Answer me this question. How is "fixing" housing helping his Friends at GS? Is paulson just pushing the chevy vega down the road for the next Treasury?
He did show up. But you weren't home. The pony he was also bringing drank the champagne, ate the roses, and then suffocated on the balloons. So they carted everything off and left.
Take over all the pensions of the American auto companies. Turn it into a Credit Union of sorts backed up by the US government. Have the auto workers pay a portion of their salary into the thing and charge membership for other. In return consumers will get auto loans to buy US made cars and small business loans.
It's good to know that the market has now been stabilized. Thanks Hank, all this time I thought we were still in a period of terrible volatility. What game was I watching?
hey thanks! c&c seems forced to confabulate on this issue, not sure why...
Today the IEA released their World Energy Outlook 2008, the big highlight IMNSHO is their estimate of the world wide decline rate at 6.7%, which replaces a widely held estimate of 4%...what this means is the treadmill is running significantly faster than the previous conventional wisdom.
With worldwide oil production around 85 MMBOD, instead of the first 3.4 MMBOD of new production being necessary to keep the global production rate flat, it is the first 5.7 MMBOD that is needed just to stay even...if you look around the planet for places adding production in MMBOD increments you will find it is a very short list.
Which ties into one of the other biggies from my POV, the amount of global production controlled by the NOC's (think Gazprom or Saudi Aramco or Iran or Venezuela) is already a majority and it is just going to ramp up from here.
Check out the info at IEA, and by all means think for yourself. But do it on an informed basis.
If we're going to save the world, $700B aint gonna cut it.
Heck, $7 Tril aint gonna cut it.
Prepare yourselves for your Hobbesian future. Don't be blinded by the same doe-eyed morons who have lied to you continually. We are doomed. And positive thinking or delusion will not change this.
Get your camping gear, some food, and a few spiritual books and get ready.
I wonder if Paulson sees himself as the greek god Atlas?
During the war of the TITANS, ATLAS stormed Olympus and threatened the Gods. And as punishment for this war crime, ZEUS sentenced him to hold up the heavens and bear their weight on his shoulders forever.
All the money on the planet will not fill the credit void that has been left by corruption and greed. Potter has no heart and even now controlling all the money, is still BROKE! Zu-Zu's Petals and angels wings could not fly us out of this $hithole.
ATLAS was very relieved when the laboring HERACLES came along offering to give him a hand in return for a little help with some Golden Apples from the HESPERIDES.
ATLAS nipped off to get the apples but wasn't inclined to resume his burden. "Here, hold this a minute while I scratch my back," said HERACLES. And ATLAS, not the brightest apple in the barrel, did so while HERACLES made a sharp exit.
The awful burden was made slightly easier for ATLAS to bear when PERSEUS came along and turned him to stone with the head of MEDUSA. He's now known as Mount Atlas.
Testerone poisoning. Dubya is fatally attracted to them; see Jim Gluckert/Gannon male model prostitute turned press corp in briefs. - rps
With all due respect, given the topic presented for our comments by our genial host; don't you agree "The Administration" regardless of occupant(s) is the perpetrator?
By that I mean whomsoever may occupy the Executive events dictate response. The next President will push for higher taxes. Shock, surprise. How will that be different from what we see now? "Honesty?" GMAFB. Degrees of dishonesty at best.
is the huge, unsustainable dollar rally which is resultant of $xyz hundred trillion in derivatives settlement really a cover for an engineered quick divestiture of dollar denominated asian assets?
CSC, why camp?
After all, I have a perfectly nice house owned by Citibank, with junior subordination by Chase. As for food, we still produce a ton of it, and we will soon see ration books if things get real bad.
If I get nothing, they get nothing, and I will continue to live in my house.
Funny pieces of paper are going to be very funny in the long run.
Panic has set in Paulson, and now almost nothing will stop it until it burns out. A long slow crisis is preferable to a quick drop, right?
Stall, stall stallllll.
CSC - There are several good grain mills and corn seeders dating from early 1900's for sale on ebay right now. I mention this because mine are due to arrive in the next couple of days.
CSC, $700 might actually do the trick if they didn't just piss it away.
They could literally buy WFC - the whole company - for $100 Bln, convert it to a true National Bank, intergate the operations of those things formerly known as "GSEs", and start buying up loans, guaranteeing them and selling "GMBS".
A simple approach can then be applied to all "troubled" mortgages: YOU COME TO US. We've running what is essentially HOLC part deaux. You'll get an offer from us in 24 hours or less. TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT. Don't like our short-refi offer? Go foreclose, then. This would go on until the rest of the $600 Bil is set aside for projected losses.
To allegiviate crushing the deposit biz from the other private banks, there will be new deposit accounts at the 3rd National Bank, unless your bank fails, then you get under the velvet rope since you know Sheila.
If you are still around, the comment from previous thread "Wal-mart imports about $20 billion from China which produces $350 billion in revenue. That $20 billion is never coming back, and the $350 billion in revenue lands mostly in some pretty deep pockets."
Proves you don't know shit about retail or overseas production. Go study for a few days and we will talk again.
Karelian,
This may be an unusual concept for you, but the party that is in charge when legislation passes usually gets blamed for the effects of that legislation.
Remember, it was only a short time ago that the nasty House Republicans were brutalized for preventing the bailout bill from passing.
I understand that the Republican administration "designed" and "implemented" the bailout, but liberals certainly do not get a pass in it passage.
I haven't gone to the source material yet, but I did read about it on a news story. It's all over the financial pages so c&c might see it somewhere.
It's funny how some folks are looking at the daily price of oil and thinking everything's gonna be fine.
It's really funny how so many commenters on this board can see massive demand destruction everywhere in the U.S. and world economies and not connect it to the curent price of oil.
Peak oil is for real and 85MMB/d is about it. Absent a big drop in world population, when this downturn is over, people will be shocked.
As far as the nationals go, it's scary, and hopefully the politics of the situation will not lead us to that big drop in world population all of a sudden. The fallout would be even worse.
Spoke to an appraiser today that was asked to do a portfolio review for a small local bank. Wanted 500+ homes re-evaluated but the appraiser cannot use foreclosed homes in the valuation process. The problem is that 95% of all resales in that entire ZIP code were REO's. Bank was bolstering it's balance sheet so a 50-75K house would look like a 100-150K house to the Feds. The bank was on the FDIC watchlist....just fabulous...more trickery under the tarp.
I am detecting convulsive attempts to tag the trillion dollar bailouts designed by Republican White House and Republican Fed on.... liberals!!
LOL.
As I see it the Republicans starting with Reagan have been very liberal in the fiscal sense. Also Keynesian style central management of the economy has also been very popular under Republican presidents, albeit with rate cuts rather than taxes (to his credit Keynes warned about inflationary forms of stimulus and seemed to prefer the tax system).
Personally I was hoping the democratic party would embrace a more fiscally conservative position to differentiate themselves from our profligate financially irresponsible republican friends.
Alas, borrow, borrow, borrow, spend, spend, spend seems to be the only politically viable option in our system.
Maybe what we need is a fiscally conservative but more socially moderate/liberal party.
The nation shifted. You did great with the 290 billion we gave you but now it's time to give up the gig. The public has figured it out, shit Bloomberg sued you. That dickhead has aspirations as the 2012 third party candidate. He can finance it too. Dammit.
Wealth transfer from the taxpayers now has to shift back to the taxpayer. Silly huh? Idiots haven't figured out the next step of dollar devaluation but we will give you a few months to switch your paper to real assets. Get busy.
By the way we need a couple of wall street types to parade around and put in prison. Recommendations would be appreciated but not Dick Fuld. He's an asshole but he knows way too much.
Let Neel know he did great but his eyebrows need tweezed badly. Have him call Nancy for a stylist but stay away from her plastic surgeon, waaay to much botox, I know the congress bennies are great but he overcharged for shoddy work.
Gotta go but please let your replacement know what the f*ck to do with the Fed. Talk about a shitty balance sheet. No way are we putting lipstick on that pig. Stick around just in case we need to call you next year for the congressional investigations into fraud. Lieberman will be in charge, he's independent but if he does good we'll let him back in our club.
After he bails Santa and saves Christmas, do you think he will save Easter, Valentines Day and the tooth fairy?...I do hope he can save St. Pattys day.
Personally I was hoping the democratic party would embrace a more fiscally conservative position to differentiate themselves from our profligate financially irresponsible republican friends.
Balancing the budget was one of the top things on Nancy Pelosi's list when she took over as Speaker of the House. How things change...
Panelists said the single most important thing to do is change bankruptcy law to allow judges to modify primary residences.
s_puttnick | 11.12.08 - 3:04 pm | #
Panelists are right. I've been saying that ever since the issue arose.
We'll get true price discovery (and a housing bottom) right away.
karelian,
You are the first commentor to bring up Pelosi or Waters - I certainly never did. On that note, however, please check your history books, I'm pretty sure Pelosi was house majority leader when the bailout bill passed.
Regardless of who you want to blame (you might as well blame Santa Claus for all the good it will do you), the liberals are now the ones the will need to provide leadership on where we go from here. If they spend all of their time trying to allocate blame instead of offering solutions (like with the Iraq war), we will be even more screwed than we already are.
irreverent writes:
"those mortgage backed CDO's are going to be very hard to modify,..."
Well, they had better get started on the accounting, because they're going to have to deal with it eventually. Too bad it turns out that they did not keep good records. Have you heard the stories about foreclosures failing because the servicer could not produce the mortgage papers?
those mortgage backed CDO's are going to be very hard to modify, though I can't give a handy reference right now
irreverent | 11.12.08 - 3:17 pm | #
I don't think the CDOs will be modified at all. Many mortgages wrapped up in them will be, though. The CDOs will simply be worth less, but still not worthless. Cash flow from them should improve.
Balancing the budget was one of the top things on Nancy Pelosi's list when she took over as Speaker of the House. How things change...
