Whitehead: "Worse than the Depression"
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CalculatedRisk on Wed, 11/12/2008 - 1:40pm (317 comments)
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Oh no, why did I have to be first on this scary one? Is that a sign?
1st?
FIRST?
Drats...spoiled again.
Somebody throw a TARP over this guy to shut him up!
look at the bright side: someone finally OVER estimated the problem!
Mr. Whitehead, if it's any consolation, I agree with you. Truth is so refreshing and so rare. If not truth, honesty.
Depressions aren't scary. They are just hungry.
I think he is plagerizing from CR
My depression will be bigger than yours!
But, but those smart people on CNBC told me we reached the bottom today. So I bought lots of stocks.
Also, I thought deficits didn't matter since Reagan.
road to disaster, I think it's a supertrain
Go long apple stands?
CR's closing comment would be a lot more reassuring if so many "extremely unlikely" things had not already happened.
Yes, but but is it going to be as bad as Thanksgiving at my in-laws?
Whitehead is channeling Denninger
Just another whiney perma-bear that doesn't believe in.....wait, who said that?
Is Whitehead a regular around here?
Notice what he says about the creditworthiness of the US of A. THAT is where the real problem will lie, eventually. The USA is insolvent.
I wonder how one compares the current situation to the depression and decides if it's better or worse. Is there a single metric somewhere?
After hours update:
CROX crashing
4:51 p.m.
Applied Materials to cut 1,800 jobs; earnings tumble 45%
4:50 p.m.
National Semiconductor to cut 330 jobs
...and he's right.
So we flew right by "as bad as" and went straight for "worse than". It's possible, but only economically speaking. Socially, it will be entirely different - no Dust Bowl farmers looking for work in the cities. Maybe it'll be the other way around.
Someone on tv said that tomorrow, Nov 13 is the anniversary of something bad with the market during the GD. Googled it, but don't see anything. Anybody know?
Whitehead is a terribly unfortunately name if you are a teenage with serious acne problems. Just saying.
agreed, how is all the treasury debt to float? buyers please?
crispy&cole | Homepage | 11.12.08 - 5:00 pm
thats, hmmm, 60k jobs gone just this week?
I wonder how one compares the current situation to the depression and decides if it's better or worse. Is there a single metric somewhere?
labrador
He's 86. He knew the Great Depression, and young man; while the Great Depression was no friend of his, this is no Great Depression--it's worse!
Fear and freedom are at war.
Whitehead is a terribly unfortunately name if you are a teenage with serious acne problems. Just saying.
Or a bald white dude.
Whitehead's just waving a red flag: someone's gotta pay for all this, or your credit is toast. And, at this point, what else but credit do you have?"
He overstates, on purpose.
"'On the other hand,' Whitehead added, 'We didn't have Viagra during the Great Depression. So we've got that going for us. Which is good.""
Hey where is JJ defending his turf - didn't he trademark the "Greater Depression" line?
About Denninger's story
Is it really a big thing? Has this happened before?
Denninger is an alarmist. No denyig this sounds big but can someone with knowledge confirm if this is really breaking Ben's back?
Thanks.
I suspect that the analysis content of this blog is down because people are engaged in assimilation.
It's probably temporary.
Notice the shift to disbelief and humor in the comments.
A large # of people will be in a form of denial. In my experience, it's a form of shock where they limit their inputs, they may be quiet or slow for awhile.
There is a major cultural belief shift in progress. Big, really big. Bigger than anything we've seen before.
My metric might be unemployment except the numbers are so cooked now they are irrelevant. Maybe it'll be pitchfork and torch density...
gonna miss those synthetic CDO's
"Whitehead is a terribly unfortunately name if you are a teenage with serious acne problems. Just saying."
lol
Volker the Viking writes:
He's 86. He knew the Great Depression...
Good point. Still, I haven't seen any shanty towns yet. Not to say we won't, but his prediction is as extreme as saying we'll be where we were least year by next year.
Does this mean I will have to walk to work, uphill both ways, with cardboad soles in my crocs?
If you want to get your money out of the U.S., out of dollars, and into a giant company that mines every commodity that the good earth creates, BHP is looking pretty attractive at today's close.
They are going to be set for the Asian rebound, whenever it occurs.
Whenever it occurs, it will be at least 2-3 years before any U.S. rebound.
Whitehead could just be creating excessive expectations to the downside so that GS can overcome them . . . but, then, it seems like what someone said was implausible 3 months ago turns out to be true . . . not very reassuring
ot sure if this was posted since i was passing out newspapers all day. this just seems to be a warning to lenders -
Interagency Statement on Meeting the Needs of Creditworthy Borrowers
FDIC: Press Releases - PR-115-2008 11/12/2008
Specifically, the FDIC encourages institutions it supervises to lend prudently and responsibly to creditworthy borrowers, work with borrowers to preserve homeownership and avoid preventable foreclosures, adjust dividend policies to preserve capital and lending capacity and employ compensation structures that encourage prudent lending.
State nonmember institutions' adherence to these expectations will be reflected in examination ratings the FDIC assigns for purposes of assessing safety and soundness, their compliance with laws and regulations, and their performance in meeting the requirements of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA).
It will be much worse than the Great Depression, because:
INTC just pre annoucned...ugly wow how does grass taste...
ova: Hungry Ponies writes:
Does this mean I will have to walk to work, uphill both ways, with cardboad soles in my crocs?
nova: Hungry Ponies | 11.12.08 - 5:04 pm |
LOL!!!!!
rich,
Why not buy physical hard assets instead of mining companies that have a tendancy to hedge?
INTC: $2B revenue miss..
Intel warns AGAIN?
