Quote of the Day: Home Improvement
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 11/14/2008 - 5:57pm (338 comments)
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Mortgage pig is rad.
A pig told me to come here.
This can't be. Cramer said Home Depot was a buy.
It's the pigs fault.
Sweeeeet.
Armageddon, great, we have been waiting for that, right?
So much for the DIY home improvement sector.
Which will get them first, frozen CP for stocking, or blown up debt piles predicated on a 2001-2007 type run-up in growth going on for the indefinite future?
The problem with Ken's tool is that the servers get blasted. I can't imagine if we have a CRVIX of 500+ what would happen if most have this tool.
Pandora's box has been opened Nemo.
Glod help us all.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
Ken,
The chime indicating a new post is a nice touch. I had the volume down when I installed the add-on at work, so I was a bit startled tonight when my computer chimed. Have you considered a little squeal instead? Or maybe the sounds of pigs at the trough?
Thanks again.
I don't know if this has been posted, but here is another drag on the holiday shopping season:
Your mail-in rebate may be in jeapordy
Continental Promotions Group, a rebate processing company, filed for bankruptcy protection today, with an estimated $10M rebates outstanding. There are reports of bounced rebate check, and many in the forum discussions say they will not buy anything with mail-in rebates until this whole mess is sorted out.
Speaking of mortgage pig, I have to say I think often of our absent host Tanta.
Miss your crabby ways, T.
mmckinl--you need to move to Canada.
Here's this dog's situation: need to do home upgrades (wood trim/windows mostly - rotting out at 12 years now). Would like to with cash but don't have it. Hope it doesn't get worse over the winter or charge it with credit I don't want to extend.
Working two jobs already but second income gone until the spring. Paid down tons of debt past 18-24 months, still on the hook for mortgage, car and one CC.
Any loss of income at this point, and I go under. Would be interesting to know how many other folks are in this situation, where, and to whom they owe their debts.
Maybe another idea for a wiki as discussed previously? Or a feature to be included in one?
"This would seem to suggest there is significant downside risk to home improvement spending over the next couple of years."
Naw, just a hiccough. People need radioactive granite counter tops. Aids in mutation. We all know those mutations will make smarter humans.
Soon we'll have children with brain's the size of a planet. Which will allow them to Grok 42 properly.
All part of the plan.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
Who was the one that chastised me for talking PUTS on HD et al a month or so ago?
Glad I didn't listen to you...
"...and many in the forum discussions say they will not buy anything with mail-in rebates until this whole mess is sorted out."
I refuse to buy anything with a mail-in rebate, and have for years. That business is a complete scam. You can always get the same or better deal elsewhere, for less work than it takes to collect the rebate.
Loews and Home Depot will make excellent homeless shelters... I was in both last Saturday morning, and was amazed that there were more people at the Starbucks I purchased coffee at.
I refuse to buy anything with a mail-in rebate, and have for years. That business is a complete scam.
I've got it. Make the TARP into a rebate program. We'll only have to pay 10% of what we promised and we won't have to send the check until next year!
Sheila Bair has to get in on this mail-in rebate gig. After all, if the funds are in an FDIC insured institution . . . oh, wait, the checks bounced?
Lothar,
Sorry to hear it. I've got student loans to worry about. Bankruptcy solves some problems, but not student loans.
Elizabeth Warren writes great stuff re personal debt, both in books and online. Good luck.
Guess I don't need to write that next book...
Went to a Lowes recently, you could have played 18 holes in the joint with no spectators. As for their hired help, is EVERYONE under 30 retarded?
"As for their hired help, is EVERYONE under 30 retarded?"
No, but the under-30s that you encountered are not exactly representative of the best and brightest, given their place of employment. Those are the ones who didn't graduate from HS and are probably high most of the day at work.
hangtown, everyone under 30 that works at lowes is either retarded or constantly high off their asses.
doh.. must type faster.
Lothar,
You need to listen to the Dave Ramsey radio show. See Dave Ramsey Homepage - daveramsey.com Just listen to that show for a couple of hours, and you'll have lots of ideas and inspiration. You can listen on the web too.
Yeah, the best and brightest work on Wall Street.
Free pony with a $50 dollar purchase
im always amused when i go to lowes or hd for spraypaint, and wait 5 minutes for somebody to come unlock the protective cage, than give up and open the combo lock myself- which was left with the last digit advanced one position.
as though graffiti kids wont figure that one out.
i got caught in the act one, and the old guy chewed me out for taking advantage of his laziness! hah!
CR,
why no shaded recession areas on the charts?
Misean - is yr tinfoilhatter link working? Couldn't get it, errm, up.
CC
Anonymous writes:
mmckinl--you need to move to Canada.
~~~~~
They are becoming too much like us ... pity ...
don't think this was posted, but a report from the FDIC today is worth noting. so what's up with all these agencies writing laws that should be done by congress? rule of law? ad hoc insanity.
\t
FDIC Loss Sharing Proposal to Promote Affordable Loan Modifications
"A loss share guarantee on redefaults of modified mortgages can provide the necessary incentive to modify mortgages on a sufficient scale, while leveraging available government funds to affect more mortgages than outright purchases or specific incentives for every modification. The FDIC would be prepared to serve as contractor for Treasury and already has extensive experience in the IndyMac modification process."
FDIC: FDIC Loss Sharing Proposal to Promote Affordable Loan Modifications
Will the Residential Investment, New Family Structures, as a % of GDP hit zero?
Now that would be an overshoot of epic proportions.
heard a clip today on NPR of Bush stating to big applause that the problem with the economy stems from too much regulation. i lol'ed.
disclaimer: i am also reading about Pinochet and the "chicago boys"
The crony capitalist republican thieves have done a might fine job at destroy whats left of the working man.
Job well done republi-liars.
Can you folks be more irritating please so I can test out the add-on? Where the heck is DK?
serf Alan Greenspend
seems Bair and Paulson are having a spat ...
Bair wants to help home owners and Paulson wants to help his friends...
UnhappyCE:
stay away from that Naomi Klein girl. she will warp your mind.
Pinochet and the "chicago boys"
Naomi Klein has a great take on the neoconservatives.
you want irritating? i got irritating
communist! america hater! liberal dogs!
Man Kashkari is one ugly Indian. Whats the derogatory term for Indians anyway? raghead?
rather smelly clients
you go people
Im trying to take Klein with a bit of salt- but she make a compelling, if overly dramatic argument. Next ill have to find the alternative accounts...
Kashkari , Paulson ...
Notice all the a holes have their head shaved like it was a penis.
perhaps when home improvement is under the average, and the Residential Investment in Single Family Structures is at 0.
That might be a time to buy a house and open a small business. Looks like a while yet.
Im optomistic for a rip the band aid off bottom. I guess another Sovereign as well GS has to go under first.
Naomi Klien is dead on.
Jack Hylton - Happy Days Are Here Again
YouTube -
unhappyCakeEater
you are living through disaster capitalism right now ... Tarp was classic shock doctrine politics...
Naomi Klein has a great take on the neoconservatives.
mmckinl | 11.14.08 - 9:53 pm |
that's what I mean.
it will warp your mind so you become non-spec status on the "born and bred dope" index.
then you will have to change your handle to "mmckinl channelling Jas" or stop posting.
I especially enjoy the argument that the Marshall plan worked as well as it did because of the threat of socialist revolt in Germany, and the resultant compromise between state controlled social programs and free market capitalism.
Naomi Klein has had it right from the start. Long live Disaster Capitalism.
This is the 2nd time we've seen this pitch, yes?
My 1st swing at it was thinking it was high end (who else has the spending power?) spending ~20X what Joe does, but now I also think that it may also contain moderate end renovations as people are financially constrained and turn their attics into grow ops or basement coal bins into suites.