These people aren't leaders. The slaves to polls and special interests. Republicans and democrats both.
People around here like to warn about the dangers of idealism, yet it seems to me that the idealists are the only ones that don't immediately cave to special interests and opinion polls.
Maybe we need more, not less "dangerous" idealists in our political system.
Maybe we wouldn't have the problems we have today if we did.
Not really ...just feed the poor to the rich. The poor are becoming more abundant every day. See cannibalisim thread earlier....it would be self correcting.
The proper way to fix this crisis is to SPEED UP THE FORECLOSURE AND PRICE BOTTOMING PROCESS!!!
Stop slowing it down!
Reduce NODS to foreclosure lag to merely 45-60 days. Create a "fast-track" process for people who mail in their keys.
Reward them if they mail in their keys, and the residence is not trashed by reducing their tax liabilities from housing related losses.
Reduce Bank's incentive to hold houses on their account: Raise taxes on bank owned properties, levy city/local maintenance fees, Do an escalating fee fine, if the property is not sold in 30, then 60, then 90 days.
Banks must instantly declare their bad assets and securities to the Fed, including all off-balance sheet crap; in a small window (like 90 days); In exchange, the fed will then capitalize them and allow them into some kind of guarentee program.
First time homebuyers need a lot more incentive, have the govt guarentee the first 10% of losses to first time homebuyers -- they may take it as a tax credit if they do have a loss when they sell.
Specify a maximum capital ratio the banks can have, before they're revoked of their bank status and no longer able to participate in any Fed programs, including FDIC.
These will make things crash and burn quickly, but also allow recovery quickly.
I just read through over 100 comments about Paulson's speech and virtually none of them took him seriously.
This is a serious credibility issue now.
Doesn't anybody at Treasury or the Federal Reserver realize that they're a complete laughingstock over the entire nation, if not the world? To the tune of perhaps 90% of the population?
That's staggering.
Maybe that's why Paulson was wearing green and orange.
Somebody better tell Hank that GS is down 11+%. Violating the Constitution and sh*tting on the USA - no big deal. But cratering, GS, now that's gonna cause some..er..hard feelings.
AGI, GM, American Express, you name it. They are all running up to our cars, washing our windshields and asking for donations. It's kind of sad what American capitalism has become.
Rel states:
"If they spend all of their time trying to allocate blame instead of offering solutions (like with the Iraq war), we will be even more screwed than we already are."
I like it when Repubs say that. Then I look back at how they castigated Clinton for his chubby intern and think their statement all so very quaint considering a look back at the past eight years.
Anyway, they are right. When someone shits on the picnic table then leaves right where you want to have a picnic you have to clean it up.
You have actually looked at the TV picture rather than just absorbing it by osmisis... I've always wondered how blind people can be to the crap picture most LCD's show.
As I understand it the mortgages are held by a trustee for the bondholders that own the CDO's. Majority of bondholders must agree to restructuring. Mortgages are sliced into multiple bonds. Very complex to unravel the mess.
Right - blaming the Republicans who did the greatest damage would just be wrong.
For what it's worth as somebody who's probably a bit more conservative than the average CR minion, I think the Republicans far and away deserve the most blame as far as political figures go.
But how can you blame them for all the bubbles in other countries financed by foreign capital?
Did US politicians really cause the incredible real estate bubbles in Europe or the stock bubbles all around the world?
Good question, but I'm afraid most Americans wouldn't even notice. Not unless they disguised the glod siezure as some sort of give-away-athon, like they do when they're trying to catch felons or child molesters.
"As I understand it the mortgages are held by a trustee for the bondholders that own the CDO's. Majority of bondholders must agree to restructuring. Mortgages are sliced into multiple bonds. Very complex to unravel the mess."
There's that little thing called Contractual Law. If you thought it was hard to sell GSE/Treasury debt now, just wait and see what happens once the Politicians start re-writing contract law after the fact.
Send lawyers, guns, and money:
Not unless they disguised the glod siezure as some sort of give-away-athon, like they do when they're trying to catch felons or child molesters.
Excellent! Megan's law; now applied to goldbugs.
You can now check online to see if a previously arrested or confessed goldbug lives next door.
Give that list to robbers, thieves and the underworld.
There is zero doubt that Greenspan created the Spanish and British housing bubbles. The US economy is so dominant that the 1% interest rate policy created a wall of hot money washing over the globe.
I hope Greenspan lives long enough to be publicly flogged. He has direct responsibility for the tens of thousands being tossed out on the streets, without jobs and without prospects.
Karelian,
Now that you have correctly (at least in your own mind) apportioned the blame, what do you propose the soon to be Democratically-controlled U.S. government do about it? I don't think that publically shaming all the people that you think caused this problem is going to unring the bell (although it might be entertaining).
Broward Horne writes: Doesn't anybody at the Treasury realize what they're doing?
Nope. Look at how inconstant their policy has been, and how often they've had to reframe. Their response clearly telegraphs they have no true idea of the scope or nature of the challenge.
If you look at Greenspan he actually seemed to manage the money supply in a very responsible manner early on in his career, then morphed into "Easy Al" later in his tenure.
Many others have made similar observations.
Sounds more like somebody capitulating to political pressure rather than somebody who's an idealist.
I think the pressure from Bush Senior's presidential loss (which he partly blamed Greenspan for) as well as the exciting prospect of those sleepovers at the White House caused him to give up what he thought was right for what he thought would make him popular.
why is it "puppets mouthing talking points" when it's one party and when it's the other party "it's speaking truth to power". too funny. each side has puppets and talking points....get over it.
Wingnuts are just too funny. It's always "the Gingrich boom," or the "Clinton recession." I would have thought the first principle of conservative governance would be responsibility for one's actions. Instead, it's crony misrule, hand the mess off, then --even as you're blaming liberals! --say "It's not about assigning blame." Enjoy your wilderness years. You've earned them.
....there is no hope....we've gone too far....the remedies that need to be made will not....congress is too self-centered to make the required changes....Obama will have control of an empty checking account...
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. said the U.S. government agreed to insure as much as $139 billion in debt for lending arm GE Capital Corp.,
True - puppets abound, but at least the Republican puppets are bald and wear funny-green suits. Fraid the Democrats haven't realized we are in a Dali painting now
Majority of bondholders must agree to restructuring. Mortgages are sliced into multiple bonds. Very complex to unravel the mess.
irreverent,
I don't see the problem in the context of bankruptcy. Assuming judges are once again given discretion to cram down owner-occupied residential mortgages, they do just that and the chips fall wherever they fall.
The bondholders don't agree to anything. They probably will send their servicer/trustee/designated agent into court to object. They will probably stop doing that once they realize it's a waste of money.
I'm not talking about voluntary modifications. I'm talking about a judge saying what the new mortgage terms are. The holders can argue about how they split the pie, but they can't argue the pie should be larger.
Evil Paulson is all about self-preservation. Covering CDO losses for private companies with borrowed money on non-transparent assets is financial suicide.
I've found a good intraday indicator to be the main headline on Google Finance.
As soon as it mentions continued decline, market rises. Mention of pared losses or some other drivel pushes the nose over.
That being said, when the declines start to get noticed is when you start hearing the "stocks are cheap again", which in turn drives more and more people to sit with their finger on the buy button waiting for the one piece of good news that signals the beginning of the great bull market of Generation O.
It is not only complex, it is impossible to unravel. Not to mention unnessary. It's the individual mortgages one needs to worry about in order to "keep people in their homes".
The key is to provide a more lucrative loss-mit alternative to foreclosure. A party that will pay you .45 cents on the dollar for a mortgage that will yield .40 cents on the dollar if it were foreclosed and liquidated. Make it an relatively easy call to sell the "Troubled Asset" instead of foreclosing.
Wherever to get the capital to buy so many "Troubled Assets"? The $700 Bln TARP. Golly, it even has "Troubled Asset" in the name. How awesome.
But wait, the TARP has no infrastuture to service a shit-ton of mortgages not to mention re-securitize them? That's why the TARP needs to buy an existing 900-lb mortgage bank if it is to have any hope of doing jack shit wrt/"preventing foreclosures".
Just spewing off TARP funds to private banks and telling them in a stern voice to "lend" ain't gonna cut it.
I recently foreclosed in CA due to a medical hardship, with 80/20 first and second, no-refi, 100% purchase, and the house is about 120k underwater at short sale prices in the area (360k original in 2004). What will happen with my second loan if the sale of the property doesn't even cover the first? I'm basically insolvent, so will I owe the IRS anything after the dust settles?
karelian writes:
LOL! Don't you get it? That is the whole point - nothing can be done now
karelian, you are a wise man who speaks the truth. You watch the bank failures start to pile up now that the election is over and the Republicans lost. They don't give a shit anymore, Guys like Larry Kudlow will spin this mess on Obama.
A country who can not help the many who are poor can not save the few who are rich.
sportsfan writes:
Panelists said the single most important thing to do is change bankruptcy law to allow judges to modify primary residences.
s_puttnick | 11.12.08 - 3:04 pm | #
Panelists are right. I've been saying that ever since the issue arose.
We'll get true price discovery (and a housing bottom) right away.
sportsfan | 11.12.08 - 3:11 pm | #
No, please. This is the best way to encourage defaults. Is that what you really want? Is it because you were foolhardy and now owe more than you can pay? Again, why must I pay for your silliness. I am more than willing to farm my land and defend against any that would try to take from me if the whole system goes down but I am not ready to reward bad behavior. Let the irresponsible dolts starve or freeze in the streets. It is not the fault of people that lived within their means and we should not be expected to bail them out. I was driving an old Chevy while big spenders that now need mortgage resets were driving new BMWs. Let them live in the car for all I care.
B.R. I think you are right, and the Repbulicans in state governments that don't play ball with the new playbook are going to find that the renewal projects don't go to places that hate dems.
karelian writes:
LOL! Don't you get it? That is the whole point - nothing can be done now.