And ALREADY?
ova: Hungry Ponies writes:
Does this mean I will have to walk to work, uphill both ways, with cardboad soles in my crocs?
nova: Hungry Ponies | 11.12.08 - 5:04 pm | #
LMFAO!!!
We may not have shanty towns yet, but we do have squatters living in foreclosed houses. We have too many houses to need shantytowns just yet. But who says we are near the worst? Not Mr. Whitehead and certainly not I.
I'd be talking about depression too if my stock went from $240 to $60 too!
I love it when rich guys become poor because they are so greedy, it just sucks that they are taking us down too.
"I wonder how one compares the current situation to the depression and decides if it's better or worse" asks labrador
Actually, yes.....
During Depression years they had a rail to ride looking for jobs and companionship. Today, the train tracks have been turned into green walking paths full of dog shit and the metal sold. Feets don't fail me now.
INTC halted
AH update;
INTC Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Intel's warning is universal... it is galaxy-embracing... all regions, all categories.
Sports Guy Lafleur writes:
It will be much worse than the Great Depression, because:
All painfully true. But we're Americans, the greatest workforce in the world. And we have iPods and mobile phones, too.
Actually, it will be interesting to see where people make their cuts. It looks like they already started with Starbucks.
So worse than the Great Depression?
Therefore the
a) Greater Depression,
b) Greatest Depression, or
c) House warming gift for
President Obama.
And why does Whitehead hate Amerika
so much?
And wow, G W Bush is looking like
or generations Hoover more & more.
I look forward to fireside chats with BHO while sitting next to may make shift tent (made from
a TARP) with a cup of sour mash close at hand.
Godless capitalist. Let him eat dirt.
"Whitehead has taken the next step - however I think "worse than" is extremely unlikely."
That's a safe bet. "Worse than" is a pretty meaningless assertion. Higher high to low in the Dow would mean something but still be a stupid metric.
All you guys are talking about dragons in the sky and how they're worse or better than old dragons seen years ago - nature of your business.
In the first place, what the f*** difference does it make whether it's "worse" or "worser" or "worst?" Hmmm?
That's about as relevant as whether intelligent life exists five hundred light years from here. Yes. No. Who cares? Nobody from here is going to talk to anybody there so it's just empty-headed speculation passing for profundity - Carl Sagan be damned.
Whitehead would make less of ass of himself if he just said he was very pessimistic about the future. Sounds like he's, as all these fools do, talking his book and the book is very very short.
Gosh, too bad FDIC didn't enforce that stuff 3 years ago.
Also, a thought about the regulation:
I think when the madness is upon us, as in the bubble and tulip bubble and war mongering and whatever, the madness is on virtually all of us, including the government. Thus, it is possible, at least, that even someone like Volker might be caught up, or so much in the minority that he would be overruled by people laughing at his fears.
And I repeat, how is Tanta, and is CR projecting something worse than he was formerly?
Intel's warning is universal... it is galaxy-embracing... all regions, all categories.
karelian | 11.12.08 - 5:09 pm |
A big deal is what your trying to say?
You can come kicking and screaming, CR, but you're coming.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined from 381.17 on September 3 to a low of 198.69 on November 13, a decline of 48%
Maybe the crisis will be so bad that it goes full circle to being good.
I've been calling this period "the Pivot Point" for several years and it's related to Naomi Klein's work on Disaster Capitalism.
What we do and say during the Pivot Point has meaning. From April, 2006 -
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=the_malaise
Lots of personal stuff but the relevant paragraph is...
For various reasons, I think it's likely that the period of 2009-2012 will be a Pivot point, similar to the state change from the 2000 stock market crash. If the Pivot is real, then now, this next four years, are the Set Of The Pivot, the period in which small changes magnify over time, when small actions determine the pitch and incline of the components of the Pivot.
It's likely that the Pivot will be political or economic in nature, not technological
I consider this to be one of the most interesting and important things I've read in the past fifteen years -
The E. F. Schumacher Society • Buddhist Economics
What we do and say now matters.
Rich,
Thanks for the information.
This is one of those times i feel i have so much information that i don't know what to do.
JBR writes:
"... But is Los Angeles protected by some sort of forcefield?"
Yes. We have thousands of aliens hooked up to a matrix-powered field generator.
It's getting harder to find aliens, though, so I'm not sure how much longer the field will hold.
Yeah, but my Great Depression goes to eleven.
so there.
"Does this mean I will have to walk to work, uphill both ways, with cardboad soles in my crocs?"
Monty Python's Flying Circus - "Four Yorkshiremen"
FIRST YORKSHIREMAN: You were lucky. We lived for three months in a paper bag in a septic tank. We used to have to get up at six in the morning, clean the paper bag, eat a crust of stale bread, go to work down t' mill, fourteen hours a day, week-in week-out, for sixpence a week, and when we got home our Dad would thrash us to sleep wi' his belt.
SECOND YORKSHIREMAN: Luxury. We used to have to get out of the lake at six o'clock in the morning, clean the lake, eat a handful of 'ot gravel, work twenty hour day at mill for tuppence a month, come home, and Dad would thrash us to sleep with a broken bottle, if we were lucky!
THIRD YORKSHIREMAN: Well, of course, we had it tough. We used to 'ave to get up out of shoebox at twelve o'clock at night and lick road clean wit' tongue. We had two bits of cold gravel, worked twenty-four hours a day at mill for sixpence every four years, and when we got home our Dad would slice us in two wit' bread knife.
FOURTH YORKSHIREMAN: Right. I had to get up in the morning at ten o'clock at night half an hour before I went to bed, drink a cup of sulphuric acid, work twenty-nine hours a day down mill, and pay mill owner for permission to come to work, and when we got home, our Dad and our mother would kill us and dance about on our graves singing Hallelujah.