I expect low # from Depot though, so I stil think my 1st pitch works...and captures the wealth gradient these graphs, like so much of the data, conceal.
I am starting a New South Africa Burbclave. Who wants in?
Thought-provoking article by Alf Fields.
His thesis is simple: the trillions of dollars that the US has racked up in foreign trade deficits, which have been distributed around the planet, were multiplied 9X by fractional reserve banking, and it is this sum of quasi-money that is now collapsing.
As an aside from me, we may well be talking about 100 trillion in quasi-money vanishing from this punctured balloon of debt.
Governments can "cover" it - which is to say take the huge debts onto their own books via guarantees and purchases - but ultimately only by printing.
So the world's cash is about to expand by 100 trillion dollars, while productive assets grow listlessly at maybe 2-3% per year.
Prescription for hyperinflation.
yes, I just coined the phrase
"Rip the bandaid off bottom"
its mine.
After another Soveriegn collapse, and make it Citibank. Is that ok Hank?
Goldman gets to live.
as for the Sovereign default. Its either Brazil or Australia. That'll get the plebes fired up burning shit down.
NorkaWest
I find Jas honest ... refreshing after these last 8 years.
Have any of you read Roubini's site today? He's full of cheery news and commentary...NOT.
I have to laugh at the Video of The Day in the lower right hand corner. Does is surprise anyone that Schiff is ridiculed by Fox Noise? After their shenanigans, lies, misrepresentations it's a wonder anyone with half a brain tunes into their garbage.
Whats Issa, an Arab? Pretty sharp for an Arab.
Naomi Klein has had it right from the start. Long live Disaster Capitalism.
Comrade Kristina | 11.14.08 - 10:00 pm |
I know.
It's like they spent the last forty years practicing on all the black, brown, and yellow people and now that they have all the kinks out of the program, they bringing it home to North America and Europe.
Karma payback is a nasty bitch.
Whats Issa, an Arab?
Lebanese ... but they don't claim him ...
Schiff has been very right, and my execution has been a travesty.
Im in the Schiff plan.
Very cool tool Ken ..
Interesting blip the other day:
Balance sheet of the Federal Reserve
The net result of such dual Treasury/Fed operations is that the newly created "reserves" would just sit there in the Treasury supplementary account doing nothing other than standing as an accounting entry. In other words, the device allowed for a huge expansion of the Fed's balance sheet without causing any change in currency in circulation or reserve deposits.
"After their shenanigans, lies, misrepresentations it's a wonder anyone with half a brain tunes into their garbage."
I would say this applies to television in general.
I recall the closeted homosexual Larry Kudlow ridiculing Schiff.Yet Schiff proved the nutty GOP apologist wrong.... again.
much like the Pickens plan, whom I subscribe.
natgas, wind, and water.... all in the shitter.
I find Jas honest ... refreshing after these last 8 years.
No trash talk meant towards you or Jas. It is dispiriting that he is probably right.
schiff? the decoupling guy? good luck with that investment plan.
"So the world's cash is about to expand by 100 trillion dollars..."
Translation: the only tangible things left in this world are food, cocaine and virginity.
Kona
sure .... why should the banks suffer cash problems while the rest of us do ...
the banks will inherit the earth ...
racist, thats why the mortgage pig add on is so superlative....
for those that missed it earlier in the day (sorry for not remembering the OP:)
a sign of Armageddon:
Page Not Found
too damn funny.
Did anyone see Kudlows boyfriend Art Laffer depart from the economic theory that is his namesake? Laffer is running away from his fraud in a fast and furious way but history shows that Reagan was dumb enough to believe that "cutting taxes raises revenue".
It's been way past bedtime for Bonzo for decades now...
CR, don't reveal your sources, but you need to list the home improvement companies you do not have an interest in...we will do the rest.
I'm not sure. I bought some home improvemen stuff today. Need some spiffing up prior to Christmas.
Overall, though we are trimming back our Christmas budget. Last year we agreed to buy new lights and now we will do w/ the old.
and in my local news -
Best Buy Opens Bronx Store Before Inevitable Bankruptcy
New York - Runnin' Scared - Best Buy Opens Bronx Store Before Inevitable Bankruptcy
SpermShack writes:
you want irritating? i got irritating
communist! america hater! liberal dogs!
SpermShack | 11.14.08 - 9:53 pm
get a life.
home improvement ?
People will need duct tape to fasten their card board box homes together ...
CC,
Server was an old PC that blew up.
Haven't taken the time to replace it's HD. Drives for that machine are getting harder to come by.
Nostrovia,
things are looking up in Marin. They converted our local Circuit City store into a CF Chang restaurant a few months ago.
Sarah Palin wrote:
...Armageddon, great, we have been waiting for that, right? @9:19 pm
no, its been waiting for us
The slope of the current downtown in RI looks a lot like 1979-1983 without the "burp". I think an RI bottom will happen shortly and start to recover in March-May 2009.
Consider this over the weekend, and your cash position
Jesse's Café Américain: China Expected to Shift Reserves into Commodities and Gold
Oops forgot to post this OT thing:
Top 10 Beards from Karl Marx to ZZ Top:
Top 10 beards from Karl Marx to ZZ Top - Times Online
things are looking up in Marin.
~~~~
Marin, isn't that were rich hippies hang in hot tubs ?
As well as this also
Saudi Arabia buys $3.5bn of gold in two weeks « ArabianMoney.Net
Tool man,
YouTube - Home improvement clips
Nostrovia,
The Hartford Announces Agreement To Acquire Federal Trust Bank
And Application To U.S. Treasury Capital Purchase Program
Friday November 14, 3:20 pm ET
that and jazz.
thats the jessie crossroads.
Doc at the Radar Station
yer at least a year early, imho ...
over half of the bubble loans have yet to reset and the employment picture looks .... pick an adjective ...
Intellectually, I hope that Home Depot takes it in the neck.
The contractor/designer on the basement project sent to very upscale places for fixtures and we scotched that and went to HD instead in order to keep the cost down. Hell, a vanity is a vanity is a vanity...
To purchase a vanity and top plus a mirror took three separate trips because they screwed up the order so badly. Complete and utter incompetence and the staff didn't give a (*&^.
I had them take everything back and will never go back.
Volker:
I'm interested. Contact me via the website. I'll check out ITEX...
Is JDSU a good model for The Bush Ownership Society; is this a chart that predicts the future?
JDSU: Basic Chart for JDS Uniphase Corporation - Yahoo! Finance
Home improvements equal extra bunkbeds in the garage for mom and granny, right??? Right??
yup.
they either picked their rich ancestors well; or they were lucky enough to put their dope patches in the way of urban sprawl so that they are now certain that they are Glods gift to the real estate business.
but the weather is really nice, especially if you remember winter in the midwest.
My father worked for a proto-home improvement chain on the West Coast that got totally wiped out in the mid-90s due to increasing competition and the fallout of the first housing crash.
SpermShack(Irritating) writes:
you want irritating? i got irritating
Thanks... gotcha!
I had them take everything back and will never go back.
~~~~~~
They miss you too ... xoxoxo
Gosh, our Home Depo has nice friendly, non high, fairly well informed people.
yer at least a year early, imho ...
over half of the bubble loans have yet to reset and the employment picture looks .... pick an adjective ...
mmckinl
Could be.. Just a WAH. Thinking nation-wide average starting to STOP declining that's all.
doc,
the dickens beard is the one I sport. Im suprised the bernanke profile didnt make the cut.
Had enough of the GOP brand of economics? You all got fukked hard.
NorkaWest
been through there, very spooky ... I prefer the West Side ... too many critters sulking around fancy shops on the east side ...
Well ... duh! If people are worried about losing their jobs and homes, do you think they're going to spend money on home improvements?
