What, you want us to share!

holding this spot for Nemo

Bit of a duration mismatch I should think old chap, tally ho, wot?

hank to ppt: I'm trying to fill your account, but I keep getting not authorized.

Emanuel to become Obama chief of staff
| Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Rep. Rahm Emanuel, a combative Illinois Democrat, has accepted President-elect Barack Obama's offer to become White House chief of staff in the new administration, according to two sources on Capitol Hill.

Anyone know if that means anything?

But they've got the London School. How could this be happening to them?

How long until central banks are making mortgage loans directly?

Pepto that's delicious.

Don't quote me on this, but I'd say we are going to be looking at a fine short trade going into EOD.

fine short trade going into EOD.

Mr. Market poking his head out, so you can reload......

EvilHenryPaulson --

Emanuel is very smart and very abrasive. Probably not a good sign if you were hoping for early signs of bipartisanship. Probably a good sign if you were hoping for the opposite.

EvilHenry: go to Gawker.com they're all over this story. Pelosi said, I think, that Emanuel was the architect of our trillion dollar golden parachute. I believe her.

penetrated 8800, the bazooka is out

Mortgage lenders refuse to pass on base rate cut

Which means... they still have huge holes in their balance sheets?

And the English equivalent of "you can lead a banker to money, but you can't make him lend."

Christ, doesn't matter what country you're in, these guys are scum.

And you wonder just how bad the books are? I can't decide if they actually know or if they're just scared to death.

Despite supporting the bailout, which is a huge black mark, Emanuel is smart, aggressive, liberal, young.

No passing on the interest rate cut?

Those bankers are truly wankers.

As always, I wonder what the counterfactual is here. Maybe the credit crunch has increased the risk premium, so that the rate cut still produced rates lower than the otherwise would have been.

I have finally come to understand that supporting the bailout was a necessity for Dems ... or the Republicans would have hung them out to dry. "So-and-so voted AGAINST saving your job and your home."

Are they asking bankers to lend long term based on short term rates?

What it really means is that Fitch will be awarding Entourage the Palme d'âne this year at the festival.

RE Emanuel;

Israel won't have to worry about slackening of support from the USG.

On the relationship between bankers and central banks:

Waldman  has plausible analysis of why Bernanke went along with TARP:

"Cynics can easily find reasons for Secretary Paulson to have favored the original TARP proposal. But why did Dr. Bernanke play along?

Here's a possibility: Sometime in the middle of September, the Fed hit its balance sheet constraint. Dr. Bernanke could not have provided liquidity on the scale he thought necessary to support the financial system without injecting unsterilized new cash into the banking system and potentially sparking inflation or a run on the dollar. At that moment, the U.S. Federal Reserve lost its independence entirely. In order to pursue the policy its technocrats thought best, it required large-scale funding from the US Treasury. Dr. Bernanke had to negotiate with Secretary Paulson, whose nickname "The Hammer" is not a tribute to his love of carpentry. A deal was struck, and the Supplementary Financing Program was born."

Helicopter Ben chickened out when it came time to lift off? This is plausible to me. Given that, Paulson should be run out of town on a rail.

Anoddamoose --

So whenever the Dems vote for a bad idea, that's the Republicans' fault?

Might want to have your logic unit checked out.

Personally, I hold each politician responsible for their own votes. Guess I'm just stupid that way.

London financiers are certainly efficient! They started their crash over a year after the US and they've already almost caught up!

You can't force them to lend so this shouldn't be much of a surprise.....

Ciao
MS

Emanuel is very smart and very abrasive. Probably not a good sign if you were hoping for early signs of bipartisanship. Probably a good sign if you were hoping for the opposite.
Nemo

That is the conventional wisdom. And it may well be correct.

My take on it, is that as a CEO, I want a chief of staff that has my back. I want someone I trust and that I don't have to check on too much.

I want to be the diplomat, mister outside. My CofS is the SOB. And he stays mister inside.

Just one man's opinion. I could be wrong.

And to think, I thought this RE mess was "contained."

Yeah, contained to the universe!!!!!!!!!!

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Market getting a stiffy!

safe_as_apartments' Market Timing and Price Forecast update:

S&P + 45.9 by close.

Fair Economist, I was thinking the same thing ... nice job in making up for lost time!

Best to all

What it really means is that Fitch will be awarding Entourage the Palme d'âne this year at the festival.

That's a good one. I think it means that life is trying a little too hard to imitate art. Ari Emmanuel, the Hollywood agent and brother of Rahm, has in his stable the actor Bradley Whitford, who played Chief of Staff on The West Wing.

Nemo - I voted against the incumbents who voted for the bailout, for that very reason.

Mortgage Lenders Refuse to Pass on Rate Cut as House Prices Plummet

Well of course, they're just trying to protect themselves in an extremely risky environment.

Once again we expect business to throw out all caution, restraint, and judgment in the name of economic growth.

Short-term that can work.

Longer-term you destroy the basis for the modern economy - sensible use of resources and trust between economic actors.