I hope, but do not expect, that the Democratic government you helped elect has a better plan than to sit back and watch it burn, all the while assuring everyone that it wasn't their fault.
What you don't understand is that I'm not a Republican - they deserve plenty of the blame - I just haven't heard anything that resembles leadership from the Democratic side of the aisle. If the first thing the Democrats do is bail out the auto industry by giving money directly to the Detriot three, I certainly do not see that as a step in the right direction.
GOP destroyed the US economy and Kashkari is doing a last-minute raid to ensure the debt load left for Obama is going to be beyond imaging.
We all destroyed the economy. If you want to say that the Republicans destroyed it the most, I think you have a good case.
But the simple fact is that I and others were around sites like this one in 2005 and 2006 screaming about how we were destroying the financial system, but I didn't hear one party or another screaming that we need to stop it too.
Just a handful of people that were called crazy fringe lunatics.
Paulson's a Democrat. So was Greenspan and his trophy wife Andrea Mitchell (some trophy). So is Buffett. And Soros. Two of the biggest cheeleaders of this bailout.
So I guess there goes your vast right wing KOS-spiracy theory.
Another Academic Question: What would you call a "Warring States Period" in America? A Civil War or something more poetic or dramatic?
yagij | 11.12.08 - 3:50 pm | #
Filing bankruptcy is not a reward for anyone. Sorry you misunderstood what I've been saying.
Getting to a housing bottom soon seems important to me. Preventing that with a bunch of artificial financial constructs like CDOs and passing laws to make debts not dischargeable in bankruptcy makes the problem worse.
Why would I have to declare BK? As I understand the law in CA, the second loan is pretty much a complete loss for the lender, and they rarely do anything about it for 100% purchase price loans. Even if they forgive all of the debt, I'm insolvent, so according to the IRS, I will not owe anything. Does someone understand to the contrary?
Newsreel announcer: Young people from all over the globe are joining up to fight for the future.
Soldier #1: I'm doing my part.
Soldier #2: I'm doing my part.
Soldier #3: I'm doing my part.
Young kid dressed up as a soldier: I'm doing my part too.
[Soldiers laugh]
Newsreel announcer: They're doing their part. Are you? Join the Mobile Infantry and save the world. Service guarantees citizenship.
Citizen AllenM writes: BR, we have the printing press, and we will use it.
Oh they can fill the Treasury with as many Weimar marks as they want. That won't make it any less empty when the Treasury fails start.
In theory they could run things by direct expropriation etc but it's a fast-moving crisis and it's their first attempt to govern centrally with a five year plan. The more plenipotentiary power they have / are given, the greater the scope for newbie error.
Who was it that said last night that engineering is incremental and people who try to go to far too fast get a deserving slapdown by reality? State function is the same way.
GE Capital said it received approval for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's temporary liquidity guarantee program under which the government guarantees certain banking debt.
GE Capital can issue up to $139 billion of government guaranteed debts, the unit of General Electric said in a statement. The program will be effective on or before Nov. 14.
"This will allow us to source our debt competitively, the company said.
GE Capital can issue up to $139 billion of government guaranteed debts, the unit of General Electric said in a statement. The program will be effective on or before Nov. 14.
"This will allow us to source our debt competitively, the company said.
"Sounds more like [Greenspan] capitulating to political pressure rather than somebody who's an idealist."
I've long held that after seeing the productivity brought on by technologies starting in the 90's, he genuinely believed he could and would be the architect of the transition to functional globalization.
He, and others, however, were seduced by the notion that the derivatives could rechannel the risk, and that systemic returns would increase because of increases in utility that would come from better matching investor preferences for risk with return streams which met those preferences.
Thus the central banks let loose the "shadow banking system," and all the agents who reaped gains from mispricing and misallocation via derivatives based faux credit.
Problem was, that idea didn't and doesn't work. Separating risk from the underlying credit causes mis-pricing of both the risk and the credit because the information channel between borrower and lender is cut.
So instead of the Father of the Global Miracle, he's the Goat, and history is going to deal very harshly with him.
I need to revise the Video showing Paulson behind the Dept of the Treasury podium.
He's in a canoe facing the audience and, of course, bailing his heart out...but the canoe is stabilizing and amazingly not sinking until the very end when he abandons his bucket and grabs both sides of the canoe and walks off stage, canoe in hand --an old Marx Bro sight gag.
I need it now.
I have no problem with anyone filing for bankruptcy and agree that it is not a reward. However, I have financed several dozen homes at the time I did so the purchasers and I entered into an agreement whereby they would pay a stated amount at stated terms until the mortgage was paid off. If they failed to perform, I would take the house back and resell it to someone else that could pay for it. Nowhere did I sign that a judge could restate the amount or terms of the sale in a bankruptcy court. I believe that is the case in all mortgages, and I would rather burn down a house that I reposess than have some bleeding heart judge or congressass rewrite the laws. I have played by the rules and won. Just because someone else THINKS they deserve something that was paid for by my labor is no cause for me to give it to them. Let them play by the rules, pay for what they buy, lose what they do not pay for and learn from the experience.
These markets are approaching the Oct. lows at too high a speed for a double bottom, and the dreaded parabola and today's low closes look likely to send the indices into cover in areas like DJIA 7200, SPX 745 and NAZ 1300, down another 13% into the next bear market lower low possibly Fri-Mon.
Bush and/or OB should really just shut down the markets and declare Level 3 status for equities and corporate debt everywhere, preventing impending pension fund and margin collapse and trillions in collateral damage. It'll be very grim if they don't.
The funny thing, looking back on it, is how long it took for even someone who predicted the disaster to grasp its root causes. They were learning about this on the fly, shorting the bonds and then trying to figure out what they had done. Eisman knew subprime lenders could be scumbags. What he underestimated was the total unabashed complicity of the upper class of American capitalism. For instance, he knew that the big Wall Street investment banks took huge piles of loans that in and of themselves might be rated BBB, threw them into a trust, carved the trust into tranches, and wound up with 60 percent of the new total being rated AAA.
But he couldnt figure out exactly how the rating agencies justified turning BBB loans into AAA-rated bonds. I didnt understand how they were turning all this garbage into gold, he says. He brought some of the bond people from Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and UBS over for a visit. We always asked the same question, says Eisman. Where are the rating agencies in all of this? And Id always get the same reaction. It was a smirk. He called Standard & Poors and asked what would happen to default rates if real estate prices fell. The man at S&P couldnt say; its model for home prices had no ability to accept a negative number. They were just assuming home prices would keep going up, Eisman says.
...
Thats when Eisman finally got it. Here hed been making these side bets with Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank on the fate of the BBB tranche without fully understanding why those firms were so eager to make the bets. Now he saw. There werent enough Americans with shitty credit taking out loans to satisfy investors appetite for the end product. The firms used Eismans bet to synthesize more of them. Here, then, was the difference between fantasy finance and fantasy football: When a fantasy player drafts Peyton Manning, he doesnt create a second Peyton Manning to inflate the leagues stats. But when Eisman bought a credit-default swap, he enabled Deutsche Bank to create another bond identical in every respect but one to the original. The only difference was that there was no actual homebuyer or borrower. The only assets backing the bonds were the side bets Eisman and others made with firms like Goldman Sachs. Eisman, in effect, was paying to Goldman the interest on a subprime mortgage. In fact, there was no mortgage at all. They werent satisfied getting lots of unqualified borrowers to borrow money to buy a house they couldnt afford, Eisman says. They were creating them out of whole cloth. One hundred times over! Thats why the losses are so much greater than the loans. But thats when I realized they needed us to keep the machine running. I was like, This is allowed? ...
court ordered cramdown? (bk) the markets (housing) need to moderate, so that people do not end up over leveraging. used to be you bk'd the credit cards, and tried to hold on to the secured stuff (the house) via chap 13, chap seven took out most debt, but was indifferent to the secured. hence the choice
debt will either be dissappeared or will entail individuals who do not escape the net.
not idealistic statement at the end, kinda looks like what's happenin' dig, groove, etc.
Nice website, but I think people who know whats going on and have the truth need to go out to those who are not informed and spend their time with Football, American Idol, myspace, and facebook too much. Those are the masses. They need to know whats going on
found this good blog online. sport book promotion its actually how I found this blog
The Bankers killed the Golden Goose.
Congress buried the body.
Congressmen like Christopher Dodd and Barney Frank stood by and watched.
4 million foreclosures.
2 million more foreclosures projected in 2009.
5 million facing foreclosures.
20% of homeowners projected to be underwater.
These victims have no voice,
These people became victims because they trusted their banker who took financial advantage of them.
The Congress has watched the lynching of these home owners and at the same time have
legislatively created trillions of dollars to protect the powerful and the wealthy.
These Congressional members have been bought and paid for by the wealthy and the powerful.
The bankers who lend mortgage money control every detail of the lending process. They determine the terms and conditions. They determine the documentation, the requirements, the rates, and who gets what. The borrowers have not control or input over the process. The Congress has passed no legislation to control the aberrant behavior of the federal savings bank lender.
Conversely the Congress has passed no legislation to permit the mortgage borrower
to object or contest their foreclosure within the same regulatory system that the bank lends its mortgage money.
Charlatans like Dodd and Frank pass legislation and then deny that the legislation was not for the purpose intended. These two charlatans have taken part in giving away almost two 2 trillions dollars to the wealthy and billions of dollars in tax breaks to the powerful banks.
But Not One Dime for the Citizens that were financially hung by the well connected bankers.
This financial holocaust as legislated by this Congress has made this Great Nation look and act like a financial prostitute. As an American I am ashamed of this Congress and angry that this Congress only serves the wealthy and the powerful.
Until my fellow Americans watch their house being sold by Congress at foreclosure because the federal bank violated what little rules there were and then lied about it, they can never really taste the political vomit of our elected federal officials.