Cracker,
What surprised me was Lenin's beard. That photo just doesn't jive with my memory of him at all.
funny,
yet the actual darwin is on a travelling road show.
Liz:
I've come to conclude that when we use the initials HD, we mean "Hiring Defectives".
G'night.
Doc at the Radar Station
naw , no respite from Greenspan Land ... I feel the same way , got to be the end , then I read the latest eco figures ...
The well to do areas are just getting started ... silicon valley is up next for cliff diving RE prices.
wmbz writes:
Had enough of the GOP brand of economics? You all got fukked hard.
Ahh yes because... oh never mind. If my comment were able to make a difference you wouldn't be so fast to place singular partisan blame.
The look in Rasputin's eye looks like Charles Manson's pictures.
Intellectually, I hope that Home Depot takes it in the neck.
I guess homedads onboard with Hired Defectives taking one in the neck.
I support a local "Defective" training outfit that utilizes the "Defectives"....
gnight.
From reading these posts lately, I think CR has gone mainstream. Ken are you CR?
Mainstream?
Quelle insult!!
Nighty nite.
lawyerliz,
They did an awesome skit on SNL with John Belushi playing Rasputin that is really good! I think he took about 2 dozen bullets and lived.
This blog is great for putting pieces of the puzzle on the table, but at times people here get blocked about how to put them together.
This is not Armageddon for the world or global economies. The world will do fine, after a little back-stepping.
This is a major problem for the U.S., the U.S. economy, and the standard of living of many people in the U.S.
In the next phase, maybe 6-12 months away, you will start to see real decoupling -- not just of Asia and the U.S. but also Europe and the U.S. Other parts of the world can't afford to drag the U.S. anchor around any more.
I'm not saying...our standard of living will sink to India's. I'm saying over the next decade, India will rise and we will sink and the gap will narrow quite a bit.
That's why I decided to get out of EEV and get into commodities and PMs big time. I'm still bearish on the U.S. economy. But I think even the U.S. will get some bounce from the fumes of commodities, Asia, and ultimately Europe's recovery.
Will Obama help the U.S. recovery? Probably so, but maybe not until his second term. Even so, it will feel like a nightmare here, mainly because so many people got so fat, stupid and in debt.
I'm looking for a big commodity-driven bounce in the stock market over the next few weeks, especially in emerging markets. Then, in 2009, I think we'll see the U.S. stock market really tank another 20-40% from here.
My 2 cents.
rich
commodities will have a hard time rallying in dollar terms ... dollars are being destroyed ...
think about gold ... unless you are in dollar or yen gold has been great ...
trouble is the world is pegged to the disappearing currency ... the dollar.
Damn it... just found out my bro-in-law, an IT-professional, got fired (with about 20 others). Full ass-to-the-curb treatment: security guard at side, pack-your-box, escort-to-the-door to make sure you don't screw the system on your way out. Two weeks pay with vacation check.
Also have a sister, 61 years old, who reports: A colleague to the right of my desk was let go two weeks ago. The colleague to the left of my desk was just told his job funding has gone to so try to find a job with them (really!). The colleague who sits across from me was let go a month ago, found another position still within and just learned last Friday that the position is unfunded!
2009 ain't gonna be pretty for real folks. But thank god the bonuses at the banks got funded via TARP!
rich, I think the rest of the world is going to get hammered far worse. Too many built their economies around currency manipulation and exports. Like they say, when you owe the bank a little money you've got a problem.. when you owe the bank a lot of money, the bank has got a problem. I think we can come back faster than the ROW can recover and "decouple".
we's dopes
how, cause we dont know
dont know what?
whos gettin the 700 billion
yeah thats right we dont know
cause they wont tell us
and of course we wont make em
cause we just do what we are told
but even if they did tell, you, i, we, still would not know
cause after the money enters here, and is cycled there, and around and around and up and down and back and forth then it comes out here, yeah, right into that guys pocket and you and a pack of philedelphia lawyers cant track or trace it
you see its simple
there is a magnetic attraction between 700 billion and the place where that money truly belongs...in the hands of the masters
and if youre reading this, you aint one of the masters, are ya
ope, just a useless eater.
Doc at the Radar Station
what do they say ... ?
he may get better but he'll never be well ...
We've got 50 trillion in debt , private , public , business ... doesn't include social security and medicare promises.
Until the debt is written off or inflated out of, we've got real problems.
I have a full finished basement that sustained water damage from Tropical Storm Hanna this past summer. Not one penny was covered on the homeowners' insurance. ... Cost $3,300 -- which of course we had no choice but to pay -- to get everything dried out safely and the mold and mildew removed. But now it's in shambles -- needs drywall, painting, bathroom tile redone, paneling reinstalled, etc., etc., etc. Estimate for all the repair is another $3,800. ... At this point, I can see that basement sitting, unable to be used, in shambles, because we haven't a spare penny to get it fixed up. Major blow to the value of the home and not a damn thing we can or will do about it.
a useless eater, me too
there is a magnetic attraction between 700 billion and the place where that money truly belongs...in the hands of the masters
. . . and Rob Dawg wonders why no one cares what a Republican Operative has to say about the problem or the solution.
I think you simpletons have misses the fact that we have just made a "head and shoulder" and "sucessful retest of the lows". You do not want to miss the big "oversold" bounce that is coming.
I mean, it is not like we are at a juncture that has never been seen before, so my charts do no lie.....
Passenger car registrations fell 14.5% year-over-year in Europe in October. Iceland down 85%. Ireland down 55%. Other countries posted gains.
ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association
Until the debt is written off or inflated out of, we've got real problems.
If all the flies on the wall around the world could gather and play back what they are hearing, there will likely be more shouting, sturm, and drang coming from the emerging market countries as the developed world. Just my opinion. If they want to decouple they are going to have to come up with a new paradigm of their own which they can agree on and that's going to be a tough nut to crack.
mock turtle writes: a useless eater, me too
In the Army, we used to call the worthless "oxygen thieves". Apply the term as you see fit. (I doubt you'd be anywhere near the head of the line.)
Me, I saw all this coming .. sold all my real estate went to cash and Tbills over 2 years ago ... been callin' Bush "worst ever" for 4 years ...
I'm still miserable just looking at this mess that didn't need to happen ... my sisters, family screwed, neighbors fallin' away ...
We need to prosecute these aholes ... and I mean decades and much money back.
rich:
I think that we are going to experience economic crack-the-whip. We will be slung out wide by deflation as the P in Q*P drops despite the M skyrocketing since V is plummeting; Then, V will bottom out and start rising; but Q cannot rise since we destroyed our production base during the deflation; and so P will take off.
In short, if we don't fall through the ice during the deflation, then we will probably end up off the ice and into the trees during the inflation.
It should be one hell of a ride.
A shout-out for FireFox users to try "CR Companion". Awesome.
(But if another user cut-and-pastes a comment from me with (Unrated) still showing after my name, I'm going to be very (Irritated) with you! Throw me a bone, damn it!)
Top 10 Beards from Karl Marx to ZZ Top:
The Times of London forgot Arianna Huffington.
If they want to decouple they are going to have to come up with a new paradigm of their own which they can agree on and that's going to be a tough nut to crack.
Doc at the Radar Station
~~~~~~~~~
No accident Doc ... that's the way it was planned. Been so ever since the colonial money system "fractional reserve banking" has been enforced. The banks control everything through the purse strings ...
Armageddon? Wouldn't "Crapture" be a better term for not being able to buy shoddy merchandise with debt that will never be repaid?
"I think you simpletons have misses the fact that we have just made a "head and shoulder" and "sucessful retest of the lows"."
[deleted]*
Have a nice day.
*Expletive deleted by commenter.
