Damn you, Obama. You promised me those men would be decently treated.
President Obama: They were decently treated. They were decently fed and then they were decently shot. Those men are common outlaws, nothing more.
So how does that work? The Fed creates money to pay for the assets? or did the Fed already have the money?
Unless you've got an empty wallet, look at the owner of the note printed above the Dead Prez head on the front of the bill
Basel Too, much of this is coming from special auction by the Treasury and more bank deposits - so the expansion is sterilized.
From Brad Setser: That growth was financed by Treasury bill issuance ($560b from the supplementary financing facility) and a large rise in banks deposits at the Fed ($405b).
Josey Wales: When I get to likin' someone, they ain't around long.
Lone Watie: I notice when you get to DISlikin' someone they ain't around for long neither.
Talks about the increasing Fed balance sheet. Also mentions that Japan's central bank balance sheet hit 30% of GDP, so we've still got some room to grow
re: $427bn in bank deposits at Fed Reserve (up from ~7.5bn a year ago), good luck on them having any value unless the banks keep getting bailed out. They're not the deposits you grew up with, they're the toxic sludge the banks can't move. Beware of Hold to Maturity pricing.
So in that sense, a few hundred billion are only temporarily sterilized
No charges for ex-NY governor in prostitution case
Federal prosecutors said Thursday that they will not bring criminal charges against Eliot Spitzer for his role in a prostitution scandal..
U.S. Attorney Michael Garcia said investigators found no evidence that Spitzer or his office misused public or campaign funds for prostitution. ...federal prosecutors typically do not prosecute clients of prostitution rings."
Does he get his old job back? It never was about the call girls; it was always about Sptizer exposing Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Bearn Stearns rigged bidding and other misconduct selling investments and derivatives, such as interest-rate swaps, tied to municipal bonds. .
The $605 billion in mortgage assets is mind-boggling. But more remarkable to me is this from the Bloomberg piece:
"Robert Traficanti, Citigroup's deputy controller, sent a letter to FASB Chairman Robert Herz on June 9 objecting to a provision that would force banks to reevaluate their off-balance-sheet assets and liabilities every quarter. Citigroup has more than 7,000 VIEs and more than 100 QSPEs, he wrote."
We believe that this model is impractical from an operational standpoint,'' Traficanti wrote.We would not be able to perform this analysis given the resources we currently have. We would need to hire many more accountants.''
So they really don't know what their exposure is, since they don't have the staff to evaluate it on a routine basis now. That seems like grounds for a shareholder lawsuit alleging reckless negligence on management's part. Amazing.
Downpuppy,the chart is in trillions - so $100 billion is just that small increase from just under $2 trillion last week to almost $2.1 trillion this week.
Lockstep: It's what's on the balance sheet that's crucial.
If it's 20% of GDP value is really crap, then you've got trouble.
Earlier this year, Krugman noted that he used to teach the difference between developed countries central banks' balance sheets and emerging/undeveloped banks' balance sheets was the quality of assets. Developed countries balance sheets were usually nice t-bill (or the like) dominated clean sheets while undeveloped countries had a bunch of weird stuff in them.
Now our central bank balance sheet is getting crappier and messier every day.
Calculated Risk writes:
Downpuppy,the chart is in trillions - so $100 billion is just that small increase from just under $2 trillion last week to almost $2.1 trillion this week.
Perhaps he was confused by this statement:
The Federal Reserve assets increased from $105 billion this week to $2.075 trillion.
OT on this thread but dealing with a few posts on the last; in Greece the value added tax (almost equivalent to the sales tax in the US)goes from 9-19 at present and is likely to go up. Others more well-informed than I will be able to inform us of the actual differences in the two taxes (VAT and sales tax) if they exist.
With regard to the FT piece on quantitative easing, I think that it is clear that a chunk of the yen printed by the BoJ didn't sit in vaults. It was shipped around the world via the carry trade to fuel inflation. That was because there were very few worthwhile investments in Japan itself. The author argues that quantitative easing in Japan failed. I would disagree in that by propping up US consumption through the carry trade, Japan's exporters were protected from lower sales. Now that the carry trade has gone bust, we see Japan's exporters suffering the consequences. Shrinking foreign demand and the strengthening of the yen are killing them.
