Paulson...say it like it is: YOU ARE PRESERVING YOUR OWN.
Well, when we cut Christmas spending by 50%, we are preserving our own. The government can't make us spend money, but they can sure take it through inflation and taxes.
Humiliation may bring us the humility we need to clean up our own trash.
Paulson needs to be replaced as soon as possible. His initial "we must do this or die" plan of buying troubled assets directly was so obviously flawed on a fundamental level that every wise eye could see it. Now that he has changed course, even the excitable folks he could have won over with the "do this or die" sales pitch are starting to doubt.
Faith is his capital, and faith in whatever plan he enacts will have a dollar multiplying effect. If we truly must get the maximum impact from our dollars, whatever plan is implemented must not be carried out by paulson.
Perhaps he is hinting to us that anything he does up until the 20th of January will just be stalling measures, and that the markets must wait that long for any certain, final plan.
"We?" "We.. have humiliated ourselves as a nation?" What did I do? These guys who have been on the 'let's not play the blame game" meme - while letting the media outlets blame Carter and Clinton - are laughable.
Credit where credit is due. Any man who can get on a public stage and make a statement like that about a situation he helped perpetuate - well that man deserves props.
I know it's blasphemy to say so, but IMO the best thing Obama could do is keep Paulson around for another 12 months with carte blanche to do what needs to be done.
Paulson added. "I think the system has been stabilized. I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
CitiGroup Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit sought to reassure employees today, saying in an internal memo that the bank's revenue is strong and stable'' and its capitalplentiful.''
I think Hank may be stretching things to assume that we're going to bed at night any more at all...
6 writes: Credit where credit is due. Any man who can get on a public stage and make a statement like that about a situation he helped perpetuate - well that man deserves props.
Paulson added. "I think the system has been stabilized. I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
I'll also add that NONE of this will be cleaned up until the American electorate accepts its central role in demanding bread and circuses from its government and roundly and soundly rejecting candidates that tried to do the right thing.
Paulson isn't the problem. Shrub isn't the problem. Clinton wasn't the problem.
Wrong. He said yesterday he won't apologize when "facts" change. He stated that the changed fact was "our understanding of the magnitude of the problem."
Paulson was also saying it was all about imbalances of capital flows. And of course he said no one is to blame.
There is no one to blame for our lack of a National energy policy?
There is no one to blame for a terrible trade arrangement with China?
Those imbalances are just by chance? Hell no - they are the direct result of Republican laissez faire capitalism! The market is always right - if the Mid east is selling oil cheap, the market says why make your own? And if China is producing goods more cheaply than the US, the market says buy Chinese goods and lots of them.
The friggin market has no allegiance to any country - and this is what you get from laissez faire capitalism - imbalances with no one trying to correct them until it is too late. Damn I will be happy to see these guys get the hell out on January 20th.
i>steelhead writes:
What do you mean WE, Kemosabe...
Mushroom already commented but there's a better joke;
Long after they had retired the Lone Ranger visited his faithful companion on his ranch. As Tonto was giving his visitor a tour they crossed the cow pasture where he warned the Lone Ranger to not step in the "kemosabe..."
"We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation."...going foward
Either he is speaking also for Bernanke or else he has a frog up his ass.
(Says the frog...Hey Eagle, how high are we now?
Oh, about 3 Trillion feet says the Eagle.
Says the frog in a quivering voice...You wouldn't shit me now, would you?)
re: Market Rallying
Try inductive rather than deductive reasoning.
If the market was going to rally in the next year, and it doesn't go all the way down in one breath: when would it rally?
Answer: In the next month
- Fewer business days
- Fewer foreclosures, fewer sales by choice of homes
- Relative consumer peak of the year
- New president, holidays, optimism potential
- Layoffs delayed until the new year
- Possible contractual or tax incentives to spend before year end
- Relatively biggest bonus season, ahead of the tax rebates one
- Borrowing costs are decreasing, even for most of the lower rated paper it's cheaper than a year ago due to rate cuts
- Gas price decreases will free up spending power to other sectors
- There are almost no negative or unexpected or significant or shocking economic reports upcoming
The why it would not go down all at once is a more nuanced diatribe of market mechanics. Save for the atypical 1987 crash, it is a behaviour borne out empirically
I think the market is rallying because you are seeing leveraged hedge funds come back in. I know it sounds strange, when other hedge funds are deleveraging and folding. But that's what it smells like. Hedge funds love volatility.
rich,
Don't forget that there are underperforming/liquidating hedge funds with significant short positions. As such a hedge fund liquidation cannot be synonymous with a depressing of prices
{Wrong. He said yesterday he won't apologize when "facts" change. He stated that the changed fact was "our understanding of the magnitude of the problem."}
Isn't Paulson the guy who, as head of Golden Slacks, lobbied for a new law that unleashed the investment banks from restrictions on leverage, and arguably put lighter fluid on the entire financial industry? Maybe the fact that he needs to face is that he is the lead crook in this entire scenario.
Too bad we aren't Japan - he would be doing seppuku right about now . . . in America, people who humiliate the country get to be President and Sec. of Treasury . . . .
The why it would not go down all at once is a more nuanced diatribe of market mechanics. Save for the atypical 1987 crash, it is a behaviour borne out empirically
EvilHenryPaulson
I won't take the other side of your well reasoned argument but would merely point out the ever present 800 lb gorilla called "Already priced in."
You know, I don't like this Kash n Kerry idiot. I think he's a typical Wall Street sychophant, but these Congressman have no place to speak. They are as guilty as Kash n Kerry for what is taking place. They are nothing but Corporate Whores and they're going to call him a chump? Pot, meet Mr. Kettle.
Filter that with your cute little filter, Ken. Afterall, this blog should only be about market statistics and trading tips. The web is innundated with borderline aspergers cases. Why anyone would go to such efforts to filter a blog is beyong comprehension. They have the time to create a filter, but they don't have the time to look through the comments because they have a life? Give me a break. That's not a life. Hopefully, if this (economy failing) all goes according to plan, you'll have plenty of time on your hands. Maybe you can fashion a filter for your well water when that extra time comes.
"I think the system has been stabilized. I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
No, we are going to bed at night wondering how big our problems are.
"I think the system has been stabilized. I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
Funny, and I go to bed at night wondering if the system has been stabilized.
Sorry EHP, Winter tends to bring on depression in some people. Pakistan, Iran could flare up before Obama sits.
It could get cold, and many don't buy oil until the last minute. Big 3 could fail. CDS could blow up. Treasury overload. I'll stop now.
"I think the system has been stabilized. I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
My neighbors and co-workers go to bed at night wondering whether they will have a job next week.
Sheesh Morroco, if you don't want to filter, don't. But at least let the rest of us enjoy a tool that we find useful. Ken's just sharing something he built for his own use, so the rest of us can do the same. Personally, I'm grateful for that. Seems like you are inferring a lot from a little
First, not everybody in the nation acted irresponsible. Far from it.
A great many have acted irresponsibly, though, but it's not as if they weren't enticed to do so by Hank Paulson and his colleagues on Wall Street. If you wave candy in front of a child, they're going to take it and eat it. The candy should never have been waved, nor created, and the children should have acted like adults and realized the implications of the temptation.
6 writes: Another word for that is "learning from experience". I trust you're not opposed to the concept...
His successor is welcome to explore new options.
Given the magnitude of his failure, suicide or surrender of his wealth and retreat into humiliated obscurity are the appropriate responses.
Of course, this is the Bush administration, where "accepting responsiblity" means saying "Gee, I messed up" and continuing along like nothing happened.
It was HP who lobbied again and again for changes to leveraged dollars...He is one smart cookie he is walking away with millions in his bag and by now he probably knows the USD is toast so it would not suprize me to find out that it is Sw.Francs but also is probably in a Swiss account, too.
Perhaps I am inferring. If I am incorrect, forgive me. I can't stand cliques. I have a policy of inclusion IRL, and I extend that to my internet life. I don't like to exclude people, and I deplore it when others exclude.
Rob Dawg writes:
I won't take the other side of your well reasoned argument but would merely point out the ever present 800 lb gorilla called "Already priced in."
The market couldn't price the future in if its life depended on it. They are still far too optimistic on earnings. I still hear talking heads wax and wane about low P/Es on previous earnings.
S&P500 Earnings have a significant, double digit percentage, chance of dropping into the 40s before the end of the unwind/crisis. If you model a simple 20% decline per quarter from the peak ?96/97 EPS, you end up with a 60 avg for 2009 but a 48 EPS in Q4.
The market in general has no idea how these earnings are produced, how long the chain of income leads up to them. Each analyst operates in a bubble of sector performance and are ill-equipped to understand why market conditions deteriorate because there is no profit incentive to doing that in the good/stable times.
Comrade Pondering the Mess writes: I didn't humiliate this nation - but idiots like Paulson have, and yet they still take our money to spread to their crook buddies.
Amen.
Apparently nobody involved with the process knows how to tender or demand resignations.
So the humility is because he realized he has shit on his face and the average taxpayer is being asked to lick it off (or better known as a stimulus package)?
Gee great. The boys from GS feel bad after helping their buddies break the national piggy bank. Humility will be Paulson trying to sell his house in this market and hopefully joining the ranks of other well-tarped and connected smart guys in the unemployment line.
Well maybe they can apply for the Change We Need :
I do have some sympathy for Cash-n-Carry. They were brutal to him in that video. Desparate for someone to blame. Wonder if he knew that being congress' whipping boy was in his job discription.
