Charlie Rose: A conversation with Bill Ackman
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 11/13/2008 - 2:25pm (162 comments)
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 2 members and 144 guests online.
Currently online
Recent Recommendations
Another hedge fund manager talking his book. Woo hoo!
It's not bad from a hedge fund manager.
this is the smarmy little wad of somebody's prison bitch who had the unmitigated gall to come on CNBC and tell the world he had stakes a position in FREE and FNM and he had a plan to save the damn thing.
He is a tool. He will be rounded up when the people take over.
I woke up to this guy on CNBC the other morning pitching some hare-brained scheme. Honestly, I can't even remember who the scheme was designed to help, just that he had a scheme to save some-such company that made me think of Ponzi. It wasn't quite a Ponzi-scheme tho, more of an Ackerman-scheme...
I was also struck by how much time CNBC had given him to just out-and-out schill. When I first woke up, I was hearing what sounded like a weekend infomercial and was confused what day it was.
such a delicate creature...
wonder if he is long ABK or WB, again?
I must make note to self, never type when angry.
hoopajoops
Hey, what's in the glass?
Ackman-scheme - oops.
I think he was pitching for Target spin-off a land-holding sub that would collect rent from all their stores. Target paying rent to itself would solve all their problems - or something like that.
Forgive me if that's what this vid is also about. Can't bear to click the thing.
Went for a long lunch and I come back and I found everyone got a pony, hoopjah and a hooker...what happened?
What? No one has any love for a short seller?
i watched this last night - his explanations of some of the finer points of "how we got here" wont be news to anyone here, but it was actually very good for regular charlie rose viewers.
he was a little miffed whan chalie cut him off at the end, cuz he didnt get to drone on and on about TGT for 15 minutes.
I wonder how much cash this guy normally carries in his wallet.
I'm thinking I could take him.
You've got to love Cerberus.
Cerberus Would Cede Profit in Chrysler Sale Under Auto Bailout - Bloomberg.com
They would 'forego any profit.' Give me a break . . . They want to government to make them whole on the massive loss they are sitting on and pass it off like they are doing us taxpayers a favor. These people make me sick.
If I was choosing sides for baseball, he'd get picked last. And he'd get to play only if his mommy got in my face and made me.
OT quote of the day:
The financial straits that the Big Three find themselves in is not the product of our current economic downturn, but instead is the legacy of the uncompetitive structure of its manufacturing and labor force, The financial situation facing the Big Three is not a national problem, but their problem.
-- Sen. Shelby (R-Al.)
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Cerberus Capital Management LP, the
buyout firm that owns Chrysler LLC, would forgo any profit from
a future sale of the automaker should it receive federal
financial aid.
Chrysler also expects that the U.S. government would take a
stake in the company in any bailout, Chief Executive Officer
Robert Nardelli said today at a conference in Palm Desert,
California.
Cerberus founder Stephen Feinberg ``has basically gone on
record saying he would forfeit'' profit on a Chrysler sale in
those circumstances, Nardelli said
LMFAO!! There will be NO PROFIT dipshit!
You know, the Republicans are now going to vote against any bailout (see their comments on the Auto bailout today). It's a no-lose strategy for them and it's going to cause a problem for the big Obama.
Comrade Volker the Viking writes:
If I was choosing sides for baseball, he'd get picked last. And he'd get to play only if his mommy got in my face and made me.
Comrade Volker the Viking | 11.13.08 - 5:52 pm | #
Nope, that kid ran the scoreboard and kept the stats. Couldn't operate the wattle-bottle either.
i dont get it - why the hate for ackman?
he shorted MBIA and ABK YEARS before they started to implode - that takes an iron will.
Greed is what the City represents, said Geraint Anderson, a former banker at Dresdner Kleinwort, whose novel Cityboy a sordid tale of excess and misdeeds in the City of London has become a best seller here. They cheat, they lie, they do all they can to make more money.
Heady Days Gone, City of London Struggles - NY Times
Newsflash.
he shorted MBIA and ABK YEARS before they started to implode - that takes an iron will.
nullpointer
He epitomizes the problem. Until they are all crushed, like the bugs they are, we will not be safe.
Thank God I just took delivery on a new sack of G13.
Praise Jehovah.
ullpointer writes:
i dont get it - why the hate for ackman?
Because I don't believe for one second he has altruistic motives, or even the slightest care about the consequences of which he advocates. Whatever he's in favor of today, he will profit from today. Period.
I'm so disgusted that I frankly don't want to hear from anyone who's made their fortune since 9/11. Irrational, yes. But a more conservative irrationality than his.
Conjure says, "The US economy and the US government is headed for disaster unless wise men and women get busy right now."
"Ackman isn't one of them."
"Sorry."
C'mon; interview Andrew Lahde!
Yo Volker, are you a real Viking?
I didn't know they were still around before you started getting snippy.
when's the next edition of "Conjure's Corner"?
eat Stoli?