There are millions of foreclosure victims that have no voice. Their silence is deafening.
I cant speak for all of them, for I am one of them.
Nemo!
I confess, I can't watch it.
Second!
I confess, I can't watch it. Meaning that my blood vessels will burst.
This is your Treasury Secretary on TARP:
Any Questions?
crap
The TARP knows no boundaries.
It was funny at the time, but has much more meaning now....
It's a TARP!
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the bailout has helped stabilize the U.S. financial system
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
That Erin is a creepy mealy-mouthed wretch. Carry on...
He didn't stutter as much today. Must be on Medication...
Paulson hijacked the treasury. Watching video of TARP is like hitting rewind of 9/11
Answer me this question. How is "fixing" housing helping his Friends at GS? Is paulson just pushing the chevy vega down the road for the next Treasury?
Are you liberals happy now that bailouts are everywhere?
that's one goofy looking orange tie. And a green jacket?
They should get McCain's people to take this guy shopping
Why doesn't Hank just give the whole $700b to C. They need it just to crawl out on insolvency to temporarily marginally capitalized.
Is this the Irish flag edition?
Wake me up when he gets around to announcing the Third Bank of the United States.
Sometimes, if you want to do something (lend!) you just have to do it yourself.
Is this the Irish flag edition?
Yeah what the hell is that?
Google shares trade below $300 for first time since 2005
synthetic cdo's in everyones stocking this Xmas
OT: If I have mutual fund losses, is it possible to sell for a tax write-off?
So, when is Hank "Ed McMahon" Paulson showing up at my door as the next billionaire clearinghouse winner? Where's my balloons, champagne, and roses?
Sperm Shack, why don't you bailout all over me, or I can bailout on you?
Can I be a bank, too?
irreverent,
Don't forget the 'clean' coal in all our stockings
"We in the US are well aware and humbled by our own failings and recognize our special responsibility to the global economy."
Oh shit.
"Before we acted, we were at a tipping point."
Now that we've given out billions of dollars to millionaires, we're at a tipping point.
rps-
He did show up. But you weren't home. The pony he was also bringing drank the champagne, ate the roses, and then suffocated on the balloons. So they carted everything off and left.
I have a glorious idea.
Take over all the pensions of the American auto companies. Turn it into a Credit Union of sorts backed up by the US government. Have the auto workers pay a portion of their salary into the thing and charge membership for other. In return consumers will get auto loans to buy US made cars and small business loans.
oH GREAT, you had to bring up coal stocks again.
It's good to know that the market has now been stabilized. Thanks Hank, all this time I thought we were still in a period of terrible volatility. What game was I watching?
What is it about angry, bald, older white men with red ties that Dubya finds so reassuring?
I bid U.S. $ 1.00 on the assets of the United States of Amerika.
Any offers?
Cordially,
Kilgore
we have pumpage starting at 2:08, but 8450 is looking like a slow climb so far
sportsfan (from three threads back lol),
hey thanks! c&c seems forced to confabulate on this issue, not sure why...
Today the IEA released their World Energy Outlook 2008, the big highlight IMNSHO is their estimate of the world wide decline rate at 6.7%, which replaces a widely held estimate of 4%...what this means is the treadmill is running significantly faster than the previous conventional wisdom.
With worldwide oil production around 85 MMBOD, instead of the first 3.4 MMBOD of new production being necessary to keep the global production rate flat, it is the first 5.7 MMBOD that is needed just to stay even...if you look around the planet for places adding production in MMBOD increments you will find it is a very short list.
Which ties into one of the other biggies from my POV, the amount of global production controlled by the NOC's (think Gazprom or Saudi Aramco or Iran or Venezuela) is already a majority and it is just going to ramp up from here.
Check out the info at IEA, and by all means think for yourself. But do it on an informed basis.
International Energy Agency (IEA)
blackhat writes:
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the bailout has helped stabilize the U.S. financial system
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
blackhat | Homepage | 11.12.08 - 2:30 pm
First one to photoshop that in a similar manner to Dubya's picture gets a cyber cookie
So we're not at tipping point anymore? Are we off the cliff?
Is paulson just pushing the chevy vega down the road for the next Treasury?,
I think its' the flame engulfing deadly explosive Ford Pintos
Got bean counters?
clinkclankclinkclank clink clank clink ... clank ..... clink......
WEEEEEEEE!!!!!
Comrade Vistulian writes:
MS writes (prior thread):
"I speak of shorting the euro...DRR
Been in it since low 40's."
Congrats on good move! Do you have target? I am looking to hedge large US$ cash position, and interested in alternatives and entry points.
Many thanks again for your reply,
2:30 pm pump only last for 10 mins?
"Stabilized" is the new "contained."
"Banks - must - continue - lending."
Bartenders must continue serving, even when the regulars have all passed out in their own puke.
Ok, being a goober, I had to go gin up a spreadsheet on "market moves around option expiration".
I looked at SPY, over the past ten years, so 121 expirations.
Average and standard deviation of percentage move in SPY:
On last day: -0.10% +/- 1.10
From 2 days before: -0.01% +/- 1.82
From 5 days before (a week): 0.20% +/- 2.72
So you have to go back a week before it's positive, and then still only by less than 1 percent.
Nothing-burger.
we think hank is trying to do a reverse batman, but he's just not as good painting the chart looking in a mirror
All that green makes him look like he's broadcasting on Al Jazeera
yagij,
Testerone poisoning. Dubya is fatally attracted to them; see Jim Gluckert/Gannon male model prostitute turned press corp in briefs.
If we're going to save the world, $700B aint gonna cut it.
Heck, $7 Tril aint gonna cut it.
Prepare yourselves for your Hobbesian future. Don't be blinded by the same doe-eyed morons who have lied to you continually. We are doomed. And positive thinking or delusion will not change this.
Get your camping gear, some food, and a few spiritual books and get ready.
We...are...going...straight...to...hell.
I wonder if Paulson sees himself as the greek god Atlas?
During the war of the TITANS, ATLAS stormed Olympus and threatened the Gods. And as punishment for this war crime, ZEUS sentenced him to hold up the heavens and bear their weight on his shoulders forever.
CSC, do you have an ETA on that arrival?
Currently Smoking Cannabis
You still building that bomb shelter?
http://www.professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFGotterdammerung.pdf
Trolling alert. Please skip over as I am often very one track
CSC,
Think that is the endpoint, but likely a bit more circuitous path to suck in the most peeps...just sayin'
False prophets and all that kind, who will show us the perpetrators of our woes and offer their neatly packages solution...
All the money on the planet will not fill the credit void that has been left by corruption and greed. Potter has no heart and even now controlling all the money, is still BROKE! Zu-Zu's Petals and angels wings could not fly us out of this $hithole.
Are you liberals happy now that bailouts are everywhere?
Doomster, is that you?
Anyhow Spermy is my new favorite CR commenter.
We...are...going...straight...to...hell.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 11.12.08 - 2:47 pm | #
There's always a bull market somewhere.
Buy pitchfork and cape manufacturers ...IMMEDIATELY!
My timeframes are too early. I suspected that the letters of credit mess would spill out by Halloween. Dead wrong.
But it aint here today, so we can prepare.
Tomorrow we'll be even more prepared.
But preparing the mind is the most important part.
Everybody ready to let go?
ATLAS was very relieved when the laboring HERACLES came along offering to give him a hand in return for a little help with some Golden Apples from the HESPERIDES.
ATLAS nipped off to get the apples but wasn't inclined to resume his burden. "Here, hold this a minute while I scratch my back," said HERACLES. And ATLAS, not the brightest apple in the barrel, did so while HERACLES made a sharp exit.
The awful burden was made slightly easier for ATLAS to bear when PERSEUS came along and turned him to stone with the head of MEDUSA. He's now known as Mount Atlas.
Haha... I just noticed that the volume for SMN today was over 5 million.
I remember not long ago there was a day where a couple of trades of mine accounted for almost half the daily volume with just a few thousand shares.
Testerone poisoning. Dubya is fatally attracted to them; see Jim Gluckert/Gannon male model prostitute turned press corp in briefs. - rps
With all due respect, given the topic presented for our comments by our genial host; don't you agree "The Administration" regardless of occupant(s) is the perpetrator?
By that I mean whomsoever may occupy the Executive events dictate response. The next President will push for higher taxes. Shock, surprise. How will that be different from what we see now? "Honesty?" GMAFB. Degrees of dishonesty at best.
CSC...Maybe you should prepare for the future and become Currently Growing Cannabis.
is the huge, unsustainable dollar rally which is resultant of $xyz hundred trillion in derivatives settlement really a cover for an engineered quick divestiture of dollar denominated asian assets?
payback or blackmail?
got to go folks, I've got a pitchfork market to corner...
CSC, why camp?
After all, I have a perfectly nice house owned by Citibank, with junior subordination by Chase. As for food, we still produce a ton of it, and we will soon see ration books if things get real bad.
If I get nothing, they get nothing, and I will continue to live in my house.
Funny pieces of paper are going to be very funny in the long run.
Panic has set in Paulson, and now almost nothing will stop it until it burns out. A long slow crisis is preferable to a quick drop, right?
Stall, stall stallllll.
We get more Argentine by the day.
Someday this war's gonna end...
CSC - There are several good grain mills and corn seeders dating from early 1900's for sale on ebay right now. I mention this because mine are due to arrive in the next couple of days.
I am detecting convulsive attempts to tag the trillion dollar bailouts designed by Republican White House and Republican Fed on.... liberals!!
LOL.
CSC--don't forget the C seeds or you will be CNSC
Paulson is incompetent. But he is a good liar.
CSC, $700 might actually do the trick if they didn't just piss it away.
They could literally buy WFC - the whole company - for $100 Bln, convert it to a true National Bank, intergate the operations of those things formerly known as "GSEs", and start buying up loans, guaranteeing them and selling "GMBS".
