It's two quarters of negative economic growth to get a recession. I'm rusty on my technical milestones here... How many quarters of recession until a revolution?
I should be more precise in my wording. When is the soonest future date that (er, "might") NBER can call the commencement date of the present downturn?
John Mauldin had mentioned this before. The eventual structural weakening of the Euro. Basically one or two... or maybe 5 countries go down and the healthy ones have to rescue them.
Now if all of Europe catches a cold... Who will rescue them? China?
I think more and more there will be a major shift value of fiat currencies. If everyones currency is weakening then its going to be wierd....
Strangely, I have to confess that I enjoy it more the longer it takes for the dating committee to "call" a recession. I don't know why?
Also, I always assumed Bond Girl just worked in the fixed income markets (I never made the connection to James Bond), so, I've got some rewiring to do, I guess.
energyecon:
How could we apply Hubbert's curve to the short maturity rollover coming up (per your analysis-nice work BTW)?
I think December '07 through August '08 was a GHOST recession-kind of like a ghost signal you can get with analog broadcast TV. We are in the real one now-the real signal.
When NBER calls the official recession expect a bear-market rally and CNBS calling for a bottom in the market. All the pundits know that recessions never last more than 12 months and the market bottoms 6 months before the recession ends.
feldstein said recently that calling the date for the onset of recession was NBER's goal, without any further revisions required. Remember that econ figures are often revised.
Recall a year ago and almost every day since that the Wright B model said there was no way in hell there would be a recession...Sebastian you were so wrong!
The answer is simple. We are engaged in the illusion of an ecomony, not an economy. Ergo, it is far more important to maintain the illusion of money and stock price and pension funds than to create real products which that paper ultimately represents.
Exit writes:
"I should be more precise in my wording. When is the soonest future date that (er, "might") NBER can call the commencement date of the present downturn?"
The NBER can pronounce the recession whenever it wants. It waits for all the data to be out, and revised, then announces the start date. The announcement typically coincides with the end of the recession.
Recession dating is very convenient for economists when they want to explain past history. But it's useless for market analysis, since you can't ensure you are in a recession until it's already bloody obvious. All you needed to do to know that the U.S. was in recession in early 2008 was to look at the level of bond yields.
The reason why this recession was not obvious to the economists is the fact that economists focus a lot on real GDP. (Although the 2 negative GDP quarters is not the NBER definition.) In the curent recession, falling demand hit "real" imports, and so the damage to real GDP was cushioned. (Imports subtract from GDP, so falling demand and falling imports cancel.) The moonshot in oil prices makes the focus on "real" GDP somewhat dubious, but economists have habits that they cannot shake.
--
China and India will join soon. My best estimate is before 2009Q2 is out.
Global recession in 2009, global depression in 2010, and Greater Depression thereafter. 10-year yield will go below 2% some time in 2009. Inflationists are a bunch of dopes (thoroughly brainwashed by propaganda).
None that I can recall. He was like a retard ignoring OVERWHELMING evidence and still using his silly irrelevent Wright Model B. It was truly remarkable, the level of intransigence. And he would never accept a wager, which made him nothing but a troll...
Duarte writes:
"why can't AIG fail and the automakers can? What a joke."
The assumption appears to be that an AIG failure would probably take out a good portion of the banking system. If the banking system ceases to function, so goes other securities markets, and the whole thing unravels. That is what happened in the 1930s.
I can't tell you for sure that such an outcome would be guaranteed, but policymakers would not want to risk even a slight probability of a repeat.
As for GM, the general feeling is that they need to restructure. If they go into Chapter 11, they won't be liquidated, they will just attempt to put themselves on a sustainable footing. There will be damage to the parties they have bleeding cash to, but it's hard to pretend that they can follow their current course much longer.
I often find when people are intransigent, it makes me tighten up the logic of my assertions. Whether they are convinced is not the point. Just that I'm satisfied I've come to a rational conclusion.
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has converted financial reserves into gold to avoid future problems, an adviser to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in comments published on Saturday, after the price of oil fell more than 60 percent from a peak in July.
"With the plans of the presidency...the country's money reserves were changed into gold so that we wouldn't be faced with many problems in the future," presidential adviser Mojtaba Samareh-Hashemi was quoted as saying by business daily Poul.
Well guys, that settles it. We're 100% in gold now, nothing can possibly harm us. Gold is safe, you see...
--
"None that I can recall. He [Sebastian] was like a retard ignoring OVERWHELMING evidence and still using his silly irrelevent Wright Model B. It was truly remarkable, the level of intransigence. And he would never accept a wager, which made him nothing but a troll..."
bearly,
A perfect example of a born-and-bred American dope. I had to suffer his idiocy during 2006-07 in another forum.
Based on his comments in the forum (not here) he is a born loser. Many dopes end up as losers. Most Crooks end up as winners in America, more so then anywhere and ever before in America itself.
I've converted all of my holdings into hoopajoops to "avoid further problems." See, I'm keeping the things I am hedging against vague so all my bases are covered.
What were Iranian reserves in before they switched to gold? I thought they made a big deal to switching over to pricing oil in euros and that they moved their reserves into euros already.
As things continue to deteriorate, I hope that those of us who are OK will try to be especially polite and cordial. Of course, I hope that those who are suffering will be cordial as well.
wonder what the severity is. x points up to x points down in x timeframe.
After the weekend i have had, I am beginning to think we are in for a real fast crash, kind of like turning off the hose.
Looking at rentals w/ the misses. Rents on 2k SF in the East Valley advertised for 1400/MO two weeks ago, advertising for 800/MO today. One lady started CRYING, begging us to rent. She was the friggin REALTOR!?!?!?
"why can't AIG fail and the automakers can?" AIG is at the core of the CDS mess. If they go down, it all blows up at once. Based on Paulson's public statements, they were unaware of how bad the market/economy was.
Every congressman who voted for Paulson's TARP should be impeached for stupidity! Paulson is the Smoot-Hawley of this depression. The wrong solution at the wrong time by the wrong Treasury Secretary.
Blackhalo writes:
"why can't AIG fail and the automakers can?" AIG is at the core of the CDS mess. If they go down, it all blows up at once. Based on Paulson's public statements, they were unaware of how bad the market/economy was.
Blackhalo | 11.16.08 - 8:27 pm
The grind goes on. BTW: silver will do better than gold.
Bigotry is as American as apple-Pie among born-and-bred American dopes. No one is bred with greater disdain for the "other," any other, not just race or ethnicity. Bigotry towards "others" makes a born-and-bred American dope feel good about himself. What else he has going for himself?! You are a sad case, but you are entitled to display your bigotry at will and as often as you need to. Yes, you do have the need.
As for GM, the general feeling is that they need to restructure. If they go into Chapter 11, they won't be liquidated, they will just attempt to put themselves on a sustainable footing. There will be damage to the parties they have bleeding cash to, but it's hard to pretend that they can follow their current course much longer.
bond guy | 11.16.08 - 8:14 pm | #
IF they can get a DIP (Debtor-in-possesion) loan big enough to allow them to continue operating and they don't trigger a massive CDS default event and nervous creditors that have been granted the ridiculous exemptions under the 2005 law do not tear them apart, then they might emerge whole from Chapter 11.
Since none of the banks have been making large DIP loans and show no inclination to do so, it is a moot point. If they try Chapter 11, it will fail due to lack of operating cash and they will be liquidated.
The DIP loan that Circuit City obtained had onerous terms that required them to put up the entire Canadian division as collateral resulting in that division seeking the equivalent of Chapter 11 under Canadian law. The interest rate is also rumored to be a usurious 10 to 15 points above Libor.
If GM tries Chapter 11 without government backstop it will be the end of GM and its supply chain.
Every congressman who voted for Paulson's TARP should be impeached for stupidity!
I have a better idea - every American who voted for a second term or who voted for one of the Congressional incumbents who voted for TARP should have their citizenship revoked and be shipped straight to Havana.
mal writes:
It is not a recession, it is just a rest.
"Mummy's not dead. She's just sleeping."
. . . .
Look, boys and girls, can't we at least agree that this thing IS contained? Show me one piece of evidence that anything has been affected beyond the planet. Show me.
Okay. NASA. Space exploration. Puny little perambulations around the neighborhood. I'll granted you that.
So then, we are agreed that it is contained to the solar system?
The help file DOES NOT state this, but research has revealed that the Adobe website explains that "the viewing machine must be set to use the Acrobat plug-in and not the application to view the PDF".
Summary: Apparently the commands pass only to the plug-in; one cannot get a user to view a specific page if the client machine is set to view with the Acrobat reader application.
So the link must use a browser from what this says, and not Reader.
Bigotry is as American as apple-Pie among born-and-bred American dopes. No one is bred with greater disdain for the "other," any other, not just race or ethnicity. Bigotry towards "others" makes a born-and-bred American dope feel good about himself. What else he has going for himself?! You are a sad case, but you are entitled to display your bigotry at will and as often as you need to. Yes, you do have the need.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 8:38 pm
Substitute human for American and you're ststement will smack of something closer to the bone than the racism you project.
Cover? Who said anything about covering? World, GIVE US YOUR PRODUCTS. BTW, we have NO INTENTION of actually paying you back!
Tyrone | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 8:42 pm
I think Iceland has won that 'competition'.
Unit472
Yep. Ironically, they are culturally more prepared than 99.9% of Americans.
I wonder if the departing shot across Obama's bow will be for GM to go Chapter 11 with Government DIP?
Lots of new on how 'big cities' are cutting programs. Gee... isn't that usually when they declare we really are in a recession? I guess its best to be amused!
Good luck to all those effected by the LA fires. Even if its just dealing with the smoke.
In Jas' defense, I think the buying of US debt is a smart move. You may think it silly to buy the debt of dopes, but that is exactly the point- dopes pay and pay and never ask why.
--
"## Substitute human for American and you're ststement will smack of something closer to the bone than the racism you project."
Volker the Viking,
You have not considered the probability that Americans of today are uniquely doped with hubris, which is part and parcel of putting "others" down. Please do. Thanks.
You have not considered the probability that Americans of today are uniquely doped with hubris, which is part and parcel of putting "others" down. Please do. Thanks.
And you seem to have not considered the probability that indians of today are uniquely doped with hubris, which is part and parcel of putting "others" down. Please do. Thanks.
You have not considered the probability that Americans of today are uniquely doped with hubris, which is part and parcel of putting "others" down. Please do. Thanks.
Americans ARE unique!
Jas## Jas, please substitute whatever nationality you wish for Americans and your statement will ring true.
"You have not considered the probability that Americans of today are uniquely doped with hubris, which is part and parcel of putting "others" down. Please do. Thanks.
Americans ARE unique!
Jas"
Interesting, coming from someone from the country that gave the world (and STILL practices) the caste system.
Re GM - Would it not be cheaper for the govenrment to offer DIP financing then an outright bailout? It is important to reset the debt burden, so GM has to go into Ch11
Interesting, coming from someone from the country that gave the world (and STILL practices) the caste system.
My recommendation: Let's stick to Jas' personal hypocrisy, which is the defining characteristic of "dope" rather than commenting on the actual ethnic background.
I happen to love India. Jas is nothing more than attention seeking bigot that deals in ethnic hatred while pretending to be offended by it when directed at him.
I have never picked a fight with you, or disparaged you in any way. But I want to ask you a serious question.
Accounting for the deflationary model, in which i wholeheartedly agree, how do you reconcile that with the law of scarcity. Meaning, once deflation hits critical mass and capacity destruction and production overcapacity is revealed (something I believe we are witnessing now, see China manufacturing and the collapse of international shipping), how does monetary policy even adjust fast enough to avoid shortages and the resulting core commodity inflation?
Zimbabwe is one example, not perfect but a road map nonetheless.
Inability to borrow at competitive rates, and massive borrowing with no corresponding increase in production can only serve to weaken the value of the currency, coupled with less currency demand via decreased import/export activity.
While the US is a stable bet, deflation and its effects are obvious, but as you tip past that, wouldn't deflationary pressures take a back seat to the corresponding inability to produce our basic needs, thereby leading to increased costs??
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Dopes, especially "Printing Money" dopes, have been trying to educate "Jas" on inflation for more than ten years. Dopes never admit defeat no matter how long they are wrong or how much they are wrong.
$30Tr. of global wealth has been destroyed by asset deflation. Which is more powerful, asset deflation or monetary inflation?
