Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 17 members and 151 guests online.
Pig?
Mortgage pig to the rescue!
Love the pig
Also been thirsting for a new post
So how do folks who read CR keep their spirits up during this storm of a lifetime? How do folks wake up, and go off an earn a living, while knowing that the government is working hard to piss it all away?
Other than Reading CR and Mish and writing "Nemo", of course....
Extending the trend since '06, it looks like we may get to pre'05 levels by 2012.
I am trying to free Jeff Skilling. He was not as crooked as the current crooks.
Old McPaulson had a TARP, e-i-e-i-o
Anyone have an estimate on the limit of how many bankruptcies courts could process in a given day/month?
There certainly should be a large enough backlog to keep the court system at capacity for a measurable period
Expediting the bankruptcy process is a good idea. I'll be watching for announcements come January
That's a pretty impressive rise in BKs recently, particularly given the new law. Since I have never seen this charted before, I had no idea how massive the rush leading up to the change in BK law in 2005. I remember hearing the numbers were high, but this chart really drives it home. Thanks, CR.
I wish the chart showed the run-up to the 1990s, as I recall a lot of trouble in those times.
That's probably a false low after 2005, though, since BKs were probably borrowed from the future in the run-up to the law changing...
Yea!! CR's alive.
Gainas - I am trying to free Jeff Skilling.
I'm trying to contact Ken Lay via the ouija board.
dreadlord76,
Always Look On The Bright Side of Life
What A Wonderful World
stuff like that will always make me happy
The bankruptcy reform act passed a few years ago means that if you are in the top half of income earners in your state, you are limited to Chapter 13 bankruptcy, not Chapter 7. Chapter 13 is a much bigger pain in the neck for the filer than Chapter 7. With Chapter 13 you have to pay all of your disposable income over a 3-5 year period.
The main problem I have with the bankruptcy reform act is that it didn't exempt medical debt. I don't think the law should treat a guy who went bankrupt caring for a sick kid the same as it treats someone who ran up a bunch of debt on 5 credit cards. Yet it does. Maybe the Dems can change that under Obama.
Re: Pulling the comments. I think the comments can be a very valuable resource and a tremendous addition to the blog (thanks for all the great comments). Unfortunately - at times - the comments have really gone down hill. I don't have the time to moderate the comments, and Haloscan/JS-Kit is slow to help with some new tools.
I'm getting close to pulling the plug on the comments until I find another solution (perhaps with registration). I hate to do this - but I'm receiving numerous complaints daily about the comments.
Tanta has told me she has stopped reading the comments completely (yes, she is not feeling well, but she was trying to read the comments). Very sad.
Please show some restraint.
Best to all.
"So how do folks who read CR keep their spirits up during this storm of a lifetime? How do folks wake up, and go off an earn a living, while knowing that the government is working hard to piss it all away?"
I have a feeling that antidepressants may be contributing to the problem. Don't have the statistics, but all reports indicate that huge numbers of people are on psychoactive drugs that could very well be letting them go about their days as if everything is ok, while, if they weren't medicated, they might see things are much much worse.
You know, the timing of that personal bankruptcy legislation several years prior seems awfully suspicious right about now. Were we intended to be feudal debt serfs?
I'd be OK with registration. Doesn't bother me a bit. A small price to pay to return to adult conversatio
CalculatedRisk,
Is it an option to use the default(?) blogspot comments and simply require users to be logged in. Ideally the low barriers to posting can bring good comments, but I believe you have a strong enough readership to retain good comments.
Registration is a good interim step.
I think the draconian post 2005 structure is the only thing keeping the numbers to a dull roar. If you figure out where you would be by trying to hold on vs. starting over, I think most would find that you would be better off in five years by going BK now. Funny though, mom goes BK on 60K unsecured last year and the creditors get nada. Three months later, open a checking account and applies for overdraft figuring she will get denied. Guy at the bank shows her the FICO with the BK on it, and she was a 680. $1000 overdraft line and a $1000 credit card on the spot. Three months later.
Why am I still paying my bills?
Split the blog in two? Keep the same original post, but have one with registration and one freewheeling, like a CR Lite.
BK law is a stain on Biden's resume. He was seemingly a tool of the credit card giants, time for him to undo this evil act.
CR - registration which can be revoked is a good idea, especially given the most commenters use permanent aliases
I registered for the draft once. I registered to vote once. Never again!
If you must pull the plug on comments I will understand. Regretable.
I am guilty of too many O/T posts - I will watch my comments.
Unfortunatly there is no way to get granular w/ the the data - personal bk for buiness reasons vs bk for a family because of debt servicing.
My guess is we will see a swell (huge) and then an ebb. In Q1 I might guess a 200 to 300 percent increase and then tapering from there. The reasons are purely psychological...folks reach a point of "we have to move on" and this might happen right after the Christmas season. (Kinda like house sales - lets buy before the school year stars so we can get settled so you get a Fall spike in house sales). Now, however it will be "okay christmas is over we have to move on and our best option is bk". Divorce rates are a good measure of family stress btw. We saw a huge increase in divorce rates in the 70s oil crisis - then again some say it was because of womans lib stuff...who knows.
Please show some restraint.
Best to all.
Calculated Risk
(This might actually count as a spam comment still I'm compelled)
Yes sir. I've been restraining from chatty banter and encourage others to do the same. Granted I don't think much of what I read here is worthless...
None the less.... CR thanks for providing the bar, temple, help-group, church, school and clean well lighted place to congregate...
Best regards,
~n
...........
People are going to get pretty hungry. We don't even start serving free lunches until January 20th.
"I'm trying to contact Ken Lay via the ouija board."
you may wanna try pointing it towards south america...
