There have been some expressions of interest, no formal applications,'' Bill Ruberry, a spokesman with the OTS, said in an interview today.It's possible that one could be finalized by the end of the day.''
(Taxpayers must save those good & bad annuities! What is next?)
And I think we're about to see another leg down (or should I say a steepening of the current leg down) in the housing market. The events of the last two months can't improve buyer psychology.
Write-down of a tax asset; since there's no change in carryforward/back rules, this means they acknowledge they have no foreseable profits with which they can use their loss carryovers.
I tell people Miami is now 35% off and dropping about 1% a month. 45%off bottom if we are lucky, 55% off bottom if we are not. Pay accordingly. (not including the towers)
Another "garbage condo" in the news. Assn so strapped with foreclosures that they can't afford to pay to haul away the garbage. Some can't afford the water bill. What happens when there's an empty 50 unit bldg with 25 different lenders, none of whom are taking any responsibility to pay the assessments? And no Bd of Directors?
Result: value==zero. Property sold to county for failure to pay taxes. 50 separate tax foreclosure.
There needs to be some legislation passed to deal with this and some of the legislators are starting to realize it.
Three big European credit insurers have removed cover from suppliers of troubled U.S. carmakers General Motors Corp and Ford Motor Co, the Financial Times reported on Friday.
Remember Fannie and Freddie have much lower default rates than the loans packaged by Wall Street. If conditions worsened dramatically for Freddie and Fannie, imagine how bad it is for Wall Street MBS and loans held by lenders like Wachovia (Wells Fargo) and WaMu (JPMorgan Chase).
They're next in line for additional taxpayer's tip.
My American friends, please take pitchforks. NOW!!
Washington- The President's Working Group on Financial Markets today announced a series of initiatives to strengthen oversight and the infrastructure of the over-the-counter derivatives market.
At the end of 2004, Eisman, Moses, and Daniel shared a sense that unhealthy things were going on in the U.S. housing market: Lots of firms were lending money to people who shouldnt have been borrowing it. They thought Alan Greenspans decision after the internet bust to lower interest rates to 1 percent was a travesty that would lead to some terrible day of reckoning. Neither of these insights was entirely original. Ivy Zelman, at the time the housing-market analyst at Credit Suisse, had seen the bubble forming very early on. Theres a simple measure of sanity in housing prices: the ratio of median home price to income. Historically, it runs around 3 to 1; by late 2004, it had risen nationally to 4 to 1. All these people were saying it was nearly as high in some other countries, Zelman says. But the problem wasnt just that it was 4 to 1. In Los Angeles, it was 10 to 1, and in Miami, 8.5 to 1. And then you coupled that with the buyers. They werent real buyers. They were speculators. Zelman alienated clients with her pessimism, but she couldnt pretend everything was good. It wasnt that hard in hindsight to see it, she says. It was very hard to know when it would stop. Zelman spoke occasionally with Eisman and always left these conversations feeling better about her views and worse about the world. You needed the occasional assurance that you werent nuts, she says. She wasnt nuts. The world was.
You wanna know the upshot of no ad revenue? Maybe us "other voices" can run counter ads in TV or Newspaper:
- Homes are a great investment
- Government is helping its citizens
- Debt is good
You wanna know the upshot of no ad revenue? Maybe us "other voices" can run counter ads in TV or Newspaper:
- Homes are a great investment
- Government is helping its citizens
Captain Fish (Paper Pusher) - This hit the presses late afternoon in Europe. I suspect that the FDIC will now insure these...otherwise a number of suppliers will ask for payment upfront.
The University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston is laying off 3,800 employees, according to news reports.
The UT Board of Regents approved the layoffs Nov. 12 at a meeting in El Paso, citing Hurricane Ike as the main culprit for the school losing as much as $40 million a month since the storm hit in September.
Officials with the university told news agencies that Ike has caused nearly $710 million in damages to UTMB. The medical school has 12,500 employees, 8,000 of which worked on the islands campus.
Dr. Kenneth Shine, interim chancellor of the UT system, expected most of the jobs cut would come from John Sealy Hospital, the islands only hospital, news agencies reported.
At the meeting, regents asked Shine to give priority to hiring laid-off UTMB employees at other UT institutions and provide placement services to help them find jobs.
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Las Vegas Sands' woes rippled out to the gambling giant's workforce with thousands of jobs reportedly about to be lost in Macau as the company suspends some of its most ambitious projects in the Chinese territory.
Sands, fast running out of cash and unable to find more in the usual credit markets, will cut as many as 11,000 construction jobs, according to the Associated Press, as it halts work on parts of its planned $12 billion development in the former Portuguese territory.
What was also funny... when I called my broker and told her to sell everything. She said something like, "Are you sure? You know the market has been down a lot this year..."
(Wichita, KS) -- Cessna Aircraft announced Wednesday that it's laying off 665 people - most in Wichita.
500 of those job cuts will come in Wichita, where the company is based. The rest will be made at a plant in Bend, Oregon.
The layoffs were not a surprise because Cessna warned employees earlier this month that cuts were going to be made. The company says a global economic slowdown forced its hand.
SHENZHEN, Nov 13, 2008 (SinoCast via COMTEX) -- MOT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- Motorola China spokesperson said yesterday that Motorola would not close down its six research centers in China because they were crucial for the company's global strategy.
VERSUS
Motorola lays off 470 people in its Turin research center (created with PUBLIC financing support!)
btw
Turin is where I live. 470 telecom engineers, where the hell are supposed being relocated??
MoT,
Torches must be returned before sundown next day and must be returned fully fueled. I'll need a credit card for deposit and a picture ID for the pitchfork.
"Remember Fannie and Freddie have much lower default rates than the loans packaged by Wall Street. If conditions worsened dramatically for Freddie and Fannie, imagine how bad it is for Wall Street MBS and loans held by lenders like Wachovia (Wells Fargo) and WaMu (JPMorgan Chase)."
Good times, I'll bet. Those Wall Street guys are WAY smarter than F&F guys.
I bet they're smoking giant Cubans and high fiving each other.
When industries and jobs were exported from the USA the story was that we were in a new era. An era were Americans would instead specialize in high tech and financial management of the world's markets and resources because they were experts at it.
Financial management equivalent to pulling rabbits out of a hat and continually repeating the mantra "going forward" only works for so long. Market interventions have been occurring every week lately. Throwing tax dollars into the market may convince some that all is ok for a little while longer until the piper actually has to be paid. You cannot prop up the taxpayer with taxpayer dollars...that's insane!
Isn't this obvious to anyone with any common sense?
From the article:Freddie Mac recorded $9.1 billion in write-downs on securities...Delinquencies on loans backing securities such as "Alt-A" loans...caused 50 percent of Freddie Mac's credit losses in 2008.
A lot of this loss was in L3 stuff. What happened to those people who kept saying that the GCEs never write-down this stuff, but continue to value it at "mark-to-fantasy"?
The real outrage was examined in the article beneath this one. Crappiest. Bond. Girl. Evar.
If Obama decides to "be bold" as Krugman and others counsel, the first step is to boldly forecast a total estimate of losses from housing, based on a a 40-50% decline from peak. Then plan for that--not respond repeatedly to these constantly revised conservative numbers. If his outlook proves too pessimistic, he'll simply juice the market when we start beating expectations. That's a lot better than being too optimistic, which will lead to extended pain and inadequate responses.
If Obama decides to "be bold" as Krugman and others counsel, the first step is to boldly forecast a total estimate of losses from housing, based on a a 40-50% decline from peak.
That would be a great idea. But, he won't do it. He's a pleaser. Wants to make people happy....now.
You raised Cessa, then Motorola and a few other layoffs, but no one can top what happened yesterday when one tho usand employees arrived at the manufacturing plant for the fabled small jet known aas the Eclipse. ALL were told that their expected payroll would not be paid. One thousand, having worked two weeks, now got nothing. Much grumbling, and several dozen went to my local beer pub. The beer pub management gave any former Eclipse employee half off all drink/food. This is a large employer with well piadd labor so I expect a local ripple in our semi-arid economy. It was just last month that the Russians were said to be considering having the Eclipse build a Russian factory. Maybe the Russians can just buy the plant and ship it to Russia.
Lance R., Great article if you are the typical NYT reader. It contained little I haven't learned here on CR over the past year. Too bad that no one on the Times editorial board will read or comprehend it.
OT (Sorry) -- I was really disappointed that only 5 people dropped by 7-11 during my shift last night and used the phrase "Jas wears women's underwear" to get a 1/2 price Super Big Gulp. We can do better than that. Maybe tonight it will be half priced nachos.
Explain to me -- Fannie and Freddie have much lower default rates than Wall Street -- but they get stock/dividends wiped out but Wall Street gets to keep all theirs. That's outrageous.
How can this be the role of the of the FDIC, to be out front pushing mortgage loan modifications? Is Sheila Bair looking for a job in the new Administration?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In a surprise move, FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair Friday unveiled details of her plan to have the government help delinquent homeowners.
The proposal would have the government share up to 50% of the losses if the homeowner re-defaulted on the modified loan.
I agree, great article, and like you say nothing except names to a story some of us thought was true here in 04 and following years... saying whats going on?
Its the confirmation of the actions of the ratings agencies as well as the flippant attitude that the traders that knew had no concern for their clients...
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Publicly breaking with the Bush administration's official stance, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. proposed Friday to use $24 billion in government funding to help 1.5 million American households avoid foreclosure.
Hahaha...$24 billion divided by 1.5 million is only 16k each. What a joke.
Here's the diary on the matter, plus it links to another one. Some DKos'ers like Bair because she's been making noise about it being important to do loan mods (yes, we all know her Indymac claims never panned out).
I tend to agree, but the next steps after making such a forecast would need to be planned out and ready to implement immediately.
A forecast from the White House that project 40%-50% losses in housing would pull the rug out from a series of industries and it would do so in an accelerated fashion, even quicker than standing back and doing nothing and letting the individual companies go through bankruptcy.
A forecast so negative (or shall we ssay honest?) would need to be followed instantly by implementation of a massive restructuring plan.
I think a more mixed approach is probably necessary and would be better. That is, some very large govt interventions to 1) stimulate the economy from the bottom-up, such as aid to states and infrastructure projects, 2) some very selective rescue/restructurings of key industries with clear definitions of what is covered and clear infliction of pain on the restructured so it is quite unlike Paulson's handing out of casino chips, and 3)greater use of the bankruptcy courts so that most of this restructuring is done the old-fashioned way.
To focus on point 2:
Any direct Federal rescue/restructuring has to be conceived as an alternative to bankruptcy that is different from bankruptcy primarliy in speed and radicalness of the restructuring - in other words, it should be done so that any company that has any life left to it would prefer to go through bankruptcy if it had a choice.