Calculated Risk writes: Basel Too, much of this is coming from special auction by the Treasury and more bank deposits - so the expansion is sterilized.
Is it real sterilized if the assets would otherwise have defaulted into worthlessness by now?
Will the FED backstop states bad investments? States should reclaim the states missing Wall Street money, found in the states Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. I here there's billions of dollars there from state enterprise and investment activities. I here that money is not rolled over back into the general fund at the end of each fiscal year. Just reclaim the missing Wall Street money and everything will be fine. Does anyone have more information on CAFR's?
So who do you all think would make the best new Treas/sec?
Lawyerliz
I don't know who, but this would be the right candidate. First, she should be female. Then, she should be really good looking. Third, she should like to wear plunging necklines and short skirts. And finally, she should routinely like to pick things off the ground and not talk much.
$3 trillion - and all for the purpose of saving face - of keeping banks in 'business' even though they lend to no business, promote no commerce, produce nothing. That $3 trillion props them up while the real economy languishes.
I don't think there will be hyper-inflation or inflation. It is going to be total, ugly, roll up the sidewalks and tape the glass cause this sucker is going down deflation.
That chart is so abrubt it's not even a parabola. And I thought exponential growth was unsustainable. Good grief!
It's not parabolic behavior, it's a systemic failure. I suspect that one of the things that "derivatives" bought us was the means to alter the growth and money curves within a certain range.
Think of the levy dams on the Mississippi. Now think of the "100-year flood" that exceeds the dam's capacity.
Man, I hate "100-year flood" analogy. It's not like it wasn't year 99 and totally predictable.
"I don't think there will be hyper-inflation or inflation. It is going to be total, ugly, roll up the sidewalks and tape the glass cause this sucker is going down deflation."
nova: Ponys of the Purple Sage
I just walked in from the local RV dealer. Huge banner hung in the service department. "New labor rate: 77.00/hr". The rate a month age was 105.00. I have been wrenching for 20 years and have never seen an hourly rate dropped...
SAN FRANCISCO The online classifieds company Craigslist said Thursday that it had reached an agreement with 40 state attorneys general and agreed to tame its notoriously unruly erotic services listings.
"Craigslist said Thursday that it had reached an agreement with 40 state attorneys general and agreed to tame its notoriously unruly erotic services listings.
Anonymous"
So are you implying that she should start a Mariaslist? One list's loss is another list's gain? Opportunity knocks in hooker ads?
hasnt the fed lower its standard for colloratal too though? so those 'assets' of that extra trillion may be more questionable than a true asset should be
"I don't think there will be hyper-inflation or inflation..."
I've lived in periods of hyperinflation and inflation of commodities, services, education, real estate, and goods since the 70's. Wages tied to inflation was uncoupled in the late 70's. The government instituted deceptive accounting practices to hide the hyper/inflation. Credit cards replaced wage increases. The CPI was revamped from steak to hamburger to dog food--thanks Greenspan. Textiles are cheaper due to foreign slave labor. The dollar is worth what .40cents compared to the 50's?
Scholes's Platinum Grove Fund Halts Withdrawals After Losses
By Saijel Kishan
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum Grove Asset Management LP, the hedge-fund firm co-founded by Nobel laureate Myron Scholes, temporarily stopped investor withdrawals from its biggest fund after it lost 29 percent in the first half of October.
they going to do that with the rest of them? they just made them assets cause they didnt know what else to do with them? toxic is now nontoxic? help im completly confused.
"the hedge-fund firm co-founded by Nobel laureate Myron Scholes, temporarily stopped investor withdrawals from its biggest fund after it lost 29 percent in the first half of October."