"I'm trying to contact Ken Lay via the ouija board.
rps "
Ha! You really think he's dead. Exhume the body and do some DNA analysis. I am certain some homeless bum got whacked and stuffed in the coffin while kenny-boy is golfing on some tropical island.
infrequent poster, frequent reader also is ok with registration.
CR
Many thanks to you and Tanta, and best wishes to Tanta, as always.
I am sorry that problems here on haloscan take up your time.
Trolls by their nature will not show restraint, but we all can show restraint by ignoring them - i.e., don't respond to them or complain about them.
Registration would not bother me. Don't know how effective it would be, nor how much of a pain it would be for CR.
Most posters here make good faith contributions, show good humor, and don't engage in personal attacks. Many folks (and creatures like Conjure) are extremely generous in sharing knowledge. The problems are at the margins.
small interesting thought:
Would bankruptcy filings as a % of GDP be interesting? (eg lawyer fees, court costs)
I mention this partially because I think the more stringent bankruptcy rules are also most expensive to process
*...rules are more expensive...
ot a frequent poster (though lurking has taught me a lot the past few months), but I've no issue with registration, as it's SOP for so many places online.
Lets all pray hard that Oprah's home doesn't burn down or we will never hear the end of it.
Montecito, California - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Morocco Bama,
IMHO, the bankruptcy law was lobbied by the cc bank entities to enslave the serfs into perpetuity. The leg-irons of high-interest usury debt loaded cards legislation was in the best interests of the banks. BUT,
the banks in their self-serving short term greedy alphabet soup, fee enhanced mortgage instruments never in their wildest dreams thought the little people would walk from their debt-laden homes. The banks forgot how important a 20% downpayment of hard earned money keeps people paying their mortgages. The world is flooded with bankruptcies of every entity; people, corporations, banks, retail, automakers, cities, states, governments.....
Please show some restraint.
Do you really think that is going to work with these guys...
http://thumbsnap.com/v/3jj9Yarc.jpg
Uncle Billy Can't Spare A Dime,
I like the idea of two comments sections. One would be analytical. the other "open bar."
--
11th Year of: It is the debt, Stupid!
Evildoers Greenspan, Bush and Bernanke were PUSHING DEBT On PURPOSE!
Dopes are very slow to recognize.
Evil comes in many forms and in America it took the financial form.
Jas
rps: I think it makes sense. CR, if you create the "Lite" comment section, it will have more credibility than if someone random just opens one up. At least this way if we crack jokes in the main section, they have to be on topic and funny.
@ Dr Strangemoney,
Fundamental error of classification.
The problem is trolls, not brain-eating zombies! Duh?
I enjoyed the image anyway. Thanks.
Had a very good boss once and we were talking about how to motivate the staff. I was suggesting a competitive contest which he countered with, 'Most of the time prople want to the right thing. YOu just have to let them know what that is.'
So in that spirit, CR, what do you want the comments section to be??
uhhhhh. ".. people want to do the right thing ..."
apologies for the typo
RPS:
Yes the relaxation of downpayment reqs for mortgages will probably go down as one of the greatest acts of foot-shooting in modern history.
And the means test is only going to slow things down a little bit. Once the downturn really gets going, most unemployed will pass it anyway and still others will hide assets to make sure they do.
When 1 in 10 of your neighbors is bankrupt, there's a stigma. When 1 in 10 of your neighbors isn't bankrupt, its a way of life. People will start refusing to work and just go BK instead.
Read up on the Mexican debtor revolts to get an idea of whats coming.
So how do folks who read CR keep their spirits up during this storm of a lifetime? How do folks wake up, and go off an earn a living, while knowing that the government is working hard to piss it all away?
Other than Reading CR and Mish and writing "Nemo", of course....
dreadlord76 | 11.15.08 - 7:58 pm | #
Some of us are unemployed and drink a lot...
@FFDIC
some of us are going to have a lot more company soon.
sigh.....
me? I'm seriously contemplating very early retirement while my pension still exists. On the other hand, as unemployment goes up, my job is more valuable. Chances are i'll spend a bunch of years not making up my mind.
Dufus,
I like prople better...
The BK laws will be adjusted to reflect the new reality.
The graph shows just how draconian the 2005 BAPCA "reform" is. Bankruptcy was made more difficult and more expensive. Elizabeth Warren has done some very good research and most personal bankruptcies ARE the result of medical expenses.
This law was not just about personal bankruptcy though, the commercial changes are causing most large companies that try to reorganize to liquidate instead. Now with DIP (debtor in process) lending frozen, reorganizing under the commercial provisions is even more unlikely.
Those who have called for GM to go Chapter 11 need to realize that these changes will result in the destruction of GM and its suppliers should they be foolish enough to try it.
Registration would be OK. I don't comment, but I've learned a lot from the posts and the comments. I'd hate to see an end to the comments.
GOOD! Bankrupts, like felons, should not be allowed to vote until they have paid their creditors back.
We do not need ex-cons and bankrupts
electing our political leaders.
Those who have called for GM to go Chapter 11 need to realize that these changes will result in the destruction of GM and its suppliers should they be foolish enough to try it.
Why@ ZIRP
A very important point that I was reading about this morning, link here:
The New Republic
i have friends that walked away from their house and stopped paying their student loans. one has a past bk. neither one has any form of savings nor any intention to start saving. they are both "industry" people. that's vegas talk for bartender or server. any additional expense imposed on them would be a catastrophe. this seems to be a very common predicament in a sizable percentage of the population here in vegas.
where's the barchart that shows "percentage of people one car repair away (or equivalent unexpected expense) from not being able to buy anything?"
