LA Ports in October: Export Traffic Below 2007
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 11/14/2008 - 6:20am (97 comments)
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Nemo?
Where's Nemo?
barges, we don't need no stinking barges.
Now off-topic carryover from prev thread~~
Q for accounting types:
Is there some tangible benefit in accrual accounting for automakers reporting earnings of a car that has 7yr/0% financing, over one that just discounts the principal value
So the EU has announced that the Eurozone as a whole is in recession. First time since the new currency went into circulation.
About time?
I've said it before, this economy needs to stop cliff diving before it hurts itself.
Nostrovia,
I blame china.. they should have extended the Olympics to a year long event.
Ahahaha... Yahoo finance is carrying adverts for Progresso Soup. I guess thay couldn't let Campbells get the jump on them for long...
MS Said:
I'm with you I don't think they ever let the breaker trip unless someone steps out of line....highly unlikely though. If it does happen it certainly won't be before Jan. 20th that's for sure.
My contention that the circuit breakers will never get tripped has nothing to do with a nefarious "them" doing or not doing anything.
I just think they picked too wide a margin, and since they only reset from percentage to points once a quarter, the margins are way wider now.
Personally, I think circuit breakers are stupid. If people want to buy (or sell), let them buy (or sell).
Lord help California if the actors go on strike.
Negative outlooks for:
- real estate
- advertising
- aerospace
- shipping
- venture capital companies
- biotech financing
Have I not just covered the majority of primary private employment in California?
Containers for the homeless.
I'd like to know where the jobs are going to come from in the next 'expansion phase'.
Not much talk on that. Without jobs, I don't know how we put "floors" in the housing market, imports, etc.
Maybe the infrastructure programs that are being tossed around make these jobs?
Or maybe the job discussions are for later - after they put out the fires?
EHP,
"Have I not just covered the majority of primary private employment in California?"
Yep, about covers it.
Nostrovia,
EHP;
Not simply California's problem: Mostly LA, Vancouver, and the many localities that have been trying get some of the business with tax subsidies.
Wow, does that mean better air quality due to less trucks on the road, less manufacturing and burning of fossil fuels?
friardaddy writes:
I'd like to know where the jobs are going to come from in the next 'expansion phase'.
Prison guards.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Have I not just covered the majority of primary private employment in California?
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.14.08 - 9:47 am | #
You forgot swimming pool and yard maintenance...
The PPT is always looking for help.
rps,
The air quality in SoCal is substantially, and I mean massively, better than in 1980. Even though population and traffic have climbed through the roof.
Nostrovia,
Recently Exiled Gerkinov writes:
Containers for the homeless.
If housing were not so overbuilt, the homeless could build me a cabin to drop on undeveloped land out of the disused shipping containers
Eric-
With the amount of shit assets all of them have...and the need to generate cash to meet redemptions and generate some sort of yield...no margin is wide enough IMO.
It's totally controlled by the primary dealers....yesterday (and other days like it) make it obvious to anyone. '
I don't like to use the "they,them" mantra however it's just so obvious that it gets walked up and down at the whim of a very few quant. box algos. If and when someone decides to not "play ball" we will get a cascade...whether or not it's of the magnitude to trigger it remains to be seen.
If it were a free market we would have had several already IMO. But it would have created capitulation and we would be much better for it. Not saying the fundies will have improved but some of the excess will have been rightly taken out of the system instead of being allowed to create a larger more nefarious problem that we face at this point.
Ciao
MS
Government needs money, banks need money, companies need money and consumers need money, Must be time to RE-LEVERAGE
GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
C is negative
I is negative
G ( Federal is up, but I guarantee states will be down significantly )
(X-M) is better, but still negative.
I guess the question is how MUCH GDP falls not if it will fall.
OT: Just got an email from Capital One showing me how I can keep $1,500,000 FDIC insured with them.
