IMF Bails Out Pakistan, Iceland Still Waits
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Sat, 11/15/2008 - 6:59pm (468 comments)
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I love the Pig!!
I got my TARP application in on time! Did you get yours?
Is it just me, or is CR getting a new attitude in his ending post comments with all the craziness of these times?
btw, CR, thank you so very much for doing what you do.
force majeure writes:
Is it just me, or is CR getting a new attitude in his ending post comments with all the craziness of these times?
Can you blame him?
Pakistan is unhappy about getting a 2% loan? Methinks they protesteth too much. Probably some internal political game.
IMF 'strict' rules are obviously detrimental to those who accept their aid.
But if one has no choice. Then one has to bend over.
the dichotomy is obvious.
This looks like a planned stress test of the G20 in terms of expectations management.
well played, CR.
The real question should be who owns and controls the IMF?
U.S. Judge Extends Freeze on Argentina Pension-Fund Transfers
Wow, those numbers seem so small now. One more choice quote from the article.
Now we're questioning other people's credibility?
Now we're questioning other people's credibility?
Might makes right still it would seem.
FT: Letter from Iceland
Burning flags? Try hoisting the banksters and their politcal cronies from every lamp post with piano wire - that may teach them a lesson they'll never forget.
We can all be thankful that we have such wise and intelligent leaders in this time of crisis. I am very reassured about it all, aren't you?
The motto: Iceland should have gotten nuclear weapons.
Now we're questioning other people's credibility?
We're right on this one. Those assets belong to Argentine retirees, not the government.
catch my drift Iceland?
I'm sure Russia or Iran has financing for perspective buyers....no credit? NO PROBLEM!
The video provided by CR is from an older protest, maybe a week or two ago. Here are videos showing the protests today:
Protest in Reykjavik - Iceland november 15 2008
Iceland protest november 15th 2008
To me it looks like the protesters are getting more angry each time. I fear how things are going to end up there if this continues. Time to check in with friends back there to see how they are holding up.
Iceland was considered the poster child for free trade and globilization just last year. They deregulated and cut taxes and had a high standard of living. It was a Milton Freidman wet dream come true. Now each citizen there owes $200k and interest rates and inflation are at 18%. Needless to say, their standard of living is falling rapidly.
California is burning down.
This just seems like so much apocalyptic chaos.
I can't make the dots connect into anything coherent. Is it me? Or are things really this bad?
Now each citizen there owes $200k and interest rates and inflation are at 18%.
This sounds rather familiar.
Luckily the global reserves are in USD.
RE: Registration/moderation (last thread's comments by CR).
A week or so ago I commented that the CR comments threads were a genetic algorithm; I wasn't joking. Rather than describe what I mean, see Human-based genetic algorithm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
It's no accident that many of the regular posters here "saw this coming" long before the MSM, the pundants, the markets. The flow of thought that comes from the openness of the forums defines and perfects the surviving ideas, which thus anticipate and converge to temporal realities in ways moderated discussions just cannot do.
The environment on this blog is so far superior to "expert" models, which can rapidly decay into "we report, you decide (to agree with us or go away)" structures of the Truth, or peer reviewed/moderated models as prevail in the academy; we all know how successful that form's academic freedom has been in defining, let alone forecasting, states and events.
These forums today have sub-threads speculating on how badly the social fabric of the nation is going to tear, while the main stream experts are not yet publically even close to unanimous as to whether there is even a recession. The latter group is wrong, and will continue to be wrong. Most of the former ideas will turn out to wrong too, but no truth can come from the latter, and great insights can emerge from the soup of the former.
These forums have insightful, well reasoned proposals and discussions of such archane issues as knockout provisions in debt contracts, interrupted by shouts that gay communists will enslave the discussants and force them to build mosques. Maybe the shouters are just trolls looking for their fun, but maybe they are the believers' voices from the fringe, normally consigned to yelling at others who share their paranoias and imbalances, who come to yell at the adults because they, along with everyone else, are allowed in.
If they are just trolls, then they're really no more disruptive than my labrador demanding to go out when he hears the Pyrenees guardian dogs barking, and then demanding to come back in when he discovers there's really nothing to worry about out there. And if they are the latter, then it's worth it for the rest of us to be reminded that every once in a while coyotes or bobcats really can come to threaten the flock.
Like everyone else who posts here, just sayin'.
So Iceland has over 300,000 fisher persons? They want HOW much?
Make them build boats and invade someone. York comes to mind.
File:Nuclear weapons states.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
this image is the opposite of weapons of Mass Financial Destruction.
That judge should have his pension frozen.
Austin Tex:
Hear ! Hear!
Joanna
Sorry, but it is really bad.
More broadly
Remember that Pakistan is a country at war and deeply factionalized. Any help from anywhere will be seen as help by some, an attack by others. Pakistan has a conflict with India, a border region out of its control, a democracy coming out of dictatorship, its own active and powerful jihadis with deep links to the intelligence service and military, and the US is running incursions and bombing runs into its territory.
And, yes, they have nukes.
The extent to which GWB has salted the earth is amazing. If a brilliant Dr Evil had wanted to do this, he could not have done it as well as Bush.
Check out my link
If protests in the US Capitol garnered 6% of national population, there would be 1.8 million people in the city.
Sounds like estimates for the inauguration...
Oh, and LA is on fire. No need for liquid smoke tonight.
just clicked your rating tag to (good) Tex
well said. I lurk a few other forums where registration was imposed- they definitely lost something of that genetic algorithm after. and the trolls still barked
Pakistan and Iceland are the warmups for the IMF like little banks are for the FDIC. California is just lucky their debt is denominated in... oh wait. Never mind.
I'd rather be a bank than a protester. Anybody want to make a deposit?
unhappyCakeEater:
they definitely lost something of that genetic algorithm after. and the trolls still barked
Hear! Hear!
I have a solution to the Comments problem.
First we all register with the SEC (Society of Economic Commenters).
Then, we can chose to compensate other members of the group if a comment "goes bad". You would charge a small fee for this, called a "Comment Detritus Settlement" or CDS.
Although it would be totally unregulated by CR, you could, of course, choose to protect as many commenters as you wished, each time collecting another CDS. At no time would you have to show how many commenters you have protected, and it would be extremely unlikely that a single post, say about sub-prime mortgages, for instance, would aggravate so many people that you would have to pay out multiple CDS claims.
Everyone would simply be monitored by their own enlightened self-interest, and I would be shocked, shocked I tell you, if anything could possibly go wrong . . . .
For this idea, I will just take my usual $53 million bonus, preferably right before Christmas, because it looks like so many "other people" won't be able to buy a lot this year, there should really be many great sales after Christmas.
Thnx so much . . . .
Alan Paulhankspan.
S Puttnick
Indeed. The US is so big and decentralized, and Washington DC is just the capital and not a central city in any other way. The kind of protests one gets in Paris or London or most other countries can't happen here. James Madison was occasionally too smart for our own good.
I dag, Island har noen av verdens høyeste nivåer av økonomiske og sivile friheter. I 2007, Island var rangert som den mest utviklet land i verden med FNs Human Development Index. Det er også den fjerde mest produktive land per innbygger, og en av de mest egalitarian, som vurdert av Gini koeffisient
Ooops
Today, Iceland has some of the world's highest levels of economic and civil freedoms. In 2007, Iceland was ranked as the most developed country in the world by the United Nations' Human Development Index. It is also the fourth most productive country per capita, and one of the most egalitarian, as rated by the Gini coefficient
Pakistan has a N Bomb.
Iceland doesn't.
Pakistan problem could turn into a big refugee problem for some of its neighbours.
Iceland - How many can i fit in this boat?
I spent time in an Icelandic prison. I was accused of molesting children on two different occasions and the charges were completely unsubstantiated. I was so glad to get out of that hellhole of a country.
Iceland is finding that to keep a high standard of living, you either have to produce it all yourself, or you trade equal value with the world for those goods you don't produce for yourself. Iceland, it appears, has tried the last several years to offer financial services of some type that the world has finally figured out didn't really have the value equal to the goods being shipped there.
I feel for the Icelanders, but if you want to be wealthy, you had better be ready to produce enough for trade. The US faces the same problem on a larger scale, but the decline will not be as deep- the US still produces a prodigious amount of goods.
SEE? Wish I had bought a CDS on joey's comment . . .
