Translation: nothing is moving unless its at least 35% off its 2005 price peak.
On an other, anecdotal note, I had told my landlord a few months ago I was planning to buy a house this year and that I'd be out by April. He was over to winterize our place last year and mentioned, by the way, that I am a wonderful tenant and there's no rush on our move. Interesting..
"The most recent Pending Home Sales report from the NAR indicated a decline in pending sales in September, but this survey suggests pending sales fell off a cliff in October."
This entire economy has become a Wile E. Coyote moment. It better knock it off before it hurts itself.
Anyone know where one can find the transcript or archived video of the hedge fund testimony? It is being missed by C-SPAN/CNBC for the most part and I would like to catch it later
OT: Our SEC reprting mgr just got off a con call with our Euro CFO. She asked me what was going on in Iceland that was material to our Euro ops. Euro CFO mentioned Iceland situation several times and she was too ebarrassed to ask on the call. This is a really sharp lady too. This shows me there are still a lot of people who are mostly oblivious to the severity of our situation. They know the economy isn't good but thats as far as it goes.
I realize some people don't respect NAR's opinion on things. So be it. But I don't think there is anyone who could question the great advice of NAREIT.
REITs, however, continue to offer a strong value opportunity for long-term investors. Consider the following points:
Some real estate industry analysts are pointing to the likelihood of a 20 percent drop in direct commercial real estate values from the 2007 peak.
Yet, REIT stocks currently are down approximately 47 percent from their peak in February 2007.
REITs led the private commercial property market on the way into this down-cycle as they traditionally have done and they now are trading at a deep discount to the level the direct property market is projected to reach.
Because REITs also traditionally have led the private commercial property market in recoveries, REITs today are an exceptional value opportunity.
again, I have to reiterate that I'm getting really tired of that old man standing on the bridge, banging his cane, and screaming something about "you shall not pass" (850) ... push him off already!
"again, I have to reiterate that I'm getting really tired of that old man standing on the bridge, banging his cane, and screaming something about "you shall not pass" (850) ... push him off already!"
Patience, my comrade. the bridge will give way soon enough...
fyi: the hedge fund testimony just started on the link/c-span 3 a few minutes ago on what must be a delayed feed as they intend to air the whole thing (ignore the 'live' in the upper right)
"Wait, is there something happening to the housing market?"
Our local Silver Spring, Maryland newspaper is showing the statistics in the housing market here, year to year. I won't bore anyone with the numbers, but you can take it from me that they are shocking, especially declines in price.
Montgomery County, Md. is supposed to be one of the most affluent counties in the country.
That NAREIT quote is definitely junk. The one thing I'll give them credit for is that their magazine they produce is pretty accurate and much more sobering... Its a great read....
homedad: We started our garden in 2003. Dude, you're going to be in heaven. It's a daily meditation and living art piece. And nothing feels as liberating as going into the yard with an empty basket and coming back with all you need for dinner.
Ideas on weird yield curve; maybe mortgage application increases are related to connections for 40 year mortgages, but what is Treasury using to back this? Coffee?
FYI, remember this: FHA has also stepped forward to offer refinance opportunities for borrowers with high risk conventional loans through FHASecure and HOPE for Homeowners. And we will continue to do more. For nearly three years, we have urged Congress to allow FHA to offer a 40-year mortgage product.
I have little doubt that home sales will decline in October from September--and home prices will probably decline too.
What's not clear is whether this article is measuring that volume change on a seasonally adjusted basis. If not, it may just be reflecting the well-established reality that most home sales occur in the spring/summer months and decline dramatically in the fall going into winter doldrums.
If the data is seasonally adjusted, then we have a different (but not unexpected) problem.
Was going to do it last Spring but wound up in hospital and spent months recuperating. Had removed fences and trees...
Looking forward to it.
Ned:
I'm good with staying put. Moved too many times and I'm done. As to her? She's turned down job offers since the area is way better lifestyle than very large majority of places in the country.
Check out what these amazing people do on a small lot in Pasadena, CA. If you think you can't grow much food unless you have acres, think again...and think differently.
we're saved! paulson and the captains of industry to band together...
Paulson to Discuss Economy and Markets
Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. will discuss the economy and financial markets Monday at a meeting of the Wall Street Journal CEO Council. The meeting will bring together CEOs of major global companies for a two day meeting on the economy and the issues ahead.
I'm sure the elimination of Down-payment Assistance Programs on October 1st had absolutely nothing to do with housing sales falling off a cliff. It's probably just statistical noise.
I used to think (yesterday) that we would make it to Spring before the wheels really fell off. Leaving our collective Buick scrapping asphalt, screaming metal, and cool sparks from the torn undercarriage.
I don't think so. I am thinking it might be the Christmas present that every Jew, Christian, and all the other cute rainbow religious, and non-religious, flavors get to unwrap.
I think GM and its problems just got a Red Bull rush to the downside. This alone is enough to take 3 wheels off the Buick of life. Retail numbers are going to be off the chart,naked auntie ugly.
. . . buy-side agents responding to the survey indicated a 19% drop in completed transactions.
I don't think this survey covers what is really happening in my area.
"Sell side agents" say they haven't been this busy in over a year. The sales in September were 88% REOs or short sales. You don't need a buy-side agent to buy REOs.
I do believe that non-distressed property sales could be down 32%, but that's not where the market is today.
BTW, price/sf is around $100, down from $185+ at the peak.
Since the banks "own" the mortgages, why is it that the mortgage payee is responsible for the home insurance and repairs and maintenance? And by the time the mortgage is paid off the payee has paid triple the price of the home? Homes are a blackhole sucking down income.
The mortgage system sucks at the teat of the people and should be drowned
I've been watching California's placer county market for months now. For several months foreclosures dropped off dramatically. This week I noticed a new flood of defaults --several of them million dollar homes in granite bay. Looks like the 3 months work out period is starting to show results.
"Shutoffs of service due to non-payment began climbing this summer, she says. Last year, SCE disconnected service to 222,000 customers over the whole year or 18,500 a month. Through August of this year, Yamauchi says, the utility had already turned off power to 240,000 customers or 30,000 a month. Thats a 62% jump in the monthly rate of shutoffs."
I'm fascinated that the number was that high last year.
If you're gonna be stuck...
homedad43 | Homepage | 11.13.08 - 11:34 am | #
I agree as I'm quite in the same situation.
BTW, thanks for the link in your signature - I'm going to become a dad too next month, and i'm looking for useful and inspiring links like that
(I know it's horrible times for having a kid - but fortunately life doesnt stop for equity/estate crisis!)
I've sold SRS too soon four times this year. I've got a mantra that goes like this, "I'm beating the S&P by 70% this year, sure 170% would be nice, forget the past, get it right next time."
I got stopped out of a position by a dime that would've been an easy $40K a week later. I bought a bunch at $67. It seems like a good idea to sell in the early triple digits.
CSC - I'm shocked, shocked to hear you are the gardening type.
LOL! We have some nice before and after pictures, but during...must back homedad up on this call. Plus, for me it was a be there now experience, not something to mediate with video or pics...YMMV.
Go figure, they just raised the rates here for the second time this year for a grand total of a 27% rise this year. Our water company did them several times better and just doubled the rate...good times.
Your real adventure is about to begin...congrats and best of luck.
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 11.13.08 - 11:42 am | #
Thank you. Of my grandfathers, one survived battle of Russia in WWII and the other was imprisoned in German camp for two years. Our breed is used to tough times, then I'm very confident about the future.
May I suggest for the health of your relationship that you not take a camera in the delivery room?
homedad43 | Homepage | 11.13.08 - 11:44 am | #
I won't enter delivery room; we've already agreed that I'll better be outside smoking a huge cuban cigar.
OK, where are we with this mortgage thing today?? Focus people, I don't need squirrel pancake recipes or crap about your thoughts on which religion has the best art or gun collection, we need focus, on how Treasury will fund longer term mortgages! Damn it!
From a few days ago: FHFA Modification Program Details
by CalculatedRisk on 11/11/2008 02:35:00 PM
Here is the press release from the FHFA. Note that this does not include principal reduction as a solution to create an affordable payment, and is limited to: "extending the term, reducing the interest rate, and forbearing interest".
Then> The Federal Housing Administration is willing to refinance certain delinquent borrowers with interest-only and payment-option adjustable rate mortgage under the FHASecure program, which is designed to rescue subprime borrowers.
However, the delinquency on an IO or option ARM must be the result of an interest rate reset or the full amortization of the mortgage, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Shortly after HUD launched FHASecure on September 5, lenders began asking whether IO and option ARMs would be eligible.
Mortgage industry consultant Bud Carter pointed out the revision. FHA will refinance almost any loan, except a conventional fixed rate mortgage that is delinquent, he said. Mr. Carter is with Potomac Partners in Washington.
Then, from way back in a visit in the Time machine: An interesting idea from a banker on C-Span: Create a negative-equity certificate attached to title (no interim pyts) when house is sold (assuming appreciation eventually recovers) the certificate is paid off (no interest) it will be a loss if the property is sold for a price that does not cover the amount of the negative equity certificate. (the Borrower would own any amount of the home sale in excess of the negative equity certificate.)
If debt to income ratios allow, structure an affordable 2nd loan to cover remaining mortgage balance due.
Request that FHA offer a 40 year fixed rate mortgage product to
well this is potentially good news, if china does grow as a consumer and rides this out, they should still buy our debt and we might get back to making and selling stuff. provided that their surplus isn't overstated and other factors of course.
China Retail Sales Rise 22%, Help to Counter Slowdown
CSC - I'm shocked, shocked to hear you are the gardening type.
12th Percentile
So were my folks. I started planting fruit trees the week we bought the house. We're on a 60x100 lot and have about two dozen of them now. Too bad the dang avocados take so long to produce.
I think last quarter,the real economy took a hammered spike to the chest. All the charts are Niagra looking. And I think people are starting to get scared.
On the brighter side, I have the best tomato/bean/cuke/squash crop ever this fall. I do all my gardening in pots. I also killed a nice 8 pt.
in the back yard last week.
anonymous, they just raised it 9% yesterday which will go into effect in January. Apparently they have no intention of dropping them as you suggest. I was wondering the same thing as I read the paper this morning and saw the article.
"Mayor Daley says chief executive officers told him huge layoffs will impact the city this month and into the new year. He also says city, county and state governments should be prepared for their revenue to fall dramatically because of the souring economy. . . .
'This is going to be all year, so it's going to be a very frightening economy,' Mayor Daley said. 'Each one tells me what they're laying off, and they're going to double that next year. We're talking huge numbers of permanent layoffs for people in the economy. It's going to have a huge effect on all businesses.'
The mayor said the gravity of the situation cannot be underestimated.
'We never experienced anything like this except people who came from the Depression," Mayor Daley said. "When you have that many layoffs early and they're telling me this is only the beginning of their layoffs that is very frightening.'"
Q?: How will this impact the yield curve and how is Treasury backing 40-year mortgages? Is this just amotization based on a 30-year or WTF?
