Trade Deficit Declines to $56.5 Billion in September
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 11/13/2008 - 6:03am (163 comments)
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Recent Recommendations
Hoopajoop!
The export boom was nice while it lasted - all 6 months of it.
Sloppy thirds
Excellent CR.
You see... there is your silver lining, +800 in the stock market on this "great news"
invest in private security companies & devices.
Nice opening graphs and info. Thursday on CR - Let's get ready to kick it!
I'm thinking we sky it on the kickoff.
I just woke up. When did futures turn positive? On what news?
Whom do we bailout today kids?
Booooyahahahaha
build bridges not bunkers
Gavshire,
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50. Stock futures improve with just minutes remaining before the session's opening bell. The change in tone comes despite downbeat jobless claims data and a dour outlook from a couple of economic bellwethers.
source: Briefing.com: Stock Market Update
I woke up shocked that once again Hank Paulson was not forced to resign.
My takeaway:
Reduce oil price, consumption does not decrease
My prediction:
Low gasoline price stuns market later when demand increased
Comrade Gavshire Hathaway writes:
I just woke up. When did futures turn positive? On what news?
General herd sentiment, I think.
Comrade Gavshire Hathaway writes:
I just woke up. When did futures turn positive? On what news?
Jobs report, Foreclosure report, all of these are indicating a bottom because things can't possibly get worse than this.
Anonymous writes: ....because things can't possibly get worse than this
Wanna bet ?
General herd sentiment, I think.
That would be my guess, plus all the chartists who believe we'll once again bounce 15% off this low.
Sears is bringing back lay-away at K-Mart.
More evidence of supplies extending less credit?
Popeye, I'll take that bet... about 5 years from today
10-Year Bond \t3.76% \t \t +0.09 \t +2.56%
GH,
Me too...It was way red last night when I got home from dinner.
Oh well. This market has been as rational as a drunken badger for months. We'll see.
Nostrovia,
Slightly good news...it's been too many years since the trade deficit has been positive. It needs to be positive again.
Well, looks like the "we'll just export out of it" cheer was short-lived.
Look, when the Mexicans are complaining that manufacturing jobs that have left their country for Vietnam, why would anyone think there'll be an export-led turnaround in the U.S.
We've shopped our way to lower prosperity by importing cheap labor. The equlibrium proposition only works for 3rd world countries - not developed nations.
dd
Quick survey?
Are you planning on spending this holiday season vs. last year.......
A) More
B) about the same
C) Less
d) Nothing
E) I don't do gifts
Many of my friends and associates are all saying a lot less. (B)
Eric writes:
[herd sentiment]
That would be my guess
Yeah, don't expect it to last but I think there's a fair chance we finish a couple hundred points higher today.
Thanks everyone! Thought I missed some bailout news or something.
I have to hand it to the knife catchers. Its amazing that anybody could be buying anything with the news thats coming out today. Is today the day they rush into the elevator and find an empty shaft?
OT: EHP and VV -
our prank yesterday got 488 national and international media stories as of today, weee!
Google News
site is very slow due to volume -
* PDF: The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia
* Ongoing video releases: The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia
I love how GM is still in the Dow. I wonder if it will be able to fall further when it is bumped from the index
Comrade Baron Von Helmut III,
"Quick survey?
Are you planning on spending this holiday season vs. last year.......
A) More
B) about the same
C) Less
d) Nothing
E) I don't do gifts
Many of my friends and associates are all saying a lot less. (B)"
It's your survey and all, but (B) is a bout the same, if the coffee's hit my brain yet, and there is no "a lot less".
But if (B) is a lot less then I'll ding that.
Nostrovia,
sAG,
watching now...
@Comrade Baron Von Helmut III
About the same. ( less for adults, but more kids ). But this is after years of cutting back on presents all around.
I love how GM is still in the Dow. I wonder if it will be able to fall further when it is bumped from the index
GM will become like FNM and FRE.... basically perpetual options.
CGH
"Is today the day they rush into the elevator and find an empty shaft?"
ROFL,
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
Gav:
Is today the day they rush into the elevator and find an empty shaft?
They might but I get the feeling that there might be enough knife catchers and enough people cashing out shorts to provide a short pop.