Gini coefficient
the Gini coefficient.
Worldwide, Gini coefficients range from approximately 0.232 in Denmark to 0.707 in Namibia. Most free market nations have a Gini coefficient between.25 and.50.
US income Gini indices: 2007: 46.3
Hey EHP and Plantagenet:
If you peeps are about, from the earlier discussion of the maturity profile of the US debt...Plantagenet was kind enough to provide the direct link to the granular data which is now posted on my blog - you can see what $1.6 trillion to rollover in 4.5 months looks like in OpenOffice graph...before any new borrowings.
That is $0.75 trillion by the end of the year with $0.85 trillion by the end of the first quarter, 2009 (see that seems smaller with the decimal point, no?).
Pakistan is unhappy about getting a 2% loan? Methinks they protesteth too much. Probably some internal political game.
It's an IMF lone, meaning it comes loaded, and they know it. I would protest it too, if we were allowed to protest in this country.
the US still produces a prodigious amount of goods.
The 'wealth' that the US has is largely due to it's financial or intangible 'services' industries.
A rude awakening is about to occur for joe public.
Of course the top 5% have already diversified into real tangible assets.
7.6 billion is for rookies.
If the IMF doesn't bail out Iceland, what are they going to do? Hit someone with a wet fish?
There are lots of bargains in Iceland right now. You can buy ice, fish, rocks, and shares in FIshCorp...
One suspects that their only recourse will be to be lose their sovereignty and be absorbed by Denmark or Norway.
There is a lesson here. Don't allow your town, city or country to become a giant hedge fund. If Greenwich, CT were a country this could happen there too.
India, Pakistan, Myanmar, North Korea, and Taiwan and the non-proliferation treaty.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:NPT_Participation.svg
GDP per capita with a dollar hegeonomy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:GDP_nominal_per_capita_world_map_IMF_2007.PNG
who suffers and why?
D writes:
The video provided by CR is from an older protest, maybe a week or two ago. Here are videos showing the protests today:
Protest in Reykjavik - Iceland november 15 2008
See the flowers in the law enforcements hands? Not only did the protesters give the cops the flowers but the cops kept the flowers. Iceland will be just fine. Can you even imagine that happening here?
300,000 people is a small city. The homogeneous population ensures that the people protesting are related to the authority figures. Not being diverse helps Iceland in these times. Being diverse actually will ensure a sub strata of the population will be blamed in times of trouble. Immigrants and visa holders will be the targets of misdirected rage in the next year.
Icelanders are angry with the UK and the IMF, not their own people. Rightfully so IMO.
Bjork 2 writes:
Ooops
Today, Iceland has some of the world's highest levels of economic and civil freedoms. In 2007, Iceland was ranked as the most developed country in the world by the United Nations' Human Development Index. It is also the fourth most productive country per capita, and one of the most egalitarian, as rated by the Gini coefficient
Bjork 2 | 11.15.08 - 10:47 pm | #
Even with all those wonderful qualities your greedy bankers took the foreigners money, just like ours did here in the U.S. and loaned it to your people if they could fog a mirror. All so that the foreigners could receive just a little more on their investments. This is a worldwide problem, sorry you are caught up in it.
Pakistan agreement announcement from Press Release: IMF Announces Staff Level Agreement with Pakistan on US$7.6 Billion Loan
"The Pakistani authorities have developed a policy package to help the country meet its serious balance of payments difficulties. The authorities' program has two main objectives: (i) to restore the confidence of domestic and external investors by addressing macroeconomic imbalances through a tightening of fiscal and monetary policies; and (ii) to protect the poor and preserve social stability through a well-targeted and adequately funded social safety net. Both objectives are an integral part of Fund support for Pakistan.
Morocco Bama, you're right when you say the package is loaded, although the IMF has moved away from draconian "structural adjustment" that it used to do.
Now they even include at least lip-service to a social safety net, a definite step in the right direction.
Breaking News. Oprah asks to be covered under TARP due to the stress caused by the California fires.
Sure, why not.
The IMF is a failed institution as proven by the way they handled the Asian financial crisis of '97.
Will this arrive soon enough to beat the obvious "Oprah's weight" snark that Morocco's post left hanging in the air?
Yeah, and what are the Icelanders going to do, huh?
this just seems appropriate...
YouTube - Monty Python - Fish Slapping Dance + Titanic Sinking
Re: the IMF announcement,
I also want to mention that the mechanism is still tightened fiscal and monetary policy, but that preserving social stability is also important. Pakistan, as above posters have said, is fragmented and could experience upheaval if the gov't is perceived as weak or vulnerable.
The announcement also mentions that the aid package is 500% of Pakistan's IMF quota, but I'm still reading up on what that quota is all about.
Seems like a good return on investment for Pakistan, though, if quota is the minimum it must contribute to the IMF each year.
Jóhanna Vala Jónsdóttir
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jóhanna_Vala_Jónsdóttir
Jóhanna, if yah need a place to stay while your waiting for your currency to adjust, gimmie a call!
Let's face it...The next phase in this disaster begins with the realization that there are more causes than there is TARP money to support them.
One of the big questions is how large can the Fed balance sheet get before a crisis of legitimacy develops.
Sorry leftback.
Your comment hadn't posted when I was fishing in youtube for the clip.
enjoy.
Austin Texas, (my alma mater, fyi), thoughtfully said!
OT- random, just came from dinner with in laws, they were caught up in a shooting earlier at the Waldorf Astoria, where they were here for Knights of Malta gala wackiness. just getting on the elevator when the shooting started. my brother in law is a doc and was first responder. the victim was an ex cop, making ends meet at the jewelry store. he got lucky, the 45 slug grazed a rib and passed through apparently. amateur crook, nabbed quickly.
gosh, it's feeling like old times here already!
Former Cop Shot at Waldorf-Astoria - Gothamist
Bjork 2, her eyes are amazing.
Eyesland?
AS most of us know CR has heard several if not many complaints about the comments...
CR has directed us to use some restraint ...
many here have ruminated about possible consequences and several here have recommended various changes
this is simply the best blog on the tubz
simplest change... is for us to be smart and civil with each other and not loose a good thing
please
or you will be banished to ICELAND!
Let's face it...The next phase in this disaster begins with the realization that there are more causes than there is TARP money to support them.
Paulson already admitted as much in the CNBC interview hence his change in direction.
That is $0.75 trillion by the end of the year with $0.85 trillion by the end of the first quarter, 2009 (see that seems smaller with the decimal point, no?).
Isn't the debt always front-loaded, or is this some super-duper "witching hour"? Just looking for historical perspective here.
Ex-cop, my ass, serf. I have no doubt he was a Knights of Malta Manchurian Candidate.
"Is a man not entitled to the sweat of his brow? 'No!' says the man in Washington, 'It belongs to the poor.' 'No!' says the man in the Vatican, 'It belongs to God.' 'No!' says the man in Moscow, 'It belongs to everyone.' I rejected those answers; instead, I chose something different. I chose the impossible. I chose... Rapture, a city where the artist would not fear the censor, where the scientist would not be bound by petty morality, Where the great would not be constrained by the small! And with the sweat of your brow, Rapture can become your city as well."
See the impossibility of having the perfect comment section. Accept it.
energyecon -
Followed the earlier posts with some interest but didn't have time to comment. It should be pointed out that the "roll" is defacto expected to be just that. In other words it's not like the Treasury is looking for an additional $1.6 T. They are expecting (and without something upsetting the apple cart, probably rightly) that those dollars will come right back into Treasuries again.
Seems to me it's the incremental additional debt that will set off any avalanche. At some point the rates on rolled money will start to rise because of that additional debt.
The question of what happens with Treasuries, and what spreads are to them depending on what happens, is most definitely the question to ponder.
IMF quota update:
Each member country of the IMF is assigned a quota, based broadly on its relative size in the world economy. A member's quota determines its maximum financial commitment to the IMF and its voting power, and has a bearing on its access to IMF financing. Total quotas at end-August 2008 were SDR 217.4 billion (about $341 billion).
From Factsheet -- IMF Quotas
"Isn't the debt always front-loaded"
Yes, and seasonally. One year maturity T-bills are actually officially termed tax anticipation borrowing. But the absolute amount, of course, rises all the time, and is on course to rise more quickly.
Ooops, lifted that from another blog comments, he attributed it too a video game. "Bioshock". He was responding to an earnest wish that the UK could be a better place.