CR,
PLEASE don't let Sheila Bair moderate the comments. Freedom of Speech is our most valuable FREEDOM!
sneering -- you can't walk away from a student loan, or discharge it in bankruptcy. You can only pay or die
CR,
Thanks for the video of the day. That is truly an incredible display of rightousness and stupidity. Everyone in those videos laughing and mocking Schiff should be publically humiliated.
I just wonder how many of these BKs are declared by illegals who were given credit cards and lines of credit with no SS#'s, no documentation, and no credit history? Hmmm... BoA used to openly advertise accounts and credit cards for resident aliens with ITIN numbers. Now BoA is getting bailed out with your tax dollars.
LOVE the idea of dual comments.I've never ran across any site that has that.Don't know how hard it would be to set up, but if doable could lead to many other sites doing it.A bold new concept.Of course in 6 months everyone will be living in a cave or box(YOU'VE GOT A BOX!) eating grubs and bugs(YOU'VE GOT GRUBS AND BUGS!).
My $0.02:
The #1 thing that will improve the comments is for people not to respond to obvious and/or persistent trolls. It's tempting, but please refrain or install a filter. Also, try not to encourage the local cranks to repeat themselves yet again.
While I enjoy the zingers of the very funny people who comment here, I think they should back off to just a few per thread.
A daily free-fire open thread (or two - AM and PM) remains a good idea.
Finally, I prefer that comments remain on Haloscan and unregistered. Haloscan is the worst commenting system except for all of the others (aside from those on big self-manage sites).
comrade dufus - i don't audit the dudes bank account but he told me that he stopped paying it.
I like the idea of the two comment sections. I also wouldn't mind registering if need be so long as you don't ask for a credit card, I cut mine up years ago.
sneering - understood. But he will eventually have to pay it. Or live totally underground economically
Some recent solid and sobering comments from London Banker that add clarity to our financial dilemmas.
Systemic Risk, Contagion and Trade Finance - Back to the Bad Old Days
The Fed doubles its balance sheet - above $2 trillion in just 5 weeks
Byways and Tribal Capitalism
"Trolls by their nature will not show restraint, but we all can show restraint by ignoring them - i.e., don't respond to them or complain about them."
Trolls=people with an unpopular opinion protected by the 1st Amendment to the Constitution, or have you forgotten the purpose of that Amendment? Ban unpopular opinion and you embrace fascism.
comrade dufus - "Or live totally underground economically"... no sweat. he works for cash slinging drinks at video poker junkies in a dark, smoke filled, "locals" bar.
sneering - we all make our own choices I guess
Angry Bear hath crystal ball re/the big 3:
1) Big parts suppliers collapse for lack of credit
2) Some or all of Big 3 cannot manufacture
3) Big 3 file Chapter 1
In the past the Big 3 would advance cash to keep the suppliers in business, but that is unlikely now."
The big 3 are only interested in profit making. Auto research and development expired 75yrs ago. We drive our great grandfather's fossil fuel combustible engines cars.
Monopolies are the death of R&D.
Student Debt to Fed. govt, or Unpaid Taxes: They can and will garnish your salary, among other attrocities they can perpetrate.
For the ignorant, to file for personal bankruptcy one must have a social security number.
Illegals can't file for bankruptcy, people who are members of the underground economy don't declare bankruptcy.
Regarding comments...I love information,but I LIVE for humor and snark.Off to watch Ricky Gervais's HBO special right now.
this comment in the article killed me:
Because of our Christian background, it didnt feel right,
Yup... b/c all of us non-Christians just run up huge debts and walk away.
I wonder how all of the 'prosperity gospel' mega churches will do during all of this...
question for anyone that feels like they might have an answer:
when did we go from responsible use of credit to irresponsible use of credit?
were we cool in 1988 but then got out of hand in 1992? when did we cross the line? the 4000sq ft. mcmansion marked the top, but what marked the beginning?
From the last topic...
Silicon Valley has produced net/net far more than Washington or Wall Street. Both seem like societal parasites to me.
Can you imagine the return on $700B of reasonably intelligent investments?
It's the creativity stupid...
sneering nihilist writes:
question for anyone that feels like they might have an answer:
when did we go from responsible use of credit to irresponsible use of credit?
were we cool in 1988 but then got out of hand in 1992? when did we cross the line? the 4000sq ft. mcmansion marked the top, but what marked the beginning?
sneering nihilist | 11.15.08 - 9:09 pm | #
I don't have a precise answer for you as to the year, but there is a strong correlation between the huge increase in capital inflows from abroad (initially Japan) that began in the mid 1990's and the inflationary bubbles that began to appear in the US. Personal overuse of credit lines didn't take off until about 2002 and spurred the "recovery".
The main problem I have with the bankruptcy reform act is that it didn't exempt medical debt. I don't think the law should treat a guy who went bankrupt caring for a sick kid the same as it treats someone who ran up a bunch of debt on 5 credit cards.
I agree, though the existence of medical debt is really a reflection of our lousy healthcare non-system.
OK, the Guatamalan or Honduran immigrant cannot file for 'bankruptcy'.
Big Deal. I live in a world of fake identities and new accounts.
Mr.Immigrant comes to America with many identities. We know him not. He says he is this but he maybe that. We have only his personal testimony to go by if he comes from Honduras or etc.
I have over $35million in such ID problems to deal with. It is job security but it is a real problem.
The harder times get the more emotion will come out in the comments.
The comments will worsen just as they did before the elections. Other than canceling the comments, which
will be detrimental to the site patronage, there is no easy answer.
The diversity of comments is outstanding. I can scan a 300 comment thread in a few minutes. Of course I ignore posters who have proven to be of little value. Simple solution is to ignore the trolls. Really, is it that hard?