You are only counting the major public events, millions owe their very existence to our military delivering aid during natural and not so natural disasters.
I don't put much stock in Iran and Saudi Arabia beefing up their gold reserves. But if it becomes a third world trend, it could be big.
For example, what if Venezuela and Russia started beefing up gold reserves and pegging their currencies to gold?
And then Argentina, Peru, Equador and Brazil?
These are among the world's dominant commodity-producing countries, outside Australia and Canada. Why should they take worthless crap dollars in exchange for their valuable commodities?
Capitalism is at a dead end. That's the elephant in the room. This crisis can be traced directly back to the early 70's economic crisis. US profit growth since 1980 or so consists of off-shoring manufacturing and more and more reckless financial speculation. World War 2 'saved' capitalism last time.
"You are only counting the major public events, millions owe their very existence to our military delivering aid during natural and not so natural disasters."
A very succinct answer is: I don't forecast deflation forever. Only for the next 3-5 years, my forecast time-horizon. There IS plenty of EXCESS CAPACITY, built during the bubbles-led boom, to last for at least 3 years and most likely 5 years.
Please let me know if I have answered the question. I do like to keep my answers short; hence, I cant go into various details.
"Dopes, especially "Printing Money" dopes, have been trying to educate "Jas" on inflation for more than ten years. Dopes never admit defeat no matter how long they are wrong or how much they are wrong."
BTW, Senorito On-Topico: The right answer to your question is that the shortages do not overcome the hording that is causing the deflation. Upon any price rise, demand drops or substitution occurs.
If the shortage does overcome the deflation and prices rise, well, then it's not a deflationary environment anymore: It indicates that there is a sufficient amount of money (and demand) to support the higher price.
mp - the concerted download of US tech, industry and IP to North Asia from the 50s until about 1971 must also count. This was the most spectacularly successful example of a corollary to the Marshall Plan ever witnessed.
"...the concerted download of US tech, industry and IP to North Asia from the 50s until about 1971 must also count. This was the most spectacularly successful example of a corollary to the Marshall Plan ever witnessed."
Why@ ZIRP writes:
"IF they can get a DIP (Debtor-in-possesion) loan big enough to allow them to continue operating and they don't trigger a massive CDS default event and nervous creditors that have been granted the ridiculous exemptions under the 2005 law do not tear them apart, then they might emerge whole from Chapter 11...
Since none of the banks have been making large DIP loans and show no inclination to do so, it is a moot point. If they try Chapter 11, it will fail due to lack of operating cash and they will be liquidated...
If GM tries Chapter 11 without government backstop it will be the end of GM and its supply chain."
My guess is that you have answered your own question. It seems that if anything happens with the Big 3, governments will also be entangled.
I'm not a credit person, but my guess is that whatever "restructuring" the Big 3 undertake will be a big deal, dwarfing anything else attempted. (It may be that the "restructuring" will occur without a bankruptcy; perhaps they can offload health care costs to Uncle Sam, or something like that.) They would probably be too big for standard DIP financing sources, even if it was available.
The CDS issue won't affect the Big 3; it'll be everyone else's problem. CDS protection holders have no bargaining power with respect to the underlying entity. Only the actual debt holders have any say, which is not a new development. As for the other exemptions granted in the 2005 law, I'm guessing these would only impact hedging operations, where their counterparties can seize collateral.
mp - with all due respect
WWII was not want by the US, at least if you count who destroyed the most German troops. The Red Army destroyed 2-3 times more Nazis than the Allies. WII was, alas, not an example of democracy triumphing over dictatorship. It was one dictatorship beating another.
As for USSR - I am curious to hear Pavel's view, but I would argue that it was Gorby's achievement the USSR went down peacefully, and not Reagan's. The US did corner the USSR, but it could have ended very badly for the world.
So I would count one world save by the US, not three
My point is that for most Americans, the stress will be more than they can bear. That coupled with an inability to ascertain our new place in the world, has ugly, ugly ramifications.
The history of caste in India is a fascinating subject with perhaps some broader relevance, indirectly, to some of the edgy exchanges of the last few days. At the risk of getting involved in things I don't want to be involved in, here goes:
What "we" (a squishy term) think of as caste is a product British colonial rule. Before the British, and after, there have been practices around what in Hindi is called jati, which can mean several different things and can be subject to changes and disjunctures with hierarchy.
The British froze this conjeries (nothing to do with Conjure, though he no doubt witnessed the Brits playing this game) of categories in an attempt to freeze the population into a rigid order, more easy to classify, categorize, surveil and control.
The word "caste," interestingly enough for Americans, is derived from the Portuguese casta (same in Spanish) that Vasco de Gama brought to India when he busted in upon Goa and decided to stay.
"Casta" in the same era came to be the baroque system of racial classification that the Spanish and Portuguese developed to chart intricate differentiations and hierarchies of color among the emerging multi-racial population of the Americas.
The British settlers of North America notably developed a much more simple Black vs White dichotomoy, with smaller spaces in the racial order set aside for American Indians and, occasionally, for people of mixed ancestry.
Since the nineteenth century there has been lots of intellectual or pseudo-intellectual traffic between the supposed practice of "caste" in India and the practice of racism in the U.S. Quite a few studies directly apply the term "caste" in discussions of the racial order of the US South from emancipation to the 1960s.
A compelling argument can be made that the word "Caste" finds its ideal typical case in the Americas, and that its application in India is a projection, a second order application of a term developed elsewhere. In fact, several of the formative "scholarly" studies of "caste" in India (19th and early 20th century studies) made precisely this move, grounding the meaning of caste in orimary assumptions about race that developed in the context of the Americas.
Are Americans unique? As compared to what? Like the economic implosion, I think this is a question that cannot be contained.
Speaking of mutts, there is really is not much doubt that all humans came out of Africa fairly recently. Less than a 300 thousand years ago. Just google Mitochondrial DNA to learn about the fascinating field of human migration and how it's been traced. For what it's worth I am Indian by national origin. And the Americans i meet daily are some of the most generous and straighforward people in the world IMHO. As for dopiness not any more or less dopey than the average human.
rich writes:
"For example, what if Venezuela and Russia started beefing up gold reserves and pegging their currencies to gold?"
Then their currencies would rise up and down without any linkage to anything happening in their economy or the global economy, and they would have random economic booms and crashes.
"These are among the world's dominant commodity-producing countries, outside Australia and Canada. Why should they take worthless crap dollars in exchange for their valuable commodities?"
Some of the countries you mention also produce gold (Russia for sure, Canada and Australia, I think). Why would they want payment in a commodity that they also export? What are their citizens going to do, fill up their tanks with gold? Use gold to build houses? Fill their teeth? (OK, they could do that.)
No faith? I reciprocate -- I am nice to the nice and nasty to nasties. Just to clarify. some nice people are simply wrong-headed, e.g., CR, when it comes to CRE, housing demand and severity of the current recession. In general, CR is a great reporter. I have specific criticisms of CR, but I praise him as often because he deserves it.
Volker the Viking writes:
"Exactly which contract was in default for that "default"?
Anonymous | 11.16.08 - 9:10 pm
The promise to redeem a dollar in gold for every dollar in debt based on a fixed rate of exchange."
That particular default occurred in the 1930s.
Post WWII, there was no convertibility of gold for citizens. Gold was only used for international settlement purposes. (Other countries used both gold and the U.S. for reserves.) But the Bretton Woods system had been breaking down for a decade, and they finally pulled the plug on outflows of gold. If they had not done so, the French would have ended up with almost all the U.S. government's gold (they were the ones demanding gold).
The problems of Ford, GM and Chrysler
seem to be that they cannot sell cars.
Their pension, financing and capital
issues could all disappear and they would still have that rather large issue confronting them.
If we are to save our domestic auto industry the better use of public funds would be, in my opinion, to stimulate demand.
The USG could offer to buy up older
gas guzzling autos and offer sellers a low cost loan for the purchase of a new domestically produced high mileage vehicle. By doing so we create
sales for GM etc and reduce our current account deficit, pollution and energy dependance. Seems a much more efficient solution than simply pouring money into the auto industry.
Exactly which contract was in default for that "default" ## The promise to redeem a dollar in gold for every dollar in debt based on a fixed rate of exchange.
From wiki on Breton Woods: "Meanwhile, in order to bolster faith in the dollar, the U.S. agreed separately to link the dollar to gold at the rate of $35 per ounce of gold. At this rate, foreign governments and central banks were able to exchange dollars for gold. Bretton Woods established a system of payments based on the dollar, in which all currencies were defined in relation to the dollar, itself convertible into gold, and above all, "as good as gold"."
We will see much consolidation within the recreation of all the empires:
Lion Nathan Ltd., Australia's second- largest brewer, offered to buy Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd. for A$7.6 billion ($4.9 billion) in cash and stock to create the nation's biggest beverages group.
The offer, worth A$10.35 a share based on the last closing prices, has a ``number of material deficiencies,'' Sydney-based Coca-Cola Amatil said in a statement today. The company is considering the bid which it said is incomplete and non-binding.
Post WWII, there was no convertibility of gold for citizens. Gold was only used for international settlement purposes. (Other countries used both gold and the U.S. for reserves.) But the Bretton Woods system had been breaking down for a decade, and they finally pulled the plug on outflows of gold. If they had not done so, the French would have ended up with almost all the U.S. government's gold (they were the ones demanding gold).
bond guy | 11.16.08 - 9:20 pm
Exactly. De Gaulle(sp?) had the good sense to send his navy to NYC to exchange the debt instruments for hard metal that he could take possession of. And you are correct, France would have ended up with all the gold.
Hmmm...... sounds like the hard metal bugs have it right.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Life and mortgage insurer Genworth Financial Inc said on Sunday it applied for capital under a U.S. government program, after reaching a deal to buy a bank, bringing it under federal regulation.
With the move, Genworth joins Hartford Financial Services Group Inc, a large property and life insurer, in seeking to change its regulatory status in order to participate in the Treasury Department's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
Genworth declined to say what amount of capital it was seeking.
Today bloomberg announces that goldman has decided not to pay bonuses for the 7 top officers.
However some phucking analyst or other is quoted as saying this move is prudent as it "frees up money to pay to the other staff" because (and this is where I spat coffee) "there is still a war for talent" (on wall street).
How can their be a war for talent on wall street when every company is shedding thousands upon thousands of employees? the finance world has changed now, company structures have changed. One in two hedge funds are going to shut and throw eggheads out on the street. what was "talent" in 2002 is not necessarily able to make a dime in 2009! anyone who thinks they know otherwise is either an idiot or misleading on purpose.
So the bailout money is going to pay huge BONUSES to the rank-and-file who survive the knife in 2007?
With Jas it is a personal thing. As he explained to me in a private email, he was traumatized in his early years in America. I told him I would not violate his trust so I can not tell you the anquish he suffered in the locker room.
Plantagenet : Suggest you look at the original agreement, not just wikipedia. There were rights of refusal for exigencies built into the agreement as well.
"Default" usually has a legal meaning. In that legal meaning, large defaults are deflationary, which was the point of this exercise.
"Bigotry is as American as apple-Pie among born-and-bred American dopes. No one is bred with greater disdain for the "other," any other"
your statement is so stunningly wrong it is ridiculous.
In India untouchables have acid thrown in their face for looking at a Brahman. In Iran homosexuals are hanged to death. Hutu slaughtered Tutsi just for being other. In Saudi Arabia you can be executed for proselytizing Christianity.
THAT, my foolish friend, is REAL disdain and hatred for "other"
many of the worlds persecuted peoples come to America BECAUSE of our ACCEPTANCE.
Your statements are beyond absurd, stick to economics and finance.
Money, it's a hit, don't gimmie that do goody-good...
The yen strengthened to 121.18 per euro as of 10:22 a.m. in Tokyo from 122.39 late in New York on Nov. 14. Japan's currency rose to 96.61 per dollar from 97.14 and Soma forecast it may reach 90.93 this week. Against the dollar, the euro fell to $1.2541 from $1.2605.
Japan's yen advanced against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies, rising the most versus the Australian dollar. It climbed 1.6 percent to 61.97 per Australian dollar and 0.9 percent to 53.22 per New Zealand dollar.
GM loses 90% of its value. Teetering on bankruptcy and going hat in hand looking for bailout money to keep the lights on. One thing remains constant. So goes GM, so goes the US
Sorry, I haven't mentioned here but America IS a caste society, much more so than India, presently.