You gots ta have a real big brain to pull that off.
ova, Basel Too,
Deflation can only persist as long as foreign investors have faith that US assets outperform in risk/reward. Let alone US investors jumping ship for any kind of positive return
You will note that today's Japanese Yen is significantly devalued compared to it's pre-crash/deflation days
So while I see all those emerging market exporters getting creamed, with a period of deflation following, I still see inflation returning in large part because by the end of this there will be a lot of unsterilized 'stimulus' that attempts to offset the credit unwind.
Such events would have enormous consequences for global trade competitiveness. No matter how that plays through, the US needs a weaker dollar (even at the expense of higher commodities) to balance the current account (which will become a must in a world short of credit). I do realize a weaker US dollar implies a relative lower of standard of living in the world -- but not for all, the balancing of the CA will shift the income from say the financial sector to manufacturing. A weaker dollar will support the recreation of a middle class.
Myron Samuel Scholes was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for "a new method to determine the value of derivatives". The model provides the fundamental conceptual framework for valuing options, such as calls or puts, and is referred to as the Black-Scholes model, which has become the standard in financial markets globally. Trillions of dollars of options trades are executed each year using this model and derivations thereof.
"Craigslist said Thursday that it had reached an agreement with 40 state attorneys general and agreed to tame its notoriously unruly erotic services listings.
Anonymous"
It seems the real problem is that 40 state attorney generals happen to find themselves in the "erotic services" section of Craigslist a bit too much.
LTCM brought more problems for Scholes in 2005, when he was implicated in the case of Long-Term Capital Holdings v. United States, being accused of having used an illegal tax shelter in order to avoid having to pay taxes on profits from company investments. It was found that Scholes and his partners were not eligible for $40 million tax savings resulting from $106 million accounting losses that had no economic substance.[3][4]
Scholes is currently the chairman of Platinum Grove Asset Management, an alternative investments asset management company, which he started with former LTCM partner Chi-fu Huang. The company manages $4.5 billion and has an average annual return of 9.4 percent as of 2007
With regard to the FT piece on quantitative easing, I think that it is clear that a chunk of the yen printed by the BoJ didn't sit in vaults. It was shipped around the world via the carry trade to fuel inflation.
The highlight of the H.4.1 report (at least for me) was the $185 billion increase in the Commercial Paper Funding Facility -- I almost thought they had resorted to electronic "printing" as there was not a commensurate increase from the Treasury injections (aka. the supplementary financing account). Then I noticed the $233 billion increase in Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks. Still sterilized, and the Fed holds any "risk" inherent in the Commercial Paper -- nice. BTW, the Fed recalculated the interest rate on balances kept with it by member banks.
Banks aren't required to allocate capital against reserves. So, a bank that is capital constrained would take deposits and simply let them pile up in its reserve account with the Fed. By letting them pile up (instead of loaning them out) the banks don't dip into capital.
So, the banking system is capital constrained so the total amount of in-the-bank money is fixed. The only way for somebody to get in-the-bank money is to convince somebody else with in-the-bank money to buy your assets. Of course, this means lower asset prices or a system lock-up.
Since the Federal Reserve Banks are the only bank that is exempt from capital requirements it buys the assets (commercial paper) on the open market. The sellers take the cash and dump it into the bank and it comes back onto the Fed's balance sheet as bank reserves.
Duh!
Hope the Federal Reserve chose wisely and that when banks want to lend out those reserves it wants to but the ABCP the Fed holds.
Primo
Damn you, Obama. You promised me those men would be decently treated.
President Obama: They were decently treated. They were decently fed and then they were decently shot. Those men are common outlaws, nothing more.
So how does that work? The Fed creates money to pay for the assets? or did the Fed already have the money?
That chart looks like a Viagra demonstratio
The good news is the Fed marked up the value of the Bear Stearns assets to $26,863 from $26,802 million two weeks ago - an increase of $61 million!
Those marks are due to the new risk managers' familiarity with the positions - they just hired the risk guy from Bear...
Go, Fed, Go. I've got some moldy bread that you can buy from me. I promise that it will be fresh again in 6 months.
So how does that work? The Fed creates money to pay for the assets? or did the Fed already have the money?