DK, Satan, Lucifer, Sperm Shack et al are not the problem, An overdeveloped sense of outrage and entitlement might be. DK harps about the first amendment but he/she has a legitimate right to post about his disgruntlement. Just ignore him.
Sorry CR but I read the comments and glance at the headlines.
Tim, I think she only meant that she has been taught a strong ethical code. That's not much different from Judaism.
As to the ethics of creditcardcos. they have been canceling unused cards and lowering people's limits anon. The article suggested that recent BKs are happening because people can't fall back on plastic like they did in the past.
Also keep in mind that the securitization market for unsecured debt has shut so the lenders have less money to lend themselves.
Oh my
Elizabeth Warren is a very interesting scholar. I remember seeing her in the movie Maxed Out. Fascinating movie, even if it does border on polemic at times.
She is a contributor on this blog, which has some interesting discussion about consumer credit and related topics:
Credit Slips
This is an economics blog, how about a yearly fee to make more than 2 comments a day. $25 would keep the trolls away and also send some love to CR and Tanta. Reading the blog would remain free, of course.
Please wtf is up with "Nemo", Pig" etc.???
He took out a student loan to be a bartender?
What's a republic?
some sites enlist webmasters to keep the comments worthwhile. Webmasters are chosen from the willing and from those who the site owner invites.
...whom the site owner invites. Sorry, should have gone to college.
Mel writes:
This is an economics blog, how about a yearly fee to make more than 2 comments a day. $25 would keep the trolls away and also send some love to CR and Tanta. Reading the blog would remain free, of course.
Mel | 11.15.08 - 9:20 pm | #
Good suggestion
zirp - thanks for the reply. a breakdown of these numbers by state/county would be interesting. 2002(not to put too much emphasis on a hard date) does make a lot of sense.
comrade kidbuck writes:
He took out a student loan to be a bartender?
no. he just makes more money and has better job security bartending.
I doubt registration will make a difference without constant site administration. The best policy is to eliminate the comments. The high quality of CR's posts will generate the same audience.
That said, it's unfortunate that the first instinct of many commenters is more regulation, new programs designed for regulation, and even baroque forms of regulation. What we want is self-control, which is much better than regulation.
This is a great blog. If you don't like it, don't read it. In the newspaper world, if something bothers you, you write a letter to the editor. But you don't write a letter to the editor asking that someone else's letters-to-the-editor never be published again.
Wait until the Dems enact cram-down.
When we start encouraging everyone who is underwater to file with a special onetime bonus of writing off your credit card debt, this will be nothing. On the bright side, fraudulent appraisors will be back in the money.
I think cram-down is the point at which the world loses complete faith in America. A modern day Smoot Hawley.
I am abroad. Among intelligent financial people, there was much enthusiasm for Obama. But they have no inkling of the impending "cram-down" debate. If you explain it to them, they are appalled and concerned.
Registration.
Well, we discussed it a year ago, and agreed if things proceeded as we thought it would be inevitable.
So be. it.
I no longer worry about folks coming to take me away- I fully accept that I will never be important enough to bother with silencing.
The best part about living in America is that we continuously shift fortunes.
Today's bankrupt is tomorrow's Trump, again.
We are going to have express bk's soon.
There are too many for the current system.
Someday this war's gonna end...
It's too bad Haloscan doesn't have a function that would limit comments to a certain number (ie 50 per thread or suchlike). I think the consciousness of there being limited comment space would help responsible posters refrain from responding to trolls.
This is a great blog. If you don't like it, don't read it. In the newspaper world, if something bothers you, you write a letter to the editor. But you don't write a letter to the editor asking that someone else's letters-to-the-editor never be published again.
El Cliffo | Homepage | 11.15.08 - 9:34 pm | #
Excellent point.
How about some humor about WaMu
Wamu Graffiti | The Big Picture
This is a great blog.
Exactly.
I like it for it's economic emphasis and for it's real-time updates by CR and the commenters.
Discontinuing either of these would be to me a mistake and would draw much less traffic in my humble opinion.
As for dissenting opinions, the more people realize that you can't coerce or brow beat others to your 'opinion' the better.
You can't control others but you can and should control yourself.
I am abroad. Among intelligent financial people, there was much enthusiasm for Obama. But they have no inkling of the impending "cram-down" debate. If you explain it to them, they are appalled and concerned.
Worker | 11.15.08 - 9:37 pm | #
In some states here in years past, cram down of the mortgage of a primary residence WAS permitted in bankruptcy proceedings. The republic did not collapse and foreigners trusted us more then, in my humble opinion. Obama is not proposing anything revolutionary, such a shame, we could use a few revolutionary ideas.
I have to object to the NYT headline; " Downturn Drags More People Into Bankruptcy"
Trees don't jump out into the path of reckless drivers. Cliffs don't lure unsuspecting autos over the edge. Downturns don't "drag" debtors into insolvency.
Why@ZIRP
I agree with you again.
Cramdowns have been done on residential mortgages in the past without the world ending, and they have continued to be done with other debts.
Revising the bankruptcy laws is mild tea, which is good medicine if not a cure all.
Rob Dawg writes:
I have to object to the NYT headline; " Downturn Drags More People Into Bankruptcy"
Trees don't jump out into the path of reckless drivers. Cliffs don't lure unsuspecting autos over the edge. Downturns don't "drag" debtors into insolvency.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.15.08 - 9:46 pm | #
Very true, most of the time bankruptcy is the result of illness and insurance that is either insufficient or doesn't pay up due to some loophole conveniently found.
PeakVT writes:
My $0.02 ...
I would fully support PeakVT opinion.
For readers suggesting that the comments be eliminated, I don't understand the logic behind eliminating the comments because you do not like some of them. What is the difference between the comments not existing and your not clicking on the comments link?