The single defining characteristic of a caste society is high correlation between economic professions and ethnicity. Another is high concentration in certain neighborhoods and geographical areas. Rings a bell?
THERE IS GREATER SEGREGATION IN AMERICAN SCHOOLS THAT ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bunch of racist and classist bigots, a part and parcel of being morally bankrupt dopes considering the professed ideology preached to the world. There cannot be a worse messenger of democracy, equality, etc., than Americans.
Life is too short, said my dead pet mosquito. All good.
Now, as to my business and what I do, would you be shocked to learn that internal surety/insurance company numbers are calling for a 80% reduction in the amount of contracting companies, irregardless of market share and discipline in the next 6-8 months?? For the Western region (CA,AZ,NV,CO,UT). I think we havent seen peak deflation yet, but the capacity destruction is so freaking huge, that people I know, who know stuff, important stuff, are starting to Freak the F**K out. In AZ, construction dollars are 1 in 3, NV, 1 in 4, and down the line.
Entire metro areas are being wiped out, of working capital, margins, and ability to do future business. Developers are being wiped out. Our richest citizens are taking massive haircuts.
This is the example I know best but there are many more.
When the trucks stop delivering, there will be bigger problems than inflation. I think this is bigger than many realize.
Volker the Viking writes:
"Hmmm...... sounds like the hard metal bugs have it right.
So, we agree."
Sure, I'd agree that the U.S. had to back off the gold convertability pledge. However, that pledge was in the context of an international financial framework that no longer bore any resemblence to the facts on the ground. It's debateable who's fault that was; in any international agreement, it takes two to tango.
My take away from the whole episode is that it proved yet again that any attempt to base a monetary framework on gold is doomed. I guess we might not agree about that.
Trading in Lion Nathan shares - Australia's second-largest brewer, have been put on hold by the New Zealand Stock Exchange, after reports emerged this morning about a potential merger with soft drinks group Coca-Cola Amatil.
The Australian Financial Review reported the news today, saying a merger would create a A$11 billion ($13.02 billion) company.
Discussions have intensified in recent weeks with the involvement of both parent companies in the talks, the paper said without citing sources.
Lion Nathan is 46 per cent owned by Japan's Kirin Brewery Co and Coca-Cola Amatil is 30 per cent owned by US-based The Coca-Cola Company.
The trading halt will remain in place until the announcement is made to the stock exchange.
Bond Guy mentioned that GM going BK would not be as bad as AIG. He made valid points. I believe GM going under would be the event that tips this country into a depression. The effect on jobs, communities, and the world view, both by Americans, and the world, would be huge.
In India untouchables have acid thrown in their face for looking at a Brahman. In Iran homosexuals are hanged to death. Hutu slaughtered Tutsi just for being other. In Saudi Arabia you can be executed for proselytizing Christianity.
"I am curious to hear Pavel's view, but I would argue that it was Gorby's achievement the USSR went down peacefully, and not Reagan's."
Very complex question, but it was both of them, and also what secular people would call luck, and others the grace of God. But it's understood that there were many more people involved than 'leaders.'
What I know personally (as it was told to me) is that a message was conveyed from the American side at the beginning of the 80s that the US was not interested - to put it mildly - in engaging in nuclear war. It would proceed with economic competition in the arms race, aimed at defeating the SU without resorting to war.
Gorbachev was told by an adviser in about 1989 (as it was explained to me) that Germany was gone, eastern Europe was gone, but that he could strike a deal in which the SU proper would be preserved. That would have included the Baltic republics - but we know how that turned out.
The SU was entering a non-functional stage. You had to be there to see what sort of debacle it was.
As for a peaceful resolution: MAD was never a certain solution to the problem of preventing nuclear war. Furthermore, so far as I know (based on what I was told) in terms of strategic weapon systems the SU appeared to be, at least potentially, dangerously unstable during the collapse. At that point Gorbachev had very little if anything to do with command and control. For that the command authority would have been the Chief of the General Staff.
(I have been convinced for a long time now that as long as strategic weapons systems exist, nobody is safe. )
Sure, I'd agree that the U.S. had to back off the gold convertability pledge. However, that pledge was in the context of an international financial framework that no longer bore any resemblence to the facts on the ground. It's debateable who's fault that was; in any international agreement, it takes two to tango.
My take away from the whole episode is that it proved yet again that any attempt to base a monetary framework on gold is doomed. I guess we might not agree about that.
bond guy | 11.16.08 - 9:31 pm
My guess is that the framework will not be international.
Iowa Senator Charles Grassley said a tax ruling that helped Wells Fargo & Co. buy Wachovia Corp. raises concerns about ``preferential treatment'' for Wachovia, which is headed by former Treasury Department Undersecretary Robert Steel.
In a letter sent to Treasury Inspector General Eric Thorson, Grassley asked for an investigation into the Internal Revenue Service ruling because it would let Wells Fargo shelter about $74 billion from U.S. taxes and ensure top Wachovia executives collect golden-parachute severance payments.
``The facts and circumstances surrounding the issuance of the notice, particularly as it relates to Wells Fargo's purchase of Wachovia Corporation, raises concerns about the independence of the decision makers,'' Grassley, the ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, wrote. The lawmaker asked Thorson to review all documents and communication related to the notice, especially records of contacts between Treasury Department and bank officials.
Jas's Mommy writes:
Iowa Senator Charles Grassley said a tax ruling that helped Wells Fargo & Co. buy Wachovia Corp. raises concerns about ``preferential treatment''
As to why AIG should be saved, while GM should be allowed to fail, I think 'caste' might be the answer. Yes or No?
001 | 11.16.08 - 9:34 pm |
Interesting point. GM = grubby men doing "old economy" work. AIG = the bright shining future of America. Attired in good suits and knowing when to order Thai.
ova: Ponies Saving Souls writes:
"Bond Guy mentioned that GM going BK would not be as bad as AIG. He made valid points. I believe GM going under would be the event that tips this country into a depression. The effect on jobs, communities, and the world view, both by Americans, and the world, would be huge."
I'm not minimizing the impact of any hypothetical bankruptcy. However, my point was that the most likely outcome is restructuring, not liquidation. I.e., there will still be a GM making cars, and so not everyone loses their jobs or benefits. But even if the Big 3 avoid bankruptcy, that restructuring is likely to occur. There's no avoiding the fact that this will be a deep recession by post-WWII standards.
The fear for AIG, was that a disorderly liquidation may have been triggered (like Lehman), which could take down the banking system. That fear may have been baseless, but it's not completely implausible.
Some of the countries you mention also produce gold (Russia for sure, Canada and Australia, I think). Why would they want payment in a commodity that they also export?
To make sure they are getting constant value for their exports, not illusory value.
We are facing at period in which the value of currencies, manufactured products and ,many services will have flat or declining values, relative to hard assets and commodities.
So, you could achieve the same result by bypassing currencies and bartering commodities for goods and services in a free, unmanipulated market. But pegging currencies to gold (or silver, or oil) would serve the same purpose.
It's about getting rid of financial manipulation that works against emerging market commodity producers and having them get value for value.
Exit - nah, there's a vanilla wrapper version of subaltern, and a much richer postmodernist analysis version. It basically relates to a special thread of analysis common on the subcontinent about collusion, collaboration, and cultural inferiority dealing with the occupying power. I used to go to conferences and wished I'd had a gong when I got to 10 stylized references to subaltern theory, writing, praxis and so on, at which whack the gong...
All a bunch of what comes out of the back end of a horse, and I don't mean tails, fat or otherwise.
Of course the engagement with Jas on this board has nothing to do with this.
In theory that makes a lot of sense. My view is that a GM BK will equal the death of GM. I say this based on the current economic climate. What sales they have, what dealers who still can finance, will disapear.
Pavel - I think it is highly likely that if Andropov had not passed away, the confrontation of the weakening USSR with the more powerful USA would have ended very differently. For old KGB/Party types defeat was not an option, regardless of how many lives would cost.
GM will sell world wide divisions first, the Aussie Government will have to come to the rescue of holden, EU to rescue opal etc. There are options, looks like GM are beholden to glacial management decision making! And an avalanche of bad paper if the sucker goes down. Hell I have a $20 bet with my dad that its over for GM by mid 2009!
If AIG would have failed we'd be in the last 4 weeks in a deep depression. With GM, it ain't gonna be like that, just more job losses and further cut in production capability in the US
Canterbury of New Zealand Rugby Shirt costs $231.85 NZD/$128.00 USD. They need to reduce the price to $85.00 NZD before they get this individual to buy one...
Uh-oh, it looks like the townspeople are getting a bit annoyed with Jas.
That indian-born dope lives for conflict, right jas? And have you figured out how to "paraphrase" yet? How about "castigate"? Is your vocabulary growing today? Or is that too much to ask from a dope?
Bigotry is as American as apple-Pie among born-and-bred American dopes. No one is bred with greater disdain for the "other," any other, not just race or ethnicity.
Point 1: Jas's 2nd sentence reeks of the bigotry and stereotyping he decries in his 1st sentence.
Point 2: Seen a picture of our president-elect yet? The guy has a helluva "tan".
Volker the Viking writes:
"## My guess is that the framework will not be international."
Yes, but, but you have to deal with the international dimension. North Korea is about the only closed economy out there, and as far as I know, they are still dependent upon food imports.
A gold-based economy would have to barter with non-gold based economies if it is to avoid the evils of fiat currencies. The most likely means of barter would be gold.
And so the economy would be an uncontrollable boom if it has an export bubble, with gold inflows inflating the local economy. And once the gold starts flowing out, the economy will go into a deflationary death spiral. And if it is a strict gold-based currency, there is nothing the policymakers can do, other than break the link to gold.
Which is exactly what happened to everybody in the Gold Standard days, which is why every policymaker dropped gold targetting like a live hand grenade.
GM not recieving gov aid while AIG, and others of its kind, will in time become the example that will be used as a political rally point for the working class.
Does the Iraq war stimulate economic activity in the US? If yes, would a much larger war with Iran save us from a recession? Will there ever be a more useful time to take down the regimes in Sudan, Burma, North Korea, Venezuela, and Syria?
Theories of ethnic or national superiority have been proven wrong dozens of times over the last few centuries. For posterity, it's best not to go there in ones writings.
--
"Uh-oh, it looks like the townspeople are getting a bit annoyed with Jas."
El Cliffö,
Jas must be telling truths that are undeniable and are upsetting to the townspeople. Nothing gets the goat of a born-and-bred American dope than criticism that is true and he can't do anything about it (can't change dopes and Crooks).
Athenians, real townspeople, weren't too happy with poor Socrates. Dopes are invariably intolerant and want blood of the critics rather than that of the real evildoers.
A fact to keep in mind regarding The Great Depression- the forty hour workweek was informally in use by a few companies in 1929 and was legally defined about 1935
Does the Iraq war stimulate economic activity in the US?
The wars are not comparable on any scale. 50 + million people died in WW2. Then, countries had to rebuild. Germany and Japan were essentially gone in 1946.
ova: Small Indian Ponys writes:
Interesting point. GM = grubby men doing "old economy" work. AIG = the bright shining future of America. Attired in good suits and knowing when to order Thai.
nova: Small Indian Ponys | 11.16.08 - 9:37 pm
How about this one? AIG going into bankruptcy triggers a massive CDS default tanking the entire financial system? People can live without GM, Ford, or Chrysler cars. The government ponying up FDIC insurance for the entire banking industry = FAIL!
Isn't the deflation, then inflation scenario one where we will experience economic crack-the-whip?
Shouldn't the proper investment response be to invest in (i.e., buy and hold) both "deflation proof" investments AND "inflation proof", unless you are confident that you can time a future switch from 100% "deflation proof" to 100% "inflation proof"?
one does wonder if Treasury or Fed have modeled the systemic effect of a Big3 BK. Before Lehman went orbs up, they had people in all the banks monitoring, and believed Lehman could go down safely.
I cannot see why Canada, Mexico, Korea, Australia, German govts. are willing to stand on the sidelines as our pols decide their fates.
Which is exactly what happened to everybody in the Gold Standard days, which is why every policymaker dropped gold targetting like a live hand grenade.
bond guy | 11.16.08 - 9:44 pm
The only one to drop gold was Nixon. Everyone followed suit since the dollar was the reserve currency.