REBear,

I think they're just hoping that the lenders will allow the borrowers reduced rates for a certain time so that the borrowers can hopefully try and restructure their budgets without going bankrupt. More consumer bankruptcies, more foreclosures, more bank losses, more bank failures... vicious cycle eh Jeeves?

One of those times when greed is not the right answer. Fear is actually the right answer... and fear ought to drive capitalist decisions.

Nice OT chart on short term yields, which may relate to LIBOR and UK rates, in some distorted way?

Graph: 3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate (WTB3MS) - FRED - St. Louis Fed

Have a nice day!

Bit of a duration mismatch I should think old chap, tally ho, wot?
Nemo

Nemo you spent too much time on that one and missed your spot.

If you'd stopped at "old chap" I think you would have nailed it.

Farallon Flagship Fund Lost 23.8% Through October, Sells Stocks

Farallon Flagship Fund Lost 23.8% Through October, Sells Stocks - Bloomberg.com 
Farallon Capital Management LLC's biggest hedge fund fell 23.8 percent this year through October, according to two people familiar with the matter, all but ensuring its first annual loss since opening 22 years ago.

Smartest guys in the room are really just idiots with lots of testosterone.

Up, up and away in my beautiful balloon.....

Deflation or not, it's going to be a great time to buy commodities this winter

Remember Congress is a corporate entity - different Reps do things for different reasons. Some Dems thought the TARP was a good idea - Congressmen aren't necessarily economically savvy. Some have connections to financiers and stood to gain personally or through donations (the corruption inevitable with privately funded campaigns.) And some no doubt knew it stunk but thought they could get an advantage by painting the Repubs as endangering the economy. It's difficult to tease apart the motivations - even with inside info much of the relevant decisionmaking won't be discussed with anybody. Nobody would admit to wasting hundreds of billions to trap Repubs even if true.

Ooooh Ooooh look at all those stock bargains!!!

//END SNARK

Short list for SecTreas:

"Sources close to Mr. Obama's transition team say the short list for Treasury secretary includes four people: Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Lawrence Summers, who served as Treasury secretary under former President Bill Clinton; Paul Volcker, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve; and New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, a former executive at the Goldman Sachs investment bank."

I'd prefer Volcker.

it's going to be a great time to buy commodities this winter

Now is a great time to buy or sell commodities!

Let's see rates go higher to price risk, rates stay high to price risk...

my goodness, they are actually pricing risk!

Launch missiles!

WOW: FTSE drops over 5% on dumbass rate cut!

The Bank of England made a shock 1.5 percentage point cut in interest rates on Thursday to just 3 percent, their lowest level in more than half a century, as it seeks to prevent Britain from sliding into a deep recession.

That was the biggest official interest rate cut since the 1981 slump and completely wrong-footed analysts who had mostly been predicting a half-point reduction. Not one in 62 polled by Reuters had expected such a massive move.

Bring back Volcker.

Shoot the puppy while Junior cries and screams. That's why they pay central bankers.

Re: Emanuel

My take on it, is that as a CEO, I want a chief of staff that has my back. I want someone I trust and that I don't have to check on too much.

Apparently this is not the case with him. Last night's news had an ex-Clintonian on who said Emanuel has a big mouth. Apparently Emanuel leaked something to the press while under Clinton. Clinton called ex-Clintonian and asked him who the f else knew about this issue. He said Emanuel and Clinton said "you may as well have issued a f'ing press release".

Not good.

Lo, behold the glorious low from whenc e we shall launch. 'Twas a beautiful, bright shining beacon of eternal hope and enduring optimism.

Um. No.

My guess is he picks Lawrence Summers because all the boomers thought Clinton was fantastic.

I say.. Lions? In Africa??

Everyone got their bets down?

Four minutes til market open....

Jam, or Blam?

PSgirl --

Clinton called ex-Clintonian and asked him who the f else knew about this issue. He said Emanuel and Clinton said "you may as well have issued a f'ing press release".

Actually, after reading that, Emanuel just went up a few notches in my view...

Panda,
If Corzine made himself available, he would be great. He's like the anti-Paulson (in fact Paulson pulled off a coup to oust him, and then immediately dove in to subprime mortgages et al)
Volcker - old
Geithner - who's going to replace the key point man at the Fed funneling all the money
Summers - the odds on favourite

Dow getting firmly above 8800 this PM
(was 11,510 on Sept. 10)

I thought that the UK, unlike US had made conditions on the deals with banks?

It's 3:00pm, where is the PPT when you need them?

This guy says that foreigners have already stopped buying our (and ECB) toilet paper, as measured by Tanzi's/Bloomberg's weekly foreign reserve reports:

"The Strange Case of Falling International Reserves" by Hugo Salinas Price. FSO Editorial 11/06/2008

Yah, I vote Volcker. In hard times he'll make junior shoot his pet deer then carve it and smoke it into jerky.

Despite supporting the bailout, which is a huge black mark, Emanuel is smart, aggressive, liberal, young.

Okay, but what are his positive qualities?