Of course, CR should eliminate the comments if he is ashamed of or uncomfortable with what people say and does not want to be associated with them. Perhaps people just need to form a chat room elsewhere to discuss financial/economic news, if what they want is to preserve a true forum.
It is interesting to speculate where we would be today if you would trim the two bubbles off the charts (tech and credit/husing). Would we have simply had a normal cyclical recession to follow the 90s, then started back up again? If the answer if 'yes', you might conclude that the Fed is doing more harm than good.
I'd hate to see comments shut down. Registration would not bother me at all. Lots of other blogs use it.
My problem with cram-downs is that they would increase the risk premium beyond a reasonable amount. An unreasonable risk premium is not really good for anybody. Personally, I would like to have the option of borrowing money at reasonable rates in the future.
Please wtf is up with "Nemo", Pig" etc.???
Chris | 11.15.08 - 9:21 pm |
Nemo has an automated first comment - if you are ever first, you can "Nemo"
The Mortgage Pig is a trademark. The Pig is a sight to behold!
"Very true, most of the time bankruptcy is the result of illness and insurance that is either insufficient or doesn't pay up due to some loophole conveniently found."
Why@ ZIRP
A little bit of insurance regulation would go a long to fixing one of those problems. Insurance should be about risk pooling, not about crazy exclusions or loopholes. Of course, that would require reasonable and predictable courts of law, so it probably can't happen.
I like simple and clear explanations of what we face and what has happened. This is a good one. The effects of this crisis are not close to over as prices continue to drop. If all of California and Utah burns then maybe prices will drop slower, due to the lower inventory.
YouTube -
anyway you slice it, the founder of this medium is in control of the message stream and is clearly not happy with the output.
I find this similiar to the rise interest in sites such as Shadowstats, why does it even exist?
It exists because those viewing and processing, not only anecdotal experience, but also the main stream media, which includes the US and other Sovereign goverment propoganda are in a state of confusion.
I think the comments section should be free to be as out of control as possible.
but what do I know, Im just a useless eater.
sm_landlord writes:
My problem with cram-downs is that they would increase the risk premium beyond a reasonable amount. An unreasonable risk premium is not really good for anybody. Personally, I would like to have the option of borrowing money at reasonable rates in the future.
sm_landlord | Homepage | 11.15.08 - 9:57 pm | #
The cram downs in bankruptcy court will only be used by those who have a possibility of keeping their homes. Many of the underwater borrowers in non recourse states are much better off with ruthless default. That is what they will do, and that is going to be the driver for risk premiums. Cram downs are a good way to discourage irresponsible lending as Tanta has pointed out and should be enacted.
I wonder if this is really about CR getting flak from people whose opinions he cares about. I remember a time at the LA Times la land blog when everyone was laughing their hinies off at the Donald. He called up the editor and threatened to sue. The laughter took a while to die off, but it did die off -- don't remember any more posts referencing the Donald.
I would really enjoy some sort of oversight/registration on the comments. I don't mind differing opinions, as long as they are well thought out and add value to the conversation. The comments have degenerated to the point that they sound like something you might overhear on a middle school playground at times.
The site was much more enjoyable when everyone refrained from mindlessly commenting and just commented when they had something worth saying.
Going BK in my generation was considered an evil stain on one's character. It was a scarlet letter similar to being divorced in the 40's and 50's.
The current mores are simply an acceptance of a general decline in morality and an abbrogation of responsibility. Lack of personal and peer pressure decipline allows for the unthinkable from only 60 years back.
No-one is held responsible for anything. If they are, the consequences are so mild as to not be a deterent.
Multiple BK's, divorces, and business frauds have become the norm.
But it's just a cycle and will reverse to some extent. Americans think at best in decades when the perspective of multiple generations are required.
Just random musings from one of Jas's dopes.
CR and Tanta - thanks for a great resource. If you're reading Tanta, feel better - I miss your writing and the comments it generates - particularly bacon dreamz insights.
It would truly be a shame if the comments were to be shut down as there is some wonderful information found within the comments.
CR, whatever you need to do. I've been guilty of spreading too much noise around. I'm not alone, of course, but I have been.
Split the blog up in four parts!
This blog has gone to shit in the last month, to a point where I want my friggn money back! People used to be kind and honest, goodhearted, less pissey, less political, less pissed, less trashy, less educated, less focused, less reliable. WTF happened to squirrel recipes, in-depth discussions of driving trucks and music -- and WTF happened to more Cowbell? What happened to Sarah Palin?
The whole idea that there is a current boom in bankruptcy filings is a little strange. The population has grown quite a bit since 1996 but the absolute number of filings YTD is similar. More of a bust than a boom. People aren't flocking to their BK lawyers, the trend is up but look at that crash in 2005.
No, I think ruthless default and involuntary foreclosure remain the main problems in the economy. Banks would lose less if cram down in bankruptcy court was an option. Filings would rise and losses to the banks would fall.
Re: bankruptcies clogging the BR courts--I wonder if more people are filing pro se? When the revised BR was passed, a few of the attorneys I talked to said they might do fewer BRs because the burden on attorneys was increased (to verify claims re:assets,etc., of debtor). Pro se bankruptcy filings would probably take up more of a court's or bankruptcy trustee's time.
A bankruptcy attorney friend who now works for the state AG's office (looking after the state's interests in corporate bankruptcies) says she's swamped with work.