A true price discovery of gold would be sufficient to fund any currency. Of course, it would put all the snot noses (in YC and the financial community in a rweal hurt locker. Not that that would be a bad ting.
All I suggest is that hard money, the abolition of fractional reserve banking and abolition of CB's could lead to a real era of prosperity.
Of course, greed trumps reason absent a limiting authority, so we'd need sometjing to tamper all the ambition. Unless, this new way of thinking about money becomes (transmogrifies) into a suddenly peaceful way of life.
"Theories of racial or national supremacy have been proven wrong dozens of times over the past few centuries"
I'm not aware of that being the case at least over the past few centuries.
I might agree with you that it is probably a stupid theory but, empirically, the racists have the upper hand.
Anglo Saxons, Jews, Germans, Japanese
all conform to the 'theory'. Blacks and Latinos too. It maybe wrong but the evidence to disprove it is not yet been presented.
Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I can see scenarios with the Big 3 surviving, albeit in a smaller form. They almost certainly will have to cut capacity; without the very lax lending standards of the past decade, they will not be able to sell as many cars.
And the wisdom of betting the farm on SUV's and light trucks is mind-boggling. This seems to be the biggest problem they face, which I do not know whether they can overcome.
But there does appear to be room for them to get their fixed costs down, especially if the government takes some of those costs over.
Replace Jas with Ira, Jain with Epstein and Indian with Jew (I hope that Jew is not a dirty word here, it is not to me; it is same as Hindu, or Jain or Muslim) and read all the comments. Bigotry might get real explicit than "subtle." Dopes are intolerant but are also afraid. American bigotry is beyond the ability of a born-and-bred American dope to comprehend.
Jas Jain(Irritating) writes:
Jas must be telling truths that are undeniable and are upsetting to the townspeople.
That's one possibility, there is another.
Oh, and mr refer-to-yourself-in-the-third-person? The word you were looking for is "I". It conjugates to "I am telling truths". It's tough conjugating "to be", but even a dope like you will get the hang of it after a while.
"Subcontinent" - so, India / Pakistan / Bangladesh specifically, given the colonization of SE Asia had other Euro flavors aside from British?
I'd favor some reading tips, if you would.
BTW, I found somewhat more value in Foucault than you evidently do, but am open to learn more.
In re: the other name brought up, I find it mostly amusing, but also distracting. The "discussion" diverts attention away from the message.
And not the message that we're all dopes, but rather, how do we use that information to our advantage? While, hopefully, not leaving the rest of the American Idiot's as, in fact, dopes.
When the trucks stop delivering, there will be bigger problems than inflation. I think this is bigger than many realize.
Senorito On-Topico | 11.16.08 - 9:29 pm | #
I think you are right On-Topico. once the local grocery is empty, it wont matter how much bread cost. inflation/deflation argument becomes meaningless as staples wont be had at any price. There isnt a real farm within 150 miles of me. that is scary.
(I have been convinced for a long time now that as long as strategic weapons systems exist, nobody is safe. )
Pavel Chichikov | 11.16.08 - 9:33 pm | #
From purely technical perspective, knowing how "fail safe" systems can fail, I agree.
The clear and present danger is more individual, in my view. I call it the "perception of scarcity". As we slip into the best publicized worldwide recession of all time, the individuals who know that it is coming perceive the diminution of their lifestyles and develop a siege mentality of self preservation that may or may not include the preservation of close relatives and acquaintances. Hoarding behaviors abound and selfishness increases.
Many are now without either the often laudable conscience of the pagan (some are a law unto themselves) or the spirit breathed conscience of the Christian. This is as grave a danger to the people as the strategic weapons, in my view.
gerald writes:
I cannot see why Canada, Mexico, Korea, Australia, German govts. are willing to stand on the sidelines as our pols decide their fates.
ACT LIKE A MAN!
gerald, nobody can help the big3 anymore, they are beyond help.
how many of the owners of GM's bonds have recognized on their books that they trade at 22cents.
FWIW in the mid-eighties my brother in law was working for a Michigan senator when the law was changed to allow SUVs to be mass produced. Before that farmers had some special treatment as owners, but the Big3 had foreseen a huge opportunity. After witnessing the dealings the guy had to quit. He was sitting on the capital's steps talking to a friend and said he thought he had just quit.
The USA...us. How we have fallen. I have concluded anyone born before 1930 would look with shame upon what we became. I am proud of my country's history and ashamed of my own.
Something went wrong, very wrong.
38 years of delusions have created a reality of failure. On all levels.
I offer my heartfelt apologies to my children, I am sorry I failed to take a stand when it could have changed the course. I'm sorry for only thinking of my needs and not yours. I'm sorry I used money not mine to provide a life you didn't need or want. I'm sorry I ignored the suffering necessary so I could live in a big house with 2 cars, a boat, a quad runner, a jetski, a big tv, a laptop, a pc, a MAC. I'm sorry I didn't take part in guiding the republic. I'm sorry the air and water are poisoned. I'm sorry, so very sorry.
NZD, come here, yes, well it's fine at the top of the tower, yes I get dizzy too, no, we can't go back down the steps, try over here, just fine, hold my hand, no, it's good, it's a waterslide, lots of fun, it'll be a bit dark for a while, but it'll be great and you'll love the splash, yes, fast, but you've digested your breakfast, it'll be fine, ready, ok, sit there, all set, ok fantastic, see you at the bottom...
Broward Horne writes:
""any attempt to base a monetary framework on gold is doomed"
Wow. Leave the kids with the babysitter for 37 years and all hell breaks out. I would humbly suggest almost any non-Keynesian history book."
It was fairly typical for economies to contract by 20% in the 19th century. This was the "glory years" of the gold standard.
The Great Depression occurred during the Gold Exchange Standard system, which was a modified Gold Standard. It was rather deep.
Post WWII, gold is irrelevent, and the major economies now decline by a few percent in a recession. Only Iceland looks like it will be crashing on a magnitude comparable to what was seen pre-WWII. And maybe that just shows that you shouldn't let your entire banking system turn into hedge funds.
no we get obama hailing fdr for being willing to experiment. Just what we need a half wit academic debater type experimenting with a system so fragile and so broken as to be officially declared. Better yet we get the same crack crew who helped steer us into the cul de sac with the solution. When the US decides that the cause is hopeless, they will devalue in a preemtive and massive way. This will force a massive change but the US will at least have eradicated its foreign debt problme. The American people will be told it is in thier interest and there was no other option.
--
"The USA...us. How we have fallen. I have concluded anyone born before 1930 would look with shame upon what we became. I am proud of my country's history and ashamed of my own."
shame,
Thank you, thank you, and thank you! At least, someone gets it. My criticism of America is in comparison with the American past. Only morons and bigots insist on comparisons with India.
Socrates (the Greek) poisoned himself rather than be ostricized. He could not stand life without being able to tell the plebs they were born and bred dopes.
So it must be with interlopers of great civilizations...
Bond Guy, the American public wanted big SUV's and Trucks. I am the proud owner of the biggest of them all in a 2008 Nissan Titan pickup with even more horsepower than a Chevy or Ford.
The most profitable car company in the world is Porsche and what do they produce but overpowered two seat sports cars and a $75,000 140mph SUV.
I might agree that the US industry has been plagued by poor design and quality issues but the 500 horsepower
Mustang is not one of them.
In 1957 the most expensive production car in the world was a Cadillac Eldorado. Those big fins and bodies dripping with chrome made Cadillac distinctive and worth the noney. Try and buy a 1957 thru 1961 El Dorado today and you'll see that excess has its place in automotive manufacturing.
Who was that GM designer of the 1950's. Harley something or other. That is what American car makers need.
Not some Congressman insisting Ford revist the Pinto or Chevy the Cavalier. You have to build cars people want and not government mandated econoboxes.
"any attempt to base a monetary framework on gold is doomed."
Given that when a fiat currency collapses, all you have left is the gold, I think your grandstanding a little bit.
Gold backed currency may not be the best idea but it is hardly "doom." Though, using a single metal as the support seems foolish. A mix of gold, silver, copper, nickel, steel and aluminum seems better to me.
In fact weren't pennys, dimes, nickels and Dollars organized just that way for a time.
My criticism of America is in comparison with the American past. Only morons and bigots insist on comparisons with India.
And my criticism of Jas is in comparison with the Jas past. Gone are the days where he could string together coherent thoughts and post at FSU. Now, he's a blubbering idiot who doesn't have the discipline to write more than few lines in CR comments.
Jas is a has-been. Washed up. Past prime. An old, useless, inchoate chattering dope.
"Thank you, thank you, and thank you! At least, someone gets it. My criticism of America is in comparison with the American past. Only morons and bigots insist on comparisons with India."
Sorry Jaas, but the born and bred dope attitude is starting to permeate throughout India and Asia. To deny otherwise is to deny the reality on the ground.
Just because politicians do not act in their constituents' best interest doesn't mean they're incompetent. Perceived incompetence can camouflage psychopathic intentions very effectively.
Unit472 writes:
"Theories of racial or national supremacy have been proven wrong dozens of times over the past few centuries"
I'm not aware of that being the case at least over the past few centuries.
Unit472, the theory of the "arischer Herrenmensch" did not so well pan out for the Nazies. Believe me.
mp, if you're lurking, I left you a comment at the end of the previous thread about the excel/pdf question. It doesn't look like you can do it with a hyperlink anymore, but I saw examples of macros people wrote to accomplish the same thing, and left you one in the comment.
The CAFE standards forced all makers to produce small cars even when there was little demand. If not for it, Big3 would not even them I think. Our gas has just been too cheap for so many reasons.
--
I feel that it is necessary to respond to bigots. Ask the Jews for the need to do so. Presently, no country is as bigoted as America. It only shows openly when the occasion arises; otherwise, it is "subtle." A bigot who hides his bigotry is worse than and open bigot. Todays Americans are mostly in the former category. 50 years ago they were open and honest bigots. Those were the good old days!
America has changed for the worse, much worse. If you dont believe me, just wait for 2-3 years.
In Reno, Nevada, the homeless have pitched tents downtown next to fancy hotels, casinos and restaurants. Some members of the tent city say they came to Reno looking for work in the casinos, but even the gaming industry is cutting back.
Reno has a limited number of beds in its homeless shelters, and people can stay only 2 weeks. Even fleabag motels cost about $200 a week, a cost far beyond the reach of many of the newly homeless.
Reno is built on the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada, at about 4,500 feet. It starts to get cold this time of year, and the city can receive significant snowfall. City and local charities need to work fast to get residents of the new tent city out of the cold.
Nevada has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation. But that downbeat economic indicator hasnt stopped job seekers. Earlier this week, a casino in Las Vegas received about 25,000 applications for 1,000 jobs. Shantytowns Spring Up in Major US Cities-Minyanville
You have to build cars people want and not government mandated econoboxes.
Unit472 | 11.16.08 - 10:12 pm | #
That is so marvelously short-sighted as to defy description.
You are of course aware that "want" can be manufactured, and frequently gets morphed into "need".
My children "want" stuff (x-box, Wii, etc.) but we've determined that it's more prudent to take them to the library.
Large, inefficient vehicles are emblematic of the financial maelstrom we inhabit, and why the Big 3 are whispers away from collapse - and you somehow still believe that it's the manufacturer's god-given right to build them?
That's so .... I'd say it, I want to say it.... nope, refrained. One- of- the 7 dwarves.
For those of us who love the comment section, please do not respond to Jas when he's trolling.
CR has already indicated that he might shut down the comments section if trolling contnues...please just ignore Jas.
Post WWII, gold is irrelevent, and the major economies now decline by a few percent in a recession. Only Iceland looks like it will be crashing on a magnitude comparable to what was seen pre-WWII. And maybe that just shows that you shouldn't let your entire banking system turn into hedge funds.
bond guy | 11.16.08 - 10:06 pm
Gold is irrelevent? Really? Then why didn't Nixon just let it is all go to France in 1971? Why do all major central banks and the IMF today still hold huge reserves in gold?
For those who have opinions on gold but haven't actually studied it, the United States has a history of adopting the gold standard, abandoning in and then re-adopting it.
We know why the gold standard is abandoned - to maintain gov't stpending during wartime.
Bu when you ask Keynesians why the gold standard was re-adopted, the usual answer is
"Because the policy makers of old were dumber than us modern guys"
I submit to you that there is an alternate answer....