"when's the next edition of "Conjure's Corner"?"
Anonymouse, I don't know. He and I have been very busy of late.
Battening down hatches.
been some time since Ive seen a post mp, can we get a conjure clock on that call?
Easy now to see why ackman is so successful. thanks for posting CR.
The clock has run out. We are now in the end game, and the "wise men and women" Conjure talks about had better get it right.
OT--Tonight on the local news, they said unemployment in GA is up 75% YOY. They did not say what the percentage rate for unemployment is. I think last year it was around 4.5 or 5%, so a 75% increase would definately put it around 8%... And things are just getting started.
I'm not snippy.
He and every other (all of them) hedge fund operator should be squeezed into a wall locker, given one dollar apiece and left there for one year. When the door is opened, the two or three who have all the money should be shot. The others will just go away
Not that I feel strongly about this.
hoopajoops
ok, now i am really flippin out....
everyone here cheers as the market implodes day after day....everybody shorts HIG...everybody worships EEV and SRS
...and you ~hate~ on ackman?
the man did his research, deduced that MBIA and ABK were full of shit and geared 100:1, and he called "bullshit"!
whats the problem?
is it his smug little attitude?
mp,
Would we find out if they get it right by Monday?
maybe it is his smug little attitude
One should never brag because one is fortunate.
hoopajoops
Conjure says, "The US economy and the US government is headed for disaster unless wise men and women get busy right now."
Almost certainly too late.
Check this out.
I told you Obama was manufactured.
We're going to enter 2009 with an illegitimate government in the eyes of a large minority.
http://www.debbieschlussel.com/archives/2008/11/exclusive_did_n.html
Combined with a worsening economy and Paulson's implosion of credibility, this is a very bad combo.
Actually, I retract, dude. I want to beat this guy up. I don't even condone aggression, but I think I'd make an exception in this case. Someone needs to pop a douche.
It comes through in a strong and not good way, huh CSC?
Hey, Broward, take a pill man.
In The Know: Should The Government Stop Dumping Money Into A Giant Hole? | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
This is a gem, sorry in advance if a re-post.
We're going to enter 2009 with an illegitimate government in the eyes of a large minority.
Much better than the legal majority of the last 8 years. I'll take my chances.
Don't get me wrong, Ackman is indeed a smooth cat. Watching his CNBC infomercial, err interview, it was indeed obvious how sharp he is. James Bond movie-villain sharp!
Unfortunately that kinda irked me too. Not that I'm dumb, it just reminded me once again that if I had been truly 'smart' I would have played the debt game and secured my place in bailout-line instead of living meekly all these years to stay debt-free.
I mention all this psycho-babble because since I've been following this the past few years it's only been now that I can see a class-war as a real possibility. No longer is it in the realm of tinfoil-hat nuttery. Scary times are ahead. The lower classes are not happy about all this, especially in the South. And we're a very well-armed bunch
World-wide Katrina
He comes across like an SNL actor playing the part of a guy from HBS. Slimy and insincere, sitting there like an anchorman wig on a Pinocchio sex doll. I'd rape him.
They're cooking the frogs on Wall Street today.
don't hate the short guys...they had the balls to do it way before it was fashionable. Sure they act like god's gift to trading and in some cases (like Chanos) they are.
Problem we have is that all of us* get painted with a large brush and are scapegoats for poor management or any risk analysis.
No one told these companies to lever up and keep trading as if it would never drop.....they did. All forseeable and blame should be placed squarely at the feet of the company who operated in such manner.
I have two words for them: F U
Ackman talks book but he's wrote the book on MBIA, MGIC, and several other's well before anyone had a clue.
Ciao
MS
Comrade Volker the Viking writes:
"He and every other (all of them) hedge fund operator should be squeezed into a wall locker, given one dollar apiece and left there for one year. When the door is opened, the two or three who have all the money should be shot. The others will just go away
Not that I feel strongly about this."
Did you watch hearing today; granted some ducked to protect some selfish interests (e.g. tax rates) but you might have found yourself agreeing with alot of what they had to say.
Yeah, MS, rich, and I are going to set up our 'Fort for those Short' to keep you angry mobs at bay!
Congress has a way of making me like hedge fund managers, regardless of what they say and do.
Did someone post this already? I am just now catching up....
Calpers Bought Shares in 112 REITs Prior to Market Collapse - Bloomberg.com
"the man did his research, deduced that MBIA and ABK were full of shit and geared 100:1, and he called "bullshit"!"
... and then proceeded to make a gajillion dollars off of that collapse. No problem with that. God bless him.
It's one thing to predict a collapse. Another altogether to claim you have the plans for reconstruction before the collapse has completed.
Anyone can look at a rusted-out old bridge and reasonably predict that that bridge may soon fail. When it does collapse, what are the odds that same guy can provide the blueprints for it's improved replacement? If he does conveniently have such plans, one might suspect he had a motive to accelerate said collapse...
