New York (AP) Struggling Canine Financial Services Group Inc. announced it has applied to convert to savings-and-loan status and said it will buy Purina for 10 billion bones.
Ah yes, let's make sure those city pensions are covered. Screw you if your unfunded pension is from working for a private company.
Wouldn't it make more sense for those cities to file for bankruptcy and get out from those obligations? I know it means they'd have a hard time attracting workers, but they already can't attract good workers anyway - they get the dregs of society or immigrants who don't know the thievery yet.
The NYSE will no longer halt trading in stocks that fall below $1.05, allowing the exchange to relist some 91 securities including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
If I bail out a city do I get a seat on the Council? That seems counterintuitive as until now bankrupting a city has been the traditional path to power.
Reduced public spending resulting from local government service reductions and layoffs along with tax increases, necessitated by the current economic crisis, will serve to slow economic growth, the mayors wrote.
Of course, INCREASED public spending also slows economic growth as that money is wasted on overgenerous pensions rather than worthwhile capital investments and R&D.
RE: philadelphia . . . that's not the way to do it but I reiterate for the 1,000,000,000th time my call for a massive infrastructure investment package.
I want supertrains, I want subways, I want commuter rail, I want clean energy, etc.
If we can piss away our national fisc on Iraq and TARP, surely we can take $500B - $1T and use it to rebuild our country.
How many cities, counties, states will need money soon? I rode the train from DC to Philadelphia a few months ago. The ride told me a story. Each chapter was another burnt out, abandoned warehouse or plant.
Forget the old model cities. The new ones may be worse. The next county grew like kudzu the last 7 or 8 years. Not enough law enforcement, roads, emergency services now. Wait until next budget year. Unsustainable.
I want supertrains, I want subways, I want commuter rail, I want clean energy, etc.
Which is it? Do you want transit or do you want energy efficiency? Can't have both. Only commuter rail transit even manages to have operational benefits albeit at the cost of massive subsides that negate those gains.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc plans to shed about 10 percent of its global workforce, a person familiar with the matter said Friday, as it tries to restore profit and quiet mounting criticism of Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.
The cuts could result in a loss of roughly 35,000 jobs, based on the bank's reported 352,000-person workforce as of Sept 30. Citigroup has already cut 23,000 jobs this year. Additional reductions would come from layoffs, the sale of units and attrition, the person said.
Citigroup spokesman Michael Hanretta declined to comment. Pandit in a memo said he will host a "town hall" meeting for employees on November 17 at 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT), at which he plans to discuss the bank's plans, including "the money we spend."
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc plans to shed about 10 percent of its global workforce, a person familiar with the matter said Friday, as it tries to restore profit and quiet mounting criticism of Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.
The cuts could result in a loss of roughly 35,000 jobs, based on the bank's reported 352,000-person workforce as of Sept 30. Citigroup has already cut 23,000 jobs this year. Additional reductions would come from layoffs, the sale of units and attrition, the person said.
Citigroup spokesman Michael Hanretta declined to comment. Pandit in a memo said he will host a "town hall" meeting for employees on November 17 at 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT), at which he plans to discuss the bank's plans, including "the money we spend."
An AP article on same issue said this about Phoenix:
"Phoenix's budget deficit is at least $200 million and could reach $250 million by June if tax revenues keep sliding. The figure represents up to 22 percent of the city's $1.2 billion general fund, which pays for most city services."
22% basically means you must cut everything except police, fire and trash pick up. Zero libraries, parks, etc.
The way in which the government has run the TARP is, of course, a disgrace - and the result is that everyone now has their hand out for a piece of it. Truly shameful - It is not possible to overstate the anger and disgust that I have over the actions of Bush, Paulson, et al in this matter. A two-year old could have foreseen the consequences of providing "bailouts" without significant sacrifices on the part of those involved in the transactions.
I thought the idea of the TARP was to avoid a panic by the counter-parties - but that the bad-banks' shareholders would still lose everything (for failing to properly supervise their agents, the management) and the bad-bank managers would be fired - just as what happens with the now-weekly FDIC closures of failed banks.
Instead, we have the perception of the TARP as a government handout - which is, unfortunately, what it has largely been.
Sen. Stabenow says auto bailout proposal $25 billion now but final amount being negotiated; says auto bailout proponents need 12 Republican votes in Senate, virtually all Democrats in Senate back pla
Gary writes:
"I want supertrains, I want subways, I want commuter rail, I want clean energy, etc."
How about some R&D so we don't end up building stuff that's obsolete before it's completed? A couple of Manhattan-type projects before all of the engineers retire, as there aren't many new engineers in the pipeline.
In terms of stuff we already do know how to build, how about an Internet infrastructure (including last mile) that's about 100 times faster than what we have today? Or even 20x faster as in Japan, UK, etc.?
"Struggling insurer Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. announced it has applied to convert to savings-and-loan status and said it will buy Federal Trust Corp. for $10 million."
Coincidence that Federal Trust Corporation and Resolution Trust Corporation are eerily similar. Probably not.
Insurance. Hartford is not the only one with problems. They grew multiple revenue streams. They wanted to provide the "Consumer" with one stop shopping for everything. A regular menu of services available.
Hartford is rated (as an insurance company) by four agencies, Best, Fitch, Moody's and S&P. All the ratings are still fairly high, according to company Web site.
Transit is energy efficient Dawg. Doubly so when powered by . . . clean energy!
Bring on the wind farms, the solar, the tidal, the geothermal. Hell, I'll take nuclear and (where appropriate) hydro.
The auto-centric economy and land use patterns of 20th century America were and are unsustainable. Time to make some changes. Call it, Bizarro Robert Moses.
Phoenix. Just like CA it is a habringer of the future. Be real nice when the Mexican gov totally loses control in that civil war they are currently having.
Phoenix is where my family members are alway armed. Phoenix is going to be the Detroit of the west.
Hartford was the leader in creating innovations in fancy variable annuity riders, such as step-up death benefits and living benefits. They all had one thing in common. If the stock market crashed, you would still get back all your money.
But insurance companies are supposed to fully hedge this risk by buying puts, swaps, etc. on the downside of the market. Hartford still hasn't explained what happened to cause such losses in its huge variable annuity book. They hedged bad? They didn't hedge at all? Until this is known, they should not get TARP.
But when it is known, a lot of their policyholders may leave.
How about some R&D so we don't end up building stuff that's obsolete before it's completed? A couple of Manhattan-type projects before all of the engineers retire, as there aren't many new engineers in the pipeline.
In terms of stuff we already do know how to build, how about an Internet infrastructure (including last mile) that's about 100 times faster than what we have today? Or even 20x faster as in Japan, UK, etc.?
sm_landlord | Homepage | 11.14.08 - 4:56 pm | #
I agree 100% with what you've written, and I've commented to that effect in the past. Was too lazy to type it all out again!
No, I hope for the best and plan for the worst. Seriously, if I had outlined what happened in the last 2 months a year ago I would have been labeled a fruitcup.
Who's next?
Allstate Banking
Farm Bureau Banking Comp.
State Farm S&L.
The New York Times Banking CO.
The Nola Deli on Burbon St S&L
Mercy Hosp. S&L
Jim's Gargage Banking and Accounting
The Greater MainSt. Nonprofit S&L
The Dog Waggers Blog Assoc. S&L
Hartford has not been any kind of "insurance capital" since Citi bought Travelers, circa 1997(?). Ever after, the companies were mostly all about "wealth management" nonsense. Financial sophistry.
We have not humiliated ourselves as a nation; we have humiliated ourselves as various administrations and Congresses (both parties) over the past 28 years have left us bankrupt and bereft of alternatives to become a nation that produces value in rather traditional ways instead of financial products.
We have also humiliated ourselves as we have let torture and the suspension of habeas corpus become standard policy.
So if you correctly, more or less, understood 2 years ago, what is happening now. Then, if you run the timeline out another year. Use the same way of evaluating data, what do you get?
"Large Hadron Collider Files to Become Bank Holding Company
Scientists at the Large Hadron collider filed papers today requesting status as a bank holding company. 'It's really a matter of professional jealosy,' remarked once scientist who requested anonymity. 'We were supposed to be the ones making black holes. Now those bastards in Washington are making them faster and bigger than we could have ever imagined.'"
cubes of jello made with vodka or pure-grain alcohol, etc
MP, man, the depression might be effecting your sense of humor. Or is Conjure just playing games with us by pretending that his imaginary friend MP doesn't know everything that he knows?
Jello is to food groups as Dick Cheney is to branches of government - you don't eat it, you don't drink it, it just goes down your gullet like a waterboarding session until you puke.
Hey, you people are starting to piss me off. When there's moral hazard there's at least a chance that people won't screw you. Where's the mystery these days? The suspense? Jeeze, it's getting to where it's not fun being a theory anymore.
"Seriously, if I had outlined what happened in the last 2 months a year ago I would have been labeled a fruitcup."
I haven't been on CR long enough to know, but it sounds like most regulars saw this coming a long time ago. I did too - I was convinced we were selling at the top when we sold our home in San Diego in 2000.
But no one really can say they had no warning of what was coming. It became pretty obvious that all was not right when BS's hedge funds blew up. The real confirmation for me was when the big banks abandoned the ARP market in unison in February. That moved underscored how worried they were about their capital positions.
People didn't want to acknowledge it, but there were plenty of signs of what could be coming. Most people I talk to still don't want to hear how much worse it may get.
Squeezing a few bucks out of the equities market is a sizeshow. This is where the REAL $$$$ is. From the fargin amazing department.
"According to Markit, which tracks credit default swaps, a type of insurance bond holders buy, General Growth unsecured bond holders currently pay $247,500 to insure $1 million of bonds against default for five years. Just last week, the price was $192,500. In July, it was $7,000, which shows the increasing perception of default risk."
How appropriate. Walt Disney boomed during the last depression and it is likely to be one of the companies that makes it out of this one, along with whatever agro-chemical company makes Jello these days.
"I haven't been on CR long enough to know, but it sounds like most regulars saw this coming a long time ago. I did too - I was convinced we were selling at the top when we sold our home in San Diego in 2000."
I thought 2000 was the top, too. I didn't understand the depths to which Wall Street would go to keep the music playing.
So, here's a question apropos of Bank Failure Fridays.
Why does the FDIC call center open at 4pm (Eastern) on Fridays, when the failure notices aren't posted until after 5 pm (IIRC, been a couple of weeks).
Does this mean you can find out which banks are on the list by calling in at 4:00 and acting like your bank has been hit and you want to know what to do?
Wave a wand and suddenly Hartford is not an insurance company but a bank, it's voodoo,'' said Jim Glickenhaus, who helps manage about $2 billion at Glickenhaus & Co. in New York. Treasury and lawmakersneed to take a deep breath and see what they're doing because they'll be through the TARP in the next 15 minutes.''
"When do they make the announcement that all employers will be paying in Disney Dollars until this January?
weepstah"
I'm not sure. I think the next announcement is "Children born after December 31, 2008, will pay a federal income tax rate at a minimum 45% of gross income until death. And, if they do not create a gross income by the age of 16, if female, we will sell their eggs to the Chinese, and, if male, we will sell one of their kidneys to the Russians."
"How appropriate. Walt Disney boomed during the last depression and it is likely to be one of the companies that makes it out of this one, along with whatever agro-chemical company makes Jello these days.
joe shmoe | 11.14.08 - 5:20 pm | # "
Disney was a boom-and-bust corporation until the opening of Disneyland gave them a steady cashflow. It's not clear to me that the average American family will have $1500 to blow on a week at Disney World.
As for Jello: big food winners in the last Depression included Twinkies - a cheap sweet pastry substitute -- and Campbell's soup. A 10-cent can of Campbell's, diluted somewhat beyond the package specs and bulked up with whatever chopped veggies could be found, was a pretty common hard-times dinner in the early '30s.
Don't laugh. This Dawg has a "Bambi" credit card in his wallet. Were I not insanely happy in my current relationship it would be the ultimate chick magnet. We've "saved" enough Disney Dollars to pay for meals and stays at places we would eat or stay at anyway in addition to cash back and a discount at the parks.
The whole idea of currency ex-US Dollars is appealing on several levels.
How appropriate. Walt Disney boomed during the last depression and it is likely to be one of the companies that makes it out of this one, along with whatever agro-chemical company makes Jello these days.
joe shmoe | 11.14.08 - 5:20 pm | #
dude - my crockpot is rarin to go and I'm preparing to fill the freezer with bambi. Dried beans and other legumes can make one hell of a dietary foundation.
