In Vegas, wifey also observed many construction projects evidenced by scaffolding and cranes. She noted that none of them seemed busy. No activity.
Anecdotal, but still...
In my mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas slowly turn into a ghost town. Sure, there's the business financial stability that could cause such a desertion of Vegas, but something that so often is ignored is the lack of sustainable water sources. Why you would invest billions, probably trillions in mega-casinos in the middle of a desert with no long-term, reliable water source is beyond me.
"One my closest friends says `Sheldon, don't worry about your height, you're the tallest person I know when you stand on your wallet'," Adelson said on the July 30 call. "And I'm saying right now, the company will not have liquidity problems. Need I say more?"
The $26 billion man is taking a hit - pretty big fall from being right behind Gates and Buffet. Maybe he can restart COMDEX.
Different topic - and I apologize if it has been covered - but I caught the Donny Deutsch show on CNBC last night and Dylan Ratigan was really laying into Paulson and Goldman Sachs. Even Cramer took a shot at Lord Blankfein. What's gotten into those guys?
This was all entirely evident in Late July( a little less so in March). Skeleton staffing, $5 tables EVERYWHERE, no lines at airport...etc.
I even posted at the time of the last trip how the local media were doubting the ability of City Center to be completed as was poo-poo'ed by many here.
having 10k rooms come on line in the next year is going to kill it off for good.
Oh and Adelson?? couldn't happen to a a bigger douche'...deserves it all. May be he'll have to sell one of his planes....you've seen them if you've traveled to LV at all. They are parked at the NW corner of the airport. One short 747 and one long one.
Guys, Vegas is not going to become a ghost town because of excess investment. People like going to Vegas and it's a cheap vacation. Since demand will stay high, albeit at lower spend/visit levels, it simply means the investors will get fractional returns.
"Invest in Vegas. Satisfaction guaranteed or half your money back."
one of our board members for one of my nonprofit arts group is informally know as the "feather queen". her company supplies many of the feathers for vegas and carnival in brazil. lots of ripples in the vegas meltdown.
but, at least we'll be able to have a plethora of amazing surplus headdresses for a project!
I strongly recommend reading the actual SEC documents. There is no new news here -- everyone has known about the problems on the Vegas loan for months now. Furthermore, only the Vegas loan has immediate problems if you check the numbers in my opinion. LVS doesn't have to raise that much capitol - only enough to decrease their leverage on the Vegas loan only. The media has strongly overreacted to this.
Ready for a laugh. I got a FedEx class action letter from some ambulance chasers going after GGP because their shares went for $43 to $2. They want me to enter my transactions. Should I sue because I shorted at $35 instead of at $43 LOL ?
Vegas will be seen as corrupt and a waste of money. The new reality will be taking care of your real needs and that of your family and friends. Who can enjoy a vacation when the people you know are hurting? That money can be spent for better purposes.
The entire concept of what a vacation is and can be should be explored.
Schwarzenegger proposes $4.4 billion in new taxes to close budget deficit..
Which to choose? Hoover economics or Zimbabwe economics...
Whichever way you go you can't disappear a decade's worth of negligence.
Schwarzenegger oversaw one of the most gruesome bubbles in history there in California. And this after they'd just been through the tech bubble and should have known better.
Washington, DC-- Treasury issued the following statement by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. following President Bush's Cabinet meeting this morning to discuss efforts to ensure a seamless transition to the next Administration:
"I congratulate Senator Obama on the election and look forward to working with his team to ensure that there is a smooth and effective transition. A methodical and orderly transition is in the best interests of the financial markets and Treasury is committed to making sure that the incoming team can hit the ground running in January. The next Secretary will also benefit from the support of an exceptional staff of hard-working career employees at Treasury who are critical to the important work before the Department."
Ponyless in NJ writes:
Has the Bellagio gotten cheaper yet?
I'll be in Vegas in December with a bunch of friends. We booked a penthouse suite at the Bellagio for all 5 of us. Per person it will be about $100 per night, including taxes. I'm not a regular by any means, but last time I was there (measured in years) a normal room was more expensive per person.
I used frequent flier miles to get the ticket. I was amazed that I had a huge choice of available flights. Neither the flight there or the one back was anywhere near full when I chose my seat assignment.
My hunting dog says to also look @ Bally Technologies Inc, who are betting BIG time that next year will be a big year; great bet or retarded people with cash to burn?
Well, it would seem even God has thrown in the towel:
TAMPA The future of Without Walls International Church, once one of the fastest-growing congregations in the country, is in jeopardy as the church faces foreclosure of its Tampa property.
The California-based Evangelical Christian Credit Union holds the church's mortgage, and filed foreclosure proceedings against Without Walls Tuesday
I'd like to know just how many people will go to Vegas now that their houses and stock portfolios are worth 50% of what they were valued at one year ago.
So many of our businesses were built on this credit and asset inflation delusion.
Word on the street is Harrah's is looking to reduce the number of participation games in play so they can keep more of the dough themselves. Overall I see a move from participation to daily fee/leased games as a lot of slot managers feel they give up too much with the current model.
I think they call them revenue anticipation bonds.....again selling out the future (albeit much smaller) revs. for some sort of instant gratification now.
Las Vegas is not a cheap vacation. At one time it might have been. Back in the day (30 or 40 years ago) the Casinos were only concerned about raking in the money from gambling. Everything else (rooms, food, etc) was practically a free-be. (Like 49 cent breakfasts for example). Now the rooms and food are priced just like anywhere else. I think LV is headed for a crash of unbelievable scale.
yes...agree with Jim...the only really cheap Vegas vacation is going mid-week as the rooms on the weekend are still way overpriced.
That's what I do.....can actually play at tables without a wait, not feel rushed in the steam room-I've been when there was an actual line to get in it-, and casually do what you want WHEN you want.
That has not been the case on the weekends for over 15 year's. Still is for the moment..
I also advocate going the day's right before thanksgiving....ghost town...even in good times...Sun-Tuesday of that week.
Might go this year and have the whole place to myself.
Net loss in the third quarter of 2008 was $98 million, or $1.27 per diluted share, as compared to net income of $41 million, or $0.52 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2007, for the reasons described above.
In addition, we elected to borrow $400 million under our revolving credit facility in October to protect against possible short-term disruptions in the credit markets. ... etc
Thats Ballgame: it sets up another blistering situation for a Thursday to Tuesday event. I don't know what the volume is, whether there's real conviction or not, but...
"Engineer Jim" I hear you - back in the day when I lived in Fresno, Ca I used to go to Lake Tahoe, and Reno. Gambling subsidized everything - breakfast was 49 cents, and a steak dinner (not good steak, but steak) was a 1.49. Big name entertainment like Cosby was a 2 drink minimum (the drinks were half of what a beer at a major league ballpark will cost you today)
Layoffs Watch '08: SAC
Posted by Bess Levin, Nov 06, 2008, 1:18pm
Apparently "big cuts" are happening up at SAC circa now. Pruning is also said to be occurring today at Sigma Capital Management.
MGM Mirage (MGM) 52 share value range is between $93.19 and about where it is now @ $13.88 -- but a few months ago it hit $8.91. That tells the truth and nothing but, so help me!
GM has Congress over a barrel. Either they give GM the amount on the ransom note or they turn their former employees over to the Pension Guaranty & the currents to unemployment rolls.