A simple approach can then be applied to all "troubled" mortgages: YOU COME TO US. We've running what is essentially HOLC part deaux. You'll get an offer from us in 24 hours or less. TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT. Don't like our short-refi offer? Go foreclose, then. This would go on until the rest of the $600 Bil is set aside for projected losses.
To allegiviate crushing the deposit biz from the other private banks, there will be new deposit accounts at the 3rd National Bank, unless your bank fails, then you get under the velvet rope since you know Sheila.
Duarte,
If you are still around, the comment from previous thread "Wal-mart imports about $20 billion from China which produces $350 billion in revenue. That $20 billion is never coming back, and the $350 billion in revenue lands mostly in some pretty deep pockets."
Proves you don't know shit about retail or overseas production. Go study for a few days and we will talk again.
Thanks for playing.
Anyhow Spermy is my new favorite CR commenter.ac
Sperminator is a quick one-hand yank.
Karelian,
This may be an unusual concept for you, but the party that is in charge when legislation passes usually gets blamed for the effects of that legislation.
Remember, it was only a short time ago that the nasty House Republicans were brutalized for preventing the bailout bill from passing.
I understand that the Republican administration "designed" and "implemented" the bailout, but liberals certainly do not get a pass in it passage.
Sorry, I meant to write there would be no new deposit accounts at Third National Bank of the United States.
Paulson is incompetent. But he is a good liar.
Given the parade of people through W's cabinet, I'd say that means he's doing the job he was hired to do.
The only really bad liar (Gonzalez) got fired for being a bad liar, not for being incompetent.
International Energy Agency (IEA)
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 11.12.08 - 2:42 pm | #
Just filling in.
I haven't gone to the source material yet, but I did read about it on a news story. It's all over the financial pages so c&c might see it somewhere.
It's funny how some folks are looking at the daily price of oil and thinking everything's gonna be fine.
It's really funny how so many commenters on this board can see massive demand destruction everywhere in the U.S. and world economies and not connect it to the curent price of oil.
Peak oil is for real and 85MMB/d is about it. Absent a big drop in world population, when this downturn is over, people will be shocked.
As far as the nationals go, it's scary, and hopefully the politics of the situation will not lead us to that big drop in world population all of a sudden. The fallout would be even worse.
Just got off a teleconference about mortgage crisis and community asset building.
Panelists said the single most important thing to do is change bankruptcy law to allow judges to modify primary residences.
I am sure the American voters appreciate that distinction, REL. That's why this election was such a triumph for GOP.
weak pumpage action, we may need the defibrillator today
Hmmmmm, did PPT go home early? Testing todays lows.
Spoke to an appraiser today that was asked to do a portfolio review for a small local bank. Wanted 500+ homes re-evaluated but the appraiser cannot use foreclosed homes in the valuation process. The problem is that 95% of all resales in that entire ZIP code were REO's. Bank was bolstering it's balance sheet so a 50-75K house would look like a 100-150K house to the Feds. The bank was on the FDIC watchlist....just fabulous...more trickery under the tarp.
karelian,
I don't get your point - the american voter is stupid, so you are allowed to blame everything on Republicans.
Great point. You win.
I am detecting convulsive attempts to tag the trillion dollar bailouts designed by Republican White House and Republican Fed on.... liberals!!
LOL.
As I see it the Republicans starting with Reagan have been very liberal in the fiscal sense. Also Keynesian style central management of the economy has also been very popular under Republican presidents, albeit with rate cuts rather than taxes (to his credit Keynes warned about inflationary forms of stimulus and seemed to prefer the tax system).
Personally I was hoping the democratic party would embrace a more fiscally conservative position to differentiate themselves from our profligate financially irresponsible republican friends.
Alas, borrow, borrow, borrow, spend, spend, spend seems to be the only politically viable option in our system.
Maybe what we need is a fiscally conservative but more socially moderate/liberal party.
We could call it the Anti-Neo-Con party.
Or the Regressive party.
Hank,
The nation shifted. You did great with the 290 billion we gave you but now it's time to give up the gig. The public has figured it out, shit Bloomberg sued you. That dickhead has aspirations as the 2012 third party candidate. He can finance it too. Dammit.
Wealth transfer from the taxpayers now has to shift back to the taxpayer. Silly huh? Idiots haven't figured out the next step of dollar devaluation but we will give you a few months to switch your paper to real assets. Get busy.
By the way we need a couple of wall street types to parade around and put in prison. Recommendations would be appreciated but not Dick Fuld. He's an asshole but he knows way too much.
Let Neel know he did great but his eyebrows need tweezed badly. Have him call Nancy for a stylist but stay away from her plastic surgeon, waaay to much botox, I know the congress bennies are great but he overcharged for shoddy work.
Gotta go but please let your replacement know what the f*ck to do with the Fed. Talk about a shitty balance sheet. No way are we putting lipstick on that pig. Stick around just in case we need to call you next year for the congressional investigations into fraud. Lieberman will be in charge, he's independent but if he does good we'll let him back in our club.
All the best,
The Dems
I am sure the American voters appreciate that distinction, REL. That's why this election was such a triumph for GOP.
In two years, the vote on the bailout bill may be the primary issue on the ballot in the same way the vote on iraq was in 2006/8.
Maybe a state senator somewhere took notes and stated publicly that he or she was against the bill.
BANG
so some astute investors consider the market overvalued?
change bankruptcy law to allow judges to modify primary residences.
Since "let them all go to foreclosure" doesn't seem to be popular, I'm a little surprised that
"let them all go to bankruptcy" has legs.
what panel was this?
OK - Alan Greenspan, Phil Gramm, George Bush, Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, Neel Kashkari.
You detect a pattern in party affiliation here?
And you are one of those people whining about Nancy Pelosi and Maxine Waters?
Please.
After he bails Santa and saves Christmas, do you think he will save Easter, Valentines Day and the tooth fairy?...I do hope he can save St. Pattys day.
Personally I was hoping the democratic party would embrace a more fiscally conservative position to differentiate themselves from our profligate financially irresponsible republican friends.
Balancing the budget was one of the top things on Nancy Pelosi's list when she took over as Speaker of the House. How things change...
Hank, want to buy my GS 135 Jan. puts?
No, I'm going to hold.
Sperminator is a quick one-hand yank.
You know, maybe you should consider that Spermy doesn't appreciate his handle being used for vulgar sexual innuendo.
Hank the yank.....don't get any on you!
Panelists said the single most important thing to do is change bankruptcy law to allow judges to modify primary residences.
s_puttnick | 11.12.08 - 3:04 pm | #
Panelists are right. I've been saying that ever since the issue arose.
We'll get true price discovery (and a housing bottom) right away.
Yes, let us whine about Nancy Pelosi some more.
She's the one who is responsible of the derivatives non-regulation fiasco and Greenspan's insane housing bubble.
Top 5 Items on Hank's Tarp II Shopping List:
5) Internal organ-backed securities
4) Invisible spray
3) itsallcontained.com
2) Crawford, TX
1) Whatever Goldman says its time to short
Idea...give all the money to lawyers and all the guns to the bankers and see who is left standing. The entire country would end up better off.
bouncing off 8350 @ 3:00, hank you used to be so good at this
@ jp
I'm so angry, I may have a stroke. I can only take little bits and pieces, and all on a full stomach.
Also from the teleconference, from a rep of the Nat'l Community Reinvestment Coalition speaking about the Hope Now program:
"The issue is the servicers who continue to impede major and long-term modifications."
TARP = Total Anal Rip Party
Angry Saver writes:
Paulson is incompetent. But he is a good liar.
Yeah, and he stutters less when he is telling more of the truth.
Help me I want to buy more USO at 45.
The TARP is dead, long live the TARP.
karelian,
You are the first commentor to bring up Pelosi or Waters - I certainly never did. On that note, however, please check your history books, I'm pretty sure Pelosi was house majority leader when the bailout bill passed.
Regardless of who you want to blame (you might as well blame Santa Claus for all the good it will do you), the liberals are now the ones the will need to provide leadership on where we go from here. If they spend all of their time trying to allocate blame instead of offering solutions (like with the Iraq war), we will be even more screwed than we already are.
those mortgage backed CDO's are going to be very hard to modify, though I can't give a handy reference right now
REL writes:
...we will be even more screwed than we already are.
REL | 11.12.08 - 3:15 pm
::shakes itself::
"Yes"
Right - blaming the Republicans who did the greatest damage would just be wrong.
So much for personal responsibility.
There is a Pelosi comment every 20 posts if you haven't noticed; about a dozen good little Karl Rove puppets mouthing the GOP talking points.
Anything to draw attention from what happened to derivatives regulation in 2001 and who pushed the interest rates to 1%.
Poor Hanky, the long breadlines at his TARP will never end. Feeding the rich is hardwork
irreverent writes:
"those mortgage backed CDO's are going to be very hard to modify,..."
Well, they had better get started on the accounting, because they're going to have to deal with it eventually. Too bad it turns out that they did not keep good records. Have you heard the stories about foreclosures failing because the servicer could not produce the mortgage papers?
those mortgage backed CDO's are going to be very hard to modify, though I can't give a handy reference right now
irreverent | 11.12.08 - 3:17 pm | #
I don't think the CDOs will be modified at all. Many mortgages wrapped up in them will be, though. The CDOs will simply be worth less, but still not worthless. Cash flow from them should improve.
Tip of the Day:
When fortifying your windows with plywood, be sure to leave murder holes so that your defenses will not be blinded and impotent.
Balancing the budget was one of the top things on Nancy Pelosi's list when she took over as Speaker of the House. How things change...
These people aren't leaders. The slaves to polls and special interests. Republicans and democrats both.
People around here like to warn about the dangers of idealism, yet it seems to me that the idealists are the only ones that don't immediately cave to special interests and opinion polls.
Maybe we need more, not less "dangerous" idealists in our political system.