LawyerLiz was talking about depression era relatives - this would be my grandparents and my first in-laws. I always knew the OCD traits of squeezing (and ultimately cutting open) the very last bit of toothpaste from the tube they drilled into me would prove beneficial. Of course, it drove my exes crazy.
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Realogy Corp. bonds tumbled after the owner of the Century 21 and Coldwell Banker brands said it's at risk of violating the terms of its bank loans and is offering to exchange about $1.1 billion of bonds at a discount for new debt.
Leon Black's buyout firm Apollo Management LP, which bought Realogy for $6.6 billion in April 2007, is trying to reduce debt by almost $600 million and stave off default at the Parsippany, New Jersey-based real-estate broker, according to a regulatory filing dated yesterday. Realogy's $1.7 billion of 10.5 percent notes due in 2014 fell 6.5 cents to 26.5 cents on the dollar, yielding 52 percent, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
Standard & Poor's slashed Realogy's corporate credit rating to two grades to CC from CCC.
``Given our previously stated view that Realogy's ability to service its current capital structure over the intermediate term will be challenged, we view the exchanges as being tantamount to default,'' Emile Courtney, an analyst at S&P, said in a report today. Realogy Bonds Tumble on Debt Exchange Offer to Avoid Default - Bloomberg.com
CR: There's a rather substantial barter exchange called ITEX. There are probably others, this one I'm familiar with. When I was living in Bellingham, WA they were very active. The group that controlled the local market were based out of Seattle.
Perhaps, a thoughtful pieec on bartering would stimulate a thoughtful exchange here.
Thanks, whatever you or Tanta might be able to conjure, or perhaps a guest poster?
Gary writes
If we can piss away our national fisc on Iraq and TARP, surely we can take $500B - $1T and use it to rebuild our country.
Gary | 11.14.08 - 4:50 pm | #
Are you kidding? $500B won't even get us past the environmentalists lawyers.
Bailout Lacks Oversight Despite Billions Pledged
Watchdog Panel Is Empty; Report Is Unfinished
n the six weeks since lawmakers approved the Treasury's massive bailout of financial firms, the government has poured money into the country's largest banks, recruited smaller banks into the program and repeatedly widened its scope to cover yet other types of businesses, from insurers to consumer lenders.
Along the way, the Bush administration has committed $290 billion of the $700 billion rescue package.
Yet for all this activity, no formal action has been taken to fill the independent oversight posts established by Congress when it approved the bailout to prevent corruption and government waste. Nor has the first monitoring report required by lawmakers been completed, though the initial deadline has passed.
"It's a mess," said Eric M. Thorson, the Treasury Department's inspector general, who has been working to oversee the bailout program until the newly created position of special inspector general is filled. "I don't think anyone understands right now how we're going to do proper oversight of this thing."
You are all such pessimists. You are forgetting the American ace in the hole. The US military can always be used to take over resource-rich countries and sell off their resources to pay for the reconstruction of the US economy.
Some are perhaps being obtuse for effect. Markets will evolve.
I am NOT a fan of ITEX, there are, I am sure others and some here may well have experience with bartering locally. I know I do.
There's a certain skill set that needs be developed to be effective. i.e. how to do a three way exchange (can't wait to hear the yowls from this one). Then there's the bank that naturally develops. And other things like that there.
But if it's going to get as rough as I and some here believe, these will be worthwhile discussions for the uninitiated.
I think we should collectively come up with an economic/financial manifesto outlining a strategy to address this situation. Spend some time knocking around ideas, the consequences, etc. Write it up, and send it to Krugman or someone who might be able to get it published. Just a completely anonymous but well thought out strategy.
It would beat medicating our ulcers with jello shots.
rich writes:
Hartford is rated (as an insurance company) by four agencies, Best, Fitch, Moody's and S&P. All the ratings are still fairly high, according to company Web site.
These the same companies that were rating mortgages. Need I say more?
2 Trillion is the expected amount of money needed to rebuild nations infrastructure
That was from the civil engineers I recall (the $1.6tn estimate) and as such would include roads, highways, overpasses, bridges, waterworks but not the electric grid which since being privatized in the ?80s is in rough shape today
While upgrades to the electric grid are necessary, especially if embarking on a green jobs/distributed energy generation/green energy strategy, it is not perfect stimulus. Largest wind turbines are made overseas, transformers are coming from Brazil, etc
The government is quickly turning this from a problem WITHIN the system to a problem that THREATENS the system itself.
The government needs to amputate AIG and Freddie and Fannie just as quickly as possible. And stop injecting capital by the hundreds of trillions of dollars.
If I were the president, I would announce that businesses that made bad decisions will be allowed to go into re-organization and bankruptcy. I would assure everyone that this is a normal and fair process that has been honed over two hundred years. I would further beg all persons who had ever worked for the bankruptcy court system to please come back and help serve their country once again. I would then announce extensions to unemployment compensation and temporary aid to needy families.
Then we'd let the system work itself out naturally and without faulty government intervention which is mis-allocating capital in a major way.
The bailout legislation frightened even prudent and well-capitalized consumers and businesses and actually caused the problem to be worse.
I know someone who works at a government agency that received an email from Pelosi suggesting they get projects ready for some stimulus package. But reading the newspaper, it seems that will be postponed.
Principle #1: One cannot solve a debt crisis by issuing more debt.
Principle #2: We must stop converting private debts into public debts, because we cannot put the national government and economy at risk of either a debt-default or a hyperinflation.
Principle #3: To restore confidence, any further changes to the financial and economic system must be made gradually and after due debate and discussion. Except for those changes which involve actually enforcing existing laws, rules and regulations.
Ponyless in NJ writes:
You are all such pessimists. You are forgetting the American ace in the hole. The US military can always be used to take over resource-rich countries and sell off their resources to pay for the reconstruction of the US economy. at 541 above
we tried that
it was called Iraq
but alas the sunni, shia, and kurds are having second thoughts about signing over
In addition, Hartford's general account investment reflects a fairly illiquid portfolio, which could aggravate problem for the insurer in case it sees a repeat of the 3Q2008 losses in the next the quarter. As at the end of September 2008, out of the total general account investments portfolio of $89.8 bn, $77.2 bn were investments in securities and $12.6 bn were investments in policy loans, mortgage loans and other undisclosed investments, all of which are highly illiquid. Out of $77.2 bn investment in securities, 22.5% and 75.2% are in the illiquid level 3 and level 2 assets, respectively. Amid rising redemption pressure off fears of a decline in investment value, the company is likely to face liquidity crunch as the value of investments plunge while losses continue to mount. In addition, the scheduled payment of a debt installment of $530 million in 4Q2008 is likely to add to the insurer's current problems, given the constrained liquidity situation in global capital markets.
Ponyless in NJ,
One of the commenters here, I will let them identify themselves if they choose, heard of Pelosi instructing local governments to prepare proposals for infrastructure spending ASAP. Plan on the order of $150bn? I think
Have seen similar comments echoed by analysts on Wall St for a plan ready for the Jan 20 inauguration.
Because of the timeline, it will just be going to projects that were previously planned. Although that does free up their budgets which has a positive impact as well. The spending may be nice, but it's relatively small
"agree with mp....many people laughed at me over the last year as I pointed these things out. I hate to say it but I laugh at them now.
None of this was unforseeable.....NONE OF IT."
There are plenty of us who saw this coming. But who knew when. I thought houses going for 5x earnings was insane, but they eventually made it to 8x in Florida and 11x in California. Who knew when it would finally go bust. My short positions were eating away at me for quite some time, and only in the past 3 months went green, overall. I was beginning to worry they would be able to keep the music going for another 5 years.
Too many, too stupid for too long.
Of course now, the silliness is thinking it is even halfway done. TARP is doing a wonderful job of slowing the retraction and extending the pain, but there is no way we are done until housing gets to 2.5 - 3x earnings. My bet is that we over correct.
I think it should definitely start with principles (a preamble, if you will), but it should get very concrete. I think we can honestly do this - we have lots of people with diverse talents who see different aspects of the crisis and we can figure something out.
Seriously, this might be the beginning of a decade of hell. If we have something to contribute, we should.
Anonymous, of course that is why they want nukes. and that is why they need to be prevented from getting them. if they got nukes we couldn't invade them anymore so we must invade them before they got nukes or we'll lose our chance..
I work with 5 rabid republicans, all 2nd generation gov't workers, all with solid wages, benefits, pension plans, etc. They can't get through a day without bitching about how their victims of big gov't/high taxes/unions.
What do we start calling these people - the self-hating middle class?
12many dopes writes:
Let's all get together and request that the Cubs become a bank - then they could pick up some players that don't wrestle each other in the dugout
Infrastructure 'investment' did not work in Japan or 1930's America as nice as Hoover Dam and that mighty Japanese bridge might be.
From my POV there is no solution save
to allow asset prices sink to the level that makes them attractive investments again. Well there is another World War. Worked wonders last
time for the US but as a policy proposal it would have to be 'sub rosa
Good for you to attempt to be constructive. There's a lot of information and intelligence here, in between the snark and noise.
I noticed one thing about the letter that those many economists got in front of congress: They all agreed that the original Paulson Plan was bad. But they did not (could not?) put forward a consensus for a solution.
If those well-mannered academics couldn't come to an agreement, I think you're going to have a heck of a time building consensus in this free-form of a forum. I don't want that to dissuade you from trying, just don't be mad if it doesn't work out.
I would suggest finding a password protected wiki, and starting a document there. Then, invite those you feel could contribute to it, and let people have a crack at it incrementally. Let people in a few at a time. See what comes out of it.
It could be amazing stone soup, or it could degenerate into hysterical bickering.
possibly, but you go to your next war with the army you have, not the army you once had. (and it's broke too. and on the international stage at that. no fault of the boots on the ground.)
We're now officially tuned into one another's brain waves.
I was looking at a few barter exchanges on line this AM. I'm thinking that now would be the time to start laying the groundwork for a neighborhood/town thing and see where it goes.
Are you related to Обломов, the character in the Russian novel by Goncharov? Oblomovists, like their namesake, are unable even to get up in the morning, much less get anything done.
"I would suggest finding a password protected wiki, and starting a document there. Then, invite those you feel could contribute to it, and let people have a crack at it incrementally. Let people in a few at a time. See what comes out of it."
All Fall Down writes:
"Hartford insures me, my wife and our cars. AIG insures the Cessna. Am I insured?????"
Insured, yes. The question would be: Can you collect if need be?
I expect that the desirable policies would be sold off to other insurers if these entities go down, but I don't have any historical references at hand.
You could move your policies, I suppose.
re: Manifesto
I hate to stifle constructive thought, but I see 2 problems to start with.
It presumes:
There is a solution that is feasible (affordable costs in terms of money and politics/power)
The solution can be discussed in public officially
The solutions I can think of have both short term and long term risks. However I think there is enough commonality in successful solutions to provide a framework.
Ponyless in NJ,
I don't have a list of projects going ahead, but I can generally tell you it would be things like major maintenance, bridges/overpasses, transit
Medicare for All .... To get real money immediately into the economy we need Medicare for All. Medicare for All would help re-capitalize business (especially manufacturing), school districts, state and local government, individual payers and the under and uninsured. The states could use any excess of savings for unemployment and pension funds. Overall this could save hundreds of thousands if not millions of jobs while putting money quickly and directly into the system in the most efficient, fairest way possible ... taking care of people's medical bills.
"Seriously, this might be the beginning of a decade of hell. If we have something to contribute, we should."
Exactly. It was the failure of the wise to restrain the foolish that got us all into this crisis in the first place. And the longer we wait to dig out, the worse it will get.
I would point out that each of the three principles I suggested implies some very clear immediate actions...
1) Suspend the TARP and other bailouts, or at least avoid throwing any more money down that drain. The taxpayers' Congress should spend the $350B at all since the first $350B was grossly mis-spent.
2) Return to pay-as-you-go federal spending with duly-deliberated appropriations bills.
3) Get the regulatory agencies back to regulating, and staff up the fraud units in particular. Plenty of fraudulently-obtained money can be returned to the nation in the form of legal judgments!
But as I said near the start of an earlier thread, it's a long time to January 20, and as someone commented there -- the regime change may simply put a different batch of looters in charge.
2 Trillion is the expected amount of money needed to rebuild nations infrastructure
Tim & the Xmas Miracle | 11.14.08 - 5:39 pm | #
I'll gladly take the whole $2T in installments over 2-4 years.
bearly, if you want to double down on your election bet I'm willing to lay odds on a $500 billion + infrastructure package passing before the end of February.