FIRST YORKSHIREMAN: And you try and tell the young people of today that ..... they won't believe you.
time to replace the sacks of fluoride in the water with sacks of prozac
"Bush = Carter America is hostage, but we don't know if that will end.
Obama = Reagan"
Does this mean that Bernanke's helicopters will crash when they come to rescue us?
Meanwhile, from today's definition of "irony", here's the very first link Reuters has on the page next to this story:
Greenberg: AIG 'Toast' If Not Stabilized
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, who was chief executive of American International Group Inc (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) for nearly four decades, said on Wednesday the insurer's financial position must be stabilized swiftly if it is to have any future.
Hey, Hank, who's supposed to be doing the "stabilizing", I wonder? Ah, yes, that's right: me and my fellow taxpayers, to the tune of a couple hundred billion HankBucks(tm).
Remind me again why we're at risk of another Great Depression? Something about a credit crisis and out-of-control government spending, wasn't it?
You just couldn't make this stuff up.
aClem writes:
We may not have shanty towns yet, but we do have squatters living in foreclosed houses.
So the shadow RRE inventorry is also the shadow shanty town. See how things work out. This is like those synergies we'realways hearing about.
CR- "So far most of the Great Depression discussions have been phrased in terms of "worst since". Whitehead has taken the next step - however I think "worse than" is extremely unlikely."
Conjure says, "CR, I think the difference lies in the fact that, the last time around, the US didn't default. This time around will be different."
Part of what made the depression so bad was the stupid policies intended to fix things - wage freezes, extended bank holidays, etc. And even some of the near-term fixes that did help in the 30's became permanent fixtures (30 yr. mortgages, only 20% down, etc.) that became the conservative norm over time.
Our current economic mess is too original to compare to past crises. The more apt comparisons are probably against economic crises in other nations and not other economic crises in the US.
LRJ
Whitehead would make less of ass of himself if he just said he was very pessimistic about the future. Sounds like he's, as all these fools do, talking his book and the book is very very short.
Dude he is 86 - and he has been persistnetly negative about comp at the banks calling it a disgrace. the guy makes the same point about the US being bankrupt. he is only stating the obvious with a louder megaphone
I agree with it being a pivot point. Rather more like preparing the ground for the coming pivot point. They were probably a series of them, close together, and international.
NASDAQ futures down 59
labrador and aclem: if you haven't seen shanty towns, you're not looking. google "tent cities"
Is INTC open yet???
There is a major cultural belief shift in progress. Big, really big. Bigger than anything we've seen before.
Broward Horne
I'm listening with both my ears wide open. Please articulate this '...major cultural belief shift...'.
Weimar USA
We could have a contraction of the economy similar to what happened in the Great Depression and our quality of life would still be a lot higher than it was then because the 60+ years of economic growth, infratructure improvements, etc that we've had in the interim aren't just going to go away. The TVA dams, interstate highways, huge agriculture advances, air conditioning, communications etc aren't going to disappear.
I have mini shanty towns in the woods next to me, and down the road about a mile.
Just cause you don't see them dosen't mean they are not there.
Still, I haven't seen any shanty towns yet.
Then you ain't been to Detroit.
Intel opens in eight minutes.
Gasoline demand falls despite price slide: Mastercard
Gasoline demand falls despite price slide: Mastercard
| Reuters
U.S. retail gasoline demand slipped last week despite a fall in the national average price for the fuel, MasterCard Advisors said on Tuesday.
American motorists pumped an average of 8.898 million barrels per day in the week that ended November 7, down 1.3 percent from the previous week, MasterCard said in its weekly SpendingPulse report.
Demand for the fuel remained 4.2 percent below year-ago levels, as the U.S. economy continued to slow down.
The four-week moving average for gasoline demand was also lower, down 5.3 percent from a year ago.
National average prices slid another 24 cents -- or 9.4 percent -- to $2.32 per gallon, about where it was in late February 2007.
A Reuters poll showed energy analysts believe that the Energy Information Administration will report gasoline stocks rose 300,000 barrels.
thx
Question: What is worse than the Depression?
Answer: 1. A software bubble when you aren't invested in tech. 2. A real estate bubble when you don't own real estate. 3. A gov't bailout when you are not too big to fail.
If people really believed this, then gold wouldn't be trading at $720/oz.
Denninger is extrapolating from one auction from the TAF. Companies could be getting loans from one of the other programs. If the failed auction portends no demand, then yes, the Fed is out of amo.
labrador writes:
"I wonder how one compares the current situation to the depression and decides if it's better or worse. Is there a single metric somewhere?"
The metric will be all recovery efforts failing for 10 years, endless socialistic BS, then a war pulls everyone out of it.
I see shanty towns often, but it's because I live in Central America. If Central America catches pneumonia when the USA catches cold, I wonder what we do when the USA has double antibiotic resistant pneumonia. I'll keep y'all posted.
Ministry of Truth writes:
Gasoline demand falls despite price slide: Mastercard
Deflation anyone?
@NOVA
"I have mini shanty towns in the woods next to me"
Your Fairfax County neighbors are more than a little curious. Where, exactly?
What happens if US defaults?
Breaking News - INTC to become a bank holding company
Flying Hawaiian,
Could there be other reasons for the failure?
thanks.
"labrador writes:
"I wonder how one compares the current situation to the depression and decides if it's better or worse. Is there a single metric somewhere?"
If during the next presidential campaign, you hear the slogan "One chicken in every pot," then you know it is worse.
you should see how fast the weeds grow on the interstate if you don't maintain it
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin told CNN today that she would be honored to help President-elect Barack Obama in his new administration if asked, even if he did once hang around with an "unrepentant domestic terrorist."