"It's 3:00pm, where is the PPT when you need them?"

Shot their wad at 2. They're still having trouble adjusting to leaving DST.

PPT could be caught in Midtown traffic.

"hat's a good one. I think it means that life is trying a little too hard to imitate art. Ari Emmanuel, the Hollywood agent and brother of Rahm, has in his stable the actor Bradley Whitford, who played Chief of Staff on The West Wing"

Which makes me wonder if Aaron Sorkin of West Wing fame is related to the young Sorkin, cub economist at the New York Times.

Darn, selling before the witching hour. 8800 you were so lovely!

[Well of course, they're just trying to protect themselves in an extremely risky environment.]

I would argue it's a tad less risky at these levels that it was in 2006 when they were tripping over their dicks to give out loans. Stick a 20% down condition and lowering rates a bit doesn't sound too risky, in comparison.

EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Page Not Found | Reuters.com  t...eedName=topNews
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Rep. Rahm Emanuel, a combative Illinois Democrat,...

Anyone know if that means anything?

I think it means that Obama is planning on hitting it hard and hitting the ground running in pursuit of his middle class tax cuts, Main st. stimulus etc. I don't see a partisan message. I see it will be hard for a few Senate Repubs. not to support Obama, join the Dems and block filibusters.

You want dumb? You've had dumb. You can't handle dumb.

Hey, could someone please ask Bush to quit trashing the White House for a moment and wake up the Plunge Protection team

Eric,
Remember how you made fun of opex?

CNBC's big explanation is that the sell-off now is in anticipation of a sell off come Nov15 for hedge fund redemptions and that purplemonkeydishwasher

re: sec.treas -- when another goldman guy is the best choice, we're in bad shape.

PSgirl --

Because I think the biggest problem with our government is that the public has too little view into what actually goes on.

So in general, I like leaks.

(I also like anything that makes Bill Clinton mad. But that's more of a personal thing.)

Obi writes:
Hey, could someone please ask Bush to quit trashing the White House for a moment and wake up the Plunge Protection team

He's drunk, doing lines in the Oval office. Can't reason with the man when he's like this

Oh yeah, Rahm is Jewish, so you can blame him. Or Bernanke. Or Bernie Sanders.

That TreasSec list is pretty depressing. Volcker is the only one I like and he's old. My choice - of the politically relevant ones - is Krugman, who's an expert on financial crises and international trade, and who has been ahead of the curve on spotting the bubble. I wish he understood Austrian credit cycles, but no reasonable possibility does so ohwell. Sadly he picked the wrong horse in the primaries and got into a nasty spat with Obama over health care mandates.

Krugman is out, can't have too many Jews at once.

CNBC's big explanation is that the sell-off now is in anticipation of a sell off come Nov15

Well, they'd feel pretty stupid saying "it's down because there's more sellers than buyers".

And it would be un-American to say, "it's down because these are the most horrific economic numbers we've ever seen, and everyone should go to cash, if not outright short this puppy".

Noble,
will allow the borrowers reduced rates for a certain time

Thanks. Hopefully they will push the problem past election day. Smile

As long as Maxine Waters is SecState, I'll be cool. Somebody from the "club" will be at Treas anyway.

ppt to hank: we're firing our bazookas it's just that the enemy seems to be made of jello

I can't believe Dollar Tree (DLTR) is currently priced at $3.51bn (up 50% YTD, 12% YoY)

I may have never seen or visited one, but I do know dollar stores have low margins and Wal Mart has plans to take over their turf in the near future as cities stop blocking their developments in a bad economy

Amen, Comrade Tinman !!!

"re: sec.treas -- when another goldman guy is the best choice, we're in bad shape."

"As long as Maxine Waters is SecState"

if you're gonna go that far papa, why not Cynthia McKinney?

that would be fun...

On the contrary, Mr OneWorldCurrency, we've already had "smart".

All those GS guys were the smartest people in the world and look at how much money they made.

Do I need another "smart" and "young" guy in the White House that knows everything about very little? Smile Heck, we already have KashNKarry, right?

So... once again, what are his positive qualities? Sure would like to hear a positive answer instead of quippy comebacks.

Evidently Emmanual doesn't f#ck around. After Bill got elected in 1992, Emmanual, at a celebratory dinner, got on a table with a steak knife and starting naming names of those who betrayed the team. He followed each naming by driving his steak knife into the table and shouting "dead, they're dead to us now". I like the guy

Spitzer getting off all charges
CNBC still airing a high-end prostitution special tonight (some CEO must be petty...)

bounced off 8800 again (3:02)

Hmmm.. this from a now deleted random thread:

"I went to high school with Aaron Sorkin's little brother, who is Andrew Ross Sorkin, staff reporter for the New York Times. We were in the same AP French class and we were merciless to one another."

Apparently Maureen Dowd mashes them up in her head too:

I went to high school with Aaron Sorkin's little brother, who is Andrew Ross Sorkin, staff reporter for the New York Times. We were in the same AP French class and we were merciless to one another.