I don't understand what is wrong with Paulson saying that we (as a nation) have humiliated ourselves. Most commentors on this blog did not humilitate themselves, but are only too happy to point out how humiliating the actions of j6p have been. It's pretty clear that the actions of the public in general have humiliated this nation. This may be one of the most coherent things that Paulson has said. For those that disagree, please tell me that you are proud of your countrymen that bought too much while making too little.
Japan : best cars in the world.
China : best cheap junk in the world.
Germany : best machines in the world.
Arabia: best crude in the world.
Australia : best ores in the world.
Mexico: best porous northern border.
If you watched the whole hearing, it was clear Kashkari was well-rehearsed, repeating stock phrases like, "I appreciate your perspective, Congressman" or "I am passionate about helping homeowners."
It came across as a smokescreen and Cummings called him on it at the end.
Kashkari's tears seemed real at the end. Who knows.
It ended with a classic:
Kashkari: "I can't work any harder"
Kucinich: "We know you're working hard.
The market couldn't price the future in if its life depended on it. They are still far too optimistic on earnings. I still hear talking heads wax and wane about low P/Es on previous earnings.
EvilHenryPaulson
Word. One of my warnings of late has been the insanely optimistic forward looking P/E ratio assumptions. That said, the market "can" price in the future. It is just that IMO right now it "isn't" pricing in that future.
Morocco Bama writes: I have a policy of inclusion IRL, and I extend that to my internet life. I don't like to exclude people, and I deplore it when others exclude.
The marketplace of ideas is just that, a marketplace. Some people sell good wares, some people sell trash.
Inclusion does not mean buying without shopping, inclusion means trying every ware.
I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
True. Those who were in that situation pulled their money out and are leaving it in cash. People are now going to bed at night wondering how much their taxes are going to go up, how much more value their house will lose, how much longer their job will last, and when the next big slice in purchasing power will come from the bureaucrats.
"We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here," Paulson said
But bankers and foolish investors still deserve their bonuses and dividends.
And don't worry Mr. & Mrs. Hard Working Prudent Tax Payer. You'll get your piece of the action as soon as we defeat this deflation problem and flip FNM, FRE, AIG, GM & F.
If you have a whole life insurance policy.. best advice take a loan against the cash value and do something wise with the cash like buy Perth Mint Certs.
And why does Krispy Kash Kreme have his head shaved bald? What the frikkin hell is up with that shit? Are they nothing more than a bunch of monkies immitating each other? Does he preen the dingleberries from Paulson's ass like a good monkey, too. Get some originality, fer Christ's Sake.
At times like this - one shouldnt necessarily consider next year's earnings. Warren Buffett and others have hinted at using a 10 year rolling PE average as a better guide (this sort of an average takes into account the average of business cycles). Admittedly even witht his rolling PE average - you need to consider that we're not in a normal business cycle but in an era for Depression era economics. But having said that - the bigger point it - next years earnings are NOT the indicator to consider.
Most commentors on this blog did not humilitate themselves, but are only too happy to point out how humiliating the actions of j6p have been
They call joe six pack "joe six pack" for a reason. Everybody wants free money. Bankers are supposed to vet loans. They utterly shirked their responsibility for bonuses. The blame lies with the bankers and their greed.
Under a gold standard, these foolish bailouts for bankers and borrowers would NOT be possible.
Why, so we get Larry Summers and all the other recycled Clinton deregulators? We'll hardly notice the difference. Don't hold your breath looking for Democratic change. Although, there will certainly be a lot of grandstanding hearings and fingerpointing.
Mr. Kashkari declined to speak about specific institutions, including PNC Financial and National City, but said federal banking regulators determine which banks are allowed to apply for the Treasury's capital injection program. In a heated exchange with Mr. Kucinich, however, he said Treasury shouldn't prop up struggling institutions.
"I don't think it's a good use of taxpayer money to put taxpayer capital into a financial institution that is going to fail," Mr. Kashkari said.
Mr. Kucinich fired back to Mr. Kashkari, "That statement that you just made you will hear about for the rest of your career."
Angry Saver,
I'm am not saying that bankers don't deserve much of the blame for the current situation, and I think that the bailouts are almost as humiliating as the situation itself, but j6p must bear some of the responsiblity for this crisis. The notion that everyone can blame this on the evil bankers that forced people to buy homes that they couldn't afford is ridiculous. As is the desire to blame whichever political party that you don't like.
This failure for anyone, at any level, to take any responsibility for this crisis leads me to believe that if the system were "fixed" tomorrow, we'd go ahead and do it all over again.
At times like this - one shouldnt necessarily consider next year's earnings. Warren Buffett...
The last decade is not a reliable baseline with which to make investment decisions going forward. The last ten years is indeed a great measure with which to maximize Warren Buffet's current investment position. See the difference?
"And why does Krispy Kash Kreme have his head shaved bald? What the frikkin hell is up with that shit? Are they nothing more than a bunch of monkies immitating each other? Does he preen the dingleberries from Paulson's ass like a good monkey, too. Get some originality, fer Christ's Sake."
For those keeping track, there are only 2 acceptable hairstyles for men in power: completely bald, like Dr. Evil, and perfect, bullet-proof hair that never ages, moves in the wind, or otherwise appears real. Nothing else is accepted.
That, and Kash and Karry is probably just a Paulson clone anyway.
Many praise Bernanke, because he's a student of the depression. He may be able to avoid some mistakes (how does he know what the mistakes were?), but it is much more complex than doing something differently. At every juncture there are at least two alternatives on the table. As time passes and more decisions are made, a decision maker has taken a path, but just one of the paths that could have been taken. Visualize climbing a branchy tree to see that there are many ways to climb the tree. The biggest problem may be that people may succumb to causal thinking -- because event 'a' preceeded event 'b', 'b' was caused by 'a'. Not so.
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury is about to approve capital injections into 20 more banks, said Neel Kashkari, the department's assistant secretary in charge of a $700 billion bank-rescue plan.
Paulson: "We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation"
In some ways, my boy is a genius.
Paulson: "By the time the process with Congress was completed, it was clear that we were facing a much more severe situation than we had envisioned earlier on"
In other ways, though, he can be such an idiot. I blame his father.
Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit sought to reassure employees today, saying in an internal memo that the bank's revenue is strong and stable'' and its capitalplentiful.''
Scratching my head here...what did that guy from BS say on a Friday...and by Monday something happened...
It seems that with this kind of volatility, you only have to have a bit of conviction to make some gain from your "bad" bet. The volatility will come and save you. Got caught holding bank shorts a few months ago when SEC ban short selling? Hold it a few more weeks and voila..
The past 10 years means little to a colossal factor like going from net borrowing to net saving.
EHP
While I dont disagree with either you or Dawg entirely - you will also note other factors such as the rise of emerging markets of tremendous size and scope in the last 10 years.
So yes, we are bound for structural adjustments and an amazing amount depends on human leadership factors in the next 2 years - IMO, I feel that when the market eventually rebounds it will be well in advance of "next years earnings."
I am by no means calling a bottom but trying like everyone else to rationalize where we are going. The tinfoilians on this board seem to think we're going to Dow 0 in the next 20 days.
"It seems that with this kind of volatility, you only have to have a bit of conviction to make some gain from your "bad" bet. The volatility will come and save you. Got caught holding bank shorts a few months ago when SEC ban short selling? Hold it a few more weeks and voila.."
Seriously. You could open equivalent short and long positions on the same day and have a decent chance of each position being in the green within the next month. Market timing these days is less about when to open and more about when to close.
Noble writes: I am by no means calling a bottom but trying like everyone else to rationalize where we are going. The tinfoilians on this board seem to think we're going to Dow 0 in the next 20 days.
What do you think a Treasury fail will look like in the markets, Noble?
What forfeit do you pay for being a Pollyanna proven wrong?
30 year bond auction yesterday? Are we concerned about the lack of foreign buyers? and the lower than average bid to cover? and the spike in yield above pre market expectations?
"Many praise Bernanke, because he's a student of the depression. He may be able to avoid some mistakes (how does he know what the mistakes were?), but it is much more complex than doing something differently."
Exactly. There are many, many chices (in aggregate) about what to do, and:
Making different choices doesn't guarantee success.
Making different choices may make things relatively worse.
There may be no "good" choice to get us out of this, other than time and deleveraging, and the best choice may be to cushion the fall and then aggressively re-ignite the pilot light when we are skidding along the bottom.
For a cushioned fall + aggressive re-ignition to work, we need to not have spent all of our resources trying to keep things from falling in the first place.
I don't think that the powers-that-be think that #4 above is a viable option, hence doing everything in our power to prevent the bottom.
"The biggest problem may be that people may succumb to causal thinking -- because event 'a' preceeded event 'b', 'b' was caused by 'a'. Not so."
An error in logic. Post hoc ergo propter hoc.
Something similar in rhetoric.
Greek: hysteron proteron.
It's inevitable, because it's so difficult to stand outside of our own thinking processes and assumptions, nor are these necessarily one to one maps of real processes. In plain English: Mistakes are inevitable. Add self-interest and you get a sometimes foul and murky stew. A mess.
We - WE - have humiliated ourselves as a nation. All of us. Collectively. Even you and you and you never made a bad economic decision, and even if I voted against Bush twice and railed against his usurpation of the Constitution, violations of human rights, crimes against humanity, and crimes agains the well-being of this country.
We humiliated ourselves. We let Bush steal his first election. We god awfully and unaccountably elected him again. Those of us who campaigned against him failed; we failed to stop him.
How did all this happen? We failed to educate our citizenry. We failed to demand active civic participation. We failed to demand an active press. We failed to demand the rule of law. We failed to think of the public and future because it was so often easier just to pursue our own individual ends. Those of us who didn't neglect those things failed in preventing the destruction of the country's economy and Constitution.