This sort of federal rescue/restructuring should be done only when the public need and cause of the public good is so enormous that it justifies overwhelming almost any complaint the subject company or industry might have. It should be more like confiscating property from organized crime than the kind of please-the-bankers deals that Paulson has been executing.
(if comrades remember my support for the Congressional vote on the bail out, I still think that was the right move. The hundreds of billions used improvidently and maybe illegally by Paulson were 1) the only real option, and 2) now set up the political, moral, and juridical grounds for something much smarter and more far-reaching.)
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
Markets forming a bullish flag this a.m. Light volume pullbacks should be bought. I'm looking to buy Q's at .50 Fib & volume support 28.86-28.91.
Any direct Federal rescue/restructuring has to be conceived as an alternative to bankruptcy that is different from bankruptcy primarliy in speed and radicalness of the restructuring - in other words, it should be done so that any company that has any life left to it would prefer to go through bankruptcy if it had a choice.
I like this a lot, good point indeed on how bailouts should be done in the real world.
Leon Black's buyout firm Apollo Management LP, which bought Realogy for $6.6 billion in April 2007, is trying to reduce debt by almost $600 million and stave off default at the Parsippany, New Jersey-based real-estate broker, according to a regulatory filing dated yesterday.
Bond Girl writes:
You all are being unfair to Sheila Bair. She's just a warm and fuzzy person like that. Heck, she's even written a children's book.
So has <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Johnny-Appleseed-Rabbit-Howard-Kunstler/dp/0689800622/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226679736&sr=1-7>James Howard Kunstler
How does the ol song go, "Rally Monkey's Gone to Heaven..."
there was a guy
an under water guy who controlled the sea
got killed by ten million pounds of sludge
from new york and new jersey
this monkey's gone to heaven
the creature in the sky
got sucked in a hole
now there's a hole in the sky
and the ground's not cold
and if the ground's not cold
everything is gonna burn
we'll all take turns
i'll get mine, too
this monkey's gone to have
I heard Peter Schiff say recently that "Foreclosures are the market".
I agree completely. I have 16 short sales in process right now, and I believe they represent market value, not below market value.
Here locally I think REOs are the market. Putting that a listing is a foreclosure is the best advertising someone can do. Buyers come in droves hoping for a deal and submit bids. Short sales that aren't pre-approved get shunned and few bids (and lower prices). Pre-approved short sales move just fine.
I think in a few cases the companies or industries should not be allowed a choice, just like succesful organized crime syndicates are not allowed a choice.
This logic already exists in practice. There are regulations that forbid certain kinds of business practices even when the practices are remunerative: e.g., pure food and drug laws, pollution regulations, accounting regulations, etc.
Certains kinds of business activities are too dangerous to be allowed. Sometimes that fits the model of poisoning the milk supply. Sometimes it can be more about corroding the entire marketplace or jeopardizing the entire industrial base (which can be an economic, social, and national security danger all rolled into one).
A forecast so negative (or shall we ssay honest?) would need to be followed instantly by implementation of a massive restructuring plan.
Joe, it was central planning that got us into this mess. There is no sense hoping for smarter central planning because central planning is never smart. As comrade misean dope says, "Hayek nailed it."
Yep see my comment on garbage condos in the previous thread.
I tell people that the only condos I would buy are old ones full of old people (heck I am an old person), where they mostly have low or no mtges and the ferocious little old ladies make everybody toe the line. These are hardly luxury housing, but I would say they've only gone down 10-15% compared to all the losses elsewhere. Maybe even only 5%. In Hialeah, working class, dense, the older latinas and latinos can walk to the Sedanos (Cuban grocery store) and the clinic.
Eclipse shafting you all on payroll is an outrage. Mgmt is either incompetent or corrupt; because if they were watching their cash correctly they would have forecast shutting down and prepared for BK. Employee wages are first in line for cash distribution in a BK. There's a lawsuit in there. Too bad, I was hoping Eclipse would make a difference in aviation biz.
Not necessarily worse for wall street. Fannie/Freddie were ENTIRELY in the mortgage business. Wall street is more diversified. Also Fannie/Freddie BOUGHT a lot of crappy loans even if they didnt' themselves securitize them. 50% of ALL loans are guaranteed or owned by Fannie/Freddie. Wall street deserves at least half the blame for this crisis. But Fannie/Freddie aren't far behind.
Interesting Times writes:
But GM's market cap is less than $2B...
Just buy them.
They won't for the same reason they avoid more than 80% equity in AIG. There are a lot of companies that simply have debt loads that are too big to bear. Companies like Sun, GM, Nortel, GE, etc are strong companies in their respective fields -- but the most they can do is tread water until the debt is restructured
Doesn't seem like Wall Street is really getting the blame -- either by the media, market reaction to their stocks, or govts reactions to letting them keep dividends, etc.
The impossibility of full central planning was part of my point. A full frontal forecast from the WH would need to be followed by central planning. I suggested something different: a mixed response, which worked well in Sweden, worked well in Malaysia, etc.
But central planning is not at all why we are in this mess. To the contrary, it stems from exempting the CDS market from regulation and then exempting the private sub-prime lenders from serious oversight, and also from the laissez-faire belief that tax cuts and deregulating are always good.
Put that all together with stupid invasions of other countries and torture and you've got the Bush Admn's bankrupting of America.
I live in Louisiana. Our big teaching hospital was Charity in New Orleans. After it was destroyed politicans insisted that it be rebuilt in New Orleans. It could easily be rebuilt in Baton Rouge out of flood reach and above sea level, but no...
Texas has the same system. A large teaching hopital located on a island. The teaching hospital could easily be built in Dallas or San Antoino, but no...
Also read the Lewis article. Better than Liar's Poker. Lewis summed it up "while securitizing, and selling even the credit default swaps, Wall Street was unknowingly assuring their own bankruptcy in exchange for the billions in up front fees".
Sick and sicker.
Why can't GM file for bankruptcy and THEN let the US government provide credit/funding for restructuring to allow for a more viable enterprise? This ofcourse would involve serious dumping of labor contracts and even the pension plans to the PBGC. This is something a Republican administration could have done but definitely not feasible with the incoming Democratic admin.
Companies like Sun, GM, Nortel, GE, etc are strong companies in their respective fields -- but the most they can do is tread water until the debt is restructured
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.14.08 - 11:38 am | #
Wachovia Bank has foreclosed on a 1,700-acre development in Las Vegas before a single home was built.
The Las Vegas Sun reports that Focus Property Group chief John Ritter acknowledged the lender has seized the property once slated for 16,000 homes.
Ritter made the comment Thursday at a housing conference in Las Vegas. Focus Property Group and eight other builders bought the land for $510 million in 2005.
In October, Wachovia filed a lawsuit naming Focus and its partners for defaulting on payments for the Kyle Canyon development.
The other partners in the deal were Toll Brothers, Lennar Homes, Pulte Homes, KB Home, Kimball Hill Homes, Woodside Homes, Meritage Homes and Ryland Homes.
" Interesting Times writes:
Ministry of Truth writes:
White House says talking to Congress about accelerating $25 billion auto loans already appropriated
But GM's market cap is less than $2B...
Just buy them.
Interesting Times | 11.14.08 - 11:33 am | # "
Yeah, and take over the $500 billion pension plan too.
I was pointing out the benefits to the long neglected option of bankruptcy. Pundits/lobbyists argue that people would no longer buy cars from them, but that's a hollow argument.
I don't think GM will go bankrupt. They have generations of political connections at their disposal in addition to those from Ford, Chrysler, and Cerberus. There is also room to maneuver a cute deal that they can sell well enough to the public before the next disaster strikes.
As for wasted money, I think the automakers fuss is largely overblown and emotional when you see what has already transpired.
In the big scheme of things, it's not what they're spending money on but how much they're spending that is crucial to their current objectives
rich writes:
For what it's worth, gold and silver haven't yet got hammered (like oil) in today's market rout.
It may be a one-day wonder. But it's something
Tiny markets, could be a big rally and its impact on other then gold bugs very small. Its all about the Yen/dollar and whether the emerging markets can be kept afoat to provide some export driven business for Japan and the US.
But central planning is not at all why we are in this mess.
Looking to the government to do anything as complicated as regulating a CDS market is putting way to much faith in government. In theory it would be nice if all contracts were enforced by government. But, stuff like CDS was strictly buyer beware.
The level playing field was done with enactment of the 16th Amendment. All we have witnessed since was mostly inevitable.
I'm just pissed that government hasn't chosen me to be a winner.
The perception of letting C stay in the single digits has also got to be a factor. Not that it really mean's much however the law of round "cute" number points weighs heavily methinks.
It's amazing how many people on these blogs are, even at this late date, not only cheerleading for capitalism and individualistic social and enconomic policies but doing so with ear-splitting shrillness, as if screaming louder will make you right.
In the early nineties the Soviet system fell apart because it was so rife with corruption and graft that it could no longer do what it was intended for, that being to provide for the welfare of its subjects. We are witnessing proof positive that the fact that our system is/was capitalist did not make it immune to the very same corruption and graft, and now it is falling apart and surely as the sun rises, it will be replaced.
Those of you who think you can wrap yourselves in ideology and your own personal "pile of gold" (take the meaning literally and figuratively) and weather this are sadly, grossly wrong. Your demise will only be longer and more painful if you align yourself with this dead, rotting system. You are outnumbered by a massive heavily armed mob and they will not eat ammunition; they will use their last bullets to take what you have away from you. You can share and have some too or you can die fighting a mob.
It may be worth repeating that a wide spectrum of asset-backed-linked derivative products depend on new contracts to be signed for future cash flow obligations pools -- Hence, and ipto facto, the game of synthetic growth distortion will revert back to growth which will be far less robust, a time when risk was a concern, a time when fundamentals mattered, a time when dividend checks mattered....
Ford Credit may need to further reduce the amount of finance receivables and operating leases it purchases or originates; this reduction could reduce Ford Credit's ongoing profits and adversely affect its ability to support the sale of Ford vehicles.
About 11% of Ford Credit's committed capacity is up for renewal in the fourth quarter of 2008. Given the nature of many of Ford Credit's asset-backed committed facilities, it has the ability to obtain term funding up to the time that the facilities mature. Any outstanding debt at the maturity of the facilities remains outstanding through the term of the underlying assets.
Ministry of Truth writes:
Here goes Silicon Valley
I wonder. How concentrated are the layoffs?
Oh, I've been reading a bunch on the troubles in the venture capital market. That is getting scaray and Silicon Valley, LA (movies, internet companies), and bio-tech are going to take it in the shorts. (I'm sure someone else will point out the whole list...)
Interesting times ahead.
So obviously to any card carrying NAR member this means its a great time to buy! ROTFLMAO
If conditions worsened dramatically for Freddie and Fannie, imagine how bad it is for Wall Street MBS and loans held by lenders like Wachovia (Wells Fargo) and WaMu (JPMorgan Chase).