Try spending a casino chip anywhere 200 miles outside the city of LV. Can you get a cargo container freight forwarded with it? Which cashiers cage are you headed for? And what do you want your final sum in, IOU's or gold?
Dudes, the other guys here can argue but the fact is... you don't know any history and you believe that 37 years of non-gold standard is both unusual and permanent.
it is neither.
The rest of the world has been working to re-introduce gold-backed currencies in EXPECTATION of a failed dollar for several years now.
Gold is a random and not very stable standard, so one can hardly imagine modern world economy based on gold.
One reserve currency creates a "too big to fail" problem we are observing.
Why can't there be many universal currencies to countries to trade? If the world system is set to deal with trade in USD, EUR, Yen, RMB (unpegged), Rupee - would it not be much more stable?
OK, so I just finished reading (on paper) the California section of the LA Times. Everyone is lining up for a handout from Uncle Obama. And I heard Obama quoted on NPR today saying (paraphrasing) "we will not be worried about deficits for several years. We will spend whatever we need to."
So can anyone make a reasonable case that we can avoid inflation of at least 10% for the next several years? I don't mean Jas-style unfounded insistence that inflation is impossible, I mean an actual economic case for little or no inflation. It won't do to make the usual case that inflation is impossible because wages have not been rising. I mean a real, forward-looking case for why we will not see inflation of at least 10% p/a.
I hear the Sands casino is in real trouble. When the casino collapses, or has its creditworthiness revokes and shutters, will my pretty chip buy me muh chitlins n grits?
You know whose dope and whose peddlin' dope. Get some.
First?
How frequently does NBER meet? When is the soonest they can call the US version?
The pig squealed!!! Excellent add on once I worked through the Firefox 2 to 3 transition.
Not Nov 2007?
It's two quarters of negative economic growth to get a recession. I'm rusty on my technical milestones here... How many quarters of recession until a revolution?
I'm still laughing at the pig. I don't want to filter anyone, but I still appreciate the extra work that Ken must of put into the companion.
The pig is the coup de grace! Very clever.
C&C,
I should be more precise in my wording. When is the soonest future date that (er, "might") NBER can call the commencement date of the present downturn?
John Mauldin had mentioned this before. The eventual structural weakening of the Euro. Basically one or two... or maybe 5 countries go down and the healthy ones have to rescue them.
Now if all of Europe catches a cold... Who will rescue them? China?
I think more and more there will be a major shift value of fiat currencies. If everyones currency is weakening then its going to be wierd....
"It's two quarters of negative economic growth to get a recession"
BZZZZZZ
Wrong!
It is not a recession, it is just a rest.
Has there ever been a time when the world's three largest economies all had negative growth simulatenously other than the GD?
It is not a recession, it is just a rest.
"Mummy's not dead. She's just sleeping."
I think that should be simultaneously
Strangely, I have to confess that I enjoy it more the longer it takes for the dating committee to "call" a recession. I don't know why?
Also, I always assumed Bond Girl just worked in the fixed income markets (I never made the connection to James Bond), so, I've got some rewiring to do, I guess.
energyecon:
How could we apply Hubbert's curve to the short maturity rollover coming up (per your analysis-nice work BTW)?
It is not a recession, it is just a rest.
Elvis
I think December '07 through August '08 was a GHOST recession-kind of like a ghost signal you can get with analog broadcast TV. We are in the real one now-the real signal.
Recession here? No way my realtor always says: Markets and housing can only go up...never down.
When NBER calls the official recession expect a bear-market rally and CNBS calling for a bottom in the market. All the pundits know that recessions never last more than 12 months and the market bottoms 6 months before the recession ends.
energyecon:
How could we apply Hubbert's curve to the short maturity rollover coming up (per your analysis-nice work BTW)?
hong konger
was it a public post?
TIA
....
Nades - by this reasoning maybe we'll see the same eventual structural weakening of the USD? With the other states rescuing NY and California?
WHich country will be the first to call a Depression?
Nades,
Checkout energyecon: The World's Biggest ARM - Marketable US Treasury Debt
feldstein said recently that calling the date for the onset of recession was NBER's goal, without any further revisions required. Remember that econ figures are often revised.
Currently watching The One.
Which country will be first to call a
depression?
I think Iceland has won that 'competition'.
Tell me something I haven't known for the last year plus.
They are still driving looking through the rear view mirror.
ades-
yeah, the graphs he produced are on his site for the Treasury maturity distributions.
I was just wondering if we could synthesize Hubbert into that since I know he's a fan (as am I).
I think Cali itself could weaken the dollar.
Its kinda like the comment above:
"Has there ever been a time when the world's three largest economies all had negative growth simulatenously
other than the GD? @Unit472"
What if we all are shrinking...
Manic Depression
Jimi
Was it CC who named this?
Recall a year ago and almost every day since that the Wright B model said there was no way in hell there would be a recession...Sebastian you were so wrong!
yeah, the graphs he produced are on his site for the Treasury maturity distributions.HK
Did he really? I missed it. Someone had been asking for it a while back. I thought it was a great idea.... Do you remember when?
Thanks!
Asian markets agree - Japan, Korea, Australia down 3%
ades-
I think he just completed them today.?
they're right up front.
I'm more worried about it turning into a depression than when it started, and why can't AIG fail and the automakers can? What a joke.
Do your own realtime tracking of the economy.
bestbuy.com - Site Info from Alexa
See the big Thanksgiving spike?
And the continuous rise up until Dec 25th?
You should be able to make a good comparison in two more weeks.
........Chinese regionall gov. stimulus program is double of the central gov. program.....today Shanghai will end up with red index .....
I miss Sebastian. He made salient points (infrequently, but nonetheless) which made me reassess my logic.
Anyway, just because people make faulty predictions, they shouldn't scatter to the wind.
Debate is good.
why can't AIG fail and the automakers can?
The answer is simple. We are engaged in the illusion of an ecomony, not an economy. Ergo, it is far more important to maintain the illusion of money and stock price and pension funds than to create real products which that paper ultimately represents.
why can't AIG fail and the automakers can
How DARE you talk about rich people that way. You realize those are our campaign contributors you're talking about, right? Apologize, NOW!
hong konger please forgive my ineptness but can you give me a link. I'm sure its right in front of my eyes but I cant find it...
...........If GM fails , world wide impact would be much more than Lehman ..............
Exit writes:
"I should be more precise in my wording. When is the soonest future date that (er, "might") NBER can call the commencement date of the present downturn?"
The NBER can pronounce the recession whenever it wants. It waits for all the data to be out, and revised, then announces the start date. The announcement typically coincides with the end of the recession.
Recession dating is very convenient for economists when they want to explain past history. But it's useless for market analysis, since you can't ensure you are in a recession until it's already bloody obvious. All you needed to do to know that the U.S. was in recession in early 2008 was to look at the level of bond yields.
The reason why this recession was not obvious to the economists is the fact that economists focus a lot on real GDP. (Although the 2 negative GDP quarters is not the NBER definition.) In the curent recession, falling demand hit "real" imports, and so the damage to real GDP was cushioned. (Imports subtract from GDP, so falling demand and falling imports cancel.) The moonshot in oil prices makes the focus on "real" GDP somewhat dubious, but economists have habits that they cannot shake.
After the failure to produce any ponies on a spit during the G20, 7 print on the Nikkei seems like a sure thing here.
Global Grande Depression.
ades-
I think his site is energyecon.blogspot.com. But I don't know how to hyperlink in html.
Sorry bout that. Someone upthread provided a link that's clickable.
HK Perfect! Thanks!
--
China and India will join soon. My best estimate is before 2009Q2 is out.
Global recession in 2009, global depression in 2010, and Greater Depression thereafter. 10-year yield will go below 2% some time in 2009. Inflationists are a bunch of dopes (thoroughly brainwashed by propaganda).
Jas
[I miss Sebastian. He made salient points ]
None that I can recall. He was like a retard ignoring OVERWHELMING evidence and still using his silly irrelevent Wright Model B. It was truly remarkable, the level of intransigence. And he would never accept a wager, which made him nothing but a troll...
HKer
energyecon
My apologies if you already knew this.
Iran switches reserves to gold: report
An Error has occured | Reuters.com.
Inflationists are a bunch of dopes (thoroughly brainwashed by propaganda).
You oughta know, ya indian-born dope.
Duarte writes:
"why can't AIG fail and the automakers can? What a joke."
The assumption appears to be that an AIG failure would probably take out a good portion of the banking system. If the banking system ceases to function, so goes other securities markets, and the whole thing unravels. That is what happened in the 1930s.
I can't tell you for sure that such an outcome would be guaranteed, but policymakers would not want to risk even a slight probability of a repeat.
As for GM, the general feeling is that they need to restructure. If they go into Chapter 11, they won't be liquidated, they will just attempt to put themselves on a sustainable footing. There will be damage to the parties they have bleeding cash to, but it's hard to pretend that they can follow their current course much longer.
Well, Bearly, I did say "infrequently".
I often find when people are intransigent, it makes me tighten up the logic of my assertions. Whether they are convinced is not the point. Just that I'm satisfied I've come to a rational conclusion.
From earlier today:
Just challenge my conclusions and leave my ethnicity out of it, please.
Sad the man who shouts "american born dopes."
Credit enima is coming..... writes:
Iran switches reserves to gold: report
CE your link didnt work.... can you repost... This is scary!
haha
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has converted financial reserves into gold to avoid future problems, an adviser to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in comments published on Saturday, after the price of oil fell more than 60 percent from a peak in July.
"With the plans of the presidency...the country's money reserves were changed into gold so that we wouldn't be faced with many problems in the future," presidential adviser Mojtaba Samareh-Hashemi was quoted as saying by business daily Poul.
Well guys, that settles it. We're 100% in gold now, nothing can possibly harm us. Gold is safe, you see...
Is this the week when the insurance companies finally come out of the closet?
Link on the Iran Gold thing
Iran switches reserves to gold: report
| Reuters
Doesn't say how much of its reserves are switched to gold, but the report discusses 75 billion.
Thanks Norka! I'm embarrassingly deficient in the computer sciences.
If I were to have a blog, it would be a cut and paste of a bunch Word docs!
--
"None that I can recall. He [Sebastian] was like a retard ignoring OVERWHELMING evidence and still using his silly irrelevent Wright Model B. It was truly remarkable, the level of intransigence. And he would never accept a wager, which made him nothing but a troll..."
bearly,
A perfect example of a born-and-bred American dope. I had to suffer his idiocy during 2006-07 in another forum.
Based on his comments in the forum (not here) he is a born loser. Many dopes end up as losers. Most Crooks end up as winners in America, more so then anywhere and ever before in America itself.
Jas
Hoopajoops LTD Mahmaoud is a comedian...
Granted a sick one.....
ohhh I read China in your first post. not Iran. Dont know why... /tail between legs....
We're 100% in gold now, nothing can possibly harm us. Gold is safe, you see...
I suspect that by 2015, we'll see that gold was safer than electronic digits in the U.S. treasury, like Jas is holding.
I've converted all of my holdings into hoopajoops to "avoid further problems." See, I'm keeping the things I am hedging against vague so all my bases are covered.
What were Iranian reserves in before they switched to gold? I thought they made a big deal to switching over to pricing oil in euros and that they moved their reserves into euros already.
Many dopes end up as losers. Most Crooks end up as winners in America, more so then anywhere and ever before in America itself
I have to admit, this is largely what I've seen myself over the past few years but I'm curious, Jas.
Are you a dope or a crook?
And I don't think anybody here is willing to accept "an alternative answer".
Personally, I think you're nuts for holding any US paper.
If oil goes back to $30, I could see gold going back to $300. Temporary, but painful.
Bond guy-
They switched to payment in yen last year. That's worked out pretty well.
It's good to see that the rascists and nationalists are back. I thought were getting off track here.
Now, those Hobos......
Personally, I think you're nuts for holding any US paper.
An indian-born dope holding paper backed by the full faith and credit of american-born dopes. What could be neater.
As things continue to deteriorate, I hope that those of us who are OK will try to be especially polite and cordial. Of course, I hope that those who are suffering will be cordial as well.
Best,
Jeff
Yachts for sale cheap!!!
Luxury yacht Alibella may prove the ultimate credit crisis bargain - Telegraph
wonder what the severity is. x points up to x points down in x timeframe.
After the weekend i have had, I am beginning to think we are in for a real fast crash, kind of like turning off the hose.