Second half recovery only 7 1/2 months away.
Sweet!
WSJ.com Economist Survey - GDP Growth Not Likely Until Mid-2009 - WSJ.com
FD: long sarcasm.
"The best banks in the country"
What makes them the best, Bill, Mr. Capitalist?
Best schemes?
Best golden parachutes?
Best collapse?
Best robbery of our labor?
Conjure says, "We need Volcker. He is one of the wise men."
Bond Girl writes:
"Congress has a way of making me like hedge fund managers, regardless of what they say and do.
Did someone post this already? I am just now catching up...."
Yep, but I reassured everyone that the natives will gladly make up Calpers losses.
Do you work in CA munis?
Ackman is a smart dude. That is absolutely true. On the other hand, he bought his hedge fund interest in TGT when it was trading near 70. This man is smart, but you need to hear his vested interests as well.
Greed trumps reason absent a limiting authority.
Nope. But they obviously affect the market.
mp, has conjure written any more reports since the LIBOR one?
Popeye writes:
Ackman is a smart dude. That is absolutely true. On the other hand, he bought his hedge fund interest in TGT when it was trading near 70. This man is smart, but you need to hear his vested interests as well.
Today, TGT closed @ 35.33. 50% loss. Ackman speaks with an interest in mind.
At that, I concede that the man is smart. Just understand from whence he speaks.
"mp, has conjure written any more reports since the LIBOR one?"
Yes, but those are not for publication.
Conjure
I know Volcker seems like a young man to you, from your point of view, but for us humans 81 years of age is getting up there.
The best we should hope for is that Volcker hangs on to life to be consulted semi-regularly.
Bond Girl writes:
"Nope. But they [CA munis] obviously affect the market."
Are you seeing any systemic degredation in value? Sales tax revenue is plummeting (I have some interesting anecdotes) and insurers are calling at least one issuer I know every week. Is this a normal practice? Plus Prop 1A may trigger 8% appropriation by State of ALL local government and agency revenue to make up run away budget shortfall.
The peasants are revoltinggggggg :-
Before Saving the US
Before Saving the US-ChinaStakes.com
The nature of the current global financial crisis is the biggest debt crisis in America’s history. The issuer of the world’s reserve currency, the US has been borrowing for quite a long time without any limit. America’s trade, international payment and fiscal deficits have existed for over 40 years (a fiscal dividend once occurred during Clinton’s administration but deficit soon returned). Statistics show that America’s internal and external debt exceeds $60 trillion, over 400% of the country’s annual GDP of a bit over $14 trillion. Of that total, family debt (including mortgages), financial and non-financial firms’ debt, and municipal and national debt come to about $15 trillion, $17 trillion, $22 trillion, $3.5 trillion, and $11 trillion, respectively, though it is hard to tell how these debts have been split up among foreign governments, financial firms, companies, and individuals.
First a lot of time to J. Dimon, now this guy. What happened to Charlie Rose? He starts off pumping this "...went to Harvard Business School..." Big deal.
TGT has a date w/ 43.75 sooner than later; rejection w/ lighter volume would be a good short.
The peasants are revolting
Yes, they are. Can't stand peasants.
ullpointer writes:
i dont get it - why the hate for ackman?
he shorted MBIA and ABK YEARS before they started to implode - that takes an iron will.
nullpointer | 11.13.08 - 5:54 pm | #
I'm surprised by the attitude also. I think Ackman and Einhorn helped root out the companies that were nothing but frauds.
However, the demographics of the readers here have changed from a year ago. Commenters here now are full of hate, smugness, self assuredness, and schadenfruede for even their own mother. That's why a lot of the original folks have left, or just lurk...it's become as informative as a Yahoo! message board.
Flame away.
Blah blah blah,
AheadofTheCurve, is that you?
mp writes:
"mp, has conjure written any more reports since the LIBOR one?"
Yes, but those are not for publication.
mp
More important, is Conjure thirsty anywhere in the vicinity of Affinity Bank HQ?
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
TGT has a date w/ 43.75 sooner than later; rejection w/ lighter volume would be a good short.
Update your charts, my friend. TGT closed at 35.33 Are you contemplating a rally to 43 ?? If so, I hold shares you need to own at 42.99.
"Commenters here now are full of hate, smugness, self assuredness, and schadenfruede for even their own mother."
I agree that many are.
"That's why a lot of the original folks have left, or just lurk..."
Probably.
"it's become as informative as a Yahoo! message board."
Absolutely.
mp writes:
"Commenters here now are full of hate, smugness, self assuredness, and schadenfruede for even their own mother."
Popeye still loves his mother. The rest of you are at risk.
Popeye,
I meant TGT is heading up to test the high volume high of 10/29 @ 43.75; a rejection of the price (close underneath) w/ lighter volume would set up a nice short, that's all I'm saying here.