By reducing documentation requirements and simplifying the analysis, potentially hundreds of thousands of delinquent borrowers with conventional and subprime loans who can afford a payment that is equal to 38 percent of their gross monthly will receive modification offers in the mail. Getting to an affordable monthly payment can happen in several ways:
the repayment time can be extended for 40 years;
the interest rate may be lowered; or
the principal may be reduced with the balance added to the back of the loan.s:
the repayment time can be extended for 40 years;
the interest rate may be lowered; or
the principal may be reduced with the balance added to the back of the loan.
FHA has also stepped forward to offer refinance opportunities for borrowers with high risk conventional loans through FHASecure and HOPE for Homeowners. And we will continue to do more. For nearly three years, we have urged Congress to allow FHA to offer a 40-year mortgage product.
Too bad the dang avocados take so long to produce.
If I could grow avocados, I would be set. That is living large. I get happy when i get a few tomatoes (the ones the squirrels don't eat off the vines) and some basil.
Have you read Siblings Without Rivalry? I consider it a perceptive book about past and present sibling relationships and the impact on raising your own children and their familial ties.
Yeah, I know. I pulled the trigger on a nice gain. Next Bear rally, I'll get back in.
If it gets back to $100 in the next few months (hopefully before the xmas results confirm the end of retail) I'm going to buy a foolishly large amount.
I have a question for you mortgage experts. I have an ARM that will adjust in February, we are not delinquent but had some late payments in the past two years. I am fairly certain when it adjusts it will be unsustainable as I was going to refinance originally after two years. Do I need to not make payments to qualify for a mortgage modification?
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) -- Mitch Mitchell, drummer for the legendary Jimi Hendrix Experience of the 1960s and the group's last surviving member, was found dead in his hotel room early Wednesday. He was 61.
Mitchell was a powerful force on the Hendrix band's 1967 debut album "Are You Experienced?" as well as the trio's albums "Electric Ladyland" and "Axis: Bold As Love." He had an explosive drumming style that can be heard in hard-charging songs such as "Fire" and "Manic Depression."
Anyway. What were people thinking? 510k new claims, mortgage rate UP, equity move up cushions gone, 401k/stock wealth effects evaporated, those meddlesome bloggers...
Just wait until rental rates start decreasing. you think you see a heterodyning system now? When high priced vacancies start going empty for even a few months there will be a series of whole new inventory dumped on the market.
Lock in your real estate investment profits now or be priced in forever.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"Anyone know where one can find the transcript or archived video of the hedge fund testimony? It is being missed by C-SPAN/CNBC for the most part and I would like to catch it later"
EHP, Don't know if anyone answered, but its on C-Span3 Live now;
Right, JP. Buy-and-bail is not a bad strategy either. But given that housing is going down, taking some time off as a renter would put Kristina in a better situation.
safe as, it was my family home, Mom died and left me a mortgage which I had to refinance after being out of work for a year being her full time caregiver. As a result they reamed me for not having a "work history". I really, really want to save what I have left of my parents at this point. I was also careful not to overborrow on it. It was appraised for 210K 21 months ago. I owe 128K on it.
If I could grow avocados, I would be set. That is living large. I get happy when i get a few tomatoes (the ones the squirrels don't eat off the vines) and some basil. - 12th Percentile
Trade? My "Bacon" varietal is about 6 weeks from maturity (bit late this year). Basil is good on squirrel, no?
If you have neg equity, it's a no brainer. Live mortgage payment free for a year or so. In the interim, you can either look to rent or buy at 50% off. Make the bank come to you.
WTF if, Treasury is going to use shit collateral from TARP to act as collateral for 40-year mortgage modification, i.e, take the original defaulted shit and put it into the back of the safe and then say it's as good as gold. Thus Treasury says it can back 40-year loans, without issuing a new 40-year bond ... huh, huh.... something like this maybe??? Treasury swaps shit for shit and everybody is happy, because homeowners get cheaper payments which helps with future cash flow and then banks like Wells Fargo, et al, get to dump their shit and swap it for something more liquid and then Treasury simply sits on the HUGE pile of shit for 50 years -- meanwhile, the yield curve becomes more distorted as a result of additional offerings and takes on shapes never seen before, somewhat like The Bart Simpson Trading Pattern, i.e, yah toss in a few 40-year bonds, a few 20-year bonds, re-package the short end, re-engineer this and that, then Obama cuts taxes, more stimulus cash mailed out and then, meanwhile, foreign investors that are already confused, stop investing in America because this is chaos...
RE taxes up 30% and home prices fall.
Street repairs non-existent
10.25% sales tax
Leased Midway
Leased Chicago skyway
Clogged expressways
public parking zoomed in price
meters .25cents per 5 minutes
And Duke Daly wants the money loser Olympics in 2016 and stiff chicagoans with the bill
Ministry, I don't know. I'm in Florida on the panhandle and of course real estate has gotten pounded here but I don't think I'm underwater at this point. I have just shy of an acre of land three br, 2a bath, stone fireplace, inground pool and Mother in Law apartment.
"Rob Dawg writes:
If I could grow avocados, I would be set. That is living large. I get happy when i get a few tomatoes (the ones the squirrels don't eat off the vines) and some basil. - 12th Percentile
Trade? My "Bacon" varietal is about 6 weeks from maturity (bit late this year). Basil is good on squirrel, no?"
I'd kill for a couple of avocado trees, but we don't have enough sun on our property, even for the dwarfs. Food of the gods, dude.
I do have several four-foot tall basil plants, carefully tended, on the sun porch. I'm going to see if I can make them last through the winter and harvest leaves along the way.
Anak, I know what you are saying and I try to tell myself that but then I look at all the handpainting in the house that Mom did herself and start crying all over again.
I really, really want to save what I have left of my parents at this point. I was also careful not to overborrow on it. It was appraised for 210K 21 months ago. I owe 128K on it.
I didn't read this before my last response, so ignore what I've written.
I wish you luck in resolution. It sounds painful from the outside.
I'm going to become a dad too next month, and i'm looking for useful and inspiring links like that
Echo on the congrats from everyone else. I've got two little ones - one's 2-1/2 and one's 8 months. You have absolutely no idea what it does to your worldview. Generally for the good, though, I promise ...
Prosaic advice, perhaps, but ... pack the hospital bag early and make sure to include your camera with an extra memory card and battery. My wife's water broke for the first one at 2:30am and we ran out of the house without our camera ... for the first 3 days of the little guy's new life we had to borrow her sister's (who fortunately lives just a few miles from the hospital). D'oh!
Oh, and open a 529 account for him or her as soon as you get a SS card issued, if you haven't already. I'm fairly sure the higher-ed bubble will pop well within the next 18 years but, even so, college costs aren't exactly pocket change ... and tax advantages are always nice too.
Kristina: I'm no mortgage expert, but I'd be uncomfortable intentionally missing payment without clarity and certainty regarding a write down. Since you want to keep the house, why not see what a refi would look like now instead of waiting until reset? If it would work for you, you would at least know where you stand going forward with this mess.
Brave of you to ask though. You were not treated so nicely here in the past when this was discussed.
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) -- Mitch Mitchell, drummer for the legendary Jimi Hendrix Experience of the 1960s and the group's last surviving member, was found dead
Unfortunately, it was reported in April 2008, that the FHA may encounter a deficit in fiscal 2009 (commences in October 2008) due to problems incurred in the agency's portfolio of seller-financed down payment loan program. This portion of the FHA's portfolio, approximately 35% of the FHA's total portfolio, has encountered substantial delinquency and foreclosure rates in recent years even though they are full document, fixed-rate loans.
Stop it! You're making a choice. A good friend was moaning all the time about being "stuck" in her condo and now she's divorcing. It's a poisonous meme that doesn't lead to a happy life.
Oh, and open a 529 account for him or her as soon as you get a SS card issued, if you haven't already. I'm fairly sure the higher-ed bubble will pop well within the next 18 years but, even so, college costs aren't exactly pocket change ... and tax advantages are always nice too.
Best of luck to you!
Mook | 11.13.08 - 12:08 pm | #
Thanks Mook!
We've already all packed up, including the camera
As I live in Italy, I don't know what a 529 account is! And for now, high schools/universities are almost free here (and private schools are generally worst than public ones).
ades, usually there is a slight decline NSA from Sept to Oct (although last year NSA sales increased slightly from Sept to Oct). A 19% decline is significant and is much much more than the usually seasonal decline.
Free time is great. Babies are great. However, free time and babies don't mix. Every time your baby wakes you up screaming at the top of its lungs, remember how it stole your free time. And your sanity. Good luck.
Currently, 40 to 50 percent of all loan modifications are re-defaulting. This is astronomically high and will translate into higher bank losses and lost time for the homeowner to begin rebuilding his or her credit rating. Loan Modifications | Rain City Guide
CSC-great vid.
Being the code compliance officer and the HOA management company representative for this area shown on the video, this property and it's numerous architectural, health and safety violations, and non-compliance with the Federal livestock registration requirements can now be ameliorated.
Bulgari Cuts Profit, Sales Outlook on Slumping Jewelry Demand
By Sara Gay Forden
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bulgari SpA, the world's third- largest jeweler, scrapped its forecast for increased profit this year as the financial crisis prompted the world's wealthy to halt purchases of Diagono watches and Elisia necklaces.
With all this taxpayer loot being handed out like goobermint cheese, is anyone else surprised by the silence from the airline industry? Their business models mostly stink, so they should be up their feeding with the other hogs.
Comrade Kristina
In addition to FHA, you might also talk to your current lender. With the current RE situation in Fl, foreclosure is the last option they want. They may even give you a reasonable fixed rate. They do not want another REO. I would start the process yesterday. Keep payments current until you know where you're at.
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
With all this taxpayer loot being handed out like goobermint cheese, is anyone else surprised by the silence from the airline industry? Their business models mostly stink, so they should be up their feeding with the other hogs.
Where are they? Don't they want some cheddar?
That is weird. Maybe they have already become Bank Holding Companies.
Kristina, I highly suggest you lay off the weed, though. They won't do a workout if they know you smoke the stuff. You should switch to crack, they're Okay with that.
ewbie 101 writes:
I do all my gardening in pots.
the_economist | 11.13.08 - 11:50 am | #
I like that idea. More control, right?
Newbie, I dont get as much bugs, I dont have to lean over, I can direct water and fertilizer easier. So, yea,
more control:-)
I live in Florida, which is nice because I have two spring growing seasons. If it gets cold, I just bring my pots in. The only problem is the deer. I have to keep a little fence around my area.
I also have a lot of fruit trees:
Orange/peach/nectarine/apple
My chart for Dow looks pretty interesting as I didn't open my feed until about a half hour ago, it's a straight line down into the abyss...How prophetic.
Redoing a loan for someone who still cant pay it only leaves the borrower worse off than where he started, said Joshua Rosner, managing director of the investment firm Graham Fisher, and a longtime critic of loan modifications. Early in the downturn, failed subprime lender New Century Financial had loan modification default rates of 50 percent, he said.
