have work at the exact survey moment.
Another aspect of the 'contracting' meme is the number of undocumented workers for whom job loss is not noted because their jobs never existed officially.
Looking at the 1982 comparison, the relative impact on the economy might also be mediated by the growth of two-income families.
Anonymous: and yet we didn't see the Democrats put up much of a fight all of those 8 years either. They got everything that they wanted...larger government, more spending, more programs.
Nobody in 2005 was screaming about the fact that we were giving mortgage loans to anything with a pulse. People who did were dismissed as crazy.
Both parties sleep in the same bed with Wall Street every night.
This is not a conservative vs. liberal issue. This is not a democrat vs. republican issue. This is not a big government vs. small government issue.
This is a good government vs. bad government issue.
The labels are meaningless here.
You people are unbelievable- so willing to bend over and get raped by the liberals who are just taking the place of the neo-cons. It's just "smoother" with O-shit doing it, so it's preferable.
Dawg
FOX news just slapped Palin with a pretty Damning report.
1. She is a "shopoholic"
2. She never listened to her handlers and PR people.
3. Horrible Temper.
Sources were people inside the McCain campaign.
tumbril,
You will find a significant following for the U6 (all in marginally attached, involuntary part time etc IIRC) series rather than U3 (the headline unemployment rate).
DK,
Who are you calling "you people"?
DK writes:
You people are unbelievable- so willing to bend over and get raped by the liberals who are just taking the place of the neo-cons. It's just "smoother" with O-shit doing it, so it's preferable.
bigot
I think DK needs a time out.
tumbril driver rew: so, so true.
It's nice to see that there are a few smart people here.
DK,
There are many smart people here, that is why most of them are calling bullsh!t - how about more data supporting your bitter whining rants?
YouTube - sarah palin pwned! best prank call ever!
please, forgive me
I know! Obama can start bombing Yugoslavia! That's what the last Democrat did when times got tough!
How about Sudan? Biden said he was for it.
"EvilHenryPaulson writes:
DK,
Who are you calling "you people"?"
The people who say to look the other way, forget about it...well, we did the same thing 8 years ago, and it didn't work then, and it won't work with O-shit! running the show.
Don't Freak, how about we use the air force to demolish abandoned neighborhoods in this country?
Looks like the RNC astroturfers are now marginally attached to the labor force...
New Thread
Re DK's posts...killfile or greasemonkey works well.
Probably an embittered ex-mortgage or RE broker, now out of work. Whatever. Unfortunate that he has zero respect for our host, CR.
"I know! Obama can start bombing Yugoslavia! That's what the last Democrat did when times got tough!
How about Sudan? Biden said he was for it."
It would be fitting for O-shit! to bomb Yugoslavia because they don't like his Muslim friends much there.
Re DK's posts...killfile or greasemonkey works well.
Haloscan has killfiles? Oh my.... must go find out about this....
Take apart a clock and identify the individual parts, it is no longer a clock. But when combined as a whole, it is a clock. The United States too, are the sum of all its' parts. Thats what makes the USA great. We work well together as one; united. Republican divisiveness of fear to divide and conquer only wins by breaking apart the whole into bits and pieces. This time around, they failed. They can either join us as a whole or live as an angry isolationist cult.
DK join us as an articulate and well-informed commentor. Or swirl down into the dark well of anger. Your choice.
DK
Yes there are some smart people here.
You aren't one of them. The noise one gives off is inversely proportional to one's IQ.
are they dimly aware of the sense of unease in the air...you better watch out...the dogs are dead
****NEW POST****
//END BANTER
RNC = DNC = ivy elitists
These graphs were not prepared by MTVs 'Pimp My Graph." I was expecting a purple background with gold accents today.
DK writes:
You people are unbelievable- so willing to bend over and get raped by the liberals who are just taking the place of the neo-cons.
And who in their right mind would listen to an alternative you present? You're a ranting lunatic that most people would find indistinguishable from a neocon. You don't even have a better sales pitch, neocons at least support a universalist image of citizenship, unlike you, ya racist yob. Great, you represent the true face of American white intolerance.
Who are you gonna convince to follow you? Everyone who doesn't agree with you is already an enemy of the state, retard, pussy, nigra-lover, etc.
Byzantine_Ruins writes:
And who in their right mind would listen to an alternative you present? You're a ranting lunatic that most people would find indistinguishable from a neocon. You don't even have a better sales pitch, neocons at least support a universalist image of citizenship, unlike you, ya racist yob. Great, you represent the true face of American white intolerance.
Who are you gonna convince to follow you? Everyone who doesn't agree with you is already an enemy of the state, retard, pussy, nigra-lover, etc.
Thank you!
fake seb's world writes:
Hey DK why don't you find something else cute to call Obama, because you sound totally [eff'd] up.
We could call him BOB
(B[arock] O'B[ama])
Today I learned the word 'yob.'
It's an awesome word.
I shall work it in.
Today I learned the word 'yob.'
It's bigger than any American should know, I warrant.
Ask a Brit, but listen to a colonial.
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
Today I learned the word 'yob.'
It's an awesome word.