"MGM Mirage (MGM) 52 share value range is between $93.19 and about where it is now @ $13.88 -- but a few months ago it hit $8.91. That tells the truth and nothing but, so help me!"
Yes, Kirk is much poorer than last year. I heard he said he lived one year too long.
Kona,
MGM is involved in Century City. Their creditors, Deutschebank and Emaar (or one of the Dubai investment funds) had to take it over earlier this year and on top of that the schedule was delayed to help lower its costs
re: Las Vegas,
It has almost no taxes. Libertarians should go thither, and maybe they can get a ballot measure passed to make every non-interstate a toll road
Since Vegas is so cheap, maybe Jaswant could teach his seminar there, "How to Lose Friends and Not Influence Others Even Though You Generally Understand What Is Happening."
Las Vegas is a VERY cheap vacation for equal quality rooms and food. You have to pay $300 to $500 per night in San Francisco, Los Angeles, or Hawaii for rooms that approach $100-$200 Vegas rooms. The food runs a lot cheaper if you know where to look, but is the same if you don't. Now the sleaze factor in Vegas is off the charts, so feel free to stay away (we got sick of it years ago).
Laughlin, Nevada is basically the Vegas of old: $2 breakfasts and $22 rooms. The hotels often reek of smoke, it is hotter than Vegas, and can be windy/dusty. Not recommended unless you have a boat or want to brawl with bikers.
@Anonymous - Yes, Adelson is an arrogant jerk and deserves to fall hard.
The cheapest I've ever seen M-Bay is $99. The only problem is that they've shut the pool area down and that week usually is fairly good weather-for LV at least. If you want a pool you have to hike to the south side pool that is nothing more than a glorified apartment type pool...not worth it.
Now the Spa.....best layout, size on the strip although I have not been to the Bellagio one. Wynn, Palazzo, and the others are just afterthoughts IMO.
Washington (AP)--Statement from Henry "Hank" Paulson:
We are stripping the cash and treasuries from the vaults. Trucks have been arranged to remove the gold from Ft. Knox. The planes are lined up at an undisclosed location to fly the loot to Paraguay. Here's the keys, we left some petty cash in the bottom drawer of the big desk.
Comrade Vistulian, South Point also has a shuttle to take you to the strip. However, I do find the place is kind of a mix of ghetto middle class and cowboys.
Casino operator Las Vegas Sands Corp. said Thursday that it is in jeopardy of missing certain financial covenant requirements and needs to raise more capital.
Shares of Las Vegas Sands plunged $4.70, or 40.3 percent, to $6.96 in midday trading. Over the past year, the stock has traded between $4.32 and $122.96.
"GM has Congress over a barrel. Either they give GM the amount on the ransom note or they turn their former employees over to the Pension Guaranty & the currents to unemployment rolls."
Deja Vu. Sounds a lot like the blade held to the credit markets throat with regard to TARP. Make me wonder what other, "too big to fail," shoes have yet to drop. Boeing? Some other military contractors?
Unfortunately, I do not have sufficient liquid funds to acquire your stocks from you as all of my capital is tied up in equity positions of several bridges in the New York City area -- perhaps we could work out a trade agreement?
And CA still defends prop 13, a criminal assault on the young. No wonder everyone under 35 is intent on leaving.
Prop 13 encourages a "buy-and-hold" approach to housing by rewarding those who stay in one place. I just don't see anything wrong with that. Arnie's (and the Dem legislature's) problem was not making sure money got put away during the surplus years...
Rob the spammer, I think this is not the best place for you. Yahoo and Google trading boards would be a much better place. Everyone here understands that making a call after things have already happened is not a winning strategy.
Deja Vu. Sounds a lot like the blade held to the credit markets throat with regard to TARP. Make me wonder what other, "too big to fail," shoes have yet to drop. Boeing? Some other military contractors?
My girlfriend/business partner's best friend works for a law firm in Dubai. We just got a report that the transactional department of the firm is SWAMPED due to real estate developers looking to get out of their contracts because of the financial troubles.
So much for the Vegas of the mid-east.
UPDATE:
Just heard this from the friend in Dubai:
"it is borderline anarchy... most of the skyline in the 'New Dubai' is made of buildings that are half or 2/3rds completed...there are dozens of highrise buildings that have broken ground, most of the buildings, despite being half done, have people moved in, doing business, whatever, on the bottom floors. Cranes everywhere you turn, literally, at the top of every building. Maybe a fourth of the cranes are actually in motion at a given time. Construction is pretty much halted. Lots of subdevelopers have simply stopped making payments to master developers because investors are dropping like flies/nowhere to be found."
OT, interesting chart, "Before this so-called "crisis" is over dividend yields on the S&P 500 will be significantly higher than AAA/Treasury long bond yields. As in 2-3x higher..."
but historical charts don't always apply in unchartered waters.
It may be time for a Vegas-style Telethon, with some nudity, free drinks, cakewalks, bake sales, bingo, pony rides, hats, touch the dancing skeleton bone stuff for the kids, etc..
Just heard this from the friend in Dubai:
"it is borderline anarchy... most of the skyline in the 'New Dubai' is made of buildings that are half or 2/3rds completed...there are dozens of highrise buildings that have broken ground, most of the buildings, despite being half done, have people moved in, doing business, whatever, on the bottom floors. Cranes everywhere you turn, literally, at the top of every building. Maybe a fourth of the cranes are actually in motion at a given time. Construction is pretty much halted. Lots of subdevelopers have simply stopped making payments to master developers because investors are dropping like flies/nowhere to be found."
Maybe I should call it Super Miami instead of Super Las Vegas.
I haven't enjoyed Vegas since I was in my late teens. I was an idiot then.
What's with the silly, simplistic games that are all alike with the same stupid rules that you can't win against? What's with the stupid cartoon slot machines? It's a mugs game. Feggit about it. Let the sand drift in.
(hmmmm...after reading the above, I've suddenly done some soul searching about my stock market obsession)
Bank of America Corp. offered a concession to the 15,500 brokers it will inherit from Merrill Lynch & Co., saying it will adopt an industry practice that allows them to quit without facing legal action.
The move, disclosed in a memo to employees yesterday, is Bank of America's second attempt in two weeks to stem defections from a unit that Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis has called Merrill's ``crown jewel.'' Lewis on Oct. 24 said brokers who stayed will qualify for a bonus of as much as 100 percent of their annual revenue.
Lewis, 61, is trying to prevent attrition after agreeing to buy Merrill in September in an all-stock deal valued at the time at $50 billion. Yesterday's announcement will bolster confidence among Merrill brokers, who outperformed their investment-banking and trading colleagues this year, said Thomas B. Lewis, a lawyer who focuses on employee litigation.
This memo was circulated to abate the concerns of Merrill brokers,'' said Lewis, a lawyer at Stark & Stark in Princeton, New Jersey, who is advising Merrill brokers and isn't related to the CEO.Merrill Lynch needed to do something quick. It raised a lot of concerns and questions for senior brokers with books of business and the transportability of their business.''
Merrill brokers have until Nov. 14 to decide whether to accept the retention packages.