"it's become as informative as a Yahoo! message board."
Absolutely.
mp
You haven't visited a yahoo msg board lately. "Word" or "pop" are considered thoughtful replies.
"More important, is Conjure thirsty anywhere in the vicinity of Affinity Bank HQ?"
Rob, we returned from California last week and don't plan on returning there for some time.
Sorry.
as things get worse, i expect more traffic here, folks looking for insight, refuge, trouble. won't be easy maintaining a useful, fun salon, but doable.
Killfile works well on the repeat bigots and crazies.
yes..agree totally with his attitude on TGT, he made his bed he has to deal with it. He went down a notch in my book with his scheme to have TGT pay rent to itself a month or two ago....Einhorn stays "somewhat" quiet but his foray into being a TV star (poker tournament) may end up like Buffet.
There are a few that speak and I listen. Jim Chanos is one.....Jim Roger's is another... Yes they talk book but at least you know where you stand with those two. I learned alot from just listening to Chanos. It's what he doesn't say in the context of a conversation that gives you lot's of clues IMO.
Anyone that names a fund after the greek word for skeptic (kynikos) had better do the research.
Ciao
MS
Plus they went into commodities...
Calpers Bought Shares in 112 REITs Prior to Market Collapse
By Miles Weiss
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The California Public Employees' Retirement System, already hit with multibillion-dollar real estate losses, invested in more than 100 property companies before their value collapsed in the weeks after Oct. 1.
The largest U.S. public pension fund bought shares of 112 real estate investment trusts in the third quarter with a combined value of about $482 million as of Sept. 30, according to a regulatory filing. The holdings are now valued at about $245 million.
Calpers also faces potential losses on its $970 million investment in LandSource Communities Development LLC, a 15,000- acre housing project north of Los Angeles that filed for bankruptcy protection in June. REITs, which had outperformed stocks for most of the year, were at the vanguard of the market collapse that began last month.
sag - Nice job on the NYT-SE btw! Are the Old Gray Lady editors pissed, or secretly pleased?
Vistulian,
Are you also in the muni market?
Not a whole lot is trading in the muni market beyond the higher quality credits. Most state and local governments are discovering their revenue estimates were, shall we say, optimistic. But I think it is going to take a while before this really hits them, especially property declines.
I have not personally heard that about the insurers, did someone tell you that? That sounds rather dramatic.
Dear Self-Persecuted,
I respectfully disagree. TGT has been fully rationalized and will not test 43.75 even in the intermediate term; unless Pershing Square is granted it's wish - in which case all bets are off.
Reality is that 6 months ago, TGT - like all retailers - expended cash to acquire the inventory they hoped would sell. Six months ago, this level of unemployment was not forseeable.
Charts track trends - but we are in terra non-firma - you can't chart earthquakes.
All retailers are at risk - that is just the truth.
Yahoo boards.....
This is my current favorite:
Yahoo! Message Boards - Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
With subject matter like that you can't go wrong
Ciao
MS
last post
hoopajoops
The house you bought for $600,000 a few years ago is now worth $280,000. He said it, now, who was listening?
ova: A Pony Alone writes:
"Plus they went into commodities..."
Why care about risk when your DBP liabilities can be offset by more public contributions (if I'm not mistaken). Who is really at risk here?
@Rob Dawg
Rob, I agree that this place is a step above Yahoo, but the quality has gone down considerably since the "glory days."
I say sincerely that I don't have the time to wade through all of the bullshit to find insightful and thought-provoking comments.
Unfortunately, the bullshit level here has risen dramatically over the past several months.
Having said that, I still visit CR daily to get his thoughts, which are important to Conjure and me.
Popeye,
Don't own TGT or any individual stocks, don't particularly care about its direction. Respect your take, but please give me credit if TGT hits 43.75 before today's low 31.03. It's a poor risk/reward trade at the current price though.
Charlie asks: "When is the housing market turning around" and Ackerman basically says that next Spring the mood will change and that the people who have saved money during the last several years and avoided debt and still have good credit ratings will start coming out of the woodwork to buy.... Oh, wait, how many people are left in America who fit that list of criteria? I'm thinking it's not a lot.
"Six months ago, this level of unemployment was not forseeable."
I respectfully disagree......it certainly was. The problem was that no one really wanted to see it. Now if your argument is based on official #'s than I guess you can see the fallacy of that.
None of the current situation was not able to be seen. We've just had over a year of not wanting to recognize any of it....
Ciao
MS
MS writes:
"Yahoo boards....."
Ouch. That's some standard of comparison.
Sparkle on Bond Girl.
The level of discourse may have dropped because there are less people trading.
The only thing impressing me about Ackman right now:
- his ability and action to confront rating agencies publicly
- his dreamy hair cut
He runs Pershing because Gotham got blown out of the water in 2002. He's says the fund is slightly negative this year
I've got the video on now, so he has 30min to win me over
I have no clue how Calpers let their exposure get so totally out-of-hand, but to continue to invest in RE so late in the game.... Seriously, what were they thinking?