Where's spammer Rob to tell us to go short?

So... once again, what are his positive qualities?

He's a Chicago machine politician, just like Obama. He's a pit bull. Make of it what you will.

600 Down?

700 down?

Where does Frazier land?

Not sure how many times I've posted this, but I'll try again:

Volcker is NOT going to have any significant position in an Obama administration.

Not SecTreas.

Not Chariman of the Fed.

He's "economic advisor" window dressing. The unions would scream bloody murder if Volcker's policies were implemented.

Liberal is positive for me. Didn't you see the vote? No longer taboo. Even the Governator used the word taxes.

selling a sell-off?

Wow that's a stretch even for CNBC.

Ciao
MS

"Despite supporting the bailout, which is a huge black mark, Emanuel is smart, aggressive, liberal, young."

Okay, but what are his positive qualities?

He hasn't been beaten around enough by real life to be self-doubting, restrained, conservative, and old.

Four years from now may be a different matter...

oneworldcurrency yogi writes:
Oh yeah, Rahm is Jewish, so you can blame him. Or Bernanke. Or Bernie Sanders.

I'm glad someone else here finds SheenyHunt 2008 to be absurdist theatre.

I think of it a a light libretto of cotton-candy prejudice before the hardcore basso profundo DK "beaners and immigrant visa holders" tuba-and-tympanum blasts of hate.

"self-doubting, restrained, conservative, and old."

You want Greenspan back?

"He followed each naming by driving his steak knife into the table and shouting "dead, they're dead to us now". I like the guy"

Yeah, he's like a cross between Joe Pesci in Goodfellas, Ron Reagan Jr., and Tevyeh from Fiddler on the Roof.

just as long as there is no clarinet in the bathtub

"self-doubting, restrained, conservative, and old."

You want Greenspan back?

Huh? I think the phrase "often wrong, but never in doubt" was coined for Greenspan.

BR,

lol! +1

C&C,

answer for your Nov. 12 question on the last thread
HaloScan.com - Comments

Do you really want Jas Jain as White House of Staff?

ac,
If Rahm is anything like Ari Gold from Entourage whom is based off his brother, then he will have really good insults and chutzpah. If that's the case, I would be willing to support him. Entourage is the one must watch tv show. Seriously, if you don't want him I'll see about getting him the Prime Minister of Canada job

Liberal is positive for me. Didn't you see the vote? No longer taboo. Even the Governator used the word taxes.

See I think everybody defines these ideologies the way they want to.

I actually think of actually paying for the stuff you buy to be a more old fashioned kind of thing to do. Like they did back in the day.

Apparently, you can't push on a string in the UK either. Maybe if you do it in the Southern Hemisphere...

Oh, I missed the opportunity to mention in the indicators thread that the Baltic Dry Index  is up for the 2nd day running. This isn't necessarily good, because rates are so low they are often below operating costs, so maybe ships are just getting mothballed. But, better than continuing declines.

TIP insanity now on the 10yr. 10yr TIP 2.79, 10 yr treasury 2.71.

I guess you missed the hearing.

Camrade Tinman mentioned: "... why not Cynthia McKinney?"

That would be more fun than Jocelyn Elders was!

RE: Chief of Staff

Emanuel is all about total control. His goal is to make sure that in 2012 he can get enough Republicans kicked out of office as possible. He will try to keep the wheels turning for 2 years while he puts the screws to the vunerable seats in congress.

PLAN:
2 years of fixing things the same way as now.
2 years of blaming Wall Street.
2 years of Wall St = GOP
2 years of GOP = problems
2 years of no GOP = NO PROBLEMS
Roll Dice........

I am not a neo-con. I only can point out the obvious.

RE will be playing bad cop - "Do you want to talk to me or do you want to talk to Rahm?"

A this point I rejoice at the prospect of competence.

In a nutshell isn't lenders' behavior here tantamount to saying that they no longer wish to be in the lending business?

ac @253 re trust:

Sorry, but destroy trust?

That horse is long out of the barn and the banking community has screwed itself in the eyes of a lot of people.

They're like deer in the headlights and when they finally have to lend, esp given the facilities that they've been given, they hold it close.

They are sealing their own doom IMO. If this is the kind of behavior that they exhibit, then they really are courting full nationalization with the inherent wipeout.

And most people would probably go along with that.

Hell, I'd dance.

Let's push this sucker down. I wanna see Charlie Gasbag foaming at the mouth.

Fair Economist,
Clarium was unwinding a whack-load of bets that the 10yr-30yr spread would narrow. Having to unwind would dump 10yrs and narrow the spread against the 10yr TIPS.

"He followed each naming by driving his steak knife into the table and shouting "dead, they're dead to us now". I like the guy"

Bluto from Animal House...

Entourage is the one must watch tv show.

I usually try to work my way through all those HBO series. I really got a kick out of Deadwood, in addition to the more obvious series like the Sopranos et. al.

For some reason the local video store doesn't have the first season of Entourage so I haven't gotten around to it. Maybe I'll just break down and buy the set.