Unless you've got an empty wallet, look at the owner of the note printed above the Dead Prez head on the front of the bill
Basel Too, much of this is coming from special auction by the Treasury and more bank deposits - so the expansion is sterilized.
From Brad Setser: That growth was financed by Treasury bill issuance ($560b from the supplementary financing facility) and a large rise in banks deposits at the Fed ($405b).
Best Wishes.
The U.S. has spent close to U.S. $ 1 trillion on the Iraqistan quagmire and will spend at least U.S. $ 1 trillion on the bailout .
Transferring U.S. Treasury funds to the private sector: Priceless.
I don't see $105 billion in the chart. Edirt needed?
Now why can't my personal deposit base expand like that?
LOL
411 Visitors Online. See I do just as good a job as haloscan, and I'm 100% beefcake, too.
Japan expanded until they reached 30% of GDP and it still didn't work. Good chance we are heading to infinity and beyond.
A lot of that won't be sterilized, methinks.
Get ready, little lady. Hell is coming to breakfast.
Somebody please explain to me why it is bad for the Fed to own assets up to 20% of our GDP. Sounds horrible, but why is it horrible?
Josey Wales: When I get to likin' someone, they ain't around long.
Lone Watie: I notice when you get to DISlikin' someone they ain't around for long neither.
I guess the Fed found Dad's keys to the liquor cabinet.
Wooooooooooooooo! More assets! Parteeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Hangovers are a bitch, especially when Dad turns on the light when he gets home.
This FT link was posted earlier today, and it bears (no pun) re-posting:
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Fed capitulates: the central bank is broken
Talks about the increasing Fed balance sheet. Also mentions that Japan's central bank balance sheet hit 30% of GDP, so we've still got some room to grow
re: $427bn in bank deposits at Fed Reserve (up from ~7.5bn a year ago), good luck on them having any value unless the banks keep getting bailed out. They're not the deposits you grew up with, they're the toxic sludge the banks can't move. Beware of Hold to Maturity pricing.
So in that sense, a few hundred billion are only temporarily sterilized
CR, instead of a "blue bar" can we have a little shark down in the lower right corner?
I meant fruit cake. No, I'm not a fruit cake either. How about just 100% Elvis.
much of this is coming from special auction by the Treasury and more bank deposits - so the expansion is sterilized.
Can anyone tell me the exit strategy to this so called sterilization?
White House Dog Barney Bites Reuters Reporter
White House Dog Barney Bites Reuters Reporter
The incumbents are pissed at this expose!
No charges for ex-NY governor in prostitution case
Federal prosecutors said Thursday that they will not bring criminal charges against Eliot Spitzer for his role in a prostitution scandal..
U.S. Attorney Michael Garcia said investigators found no evidence that Spitzer or his office misused public or campaign funds for prostitution. ...federal prosecutors typically do not prosecute clients of prostitution rings."
Does he get his old job back? It never was about the call girls; it was always about Sptizer exposing Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Bearn Stearns rigged bidding and other misconduct selling investments and derivatives, such as interest-rate swaps, tied to municipal bonds. .
RE Citi off balance sheet liabilities:
The $605 billion in mortgage assets is mind-boggling. But more remarkable to me is this from the Bloomberg piece:
"Robert Traficanti, Citigroup's deputy controller, sent a letter to FASB Chairman Robert Herz on June 9 objecting to a provision that would force banks to reevaluate their off-balance-sheet assets and liabilities every quarter. Citigroup has more than 7,000 VIEs and more than 100 QSPEs, he wrote."
We believe that this model is impractical from an operational standpoint,'' Traficanti wrote.We would not be able to perform this analysis given the resources we currently have. We would need to hire many more accountants.''
So they really don't know what their exposure is, since they don't have the staff to evaluate it on a routine basis now. That seems like grounds for a shareholder lawsuit alleging reckless negligence on management's part. Amazing.
Downpuppy,the chart is in trillions - so $100 billion is just that small increase from just under $2 trillion last week to almost $2.1 trillion this week.
Best Wishes.