Most of our banks are insolvent. The banks (like Goldman) that pretended to be making money as the bust gathered speed were doing so on the basis of uncollectable hedges primarily with AIG.
In essesnce, Goldman's 2006, 2007 & 2008 bonuses are/were insured and paid by the U.S. Taxpayer via the AIG bailout.
No economic system is immune from corruption. I just want balance. If the free market system doesn't work well for certain things, like possibly banking, then we need to socialize the profits. Either that or let them fail.
I pay attention to those large land developments going back to the lender. It seems to be an every day occurrence now and picking up velocity. I truly believe this is the final chapter of most homebuilders. Mass BKs to follow shortly.
First, Detroit. Now Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Phoenix are trying to get underneath the $700 TARP.
The federal government is providing support for the financial industry,'' said Luke Butler, a spokesman for Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, who organized the effort.Cities could use some support, too.''
Of course, Paulson is not authorized to use TARP funds on municipalities; Congress would have to amend the EESA. I can't imagine that red state senators are going to be pleased with the thought of bailing out mostly blue-cities.
MS writes:
The perception of letting C stay in the single digits has also got to be a factor. Not that it really mean's much however the law of round "cute" number points weighs heavily methinks.
Yeah, it's a bad deal to have a single-letter stock ticker below $10.
Instead of Hands Across America, it's "Hands Out Across America"...
WASHINGTON (AP) - Three big city mayors asked the federal government Friday to use a portion of the $700 billion financial bailout to assist struggling cities.
The mayors sought help with their pension costs, infrastructure investment and cash-flow problems stemming from the global financial crisis.
The mayorsMichael Nutter of Philadelphia, Shirley Franklin of Atlanta and Phil Gordon of Phoenixmade their request in a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
Nutter said cities are facing an economic crisis not seen since the Depression and need help just like financial institutions.
"I want to make sure that cities and metro areas are at the table, that their voices are being heard, that our challenges and problems are well understood, so that we can get relief," Nutter said.
President-elect Barack Obama has also called for some sort of aid to state and local governments so they don't have to raise taxes or lay off workers while the federal government is trying to revive the economy, but he hasn't proposed or endorsed a specific aid plan.
lawyerliz,
Lennar could be sticking around due to ability to delay recognition of losses by delaying official default. Also the stock by last count was 90% institutionally owned. The cost recovery from a default would be less than the direct and indirect systemic costs to the banks.
Interesting reports from commenters about one by one banks foreclosing choice deals. There probably will come a watershed moment in the future
No word on where those layoffs will take place, but I suspect that few of them will be in India.
A friend has been a Sun employee in SV for many years, but only by dancing as fast as he can. He was in support, and switched to QA just before Sun shipped support operations overseas. I wonder if he'll make it this time.
The problem with the "free market" was the level of influence the biggest players had/have within our government, not the system itself. The more profits are privatized, while losses are socialized, the more it seems that the players that took their profits up front acted rationally in their own self-interest.
The problem now is that those same players still have enough influence in our government that we will not/cannot do what is necessary to get those profits back. As a result, we are screwed.
However, this does not mean that the "free market" is broken. It just means that in the future we will need to decide whether we want to privitize or socialize both profits and losses. That and everyone in Washington should be run out of town on a rail.
Taubman Survey Reveals Black Friday Shopping Predictions
Taubman Centers on sale today, down 12%
On average, shoppers reported that they expect to spend $400 on Black Friday alone. When asked what they planned to buy, most reported that clothing is at the top of their list. Three-out-of-four (76%) say they'll be looking for women's apparel while more than half (55%) will be in the men's departments.
Taubman Centers, Inc. (NYSE: TCO - News) is a real estate investment trust engaged in the development and management of regional and super regional shopping centers. Taubman's 24 U.S. owned and/or managed properties, the most productive in the industry, serve major markets from coast to coast
"Citi CEO Vikram Pandit has ordered business unit heads to cut employee compensation costs by 25%, the WSJ says. This could lead to 60,000 firings by next year. The cuts will include the investment banking division. The firm has already fired 23,000 people over the past year, reducing its global workforce to 352,000...The company vehemently denied the WSJ's report yesterday that Chairman Win Bisschof may soon be sent packing. The WSJ says it stands by its story...Vik Pandit bought 750,000 of thee 1.2 million shares Citi brass scooped up yesterday. This sounds bold at first, but it's still chicken feed (under $10 million), and its value was likely calculated to be higher than that in getting everyone to talk about how Citi management is buying...Citi is jacking up the interest rates on its credit cards, punishing already overwhelmed consumers...Citigroup is notifying some credit-card customers that their interest rates are being raised by an average of three percentage points."
Goodness...they're ignoring Paulson's directive to lend! Notice also the disclosure of blatant manipulation of the stock price.
I have a CC from Citi, however I have a zero balance and the card is in the freezer.
Finally I can stop saying layoffs are only being hinted at. Now they're finally happening. Note: There are a ton to come in 2Q2009 and 3Q2009. Most of my friends work for companies planning layoffs (multiple industries, multiple states). We have people we are cutting spending just because they have friends being laid off (I'm talking good workers who have jobs set for 3+ years) Hmmm...
Obviously this means Christmas sales will beat expectations! /snark
yep...guessing the same here. But that's all it is....they have to keep it up for next week's op. ex.
Sigh.
If you look at the last ten years of opex in SPY, the average 5day return (close friday before to close on opex Friday) is +0.20%. Less than 1% move, and only slightly positive.
The skew is -0.75, so actually the distribution is left leaning, meaning DOWN is more likely than up.
OK, maybe recent history is different:
Last two years: average +0.58% (so slightly more positive, but not by much), skew -0.86.
There is a med school in Dallas.
Journeyman
There are three that I know of (a relative graduated from one and did classes for specialty training at at least two others).
I have a CC from Citi, however I have a zero balance and the card is in the freezer.
Zombie Kung Fu Panda | Homepage | 11.14.08 - 12:17 pm | #
I'm running a $17k balance with them until I pay it off from an interest-bearing account next month, the balance was at 0% for all of this year. Thanks for the free money, Pandit!
(I realize you didn't make any interest from your loan to me, but it's ok, because you would have just lent that money to some other consumer who would have defaulted... I just saved you a bundle)
LaSalle Hotel Properties (NYSE:LHO) today rescinded its prior outlook for 2008 due to the continued rapid deterioration in the overall economic environment and lack of clarity related to its negative impact on the operating fundamentals of the lodging sector.
At this time we do not believe that we can
provide a credible outlook for the remainder of the year as expected performance at our hotels continues to decline as demonstrated by our portfolio experiencing a RevPAR decline of approximately 11.4% in October versus our projected decline of 6.7% just three weeks ago...blah, blah, yap, yap...
Am I missing something or did Citi give you a 0% interest for 1 yr credit card? No catch?
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.14.08 - 12:23 pm | #
Yup, no catch. I applied Nov '07, they gave me a $9k credit line with a no-fee "0% for a year" balance transfer.
A day after I got the card, I clicked their "request a credit limit increase" button and asked for $22k, they gave me $21.5k (note that this was in Nov 2007!).
Wrote myself a check for $20k that I've been keeping at CFC for most of this year. I'll pay it off in December. Like I said, I'm merely charging a small fee to keep their money safe from their irresponsibility.
Sparhawk,
Am I missing something or did Citi give you a 0% interest for 1 yr credit card? No catch?
EvilHenryPaulson
I had one of those last year. Yeah, during the boom years CC companies were handing them out like candy. Did the same thing. Paid it off right before the interest kicked in, now it sits in a drawer. Thanks for the free loan Citi!
"No word on where those layoffs will take place, but I suspect that few of them will be in India."
BT just laid off 10k in India yesterday.
Off-shoring is turning out to be a bust. Just like outsourcing was back in 2000-2001 in tech. Very low ROI at the end of the day.
Read up on how little high-level access the Indian PM/.gov is getting to President-elect Obama. Protectionism will be the name of the game for the next few years.
I think people will be surprised how many Western companies cut jobs in India over the next 12 months.
Treasury through TARP has covered some businesses with others having their hands out. So, tell me, how many company's in the S&P500 have not asked for govt funds? Will this affect the S&P 500 index?
DiamondRock Hospitality Co posted lower quarterly funds from operations (FFO) as revenue per available room fell, but the company backed its full-year outlook.
IMHO, thousands of places like this will be like LaSalle Hotel Properties, rescinded prior guidance and then of course the next shoe that is dropping will be wall street-wide dividend cuts.
Big layoffs coming from WAMU, to be announced Dec 1. They have been doing interviews all month at the Seattle headquarters. Even top execs had to interview. My daughter's college roomie's father is a VP and he had to go through the process. Was told Dec 1 was "D-Day".
yeah, I saw Sheila's plan. For fun, search Amazon for "Sheila Bair"...it responds "Did you mean Sheila Hair? Haha. [If any programmers at Amazon are reading, please hard-code that error-handing to reply 'did you mean Greasy Hair? there's a $100 gift card to Ruby Tuesday's in it for you.]
The plan has one nessesary element, paying servicers to modify. But 50% of future losses with no cap?!? That's pretty rich. Should push the outrage meter up a coupla notches. On the flipside, that outta at least make a dent. Well, at least for whole loans where no fraud was involved, anyway.
Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, will take ``radical actions'' to reach earnings targets next year amid a spreading global recession, Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris said.
Dow and others I think will be taking some radical actions to take out capacity,'' said Liveris, 54.There could be acceleration of capacity rationalization because of acute pain.''
This is as bad as we have ever seen it in our lifetimes,'' Liveris said.We could be looking at a couple years of trough and severe correction.''
Dow has announced plans to cut spending and reduce working capital this year in addition to plant closings, which Liveris hasn't detailed. The company has sufficient cash flow to maintain its dividend through the recession, Liveris said.
In a terrible market, a value stock has to protect its dividend,'' Liveris said.This company and this CEO will protect the dividend.''
"BTW, Graceland is not that impressive...thirty years ago it was probably quite grand, but now it just looks like an average McMansion.
Zombie Kung Fu Panda"
Dr. Egon Spengler: I'm worried, Ray. All my readings point to something big on the horizon.
Winston Zeddemore: What do you mean, big?
Dr. Egon Spengler: Well, let's say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of psychokinetic energy in the New York area. Based on this morning's reading, it would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds.
The FDIC Chair is a five year term to make the position semi-autonomous from the Executive.
She's there until 2011.
Basel Too | 11.14.08 - 11:22 am | #
Sorry, Greasy Hair Bair serves at the definite pleasure of the president regardless of an apointment timeline - but I doubt that she will be replaced since she has a Barney friend. She may resign if the job pressures get too great and they are already bigger than the 1920s because there was no FDIC then.