This is really getting depressing. Not a single bright spot on the horizon. Everything is just fucked... Next on the agenda of shitty news.. Sovereign defaults. Who goes first?
BVH III,
Somewhere between (C) and (D). We're doing secret santa with two qualifiers: less than $20 and only from a bargain bin.
Two years ago, we went for a splurge gift (limit $150).
Last year, the wife and I were traveling around the world on an 8 month sabbatical so we missed Christmas. You haven't lived until you've spent Christmas Eve at a restaurant on Koh Phi Phi with a Thai waiter dressed in a full Santa outfit. Priceless!
Comrade Baron Von Helmut III,
Some of the above, but not all.
dd
why would anyone think there'll be an export-led turnaround in the U.S.
If we put as much energy into product engineering as we have into financial engineering, it would happen.
Ponyless in NJ,
"Next on the agenda of shitty news.. Sovereign defaults. Who goes first?"
Iceland already did.
Nostrovia,
serf Alan Greenspend writes:
our prank yesterday
Suitable for the Onion and well done!
You getting sued?
or arrested? i hope not.
My bad..yes I meant (C). Most folks are too worried about losing their jobs, paying their bills, rather than buying the latest techno gizmo or a flat screen or an IPOD.
Just once I'd like these snake oil salesman touting stocks have some real valid data supporting their tout rather than more snake oil. Oops I forgot, they can't. Fraud continues. Why aren't these people in jail.
VV, thanks! there are some tough lawyers on the team, lawsuits come with the frontline battles.
folks are selling copies of the paper on ebay, wild.
In six months, the upsurge in oil will see this trend reverse. The non-oil portion trend will continue, though.
BVH III,
(b) for the kids (gotta keep the dream alive - although they've been told the economy is tough - so their expectations aren't high - kind of what the government is doing - so they'll be happy with about the same - which will now seem like more)
(c) for the family
(d) for myself and my wife.
Why this walk is so random today?
Is Mark Haines going to channel Annie again today?
And so ends the morning pump job and first round of short covering and knife catching. 20 minute pop. Heh.
serf Alan Greenspend,
You'll be fine -- well within satire protections.
1.2mn papers printed and distributed. A mammoth undertaking in terms of cost and organizing. Congratulations, I hope to see local news stations pick it up around the globe
I wonder if the fake NY times markedly impacted the real NY Times' distribution negatively the day of, and positively thereafter
Misean, Iceland has not. It does appear to be a good candidate to be first.
BAC below 17...yikes
serf: I have a Chinese lawyer, named Fuk Yusume.
He does some First Amendment stuff.
hoopajoops
1.2mn papers printed and distributed. A mammoth undertaking in terms of cost and organizing. Congratulations, I hope to see local news stations pick it up around the globe
It's been done before, search for "Not the New York Times".
I remember the headline "Pope dies... Cardinals return from airport". It was put out during the summer of the John Paul I/John Paul II elections. I believe the real papers were on strike at that point.
EHP- funny, never thought about denting their daily profits, yay.
my teamate and i were passing them out in front of the NYTimes building for a bit, that was a hoot. we had black vendor aprons with NYTimes Special Edition printed on them.
Eric,
Why do you have to be such a downer man, I'm trying to complement sAG for some hard work done
Why do you have to be such a downer man, I'm trying to complement sAG for some hard work done
Sorry..... wasn't meant to be a downer, I think it is (and was) a great gag.
this 850 defence is so annoying
Regulators nix credit card debt forgiveness plan
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Eric, no worries! the intent of the prank was that of hope, what a wonderful planet we could have with intelligent choices. that was the underlying viral meme. the paper and media exposure was the agent of transfer.
serf AG: Really you?! That was awesome. Who knew that one of the locals here was so inspired.
I don't suppose there's a pdf for us NYC exiles in DC is there?
Okay, time for AIG's Toes to issue the latest from the front lines.
and back on topic, our trading partners have some debt issues-
Debt Pile Looming Over European Firms
According to the report, European companies will be forced to pay back or refinance $586.3 billion through 2011, with more than 40% of that debt coming due over the next year.
immobilienblasen: Debt Pile Looming Over European Firms
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"The agency "does not consider any plan that defers the timely recognition of loss as prudent, and any such proposal cannot be viewed favorably by us," Timothy Long, senior deputy comptroller for bank supervision policy, said in a letter to the two groups dated Monday and made public Wednesday."