Individual\tCapital One, N.A.\t$250,000
Joint (2 owners)\tCapital One, N.A.\t$500,000
Individual\tCapital One Bank (USA), N.A.\t$250,000
Joint (2 owners)\tCapital One Bank (USA), N.A.\t$500,000
Total Amount Insured\t$1,500,000
agree with Misean....I remember days on end where you couldn't see the mountains in the San Fernando valley and it's not that far across.....10 maybe 12 miles at the widest...
This went on for years in the 70's and 80's. It is better now.
Ciao
MS
Reformed Dope Brontide,
We're headed down the Japan path. GDP will stay up there, at the expense of massive spending on the order of multiples of annual GDP over many years (assuming no interruption by a currency collapse)
liz (from last thread)-
Investment borrowing only if the bank will turn over it's dead inventory at a 50% haircut. IOWs- no borrowing:)
The End Of Wall Streets Boom - News Markets - Portfolio.com
His dinner companion in Las Vegas ran a fund of about $15 billion and
managed C.D.O.s backed by the BBB tranche of a mortgage bond, or as
Eisman puts it, the equivalent of three levels of dog sh*t lower
than the original bonds.
FrontPoint had spent a lot of time digging around in the dog sh*t and
knew that the default rates were already sufficient to wipe out this
guys entire portfolio. God, you must be having a hard time,
Eisman told his dinner companion.
No, the guy said, Ive sold everything out.
After taking a fee, he passed them on to other investors. His job was
to be the C.D.O. expert, but he actually didnt spend any time
at all thinking about what was in the C.D.O.s. He managed the
C.D.O.s, says Eisman, but managed what? I was just appalled.
People would pay up to have someone manage their C.D.O.sas if
this moron was helping you. I thought, You prick, you dont give a
f*ck about the investors in this thing.
Joe the Plumber is looking for support:
Page Not Found
I have a friend whom is an officer on a commercial ship. Traffic is down so much that his company has decided to scrap his vessel rather than do a scheduled maintenance next year (it is a smaller, older ship). He'll take quite a pay cut switching ships.
This is inflationary, right?
Personally, I think circuit breakers are stupid. If people want to buy (or sell), let them buy (or sell).
Eric
Hey, didn't they really help Pakistan? NOT!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Thanks, CR. Cyanide Capsule....meet Morocco Obama.
Blue skies ahead.... put on a happy face!!!
Two analysts on CNBC were arguing over whether to be in small caps or large caps, while one of them was postulating that we'll be here in 3 months learning that we've already hit a bottom (ie. 7,700). Too many people are still too bullish and this is reflected in the pricing imo.
As someone recently mentioned, hang in there, gravity works.
For those expecting a large rally (ie Dow +10k), I'm interested in knowing what factors would allow this market higher. I just don't see anything sustainable.
Today's London Banker, on topic:
London Banker
MS,
Just on the patio looking across the Valley sipping coffee. View to northern range is clear as a bell.
But as an asthmatic I actually feel it.
Gonna go for a run here shortly. I haven't had to worry about air conditions before doing that in years.
Nostrovia,
People don't have "con artiste" tatooed on their foreheads.
I suggest the horrified dinner companion drop this CDO guy as a friend/acquaintance. Sounds like he was too dumb to even know he was a con artist.
For those expecting a large rally (ie Dow +10k), I'm interested in knowing what factors would allow this market higher. I just don't see anything sustainable.
Well, Wednesday night INTC shit the bed, and look where that got us.
For those expecting a large rally (ie Dow +10k), I'm interested in knowing what factors would allow this market higher. I just don't see anything sustainable.
GiezCubed
Crashing the dollar is all I can think of.
Why rally?
Why not?
Dow to 10,000 will happen - but not because of any 'real' fundamentals. It will be because there are many out there who simply "WANT" to believe its the bottom.
Panglossian is the best word I can think of to describe the reason.
London Banker--read some of it. Beyond scary.
Re: China
I heard of riots in ghuangzou last week, due to "undisclosed" reason
Who really knows what's happening there?