Top 10 Beards from Karl Marx to ZZ Top:
The Times of London forgot Arianna Huffington.
El Cliffö
LOL, excellent snark with double-entendre twist.
mp | 11.14.08 - 4:38 pm | #
I, for one, was laughed at some years ago for commenting that I never opened a 401K, even after explaining why.
They're not laughing any more. They're asking for help.
I converted the 401K to the website in 2003. I had this nagging feeling which I could not put into numbers/rational arguments till started reading CR.
But, as you can see no easy investments. If its easy, there is a catch somewhere sometime.
&nsbsp;
JJL,
The assumption of Ceteris paribus is incorrect. A ship's motion through the waves across a wide range of sea states is predictable. However, when the keel is broken and the ship is taking on water, the motions can be dampened or amplified but the overall direction is clearly changed in the direction of the bottom.
Didn't Buffett reduce his holdings of Loew's and Home Depot in the last quarter?
mp writes:
"I think you simpletons have misses the fact that we have just made a "head and shoulder" and "sucessful retest of the lows"."
~~~~~
Do the rules even apply anymore ... that is the ones Paulson doesn't change on a daily basis.
at least the mexicans go back to honduras or wherever they come from. no more jacuzzis to put in.
mmckinl
exactly, me too, saw it comming... thanks to this and several other blogs i got religion
got financially safe more than a year ago (ok i was early)
but im not happy about it
i can see the handwriting on the wall..the whole place is going to hell
how can one be happy and watch the world around you get torn up
got friends? got family? got kids? its their world too
the extreme right wing of the repub party.. the neocons, the crony capitalists... have effed all those around them so that they could squeeze the last ounce of profit outta the system caring not a whit about anybody or anything else as long as they got a lions share.
ask yourself a question... when have you ever heard any of these people say:
we need better regulation
or
we need different regulation
no
they always say less less less regulation
government is always the problem they say
now they come crying to the government to give them their last fix before the candy man is carried to the gallows and lynched and burned before their eyes.
greedy grubby thieves to the end
mmckinl, Conjure and I have been out for some time, as you know. We're simply waiting at this point.
I certainly wouldn't be trading this market and, as you may recall, advised against it beginning several months ago.
i understand "i told you so", but i dont understand how anyone could be suprised by a receding home improvement sector. there has been many mentions of the death of home improvement since the HELOC atm choked
"A shout-out for FireFox users to try "CR Companion". Awesome. "
Thanks for that. Indeed, it is awesome.
"Marin, isn't that were rich hippies hang in hot tubs ?"
Yes.
Also lots of wealthy lawyers and bankster types. Mill Valley, one of the last real estate bubble strongholds, looks like it's just popped:
15 Euterpe St, Mill Valley, CA 94941
That house went into escrow one week after a 30% markdown. If it sells anywhere near that markdown price - it's just set a new comp for the town. Only 9% of houses on the market are currently in escrow, an all-time low I believe...
greedy grubby thieves to the end
mock turtle
~~~~
Yep ... to hell with forgiveness, that's God's job ... I want some retribution for these MFs.
Folks,
do not get me wrong, I am pointing out the stupid pet tricks side of things!
In my post on my blog i dicuss why the stock market is no longer a economic bellweather!
I certainly wouldn't be trading this market and, as you may recall, advised against it beginning several months ago.
mp
~~~~~~~
not trading, just buying a little ... bought munis yielding 9% ... hope no states go broke ...
Out of poker chips?
How Do You Spell "Liquidity Trap"? - The Market Ticker
Marin.
Dad worked at Marinship during the war. He'd take a company ferry over from the Kaiser yard in Oakland. The surrounding area was all farms then.
Toward the end of the war, they laid a keel and launched a destroyer the following day. The record still stands, as far as I know.
Times change.
...but Q cannot rise since we destroyed our production base during the deflation...
Norka West
You make a very good argument (whether you intended to or not) to bridge loan domestic manufacturers-which I agree with.
If you want to read something really scary (don't we all?), check out London Banker's latest: Systemic Risk, Contagion and Trade Finance - Back to the Bad Old Days
dealerz outta gold. therez your bellweather bitch.
mmckinl
i hope you arent holding your breath:
Financial Armageddon: State and Local Budget Meltdown
"...do not get me wrong, I am pointing out the stupid pet tricks side of things!"
JJL, I respect you, but I don't appreciate being called a simpleton.
Since your comment was directed at no one in particular, I assume it was directed to all of us.
That house went into escrow one week after a 30% markdown. If it sells anywhere near that markdown price - it's just set a new comp for the town. Only 9% of houses on the market are currently in escrow, an all-time low I believe...
max flatow
~~~~
thanks for the info ...
Well now Pelosi will hear it ... that's her bailiwick, maybe some of their anger will get her moving her ass to get these MFs.
NorkaWest writes:
rich:
I think that we are going to experience economic crack-the-whip. We will be slung out wide by deflation as the P in Q*P drops despite the M skyrocketing ...
It should be one hell of a ride.
11:02 pm | #
to see what Norka is talking bout scroll down to the last picture on the left, near the bottom, of jesse's cafe
madam le moderateur
thats what we're gonna get
Jesse's Café Américain
Q? shit. whose production base is getting destroyed? we dont got one no more... chinks got it. we wantz it back. will ship coupla thousand houses in exchange.
Kona writes:
Is JDSU a good model for The Bush Ownership Society; is this a chart that predicts the future?
Now THAT is a Matterhorn formation. Waiting for the gandalf and I'm in.
Good call on the Rally ... This is the crazy casino I've ever seen . Still short Toll Brothers , Foot Locker , Long Silver ...
unhappyCakeEater
know all about it, that's why I mentioned it ...
but, me thinks I have a better chance with Obama than McCain ...
I made my money buying ghetto prop at $20 sqft and selling it for $120 sqft. after renovation. You don't scare so easy after collecting rents in the Iron Triangle ...
Larry writes:
If you want to read something really scary (don't we all?), check out London Banker's latest:
The collapse of the Baltic Dry Index that's been talked about on this site for the last several months makes a little more sense now. Thanks.
Until the debt is written off or inflated out of, we've got real problems.
Inflating away debt is soverign default. Credit becomes a mechanism of theft rather than cooperative sharing. Inflation does nothing to alleviate the damage to lenders done by credit abuse, but it wipes away the evidence of the crimes.
Inflation is a mechanism that protects the criminals from paying the costs of their crimes by keeping defaults from identifying who they are.
Inflation is a mechanism that transfers punishment from the criminal to the victim.
Inflation changes credit from a mechanism that promotes efficient use of resources through sharing, to a mechanism that promotes efficient theft of resources.
If we destroy belief in credit this way then we've got real problems.
I'm just sayin... CBBC Newsround | GALLERIES | American fighter planes gallery
It's faster than Bernanke's helicopters.
Many folks have been asking for a Wiki (to hash out policy proposals and other ideas that pop up here), and I also humbly submit that for sustained threads of discussion, a forum might be better than the CR comment lists.
In an earlier thread today I promised a Wiki within 9 hours. Delivery in 5! A forum is nearly ready as well.
For BondGirl, should she return here, and others:
The password-protected wiki you requested is now available at ic4mg.com/wiki !
The ic4mg forum will be accepting postings as well later this weekend (after I put the kids to bed here, hopefully).
-- WS
P.S. Did Kashkari TARP over today's expected bank failures? Or is Sheila Bair's FDIC planning a massive takeunder for Thanksgiving-time?
If we destroy belief in credit this way then we've got real problems.
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Like it hasn't been happening for 30 years now with the phony figures the Feds have been putting out ...
wake the f up ... the debt will be reckoned on the backs of the middle class and the poor.