The failure is collective. The punishment is and will be collective. We will all suffer, and protesting that you didn't do anything wrong isn't going to refloat the country's GDP.
The other day some wise poster noted the explosion of schadenfreude on these threads. It overwhelms everything because of the fantasy that nothing should ever affect us as individuals, based on our own individual virtue. Sorry. It does not work that way.
We all let this happen. We will all pay.
That doesn't mean that Paulson and Bush and company shouldn't get their hides whipped.
It does mean that we have to climb out of this as a society.
Noble,
Those emerging market exporters get similarly crushed when there is less buying of their product. They should grow faster than developed countries, but so much of that rapid growth is due to financing and limitless expectations. That's out of the picture for now, China did not even grow at 9% -- they're lying.
There is both an incredible amount of potential growth, and potential liabilities in the developing world. Simple infrastructure improvements can improve efficiency and therefore production of goods and services. There is also a growing problem with family structure where the parents no longer live with the children into old age, while there are insufficient programs to deal with retirement and health care. I'm positive and optimistic for their future, but I'm only net positive not absolutely so.
I understand your perspective of wanting to be level headed, and to think for the long term. My opinion is that there will be no immediate bounce back, and I will operate off that assumption. As for not focusing on next year's earnings, gosh darn I will. And the year after that, and continue to do so until earnings stabilize and there is a P/E of 10 or lower -- then I will buy equity in the companies I feel strongly about in the long term, there is no reason to overpay.
If you really want a venue to stretch your wings, you could do worse than the corporate bond market right now.
Joe shmoe:"We humiliated ourselves. We let Bush steal his first election."
Joe, I think you don't get it. This had as much to do with Bush as it had to do with my sister...which means everything.
We as a society have been borrowing money to buy things we cannot afford, creating and growing a Ponzi scheme economy. Sure, it was Bush's fault...and congress' fault...and your neighbor's fault...and your kid's schoolteacher's fault...and even your fault.
Blame Bush all you want (and you will), but the true blame lies with us....the moment we stopped being "American Citizens", and started being "American Consumers", to the exclusion of all else.
Can HIG buyers really have swallowed the Let's become a bank and "cash out on TARP money" [Bloomberg anchor's phrase]line? There must be something else.
As for who has humiliated themselves, I agree with Angry Saver that it extends beyond j6p to include the bankers. But don't stop there, you've got to include the Fed, Congress and the last 4 Administrations in the group who all need a 12 Step Program to Acknowledge and Confess their Sins.
"We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here,"
Hank, you been looking at porn on the internet again? After your sorry ass performance, if I had any feelings, I'd be humiliated for my Alma Mater Studiorum and my band of pirates, too.
"The other day some wise poster noted the explosion of schadenfreude on these threads. It overwhelms everything because of the fantasy that nothing should ever affect us as individuals, based on our own individual virtue. Sorry. It does not work that way."
Yes. The complementary error is that somehow we can insulate ourselves by playing survivalist. Aside from the immorality and desperation of such a ploy, very few of us are equipped or isolated enough to carry it through successfully.
äüïöëÿ
Econoclast, above are the 'two dots' or the "umulaut" (you had the squiggly line from spanish).
Also for HTML unicode, you need "&(code);", not just the &
"There is also a growing problem with family structure where the parents no longer live with the children into old age, while there are insufficient programs to deal with retirement and health care."
Yes. A fundamental insight and an astute observation.
My mom refuses to even think about coming to live with me. Or, what she is going to do when she can't live on her own any more. We have plenty of room.
I think she doesn't like the idea of me caring for her, and would prefer strangers to do it.
for the umlaut, it's "Alt + u" followed by whatever vowel you want to put it on (there is also `,i,a,e,c,n instead of u off the top of my head that produce accents)
From the AP, off-topic but very relevant to next year's focus on the economy (one may not isolate one from the other, they are all related):
"But the biggest threat to the proposed agreement was the warning relayed from al-Sistani, who has the political muscle to sink the deal.
"An official close to al-Sistani said Friday that the cleric has vowed to "directly intervene" if the final version of the agreement breaches Iraq's sovereignty. The official spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject."
Any suggestions for an IRA stock trading account. My 22 year old kid brother has some money and wants to open up a retirement account. I'd like to open him a Roth IRA and put him in cash for awhile and then get him in an index once I think stocks are closer to a bottom. But I'd also like to give him flexibility to pull and trade individual stocks ... eg... I want to get him into WFC when it hits 20, etc. So I recommend he open two different accounts, or can you all of that in one. So etrade, fidelity, I dunno, suggestions?
For those who haven't tried it out, it's much more than a killfile. For instance, it lists each poster in the sidebar with the number of posts next to the poster's handle. By clicking on the handle it will quickly take you to that poster's first post. Continue clicking and it will take you through every post by that author in the thread.
To those of you slamming it because it's censorship or cliquish, you should actually try it out before criticizing it.
If the second election was stolen by suppressing the votes of brothers and sisters in Ohio, then WE all bear responsibility in some measure for allowing that to happen.
Like it or not (and I don't like and you don't like it), GWB has been our President.
Decreased visits to CR.
Repetitive conversations.
Multiple conversations in same thread. Even worse OT.
Use of power posters(EHP, Misean, etc.)by anonymous users.
Missed valuable commentary by the power posters that usually leads to astute observations.
Question on your agricultural commodities move. Are you buying for the long term or are you trading?
That is for the long-term, which to me is 1-2 years. Journal of Indexing asked several leading commodities gurus which specific contracts they liked best over the next several years. It was surprising how many of them said food.
Because I am focusing more long-term, I'm not going with DAG, double short. I'm going with DBA. I like the way Deutsche Bank/Powershares commodity ETFs roll into the most cost-efficient contracts to maximize roll yield (take advantage of backwardation or minimize contango). They are the only ETF sponsors who have this method, which they call "Optimum Yield." It should add 2-3% per year to return.
Liz: Black Friday has just been postponed 'til Monday, but they'll still have to close these markets soon in order to protect pension and insurance assets.
The hub needs a car. I truly wish he'd pull the money out of our cash value Pru life insurance and buy it--at least he'd have a car--but I am spitting into the wind, I know.
I literally left @ 3pm to get a haircut, came back 10 minutes ago, and the market gave back everything.
Should have know. A total fade on another site showed up bullish. Some indexes didn't test yesterday's high yet, which is moderately bullish. I'm still looking for sideways up until mid-December, but Mr. Market won't make it easy for anyone.
It really is dumbfounding to step back from the technical discussions every once in a while and ponder how quickly we got from watching trouble brewing to Depression economics.
[The other day some wise poster noted the explosion of schadenfreude on these threads]
I think most of us could not contain the level of disgust as the media buzz and cocktail party coversation was all about the incredible wealth being created by this new fangled invention called home ownership.
Sound dumb. I hope you remember, and get angry. Because IF we get through this you and your decendants will be paying for it for a long time.
"Gainas writes:
Half of you won't even have Internet this time next year."
Believe it or not, I'm seeing a certain amount of this attitude leak into the general population. Okay, the general population of barflies and underemployed 22 year-old truckdrivers, but nevertheless...
Americans as consumers who thought cheap credit was their birthright that allowed them to live beyond their means were the very same Americans who for the same reason voted for Bush and believed they could have a war against evil-doers who never attacked us and not pay for and not serve in the military or make any sacrifices.
The same Americans who think they should get everyhting they want or need from government but not pay taxes.
The results: ballooning debt, public and private. Broken government. Decrepit infrastructure. etc.
We have humiliated ourselves as a nation.
Paulson is a jerk, incompetent, and probably corrupt.
Hey Bill Payer,
You are not anonymous
Redniss, Seth
\tsredniss@rednissmoody.com
\t185 Franklin Street, 5th Floor
\tNew York, NY 10013
\tUS
\tPhone: 212-219-1120
Nemo?
second
Wow.. This moz extension is working better than advertised.
FAUST?
So what was the good news that the market is rallying is?
WOW.. How did the truth get through his lips!!!
Love that new thread alert, Ken !!
Can we dispense with the "Nemo" now that all of us will be arriving at about the same time?
I remember Paulson saying that he didn't know how much would be needed but that they were asking for $700 billion so that they would have "plenty."
All Hail Comrade BushCo AND Congress for
= The World's LARGEST Embezzlement.
Have a weekend.
Cordially,
Kilgore
"We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here," Paulson said
Speak for yourself, Hank. Beat him, drag him behind a SUV, frog march him into court.
Speak for yourself Mr. Paulson.
BTW CR, that's exactly what I was thinking when I read that.
Once a large majority of CR posters are comfortable withe Cooper Add On, I envision folks moving to the latest thread like a school of fish turning!!
So what was the good news that the market is rallying is?
At this point, I think any time anyone looks out their window, and they don't see a mushroom cloud in the distance, it's a strong buy signal.
I can think of no other rational explanation.
Paulson...say it like it is: YOU ARE PRESERVING YOUR OWN.
Well, when we cut Christmas spending by 50%, we are preserving our own. The government can't make us spend money, but they can sure take it through inflation and taxes.
Humiliation may bring us the humility we need to clean up our own trash.
Paulson needs to be replaced as soon as possible. His initial "we must do this or die" plan of buying troubled assets directly was so obviously flawed on a fundamental level that every wise eye could see it. Now that he has changed course, even the excitable folks he could have won over with the "do this or die" sales pitch are starting to doubt.
Faith is his capital, and faith in whatever plan he enacts will have a dollar multiplying effect. If we truly must get the maximum impact from our dollars, whatever plan is implemented must not be carried out by paulson.
Perhaps he is hinting to us that anything he does up until the 20th of January will just be stalling measures, and that the markets must wait that long for any certain, final plan.