Comrade Dope, I'm a runner, also. The freaks in my subdivision contract the chemical companies to drench their yards in poison which lingers in the air....forever. We have a toxic mini-atmosphere in our subdivision filled with the noxious, poisonous gas. Half the time I have to pull my sweaty shirt over my face to act as a filter. If people only knew the history of the shit they're having poured on their pristine lawns, they might think twice. It's freakin Mustard Gas with a minor molecular change. Funny thing is, they're never on their lawns...their all inside updating their Myspace Accounts, or watching Desperate Housewives. It's an insane world we live in.
--
Important thing to note, as far as CR is concerned, is that no severe recession in the cards. Economists have learned the tricks that allow them to prevent anything more than mild recessions.
Jas
Dow to 10,000 will happen
As others have said - stock market likes layoff news; thereafter consumer spending collapses and reality comes back hitting hard.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Recently Exiled Gerkinov writes:
Containers for the homeless.
If housing were not so overbuilt, the homeless could build me a cabin to drop on undeveloped land out of the disused shipping containers
That's awesome ... and I already have the cinder blocks to put it on.
Just a few months ago, the level that was to be preserved was 12,000.
Now the desperate target is 9000.
Yes, whoever said it, gravity does eventually work.
I have tp go pretty soon. I need to prepare for my Knights of Malta Initiation. Serf's talked me into joining. I'm not crazy about the getting naked part, but I've been promised the ladies at the orgy are every bit as beautiful as those in Eyes Wide Shut. Should be exciting, but having a hard time deciding on the mask.
Closed malls can be flipped into low income housing OR retirement complexes for the baby boomers
glonderengel:
bwahahaha!
Nah, all the empty Fla high rises will be used.
Yeah, they just don't call a spade a spade, Jas. That's real tough.
Is this really necessary?
American International Group plans to pay out $503 million in deferred compensation to some of its top employees, saying it must tap the funds to keep valuable workers from exiting the troubled insurance giant.
Why do all these orgies only involve beautiful women? Where are the handsome studly men?
Well, I'm one of them, Liz, but I can't speak for the rest.
So if we use shipping containers for shelter we'd then refer to the Baltic Dry Housing index?
Hmm.. reminds me of:
"My name is Ned Foley, I am 35 years of age, I am divorced.. and I live in a van down by the river"
Curious writes:
Is this really necessary?
American International Group plans to pay out $503 million in deferred compensation to some of its top employees, saying it must tap the funds to keep valuable workers from exiting the troubled insurance giant.
No, it's not. The Merrill critters bitched and moaned about their rentention offers from BoA, doing the usual "we'll take our books elsewhere" bleating.
When push came to shove, 90% said "OK, I'd rather have a shitty bonus/salary than no bonus/salary".
For the n00bs, shipping container homes:
YouTube - Shipping Container Homes by Container City
Nostrovia,
Any guesses on where we'll end up today? I say 8,350.
Morocco Bama writes:
Any guesses on where we'll end up today? I say 8,350.
Morocco Bama | 11.14.08 - 10:17 am | #
10,000
oh wait you was talking of layoffs wasn't you?
Whether or not we rally will depend on how much money the people who "want" the market to rally have. If we are really in deflation, there simply won't be enough money to inflate the stock market sufficiently.
Sun laying off 5,000 to 6,000.
That's gonna leave a mark
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged Friday to work closely with other central banks to fix global financial problems and left open the door to a fresh interest rate cut to help brace the sinking U.S. economy.
Bernanke flunked remedial economics
My neighbor is a transport. broker. He told me they are sending empty containers back to China in many cases. Not because they want to but because they have to. Only so many containers to go around.
Do you think this has been priced into the market yet?
Hedge Funds Anxious as Redemption Deadline Looms
Hedge Funds Anxious as Redemption Deadline Looms - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com
Eric writes:
No, it's not. The Merrill critters bitched and moaned about their rentention offers from BoA, doing the usual "we'll take our books elsewhere" bleating.
When push came to shove, 90% said "OK, I'd rather have a shitty bonus/salary than no bonus/salary".