Lets face it, Iceland was not 'helped' because they offer no economic or political significance at this point of time.
They have been relegated to the status of most african nations.
Anon@11:08,
Sad, but true.
Re: Currently Accounting @10:30
Yes, that money does belong to the retirees. I was in Argentina in Dec. 2001 - Jan. 2002 and vividly remember the faces of my relatives one morning when we woke up and they had 25% of the savings compared to 7 hours earlier. It's very hard to lead or maintain moral authority when you're just as crooked as the next guy.
Re: Austin Tex
Hello to a fellow Austin poster!
Enough antisocial behaviour for a Saturday night. Later people.
you wankers finally got some new threads
got off cannbibalism yet?
bloody intelligent, aren't you?
Cod War in 30 Seconds. Iceland... best in the world
YouTube - Iceland Best in the world Iceland won the cod war
So, are we like to be clicking all these ads to help make CR cash or what?
What about a group click to crash a server?
Austin Tex - thanks.
Favorite Iceland foods:
Black pudding or (less often) blood pudding is a British English term for sausage made by cooking blood with a filler until it is thick enough to congeal when cooled. It is also called blood sausage (first attested in 1868, perhaps influenced by German Blutwurst).
They have been relegated to the status of most african nations.
Except many African nations actually have valuable natural resources besides fish and steam.
Wait... I'm thinking squirrel brats!
6 truths of life 1. You cannot touch all your teeth with your tongue. 2. All idiots, after reading the first truth, will try it. 3. And discover that the first truth is a lie. 4. You're smiling now because you're an idiot. 5. You soon will post this on another blog. 6. There's still a stupid smile on your face. I just had 2 read this so... here... pass it on fellow idiots.
See the impossibility of having the perfect comment section. Accept it.
zoom | 11.15.08 - 11:05 pm | #
never let the very good be the victim of the perfect
to mis quote donald rumsefld
you go to post with the blog youve got
So, based upon the threads 2 back, has anyone calculated the total bailout of every state, county & local municipality based upon the San Jose plan (i.e., 4.3x budget)?
cannbibalism
=cannibalism
doubt anybody was too confused
kind of a retard day
CR:
Just returned from the earlier thread and your comments re post quality.
if you deem registration necessary, that's fine and I can accept that.
Would hate to see the comments section retire since I learn more there than elsewhere. No offense to the charts, etc.
Registration no problem here, either.
Gasbag reports Citi will announce 40,000 job cuts Monday morning:
Citigroup Plans to Cut 10% of Its Global Workforce: Source - Financials * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
PeakVT, MLM, Austin Tex (hey neighbor - Houstonian here):
Excellent question and need...more...data! lol
The term structure has always been like this - to an extant - I will dig for historical data to answer the question "is this significantly more?"
The other issue is the rate of change at the front end - IIRC virtually all of the recent ramp in borrowings has been at the very short end.
Except many African nations actually have valuable natural resources besides fish and steam.
Valuable to whom? I can't for the life of me name one, that has put it's resources to good use for its people in general.
Anon@11:08
For the reasons Bjork 2 gives, as well as the energy independence, there is little threat of serious internal suffering, and no threat of serious external systemic disruptions. In Pakistan's case, there are both.
With scarce resources to go around, it was probably not too hard a decision to have made.
I've heard that Iceland has promise for aluminum smelting, an electricity-intensive process that means geothermal resources present comparative advantage.
Icelands other commodity:
YouTube - Iceland Best in the world and The most beutiful people
If this place is for sale (UB) we need to grab it ASAP:
Blue Lagoon a geothermal and destination spa in Iceland
Valuable to whom? I can't for the life of me name one, that has put it's resources to good use for its people in general.
Well they were certainly valuable resources to the French, British, Belgian, Dutch and Italian colonizers.
You're talking about politics; I thought we were talking about resources of strategic value. Bauxite, copper, oil, etc etc.
US income Gini indices: 2007: 46.3
Bjork 2 | 11.15.08 - 10:52 pm
The gini index goes between 0 and 1, so I'm assuming you mean .463, but then the other stats you quoted don't make sense.
Of course, Iceland is and will remain highly useful in a future world war as a strategic airbase for... well, the highest bidder I expect.
Although I read and enjoy CR's posts, most of my time is spent in the comments to the tune of an order of magnitude difference.
If CR shuts the comments off, I'd probably check the site once every day or two. Presently, it is the site I hit most often.
I think the site would exponentially lose traffic.
Konookie: Only $12.00 entrance fee.
Between the despotic rulers of third world nations and their neocon partners, I'd say the majority of the people in the world are pretty much neck deep in sh*t.
But yes i am hopeful, what else can i be.
lot of stupid comments on the threads today, but is manifestation of current malapropism I guess still ridiculous comments are becoming ridiculous I guess sense of doom overpowering the more intellectual comments perhaps
But yes i am hopeful, what else can i be.
Anonymous | 11.15.08 - 11:22 pm | #
Dead?
Oh, one interesting item about the US gini index... before 2001, the last time iw was this high was 1929 ( estimated ).
As the morticians say, "Any day you're vertical is a good day".
"Iceland has promise for aluminum smelting"
More than promise. Alcoa has operations in TX that were scheduled to move there, subject to environmental wrangling both here and there. I don't know the status of that; as of now, the stacks still blow smoke northwest of Houston.
Point is, if one has zero cost renewable energy, you're not really poor, no matter what the FIRE boys did to you in the short run.
Dead?
Death is a part of life, when it comes i would welcome it.
cardshark: also a symptom that it really doesn't matter how intelligent your comment is these days. You can count all the beans in boston, and explain why it's bad to securitize natural gas, but none of that really matters when we're faced with [fill in your own horror]
Is anyone else beside me happy to see gold crashing?
Death is a part of life, when it comes i would welcome it.
"How's life" he asked
"Taking forever"
It certainly is more helpful to be dumb, you worry less.
amoney writes:
Is anyone else beside me happy to see gold crashing?
It just did an anti-crash recently.
"Taking forever"
Anonymous | 11.15.08 - 11:26 pm |
Welcome it, not 'wish' it. There is a distinct difference.
Maybe Hank was talking about CR's comments when he said actions were "humiliating"
"It certainly is more helpful to be dumb, you worry less.
Anonymous | 11.15.08 - 11:26 pm | # "
Don't know about "helpful", but CERTAINLY less stressful...
Taking forever"
Anonymous | 11.15.08 - 11:26 pm |
Welcome it, not 'wish' it. There is a distinct difference.
Tell it to the guy from "Kingpin"
Don't know about "helpful", but CERTAINLY less stressful...
I equate less stress with helpful.
Pakistan gets money to pay interest on debt and another nation gets passed over in a time of need...could it be that geo-political forces are at work.
I hope Russia takes it over and claims soverienty over its oceans and land.
"I equate less stress with helpful."
Booze helps, too....HEY!!!Where's Lefty? (pouring the last of the bottle)
Anonymous:
Here this will help unstress you. Has anyone tried this beer?
YouTube - Iceland
UB, is that adjusted for US Dollars?
Reformed Doper: Sorry I just give you, what they give me.
Also see: Some traditional beliefs remain today; for example, some Icelanders either believe in elves or are unwilling to rule out their existence. Inhabitants of mountainous areas still pay homage to these beliefs by constructing stone piles near roads and tracks. [44] Iceland ranks first on the Human Development Index, and was recently ranked the fourth happiest country in the world
Icelandic Elf School
Also known as Álfaskólinn in Icelandic, The Icelandic Elf School teaches students and visitors about the five different kinds of elves or hidden people in myth that are believed to inhabit the country of Iceland. The school is located in Reykjavík, the country's largest city.
The school is headed by Magnús Skarphéðinsson, brother of the leader of one of Iceland's largest political parties. Magnús has a full curriculum, and certificate programs for visitors that can be earned in as little as half a day. However, the school also publishes texts on hidden people, partly for its own use in the classroom. There is also ongoing research on the elves and hidden people of Iceland.
Icelandic Elf School - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This chart sure looks like crashing gold to me..
http://www.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?style=1038&size=1&type=256&uf=8192&time=1y&freq=1d&symb=GC08Z&sid=1633395
Byerk: Yes, 2800 isk.