From the academic wayback machine (this thing costs between $14.00 and $35.00 at most sites)
Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit
George A. Akerlof
University of California, Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Paul M. Romer
Stanford Graduate School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
April 1994
NBER Working Paper No. R1869
Abstract:
During the 1980s, a number of unusual financial crises occurred. In Chile, for example, the financial sector collapsed, leaving the government with responsibility for extensive foreign debts. In the United States, large numbers of government-insured savings and loans became insolvent - and the government picked up the tab. In Dallas, Texas, real estate prices and construction continued to boom even after vacancies had skyrocketed, and the suffered a dramatic collapse. Also in the United States, the junk bond market, which fueled the takeover wave, had a similar boom and bust.
In this paper, we use simple theory and direct evidence to highlight a common thread that runs through these four episodes. The theory suggests that this common thread may be relevant to other cases in which countries took on excessive foreign debt, governments had to bail out insolvent financial institutions, real estate prices increased dramatically and then fell, or new financial markets experienced a boom and bust. We describe the evidence, however, only for the cases of financial crisis in Chile, the thrift crisis in the United States, Dallas real estate and thrifts, and junk bonds.
Our theoretical analysis shows that an economic underground can come to life if firms have an incentive to go broke for profit at society's expense (to loot) instead of to go for broke (to gamble on success). Bankruptcy for profit will occur if poor accounting, lax regulation, or low penalties for abuse give owners an incentive to pay themselves more than their firms are worth and then default on their debt obligations.
I'm 25 and had a roaring argument with my mom one day about debt.
I asked her whether she thought credit card companies had her best interest in mind.
She said yes.
I asked her if she felt she owed credit card companies anything.
She said yes.
I have student loans and a credit card and have a budget that incorporates paying my debt, but the fervor with which she believed she had to avoid default at all costs contrasted sharply with my own attitude.
I've been wondering for some time if the changes in bankruptcy law were related to creditors seeing both the change in attitude towards debt and also the inevitable crash of credit. Seems mighty suspicious that the law made it harder mere years before this mess started in earnest.
I don't think credit card companies have my best interests in mind, by the way.
Why@ ZIRP(Unrated) writes:
"...the trend is up but look at that crash in 2005."
You are aware of the changes in the BK laws in 2005, right?
I know a bankruptcy lawyer and she says the workload is overwhelming and growing. Still a crappy job, however. You need the client to pay upfront and most of the companies that specialize in personal bankruptcy are shady even if the individual lawyers are nice people that are only looking to pay off their own massive loans and wish they could do more to help the client.
Also, I don't think registration is going to help much of anything. I'm sure haloscan doesn't support it, but two ideas I came up with are
1) Add some sort of IP address hash to the HTML code of each comment. Then those who choose to use the killfile can key off that and catch all comments from a particular user no matter what name they choose to go by. And of course nobody can tell what the IP is. The md5 hash is probably perfect for it, if you have the ability to add a tiny bit of code to the template.
2) Add an exponentially increasing delay before your posts show up. Reset it to 1 second every morning. People that don't post a lot wont notice. People that post a lot of useful stuff probably don't care if it takes a minute or two for the post to show up - the useful comments in a thread don't move that fast. The trolls are the ones that depend on a quick server response.
Always cut the tendens between a squirrel's lower and upper arm before frying. If you do not, they will contract in hot oil and 'jump' causing the haus frau to think that it was not properly dead.
Therefore bake the squirrel and she will never know.
Pravda.
UB, this is too funny:
YouTube -
New thread.
I have a solution to the Comments problem.
First we all register with the SEC (Society of Economic Commenters).
Then, we can chose to compensate other members of the group if a comment "goes bad". You would charge a small fee for this, called a "Comment Detritus Settlement" or CDS.
Although it would be totally unregulated by CR, you could, of course, choose to protect as many commenters as you wished, each time collecting another CDS. At no time would you have to show how many commenters you have protected, and it would be extremely unlikely that a single post, say about sub-prime mortgages, for instance, would aggravate so many people that you would have to pay out multiple CDS claims.
Everyone would simply be monitored by their own enlightened self-interest, and I would be shocked, shocked I tell you, if anything could possibly go wrong . . . .
For this idea, I will just take my usual $53 million bonus, preferably right before Christmas, because it looks like so many "other people" won't be able to buy a lot this year, there should really be many great sales after Christmas.
Thnx so much . . . .
Alan Paulhankspan.
sm_landlord writes:
Why@ ZIRP(Unrated) writes:
"...the trend is up but look at that crash in 2005."
You are aware of the changes in the BK laws in 2005, right?
sm_landlord | Homepage | 11.15.08 - 10:24 pm | #
Look upthread, I am just pointing out that panic over increased filings is just a return to mean. I am quite aware of the BAPCA atrocity that was passed in 2005 with Biden's yes vote. What I can't figure out is why a supposedly liberal Dem would vote for that mess. Maybe MBNA's contributions to his campaigns funds helped.
The current mores are simply an acceptance of a general decline in morality and an abbrogation of responsibility. Lack of personal and peer pressure decipline allows for the unthinkable from only 60 years back.
Don't forget that our own govt. and public institutions have set the example. How many of us are totally demoralized after watching the bubble abuse, bailout abuse, political abuse, etc. etc. It wears down personal discipline and ethics.
Coming from a social work/spec. ed perspective, children from dysfunctional homes with lack of positive parenting tend to react in certain self-destructive ways. I see a correlation between "bad governing" and "bad parenting" resulting in similar unhealthy patterns of behavior in our society. In an age of superficiality and exhorbitant materialism, it's no wonder there's a rush to get the debt monkey off one's back thru b/k.
The shift that needs to occur must start with the leadership. We'll see if that happens.
I know I am probably one of the people you guys are bummed about commenting...
But you have all taught me so much.
I want to add something I came across.