HAhahahahaha!
Also remember the great depression was exasperated by trade tariffs and protectionism. That can't happen this time. Oh!,,, Wait!,,, Obama!
The ten year return on INTC is -43% (not including dividends)
Sad.....
If people really believed this, then gold wouldn't be trading at $720/oz.
Speed | 11.12.08 - 5:16 pm
See? Didja see that?
dat's whad I'm talkin bout, but you people call me crazy. Well if I'm crazy then so are we all. And I ain't got no relief because my large angry wife sez I'm crazy too. How bout dat?!
But, and I knows it be a big butt, sorta like someone else I knows, sumpin ain't right.
US defaulting : Grover Norquist's dream.
The parking lot across the street from me has a reasonable amount of cars in it, and had a lot of cars for the veteran's Day holiday yesterday.
What did the car companies do during GD I to survive?
I sold IBM at 115 and now it's below 80. Temptation. . . Save me from myself guys.
Actually, I see shanty townin Sacramento all the time along the river. Humor aside, I actually mean I haven't seen a large-scale increase in shanties. Not that I keep close track, so I have no doubt that they are increasing. So that we have to take humor in shanties.
...so taking Whitehead's claims at face value, it's time we all thought of the new name for this...thing. Right here, right now on calc-risk, we're going to come up with the next name for this period in history to be used in all the history books for eternity. Um, "Cluster--k to the Poor House" is already taken. "Great Depression, part Deux" is too 90s.
Start your engines...
"What did the car companies do during GD I to survive?"
Made moonshine in their shuttered factories.
Crewman writes:
NASDAQ futures down 59
that is the end of day close 11-12
at 5pm E-MINI down 17 (1146)
Remember, first 150 years of USA prosperity was aided by tariffs and protectionism.
"I sold IBM at 115 and now it's below 80. Temptation. . . Save me from myself guys."
Just place your order with a limit at 40, and check it every day. When it is close to execution, change it to 30.
What happens if US defaults?
PSgirl
I can't say for sure when, but you could bet what is left of my ass
ets that we'd soon know where the bottom was.
That is to say, the MALL parking lot. . .
The Greater Depression
//Start your engines...
Suggestions? | 11.12.08 - 5:21 pm | # //
GD - Return of the dragon.
Thread tunes for thought. This one's for YouTube's 'Man of Truth,' who is one of my favorite internet dudes.
YouTube - Lynyrd Skynyrd - Simple Man
For those interested in some video commentary:
YouTube - manoftruth Channel
Fi
Thrifty fifty
"US Department of Education Announces New Standards
Under its 'No Dpression Left Behind' program the US Department of Education has announced today that it will standardize all definitions of depressions. This will counter the current confusion on whether or not we are in a Great Depression, a Greater Depression, or a Screw the Prozac Give me a Gun Depression."
Start your engines...
Suggestions? | 11.12.08 - 5:21 pm | #
Greater Depression appeals to my American sense of continuity.
But "The Global Sovereign Default of 2009" may turn out to be more accurate.
Maybe you should read about how prosperous the US was prior to 1945.. delusions...
//Remember, first 150 years of USA prosperity was aided by tariffs and protectionism.
barackobush | 11.12.08 - 5:21 pm | # //
labrador thinks it's funny? there's 'humor in shanties'?
man, dat's cold
CR wrote:
"however I think "worse than" is extremely unlikely."
I don't think so - respectfully. THe difference is that the Crash was sudden. This time around, people have had a lot of time to get REALLY scared and to over-react - be they consumers to corporate to countries. You said so yourself, the US might have to raise interest rates in a recession to finance medium to long term treasuries. Wasn't the raising of rates the cause of the depth of the DEpression?
I think we are in a truly perfect storm to realize a very harsh correction. This will manifest itself in the final phase of high inflation and the eventual reduction of the credit status... and this from me who called deflation when others laughed...'sniff'
Cheers
RE: lazy Americans
Americans are the most productive people on the planet - this is fact, not opinion. History is full of examples of people underestimating the US (present administration aside).
If we're going for GDII, the US is going to be the land of milk and honey compared to just about everywhere else.
It's interesting how a lot of the same types of bigshots who were touting the market to the moon when it was overvalued are trashing it now.
That includes a lot of the crew on CNBC. Some of them are turning almost hostile against the market, the economy and the powers-that-be. It makes you wonder...
I can understand why the CEO of GM wants to sound pessimistic all of a sudden.
But who let the dogs out?
"discontinuity in the prosperity we were formerly enjoying"
Intel Lowers Fourth-Quarter Outlook. Stock Halted After-Hours.
Wow, halted after-hours.
Some of them are turning almost hostile against the market, the economy and the powers-that-be. It makes you wonder...
Dylan 'the' Rat... for one.
Charles Kiting writes:
Still, I haven't seen any shanty towns yet.
Then you ain't been to Detroit.
Charles Kiting | 11.12.08 - 5:16 pm
Taken from the Detroit(sic) Free Press:
"The Detroit City Council passed a resolution today calling for a $10-billion bailout for the city of Detroit.
Council President Pro Tem JoAnn Watson sponsored the resolution to use the money for public service employment, to fund mass transit plans and to place a moratorium on home foreclosures for two years."
2 years of home foreclosures sounds like a great idea...
I like Prozac Depression, with kudos to the poster above.
The Great Awakening.
"If people really believed this, then gold wouldn't be trading at $720/oz."
You are absolutely correct. Very few believe or understand, so gold is trading at $720. But, just because very few understand does not mean it will not happen.
The Decade of Reckoning
"Dylan 'the' Rat... for one.
Anonymous
That guy needs to find an identity. Cheerleader one day, little bitch the next...