Looking at rentals w/ the misses. Rents on 2k SF in the East Valley advertised for 1400/MO two weeks ago, advertising for 800/MO today. One lady started CRYING, begging us to rent. She was the friggin REALTOR!?!?!?
BG-
Sorry, your question was about reserves, not, oil payments.
I wonder what currency they priced their gold in and where it's being held?
Iran has oil which is probably the best store of value in the world today.
"why can't AIG fail and the automakers can?" AIG is at the core of the CDS mess. If they go down, it all blows up at once. Based on Paulson's public statements, they were unaware of how bad the market/economy was.
--
Bob Parker: For the Past Hundred Years Commodities Has Been the Worst Investment of Any Asset Class
He is with Credit Suisse and he was on CNBC-World minutes ago.
Inflationists are a bunch of history ignoramuses. Confirmation will come soon.
Jas
jas
what is the purpose of a central bank? hint: inflation
And obama is committed to doing anything he has to to get the economy moving.
Jas Jain(Irritating) writes: Inflationists are a bunch of history ignoramuses.
What?! Not dopes? You might be expanding your vocabulary?
BTW, did you ever figure out the meaning of the word "paraphrase"? Or are you too much of a dope to handle that?
Every congressman who voted for Paulson's TARP should be impeached for stupidity! Paulson is the Smoot-Hawley of this depression. The wrong solution at the wrong time by the wrong Treasury Secretary.
Blackhalo writes:
"why can't AIG fail and the automakers can?" AIG is at the core of the CDS mess. If they go down, it all blows up at once. Based on Paulson's public statements, they were unaware of how bad the market/economy was.
Blackhalo | 11.16.08 - 8:27 pm
The grind goes on. BTW: silver will do better than gold.
Manic Depression.
Exit, 'twas I.
Thread muzak:
Gimme danger, little stranger
And I'll feed your disease
Gimme danger, little stranger
And I'll skroo your currencies
There's nothing in my life, but trading on maladies...
YouTube
- stooges gimme danger
CC
TOTALLY OFF-TOPIC QUESTION
I have a nagging question that may interest the computer types out there and my computer guy isn't available.
Conjure and I are using a spreadsheet (Excel 2007) running on an XP Pro box with hyperlinks to PDF files (Acrobat Reader 9).
I can open the PDF by clicking on the hyperlink, but cannot go to the page number using Adobe command format filename.pdf#page=xx.
Interestingly, when I use Internet Exploder or Firefox to open the PDF, it goes straight to the page.
Any knowledge out there to help a computer illiterate--and increasingly frustrated--old man?
"One lady started CRYING, begging us to rent. She was the friggin REALTOR!?!?!?"
They ALL do that now. Right after you say, "prices are falling so fast, I think I'll wait a week or two..."
Their previous selling tactic of buy/rent now, before prices go up has been replaced by pity parties and begging.
Link on the Iran Gold thing
...
Doesn't say how much of its reserves are switched to gold, but the report discusses 75 billion.
75 Billion! They're pikers; we can print 10 times that in seconds! BWAHAHAHA
.
"Sad the man who shouts "american born dopes."
cultural, not racial, IMHO.
mp, when you just click the link what program opens the pdf? Adobe Reader? If another app opens it that app may not understand the command.
Just a thought
--
Anon,
Bigotry is as American as apple-Pie among born-and-bred American dopes. No one is bred with greater disdain for the "other," any other, not just race or ethnicity. Bigotry towards "others" makes a born-and-bred American dope feel good about himself. What else he has going for himself?! You are a sad case, but you are entitled to display your bigotry at will and as often as you need to. Yes, you do have the need.
Jas
As for GM, the general feeling is that they need to restructure. If they go into Chapter 11, they won't be liquidated, they will just attempt to put themselves on a sustainable footing. There will be damage to the parties they have bleeding cash to, but it's hard to pretend that they can follow their current course much longer.
bond guy | 11.16.08 - 8:14 pm | #
IF they can get a DIP (Debtor-in-possesion) loan big enough to allow them to continue operating and they don't trigger a massive CDS default event and nervous creditors that have been granted the ridiculous exemptions under the 2005 law do not tear them apart, then they might emerge whole from Chapter 11.
Since none of the banks have been making large DIP loans and show no inclination to do so, it is a moot point. If they try Chapter 11, it will fail due to lack of operating cash and they will be liquidated.
The DIP loan that Circuit City obtained had onerous terms that required them to put up the entire Canadian division as collateral resulting in that division seeking the equivalent of Chapter 11 under Canadian law. The interest rate is also rumored to be a usurious 10 to 15 points above Libor.
If GM tries Chapter 11 without government backstop it will be the end of GM and its supply chain.
Anak:
How bout just: "Sad the man who shouts." Period.
75 Billion! They're pikers; we can print 10 times that in seconds! BWAHAHAHA
.
Tyrone | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 8:34 pm
But you can't cover.
Every congressman who voted for Paulson's TARP should be impeached for stupidity!
I have a better idea - every American who voted for a second term or who voted for one of the Congressional incumbents who voted for TARP should have their citizenship revoked and be shipped straight to Havana.
mal writes:
It is not a recession, it is just a rest.
"Mummy's not dead. She's just sleeping."
. . . .
Look, boys and girls, can't we at least agree that this thing IS contained? Show me one piece of evidence that anything has been affected beyond the planet. Show me.
Okay. NASA. Space exploration. Puny little perambulations around the neighborhood. I'll granted you that.
So then, we are agreed that it is contained to the solar system?
Contained! See?
lurker, when I click on the Excel hyperlink Acrobat Reader opens the document, but opens to page 1, not the page I specify.
When I use Exploder or Firefox to open the pdf using the same command, it goes directly to the page, so my command format seems correct.
There must be something going on in Excel(?).
mp, wait, found this
from the Acrobat help file, pp. 486-9
The help file DOES NOT state this, but research has revealed that the Adobe website explains that "the viewing machine must be set to use the Acrobat plug-in and not the application to view the PDF".
Summary: Apparently the commands pass only to the plug-in; one cannot get a user to view a specific page if the client machine is set to view with the Acrobat reader application.
So the link must use a browser from what this says, and not Reader.
Is a born and bred American dope .. To think I was the fastest swimmer ...LOL
75 Billion! They're pikers; we can print 10 times that in seconds! BWAHAHAHA
.
But you can't cover.
Cover? Who said anything about covering? World, GIVE US YOUR PRODUCTS. BTW, we have NO INTENTION of actually paying you back!
Heard thruout the southern US when people are viewing a dead person..."My!Don't he/she look good.Looks like they could get up and just walk away"
Bigotry is as American as apple-Pie among born-and-bred American dopes. No one is bred with greater disdain for the "other," any other, not just race or ethnicity. Bigotry towards "others" makes a born-and-bred American dope feel good about himself. What else he has going for himself?! You are a sad case, but you are entitled to display your bigotry at will and as often as you need to. Yes, you do have the need.
Jas
Jas Jain | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 8:38 pm
Substitute human for American and you're ststement will smack of something closer to the bone than the racism you project.
Periwinkle - that boat makes me drool-
Cover? Who said anything about covering? World, GIVE US YOUR PRODUCTS. BTW, we have NO INTENTION of actually paying you back!
Tyrone | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 8:42 pm
How's that going?
broward, thought u'd might like this one:
magical assault on corporations (Version 2.35) | Mutate - Mutate
read especially the comment that is an excerpt from the book stolen lightning.
Lurker, thanks! I suspected as much.
So, I'll use Firefox to open Reader, blah, blah, blah.
I get it.
Bigotry is as American as apple-Pie among born-and-bred American dopes.
And you seem to be hellbent on demonstrating that bigotry is as indian as curry among indian dopes.
Which country will be first to call a
depression?
I think Iceland has won that 'competition'.
Unit472
Yep. Ironically, they are culturally more prepared than 99.9% of Americans.
I wonder if the departing shot across Obama's bow will be for GM to go Chapter 11 with Government DIP?
Lots of new on how 'big cities' are cutting programs. Gee... isn't that usually when they declare we really are in a recession? I guess its best to be amused!
Good luck to all those effected by the LA fires. Even if its just dealing with the smoke.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
In Jas' defense, I think the buying of US debt is a smart move. You may think it silly to buy the debt of dopes, but that is exactly the point- dopes pay and pay and never ask why.
--
"## Substitute human for American and you're ststement will smack of something closer to the bone than the racism you project."
Volker the Viking,
You have not considered the probability that Americans of today are uniquely doped with hubris, which is part and parcel of putting "others" down. Please do. Thanks.
Americans ARE unique!
Jas
Is anti-American sentiment racist? I mean, we're all kinda mutts.
Exit - try this version, too bad CSC ain't around to appreciate it, serious trippy:
Manic Depression, the greatest show on earth...
YouTube -
Joe Shmoe - Asia pissed at G20 fail:
Bloomberg.com:
World Indexes
Go NZD! Make my day punk.
CC
You have not considered the probability that Americans of today are uniquely doped with hubris, which is part and parcel of putting "others" down. Please do. Thanks.
And you seem to have not considered the probability that indians of today are uniquely doped with hubris, which is part and parcel of putting "others" down. Please do. Thanks.
"Americans ARE unique!"
Yeah, they're definitely unique. They saved the world's ass only three times in the last century.
They're definitely unique.
Is anti-American sentiment racist? I mean, we're all kinda mutts.
Not about racism. Jas wants us not to comment on his ethnicity, and then comments on others ethnicity. (India is full of mutts as well.)
You have not considered the probability that Americans of today are uniquely doped with hubris, which is part and parcel of putting "others" down. Please do. Thanks.
Americans ARE unique!
Jas## Jas, please substitute whatever nationality you wish for Americans and your statement will ring true.
"You have not considered the probability that Americans of today are uniquely doped with hubris, which is part and parcel of putting "others" down. Please do. Thanks.
Americans ARE unique!
Jas"
Interesting, coming from someone from the country that gave the world (and STILL practices) the caste system.
why can't AIG fail and the automakers can?
Not all automakers, just the Detroit Three.
Look at where the foreign automakers are based. Mostly very red southern states with very powerful senators (e.g. Shelby).
Re GM - Would it not be cheaper for the govenrment to offer DIP financing then an outright bailout? It is important to reset the debt burden, so GM has to go into Ch11
## How's that going?
Don't know; I exited the stock market a year ago (at peak) and went into gold and silver.
Interesting, coming from someone from the country that gave the world (and STILL practices) the caste system.
My recommendation: Let's stick to Jas' personal hypocrisy, which is the defining characteristic of "dope" rather than commenting on the actual ethnic background.
I happen to love India. Jas is nothing more than attention seeking bigot that deals in ethnic hatred while pretending to be offended by it when directed at him.
mp - Would care to name those three times? I can see WWI, but what are the other two?
Jas,
I have never picked a fight with you, or disparaged you in any way. But I want to ask you a serious question.
Accounting for the deflationary model, in which i wholeheartedly agree, how do you reconcile that with the law of scarcity. Meaning, once deflation hits critical mass and capacity destruction and production overcapacity is revealed (something I believe we are witnessing now, see China manufacturing and the collapse of international shipping), how does monetary policy even adjust fast enough to avoid shortages and the resulting core commodity inflation?
Zimbabwe is one example, not perfect but a road map nonetheless.
Inability to borrow at competitive rates, and massive borrowing with no corresponding increase in production can only serve to weaken the value of the currency, coupled with less currency demand via decreased import/export activity.
While the US is a stable bet, deflation and its effects are obvious, but as you tip past that, wouldn't deflationary pressures take a back seat to the corresponding inability to produce our basic needs, thereby leading to increased costs??
Honest question, try and be nice.
--
Dopes, especially "Printing Money" dopes, have been trying to educate "Jas" on inflation for more than ten years. Dopes never admit defeat no matter how long they are wrong or how much they are wrong.
$30Tr. of global wealth has been destroyed by asset deflation. Which is more powerful, asset deflation or monetary inflation?
Jas
Of all the blogs I follow, Jas is by far the most effective concern troller. Hats off, Sir!
Don't know; I exited the stock market a year ago (at peak) and went into gold and silver.
Tyrone | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 8:54 pm
Quit complaining.
Dopes never admit defeat no matter how long they are wrong or how much they are wrong.
ESPECIALLY indian-born dopes jas?
mp writes:
"Americans ARE unique!"
Yeah, they're definitely unique. They saved the world's ass only three times in the last century.