Not the Great Depression, then, but the Great Humiliation?
Or perhaps this will be the Globalization Depression?
"We?" "We.. have humiliated ourselves as a nation?" What did I do? These guys who have been on the 'let's not play the blame game" meme - while letting the media outlets blame Carter and Clinton - are laughable.
He's done. They tore apart his flunky today as a warmup. That arrogance is the last nail.
Paulson: We have "humiliated ourselves as a nation"
Tonto said it best as he and the Lone Ranger were surrounded by hostile Indians: "We are screwed? What do you mean 'we' white man?"
You know - as much as I dont like HP - the true lack of leadership stems at W. HP is operating under the parameters that W has set for him.
But I agree... Speak for yourself.
Well, gold is up, oil is flat, and the market is going up. Must me more inflation.
What add-on?
What do you mean WE, Kemosabe...
Keep that sunlight away and keep feeding me sh*t!
Only ways to survive it is.
"HP is operating under the parameters that W has set for him."
The correct line is
"HP is operating under the parameters that GS has set for him."
There a mouse in your pocket, Hank?
To be fair, at least Paulson (unlike Bush) is willing to admit to error and make mid-flight course corrections.
I still remember how astonished I was when Bush was asked during the '04 campaign to name his worst mistake and he said he couldn't think of any.
Nonetheless, January can't come soon enough...
Credit where credit is due. Any man who can get on a public stage and make a statement like that about a situation he helped perpetuate - well that man deserves props.
I know it's blasphemy to say so, but IMO the best thing Obama could do is keep Paulson around for another 12 months with carte blanche to do what needs to be done.
Duarte writes:
"Well, gold is up, oil is flat, and the market is going up. Must me more inflation."
Is anyone really going to be surprised when the inflation kicks in next year?
Paulson added. "I think the system has been stabilized. I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
CitiGroup Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit sought to reassure employees today, saying in an internal memo that the bank's revenue is strong and stable'' and its capitalplentiful.''
I think Hank may be stretching things to assume that we're going to bed at night any more at all...
Mr. Henry Merritt Paulson meet Mr. Arthur Neville Chamberlain.
"Containment in our time."
HP is operating under the parameters that W has set for him.
He hasn't resigned, so I hold hank responsible too.
6 writes:
Credit where credit is due. Any man who can get on a public stage and make a statement like that about a situation he helped perpetuate - well that man deserves props.
1) Destructive of confidence.
2) Changing horses in mid-stream.
6 -- to do what needs to be done.
And what would that be, exactly?
Paulson added. "I think the system has been stabilized. I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
Again - speak for yourself Mr. Paulson.
Humiliation might be the first step toward humility. That would indeed be progress.
I will never again underestimate the stupidity of investors... green?!?
Well, keep him around for a month or 2 for some extra blame.
Neither he nor anyone else has any idea of what to do which does not involve severe pain.
Every Federal building in DC needs an uplifting motto on the fascade.
The motto for the Treasury Building is now ready to post:
"We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here,"
Carlos(Unrated) writes:
What add-on?
Ken Cooper wrote a Firefox plugin to rate and track comments. It also alerts you to new threads. See more at
CR Companion
I'll also add that NONE of this will be cleaned up until the American electorate accepts its central role in demanding bread and circuses from its government and roundly and soundly rejecting candidates that tried to do the right thing.
Paulson isn't the problem. Shrub isn't the problem. Clinton wasn't the problem.
The voter is and always will be the problem.
What do you mean WE, Kemosabe...
Kemosabe N.
Backside of a horse.
HA HA, that is the greatest thing I've heard in a long time.
Wrong. He said yesterday he won't apologize when "facts" change. He stated that the changed fact was "our understanding of the magnitude of the problem."
Our understanding is he is a problem.
Paulson isn't the problem. Shrub isn't the problem. Clinton wasn't the problem.
The voter is and always will be the problem.
It's not an either/or situation.
"I will never again underestimate the stupidity of investors... green?!?"
Even C is doing its best be like Kermit. Incontheivable.
"I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
-- that's only because we have FDIC Fridays! They let us know before bedtime.
If it weren't for weekends we might not get any sleep at all...
Paulson was also saying it was all about imbalances of capital flows. And of course he said no one is to blame.
Those imbalances are just by chance? Hell no - they are the direct result of Republican laissez faire capitalism! The market is always right - if the Mid east is selling oil cheap, the market says why make your own? And if China is producing goods more cheaply than the US, the market says buy Chinese goods and lots of them.
The friggin market has no allegiance to any country - and this is what you get from laissez faire capitalism - imbalances with no one trying to correct them until it is too late. Damn I will be happy to see these guys get the hell out on January 20th.
You are de Man!
Right on CR!
i>steelhead writes:
What do you mean WE, Kemosabe...
Mushroom already commented but there's a better joke;
Long after they had retired the Lone Ranger visited his faithful companion on his ranch. As Tonto was giving his visitor a tour they crossed the cow pasture where he warned the Lone Ranger to not step in the "kemosabe..."
FDIC Friday:
(AP) The FDIC has seized and closed down all of ALpharetta, Georgia.
Looks like the only way the market closes read today is if Godzilla attacks the BOJ.
"We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation."...going foward
Either he is speaking also for Bernanke or else he has a frog up his ass.
(Says the frog...Hey Eagle, how high are we now?
Oh, about 3 Trillion feet says the Eagle.
Says the frog in a quivering voice...You wouldn't shit me now, would you?)
hhhaaaahahaha, poor Alphar.
The market might work ok if there were no guns. Maybe that's why China didn't do much at first with their gunpowder.
humiliating changing your financial depends in public
UBS still -12% Swiss won't let em pay a dividend, probably.
re: Market Rallying
Try inductive rather than deductive reasoning.
If the market was going to rally in the next year, and it doesn't go all the way down in one breath: when would it rally?
Answer: In the next month
- Fewer business days
- Fewer foreclosures, fewer sales by choice of homes
- Relative consumer peak of the year
- New president, holidays, optimism potential
- Layoffs delayed until the new year
- Possible contractual or tax incentives to spend before year end
- Relatively biggest bonus season, ahead of the tax rebates one
- Borrowing costs are decreasing, even for most of the lower rated paper it's cheaper than a year ago due to rate cuts
- Gas price decreases will free up spending power to other sectors
- There are almost no negative or unexpected or significant or shocking economic reports upcoming
The why it would not go down all at once is a more nuanced diatribe of market mechanics. Save for the atypical 1987 crash, it is a behaviour borne out empirically
I think the market is rallying because you are seeing leveraged hedge funds come back in. I know it sounds strange, when other hedge funds are deleveraging and folding. But that's what it smells like. Hedge funds love volatility.
If you look up the word "corrupt" in Webster's, is there a picture of HP?
Anyone have a video link to Kashkari or Paulson saying this?
Pooooor Kash. Thanks for the video, cr.
Is anyone really going to be surprised when the inflation kicks in next year?
sm_landlord | Homepage | 11.14.08 - 3:15 pm | #
So should I run out and buy a house using the smallest downpayment possible?
Boo hoo...this guy wreaks of Goldman Sachs connections.
Changing horses in mid-stream.
Another word for that is "learning from experience". I trust you're not opposed to the concept...
Speak for yourself Mr. Paulson.
A-f'in-men CR.....
.......
"Is Kash-carry a chump?"
I that what he said?
there's a financial crisis?
Zoom--sure, except nobody will finance you.
Deflation will be the story of the year.
"Is Kashkari A Chump?" (VIDEO)
Video. Awesome.
rich,
Don't forget that there are underperforming/liquidating hedge funds with significant short positions. As such a hedge fund liquidation cannot be synonymous with a depressing of prices
Help me! I've deflated and I can't get back up.
{Wrong. He said yesterday he won't apologize when "facts" change. He stated that the changed fact was "our understanding of the magnitude of the problem."}
Isn't Paulson the guy who, as head of Golden Slacks, lobbied for a new law that unleashed the investment banks from restrictions on leverage, and arguably put lighter fluid on the entire financial industry? Maybe the fact that he needs to face is that he is the lead crook in this entire scenario.
Too bad we aren't Japan - he would be doing seppuku right about now . . . in America, people who humiliate the country get to be President and Sec. of Treasury . . . .
The deflation is houses is already 2/3rds over. The deflation of other stuff to follow.
The why it would not go down all at once is a more nuanced diatribe of market mechanics. Save for the atypical 1987 crash, it is a behaviour borne out empirically
EvilHenryPaulson
I won't take the other side of your well reasoned argument but would merely point out the ever present 800 lb gorilla called "Already priced in."
I bet 500 Kashikari's on Downey Savings today.
"We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here," Paulson said
First, not everybody in the nation acted irresponsible. Far from it.
Second, he just indicted himself as a liar and an incompetent.
Fire Paulson immediately.
You know, I don't like this Kash n Kerry idiot. I think he's a typical Wall Street sychophant, but these Congressman have no place to speak. They are as guilty as Kash n Kerry for what is taking place. They are nothing but Corporate Whores and they're going to call him a chump? Pot, meet Mr. Kettle.
Filter that with your cute little filter, Ken. Afterall, this blog should only be about market statistics and trading tips. The web is innundated with borderline aspergers cases. Why anyone would go to such efforts to filter a blog is beyong comprehension. They have the time to create a filter, but they don't have the time to look through the comments because they have a life? Give me a break. That's not a life. Hopefully, if this (economy failing) all goes according to plan, you'll have plenty of time on your hands. Maybe you can fashion a filter for your well water when that extra time comes.
"I think the system has been stabilized. I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
No, we are going to bed at night wondering how big our problems are.