Struggling hotel markets like Las Vegas, Hawaii and Orlando have likewise eliminated thousands of jobs, according to published reports. In Las Vegas, according to one report, more than 15,000 hotel positions have been eliminated. In October unemployment reports, California state officials noted that the 2,100 leisure and hospitality jobs lost in October were nearly twice as many as usual. The sector includes hotel and restaurant workers. U.S. Labor Department unemployment reports indicate that the hospitality and restaurant sector cut more than 19,576 jobs in the three-months ended in September and 74,975 since January
In the car rental sector, Enterprise Rent-A-Car last week announced the first mass layoffs in its 51-year history, with plans to eliminate about 1,000 jobs by the end of November.
WASHINGTON When the government took over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, taxpayers inherited more than just bad debts. They're also potentially on the hook for tens of millions of dollars in legal fees for the executives at the center of the housing market's collapse
Anonymous writes:
Mark my words. Dubai will start up again just as soon as oil goes to 150.
I do not see oil below 3 digits in the next few years.
Deflation doesn't bode well for this theory even if peak-oil is correct.
Part-of-peak oil theory is the accelerated consumption loop with more production of oil comes greater domestic growth and therefore greater consumption of domestic supplies until you become a net importer. I don't disagree with the theory, just the timeline.
No, deflationary depression will make oil very very cheap, compared to prices today. But while everything is "cheap" there will be little cash to buy and grow anyway.
Whatever race of beings populates the planet after our demise, their mythical and religious texts will talk of those who previously inhabited the world and how the final sign of the end times were islands in frivolous shapes being built in the sea.
Then came the fire from the skies and the oceans turned upside down.
U.S. three-month bill yields fell the most since October 1989 as investors sought out the safety of government debt amid a flight from risky assets.
The yield on the three-month Treasury bill fell 0.61 percentage point to 4.025 percent, the lowest since 2005 and the biggest single-day decline since Oct. 13, 1989.
The tumble in yields came after Merrill Lynch & Co. lowered its rating on Countrywide Financial Corp....
"Hell, if its -380 today, wait until tomorrow. I'm slow now, waiting for the 201K crowd to come in."
Good point. Two ugly days back to back could prompt some tasty "market on close" sell orders in the next few days. I actually contributed to that on Tuesday. Had feathered in about 15% of my 401k to an index fund in mid-October in a (mostly unsuccessful) attempt to play a nice bounce off the bottom. Took advantage of the election day 5-percenter to get back out (Fidelity active trader classification and the accompanying fund transfer restriction be damned) with about 1% profit. And I was happy to have it.
The Talmud notes that after the destruction of the Second Temple, in 70 AD, the price of wheat fell considerably, but people were starving in the street.
Whatever race of beings populates the planet after our demise, their mythical and religious texts will talk of those who previously inhabited the world and how the final sign of the end times were islands in frivolous shapes being built in the sea.
Then came the fire from the skies and the oceans turned upside down.
ac | 11.06.08 - 2:30 pm | #
You know ac, I thought the exact thing when I saw this on Discovery Channel, however my thought was not nearly as eloquent as yours.
I just thought this is a sign that the end of the world is close.
Waldman has plausible analysis of why Bernanke went along with TARP:
"Cynics can easily find reasons for Secretary Paulson to have favored the original TARP proposal. But why did Dr. Bernanke play along?
Here's a possibility: Sometime in the middle of September, the Fed hit its balance sheet constraint. Dr. Bernanke could not have provided liquidity on the scale he thought necessary to support the financial system without injecting unsterilized new cash into the banking system and potentially sparking inflation or a run on the dollar. At that moment, the U.S. Federal Reserve lost its independence entirely. In order to pursue the policy its technocrats thought best, it required large-scale funding from the US Treasury. Dr. Bernanke had to negotiate with Secretary Paulson, whose nickname "The Hammer" is not a tribute to his love of carpentry. A deal was struck, and the Supplementary Financing Program was born."
Helicopter Ben chickened out when it came time to lift off? This is plausible to me. Given that, Paulson should be run out of town on a rail.
GM has Congress over a barrel. Either they give GM the amount on the ransom note or they turn their former employees over to the Pension Guaranty & the currents to unemployment rolls.
Panda, people have been speculating Bernanke went along with the TARP because he needed the Feds to refill his balance sheet from the announcement. Even Bernanke haters thought he wouldn't support something as creepy as the TARP and had to have some gun to his head to make him go along.
While trying to discuss this in a data driven fashion with you is a timewaster, there may be other folks here who are interested in what is actually signified in the peak oil concept - this is largely for their benefit.
Quite to the contrary of your recurring theme, the peak oil concept dates back to the time that oil was selling for $3-$6 barrel (the '50s). A geologist named M. King Hubbert posited that the US would reach a peak production rate and then go into an irreversible decline (a phenomenon that all oil fields and eventually provinces experience). This occurs when about half of all the oil that can be extracted has been pumped.
With respect to the current collapse of the speculative bubble in crude prices (along with pretty much all other commodities), it is part of three general price drivers: a structural price cycle that is a function of the long lead times that it takes to bring large oil projects into production (~10 years), supply/demand balances that bobble from quarter to quarter as a function of economic activity and cartel actions, and the financialization of commodity prices where huge money inflows in recent years have far exceeded the depth of those markets driving the speculative bubble.
But to answer your question, November 12th is when the IEA comes out with their latest World Energy Outlook and their very first supply survey based on a bottoms-up approach of existing production and decline rates along with scheduled new production from the announced IOC and NOC project pipeline.
bearly writes:
GM has Congress over a barrel. Either they give GM the amount on the ransom note or they turn their former employees over to the Pension Guaranty & the currents to unemployment rolls.
bearly | 11.06.08 - 2:01 pm | #
Back from Vegas. Two nites at Ballys Fri/Sat $260 per nite. Room service 1/2 pot of coffee (enough for 2) was $20. Dinner for 4 at Paris Eiffel Tower restaurant nearly $500 w/tip. Cheap? At those rates who can afford to gamble? Single cup of coffee at Paris $6. Rum & coke (well drink) with beer was $15. Round of drinks at Paris/Bally's dueling piano bar was $41,$46 w/tip (2 Amarettos, 2 Lite beers). Stateline/Primm for now on for me. These people are insane
first?????
time to double dow
Vegas is so FUBAR
You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold em', know when to walk away, know when to run......
...the commercial & res market here has been POUNDING SAND...
Always bet on black.
In Vegas, wifey also observed many construction projects evidenced by scaffolding and cranes. She noted that none of them seemed busy. No activity.
Anecdotal, but still...
ow THAT'S progress we can beleive i
I'll take that bet, but what are the odds?
I believe there are still 30,000 or so new rooms scheduled to come online in the near future in LV.
...all employment is down to baseline staffing levels...which isn't easy with 24-hour operation...it's a high-rise ghost town around here...
Put it all on 00 and hope for the best.
Or is the TARP big enough to cover this too?
Next in line Harrah's, MGM and Coast Casinos. I bet most of them default. MGM already has on the new City Center project.
The Wall Street of the proletariat is crashing too?
Where can a guy go to get something for nothing?
Maybe they can use spare pasties to hold their balance sheets together.
Casinos are suffering; finally some good news!
In my mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see Vegas slowly turn into a ghost town. Sure, there's the business financial stability that could cause such a desertion of Vegas, but something that so often is ignored is the lack of sustainable water sources. Why you would invest billions, probably trillions in mega-casinos in the middle of a desert with no long-term, reliable water source is beyond me.
I realize Vegas is FUBAR, but when casinos start hurtin', you know things are not as rosy as the leaders and banksters try to make it all appear.