Disney park pacings down 10% Q1-2 fiscal year at present...ad pacings weak and retial going to be impacted into 2009...
stock down 9%
That chart is so abrubt it's not even a parabola. And I thought exponential growth was unsustainable. Good grief!
"We would need to hire many more accountants..."
And that would cut into our stripper budget.
Lockstep: It's what's on the balance sheet that's crucial.
If it's 20% of GDP value is really crap, then you've got trouble.
Earlier this year, Krugman noted that he used to teach the difference between developed countries central banks' balance sheets and emerging/undeveloped banks' balance sheets was the quality of assets. Developed countries balance sheets were usually nice t-bill (or the like) dominated clean sheets while undeveloped countries had a bunch of weird stuff in them.
Now our central bank balance sheet is getting crappier and messier every day.
CR,
The Federal Reserve assets increased from $105 billion this week to $2.075 trillion.
I think you mean to say that it increased "by" $105 billion, not from $105 billion.
FRED writes:
Disney park pacings down 10% Q1-2 fiscal year at present...ad pacings weak and retial going to be impacted into 2009...
stock down 9%
FRED | 11.06.08 - 5:05 pm | #
S&P 610...come to papa...
late 1990's Internet Bubble
2000 - 2006 Real Estate Bubble
2008+ The Federal Reserve Bubble
just gotta have bubbles for the US economy to float its boat !
I think the Fed should stick that chart on their foreheads, because they are a bunch of "Losers".
Hank Paulson is a bloodthirsty sonofabitch! He's a looter and a pillager!
George Bush is Not a hard man to track. Leaves dead men wherever he goes.
Calculated Risk writes:
Downpuppy,the chart is in trillions - so $100 billion is just that small increase from just under $2 trillion last week to almost $2.1 trillion this week.
Perhaps he was confused by this statement:
The Federal Reserve assets increased from $105 billion this week to $2.075 trillion.
Maybe the word "from" shouldn't be there..
sed 's/from //
Hank Paulson is the son of Satan. Satan called him Junior, but "bloodthirsty sonofabitch" works, too.
OT on this thread but dealing with a few posts on the last; in Greece the value added tax (almost equivalent to the sales tax in the US)goes from 9-19 at present and is likely to go up. Others more well-informed than I will be able to inform us of the actual differences in the two taxes (VAT and sales tax) if they exist.
Gadzooks!
I dub thee the "Wall of Wonder."
DIS down 9% AH...if we lose 275kk jobs...Dow might hit 7k...
Will the Fed start buying tickets to Disneyland as part of the TARP?
Looking at Maria B. "Now, if one of you has to, you can take that old woman over there. She might be worth one donkey"
DIS down 9% AH
It's a small world afterall. it's a small, small world
anyone know where i can find more info on the bear markup? thx
"The Federal Reserve assets increased from $105 billion this week to $2.075 trillion.
I think you mean to say that it increased "by" $105 billion, not from $105 billion."
When I read that my eyes bugged out of my head for a second.
It's a good thing the Fed makes up it's own accounting rules, cuz FASB would be fatal.
I'm sure they're hedging it well though.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
It is going to get ugly. Real ugly, like old man, jiggly ass, knock need, blue veined, ugly. It just don't matter.
Its runaway train filled with DDT and TNT going over the bridge into the tiny sleeping hamlet made famous for its orphanage bad.
VAT tax drives economy underground. Cash would be king, no receipt, no vat
Well, I just made a payment on Citicard 2.9% till I pay it off bonanze.
I guess it just was routed straight to the Fed after Citi creamed off the interest.
Well, sterilized is so harsh, disguised or lagged might be a better term.
Someday this war's gonna end...
With regard to the FT piece on quantitative easing, I think that it is clear that a chunk of the yen printed by the BoJ didn't sit in vaults. It was shipped around the world via the carry trade to fuel inflation. That was because there were very few worthwhile investments in Japan itself. The author argues that quantitative easing in Japan failed. I would disagree in that by propping up US consumption through the carry trade, Japan's exporters were protected from lower sales. Now that the carry trade has gone bust, we see Japan's exporters suffering the consequences. Shrinking foreign demand and the strengthening of the yen are killing them.