Priceless, tell that to the FED and SEC!
hey serf AG,
Your prank got an NPR mention this AM if no mentioned it yet - awesome!
"this 850 defence is so annoying"
And probably doomed.
JP, just a cog in the wheel, there is a pdf link in the post above.
Bottom!
(Where's out resident spammer?)
LOL. Missed the links the first time (I read the morning from the bottom up.)
Even more hilarious that the NYT posts a news article about the fake NYT. I hope they give you guys a cut of the increased circulation.
Whoops. Didn't notice it's not the NYT. I'm in need of more coffee.
USD/YEN doing that thing again... how long before BOJ announces something?
The deficit ex-petroleum may be mostly China now, but given the overvalued dollar, a dramatic widening of the ex-petroleum deficit with the rest of the world looks inevitable.
G20 hype rally ?
Bernanke Refusal to Buy Genworth Commercial Paper Burdens Banks
Bernanke Refusal to Buy Genworth Paper Burdens Banks (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's decision to deny commercial paper financing to all but the highest-rated borrowers is forcing some companies to seek the credit of last resort, backstop loans.
Whirlpool Corp., American Electric Power Co. and AGL Resources Inc. chose to tap emergency bank lines negotiated before the credit crisis began rather than pay twice as much on commercial paper. The defections helped shrink sales of the IOUs in the past two weeks to the lowest in more than two years.
You've got all these people taking loans that don't want loans. They want CP,'' said Christopher Low, New York-based chief economist at FTN Financial, a unit of Tennessee's largest bank.All of these programs have had unintended consequences elsewhere. Every time the government elevates one class of debt it displaces another.''
Hedge fund hearing has started
PSgirl writes:
Hedge fund hearing has started
I vote guilty.
Off with your head!
Oooh ... that last sentence works great for Mad Libs!
"Every time the government _______s a ________, it actually ________s ________."
Either Mad Libs, or the old Match Game. Where's Gene Rayburn when we need him?
Serf, I love it. How do I join the Yes Men? I been one for the past 8 years, de facto.
Market to rally on news that 5 top hedge fund managers are locked up in testimony today -- I don't see them on any kind of mobile device. If they can't liquidate their holdings for the next few hours, the market won't go down ^_^
I hate that hedge fund liquidation meme that is always news, but never a report. More likely that a liquidation would be a short covering rally
Hmmm.... wonder who is going to look smarter... people running hedge funds or Congress...
Dow chart looks like the beginning of most roller coasters this morning. Steep climb followed by a heart dropping decent. Then a little bump to give you that zero gravity feeling. I want to get off.
According to Bloomberg 4 of the 5 hedge fund managers made money by betting against "subprime" paper. Strong repudiation for "whocoulddanode"?
Well, I'll give the rally monkeys points for trying.
clackety clackety clackety clack clack clack..............
CIT Group applies to become a bank holding company
Serf AG: Sorry I missed you guys. I got to Vanderbilt at 11:05. A security guard said something had gone on involving the NYT.
Next time...
REBear writes:
CIT Group applies to become a bank holding company
What's the effort involved in creating a bank holding company
Don't laugh.. there is a 5 page on line form I saw as an application.
REBear,
I dunno. But remember today is the last day to apply for money from the program formerly known as TARP. Unless you are a private bank...
MB - well, you can definitely sign up for alerts -
The Yes Men
but ideally creating your own prank with a trusted team is your best bet. secrecy and legality should be strictly adhered to.
Not sure if this has been posted or not:
""It blows my mind how fast this has happened. We had thought commercial real estate would be OK because it wasn't overbuilt," said Robert Bach, chief economist at Grubb and Ellis Co., at the company's 2009 Real Estate Forecast panel in New York on Wednesday."
What is a sane economy, anyway? Seriously, is it exploiting every last ounce of natural resources and converting it to poison so our children, grand children and great grand children can wallow in a wasteland?
Elvis writes:
Not sure if this has been posted or not:
""It blows my mind how fast this has happened. We had thought commercial real estate would be OK because it wasn't overbuilt,"
WHOCOODANODE!