Reality is a beyatch!
This is an interesting quote from the article.
"One my closest friends says `Sheldon, don't worry about your height, you're the tallest person I know when you stand on your wallet'," Adelson said on the July 30 call. "And I'm saying right now, the company will not have liquidity problems. Need I say more?"
I'm no expert, but S&P indicates another 100 pt DOW drop.
What happens in Vegas, stays in ....uhhm.
The $26 billion man is taking a hit - pretty big fall from being right behind Gates and Buffet. Maybe he can restart COMDEX.
Different topic - and I apologize if it has been covered - but I caught the Donny Deutsch show on CNBC last night and Dylan Ratigan was really laying into Paulson and Goldman Sachs. Even Cramer took a shot at Lord Blankfein. What's gotten into those guys?
This was all entirely evident in Late July( a little less so in March). Skeleton staffing, $5 tables EVERYWHERE, no lines at airport...etc.
I even posted at the time of the last trip how the local media were doubting the ability of City Center to be completed as was poo-poo'ed by many here.
having 10k rooms come on line in the next year is going to kill it off for good.
Oh and Adelson?? couldn't happen to a a bigger douche'...deserves it all. May be he'll have to sell one of his planes....you've seen them if you've traveled to LV at all. They are parked at the NW corner of the airport. One short 747 and one long one.
Ciao
MS
What's gotten into those guys?
Olympic Gardens
A steady diet of False Courage Flakes.
What's gotten into those guys?
New administration. For the media, it's all about access.
But what will happen to the chorus girls?
Guys, Vegas is not going to become a ghost town because of excess investment. People like going to Vegas and it's a cheap vacation. Since demand will stay high, albeit at lower spend/visit levels, it simply means the investors will get fractional returns.
"Invest in Vegas. Satisfaction guaranteed or half your money back."
Sam, they are yours for the night for a square meal.
Re: "Maybe they can use spare pasties to hold their balance sheets together.'
Schwarzenegger proposes $4.4 billion in new taxes to close budget deficit..
Has the Bellagio gotten cheaper yet?
What's gotten into those guys?
They're trying to deflect attention from their own blatant mendacity.
Schwarzenegger proposes $4.4 billion in new taxes to close budget deficit..
He should have done that at the top of the business cycle. Obviously.
How is Super Las Vegas doing? (aka Dubai)
Seems like global depression isn't the best time for scads of new hotels and casinos.
Bend over....we're all in.
one of our board members for one of my nonprofit arts group is informally know as the "feather queen". her company supplies many of the feathers for vegas and carnival in brazil. lots of ripples in the vegas meltdown.
but, at least we'll be able to have a plethora of amazing surplus headdresses for a project!
I strongly recommend reading the actual SEC documents. There is no new news here -- everyone has known about the problems on the Vegas loan for months now. Furthermore, only the Vegas loan has immediate problems if you check the numbers in my opinion. LVS doesn't have to raise that much capitol - only enough to decrease their leverage on the Vegas loan only. The media has strongly overreacted to this.
Ready for a laugh. I got a FedEx class action letter from some ambulance chasers going after GGP because their shares went for $43 to $2. They want me to enter my transactions. Should I sue because I shorted at $35 instead of at $43 LOL ?
Vegas will be seen as corrupt and a waste of money. The new reality will be taking care of your real needs and that of your family and friends. Who can enjoy a vacation when the people you know are hurting? That money can be spent for better purposes.
The entire concept of what a vacation is and can be should be explored.
I have seen the enemy, and he is us...
but, at least we'll be able to have a plethora of amazing surplus headdresses for a project!
serf Alan Greenspend
I'm hearing real possibilities for the next gathering.
ac-
Dubai property market on edge amid global slowdown
The article requested is no longer available.
Ponyless,
There are silver linings everywhere, aren't there.
Ponyless in NJ writes:
Has the Bellagio gotten cheaper yet?
I don't know about the Bellagio but I do know you can get rooms midweek at the Wynn and Palazzo for $119.
Schwarzenegger proposes $4.4 billion in new taxes to close budget deficit..
Which to choose? Hoover economics or Zimbabwe economics...
Whichever way you go you can't disappear a decade's worth of negligence.
Schwarzenegger oversaw one of the most gruesome bubbles in history there in California. And this after they'd just been through the tech bubble and should have known better.
Some business savvy governor he turned out to be.
I believe there are still 30,000 or so new rooms scheduled to come online in the near future in LV.
12th Percentile | 11.06.08 - 1:11 pm | #
And that's how LV can make some money.
National section 8 for the homeless with some cash flow from the gub'mint.
And every room comes with Monopoly money for use in the casinos downstairs.
Volker da viking- we had a show on tuesday and took our marching band on a street dance party to union square, weeee.
the feathers will be a springtime thing after further vegas melting and tax deductions are needed.
next big event is santacon on dec 13 if you want to head to town. we'll be tormenting retailers no doubt.
Calif news
Calif. Gov. Schwarzenegger proposes cuts, tax hikes: report - MarketWatch
Glod eating the Dow again today.
Bearly:
GGP recently sold three properties in LV in order to get cash.
paulson press release out, "here are the keys, the car is on blocks and it's been stripped. vandals i guess..." -
HP-1255: Statement by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. on Transition
Washington, DC-- Treasury issued the following statement by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. following President Bush's Cabinet meeting this morning to discuss efforts to ensure a seamless transition to the next Administration:
"I congratulate Senator Obama on the election and look forward to working with his team to ensure that there is a smooth and effective transition. A methodical and orderly transition is in the best interests of the financial markets and Treasury is committed to making sure that the incoming team can hit the ground running in January. The next Secretary will also benefit from the support of an exceptional staff of hard-working career employees at Treasury who are critical to the important work before the Department."
Meanwhile, Sam's going to be just fine: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/06/business/06shopping.php
But that's another death knell for malls and their anchor stores.
Tarp it!
Boo hoo...it's a failed business model. Let it fail.
To anon who said this is "nothing"
I have not read the SEC filing, however, I don't think they recived the SAS 59 (going concern) comments from their auditors before today...
Sam:
I've done charity work and all of that. And while I will continue to support where and when I can, when I want a vacation, I'll take a vacation.
If we live decently and do our own bit, why forego a vacation for solidarity with others?
Now, I might have to take a personal exploration into the welfare of chorus girls.
OT-California lost 11.2 billion in 6 wks...
man...were in trouble..
I'm Vegas bound on the 21st.. for umm.. 'research purposes'.
Ponyless in NJ writes:
Has the Bellagio gotten cheaper yet?
I'll be in Vegas in December with a bunch of friends. We booked a penthouse suite at the Bellagio for all 5 of us. Per person it will be about $100 per night, including taxes. I'm not a regular by any means, but last time I was there (measured in years) a normal room was more expensive per person.
I used frequent flier miles to get the ticket. I was amazed that I had a huge choice of available flights. Neither the flight there or the one back was anywhere near full when I chose my seat assignment.
OT-California lost 11.2 billion in 6 wks
How much of GDP is CA?
My hunting dog says to also look @ Bally Technologies Inc, who are betting BIG time that next year will be a big year; great bet or retarded people with cash to burn?