Calculated Risk writes:
Basel Too, much of this is coming from special auction by the Treasury and more bank deposits - so the expansion is sterilized.
Is it real sterilized if the assets would otherwise have defaulted into worthlessness by now?
Ahh- found it at the link, under total assets of all Federal Reserve Banks.
But:
The Federal Reserve assets increased from $105 billion this week to $2.075 trillion.
needs work.
FED bubble - how do I short this puppy
FED bubble - how do I short this puppy
Barley
With a pin.
Hank Paulson is the most under-rated hedge fund manager in history
St. Louis Fed: Series: RSBKCRNS, Reserve Bank Credit
Check out some of his Alpha
(I know Bernanke is the face of the operation, but Paulson owns the shop)
How? One troy ounce at a time.
So who do you all think would make the best new Treas/sec?
Will the FED backstop states bad investments? States should reclaim the states missing Wall Street money, found in the states Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. I here there's billions of dollars there from state enterprise and investment activities. I here that money is not rolled over back into the general fund at the end of each fiscal year. Just reclaim the missing Wall Street money and everything will be fine. Does anyone have more information on CAFR's?
"Does he get his old job back?"
if spitzer was smart, he'd start digging up some muni clients and start a class-action lawsuit.
all's fair in love & war
And what are those assets worth marked to market? $0.09/dollar?
How is this sterilized?
It seems to me that the Fed is "pretending to sterilize" as far as I'm concerned.
The things is received as assets/deposits in exchange for the cash is pretty much going into default/never going to be redeemed area.
Someone explain why this is still sterile?
Otherwise, if this is an unsterilized cloaking as a sterilized action, I think we're looking at hyperinflation as the only outcome of this act.
Deflation for now, Hyperinflation when the truth about sterilization-failure-intent gets out.
Barley,
By shorting the dollar (long foreign currencies, commodities, mostly exporting service sector companies) and/or swaps off bonds.
Maybe do a carry trade, then use the foreign credit to short us equities
So who do you all think would make the best new Treas/sec?
Lawyerliz
I don't know who, but this would be the right candidate. First, she should be female. Then, she should be really good looking. Third, she should like to wear plunging necklines and short skirts. And finally, she should routinely like to pick things off the ground and not talk much.
$3 trillion - and all for the purpose of saving face - of keeping banks in 'business' even though they lend to no business, promote no commerce, produce nothing. That $3 trillion props them up while the real economy languishes.
I don't think there will be hyper-inflation or inflation. It is going to be total, ugly, roll up the sidewalks and tape the glass cause this sucker is going down deflation.
That chart is so abrubt it's not even a parabola. And I thought exponential growth was unsustainable. Good grief!
It's not parabolic behavior, it's a systemic failure. I suspect that one of the things that "derivatives" bought us was the means to alter the growth and money curves within a certain range.
Think of the levy dams on the Mississippi. Now think of the "100-year flood" that exceeds the dam's capacity.
Man, I hate "100-year flood" analogy. It's not like it wasn't year 99 and totally predictable.
if spitzer was smart
Didn't Spitzer start a distressed real estate fund after resigning?
"Fed marked up the value of the Bear Stearns assets"
Using these accounting standards, I'm a billionaire!
"So who do you all think would make the best new Treas/sec?"
ideally, Jim Rogers
realistically, Laura Tyso
"Using these accounting standards, I'm a billionaire!
Speed"
Using a fork for a hand and a hand for a fork, I'm having a hard time eating.
"I don't think there will be hyper-inflation or inflation. It is going to be total, ugly, roll up the sidewalks and tape the glass cause this sucker is going down deflation."
nova: Ponys of the Purple Sage
I just walked in from the local RV dealer. Huge banner hung in the service department. "New labor rate: 77.00/hr". The rate a month age was 105.00. I have been wrenching for 20 years and have never seen an hourly rate dropped...
Chris
What's Maria B. going to do now?