Only Halfway Through the Foreclosure Crisis?
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November 13, 2008 4:21 PM
ABC News' Z. Byron Wolf Reports from Capitol Hill: Martin Eakes, who runs the Center for Responsible Lending, told the Senate Banking Committee in February 2007 that the U.S. was on the precipice of two million foreclosures for subprime loans. Today, the committee chairman, Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., called Eakes prescient and said the two million figure "seems almost quaint."
Eakes, however, sees no end to the foreclosure crisis in sight.
"We're only halfway through subprime loans alone, not to mention a third of the way or less through the adjustable or arm," he told the committee today, of foreclosures. Eakes calls the proposal by FDIC Commissioner Sheila Bair (and rejected, apparently by the Treasury Department) to use taxpayer money for a homeowner bailout "just an absolute no brainer."
And those bastards have only begun to take all of our money - their intention is to BK the USA, end all of those damn Socialist programs from FDR and Johnson, and implement a one world Fasco-Capitalist Kleptocracy that will enslave us once and for all:
Did you not hear Sarcozy and other G20 leaders calling for a financial New World Order? They actually used those words, but if we write about the NWO we are called crackpots.
Well, there it is right in front of your fat American faces - do you believe it now?
First
Third
Insurers Mull S&L Status; Request Could Come Today (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
U.S. insurers have approached regulators about applying for status as savings and loan institutions, said a spokesman for the federal Office of Thrift Supervision.
There have been some expressions of interest, no formal applications,'' Bill Ruberry, a spokesman with the OTS, said in an interview today.It's possible that one could be finalized by the end of the day.''
(Taxpayers must save those good & bad annuities! What is next?)
I know how bad it is, the foreclosees come to see me all the time. very depressing.
Oh, its very bad for MBS everywhere...I don't really have to imagine it.
This is getting ridiculous. Tell the government to give me #300,000 and I'll buy a house.
FRE is the new AIG. Need MORE taxpayer dollars!
And I think we're about to see another leg down (or should I say a steepening of the current leg down) in the housing market. The events of the last two months can't improve buyer psychology.
"$13.8 billion for Freddie Mac to erase the shareholder equity deficit"
I think anyone still holding FRE shares should have to pony up for that $13.8 billion. Yes we should have negative stock values.
I guess no one noticed gold up $40 large...huh
Write-down of a tax asset; since there's no change in carryforward/back rules, this means they acknowledge they have no foreseable profits with which they can use their loss carryovers.
FIN-48
I tell people Miami is now 35% off and dropping about 1% a month. 45%off bottom if we are lucky, 55% off bottom if we are not. Pay accordingly. (not including the towers)
Another "garbage condo" in the news. Assn so strapped with foreclosures that they can't afford to pay to haul away the garbage. Some can't afford the water bill. What happens when there's an empty 50 unit bldg with 25 different lenders, none of whom are taking any responsibility to pay the assessments? And no Bd of Directors?
Result: value==zero. Property sold to county for failure to pay taxes. 50 separate tax foreclosure.
There needs to be some legislation passed to deal with this and some of the legislators are starting to realize it.
Is this important?
UPDATE 1-Insurers pull cover from suppliers to GM, Ford -FT - Forbes.com
Three big European credit insurers have removed cover from suppliers of troubled U.S. carmakers General Motors Corp and Ford Motor Co, the Financial Times reported on Friday.
This is fun and what banks/companies won't make through the day?
jo6pac
Remember Fannie and Freddie have much lower default rates than the loans packaged by Wall Street. If conditions worsened dramatically for Freddie and Fannie, imagine how bad it is for Wall Street MBS and loans held by lenders like Wachovia (Wells Fargo) and WaMu (JPMorgan Chase).
They're next in line for additional taxpayer's tip.
My American friends, please take pitchforks. NOW!!
HP-1272: PWG Announces Initiatives to Strengthen OTC Derivatives Oversight and Infrastructure
PWG Announces Initiatives to Strengthen
OTC Derivatives Oversight and Infrastructure
Washington- The President's Working Group on Financial Markets today announced a series of initiatives to strengthen oversight and the infrastructure of the over-the-counter derivatives market.
Initiatives announced... .. .
imagine how bad it is for Wall Street MBS and loans held by lenders like Wachovia (Wells Fargo) and WaMu (JPMorgan Chase).
I'd prefer not to imagine that.
I posted link to Lewis's article "The End" on previous thread...
Fo rthose that have read in its entirity...your thoughts?
The End Of Wall Streets Boom - News Markets - Portfolio.com
At the end of 2004, Eisman, Moses, and Daniel shared a sense that unhealthy things were going on in the U.S. housing market: Lots of firms were lending money to people who shouldnt have been borrowing it. They thought Alan Greenspans decision after the internet bust to lower interest rates to 1 percent was a travesty that would lead to some terrible day of reckoning. Neither of these insights was entirely original. Ivy Zelman, at the time the housing-market analyst at Credit Suisse, had seen the bubble forming very early on. Theres a simple measure of sanity in housing prices: the ratio of median home price to income. Historically, it runs around 3 to 1; by late 2004, it had risen nationally to 4 to 1. All these people were saying it was nearly as high in some other countries, Zelman says. But the problem wasnt just that it was 4 to 1. In Los Angeles, it was 10 to 1, and in Miami, 8.5 to 1. And then you coupled that with the buyers. They werent real buyers. They were speculators. Zelman alienated clients with her pessimism, but she couldnt pretend everything was good. It wasnt that hard in hindsight to see it, she says. It was very hard to know when it would stop. Zelman spoke occasionally with Eisman and always left these conversations feeling better about her views and worse about the world. You needed the occasional assurance that you werent nuts, she says. She wasnt nuts. The world was.
lawyerliz writes:
I know how bad it is, the foreclosees come to see me all the time. very depressing
Question - Is it one in five, three in five...who come to see you and are in f/c?
You wanna know the upshot of no ad revenue? Maybe us "other voices" can run counter ads in TV or Newspaper:
- Homes are a great investment
- Government is helping its citizens
- Debt is good
Just a thought...
I want my dividend..Give 'em the money!
You wanna know the upshot of no ad revenue? Maybe us "other voices" can run counter ads in TV or Newspaper:
- Homes are a great investment
- Government is helping its citizens
- Debt is good
Barley writes:
I want my dividend..Give 'em the money!
Barley | 11.14.08 - 10:46 am | #
I want my bonus..MORE money pleeez
Anyone else think that a Torch and Pitchfork rental business would be better than outright selling them?
"Have another cookie, my dear?"
An applicable quote, but I bet no one can name the movie. It's obscure.
Captain Fish (Paper Pusher) - This hit the presses late afternoon in Europe. I suspect that the FDIC will now insure these...otherwise a number of suppliers will ask for payment upfront.
this means they acknowledge they have no foreseable profits with which they can use their loss carryovers.
Kinda like the average citizen.
The University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston is laying off 3,800 employees, according to news reports.
The UT Board of Regents approved the layoffs Nov. 12 at a meeting in El Paso, citing Hurricane Ike as the main culprit for the school losing as much as $40 million a month since the storm hit in September.
Officials with the university told news agencies that Ike has caused nearly $710 million in damages to UTMB. The medical school has 12,500 employees, 8,000 of which worked on the islands campus.
Dr. Kenneth Shine, interim chancellor of the UT system, expected most of the jobs cut would come from John Sealy Hospital, the islands only hospital, news agencies reported.
At the meeting, regents asked Shine to give priority to hiring laid-off UTMB employees at other UT institutions and provide placement services to help them find jobs.
8,350......here we come.
popeye, you got slugged hard today by retail sales.
I am wondering if the G20 meeting is spooking the crap out of markets.
Re: CHINA
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Las Vegas Sands' woes rippled out to the gambling giant's workforce with thousands of jobs reportedly about to be lost in Macau as the company suspends some of its most ambitious projects in the Chinese territory.
Sands, fast running out of cash and unable to find more in the usual credit markets, will cut as many as 11,000 construction jobs, according to the Associated Press, as it halts work on parts of its planned $12 billion development in the former Portuguese territory.
And I suppose the idiots will rebuild the hospital on the verschlunkener island.
Why wouldn't it have spooked the crap out of the market yesterday?
What was also funny... when I called my broker and told her to sell everything. She said something like, "Are you sure? You know the market has been down a lot this year..."
So glad I'm off the roller coaster...
I don't know what the fraction of clients in foreclosure is.
Thursday, Nov 13, 2008 @08:13am CST
(Wichita, KS) -- Cessna Aircraft announced Wednesday that it's laying off 665 people - most in Wichita.
500 of those job cuts will come in Wichita, where the company is based. The rest will be made at a plant in Bend, Oregon.
The layoffs were not a surprise because Cessna warned employees earlier this month that cuts were going to be made. The company says a global economic slowdown forced its hand.
Prizzis Honor?
I have some extremely off-topic links to share.
1923 ... 2008 (video, don't have volume loud at work)
very cute makes me consider raising my future kids in French.
Prizzis Honor?
Blonderengel
Pizza Friday!!
You got it, Blond. Well done. Chocolate Chip or Oatmeal Raisin, what's your flavor?
SHENZHEN, Nov 13, 2008 (SinoCast via COMTEX) -- MOT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating -- Motorola China spokesperson said yesterday that Motorola would not close down its six research centers in China because they were crucial for the company's global strategy.
VERSUS
Motorola lays off 470 people in its Turin research center (created with PUBLIC financing support!)
btw
Turin is where I live. 470 telecom engineers, where the hell are supposed being relocated??
MoT,
Torches must be returned before sundown next day and must be returned fully fueled. I'll need a credit card for deposit and a picture ID for the pitchfork.
lawyerliz writes:
I know how bad it is, the foreclosees come to see me all the time. very depressing.
In SWFL we are seeing big issues with condo's in low occupied HOA's. I'm not sure I'd want one if they gave it to me.
Asso liabs totally unknown.
"Remember Fannie and Freddie have much lower default rates than the loans packaged by Wall Street. If conditions worsened dramatically for Freddie and Fannie, imagine how bad it is for Wall Street MBS and loans held by lenders like Wachovia (Wells Fargo) and WaMu (JPMorgan Chase)."
Good times, I'll bet. Those Wall Street guys are WAY smarter than F&F guys.
I bet they're smoking giant Cubans and high fiving each other.
Nostrovia,
When industries and jobs were exported from the USA the story was that we were in a new era. An era were Americans would instead specialize in high tech and financial management of the world's markets and resources because they were experts at it.
Financial management equivalent to pulling rabbits out of a hat and continually repeating the mantra "going forward" only works for so long. Market interventions have been occurring every week lately. Throwing tax dollars into the market may convince some that all is ok for a little while longer until the piper actually has to be paid. You cannot prop up the taxpayer with taxpayer dollars...that's insane!