Maybe we wouldn't have the problems we have today if we did.
Not really ...just feed the poor to the rich. The poor are becoming more abundant every day. See cannibalisim thread earlier....it would be self correcting.
the bottomfeeders have yet to appear, still overvalued I guess
The proper way to fix this crisis is to SPEED UP THE FORECLOSURE AND PRICE BOTTOMING PROCESS!!!
Stop slowing it down!
Reduce NODS to foreclosure lag to merely 45-60 days. Create a "fast-track" process for people who mail in their keys.
Reward them if they mail in their keys, and the residence is not trashed by reducing their tax liabilities from housing related losses.
Reduce Bank's incentive to hold houses on their account: Raise taxes on bank owned properties, levy city/local maintenance fees, Do an escalating fee fine, if the property is not sold in 30, then 60, then 90 days.
Banks must instantly declare their bad assets and securities to the Fed, including all off-balance sheet crap; in a small window (like 90 days); In exchange, the fed will then capitalize them and allow them into some kind of guarentee program.
First time homebuyers need a lot more incentive, have the govt guarentee the first 10% of losses to first time homebuyers -- they may take it as a tax credit if they do have a loss when they sell.
Specify a maximum capital ratio the banks can have, before they're revoked of their bank status and no longer able to participate in any Fed programs, including FDIC.
These will make things crash and burn quickly, but also allow recovery quickly.
Instead, we get the opposite. We're sooo f*cked!
Anything to draw attention from what happened to derivatives regulation in 2001
Gramm-Leach-Bliley is the exact reason why there should be no major legislation passed during this lame duck session...
I just read through over 100 comments about Paulson's speech and virtually none of them took him seriously.
This is a serious credibility issue now.
Doesn't anybody at Treasury or the Federal Reserver realize that they're a complete laughingstock over the entire nation, if not the world? To the tune of perhaps 90% of the population?
That's staggering.
Maybe that's why Paulson was wearing green and orange.
New industry! Making Henry Paulson voodoo dolls. Make great stocking stuffers.
Somebody better tell Hank that GS is down 11+%. Violating the Constitution and sh*tting on the USA - no big deal. But cratering, GS, now that's gonna cause some..er..hard feelings.
This is what American corporations have become:
Squeegee man - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
AGI, GM, American Express, you name it. They are all running up to our cars, washing our windshields and asking for donations. It's kind of sad what American capitalism has become.
"Maybe we need more, not less "dangerous" idealists in our political system."
More dangerous idealists like Alan Greenspan?
No, thanks.
More evidence of deflation:
3 LCD firms plead guilty in price-fixing scheme
The article requested is no longer available.
They were never worth that much anyway!
We are over the Cliff grasping at branches saying how in the hell did this happen and who in the hell can we blame it on.
The Goverment(our Goverment in US)has never been suck-sess-ful in any business venture I have ever known of.
Paulson is treading water waiting until Jan. 21 if he doesn't LITERALLY turn into a blood sucking Vampire before then.
Most older US Taxpayers have Toxic minds about wasted years of misused tax dollars, and are mad as hell.
Rel states:
"If they spend all of their time trying to allocate blame instead of offering solutions (like with the Iraq war), we will be even more screwed than we already are."
I like it when Repubs say that. Then I look back at how they castigated Clinton for his chubby intern and think their statement all so very quaint considering a look back at the past eight years.
Anyway, they are right. When someone shits on the picnic table then leaves right where you want to have a picnic you have to clean it up.
hc for king!
"They were never worth that much anyway!"
You have actually looked at the TV picture rather than just absorbing it by osmisis... I've always wondered how blind people can be to the crap picture most LCD's show.
Personally I'd be thrilled if our government spent more time laying blame and less time 'fixing' things.
hc,/b>,
I'm with you, mostly.
Create a "fast-track" process for people who mail in their keys.
Such a process already exists. It is called a "Deed-In-Lieu".
Although junior liens can throw a big-old wet blanket on that route, and many of the "troubled mortgages" have 2nds.
Broward Horne writes:
...This is a serious credibility issue now.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 11.12.08 - 3:22 pm
Jokes aside, what exactly are our officials going to do knowing their citizens have no confidence in their actions and no faith in their words?
If Dubya passed a FDR-like "Gold Seizure" law, would people honestly believe the law as it was written or start squirrel digs all over the place?
fuck. srry.
Tip of the Day:
When fortifying your windows with plywood, be sure to leave murder holes so that your defenses will not be blinded and impotent.
Ah hahaha
Nomination for comment of the day.
Man, if this has been the premarket trading, then I shudder to see what happens when the market opens.
PPT...
waiting
waiting
waiting...
anytime now...
USD/JPY is doing that thing again.
As I understand it the mortgages are held by a trustee for the bondholders that own the CDO's. Majority of bondholders must agree to restructuring. Mortgages are sliced into multiple bonds. Very complex to unravel the mess.
CSC
"When someone shits on the picnic table then leaves right where you want to have a picnic you have to clean it up."
That's what I was trying to say, except CSC said it better than I could have hoped to say it.
Right - blaming the Republicans who did the greatest damage would just be wrong.
For what it's worth as somebody who's probably a bit more conservative than the average CR minion, I think the Republicans far and away deserve the most blame as far as political figures go.
But how can you blame them for all the bubbles in other countries financed by foreign capital?
Did US politicians really cause the incredible real estate bubbles in Europe or the stock bubbles all around the world?
Or is some more elemental force at work here?
@yagij
Good question, but I'm afraid most Americans wouldn't even notice. Not unless they disguised the glod siezure as some sort of give-away-athon, like they do when they're trying to catch felons or child molesters.
"those mortgage backed CDO's are going to be very hard to modify, though I can't give a handy reference right now"
Couple of useful, quick references I saved from back when I was thinking about this stuff:
1) Around p. 8 of this guy:
http://clevelandfed.org/Our_Region/Community_Development/Publications/CRReport/CRReport_Fall2008.pdf
2) From a Georgetown law professor:
http://www.law.georgetown.edu/faculty/levitin/documents/MBSModificationIssues_000.pdf
3) From She of the Greasy Hair herself, see the section on "Loan Restructuring Challenges"
FDIC: Speeches & Testimony
GE says feds will guarantee new GE Capital debt: WSJ
good eye nemo, good eye.
"As I understand it the mortgages are held by a trustee for the bondholders that own the CDO's. Majority of bondholders must agree to restructuring. Mortgages are sliced into multiple bonds. Very complex to unravel the mess."
There's that little thing called Contractual Law. If you thought it was hard to sell GSE/Treasury debt now, just wait and see what happens once the Politicians start re-writing contract law after the fact.
virtualco: NYSE breadth is running 18:1 negative. Hard to engineer a rally against that kind of pressure.
House to consider new $25 billion loan for auto industry: Rep. Frank
Send lawyers, guns, and money:
Not unless they disguised the glod siezure as some sort of give-away-athon, like they do when they're trying to catch felons or child molesters.
Excellent! Megan's law; now applied to goldbugs.
You can now check online to see if a previously arrested or confessed goldbug lives next door.
Give that list to robbers, thieves and the underworld.
Gold will drop so fat it won't even be funny.
we are currently seeing the "riding a skateboard down the steps" pattern on the chart, which is a bumpy cliffdive
Ahhheeem... May I take this opportunity to make your acquaintace ?
I meant "so fast"... typo.
There is zero doubt that Greenspan created the Spanish and British housing bubbles. The US economy is so dominant that the 1% interest rate policy created a wall of hot money washing over the globe.
WOW
GE says feds will guarantee new GE Capital debt
I feel sick.
(and not just from Paulson's taste in clothes).
Doesn't anybody at the Treasury realize what they're doing?
I guarantee that there will be more guarantees to make you feel sick. Stock up on Pepto Bismol.
State Street and Citi turned down Goldman.... interesting....
Aw crap, "capitulation" has started being discussed again.
Guess it's time to sell the ultrashorts.
Can't you just stay quiet!
Say it with me now, the cry of the deflationist: They were never worth that much anyway!
"
I feel sick.
(and not just from Paulson's taste in clothes).
Doesn't anybody at the Treasury realize what they're doing?"
Of course they do. A leveraged debt-based economy dies as soon as debt stops growing.
blowing through 8300
@hc
Excellent idea - maybe people who have copies of that pesky Constitution, too.
...the PPT's been off since the election.....
I hope Greenspan lives long enough to be publicly flogged. He has direct responsibility for the tens of thousands being tossed out on the streets, without jobs and without prospects.
Nortel down 30%... markets beginning to price in bankruptcies among major tech infra names.
Karelian,
Now that you have correctly (at least in your own mind) apportioned the blame, what do you propose the soon to be Democratically-controlled U.S. government do about it? I don't think that publically shaming all the people that you think caused this problem is going to unring the bell (although it might be entertaining).
Citi, Hi! Here is your lapel pin and the club's by-laws. MS, hang n, I'll be right back.
These big sell-off days are about as orderly as it gets. Don't need my nitro on days like these.
Broward Horne writes:
Doesn't anybody at the Treasury realize what they're doing?
Nope. Look at how inconstant their policy has been, and how often they've had to reframe. Their response clearly telegraphs they have no true idea of the scope or nature of the challenge.
More dangerous idealists like Alan Greenspan?
If you look at Greenspan he actually seemed to manage the money supply in a very responsible manner early on in his career, then morphed into "Easy Al" later in his tenure.
Many others have made similar observations.
Sounds more like somebody capitulating to political pressure rather than somebody who's an idealist.
I think the pressure from Bush Senior's presidential loss (which he partly blamed Greenspan for) as well as the exciting prospect of those sleepovers at the White House caused him to give up what he thought was right for what he thought would make him popular.
"Guess it's time to sell the ultrashorts."