The AIG bailout deal has been changed by the FED dramatically. The original deal was LIBOR + 850 BPS but now the FED has recently amended the deal so that it's LIBOR + 300 BPS and the undrawn funds had a 850 BPS rate on them and they were just reduced to 75 BPS.
I fail to see how this is legal?
Here is the source
FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve Board and Treasury Department announce restructuring of financial support to AIG --November 10, 2008
the interest rate on the facility will be reduced to three-month Libor plus 300 basis points from the current rate of three-month Libor plus 850 basis points, and the fee on undrawn funds will be reduced to 75 basis points from the current rate of 850 basis points. The length of the facility will be extended from two years to five years. The other material terms of the facility remain unchanged. The facility will continue to be secured by a lien on many of the assets of AIG and of its subsidiaries.
If the comments go, I won't visit as much.
I view CR as the moderator, the most-respected posters as the panelists, others as the audience (me), and the trolls are the protestors outside the building.
I just started visiting this site in January and it is the FIRST site I visit for financial analysis. And it's not just CR's top-notch perspective.
The folks who contribute meaningfully in the comments section are invaluable. I don't read comments at the other financial blog sites I frequent. They don't have the same humor, insight, or familiarity - registration or otherwise. I can't put my finger on it, but the blog comments here have a good flow. They've gotten a bit off-topic recently, but I can deal with it given the upside of reading the good posts.
Anyway, that's my deflation-adjusted $.02.
Wow, look at the bankruptcy spike in 2005-when the economy was awesomely good! If the bill had not been passed, we might have had to deal with the debt realities years earlier and might not be in such a present pickle.
Truth is, I'm certain I don't add anything, either. The things I do know are not broad enough for public consumption, so, I don't comment on them.
And, I'd have to link to non-public info to add credibility to my assertions, and that ain't gonna happen.
So, like most, I just mumble along that things are very badly screwed up and try to catch some laughs and links to good public sites that I haven't run up on before.
That's the most beneficial aspect to the comments for me, but, I would rather CR cut them off rather than feeling "burdened" by them.
CR- if you did turn the comments off, how bout running some "linkfests" sponsored by some of your favorite posters as a compromise?
Bk- Hold me responsible when you hold businesses and banks to the same standard.
Mel writes:
"BK law is a stain on Biden's resume. He was seemingly a tool of the credit card giants, time for him to undo this evil act."
He wasn't a tool, that's what congresspeople do, 'earn' billions over the decades serving their prospering corporate patrons while deviously neglecting public interests of health, pension, energy and infrastructure.
Worse, as corporate and GSE earnings and credit enter a severe and possibly fatal contraction, congress renews their corporate favoratism through bailouts using stolen taxpayer resources.
At some point out in the developing decession when continued Biden, Pelosi, Reid, and Frank bailout support no longer promises job preservation, and their corporate sponsor stocks are sub $5 and EPS sub-$0, it will be interesting to see if their ever-embarrassing pro-corporate stance finally becomes a fatal political error of their own. Or maybe the sponsored destination golf excursions never end.
Always cut the tendens between a squirrel's lower and upper arm before frying. If you do not, they will contract in hot oil and 'jump' causing the haus frau to think that it was not properly dead.
Therefore bake the squirrel and she will never know.
Pravda.
Ross
Ross, that reminds me of advice I heard as a child about frying frog's legs! They would jump out of the pan if you weren't careful. Vaguely remember my older brother shooting them with a .22 in my grandpa's pond. Perch fishing with cane poles, too.
Konookie: cute kid, but he's a trained monkey compared to my little mozart
Ehem, yes, the spread on the 3 week inter pawnshop rate has diverged sharply from historic trends
lurker and rare poster here.
I would find it both regrettable and understandable if you would decide to "pull the plug", in which case I strongly second UB's split proposal.
I would most probably stay on the non-registered side.
Yes, trying to work my way through lots of chaff has been painful at times, but was always worth the effort.
I value responsible ano/pseudonymity.
UB,
Pawnshops are fine examples of where this is all headed. This blog does seem to be a bit strained these days, is it perhaps because of unemployment and too many cheap and east toys being in the pawnshops>
That kid did suck, but it's amazing how many little monkey's are being trained at age 4; my cash is on the kid in Korea!
Registration, with the ability of registered users to moderate comments up or down (maybe use a variant of the Slashdot system?) could be a very good solution, and if you could clone the Slashdot approach it could be implemented without a lot of effort.
The other approach would be to deputize a couple of trusted moderators to ruthlessly (and quickly) delete unsuitable material.
The rapid negative feedback would send a message to the posters, and reduce the volume of material readers have to plow through to find the nuggets that attract them to CR.
Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of blogs?
CR and da shadow do!
Quotes from the Green Hornet are available for 2 more boxtops. Kix are for Kids.
Your site CR. Your pleasure is my command.
Seldom post here, but find many of the comments here exceptional and a great addition to CR/Tanta's posts. I have learned a lot and am very grateful
Alas a large number of comments are way beyond germane and border on a chatroom for the banal, something I don't think CR/Tanta intend.
If Tanta has been driven off from reading comments, something needs done.
So CR, I hope you find a way to keep the comments; by subscription, a band of volunteer moderators or something else.
And thanks for a really great blog.
The Democratic plan for solving the foreclosure issue is to amend the bankruptcy code to allow courts to modify consumer bankruptcies. It's a neat way to claim credit and have someone else to blame if it goes wrong or doesn't work. If that happens then your prediction goes out the window as a new record will be set for personal BK's. It will in all likelihood overwhelm the court system.
I don't know the solution to the comments issue, but I will pledge to post less irreverent bullshit and try to stay on topic.