Isn't this obvious to anyone with any common sense?
From the article:Freddie Mac recorded $9.1 billion in write-downs on securities...Delinquencies on loans backing securities such as "Alt-A" loans...caused 50 percent of Freddie Mac's credit losses in 2008.
A lot of this loss was in L3 stuff. What happened to those people who kept saying that the GCEs never write-down this stuff, but continue to value it at "mark-to-fantasy"?
The real outrage was examined in the article beneath this one. Crappiest. Bond. Girl. Evar.
If Obama decides to "be bold" as Krugman and others counsel, the first step is to boldly forecast a total estimate of losses from housing, based on a a 40-50% decline from peak. Then plan for that--not respond repeatedly to these constantly revised conservative numbers. If his outlook proves too pessimistic, he'll simply juice the market when we start beating expectations. That's a lot better than being too optimistic, which will lead to extended pain and inadequate responses.
If Obama decides to "be bold" as Krugman and others counsel, the first step is to boldly forecast a total estimate of losses from housing, based on a a 40-50% decline from peak.
That would be a great idea. But, he won't do it. He's a pleaser. Wants to make people happy....now.
YLSP:
Delighted to hear you settled. And that you found a good day to do it.
lawyerliz:
Any stories emerging from luxury towers completed soon enough to be largely occupied? Say, 60 - 70% sold?
Check that Dow. Increasingly familiar skateboard down stairs pattern.
How does the ol song go, "Rally Monkey's Gone to Heaven..."
Or somesuch.
CC
You raised Cessa, then Motorola and a few other layoffs, but no one can top what happened yesterday when one tho usand employees arrived at the manufacturing plant for the fabled small jet known aas the Eclipse. ALL were told that their expected payroll would not be paid. One thousand, having worked two weeks, now got nothing. Much grumbling, and several dozen went to my local beer pub. The beer pub management gave any former Eclipse employee half off all drink/food. This is a large employer with well piadd labor so I expect a local ripple in our semi-arid economy. It was just last month that the Russians were said to be considering having the Eclipse build a Russian factory. Maybe the Russians can just buy the plant and ship it to Russia.
I would like to know why every Bond Girl since the mid 80's has been a brunette. Whats up with that?
I'm thinking you should rename this blog from Calculated Risk to Certainty of Doom.
Lance R., Great article if you are the typical NYT reader. It contained little I haven't learned here on CR over the past year. Too bad that no one on the Times editorial board will read or comprehend it.
What's a republic.
For what it's worth, gold and silver haven't yet got hammered (like oil) in today's market rout.
It may be a one-day wonder. But it's something.
OT (Sorry) -- I was really disappointed that only 5 people dropped by 7-11 during my shift last night and used the phrase "Jas wears women's underwear" to get a 1/2 price Super Big Gulp. We can do better than that. Maybe tonight it will be half priced nachos.
Markets forming a bullish flag this a.m. Light volume pullbacks should be bought. I'm looking to buy Q's at .50 Fib & volume support 28.86-28.91.
Explain to me -- Fannie and Freddie have much lower default rates than Wall Street -- but they get stock/dividends wiped out but Wall Street gets to keep all theirs. That's outrageous.
How can this be the role of the of the FDIC, to be out front pushing mortgage loan modifications? Is Sheila Bair looking for a job in the new Administration?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In a surprise move, FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair Friday unveiled details of her plan to have the government help delinquent homeowners.
The proposal would have the government share up to 50% of the losses if the homeowner re-defaulted on the modified loan.
FDIC's Bair pushes aggressive mortgage plan - Nov. 14, 2008
comrade kidbuck,
I agree, great article, and like you say nothing except names to a story some of us thought was true here in 04 and following years... saying whats going on?
Its the confirmation of the actions of the ratings agencies as well as the flippant attitude that the traders that knew had no concern for their clients...
criminal really...
Rich
so noted
Is Sheila Bair looking for a job in the new Administration?
Sheila's name has been floated as a candidate for SecTreas.
The beer pub management gave any former Eclipse employee half off all drink/food.
Deflation coming!
Seriously, I feel sad for you
Sparhawk writes:
Is Sheila Bair looking for a job in the new Administration?
Sheila's name has been floated as a candidate for SecTreas.
Sparhawk
That has got to be a joke.
Right?
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Publicly breaking with the Bush administration's official stance, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. proposed Friday to use $24 billion in government funding to help 1.5 million American households avoid foreclosure.
Hahaha...$24 billion divided by 1.5 million is only 16k each. What a joke.
EHP,
Nice find. Concerning beer bongs: I always wondered what people did with foul undrinkable swills like light beer.
What's a republic?
You all are being unfair to Sheila Bair. She's just a warm and fuzzy person like that. Heck, she's even written a children's book.
Amazon.com: Rock, Brock, And the Savings Shock (9780807570944): Sheila Bair, Barry Gott: Books
Effective Demand: Short Sale & Foreclosure for San Fernando Valley & Ventura County - October 2008
Here is how much short sales and foreclosures are driving sales locally here in SFV & Ventura County.
That has got to be a joke.
Right?
It'll sure be a joke if she gets the position. I read this on Daily Kos, so take with a grain of salt. Nothing I've seen on the major media, yet.
Daily Kos: Summers No Longer In Running For Secretary Of Treasury!
Here's the diary on the matter, plus it links to another one. Some DKos'ers like Bair because she's been making noise about it being important to do loan mods (yes, we all know her Indymac claims never panned out).
Anyone know whats happening with Guaranty Bank GFG? The dropped 30 % this morning.
I always wondered what people did with foul undrinkable swills like light beer
Squeeze some lime into it. Kinda refreshing, actually. Just don't expect it to taste like beer
Markel
I tend to agree, but the next steps after making such a forecast would need to be planned out and ready to implement immediately.
A forecast from the White House that project 40%-50% losses in housing would pull the rug out from a series of industries and it would do so in an accelerated fashion, even quicker than standing back and doing nothing and letting the individual companies go through bankruptcy.
A forecast so negative (or shall we ssay honest?) would need to be followed instantly by implementation of a massive restructuring plan.
I think a more mixed approach is probably necessary and would be better. That is, some very large govt interventions to 1) stimulate the economy from the bottom-up, such as aid to states and infrastructure projects, 2) some very selective rescue/restructurings of key industries with clear definitions of what is covered and clear infliction of pain on the restructured so it is quite unlike Paulson's handing out of casino chips, and 3)greater use of the bankruptcy courts so that most of this restructuring is done the old-fashioned way.
To focus on point 2:
Any direct Federal rescue/restructuring has to be conceived as an alternative to bankruptcy that is different from bankruptcy primarliy in speed and radicalness of the restructuring - in other words, it should be done so that any company that has any life left to it would prefer to go through bankruptcy if it had a choice.
This sort of federal rescue/restructuring should be done only when the public need and cause of the public good is so enormous that it justifies overwhelming almost any complaint the subject company or industry might have. It should be more like confiscating property from organized crime than the kind of please-the-bankers deals that Paulson has been executing.
(if comrades remember my support for the Congressional vote on the bail out, I still think that was the right move. The hundreds of billions used improvidently and maybe illegally by Paulson were 1) the only real option, and 2) now set up the political, moral, and juridical grounds for something much smarter and more far-reaching.)
The FDIC Chair is a five year term to make the position semi-autonomous from the Executive.
She's there until 2011.
Here is how much short sales and foreclosures are driving sales locally here in SFV & Ventura County.
Effective Demand
I heard Peter Schiff say recently that "Foreclosures are the market".
I agree completely. I have 16 short sales in process right now, and I believe they represent market value, not below market value.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
Markets forming a bullish flag this a.m. Light volume pullbacks should be bought. I'm looking to buy Q's at .50 Fib & volume support 28.86-28.91.
Can you dumb that down for us?
Any direct Federal rescue/restructuring has to be conceived as an alternative to bankruptcy that is different from bankruptcy primarliy in speed and radicalness of the restructuring - in other words, it should be done so that any company that has any life left to it would prefer to go through bankruptcy if it had a choice.
I like this a lot, good point indeed on how bailouts should be done in the real world.
My prediction is DSL goes down tonight. There was a going concern letter so it's going to be tough for Sheila to delay any longer.
Who's been worse, Cerberus or Apollo?
Realogy Corp., owner of the Century 21 and Coldwell Banker brands, is at risk of violating the terms of its bank loans and is offering to exchange bonds at a discount for new debt.
Leon Black's buyout firm Apollo Management LP, which bought Realogy for $6.6 billion in April 2007, is trying to reduce debt by almost $600 million and stave off default at the Parsippany, New Jersey-based real-estate broker, according to a regulatory filing dated yesterday.
Bond Girl writes:
You all are being unfair to Sheila Bair. She's just a warm and fuzzy person like that. Heck, she's even written a children's book.
So has <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Johnny-Appleseed-Rabbit-Howard-Kunstler/dp/0689800622/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226679736&sr=1-7>James Howard Kunstler
"I heard Peter Schiff say recently that "Foreclosures are the market".
He must be reading this blog, because we've been saying that for 9 months.
Flower writes:
Can you dumb that down for us?
Teachnical trading jargon. Mousie is smart, but if you don't understand it, best not to listen too close.
Ask for a book that will teach you instead (can't help you there, I'm not a technical trader).
How does the ol song go, "Rally Monkey's Gone to Heaven..."
there was a guy
an under water guy who controlled the sea
got killed by ten million pounds of sludge
from new york and new jersey
this monkey's gone to heaven
the creature in the sky
got sucked in a hole
now there's a hole in the sky
and the ground's not cold
and if the ground's not cold
everything is gonna burn
we'll all take turns
i'll get mine, too
this monkey's gone to have
Anyone watching mini me? I think he's a cyborg.
I heard Peter Schiff say recently that "Foreclosures are the market".
I agree completely. I have 16 short sales in process right now, and I believe they represent market value, not below market value.
Here locally I think REOs are the market. Putting that a listing is a foreclosure is the best advertising someone can do. Buyers come in droves hoping for a deal and submit bids. Short sales that aren't pre-approved get shunned and few bids (and lower prices). Pre-approved short sales move just fine.
Sparhawk
I think in a few cases the companies or industries should not be allowed a choice, just like succesful organized crime syndicates are not allowed a choice.
This logic already exists in practice. There are regulations that forbid certain kinds of business practices even when the practices are remunerative: e.g., pure food and drug laws, pollution regulations, accounting regulations, etc.
Certains kinds of business activities are too dangerous to be allowed. Sometimes that fits the model of poisoning the milk supply. Sometimes it can be more about corroding the entire marketplace or jeopardizing the entire industrial base (which can be an economic, social, and national security danger all rolled into one).