Hmmm, the Depression Formerly Known As Prosperity. DFKAP.
The Detroit City Council passed a resolution today calling for a $10-billion bailout for the city of Detroit.
I'm assuming the $10-billion dollar bailout is TARP funds. No way Detroit can place $10B in bonds.
I call this The Great Transition.
Broward Horne has a good read, IMO.
Whitehead did live through the great depression.. you know.
Council President Pro Tem JoAnn Watson sponsored the resolution to use the money for public service employment, to fund mass transit plans and to place a moratorium on home foreclosures for two years."
2 years of home foreclosures sounds like a great idea...
yagij | 11.12.08 - 5:26 pm | # [kill][hide comment]
You know, as pissed as I am at people that lived beyond their means, this might be a really good idea.
They need to bring out the big guns.
I thought "great transition" is morgue slang?
I'm with CR on this one.
"I think "worse than" is extremely unlikely."
Of course I have underestimated this thing the whole way down. I knew it was going to be bad, but not this bad.
I completely missed both the CDS implications and the international aspects. My 40% bonds and 40% international, 20% value did not work out as well as I had expected. Of course I far ahead of my peers who call me Mr. Doom and Gloom and Warren Bafoon.
WE can call it Ray, or WE can call it Jay, but it won't be pretty. Dissenters?
Broward Horne has a good read, IMO.
Currently Smoking Cannabis
Where is it?
INTC AH 12.59
AAPL AH 87.83
BOOYAH!
i guess it's not a bailout if it's not at least 10 billion, re detroit
what about cali, those guy's in alabama that go snookered on the sewer bonds, etc, etc
What about 'Reality
I think one of the things most shocking to big business is how easily Americans are willing to start shucking excess consumerism when it's clear that the party is over. This might be part of the cultural shift that many have mentioned here.
Maybe it's "easy come, easy go" for the demand side. However, that shift means complete and utter catastrophe for the supply side, since the plan was to sell more, more and more crap until then end of time.
Look to Hollywood for the name....
Depression 2 : Jason Takes Manhattan
Tha Depression 2 : Back to Da Hood
GD II : Electric Boogaloo
The Next Great Depression
Great Depression 2 : Depressed to the Extreme
My Big Fat Inevitable Depression
In his Chicago victory speech on election night, Obama called this the worst financial crisis in 100 years. I heard it, then read a transcript. That's what he said.
The hub has completely stopped rolling his eyes. As have others who poopooed me. Actually, I would love to be wrong.
Suggestions? writes:
Start your engines...
Suggestions? | 11.12.08 - 5:21 pm
The Warring Currencies Period
"economic infarction"
Volker: I meant that his opinion on what's developing seems right to me. I wasn't referring to a 'read' on his blog.
Of course, I also think Broward posts here under a few other names, and for good reason. But we won't go there.
Liz, I would be delighted to be wrong as well.
Instead, I am starting to get even more alarmed at how bad it could get.
Yeah, we discussed the 100 year thing on a thread days ago.
LL - I can relate. The real estate agents at the open houses no longer tell me the bottom is in and I had better buy now or I will miss out. Instead, they ask my opinion.
rich writes:
It's interesting how a lot of the same types of bigshots who were touting the market to the moon when it was overvalued are trashing it now.
exactly
... and I am surprised anyone is paying attentio
"2 years of home foreclosures sounds like a great idea..."
"You know, as pissed as I am at people that lived beyond their means, this might be a really good idea."
I beg to differ. I would like to buy a house, but not at "stupid" prices. The sooner we get back to 2.5x - 3x income prices, the more pleased I am. Investment banks and credit dependent consumers and businesses be damned.
Depression 2.0
Depression 2: The Empire Fiat Backed
Lawyer Liz - I sold my S&P 500 fund when it was a third higher than it is now. So I'd get 50% more if I bought back in. That's a nice round number. Hmmm, hmmm.
Hi, awgee, I have been neglecting IHB.
I told my developer buddy a year ago to slash his prices, and he was miffed at me. Now, he is thinking of doing it. . too late.
"irrational dejection"
The Blues Came Callin'
hat tip Yousef (can't spell his last name, but is dead now anyway) a poet
Where is Jas Jain to up the ante on Whitehead and forecast this current slump to be "worse than the Black Plague"?
Wait, is this sucka goin' down ?
Start your engines...
Suggestions? | 11.12.08 - 5:21 pm | #
This depression should be named after its auther--Reaganomics--Trickle down on works when people pee.
Whitehead's goal here seems to be classic banksterism: scare the pols away from social spending.
Ironically, his fearmongering may help gut faith in the fictions that sustain our system.
Attaboy! I do love a frightened plutocrat.
Depression 2: Return of the Gold Standard
rich,
Here is my game plan.
I'll put a decent chunk into commodities by the end of this month.
...I'm going to pray everyday.
"This might be part of the cultural shift that many have mentioned here."
I do not think that I would want to be the owner of that Hummer dealership these days. Granted it would be nice to be wealthy enough to own one but methinks they are not so wealthy now.
BTW, It is already named the The Great Despondency.
Great efforts, everyone.
LOL.
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
Volker: I meant that his opinion on what's developing seems right to me.
Well what do you think several others have been saying?
I wasn't referring to a 'read' on his blog.
He has a blog?
Of course, I also think Broward posts here under a few other names, and for good reason.
Even more reason to call the little shit out for a better explanation. If he's spoofing then fuck him.
But we won't go there.
Where we going? I'm in. I got a half a tank of gas and about twenty bucks.
All those squirrel jokes from several months ago just don't seem as funny.
I like the phrase "Storm of Chaos" personally. I think it describes the global financial situation quite well. Although Roubini's(?) "Global Systemic Financial Meltdown" works for me also.