For those claiming Iceland has not geopolitical significance, perhaps you ignore the possibility of Russia being the lendor that provides Iceland with money, and the potential divisiveness this could foster in NATO and European relations.
Russia could probably use some aluminum for, oh, I don't know, some missiles to counter those in Poland?
Either somebody with the handle "Anonymous" has taken to discussions with himself, or the implicit threats of monitoring/filtering induced by the add-in has started to change posting behavior.
Uncle Billy Can't Spare A Dime:
Thanks for the beer!
Changed posting behavior. Watched it all day.
2800 isk.? Jesus! Who can afford that? Make it 1400 and I'm in, maybe...
Austin Tex writes:
I think there are at least 2 of us.
Not that this is worth paying attention to, but . . .
40,000 jobs to be cut at Citigroup.
Citigroup Plans to Cut 10% of Its Global Workforce: Source - Financials * US * News * Story - CNBC.com.
More people than that were protesting in Iceland
Anyone know of a CR-quality site or forum for ETFs and suchlike? I several questions bouncing around my head that aren't appropriate here.
Anonymice? Anonymeeses? Anonymoose?
That's it. Filter or no filter...
This chart sure looks like crashing gold to me..
I hope it goes down sommore. So's i can get me mitts on more of em!
Lets show the folks stoning the bankers and the "all hails" as Russia sets foot...
Iceland is just a "pawn" in the game. A frozen "pond" at that.
Icelandic Kronur since May:
Exchange Rates
I found DK.
Six ways the GOP can recover and start ruining the world again - 236.com - News
PeakVT,
Why not just throw those questions out? Ya never know...
Austin Tex:
What's this "add-in" to which you refer?
thanks
amoney,
From whence springeth your joy? IOW, what does "gold crashing" mean to you?
the world does not want to admit that Capitalism is a system of Sovereign debt becasue debt sucks. And God hates liars.
amoney writes:
"This chart sure looks like crashing gold to me.."
Nope. What you are seeing is a flight to the dollar. Notice that the chart is gold in dollars. Also, the gold that is being measured is Comex "paper" gold, not the price of physical gold.
You need to be really careful about the stats in order to understand what is really happening.
Hmmm... just yesterday we were looking at the Krugman-Helpman-Setser linkage and now this blatant fearmongering:
Brad Setser is scaring me - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
(Gene Grossman fits in there somewhere too. Both he and Krugman are at Princeton and he and Helpman were/are practically married academically)
amoney writes:
This chart sure looks like crashing gold to me..
not
during the same time oil has lost half its value gold has fallen 25%
first deflation, maybe even depression but ultimately, i think, (guess) gold will soar as the dollar is destroyed by, well, whats going on all around you right now
the dollar is toast
Where Are the Wall Street Patriots?
As the United States moved from the miseries of the Depression to the exigencies of World War II, Franklin D. Roosevelt called upon a corporate version of his ''brain trust.''
They were business executives who would help to mesh the functions of government and the functions of industry into a mighty war machine.
And they were paid... a dollar a year. Their income became their identity: "Dollar-a-Year Men.''
It's still a symbolic gesture made by men of means who become men of service. One of the things most Angelenos consistently remember about the tenure of mayor Richard Riordan is that the multi-millionaire took a symbolic salary of only a dollar a year.
Now we have, in the nation's time of crisis, men (and possibly women), captains of industry, who have already made many multiple millions in a freewheeling market -- and who may be positioning themselves to rake in even more, on the public's nickel.
That any of the billions in the federal rescue package might go to enlarge these fat cats brought the attention, and to some extent the scorn, of the Senate Banking Committee, which is neither tone-deaf nor stupid when it comes to the political dissonance of taxpayers losing jobs and homes but still footing the bill for the bailout.
The bailout moolah rules declare that the monster golden parachutes of bull markets past are now things of the past, but since it's our money, theoretically we can further dictate what happens to it -- and we definitely should.
Committee chairman Chris Dodd warned that Congress could limit pay and benefits. He called for ''restraint and modesty'' in executive compensation, surely knowing that those concepts seem to have fled the corporate world. Who can forget Dennis Kozlowski's $6,000 floral shower curtain and $2,200 gilded wastebasket?
Sayeth Dodd, "The acceptance of public funding carries with it a public obligation. [The taxpayers] are entitled to expect that those who benefit from their sacrifices will act with appropriate restraint and purpose."
Why so restraiined? I'm sure the threat had these CEOs crying themselves to sleep on their Porthault sheets.
If Dodd and his colleagues are indeed going to follow through on this, I have a suggestion for a ''restrained and modest'' salary for these business titans. A buck a year, paid quarterly, in quarters.
Minus taxes.
Patt Morrison: Where Are the Wall Street Patriots?
Great question.
I presume Bjork 2 is Icelandic, or at least writes Norwegian like a native, so could weigh in on this, but I don't think that Russia could gain much traction in Icelandic affairs.
Ethnic Scandinavians might have evolved systems our political Right calls socialist, but they are solidly anti-Fascist. Modern Russia, like modern China, is not communist. They are both central control, corporate state, systems. The Nazis were the last bunch of Fascists to think that they would have a decent reception in Norway after some initial resistence.
Iceland? Let them eat fruitwood-smoked quail with quince gastrique!
Glod is a ware. 'Prices' of wares go up and down.
Glod is a ware.
...and if you don't have it you're "no ware".
"but I don't think that Russia could gain much traction in Icelandic affairs."
Its truly AMAZING how much "traction" can be gained by a couple of combat brigades with light/medium armour/artillery...(re: Georgia)
Events are unprecedented. Historical perspective is of little use. Understanding of major systems is the only hope for understanding/prediction. And the unpredicatable nature of human response further complicates analysis. In this environment one cannot discount gold at least as insurance. We are going for one hell of a ride gentlemen and ladies.
Re: Citi
The article cites the cut of about 40K in addition to 23K it announced in Q3. Together it is more than 15% reduction of Citi's workforce.
How exactly is it going to calm the investors???
It looks very TARPish
Hot Rails to Hell
YouTube - Blue Oyster Cult - Hot Rails to Hell
Ross writes:
"Glod is a ware. 'Prices' of wares go up and down."
Values of currencies go up and down as well. Seems to be a lot of that lately.
Gold, 52 week high, 1028, 52 week low(10 biz days ago) 698=33% haircut. That's a crash folks.
Agree, turtle and sm, especially with the 'paper' gold--imho, it's just a matter of time before the light bulb turns on w/ the large specs. Once they start demanding physical delivery, the COMEX casino will crumble.
Until then, the serfs like myself will continue to pick up physical bits and pieces where we can (which are no where near spot at this point, as most well know).
amoney,
I ask again... what about that would make you happy?
Anonymous writes:
Gasbag reports Citi will announce 40,000 job cuts Monday morning:
Kudlow, Art Laffer, and Ben Stein love this stuff, they think it's funny. They preach supply side between fits of laughter. For them, the only thing more hysterical is to reduce the minimum wage to $0.50 per day and get rid of unemployment insurance. They love to see J6P getting knee capped. They have no morals.
amoney writes:
Look at the 6 year chart and compare that with a similar chart of the DOW.
But whatever pleases you.
Three auctions in three days set the payouts for Landsbanki Islands at about 99 percent, for Glitnir at more than 97 percent and for Kaupthing at more than 93 percent, based on numbers provided by auction administrators Markit and Creditex.
The date for sellers of protection to hand over the cash is set for Nov. 20.
Anyone have a chart to share (Markit LCDX.NA.10-V1) ???
Products and Services Overview
Bad link anonymous.
Every christmas my grandmother would come over or we'd visit her and she would make up a huge batch of Vinatarta, the traditional icelandic cake. Which is kind of weird in itself because I think it literally means "Vienna Tort." It's made from prunes. I know... but it's delicious!
YouTube - Vinatarta Yum...
Which reminds me... she also knitted me an icelandic sweater per year. Those things are expensive in the stores!
Amoney,
you just talking your book or you just hate wares and love Fiats.
Italians never could make cars.
"Its truly AMAZING how much "traction" can be gained by a couple of combat brigades"
Yes, but the Naval Air Base at Keflivik (BIKF) is still there, and those combat brigades would be stepping onto NATO turf. If Georgia had already been in NATO, that whole thing would have been very, very different.