To: Freddie Mac
From: Килгор Траут
Re: Your Bailout Request
Get in line ( ie. a long line)..
Cordially,
Килгор Траут
White House says talking to Congress about accelerating $25 billion auto loans already appropriated
A forecast so negative (or shall we ssay honest?) would need to be followed instantly by implementation of a massive restructuring plan.
Joe, it was central planning that got us into this mess. There is no sense hoping for smarter central planning because central planning is never smart. As comrade misean dope says, "Hayek nailed it."
What's a republic?
It's actually a little nasty. Bazooka Hank should be up there. I imagine his hearing may beat the Super Bowl.
White House says talking to Congress about accelerating $25 billion auto loans already appropriated
So at the current burn rate, that'll get them to the end of 2009Q1.
This sucker's going down.
Ministry of Truth writes:
White House says talking to Congress about accelerating $25 billion auto loans already appropriated
But GM's market cap is less than $2B...
Just buy them.
Yep see my comment on garbage condos in the previous thread.
I tell people that the only condos I would buy are old ones full of old people (heck I am an old person), where they mostly have low or no mtges and the ferocious little old ladies make everybody toe the line. These are hardly luxury housing, but I would say they've only gone down 10-15% compared to all the losses elsewhere. Maybe even only 5%. In Hialeah, working class, dense, the older latinas and latinos can walk to the Sedanos (Cuban grocery store) and the clinic.
Poor stooge. His boss tells him not to reveal anything, and now he's facing perjury.
I agree DSL is on death watch, there down 2% +/- right now. But I think the rats are jumping ship at GFG. down 35%.
I opened up a CD in September there oh well, I guess get to experience this FDIC thingy?
silvertoes,
Eclipse shafting you all on payroll is an outrage. Mgmt is either incompetent or corrupt; because if they were watching their cash correctly they would have forecast shutting down and prepared for BK. Employee wages are first in line for cash distribution in a BK. There's a lawsuit in there. Too bad, I was hoping Eclipse would make a difference in aviation biz.
Not necessarily worse for wall street. Fannie/Freddie were ENTIRELY in the mortgage business. Wall street is more diversified. Also Fannie/Freddie BOUGHT a lot of crappy loans even if they didnt' themselves securitize them. 50% of ALL loans are guaranteed or owned by Fannie/Freddie. Wall street deserves at least half the blame for this crisis. But Fannie/Freddie aren't far behind.
Interesting Times writes:
But GM's market cap is less than $2B...
Just buy them.
They won't for the same reason they avoid more than 80% equity in AIG. There are a lot of companies that simply have debt loads that are too big to bear. Companies like Sun, GM, Nortel, GE, etc are strong companies in their respective fields -- but the most they can do is tread water until the debt is restructured
@Goodridge
Doesn't seem like Wall Street is really getting the blame -- either by the media, market reaction to their stocks, or govts reactions to letting them keep dividends, etc.
Kidbuck
The impossibility of full central planning was part of my point. A full frontal forecast from the WH would need to be followed by central planning. I suggested something different: a mixed response, which worked well in Sweden, worked well in Malaysia, etc.
But central planning is not at all why we are in this mess. To the contrary, it stems from exempting the CDS market from regulation and then exempting the private sub-prime lenders from serious oversight, and also from the laissez-faire belief that tax cuts and deregulating are always good.
Put that all together with stupid invasions of other countries and torture and you've got the Bush Admn's bankrupting of America.
will lurk more later.
ciao comrades
Here goes Silicon Valley
Sun Microsystems to cut up to 6,000 jobs
Sun Microsystems to cut up to 6,000 jobs
| Reuters
The IT bubble is a bursti
but the most they can do is tread water until the debt is restructured
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.14.08 - 11:38 am | #
Oh yeah... I heard there was a term for that.... bankruptcy
I personally would pay to see a Cerberus-Apollo cage deathmatch. Three headed dog from hell vs sun god...would be quite a show.
moqui writes:
I agree DSL is on death watch, there down 2% +/- right now. But I think the rats are jumping ship at GFG. down 35%.
GFG now trading at $1.34.
$2.50 Nov puts are trading at $0.95/$1.25 (illiquid, so high spread).
The $2.50 puts are intrinsically worth $1.16. You could quickly double your money buying $2.50 puts if indeed today were FDIC Friday for that bank
Issa just nailed Kashkari on taxpayer shifting wealth to banks.
I live in Louisiana. Our big teaching hospital was Charity in New Orleans. After it was destroyed politicans insisted that it be rebuilt in New Orleans. It could easily be rebuilt in Baton Rouge out of flood reach and above sea level, but no...
Texas has the same system. A large teaching hopital located on a island. The teaching hospital could easily be built in Dallas or San Antoino, but no...
thanks sparhawk!
GFG 36%
Sucking thumb in fetal position.
Mommy
This is a great hearing, CR.
Also read the Lewis article. Better than Liar's Poker. Lewis summed it up "while securitizing, and selling even the credit default swaps, Wall Street was unknowingly assuring their own bankruptcy in exchange for the billions in up front fees".
Sick and sicker.
In a death match versus a three headed dog and a sun god, I pick them both to die.
Elijah Cummings up again. Don't miss it.
EHP,
Why can't GM file for bankruptcy and THEN let the US government provide credit/funding for restructuring to allow for a more viable enterprise? This ofcourse would involve serious dumping of labor contracts and even the pension plans to the PBGC. This is something a Republican administration could have done but definitely not feasible with the incoming Democratic admin.
Companies like Sun, GM, Nortel, GE, etc are strong companies in their respective fields -- but the most they can do is tread water until the debt is restructured
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.14.08 - 11:38 am | #
Sril.
You are assuming that repubs are repubs and mean what they say about small gov't.
Alas, they don't.
Wachovia Bank has foreclosed on a 1,700-acre development in Las Vegas before a single home was built.
The Las Vegas Sun reports that Focus Property Group chief John Ritter acknowledged the lender has seized the property once slated for 16,000 homes.
Ritter made the comment Thursday at a housing conference in Las Vegas. Focus Property Group and eight other builders bought the land for $510 million in 2005.
In October, Wachovia filed a lawsuit naming Focus and its partners for defaulting on payments for the Kyle Canyon development.
The other partners in the deal were Toll Brothers, Lennar Homes, Pulte Homes, KB Home, Kimball Hill Homes, Woodside Homes, Meritage Homes and Ryland Homes.
Dow down a bit over 300. Remember when that was a lot and it was so much higher. But nothing counts til the last 5 minutes.
" Interesting Times writes:
Ministry of Truth writes:
White House says talking to Congress about accelerating $25 billion auto loans already appropriated
But GM's market cap is less than $2B...
Just buy them.
Interesting Times | 11.14.08 - 11:33 am | # "
Yeah, and take over the $500 billion pension plan too.
Funny that Summers is discounted for his Clinton connections and that Rubin is still a viable candidate.
hilariously funny.....
I'd go for Donald Duck at this point...can't be any worse then what we've got now.
Ciao
MS
Another 1 o'clock surprise today?
Lately, strange things have a way of repeating.
Interesting Times, sril; re: GM/bankruptcy
I was pointing out the benefits to the long neglected option of bankruptcy. Pundits/lobbyists argue that people would no longer buy cars from them, but that's a hollow argument.
I don't think GM will go bankrupt. They have generations of political connections at their disposal in addition to those from Ford, Chrysler, and Cerberus. There is also room to maneuver a cute deal that they can sell well enough to the public before the next disaster strikes.
As for wasted money, I think the automakers fuss is largely overblown and emotional when you see what has already transpired.
In the big scheme of things, it's not what they're spending money on but how much they're spending that is crucial to their current objectives
rich-
yep...guessing the same here. But that's all it is....they have to keep it up for next week's op. ex.
Payouts will be massive should they not be able to create "up".
Ciao
MS
I DON'T THINK ANYBODY REALIZES HOW BIG THIS IS!
NEGATIVE NET WORTH CONSTITUTES A CREDIT DEFAULT EVENT FOR FREDDIE CDS CONTRACTS!
YOU THINK THE STRESSES OF THE LEHMAN UNWIND WERE BIG, WAIT TILL THIS TSUNAMI HITS!
THE TED SPREAD IS UP AGAIN TODAY, AND WILL GO STRATOSPHERIC AS THE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS CREDIT EVENT!
Bilbray accusing Paulson of misleading public on soundness of Fnm and Fre.
1:00 timing..maybe they announce auto bailout....that will juice it enough
Got a number for the CDS?
Yeah, it's bad lb, but lose the all caps for the entire post, it detracts.
I don't know what choice we have in this mess. Sam and Ben have no idea what going on, their strategies fluctuate with every new crisis. This sucks.
rich writes:
For what it's worth, gold and silver haven't yet got hammered (like oil) in today's market rout.
It may be a one-day wonder. But it's something
Tiny markets, could be a big rally and its impact on other then gold bugs very small. Its all about the Yen/dollar and whether the emerging markets can be kept afoat to provide some export driven business for Japan and the US.
But central planning is not at all why we are in this mess.
Looking to the government to do anything as complicated as regulating a CDS market is putting way to much faith in government. In theory it would be nice if all contracts were enforced by government. But, stuff like CDS was strictly buyer beware.
The level playing field was done with enactment of the 16th Amendment. All we have witnessed since was mostly inevitable.
I'm just pissed that government hasn't chosen me to be a winner.
The perception of letting C stay in the single digits has also got to be a factor. Not that it really mean's much however the law of round "cute" number points weighs heavily methinks.
Ciao
MS
Rich
Nothing would be shocking at this point.
FM cds default is interesting too.
It's amazing how many people on these blogs are, even at this late date, not only cheerleading for capitalism and individualistic social and enconomic policies but doing so with ear-splitting shrillness, as if screaming louder will make you right.
In the early nineties the Soviet system fell apart because it was so rife with corruption and graft that it could no longer do what it was intended for, that being to provide for the welfare of its subjects. We are witnessing proof positive that the fact that our system is/was capitalist did not make it immune to the very same corruption and graft, and now it is falling apart and surely as the sun rises, it will be replaced.
Those of you who think you can wrap yourselves in ideology and your own personal "pile of gold" (take the meaning literally and figuratively) and weather this are sadly, grossly wrong. Your demise will only be longer and more painful if you align yourself with this dead, rotting system. You are outnumbered by a massive heavily armed mob and they will not eat ammunition; they will use their last bullets to take what you have away from you. You can share and have some too or you can die fighting a mob.
Your choice.
Not listed on DTCC site.
It may be worth repeating that a wide spectrum of asset-backed-linked derivative products depend on new contracts to be signed for future cash flow obligations pools -- Hence, and ipto facto, the game of synthetic growth distortion will revert back to growth which will be far less robust, a time when risk was a concern, a time when fundamentals mattered, a time when dividend checks mattered....