Even if they are not losing their own money, you would think they would worry about their careers. Although I hear the Fed hires people who really know how to bungle risk management.
vistulian-
merely saying we've got a long ways to go before we get to that. On certain days this place resembles it but not consistently.
When we get above 500 visitors it will come back.
Ciao
MS
Here is a statistic from the Savings side of the ledger: Using the 2002 Census data which could be reasonable given the recent stock market crash and excluding Home Equity numbers - http://www.census.gov/prod/2008pubs/p70-115.pdf
Look at Figure 2, ~ 58% of average net worth is outside Home Equity. The average net worth is ~ $187K (page 19) which at 110M households gives ~ $20 trillion and at 58% of non-Home Equity gives ~ $12 trillion. So those two figures compare with a family debt of $15 trillion including mortgages.
Anonymous writes:
The peasants are revoltinggggggg :-
Before Saving the US
http://www.chinastakes.com/story...ory.aspx? id=813
Statistics show that Americas internal and external debt exceeds $60 trillion, over 400% of the countrys annual GDP of a bit over $14 trillion. Of that total, family debt (including mortgages), financial and non-financial firms debt, and municipal and national debt come to about $15 trillion, $17 trillion, $22 trillion, $3.5 trillion, and $11 trillion, respectively,
Anonymous | 11.13.08 - 6:36 pm | #
Ackman may not be a saint, but he's not Mozillo either. A number of whistle-blowers stand to gain if the wrongdoing they charge is verified (False Claims Act Suits), but that doesn't mean they aren't taking serious personal risks, and in many cases doing genuinely good deeds.
CALPERS was buying into REITS in No. VA years ago. I am sure they made good money from it. Who ever was in charge of that got promoted. The problem was they only had that one rabbit to keep pulliing out of the hat. Eventually the rabbit got old and died.
max, thanks! it's a mix of pissed and tickled from what i've heard. managers are trying to hunt down the writers that were involved in the project. not for kudos.
The level of discourse has suffered for a few reasons, one of which is that we all suffer from not having Tanta snap a sharp comment every now and then. She adds a lot on the positive side and keeps fools in line on the bottom. We all wish her a roaring recovery.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
Popeye,
but please give me credit if TGT hits 43.75
Dear Self Persecuted,
If TGT sees 43.00 in the next 30 days, I will give you credit. But that is just my take on TGT.
On a more personal note, I congratulate and hope to encourage your technical commentary.
While we are clearly in uncharted waters, folks have been saying that for a very long time. You hold my respect.
"We all wish her a roaring recovery."
Absolutely. Conjure and I miss her a lot.
MS, I agree about Chanos. He is a smart man. He was on CNBC this morning. Did you happen to see him?
My guess is a lot of people made money and secured themselves a safe spot in the world by buying real estate, etc. It worked, and made people a lot of money. They were not especially brilliant. Just lucky with timing.
Now the world is changed. They know nothing else other than rely on wshat worked before. It has to work for them. Anything else is unexceptable.
I hold shares you need to own at 42.99.
Popeye
If anybody wants any at $40.00 let me know - I'll need a few minutes after market opens to accomodate, K?
He's drinking scotch, neat, in that video.....
serf alan greenspend writes:
max, thanks! it's a mix of pissed and tickled from what i've heard. managers are trying to hunt down the writers that were involved in the project. not for kudos.
serf alan greenspend | Homepage | 11.13.08 - 7:00 pm | #
Even the 'advertisements' are quite good. Read the comments at the bottom of the stories....some of them don't understand it's satire.
The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia
Bond Girl:
"I have not personally heard that about the insurers, did someone tell you that? That sounds rather dramatic."
Yes, very credible source. Granted its only one data point, but a pretty typical local issuer. I thought it was strange too, so thanks for sanity check. This issuer is cutting budget 5% - 10% before end of year. Normally they receive $500K a year from State for their share of new auto registration fees; this year just told it will be zilch (consistent with GM's stock collapse). Plus if Prop 1A is triggered, the squeeze will really be on.
The odd thing is that CA IT muni funds have held up better than ST Corporates. I'm wondering how long that can continue as I have major asset allocation issues to consider. hence my queries.
Thanks for any comments and apologies to the rest.
Don't kid yourselves, the G20 meet has a propaganda push. Bet against it if you like. But the rich rule.
Kinda funny how Paulson killed the market today only to have his boss sing a song, and all became well as every f'g thing bounced.
"Look world I'm Prez of the USA and I can make it better."
Me thinks the USA will have a tough time at the G20 meeting. Lots folks feel that the US brought on this mess and now wants the world (and taxpayers) to pay for the bobo. Would not think twice if Frenchie leaves early.
My guess would be that many of the people that were on this board for a long time have made boatloads of money. I imagine them sipping cocktails in some exotic location hiding from this mess.