I heard two interviews with H.Paulson yesterday: one on NPR's ATC and one on PBS's NewsHour. He kept talking about how the TARP funds were being applied to stabilize the financial sector.
I think he means that the TARP funds are being applied to stabilize wages in the financial sector!
I wanted to scream at the NPR interviewer to get tough, but of course, he didn't.
Possible good news: We may be saving or money now.
re: +10k Dow...I could see the artificial rise, ie Sovereign buying/promises and news of salvation "popping" us up in the short-term, but short sellers would make a killing on the downside as long as the upside positioning was solid.
So the stock mkt has decided today that bad is bad instead of good?
Oh, wait, nothing counts until the last 5 minutes.
Re: Dow
All I need to know about the rationality of the stock market is the move yesterday.
Hey, we broke a 5 year low! This seems like a great time to buy!
Want to see how that works come February...
Ministry of Truth - Why didnt they mention Gift Cards? These are now insured too.
Could you someone please tell me if the short selling is still banned in US?
(In Italy it is).
YSLP,
Thinking the same thing.
Did Kuwait reopen their mkt?
EHP was making a good point on the prior thread. It sounds to cool to say how bad retail declined. yet, you have to look at the sectors, plus factor gasoline prices.
That ugly number will continue into the next quarter(s) but for different reasons I think. The MEW/CC changes will become even more apparent. Also, the last 3 weeks is when the layoffs began to gain momentum.
Chinas exports are also begining to feel it. Emphasis on last quarter. Shipping, and everything else, will really begin to show it in the next few months.
If the auto industry shuts down in this country then I think cliff diving for all of the above will take on new meaning.
What you expect, more manna from heaven? Yearly industrial production cannot even cover yearly imports into USA.
50-60 percent of those outbound containers are empty pretty much month after month, main export article being "Hot air from LA". That is much worse situation than even in Italy or Spain.
Reaganism pretty much did the same for US what thatcherism did for the UK. Both are hollowed out empty shopping mall economies with way too small industrial base underneath.
Yeah, let the Asians do the dirty industrial work while we westerners study crap like social sciences or take acting classes. That is the sure way to success!
The cut-throat competition almost in every sector from Asia will ensure it is going to be really hard to rebuild that base. It requires massive attitude change towards industrial work and engineering in general. Engineers are next to god now.
LawyerLiz asked: "Did Kuwait reopen their mkt?"
I think they were to be closed until the 14th.
Question? What are the chances the same houses that traded the aforementioned BBB Tranches(sitting on negative assets) are trying to prop up wall street with the same invisble dollars that supported the subprime bonds to begin with?
The Lewis Article, while lengthy, will course its way through the channels and end up in mainstream just as Whitney herself did....
The market may just collpase.. I think while not trying to be appococylptic "the END" and its supporting evidence, is a rather articulate look at where we are and exactly how we got here....
The End Of Wall Streets Boom - News Markets - Portfolio.com
" But he couldnt figure out exactly how the rating agencies justified turning BBB loans into AAA-rated bonds. I didnt understand how they were turning all this garbage into gold, he says. He brought some of the bond people from Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and UBS over for a visit. We always asked the same question, says Eisman. Where are the rating agencies in all of this? And Id always get the same reaction. It was a smirk. He called Standard & Poors and asked what would happen to default rates if real estate prices fell. The man at S&P couldnt say; its model for home prices had no ability to accept a negative number. They were just assuming home prices would keep going up, Eisman says. "
Yeah, let the Asians do the dirty industrial work while we westerners study crap like social sciences or take acting classes. That is the sure way to success!
Asia's overcapacity-led depression will be the natural complement of the Western credit panic.
At equipment auctions in Altant , shipping 40ft containers sell in for about $1000-$1,200 . 20 foor containers sell for 2X that amount ( easier to transport )
Erik wrote
Erik Von Stronheim writes:
My neighbor is a transport. broker. He told me they are sending empty containers back to China in many cases. Not because they want to but because they have to. Only so many containers to go around.