Citi's layoffs will calm investors . . . investors in soup kitchens and job retraining programs who can rest easier now knowing that their time has come.
gallows humor. the unemployment rate is accelerating something fierce. even Paulson is now ashamed, as well he should be
The question of what happens with Treasuries, and what spreads are to them depending on what happens, is most definitely the question to ponder.
mlm, has a good one up.
and the trolls still barked
Hear! Hear!
Anonymous | 11.15.08 - 10:45 pm | #
I like that one too.
Alan Paulhankspan.
Bell Curve | 11.15.08 - 10:45 pm | #
see how irritating this is.
Austin Tex,
Read "Red Storm Rising"?
Austin Tex,
Ya really think so? From where I'm sitting, NATO is looking more and more like the Maginot Line, in 1939....or will be, very, VERY soon.
Why not just throw those questions out? Ya never know...
Because CR doesn't want this to be a stock site (rich - please continue to ignore this!) and my questions are 101-level.
No, I didn't. But the Russians of Clancey's books were not as hip (or, therefore, as scary, by the way) as Putin.
The Roman limes were started with Hadrian's wall and forts along the Rhine.
Ours begin with anti missle missle missles.
"For those claiming Iceland has not geopolitical significance, perhaps you ignore the possibility of Russia being the lendor that provides Iceland with money, and the potential divisiveness this could foster in NATO and European relations."
Russia will not be lending Iceland any money. It was a joke at a cocktail party. I'm not joking.
Bogus fake meeting today:
The leaders endorsed the use of clearinghouses for financial derivatives to back trades and absorb losses in case of a dealer failure. The first central clearinghouse for the $33 trillion credit-default swap market should be in operation by year-end in the U.S., under an agreement signed yesterday by three U.S. financial regulators.
Such products should be traded on exchanges or electronic trading platforms, the leaders said, and more disclosure should be required for other derivatives traded over the counter.
Executive Pay
The leaders said executive compensation should be managed to ``avoid excessive risk-taking,'' while stopping short of calling for any caps.
Minus taxes.
pa...t_b_144067.html
Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post
Great question.
zoom | 11.15.08 - 11:44 pm |
I love the hater-aid.
wheres morroco_bama and DT?
Austin Tex,
Doesn't mean they couldn't be creative. "Operation Polar Glory" was a clever surprise takeover of Iceland, effectively neutralizing the SOSUS line and allow Russian bombers free passage to wreak havoc on Atlantic shipping.
Credit Swap Clearinghouse to Be Running by Year-End (Update2)
Credit Swap Clearinghouse to Be Running by Year-End (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
``I would be stunned if anybody would be able to run anything by the end of the year but it's a nice thing to be able to say to the market,'' said Lindsey, who now works as an adviser to hedge funds and institutional investors at New York- based Callcott Group LLC.
Group Agreement
The Fed, Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission signed memorandum of understanding today that they said will provide consistent oversight of the clearinghouses and the credit-default swap market. The group laid out guidelines they said would provide more public information on potential risks and also lessen the chance of systemic losses.
Uncle Billy Can't Spare A Dime=
Hmmm... just yesterday we were looking at the Krugman-Helpman-Setser linkage and now this blatant fearmongering:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com...-is-scaring-me/
(Gene Grossman fits in there somewhere too. Both he and Krugman are at Princeton and he and Helpman were/are practically married academically)
Uncle Billy Can't Spare A Dime | Homepage | 11.15.08 - 11:43 pm |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
sorry i missed this linkage reference, please enlighten. i'm no fan of Krugman, but have not found any errors with setser.
it's kinda hard to state data nowadays that's not frightening, so not sure if fearmongering applies if the data is correct.
thanks!
"If Georgia had already been in NATO, that whole thing would have been very, very different."
Germany would have to agree to have Georgia and Ukraine in NATO. What are the chances of Germany accepting the risk of another go round with Russia?
As they say here - just askin'.
Comrades Dima and Vladichka are the good Czars.
Anytime they wish, the price of energy and metals can quintuple with a keystroke. Be grateful they are playing our game.
Saudi King Pledges Global `Stability' in Oil Markets at G-20
Comrade Bear,
Have always been a big Clancy fan...despite the fact its "fiction", there's a lot to be learned about geopolitics in his stuff.
Credit Swap Clearinghouse to Be Running by Year-End (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
butt nekkid swimmers are about to walk away, if this one dont get yer attention, ya aint payin attention.
"If Georgia had already been in NATO, that whole thing would have been very, very different."
The real question is why should any nation align themselves with a declining power such as the US who are either reluctant or unable to aid them.
gold at 1028 is no less a fantasy than oil at $148.
I'm enjoying my deflation. Are you?
According to BBC, Iceland Prime Minister did ask Russia for a $4 Bil loan. however, it did not materialize.
BBC NEWS | Business | Russia's role in rescuing Iceland
"If Georgia had already been in NATO, that whole thing would have been very, very different."
Yes they would of been. Georgia wouldn't of bombed Russian peacekeepers in S.Ossetia which led to the Russian response and escalation.
Baltic Black Monday runs over the European Banks of Denial that drowns upside down homedebtors in the United States in the wake of the G20 communique.
I liked when mp posted for a couple days.
MrM,
I recall reading that on Bloomberg a few days back. Offhand, my guess is Putin is merely waiting. Anybody who managed to get to the top of the KGB, is both smart, AND ruthless.
***** SPAM Filter Installation Instructions *****
OK things are getting out of hand so I've decided to post a set of step by step instruction on how to install a browser with a killfile to filter out the trolls.
1) Install Mozilla/Foxfire. It's the successor to Netscape. Way better than internet exploder. Go here:
Mozilla | Firefox web browser & Thunderbird email client
2) Install greasemonkey. It's a utility that allows you to customize the way webpages are displayed by running "scripts". Go here:
Greasemonkey
3) Install the script called "killfile" that adds a line to every post in haloscan that you can click on to make every comment from that user disappear forever (if they go back on their meds you can click it again to unkill them).
killfile for Greasemonkey
Happy surfing...
Yah know that weird shape of the Treasury Curve; just as I thought, it's the 20-year constant maturity series, causing a weird inversion, but then again, I have to bake some brownies now...
here
The real question is why should any nation align themselves with a declining power such as the US who are either reluctant or unable to aid them.
No, the real question is wht Georgia did align themselves with a declining power such as the US who are either reluctant or unable to aid them.
EEngineer,
Your just adding trash to chaos, so why worry? I'm guilty too, maybe we all are?
Amoney,
I watched oil 'plummet' from $40 to $13 in the mid 80's.
So, what's your point? Stuff trades up and down. When oil is $200, who cares?
A barrel is a barrel and a price is a price. Take it or leave it. We are pushing soooo much money into the system that even $200 oil will not be upsetting.
RE: Russian incursion in Iceland, and NATO strength in general.
I can't disagree that there is not risk of Russian adventurism, and that NATO might cave in the face of the Bear. But, in fact, the western military isn't anywhere as snuggly with either Russian or China as the corporate interests are.
Google "Malabar 2007" to see how US, India, Singapore and Japan respond annually to China's 'string of pearls" bases along the top of the Indian ocean. In response to Chinese protests, Malabar 08, just finished, was held a little farther away from the Chinese bases, but it was still held, anchored by carrier Reagan, whose group protects the Malacca strait.
So I have to believe that, if there really was concern right now that Russia might be getting ready to do a little fishing, there might have been a little more attention paid to Iceland.
Someone in Washington D.C. is trying to figure out what happened.
Google Trends: austrian economics
I didn't know:
January 18, 2008
Bobby Fischer, flawed chess genius, dies in Iceland
Bobby Fischer, flawed chess genius, dies in Iceland - Times Online
Austin Tex,
I wonder just how "snuggly" corporate interests are with Russia, currently(to wit, BPs recent "adventures" there). Putin's definition of "capitalism" runs pretty wide of the Western mark.
I'd guess that China's viewed (perhaps correctly?)as a greater threat, but there's NO question that Putin can DEFINITELY piss in the punch bowl.
amoney writes:
Look at the 6 year chart and compare that with a similar chart of the DOW.
amoney writes:
Gold, 52 week high, 1028, 52 week low(10 biz days ago) 698=33% haircut. That's a crash folks.
first, i cant speek for others but i dont claim that gold is the be all and end all of investments
anybody that puts a majority of their money in any of the PMs is not being prudent
second gold is currently trading on the spot market at 748 an ounce... thats the 25% off of the high i was talking about
just try buying an eagle or a maple at that price ...cant be done
finally your comparison with the dow in the past 6 years???
if you are still a long term investor in the dow 30 i will pray for you...i prefer to hold a modest position in gold or silver under these circumstances.
but hey what ever suits your purposes...im not looking to sell you anything
Google Trends: austrian economics
this ties into the blog traffic reported last month on this site of economic blog traffic.