If this continues to the 600 area, jqp, having already lost half their house value, consumer spending contraction will be even more spectacular than I would have guessed. Frozen. So what if we bounce for a bit. Nothing has changed
but ideally creating your own prank with a trusted team is your best bet.
Well, that's not going to happen. I don't trust anyone. I guess I'll continue to be a one man show. Thanks anyway.
The Biggest Hedge Funds are the Banks.
I posted last night!
The Biggest Hedge Fund is the USA.
Satire is perfectly legal, and since you didn't sell the papers, damages would be negligible anyway. Can't imagine a New York jury finding in favor of the NYT, and I don't think they want to risk an unpopular suit.
The Biggest Hedge Funds WERE Banks.
Murdoch is setting his sights on The Times. It's just a matter of time.
Not that logic has anything to do with it, but - it seems to make sense that auto makers will be bailed out = a plus for the mkt. It makes sense that G20 will come up with at least some positive spin. That prospect may be enough to induce some short covering.
Jus a theory.
Anonymous writes:
The Biggest Hedge Funds ARE Bank.
As in Central Bank, and it's registered subsidiaries
Satire is perfectly legal
For now. China no like satire.
woo, look at that equities rally. The girls on CNBC with ticker symbols written in their cleavage must be really cooing now.
The girls on CNBC with ticker symbols written in their cleavage must be really cooing now.
Breast that will never know the glory of a real master.
News Flash!!!
Henry Paulson bans satire, and bald guy jokes.
Xmas this year is a bit from Santa for the kids but minimal from Mom and Dad.
Big gift is the refinished basement, paid cash.
Also puts money in local pockets.
They're not real breasts so it's okay.
The rally is due to shorts profit taking, particularly the double shorts. If you look at their charts you notice that when they get high enough, there is selling pressure (and I bet some people probably start shorting them). Do you really want to lock in your profits or hold your doubleshort while it undergoes some decay?
Just my theory on how things have gone...
and this is why I'm out of the stock market for now
They're frigid, anyway.
About TARP:
Maybe treasury will give out free money to everyone who applied to shore up 'confidence'.
Mien Gott! Did Maria get dressed on the set of "The Sound of Music" this morning?
Ok, "meme" is fast becoming the next "paradigm shift" or "you go girl".
Serf AG:
you familiar with Alan Abelson?
(Or are you really Alan Abelson?)
Guy did a classic film in early '60s with spoof showing the spaghetti harvest with noodles being picked off of trees...people bought it.
Very sweet deal...
MAN, you guys must have those new fangled 1080dp TV's to be able to read those stock symbols!
Google finance seems to be missing all AMEX data this morning. SKF, TBT, SDS, ... none are showing data from today.
I really do hope my brokerage successfully transferred inheritance stock into my account yesterday. Will find out in about an hour... those bastards...
Andrew Lo going off. You go, boy.
Morocco Bama writes:
They're frigid, anyway.
Do you speak from experience?
SDS is fluctuating around 102.60 I don't follow the others
Do you speak from experience?
Yes.
Great point Jos. Bankman Stanf. Law Prof.
Hedge fund managers' billions taxed at lower capital gains rate; doctors, scientists, engineers stuck with ordinary income.
"spaghetti harvest with noodles being picked off of trees...people bought it."
ha! sounds like the work of the flying spaghetti monster, his name be praised.
Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster
Most futures on assets classes up slightly. JY down a bit. Looks like a pause day.
Oh, HomeDad, I don't imagine many bought it, but it is a pitch-perfect spoof of that Mr. Wizard era.
YouTube -
Caroline Baloney. Hedge fund selling affecting marketplace.
Lock-ups slow selling, moron.
serf AG-
hey man, i applaud you.
seriously.
very very impressive and inspiring.
always dug the culture jamming idea.
OK. Can someone tell me why YouTube links, though perfectly copied from address line, don't work for me?
Yesterday someone called the movement in the market a double half batman or something... I got a kick out of it....
I'm calling for a dampening oscillating curve with a crescendo 2/3s the way thru....
the double half batman was way funnier....
kudos to serf AG and his friends.....that takes balls to do.
Good for you!!