Adding to the problem: Restructurings dont work all that well even in the best of times. Redoing loans while housing prices fall means the homeowner could once again find himself underwater, even with his restructured loan, and in a position to default once again.
Before the government launches mass loan modifications, it should be gathering and analyzing redefault rates, to see if the whole thing is worth it, Rosner said. To him, Congress supports loan modifications as a way to let regulators eke out a patchwork of solutions.
Then it can avoid making a bold but controversial move, like creating something similar to the Home Owners Loan Corp., which purchased and refinanced delinquent home mortgages during the Great Depression.
I ate a ho ho once. Afterwards I regretted it. The thought of how many dudes had been there and what they'd done made me ill. If I fail because of it, so be it. Most don't even allow it anyway.
"Just walking = committing to renting for about 7yrs"
JP, Not if one has cash.
I'd do it if I were single. There is nothing I enjoy more than screwing the man over, legally.
A few examples:
I routinely over pay bills. I mail back many hundreds of pounds of household garbage in those handy little free mail envelopes banks send me. I routinely send fake payments. It costs companies hundreds (if not thousands) of dollars to deal with my ersatz payments for a non-existent fees. I get back my original investment every time. But even if I didn't, the entertainment value of having corporate accountants leave frantic messages is worth it.
CSC, if you added up the cost of water, fertilizer, soil amendments, seed, labor, and amortized land cost you'd realize that your victory garden is a pipe dream. Its cheaper to buy from a local CSA, progressive grocery, or co-op.
squeezed: I am a member of our local CSA. And I think you miss the point about gardens. It's about so much more than could be quantified by a bean counter.
why does he bother? Is he just trying to cement his Hoover 2 legacy? Dude, face it, it's in the bag. Take the rest of your term off. Please, for our sake.
How is Tanta doing; we need her! Hope she is well!
Random tidbits>
Down Payment Assistance:
Only eliminates seller-funded DPAs
28% default rate on these loans; this is 3 times the default rate on FHA loans without seller-funded DPA
Anyone seen PCA today? If memory serves, he mentioned yesterday that he was going long SPY with a stop at 84.5ish. I wonder if the quick little drop we just had was due to his position being liquidated...
MANY thanks for the uplifting video. It's nice to know there are other families that take this seriously. AND, you are 200% correct - nothing like biting into one of your own veggies. Send me your addy, I'll send you a can of our killer sweet relish - award-winning stuff.........
Kris - you carry with you the most important things your parents did. What they painted or built is going to flake and fall apart. It's stuff.
You need to prepare for 10-15% decline in GDP over the next three years; a fairly typical aftermath of a major meltdown.
I went through that in Finland as a kid and people lived through it - but they ad to be willing to let go. Those that moved on first were the first to rebuild their credit and find new jobs, etc.
Radian declared some sweeping changes that begin on the 20th. Changes such as "Maximum LTV for Declining Markets will be 90% for all products", "Maximum LTV for Stable Markets will be 95% for all products", "Maximum DTI of 55% for Blue Box Loans (Conforming, 1-2 Unit Owner Occupied.. blah, blah...
Wells is taking a defensive, probably wise, path and saying, "The must close and fund date' for the High Balance Conforming Loan Program has changed from Dec. 31st to Dec. 1st, to mitigate the risk of unsalable loans. Lock Period Deadlines: High Balance Conforming Loan Program loans should not be locked with lock expiration dates later than Dec. 1st." For their High Balance FHA Loan Program, which also expires on December 31st, "these loans must close and fund on or before Dec. 31st. Since the 2009 loan limits may be decreasing from the current 2008 limits... blah, blah...
The cleaner your pipeline, the better your score.Performance Scores are recalculated quarterly. So you alwayshave the opportunity and great reasons to reach for ahigher benefits level.
rps writes:
Since the banks "own" the mortgages, why is it that the mortgage payee is responsible for the home insurance and repairs and maintenance? And by the time the mortgage is paid off the payee has paid triple the price of the home? Homes are a blackhole sucking down income.
The mortgage system sucks at the teat of the people and should be drowned
rps | 11.13.08 - 11:39 am | #
rps,
I have long made that argument. Based on a 30-yr. note, anything more than 250K is not fiscally wise unless you have waaaaaay more than 20% down.
Thin about it. A 300K home will cost you 2.5X with interest and Princ. only making it 750K. Add in 1.5% for taxes and Mello Roos or whatever you want to call it and that adds another 4,500/yr x 30, which equals 135K. In CA, you have HOAs, which add another 100-200 Month, esp. in the newer more uppity areas, meaning at least another 40-50K, which means you are now looking at anywhere from 900K - 1 million on a 300K note.
OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What is up with that?
If I rent for 2K a month I would get 450 months of rent vs. the 360 on the loan.
In addition, I don't get the headaches of maintenance and yardwork.
Yeah, the thought of putting a blue tarp over my leaky roof in the middle of December at 3 in the morning has me running to get a loan from the bank right now.
People just don't get it. Home ownership is not for everyone and there is no shame in that.
Especially right now. People need to realize that in this economic environment, you need to simplify. downsize, and save wherever you can.
Shays, lame duck from Fairfield county, is coming up again soon with the HF panel. With the last panel of experts, he started off with,(paraphrasing)"These guys always told me, 'It's fine, we are the smartest guys in the room'"...
Request that FHA offer a 40 year fixed rate mortgage product to
Kona | 11.13.08 - 11:49 am | #
40 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Crikey, I thought the point of the loan was to pay ot off...
in your lifetime, so you get to enjoy living somewhere without big housing expenses.
40 years.
If that's what it will take, I am so out. Rather be bitter renter, than live like that. Either that, or I will wait until I retire and then buy something with cash in the middle of N. Dakota.
Mike in Long Island: My current favorite is a 7 speed beach cruiser. It's got a 40 mile range for me, so it works here. I also ride MTB as well as an adult tricycle. I have my eye out for a vintage Schwinn ATM.
Buffett getting ass kicked in down turn, which I have to say is only fair! Gads, about a month ago his primo shares were at $151,650 and today the old bugger is @ $97,000! Wow baby, what about his dividend and future cash flow (Tiny Time asks): Not to worry Tim ol boy, Warren doesn't provide a dividend....
Mike in Long Island: There are some awesome road-ready bikes they call 'comfort bikes' out now. They've got fatter tires than road and are more efficient than MTB for city stuff. Very nice.
I also highly recommend those giant bull horn shaped bars. You can sit fully upright and cruise around with the proud look of a rooster on wheels.
Crikey, indeed! They really need to modify a 15 year loan and reduce the rate, so people can get out of debt someday, versus deeper into it! This reminds me of extended auto loans, i.e, I love Toyotas but some of these cars that are $60,000 tie up people for 10 years, with cheap and easy payments... disgusting!
However, stop there. It isn't like he has produced the cure for AIDs or cancer.
Puhlease!
He runs a freakin' holding company. What I'd like to know is how many people he has directly/indirectly shafted through Geico Ins. and other claims that were never paid out?
Also, what about his stake in Moody's? No conflict there now?
That is another part of what made this credit bubble so HUGE!
HOWMUCHAMONTH! That is all people wanted to know.
Well, that is like me a my fantasy.
Let's see, a 50K vette at 7 years with 0% interest. At 84 months, it would cost me $600/month. And that's without full insurance, which would run another $500/month.
Could we swing $1,100/month? Sure, but for 7 years.
People need to think about the cost in terms of the larger picture, not just the monthly.
Then again, even after I own it after 7 years and even during, what is my maintence cost? $200 for an oil change. Ghads! What about a tranny?
And then this. What about GM itself?
people just don't account (pun intended) for all sides of the picture. I realize you cannot account for everything, but it just seems people didn't care.
S&P now at 823, just a day or 2 from the low of the dot com crash of 776.76 on 10/9/02. This was the mother of all double tops, and that is a VERY significant support level to anyone with even a casual interest in tech analysis. Not a huge fan of Tech analysis myself, but know that there are enough others out there that do pay attention that one has to be aware of it. Also when the technicals like up with the fundimantal story it does make for some good confirmation. Watch the 777 level, if we break it we may have crapped out.
The collapse in CA will accelerate...there are too many people with expensive homes who refinanced at the peak, and are now upside down 30-50% and waiting for the big recovery that will not happen for 20 years. 50% of all mortgages in NV are in the negative. The home ATM credit line is over. Too bad it's all secured debt unlike credit cards- sucks to be them. I'm just happy that we did an 80/20 100% purchase price loan with no refi's. Most of our neighbors refi'd to do their landscaping and buy pools- ouch!
"...In other words, in order to "fix" the problems created by sub-prime lending practices, which included such predatory tricks as low-interest teaser rates, 40-year mortgages, and adding balances to the end of mortage loans, all in order to make mortgages "affordable" to borrowers who could not afford them. . . the government is proposing exactly the same thing! This is nothing more than an attempt to prop up housing long enough to kick the can down the road a few years.
Most importantly, this "solution" fails to address the fundamental issue at the bottom of the housing crisis: Negative Equity, which is the primary reason for mortgage default."
Duarte writes:
The buyers are looking at the graphs on Zillow, and say to themselves...should I buy on a down trend or should I buy on an uptrend?
In theory it should not matter which way. Although I would say you don't want to chase the proverbial falling knife. The key ie "be true to thine own self."
In other words, do the numbers work out? Is it cheaper to be a homedebtor than a renter. Is your job secure for the next 10-15 years, minimum, preferably all 30, if the note is that long.
Have you accounted for all costs:
-Principal
-Interest over life of loan
-Taxes (These will go forever, trust me)
-Insurance(s)(Same as above, you always need fire insurance)
-HOAs (if applicable)(They won't go away either, only go higher as the decades roll by)
-Repairs (trust me, you ain't gettin' 35 years outta that water heater)
-Maintenance (mowing lawn for 30 mins. 50 weeks a year here in So. Cal = 25 hours x 30 years = 750 hours, which at a modest $10/hour is $7,500 in lawn mowing alone!)
There is so much more than just paying off the principal.
However, the index does have two major support levels below; namely, the 8,200 and 7,880 levels. If 8,200 is crossed with ease, it will likely drop back toward 7,880 for another tango. SignalWatch LIVE!
Couldn't agree more about CA. Talked to one realtor/Trump/homedebtor last Saturday. He told me he is upside 100K on one of his 3 bed condo rentals. Ouch! Sucks to be him and can't imagine what he gets for the rental. I am sure he will try yo make up for the loss he is paying on the mortgage.
Tragically, he said everyone in the Rancho Santa Marg area, esp. around the lake was in the position.
Well, I said it for 5 years now and I'll say it again. You can't lend a family making 75-100K a year, 600-700K and expect them to pay it back.
Not a chance and those values can't hold.
600K for a home.
Sure, and when the 30 years is up you will have spent upwards of $2 million. Sure, those homes will be worth that in 2038!