"From my POV there is no solution save
to allow asset prices sink to the level that makes them attractive investments again. Well there is another World War. Worked wonders last
time for the US but as a policy proposal it would have to be 'sub rosa'
Unit472 | 11.14.08 - 6:03 pm | # "
Have to be with nukes or mercenaries. The middle class isn't letting go of its preciously nurtured Justins and Taras to go off and die in some -- war. That's for the poor people.
Items that improve economic efficiencies and have a long term payoff.
Electrified highways. Transport becomes way more efficient if you only have to push a car/truck + motor, instead of car/truck + engine + fuel.
Side benefit: robust electrical grid.
Double benefit: Wind farms/alternative energy can be set-up anywhere there is a electrified highway which also provides the access for installation/setup.
Ancillary Benefit: Electric cars would give GM/Ford/sensible start-up a new business.
Sweet revenge: The oil companies/car co.s who bought-up and dismantled turn of the century public transportation, take it on the chin.
Bob Dobbs, in all honesty do you think a mother's love for her child has increased since WW2? That a father was indifferent to the fate of his son in battle?
Don't want to make too big a point about it but today's children are just that compared to the boys who had to grow up in a big hurry in past
generations.
Senate Democratic leader Reid calls Bush request for new auto industry aid "unacceptable", says Treasury Dept. should use existing authority to help automakers which would not require congressional actio
Does it make sense to spend on alternative energy if the price of oil/gas is cheap? Isn't that somewhat inefficient?
As for electric cars produced by GM/Ford.. Are we considering tariffs? Other impediments to free trade? Do we force the renegotiation of union labor contracts?
Are we talking about reindustrialization through import substitution?
I was looking at a few barter exchanges on line this AM. I'm thinking that now would be the time to start laying the groundwork for a neighborhood/town thing and see where it goes.
homedad43 | Homepage | 11.14.08 - 6:07 pm
Unfortunately, we're wasting our time and energy on the morons here. But, if somehow, we can stay in touch as to progress via this board, I'd appreciate.
Blackhalo,
You could not reasonably have 'electrified highways'. To support the maximum potential density on the highway, you would need many substations. Every 1000ft at best.
Would be extremely expensive to build, operate, and maintain simply because the highway network is so vast.
That's the benefit of roads, you can lay them down at low cost quickly.
The way to accomplish what you're thinking of is a highway network that is like a rail network your personal vehicle can get on to/off of, and have the network take control of the vehicle for the duration.
Money would still be better spent developing traditional inter and intra urban rail.
Can wind or solar deliver a watt of power for less than coal?
If not you are setting up the USA for the biggest boondoogle in our history.
May has well have subsidized the farrier industry in 1900 as tie the US to a technology that is less competitive than what the rest of the world will be using.
And using it they will. Even the EU has far more coal plants on the drawing board than does the US. They Euros talks a good game and ratify treeaties they will weasel out of but, then they have no Euro Supreme Court to enforce their big words and mighty plans. Where the rubber meets
the road, literally, Angela Merkel will demur from carbon emissions as will Sarkozy and any other European politician who wants to stay in power!
It is something to think about at least. I purposefully used the word strategy instead of solution. I do not think there is a solution or anything that is going to make this all go away. But I think there are a hell of a lot better ways to achieve a softer landing than what we are doing right now. I'm going to try to turn my mind away from picking apart our "leaders" and the crap they come up with and try to start thinking of better ways to go about dealing with this situation. I think we can come up with a consensus response and will check into the wiki thing.
"Does it make sense to spend on alternative energy if the price of oil/gas is cheap? Isn't that somewhat inefficient?"
Oil and gas are finite resources. Their cost will only go up over time. Prices will fluctuate but over time they will only go up. Wind/Solar/Nuclear are relatively infinite. At some point/threshold, alternative energy will become the economical choice. My argument is that if my tax dollars are to be spent, I would prefer them be spent anticipating the inevitable rather that trying to postpone it.
"Now is probably not the best time to try to balance the budget..."
Strictly speaking, I wasn't advocating balancing the budget. Just that new spending should be balanced by new revenue rather than more TARP-like handouts.
See also Principle #1... you can't borrow your way out of a national debt crisis.
I am of the opinion that a Keynesian stimulus is not the right solution this time around, because the total national debt burden at 350% of GDP is too high already. (It is a factor of 3? higher than it was in 1929-1931.)
I would be overwhelmingly in favor of redirecting existing spending into more productive "investment"-type uses. For instance, we spend billions through NIH producing scientific discoveries, but there's no easy channel for converting discoveries into cures. That should be fixed, and it doesn't need new money.
There are many other ways in which we squander government money, both present and future. For example, Public-sector pensions are overdue to be trimmed.
We have the system we have because it satisfied the previous political balance. With a new balance comes the opportunity to engineer some changes to the system. We must choose wisely...
What investments are large enough that it only makes sense for the USG to invest in but that have continuous benefits by lowering the longer-term cost of doing business in this country?
Senate Democratic leader Reid calls Bush request for new auto industry aid "unacceptable", says Treasury Dept. should use existing authority to help automakers which would not require congressional action
This is the "pass the buck" crap that got us the USA-PATRIOT Act and the AUMF. When TARP was passed, it was contemplated only for banks and bank holding companies, and that's the way BushCo reads it. Probably doesn't hurt that Michigan the UAW bleed blue, but life sucks.
If Congress wants to expand TARP to include auto companies, put it to a vote.
Unit472 writes:
In 1941 we didn't have an army to speak of. Today we have ( along with the Brits) the only combat experienced officer and NCO corp in the world.
We are the Germans of 1940.
Unit472 | 11.14.08 - 6:12 pm
Apparently there are still some people here that don't see a bad thing when they post it online.
To become the "Germans of 1940", we need the Weimar Lovin' and a single political party with a charasmatic leader. See why some of us are cringing?
What investments are large enough that it only makes sense for the USG to invest in but that have continuous benefits by lowering the longer-term cost of doing business in this country?
Rail is degrading compared to the personal auto and I travel by rail but, with the proviso, I have my own compartment.
The private car is the poor man's equivalent of the private jet. No sane
person is going to give up the privacy
comfort and choice of travelling companion for the Hobson's choice of public transit unless they have to.
Public transit is for loser's. It only works for peak commute hours because there is no alternative that is affordable and because, you are travelling with similiar people. Get on a downtown bus or train at 7:30 PM
Monday morning is one thing. Get on that same conveyance at 11:00 PM at night a whole different experience beyond having a seat.
Plus nuclear waste can be recycled making it much more fuel efficient. France does this and produces much less nuclear waste than the US, who does not recycle used fuel.
Wisdom Seeker, I think we differ fundamentally on this issue...
I can't see any entity but the government being willing to invest/spend in the economy with the kind of hard landing that we are in for.
Any cuts by the government in any programs or increases in taxation only make the landing even harder. Even 'squandered' money is circulating through the economy. Reallocating the 'squandered' money could be highly socially disruptive and make it a difficult approach to use given our current political system.
With reprocessing, there is enough uranium to outlast the coal. Ask the French or Japanese about that, since they've both been sensible in this arena.
Unfortunately the world has decided to pursue fusion by means of an international multi-decade boondoggle (ITER), which means no government-driven fusion energy solution within the next 2 decades at minimum. "Fusion is 20 years away, and always will be..."
What investments are large enough that it only makes sense for the USG to invest in but that have continuous benefits by lowering the longer-term cost of doing business in this country?
Capital intensive energy investments- eg nuclear plants, fusion energy, tar-sand separation, coal gasification, solar arrays, tidal generators, wind turbines
We're decades (centuries?) away from nuclear fusion. If we're really going to run out of cheap oil, we'll run out of it long before we can fuse helium nuclei and harness the energy into a usable form.
Blackhalo,
I still like your open minded ambition. If the funding for such a project could get beyond a business proposal stage, it would attract a lot of smart minds and be a lot of fun to work on
I'm optimistic about the transportation innovations to come. I have some ideas that are feasible today, if but for the initial capital cost to get them off the ground. It's best to focus on dense urban areas for business feasibility/success. However some things like cars that communicate with each other, or even handle all the driving, could spill over to highway driving (more coordination = less braking, shorter travel times) -- the primary problem with that is people would feel safer in an accident caused by a human than a robot
All the other G& nations provide single payer , for about half they insure everyone ...
The other G7 nations don't have the same hangups about death that we do.
Another consideration for those wondering about the Treasury financing the deficit. No more borrowing from the Medicare HI Trust fund because it was exhausted early this year.
SS trust fund will be next. 2017? I think, but that projection was HIGHLY optimistic.
"Energy required to extract hydrogen from water or natural gas is not infinite."
My math my be off but is suspect there is enough energy in 5 gallons of water to extract all of the hydrogen in the Great Lakes.
Fusion, baby. However we have not figured out how to do that, (yet). Throw a couple billion of TARP at it and who knows? Big oil, coal and nat gas are not big fans.
What investments are large enough that it only makes sense for the USG to invest in but that have continuous benefits by lowering the longer-term cost of doing business in this country?
Ponyless in NJ
Fusion - the Z machine at Sandia could be producing production levels of clean unlimited electricity in under 20 years, with funding that is.
There won't be fusion for a long time, unless governments decide to stop making so much information 'a matter of national security'. It impedes innovators, and scares off others from entering such a bureaucratic hopeless field
I like rail, but we have to be realistic. Urban area mass transit, great. Regional, maybe. But long distance interstate? No way. Distances and travel times are too long to be practical in the US, even with bullet trains.
"Unit472 writes:
Bob Dobbs, in all honesty do you think a mother's love for her child has increased since WW2? That a father was indifferent to the fate of his son in battle?"
No -- but social segmentation has. Back in the '40s everybody served -- from the bottom of the society to the top. More recently, the middle- and upper-middle classes don't send their kids to war. How many congressmen have children who ever served? How many congressmen under 60 ever served?
On top of that -- a lot of families now have only one child. Not to be too harsh, but in a family of three or four, losing one child to war is not the end of the family. But if you have only one child -- it is.
Lincoln National, Genworth Financial Will Buy Insured Lenders
By Andrew Frye
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Lincoln National Corp. and Genworth Financial Inc. plan to buy savings and loan companies, a move that may make the insurers eligible for the Treasury's $700 billion bailout program.
The purchase plans were disclosed by Office of Thrift Supervision spokesman Bill Ruberry in a telephone interview today. He declined to say whether Philadelphia-based Lincoln and Richmond, Virginia-based Genworth applied for aid from the U.S.
You're saying you're just peachy-keen happy, just fine, no problems ... with the way the federal spending and taxation policies have been arranged over the past 8 years?
You're right, we do have a fundamental disagreement. I think there's a lot that could be done without net new spending of money that doesn't exist except in a Congressperson's imagination.
But you did say:
"I can't see any entity but the government being willing to invest/spend in the economy with the kind of hard landing that we are in for."
Not much disagreement on that.
"Any cuts by the government in any programs or increases in taxation only make the landing even harder. Even 'squandered' money is circulating through the economy."
Not when the national wealth has been handed over to multimillionaires who aren't spending it. We could immediately improve the economy by increasing the velocity of money: take it from the accounts of the fraudsters who failed to handle it wisely, and give it to those who are in need of employment. All we need for this is some honest law enforcement; no new taxes required.
"Reallocating the 'squandered' money could be highly socially disruptive and make it a difficult approach to use given our current political system."
The new political consensus already favors a reallocation of Federal resources compared to the previous political consensus. I don't think Obama-Pelosi-Reid are going to find a "difficult approach" here. Our role should be to guide them so we don't squander even more than we already have.
Healthcare costs are killing American business. We need a national plan like Medicare or we fall further behind in our competitiveness.
Nationalized heath care make American workers competitive globally, if the corporations who hire and fire do not have to pay for it. It is subsidized labor an long overdue.
If implemented sensibly, backsourcing would take off.
Healthcare costs are killing American business. We need a national plan like Medicare or we fall further behind in our competitiveness.
BC/BS did a study once that showed that America spent about 80% of its health care at the beginning and ends of life; people would be surprised to find out how much is spent on preemies or that cancer drugs can cost $20K/month. Which is ironic, because once they're healthy the government couldn't give a crap...
Ponyless in NJ writes:
"What investments are large enough that it only makes sense for the USG to invest in but that have continuous benefits by lowering the longer-term cost of doing business in this country?"
Nuclear plants. Only the government can make them happen, due to nimbyism.
Breeder reactors can produce new fuel as they burn the old fuel. The technology has been known since the 1950s, but has not been fully implemented due to fears of diversion of the fuel to weapons purposes.
The rail system works in the UK to the extent it does ( and I challenge you to talk to talk with British commuters rather than US tourists to see how well it does) because, like NYC, London is special.