Erik Von Stronheim | 11.14.08 - 10:21 am
EriK lots of empty containers have always gone back to China, which is the trade imbalance. the most common item exported back is grain, then scrap
I have a client who rents to a junk/scrap yard. Business is now horrible for the renter. Had to borrow money to pay the rent one month recently.
Bear markets don't end with dramatic turnarouds. They end in a slow death march. Except of course if you trade bellies.
lawyerliz - there is tons, like lots of tons of scrap metal sitting in piles everywhere in Asia...nobody wants it at yesterdays prices!
New thread.
When industries and jobs were exported from the USA the story was that we were in a new era. An era were Americans would specialize in high tech and financial management of the world's resources because they were experts at it.
Financial management equivalent to pulling rabbits out of a hat and continually repeating the mantra "going forward" only works for so long. Throwing tax dollars into the market may convince some that all is ok for a little while longer until the piper actually has to be paid. You cannot prop up the taxpayer with taxpayer dollars...that's insane!
Isn't this obvious to anyone with any common sense?
It is interesting (though not surprising since the US dollar bounced back up to 2005 values) that exports are below 2007 levels.
What is more interesting to me is that imports are hovering around 2005 levels, and have been in decline for the past couple of years.
The TREND appears to be more exports, and fewer imports. This is long overdue and bodes well for the US, assuming it keeps up into the distant future.
Let's get the loaded in to be less than the loaded out for a change.
CR: But even more concerning for the U.S. is that export traffic is declining.
This is a very big deal in regards to how this plays out. The one hope was that consumption in the emerging markets would grow or at least hang on.
This is not happening. In the latest stats, our exports fell faster than our imports, China's imports fell faster than their exports.
How China is going to maintain the 6-7% positive growth even Roubini anticipates is beyond my understanding.
We, the world, are headed for some real pain. I can't believe it got to this point. Just incredible.
This might help drop the import curve a tiny bit:
U.S. Blocks Chinese Milk Products
By Annys Shin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, November 14, 2008; Page A16
Federal food safety officials yesterday began holding up shipments of food from China that contain milk or milk-derived ingredients in the largest effort to date to keep products tainted with the industrial chemical melamine from reaching U.S. consumers.
It sure took them long enough. If my kids get kidney failure from it, I may go on a murderous rampage.
Buy local organic milk for the duration.
Sorry. Page not found.
(September 2008 vs. September 2007)
LOADED INBOUND -9.5%
LOADED OUTBOUND -8.5%
EMPTIES -7.7%
They don't differentiate empties between inbound and outbound, that's a bummer! I would like to know empties outbound and empties inbound. Surely, the number of empties inbound wouldn't be zero?
A lot of the collapse in outbound traffic is because China is no longer buying scrap paper and metal. That what fills a lot of those westbound containers, sadly. With industrial production way way down in China, Chinese buyers don't want the paper or scrap. Anecdotal reports say there are stacks of containers full sitting in Chinese ports in limbo.
What Ned Flanders said...
Goldman Sachs execs and Bu$hCo pull off on last heist on the American taxpayer and crush last industrial union..but.. look over here! Riots in China!
Barley writes:
lawyerliz - there is tons, like lots of tons of scrap metal sitting in piles everywhere in Asia...nobody wants it at yesterdays prices!
Barley | 11.14.08 - 10:50 am | #
Some of it is sitting in my basement - I was too slow getting it to the recyclers (but then I didn't pay anything for it either - samples, rejects returns & just plain 'scrap' - mostly aluminum).
My wife is furious - wants it out of there. Oh well - can't be too long until the next bubble, right?
BTW - for the gazillionth time: exports are a red herring distraction.
If you want to see the real power of a 'weak dollar' it is domestic substitution of previously imported product - meaning we make more of what we consume here in NAFTA Zone. It doesn't increase exports but does slow imports & tightens the deficit more effectively than exports. Any export growth on top of that should have been considered as 'icing on the cake'.
That trend WAS advancing nicely until recently but now overall 'demand destruction' is putting a halt to it. To folks here on CR it comes as no surprise.