I'm still advocating for a paid newsletter called "Calculated Rich". If I could get rich's comments monthly in one PDF I'd pay for it just like I do CR's
Throw in some comments from Conjure Bag and Dryfly and maybe some truck repair tips from Cobradriver and I'd be all set. Plus a monthly squirrel recipe.
Nemo, can you automate that?
Paulson being grilled on NPR Lall things considered"
Resort plans nude anything goes party
| Reuters
Resort plans nude "anything goes" party
CANBERRA (Reuters) - An Australian holiday resort will hold a month-long, nude "anything goes" party to combat an expected economic downturn, media reports said on Thursday.
"Tough economic times call for stiff measures," Tony Fox, the owner of the White Cockatoo resort in Mossman, in tropical Queensland state, told the Courier-Mail newspaper.
"It will be a hedonism resort, where CR's Elvis will entertain guests...
Is it my imagination, or was Ackman wearing eye shadow?
CSC...be careful of the Vikings. They set sail to rape and pillage. Wait, that really sounds a lot like our current form of government. I was Viking-d by Hank and Co. Did not even get a reach around. Screwed....again.
Does "nail in the coffin" sound appropiate?
Troubled US carmakers General Motors and Ford Motor have been given a potentially devastating vote of no confidence by three big European credit insurers, which have removed cover from their suppliers.
The withdrawal of credit insurance which covered suppliers against the risk of the car companies failing has previously hastened the demise of a string of European companies, with suppliers to retailers and construction companies finding cover increasingly hard to come by
European Insurers quit covering Ford, GM suppliers
Morocco Bama,
Take comfort in the fact that Ackman bought TGT near 70. His fund has lost almost half.
Take comfort in the fact that Ackman bought TGT near 70. His fund has lost almost half.
He tells Charlie he's "slightly" down for the year.
12th Percentile | 11.13.08 - 7:12 pm
No truck tips tonight,sorry.
I will say I have been looking up the adresses on larger homes/properties listed on the MLS on the counties site to see tax costs. I live in a relative small county. The amount of listings with back taxes due is fucking staggering. North of 25% of non short sale/FC listings have at least a year and some have 4 or five years due.
So far the biggest discount I have found that hasn't sold was a sale in 05 for 605k,now listed for 159k. The listing needs work,but not that much...
After the snowbirds bail in spring the market is gonna get interesting.
Chris
Morocco Bama,
Check the facts... Pershing Square, Ackman's Hedge Fund, bought TGT back in January. At the time, they were hyping the benefits of selling TGT credit card receivables. I can provide detailed links.
mp - good to hear from you and Conjure. Please give him my best.
While Ackman may not be a wise man - there is a quote in there which I found to be interesting about the US govt off balance sheet assets.
By I agree. Volcker is needed. And he is needed NOW - not on Jan 21.
Who would be another wise man in Conjure's opinion?
Baca, can't enlighten everyone. i was just a cog in the wheel in the project. all we can do is keep plugging away! i like these comments the most -
The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia
Vistulian and Comrades
I would also be interested in citations to insightful commentary on the prospects for California Munis. . .
My sense is that there is a close race being run between the likelihood of a default crisis and the prospects of a major federal fiscal stimulus plan (mega New Deal II) that would fund state and muncipal projects as well as national projects. . . and even that might not save the Munis.
It is a field I'd like to learn more about.
Reading suggestions, anyone?
Popeye, I'm not disagreeing. I was just pointing out how he downplayed his negative position. I have no love lost for him.
He has a valid point about the short selling. They knew it would crush the Hedge Funds. Somebody wanted to crush them who didn't have skin in the Hedges.
New thread
joe shmoe writes:
"My sense is that there is a close race being run between the likelihood of a default crisis and the prospects of a major federal fiscal stimulus plan"
Not sure that future stimulus will support pre-existing munis, except possibly in most indirect way that will have very long lead time.
joe shmoe,
The mega New Deal II as you called it, will be no where near as large. It will also go towards projects that already had the preliminary planning done, thereby expediting the work and freeing up local cash both of which are desirable.
The biggest problems amongst munis are the pensions. After that there are many variations but there are issues with undertaking "hedges" they didn't understand, decreasing tax base, increasing costs, and more expensive costs of funding on average.
2 quick places to start:
- those with large bond offerings scheduled (eg pennsylvania struggled a couple weeks ago)
- those who have issued pension obligation bonds
The rest may or may not be so easy to uncover
ew thread
Wow. Just finished the video and this thread. Didn't know this guy from a hole in the ground, but got the feeling he was being positioned for a big political/government position with all the "explain this to our listeners" items. He comes off very clear, concise, understandable and reassuring to idiots like me. My shock, then to so much negative commentary in the thread, was an awakening. (The "he sucks" and "he's too sweet" comments excepted--just how many teenage boys post on here now?) Thanks to (most) for the perspective.
ok, i will stir the pot some more:
someone above mentioned ackmans lack of "altruism" - ya ~might~ wanna peep this:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ackmans-winning-bets-against-mbia/story.aspx?guid={FE2A0B83-4C2C-42A2-9B65-FB24A94D892C}
i am very surprised by the hypocrisy on this subject; makes me re-evaluate this place a little.