The next shoe to drop will probably a massive short squeeze. Friday perhaps?
vol's really low though, bouncing off 8300
maybe the smart people are exiting, but the fools hang o
"Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the bailout has helped stabilize the U.S. financial system."
Is this a joke or what? This guy is such a crook.
why is it "puppets mouthing talking points" when it's one party and when it's the other party "it's speaking truth to power". too funny. each side has puppets and talking points....get over it.
Wingnuts are just too funny. It's always "the Gingrich boom," or the "Clinton recession." I would have thought the first principle of conservative governance would be responsibility for one's actions. Instead, it's crony misrule, hand the mess off, then --even as you're blaming liberals! --say "It's not about assigning blame." Enjoy your wilderness years. You've earned them.
....there is no hope....we've gone too far....the remedies that need to be made will not....congress is too self-centered to make the required changes....Obama will have control of an empty checking account...
LOL! Don't you get it? That is the whole point - nothing can be done now.
GOP destroyed the US economy and Kashkari is doing a last-minute raid to ensure the debt load left for Obama is going to be beyond imaging.
No money for bridges or roads or education or healthcare - this is what Grover Norqvist wanted.
Republicans have ensured that there will be no social spending for the next 50 years. Game over.
There is nothing for anyone to "propose". No exit, no way out.
we are facing Weimar and the ascent of Palin/Huckabee wing of Jesus freaks to political supremacy as civil order crumbles.
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. said the U.S. government agreed to insure as much as $139 billion in debt for lending arm GE Capital Corp.,
Who would have seen this coming!!
sm landlord....i was thinking the same exact thing. SKF, SRS, SCC, and SZK all provided a nice little ride, maybe time to jump off for while.
........"from some of the rubble fires spring the new Nation-States using texts from a younger time"....
@m.f.n
True - puppets abound, but at least the Republican puppets are bald and wear funny-green suits. Fraid the Democrats haven't realized we are in a Dali painting now
Majority of bondholders must agree to restructuring. Mortgages are sliced into multiple bonds. Very complex to unravel the mess.
irreverent,
I don't see the problem in the context of bankruptcy. Assuming judges are once again given discretion to cram down owner-occupied residential mortgages, they do just that and the chips fall wherever they fall.
The bondholders don't agree to anything. They probably will send their servicer/trustee/designated agent into court to object. They will probably stop doing that once they realize it's a waste of money.
I'm not talking about voluntary modifications. I'm talking about a judge saying what the new mortgage terms are. The holders can argue about how they split the pie, but they can't argue the pie should be larger.
Evil Paulson is all about self-preservation. Covering CDO losses for private companies with borrowed money on non-transparent assets is financial suicide.
GS -13%
sm_landlord,
I've found a good intraday indicator to be the main headline on Google Finance.
As soon as it mentions continued decline, market rises. Mention of pared losses or some other drivel pushes the nose over.
That being said, when the declines start to get noticed is when you start hearing the "stocks are cheap again", which in turn drives more and more people to sit with their finger on the buy button waiting for the one piece of good news that signals the beginning of the great bull market of Generation O.
Very complex to unravel the mess.
It is not only complex, it is impossible to unravel. Not to mention unnessary. It's the individual mortgages one needs to worry about in order to "keep people in their homes".
The key is to provide a more lucrative loss-mit alternative to foreclosure. A party that will pay you .45 cents on the dollar for a mortgage that will yield .40 cents on the dollar if it were foreclosed and liquidated. Make it an relatively easy call to sell the "Troubled Asset" instead of foreclosing.
Wherever to get the capital to buy so many "Troubled Assets"? The $700 Bln TARP. Golly, it even has "Troubled Asset" in the name. How awesome.
But wait, the TARP has no infrastuture to service a shit-ton of mortgages not to mention re-securitize them? That's why the TARP needs to buy an existing 900-lb mortgage bank if it is to have any hope of doing jack shit wrt/"preventing foreclosures".
Just spewing off TARP funds to private banks and telling them in a stern voice to "lend" ain't gonna cut it.
I recently foreclosed in CA due to a medical hardship, with 80/20 first and second, no-refi, 100% purchase, and the house is about 120k underwater at short sale prices in the area (360k original in 2004). What will happen with my second loan if the sale of the property doesn't even cover the first? I'm basically insolvent, so will I owe the IRS anything after the dust settles?
Freeeeee faaaaalliiiii
karelian writes:
LOL! Don't you get it? That is the whole point - nothing can be done now
karelian, you are a wise man who speaks the truth. You watch the bank failures start to pile up now that the election is over and the Republicans lost. They don't give a shit anymore, Guys like Larry Kudlow will spin this mess on Obama.
A country who can not help the many who are poor can not save the few who are rich.
crash
never mind that floor, it needed to be replaced.
sportsfan writes:
Panelists said the single most important thing to do is change bankruptcy law to allow judges to modify primary residences.
s_puttnick | 11.12.08 - 3:04 pm | #
Panelists are right. I've been saying that ever since the issue arose.
We'll get true price discovery (and a housing bottom) right away.
sportsfan | 11.12.08 - 3:11 pm | #
No, please. This is the best way to encourage defaults. Is that what you really want? Is it because you were foolhardy and now owe more than you can pay? Again, why must I pay for your silliness. I am more than willing to farm my land and defend against any that would try to take from me if the whole system goes down but I am not ready to reward bad behavior. Let the irresponsible dolts starve or freeze in the streets. It is not the fault of people that lived within their means and we should not be expected to bail them out. I was driving an old Chevy while big spenders that now need mortgage resets were driving new BMWs. Let them live in the car for all I care.
mommy...
s_puttnick,
stocks are going to be much cheaper in terms of hard assets.
The world has changed, and the new world will stun a lot of the republican fools who think the world will ever look the same.
As for the comments the Treasury is broke, empty, etc.
Bunk. All this takes is federal spending, and lots of it.
Which we shall see shortly.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Karelian:
we are facing Weimar and the ascent of Palin/Huckabee wing of Jesus freaks to political supremacy as civil order crumbles.
Regional power maybe. They don't have a viable power base for a state.
Is it possible that they are now backtracking on the TARP program because the UST cant effectivley borrow 700B in the very short term??
Mw Could we cue up Bohemian rhapsody by queen.
thank you
B.R. I think you are right, and the Repbulicans in state governments that don't play ball with the new playbook are going to find that the renewal projects don't go to places that hate dems.
Reward the base- now meet the new base.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Byzantine_Ruins writes:
Regional power maybe. They don't have a viable power base for a state.
Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 11.12.08 - 3:47 pm
Another Academic Question: What would you call a "Warring States Period" in America? A Civil War or something more poetic or dramatic?
Feels like a little short squeeze in the final inning.
Duarte | 11.12.08 - 3:45 pm | #
Duarte, you should get real advice from a lawyer and not believe too much of what you read on the internet.
Seriously,
karelian writes:
LOL! Don't you get it? That is the whole point - nothing can be done now.
I hope, but do not expect, that the Democratic government you helped elect has a better plan than to sit back and watch it burn, all the while assuring everyone that it wasn't their fault.
What you don't understand is that I'm not a Republican - they deserve plenty of the blame - I just haven't heard anything that resembles leadership from the Democratic side of the aisle. If the first thing the Democrats do is bail out the auto industry by giving money directly to the Detriot three, I certainly do not see that as a step in the right direction.
btw, new thread
AllanM:
As for the comments the Treasury is broke, empty, etc.
Bunk. All this takes is federal spending, and lots of it.
Afraid not, man. This is one of the things about the world that changed recently. The US gvt doesn't have a black check for unlimited debt any more.
Duarte do some BK research. You may not need a lawyer if you can follow the Code.
GOP destroyed the US economy and Kashkari is doing a last-minute raid to ensure the debt load left for Obama is going to be beyond imaging.
We all destroyed the economy. If you want to say that the Republicans destroyed it the most, I think you have a good case.
But the simple fact is that I and others were around sites like this one in 2005 and 2006 screaming about how we were destroying the financial system, but I didn't hear one party or another screaming that we need to stop it too.
Just a handful of people that were called crazy fringe lunatics.
Karelian -
Paulson's a Democrat. So was Greenspan and his trophy wife Andrea Mitchell (some trophy). So is Buffett. And Soros. Two of the biggest cheeleaders of this bailout.
So I guess there goes your vast right wing KOS-spiracy theory.
Another Academic Question: What would you call a "Warring States Period" in America? A Civil War or something more poetic or dramatic?
yagij | 11.12.08 - 3:50 pm | #
Gerrymandering?
By research I mean US Bankruptcy first sources. They have been making it easier for the intelligent layman to proceed.
BR, we have the printing press, and we will use it.
Damn the foreign holders of US debt, they are already under the bus and just don't know it.
Most of the folks here who think they are safe and smart just don't know how screwed they really are.
This is a fascinating time to be watching the financial system wither and die by the minute.
Confidence is totally shot, and now we have to do that adjustment to a much lower level of economic activity.
But the feds will stimulate to prevent total collapse, and accomplish most of their wet dreams of infrastructure.
Just hope you don't like a lot of imported stuff- the prices will soon be fantastic.
Someday this war's gonna end...
All Fall Down,
Filing bankruptcy is not a reward for anyone. Sorry you misunderstood what I've been saying.
Getting to a housing bottom soon seems important to me. Preventing that with a bunch of artificial financial constructs like CDOs and passing laws to make debts not dischargeable in bankruptcy makes the problem worse.
As for myself, I live very frugally.
Short squeeze, op-ex rally, value, etc.
Short lived at best.
I think we'll see a successful attack at 830.
Tm writes:
Paulson's a Democrat. So was Greenspan
HAHAHAAHAH
You must be joking
Seriously, Greenspan is an Ayn Rand hack, Paulson was appointed by Bush, not Clinto
"Citizen Virtualco reporting for duty Mr. Citizen AllenM sir."
"Be advised elevator is going down."