EconDirectory | Gongol.com
austrian economic blog traffic?
Inflation has made a triple top and is heading south
Google Trends: inflation
Deflation has started its parabolical rise. Currently resting below resistance level set in 1930.
Google Trends: deflation
Why all this talk about Georgia. It is in Russia's sphere. Always has been.
Most misread Russia. The pinch points of the world ARE the Malaca straights and that smallish waterway in Turkey where Sir Winston lost his nerve.
People need to read a little history before they become all experts on world affairs. Jeez, our education system must really suck.
I guess that CR wonders why I post off topic here. I wonder why I post at all. Except for the very few, the level of , eh screw it....Rent a life. Rent a wife. No-one pays full price anymore, just installments on life.
"Is anyone else beside me happy to see gold crashing?
It's not crashing but if it was, why would you be happy about it? Gold is public enemy 1 to the central banks who continue manipulating it lower through ETFs and Comex in order to control finance through fiat currency.
This will end one day, hopefully sooner than later.
Comrade Peronista,
Be glad this isn't ancient Greece...ya know what happened to the "bearers of bad tidings"....
Comrade Peronista writes:
"Someone in Washington D.C. is trying to figure out what happened."
Hahahaha! Great find. Hope they are fast learners.
Comrade Peronista: the chart should be normalized by the number of internet users in a given country
"Georgia wouldn't of bombed Russian peacekeepers in S.Ossetia which led to the Russian response and escalation."
You are right. But "peacekeepers" is one of those terms that's steeped in irony even when none is intended.
I think it's fair to say that, as open turf, previously Russian empire, with ethnic enclaves, and no real alliances, there were bad decisions all around. Always, one empire (in this case, the R.) hates that kind of vacuum, and another empire (the US) seeks to use it.
Oh yeah, and there was that oil pipeline in the mix as well, just to up the stakes.
Ya know Icelamd can just go it alone and say nope we failed.....tough nuggers on you..kiss off all foreign debts
Now thats a brave move and one I think they should engage
Check out this typo in Yahoo Finance:
CNOOC Ltd. (CEO)\t-6.52\t3397.0B\t520.89\t33.29\t6.30\t0.07\t153.64\t39.88\t1940.75
That's right, $3.397T.
amoney writes:
gold at 1028 is no less a fantasy than oil at $148.
i'll make a prediction or two (guess)
soon after the world claws its way out of this depression, oil will reach $500 a barrel... and gold will be close to $2000 an ounce
not because gold will be worth more, but because the dollar will be worth less and worthless
Austin Tex writes:
"Its truly AMAZING how much "traction" can be gained by a couple of combat brigades"
Yes, but the Naval Air Base at Keflivik (BIKF) is still there, and those combat brigades would be stepping onto NATO turf. If Georgia had already been in NATO, that whole thing would have been very, very different.
Austin Tex | 11.15.08 - 11:52 pm | #
No - geography is more important than policy, strategy or tactics. Georgia is & will remain 'Russian' no matter what NATO says because of where it is & where Russia is.
However Iceland is out in the middle of nowhere and 'in play'.
defaltionary austrian economic global traffic.
is it really peak comment and thought of mind as the Austin Tex post would indicate?
A week or so ago I commented that the CR comments threads were a genetic algorithm; I wasn't joking. Rather than describe what I mean, see Human-based genetic algorithm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
(Texas Tech was idle, Lubbock still has a shot at a national title)
mock turtle,
Have to agree...and putting my money where my mouth is..(on oil, anyway...not into PMs yet).
"A barrel is a barrel and a price is a price. Take it or leave it. We are pushing soooo much money into the system that even $200 oil will not be upsetting."
That might be the dumbest comment I've ever seen here
"That might be the dumbest comment I've ever seen here"
Markar | 11.16.08 - 12:32 am | #
Not if you're a trader.
ruh roh and duh, we are all zombies now -
Freddie Mac says it is worth less than zero
Freddie Mac, the US mortgage giant, yesterday admitted that it is so overwhelmed by its liabilities that without government backing, it would no longer be a viable business.
Freddie Mac says it is worth less than zero - Times Online
However Iceland is out in the middle of nowhere and 'in play'. - dryfly
Nowhere is relative especially if you want to give your subs unlimited access to the Atlantic.
Russian Strings with Iceland...... Deep water ports along with cold storage
Austin Tex,
Dallas boy here. I well remember the push for the Turk pipeline. I was in Moscow and they were pissed that the U.S. would use NATO and potential EU membership to gain approval.
Moscow has plans to lock up the Caspian gas and divert it and some oil EAST>>>>>>>>>>> Stupid Americans can't tell Shite from apple butter.
Our State Dept. is the absolute sorriest excuse I have ever seen. If Pres Obama appoints sheila Hilly to that post, it will be the road to perdition.
We neeeeeeeed above all a State Dept that knows how the HELL the WORLD WORKS>>>>> They call it the State Dept. because you should have STATESMEN there, not political thugees...
Rant over. More hot chocholate.
Markar wrote
That might be the dumbest comment I've ever seen here
Markar | 11.16.08 - 12:32 am |
i think you missed his point
but hey
i been here at CR comments for more than two years and seen way more dumber comments than that
mostly posted by me
When oil hits $200/barrel here we are Iceland. Game over.
ot because gold will be worth more, but because the dollar will be worth less and worthless
mock turtle | 11.16.08 - 12:27 am |
~~~~~~~~~~
yep, that's how i've been seeing it for quite awhile. getting closer every day, but got not there yet.
Ross,
Couldn't agree more. Anybody who thinks the oil "bubble" was purely a speculative play (granted,a PART of it was) doesn't pay attention to what's happening on the world stage.
I presume Bjork 2 is Icelandic...
Looks like Bjork 2 == Kona to me.
@the poster fomerly known as ni:
"I'd guess that China's viewed (perhaps correctly?)as a greater threat"
To my mind, Russia is the bigger threat. China's actions are just to protect it's oil supply through the Indian Ocean and through Malacca. If they can get the infrastructure on the Irawaddy in Burma so that they don't need (and hence could disrupt) Malacca to tranship the oil, that's the biggest fear.
Russia, however, more basically wants its empire back, I think.
I've never viewed gold as an investment, nor do I view it as a store of value.
I view it as a special purpose hedge.
It's just me.
Markar wrote in 1986 that oil would never again see $40 a barrel.
I love deflation. Waiting for silver quarters and copper pennies.
the poster fomerly known as ni
whats you timing on the oil play
im still guessing that even with all the muscle opec can manage the world gdp contraction will overtake thier efforts at price manipulation
so downside risk is significant at least thru the next year ...no?
thanks mp.
that confirms buy gold in the current environment.
is gold a more important numantistic than oil/gas?
I love deflation. Waiting for silver quarters and copper pennies.
Ross | 11.16.08 - 12:44 am | #
Enjoy it while it lasts!
Facts about oil:
Good luck folks, the bubble has burst. Now start protecting your money and move to cash and diversified currencies (incl some gold).
I currently have some, but I don't enjoy having it as it makes me very uncomfortable.
The world will flock to the US$ and US Treasuries as long as there is no viable alternative.
Gold is not a viable alternative - not nearly enough to sustain world commerce.
Yen is way too narrow a country to sustain trade in yen.
Euro looks shakey, but the EU is bigger in population and economically competitive - but they have no central bank and treasury equal in power to the Fed and US Treasury.
A basket of currencies would be very hard to sustain as currencies vary against each other.
If the oil producers were currently strong, they could name whatever they wanted as reserve currency, and that would be that. But the IF isn't true.
This kind of logic is why Paulson thinks he can f*ck the other countries and they'll ask for another round.
But ants or bees can bring a large animal down and strip the bones (in the case of the ants) in a very short time.
We need some serious fence mending, and lots of humility ahead or the shovel in the anthill will be our undoing.
"Lubbock still has a shot at a national title"
and the Cubs had a shot at the Series.