Agree with him on GM, and the automakers.
Morocco Bama,
The facts I offered were only intended to afford some perspective. As it happens, I focus on retail, and TGT has been in my sights for quite some time.
On the other hand, I will not criticize the advice Ackman gave TGT mngmt. Had TGT not sold 1/2 of their credit card receivables, they would be sucking gas today.
Ackman is a very smart person. His opinions should carry weight.
I agree, Popeye, he does say a number of things which have merit. I haven't read the comments in this thread, so I have no idea what's been said about him.
Ok, nullpoiinter, I think we're on to something here--the charitable donation bit fits in perfectly with the "going into public service" aroma I smelled during the interview....
cobradriver (and liz)
My wife was talking to a client today who was considering buying property in south beach. I've never been there but obviously have been reading about the troubled Fla market. My first thought was, "I bet cobradriver would have some good advice". Do you?
My take was that South beach proper probably is holding value better than the rest of the state but that if i was inclined to buy there I would spend some time there now getting to know the place and plan to buy in a year or three.
I disagree with him that we've turned the corner, and I'm not confident in the new administration, like he is. He does sound like he's politicing, in that regard.
Shoppingaround, I agree. I was listening to the hedge fund managers testifying today. I noted that they sound like they are a heck of a lot more responsible in doing their due diligence than many managers with buy and hold strategies.
I don't understand the hate.
Japan is loaning 100 billion to IMF
Wow, when you guys start poking eyes you really gouge.
I would support Ackman's position, great price discoverer. In an opaque system this is great for the market. Gotta have steel balls for some of it, but hey, risk, reward, receipt, repeat. I simply can't get some kind of latter day calvinist thing about shorts, nor morality, and frankly, I was surprised that Ackman went long on TGT.
As to the wise man meme, why vest this expectation in the guy? He's a trader in mid career, making money, successfully so far, could go belly up on a bad bet at some point.
mp - gotta disagree with your framing of this, respectfully and humbly.
CC
12th Percentile | 11.13.08 - 7:50 pm
I don't know South Beach. I do know this. The high end has just started to give way. The biggest part of the crash so far are the properties that went from 30-100 to 100-300k.
If they are not in a huge hurry they will not miss anything waiting a while longer. Inventory is piling up. Homes are selling,just mainly the cheaper/affordable ones in my are.
BTW...My personal definition of affordable has changed over the last 6 months. I am going much bigger on the acreage...
Chris
Just finished the interview and haven't read the zillions of comments above (which has the effect of damping my enthusiasm for adding to the pile, you?).
I like the contrast between these 2 practiced figures seeking the public limelight: one with a glass of water and in no need of hair color and Charlie (who should file for bk and merge with a younger nubile non-paper shuffler)...who is past it.
Bill should review the WSJ article that documents the HF manager remuneration where it honored the top dog who pulled $1.7B (the report documented the top 100..IIRC and twas outrageous even by CEO stds)...if that doesn't pin his ears back, consider the import of the Finance industry taking the lion's share of all business profits (until recently ~40%).
Unfortunately I bet Bill gets more business for his HF and Charlie gets more hair color, facials and paper to shuffle.
Charlie....that's us isn't? the trampled client about to be put out to pasture.
cobra
thanks. I look forward to that post in 2011 with pictures from "Cobradriver Manor and Pastures".
Ackman is one of the good guys I agree, and made money for his investors by being right, nothing at all wrong with that. However I think he is wrong, or at the very least extremely early with TGT. The US savings rate is in the process of going back to where it used to be, about 10%, from where it has been recently, under 1%. Well go back to basic multipliers 1-mpc =mps the multiplier is 1/mps so if mps rises from .01 to .1 you have a 10x reduction in the multiplier. Slows the economy big time. The consumer has to cut back, and cut back hard and for a long time. Yes target should be a suruvivor, and a lot of compitition will be knocked out along the way, but still to upper middle class and discretionary oriented. people will spend on what they need, not what they want. WMT much more geared to what is needed than TGT, but even they are warning. He may eventually be proved right on TGT, but he should have a much better chance to buy it in July or Sept.
Ackman gets mucho credit from me for publishing his Open Source Model which listed estimates of the losses for every individual CDO insured by MBIA and Ambac, and so allowed a calculation of their expected losses. Excel spreadsheets, no less.
As a proponent of Open Source in software development, I was thrilled by the application of this technique to financial valuation. Shame no-one seemed to believe him at the time, or take him up on the challenge to update, or provide alternative models.