I agree with Mel -- this is Reaganomics, The Coda.
Reagan should be exhumed, arranged on a gilded thrown, dunce cap sat on head, and carted from busted town to busted town with a sign around his bony neck.
"Caveat emptor, ya born-and-bred dopes."
The Purge.
The Unwinding.
Depression 2: Electric Bugaloo
Say Anything 2: Dobbler's Depression
Suggestions:
Catastrophic Currency Crisis
Catastrophic Credit Crisis
"the decline of the rest"
@Speed
"Americans are the most productive people on the planet - this is fact, not opinion. History is full of examples of people underestimating the US (present administration aside).
If we're going for GDII, the US is going to be the land of milk and honey compared to just about everywhere else."
This is true to me. Historically USAians are pretty cool about pulling together and weathering the storm. My opinion is that we above all others are best at individualism in good times and community in bad.
Volker: Sometimes I get the feeling that if this were live, you'd occasionally put me in a head lock and give me a noogy. You should smoke marijuana. Maybe daily.
Wish we weren't going to test that thesis realtime Blackhalo...
C'mon y'all, get with the times:
gr8 AMF Dpresh
The Great Privation.
Teh Big Sh!tstormz?
Right here, right now on calc-risk, we're going to come up with the next name for this period in history to be used in all the history books for eternity. Um, "Cluster--k to the Poor House" is already taken. "Great Depression, part Deux" is too 90s.
DepressionGate
I like that movie theme:
Naked Depression 2 and 1/2 -- The Smell of Fear.
Currently Smoking Cannabis: what makes you think I don't? noogies, not so much
but nuclear wedgies! alright!
I like the Great Credit Clusterf*ck...
Movie theme??? TARP: The Clone Wars.
i agree its true, but its not like these guys to say it..
Methinks they are now short the market.
I like The Global Unwind much better than The Blues Come Calli
"enron and the lesson not learned"
Too Big and Failed.
HEY!
I got it: Jubilee
simple, compressed and it will be the final outcome
GS shorted the CA bonds they helped sell. I wouldn't at all be surprised if GS is shorting the shit out of everything -
The Grand Colostomy
The Enema of the Age
The Bling Bang
Unfortunatley, the worse it gets, the milder the name might end up being, just too big to capture. We may end up with something like "The Times." "The Troubles" is already taken, but it would suffice.
Inflation, Inflation, Inflation... there is a fire and people are running to the wrong exit by purchasing US Bonds..
Duck Tales taught us this a long time ago!
Nothing found for 2008 11 Duck-tales-inflation-lesson
Econoclypse Now
"catbird seat collapse"
"//Remember, first 150 years of USA prosperity was aided by tariffs and protectionism.
barackobush"
What? Perhaps I'm a little out of the loop, but my Econ 101 led me to believe that tariffs and protectionism rarely lead to prosperity.
The new thread already has 50 comments in it
The Faketrix
We do not have a bottom until Hank Paulson says it will be worse than the Great Depression.
"abandon all hope, ye who remain on this thread"
In the very long run, in the children's textbooks of the "New World Order", they could find a way to portray this time positively, much as, let's say, the Soviets glorified 1917. Who will be writing the textbooks?
Academic Question Time:
I remember reading about the problems regarding "feral cities" when people were reviewing military actions. However, if GDII does come home to roost, what will it do to the indigenous poor populations of our large(r) cities? With our welfare/social safety net has been in place for so long, how will this population centers respond to problems that affected the urban GD crowd?
What do you do with them?
The Great Depression 2 : HEY EVERYBODY THERE'S FOOTBALL ON THE TEEVEE !
GD II : Back To China
Depression 2 : Manic Depression
Tyler Perry's Great Depression
How about Bernanke's Blunder & Plunder
"I sold IBM at 115 and now it's below 80. Temptation. . . Save me from myself guys."
There is something not quite right going on at IBM. I'd wait for at least one more shoe to drop.
Don't get me wrong, IBM is best of breed, they know what they are doing, and they are as far as you can get from investment banks and big 3 dealerships.
But no one is getting out of this without more pain that that.
Planet of the Apes.
The Great Global Diarrhea of the Mouth
Just catching up. All I can say is if it really is 'worse than the depression' guys like Whitehead are what's for dinner. He might dislike the deficits but he'll positively hate the Gulag.
@PSgirl
"How about Bernanke's Blunder & Plunder"
Weekend at Bernie's II?
Horrendous Economy Kablooie
Just another Y2K issue. Processors cannot handle negative growth over extended periods and will need to be redesigned and replaced before the onset of depression. The new Intel GD2 is the answer.
There is something not quite right going on at IBM. I'd wait for at least one more shoe to drop.
What could go wrong - they shed all their low margin mfg and are now a high margin 'service provider'... services are always strong in nasty recessions, right?
Not the Great Depression 2... but
"How Prozac Sales Came To Exceed Those of Wal Mart"
Scarlett.
Depression! The Musical
1:30 in. Heroic.
Video - CNBC.com
How 'bout: "The Great Deception"
Now that Goldman and the banks have plundered $250 billion from TARP, we will see more and more statements like Whitehead's, i.e., we need to lower the standard of living of the workforce -- slash social security, raise taxes, reduce the size of infrastructure programs, no universal health care, etc. -- in order to preserve the system. The reality is that the big banks are insolvent, and the financial system with its quadrillion in derivatives simply cannot be bailed out -- it needs to be reorganized through bankruptcy proceedings and the derivative bubble debt wiped out.
The Bank Job 2. They lost your money, now they want it BACK -- with INTEREST.
@SamWaxel
"We do not have a bottom until Hank Paulson says it will be worse than the Great Depression."