Ciao
MS
burnside when urls are long haloscan seems to truncate them so you can copy and past them. (i dont know if this is actually whats happening) I would just suggest right click and open it in a new window (tab).
You can copy and paste the url then if thats what you're looking for...
Alan,
Great job on the paper and congrats on the media picking it up...
Keep up the good fight...
How about triumph for some morning rock bloggin...
fight the good fight...
YouTube -
lyrics-kind of compelling in today's world
The days grow shorter and the nights are getting long
Feels like we're running out of time
Every day it seems much harder tellin' right from wrong
You got to read between the lines
Don't get discouraged, don't be afraid, we can
Make it through another day
Make it worth the price we pay
The Good Book says it's better to give than to receive
I do my best to do my part
Nothin' in my pockets I got nothin' up my sleeve
I keep my magic in my heart
Keep up your spirit, keep up your faith, baby
I am counting on you
You know what you've got to do
CHORUS:
Fight the good fight every moment
Every minute every day
Fight the good fight every moment
It's your only way
All your life you've been waiting for your chance
Where you'll fit into the plan
But you're the master of your own destiny
So give and take the best that you can
You think a little more money will buy your soul some rest
You'd better think of something else instead
You're so afraid of being honest with yourself
You'd better take a look inside your head
Nothing is easy, nothing good is free
But I can tell you where to start
Take a look inside your heart
There's an answer in your heart
I'm calling for a dampening oscillating curve with a crescendo 2/3s the way thru....
Sounds like Voodoo Chile, slight return.
Did someone hit the play button?
Down Goes Frazier!
Did somebody get a peek at the energy data?
When's this sucker goin' down ?
I like Elijah Cummings more each time.
Sovereign defaults. Who goes first?
Ponyless in NJ | 11.13.08 - 9:47 am | #
By next year we'll be seeing states going BK--CA, to big to fail--MS might be first.
Oh, I'm in trouble on that one...
serf AG,
Got a really good laugh when the woman on CNN held up the fake paper.
She was not pleased with your efforts, but I knew right away it was what your group had done. (The NY sites to participate did it.)
Thanks for the headsup here on CR. You said something was coming and it certainly arrived.
Haven't seen anyone doing anything like that in many years. We need more actions like that to offset the doom and gloom all around us.
I see today is an extreme closeup of Bart Simpson's hair.
Michigan would be the leading candidate for receivership were they not a darling of the incoming administration.
Stupid question time:
To buy short, don't you have to have someone willing to sell the instrument?
How are there still business models stupid enough to bet against shorts in the current market environment?
At what point do the shorts become prohibitively expensive to compensate for the very real risk?
A link to an authoritative explanation would be sufficient?
I'm a newbee and trying to learn while I still have very little skin in the game.
EC (D,MD)
"Joe the plumber taxed higher than Joe the hedge fund manager"
Byzantine_Ruins,
It's clearly a baby jumper formatio
yogi I had to look that up!
...........................
We need more actions like that to offset the doom and gloom all around us.
sportsfan
Here here! Good stuff serf AG....
........
Ponyless in NJ writes:
... Sovereign defaults. Who goes first?
My country of Spotsylvania needs a lot of economic aid. A lot.
Seriously, Pakistan is being held together with duct tape and nukes.
Nuk-yu-lar default anyone?
Lights go down in the Citi
Hey Jp bloggin us with some Journey overtones this morning
I've made 10 times more in capital gains (granted, mostly short term) than I made in income at my day job last year, which I've switched to part-time.
But I will remain committed to equalizing the rates.
GS-64
C=9
GE=15
WFC=27
We might need a new oracle. Delphi?
Put your $ where your mouth is, fellow calculated risk takers.
market looks like it will end green today...Follow europe close...
so far the discerning investors seem to find bargains below 8300 and start puking at 8400
Fake NYT is going for $50 + on eBay.
OnTheRun writes:
GS=64
We might need a new oracle.
What's $3 billion in 7 weeks? Pocket change.
Andrew Lo is quite smart.
ew thread
EURGBP is a screaming short here...
*Exports fell more percent-wise than imports fell.
*If Oil price hadn't collapsed as drastically, imports would have fallen even less. Stronger dollar yes, but not by a lot.
Conclusion: The rest of the world is shrinking faster than we are.