Private cars are for the rich in central London because of congestion fees, high fuel prices and limited parking. Same as Manhattan.
You can get a person making $100,000 per year onto a train under such conditions but you can't get that same
person to give up their car if they live in lesser towns and burgs.
I used to take the ferry from Sausalito into San Francisco. Very nice way to commute. All subsidized by the people backed up paying their tolls on the Golden Gate bridge. It only worked though if you were going to downtown San Francisco. If you had to get on a Muni bus and travel out to the the Sunset district it was didn't.
I hate this first thiing.
Marlin. Dory.
Mortgage Pig told me to come here!
Nemo?
Imagine: California as a bank
Increase subsidies and there will be an increase in susidees.
My dog wants to join:
New York (AP) Struggling Canine Financial Services Group Inc. announced it has applied to convert to savings-and-loan status and said it will buy Purina for 10 billion bones.
I'll lend to your bank, if you lend to mine!
Welcom comrades, welcome. Especially, comrades Pauly and Binky. So when do we start the world take over.
The fixes/prescriptions are going to kill the patient faster than the disease.
Meet your new Treasury Secretary: Dr. Jack Kevorkia
When are they going to expand this thing. 700 billion will not be enough
@1worldcurrencyyogi
"What's the exponential of irrational?"
In 1934 Gelfond proved that a to the b is transcendental if a is an algebraic number not equal to 0 or 1 and if b is an irrational algebraic number.
Anyone ever notice that the Friday before Options Ex Week tends to move in the opposite direction of the following options ex week.
As I said in the previous thread, we are all banks, now.
I would like a Tanta report, if possible. Missing her.
OT:
What about HBOS?
Wasn't the worst over?
repost:
Nibbled on HIG DEC calls as soon as this hit. This got run up to 35 right before Oct. expiration....who's to say they won't try it again....
Just a trade though.....
Ciao
MS
"unfunded pension liabilities"
Here let me share my retirement savings with you. Better yet, let my grandchildren pay the way.
God Bless America.
Tim-
Shhhhhhh don't tell Eric that.
Ciao
MS
HIG to 35? That'll be something...
Their new logo will be a crowned stag mounting a taxpayer.
Hahahaha gary.
Ah yes, let's make sure those city pensions are covered. Screw you if your unfunded pension is from working for a private company.
Wouldn't it make more sense for those cities to file for bankruptcy and get out from those obligations? I know it means they'd have a hard time attracting workers, but they already can't attract good workers anyway - they get the dregs of society or immigrants who don't know the thievery yet.
o...I'm not advocating that it will get pushed that far up at all. But I'm betting it will get pushed up...just not that far.
Ciao
MS
Anyone with an opinion on Allstate? Allstate annuities?
So when exactly do we stop bailing out everyone and start shooting them?
Can't believe Elvis didn't beat me to it.
The NYSE will no longer halt trading in stocks that fall below $1.05, allowing the exchange to relist some 91 securities including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
MS been in and out a few times...think I'll move along for now. HIG bin berry gut to me!
reptillian writes:
"Anyone with an opinion on Allstate? Allstate annuities?"
I would be very worried about any annuity at this point. Who are Allstate's counterparties? That might help you find an answer.
Their new logo will be a crowned stag mounting a taxpayer.
Gary
ROTLWL
If I bail out a city do I get a seat on the Council? That seems counterintuitive as until now bankrupting a city has been the traditional path to power.
Reduced public spending resulting from local government service reductions and layoffs along with tax increases, necessitated by the current economic crisis, will serve to slow economic growth, the mayors wrote.
Of course, INCREASED public spending also slows economic growth as that money is wasted on overgenerous pensions rather than worthwhile capital investments and R&D.
RE: philadelphia . . . that's not the way to do it but I reiterate for the 1,000,000,000th time my call for a massive infrastructure investment package.
I want supertrains, I want subways, I want commuter rail, I want clean energy, etc.
If we can piss away our national fisc on Iraq and TARP, surely we can take $500B - $1T and use it to rebuild our country.
The only time where options ex trend didn't work this year was in January (kept going down) and in September (virtually no change)
How many cities, counties, states will need money soon? I rode the train from DC to Philadelphia a few months ago. The ride told me a story. Each chapter was another burnt out, abandoned warehouse or plant.
Forget the old model cities. The new ones may be worse. The next county grew like kudzu the last 7 or 8 years. Not enough law enforcement, roads, emergency services now. Wait until next budget year. Unsustainable.
Nom Nom Nom Nom
This ever expanding TARP reminds me of the old image of a snake eating it's own tail. This mess won't stop until we've devoured our nation as a whole.
My .02
SGIP
(bows, exits stage right)
MS my guess is 20... We got a good rally at the end of today so it may sell off before going higher.
The cities are not going to get TARP money. Jefferson County, Alabama already asked and has been turned down.
Totally agree, Gary.
I want supertrains, I want subways, I want commuter rail, I want clean energy, etc.
Which is it? Do you want transit or do you want energy efficiency? Can't have both. Only commuter rail transit even manages to have operational benefits albeit at the cost of massive subsides that negate those gains.
TIm-
The real key to it is to look at the week before....the % moves are pretty staggering from bottom to top (in the two week time frame).
Ciao
MS
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc plans to shed about 10 percent of its global workforce, a person familiar with the matter said Friday, as it tries to restore profit and quiet mounting criticism of Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.
The cuts could result in a loss of roughly 35,000 jobs, based on the bank's reported 352,000-person workforce as of Sept 30. Citigroup has already cut 23,000 jobs this year. Additional reductions would come from layoffs, the sale of units and attrition, the person said.
Citigroup spokesman Michael Hanretta declined to comment. Pandit in a memo said he will host a "town hall" meeting for employees on November 17 at 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT), at which he plans to discuss the bank's plans, including "the money we spend."
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc plans to shed about 10 percent of its global workforce, a person familiar with the matter said Friday, as it tries to restore profit and quiet mounting criticism of Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.
The cuts could result in a loss of roughly 35,000 jobs, based on the bank's reported 352,000-person workforce as of Sept 30. Citigroup has already cut 23,000 jobs this year. Additional reductions would come from layoffs, the sale of units and attrition, the person said.
Citigroup spokesman Michael Hanretta declined to comment. Pandit in a memo said he will host a "town hall" meeting for employees on November 17 at 8 a.m. EST (1300 GMT), at which he plans to discuss the bank's plans, including "the money we spend."
Citigroup to cut 10 percent of jobs: source
| Reuters
An AP article on same issue said this about Phoenix:
"Phoenix's budget deficit is at least $200 million and could reach $250 million by June if tax revenues keep sliding. The figure represents up to 22 percent of the city's $1.2 billion general fund, which pays for most city services."
22% basically means you must cut everything except police, fire and trash pick up. Zero libraries, parks, etc.
The way in which the government has run the TARP is, of course, a disgrace - and the result is that everyone now has their hand out for a piece of it. Truly shameful - It is not possible to overstate the anger and disgust that I have over the actions of Bush, Paulson, et al in this matter. A two-year old could have foreseen the consequences of providing "bailouts" without significant sacrifices on the part of those involved in the transactions.
I thought the idea of the TARP was to avoid a panic by the counter-parties - but that the bad-banks' shareholders would still lose everything (for failing to properly supervise their agents, the management) and the bad-bank managers would be fired - just as what happens with the now-weekly FDIC closures of failed banks.
Instead, we have the perception of the TARP as a government handout - which is, unfortunately, what it has largely been.
Congress will set up a separate fund to bailout their cronies and political machines from the districts from which they come.
And don't even think about a 'management change' or an 'equity holder wipeout' for the cities that get some of Uncle Sam's sugar.
I'm not wearing pants and I am playing with myself!!!
No not really, just seeing if Ken will put himself in his kill file.
Conjure says, "Moral hazard at its finest."
Sen. Stabenow says auto bailout proposal $25 billion now but final amount being negotiated; says auto bailout proponents need 12 Republican votes in Senate, virtually all Democrats in Senate back pla
Ken: does that make you a "crank holding company"?
killfile me while you're at it, this juvenile nonsense is pretty much all I have.
Gary writes:
"I want supertrains, I want subways, I want commuter rail, I want clean energy, etc."
How about some R&D so we don't end up building stuff that's obsolete before it's completed? A couple of Manhattan-type projects before all of the engineers retire, as there aren't many new engineers in the pipeline.
In terms of stuff we already do know how to build, how about an Internet infrastructure (including last mile) that's about 100 times faster than what we have today? Or even 20x faster as in Japan, UK, etc.?
Conjure asks, "Got toilet paper?"
"You're going to need it."
"Struggling insurer Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. announced it has applied to convert to savings-and-loan status and said it will buy Federal Trust Corp. for $10 million."
Coincidence that Federal Trust Corporation and Resolution Trust Corporation are eerily similar. Probably not.
Insurance. Hartford is not the only one with problems. They grew multiple revenue streams. They wanted to provide the "Consumer" with one stop shopping for everything. A regular menu of services available.
Hartford is rated (as an insurance company) by four agencies, Best, Fitch, Moody's and S&P. All the ratings are still fairly high, according to company Web site.
The Hartford : Investor Relations : Company Ratings
So, why does a company with ratings this high need to tap the TARP?
It's a desperate move, because it sends a message to their customers to GET OUT NOW. No insurance company can survive a run on the vault.
Ratings agencies are very slow to change insurance co. ratings. Lately, they seem even slower than usual.
Transit is energy efficient Dawg. Doubly so when powered by . . . clean energy!
Bring on the wind farms, the solar, the tidal, the geothermal. Hell, I'll take nuclear and (where appropriate) hydro.
The auto-centric economy and land use patterns of 20th century America were and are unsustainable. Time to make some changes. Call it, Bizarro Robert Moses.
"22% basically means you must cut everything except police, fire and trash pick up. Zero libraries, parks, etc.
serf hopeinsd"
22% means don't even go one MPH over the speed limit, always buckle up, and use your blinker.
lawyerliz writes:
As I said in the previous thread, we are all banks, now.
Bankrupt, you mean .
Will the insurance city (Hartford) become the S&L city?
"Bring on the wind farms,"
That is easy to say if you are not a bird.
Gary writes:
Transit is energy efficient Dawg. Doubly so when powered by . . . clean energy!
If pigs had wings. Assertion and/or repetition are not evidence. Source? I'll use the BTS as refutation.
Bankrupt too.
Phoenix. Just like CA it is a habringer of the future. Be real nice when the Mexican gov totally loses control in that civil war they are currently having.
Phoenix is where my family members are alway armed. Phoenix is going to be the Detroit of the west.
Anonymous writes:
lawyerliz writes:
As I said in the previous thread, we are all banks, now.
Bankrupt, you mean .
Anonymous | 11.14.08 - 4:58 pm | #
The new definition of a bank is an institution that does not have any money.
It's not efficient now, but it will be in the future.
Hartford was the leader in creating innovations in fancy variable annuity riders, such as step-up death benefits and living benefits. They all had one thing in common. If the stock market crashed, you would still get back all your money.
But insurance companies are supposed to fully hedge this risk by buying puts, swaps, etc. on the downside of the market. Hartford still hasn't explained what happened to cause such losses in its huge variable annuity book. They hedged bad? They didn't hedge at all? Until this is known, they should not get TARP.
But when it is known, a lot of their policyholders may leave.
"It's a desperate move, because it sends a message to their customers to GET OUT NOW. No insurance company can survive a run on the vault."
Or is it a desperate move to get cash now while you still can? I bet they are eating that stag for the Christmas party.
How about some R&D so we don't end up building stuff that's obsolete before it's completed? A couple of Manhattan-type projects before all of the engineers retire, as there aren't many new engineers in the pipeline.
In terms of stuff we already do know how to build, how about an Internet infrastructure (including last mile) that's about 100 times faster than what we have today? Or even 20x faster as in Japan, UK, etc.?
sm_landlord | Homepage | 11.14.08 - 4:56 pm | #
I agree 100% with what you've written, and I've commented to that effect in the past. Was too lazy to type it all out again!
Hahahahaha, Bond Girl
"The new definition of a bank is an institution that does not have any money."
--Bond Girl
Best Comment award for this thread
ova: Ponys with Antler
Are you an Armageddonist?
I am currently making jello shots if anyone wants to come over
I am currently making jello shots if anyone wants to come over
Ministry of Truth
You can still afford Jello?
"I am currently making jello shots if anyone wants to come over"
What are jello shots?
It's always cocktail hour somewhere
ova: Ponys with Antler
Are you an Armageddonist?