Is it just me, or does Paulson look like he doesn't quite know what he's doing?
take a nip or two
nothing too serious
re: video of the day- lulz at Ben Stein "putting merrill lynch in cereal boxes and giving it away"
buy guns. inflation proof. deflation proof. protect yourself and your family against the hood rats coming for you when mad max rules apply.
Have commented in the past about the time it takes the sheeple to understand that the world has changed. They are getting it now and more and more are terrified. Thus the collapse in retail sales. It will take a long time for the damage to morale to be healed. We are fearing fear itself.
I think Paulson is just trying to slow it down.
This is still a crash, a crash with massive intervention, button pushing and lever pulling on a global scale.
the deterioration in the comments which stimulated the morgtgage pig add-on is similiar to the Paulson obfuscation..
I am hoping chaos is contained, but as I listen more and more to mp, it isnt.
Sure sign that Citigroup is in deep trouble:
Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit sought to reassure employees after the stock tumbled this week, saying in a memo that the bank's revenue is strong and stable'' and its capitalplentiful.''
Bloomberg
this is a crash. paulson not slowing it down. just delaying it for banks for a bit to let his buddies buy some gold and leave the country. real economy is fucked. banks and financials are double-fucked. no rescue possible. gd2 here. hard landing straight off the cliff. how does freefall feel?
A challenge to CR gumshoes:
A friend of mine asked NBER where their funding comes from and, with great hope in her heart, about their budget. She received a nice note back explaining that they are a non-profit and that they have an endowment (not specified) and receive money from NIH and NSF. Since these are the folks that generate most of the "research" that justifies policy, it's a worthwile question, right? Who is funding them? Challenge in two parts: 1) What's their budget 2) Who funds them?
Are non-profits obligated to disclose the source of their donors?
Bonus points: Who funds CEPR and what's their budget?
anybody see Cheech and Chong on Bloomberg?
or am I hallucinating that?
Boy, the words "Depression", "Armageddon", etc. are getting bandied about in the media a lot these days.
People are starting to catch on.
...append to post above: And who endows/endowed them.
I just saw Sebastian on Charlie Rose.
I didnt get Sebastians last name, but it was Jeff Sachs and others.
The woman said, because of Sarbox the US lost jobs to London, on the Financial innovation side.
Sachs had to reply, it does not seem like it was bad the US lost those Financial Innovation jobs in retrospect
Wisdom Seeker said:
For BondGirl, should she return here, and others:
The password-protected wiki you requested is now available at ic4mg.com/wiki !
I get "Error 403 - Forbidden" to that.
I think it is really
Error 404 - Not found
the deterioration in the comments which stimulated the morgtgage pig add-on is similiar to the Paulson obfuscation
Paulson's obfuscation was deliberate, the deterioration was a side effect of success and change.
Most people can't think very well, but believe otherwise.
Jas is the exception to the rule and that's quite depressing.
well Uncle Billy, why did Buffett get 10% preffered in GS and GE, why did MTU take it in Morgan, why did Russia talk of bailing out Iceland as they were going broke, why is Japan increasing funding for the IMF....
there is not a shortage of money, funding is a function of global functions.... If the NBER is necessary, they will be funded dont matter ifn its in Yen or Pound or Dollar or Frank...Yuan and Ruble, not so much.
still a great question.
Are we certain Ken's not CIA or NSA?
Guys, I need your help! I have been reading that no one can time. If this were true, then how come the blog belwo has been timing the tops and bottoms of the market before they happen or as they happen practically without fail. If you think that this is not true, I have been following the blog but you can check it yourself by looking at pages cached by google. (Google bots do not lie, and the cache material with a time-stamp). Therefore, the information on the blog is honest and accurate.
Here is a sample of predictions:
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: Stock Market Crash October 2008 Bottom for Investors (10/10/2008)
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: DOW SP500 Nasdaq 100 bottom october 2008 (second chance)
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: stock price prediction (tomorrow's stock price): QQQQ, NDX, NQ, SPY, DIA trading
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: Stock market bottom November 2008 price prediction
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: tomorrow's stock price prediction QQQQ Trading (DIA, SPY, NDX, QID)
How can these people do this, and the rest of the people lose their money?
Ken's little script is open-source... I checked it out.
Then again... can you trust me? o_O
I don't trust my own mother.
Maybe they're self-promoting liars. Could that be it? What do you think?
Bear: It feels like this...
YouTube - Taiko Drumming
You make a very good argument (whether you intended to or not) to bridge loan domestic manufacturers-which I agree with.
Doc at the Radar Station
We agree. Only question is whether it would be cheaper to bridge-loan to prevent bankruptcy or to do debtor-in-possession financing.
I stress "cheaper" because the Fed has shot almost all their interest rate cut bullets, the AIG black hole is sucking in all the fiscal bullets, and Treasury auctions are ramping up and not doing so well. We do not have unlimited funds to fix Main Street, since they are being soaked up by Wall Street.
Norka
P.S. I would tie and gag Sheila Blair in the closet so we no longer hear about her mortgage bailout plan.
The Norka Plan would be to modify the bankruptcy law so unsound home loans can be rewritten into sound home loans (i.e., Cramdowns). Define sound home loans as being fixed monthly payments under one-third of gross income, full documentation at origination, no prepayment penalties, owner-occupied, one-hook per house (i.e., no HELOCs), and an adequate downpayment on new loans.
I favor using bankruptcy courts and cramdowns over predatory lending rules for the following reasons:
With a minor change to the bankruptcy law, if you make a stupid mortgage loan, you face cramdown.
If you do not fully disclose that your mortgage pools are full of stupid loans, securitization is at your legal and financial peril.
Credit rating agencies should be able to spot pools of stupid loans. If they fail to do so, yank their NRSRO tickets.
[rant off]
tom,
if your sittin pushing buttons, and you are in a room with other button pushers...when the needle thingy is all the way on one side....
some watcher not pusing buttons comes in and says...."hey, this is a little overdone"
How do these guys do it?
I stopped pushing buttons on October 10th...
Well now Pelosi will hear it ... that's her bailiwick, maybe some of their anger will get her moving her ass to get these MFs.
Pelosi represents district 8 which does not include Marin. Lynn Woolsey has represented district 6 since Barbara Boxer came to the Senate.
With a minor change to the bankruptcy law..
thanks norka, that was nice.
Anonymous | 11.15.08 - 12:00 am == RE
NorkaWest,
Make it so.
(That's not an order, a la Captain Jean-Luc Picard, but rather encouragement to get the Norka Plan out there where it will do some good.)
Norka West, excellent post! Given your position on cramdowns (which I also agree with), what do you think about the CDS bogeyman and how we should deal with that?
too fucking many almost empty houses out there. burn a few. all betterz off. stupid economics.
Pelosi represents district 8 which does not include Marin. Lynn Woolsey has represented district 6 since Barbara Boxer came to the Senate.
Anonymous
My bad ... think it used to be so ... SF won't be far behind in RE losses ...
Hmmm... CEPR said they had a budget of two million pounds back in 2002-2003. Notice this is many years ago. This the annual report that comes up when you click on their annual report link:
http://cepr.org/AboutCEPR/annualreport/02_03_AR.pdf
I repeat: this is what comes up when you click on their annual report link. 2002-2003. What CEPR does
Coincidentally, Elhanan Halpman is discussed on the same page on which they publish their budget number. Elhanan is the fellow that Krugman thanked the most in his acceptance speech.
"I certainly wouldn't be trading this market and, as you may recall, advised against it beginning several months ago."
mp | 11.14.08 - 11:11 pm
In an earlier thread, you said something about "wise people better be quick" referring to potentially ameliorative government action. Please feel free to elaborate.
Also, earlier thread's reference to a horse and blackjack went completely over my head. Would appreciate some help there.
Finally, welcome back, missed your posts lots, but not as much as Tanta's.