SAN FRANCISCO The online classifieds company Craigslist said Thursday that it had reached an agreement with 40 state attorneys general and agreed to tame its notoriously unruly erotic services listings.
that's bullish, right?
"New labor rate: 77.00/hr". The rate a month age was 105.00. I have been wrenching for 20 years and have never seen an hourly rate dropped...
Must of just hired a bunch of illegals
I have been wrenching for 20 years and have never seen an hourly rate dropped
Then again, real estate never went down either.
You can't believe how difficult it is to explain to J6P how broadly asset deflation works its way through the real economy.
"Craigslist said Thursday that it had reached an agreement with 40 state attorneys general and agreed to tame its notoriously unruly erotic services listings.
Anonymous"
So are you implying that she should start a Mariaslist? One list's loss is another list's gain? Opportunity knocks in hooker ads?
hasnt the fed lower its standard for colloratal too though? so those 'assets' of that extra trillion may be more questionable than a true asset should be
"Didn't Spitzer start a distressed real estate fund after resigning?"
wow didn't know that but you're right.
Spitzer’s Next Act: Distressed Real Estate - Developments - WSJ
vulture being the key word in this article
so those 'assets' of that extra trillion may be more questionable than a true asset should be
d | 11.06.08
Hello? Hello?
The U.S. has spent close to U.S. $ 1 trillion on the Iraqistan quagmire and will spend at least U.S. $ 1 trillion on the bailout .
It worked for the Soviet Union, why not for us?
"I don't think there will be hyper-inflation or inflation..."
I've lived in periods of hyperinflation and inflation of commodities, services, education, real estate, and goods since the 70's. Wages tied to inflation was uncoupled in the late 70's. The government instituted deceptive accounting practices to hide the hyper/inflation. Credit cards replaced wage increases. The CPI was revamped from steak to hamburger to dog food--thanks Greenspan. Textiles are cheaper due to foreign slave labor. The dollar is worth what .40cents compared to the 50's?
It worked for the Soviet Union, why not for us?
Exactly.
And it scales! We go to a three-front war in 2009.
When genius failed...redux
Scholes's Platinum Grove Fund Halts Withdrawals After Losses
By Saijel Kishan
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum Grove Asset Management LP, the hedge-fund firm co-founded by Nobel laureate Myron Scholes, temporarily stopped investor withdrawals from its biggest fund after it lost 29 percent in the first half of October.
Scholes's Platinum Grove Fund Halts Withdrawals After Losses - Bloomberg.com
they going to do that with the rest of them? they just made them assets cause they didnt know what else to do with them? toxic is now nontoxic? help im completly confused.
I don't think we need to worry about value of Fed's assets. They are fully hedged by CDOs.
ac writes:
The U.S. has spent close to U.S. $ 1 trillion on the Iraqistan
Actually the cost to date is $2.7 trillion once you factor in health care, disability benifits, equipment resets, etc.
"the hedge-fund firm co-founded by Nobel laureate Myron Scholes, temporarily stopped investor withdrawals from its biggest fund after it lost 29 percent in the first half of October."
You gots ta have a real big brain to pull that off.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
ova, Basel Too,
Deflation can only persist as long as foreign investors have faith that US assets outperform in risk/reward. Let alone US investors jumping ship for any kind of positive return
You will note that today's Japanese Yen is significantly devalued compared to it's pre-crash/deflation days
So while I see all those emerging market exporters getting creamed, with a period of deflation following, I still see inflation returning in large part because by the end of this there will be a lot of unsterilized 'stimulus' that attempts to offset the credit unwind.
Such events would have enormous consequences for global trade competitiveness. No matter how that plays through, the US needs a weaker dollar (even at the expense of higher commodities) to balance the current account (which will become a must in a world short of credit). I do realize a weaker US dollar implies a relative lower of standard of living in the world -- but not for all, the balancing of the CA will shift the income from say the financial sector to manufacturing. A weaker dollar will support the recreation of a middle class.