Complaints of "talking his book" is a cheap way of saying someone is an advocate for a point of view. So what. It's when companies refuse to say what they're doing (Porsche?) or even talk opposite to what they're doing (coughGScough) that I get pissed off.
Ackman gets lots of slack, even if he doesn't pass mp's "wise man" test. Hell, all respect due, even mp is more secretive!
Thanks CR, interesting interview.
Ackman is a trader and the media seems to find anybody connected to the financial sector for advice and feedback. Maybe our economic problems are just a little beyond the economist point of view, Wall Street Traders and other financial salesman who consider themselves a financial advisor.
Ackman is a shill for the power of Wall Street. He is part of their PR campaign. Charlie Rose does not put him on unless the powers of Wall Street give him the thumbs up. The solution is to let Wall Street die without taking trillions from the taxpayer. A shill.
Shill, Shill, Shill. CR you are either a fool or one of them. Shame on you.
We're all traders now....the vitriol on his success is troubling, this is one of the guys that forced all of the lying corporate managements to fess up....
Exactly Clyde. I don't understand the vitriol either. Folks like him and David Tice and others are the ones who are the best at due diligence. They're not the cheerleaders and pollyannas who refused to see what was happening over the past several years. I mean, he's 180 degrees from Larry Kudlow.
thanks for the video.
For those not aware, once Ackman's monoline insurer shorts paid off big time, he publicly stated that he had made more money than he could ever spend and was giving the rest to set up a charitable foundation. Seems that the guy is a mensch, not a shill.
Men like Ackman would not be needed if the system were transparent. Considering the economic circumstances we find ourselves in, it's not surprising folks are angry.
It was the Harvard MBS that got us into this horrendous mess, but it will be the Land Grant Guys and gals that will get us out.
Don't know much about Ackman's background, but the video did not offend me too much. A bit smug, but then what do you expect from these wall streeters? I thought he explained credit default swaps pretty well. His defence of hedge fund manager profits seemed like BS to me. Wall street as a whole needs it's wings clipped, but in my humble opinion it's a mistake to focus on individual players absent obvious misconduct...
Ackman... Ack, man... hmmmm...
Ack! Any relation to Bill the Cat?
Check this comment and post below (markets in asia are very predictable. You can know the price of tomorrow easily)
"
Post below shows how to predict tomorrow price (in asia). It is so simply a child can do it! I also did not know that we in the US could trade asian markets via a secret asian future market.
Details below.
MarketWarnings: Asian Stock Market Prediction (Tomorrow's Price)
I like some of this guys solutions. I don't agree with his outlook. His ideas about rescuing these companies make sense. Not only should liabilities been used to recapitalize FNM and FRE, they should have been used to recapitalize the banking system as well. I believe there is a huge smoke screen about the US banks, especially the big NY banks and GS and the brokers that has been blown to cover how insolvent they are. Most that have been around awhile say both Chase and Citi have been broke for so long that it isn't funny, yet they allowed both to pose as if they had something. In any case, the only money that exists to pay the depositors off is in the accounts of the depositors. The exponential growth of credit far exceeds the exponential growth of the economy. Ackerman is looking backwards and has no clue as to the grip that debt has on the economy. He also doesn't own up to the amount of earnings attributed to credit, which is about all of them.
Listen, Doug Noland with Prudent Bear has been writing quite accurately about FNM, FRE, MBIA and Ambac for 8 years or more. Doug is a local economist here in Dallas and it wouldn't take a rocket scientist to have figured that out in Ackermans seat. I am sure most on Wall street are familiar with Doug. He has testified before Congress and addressed some pretty heavy conferences. Go to PrudentBear and go to the commentaries. You can go back to 2000 and read all about it. Your view on the 1990's will change and about the entire economic game. You won't be bullish on the market.
So the problem with hedge funds is the government took away their shorts.
And, the solution to insolvency is to use the bankruptcy process to cut out current equity holders and turn the new leaner more efficient company over to the creditors... except for AIG or (having learned from Lehman) anyone holding counterparty risk. That's different. Got to protect those creditors if we want lending to begin again.
Let's hope the PNV of that future taxes cash flow is actually worth more than the 10 trillion in debt like he said. We'll be selling the national forests next.
Too much happy talk. Even if low cost retailers like Target and Walmart do well because the entire middle class can't afford shop anywhere else how does that make for a strong economy or a basis for growth?
He's clearly a smart guy, made a lot on the way up, keeping losses to a minimum on the way down and moving into bottom feeding investment scenarios that perform well while Rome burns. I mean it's one thing to use shorts as a hedge, it's another to go long failure without a counterbalancing bet on success.
As for the auto industry... They've been stacking the deck in their own favor, refusing to innovate and getting trounced by the imports... Bankruptcy seems appropriate. Though new management might not be enough. A new business model is more like it.
But really, in this climate just who should creditors (or governments) be lending to? And whose model do you use to price risk in today's markets?