I sure hope he is "out of the loop," well before then... Unless you think the bottom will be in before Jan 20. Ideally, he would be making that call from a Fed Pen.
I can not see all of the bad mortgages, CDS, Big 3 autos nor labor union issues unwinding before then.
I still like my Starbux themed name, "The Grande Depression"
When all of the people who couldn't see this downturn coming turn incredibly bearish, is it time to think about being less bearish? In other words, are they wrong again?
dryfly- "All I can say is if it really is 'worse than the depression' guys like Whitehead are what's for dinner."
I'd like to be able to agree with you, but I can't. They'll be safe, so long as the supply of parts and fuel for their Gulfstreams hold out.
@observer
"the financial system with its quadrillion in derivatives simply cannot be bailed out -- it needs to be reorganized through bankruptcy proceedings and the derivative bubble debt wiped out."
Yeah, some of that...
Paulson will become much more interesting when he is no longer Treasury Secretary..will Matt Lauer get that interview too?...
Next Treasury Secretary? Who are the Wild Cards? Everyone knows Summers and Geithner
"the financial system with its quadrillion in derivatives simply cannot be bailed out -- it needs to be reorganized through bankruptcy proceedings and the derivative bubble debt wiped out."
Yeah, some of that...
Blackhalo
Welcome to Team Jubilee
GS: Yes, we short ourselves too. Genius, I tell ya.
@mp
"I'd like to be able to agree with you, but I can't. They'll be safe, so long as the supply of parts and fuel for their Gulfstreams hold out."
They would have to land for fuel and food sometime. If this REALLY ends up as a GDII, the world is now a MUCH smaller place.
re: GS: Yes, we short ourselves too. Genius, I tell ya.
Whatever happens, this shit needs to be illegal. Unbelievable.
Weak End With Bernie
James Bond: Tomorrow is Already Dead
How about--The Greenspan?
"There is a major cultural belief shift in progress. Big, really big. Bigger than anything we've seen before."
And therefore, if so, even more significant than the economic news.
Debt Becomes Us
I'll do my Rick Santelli impression.
(Holding up twp pieces of paper now)
Great
Sodomy
labrador writes:
"I wonder how one compares the current situation to the depression and decides if it's better or worse. Is there a single metric somewhere?"
Maybe it's that love thing, you'll know it when you see it.
"I wouldn't at all be surprised if GS is shorting the shit out of everything -"
I know I am shorting the shit out of GS. Barring a Bush coup, Paulson is not going to be around forever.
In "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" there was a planet that made other, custom-made planets for affluent customers. During the inevitable business cycle slowdowns, the entire planet shut down until the next business cycle upturn. The 'night watchman' during the shutdown involved an automated missile defense system. It sounds like we need a crash program in suspended animation!
If it's slow, it should be called
The Great Desensitization
and be blogged about on
CalculatedBRISS
The Reality-Based Depression
The Money Pit 2
My nomination for the coming depression...
The End.
BTW, I think the gentleman from Goldman had a very valid point - the "borrow and spend" Keynesian solution that got us out of the Great Depression (by way of WW2) is unlikely to work when the national debts (all debts counted) is so large.
There will have to be either debt forgiveness, a massive devaluation, or something even more catastrophic.
"If we're going for GDII, the US is going to be the land of milk and honey compared to just about everywhere else."
"My opinion is that we above all others are best at individualism in good times and community in bad."
ROFLMAO! The second coming of Iclodious.
I'm voting for either GDII - the "II" convention is accepted by 20th century historians - or the "[x] Years Depression", the way they name European wars from the late Middle Ages and Renaissance.
As for the world becoming smaller in GDII, that's debatable. The world may get smaller in a crisis, but it would get bigger in a cataclysm, since communications and transportation infrastructure would fail.
There's a cheery note!
Weeds growing on the interstate?
It sounds like an image from Canticle for Leibowitz.
What do you bet we are limit down tomorrow morning?
"During the inevitable business cycle slowdowns, the entire planet shut down until the next business cycle upturn. "
How could there be an upturn if the planet shut down?
"What do you bet we are limit down tomorrow morning?
PSgirl"
Depends. Can you send me a picture?
CR,
Didn't you call a bottom at S&P 1000? Just post the news, leave the comments for haloscan.
"Night of The Longpigs"
Pavel Chichikov writes:
"During the inevitable business cycle slowdowns, the entire planet shut down until the next business cycle upturn. "
How could there be an upturn if the planet shut down?
It was an intergalactic upturn. A planet just can't decouple from the interstellar economy, you know.
No debt left unrepudiated.
The market misses its PPT fix. When the existence of ppt gets known, there should be civil lawsuits to bankrupt all those in the know.
The Con of Me
That's how I think of it.
Liz,
After the INTC news IBM might be worth looking at after the AM decline... at least as an entry point.
After all even Roubini believes the dow is going to bottom in the 6-7000 range. If he is right buy chunks all the way to the bottom. If he is wrong (on the plus side) 8K is probably a good start.
Limit down on what???
"It was an intergalactic upturn. A planet just can't decouple from the interstellar economy, you know. ;)"
I know that. I just wanted to see what you would say. : )
For some time I've been looking for a place to archive my poems. I'm getting old and there are many of them. A small New England college has expressed interest, and the provost wants to meet me some time after the new year. As of now, anyway.
I've been thinking about an archive for a while, in the event that 'darkness falls.
Going for the new AR-15 with all the goodies (night vision) and a few thousand rounds......for hunting of course.
Futures are holding pretty strong considering INTC.
FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (3.28)
1165.38 1146.25 -17.25 1166.78 1146.25 -20.53
Mouse, you in here?
@squeezed writes:
"ROFLMAO! The second coming of Iclodious."