He said it was stabilized on NPR yesterday too. I wanted to smash him.
I believe the humiliation lies with the Ivy-league MBAs who, it turns out, aren't smarter than a 5th grader.
And the worst for them, is you can't fix stupid.
"I think the system has been stabilized. I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
Funny, and I go to bed at night wondering if the system has been stabilized.
Sorry EHP, Winter tends to bring on depression in some people. Pakistan, Iran could flare up before Obama sits.
It could get cold, and many don't buy oil until the last minute. Big 3 could fail. CDS could blow up. Treasury overload. I'll stop now.
"I think the system has been stabilized. I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
My neighbors and co-workers go to bed at night wondering whether they will have a job next week.
good thing he is an expert on depressions because he is causing one
we don't have to wonder "which" has a problem, we know that all of them are the problem
Pissed Off In California writes:
Help me! I've deflated and I can't get back up.
No, the phrase is:
"Help me! I've shot my inflated liquidity injection and now deflated I can't get back in." [ducks]
Sheesh Morroco, if you don't want to filter, don't. But at least let the rest of us enjoy a tool that we find useful. Ken's just sharing something he built for his own use, so the rest of us can do the same. Personally, I'm grateful for that. Seems like you are inferring a lot from a little
Indeed, dawg, you should duck.
Will DOW close over 9000 today? WTF?
I didn't spend beyond my means.
I didn't lie on a mortage application and commit fraud to get a "bigger house than the Jones."
I didn't buy the biggest, most wasteful SUV possible to "show it off" and hasten the paving over of the planet.
I didn't buy into the consumer culture of debt, fraud, greed, and stupidity.
I didn't humiliate this nation - but idiots like Paulson have, and yet they still take our money to spread to their crook buddies.
It did seem like they picked a fight with mini-me.
But Kucinich stood up big against TARP, and Issa voted no.
First, not everybody in the nation acted irresponsible. Far from it.
A great many have acted irresponsibly, though, but it's not as if they weren't enticed to do so by Hank Paulson and his colleagues on Wall Street. If you wave candy in front of a child, they're going to take it and eat it. The candy should never have been waved, nor created, and the children should have acted like adults and realized the implications of the temptation.
Ken, please filter this.
6 writes:
Another word for that is "learning from experience". I trust you're not opposed to the concept...
His successor is welcome to explore new options.
Given the magnitude of his failure, suicide or surrender of his wealth and retreat into humiliated obscurity are the appropriate responses.
Of course, this is the Bush administration, where "accepting responsiblity" means saying "Gee, I messed up" and continuing along like nothing happened.
No more fun with first. Blecchhh.
Seriously, what kind of moron would suggest that the system is stable right now?
Has he seen the Fed's balance sheet?
lawyerliz writes:
Indeed, dawg, you should duck.
Walks like a duck. quacks like a duck...
We are all ducked now.
Humor got us through the last depression and it is in desperate short supply of late.
It was HP who lobbied again and again for changes to leveraged dollars...He is one smart cookie he is walking away with millions in his bag and by now he probably knows the USD is toast so it would not suprize me to find out that it is Sw.Francs but also is probably in a Swiss account, too.
Morons who think other morons will take him seriously. Regrettably such morons are plentiful.
Hank probably figured if Mayor Daly can get away with delivering bad news without spin, then maybe he should try it, too.
Just one word: unfrigginbelievable
Seems like you are inferring a lot from a little
Perhaps I am inferring. If I am incorrect, forgive me. I can't stand cliques. I have a policy of inclusion IRL, and I extend that to my internet life. I don't like to exclude people, and I deplore it when others exclude.
Rob Dawg writes:
I won't take the other side of your well reasoned argument but would merely point out the ever present 800 lb gorilla called "Already priced in."
The market couldn't price the future in if its life depended on it. They are still far too optimistic on earnings. I still hear talking heads wax and wane about low P/Es on previous earnings.
S&P500 Earnings have a significant, double digit percentage, chance of dropping into the 40s before the end of the unwind/crisis. If you model a simple 20% decline per quarter from the peak ?96/97 EPS, you end up with a 60 avg for 2009 but a 48 EPS in Q4.
The market in general has no idea how these earnings are produced, how long the chain of income leads up to them. Each analyst operates in a bubble of sector performance and are ill-equipped to understand why market conditions deteriorate because there is no profit incentive to doing that in the good/stable times.
Seriously, what kind of moron would suggest that the system is stable right now?
Has he seen the Fed's balance sheet?
While I do not respect what he said, I understand why he said it.
What's he supposed to do, say "the quest still stands on the edge of a knife"?
Ducks are a lot tastier than squirrels. Liz ducks.
Comrade Pondering the Mess writes:
I didn't humiliate this nation - but idiots like Paulson have, and yet they still take our money to spread to their crook buddies.
Amen.
Apparently nobody involved with the process knows how to tender or demand resignations.
warning juvenile comment please filter
ppt to hank: need more viagra
So the humility is because he realized he has shit on his face and the average taxpayer is being asked to lick it off (or better known as a stimulus package)?
Gee great. The boys from GS feel bad after helping their buddies break the national piggy bank. Humility will be Paulson trying to sell his house in this market and hopefully joining the ranks of other well-tarped and connected smart guys in the unemployment line.
Well maybe they can apply for the Change We Need :
Change.gov: The Obama-Biden Transition Team | Apply for a job
Just leave off any references from GWB and your time serving him and you may have a shot at it Hank and friends.
I do have some sympathy for Cash-n-Carry. They were brutal to him in that video. Desparate for someone to blame. Wonder if he knew that being congress' whipping boy was in his job discription.
I don't understand what is wrong with Paulson saying that we (as a nation) have humiliated ourselves. Most commentors on this blog did not humilitate themselves, but are only too happy to point out how humiliating the actions of j6p have been. It's pretty clear that the actions of the public in general have humiliated this nation. This may be one of the most coherent things that Paulson has said. For those that disagree, please tell me that you are proud of your countrymen that bought too much while making too little.
All hail George Bush for his great judgement on putting only the best, the brightest and most aware among us in positions of great authority and power
Ducks are a lot tastier than squirrels. Liz ducks.
Squirrels, ducks and lizards. This blog has really gone to the dawgs.
Comparative Advantage?
Japan : best cars in the world.
China : best cheap junk in the world.
Germany : best machines in the world.
Arabia: best crude in the world.
Australia : best ores in the world.
Mexico: best porous northern border.
America: best complex financial tools?
CR, I'm proud to report that you've made it into the REAL MEDIA: one of your graphs has been reprinted in Wonkette!
A Nice Chart Showing How Poor You Are
fallonPDX writes:
Humility will be Paulson trying to sell his house in this market .....
Betting that Hank still owns outright in NYC and rents in DC.
I do have some sympathy for Cash-n-Carry.
I have none. That clown thought he was a candidate to continue running the $700B in the O administration.
Paint his face white and stick a red nose on him.
If you watched the whole hearing, it was clear Kashkari was well-rehearsed, repeating stock phrases like, "I appreciate your perspective, Congressman" or "I am passionate about helping homeowners."
It came across as a smokescreen and Cummings called him on it at the end.
Kashkari's tears seemed real at the end. Who knows.
It ended with a classic:
Kashkari: "I can't work any harder"
Kucinich: "We know you're working hard.
The question is who are you working for"
The market couldn't price the future in if its life depended on it. They are still far too optimistic on earnings. I still hear talking heads wax and wane about low P/Es on previous earnings.
EvilHenryPaulson
Word. One of my warnings of late has been the insanely optimistic forward looking P/E ratio assumptions. That said, the market "can" price in the future. It is just that IMO right now it "isn't" pricing in that future.
America: best complex financial tools?
dogface
Id say
America: Dumbest Proletariat
Hey, wonkette sez we are mathies.
We are all mathies now.
Especially CR.
DCRogers(Unrated) writes:
CR, I'm proud to report that you've made it into the REAL MEDIA: one of your graphs has been reprinted in Wonkette!
I remember the day that Congress was passing around an Ubernerd Post on MBSs.
I honestly thought it was a joke! It wasnt...
......
Side note does anyone know how to get the two dots over letters?TIA
Cliff Diving.....EEEEEK
Hartford applied for S&L status
Comrade Dawg, come join me. Relive those old EN days.
Casey Serin for President. It turns out he was a trailblazer.
As much as I hate the bastard, who looks like the idiot today?
Us schmucks that paid our bills.
must be one of those hedgies deleveraging
Oh you tricksy little pump monkeys. You may have foole dosme, but you didn't fool me. Hah. Begone. We have lows to retest.
HIG to become S & L and get tarp money to buy a bank. Americaq, what a country
what happened to dxd and skf?
Morocco Bama writes:
I have a policy of inclusion IRL, and I extend that to my internet life. I don't like to exclude people, and I deplore it when others exclude.
The marketplace of ideas is just that, a marketplace. Some people sell good wares, some people sell trash.
Inclusion does not mean buying without shopping, inclusion means trying every ware.
I don't think people are going to bed at night wondering which major financial institution might have a problem."
True. Those who were in that situation pulled their money out and are leaving it in cash. People are now going to bed at night wondering how much their taxes are going to go up, how much more value their house will lose, how much longer their job will last, and when the next big slice in purchasing power will come from the bureaucrats.
Kashkari stonewalled on who was getting TARP money and why. Congress has a DUTY to oversee the program and I was glad they hinted at perjury.
Ego's are not important now.
"foole dosme" = "fooled some"
The pump monkeys rearranged the keys on my keyboard. Nasty little buggers.
CNBC reported that Hartford wants to become an S&L, to get TARP money.
Maybe GM and Chrysler can become banks as well? Then they could get TARP money as well.