Just think of all the busted retirement dreams. The boomers are now the busters. Had to happen of course. All booms are followed by busts.

There is a reason home equity & stock values are not counted as savings in the NIPA.

Bernanke should have seen this coming. The man is a dingbat.

omedad43 wrote:
Christ, doesn't matter what country you're in, these guys are scum.

First we bash them for lending money because they are greedy scum, then we bash them because they won't lend.

If you are so inclined get the capital together and start a bank...you lend your money.

Let's see, little volume = DOW up.
large volume = DOW down.

Yep. Just checking reality.

Is it 5 0'clock yet?

You can't force them to lend so this shouldn't be much of a surprise.....
MS | 11.06.08 - 2:51 pm | #

Can't force people to borrow as well...

oneworldcurrency yogi writes:
Oh yeah, Rahm is Jewish,

I'm calling you out, this is a throw down. Stop with the bigotry.

PsGirl: Re Emmanuel--nothing happened by accident in the Clinton Admin. If he leaked something, it was for a reason.

More lending will only make things worse. We have too much debt and too little income.

We need debt defaults. Sad, but true.

Sometimes caution sucks. On M & Tu, I feathered into half a dozen EEV November 100 calls in the $4-$5 range. A voice in my brain was telling me to back the margin account up on that as it looked like a license to print money. Cashed out of half of them at over $1k/contact profit today. Gonna let the rest ride for a bit longer in my own game of press your luck. Guess I'll take solace in the theory that any win in this market is a good win.

Drag the bastards out in the street and give them the beat down.

Volker:
I'm calling you out, this is a throw down. Stop with the bigotry.

I think he's on your side, Volkster.

Ms Whitney put a hex on C yesterday. Single digits it shall be.

"Can't force people to borrow as well..."

Entirely different set of circumstances. If you make it prohibitively expensive to do so by not passing on rate cuts intended for those very people then you have what has unfolded here already.

They are just late in execution....by about a year.

Ciao
MS

ac,
Entourage is a show that would have 20 something males as the target audience. It's worth watching from episode 1 if you can, but plays great if you just jump in at the beginning of any season. Just don't want you to be misled or disappointed.

That was sarcastic. Follow the thread.

Angry Saver writes:
Just think of all the busted retirement dreams. The boomers are now the busters. Had to happen of course. All booms are followed by busts.

Anecdotal evidence confirms this. Quite a number of boomers 1) cannot retire, 2) are being laid off, 3) are having hours cut, 4) and all 3.

Underemployment will be the next statistic to closely watch after unemployment.

Based on voting turn-out, we may find civil unrest once again.

More Christmas cheer...

Fidelity to Cut 2.9% of Jobs, Plans a Second Round (Update2)
By Christopher Condon

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Fidelity Investments, the world's largest mutual-fund manager, plans to cut about 1,290 jobs this month and fire more employees in the first quarter of next year after client assets fell 13 percent.

The initial dismissals represent 2.9 percent of its 44,440 workers, Boston-based Fidelity said in a statement today. The company, whose Magellan and Contrafund have been among the industry's worst performers, didn't say how many jobs will be eliminated next year or how much it expects to reduce expenses.

Fidelity to Cut 2.9% of Jobs, Plans a Second Round (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

I can imagine that TIPS are suffering from deflation pressure and a liquidity premium during a flight to safety.

Yesterday was first 30- and 10-year Treasury auction since the market collapsed, official results next week.

All leaks are good.

re: whitney...she may have but they are protected.....I just can't see them dropping under 10 at all. Now if they were to be aligned with say MS...then the die will be cast.

I'm just glad I sold off calls in C on Tuesday!!

Ciao
MS

we have a double top in the 2-3 pm slot on the Dow at about 8800
is Hank going for a hat trick?

Based on voting turn-out, we may find civil unrest once again.

/Which is a good thing because we can get back to the business of selling t-shirts, baseball caps, bumper stickers, and have concerts where we can pay and download the mp3...

/eff

safe_as_apartments,
That's the thing though. TIPS pay their coupon guaranteed, + CPI so long as CPI is positive. It's a treasury with free CPI bonus right now

With all the bad news, why is the market going down? Retail reports should be good for at least +200.

Surprise, surprise. It's the United States of Goldman Sachs. What should we expect?

Sorry, but destroy trust?

That horse is long out of the barn and the banking community has screwed itself in the eyes of a lot of people.

The ultimate destruction of trust, especially in the government has not yet occurred. The dollar is an implicit contract with the government and if we destroy that then all trust is gone.

People need to remember that being and enlightened culture, our society is no longer bound by ideology or religion or patriotism or nationalism.

We our bound together by the single-minded pursuit of money.

Destroy the money and the whole thing comes flying apart.

That's the only thing that binds us, good will, social consciousness, Santa Claus, and the Easter Bunny notwithstanding.

Obama, please save us!

(O-shit!)

"Shot their wad at 2. They're still having trouble adjusting to leaving DST."

HAH!