The Kitco article is very good, but is this really correct:
"What was the money tap that was left running? It is a flaw in the international monetary system which allows the USA to pay for its trade deficit using newly created US Dollars."
Aren't we really getting recycled, rather than new, US dollars coming back to us from China, paid for with new debt which China keeps buying?
It seems to me that a big part of the problem has been China's conscious decision to keep the yuan from appreciating by pegging it to the dollar and by just sending our dollars back to us in exchange for treasuries rather than converting the dollars into their currency. I'm not sure that this is a flaw in the monetary system as much as a conscious decision by China to abuse the system, with the US doing nothing more than issue half-hearted protests.
If not for China's conscious decision to keep the yuan from appreciating, there would have long since been inflation in China and a recession in the US, thus making Chinese imports more expensive in the US and lowering the US trade deficit.
Short Johnsonville Brats that the sell outside of HD and go long empty humunguous box stores with lots of parking.
if by Q*P the Q is Quantitative price, long money notwithstanding, then I should buy all the Quantitative pricing power that remains of a Sovereign debt, ie: German 10 year bonds.
or I should buy my own debt,and if I am german, I should have no debt to speak of, lest I am in a union of debt.
Why do I as an American question the validity of my own statement? The German 20's and 30's inverted today. and the short end did not rally.
I also noticed Brazillian 6 month bonds had one of the greatest rallies of all time early in the day....very little news to speak of.
short mexicans. too much supply.
Other curves on my mind. 'Til morning.
"If not for China's conscious decision to keep the yuan from appreciating, there would have long since been inflation in China and a recession in the US, thus making Chinese imports more expensive in the US and lowering the US trade deficit."
Gee I wonder we made such half-hearted attempts to push a Yuan devaluation.
Could it be because we don't have the political will or balls to suffer a recession?
Best to look in the mirror when one decides where the problem in international trade lies.
Everyday brings more gloom and doom kaboom. I find the people disparaging the GOP to be quite naive regarding calvary they expect to come and save them. We didn't even get an impeachment hearing in Congress, yet I think there are many who think wasting money on a war with false premise is a far greater time than foolin' around at work.
If you wanna know why people are drawn to folks like Joe the Plumber and the mythical image of an everyday mom that Sarah Palin, its because they want to see a government run by everyday folks like themselves. Unfortunatly we have too parties too busy trying to out-scream the other and "win" rather than parties that care about the voters the for more than 60 days of the election cycle. Does it really feel so good to disparage the other person and make them feel inhumane just because they hold a contrary viewpoint... not to mention that political viewpoints probably differ by 25%...
What's even better or worse is that even when its ripe for a 3rd party or alternate voice; less folks are willing to participate in this democracy we call America. I don't know why but I always am glad to sign anything folks put in my face to get on the California ballot because I support the democratic process. This year I had no third party candidates on my ballot for any of the state level seats.
Anyway, another random question. Do you guys think America is immune from the ehtnic cleansing that has occurred recently in places like Rwanda? It's hard to stop the mob. I think this is some of the ugliness that others are warning about. I'm not even sure I like talking about the political figure cleansing that some here have also advocated.
Oh well, I'm off to burn my car so no mob can get the satisfaction...
Just watching Charlie Rose, mostly noise, but there did seem to be an (unwanted) but possibly emerging realization of the mis-allocation of capital, which would be a useful discussion in the MSM (CR, Mish, and others, as we all know have been on this for a long time).
But then, the inevitable attack on speculators. My long-winded point is this: at what point do we see the speculators for what they really are - maggots and fungi. Not in any negative sense; they provide a useful function, that of turning the rotten material into something useful. I spent some time (trivial in comparison to the sisters) at the home for the dying in Calcutta, and maggots were not removed from the wounds. They were useful cleansers. Easy targets to be sure, but when I see speculators, I see a system that has a lot of rotten flesh, symptoms not causes.
Pearl Buck has a book, "How it Happened," in which she interviews an ethnic German and later imprisoned survivor of the holocaust; in that account speculators (many of whom were Jewish) were similarly viewed as causes, not symptoms of a much deeper economic problem.
OK, random, but I didn't get my fill of Bank Failure Friday.
"I've got a fever, and the only cure is...more bank failures"
In the Army, we used to call the worthless "oxygen thieves". Apply the term as you see fit. (I doubt you'd be anywhere near the head of the line.)
DCRogers | 11.14.08 - 10:59 pm | #
But one can aspire.
dryfly: One can also inspire and expire.
Gee I wonder (why) we made such half-hearted attempts to push a Yuan devaluation.
why would you think that we advocated a dollar devaluation, or Yaun appreciation, approach?
you've got ass backwards. pissed in cali?
RE: Video of Peter Schiff versus clown co., great video. Art Laffer, Mike Norman, Goldilocks, Ben Stein... the rest.... ALL OF YOU WERE SO BLOODY WRONG... zero credibility left, all of them. I wouldn't be surprised to see clowns on infomercials advertising new fruit drinks at 1:00 am as nobody will listen to their financial advice anymore. Ben Stein, stick to comedy... Art, you should've hanged up the books when Reagan left office.
@psychodave
Thanks for the kind thoughts.
First, you can teach a horse how to play blackjack. It's only a matter of the voltage level on your stun gun.
Second, in reference to acting quickly. To use the coyote metaphor, Wile E. Coyote has gone off the cliff and now realizes that he's falling. He's been hitting small outcrops as he drops, which has been slowing him down somewhat. At the moment, he's landed on an outcrop, which is crumbling fast.
Moral: The powers that be had better put in some pitons, fast.
I'm looking at data that is absolutely terrifying. Some of it is here, some of it is my own data. I don't think the powers that be, nor the main stream analysts, have any idea how quickly the situation is deteriorating.
Does that answer your question?
@Anonymous 11:45 - yes, wiki.cgi.
ic4mg.com/wiki.cgi
Posting is now open to all at the Investors Collaborating for Mutual Gain forum, ic4mg.com , as well (click on my Homepage link below).
I will try to integrate the forum and Wiki onto one unified page within the next couple of days.
I'm looking at data that is absolutely terrifying. Some of it is here, some of it is my own data. I don't think the powers that be, nor the main stream analysts, have any idea how quickly the situation is deteriorating.
My anacdotals confirm your data.
I'm looking at data that is absolutely terrifying. Some of it is here, some of it is my own data. I don't think the powers that be, nor the main stream analysts, have any idea how quickly the situation is deteriorating.
my anecdotals confirm your data, as well.
when a hole is this deep.
you must have pitons, if just to get out of the pit.
Just went back over this thread. Now I realize why nobody's posting...sigh.
OK, NEW SLGAM!
Come to my website! I'll spout hatred, give you investment tips, and spout more hatred! YOU CAN"T LOSE!
"Does that answer your question?"
mp | 11.15.08 - 12:32 am
Don't expect too much of me. It took me months to figure out the simple solution you were calling for since January, to wit: those holding the toxic waste better come clean on what they've got, or the authorities should force the issue (e.g. force them to sell 5% of holdings so we'd have a firm market value to mark to).
I've got no idea what would be good pitons yet. I never thought dumping the banks' bad assets into a Super SIV funded by U.S. loans was a good idea.
Agree that the situation is deteriorating, but do not expect the financial markets to reflect it for some months.
All I know for sure is that the scariest part is the U.S. bond market, and not just treasuries. To paraphrase Wm. J. Clinton, "its the dollar, stupid!"
If I could set up an ACH or wire xfer of all my investable assets into one of them Sparkasse right now, I'd do it. Wish I knew how.
Norka West, excellent post! Given your position on cramdowns (which I also agree with), what do you think about the CDS bogeyman and how we should deal with that?