Myron Samuel Scholes was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for "a new method to determine the value of derivatives". The model provides the fundamental conceptual framework for valuing options, such as calls or puts, and is referred to as the Black-Scholes model, which has become the standard in financial markets globally. Trillions of dollars of options trades are executed each year using this model and derivations thereof.
Ironic
"Craigslist said Thursday that it had reached an agreement with 40 state attorneys general and agreed to tame its notoriously unruly erotic services listings.
Anonymous"
It seems the real problem is that 40 state attorney generals happen to find themselves in the "erotic services" section of Craigslist a bit too much.
"Actually the cost to date is $2.7 trillion once you factor in health care, disability benifits, equipment resets, etc."
It's unpatriotic to include all of the costs.
Nostrovia,
The FED gotz hoopajoops on their balance sheetz!
"and is referred to as the Black-Scholes model"
It will be remembered as the Black-Holes model.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope,
Is it patriotic to lower the cost by including the money liberated from the old Iraqi national bank?
LTCM brought more problems for Scholes in 2005, when he was implicated in the case of Long-Term Capital Holdings v. United States, being accused of having used an illegal tax shelter in order to avoid having to pay taxes on profits from company investments. It was found that Scholes and his partners were not eligible for $40 million tax savings resulting from $106 million accounting losses that had no economic substance.[3][4]
Scholes is currently the chairman of Platinum Grove Asset Management, an alternative investments asset management company, which he started with former LTCM partner Chi-fu Huang. The company manages $4.5 billion and has an average annual return of 9.4 percent as of 2007
With regard to the FT piece on quantitative easing, I think that it is clear that a chunk of the yen printed by the BoJ didn't sit in vaults. It was shipped around the world via the carry trade to fuel inflation.
Excellent point. I completely agree.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
"and is referred to as the Black-Scholes model"
That's worth sending to Taleb for his book's next printing
The highlight of the H.4.1 report (at least for me) was the $185 billion increase in the Commercial Paper Funding Facility -- I almost thought they had resorted to electronic "printing" as there was not a commensurate increase from the Treasury injections (aka. the supplementary financing account). Then I noticed the $233 billion increase in Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks. Still sterilized, and the Fed holds any "risk" inherent in the Commercial Paper -- nice. BTW, the Fed recalculated the interest rate on balances kept with it by member banks.
Heh, no love lost there EHP - NNT and his insights into the error of Gaussian assumptions - haven't dug into the Mandelbrot though...
EHP
Nostrovia,
A trillion here, a trillion there, who cares. The guys on CNBC told me that deficits don't matter.
"It worked for the Soviet Union, why not for us?
Exactly.
And it scales! We go to a three-front war in 2009."
Be careful what you forecast. War is always a risk with unpredictable consequences.
Who wrote this?
"The beginning of every war is like opening the door into a dark room. One never knows what is hidden in the darkness."
Said, actually, I think. Out loud.
Light-bulb moment....
Banks aren't required to allocate capital against reserves. So, a bank that is capital constrained would take deposits and simply let them pile up in its reserve account with the Fed. By letting them pile up (instead of loaning them out) the banks don't dip into capital.
So, the banking system is capital constrained so the total amount of in-the-bank money is fixed. The only way for somebody to get in-the-bank money is to convince somebody else with in-the-bank money to buy your assets. Of course, this means lower asset prices or a system lock-up.
Since the Federal Reserve Banks are the only bank that is exempt from capital requirements it buys the assets (commercial paper) on the open market. The sellers take the cash and dump it into the bank and it comes back onto the Fed's balance sheet as bank reserves.
Duh!
Hope the Federal Reserve chose wisely and that when banks want to lend out those reserves it wants to but the ABCP the Fed holds.
funny about scholes.
been reading about keynes...he actually lost all his $ in the 1929 crash.
Is anyone making a collection of these "Is it supposed to do that" charts?
@ EvilHenryPaulson | 11.06.08 - 5:38 pm | #
Exactly.
Ken writes:
Is anyone making a collection of these "Is it supposed to do that" charts?
Didn't they make them into a book; "Dow 36,000"?