I've said over and over: the central bank can push money out the door, but they cannot control where it goes.
It can go to speculation, bubbles, hoarding, buyouts.
Maybe this is why the US ended up doing massive public works to try to get out of the First Great Depression. Maybe that lesson hasn't yet been absorbed.
Something about leading a pony to water, I think...

That's the thing though. TIPS pay their coupon guaranteed, + CPI so long as CPI is positive. It's a treasury with free CPI bonus right now

They don't adjust the principle down during deflation? I thought they did, but the floor was par. So, if the principal was adjusted upwards, it's got some room to fall...

DryShips Falls After Saying It May Not Meet Loan Covenants
By Todd Zeranski

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- DryShips Inc., a transporter of commodities including iron ore and coal, fell as much as 22 percent after saying it may not be able to pay off its loans.

DryShips fell as much as $4.23 to $15.07 and was down 20 percent to $15.43 at 1:05 p.m. in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. Its shares have fallen 80 percent this year, reducing its market value to $673 million.

The company may not be able to raise enough money to pay off loan commitments if low charter rates continue, Athens-based DryShips said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing today. The company said it may sell as much as 25 million shares from time to time to help raise capital.

DryShips Falls, Says It May Not Meet Loan Covenants (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

I think he's on your side, Volkster.
Byzantine_Ruins

If he is then I take it back. But, it seems to my ears that there's some antisemite rhetoric going on. I suggest the bigots and anti race folk hie themselves to Sean Hannity. It's offensive.

So 11/12 is the oil date and 11/15 is the potential reveal of the asian/euro get-together (Ty says "let's show Mr and Mrs. America what the wonderful asian/euro contractors have done with their national house!" and the bus moves to reveal a really, really large appliance box).

Both could be bad. How to play this? Short everything or just party at CSC's house?

Seriously. How to play this?

safe_as_apartments,
That principal argument only applies if you sell the thing during the deflation. So long as things are deflating, there's not many returns better than a guaranteed coupon.

From the looks of the last 45 minutes, the bazooka might be running low on ammo. The last half-hour is setting up to be either truly ugly or the follow-through on a glorious head fake.

serf Alan Greenspend;

Thank you for the link to interfluidity.com two threads back. Interesting reading.

I say the party with CSC, but only if you are in trim shape... Wink

I second Volker.

Ironic? Sounds like rationalization of irony, that's a cloak.

topical or topically off-topical please.

or I must vote you off the island and the 4 Ponymen shall cometh...

Citi is a black hole. They have $1 trillion is off balance sheet "assets".

Goldman is sink hole too. Look at how they expanded their balance sheet over the past 5 years. How likely is it all those assets (bought with leverage) are worth more today than when they bought them? It's even worse when one considers the huge bonus payouts over the past 5 years.

C & GS are bankrupt imo. The only question is if the fed can keep them afloat.

What a sham.

DOJ: Insufficient evidence to bring charges against Spitzer

DOJ: Insufficient evidence to bring charges against Spitzer

SPX < 900 / INDU < 85k at the close?

we were looking for the mythical cerebrus formation today in the ppt show today from 2-4pm on Dow. So far two heads have appeared, which only qualifies for the side show at the county fair. we are looking for bold bazooka fire from hank, but are disappointed so far

Gotta love this post 'bama rally !

I don't disagree with any of that re: C and GS.....fighting intervention at every step is what I'm talking about. They will remain operating but in what form is the question.

C goes kaput before GS though. Paulson still needs a warm seat.

Ciao
MS

EHP,

I don't think YTM is the same for TIPS and Treasuries. Nobody knows what the final principal amount will be for a TIPS issue--only that it will not be less than $100.

USD/JPY approaching 97.50...will we have a crowded exit today?

Angry Saver,

I vote no. This is black-hole economics.

Create monetary sink-hole. Print money and pour into hole.

Wash...Rinse...Repeat

I wonder if they'll pass the cut on to depositors?

Less than par, I mean.

Anyone played the new 3x ETFs yet? Buy one share and make 30% in 2 days!

"DOJ: Insufficient evidence to bring charges against Spitzer"

Translation: "we don't want to take a public 4th amendment ass-spanking."

"But, it seems to my ears that there's some antisemite rhetoric going on."

Yeah I like to flush it out. They use code words and look for "inflection points". Better to have it in the open.

Catwoman: [the submarine's been hit] Penguin you know I can't take water!
Penguin: You cowardly kitten! You want to live forever?

I'm 1/2 thinkin' the GM & F reports will be more of a shocker than jobs report...

safe_as_apartments,
Oh, you were talking about the Treasury adjusting par value? Heck no, that's my point. It can only go up if CPI is positive, otherwise it's flat.

Evil and other local gods,
planning to cover before market closes?

I look at the Emanuel appointment differently. For Obama to govern from (roughly) the center, he needs to quietly fight Reid and Pelosi. Emanuel will bulldoze them (quietly) when necessary. Great choice, IMO.

trading positions? Don't have much to cover...

Core positions? No way....