When either happens, it'll be a sign of the Final Days.
Hmmm...please bear with me a moment. Obama has been heavily seeding the next cabinet with Clinton-era retreads. Its been pointed out, adinfinitium that the Clinton years where "prosperous" ones. Some say Clinton "benefited" from the Reagon era (won't go there..not trying to start political "stuff"). From that standpoint, his choices "make sense".
Russia doesn't want its Empire back. It never really lost it.
Russia wants to be left the hell alone. They do not understand Western money thought. They never will but are forced to play the only game in town. Expect weird reactions from time to time.
China increasing gold reserves; Saudis just purchased $3.5 billion in gold.
Iran moving to gold reserves.
Connect the dots--$ is doomed.
Nowhere is relative especially if you want to give your subs unlimited access to the Atlantic.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 12:34 am | #
Subs (navy in general) can deny the other the possession - they can't 'possess' themselves as long as the opponent has a viable Navy that can contest.
Iceland will always be in play.
Eliot Spitzer in the Wash Post on Wall Street's role and regulatory problems...
How to Ground The Street - washingtonpost.com
Dryfly
are you playing Risk?
Fried
some jokes are just too easy to be worth making. regulatory problems. uh huh.
Markar writes:
China increasing gold reserves; Saudis just purchased $3.5 billion in gold.
Iran moving to gold reserves.
Because their other recent attempts at global economic policy has been so successful?
smells like a dollar carry trade may be coming up. I like bucky till February.
selling gold/oil.
buying German and Brazillain bonds.
bartman writes:
Burning flags? Try hoisting the banksters and their politcal cronies from every lamp post with piano wire - that may teach them a lesson they'll never forget.
Almost seems like a waste of good piano wire...almost.
"Russia wants to be left the hell alone. "
If that is true, it would sure work for me. And it would work, probably, for the Estonians, Poles, Czechs, and many others as well. But I doubt that they really believe it.
i have to go eat.
Ill be back tomorrow.
thanks CR I really appreciate the comments section.
Almost seems like a waste of good piano wire...almost.
Republicans are TRAITORS | 11.16.08 - 12:53 am | #
guillotines are sustainable and reusable.
mp writes:
I've never viewed gold as an investment
strictly speaking you are right and i called it an investment, loosely speaking, above.
gold except for its minor industrial uses is a "dead" investment...and therefore not really an investment from the standpoint of the classic 4 inputs
land labor entrepreneurial expertise (risk) and capital
i agree with your choice of "hedge"
Night all...
"Because their other recent attempts at global economic policy has been so successful?"
Rob Dawg
Because they are doing their best to get out of the dollar. There aren't many choices. What do you buy, Icelandic Krona? Gold and Yen is all there is until someone else comes up with a credible currency.
I like it my Portland Patriot.
joe shmoe writes:
Dryfly
are you playing Risk?
joe shmoe | 11.16.08 - 12:51 am | #
I hated Risk - had too many friends & family in Nam. Besides wars are won & lost due to logistics & resources. Monopoly is a more realistic 'war game' than Risk.
But geography & its effect on logistics is why Georgia will always be 'Russian' & Iceland will always be in play.
Because their other recent attempts at global economic policy has been so successful?
The only nation that is attempting a 'global' economic policy is the US to my knowledge and it's been fun while it lasted.
Because their other recent attempts at global economic policy has been so successful?
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 12:52 am | #
True up to now. Dollar hegemony has sort of crimped the rest of the world's impact on global economic policy.But unless we are prepared to start WWIII to defend it, it WILL be challenged.
In the context of warfare, carriers are obsolete. Floating airfields only work with absolute protection. Ergo destroyers and subs.
Hyper rocket torpedos changes the balance. No escape. PT boat and aerial launched is a game changer. Kinda like the foreward pass.
The only nation that is attempting a 'global' economic policy is the US to my knowledge and it's been fun while it lasted. - Anonymous
Can you repeat that in Mandarin?
You need to build up to mob executions.
You start with burning flags, then burning effigies, then on to the real thing.
JimPortlandOR writes:
The world will flock to the US$ and US Treasuries as long as there is no viable alternative.
Gold is not a viable alternative - not nearly enough to sustain world commerce. (and goes on to mention currencies)
you are so right and here is where the push for one global currency not the dominion of any one country comes into play.
the US has had a number of big advantages regarding our debts...you named several, heres another
we get to pay the world back the money we owe them denominated in US dollars , be they appreciated or worthless dollars at that...
some day they wont take be screwed by us and like it.
Re: Spitzer: " Institutional shareholders, in particular mutual funds, pension funds and endowments, must reengage in corporate governance..."
IMHO, that is the key to re-storing market confidence, i.e, you have to be sure that your mutual fund manager is aligned with you, the customer, versus being paid off by corporations to look the other way.
In the context of warfare, carriers are obsolete. Floating airfields only work with absolute protection. Ergo destroyers and subs.
Hyper rocket torpedos changes the balance. No escape. PT boat and aerial launched is a game changer. Kinda like the foreward pass.
Ross | 11.16.08 - 12:58 am | #
We'll get that lesson taught to us in the Persian Gulf someday. PT boats are floating box cutters.
Ross writes:
"In the context of warfare, carriers are obsolete."
One could argue that carriers have been obsolete since ICBMs got accurate. You only need to get close with a nuke, and good luck stopping incoming MIRVs. But they are still useful for some operations.
cracker's gone to eat, but speaking of brazil -
Brazil mulls its own bailout as it heads to G20
Brazil's benchmark equity index, the Bovespa, has lost roughly 44% since the beginning of the year, largely because of the index's heavy weighting from commodity-related stocks, such as oil giant Petroleo Brasiliero (PBR:
petroleo brasileiro sa petro
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Brazil-considers-its-own-bailout/story.aspx?guid={7ADD5629-243E-4765-8887-BB86792259CE}
Can you repeat that in Mandarin?
No. But there are numerous translations around on the web.
We'll get that lesson taught to us in the Persian Gulf someday. PT boats are floating box cutters.
dryfly
We'll have the relearn that lesson seeing as we didn't learn it from the Cole.
For a good comparison of what is happening to the USA. Study the Spanish Empire, its rise and its fall into centuries of darkness.
Substitute Gold from South America with the World's Reserve Currency.
For contemporary explanation and warning against the folly (and no-one listening), substitute the School of Salamanca with von Mises Institute.
For time period before default and absolute decay. Be patient, it's not gonna blow up tomorrow. It's a long grind to the bottom. When you die, it's still a grind and it still hasn't blown up. But McMansions areas will not look pretty.
All the best, protect your money and your job.
"Georgia will always be 'Russian' & Iceland will always be in play."
And that is probably the pure truth on this issue.
"In the context of warfare, carriers are obsolete."
True, but unlike tall civilian structures that can be taken out by surprise air attack, a carrier in the middle of its group can only be taken out by a another state, and no state has been ready (yet) to take on what comes after that.
Midnight CT. Good night.
1 world currency = total global domination by an elite cartel of central bankers.We can only pray it doesn't happen.
Cracker, for when you return later:
made a comment re HD the other night that frankly regret.
Didn't come out the way intended and apologize. Also utilize the same org for donating and shopping.
Just massively ticked at the stupidity and utter sense of apathy by the staff there.
As to gold, I have some physical and will move to obtain more; also other PM. And uncomfortable keeping and moving to disperse it outside of banks.
Avoiding paper gold since the paper will be meaningless if things really go down. push comes to shove, I can't trade paper for PM in any meaningful way.
And today was the day that I used the term "depression" with the two older kids. They know things are brewing and middle one has a good grasp of things. As to some close personal friends this AM, advised them to get stocked and used the term "collapse".
Honestly, in the past year or so, I feel as though my mental hardwiring has been ripped out and replaced with something else completely.
Can't imagine what the hell mp is looking at.
Again, regional currencies backed by gold?
And offhand, if gold shoots up, will there be a subsequent generalized rise in Silver to approximate the Gold/Silver ratio? I suspect that eventually, but not sure.
this question of scamperous posts reminds me....Michael J fox told a story about how everybody got together in a circle and put their problems in the middle of the circle. When asked to pick a problem, everybody took their own back. These comments are the same way. We can ask CR and whine and cry, but in the end, mayhaps we lose the vibe and flow of the exchange, and wish for our problems back??