Why would I have to declare BK? As I understand the law in CA, the second loan is pretty much a complete loss for the lender, and they rarely do anything about it for 100% purchase price loans. Even if they forgive all of the debt, I'm insolvent, so according to the IRS, I will not owe anything. Does someone understand to the contrary?
yagij writes:
Another Academic Question: What would you call a "Warring States Period" in America? A Civil War or something more poetic or dramatic?
Academically, it'd be an "interdynastic interregnum" or "lacuna of rule". It will probably find its own name or names as a period.
Newsreel announcer: Young people from all over the globe are joining up to fight for the future.
Soldier #1: I'm doing my part.
Soldier #2: I'm doing my part.
Soldier #3: I'm doing my part.
Young kid dressed up as a soldier: I'm doing my part too.
[Soldiers laugh]
Newsreel announcer: They're doing their part. Are you? Join the Mobile Infantry and save the world. Service guarantees citizenship.
Duarte, you don't have to declare BK. Just consult with a lawyer about the particulars of your situation, get some good advice, and sleep well.
Citizen AllenM writes:
BR, we have the printing press, and we will use it.
Oh they can fill the Treasury with as many Weimar marks as they want. That won't make it any less empty when the Treasury fails start.
In theory they could run things by direct expropriation etc but it's a fast-moving crisis and it's their first attempt to govern centrally with a five year plan. The more plenipotentiary power they have / are given, the greater the scope for newbie error.
Who was it that said last night that engineering is incremental and people who try to go to far too fast get a deserving slapdown by reality? State function is the same way.
Oh, that's not bad, just down a little over 400.
That's the new "moderate down".
I guess people have sen that ResCap bonds imploded today on the Hanktator's decision.
"It's as easy as... G-M-A-C."
GE Capital said it received approval for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's temporary liquidity guarantee program under which the government guarantees certain banking debt.
GE Capital can issue up to $139 billion of government guaranteed debts, the unit of General Electric said in a statement. The program will be effective on or before Nov. 14.
"This will allow us to source our debt competitively, the company said.
GE Capital can issue up to $139 billion of government guaranteed debts, the unit of General Electric said in a statement. The program will be effective on or before Nov. 14.
"This will allow us to source our debt competitively, the company said.
TARP AS BUSINESS MODEL! YES!
"Sounds more like [Greenspan] capitulating to political pressure rather than somebody who's an idealist."
I've long held that after seeing the productivity brought on by technologies starting in the 90's, he genuinely believed he could and would be the architect of the transition to functional globalization.
He, and others, however, were seduced by the notion that the derivatives could rechannel the risk, and that systemic returns would increase because of increases in utility that would come from better matching investor preferences for risk with return streams which met those preferences.
Thus the central banks let loose the "shadow banking system," and all the agents who reaped gains from mispricing and misallocation via derivatives based faux credit.
Problem was, that idea didn't and doesn't work. Separating risk from the underlying credit causes mis-pricing of both the risk and the credit because the information channel between borrower and lender is cut.
So instead of the Father of the Global Miracle, he's the Goat, and history is going to deal very harshly with him.
I need to revise the Video showing Paulson behind the Dept of the Treasury podium.
He's in a canoe facing the audience and, of course, bailing his heart out...but the canoe is stabilizing and amazingly not sinking until the very end when he abandons his bucket and grabs both sides of the canoe and walks off stage, canoe in hand --an old Marx Bro sight gag.
I need it now.
sportsfan
I have no problem with anyone filing for bankruptcy and agree that it is not a reward. However, I have financed several dozen homes at the time I did so the purchasers and I entered into an agreement whereby they would pay a stated amount at stated terms until the mortgage was paid off. If they failed to perform, I would take the house back and resell it to someone else that could pay for it. Nowhere did I sign that a judge could restate the amount or terms of the sale in a bankruptcy court. I believe that is the case in all mortgages, and I would rather burn down a house that I reposess than have some bleeding heart judge or congressass rewrite the laws. I have played by the rules and won. Just because someone else THINKS they deserve something that was paid for by my labor is no cause for me to give it to them. Let them play by the rules, pay for what they buy, lose what they do not pay for and learn from the experience.
These markets are approaching the Oct. lows at too high a speed for a double bottom, and the dreaded parabola and today's low closes look likely to send the indices into cover in areas like DJIA 7200, SPX 745 and NAZ 1300, down another 13% into the next bear market lower low possibly Fri-Mon.
Bush and/or OB should really just shut down the markets and declare Level 3 status for equities and corporate debt everywhere, preventing impending pension fund and margin collapse and trillions in collateral damage. It'll be very grim if they don't.
Good luck with that Randian viewpoint living through the next ten years, AFD.
It sure is going to take some major abuse.
Now we find out that the entire edifice is interdependent, and it will fail without sufficient interjection of fiscal and monetary stimulation.
One of the most interesting things is how fast everybody believes in deflation.
All I see is a massive liquidity crisis killing off margined players.
Someday this war's gonna end...
ac,
Did US politicians really cause the incredible real estate bubbles in Europe or the stock bubbles all around the world?
Or is some more elemental force at work here?
Yes, securitization! No other country had securitization even remotely approaching U.S. levels. This was pure greed and in essence fraud!
Note this paragraph from that that MUST read piece posted yesterday:
The End by Michael Lewis
The End Of Wall Streets Boom - News Markets - Portfolio.com
The funny thing, looking back on it, is how long it took for even someone who predicted the disaster to grasp its root causes. They were learning about this on the fly, shorting the bonds and then trying to figure out what they had done. Eisman knew subprime lenders could be scumbags. What he underestimated was the total unabashed complicity of the upper class of American capitalism. For instance, he knew that the big Wall Street investment banks took huge piles of loans that in and of themselves might be rated BBB, threw them into a trust, carved the trust into tranches, and wound up with 60 percent of the new total being rated AAA.
But he couldnt figure out exactly how the rating agencies justified turning BBB loans into AAA-rated bonds. I didnt understand how they were turning all this garbage into gold, he says. He brought some of the bond people from Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and UBS over for a visit. We always asked the same question, says Eisman. Where are the rating agencies in all of this? And Id always get the same reaction. It was a smirk. He called Standard & Poors and asked what would happen to default rates if real estate prices fell. The man at S&P couldnt say; its model for home prices had no ability to accept a negative number. They were just assuming home prices would keep going up, Eisman says.
...
Thats when Eisman finally got it. Here hed been making these side bets with Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank on the fate of the BBB tranche without fully understanding why those firms were so eager to make the bets. Now he saw. There werent enough Americans with shitty credit taking out loans to satisfy investors appetite for the end product. The firms used Eismans bet to synthesize more of them. Here, then, was the difference between fantasy finance and fantasy football: When a fantasy player drafts Peyton Manning, he doesnt create a second Peyton Manning to inflate the leagues stats. But when Eisman bought a credit-default swap, he enabled Deutsche Bank to create another bond identical in every respect but one to the original. The only difference was that there was no actual homebuyer or borrower. The only assets backing the bonds were the side bets Eisman and others made with firms like Goldman Sachs. Eisman, in effect, was paying to Goldman the interest on a subprime mortgage. In fact, there was no mortgage at all. They werent satisfied getting lots of unqualified borrowers to borrow money to buy a house they couldnt afford, Eisman says. They were creating them out of whole cloth. One hundred times over! Thats why the losses are so much greater than the loans. But thats when I realized they needed us to keep the machine running. I was like, This is allowed? ...
RE, thanks, good stuff.
sportsfan you are right, but the law must change
talking about the voluntary cramdown variety
court ordered cramdown? (bk) the markets (housing) need to moderate, so that people do not end up over leveraging. used to be you bk'd the credit cards, and tried to hold on to the secured stuff (the house) via chap 13, chap seven took out most debt, but was indifferent to the secured. hence the choice
debt will either be dissappeared or will entail individuals who do not escape the net.
not idealistic statement at the end, kinda looks like what's happenin' dig, groove, etc.
Nice website, but I think people who know whats going on and have the truth need to go out to those who are not informed and spend their time with Football, American Idol, myspace, and facebook too much. Those are the masses. They need to know whats going on
found this good blog online.
sport book promotion its actually how I found this blog
The Bankers killed the Golden Goose.
Congress buried the body.
Congressmen like Christopher Dodd and Barney Frank stood by and watched.
4 million foreclosures.
2 million more foreclosures projected in 2009.
5 million facing foreclosures.
20% of homeowners projected to be underwater.
These victims have no voice,
These people became victims because they trusted their banker who took financial advantage of them.
The Congress has watched the lynching of these home owners and at the same time have
legislatively created trillions of dollars to protect the powerful and the wealthy.
These Congressional members have been bought and paid for by the wealthy and the powerful.
The bankers who lend mortgage money control every detail of the lending process. They determine the terms and conditions. They determine the documentation, the requirements, the rates, and who gets what. The borrowers have not control or input over the process. The Congress has passed no legislation to control the aberrant behavior of the federal savings bank lender.
Conversely the Congress has passed no legislation to permit the mortgage borrower
to object or contest their foreclosure within the same regulatory system that the bank lends its mortgage money.
Charlatans like Dodd and Frank pass legislation and then deny that the legislation was not for the purpose intended. These two charlatans have taken part in giving away almost two 2 trillions dollars to the wealthy and billions of dollars in tax breaks to the powerful banks.
But Not One Dime for the Citizens that were financially hung by the well connected bankers.
This financial holocaust as legislated by this Congress has made this Great Nation look and act like a financial prostitute. As an American I am ashamed of this Congress and angry that this Congress only serves the wealthy and the powerful.
Until my fellow Americans watch their house being sold by Congress at foreclosure because the federal bank violated what little rules there were and then lied about it, they can never really taste the political vomit of our elected federal officials.
There are millions of foreclosure victims that have no voice. Their silence is deafening.
I cant speak for all of them, for I am one of them.
Michael LittleBig
11-13-08