[Schwarzenegger oversaw one of the most gruesome bubbles in history ]
He helped engineer it. And CA still defends prop 13, a criminal assault on the young. No wonder everyone under 35 is intent on leaving.
skent writes:
Schwarzenegger proposes $4.4 billion in new taxes to close budget deficit..
A big tax increase will help him sell at those tax-free state bonds!
Well, it would seem even God has thrown in the towel:
TAMPA The future of Without Walls International Church, once one of the fastest-growing congregations in the country, is in jeopardy as the church faces foreclosure of its Tampa property.
The California-based Evangelical Christian Credit Union holds the church's mortgage, and filed foreclosure proceedings against Without Walls Tuesday
http://www.tampabay.com/news/religion/article892007.ece
I'd like to know just how many people will go to Vegas now that their houses and stock portfolios are worth 50% of what they were valued at one year ago.
So many of our businesses were built on this credit and asset inflation delusion.
raise a substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern.''
Replace company's with Nation's
/drink
From Yahoo' message borad: Cmdr Gonzo says:
Word on the street is Harrah's is looking to reduce the number of participation games in play so they can keep more of the dough themselves. Overall I see a move from participation to daily fee/leased games as a lot of slot managers feel they give up too much with the current model.
So many of our businesses were built on this credit and asset inflation delusion.
Tell me about it; I had to sit through a corporate finance class this morning on LBOs.
I think they call them revenue anticipation bonds.....again selling out the future (albeit much smaller) revs. for some sort of instant gratification now.
Ciao
MS
Is there anyway to short Vegas?
Las Vegas is not a cheap vacation. At one time it might have been. Back in the day (30 or 40 years ago) the Casinos were only concerned about raking in the money from gambling. Everything else (rooms, food, etc) was practically a free-be. (Like 49 cent breakfasts for example). Now the rooms and food are priced just like anywhere else. I think LV is headed for a crash of unbelievable scale.
A cheap vacation is staying at home.
Maybe we should bailout vegas! Kidding. Did you know Obama is poker player and McCain a craps player?
Reno is the recession vegas.
The going concern was in their 8k from the company and not their auditors
Appropriate music.
Video "Castles Made of Sand- jimi hendrix" - Technorati
BArley: Nice pic of preacher with hand out looking for a hand out. This is priceless as well:
"In my opinion, it's nothing more than greed from a Christian bank who's supposed to be working with Christians," White said.
Is it just me, or has anyone else never heard of a Christian bank?
A cheap vacation is staying at home.
EngineerJim
A really cheap vacation is drinking beer in the basement while watching the Travel Channel for 7 days. I'd rather go on vacation, though.
Is it just me, or has anyone else never heard of a Christian bank?
Volker the Viking
Prez swears on a Bible
Prez appoints Tres Sec
Tres Sec next to God
therefore
Fed Res is a christian bank
Nice, Elvis.
That's how thread music is done.
yes...agree with Jim...the only really cheap Vegas vacation is going mid-week as the rooms on the weekend are still way overpriced.
That's what I do.....can actually play at tables without a wait, not feel rushed in the steam room-I've been when there was an actual line to get in it-, and casually do what you want WHEN you want.
That has not been the case on the weekends for over 15 year's. Still is for the moment..
I also advocate going the day's right before thanksgiving....ghost town...even in good times...Sun-Tuesday of that week.
Might go this year and have the whole place to myself.
Ciao
MS
barely,
Sound reasoning.
/blackhat tip
Taxpayers may pay legal bills for mortgage execs
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
just sad or schadenfreude, "wall st pink slip party" if anyone wants to come by and taunt.
Wall Street Pink Slip Party
Also keep an eye on Lear Corp.
``We have a lot of members who are having trouble with the credit crisis right now,'' she said.We've got to figure out a way to keep the manufacturing base in this country.''
GM, Ford May Step Up Pleas for Help as Obama Wins (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Also see: Form 10-Q for LEAR CORP
Summary
of
LEAR CORP - Yahoo!
Finance
Net loss in the third quarter of 2008 was $98 million, or $1.27 per diluted share, as compared to net income of $41 million, or $0.52 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2007, for the reasons described above.
In addition, we elected to borrow $400 million under our revolving credit facility in October to protect against possible short-term disruptions in the credit markets. ... etc
I also advocate going the day's right before thanksgiving....ghost town...even in good times...Sun-Tuesday of that week.
Now that's thinking like a true contrarian.
Good plan.
Dow down 443. What's our final figure going to be today? Down 550? Do I hear 600?
Sets up an intriguing Friday.
"I also advocate going the day's right before thanksgiving....ghost town...even in good times...Sun-Tuesday of that week. "
Don't go to the strip clubs in Las Vegas the day after Thanksgiving. Strippers feast, too, and the next day is not so pretty.
...the real cheap vacations are the ghost town tours with $3-5 buffets in Pahrump. Rooms are cheap too if you can find them.
Lots of great comedians with solid one-liners here.
Mean. But, entertaining.
Thats Ballgame: it sets up another blistering situation for a Thursday to Tuesday event. I don't know what the volume is, whether there's real conviction or not, but...
Hold 900 today? Probably not. We'll see.
Doesn't look like I'll need my nitro today either.
Did someone release the Friday jobs report early to the hedge funds?
Down goes Frazier
Down goes Frazier
Down 500-540 going into the last half hour.... where it goes from there is anyone's guess.
"Engineer Jim" I hear you - back in the day when I lived in Fresno, Ca I used to go to Lake Tahoe, and Reno. Gambling subsidized everything - breakfast was 49 cents, and a steak dinner (not good steak, but steak) was a 1.49. Big name entertainment like Cosby was a 2 drink minimum (the drinks were half of what a beer at a major league ballpark will cost you today)
The latest vacation idea: foreclosure tours.
Today's chart looks like the side of a Mayan temple.
If she floats, she's a witch.
Is the Greenwich McDonalds hiring???
Layoffs Watch '08: SAC
Posted by Bess Levin, Nov 06, 2008, 1:18pm
Apparently "big cuts" are happening up at SAC circa now. Pruning is also said to be occurring today at Sigma Capital Management.
Layoffs Watch '08: SAC, Sigma - Dealbreaker - A Wall Street Tabloid - Business News Headlines and Financial Gossip
Ok, here is a mental picture:
MGM Mirage (MGM) 52 share value range is between $93.19 and about where it is now @ $13.88 -- but a few months ago it hit $8.91. That tells the truth and nothing but, so help me!
Obama's adminstration has now put up the transition website at
http://www.change.gov/
Is this the 700 pt down day to make up last weeks 900+..
fair is fair...
GM has Congress over a barrel. Either they give GM the amount on the ransom note or they turn their former employees over to the Pension Guaranty & the currents to unemployment rolls.
MGM was $96.40 a year ago!
"MGM Mirage (MGM) 52 share value range is between $93.19 and about where it is now @ $13.88 -- but a few months ago it hit $8.91. That tells the truth and nothing but, so help me!"
Yes, Kirk is much poorer than last year. I heard he said he lived one year too long.
Just got an offer at Mandalay for $89 a night for the week leading up to Turkey Day. I haven't seen Mandalay rates below $100 for...well maybe never.
http://www.change.gov/
Ministry of Truth | Homepage | 11.06.08 - 2:00 pm | #
All it needs now is a tip jar.
Lauglin, NV rooms can be had as low as $5 for 3 nights using a coupon on Expedia or Orbitz. Buffets run from $4-$8.