Is that like "yumpin yimminy, I got a yob?" (rim shot)
"The unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in 1982 (compared to 6.1% last month). "
Have we not changed the calculation formula?
crispy&cole | Homepage | 11.06.08 - 9:21 am | #
The demographics have changed significantly since 1982. Back then the economy had to accomidate a rapidly increasing labor force. Women were still very much in the process of moving into the labor force. Now that process is complete, it is fully expected that women will be working in the paid workforce just as much as men are. That was not true in 82. Second in 1982, the peak of the baby boom (1958) was turning 24, and thus just getting out of college and joining the workforce. One very revealing picture of this is to plot the year over year job growth vs. the unemployment rate (data available in a easy to graph form at the St Louis Fed). CR if you are reading the comments you might want to post that picture.
Now we have baby boomers starting to retire, this takes pressure off the need to create jobs, and all things being equal, will result in a lower UI rate. This is why I think that the UI rate will not get as high as it was back in 74 or 83, even though by many other measures, this could be a worse recession.
PCA,
922 is a high volume swing - needs high volume to break it and hold or it will spring
We've been sitting right on 922 for a bit now after a steady decline. Enough to make a newbie to TA like me at least...wonder.
Though I suspect it might be related to how many traders think TA works...
And if enough do, maybe it does.
Dirk,
First, kudos for the Bloomberg mention.
Second while I agree with all your reasons why unemployment won't spike compared to 1982 I think there's a countervailing trend that will wipe all your good reasons out and then some. Corporations have less than zero loyalty to employees. Since 1982 the concept of holding on to good workers through rough patches has been scoured from the American business management mindset. We are talking 2008 where research engineers are cost centers and JIT applies to staffing as well as production elements.
Dirk van Dijk writes:
To repeat Rob Dawg, gratz on the Bloomberg appearance. mp spotted it and posted it here this morning.
Great Post JS (at 10:35 a.m.)
Was it Sam Frances who called the Republicans "the stupid party," and the Democrates "the evil party?"
Bush the younger managed to reverse this order, making the Republicans evil, and the Democrates look stupid.
Maybe Obama will restore the old order.
Posts like yours and DK's make me think that all is not lost.
What's up with all the Nationalists on this thread? Thanks for the reasonable folks responding, but man-o-man what look what this country has come to.
Attention DK and assorted librul-haters: Your kind has proven to be a clear and present danger to the health of any nation who follows your poisonous instincts. America fought WWII against "Nationalists" and many of us know exactly where your "ideas" would take us. Yes we were Con-ned by the right-wing again these past 8 years, but the danger has become more clear and your support is growing thin.
This will be the first move that the new administration makes- to take away the free speech rights of conservative radio. It's already in the works.
Help stop it by signing this petition:
MRC Action
If you think that this has nothing to do with the economy, you're wrong. As soon as vocal opposition is removed, they will do what they want. Money for AIDS in Africa? Amnesty for illegals? Infanticide. You bet.
JR...Nationalist DOES NOT EQUAL Fascist
Every other Nation on Earth gets to be nationalist except for the USA? Have you ever spoken to a Canadian or a Chinese person. They're extremely proud and Nationalist to the core. We need Nationalism, not your brand of Fascism. Notice that I'm not trying to silence you, and so many of you are trying to silence me. THAT IS FASCISM. GET IT?
JR...you're a weak man. That's what this country has come to. A Nation of weak men.
The 1st Amendment protects people who engage in offensive speech for a reason. Read it sometime. We have tolerated the liberal hate for wars and the US military for decades, just as you are expected to tolerate our hate for what you value...hedonism, infanticide, leniency for criminals, rights for terrorists, atheism, materialism, communism, socialism, anti-Christianity, anti-Judaism, anti-family, porn.
Also, true conservatives did not destroy this country. True conservatives were silenced by the liberals though diversity training and thought modification, which created a branch of liberal "conservatives" (neocons) to form with no moral foundation whatsoever. They were simply imitating the competition.
Well, since Wal-mart saves us so much, then we should be able to handle the worst recession since the Great Depression.
"Wal-Mart's relatively strong sales can be attributed to the retailer's decision to stick with its value message. For example, Wal-Mart has been airing television commercials that discuss the ways a family of four can save about $700 a year by shopping for groceries at Wal-Mart."
You saved my Mommy and Daddy $700 last year, but my Daddy lost his job when you shipped it to China, so now we don't have any money to spend at your store for Christmas.
Sounds like time for another stimulus check before Christmas...
Borders, language, culture, sustainability...the new Nationalist message. How does this not work for liberals?
Are illegal aliens counted in the unemployment numbers?
I would think that families in the upper middle class would first cut back on any hired help...house cleaners, gardeners, nannies (if possible), etc. and I'm curious if these folks are eligible for unemployement benefits?
RR and CRE will tank soon .
Byzantine_Ruins writes:
Dirk van Dijk writes:
To repeat Rob Dawg, gratz on the Bloomberg appearance. mp spotted it and posted it here this morning.
Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 11.06.08 - 12:04 pm | #
Thanks, can't say that I saw it, although I did talk to a B'berg reporter a few days ago, so not surprised about it. Part of my job is to talk to the press types. I don't keep a file of my clippings though (although our media relations guy does).
Dawg,
You are right on the less loyalty issue, but I think that takes the form of having more contractors vs. employees, so some of that unemployment might be hidden. In either case I think we are in agreement that this is going to be one heck of an ugly and long lasting recession, and in many ways worse than the official figures like Unemployment will reflect.
DK - liberals are tolerant of viewpoints that agree with them. Dissenters are white supremacists, fascists or Nazis. But then again, what else it new?