FORD MOTOR COMPANY
form10q.htm
Ford Credit may need to further reduce the amount of finance receivables and operating leases it purchases or originates; this reduction could reduce Ford Credit's ongoing profits and adversely affect its ability to support the sale of Ford vehicles.
About 11% of Ford Credit's committed capacity is up for renewal in the fourth quarter of 2008. Given the nature of many of Ford Credit's asset-backed committed facilities, it has the ability to obtain term funding up to the time that the facilities mature. Any outstanding debt at the maturity of the facilities remains outstanding through the term of the underlying assets.
shit 8000 seems to be a good support
i suggest we get rid of that today
peeps have to get back to normal life
tracking markets is making us feel like shit
Ministry of Truth writes:
Here goes Silicon Valley
I wonder. How concentrated are the layoffs?
Oh, I've been reading a bunch on the troubles in the venture capital market. That is getting scaray and Silicon Valley, LA (movies, internet companies), and bio-tech are going to take it in the shorts. (I'm sure someone else will point out the whole list...)
Interesting times ahead.
So obviously to any card carrying NAR member this means its a great time to buy! ROTFLMAO
Got Popcorn?
Neil
If conditions worsened dramatically for Freddie and Fannie, imagine how bad it is for Wall Street MBS and loans held by lenders like Wachovia (Wells Fargo) and WaMu (JPMorgan Chase).
Most of our banks are insolvent. The banks (like Goldman) that pretended to be making money as the bust gathered speed were doing so on the basis of uncollectable hedges primarily with AIG.
In essesnce, Goldman's 2006, 2007 & 2008 bonuses are/were insured and paid by the U.S. Taxpayer via the AIG bailout.
What a sham(e).
I wonder. How concentrated are the layoffs?
Re: Sun, AFAIK they haven't started telling people who will be cut, they merely gave a warning a few days ago that cuts were coming.
<a href="http://img372.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bullishflagqqqqbc9.png>Chart of the day: Q's - today's pullback a buyer's delight.
No economic system is immune from corruption. I just want balance. If the free market system doesn't work well for certain things, like possibly banking, then we need to socialize the profits. Either that or let them fail.
SHLD is breaking down today...I guess Cramer calling Eddie "Buy at the top" Lampert the next WB was wrong?
Citi Firing 60000 Chairman May Still Lose Job: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
Citi firing an additional 60,000 workers.
8000 seems to be a good support
i suggest we get rid of that today
After the incredible runup yesterday it would take a ridiculous drop to retest the lows. But I guess anything can happen.
BankUnited, the bank I love to hate, is down to 39 cents. Giggle, giggle.
haloscan test
Committee Holds Hearing on Hedge Funds and the Financial Market Nov 13
Hearing: Is Treasury Using Bailout Funds to Increase Foreclosure Prevention, as Congress Intended? Nov 14
Testimony and video available at links, if anyone is still interested.
re: Market
I read my horoscope today, and the coded message from the PPT indicates a big rally in about an hour.
Why is C starting to go down like mad now?
below 8.90
MOT,
I pay attention to those large land developments going back to the lender. It seems to be an every day occurrence now and picking up velocity. I truly believe this is the final chapter of most homebuilders. Mass BKs to follow shortly.
The saddest part about this entire fiancial ponzi scheme is that it was SOOOOO obvious.
The only logical conclusion is that Bernanke and Greenspan were knowing aides in the looting of America via financial fraud.
Liz, BankUnited is my pick for BFF watch today.
This is getting out of control
First, Detroit. Now Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Phoenix are trying to get underneath the $700 TARP.
The federal government is providing support for the financial industry,'' said Luke Butler, a spokesman for Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, who organized the effort.Cities could use some support, too.''
Of course, Paulson is not authorized to use TARP funds on municipalities; Congress would have to amend the EESA. I can't imagine that red state senators are going to be pleased with the thought of bailing out mostly blue-cities.
U.S. Cities, Reeling From Deficits, Seek Bailout Cash (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Agreed Elvis.
Don't know how Lennar is hanging in there.
Why is C starting to go down like mad now?
Because they are insolvent. That $25 billion from the Gov't is a drop in the bucket.
MS writes:
The perception of letting C stay in the single digits has also got to be a factor. Not that it really mean's much however the law of round "cute" number points weighs heavily methinks.
Yeah, it's a bad deal to have a single-letter stock ticker below $10.
Instead of Hands Across America, it's "Hands Out Across America"...
WASHINGTON (AP) - Three big city mayors asked the federal government Friday to use a portion of the $700 billion financial bailout to assist struggling cities.
The mayors sought help with their pension costs, infrastructure investment and cash-flow problems stemming from the global financial crisis.
The mayorsMichael Nutter of Philadelphia, Shirley Franklin of Atlanta and Phil Gordon of Phoenixmade their request in a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
Nutter said cities are facing an economic crisis not seen since the Depression and need help just like financial institutions.
"I want to make sure that cities and metro areas are at the table, that their voices are being heard, that our challenges and problems are well understood, so that we can get relief," Nutter said.
President-elect Barack Obama has also called for some sort of aid to state and local governments so they don't have to raise taxes or lay off workers while the federal government is trying to revive the economy, but he hasn't proposed or endorsed a specific aid plan.
I posted this before, but I used to work for the chief honcho of BankU and he is both stupid and evil.
PCA-
You are hilarious today.....
You don't factor in any manipulation in you analysis do ya?
Ciao
MS
Why is C starting to go down like mad now?
Because they are insolvent
They why are GM, F , MS etc not down to ZERO
"Thats Ballgame Comrades writes:
Instead of Hands Across America, it's "Hands Out Across America"..."
I wish the construction workers would have done Hammers Across America to raise money for their unemployed.
MS,
We are close to a great buy. Stone's throw. . .
lawyerliz,
Lennar could be sticking around due to ability to delay recognition of losses by delaying official default. Also the stock by last count was 90% institutionally owned. The cost recovery from a default would be less than the direct and indirect systemic costs to the banks.
Interesting reports from commenters about one by one banks foreclosing choice deals. There probably will come a watershed moment in the future
"Ministry of Truth writes:
Here goes Silicon Valley
Sun Microsystems to cut up to 6,000 jobs
o...E4AD3M320081114
Page Not Found | Reuters.com
The IT bubble is a burstin'"
No word on where those layoffs will take place, but I suspect that few of them will be in India.
A friend has been a Sun employee in SV for many years, but only by dancing as fast as he can. He was in support, and switched to QA just before Sun shipped support operations overseas. I wonder if he'll make it this time.
The problem with the "free market" was the level of influence the biggest players had/have within our government, not the system itself. The more profits are privatized, while losses are socialized, the more it seems that the players that took their profits up front acted rationally in their own self-interest.
The problem now is that those same players still have enough influence in our government that we will not/cannot do what is necessary to get those profits back. As a result, we are screwed.
However, this does not mean that the "free market" is broken. It just means that in the future we will need to decide whether we want to privitize or socialize both profits and losses. That and everyone in Washington should be run out of town on a rail.
"Why is C starting to go down like mad now?"
First one to Zero wins...C, F, GGP, etc..
Taubman Survey Reveals Black Friday Shopping Predictions
Taubman Centers on sale today, down 12%
On average, shoppers reported that they expect to spend $400 on Black Friday alone. When asked what they planned to buy, most reported that clothing is at the top of their list. Three-out-of-four (76%) say they'll be looking for women's apparel while more than half (55%) will be in the men's departments.
Taubman Centers, Inc. (NYSE: TCO - News) is a real estate investment trust engaged in the development and management of regional and super regional shopping centers. Taubman's 24 U.S. owned and/or managed properties, the most productive in the industry, serve major markets from coast to coast
Cummings speaks plain English.
PCA-
Go ahead buy then.....and it most likely will turn out like your last buy in of the SPY.
BTW the buy in point was about this time yesterday.....
Ciao
MS
RE Citi from link above:
"Citi CEO Vikram Pandit has ordered business unit heads to cut employee compensation costs by 25%, the WSJ says. This could lead to 60,000 firings by next year. The cuts will include the investment banking division. The firm has already fired 23,000 people over the past year, reducing its global workforce to 352,000...The company vehemently denied the WSJ's report yesterday that Chairman Win Bisschof may soon be sent packing. The WSJ says it stands by its story...Vik Pandit bought 750,000 of thee 1.2 million shares Citi brass scooped up yesterday. This sounds bold at first, but it's still chicken feed (under $10 million), and its value was likely calculated to be higher than that in getting everyone to talk about how Citi management is buying...Citi is jacking up the interest rates on its credit cards, punishing already overwhelmed consumers...Citigroup is notifying some credit-card customers that their interest rates are being raised by an average of three percentage points."
Goodness...they're ignoring Paulson's directive to lend! Notice also the disclosure of blatant manipulation of the stock price.
I have a CC from Citi, however I have a zero balance and the card is in the freezer.
Well, if the mkt has a 1 pm surprise, it has a lot of down to get thru before it heads up.
michael L,
There is a med school in Dallas.
Citi firing an additional 60,000 workers.
Finally I can stop saying layoffs are only being hinted at. Now they're finally happening. Note: There are a ton to come in 2Q2009 and 3Q2009. Most of my friends work for companies planning layoffs (multiple industries, multiple states). We have people we are cutting spending just because they have friends being laid off (I'm talking good workers who have jobs set for 3+ years) Hmmm...
Obviously this means Christmas sales will beat expectations! /snark
Got Popcorn?
Neil
The real question is why did C go up yesterday.
I have a Citi CC, too. Need to buy things with my points before that stop that program.
re: Citi / 60,000 cuts link
Guy says friend who contracts at Citi said they didn't have paper towel in the bathrooms anymore
rich-
yep...guessing the same here. But that's all it is....they have to keep it up for next week's op. ex.
Sigh.
If you look at the last ten years of opex in SPY, the average 5day return (close friday before to close on opex Friday) is +0.20%. Less than 1% move, and only slightly positive.
The skew is -0.75, so actually the distribution is left leaning, meaning DOWN is more likely than up.
OK, maybe recent history is different:
Last two years: average +0.58% (so slightly more positive, but not by much), skew -0.86.
OpEx is a nothingburger.
"Guy says friend who contracts at Citi said they didn't have paper towel in the bathrooms anymore
EvilHenryPaulson"
I bet they still use $100 bills to wipe their asses in the executive bathrooms.
There is a med school in Dallas.
Journeyman
There are three that I know of (a relative graduated from one and did classes for specialty training at at least two others).
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I have a CC from Citi, however I have a zero balance and the card is in the freezer.
Zombie Kung Fu Panda | Homepage | 11.14.08 - 12:17 pm | #
I'm running a $17k balance with them until I pay it off from an interest-bearing account next month, the balance was at 0% for all of this year. Thanks for the free money, Pandit!