Yah, why not, just play the exact same game, and then put new cheese in a new trap and wait for the mice to flood in -- only this time, the trap is being built to hold the mouse for a longer time. I often wonder if this is related to social security budget shortfalls and the concept that Obama spoke of, where we will be asked to work until about 70 -- thus, if you work until your about dead, a 40 or 50 year mortgage would be a nice lure, ehhh?
Yah, why not, just play the exact same game, and then put new cheese in a new trap and wait for the mice to flood in -- only this time, the trap is being built to hold the mouse for a longer time. I often wonder if this is related to social security budget shortfalls and the concept that Obama spoke of, where we will be asked to work until about 70 -- thus, if you work until your about dead, a 40 or 50 year mortgage would be a nice lure, ehhh?
Kona | 11.13.08 - 1:22 pm | #
Kona,
I know I can be tinfoil with the best of them, but I have thought this for the last couple of years.
While I saw a bubble building farther back, it was't until I really studied what was going on to think that TPTB want everyone to be a debt-slave.
Just look at the CC forgiveness that didn't get through yesterday.
Sure, we'll spend $700 billion and not tell you on what. We'll bailout everyone, except those who really pay the bills.
Tells you want TPTB really think of "We the People."
Auto loans are being ignored somewhat and the fallout of cash flow related to this:
FORD MOTOR COMPANY form10q.htm
As of October 27, 2008, the registrant had outstanding 2,318,003,459 shares of Common Stock and 70,852,076 shares of Class B Stock.
Ford Credit's funding plan is subject to risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond its control. If auction values for used vehicles weaken further or there is continued disruption in the market capacity for the types of asset-backed securities used in Ford Credit's asset-backed funding, there will be increased risk to Ford Credit's funding plan. As a result, Ford Credit may need to further reduce the amount of finance receivables and operating leases it purchases or originates; this reduction could reduce Ford Credit's ongoing profits and adversely affect its ability to support the sale of Ford vehicles
"We the People, in Order to Support Our Betters in the Standard that They Have Become Accustomed, Establish Preference, insure Domestic Tranquility, provide for the defense of the Status Quo, promote the Wealthy, and Secure the Blessings of Subsidy to the Wealthy and their Posterity do ordain and establish this updated Constitution for the United States of America."
Wait, is there something happening to the housing market?
th!
2nd!!!
Well, yeah, but NAR reports are always too pessimistic.
C-SPAN Hedge Fund Hearing Live Video Stream
We have met the wall.
Styx'th
Ateth.
Translation: nothing is moving unless its at least 35% off its 2005 price peak.
On an other, anecdotal note, I had told my landlord a few months ago I was planning to buy a house this year and that I'd be out by April. He was over to winterize our place last year and mentioned, by the way, that I am a wonderful tenant and there's no rush on our move. Interesting..
"The most recent Pending Home Sales report from the NAR indicated a decline in pending sales in September, but this survey suggests pending sales fell off a cliff in October."
This entire economy has become a Wile E. Coyote moment. It better knock it off before it hurts itself.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
Anyone know where one can find the transcript or archived video of the hedge fund testimony? It is being missed by C-SPAN/CNBC for the most part and I would like to catch it later
OT: Our SEC reprting mgr just got off a con call with our Euro CFO. She asked me what was going on in Iceland that was material to our Euro ops. Euro CFO mentioned Iceland situation several times and she was too ebarrassed to ask on the call. This is a really sharp lady too. This shows me there are still a lot of people who are mostly oblivious to the severity of our situation. They know the economy isn't good but thats as far as it goes.
I realize some people don't respect NAR's opinion on things. So be it. But I don't think there is anyone who could question the great advice of NAREIT.
REITs, however, continue to offer a strong value opportunity for long-term investors. Consider the following points:
Some real estate industry analysts are pointing to the likelihood of a 20 percent drop in direct commercial real estate values from the 2007 peak.
Yet, REIT stocks currently are down approximately 47 percent from their peak in February 2007.
REITs led the private commercial property market on the way into this down-cycle as they traditionally have done and they now are trading at a deep discount to the level the direct property market is projected to reach.
Because REITs also traditionally have led the private commercial property market in recoveries, REITs today are an exceptional value opportunity.
Surrprize, Surrprize, Surprize
again, I have to reiterate that I'm getting really tired of that old man standing on the bridge, banging his cane, and screaming something about "you shall not pass" (850) ... push him off already!
Any forecast about the DOW today?
Here in Yurop we had nausea from the up/down floating through the day.
Capitulation is still not here.
n+1th
" REITs today are an exceptional value opportunity."
Erm...aren't these guys levered rather severely. Might explain a thing or two.
Nostrovia,
∞th
I wi
Tyler K - very funny.
General poll question. What hits $300 first? SKF, SRS, or EEV?
JPM and PNC racing for red. Or are they last on the island.
I'm comin to ya Elizabeth; with foreclosure notice in my hand!
So is that an ominous Mountains of Mordor formation today?
Nostrovia,
"again, I have to reiterate that I'm getting really tired of that old man standing on the bridge, banging his cane, and screaming something about "you shall not pass" (850) ... push him off already!"
Patience, my comrade. the bridge will give way soon enough...
Am I the only one that, for just a moment, expected this survey to measure soup consumption?
NAR to become a bank holding company?
How much of this is simply seasonal?
fyi: the hedge fund testimony just started on the link/c-span 3 a few minutes ago on what must be a delayed feed as they intend to air the whole thing (ignore the 'live' in the upper right)
From Campbell Surveys: Survey of Real Estate Agents Shows 19% Drop In Home Sales From September to October (no link)
CR whats the traditional falloff from sept to oct. There is a seasonal decline anyway right?
Either way 32% in CA is a big deal... ouch!
Whats the odds they lower the conforming limits in Jan as they are suppose to?
I'm thinking not likely....
you shall not pass" (850) ... push him off already!"
S&P 500\t849.53\t-2.77\t-0.33%
Ya pass!!
Nothing new here to see...move along
Campbell Survey: Home Sales to Fall Sharply in October
It's official: Campbell says we're in the soup.
12th,
SRS...sold Friday morning. I don't really want to think about it right now.
Nostrovia,
"Wait, is there something happening to the housing market?"
Our local Silver Spring, Maryland newspaper is showing the statistics in the housing market here, year to year. I won't bore anyone with the numbers, but you can take it from me that they are shocking, especially declines in price.
Montgomery County, Md. is supposed to be one of the most affluent counties in the country.
Unable to sell, people are renting their homes. In Chicago I've seen many a home with a for rent sign.
serf AG - my hats off to you.
Good work!!!
Breaking News: Your cellmate is going to give you another thrust.
I'm numb.
C is crumbling (again) today
12th,
That NAREIT quote is definitely junk. The one thing I'll give them credit for is that their magazine they produce is pretty accurate and much more sobering... Its a great read....
John Yarmuth, (D,Ky) great job debunking Hedge fund stooge.
EHP:
CSpan usually put it up on the front page.
Yarmuth has a brain.
Wife now gets it. Big time.
Said other day, we really are stuck in this house, aren't we? We really couldn't sell, could we?
Ah, nope.
And next year, barring another hospitalization, we're planting a huge garden.
Already took out the trees and fence.
OT - Behind us are apartments and they have extra land that is now being surveyed for addition of another apartment building.
Gonna love to see this...
hank to ppt:
come in, come in
calling?
where are you?
what, you're applying to become a bank holding company?
doesn't cut it Ned ... that's just like the defence line pushing the offensive line back a yard or two from scrimage line, that's it
you got to flush from the pocket ... then were in business
homedad: We started our garden in 2003. Dude, you're going to be in heaven. It's a daily meditation and living art piece. And nothing feels as liberating as going into the yard with an empty basket and coming back with all you need for dinner.
Do it, dude!
emo! Gawk!
Ideas on weird yield curve; maybe mortgage application increases are related to connections for 40 year mortgages, but what is Treasury using to back this? Coffee?
FYI, remember this: FHA has also stepped forward to offer refinance opportunities for borrowers with high risk conventional loans through FHASecure and HOPE for Homeowners. And we will continue to do more. For nearly three years, we have urged Congress to allow FHA to offer a 40-year mortgage product.
Wife now gets it. Big time.
homedad43
Sorry for you, homedad.
Pavel:
Moved from Four Corners area 10 years ago.
Sold our place for $155K and as of two years, realty transactions showed houses across street at $400K+.
That said, with Metro and admin turnover, lower Montgomery County will hold up relatively well. Gaithersburg/Quince Orchard? Eh...
I have little doubt that home sales will decline in October from September--and home prices will probably decline too.
What's not clear is whether this article is measuring that volume change on a seasonally adjusted basis. If not, it may just be reflecting the well-established reality that most home sales occur in the spring/summer months and decline dramatically in the fall going into winter doldrums.
If the data is seasonally adjusted, then we have a different (but not unexpected) problem.
Pavel:
Left a reply to your 4 am note.
homedad,
Just pray the apartment isn't converted to low-income housing.
Oops, he voted for the bailout.
That said, with Metro and admin turnover, lower Montgomery County will hold up relatively well.
Keep in mind that "new admin" also means lots of forced sales. I'm curious which way this falls out. (fyi, I'm in alexandria.)
Goldman Sex, trust me, a wife that gets it is . . . well she gets it.
.
CSC:
Was going to do it last Spring but wound up in hospital and spent months recuperating. Had removed fences and trees...
Looking forward to it.
Ned:
I'm good with staying put. Moved too many times and I'm done. As to her? She's turned down job offers since the area is way better lifestyle than very large majority of places in the country.
If you're gonna be stuck...
....."nothing feels as liberating as going into the yard with an empty basket and coming back with all you need for dinner."
Gives me warm fuzzies - going to check the cukes, 'maters, onions, peppers in the greenhouse.....
homedad and other food growers:
YouTube - HOMEGROWN REVOLUTION - Radical Change Taking Root
Check out what these amazing people do on a small lot in Pasadena, CA. If you think you can't grow much food unless you have acres, think again...and think differently.
we're saved! paulson and the captains of industry to band together...
Paulson to Discuss Economy and Markets
Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. will discuss the economy and financial markets Monday at a meeting of the Wall Street Journal CEO Council. The meeting will bring together CEOs of major global companies for a two day meeting on the economy and the issues ahead.
Who
Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr.
What
Discussion on the Economy and Markets
When
Monday, November 17, 6:30 p.m. EST
Lots of power getting shut off on homedebtors...
Edison’s power shutoffs jump 10% - Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register
I'm sure the elimination of Down-payment Assistance Programs on October 1st had absolutely nothing to do with housing sales falling off a cliff. It's probably just statistical noise.
homedad: Too bad you aren't in SoCal. You'd have free labor if you needed. Best of luck with your health, man.
I been screwed,
I'm in deep,
lost my house - I'm on the street,
Now I'm turning tricks down by the zoo,
hope my gov - ern - ment knows what to do.
Hu haa, Hey kids! Today, were gonna go looking for treasure in the dumpsters and pick fruit off of trees in people's yards. I made a map!