They're definitely unique.
mp | 11.16.08 - 8:50 pm | #
You are only counting the major public events, millions owe their very existence to our military delivering aid during natural and not so natural disasters.
I don't put much stock in Iran and Saudi Arabia beefing up their gold reserves. But if it becomes a third world trend, it could be big.
For example, what if Venezuela and Russia started beefing up gold reserves and pegging their currencies to gold?
And then Argentina, Peru, Equador and Brazil?
These are among the world's dominant commodity-producing countries, outside Australia and Canada. Why should they take worthless crap dollars in exchange for their valuable commodities?
For that matter, why should Australia and Canada?
@MrM
World War I, II, and the Soviet Union.
Needless to say, the US had many partners but, absent the US, it would have turned out very, very differently.
Capitalism is at a dead end. That's the elephant in the room. This crisis can be traced directly back to the early 70's economic crisis. US profit growth since 1980 or so consists of off-shoring manufacturing and more and more reckless financial speculation. World War 2 'saved' capitalism last time.
"You are only counting the major public events, millions owe their very existence to our military delivering aid during natural and not so natural disasters."
Quite true.
World War 2 'saved' capitalism last time.
purple | 11.16.08 - 8:59 pm | #
So you say.
--
Senorito On-Topico,
A very succinct answer is: I don't forecast deflation forever. Only for the next 3-5 years, my forecast time-horizon. There IS plenty of EXCESS CAPACITY, built during the bubbles-led boom, to last for at least 3 years and most likely 5 years.
Please let me know if I have answered the question. I do like to keep my answers short; hence, I cant go into various details.
Jas
Jas Jain writes:
"Dopes, especially "Printing Money" dopes, have been trying to educate "Jas" on inflation for more than ten years. Dopes never admit defeat no matter how long they are wrong or how much they are wrong."
Was this my answer??
BTW, Senorito On-Topico: The right answer to your question is that the shortages do not overcome the hording that is causing the deflation. Upon any price rise, demand drops or substitution occurs.
If the shortage does overcome the deflation and prices rise, well, then it's not a deflationary environment anymore: It indicates that there is a sufficient amount of money (and demand) to support the higher price.
I get both the Defaltion and Inflation arguments.. they are irrelevant when DEFAULT happens
I get both the Defaltion and Inflation arguments.. they are irrelevant when DEFAULT happens
I get both the Defaltion and Inflation arguments.. they are irrelevant when DEFAULT happens
Crewman | 11.16.08 - 9:02 pm |
Uh huh.
mp - the concerted download of US tech, industry and IP to North Asia from the 50s until about 1971 must also count. This was the most spectacularly successful example of a corollary to the Marshall Plan ever witnessed.
And people have no idea, generally.
CC
I get both the Defaltion and Inflation arguments.. they are irrelevant when DEFAULT happens
Not really. Default drives in the deflationary direction.
"...the concerted download of US tech, industry and IP to North Asia from the 50s until about 1971 must also count. This was the most spectacularly successful example of a corollary to the Marshall Plan ever witnessed."
I agree, completely.
Why@ ZIRP writes:
"IF they can get a DIP (Debtor-in-possesion) loan big enough to allow them to continue operating and they don't trigger a massive CDS default event and nervous creditors that have been granted the ridiculous exemptions under the 2005 law do not tear them apart, then they might emerge whole from Chapter 11...
Since none of the banks have been making large DIP loans and show no inclination to do so, it is a moot point. If they try Chapter 11, it will fail due to lack of operating cash and they will be liquidated...
If GM tries Chapter 11 without government backstop it will be the end of GM and its supply chain."
My guess is that you have answered your own question. It seems that if anything happens with the Big 3, governments will also be entangled.
I'm not a credit person, but my guess is that whatever "restructuring" the Big 3 undertake will be a big deal, dwarfing anything else attempted. (It may be that the "restructuring" will occur without a bankruptcy; perhaps they can offload health care costs to Uncle Sam, or something like that.) They would probably be too big for standard DIP financing sources, even if it was available.
The CDS issue won't affect the Big 3; it'll be everyone else's problem. CDS protection holders have no bargaining power with respect to the underlying entity. Only the actual debt holders have any say, which is not a new development. As for the other exemptions granted in the 2005 law, I'm guessing these would only impact hedging operations, where their counterparties can seize collateral.
mp, please check the section on opening destinations in the following link
Link from an HTML page to a specific page in PDF file (Acrobat 7.x, Acrobat 3D)
mp - with all due respect
WWII was not want by the US, at least if you count who destroyed the most German troops. The Red Army destroyed 2-3 times more Nazis than the Allies. WII was, alas, not an example of democracy triumphing over dictatorship. It was one dictatorship beating another.
As for USSR - I am curious to hear Pavel's view, but I would argue that it was Gorby's achievement the USSR went down peacefully, and not Reagan's. The US did corner the USSR, but it could have ended very badly for the world.
So I would count one world save by the US, not three
"Not really. Default drives in the deflationary direction."
I remember the US default on its obligation to redeem the Dollar with gold in 1971.
I do not remember the deflationary 70's.
I guess default is what i was pointing to.
My point is that for most Americans, the stress will be more than they can bear. That coupled with an inability to ascertain our new place in the world, has ugly, ugly ramifications.
We really think we are special.
Formerly known as ni,
(warning: non-financial discussion, sort of)
The history of caste in India is a fascinating subject with perhaps some broader relevance, indirectly, to some of the edgy exchanges of the last few days. At the risk of getting involved in things I don't want to be involved in, here goes:
What "we" (a squishy term) think of as caste is a product British colonial rule. Before the British, and after, there have been practices around what in Hindi is called jati, which can mean several different things and can be subject to changes and disjunctures with hierarchy.
The British froze this conjeries (nothing to do with Conjure, though he no doubt witnessed the Brits playing this game) of categories in an attempt to freeze the population into a rigid order, more easy to classify, categorize, surveil and control.
The word "caste," interestingly enough for Americans, is derived from the Portuguese casta (same in Spanish) that Vasco de Gama brought to India when he busted in upon Goa and decided to stay.
"Casta" in the same era came to be the baroque system of racial classification that the Spanish and Portuguese developed to chart intricate differentiations and hierarchies of color among the emerging multi-racial population of the Americas.
The British settlers of North America notably developed a much more simple Black vs White dichotomoy, with smaller spaces in the racial order set aside for American Indians and, occasionally, for people of mixed ancestry.
Since the nineteenth century there has been lots of intellectual or pseudo-intellectual traffic between the supposed practice of "caste" in India and the practice of racism in the U.S. Quite a few studies directly apply the term "caste" in discussions of the racial order of the US South from emancipation to the 1960s.
A compelling argument can be made that the word "Caste" finds its ideal typical case in the Americas, and that its application in India is a projection, a second order application of a term developed elsewhere. In fact, several of the formative "scholarly" studies of "caste" in India (19th and early 20th century studies) made precisely this move, grounding the meaning of caste in orimary assumptions about race that developed in the context of the Americas.
Are Americans unique? As compared to what? Like the economic implosion, I think this is a question that cannot be contained.
I remember the US default on its obligation to redeem the Dollar with gold in 1971.
Exactly which contract was in default for that "default"?
"Show me one piece of evidence that anything has been affected beyond the planet."
The rotation of Saturn.
"CDS protection holders have no bargaining power with respect to the underlying entity. "
They have infinite blackmail potential when JPM is on the hook for multiples its allegedly remaining "value."
Jeebus, Shmoe, you're going to get me going on subalterns.
Think twice.
CC
Exactly which contract was in default for that "default"?
Anonymous | 11.16.08 - 9:10 pm
The promise to redeem a dollar in gold for every dollar in debt based on a fixed rate of exchange.
Anonymous writes:
I get both the Defaltion and Inflation arguments.. they are irrelevant when DEFAULT happens
Not really. Default drives in the deflationary direction
We will see sooner than later... 2 Trillion in auctions coming, better hope China shows up, if they don't enjoy wiping your ass with worthless paper
Was this my answer??
Senorito On-Topico | 11.16.08 - 9:01 pm | #
And again the indian-born dope is exposed as a charlatan.
Hey jas, there's a word for your vocabulary -- charlatan. Have you figured out how to use "paraphrase" in a sentence yet? What a dope.
Walker, thanks!
Go NZD! Make my day punk.
CC
Comrade Counterpointer
See you at 50c.
NZD = Iceland V2.0
Speaking of mutts, there is really is not much doubt that all humans came out of Africa fairly recently. Less than a 300 thousand years ago. Just google Mitochondrial DNA to learn about the fascinating field of human migration and how it's been traced. For what it's worth I am Indian by national origin. And the Americans i meet daily are some of the most generous and straighforward people in the world IMHO. As for dopiness not any more or less dopey than the average human.
rich writes:
"For example, what if Venezuela and Russia started beefing up gold reserves and pegging their currencies to gold?"
Then their currencies would rise up and down without any linkage to anything happening in their economy or the global economy, and they would have random economic booms and crashes.
"These are among the world's dominant commodity-producing countries, outside Australia and Canada. Why should they take worthless crap dollars in exchange for their valuable commodities?"
Some of the countries you mention also produce gold (Russia for sure, Canada and Australia, I think). Why would they want payment in a commodity that they also export? What are their citizens going to do, fill up their tanks with gold? Use gold to build houses? Fill their teeth? (OK, they could do that.)
--
"Was this my answer??"
Senorito On-Topico,
No faith? I reciprocate -- I am nice to the nice and nasty to nasties. Just to clarify. some nice people are simply wrong-headed, e.g., CR, when it comes to CRE, housing demand and severity of the current recession. In general, CR is a great reporter. I have specific criticisms of CR, but I praise him as often because he deserves it.
Jas
Anonymous,
He answered, I just pulled the trigger too quick. My bad.
So Japan enters recession, Nikkei goes up. Go contrarian!
Charlatan. Hard word for you, huh Jas.
Hey Anonymous,
Not in my name bud, I already apologized.
Not in my name bud, I already apologized.
Noted. Sorry for the friendly fire.
Volker the Viking writes:
"Exactly which contract was in default for that "default"?
Anonymous | 11.16.08 - 9:10 pm
The promise to redeem a dollar in gold for every dollar in debt based on a fixed rate of exchange."
That particular default occurred in the 1930s.
Post WWII, there was no convertibility of gold for citizens. Gold was only used for international settlement purposes. (Other countries used both gold and the U.S. for reserves.) But the Bretton Woods system had been breaking down for a decade, and they finally pulled the plug on outflows of gold. If they had not done so, the French would have ended up with almost all the U.S. government's gold (they were the ones demanding gold).
The problems of Ford, GM and Chrysler
seem to be that they cannot sell cars.
Their pension, financing and capital
issues could all disappear and they would still have that rather large issue confronting them.
If we are to save our domestic auto industry the better use of public funds would be, in my opinion, to stimulate demand.
The USG could offer to buy up older
gas guzzling autos and offer sellers a low cost loan for the purchase of a new domestically produced high mileage vehicle. By doing so we create
sales for GM etc and reduce our current account deficit, pollution and energy dependance. Seems a much more efficient solution than simply pouring money into the auto industry.
Exactly which contract was in default for that "default" ## The promise to redeem a dollar in gold for every dollar in debt based on a fixed rate of exchange.
From wiki on Breton Woods: "Meanwhile, in order to bolster faith in the dollar, the U.S. agreed separately to link the dollar to gold at the rate of $35 per ounce of gold. At this rate, foreign governments and central banks were able to exchange dollars for gold. Bretton Woods established a system of payments based on the dollar, in which all currencies were defined in relation to the dollar, itself convertible into gold, and above all, "as good as gold"."
We will see much consolidation within the recreation of all the empires:
The offer, worth A$10.35 a share based on the last closing prices, has a ``number of material deficiencies,'' Sydney-based Coca-Cola Amatil said in a statement today. The company is considering the bid which it said is incomplete and non-binding.
Post WWII, there was no convertibility of gold for citizens. Gold was only used for international settlement purposes. (Other countries used both gold and the U.S. for reserves.) But the Bretton Woods system had been breaking down for a decade, and they finally pulled the plug on outflows of gold. If they had not done so, the French would have ended up with almost all the U.S. government's gold (they were the ones demanding gold).
bond guy | 11.16.08 - 9:20 pm
Exactly. De Gaulle(sp?) had the good sense to send his navy to NYC to exchange the debt instruments for hard metal that he could take possession of. And you are correct, France would have ended up with all the gold.