"We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here," Paulson said
But bankers and foolish investors still deserve their bonuses and dividends.
And don't worry Mr. & Mrs. Hard Working Prudent Tax Payer. You'll get your piece of the action as soon as we defeat this deflation problem and flip FNM, FRE, AIG, GM & F.
CR, I'm proud to report that you've made it into the REAL MEDIA
CR is the real media. The "real" media just hasn't figured that out yet.
CR is much more real than Wonkette.
We are all banks now.
Bond Girl writes:
Hartford applied for S&L status
If you have a whole life insurance policy.. best advice take a loan against the cash value and do something wise with the cash like buy Perth Mint Certs.
ACP! thought you were trying a little olde english
Nope. That's only for dusting my furniture.
And why does Krispy Kash Kreme have his head shaved bald? What the frikkin hell is up with that shit? Are they nothing more than a bunch of monkies immitating each other? Does he preen the dingleberries from Paulson's ass like a good monkey, too. Get some originality, fer Christ's Sake.
Dawg, EHP,
At times like this - one shouldnt necessarily consider next year's earnings. Warren Buffett and others have hinted at using a 10 year rolling PE average as a better guide (this sort of an average takes into account the average of business cycles). Admittedly even witht his rolling PE average - you need to consider that we're not in a normal business cycle but in an era for Depression era economics. But having said that - the bigger point it - next years earnings are NOT the indicator to consider.
At one point he had the stutter going.
Morocco Bama writes:
dingleberries
I love that word.
But having said that - the bigger point it - next years earnings are NOT the indicator to consider.
Tell that to the SPX
Was he really crying at the end?
Most commentors on this blog did not humilitate themselves, but are only too happy to point out how humiliating the actions of j6p have been
They call joe six pack "joe six pack" for a reason. Everybody wants free money. Bankers are supposed to vet loans. They utterly shirked their responsibility for bonuses. The blame lies with the bankers and their greed.
Under a gold standard, these foolish bailouts for bankers and borrowers would NOT be possible.
Comrade Baron Von Helmut III writes:
Comrade Dawg, come join me. Relive those old EN days.
I'll pass. Today is the 6 mo anniversary of my quad bypass surgery for but one event that deserves to be in the past.
Casey Serin for President. It turns out he was a trailblazer.
Agreed. His excesses exposed the total failure of a system that relied upon active self-interest participation in the system.
As much as I hate the bastard, who looks like the idiot today?
Us schmucks that paid our bills.
Yup. It's like the gov't stepped in and unwound all the options contracts ever written over the last decade.
If the clip wasn't enough C-SPAN has a video of the entire meeting. It's juicy!
It seems that whenever the Administration screws up, a spokesman always blames "all of us".
What's this "we" stuff? In this case it's you, Hank.
re: C, HIG.
What's the exponential of irrational?
we're loosin' that smiley face
"Nonetheless, January can't come soon enough..."
Why, so we get Larry Summers and all the other recycled Clinton deregulators? We'll hardly notice the difference. Don't hold your breath looking for Democratic change. Although, there will certainly be a lot of grandstanding hearings and fingerpointing.
How does the saying go, "Failure is an orphan, except when the government fails. Then it's OUR fault."
Mr. Kashkari declined to speak about specific institutions, including PNC Financial and National City, but said federal banking regulators determine which banks are allowed to apply for the Treasury's capital injection program. In a heated exchange with Mr. Kucinich, however, he said Treasury shouldn't prop up struggling institutions.
"I don't think it's a good use of taxpayer money to put taxpayer capital into a financial institution that is going to fail," Mr. Kashkari said.
Mr. Kucinich fired back to Mr. Kashkari, "That statement that you just made you will hear about for the rest of your career."
we're loosin' that smiley face
irreverent
A Novocaine smile?
Democratic change. Although, there will certainly be a lot of grandstanding hearings and fingerpointing.
Markar
Assuming the lights are still o
Stay healthy dawg. My uncle had a quad over 20 years ago and he's in great shape.
"I don't think it's a good use of taxpayer money to put taxpayer capital into a financial institution that is going to fail," Mr. Kashkari said.
Come to think of it, that's the first statement out of the treasury that I've agreed with in over a year.
Angry Saver,
I'm am not saying that bankers don't deserve much of the blame for the current situation, and I think that the bailouts are almost as humiliating as the situation itself, but j6p must bear some of the responsiblity for this crisis. The notion that everyone can blame this on the evil bankers that forced people to buy homes that they couldn't afford is ridiculous. As is the desire to blame whichever political party that you don't like.
This failure for anyone, at any level, to take any responsibility for this crisis leads me to believe that if the system were "fixed" tomorrow, we'd go ahead and do it all over again.
Democratic change
That's about all I'll have left in my pockets.
Noble writes:
Dawg, EHP,
At times like this - one shouldnt necessarily consider next year's earnings. Warren Buffett...
The last decade is not a reliable baseline with which to make investment decisions going forward. The last ten years is indeed a great measure with which to maximize Warren Buffet's current investment position. See the difference?
CR - you said it!
The "I don't really know what I'm doing" last Monday has done tremendous damage to markets and the economy.
Whatever the decision, we need leadership.
Noble,
Included in my projections are the subset of possibilities where credit outstanding either remains flat or declines in America.
It has gone up like a rocket ship for the past 30yrs, where through a few intermediaries, the only thing paying off old debt was new debt effectively.
The past 10 years means little to a colossal factor like going from net borrowing to net saving.
"And why does Krispy Kash Kreme have his head shaved bald? What the frikkin hell is up with that shit? Are they nothing more than a bunch of monkies immitating each other? Does he preen the dingleberries from Paulson's ass like a good monkey, too. Get some originality, fer Christ's Sake."
For those keeping track, there are only 2 acceptable hairstyles for men in power: completely bald, like Dr. Evil, and perfect, bullet-proof hair that never ages, moves in the wind, or otherwise appears real. Nothing else is accepted.
That, and Kash and Karry is probably just a Paulson clone anyway.
Hartford Financial is buying a Bank.....up 27%
Detroit is converting to a bank...The Detroit Community Debt Assistance Bank and City Cooperative.....up 5 Casinos
The Dow slipped on a banana peel.
Morocco Bama writes:
dingleberries
They call them 'dags' down under.
Rattle yer dags, mate. Time's wasti
Many praise Bernanke, because he's a student of the depression. He may be able to avoid some mistakes (how does he know what the mistakes were?), but it is much more complex than doing something differently. At every juncture there are at least two alternatives on the table. As time passes and more decisions are made, a decision maker has taken a path, but just one of the paths that could have been taken. Visualize climbing a branchy tree to see that there are many ways to climb the tree. The biggest problem may be that people may succumb to causal thinking -- because event 'a' preceeded event 'b', 'b' was caused by 'a'. Not so.
There goes the bird flip signal on the Dow again on the upside.
Sell you fools.
Good news we are shopping banks again
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury is about to approve capital injections into 20 more banks, said Neel Kashkari, the department's assistant secretary in charge of a $700 billion bank-rescue plan.
I can deal with the volatility, as I am a 'sell and hold' short.
Just keep the S&P 500 below 1025, schmucks.
Cummings essentially said, heavily, we can't afford to do business or politics as usual.
Tears were certainly appropriate, even just for relief after a 2 hour grilling. Of course, tears are easier to manufacture when they're appropriate.
Kucinich finally thanked him for coming about 3 times. He's a GS guy, but still just a flunky.
kash should have added, "unless a particular failure will bring down 10 other institutions".
BB is the worst Fed Chairman since Archie Young. Throw in Maestro Greenspin too.
Paulson: "We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation"
In some ways, my boy is a genius.
Paulson: "By the time the process with Congress was completed, it was clear that we were facing a much more severe situation than we had envisioned earlier on"
In other ways, though, he can be such an idiot. I blame his father.
My precious...
reptillian(Unrated) writes:
Many praise Bernanke, because he's a student of the depression.
A remedial one.
Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit sought to reassure employees today, saying in an internal memo that the bank's revenue is strong and stable'' and its capitalplentiful.''
Scratching my head here...what did that guy from BS say on a Friday...and by Monday something happened...
scary...now not carrying any C over the weekend.
More HIG puts?
"reptillian(Unrated) writes:
Many praise Bernanke, because he's a student of the depression.
A remedial one."
So he took DSL? Depression as a second language?
Has anyone heard from Bill Gross since the Treasury decided not to purchase troubled assets?
For the longest time, they could not shut him up about what a great deal the bailout was.
It seems that with this kind of volatility, you only have to have a bit of conviction to make some gain from your "bad" bet. The volatility will come and save you. Got caught holding bank shorts a few months ago when SEC ban short selling? Hold it a few more weeks and voila..
Bond Girl - U miss the memo re Bill Gross Savings and Loa
The past 10 years means little to a colossal factor like going from net borrowing to net saving.
EHP
While I dont disagree with either you or Dawg entirely - you will also note other factors such as the rise of emerging markets of tremendous size and scope in the last 10 years.
So yes, we are bound for structural adjustments and an amazing amount depends on human leadership factors in the next 2 years - IMO, I feel that when the market eventually rebounds it will be well in advance of "next years earnings."
I am by no means calling a bottom but trying like everyone else to rationalize where we are going. The tinfoilians on this board seem to think we're going to Dow 0 in the next 20 days.
Congress: "blah blah bellicose blah grumble rumble blah..."
CashCarry: blah blah dissemble blah blah obfuscate blah blah
Congress: Blah blah really angry!! blah blah BLAH!