Kona,
MGM is involved in Century City. Their creditors, Deutschebank and Emaar (or one of the Dubai investment funds) had to take it over earlier this year and on top of that the schedule was delayed to help lower its costs
re: Las Vegas,
It has almost no taxes. Libertarians should go thither, and maybe they can get a ballot measure passed to make every non-interstate a toll road
Las Vegas Sands Corp was $120 a year ago, now around $7.50 ... wow!
Did I say Cisco to $5.00?
Since Vegas is so cheap, maybe Jaswant could teach his seminar there, "How to Lose Friends and Not Influence Others Even Though You Generally Understand What Is Happening."
@EngineerJim:
Las Vegas is a VERY cheap vacation for equal quality rooms and food. You have to pay $300 to $500 per night in San Francisco, Los Angeles, or Hawaii for rooms that approach $100-$200 Vegas rooms. The food runs a lot cheaper if you know where to look, but is the same if you don't. Now the sleaze factor in Vegas is off the charts, so feel free to stay away (we got sick of it years ago).
Laughlin, Nevada is basically the Vegas of old: $2 breakfasts and $22 rooms. The hotels often reek of smoke, it is hotter than Vegas, and can be windy/dusty. Not recommended unless you have a boat or want to brawl with bikers.
@Anonymous - Yes, Adelson is an arrogant jerk and deserves to fall hard.
Barley: "...Fed Res is a christian bank..."
Uh, no. Greenspan, Bernanke, Geithner, Kohn, Fisher. There is a common thread there.
But it is not Christianity.
going up again.... all is well.
the bottom is in.
KO-
The cheapest I've ever seen M-Bay is $99. The only problem is that they've shut the pool area down and that week usually is fairly good weather-for LV at least. If you want a pool you have to hike to the south side pool that is nothing more than a glorified apartment type pool...not worth it.
Now the Spa.....best layout, size on the strip although I have not been to the Bellagio one. Wynn, Palazzo, and the others are just afterthoughts IMO.
Ciao
MS
Washington (AP)--Statement from Henry "Hank" Paulson:
We are stripping the cash and treasuries from the vaults. Trucks have been arranged to remove the gold from Ft. Knox. The planes are lined up at an undisclosed location to fly the loot to Paraguay. Here's the keys, we left some petty cash in the bottom drawer of the big desk.
up goes frasier?
2:00 lunch is over..
Laughlin.....go to the river to kill your liver.
That's what I've always heard about it.
Mongols vs Hell's Angel's is also what I've heard too.
Ciao
MS
after issuing a sell signal at end of day on election day, financialtraders blog has just issued another signal.
I just covered my shorts with a 10% profits in two days, and started buying.
He is for real folks!
Details below.
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: stock price predction: QQQQ, NDX, DOW, SPY, NQ Trading (November 6, 2008)
"
1:42PM: with NDX at 1241, we are scaling in on the long side of stock market (NDX, SP500, DOW trading)
"
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: stock price predction: QQQQ, NDX, DOW, SPY, NQ Trading (November 6, 2008)
Timothy Geithner Jewish? I call you a liar.
...Rosengren, Stern.
FRB: Reserve Bank Presidents -- Boston
Lucifer's Inverted Hammer writes:
up goes frasier?
Yeah, I think so too. Here, let me sell you some stocks so you can make out. I have plenty.
This sell off IMO is in anticipation of a bad jobs number on Friday If we get less than 250k Jobs I think we make up most of the losses. We'll see.
Ministry of Truth writes:
"Ponyless in NJ writes:
Has the Bellagio gotten cheaper yet?
I don't know about the Bellagio but I do know you can get rooms midweek at the Wynn and Palazzo for $119."
Try the South Point a few miles south of te strip, you can get huge roooms with all the frills for half the price.
Evil,
Damn that Youtube, they took off my Tom Petty song:
We're gonna live in Century City,
Go ahead and give in (Century City) like modern men,
And modern girls, we're gonna live in the modern world.
Comrade Vistulian, South Point also has a shuttle to take you to the strip. However, I do find the place is kind of a mix of ghetto middle class and cowboys.
stall at 8800? (2:08)
rob writes:
after issuing a sell signal at end of day on election day, financialtraders blog has just issued another signal.
I think the comm lines are down because not everyone got the signal.
Closing at DOW 10200 today.
So... how long before the Henry Paulson "WeGotCashForYou" Hotline starts getting calls from the 702 area code?
Casino operator Las Vegas Sands Corp. said Thursday that it is in jeopardy of missing certain financial covenant requirements and needs to raise more capital.
Shares of Las Vegas Sands plunged $4.70, or 40.3 percent, to $6.96 in midday trading. Over the past year, the stock has traded between $4.32 and $122.96.
@bearly writes:
"GM has Congress over a barrel. Either they give GM the amount on the ransom note or they turn their former employees over to the Pension Guaranty & the currents to unemployment rolls."
Deja Vu. Sounds a lot like the blade held to the credit markets throat with regard to TARP. Make me wonder what other, "too big to fail," shoes have yet to drop. Boeing? Some other military contractors?
Byzantine_ruins,
Unfortunately, I do not have sufficient liquid funds to acquire your stocks from you as all of my capital is tied up in equity positions of several bridges in the New York City area -- perhaps we could work out a trade agreement?
"Closing at DOW 10200 today."
Thanks, I needed a good laugh.
bearly writes:
And CA still defends prop 13, a criminal assault on the young. No wonder everyone under 35 is intent on leaving.
Prop 13 encourages a "buy-and-hold" approach to housing by rewarding those who stay in one place. I just don't see anything wrong with that. Arnie's (and the Dem legislature's) problem was not making sure money got put away during the surplus years...
Rob the spammer, I think this is not the best place for you. Yahoo and Google trading boards would be a much better place. Everyone here understands that making a call after things have already happened is not a winning strategy.
Deja Vu. Sounds a lot like the blade held to the credit markets throat with regard to TARP. Make me wonder what other, "too big to fail," shoes have yet to drop. Boeing? Some other military contractors?
Yes. Boeing, Lockheed Martin...Northrop Grumman, etc...
"Closing at DOW 10200 today."
I'll take the under.
"How is Super Las Vegas doing? (aka Dubai)"
FWIW, some anecdotal info from another forum:
My girlfriend/business partner's best friend works for a law firm in Dubai. We just got a report that the transactional department of the firm is SWAMPED due to real estate developers looking to get out of their contracts because of the financial troubles.
So much for the Vegas of the mid-east.
UPDATE:
Just heard this from the friend in Dubai:
"it is borderline anarchy... most of the skyline in the 'New Dubai' is made of buildings that are half or 2/3rds completed...there are dozens of highrise buildings that have broken ground, most of the buildings, despite being half done, have people moved in, doing business, whatever, on the bottom floors. Cranes everywhere you turn, literally, at the top of every building. Maybe a fourth of the cranes are actually in motion at a given time. Construction is pretty much halted. Lots of subdevelopers have simply stopped making payments to master developers because investors are dropping like flies/nowhere to be found."
OT, interesting chart, "Before this so-called "crisis" is over dividend yields on the S&P 500 will be significantly higher than AAA/Treasury long bond yields. As in 2-3x higher..."
but historical charts don't always apply in unchartered waters.
Sudden Debt: The Past As Future
commence mini-rally.