No, I hope for the best and plan for the worst. Seriously, if I had outlined what happened in the last 2 months a year ago I would have been labeled a fruitcup.
Who's next?
Allstate Banking
Farm Bureau Banking Comp.
State Farm S&L.
The New York Times Banking CO.
The Nola Deli on Burbon St S&L
Mercy Hosp. S&L
Jim's Gargage Banking and Accounting
The Greater MainSt. Nonprofit S&L
The Dog Waggers Blog Assoc. S&L
First.
to become a synthetic bank.
less work, same profit.
"Seriously, if I had outlined what happened in the last 2 months a year ago I would have been labeled a fruitcup."
Not in my circle.
What are jello shots?
mp
Conjure knows. That he declines to share that knowledge with you is most informative.
The Bank of Philadephia Eagles are taking on the JP Morgan Chase Bengels this Sunday, if anyone cares. My favorite team is the Miami S&L Dolphins.
"Conjure knows. That he declines to share that knowledge with you is most informative."
Sorry, but I don't get it.
Slate has an article on how Cheney claims he's not part of the executive branch. Come on Jan 20th.
Dallas Cowboys are broke...look for them to get a free pony, at least they have a cowboy to ride it!
Instead of filing for unemployment, I should file for obtaining S&L status and then I can take cover under the TARP too.
agree with mp....many people laughed at me over the last year as I pointed these things out. I hate to say it but I laugh at them now.
None of this was unforseeable.....NONE OF IT.
Ciao
MS
"a to the b is transcendental"
Plant I never learned "transcendental" in math.
Not imaginary, I take it.
They are big buffett groupies on CNBC. I hope the windows in his office don't open up or he may go splat after all his sour trading moves.
Hartford has not been any kind of "insurance capital" since Citi bought Travelers, circa 1997(?). Ever after, the companies were mostly all about "wealth management" nonsense. Financial sophistry.
We have not humiliated ourselves as a nation; we have humiliated ourselves as various administrations and Congresses (both parties) over the past 28 years have left us bankrupt and bereft of alternatives to become a nation that produces value in rather traditional ways instead of financial products.
We have also humiliated ourselves as we have let torture and the suspension of habeas corpus become standard policy.
So if you correctly, more or less, understood 2 years ago, what is happening now. Then, if you run the timeline out another year. Use the same way of evaluating data, what do you get?
I know what I get.
"Large Hadron Collider Files to Become Bank Holding Company
Scientists at the Large Hadron collider filed papers today requesting status as a bank holding company. 'It's really a matter of professional jealosy,' remarked once scientist who requested anonymity. 'We were supposed to be the ones making black holes. Now those bastards in Washington are making them faster and bigger than we could have ever imagined.'"
My favorite team is the Miami S&L Dolphins.
- Elvis
Aren't they normallt underwater and being attacked for not being Patriot-ic?
mp, you're dating yourself. jello shots are a method of consuming large quantities of clear booze in tasty jello form.
Popular with college students everywhere.
If the FDIC can have a housing policy
I don't see why a city can't have a TARP.
I'm waiting for NASA to insist on a capital injection less the universe
collapse into a gigantic black hole.
1worldcurrencyyogi;
Transcendental number - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
jello-shots:
cubes of jello made with vodka or pure-grain alcohol, etc
MP, man, the depression might be effecting your sense of humor. Or is Conjure just playing games with us by pretending that his imaginary friend MP doesn't know everything that he knows?
"Conjure knows. That he declines to share that knowledge with you is most informative."
Sorry, but I don't get it. - mp/i>
Conjure knows we need you sharp for BFFs and doesn't want you getting smashed on jello cubes made with vodka.
"Popular with college students everywhere.
Gary"
And those you follow the jello diet. Personally, I follow the whatever gets you loaded fast diet. So, I'm strickly a moonshine and malt liquor guy.
Unit472 writes:
"I'm waiting for NASA to insist on a capital injection less the universe
collapse into a gigantic black hole."
That's Paulson's line. NASA will have to come up with a better threat.
"jello shots are a method of consuming large quantities of clear booze in tasty jello form."
How can one drink jello? They eat it, or what?
Having a shuttle launch tonite at NASA.
Nasa's never officially made any money, but I betcha the country as a whole has profitted handsomely from it.
@Bond Girl: "The new definition of a bank is an institution that does not have any money."
... and still wants yours...
I know it's "effecting" mine.
Conjure says, "Moral hazard at its finest."
mp | 11.14.08 - 4:55 pm | #
If my "Moral hazard" you mean out right theft. Yes, I agree.
Conjure asks, "Got toilet paper?"
"You're going to need it."
mp | 11.14.08 - 4:56 pm | #
Is Conjure recomending KMB now?
If this site in French, we would be pondering the term "capital injection"
You cannot create capital out of thin air, so it must be taken from somewhere.
Whose capital are we taking? Where would it have ended up without government borrowing/printing?
Jello is to food groups as Dick Cheney is to branches of government - you don't eat it, you don't drink it, it just goes down your gullet like a waterboarding session until you puke.
January 20 is much too far away.
ews flash
abc.defg news.orgh
taco belle has applied to the federal reserve to become a bank holding company
wants the taxpayer to fund the whole enchilada
I saw a guy on the street with a sign - "Will build missle defense systems for food"
"Is Conjure recomending KMB now?"
If you gotta play, consumer staples is the way.
How can one drink jello? They eat it, or what? - mp
LOL. Didn't you ever play Rugby or date cosmotology school students or rush a frat or attend a Boston Pops concert at Tanglewood?
Jello Shots:
Gelatin dessert - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hey, you people are starting to piss me off. When there's moral hazard there's at least a chance that people won't screw you. Where's the mystery these days? The suspense? Jeeze, it's getting to where it's not fun being a theory anymore.
Indeed lawyerliz, it just makes me want to cry to think what NASA could have achieved with the money we have given AIG.
I think they should change the TARP acronym to FREE MONEY so not to confuse people as to its legitimacy.
@mp "How can one drink jello? They eat it, or what?"
If you can imagine a global depression, then surely you can imagine the endless ways one can consume alcohol in semi-solid gelatinous form?
"you don't eat it, you don't drink it, it just goes down your gullet like a waterboarding session until you puke."
Sounds like a waste of good liquor. Kidstuff.
Down goes Haloscan
Down goes Haloscan!
"wants the taxpayer to fund the whole enchilada
mock turtle"
That is funny. Yo quiero TARP.
MP
it is mostly a waste of bad liquor....
not my taste at all
Sounds like a waste of good liquor. Kidstuff.
then you're using the wrong kind of liquor.
All quiet on the Failed Front (looks like the east coast is ok):
FDIC: Failed Bank List
"Seriously, if I had outlined what happened in the last 2 months a year ago I would have been labeled a fruitcup."
I haven't been on CR long enough to know, but it sounds like most regulars saw this coming a long time ago. I did too - I was convinced we were selling at the top when we sold our home in San Diego in 2000.
But no one really can say they had no warning of what was coming. It became pretty obvious that all was not right when BS's hedge funds blew up. The real confirmation for me was when the big banks abandoned the ARP market in unison in February. That moved underscored how worried they were about their capital positions.
People didn't want to acknowledge it, but there were plenty of signs of what could be coming. Most people I talk to still don't want to hear how much worse it may get.
Haloscan stinks.
"LOL. Didn't you ever play Rugby or date cosmotology school students or rush a frat or attend a Boston Pops concert at Tanglewood?"
No, sorry. I guess I missed out on a lot of "stuff."
Elvis,
When do they make the announcement that all employers will be paying in Disney Dollars until this January?
Ah, epsilon and pals.
All quiet on the Failed Front (looks like the east coast is ok):
I have a funny feeling in my bones. DSL today?
Squeezing a few bucks out of the equities market is a sizeshow. This is where the REAL $$$$ is. From the fargin amazing department.
"According to Markit, which tracks credit default swaps, a type of insurance bond holders buy, General Growth unsecured bond holders currently pay $247,500 to insure $1 million of bonds against default for five years. Just last week, the price was $192,500. In July, it was $7,000, which shows the increasing perception of default risk."
Investors pummel debt-heavy real estate companies
| Reuters
Disney Dollars!
How appropriate. Walt Disney boomed during the last depression and it is likely to be one of the companies that makes it out of this one, along with whatever agro-chemical company makes Jello these days.
"I haven't been on CR long enough to know, but it sounds like most regulars saw this coming a long time ago. I did too - I was convinced we were selling at the top when we sold our home in San Diego in 2000."
I thought 2000 was the top, too. I didn't understand the depths to which Wall Street would go to keep the music playing.
So, here's a question apropos of Bank Failure Fridays.
Why does the FDIC call center open at 4pm (Eastern) on Fridays, when the failure notices aren't posted until after 5 pm (IIRC, been a couple of weeks).
Does this mean you can find out which banks are on the list by calling in at 4:00 and acting like your bank has been hit and you want to know what to do?
Hmm...
Wave a wand and suddenly Hartford is not an insurance company but a bank, it's voodoo,'' said Jim Glickenhaus, who helps manage about $2 billion at Glickenhaus & Co. in New York. Treasury and lawmakersneed to take a deep breath and see what they're doing because they'll be through the TARP in the next 15 minutes.''
Hartford, Lincoln, Genworth Buy Lenders, May Gain U.S. Funds - Bloomberg.com
joe shmoe,
Don't forget spam. Everyone is going to be eating a lot of spam, whether they like it or not.
I have a funny feeling in my bones. DSL today?
Max | Homepage | 11.14.08 - 5:19 pm | #
I was hoping for C!
@bearly - yep, and check out the action in IYR or other REIT ETFs for confirmation on that thought...
New lows
20% swings in a single day...
Wow. This is an ETF with over 20M/share/day average volume...
"you don't eat it, you don't drink it, it just goes down your gullet like a waterboarding session until you puke."
Sounds like a waste of good liquor. Kidstuff.
mp | 11.14.08 - 5:16 pm | #
You dont use "good liquor" to make it, use the stuff that goes for $12 for a 1/2 gallon, and yes it is the ultimate kidstuff drink
C, WFC, JPM, BAC all next year.
"When do they make the announcement that all employers will be paying in Disney Dollars until this January?
weepstah"
I'm not sure. I think the next announcement is "Children born after December 31, 2008, will pay a federal income tax rate at a minimum 45% of gross income until death. And, if they do not create a gross income by the age of 16, if female, we will sell their eggs to the Chinese, and, if male, we will sell one of their kidneys to the Russians."
"How appropriate. Walt Disney boomed during the last depression and it is likely to be one of the companies that makes it out of this one, along with whatever agro-chemical company makes Jello these days.
joe shmoe | 11.14.08 - 5:20 pm | # "
Disney was a boom-and-bust corporation until the opening of Disneyland gave them a steady cashflow. It's not clear to me that the average American family will have $1500 to blow on a week at Disney World.
As for Jello: big food winners in the last Depression included Twinkies - a cheap sweet pastry substitute -- and Campbell's soup. A 10-cent can of Campbell's, diluted somewhat beyond the package specs and bulked up with whatever chopped veggies could be found, was a pretty common hard-times dinner in the early '30s.
Joe Jello is for kids. Fun though.
DSL Before the end of the year for sure...
joe shmoe writes:
Disney Dollars!
Don't laugh. This Dawg has a "Bambi" credit card in his wallet. Were I not insanely happy in my current relationship it would be the ultimate chick magnet. We've "saved" enough Disney Dollars to pay for meals and stays at places we would eat or stay at anyway in addition to cash back and a discount at the parks.
The whole idea of currency ex-US Dollars is appealing on several levels.
I was hoping for C!
Nah, that would have leaked. Love to be a fly on the "town hall" wall on Monday...
How appropriate. Walt Disney boomed during the last depression and it is likely to be one of the companies that makes it out of this one, along with whatever agro-chemical company makes Jello these days.
joe shmoe | 11.14.08 - 5:20 pm | #
That would be Kraft (KFT)
paulson said "we have humiliated ourseves..."
hey HP i never called what was in my pants a bazooka
youre the one who bragged and then whipped out the string bea
That would be Kraft (KFT)
They're not one of the Chicago area firms laying off big in the near future, are they?
Unit472 writes:
C, WFC, JPM, BAC all next year.
I don't think so they are American Brand names of capitalism and have positioned themselves perfectly.
WFC for the West, JPM for the Northwest and Northeast, BAC for the south and C... for the Saudi's
Shit, guys. I was just kidding. Now I have historical earnings reports for Disney, Kraft, and Hormel (SPAM).