CashCarry: blah blah blah lie blah blah don't answer the question blah blah learned well from condi Rice blah blah
Congress: BLAH! BLAH!! Do nothing blah appear really mad blah blah get red-faced blah blah go have a fine dinner on the taxpayers money
Excellent question and point, B-G-!
Ha, ha, ha.
Wait, are you B-G-'s alter ego?
They call them 'dags' down under.
Willnots in Canada.
"It seems that with this kind of volatility, you only have to have a bit of conviction to make some gain from your "bad" bet. The volatility will come and save you. Got caught holding bank shorts a few months ago when SEC ban short selling? Hold it a few more weeks and voila.."
Seriously. You could open equivalent short and long positions on the same day and have a decent chance of each position being in the green within the next month. Market timing these days is less about when to open and more about when to close.
hahahaha dan.
This market is damn hilarious (kind of) and unpredictable.
Close under 200? Rationally, sure. But not with all this pump action.
Amazing.
I'm liking those index puts I opened on yesterday's close and then doubled up on on today's green zone prairie doggin'.
Noble writes:
I am by no means calling a bottom but trying like everyone else to rationalize where we are going. The tinfoilians on this board seem to think we're going to Dow 0 in the next 20 days.
What do you think a Treasury fail will look like in the markets, Noble?
What forfeit do you pay for being a Pollyanna proven wrong?
30 year bond auction yesterday? Are we concerned about the lack of foreign buyers? and the lower than average bid to cover? and the spike in yield above pre market expectations?
Close on the lows of the day coming?
"Many praise Bernanke, because he's a student of the depression. He may be able to avoid some mistakes (how does he know what the mistakes were?), but it is much more complex than doing something differently."
Exactly. There are many, many chices (in aggregate) about what to do, and:
I don't think that the powers-that-be think that #4 above is a viable option, hence doing everything in our power to prevent the bottom.
"The biggest problem may be that people may succumb to causal thinking -- because event 'a' preceeded event 'b', 'b' was caused by 'a'. Not so."
An error in logic. Post hoc ergo propter hoc.
Something similar in rhetoric.
Greek: hysteron proteron.
It's inevitable, because it's so difficult to stand outside of our own thinking processes and assumptions, nor are these necessarily one to one maps of real processes. In plain English: Mistakes are inevitable. Add self-interest and you get a sometimes foul and murky stew. A mess.
REL, I agree.
Close on the lows of the day coming?
Assume Crash Positions
That was my guess
hank to ppt: tarpy's a little cranky this afternoon (sound of heads chattering across banks of hard disks)
Gross saying that Commercial banks are great buys.......AFTER the TARP money gets to them.
Everytime Gross speaks on a friday something happens the next sunday/monday.
Such a putz that Bill.
Ciao
MS
Sam, I believe in the PPT, and believe yesterday's rocket up was to cover/distract from that terrible news.
Same for today with the retail sales report.
But, no doubt, there are a bunch of gullible individuals still; AAII sentiment is more bullish than it was before the October meltdown.
Lots of born and bred dopes with ever-decreasing piles of money, still.
Stocks are "struggling"--msn money.
It pains me to say this, but Paulson is correct.
We - WE - have humiliated ourselves as a nation. All of us. Collectively. Even you and you and you never made a bad economic decision, and even if I voted against Bush twice and railed against his usurpation of the Constitution, violations of human rights, crimes against humanity, and crimes agains the well-being of this country.
We humiliated ourselves. We let Bush steal his first election. We god awfully and unaccountably elected him again. Those of us who campaigned against him failed; we failed to stop him.
How did all this happen? We failed to educate our citizenry. We failed to demand active civic participation. We failed to demand an active press. We failed to demand the rule of law. We failed to think of the public and future because it was so often easier just to pursue our own individual ends. Those of us who didn't neglect those things failed in preventing the destruction of the country's economy and Constitution.
The failure is collective. The punishment is and will be collective. We will all suffer, and protesting that you didn't do anything wrong isn't going to refloat the country's GDP.
The other day some wise poster noted the explosion of schadenfreude on these threads. It overwhelms everything because of the fantasy that nothing should ever affect us as individuals, based on our own individual virtue. Sorry. It does not work that way.
We all let this happen. We will all pay.
That doesn't mean that Paulson and Bush and company shouldn't get their hides whipped.
It does mean that we have to climb out of this as a society.
Blame the nation. Nice and broad. Covers everyone. Pathetic son of Satan.
350 IN THE HOLE.
So who is going to lose big in this monnt's opex?
Hank,
Is you is or is you ain't my bitch?
Yahoo! Message Boards - Goldman Sachs Group (GS) - BLANKFIEN'S LETTER TO PAULSON
You may kiss my sacred Harvard ring.
bearly writes:
350 IN THE HOLE.
This is a family blog, kindly don't quote figures.
Looks like a bunch of traders got their dingleberries caught in the door running for the exit.
I read yesterday somewhere (here?) that these swings in the stock market were common before the big crash and following crashes in 1929 and 1930's.
Anymore 4% up or down is a cause for a yawn.
"We god awfully and unaccountably elected him again. "
You might want to speak to the african american population in Ohio before you put forth that assumption.
"We" most certainly did not.
Ciao
MS
wow, reverse blow off, is this some of that humiliation I was hearing about
Noble,
Those emerging market exporters get similarly crushed when there is less buying of their product. They should grow faster than developed countries, but so much of that rapid growth is due to financing and limitless expectations. That's out of the picture for now, China did not even grow at 9% -- they're lying.
There is both an incredible amount of potential growth, and potential liabilities in the developing world. Simple infrastructure improvements can improve efficiency and therefore production of goods and services. There is also a growing problem with family structure where the parents no longer live with the children into old age, while there are insufficient programs to deal with retirement and health care. I'm positive and optimistic for their future, but I'm only net positive not absolutely so.
I understand your perspective of wanting to be level headed, and to think for the long term. My opinion is that there will be no immediate bounce back, and I will operate off that assumption. As for not focusing on next year's earnings, gosh darn I will. And the year after that, and continue to do so until earnings stabilize and there is a P/E of 10 or lower -- then I will buy equity in the companies I feel strongly about in the long term, there is no reason to overpay.
If you really want a venue to stretch your wings, you could do worse than the corporate bond market right now.
Building a base my ass. We'll see 760 next week.
The largest DJI up days were right around market crash dates.
Hi rich,
Question on your agricultural commodities move. Are you buying for the long term or are you trading?
thank you very much.
8500...did I call that shot, or what?
Side note does anyone know how to get the two dots over letters?
Õ < ----like that??
knock yerself out [put an & in front of the listed "Name"]
we &hearts HTML!!
Joe shmoe:"We humiliated ourselves. We let Bush steal his first election."
Joe, I think you don't get it. This had as much to do with Bush as it had to do with my sister...which means everything.
We as a society have been borrowing money to buy things we cannot afford, creating and growing a Ponzi scheme economy. Sure, it was Bush's fault...and congress' fault...and your neighbor's fault...and your kid's schoolteacher's fault...and even your fault.
Blame Bush all you want (and you will), but the true blame lies with us....the moment we stopped being "American Citizens", and started being "American Consumers", to the exclusion of all else.
Worst close in years, and ditto for Maria's look.
Paulson to the rescue!
YouTube - Swinging Safety Last
I'm thinking today's newsconference may be in response to my repeated postings of this yesterday.
Oh, please let it be so.
Can HIG buyers really have swallowed the Let's become a bank and "cash out on TARP money" [Bloomberg anchor's phrase]line? There must be something else.
As for who has humiliated themselves, I agree with Angry Saver that it extends beyond j6p to include the bankers. But don't stop there, you've got to include the Fed, Congress and the last 4 Administrations in the group who all need a 12 Step Program to Acknowledge and Confess their Sins.
REBear,
Although it's not directed to me, are you asking about agricultural futures or companies and their debt or equity?
"We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here,"
Hank, you been looking at porn on the internet again? After your sorry ass performance, if I had any feelings, I'd be humiliated for my Alma Mater Studiorum and my band of pirates, too.
You may kiss my sacred Harvard ring.
Exactly, HPM.
Side note does anyone know how to get the two dots over letters?
Yes but it depends on whether you have a real computer or a Windoze PC combination.
HIG bag-holder's sure hope so...nice of Hank to give the money to stave off another failure.
At this rate SBUX will be an S&L...
Ciao
MS
Bank failure coming very soon...I can feel yet...
*it
"The other day some wise poster noted the explosion of schadenfreude on these threads. It overwhelms everything because of the fantasy that nothing should ever affect us as individuals, based on our own individual virtue. Sorry. It does not work that way."
Yes. The complementary error is that somehow we can insulate ourselves by playing survivalist. Aside from the immorality and desperation of such a ploy, very few of us are equipped or isolated enough to carry it through successfully.
Are we a country or are we a mob?
The HIG "bank conversion" worked well for GS and MS?
crispy&cole writes:
Bank failure coming very soon...I can feel yet...
Not our turn (CA). Florida or Georgia.
time for an ABX/CMBX cliff diving post.
Just sayin...
if SBUX deposits your latte in an appropriate institution you will be considered an insured depositor
Hey, Hank Paulson's Mom, would that be summed up by Pogo's Maxim?
No big capitulation day, just a death of a thousand and one cuts? I wanted a mkt limits crash.!!
äüïöëÿ
Econoclast, above are the 'two dots' or the "umulaut" (you had the squiggly line from spanish).
Also for HTML unicode, you need "&(code);", not just the &
Conjure says, "Humiliation isn't the only thing this nation is going to suffer."
Yes but it depends on whether you have a real computer or a Windoze PC combination.
Rob Dawg
But of course a real one! (I a west coast convert remember!
......
Econoclast thanks too...
Is Kashnari a chump?