I used to think (yesterday) that we would make it to Spring before the wheels really fell off. Leaving our collective Buick scrapping asphalt, screaming metal, and cool sparks from the torn undercarriage.
I don't think so. I am thinking it might be the Christmas present that every Jew, Christian, and all the other cute rainbow religious, and non-religious, flavors get to unwrap.
I think GM and its problems just got a Red Bull rush to the downside. This alone is enough to take 3 wheels off the Buick of life. Retail numbers are going to be off the chart,naked auntie ugly.
. . . buy-side agents responding to the survey indicated a 19% drop in completed transactions.
I don't think this survey covers what is really happening in my area.
"Sell side agents" say they haven't been this busy in over a year. The sales in September were 88% REOs or short sales. You don't need a buy-side agent to buy REOs.
I do believe that non-distressed property sales could be down 32%, but that's not where the market is today.
BTW, price/sf is around $100, down from $185+ at the peak.
Since the banks "own" the mortgages, why is it that the mortgage payee is responsible for the home insurance and repairs and maintenance? And by the time the mortgage is paid off the payee has paid triple the price of the home? Homes are a blackhole sucking down income.
The mortgage system sucks at the teat of the people and should be drowned
Free labor? The illegals hanging around on the sidewalk by the Home Depot almost always want something.
I've been watching California's placer county market for months now. For several months foreclosures dropped off dramatically. This week I noticed a new flood of defaults --several of them million dollar homes in granite bay. Looks like the 3 months work out period is starting to show results.
c&c,
"Shutoffs of service due to non-payment began climbing this summer, she says. Last year, SCE disconnected service to 222,000 customers over the whole year or 18,500 a month. Through August of this year, Yamauchi says, the utility had already turned off power to 240,000 customers or 30,000 a month. Thats a 62% jump in the monthly rate of shutoffs."
I'm fascinated that the number was that high last year.
Nostrovia,
Thinking out loud bog?
If you're gonna be stuck...
homedad43 | Homepage | 11.13.08 - 11:34 am | #
I agree as I'm quite in the same situation.
BTW, thanks for the link in your signature - I'm going to become a dad too next month, and i'm looking for useful and inspiring links like that
(I know it's horrible times for having a kid - but fortunately life doesnt stop for equity/estate crisis!)
Nova:
"naked auntie ugly"?
That could qualify as a TA chart description.
LOL @ Double half batman.
CSC:
Thanks.
This morning's Bart Simpson action looks a lot like last Friday. I wonder if we'll get another 30 point short covering jam into the close
Ned,
Your real adventure is about to begin...congrats and best of luck.
Ned:
Congratulations.
I'm going to try to make it a going concern.
As to kids, they're worth every penny.
May I suggest for the health of your relationship that you not take a camera in the delivery room?
Comrade Misean is Dope - I think Orange County has been hurting since early 2007 when the house ATM was shut off...
Comrade Misean
I've sold SRS too soon four times this year. I've got a mantra that goes like this, "I'm beating the S&P by 70% this year, sure 170% would be nice, forget the past, get it right next time."
I got stopped out of a position by a dime that would've been an easy $40K a week later. I bought a bunch at $67. It seems like a good idea to sell in the early triple digits.
CSC - I'm shocked, shocked to hear you are the gardening type.
homedad,
LOL! We have some nice before and after pictures, but during...must back homedad up on this call. Plus, for me it was a be there now experience, not something to mediate with video or pics...YMMV.
Go figure, they just raised the rates here for the second time this year for a grand total of a 27% rise this year. Our water company did them several times better and just doubled the rate...good times.
Ned,
Your real adventure is about to begin...congrats and best of luck.
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 11.13.08 - 11:42 am | #
Thank you. Of my grandfathers, one survived battle of Russia in WWII and the other was imprisoned in German camp for two years. Our breed is used to tough times, then I'm very confident about the future.
May I suggest for the health of your relationship that you not take a camera in the delivery room?
homedad43 | Homepage | 11.13.08 - 11:44 am | #
I won't enter delivery room; we've already agreed that
I'll better be outside smoking a huge cuban cigar.
digging out lower lows as the day progresses
Jim Cooper (D, TN) questioning volatility only traders' "value".
The Dem's understand that the major function of hedge funds is to combine large wealth holders so they can exercise leverage.
I think they see it: leverage, in this usage, is just market manipulation of another color. Liquidity is fine, but floods are bad.
OK, where are we with this mortgage thing today?? Focus people, I don't need squirrel pancake recipes or crap about your thoughts on which religion has the best art or gun collection, we need focus, on how Treasury will fund longer term mortgages! Damn it!
From a few days ago: FHFA Modification Program Details
by CalculatedRisk on 11/11/2008 02:35:00 PM
Here is the press release from the FHFA. Note that this does not include principal reduction as a solution to create an affordable payment, and is limited to: "extending the term, reducing the interest rate, and forbearing interest".
Then> The Federal Housing Administration is willing to refinance certain delinquent borrowers with interest-only and payment-option adjustable rate mortgage under the FHASecure program, which is designed to rescue subprime borrowers.
However, the delinquency on an IO or option ARM must be the result of an interest rate reset or the full amortization of the mortgage, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Shortly after HUD launched FHASecure on September 5, lenders began asking whether IO and option ARMs would be eligible.
Mortgage industry consultant Bud Carter pointed out the revision. FHA will refinance almost any loan, except a conventional fixed rate mortgage that is delinquent, he said. Mr. Carter is with Potomac Partners in Washington.
If debt to income ratios allow, structure an affordable 2nd loan to cover remaining mortgage balance due.
Request that FHA offer a 40 year fixed rate mortgage product to
well this is potentially good news, if china does grow as a consumer and rides this out, they should still buy our debt and we might get back to making and selling stuff. provided that their surplus isn't overstated and other factors of course.
China Retail Sales Rise 22%, Help to Counter Slowdown
Bloomberg.com:
News
CSC - I'm shocked, shocked to hear you are the gardening type.
12th Percentile
So were my folks. I started planting fruit trees the week we bought the house. We're on a 60x100 lot and have about two dozen of them now. Too bad the dang avocados take so long to produce.
Gardens and bicycles, dude. Nothing I enjoy more.
Go figure, they just raised the rates here for the second time this year for a grand total of a 27% rise this year.
A bunch of utilities got permission to raise rates during the summer when the commodities were going parabolic.
I'm wondering how many of those utes will return those increases now that commodities have collapsed.
I think last quarter,the real economy took a hammered spike to the chest. All the charts are Niagra looking. And I think people are starting to get scared.
On the brighter side, I have the best tomato/bean/cuke/squash crop ever this fall. I do all my gardening in pots. I also killed a nice 8 pt.
in the back yard last week.
Goldman sex, aka ned flanders, best of luck to you and your new addition.
New boss's arrival will change everything.
Keep us posted, when you can (Ha, you'll see).
Any old thing can happen to a man and woman, but parenthood can be among the greatest of them.
anonymous, they just raised it 9% yesterday which will go into effect in January. Apparently they have no intention of dropping them as you suggest. I was wondering the same thing as I read the paper this morning and saw the article.
Any HB (CA) folks know how that new Brightwater development is selling? Been getting all kinds of mailers on that thing
Lame duck Shays (R,Ct) up. Always sounds like a 14 tear old.
More cheery news from Chicago:
"Mayor Daley says chief executive officers told him huge layoffs will impact the city this month and into the new year. He also says city, county and state governments should be prepared for their revenue to fall dramatically because of the souring economy. . . .
'This is going to be all year, so it's going to be a very frightening economy,' Mayor Daley said. 'Each one tells me what they're laying off, and they're going to double that next year. We're talking huge numbers of permanent layoffs for people in the economy. It's going to have a huge effect on all businesses.'
The mayor said the gravity of the situation cannot be underestimated.
'We never experienced anything like this except people who came from the Depression," Mayor Daley said. "When you have that many layoffs early and they're telling me this is only the beginning of their layoffs that is very frightening.'"
12th,
Yeah, I know. I pulled the trigger on a nice gain. Next Bear rally, I'll get back in.
Nostrovia,
By reducing documentation requirements and simplifying the analysis, potentially hundreds of thousands of delinquent borrowers with conventional and subprime loans who can afford a payment that is equal to 38 percent of their gross monthly will receive modification offers in the mail. Getting to an affordable monthly payment can happen in several ways:
the repayment time can be extended for 40 years;
the interest rate may be lowered; or
the principal may be reduced with the balance added to the back of the loan.s:
the repayment time can be extended for 40 years;
the interest rate may be lowered; or
the principal may be reduced with the balance added to the back of the loan.
FHA has also stepped forward to offer refinance opportunities for borrowers with high risk conventional loans through FHASecure and HOPE for Homeowners. And we will continue to do more. For nearly three years, we have urged Congress to allow FHA to offer a 40-year mortgage product.
Keep us posted, when you can (Ha, you'll see).
On the bright side, I won't be longer affected by all that doom and gloom
Thank you.
Too bad the dang avocados take so long to produce.
If I could grow avocados, I would be set. That is living large. I get happy when i get a few tomatoes (the ones the squirrels don't eat off the vines) and some basil.
BBBBBWWWWHHHHHAAAAAAA
Shays now free to stick it to Greenwich.
Beautiful.
homedad43,
Have you read Siblings Without Rivalry? I consider it a perceptive book about past and present sibling relationships and the impact on raising your own children and their familial ties.
I do all my gardening in pots.
the_economist | 11.13.08 - 11:50 am | #
I like that idea. More control, right?
Yeah, I know. I pulled the trigger on a nice gain. Next Bear rally, I'll get back in.
If it gets back to $100 in the next few months (hopefully before the xmas results confirm the end of retail) I'm going to buy a foolishly large amount.
Anyone take a gander at the commercial paper outstandings reported weekly - released today?
The total CP market was basically flat, it expanded $2.9 B SA. The week before, $50.5 B, the week before that when the Fed jumped in $100.5 B...hmmmm
Commercial Paper Outstanding
I have a question for you mortgage experts. I have an ARM that will adjust in February, we are not delinquent but had some late payments in the past two years. I am fairly certain when it adjusts it will be unsustainable as I was going to refinance originally after two years. Do I need to not make payments to qualify for a mortgage modification?
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) -- Mitch Mitchell, drummer for the legendary Jimi Hendrix Experience of the 1960s and the group's last surviving member, was found dead in his hotel room early Wednesday. He was 61.
Mitchell was a powerful force on the Hendrix band's 1967 debut album "Are You Experienced?" as well as the trio's albums "Electric Ladyland" and "Axis: Bold As Love." He had an explosive drumming style that can be heard in hard-charging songs such as "Fire" and "Manic Depression."
economist-an 8pt in your backyard?
where are you Utah, CO, Idaho, WA, or midwest? Venison sausage sounds great right now...
CSC-thanks for video-that's cool..
BTW my mortgage is through Saxon (Morgan Stanley) the only mortgage company that hasn't come out with a foreclosure moratorium go figure.