When SPAM starts to cater to the organic and vegan markets, then I'll put my money down . . . .
re: Campbell's soup
dude - my crockpot is rarin to go and I'm preparing to fill the freezer with bambi. Dried beans and other legumes can make one hell of a dietary foundation.
LawyerLiz was talking about depression era relatives - this would be my grandparents and my first in-laws. I always knew the OCD traits of squeezing (and ultimately cutting open) the very last bit of toothpaste from the tube they drilled into me would prove beneficial. Of course, it drove my exes crazy.
hey HP i never called what was in my pants a bazooka
you're the one who bragged and then whipped out the string bean
HAHAHAHAHAH!
Love the bazooka in the pants. Someone find the video where he talks about it...
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Realogy Corp. bonds tumbled after the owner of the Century 21 and Coldwell Banker brands said it's at risk of violating the terms of its bank loans and is offering to exchange about $1.1 billion of bonds at a discount for new debt.
Leon Black's buyout firm Apollo Management LP, which bought Realogy for $6.6 billion in April 2007, is trying to reduce debt by almost $600 million and stave off default at the Parsippany, New Jersey-based real-estate broker, according to a regulatory filing dated yesterday. Realogy's $1.7 billion of 10.5 percent notes due in 2014 fell 6.5 cents to 26.5 cents on the dollar, yielding 52 percent, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
Standard & Poor's slashed Realogy's corporate credit rating to two grades to CC from CCC.
``Given our previously stated view that Realogy's ability to service its current capital structure over the intermediate term will be challenged, we view the exchanges as being tantamount to default,'' Emile Courtney, an analyst at S&P, said in a report today.
Realogy Bonds Tumble on Debt Exchange Offer to Avoid Default - Bloomberg.com
My alma mater has lost about 20% of its endowment in the last 3 months.
(And I'm thinking it's got to be much worse than they're letting on publicly.)
No raises for any staff making over $75K. Complete staff hiring freeze. And now talk of "job consolidation."
When you have higher ed reacting this way to an "economic downturn" something is very very bad out there.
And this is a good sized school. The smaller schools must be getting slaughtered.
Shhhhhhh don't tell Eric that.
Nope, I'm giving up that fight.
Every time I post statistics, the goalposts get moved. That dog won't hunt.
Realogy is a zero. Who here didn't see that six months ago? Aleister, thanks for the obituary.
CR: There's a rather substantial barter exchange called ITEX. There are probably others, this one I'm familiar with. When I was living in Bellingham, WA they were very active. The group that controlled the local market were based out of Seattle.
Perhaps, a thoughtful pieec on bartering would stimulate a thoughtful exchange here.
Thanks, whatever you or Tanta might be able to conjure, or perhaps a guest poster?
Fidelity Will Eliminate 1,700 More Jobs in Early 2009
Can I be a bank too?
Problem with bartering is that not too
many Americans have anything to barter
with.
Will trade real estate appraisal for root canal? Need transmission repaired
in exchange for $2,000,000 in MBS.
The whole country is insolvent. Wonderful. Can't wait till we can't pay the police force and the army. Time to start a militia and plant some crops.
unit472,
A liver for a refill of the gas tank.
Time to start a militia and plant some crops.
Yes, In that order...
Gary writes
If we can piss away our national fisc on Iraq and TARP, surely we can take $500B - $1T and use it to rebuild our country.
Gary | 11.14.08 - 4:50 pm | #
Are you kidding? $500B won't even get us past the environmentalists lawyers.
I asked the question yesterday with no responses:
What (type of ) companies WILL NOT qualify for a bailout?
Thanks in advance.
Yours In Socialsim,
Kilgore Trout
Gary
2 Trillion is the expected amount of money needed to rebuild nations infrastructure
they will all qualify
heres why
Bailout Lacks Oversight Despite Billions Pledged
Watchdog Panel Is Empty; Report Is Unfinished
n the six weeks since lawmakers approved the Treasury's massive bailout of financial firms, the government has poured money into the country's largest banks, recruited smaller banks into the program and repeatedly widened its scope to cover yet other types of businesses, from insurers to consumer lenders.
Along the way, the Bush administration has committed $290 billion of the $700 billion rescue package.
Yet for all this activity, no formal action has been taken to fill the independent oversight posts established by Congress when it approved the bailout to prevent corruption and government waste. Nor has the first monitoring report required by lawmakers been completed, though the initial deadline has passed.
"It's a mess," said Eric M. Thorson, the Treasury Department's inspector general, who has been working to oversee the bailout program until the newly created position of special inspector general is filled. "I don't think anyone understands right now how we're going to do proper oversight of this thing."
Bailout Lacks Oversight Despite Billions Pledged
Comrade Kilgore Trout said: "I asked the question yesterday with no responses:
What (type of ) companies WILL NOT qualify for a bailout?"
You've not gotten a response yet because we're still trying to find which ones won't qualify.
You are all such pessimists. You are forgetting the American ace in the hole. The US military can always be used to take over resource-rich countries and sell off their resources to pay for the reconstruction of the US economy.
If they become a bank do they lose their special tax privileges they have as an insurance company? or do they get to keep those privileges?
eric-
the goalpost didn't get moved. Go back and read what my response was to your original reply. It clearly stated the week before AND the week of.
Your data only showed the week of.
Ciao
MS
ITEX Payment Systems - a small business community and barter network
Some are perhaps being obtuse for effect. Markets will evolve.
I am NOT a fan of ITEX, there are, I am sure others and some here may well have experience with bartering locally. I know I do.
There's a certain skill set that needs be developed to be effective. i.e. how to do a three way exchange (can't wait to hear the yowls from this one). Then there's the bank that naturally develops. And other things like that there.
But if it's going to get as rough as I and some here believe, these will be worthwhile discussions for the uninitiated.
Oh, and just let somebody try to demand any kind of payments on outstanding debt.
Why are foreigners buying our debt? Are they insane or just stupid?
Can the Treasury sign up for TARP funds? We could have a cool perpetual motion machine. Ponzi-tastic.
I think we should collectively come up with an economic/financial manifesto outlining a strategy to address this situation. Spend some time knocking around ideas, the consequences, etc. Write it up, and send it to Krugman or someone who might be able to get it published. Just a completely anonymous but well thought out strategy.
It would beat medicating our ulcers with jello shots.
rich writes:
Hartford is rated (as an insurance company) by four agencies, Best, Fitch, Moody's and S&P. All the ratings are still fairly high, according to company Web site.
These the same companies that were rating mortgages. Need I say more?
Tim & the Xmas Miracle(Unrated) writes:
Gary
2 Trillion is the expected amount of money needed to rebuild nations infrastructure
That was from the civil engineers I recall (the $1.6tn estimate) and as such would include roads, highways, overpasses, bridges, waterworks but not the electric grid which since being privatized in the ?80s is in rough shape today
While upgrades to the electric grid are necessary, especially if embarking on a green jobs/distributed energy generation/green energy strategy, it is not perfect stimulus. Largest wind turbines are made overseas, transformers are coming from Brazil, etc
Bond Girl, the jello shots are more productive.
Why are foreigners buying our debt? Are they insane or just stupid?
Ponyless in NJ
They aren't check the results of the 30 year auction this week.
Actually Ponyless, we don't even have to take them over. Just threaten too.
Two weeks to Baghdad concentrates the mind of any foreign government. As does the spectre of being Saddamized.
I'm going to get fussy if I don't get my Friday bank failure!
Give Paulson money, give Paulson power. I'm amazed the 'smart' politicians in Congress did such a stupid, stupid thing.
Unit472, true. Saddamization is the stick. No carrots required.
Love to be a fly on the "town hall" wall on Monday...
Max
Will anybody show up?
giggle. yeah, threaten them with shock and awe. how's that been going guys?
The government is quickly turning this from a problem WITHIN the system to a problem that THREATENS the system itself.
The government needs to amputate AIG and Freddie and Fannie just as quickly as possible. And stop injecting capital by the hundreds of trillions of dollars.
If I were the president, I would announce that businesses that made bad decisions will be allowed to go into re-organization and bankruptcy. I would assure everyone that this is a normal and fair process that has been honed over two hundred years. I would further beg all persons who had ever worked for the bankruptcy court system to please come back and help serve their country once again. I would then announce extensions to unemployment compensation and temporary aid to needy families.
Then we'd let the system work itself out naturally and without faulty government intervention which is mis-allocating capital in a major way.
The bailout legislation frightened even prudent and well-capitalized consumers and businesses and actually caused the problem to be worse.
anonymous, every country in the middle east was scared shitless. its the whole occupation thing that went less than perfectly.
Bond Girl, EHP,
It seems that all roads lead to massive infrastructure investment. Anyone read anywhere about any government department writing up a plan for this?
Reading some of these comments, I can't imagine why Iran would want to build their own nukes. Nope - completely unnecessary.
Planet Money Blog : NPR
Finance professor, John Cochrane, says he doesn't understand what all the fuss is about. The banks are just fine.
Well, they are now. Just the rest of us ain't...oh but he wants us to take the risks again.
I know someone who works at a government agency that received an email from Pelosi suggesting they get projects ready for some stimulus package. But reading the newspaper, it seems that will be postponed.
Bond Girl -
How about simply principles for a solution?
Principle #1: One cannot solve a debt crisis by issuing more debt.
Principle #2: We must stop converting private debts into public debts, because we cannot put the national government and economy at risk of either a debt-default or a hyperinflation.
Principle #3: To restore confidence, any further changes to the financial and economic system must be made gradually and after due debate and discussion. Except for those changes which involve actually enforcing existing laws, rules and regulations.
Ponyless in NJ writes:
You are all such pessimists. You are forgetting the American ace in the hole. The US military can always be used to take over resource-rich countries and sell off their resources to pay for the reconstruction of the US economy. at 541 above
we tried that
it was called Iraq
but alas the sunni, shia, and kurds are having second thoughts about signing over
all your oil wells are not belong to us
"businesses that made bad decisions will be allowed to go into re-organization and bankruptcy...
Then we'd let the system work itself out naturally"
$1.4 Quadrillion in derivatives would make that "natural work-out" into the mother of all nightmares. It cannot be allowed, hence:
The stage is set, the players have their roles, and the tragedy continues.
Does anyone know of a good soup kitchen?
(We had all our money in Sebastian Hedge Fund, LLC)
In addition, Hartford's general account investment reflects a fairly illiquid portfolio, which could aggravate problem for the insurer in case it sees a repeat of the 3Q2008 losses in the next the quarter. As at the end of September 2008, out of the total general account investments portfolio of $89.8 bn, $77.2 bn were investments in securities and $12.6 bn were investments in policy loans, mortgage loans and other undisclosed investments, all of which are highly illiquid. Out of $77.2 bn investment in securities, 22.5% and 75.2% are in the illiquid level 3 and level 2 assets, respectively. Amid rising redemption pressure off fears of a decline in investment value, the company is likely to face liquidity crunch as the value of investments plunge while losses continue to mount. In addition, the scheduled payment of a debt installment of $530 million in 4Q2008 is likely to add to the insurer's current problems, given the constrained liquidity situation in global capital markets.
Reggie Middleton says... | Reggie Middleton's Forensic Evaluation of the Hartford Insurance Group | Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog | Hartford Insurance Group, HIG, Valuation, Solvency , analysis
When does GMAC get Tarp Money?
Ponyless in NJ,
One of the commenters here, I will let them identify themselves if they choose, heard of Pelosi instructing local governments to prepare proposals for infrastructure spending ASAP. Plan on the order of $150bn? I think
Have seen similar comments echoed by analysts on Wall St for a plan ready for the Jan 20 inauguration.
Because of the timeline, it will just be going to projects that were previously planned. Although that does free up their budgets which has a positive impact as well. The spending may be nice, but it's relatively small
@MS
"agree with mp....many people laughed at me over the last year as I pointed these things out. I hate to say it but I laugh at them now.
None of this was unforseeable.....NONE OF IT."
There are plenty of us who saw this coming. But who knew when. I thought houses going for 5x earnings was insane, but they eventually made it to 8x in Florida and 11x in California. Who knew when it would finally go bust. My short positions were eating away at me for quite some time, and only in the past 3 months went green, overall. I was beginning to worry they would be able to keep the music going for another 5 years.
Too many, too stupid for too long.
Of course now, the silliness is thinking it is even halfway done. TARP is doing a wonderful job of slowing the retraction and extending the pain, but there is no way we are done until housing gets to 2.5 - 3x earnings. My bet is that we over correct.
I think it should definitely start with principles (a preamble, if you will), but it should get very concrete. I think we can honestly do this - we have lots of people with diverse talents who see different aspects of the crisis and we can figure something out.
Seriously, this might be the beginning of a decade of hell. If we have something to contribute, we should.