Ciao
MS

ac re trust:

I agree with you. But the trust issue will move to the government level if they permit these asshats to continue with this.

At this point, the banking community looks like the freeloading BIL that moves in, empties the fridge and molests the daughter. And when the police come, they ask him how things went.

The government will serve, IMO, to increase trust when they demonstrate to the general public that they can and will enforce things.

This trust/government/currency thing is something that I discussed with my congressman's financial guy during the bailout debacle.

@homedad43, second reference to horses in this thread (couldn't pass it up), "you can lead a banker to money, but you can't make him lend."

The creative version was by Dorothy Parker, "You can bring a whore to culture, but you can't make her think."

But, you knew that.
ChefVisar

Thread music for DK

Is DK short for "Dick"?

DOW hanging on to 8700 pretty well. Sure would like to see that resistance broken.

hey any body else heard about Representative Miller wating to bring up Elimination of 401K's after being brought back to August values ????

"George Miller, who heads the House committee that deals with 401(k)s, about a month ago said, we have to eliminate this tax subsidy. The government is losing $80 billion a year. We can't afford to lose this kind of money. There are too many people that don't need this tax break anymore. So what we're going to do, we're going to take away the whole notion that you get to deduct from your gross whatever you contribute to your 401(k). The government needs that money. So one of the big incentives for having a 401(k) came under assault. Then that same committee two weeks later brought in an economist from the New School in New York called Teresa Ghilarducci.
She wants to basically eliminate the 401(k), and the way she wants to do it is she wants to go to people who have a 401(k), who have seen its asset value plummet because of the market plunge. So she wants to go back to August levels. Everybody that has a 401(k), we'll take you back and we'll give you money. We'll restore the value. The government will. We're just going to print some money here, and we're going to restore your 401(k) to its August amount. We're going to take your 401(k), and we will put it in your Social Security account that the government is monitoring for you, and we will invest every year 3% in government bonds. We'll buy government bonds so that your 401(k) will grow at 3% every year adjusted for inflation. The most that you will be able to contribute to your 401(k) every year is 5% of what you earn.
And then when you retire, your 401(k), and plus there's a $600 annual addition that she formulates here because she finds it inequitable that some people get a 36% tax deduction and some don't because the various income tax rates that affect how much of a deduction you get. So the bottom line is, they'll take your 401(k) and put it in Social Security. They give you 3% a year plus 5% of your gross added, and then at the end when you retire, you get one check. Your Social Security check plus whatever your 401(k) is. The government takes over your 401(k). Not so much flushes it, they just take it, like they're going to take some pension money.

EHP,

I believe that you are incorrect:

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, provide protection against inflation. The principal of a TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. When a TIPS matures, you are paid the adjusted principal or original principal, whichever is greater.

Individual - Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)

PNC, last green financial on my screen just went red. It's a rout.

REBear,
I am not in anything, so nothing to cover. There's no good reason for the market to go up until its past the employment report, although this may be a safe way of getting out today.

blackhalo,

on a long-enough timeline, all resistance is futile.

of course on an even longer timeline all capitulation is futile.

The babe on Fox Business just created a new word, it was positivity.

"DOW hanging on to 8700 pretty well. Sure would like to see that resistance broken."

SPX is holding the forward sortie line at 903ish. I wonder if the forward reserve units will stop Patton's tanks from reaching and crossing the Rhine by 4 PM if there's a breach.

Yawn...is it time to wake up yet and watch the markets?

20 minutes before close - heck I can sleep a while yet...

If markets keep tanking through BO's term, will Fox Business resort to jello wrestling, I hope?

ChefVisar:

Thanks, didn't know that.

Know about her, but not that.

Cool line.

Anyone catching the ping-pong match USD/JPY atm on the five minute?

I think that is some 'jamitivity' there lol

safe_as_apartments,
That's very good to know then. I thought the upward adjustments were safe. I was wrong evidently. Just did a quick comparison of 15 Jan 2010, implied expectation of -0.6% inflatio

Got my 902 and jumped on the SSO. Could really suck to be me in the AM...

Re: Miller 401k proposal

If that happens - and I can't believe an outright ponzi scheme like that will gain any traction - it will be the end of the US as currently known and understood.

No question about it.

babel fish,
I heard that testimony. I'd laugh at it if we were not in these times. I do think that would cause a real revolt...well, maybe in a few years they'll try in earnest.

more summerfun --

check out this cover of time from not so way back:

Steve Clemons: Will Obama's First Term Really Just be a Hybrid of Clinton III and GW Bush III?

GS @ 80 alarm going off?

long dated TIPS became an incredible deal earlier this week at real ytm of 3.4%+

now back to 3.0 still ok

Well the DOW is staging a genuine bona-fide electrified 100 pt rally up to 8800

ppt, getting back to work!

More thread music for DK:

YouTube -

Sorry, couldn't resist....

"Well the DOW is staging a genuine bona-fide electrified 100 pt rally up to 8800."

Looks like yesterday's late afternoon 100 point rally, doesn't it?

bearly-

thinking the same thing here.....