It may be time for a Vegas-style Telethon, with some nudity, free drinks, cakewalks, bake sales, bingo, pony rides, hats, touch the dancing skeleton bone stuff for the kids, etc..
Closing at DOW 10200 today
Wouldn't be funny or unrealistic if they banned short selling again...
Last year a total of 1/5th of all the available cranes worldwide used for constructing high rises were located in........Dubai.
On that little tidbit alone it will not end well.
Ciao
MS
Dodd is on TV trying to strike the fear of god into the financial system. Hasn't announced any new regulation yet, just outlining some plans
Heavier volume today; the PPT will have to fight a bit harder than on the last 30 days' typical 'all seller, no buyer' days:
Shark Investing - Volume Charts
Just heard this from the friend in Dubai:
"it is borderline anarchy... most of the skyline in the 'New Dubai' is made of buildings that are half or 2/3rds completed...there are dozens of highrise buildings that have broken ground, most of the buildings, despite being half done, have people moved in, doing business, whatever, on the bottom floors. Cranes everywhere you turn, literally, at the top of every building. Maybe a fourth of the cranes are actually in motion at a given time. Construction is pretty much halted. Lots of subdevelopers have simply stopped making payments to master developers because investors are dropping like flies/nowhere to be found."
Maybe I should call it Super Miami instead of Super Las Vegas.
I haven't enjoyed Vegas since I was in my late teens. I was an idiot then.
What's with the silly, simplistic games that are all alike with the same stupid rules that you can't win against? What's with the stupid cartoon slot machines? It's a mugs game. Feggit about it. Let the sand drift in.
(hmmmm...after reading the above, I've suddenly done some soul searching about my stock market obsession)
Exit stage left.
Wonder how this is going in Dubai?
The World
What a joke.
Bank of America Says Merrill Brokers Can Quit Without Penalty
Bank of America Says Merrill Brokers Can Quit Without Penalty - Bloomberg.com
Bank of America Corp. offered a concession to the 15,500 brokers it will inherit from Merrill Lynch & Co., saying it will adopt an industry practice that allows them to quit without facing legal action.
The move, disclosed in a memo to employees yesterday, is Bank of America's second attempt in two weeks to stem defections from a unit that Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis has called Merrill's ``crown jewel.'' Lewis on Oct. 24 said brokers who stayed will qualify for a bonus of as much as 100 percent of their annual revenue.
Lewis, 61, is trying to prevent attrition after agreeing to buy Merrill in September in an all-stock deal valued at the time at $50 billion. Yesterday's announcement will bolster confidence among Merrill brokers, who outperformed their investment-banking and trading colleagues this year, said Thomas B. Lewis, a lawyer who focuses on employee litigation.
This memo was circulated to abate the concerns of Merrill brokers,'' said Lewis, a lawyer at Stark & Stark in Princeton, New Jersey, who is advising Merrill brokers and isn't related to the CEO.Merrill Lynch needed to do something quick. It raised a lot of concerns and questions for senior brokers with books of business and the transportability of their business.''
Merrill brokers have until Nov. 14 to decide whether to accept the retention packages.
Lots of nice tips here:
Travel Companies Detail Layoffs
Travel Companies Detail Layoffs
Struggling hotel markets like Las Vegas, Hawaii and Orlando have likewise eliminated thousands of jobs, according to published reports. In Las Vegas, according to one report, more than 15,000 hotel positions have been eliminated. In October unemployment reports, California state officials noted that the 2,100 leisure and hospitality jobs lost in October were nearly twice as many as usual. The sector includes hotel and restaurant workers. U.S. Labor Department unemployment reports indicate that the hospitality and restaurant sector cut more than 19,576 jobs in the three-months ended in September and 74,975 since January
In the car rental sector, Enterprise Rent-A-Car last week announced the first mass layoffs in its 51-year history, with plans to eliminate about 1,000 jobs by the end of November.
Mark my words. Dubai will start up again just as soon as oil goes to 150.
I do not see oil below 3 digits in the next few years.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Dodd is on TV trying to strike the fear of god into the financial system...
Dodd's a fake, a poser. He's staying in the Banking cmmte. to help his rich buddies. I'm a liberal and I know this.
Taxpayers may pay legal bills for mortgage execs
WASHINGTON When the government took over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, taxpayers inherited more than just bad debts. They're also potentially on the hook for tens of millions of dollars in legal fees for the executives at the center of the housing market's collapse
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
First thing let's do, let's fire all the lawyers.
I do not see oil below 3 digits in the next few years.
Anonymous | 11.06.08 - 2:24 pm | #
You must be couting cents?
Peak Oil = Leveraged Speculatio
Hell, if its -380 today, wait until tomorrow. I'm slow now, waiting for the 201K crowd to come in.
Where's Bugsy when you need him
Peak Oil = Leveraged Speculation
Peak oil is here already.
Unless you believe in perpetual decline of the global economies culminating in population decline.
Is there anything the taxpayers are not paying for?
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Anonymous writes:
Mark my words. Dubai will start up again just as soon as oil goes to 150.
I do not see oil below 3 digits in the next few years.
Deflation doesn't bode well for this theory even if peak-oil is correct.
Part-of-peak oil theory is the accelerated consumption loop with more production of oil comes greater domestic growth and therefore greater consumption of domestic supplies until you become a net importer. I don't disagree with the theory, just the timeline.
No, deflationary depression will make oil very very cheap, compared to prices today. But while everything is "cheap" there will be little cash to buy and grow anyway.
So, no, maybe in 10 years but not three.
Sure, oil will skyrocket once the dollar crashes. Not until, though.
That's the big question: when do the Japanese, Chinese, and sheikhs sell their Treasuries en masse?
Is there anything the taxpayers are not paying for?
Their own well being.
C&C,
Let's talk again November 12th, shall we...
Wonder how this is going in Dubai?
The World
What a joke.
Whatever race of beings populates the planet after our demise, their mythical and religious texts will talk of those who previously inhabited the world and how the final sign of the end times were islands in frivolous shapes being built in the sea.
Then came the fire from the skies and the oceans turned upside down.
citizen energyecon writes:
C&C,
Let's talk again November 12th, shall we...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 11.06.08 - 2:30 pm | #
Next weeks oil #'s??
No, deflationary depression will make oil very very cheap, compared to prices today.
We have a fundamental disagreement with what sort of crash-recovery it will be. Am not in the deflationary depression camp.
Other than that our hypothesis seems to be similar in nature as with the time lines.
The Day Of Infamy:
3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/DTB3.txt
2008-09-17 Value = 0.03
Today @ 0.26
Go back to a year ago:
U.S. Three-Month Treasury Bill Yield Falls Most Since Oct. 1989
U.S. Three-Month Treasury Bill Yield Falls Most Since Oct. 1989 - Bloomberg.com
The yield on the three-month Treasury bill fell 0.61 percentage point to 4.025 percent, the lowest since 2005 and the biggest single-day decline since Oct. 13, 1989.
The tumble in yields came after Merrill Lynch & Co. lowered its rating on Countrywide Financial Corp....
Not good!
"Hell, if its -380 today, wait until tomorrow. I'm slow now, waiting for the 201K crowd to come in."