Will anybody show up?
If the CEO survives the weekend.
Will a C failure hurt Rubin's chances at Treasury?
@Tim & the Xmas Miracle
"When does GMAC get Tarp Money"
That TARP is getting spread kind of thin, no? Wait 'til they find out it is already spent.
Anonymous, of course that is why they want nukes. and that is why they need to be prevented from getting them. if they got nukes we couldn't invade them anymore so we must invade them before they got nukes or we'll lose our chance..
I work with 5 rabid republicans, all 2nd generation gov't workers, all with solid wages, benefits, pension plans, etc. They can't get through a day without bitching about how their victims of big gov't/high taxes/unions.
What do we start calling these people - the self-hating middle class?
Blackhalo
Auto loans are outperforming home loans. Why not?
Let's all get together and request that the Cubs become a bank - then they could pick up some players that don't wrestle each other in the dugout
12many dopes writes:
Let's all get together and request that the Cubs become a bank - then they could pick up some players that don't wrestle each other in the dugout
Out of left field...
Hartford insures me, my wife and our cars. AIG insures the Cessna. Am I insured?????
Infrastructure 'investment' did not work in Japan or 1930's America as nice as Hoover Dam and that mighty Japanese bridge might be.
From my POV there is no solution save
to allow asset prices sink to the level that makes them attractive investments again. Well there is another World War. Worked wonders last
time for the US but as a policy proposal it would have to be 'sub rosa
EHP,
Unless thats $150B/year for the next 20 years it isn't going to do much...
Then again, invested properly, even small amounts can have major positive long-term consequences...
Any clue which projects have already been planned?
Another hour and no BFF...I am going to get drunk at 4:40 pst...I need a reason to drink!
FDIC: Failed Bank List
Any clue which projects have already been planned?
The one to seize your assets!
Bond Girl:
Good for you to attempt to be constructive. There's a lot of information and intelligence here, in between the snark and noise.
I noticed one thing about the letter that those many economists got in front of congress: They all agreed that the original Paulson Plan was bad. But they did not (could not?) put forward a consensus for a solution.
If those well-mannered academics couldn't come to an agreement, I think you're going to have a heck of a time building consensus in this free-form of a forum. I don't want that to dissuade you from trying, just don't be mad if it doesn't work out.
I would suggest finding a password protected wiki, and starting a document there. Then, invite those you feel could contribute to it, and let people have a crack at it incrementally. Let people in a few at a time. See what comes out of it.
It could be amazing stone soup, or it could degenerate into hysterical bickering.
DOH! I've been wondering for days -- weeks? -- how the big banks could have been forced to crawl under the TARP ... Their circumstances forced them.
You cannot create capital out of thin air, so it must be taken from somewhere.
~~~
What do you think banks do ?
possibly, but you go to your next war with the army you have, not the army you once had. (and it's broke too. and on the international stage at that. no fault of the boots on the ground.)
@All Fall Down
"Am I insured?????"
Yes, until you make a claim.
Volker:
We're now officially tuned into one another's brain waves.
I was looking at a few barter exchanges on line this AM. I'm thinking that now would be the time to start laying the groundwork for a neighborhood/town thing and see where it goes.
oblamov writes:
It's always cocktail hour somewhere
Are you related to Обломов, the character in the Russian novel by Goncharov? Oblomovists, like their namesake, are unable even to get up in the morning, much less get anything done.
@StewPDX
"I would suggest finding a password protected wiki, and starting a document there. Then, invite those you feel could contribute to it, and let people have a crack at it incrementally. Let people in a few at a time. See what comes out of it."
Stellar recommendation.
All Fall Down writes:
"Hartford insures me, my wife and our cars. AIG insures the Cessna. Am I insured?????"
Insured, yes. The question would be: Can you collect if need be?
I expect that the desirable policies would be sold off to other insurers if these entities go down, but I don't have any historical references at hand.
You could move your policies, I suppose.
re: Manifesto
I hate to stifle constructive thought, but I see 2 problems to start with.
It presumes:
There is a solution that is feasible (affordable costs in terms of money and politics/power)
The solution can be discussed in public officially
The solutions I can think of have both short term and long term risks. However I think there is enough commonality in successful solutions to provide a framework.
Ponyless in NJ,
I don't have a list of projects going ahead, but I can generally tell you it would be things like major maintenance, bridges/overpasses, transit
Projects -
A large prison to house Paulson and all the Glodman scum
Anonymous, stick to what you know.
In 1941 we didn't have an army to speak of. Today we have ( along with the Brits) the only combat experienced officer and NCO corp in the world.
We are the Germans of 1940.
For the record, here's my I'm-not-an-economist recipe for possible US recovery:
Feel free to rip that apart as idealistic and naive. I'm probably both.
"## They aren't check the results of the 30 year auction this week."
Perhaps that's what Sec. Paulson was referring to.
Capital injection ?
Medicare for All .... To get real money immediately into the economy we need Medicare for All. Medicare for All would help re-capitalize business (especially manufacturing), school districts, state and local government, individual payers and the under and uninsured. The states could use any excess of savings for unemployment and pension funds. Overall this could save hundreds of thousands if not millions of jobs while putting money quickly and directly into the system in the most efficient, fairest way possible ... taking care of people's medical bills.
BondGirl -
"Seriously, this might be the beginning of a decade of hell. If we have something to contribute, we should."
Exactly. It was the failure of the wise to restrain the foolish that got us all into this crisis in the first place. And the longer we wait to dig out, the worse it will get.
I would point out that each of the three principles I suggested implies some very clear immediate actions...
1) Suspend the TARP and other bailouts, or at least avoid throwing any more money down that drain. The taxpayers' Congress should spend the $350B at all since the first $350B was grossly mis-spent.
2) Return to pay-as-you-go federal spending with duly-deliberated appropriations bills.
3) Get the regulatory agencies back to regulating, and staff up the fraud units in particular. Plenty of fraudulently-obtained money can be returned to the nation in the form of legal judgments!
But as I said near the start of an earlier thread, it's a long time to January 20, and as someone commented there -- the regime change may simply put a different batch of looters in charge.
Wisdom Seeker,
Now is probably not the best time to try to balance the budget...
2 Trillion is the expected amount of money needed to rebuild nations infrastructure
Tim & the Xmas Miracle | 11.14.08 - 5:39 pm | #
I'll gladly take the whole $2T in installments over 2-4 years.
bearly, if you want to double down on your election bet I'm willing to lay odds on a $500 billion + infrastructure package passing before the end of February.
"From my POV there is no solution save
to allow asset prices sink to the level that makes them attractive investments again. Well there is another World War. Worked wonders last
time for the US but as a policy proposal it would have to be 'sub rosa'
Unit472 | 11.14.08 - 6:03 pm | # "
Have to be with nukes or mercenaries. The middle class isn't letting go of its preciously nurtured Justins and Taras to go off and die in some -- war. That's for the poor people.
Who may have smartened up by now.
I would add freeze the bank accounts and other assets of main executives who worked for companies that contributed to the mess.
Hahaha. Re-industrialization any one?
Unit 472 re we're the 1940 Germans.
Gee thanks, I needed that.
@Bond Girl
re: Manifesto
Items that improve economic efficiencies and have a long term payoff.
Electrified highways. Transport becomes way more efficient if you only have to push a car/truck + motor, instead of car/truck + engine + fuel.
Side benefit: robust electrical grid.
Double benefit: Wind farms/alternative energy can be set-up anywhere there is a electrified highway which also provides the access for installation/setup.
Ancillary Benefit: Electric cars would give GM/Ford/sensible start-up a new business.
Sweet revenge: The oil companies/car co.s who bought-up and dismantled turn of the century public transportation, take it on the chin.
It is a win/win/wi
homedad
This guy's put some thought into it.
Survival & Self-Reliance Studies Institute Home Page
We are the Germans of 1940.
Unit472 | 11.14.08 - 6:12 pm | #
Under John McCain, we would have been the Germans of 1941-1945 as well.
(crosses self, thanks god)
It is a win/win/win
Don't forget the rocket boots.
"Electrified highways. Transport becomes way more efficient if you only have to push a car/truck + motor, instead of car/truck + engine + fuel."
On a highway, most of the energy is spent overcoming wind resistance.
Might work in town where you're mostly accelerating or decelerating.
Bob Dobbs, in all honesty do you think a mother's love for her child has increased since WW2? That a father was indifferent to the fate of his son in battle?
Don't want to make too big a point about it but today's children are just that compared to the boys who had to grow up in a big hurry in past
generations.
Senate Democratic leader Reid calls Bush request for new auto industry aid "unacceptable", says Treasury Dept. should use existing authority to help automakers which would not require congressional actio
If a password-protected wiki is the need, and the community is interested, I should be able to have one online within the next 9 hours.
I have a password-protected discussion forum started already, but haven't given out the password just yet. See URL (newly added).
Come on, you guys. You're still thinking instance-by-instance, point-to-point. That's not how you build something complex.
There's a certain foundational structure with assumptions that we can't prove but must exist (just like the air we can't see).
If the Rebuild is approached on a point-to-point basis, it most likely results in a fractured United States.
Ergo, to avoid that outcome there must be a certain set of common ideology which is central to all things and it must have a certain mass and power.
Schramm.
Read Schramm, it's the foundation of communication. There has to be a certain level of shared context to build a unified structure.
Blackhalo,
Does it make sense to spend on alternative energy if the price of oil/gas is cheap? Isn't that somewhat inefficient?
As for electric cars produced by GM/Ford.. Are we considering tariffs? Other impediments to free trade? Do we force the renegotiation of union labor contracts?
Are we talking about reindustrialization through import substitution?
I was looking at a few barter exchanges on line this AM. I'm thinking that now would be the time to start laying the groundwork for a neighborhood/town thing and see where it goes.
homedad43 | Homepage | 11.14.08 - 6:07 pm
Unfortunately, we're wasting our time and energy on the morons here. But, if somehow, we can stay in touch as to progress via this board, I'd appreciate.
Back to lurking.
Blackhalo,
You could not reasonably have 'electrified highways'. To support the maximum potential density on the highway, you would need many substations. Every 1000ft at best.
Would be extremely expensive to build, operate, and maintain simply because the highway network is so vast.
That's the benefit of roads, you can lay them down at low cost quickly.
The way to accomplish what you're thinking of is a highway network that is like a rail network your personal vehicle can get on to/off of, and have the network take control of the vehicle for the duration.
Money would still be better spent developing traditional inter and intra urban rail.
Can wind or solar deliver a watt of power for less than coal?
If not you are setting up the USA for the biggest boondoogle in our history.
May has well have subsidized the farrier industry in 1900 as tie the US to a technology that is less competitive than what the rest of the world will be using.
And using it they will. Even the EU has far more coal plants on the drawing board than does the US. They Euros talks a good game and ratify treeaties they will weasel out of but, then they have no Euro Supreme Court to enforce their big words and mighty plans. Where the rubber meets
the road, literally, Angela Merkel will demur from carbon emissions as will Sarkozy and any other European politician who wants to stay in power!
It is something to think about at least. I purposefully used the word strategy instead of solution. I do not think there is a solution or anything that is going to make this all go away. But I think there are a hell of a lot better ways to achieve a softer landing than what we are doing right now. I'm going to try to turn my mind away from picking apart our "leaders" and the crap they come up with and try to start thinking of better ways to go about dealing with this situation. I think we can come up with a consensus response and will check into the wiki thing.
I'm out for a while. Have a good evening folks.
"Does it make sense to spend on alternative energy if the price of oil/gas is cheap? Isn't that somewhat inefficient?"
Oil and gas are finite resources. Their cost will only go up over time. Prices will fluctuate but over time they will only go up. Wind/Solar/Nuclear are relatively infinite. At some point/threshold, alternative energy will become the economical choice. My argument is that if my tax dollars are to be spent, I would prefer them be spent anticipating the inevitable rather that trying to postpone it.
@Ponyless in NJ:
"Now is probably not the best time to try to balance the budget..."
Strictly speaking, I wasn't advocating balancing the budget. Just that new spending should be balanced by new revenue rather than more TARP-like handouts.
See also Principle #1... you can't borrow your way out of a national debt crisis.
I am of the opinion that a Keynesian stimulus is not the right solution this time around, because the total national debt burden at 350% of GDP is too high already. (It is a factor of 3? higher than it was in 1929-1931.)
I would be overwhelmingly in favor of redirecting existing spending into more productive "investment"-type uses. For instance, we spend billions through NIH producing scientific discoveries, but there's no easy channel for converting discoveries into cures. That should be fixed, and it doesn't need new money.