Kristina,
Just walk for Glod's sake. Buy something cheaper in two years.
Mayor Daley may even have to lay off Obama.
Dodecadenth?
Anyway. What were people thinking? 510k new claims, mortgage rate UP, equity move up cushions gone, 401k/stock wealth effects evaporated, those meddlesome bloggers...
Just wait until rental rates start decreasing. you think you see a heterodyning system now? When high priced vacancies start going empty for even a few months there will be a series of whole new inventory dumped on the market.
Lock in your real estate investment profits now or be priced in forever.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"Anyone know where one can find the transcript or archived video of the hedge fund testimony? It is being missed by C-SPAN/CNBC for the most part and I would like to catch it later"
EHP, Don't know if anyone answered, but its on C-Span3 Live now;
C-SPAN3 Live Stream - C-SPAN
Just walk for Glod's sake. Buy something cheaper in two years.
Or consider a buy and bail.
Right, JP. Buy-and-bail is not a bad strategy either. But given that housing is going down, taking some time off as a renter would put Kristina in a better situation.
EHP, whoops, they just recessed for 5 minutes. They're saving Soros & Simons for last.
BTW, Simons is a good guy, took very good care of his Medallion investors (me included), and any scapegoating will be ridiculous.
safe as, it was my family home, Mom died and left me a mortgage which I had to refinance after being out of work for a year being her full time caregiver. As a result they reamed me for not having a "work history". I really, really want to save what I have left of my parents at this point. I was also careful not to overborrow on it. It was appraised for 210K 21 months ago. I owe 128K on it.
If I could grow avocados, I would be set. That is living large. I get happy when i get a few tomatoes (the ones the squirrels don't eat off the vines) and some basil. - 12th Percentile
Trade? My "Bacon" varietal is about 6 weeks from maturity (bit late this year). Basil is good on squirrel, no?
RIP Mr. Mitchell. Hendrix's loyal friend and collaborator, following wherever his enormous imagination would fly.
If you have neg equity, it's a no brainer. Live mortgage payment free for a year or so. In the interim, you can either look to rent or buy at 50% off. Make the bank come to you.
What a country.
Nostrovia.
Comrade Kristina, what does it appraise at now?
Vistulian,
I'm watching it via c-span's flash video stream. I like the guests, the hosts seem to confuse their agendas' with the meeting's
taking some time off as a renter would put Kristina in a better situation.
Yep, mostly agree. Just walking = committing to renting for about 7yrs. Probably the right strategy, but depends on personal situation.
Ahhhhh, yah
Ok, coffee kicks in for grassy knoll idea #2846:
WTF if, Treasury is going to use shit collateral from TARP to act as collateral for 40-year mortgage modification, i.e, take the original defaulted shit and put it into the back of the safe and then say it's as good as gold. Thus Treasury says it can back 40-year loans, without issuing a new 40-year bond ... huh, huh.... something like this maybe??? Treasury swaps shit for shit and everybody is happy, because homeowners get cheaper payments which helps with future cash flow and then banks like Wells Fargo, et al, get to dump their shit and swap it for something more liquid and then Treasury simply sits on the HUGE pile of shit for 50 years -- meanwhile, the yield curve becomes more distorted as a result of additional offerings and takes on shapes never seen before, somewhat like The Bart Simpson Trading Pattern, i.e, yah toss in a few 40-year bonds, a few 20-year bonds, re-package the short end, re-engineer this and that, then Obama cuts taxes, more stimulus cash mailed out and then, meanwhile, foreign investors that are already confused, stop investing in America because this is chaos...
More cheery news from Chicago REL:
Aaaarrrrghhh &%#@#%#@#%
RE taxes up 30% and home prices fall.
Street repairs non-existent
10.25% sales tax
Leased Midway
Leased Chicago skyway
Clogged expressways
public parking zoomed in price
meters .25cents per 5 minutes
And Duke Daly wants the money loser Olympics in 2016 and stiff chicagoans with the bill
unemployment numbers not to good today
Kristina, I've been there, and not too long ago.
Your memories are yours forever, and the house is but a house. Turn the page when you can.
Ministry, I don't know. I'm in Florida on the panhandle and of course real estate has gotten pounded here but I don't think I'm underwater at this point. I have just shy of an acre of land three br, 2a bath, stone fireplace, inground pool and Mother in Law apartment.
Big shots at the table.
Dow's on it's midday meander
"Rob Dawg writes:
If I could grow avocados, I would be set. That is living large. I get happy when i get a few tomatoes (the ones the squirrels don't eat off the vines) and some basil. - 12th Percentile
Trade? My "Bacon" varietal is about 6 weeks from maturity (bit late this year). Basil is good on squirrel, no?"
I'd kill for a couple of avocado trees, but we don't have enough sun on our property, even for the dwarfs. Food of the gods, dude.
I do have several four-foot tall basil plants, carefully tended, on the sun porch. I'm going to see if I can make them last through the winter and harvest leaves along the way.
Anak, I know what you are saying and I try to tell myself that but then I look at all the handpainting in the house that Mom did herself and start crying all over again.
I really, really want to save what I have left of my parents at this point. I was also careful not to overborrow on it. It was appraised for 210K 21 months ago. I owe 128K on it.
I didn't read this before my last response, so ignore what I've written.
I wish you luck in resolution. It sounds painful from the outside.
Comrade Kristina, look into an FHA mortgage.
I'm going to become a dad too next month, and i'm looking for useful and inspiring links like that
Echo on the congrats from everyone else. I've got two little ones - one's 2-1/2 and one's 8 months. You have absolutely no idea what it does to your worldview. Generally for the good, though, I promise ...
Prosaic advice, perhaps, but ... pack the hospital bag early and make sure to include your camera with an extra memory card and battery. My wife's water broke for the first one at 2:30am and we ran out of the house without our camera ... for the first 3 days of the little guy's new life we had to borrow her sister's (who fortunately lives just a few miles from the hospital). D'oh!
Oh, and open a 529 account for him or her as soon as you get a SS card issued, if you haven't already. I'm fairly sure the higher-ed bubble will pop well within the next 18 years but, even so, college costs aren't exactly pocket change ... and tax advantages are always nice too.
Best of luck to you!
Thanks you guys, you really are the best. I have a friend that is a realtor and she mentioned FHA as well.
Kristina: I'm no mortgage expert, but I'd be uncomfortable intentionally missing payment without clarity and certainty regarding a write down. Since you want to keep the house, why not see what a refi would look like now instead of waiting until reset? If it would work for you, you would at least know where you stand going forward with this mess.
Brave of you to ask though. You were not treated so nicely here in the past when this was discussed.
Dodd drives me nuts. cspan soap opera. create a frankenstein bailout bill without planning and try to sort out the looting later.
ova: Ponys with Antlers,
To quote Jim Morrison, "No one here gets out alive."
An avocado farm is on my list of what I will buy during The Naked Depression 2 and 1/2 -- The Smell of Fear.
ah haha CSC, you remember that too. If I recall that was Sebastian, wonder what rock he's hiding under about now?
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) -- Mitch Mitchell, drummer for the legendary Jimi Hendrix Experience of the 1960s and the group's last surviving member, was found dead
YouTube - Jimi Hendrix LuLu Show 1969 **FULL**
RIP Mitch. Thanks for the Jazzy beats.
Hold!
HOLD!
Unfortunately, it was reported in April 2008, that the FHA may encounter a deficit in fiscal 2009 (commences in October 2008) due to problems incurred in the agency's portfolio of seller-financed down payment loan program. This portion of the FHA's portfolio, approximately 35% of the FHA's total portfolio, has encountered substantial delinquency and foreclosure rates in recent years even though they are full document, fixed-rate loans.
OT:
The MSM discovers the middle middle-class discovering thrift stores.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/With-economy-unraveling-secondhand-stores/story.aspx?guid={A7F4F125-4211-4D5D-8BF2-3CA0A11E761B}
Where I come from, this is not news.
Anak: Your memories are yours forever, and the house is but a house.
fwiw, I think that regardless of the financing outcome, Anak's words are gold.
If GE falls anymore, will they sell CNBC?
Kristina - maybe get a tenant in the mother-in-law apartment if you love the place and want to keep it.
Gun A is done.
Gun B is close to empty.
If you're gonna be stuck...
Stop it! You're making a choice. A good friend was moaning all the time about being "stuck" in her condo and now she's divorcing. It's a poisonous meme that doesn't lead to a happy life.
Oh, and open a 529 account for him or her as soon as you get a SS card issued, if you haven't already. I'm fairly sure the higher-ed bubble will pop well within the next 18 years but, even so, college costs aren't exactly pocket change ... and tax advantages are always nice too.
Best of luck to you!
Mook | 11.13.08 - 12:08 pm | #
Thanks Mook!
We've already all packed up, including the camera
As I live in Italy, I don't know what a 529 account is! And for now, high schools/universities are almost free here (and private schools are generally worst than public ones).
(Gun B, smoking, reads 30 rounds left.)
They've stopped coming. Yeehaaw!
ades, usually there is a slight decline NSA from Sept to Oct (although last year NSA sales increased slightly from Sept to Oct). A 19% decline is significant and is much much more than the usually seasonal decline.
Best to all.
Elvis writes:
An avocado farm is on my list of what I will buy during The Naked Depression 2 and 1/2 -- The Smell of Fear.
An occasional poster here and on my blog is doing exactly that and getting a great deal. Perhaps he'll share.
Say what you want, Soros appears to have a conscience.
Yeah, 19% isn't reflective. Wait until the October-November numbers come out. I'm guessing 40%.
Free time is great. Babies are great. However, free time and babies don't mix. Every time your baby wakes you up screaming at the top of its lungs, remember how it stole your free time. And your sanity. Good luck.
Currently 40% of loan modifications re-default?
Currently, 40 to 50 percent of all loan modifications are re-defaulting. This is astronomically high and will translate into higher bank losses and lost time for the homeowner to begin rebuilding his or her credit rating.
Loan Modifications | Rain City Guide
JPM last green holdout today, up $.03
CSC-great vid.
Being the code compliance officer and the HOA management company representative for this area shown on the video, this property and it's numerous architectural, health and safety violations, and non-compliance with the Federal livestock registration requirements can now be ameliorated.
Black suburban and weed burners inbound.
I wonder how this one got by us??
Thank you,
Agent On-Topico
Survey sez !!!!!!!!!!!
Who cares.
The U.S.A. is permanently closed.
Please seek other countries for assistance re:
EVERYTHING.
bOoYah
Cordially,
Kilgore
An occasional poster here and on my blog is doing exactly that and getting a great deal. Perhaps he'll share.
Yeah, he says sorry with the little sad grin when he lifts the last piece of rice from your toddler's plate.
Kona,
How trustworthy is that source?
Glodman sucks is gettin a 62 handle
Kristina said,
"ah haha CSC, you remember that too."
I daily doubt that CSC is as stoned as he'd have us believe.
But if so, I am truly envious.
I thought it was the country...