I do not grasp your reference. Can you elaborate?
Comrade Wisdom Seeker writes:
"There will have to be either debt forgiveness, a massive devaluation, or something even more catastrophic."
Our new black swan gold coin with 'Millions for Defense, Not One Cent for Debt Tribute', will start the war.
All you socialists go to hell. Every last one of you. You're all socialists looking for a hand out. You hate sarah palin because she speaks the truth and look what you rotten people did to her.
@NOT Irving Fisher!
"Futures are holding pretty strong considering INTC."
Jumping jimminy, I missed that.
Intel Corporation
(Public, NASDAQ:INTC) 13.52
After Hours: 12.60 -0.92 (-6.80%) - Nov 12, 6:09PM EST
Is Barcelona starting to have an affect or is it just the downturn?
I think Sperm Shack is dk reincarnated
@Sperm Shack
You are too consistent and outrageous to be anything but satire. You should mix it up with a straight line now and then to really make it work, I think.
labrador writes:
I wonder how one compares the current situation to the depression and decides if it's better or worse. Is there a single metric somewhere?
sphinctogram?
"starve a troll today!"
You guys, you guys... I work in Hollywood.
It's a tried and true rule that a sequels are always worse than the originals.
Depression 2: Electric Boogaloo!
I'm just fed up with you damn liberals. You're all looking for a goddamn handout all the time.
And on a completely different note,
Sing along to this song I wrote!
YouTube - Bye Bye W
"It's a tried and true rule that a sequels are always worse than the originals."
What about Aliens, The Empire Strikes Back or Superman II.
Maybe shack needs some alone time.
Suggestions? writes:
...so taking Whitehead's claims at face value
The Big Squeeze
The Great Conflation
The Great Conflagration
In Conflante Delicto
Conflation because we were CONned and because there's some flatulence of some sort on a daily basis. So perhaps:
The Great Conflatulence
Barack Obama wants to raise your taxes, take your guns away and unleash gays in public schools.
Sperm Shack writes:
Sperm, baby, go find yourself an ovum.
Shack wants another drinky.
CR... Can we get rid of Shack?
Unfortunately, I think he's right. I see nothing in the current political response to the economic correction which suggests any restraint in government spending whatsoever, and at some point the people with actual industry left who are lending the US money are going to come to the realization that we're never going to be able to repay any of it, since we have very little industry left (and we'll be in the process of taxing the remaining businesses into oblivion). At that point nations dump US treasuries and the currency collapses, and the "unthinkable" happens.
Maybe when the world rises from the ashes in twenty years or so, it will be a better place. I just wish I had a fast-forward button, so I didn't have to experience the inevitable collapse in between.
Obama wants another stimulus program, where does the money come from, the Treasury?
Yes, a Treasury auction, more debt, just what we need now, more instead of less debt.
For Nick & Others...
I personally have no desire to hammer, screw, polish, paint, or sew anything.
US Manufacturing of simple goods has been on life support for a long time. Get over it. We can live with out it.
@Nick
Nick writes:
Unfortunately, I think he's right. I see nothing in the current political response to the economic correction which suggests any restraint in government spending whatsoever, and at some point the people with actual industry left who are lending the US money are going to come to the realization that we're never going to be able to repay any of it, since we have very little industry left (and we'll be in the process of taxing the remaining businesses into oblivion). At that point nations dump US treasuries and the currency collapses, and the "unthinkable" happens.Unfortunately, I think he's right. I see nothing in the current political response to the economic correction which suggests any restraint in government spending whatsoever, and at some point the people with actual industry left who are lending the US money are going to come to the realization that we're never going to be able to repay any of it, since we have very little industry left (and we'll be in the process of taxing the remaining businesses into oblivion). At that point nations dump US treasuries and the currency collapses, and the "unthinkable" happens.
I am less concerned about government borrowing than spending. I am cool with the Gov spending on justified things as long as they pay for it via taxes or inflation. The rest of your post is VERY thinkable and I think, GOING to happen. If China and Japan dump treasuries, it just means rates go up enough to attract buyers willing to price in or insure the risk.
Here is our future: Double digit inflation and double digit interest rates until inflation averted.
"The 70s show."
Event Horizon: The De-Leveraging
The Great Ishtar.
See? Nick understands. The rest of you socialist loving welfare cases who hate anything American know nothing.
"Yes, a Treasury auction, more debt, just what we need now, more instead of less debt."
There was a time not too long ago when the dollar was not printed by the Fed but by the treasury. The dems Obamma and the new T-Sec COULD just print up 10 Trillion dollar bills slap a "legal tender for all debts foreign and domestic" on it, and pay off the debt. Inflation would be a bitch, but it COULD happen.
The name for the next depression?
Rome, Part II.
Or the Mayans just called it the "End of the World".
"On the winter solstice in 2012, the sun will be aligned with the center of the Milky Way for the first time in about 26,000 years."
That might be some bad ju-ju . . . .
Calamity Shack II.
Two reasons occur to not take Mr. Whitehead, 86 y.o., seriously.
(1) Mind slipping -- I just read the Reuters article at
Whitehead sees slump worse than Depression
| Reuters
Mind slipping totally rejected.
(2) Shooting his mouth off -- I looked at his Wiki 'resume'; if he ever did this, he surely stopped many 'big jobs' ago.
I take him seriously seriously.
Shanty-towns? Who needs shanty-towns when we already have Detroit?
Why should I listen to ANYONE from Goldman Sachs?
Based on how this Goldman Sachs Bailout has been handled, I have no reason to believe that anything that comes out of the mouth of a Goldman Sachs exec - or any exec from the financial sector - has any purpose other than to further line their own pockets.
As long as they keep selling Edsels I'm not worried.