There are many other ways in which we squander government money, both present and future. For example, Public-sector pensions are overdue to be trimmed.
We have the system we have because it satisfied the previous political balance. With a new balance comes the opportunity to engineer some changes to the system. We must choose wisely...
What investments are large enough that it only makes sense for the USG to invest in but that have continuous benefits by lowering the longer-term cost of doing business in this country?
Wisdom Seeker, typed before I read your post. Will discuss later as I have to go.
Senate Democratic leader Reid calls Bush request for new auto industry aid "unacceptable", says Treasury Dept. should use existing authority to help automakers which would not require congressional action
This is the "pass the buck" crap that got us the USA-PATRIOT Act and the AUMF. When TARP was passed, it was contemplated only for banks and bank holding companies, and that's the way BushCo reads it. Probably doesn't hurt that Michigan the UAW bleed blue, but life sucks.
If Congress wants to expand TARP to include auto companies, put it to a vote.
All right, crispy, man the deathwatch for a bit. I'm sick of the office.
"We are the Germans of 1940."
I'm not going there.
Unit472 writes:
In 1941 we didn't have an army to speak of. Today we have ( along with the Brits) the only combat experienced officer and NCO corp in the world.
We are the Germans of 1940.
Unit472 | 11.14.08 - 6:12 pm
Apparently there are still some people here that don't see a bad thing when they post it online.
To become the "Germans of 1940", we need the Weimar Lovin' and a single political party with a charasmatic leader. See why some of us are cringing?
Speaking of the most bang for the buck, nothing beats Cisco Red.
Anon 6:32 was me.
Max writes:
All right, crispy, man the deathwatch for a bit. I'm sick of the office.
Max | Homepage | 11.14.08 - 6:32 pm | #
I will be here until 4:40...I got you covered
Wind/Solar/Nuclear are relatively infinite.
Uranium isn't a finite resource?
Unless you're taking fusion and not fission.
"Money would still be better spent developing traditional inter and intra urban rail."
Yeah rail is better. Electric rail even better than that.
Feel like doing something instead of griping?
Plum Book: 2008 Edition
We've crossed into outright insanity on this TARP thing. And it's not helping the people who need help one bit.
anonymous writes:
And this is a good sized school. The smaller schools must be getting slaughtered.
anonymous | 11.14.08 - 5:30 pm
I know of one small/mid-sized university in TN that falls into that "getting slaughtered" category.
If they hadn't gotten emergency funding from some local cash bags, they would've already had to close up shop this semester.
The story about 'em is good, but it is still unfolding...
What investments are large enough that it only makes sense for the USG to invest in but that have continuous benefits by lowering the longer-term cost of doing business in this country?
~~~
Medicare for All ...
"Uranium isn't a finite resource?"
Hydrogen is a fairly common resource.
Rail is degrading compared to the personal auto and I travel by rail but, with the proviso, I have my own compartment.
The private car is the poor man's equivalent of the private jet. No sane
person is going to give up the privacy
comfort and choice of travelling companion for the Hobson's choice of public transit unless they have to.
Public transit is for loser's. It only works for peak commute hours because there is no alternative that is affordable and because, you are travelling with similiar people. Get on a downtown bus or train at 7:30 PM
Monday morning is one thing. Get on that same conveyance at 11:00 PM at night a whole different experience beyond having a seat.
I want to know what will be the first municipality to take a chance on this.
Plus nuclear waste can be recycled making it much more fuel efficient. France does this and produces much less nuclear waste than the US, who does not recycle used fuel.
Wisdom Seeker, I think we differ fundamentally on this issue...
I can't see any entity but the government being willing to invest/spend in the economy with the kind of hard landing that we are in for.
Any cuts by the government in any programs or increases in taxation only make the landing even harder. Even 'squandered' money is circulating through the economy. Reallocating the 'squandered' money could be highly socially disruptive and make it a difficult approach to use given our current political system.
Medicare for All ...
mmckinl | 11.14.08 - 6:36 pm | # [kill][hide comment]
Are you kidding? You won't have many to provide care.
With reprocessing, there is enough uranium to outlast the coal. Ask the French or Japanese about that, since they've both been sensible in this arena.
Unfortunately the world has decided to pursue fusion by means of an international multi-decade boondoggle (ITER), which means no government-driven fusion energy solution within the next 2 decades at minimum. "Fusion is 20 years away, and always will be..."
Going home, but will check this thread to see if there is a wiki set up. Very interested in participating in this thought experiment.
Hydrogen is a fairly common resource.
Energy required to extract hydrogen from water or natural gas is not infinite.
What investments are large enough that it only makes sense for the USG to invest in but that have continuous benefits by lowering the longer-term cost of doing business in this country?
Capital intensive energy investments- eg nuclear plants, fusion energy, tar-sand separation, coal gasification, solar arrays, tidal generators, wind turbines
Any type of food/agricultural efficiencies.
Hydrogen is a fairly common resource.
We're decades (centuries?) away from nuclear fusion. If we're really going to run out of cheap oil, we'll run out of it long before we can fuse helium nuclei and harness the energy into a usable form.
Gary, In case you didn't catch this from last week:
Payment Details
Item Price: $50.00 USD
Total: $50.00 USD
Order Description: Calculated Risk Blog Tip
Receipt Number: 4638-5000-2882-XXXX
Rail is degrading compared to the personal auto
unit472
Better get used to it, you selfish d-bag. The current situation is untenable.
Unit472--have you ever traveled by train in Europe. I love it.
Are you kidding? You won't have many to provide care.
~~~~
All the other G& nations provide single payer , for about half they insure everyone ...
I know this was posted earlier, but it's so good, I had to put it up again:
Cummings: You're on TV. Youre the man. I don't know how much we're paying you, but you're our employee...
Issa: Y'know, we could go ring around the rosie here, but you are here because Congress feels you played a bait and switch game...
Kashkari: I dont think it's a good use of taxpayer money to put taxpayer capital into an institution that's going to fail-
Kucinich: Boy y'know, that statement you just made, you will hear about for the rest of your career.
Cummings: Is Kashkari a chump? Not sure what else I could possibly add.
Blackhalo,
I still like your open minded ambition. If the funding for such a project could get beyond a business proposal stage, it would attract a lot of smart minds and be a lot of fun to work on
I'm optimistic about the transportation innovations to come. I have some ideas that are feasible today, if but for the initial capital cost to get them off the ground. It's best to focus on dense urban areas for business feasibility/success. However some things like cars that communicate with each other, or even handle all the driving, could spill over to highway driving (more coordination = less braking, shorter travel times) -- the primary problem with that is people would feel safer in an accident caused by a human than a robot
PSgirl beat me to it. Love the rail system in England when I've been there on business travel. Call me insane.
All the other G& nations provide single payer , for about half they insure everyone ...
The other G7 nations don't have the same hangups about death that we do.
Another consideration for those wondering about the Treasury financing the deficit. No more borrowing from the Medicare HI Trust fund because it was exhausted early this year.
SS trust fund will be next. 2017? I think, but that projection was HIGHLY optimistic.
"Energy required to extract hydrogen from water or natural gas is not infinite."
My math my be off but is suspect there is enough energy in 5 gallons of water to extract all of the hydrogen in the Great Lakes.
Fusion, baby. However we have not figured out how to do that, (yet). Throw a couple billion of TARP at it and who knows? Big oil, coal and nat gas are not big fans.
What investments are large enough that it only makes sense for the USG to invest in but that have continuous benefits by lowering the longer-term cost of doing business in this country?
Ponyless in NJ
Fusion - the Z machine at Sandia could be producing production levels of clean unlimited electricity in under 20 years, with funding that is.
There won't be fusion for a long time, unless governments decide to stop making so much information 'a matter of national security'. It impedes innovators, and scares off others from entering such a bureaucratic hopeless field
I like rail, but we have to be realistic. Urban area mass transit, great. Regional, maybe. But long distance interstate? No way. Distances and travel times are too long to be practical in the US, even with bullet trains.
Basel Too
that's no answer ...
Healthcare costs are killing American business. We need a national plan like Medicare or we fall further behind in our competitiveness.
bearly, good on you. I've been trying to needle you on this since the election but hadn't been able to find you online when I had time to lurk.
Receipt Number: 0676-0623-5102-XXXX
$50 to the jar from me, for good measure.
"Unit472 writes:
Bob Dobbs, in all honesty do you think a mother's love for her child has increased since WW2? That a father was indifferent to the fate of his son in battle?"
No -- but social segmentation has. Back in the '40s everybody served -- from the bottom of the society to the top. More recently, the middle- and upper-middle classes don't send their kids to war. How many congressmen have children who ever served? How many congressmen under 60 ever served?
On top of that -- a lot of families now have only one child. Not to be too harsh, but in a family of three or four, losing one child to war is not the end of the family. But if you have only one child -- it is.
Lincoln National, Genworth Financial Will Buy Insured Lenders
By Andrew Frye
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Lincoln National Corp. and Genworth Financial Inc. plan to buy savings and loan companies, a move that may make the insurers eligible for the Treasury's $700 billion bailout program.
The purchase plans were disclosed by Office of Thrift Supervision spokesman Bill Ruberry in a telephone interview today. He declined to say whether Philadelphia-based Lincoln and Richmond, Virginia-based Genworth applied for aid from the U.S.
No Hiker not insane---I would take the train everywhere if we had a similar system in this country. It is fabulous. Very carefree.
I love to bring a bottle of wine, cheese and bread and watch the countryside go by. Actually, in Italy, the dining cars have amazing food.
Brings back great memories.
@Ponyless -
You're saying you're just peachy-keen happy, just fine, no problems ... with the way the federal spending and taxation policies have been arranged over the past 8 years?
You're right, we do have a fundamental disagreement. I think there's a lot that could be done without net new spending of money that doesn't exist except in a Congressperson's imagination.
But you did say:
"I can't see any entity but the government being willing to invest/spend in the economy with the kind of hard landing that we are in for."
Not much disagreement on that.
"Any cuts by the government in any programs or increases in taxation only make the landing even harder. Even 'squandered' money is circulating through the economy."
Not when the national wealth has been handed over to multimillionaires who aren't spending it. We could immediately improve the economy by increasing the velocity of money: take it from the accounts of the fraudsters who failed to handle it wisely, and give it to those who are in need of employment. All we need for this is some honest law enforcement; no new taxes required.
"Reallocating the 'squandered' money could be highly socially disruptive and make it a difficult approach to use given our current political system."
The new political consensus already favors a reallocation of Federal resources compared to the previous political consensus. I don't think Obama-Pelosi-Reid are going to find a "difficult approach" here. Our role should be to guide them so we don't squander even more than we already have.
Can I haz a S&L company too?
@mmckinl
Healthcare costs are killing American business. We need a national plan like Medicare or we fall further behind in our competitiveness.
Nationalized heath care make American workers competitive globally, if the corporations who hire and fire do not have to pay for it. It is subsidized labor an long overdue.
If implemented sensibly, backsourcing would take off.
"2 Trillion is the expected amount of money needed to rebuild nations infrastructure"
Sure in today's dollars not factoring in inevitable cost overruns. Figure 8X that amt.
Healthcare costs are killing American business. We need a national plan like Medicare or we fall further behind in our competitiveness.
BC/BS did a study once that showed that America spent about 80% of its health care at the beginning and ends of life; people would be surprised to find out how much is spent on preemies or that cancer drugs can cost $20K/month. Which is ironic, because once they're healthy the government couldn't give a crap...
Ponyless in NJ writes:
"What investments are large enough that it only makes sense for the USG to invest in but that have continuous benefits by lowering the longer-term cost of doing business in this country?"
Nuclear plants. Only the government can make them happen, due to nimbyism.
And there's plenty of Uranium if we use it wisely. Google "Breeder Reactor" or see Breeder reactor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Breeder reactors can produce new fuel as they burn the old fuel. The technology has been known since the 1950s, but has not been fully implemented due to fears of diversion of the fuel to weapons purposes.
The rail system works in the UK to the extent it does ( and I challenge you to talk to talk with British commuters rather than US tourists to see how well it does) because, like NYC, London is special.
Private cars are for the rich in central London because of congestion fees, high fuel prices and limited parking. Same as Manhattan.
You can get a person making $100,000 per year onto a train under such conditions but you can't get that same
person to give up their car if they live in lesser towns and burgs.
I used to take the ferry from Sausalito into San Francisco. Very nice way to commute. All subsidized by the people backed up paying their tolls on the Golden Gate bridge. It only worked though if you were going to downtown San Francisco. If you had to get on a Muni bus and travel out to the the Sunset district it was didn't.