Doc at the Radar Station
Norka's CDS Plan:
Turns out that Elhanan is the director of the Institutions, Organizations, an d growth committee at CIFAR - Canadian Institute for Advanced Research. A colder version of Santa Fe Institute.
In addition to a full load at Harvard, and a 20 foot long list of other affiliations and activities?
Per their website, they study "what makes some countries rich and others poor." Well, well, looks like Elhanan is the go to guy for our little predicament.
Further reading: CIFAR
What we do / Research / Institutions / Organizations & Growth
"My anacdotals confirm your data."
Dude, this is a family-friendly site; take your potty mouth somewhere else.
thanks weather helm, did I hallucinate Cheech and Chong on Bloomberg?
@psychodave
I'm not convinced that a Sparkasse is a good personal solution. If you're in Europe, different story.
Frankly, I like to be close to my money, unless the situation dictates otherwise.
Close is nice because you can, if necessary, kneecap the bank manager who says you can't have your money.
Weather Helm: Its been a while, or else I haven't been paying attention.
Welcome back to the playground.
"kneecap the bank manager who says you can't have your money."
mp | 11.15.08 - 12:51 am | #
LOL.
Re: Just the investable assets.
Combination of personal talents and minimal consumption can keep me going where I live just fine. Georgia's the first place I've ever been I want to stay in. FDR also felt that way. The only home he ever bought is at Warm Springs.
Thanks for responding.
Now, thanks to dryfly's brief appearance, if only Pavel would show up.
Oh I've been around here and there. It's always fun to drop in and read the ramblings of some of the freaks that show up here in the evenings.
"The only home he ever bought is at Warm Springs."
Actually visited there several times. I'll never forget the small chalkboard in the kitchen where the cook wrote the day's menu. Last entry was the day FDR died.
HD must be the latter day Levitz with inventory numbers freighted into EPS. Wonder how they'll navigate the pipeline break.
Russia and EU attempt to outflank US on G20 global finance revolution
Russia and EU attempt to outflank US on G20 global finance revolution - Times Online
"Russia's financial, technical and economic proposals are of singular quality and they are very close to the European proposals," Mr Sarkozy said.
"I am delighted to know that there is a determination on behalf of the Russian Federation to ensure that something strong comes out of the Washington summit. This should not be a summit held without any positive outcome."
...
Looking beyond the remaining weeks of the presidency of Mr Bush, he added: "We need a plan of action. We need to insist on having a fully-fledged agenda and reaching very serious decisions. The positions of Russia and the EU on overcoming the global economic crisis are very close.
"We are not going to create a new Bretton Woods in Washington but we need to make a very serious step in this direction and I am very supportive of the idea of holding another summit after Washington without any serious delays."
Close is nice because you can, if necessary, kneecap the bank manager who says you can't have your money.
If you can't get it in cash, take it in kind.
mp,
How long before CB turns away from the dollar again?
tj, I don't know, but it may be very soon. Who can say in this environment?
Norka, I liked your plan and copied it into the wiki with attribution and a link back to this thread. I hope that meets with your blessing, but if not... let me know and I'll tear it out (if you don't do it first!).
<a href = "http://ic4mg.com/wiki.cgi>ic4mg.com/wiki.cgi
This is almost as timely as the japanese drumming:
"How To Irritate People"
YouTube - John Cleese - How to Irritate People - Airplane Sketch
"We are not going to create a new Bretton Woods in Washington but we need to make a very serious step in this direction "
And they will.
My Charlie Rose observations:
"We are all Keynesian now." Steven Pearlstein
"We're all greedy dumbshits." Shnaps
Steve Pearlstein has seen 'Idiocracy' multiple times.
Amity Shlaes reads CR on the regular.
Jeffrey Sachs bores me to shit.
February seems to be the next "momment in time"....
allow the Obamas to settle into the Whitehouse as the global scramble ensues....
Am I a chump? LOL!!
"And they will."
mp | 11.15.08 - 1:02 am
Does this count as outsourcing our financial system?
mp,
No doubt. We're beyond "subprime nation" right now; gotta be a major dislocation coming the pike.
If DC only had a clue as the fire they're playing with; you caught the Whitehead post yesterday, right?
crispy and cole,
are you for the record, oyster or sausage.
on topic.
New Bretton Woods? Sounds like MAD, the modern finance version.
Im deteriorating,
where's elvis?
How long before CB turns away from the dollar again?
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear)
Two months before we hear about it.
It will be like this Spring and Summer. We'll know that something is up because some part of the financial system is coming unglued. It will smell like a huge liquidity squeeze, but no one (not even nemo) will be be able to spot the source of the odor in real-time.
Once it is over, everyone will carry out their dead and wounded investments and slap their heads saying, "Why didn't I see it. It was so obvious."
LOL!!
The cash-carry video "are you a chump" is all over the net...I kind of feel sorry for the guy, he is carrying the water for that crook Paulson and getting taken to the woodshed.
@tj
Yeah, I saw the Whitehead piece and agree with it. Completely.
People had best get busy.
And they will.
Yep. The Paulson apology today
"If DC only had a clue as the fire they're playing with;"
~~~~~~~
paulson and company do not care. they are bailing out their buddies everybody else be damned ...
Bair told Paulson where to go ... she knows the score but there is little she can do. All Bush can say is ooops !
Bretton Woods 2 this ain't.
Not with G1's interregnum.
There will be more productive summits at the Holiday Inn Express in Bowling Green, KY this weekend.
c&c for 1% of the $290 Billion spent so far I will go on TV all day for a full week and anyone who cares to call me a chump is welcome to do so...Think KashKari is owed a favor or two?
Just finished watching CR's "Video of the Day," where Peter Schiff is skewered by the cognoscenti.
Unfortunately, people being what they are, they'll remember the "skewered" outcast part, and not the prescience of his views.
Bailing out buddies? If the dollar dies, that'll be akin to jumping off the Titanic onto the Lusitania.
My post got truncated... My point was that with the statement:
"We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here"
the U.S. has signaled to any interested observer the real political trouble it is in. This is going to have geopolitical implications and if not handled correctly will lead to different alignments. The political consequences are tremendously underestimated in the U.S. at this time.
A new BW will not be very U.S. and dollar reserve currency friendly.
Weather Helm: The Helm part I get, I think.. but what about "Weather"?
"Bretton Woods 2 this ain't."
Agree. But, all of the important conversations will be off the record and in the background, not on the agenda.
There will be heavy lobbying off camera for some changes.
Make no mistake, G1 may be there blowing things off, but G19-G20 are PISSED.
psychodave writes:
"And they will."
mp | 11.15.08 - 1:02 am
Does this count as outsourcing our financial system?
psychodave | 11.15.08 - 1:04 am | #
It probably means we will never again be able to borrow - as a nation - in the same currency we 'control'.
Shouldn't it be more like G-200 or so?
dryfly,
In a lot of ways that's a good thing.
Former realtor and principal who had sex with a student loses his real-whore license:
Bakersfield Bubble
Wisdom Seeker:
No problem, but which Plan? (the putting sheila in the closet plan, the mortgage jubilee plan or the CDS back-window plan.
I've been busy.
Everyone, have a good day, night, whatever.
"His thesis is simple: the trillions of dollars that the US has racked up in foreign trade deficits, which have been distributed around the planet, were multiplied 9X by fractional reserve banking, and it is this sum of quasi-money that is now collapsing."
But it's everywhere. All of a sudden I keep seeing each local job and business in my formerly fast growing SoCal desert area as having been invisibly perched atop a now crumbling 10X-20X-30X leveraged lending pyramid.
see you guys tommorow...
Shouldn't it be more like G-200 or so?
Why not the G201! Why must US and A discriminate glorious nation of Kazahkstan?
Chenqui, mp!