Four most expensive word on earth, "something must be done".
dryfly
agree in part
carrier groups have their use
but not so much in the persian gulf especially as approaching the straits of oman...a death trap
1 world currency = total global domination by an elite cartel of central bankers.We can only pray it doesn't happen.
We have it already and that's the USD. Upwards of 60% of the reserves of the world are in it.
Let's hope the USD doesn't collapse.
Peronista,
The school at Salamanca was indeed a good one. The sober Monks were the first to determine a 'fair' price which had vexed the Church for centuries.
13th century. "The fair price is the last price of an uncoerced transaction."
Anon, it will collapse. Just be patient.
California is burning down.
norma | 11.15.08 - 10:34 pm | #
Too pessimistic. I'm an optimist, I prefer to think of it as "California is burning up."
ps
dryfly
if i may ask
a year or two ago i remember reading some incitefull geo-political comments from a poster named dryfly over at Sic Semper Tyrannis
was that you jousting, over ideas, with Col. W.P. Lang
Ross, nice one. They should go and explain that to Congress.
Again, regional currencies backed by gold?
Never happen HD - there will never be a paper-metal hard peg ever again.
But gold might move to the center of the currency arbitrage 'net' replacing the dollar. It won't be that countries fix their exch rates to gold but rather they will all float independently with gold the central reserve 'currency' not the dollar.
Everything still floats - everything still 'fiat' - but w/ gold as the central reserve currency NOT the dollar (as was the case under BWII).
I think the Chinese & the Saudis are telling us w/ their recent purchases that is the direction.
JMHO.
"Let's hope the USD doesn't collapse."
With debt 350% of GDP and growing how can it not? The only question is when.
Discussing U.S. military power will be quite irrelevant in a few years time. In the meantime, dream on.
a year or two ago i remember reading some incitefull geo-political comments from a poster named dryfly over at Sic Semper Tyrannis
was that you jousting, over ideas, with Col. W.P. Lang
mock turtle | 11.16.08 - 1:14 am | #
not me - but I don't own the copyright on 'dryfly' either.
I tend to follow Haggai 2:8.
Okay, I say the above in jest, but it has made me think about where I'm putting my money for some reason. Same thing with Gen 13:2.
We don't see many of those coins with Caesar's face on them anymore.
One could argue that carriers have been obsolete since ICBMs got accurate. You only need to get close with a nuke, and good luck stopping incoming MIRVs. But they are still useful for some operations.
sm_landlord | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 1:04 am | #
Mission Accomplished.
Comrade Peronista- yes, indeed, the acquisition of massive gold reserves from the new world caused hyperinflation which melted spain and hit europe for quite a bit. nice touch with the School of Salamanca, hee hee.
but, it seems clear to me we are in a deflationary spiral currently.
Serf AG. That's correct. But long term......
dryfly:
thanks. will chew on that awhile.
Re: Spitzer and mutual funds, etc.
That's not an original idea by Spitzer. John Bogle wrote a book called "Battle for the Soul of Capitalism" in 2005 and he basically said the same thing. I'm not sure it's Bogle's original idea, but as far back as 2005 Bogle wrote a book on a lot of the stuff happening now. Institutional owners not pushing for reforms on behalf of their share-holders because they get their backs scratched, same thing with all the bad accounting practices; where Tyco and Enron were just the tip of the iceburg as far as messed up books.
He also thought it was foolish the way stocks were valued based on weather they hit or miss the earnings estimates. People just don't read books anymore...
mission acomplished
yes
the most expensive movie prop i can remember
the carrier... Lincoln?
Serf AG. That's correct. But long term......
Comrade Peronista | 11.16.08 - 1:22 am
heck yeh, that could well be the pattern long term. it's quite wobbly to predict with this much noise, but hyperinflation locally post deflation is not unlikely.
One could argue that carriers have been obsolete since ICBMs got accurate
Depends on what you need to do, doesn't it? I remember when they said that about battleships, but sometimes it is fun to be able to toss a small car load of stuff over mountains twenty miles inland. Maybe not cost effective, true, but armaments are hard to value in times of war and in times of peace.
the carrier... Lincoln?
mock turtle | 11.16.08 - 1:27 am | #
Don't know - good trivia question.
Institutional owners not pushing for reforms on behalf of their share-holders because they get their backs scratched
Or is a free-rider problem?
To make publicly-held companies truly responsive some shareholder rights legislation needs to be passed. And Delaware nuked.
One could argue that carriers have been obsolete
And that guy who developed TNT thought he had made war obsolete. Felt so guilty he started giving prizes for peace.
best to you all ... signing off
and a prayer for Tanta's recovery
"But gold might move to the center of the currency arbitrage 'net' replacing the dollar. It won't be that countries fix their exch rates to gold but rather they will all float independently with gold the central reserve 'currency' not the dollar.
Everything still floats - everything still 'fiat' - but w/ gold as the central reserve currency NOT the dollar (as was the case under BWII)."
I've always wondered how this would work long term. Gold backing prevents unlimited credit growth and I assume this is the main reason the US moved away from gold backed currency.
What is to stop an major currency from once again repudiating a gold peg in the future?
hmmm, as i think about it, global hyperinflation post global deflation is also not unlikely. assuming TPTB have not agreed and implemented BWIII (or II depending on who you ask) soon enough. when does decoupling occur?
'night.
heck yeh, that could well be the pattern long term. it's quite wobbly to predict with this much noise, but hyperinflation locally post deflation is not unlikely.
serf Alan Greenspend | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 1:27 am | #
In 1500s they had to find gold in the New World and haul it back (only so much gold & a lot of work to bring back - once back there isn't a lot more.
Not so w/ fiat - so in our situation the only thing that limits its creation is our own discipline to NOT create it. Looking at the line up for the TARP I'm am not holding out a lot of hope for discipline.
PO'd CA:
I suppose that if there's some parity between economic powers, then that would keep everyone to the beaten path.
Otherwise, one power becoming too powerful vis a vis the others. Other option when the power was faced with econ disaster and had no option.
China isn't viewed as a threat simply because they have no natural resources, including fresh water.
Air craft carriers are a bit out of date. But the US is cultivating renewed ties with the Philippines, a country whose support will be vital in any coming 'disputes' in the pacific. There are already a number of mini-bases on Philippine soil, and Mindinao port cities are a good place to look if you want to make some money in the next decade. Tremendous natural resources.
homedad,
Add-On is here: CR Companion
One could argue that carriers have been obsolete since ICBMs got accurate
They aren't really in same functional category so isn't the way to phrase the issue. Accurate ICBMs just mean that there won't be any carriers floating around after a nuclear war.
It's the nuclear bomber that was rendered obsolete by the ICBM. And the ICBM was made at least redundant by the mass deployment of SLBMs, if not obsolete.
I've always wondered how this would work long term. Gold backing prevents unlimited credit growth and I assume this is the main reason the US moved away from gold backed currency.
What is to stop an major currency from once again repudiating a gold peg in the future?
Pissed Off In California | 11.16.08 - 1:36 am | #
There wouldn't BE a peg - all rates would float wrt each other.
So in the forex you would have euro-USD rate, USD-GBP rate GBP-euro rate AND a gold-euro rate, gold-USD rate and a gold-GBP rate... same for all currencies.
They would all be held 'together' by forex traders & specs' - if these rates got out of balance the spec's & traders would arbitrage the shit out of it - bringing it back into balance very shortly.
Under BWII the keystone in that floating arbitrage net is the USD - that is what's cracking now. So what replaces it?
sdtfs(Unrated) writes:
"Depends on what you need to do, doesn't it? I remember when they said that about battleships, but sometimes it is fun to be able to toss a small car load of stuff over mountains twenty miles inland. Maybe not cost effective, true, but armaments are hard to value in times of war and in times of peace."
Exactly my point. The folks that run these systems understand that as well. In the right circumstances, you can really raise hell with nothing more than a big cannon mounted on a ship. Or a small air wing flying off a ship. Eventually, carriers will be reduced to shooting up pirates off of Somalia or some other miserable excuse for a failed state. But that time has not yet arrived. Meanwhile, they serve as meaningful threats or stalking horses, depending on how they are deployed. Anyone who lands a shot on one can expect to be vaporized before they see the sun set, and that is worth something.
Putitonmytab:
Thanks.
homedad:
anything for an Excellent rating!