Bulgari Cuts Profit, Sales Outlook on Slumping Jewelry Demand
By Sara Gay Forden
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bulgari SpA, the world's third- largest jeweler, scrapped its forecast for increased profit this year as the financial crisis prompted the world's wealthy to halt purchases of Diagono watches and Elisia necklaces.
With all this taxpayer loot being handed out like goobermint cheese, is anyone else surprised by the silence from the airline industry? Their business models mostly stink, so they should be up their feeding with the other hogs.
Where are they? Don't they want some cheddar?
I'm getting readings, man. They're coming, man!
That's impossible, Hudson, the corridor is clean.
It's no joke, man. They're coming!
crispy&cole writes:
Glodman sucks is gettin a 62 handle
crispy&cole | Homepage | 11.13.08 - 12:17 pm | #
Read my lips: they must DIE
I can't figure how they'll find their way out of this mess, now that TARP won't buy their T.A. anymore as Pualson sez.
LOL anak, ditto here.
More good fat.
their = there (though I did attend a Cal State UG)
Comrade Kristina
In addition to FHA, you might also talk to your current lender. With the current RE situation in Fl, foreclosure is the last option they want. They may even give you a reasonable fixed rate. They do not want another REO. I would start the process yesterday. Keep payments current until you know where you're at.
CSC, the airlines are loss leaders for our imaginary economy. They can't be allowed to fail.
OTR, Saxon (MorganStanley) has a pretty bad rep so far as working with people, I've been reading horror stories about them.
I keep eating pizza and ho hos in the hopes that I too, will become too big to fail...It's not working.
The in the room, man! Shit, man!
Regroup!
REGROUP AT 610!
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
With all this taxpayer loot being handed out like goobermint cheese, is anyone else surprised by the silence from the airline industry? Their business models mostly stink, so they should be up their feeding with the other hogs.
Where are they? Don't they want some cheddar?
That is weird. Maybe they have already become Bank Holding Companies.
Kristina, I highly suggest you lay off the weed, though. They won't do a workout if they know you smoke the stuff. You should switch to crack, they're Okay with that.
ewbie 101 writes:
I do all my gardening in pots.
the_economist | 11.13.08 - 11:50 am | #
I like that idea. More control, right?
Newbie, I dont get as much bugs, I dont have to lean over, I can direct water and fertilizer easier. So, yea,
more control:-)
I live in Florida, which is nice because I have two spring growing seasons. If it gets cold, I just bring my pots in. The only problem is the deer. I have to keep a little fence around my area.
I also have a lot of fruit trees:
Orange/peach/nectarine/apple
The Citi is not sleeping well.
-11%
"As I live in Italy, I don't know what a 529 account is!"
whether you're liable or not for US taxes-- ignorance is bliss and keep it that way. Unless you're going to be stateside for the duration.
Really. Again, from experience.
"I keep eating pizza and ho hos in the hopes that I too, will become too big to fail...It's not working.
Comrade Kristina"
I'd save those ho hos for a rainy day. Unless you plan on hibernating.
oneworldcurrency yogi writes:
"Say what you want, Soros appears to have a conscience."
Simons lays it on the rating agencies; calls for formation of a new non-profit entity to take responsibility for rating instruments.
if this is a world with Low Gas Prices, then baby, give me a world with High Gas Prices
Clip from T Boone Pickens on the Daily Show
Nothing found for 2008 11 Boone-pickens-on-the-daily-show
I keep eating pizza and ho hos in the hopes that I too, will become too big to fail...It's not working.
Why Universal Healthcare won't work in Dopeland.
wow, Eakes from Center for responsible lending is speaking correct data to congress. great to have him on the panel.
My chart for Dow looks pretty interesting as I didn't open my feed until about a half hour ago, it's a straight line down into the abyss...How prophetic.
Elvis,
Who can say, everything gets piggybacked:
Redoing a loan for someone who still cant pay it only leaves the borrower worse off than where he started, said Joshua Rosner, managing director of the investment firm Graham Fisher, and a longtime critic of loan modifications. Early in the downturn, failed subprime lender New Century Financial had loan modification default rates of 50 percent, he said.
Adding to the problem: Restructurings dont work all that well even in the best of times. Redoing loans while housing prices fall means the homeowner could once again find himself underwater, even with his restructured loan, and in a position to default once again.
Before the government launches mass loan modifications, it should be gathering and analyzing redefault rates, to see if the whole thing is worth it, Rosner said. To him, Congress supports loan modifications as a way to let regulators eke out a patchwork of solutions.
Then it can avoid making a bold but controversial move, like creating something similar to the Home Owners Loan Corp., which purchased and refinanced delinquent home mortgages during the Great Depression.
Finally, a Bailout for Homeowners? « The Washington Independent
I ate a ho ho once. Afterwards I regretted it. The thought of how many dudes had been there and what they'd done made me ill. If I fail because of it, so be it. Most don't even allow it anyway.
Now BAC has joined the cliff diving party...but the TARP was going to stop the collapse of the whole system..
Paulson, (John) talking about jobs, tax revenues and foreign investment that his co. provides.
Bullshit.
"Just walking = committing to renting for about 7yrs"
JP, Not if one has cash.
I'd do it if I were single. There is nothing I enjoy more than screwing the man over, legally.
A few examples:
I routinely over pay bills. I mail back many hundreds of pounds of household garbage in those handy little free mail envelopes banks send me. I routinely send fake payments. It costs companies hundreds (if not thousands) of dollars to deal with my ersatz payments for a non-existent fees. I get back my original investment every time. But even if I didn't, the entertainment value of having corporate accountants leave frantic messages is worth it.
CSC, if you added up the cost of water, fertilizer, soil amendments, seed, labor, and amortized land cost you'd realize that your victory garden is a pipe dream. Its cheaper to buy from a local CSA, progressive grocery, or co-op.
Glodman sucks is gettin a 62 handle
When they get back to 53 (maybe today), which was the IPO price, maybe they'll just take it private again.
Now BAC has joined the cliff diving party...but the TARP was going to stop the collapse of the whole system..
I think Hank and the TARP have officially lost the confidence of everyone remaining in the system.
Look out.
Falcone appears to be crying. Maybe he can't sleep at night.
Dodd quoting Roubini...
Eric,
Funny you mention 53 -- that would bring them in line to the declines of Morgan Stanley, which is where they should be
oneworldcurrency yogi writes:
Falcone appears to be crying. Maybe he can't sleep at night.
He's a banker. He's just thinking of a dollar he forgot to steal to get the tears out.
Shrub speaking today on financial markets. That should be good for 30pts off the SPX. Carry on.
squeezed: I am a member of our local CSA. And I think you miss the point about gardens. It's about so much more than could be quantified by a bean counter.
BTW, your cost estimates are not correct.
Pickens plan calls for exploiting the tar sands in alberta. Don't like that part, but his plan does have merit....but for the wrong reasons.
oneworldcurrency yogi writes:
"Falcone appears to be crying. Maybe he can't sleep at night."
Compelling personal bio. Rags to riches.
why does he bother? Is he just trying to cement his Hoover 2 legacy? Dude, face it, it's in the bag. Take the rest of your term off. Please, for our sake.
How is Tanta doing; we need her! Hope she is well!
Random tidbits>
Down Payment Assistance:
Only eliminates seller-funded DPAs
28% default rate on these loans; this is 3 times the default rate on FHA loans without seller-funded DPA
Anyone seen PCA today? If memory serves, he mentioned yesterday that he was going long SPY with a stop at 84.5ish. I wonder if the quick little drop we just had was due to his position being liquidated...
what time does bush speak?
Funny you mention 53 -- that would bring them in line to the declines of Morgan Stanley, which is where they should be
I'll take the under.
CSC.....
MANY thanks for the uplifting video. It's nice to know there are other families that take this seriously. AND, you are 200% correct - nothing like biting into one of your own veggies. Send me your addy, I'll send you a can of our killer sweet relish - award-winning stuff.........
Looks like the extreme closeup was just the side of Bart's head.
Does Pickens think we're idiots? We will never let the rest of the world have the oil.
Griffith is not very politically tuned in - should stop bragging about how big a marekt player Citadel is.
New Post...
C looks to have entered a flat spin. Maybe it flew through Goldman's jetwash.
Zirkin, leadership conf on civil rights is also speaking truth to power. "force them to come to the table." wow and yikes.
Kris - you carry with you the most important things your parents did. What they painted or built is going to flake and fall apart. It's stuff.
You need to prepare for 10-15% decline in GDP over the next three years; a fairly typical aftermath of a major meltdown.
I went through that in Finland as a kid and people lived through it - but they ad to be willing to let go. Those that moved on first were the first to rebuild their credit and find new jobs, etc.
Yeah Falcone pulled the Damon Runyon card. I wonder how he feels about his working class dad's ilk shouldering the tax burden instead of him.
Radian declared some sweeping changes that begin on the 20th. Changes such as "Maximum LTV for Declining Markets will be 90% for all products", "Maximum LTV for Stable Markets will be 95% for all products", "Maximum DTI of 55% for Blue Box Loans (Conforming, 1-2 Unit Owner Occupied.. blah, blah...
Wells is taking a defensive, probably wise, path and saying, "The must close and fund date' for the High Balance Conforming Loan Program has changed from Dec. 31st to Dec. 1st, to mitigate the risk of unsalable loans. Lock Period Deadlines: High Balance Conforming Loan Program loans should not be locked with lock expiration dates later than Dec. 1st." For their High Balance FHA Loan Program, which also expires on December 31st, "these loans must close and fund on or before Dec. 31st. Since the 2009 loan limits may be decreasing from the current 2008 limits... blah, blah...
oneworldcurrency yogi writes:
BBBBBWWWWHHHHHAAAAAAA
Shays now free to stick it to Greenwich.
Beautiful.
Ooh, ooh, please elaborate.
Dow meandered below 8200
A new product Wells Fargo Funding, how nice!
PerformanceWorks
Flexible float-to-current option
The cleaner your pipeline, the better your score.Performance Scores are recalculated quarterly. So you alwayshave the opportunity and great reasons to reach for ahigher benefits level.
rps writes:
Since the banks "own" the mortgages, why is it that the mortgage payee is responsible for the home insurance and repairs and maintenance? And by the time the mortgage is paid off the payee has paid triple the price of the home? Homes are a blackhole sucking down income.
The mortgage system sucks at the teat of the people and should be drowned
rps | 11.13.08 - 11:39 am | #
rps,
I have long made that argument. Based on a 30-yr. note, anything more than 250K is not fiscally wise unless you have waaaaaay more than 20% down.
Thin about it. A 300K home will cost you 2.5X with interest and Princ. only making it 750K. Add in 1.5% for taxes and Mello Roos or whatever you want to call it and that adds another 4,500/yr x 30, which equals 135K. In CA, you have HOAs, which add another 100-200 Month, esp. in the newer more uppity areas, meaning at least another 40-50K, which means you are now looking at anywhere from 900K - 1 million on a 300K note.
OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What is up with that?
If I rent for 2K a month I would get 450 months of rent vs. the 360 on the loan.
In addition, I don't get the headaches of maintenance and yardwork.
Yeah, the thought of putting a blue tarp over my leaky roof in the middle of December at 3 in the morning has me running to get a loan from the bank right now.
People just don't get it. Home ownership is not for everyone and there is no shame in that.
Especially right now. People need to realize that in this economic environment, you need to simplify. downsize, and save wherever you can.
@ CSC you wrote:Gardens and bicycles, dude. Nothing I enjoy more.
What kind of bike? Road or MTB?
Shays, lame duck from Fairfield county, is coming up again soon with the HF panel. With the last panel of experts, he started off with,(paraphrasing)"These guys always told me, 'It's fine, we are the smartest guys in the room'"...
BSR: Done. Your ranch is awesome. That is just what we are planning as well.
Request that FHA offer a 40 year fixed rate mortgage product to
Kona | 11.13.08 - 11:49 am | #
40 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Crikey, I thought the point of the loan was to pay ot off...
in your lifetime, so you get to enjoy living somewhere without big housing expenses.
40 years.
If that's what it will take, I am so out. Rather be bitter renter, than live like that. Either that, or I will wait until I retire and then buy something with cash in the middle of N. Dakota.
Mike in Long Island: My current favorite is a 7 speed beach cruiser. It's got a 40 mile range for me, so it works here. I also ride MTB as well as an adult tricycle. I have my eye out for a vintage Schwinn ATM.
Pssssssssst. Guess who !
there goes 838
CSC - nice. I ride a MTB but mostly on the roads - thinking of making it more road friendly with slicks and maybe aerobars..
Buffett getting ass kicked in down turn, which I have to say is only fair! Gads, about a month ago his primo shares were at $151,650 and today the old bugger is @ $97,000! Wow baby, what about his dividend and future cash flow (Tiny Time asks): Not to worry Tim ol boy, Warren doesn't provide a dividend....
See: Buggery Act 1533
Buggery Act 1533 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Paulson (John, not Hank) making some sense at the Hedggie Hearing
Thought my Nov. Synovus 7.5's were dead in the water. Buy and hold...
Mike in Long Island: There are some awesome road-ready bikes they call 'comfort bikes' out now. They've got fatter tires than road and are more efficient than MTB for city stuff. Very nice.
I also highly recommend those giant bull horn shaped bars. You can sit fully upright and cruise around with the proud look of a rooster on wheels.
OCDAN,
Crikey, indeed! They really need to modify a 15 year loan and reduce the rate, so people can get out of debt someday, versus deeper into it! This reminds me of extended auto loans, i.e, I love Toyotas but some of these cars that are $60,000 tie up people for 10 years, with cheap and easy payments... disgusting!
Glad to see Buffet get his butt kicked.
Shares down more than 33%, good for him.
Everyone thinks he is all that.
I say he is/was/maybe a great investor.
However, stop there. It isn't like he has produced the cure for AIDs or cancer.
Puhlease!
He runs a freakin' holding company. What I'd like to know is how many people he has directly/indirectly shafted through Geico Ins. and other claims that were never paid out?
Also, what about his stake in Moody's? No conflict there now?
And Buffett's admiring flock? As usual they'll be behind the curve. Dominoes fall backward too.
The buyers are looking at the graphs on Zillow, and say to themselves...should I buy on a down trend or should I buy on an uptrend?
OCDan: you da MAN baby!
Ed Towns (D,NY) asking for some free investment advice.
Kona,
That is another part of what made this credit bubble so HUGE!
HOWMUCHAMONTH! That is all people wanted to know.
Well, that is like me a my fantasy.
Let's see, a 50K vette at 7 years with 0% interest. At 84 months, it would cost me $600/month. And that's without full insurance, which would run another $500/month.
Could we swing $1,100/month? Sure, but for 7 years.
People need to think about the cost in terms of the larger picture, not just the monthly.
Then again, even after I own it after 7 years and even during, what is my maintence cost? $200 for an oil change. Ghads! What about a tranny?
And then this. What about GM itself?
people just don't account (pun intended) for all sides of the picture. I realize you cannot account for everything, but it just seems people didn't care.
Well now they are!
S&P now at 823, just a day or 2 from the low of the dot com crash of 776.76 on 10/9/02. This was the mother of all double tops, and that is a VERY significant support level to anyone with even a casual interest in tech analysis. Not a huge fan of Tech analysis myself, but know that there are enough others out there that do pay attention that one has to be aware of it. Also when the technicals like up with the fundimantal story it does make for some good confirmation. Watch the 777 level, if we break it we may have crapped out.
The collapse in CA will accelerate...there are too many people with expensive homes who refinanced at the peak, and are now upside down 30-50% and waiting for the big recovery that will not happen for 20 years. 50% of all mortgages in NV are in the negative. The home ATM credit line is over. Too bad it's all secured debt unlike credit cards- sucks to be them. I'm just happy that we did an 80/20 100% purchase price loan with no refi's. Most of our neighbors refi'd to do their landscaping and buy pools- ouch!
" oneworldcurrency yogi writes:
Ed Towns (D,NY) asking for some free investment advice.
oneworldcurrency yogi | 11.13.08 - 1:03 pm | # "
Cash is king...
A visual metaphor for Buffett
Over FOUR Million Dominoes - It's A New World Record
YouTube - Over FOUR Million Dominoes - It's A New World Record
Mark Souder (R, In) Idiot complaining to
Soros about efforts to legalize maijuana. Get on it, CSC.
kona,
FWIW, my take is this:
"...In other words, in order to "fix" the problems created by sub-prime lending practices, which included such predatory tricks as low-interest teaser rates, 40-year mortgages, and adding balances to the end of mortage loans, all in order to make mortgages "affordable" to borrowers who could not afford them. . . the government is proposing exactly the same thing! This is nothing more than an attempt to prop up housing long enough to kick the can down the road a few years.
Most importantly, this "solution" fails to address the fundamental issue at the bottom of the housing crisis: Negative Equity, which is the primary reason for mortgage default."
Duarte writes:
The buyers are looking at the graphs on Zillow, and say to themselves...should I buy on a down trend or should I buy on an uptrend?
In theory it should not matter which way. Although I would say you don't want to chase the proverbial falling knife. The key ie "be true to thine own self."
In other words, do the numbers work out? Is it cheaper to be a homedebtor than a renter. Is your job secure for the next 10-15 years, minimum, preferably all 30, if the note is that long.
Have you accounted for all costs:
-Principal
-Interest over life of loan
-Taxes (These will go forever, trust me)
-Insurance(s)(Same as above, you always need fire insurance)
-HOAs (if applicable)(They won't go away either, only go higher as the decades roll by)
-Repairs (trust me, you ain't gettin' 35 years outta that water heater)
-Maintenance (mowing lawn for 30 mins. 50 weeks a year here in So. Cal = 25 hours x 30 years = 750 hours, which at a modest $10/hour is $7,500 in lawn mowing alone!)
There is so much more than just paying off the principal.
By George, Dow will go under 8 today me thinks
However, the index does have two major support levels below; namely, the 8,200 and 7,880 levels. If 8,200 is crossed with ease, it will likely drop back toward 7,880 for another tango.
SignalWatch LIVE!
Duarte,
Couldn't agree more about CA. Talked to one realtor/Trump/homedebtor last Saturday. He told me he is upside 100K on one of his 3 bed condo rentals. Ouch! Sucks to be him and can't imagine what he gets for the rental. I am sure he will try yo make up for the loss he is paying on the mortgage.
Tragically, he said everyone in the Rancho Santa Marg area, esp. around the lake was in the position.
Well, I said it for 5 years now and I'll say it again. You can't lend a family making 75-100K a year, 600-700K and expect them to pay it back.
Not a chance and those values can't hold.
600K for a home.
Sure, and when the 30 years is up you will have spent upwards of $2 million. Sure, those homes will be worth that in 2038!
My fanny!
theotherdeb,
Yah, why not, just play the exact same game, and then put new cheese in a new trap and wait for the mice to flood in -- only this time, the trap is being built to hold the mouse for a longer time. I often wonder if this is related to social security budget shortfalls and the concept that Obama spoke of, where we will be asked to work until about 70 -- thus, if you work until your about dead, a 40 or 50 year mortgage would be a nice lure, ehhh?
Kona,
What is scary is that the dow is off more than 41% from it all-time high of 14,160.
Just think about that.
More than 40% in a little more than a year.
Now, adjust the current number for inflation...
Well...
What was it about the lost decade.
We are gonna go beyond a decade, me thinks, when this all plays out.
kona,
Yup. Govt is desperate to preserve the status quo - but the status quo is the biggest ponzi scheme on the planet.
Kona writes:
theotherdeb,
Yah, why not, just play the exact same game, and then put new cheese in a new trap and wait for the mice to flood in -- only this time, the trap is being built to hold the mouse for a longer time. I often wonder if this is related to social security budget shortfalls and the concept that Obama spoke of, where we will be asked to work until about 70 -- thus, if you work until your about dead, a 40 or 50 year mortgage would be a nice lure, ehhh?
Kona | 11.13.08 - 1:22 pm | #
Kona,
I know I can be tinfoil with the best of them, but I have thought this for the last couple of years.
While I saw a bubble building farther back, it was't until I really studied what was going on to think that TPTB want everyone to be a debt-slave.
Just look at the CC forgiveness that didn't get through yesterday.
Sure, we'll spend $700 billion and not tell you on what. We'll bailout everyone, except those who really pay the bills.
Tells you want TPTB really think of "We the People."
Credit Acceptance Corporation
Auto loans are being ignored somewhat and the fallout of cash flow related to this:
FORD MOTOR COMPANY
form10q.htm
As of October 27, 2008, the registrant had outstanding 2,318,003,459 shares of Common Stock and 70,852,076 shares of Class B Stock.
Ford Credit's funding plan is subject to risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond its control. If auction values for used vehicles weaken further or there is continued disruption in the market capacity for the types of asset-backed securities used in Ford Credit's asset-backed funding, there will be increased risk to Ford Credit's funding plan. As a result, Ford Credit may need to further reduce the amount of finance receivables and operating leases it purchases or originates; this reduction could reduce Ford Credit's ongoing profits and adversely affect its ability to support the sale of Ford vehicles
"I'm getting readings, man. They're coming, man!
"That's impossible, Hudson, the corridor is clean.
It's no joke, man. They're coming!"
Is that from Alien II?
OCDan,
You mean
"We the People, in Order to Support Our Betters in the Standard that They Have Become Accustomed, Establish Preference, insure Domestic Tranquility, provide for the defense of the Status Quo, promote the Wealthy, and Secure the Blessings of Subsidy to the Wealthy and their Posterity do ordain and establish this updated Constitution for the United States of America."
Survey of Real Estate Agents Shows 19% Drop In Home Sales From September to October (no link)
It would be nice if we had the % sales drop from September 2007 > October 2007 to compare with.