Great hits from the past:
The area of concern: so-called rapid amortization.
Buried in Countrywides $831 million fourth quarter write-down of residual interests, Moodys said, was a $704 million charge related to rapid amortization on home equity line securitizations.
Moodys characterized this loss component as new, and one that may impact other mortgage operations with large HELOC securitization exposure
If the dollar dies, that'll be akin to jumping off the Titanic onto the Lusitania.
~~~
hard assets on the cheap ... Utilities, banks, you name it will be sold at fire sale prices ... The US isn't going away, it will just have new owners.
UB:
Weather helm is the tendency of sailboats to move towards the source of wind, creating an unbalanced helm that requires pulling the tiller windward to counteract the effect. You can also adjust your jib so the mainsail and jib are better balanced. This is useful when you have rudder and helm problems. You don't need a rudder to control a sailboat, but it is easier.
"It probably means we will never again be able to borrow - as a nation - in the same currency we 'control'."
dryfly | 11.15.08 - 1:19 am
So, when Cheney said the American Standard of Living is non-negotiable, he was wrong?
hoocoodanode!
"In a lot of ways that's a good thing."
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 11.15.08 - 1:20 am
The only "good" coming out of this is the reinforcement that it turns out there are consequences for bad actions after all. The rest of it is pretty damn bad. Think Russia's accelerating decline in male life expectancy and rise in infant mortality, to give two simple examples.
Moodys characterized this loss component as new, and one that may impact other mortgage operations with large HELOC securitization exposure
Kona Time Machine
Watch what you are saying. Wells Fargo is my bank. You're scaring me.
psychodave,
By "good thing" I mean a government that lives within it's means. Getting there will be fun, no doubt.
Roger "lives within its means" tj.
Signing off
Thanks for the correction. (damn).
G'nite!
It probably means we will never again be able to borrow - as a nation - in the same currency we 'control'.
It's been several generations since anyone had to deal with that - I'm pretty confident the repercussions have not sunk in. When Joe Plumber was buying up every consumer gadshit floating in on a boat there was at least the threat of MAD to keep things going - but if we're shrinking imports the way it appears we are we just lost our only defensive weapon.
I think we'll know by Valentine's Day whether Obama is facing reality or looking for a way to postpone it like his predecessors.
@Norka - I borrowed the bankruptcy reform / cramdowns / fix the mortgage mess bit this time, but I might come back for seconds after I digest the first meal.
FWIW, I'm starting to worry about WFC again, but I won't execute Stage 1 of my WFC-crisis plan until the share price is below 20. BAC has already activated my crisis response (more than once) and I'm darned glad I don't bank with C!
BTW, think of how many banks could be saved if someone with balls broke up JPM and C ("too big to fail is too big to bail - and too big to exist without systemic risk") and spread their deposits over a few thousand smaller banks...
Comrade Bear, a government that lives within its means is not very reassuring. If the United States is going into a decline, then why not go out with a bang? Lets go for the natural resources of every country that has no nuclear weapons. Lets see the rest of the world try to ignore us when we have them by the balls. Maybe Bush can be the last president before the empire begins. The Republic is dead. Long live the Empire.
Lets go for the natural resources of every country that has no nuclear weapons
At the risk of pointing out the obvious, those resources are also desired by every other country WITH nuclear weapons.
Norka is correct. "Weather helm" is the tendency of a given sailboat to steer toward the wind direction (where it appears to be coming from) on its own.
Most sailboats are designed or trimmed for some (perhaps slight) degree of weather helm. It's a more stable condition for a boat than its opposite condition, lee helm. A boat with lee helm is harder to control, especially for novices.
I never knew, never cared, and still don't give a crap:
Principal Payments
The amount of principal paid on the notes on a payment date will depend on whether the payment date occurs during the revolving period or the rapid amortization period, whether the step-down date has occurred, whether a step-down test has been satisfied or whether an excess spread step-up event has occurred.
Generally, with respect to any due period during the revolving period, principal collections on the mortgage loans will be applied first to purchase additional balances for the issuing entity and second, to the extent of any remaining available principal collections, to pay principal of the notes on the related payment date to the extent required to create or maintain the required level of overcollateralization.
Any remaining principal collections will be paid to the owner of the transferor interest, which will initially be the seller.
If the amount of principal collections on the mortgage loans during a due period is insufficient to purchase all of the additional balances for the issuing entity, the owner of the transferor interest will be obligated to advance funds to the issuing entity to purchase the additional balances that were not funded out of principal collections on the mortgage loans.
With respect to any due period during the rapid amortization period, 100% of principal collections will be applied to pay principal on the notes.
6, they don't have the lift capacity or the aircraft carriers to take over nearly as many countries. besides we have bases in or next to half the countries in the world.
If the United States is going into a decline, then why not go out with a bang?
That's actually a very real fear of mine.
A boat with lee helm is harder to control,
Okay, but why did you change from Lee to Weather a few month's ago?
...and Paulson proved that neither the threat of bazooka nor their use is enough to prevent conflagrations.
...they don't have the lift capacity or the aircraft carriers to take over nearly as many countries.
They don't need aircraft carriers - they have nukes and missiles with which to fling them.
Nuke threats - implicit or explicit - cut both ways, amigo.
Bear, it is scary. it also seems to be a perfectly viable possibility. i am not sure how i feel about it given the other possible options before us.
DCRogers(Most Excellent Countrywide Shill) writes:
A shout-out for FireFox users to try "CR Companion". Awesome.
(But if another user cut-and-pastes a comment from me with (Unrated) still showing after my name, I'm going to be very (Irritated) with you! Throw me a bone, damn it!)
Done and done.
"Okay, but why did you change from Lee to Weather a few month's ago?"
Well, it was a lot more than a few months ago, it was more than a year ago.
Second, weather helm is something that looks to the future. Lee helm is "backwards looking".
Lee helm can potentially end you up floundering, capsized, or with a boom cracking the back of someone's skull.
Finally, I did announce at the time I was changing helm from lee to weather.
I think the times call for "Matt Helm".
6, that isn't how it works. you need to have conventional means to make a claim on a country and its resources... at least enough to overpower its military and decapitate it. Nuclear weapons are only a credible threat/weapon when your mainland is under threat.
Ub,
How goes it?
Hi Kona. Okay. You? I've been out among the first lifers trying to get a sense of what's really going on.
Bair wants to help home owners and Paulson wants to help his friends...
The two aims aren't mutually exclusive. Hank's friends do own homes. I heard Cash & Carry say on TV today that Hank wanted to help homeowners.
The Real Estalker: Lloyd Blankfein Selling Sagaponack House
You may kiss my tarnished Harvard ring.
Thanks for all the info on Helm. It's always best to get the poop straight from the Captain's pipe.
Weather helm:
should I describe the pleasures of a downwind broach or is that so on point that it would give everyone nightmares?
mp - they'll have a go at steps to a new BW, but will fk it up bigtime. This will make the little lovers' tiff over Iraq look like a mild tete a tete over morning kornies and who's making the coffee.
The papering over team is going to be busier than a one-armed paper-hanger. On meth.
CC
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) writes:
dryfly,
In a lot of ways that's a good thing.
Comrade Bear (tj & the bear) | 11.15.08 - 1:20 am | #
Yup. Won't hear me complain. It will force us to live BETTER.
Now, about those nuclear missiles...
We now have portable deathrays, and I've seen videos of what are purported to be energy beams shooting down short range missiles in flight.
Could we be at the point where we have the ability to shoot down anything, in any quanities?
CC, humor a novice. How would a new BW work?
Lord Blankfien
I didn't know $14 million mansions were tarped.
Time to raise money for the coming going out of business sale for the United States ...
Comrade Counterpointe
will Bush and Sarkozy have to be separated ?