Some sort of throttle on the comments is inevitable with the growth in popularity of any blog such as this. I just hope whatever throttle is chosen can be quietly relaxed or eliminated at some future date. As others have noted, some of the best commentors would have never gotten 'hooked' here if they had to go through some registration process to get started.
Not sure what the comments controversy is all about.
I am an avid reader of posts but go to the comments on topics in which I have a more more keen interest.
Please don't take the comments away.
Asking people to stay on topic of the post and interspersing with "Open Threads" works for lots of blogs.
Either way I will still read posts, but will miss comments if they are removed.
Troll feeding is bad for everyone. Always.
I hope this doesn't vex you for very much longer.
Slightly on topic:
Everyone and their mama are becoming banks. Isn't this increasing systemic risk. I thought one of the problems was breaking down walls between banks and investment banks. What about the walls coming down between banks and say insurance companies. This seems like a bad idea to me.
CR,
CNBC has this as the transcript:
"Kashkari: The secretary is very passionate about this as well-
Kucinich: Passionate about what?
Kashkari: Helping homeowners, congressman -
Kucinich: wwww- he is? in what country??
Cummings: You're on TV. Youre the man. I don't know how much we're paying you, but you're our employee...
Issa: Y'know, we could go ring around the rosie here, but you are here because Congress feels you played a bait and switch game...
Kashkari: I dont think it's a good use of taxpayer money to put taxpayer capital into an institution that's going to fail-
Kucinich: Boy y'know, that statement you just made, you will hear about for the rest of your career.
Cummings: Is Kashkari a chump?
Not sure what else I could possibly add. "
The video does not play the line:
"Kashkari: I dont think it's a good use of taxpayer money to put taxpayer capital into an institution that's going to fail- "
I gather the line refers to National City Bank but do you know if the video has clipped this out or CNBC has clipped this in from elsewhere in the hearing?
CR -- you might want to ask Yves Smith (no relation) over at Naked Capitalism how she keeps the comments at such a high quality level.
Why@ ZIRP,
Whether cram-downs should have been the rule in the past is a reasonable question. It might have made lenders more cautious, lending on ability to repay vs. collateral value. It probably would have raised borrowing costs by some degree also.
But where we are now, it effectively changes secured debt to unsecured debt. This is quite revolutionary and with some very negative effects.
There are also no good historical comparisons where 1 in 5 citizens would by policy be incented to declare bankruptcy, and incented to rack up as many credit card debts before doing so.
If you think things can't get worse, give this a shot to be proven wrong. Cram down will go a long way to knock the last leg of the stool still standing, confidence in the US dollar (and government).
@Worker
Cram down will go a long way to knock the last leg of the stool still standing, confidence in the US dollar (and government).
Plus it is just wrong. Why should credit card companies get their debt protected while home lenders who loaned against an actual asset get punished.
I have zero sympathy for anyone who bought a home at >3x earnings. They were part of the problem. Foreclose, BK and rent should be their future.
But on the other side, the irresponsible lenders should not be getting TARP. BK for them too. So that the financial the institutions who were not stupid can take their place.
I do not think that the incoming administration nor the new congress will let that happen though. I worry that we are in for a lot more of the same nanny state efforts to socialize the losses while the privileged few get to keep the gains.
KEVIN SMITH (Silent Bob?) writes:
CR -- you might want to ask Yves Smith (no relation) over at Naked Capitalism how she keeps the comments at such a high quality level.
Easy. Yves (bless her heart) gets less than half the traffic as Calculated Risk does on average.
If you're coming here for laughs you are, emphatically, part of the problem.
There are too many comments that are intended to be funny and aren't. Then some other bozo will encourage it by typing ROFLMAO.
Take it down the street, it doesn't belong here.
Several versions of the disemvowellingtool are available. You can automatically deal with any posting from a designated IP address, or choose individual posts.
Quickly going through a thread and disemvowelling the garbage posts makes the remainder far easier to read.
Recommended. Specifics here:
Making Light: Autodisemvowelling
There are people being forced into bankruptcy who otherwise would pay all of their obligations.
The banks are now forcing the middle class to relinquish all of our accumulated wealth and driving us into the lower class.
Message to Distressed Borrowers: You Have to Help Yourselves « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
We are all on our own now - don't look for Paulson to care about anyone but Wall Street and Goldman Sachs.
i had to stop reading comments due to too much heckling.
now i rapidly scroll and only stop where i see a link and only read the link if it is quoted (blocking all cookies).
analysis tends to be accompanied by some form of "documentation" if you can call a temporal link documentation.
links die over time anyway.
i like the idea of a hierarchical commenting system where the cream rises and is cordoned off in a separate playground.
seriously, this is how to remove garbage posts. write a program to automatically block all comments that include an inane acronym.
what the heck happened to the english language anyway? it has been reduced to a text message, a twitter.
So how do folks who read CR keep their spirits up during this storm of a lifetime? How do folks wake up, and go off an earn a living, while knowing that the government is working hard to piss it all away?
I decided several years ago that it wasn't my father's stock market, and developed a small scheme for managing my retirement funds. It's averaged about 12% for the last few years and is up a bit over 10% this year; an aggressive version of the same scheme would be up over 20%, but I'm a conservative kind of guy.
A few years ago I changed careers completely, and joined the permanent non-partisan staff for our state legislature. It's about as recession-proof as a job here can be: the legislature may cut a lot of state jobs, but they're not going to cut their own budget staff.
I live in a western state, where we have a few hundred years worth of coal and at least a few decades of natural gas (if we quit shipping it "back east"). With farm equipment modified to run on NG, the state could be self-sufficient in food.
Short of a Mad Max sort of crash, I've done all I can do. And since there's nothing practical to do to prepare for that case, what's the alternative to getting up and going to work?