No Congressman, you are.
.
"There is also a growing problem with family structure where the parents no longer live with the children into old age, while there are insufficient programs to deal with retirement and health care."
Yes. A fundamental insight and an astute observation.
Does DSL blow up this afternoon?
There has to be some good rumor to explain the last hour of trading.
"We" have humiliated the nation.
What the hell! YOU and your banker cronies and the morons YOU are trying to now bail out humiliated the nation you SOB.
In the finest witch hunting traditions I say we tie him up and throw him in the river.
Are we a country or are we a mob?
We're not the country we used to be.
Financial fraud and deceit are being promoted at the highest levels.
Expedience is not justification for ignoring the constitution.
Hi, mp, how was your scouting trip? And how is conjure?
"In the finest witch hunting traditions I say we tie him up and throw him in the river."
WorkingGroup
Stuff floats, so I'm afraid the witch test would fail on Paulson.
lawyerliz- "I wanted a mkt limits crash."
Conjure says, "Lawyerliz, you're going to get at least two market limit crashes, and you'll end up wishing you hadn't gotten them."
Sorry. Conjure is in a foul mood.
"Containment in our time."
That's damn funny, Dawg, in really disturbing way.
Now everybody needs to get on track and start REALLY thinking about what they want the future to look like.
Because the nex four years are going to be a major restructuring... if we're very lucky and motivated.
I was wondering how long this sad-ass farce would go on. Paulson and Greenspan are already written into the history books, their time is over.
Right on the tilde, but my directions said put & in front of "Name" (the column heading of the table in the link).
I'm pretty sure calling him a chump was a racist statement.
My mom refuses to even think about coming to live with me. Or, what she is going to do when she can't live on her own any more. We have plenty of room.
I think she doesn't like the idea of me caring for her, and would prefer strangers to do it.
pay your taxes MR. Paulson, before your speak ill of the golden goose.
Short term shit looking uglier than Kashkari:
^IRX: Basic Chart for 13-WEEK TREASURY BILL - Yahoo! Finance
Didn't do much for axp either, yet.
I feel a Sunday confession coming. BAC maybe? Wells Fargo will wait until after Thanksgiving.
Lawyerliz, other than being a pain in the [deleted] today, Conjure is fine.
He sends his regards.
ades -- if you have a accents are easy.
for the umlaut, it's "Alt + u" followed by whatever vowel you want to put it on (there is also `,i,a,e,c,n instead of u off the top of my head that produce accents)
Kashnkari looks and talks like a BMW salesman whose idea of a good time on Friday night involves drugs and sluts.
Paulson is an asshole. The kind you read about in history. In the 17th to 19th century he would have been a diplomat.
Bush? Arrghh. We so screwed people.
I am going to Costco to add to my stocks.
From the AP, off-topic but very relevant to next year's focus on the economy (one may not isolate one from the other, they are all related):
"But the biggest threat to the proposed agreement was the warning relayed from al-Sistani, who has the political muscle to sink the deal.
"An official close to al-Sistani said Friday that the cleric has vowed to "directly intervene" if the final version of the agreement breaches Iraq's sovereignty. The official spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject."
Any suggestions for an IRA stock trading account. My 22 year old kid brother has some money and wants to open up a retirement account. I'd like to open him a Roth IRA and put him in cash for awhile and then get him in an index once I think stocks are closer to a bottom. But I'd also like to give him flexibility to pull and trade individual stocks ... eg... I want to get him into WFC when it hits 20, etc. So I recommend he open two different accounts, or can you all of that in one. So etrade, fidelity, I dunno, suggestions?
Wow, Paulson has some nerve talking about humiliation. I have but three words for him:
GO F**K YOURSELF!!!!
Is it wrong to wish death upon a person???
two market limit crashes
question is when
Ken, this Firefox plugin is amazing!
For those who haven't tried it out, it's much more than a killfile. For instance, it lists each poster in the sidebar with the number of posts next to the poster's handle. By clicking on the handle it will quickly take you to that poster's first post. Continue clicking and it will take you through every post by that author in the thread.
To those of you slamming it because it's censorship or cliquish, you should actually try it out before criticizing it.
Econoclast,
oh, I just never clicked on your link
MS
If the second election was stolen by suppressing the votes of brothers and sisters in Ohio, then WE all bear responsibility in some measure for allowing that to happen.
Like it or not (and I don't like and you don't like it), GWB has been our President.
EHP, I wish I had found that
Gosh, tell us why conjure is mad. Oh, never mind, we probably already know.
Tell him to have his favorite snack.
Ken's add on: unintended consequences.
Decreased visits to CR.
Repetitive conversations.
Multiple conversations in same thread. Even worse OT.
Use of power posters(EHP, Misean, etc.)by anonymous users.
Missed valuable commentary by the power posters that usually leads to astute observations.
FUN!
That is for the long-term, which to me is 1-2 years. Journal of Indexing asked several leading commodities gurus which specific contracts they liked best over the next several years. It was surprising how many of them said food.
Commodities Roundtable - JOI Articles
Because I am focusing more long-term, I'm not going with DAG, double short. I'm going with DBA. I like the way Deutsche Bank/Powershares commodity ETFs roll into the most cost-efficient contracts to maximize roll yield (take advantage of backwardation or minimize contango). They are the only ETF sponsors who have this method, which they call "Optimum Yield." It should add 2-3% per year to return.
That's me btw ... RhodesianGreenbackonVacation
Anonymous | 11.14.08 - 4:21 pm | #
Humiliated?
What?
We elected Obama !!!
EHP - thanks!
.............
mp, I missed your (and conjure's) last report. Any new ones coming out?
....
Need a job?...
Exclusive Web Networking site for the exclusive and rich. The elite will go last...
ASMALLWORLD
Screw you. Filter this you freakin techno nazis
WE ARE DOOMED.
Dance all you want. Talk all the fancy shit you want. We are screwed. Filter what? Half of you won't even have Internet this time next year.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
Are we a country or are we a mob?
A country is a top-down endeavor. Castigating the human race for disorderly behavior is like flagellating the tide.
Blame the Son of Heaven and his ministers when the nation is disordered.
I got a kick out of Philip Falcone from Harbinger talking about his humble roots yesterday. He could have had the decency to at least wash his hair.
Liz: Black Friday has just been postponed 'til Monday, but they'll still have to close these markets soon in order to protect pension and insurance assets.
Pavel. This is not the collapse you saw. This is going to be far uglier.
The hub needs a car. I truly wish he'd pull the money out of our cash value Pru life insurance and buy it--at least he'd have a car--but I am spitting into the wind, I know.
Half of you won't even have Internet this time next year.
nova: Ponys with Antlers
That is great. Internet will be so much faster.
I literally left @ 3pm to get a haircut, came back 10 minutes ago, and the market gave back everything.
Should have know. A total fade on another site showed up bullish. Some indexes didn't test yesterday's high yet, which is moderately bullish. I'm still looking for sideways up until mid-December, but Mr. Market won't make it easy for anyone.
Nades, Conjure has one forthcoming, but I can't say when. He's been very busy since returning from California.
ova and conjure both in a foul mood.
What's up?
It really is dumbfounding to step back from the technical discussions every once in a while and ponder how quickly we got from watching trouble brewing to Depression economics.
ova: Not the Internet. You can pry the Internet from my cold dead hands.
[The other day some wise poster noted the explosion of schadenfreude on these threads]
I think most of us could not contain the level of disgust as the media buzz and cocktail party coversation was all about the incredible wealth being created by this new fangled invention called home ownership.
Sound dumb. I hope you remember, and get angry. Because IF we get through this you and your decendants will be paying for it for a long time.
Piss off.
RhodesianGreenbackonVacation,
I use Scottrade. Easy, clean interface and cheep trades. As for finding the bottom... No one here knows or if they do they arent tellilng....
If you're asking about equities I'm going to refer you to Jas... He knows about them. (Note you cant shorte in an IRA)
For bonds i think C&C (IIRC) got a good deal the other day 16% yield to maturity (16 months IIRC)....
.....
PCA, get out of the 'market call' biz.
your horrendous.
That is great. Internet will be so much faster.
Gainas | 11.14.08 - 4:26 pm
Ah, got to have functioning providers.....
I know my exit point - beyond the 61.8% retracement of yesterday's bar and I'm out. Gap up Monday wouldn't surprise me
mp writes:
Conjure says, "Humiliation isn't the only thing this nation is going to suffer."
Hey mp.
Looks like the horse is about to et another blackjack lesson.
"Gainas writes:
Half of you won't even have Internet this time next year."
Believe it or not, I'm seeing a certain amount of this attitude leak into the general population. Okay, the general population of barflies and underemployed 22 year-old truckdrivers, but nevertheless...
Thanks rich!
Hanky's Mom
I agree with 100% and think I do get it.
Americans as consumers who thought cheap credit was their birthright that allowed them to live beyond their means were the very same Americans who for the same reason voted for Bush and believed they could have a war against evil-doers who never attacked us and not pay for and not serve in the military or make any sacrifices.
The same Americans who think they should get everyhting they want or need from government but not pay taxes.
The results: ballooning debt, public and private. Broken government. Decrepit infrastructure. etc.
We have humiliated ourselves as a nation.
Paulson is a jerk, incompetent, and probably corrupt.
But he was right this one time.
Hey Bill Payer,
You are not anonymous
Redniss, Seth
\tsredniss@rednissmoody.com
\t185 Franklin Street, 5th Floor
\tNew York, NY 10013
\tUS
\tPhone: 212-219-1120
Please do not post agai
hey, gav did get off that ledge? he might have been in the money today
"Looks like the horse is about to et another blackjack lesson."
Yup.