(I realize you didn't make any interest from your loan to me, but it's ok, because you would have just lent that money to some other consumer who would have defaulted... I just saved you a bundle)
When did the FDIC get into the mortgage business?
Sparhawk,
Am I missing something or did Citi give you a 0% interest for 1 yr credit card? No catch?
Kashkari in tears.
Kucinich:
"We know you're working hard, the question is who you're working for"
LaSalle Hotel Properties Rescinds Prior Outlook
LaSalle Hotel Properties (NYSE:LHO) today rescinded its prior outlook for 2008 due to the continued rapid deterioration in the overall economic environment and lack of clarity related to its negative impact on the operating fundamentals of the lodging sector.
At this time we do not believe that we can
provide a credible outlook for the remainder of the year as expected performance at our hotels continues to decline as demonstrated by our portfolio experiencing a RevPAR decline of approximately 11.4% in October versus our projected decline of 6.7% just three weeks ago...blah, blah, yap, yap...
Dear Mr. Future,
My (cold, not yet dead) hands await your arrival.
When did the FDIC get into the mortgage business?
When did the Fed get into the foreign loan business?
All sorts of stuff happens that shouldn't.
yogi, so is Kashkari a chump?
Or is it we the taxpayers?
We're in a lick of trouble here, I think.
When did the FDIC get into the mortgage business?
July 11, 2008
Am I missing something or did Citi give you a 0% interest for 1 yr credit card? No catch?
I had something similiar in 2006. It was the only reason I opened the card.
Yes, cards are still doing that.
Sadly, I locked down all my credit reports, so opening a card is no longer as simple as returning a mailer or picking up the phone.
The free money is out there.
lawyerliz,
Are you still feeling down that you didn't get back in the mkt?
Our goverment as we have known it is gone.
Fdic in Mortgage Business.
Scarey as hell....
"OpEx is a nothingburger."
No it is not. Historical data means nothing when you get swings of 10% in one day.
Go look at the last 9 months of the market swings before op. ex week and during....
That is not a "nothingburger"
Ciao
MS
Am I missing something or did Citi give you a 0% interest for 1 yr credit card? No catch?
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.14.08 - 12:23 pm | #
Yup, no catch. I applied Nov '07, they gave me a $9k credit line with a no-fee "0% for a year" balance transfer.
A day after I got the card, I clicked their "request a credit limit increase" button and asked for $22k, they gave me $21.5k (note that this was in Nov 2007!).
Wrote myself a check for $20k that I've been keeping at CFC for most of this year. I'll pay it off in December. Like I said, I'm merely charging a small fee to keep their money safe from their irresponsibility.
Sparhawk,
Am I missing something or did Citi give you a 0% interest for 1 yr credit card? No catch?
EvilHenryPaulson
I had one of those last year. Yeah, during the boom years CC companies were handing them out like candy. Did the same thing. Paid it off right before the interest kicked in, now it sits in a drawer. Thanks for the free loan Citi!
The market will remain at its low for the day...G20 folks have to see that taxpayer money is necessary to save the world...
self, remove tinfoil hat
Sadly, I locked down all my credit reports
How does one do this?
@Shnaps
FDIC lays out broad home loan modification plan
FDIC lays out broad home loan modification plan
| Reuters
$1000 to modify loans to good standards ( full doc , no more than 31% income ) and promising %50 of the losses when they default anyways.
"No word on where those layoffs will take place, but I suspect that few of them will be in India."
BT just laid off 10k in India yesterday.
Off-shoring is turning out to be a bust. Just like outsourcing was back in 2000-2001 in tech. Very low ROI at the end of the day.
Read up on how little high-level access the Indian PM/.gov is getting to President-elect Obama. Protectionism will be the name of the game for the next few years.
I think people will be surprised how many Western companies cut jobs in India over the next 12 months.
patient renter,
Ask Todd Davis, his social security number is 457-55-5462.
Future:
you're so stunningly incorrect that I suspect it's worthless to point out the gaping holes in your deeply flawed analysis
Go look at the last 9 months of the market swings before op. ex week and during....
That is not a "nothingburger"
Here's this year, opex date and market return% from friday before to friday close:
1/18/2008\t-5.7
2/15/2008\t1.5
3/20/2008\t0.8
4/18/2008\t3.8
5/16/2008\t2.7
6/20/2008\t-2.8
7/18/2008\t1.7
8/15/2008\t0.6
9/19/2008\t-0.9
10/17/2008\t5.3
average: 0.69%
big ups, and big downs, and big nothings.
it's just noise.
Treasury through TARP has covered some businesses with others having their hands out. So, tell me, how many company's in the S&P500 have not asked for govt funds? Will this affect the S&P 500 index?
This is from a month ago:
DiamondRock Hospitality Co posted lower quarterly funds from operations (FFO) as revenue per available room fell, but the company backed its full-year outlook.
SF Chronicle check out both article pictures, top left
For all you San Fran people
today..i think PPT cant digest the fall
they will be burnt to death when the market gathers steam dowards
T - 3 minutes folks
Big layoffs coming from WAMU, to be announced Dec 1. They have been doing interviews all month at the Seattle headquarters. Even top execs had to interview. My daughter's college roomie's father is a VP and he had to go through the process. Was told Dec 1 was "D-Day".
You forgot the week before....
Key point made in my original response.
Ciao
MS
hater writes:
today..i think PPT cant digest the fall
The books that speak, they tell me of squirrel flapjacks and market fixing.
@Reformed Dope Brontide:
yeah, I saw Sheila's plan. For fun, search Amazon for "Sheila Bair"...it responds "Did you mean Sheila Hair? Haha. [If any programmers at Amazon are reading, please hard-code that error-handing to reply 'did you mean Greasy Hair? there's a $100 gift card to Ruby Tuesday's in it for you.]
The plan has one nessesary element, paying servicers to modify. But 50% of future losses with no cap?!? That's pretty rich. Should push the outrage meter up a coupla notches. On the flipside, that outta at least make a dent. Well, at least for whole loans where no fraud was involved, anyway.
Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, will take ``radical actions'' to reach earnings targets next year amid a spreading global recession, Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris said.
Dow and others I think will be taking some radical actions to take out capacity,'' said Liveris, 54.There could be acceleration of capacity rationalization because of acute pain.''
This is as bad as we have ever seen it in our lifetimes,'' Liveris said.We could be looking at a couple years of trough and severe correction.''
Dow has announced plans to cut spending and reduce working capital this year in addition to plant closings, which Liveris hasn't detailed. The company has sufficient cash flow to maintain its dividend through the recession, Liveris said.
In a terrible market, a value stock has to protect its dividend,'' Liveris said.This company and this CEO will protect the dividend.''
Thanks for the reminder, Elvis. Just called the wife and she is going to redeem all our points from the Citi card.
BTW, Graceland is not that impressive...thirty years ago it was probably quite grand, but now it just looks like an average McMansion.
Home Depot wants TARP, too
My God!
Textron, AEP Ask for Access to Commercial-Paper Fund (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
The sooner C makes it to the rocks, the sooner they get a bailout.
EHP,
That was very evil of you
We're gonna need a bigger TARP
Video of HomeDepo asking for bailout:
YouTube - Puppy Whining
In a terrible market, a value stock has to protect its dividend,'' Liveris said.This company and this CEO will protect the dividend.''
Translation: We need access to the TARP!
Neil writes
"So obviously to any card carrying NAR member this means its a great time to buy! ROTFLMAO"
Also a great time to buy if you're a card carrying NRA member.
"BTW, Graceland is not that impressive...thirty years ago it was probably quite grand, but now it just looks like an average McMansion.
Zombie Kung Fu Panda"
Kinda like Dolly Parton.
Speed writes:
We're gonna need a bigger TARP
Dr. Egon Spengler: I'm worried, Ray. All my readings point to something big on the horizon.
Winston Zeddemore: What do you mean, big?
Dr. Egon Spengler: Well, let's say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of psychokinetic energy in the New York area. Based on this morning's reading, it would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds.
We are naturally the chump.
But Kashkari is unlikely to have a public career, and not sure whether the private sector can use him either.
I sure wish he had stabbed Hank in the bank. He's young and intelligent, and could be rehabilitated.
"We are close to a great buy. Stone's throw. . ."
I don't know about you, but I can throw a stone a long way down an elevator shaft...
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Kona-hilarious.
TIIIIIMBERRRRRR...Ok, hold on, it'll take a few minutes before you here the crash. Again:)
I'm submitting a TARP application for my piece of the $600 billion. I figure that they owe me about $3000 (600 billion divided by 200 million).
" Assume Crash Positions! writes:
"We are close to a great buy. Stone's throw. . ."
I don't know about you, but I can throw a stone a long way down an elevator shaft...
Assume Crash Positions! | Homepage | 11.14.08 - 12:49 pm | # "
An especially long way down in those tall, expensive, and soon-to-be empty Citibank buildings.
The FDIC Chair is a five year term to make the position semi-autonomous from the Executive.
She's there until 2011.
Basel Too | 11.14.08 - 11:22 am | #
Sorry, Greasy Hair Bair serves at the definite pleasure of the president regardless of an apointment timeline - but I doubt that she will be replaced since she has a Barney friend. She may resign if the job pressures get too great and they are already bigger than the 1920s because there was no FDIC then.
Only Halfway Through the Foreclosure Crisis? - Political Radar
Only Halfway Through the Foreclosure Crisis?
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November 13, 2008 4:21 PM
ABC News' Z. Byron Wolf Reports from Capitol Hill: Martin Eakes, who runs the Center for Responsible Lending, told the Senate Banking Committee in February 2007 that the U.S. was on the precipice of two million foreclosures for subprime loans. Today, the committee chairman, Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., called Eakes prescient and said the two million figure "seems almost quaint."
Eakes, however, sees no end to the foreclosure crisis in sight.
"We're only halfway through subprime loans alone, not to mention a third of the way or less through the adjustable or arm," he told the committee today, of foreclosures. Eakes calls the proposal by FDIC Commissioner Sheila Bair (and rejected, apparently by the Treasury Department) to use taxpayer money for a homeowner bailout "just an absolute no brainer."
It's a no brainer!
That's absolutely right - except for the half-way through part - we are only one-third of the way through the resets and recasts:
ALT-A: The Risk Abatement Disaster is Coming « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
And those bastards have only begun to take all of our money - their intention is to BK the USA, end all of those damn Socialist programs from FDR and Johnson, and implement a one world Fasco-Capitalist Kleptocracy that will enslave us once and for all:
Are These the Forging Fires of the NWO We Feel? « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
Did you not hear Sarcozy and other G20 leaders calling for a financial New World Order? They actually used those words, but if we write about the NWO we are called crackpots.
Well, there it is right in front of your fat American faces - do you believe it now?