Luck to us....because that's about all it's going to be.

Ciao
MS

Assume Crash Positions! ,
Must be all those pension funds topping up eh

Yen carry on - risk appetite returning to market! mo' cowbell! lol

Yeah that. LOL. Premature PPTulation.

The government takes over your 401(k). Not so much flushes it, they just take it, like they're going to take some pension money

Ho ho ho.

Mer-ry Christmas.

I just emailed in my own proposal. About 1/3 of the houses in the US are paid off and many of them have "untapped equity" so I'm proposing that the Federal gov't

"unlock"

that equity by borrowing against it to help fund the budget deficit. They can issue shares in the "Untapped Housing Equity" corporation created by a special act of Congress!

18 lbs and lama...

what scares me is this is the same Miller that was opposed to Mexico employing coercion with union open voting , but then turned and favors it here....

Ladies and gentlemen, please head to the exits in a calm and orderly manner. Thank you for visiting the NYSE.

Broward Horne,
Social Security needs money, so how about issuing $500bn in pension obligation bonds. Dump all the proceeds into the stock market and prices will go up, and the bonds pay for themself. problem solved

ac writes:

People need to remember that being and enlightened culture, our society is no longer bound by ideology or religion or patriotism or nationalism.

We our bound together by the single-minded pursuit of money.

ac | 11.06.08 - 3:29 pm | #

Is that sarcasm?
To whose society do you refer?
In a world where billions still believe in something, rootless cosmopolitanism is doomed...
Someday there will be nowhere left to run, nowhere where you will fit in, forever a wanderer and an easy target.

18 Lbs of Chocolate sez If that happens - and I can't believe an outright ponzi scheme like that will gain any traction - it will be the end of the US as currently known and understood

Apparently you missed the Big Bailout debate. Smile

As I previously told Rob Dawg, this really isn't a monetary issue anymore, it's a gunpowder issue.

Marias' pumping the market pretty hard. Asked Dylan if he couldn't find guests who were more optimistic. She just sounds pathetic. If any one of those people could make money in the market they would. They can't, but will tell you how.

Leftys Liquors & Lubricants,
She's also been getting a lot uglier lately, and looks to be trying to hide a weight gain.

Can't CNBC at least get some hot anchors if they cannot find smart ones?

"Is that sarcasm?
To whose society do you refer?
In a world where billions still believe in something, rootless cosmopolitanism is doomed...
Someday there will be nowhere left to run, nowhere where you will fit in, forever a wanderer and an easy target."

Is that a threat? Is what you believe in making people targets?

Apparently you missed the Big Bailout debate.

As negatively as I view the bailout, that 401k proposal is at least an order of magnitude more damaging. Truly a "lights out" moment, if it happens.

Call me naive or hopeful, but I cannot believe it would be allowed to happen.

oneworldcurrency yogi writes:
Is that a threat? Is what you believe in making people targets?

I have to agree with him. Religion and group identity are technologies. If you eschew them, you're a luddite operating at a considerable economic and social advantage.

The question lies in how to order your moral and social compass, not if you need one.

oneworldcurrency yogi writes:

Is that a threat? Is what you believe in making people targets?

Don't be ridiculous. It is others who provide the threat. That is why we need some kind of nation, with its burdens to bear and shortcomings to face and correct.

DIS-advantage, rather. Der. Me rite gud.

I don't buy the Miller 401k thing - yet.

If it does to actually get some serious press and movement, then you're going to see a huge number of people selling out completely.

I'll sell it all, take the tax hit and take the family on a hell of a party.

Seriously, that is a gunpowder issue.

there may be other folks here who are interested in what is actually signified in the peak oil concept - this is largely for their benefit.

energyecon, I would be one of those that benefits. Thanks. Short term cycles was a reason for selling RIG back in July. And I expect to get back into RIG in the future.

Best,

The bright side of this declining market is that the second 5% down day in a row doesn't hurt as much in dollar terms as the first one.

Thank you Byzantine_Ruins.
I keep quiet because so many of you are so much better writers than I, including ac, who I appreciate.
This is not the place for it, but I have my own (sub)cultural reasons to find his post... unwise.

This isn't too hard to understand- the banks are insolvent. Any money that comes in is being used for balance sheet repair first. Of course, government nitwits don't care about solvency.

A nation is nice, and I believe in the Constitution, which tolerates different ideologies, religions, ethnicities, and even atheists. Obviously you missed ac's sarcasm. I have no idea why you brought up "easy targets".

The Wire was the best television show ever created. Highly recommend picking up the DVDs if you haven't seen it.

Entourage is the one must watch tv show.

I usually try to work my way through all those HBO series. I really got a kick out of Deadwood, in addition to the more obvious series like the Sopranos et. al.

energycon, I agree, I want to go back into energy too, but with the proposed penalty taxes against the oil companies, cap and trade taxes, and a world wide recession, that time grows further into future. Any buy in, except for the very short run, probably would have been negative. There were great profits in '05,06,07.

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