Good point. Two ugly days back to back could prompt some tasty "market on close" sell orders in the next few days. I actually contributed to that on Tuesday. Had feathered in about 15% of my 401k to an index fund in mid-October in a (mostly unsuccessful) attempt to play a nice bounce off the bottom. Took advantage of the election day 5-percenter to get back out (Fidelity active trader classification and the accompanying fund transfer restriction be damned) with about 1% profit. And I was happy to have it.
"That's the big question: when do the Japanese, Chinese, and sheikhs sell their Treasuries en masse?"
Once the U.S.A starts paying bills with Treasury Notes, instead of Federal Reserve Notes.
The folks in Dubai seems to be on the right track, what else they gonna do with a declining oil supply and dubious store of revenue, i.e, the USD.
Build and they will come.. sooner or later.
Better than ending up with heaps of toilet paper.
horrible retail sales, employment not so hot, credit mess--don't talk about it.
Big rally friday?
Crispy&Cole:
Next weeks oil #'s??
Bretton Woods III international shouting match.
Dubai is like Exxon buying Montgomery Wards...to much cash laying around and you make dumb decisions
Interesting, B-.
When do you think that happens?
The Talmud notes that after the destruction of the Second Temple, in 70 AD, the price of wheat fell considerably, but people were starving in the street.
Paper money came later.
Whatever race of beings populates the planet after our demise, their mythical and religious texts will talk of those who previously inhabited the world and how the final sign of the end times were islands in frivolous shapes being built in the sea.
Then came the fire from the skies and the oceans turned upside down.
ac | 11.06.08 - 2:30 pm | #
You know ac, I thought the exact thing when I saw this on Discovery Channel, however my thought was not nearly as eloquent as yours.
I just thought this is a sign that the end of the world is close.
Really, the audacity is amazing.
Big rally friday?
Here's my prediction:
Every 100k over -500k in the unenjoyment number is good for 100 points on the dow.
-500 -> flat
-400 -> +100
-300 -> +200
-200 -> free ponies for everyone, +500
@When do you think that happens?
The instant Junior figures out it is not in his best interest to service the debt that Grandpa ran up.
*Mobil Oil (bought WM)
What's happening with the crime rate in Vegas with all the minimal employment?
That one concerns me quite a bit, and not only for Vegas.
-200 -> free ponies for everyone, +500
I think so...
"That one concerns me quite a bit, and not only for Vegas."
I share that concern. In the absence of hope and the presence of poverty...
New thread
Waldman
has plausible analysis of why Bernanke went along with TARP:
"Cynics can easily find reasons for Secretary Paulson to have favored the original TARP proposal. But why did Dr. Bernanke play along?
Here's a possibility: Sometime in the middle of September, the Fed hit its balance sheet constraint. Dr. Bernanke could not have provided liquidity on the scale he thought necessary to support the financial system without injecting unsterilized new cash into the banking system and potentially sparking inflation or a run on the dollar. At that moment, the U.S. Federal Reserve lost its independence entirely. In order to pursue the policy its technocrats thought best, it required large-scale funding from the US Treasury. Dr. Bernanke had to negotiate with Secretary Paulson, whose nickname "The Hammer" is not a tribute to his love of carpentry. A deal was struck, and the Supplementary Financing Program was born."
Helicopter Ben chickened out when it came time to lift off? This is plausible to me. Given that, Paulson should be run out of town on a rail.
Reno is probably feeling the pain also. Nevada - It really should have the population of Iceland.
GM has Congress over a barrel. Either they give GM the amount on the ransom note or they turn their former employees over to the Pension Guaranty & the currents to unemployment rolls.
That's like a kidnapper demanding more hostages.
Went to the first YearlyKos in Las Vegas.
Cheap labor supplied by illegal immigrants. Crack whores. Depressed people everywhere.
It's a monument to human stupidity, much like the stock market or the housing market. Free money! Get your free money right here!
God, I sound like a conservative. Sorry.
Las Vegas? You can have it.
*****NEW THREAD*****
//END BANTER
Panda, people have been speculating Bernanke went along with the TARP because he needed the Feds to refill his balance sheet from the announcement. Even Bernanke haters thought he wouldn't support something as creepy as the TARP and had to have some gun to his head to make him go along.
Is it just me, or has anyone else never heard of a Christian bank?
Volker the Viking | 11.06.08 - 1:47 pm | #
And they charge interest just like everyone else!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Last thing about Vegas.
Asian Whales are gone the way of the sperm whale.
Midweek conventions were for consumer based industries. Say bye bye to that.
Vegas has a jugular at McCarin Airport.
If Southwest has no conventioneers to haul around on weekdays cost for weekend only operations go skyhigh.
Casinos will have to turn off the lights mon to thrs. Weekenders will only be drivers from SoCal.
Indian Casinos in CA offer old vegas prices on food and rooms and soon no one is going to Vegas.
C&C,
While trying to discuss this in a data driven fashion with you is a timewaster, there may be other folks here who are interested in what is actually signified in the peak oil concept - this is largely for their benefit.
Quite to the contrary of your recurring theme, the peak oil concept dates back to the time that oil was selling for $3-$6 barrel (the '50s). A geologist named M. King Hubbert posited that the US would reach a peak production rate and then go into an irreversible decline (a phenomenon that all oil fields and eventually provinces experience). This occurs when about half of all the oil that can be extracted has been pumped.
With respect to the current collapse of the speculative bubble in crude prices (along with pretty much all other commodities), it is part of three general price drivers: a structural price cycle that is a function of the long lead times that it takes to bring large oil projects into production (~10 years), supply/demand balances that bobble from quarter to quarter as a function of economic activity and cartel actions, and the financialization of commodity prices where huge money inflows in recent years have far exceeded the depth of those markets driving the speculative bubble.
But to answer your question, November 12th is when the IEA comes out with their latest World Energy Outlook and their very first supply survey based on a bottoms-up approach of existing production and decline rates along with scheduled new production from the announced IOC and NOC project pipeline.
Anyone want in on these sweet Peptobismol shots?
Good news! The supply of hookers goes up and the demand goes down...what happens to prices. If it rolls, floats, flyes or f**ks...lease it.
MS- your cranes in Dubai stat is unbelievable. God help us, godwilling. We must pray to Mecca in unison such that Dubai does not collapse.
Where is Obama, our savior? We will save Dubai if no one will.
Kona writes:
Also keep an eye on Lear Corp.
I can't believe Lear is still afloat. Same w/ TRW, Delphi, Magna, etc.
bearly writes:
GM has Congress over a barrel. Either they give GM the amount on the ransom note or they turn their former employees over to the Pension Guaranty & the currents to unemployment rolls.
bearly | 11.06.08 - 2:01 pm | #
Yup. Nice to have options.
I like to play the slot machines.
Just got back from a company wide meeting. 10% of employees were laid off between our Vegas offices and Kentucky warehouse.
10% of employees were laid off between our Vegas offices and Kentucky warehouse.
Shaquille O'Neal
Hard times hit bourbon?
Back from Vegas. Two nites at Ballys Fri/Sat $260 per nite. Room service 1/2 pot of coffee (enough for 2) was $20. Dinner for 4 at Paris Eiffel Tower restaurant nearly $500 w/tip. Cheap? At those rates who can afford to gamble? Single cup of coffee at Paris $6. Rum & coke (well drink) with beer was $15. Round of drinks at Paris/Bally's dueling piano bar was $41,$46 w/tip (2 Amarettos, 2 Lite beers). Stateline/Primm for now on for me. These people are insane