Hmmm...... sounds like the hard metal bugs have it right.
So, we agree.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Life and mortgage insurer Genworth Financial Inc said on Sunday it applied for capital under a U.S. government program, after reaching a deal to buy a bank, bringing it under federal regulation.
With the move, Genworth joins Hartford Financial Services Group Inc, a large property and life insurer, in seeking to change its regulatory status in order to participate in the Treasury Department's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
Genworth declined to say what amount of capital it was seeking.
I'm mad as hell and not going to take it anymore.
Today bloomberg announces that goldman has decided not to pay bonuses for the 7 top officers.
However some phucking analyst or other is quoted as saying this move is prudent as it "frees up money to pay to the other staff" because (and this is where I spat coffee) "there is still a war for talent" (on wall street).
How can their be a war for talent on wall street when every company is shedding thousands upon thousands of employees? the finance world has changed now, company structures have changed. One in two hedge funds are going to shut and throw eggheads out on the street. what was "talent" in 2002 is not necessarily able to make a dime in 2009! anyone who thinks they know otherwise is either an idiot or misleading on purpose.
So the bailout money is going to pay huge BONUSES to the rank-and-file who survive the knife in 2007?
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRGGGG!!!!!!
CC - thanks for the other Jimi link.
As in We're all subaltern now? Sounds about right.
With Jas it is a personal thing. As he explained to me in a private email, he was traumatized in his early years in America. I told him I would not violate his trust so I can not tell you the anquish he suffered in the locker room.
Plantagenet : Suggest you look at the original agreement, not just wikipedia. There were rights of refusal for exigencies built into the agreement as well.
"Default" usually has a legal meaning. In that legal meaning, large defaults are deflationary, which was the point of this exercise.
So the bailout money is going to pay huge BONUSES to the rank-and-file who survive the knife in 2007?
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRGGGG!!!!!!
Anonymous | 11.16.08 - 9:25 pm
Bait and switch. Wait for it, the sentiment is not yet in place to do what you suggest.
Jas wrote:
"Bigotry is as American as apple-Pie among born-and-bred American dopes. No one is bred with greater disdain for the "other," any other"
your statement is so stunningly wrong it is ridiculous.
In India untouchables have acid thrown in their face for looking at a Brahman. In Iran homosexuals are hanged to death. Hutu slaughtered Tutsi just for being other. In Saudi Arabia you can be executed for proselytizing Christianity.
THAT, my foolish friend, is REAL disdain and hatred for "other"
many of the worlds persecuted peoples come to America BECAUSE of our ACCEPTANCE.
Your statements are beyond absurd, stick to economics and finance.
andy in nz - no, I'll see you at 43.
The quad is looking dangerous and filled with opportunity.
CC
I told him I would not violate his trust so I can not tell you the anquish he suffered in the locker room.
It would explain a lot. He is the indian equiv of a skin head. BS talk, make himself feel good, cuz he's such a dope.
Money, it's a hit, don't gimmie that do goody-good...
The yen strengthened to 121.18 per euro as of 10:22 a.m. in Tokyo from 122.39 late in New York on Nov. 14. Japan's currency rose to 96.61 per dollar from 97.14 and Soma forecast it may reach 90.93 this week. Against the dollar, the euro fell to $1.2541 from $1.2605.
Japan's yen advanced against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies, rising the most versus the Australian dollar. It climbed 1.6 percent to 61.97 per Australian dollar and 0.9 percent to 53.22 per New Zealand dollar.
GM loses 90% of its value. Teetering on bankruptcy and going hat in hand looking for bailout money to keep the lights on. One thing remains constant. So goes GM, so goes the US
--
joe shmoe,
Sorry, I haven't mentioned here but America IS a caste society, much more so than India, presently.
The single defining characteristic of a caste society is high correlation between economic professions and ethnicity. Another is high concentration in certain neighborhoods and geographical areas. Rings a bell?
THERE IS GREATER SEGREGATION IN AMERICAN SCHOOLS THAT ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bunch of racist and classist bigots, a part and parcel of being morally bankrupt dopes considering the professed ideology preached to the world. There cannot be a worse messenger of democracy, equality, etc., than Americans.
Jas
Jas,
Life is too short, said my dead pet mosquito. All good.
Now, as to my business and what I do, would you be shocked to learn that internal surety/insurance company numbers are calling for a 80% reduction in the amount of contracting companies, irregardless of market share and discipline in the next 6-8 months?? For the Western region (CA,AZ,NV,CO,UT). I think we havent seen peak deflation yet, but the capacity destruction is so freaking huge, that people I know, who know stuff, important stuff, are starting to Freak the F**K out. In AZ, construction dollars are 1 in 3, NV, 1 in 4, and down the line.
Entire metro areas are being wiped out, of working capital, margins, and ability to do future business. Developers are being wiped out. Our richest citizens are taking massive haircuts.
This is the example I know best but there are many more.
When the trucks stop delivering, there will be bigger problems than inflation. I think this is bigger than many realize.
Your statements are beyond absurd, stick to economics and finance.
When has Jas EVER stuck to economics and finance, especially when he can inject ethnic hatred into the discussion.
Volker the Viking writes:
"Hmmm...... sounds like the hard metal bugs have it right.
So, we agree."
Sure, I'd agree that the U.S. had to back off the gold convertability pledge. However, that pledge was in the context of an international financial framework that no longer bore any resemblence to the facts on the ground. It's debateable who's fault that was; in any international agreement, it takes two to tango.
My take away from the whole episode is that it proved yet again that any attempt to base a monetary framework on gold is doomed. I guess we might not agree about that.
Tora Tora Kona
Yep, big news..
Trading in Lion Nathan shares - Australia's second-largest brewer, have been put on hold by the New Zealand Stock Exchange, after reports emerged this morning about a potential merger with soft drinks group Coca-Cola Amatil.
The Australian Financial Review reported the news today, saying a merger would create a A$11 billion ($13.02 billion) company.
Discussions have intensified in recent weeks with the involvement of both parent companies in the talks, the paper said without citing sources.
Lion Nathan is 46 per cent owned by Japan's Kirin Brewery Co and Coca-Cola Amatil is 30 per cent owned by US-based The Coca-Cola Company.
The trading halt will remain in place until the announcement is made to the stock exchange.
Coke may get a bounce tomorrow?
Bond Guy mentioned that GM going BK would not be as bad as AIG. He made valid points. I believe GM going under would be the event that tips this country into a depression. The effect on jobs, communities, and the world view, both by Americans, and the world, would be huge.
In India untouchables have acid thrown in their face for looking at a Brahman. In Iran homosexuals are hanged to death. Hutu slaughtered Tutsi just for being other. In Saudi Arabia you can be executed for proselytizing Christianity.
You're making my point.
--
nova: Ponies Saving Souls,
Frikin liar. I am sure a bigot too.
Jas
"I am curious to hear Pavel's view, but I would argue that it was Gorby's achievement the USSR went down peacefully, and not Reagan's."
Very complex question, but it was both of them, and also what secular people would call luck, and others the grace of God. But it's understood that there were many more people involved than 'leaders.'
What I know personally (as it was told to me) is that a message was conveyed from the American side at the beginning of the 80s that the US was not interested - to put it mildly - in engaging in nuclear war. It would proceed with economic competition in the arms race, aimed at defeating the SU without resorting to war.
Gorbachev was told by an adviser in about 1989 (as it was explained to me) that Germany was gone, eastern Europe was gone, but that he could strike a deal in which the SU proper would be preserved. That would have included the Baltic republics - but we know how that turned out.
The SU was entering a non-functional stage. You had to be there to see what sort of debacle it was.
As for a peaceful resolution: MAD was never a certain solution to the problem of preventing nuclear war. Furthermore, so far as I know (based on what I was told) in terms of strategic weapon systems the SU appeared to be, at least potentially, dangerously unstable during the collapse. At that point Gorbachev had very little if anything to do with command and control. For that the command authority would have been the Chief of the General Staff.
(I have been convinced for a long time now that as long as strategic weapons systems exist, nobody is safe. )
Sure, I'd agree that the U.S. had to back off the gold convertability pledge. However, that pledge was in the context of an international financial framework that no longer bore any resemblence to the facts on the ground. It's debateable who's fault that was; in any international agreement, it takes two to tango.
My take away from the whole episode is that it proved yet again that any attempt to base a monetary framework on gold is doomed. I guess we might not agree about that.
bond guy | 11.16.08 - 9:31 pm
My guess is that the framework will not be international.
Iowa Senator Charles Grassley said a tax ruling that helped Wells Fargo & Co. buy Wachovia Corp. raises concerns about ``preferential treatment'' for Wachovia, which is headed by former Treasury Department Undersecretary Robert Steel.
In a letter sent to Treasury Inspector General Eric Thorson, Grassley asked for an investigation into the Internal Revenue Service ruling because it would let Wells Fargo shelter about $74 billion from U.S. taxes and ensure top Wachovia executives collect golden-parachute severance payments.
``The facts and circumstances surrounding the issuance of the notice, particularly as it relates to Wells Fargo's purchase of Wachovia Corporation, raises concerns about the independence of the decision makers,'' Grassley, the ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, wrote. The lawmaker asked Thorson to review all documents and communication related to the notice, especially records of contacts between Treasury Department and bank officials.
Jas Jain(Irritating) writes:
I am sure a bigot too.
Finally. An open admission of wrongdoing!!!
There may be hope for you yet, you dope.
Jas's Mommy writes:
Iowa Senator Charles Grassley said a tax ruling that helped Wells Fargo & Co. buy Wachovia Corp. raises concerns about ``preferential treatment''
Grassley is the last SOB you want on your ass
andy in nz - no, I'll see you at 43.
The quad is looking dangerous and filled with opportunity.
CC
Comrade Counterpointer
Ouch, that is going to leave a mark! By when? Have a Term Deposit rolling over next week, am in a panic about what to do!
Talking heads are on about a 1%+ rate cut here in early december, that will kill the yield differential then, wheeeeeee!!
--
craig,
Your ignorance shows. Let us keep at that.
Jas
For god's sake, would everyone please stop responding to Jas Jain.
It's a pure waste of time, and only encourages him to post more repetitive nonsense.
Please. Stop.
" large defaults are deflationary, which was the point of this exercise."
I agree that within a FR system, failure to repay a debt is deflationary. Plenty of that going on now.
If the US sent China a billion wheelbarrows full of Federal Reserve Notes, it would not be a contractual default. But it might not be deflationary.
As to why AIG should be saved, while GM should be allowed to fail, I think 'caste' might be the answer. Yes or No?
001 | 11.16.08 - 9:34 pm |
Interesting point. GM = grubby men doing "old economy" work. AIG = the bright shining future of America. Attired in good suits and knowing when to order Thai.
Grassley is the last SOB you want on your ass
Why exactly?
Jas, do you wonder if you like conflict too much?
ova: Ponies Saving Souls writes:
"Bond Guy mentioned that GM going BK would not be as bad as AIG. He made valid points. I believe GM going under would be the event that tips this country into a depression. The effect on jobs, communities, and the world view, both by Americans, and the world, would be huge."
I'm not minimizing the impact of any hypothetical bankruptcy. However, my point was that the most likely outcome is restructuring, not liquidation. I.e., there will still be a GM making cars, and so not everyone loses their jobs or benefits. But even if the Big 3 avoid bankruptcy, that restructuring is likely to occur. There's no avoiding the fact that this will be a deep recession by post-WWII standards.
The fear for AIG, was that a disorderly liquidation may have been triggered (like Lehman), which could take down the banking system. That fear may have been baseless, but it's not completely implausible.
The "R" word is so very passe. We are headed into a great depression that will boggle all minds. BOOK IT!
Gold will fall through the $650 floor this week.
To make sure they are getting constant value for their exports, not illusory value.
We are facing at period in which the value of currencies, manufactured products and ,many services will have flat or declining values, relative to hard assets and commodities.
So, you could achieve the same result by bypassing currencies and bartering commodities for goods and services in a free, unmanipulated market. But pegging currencies to gold (or silver, or oil) would serve the same purpose.
It's about getting rid of financial manipulation that works against emerging market commodity producers and having them get value for value.
Exit - nah, there's a vanilla wrapper version of subaltern, and a much richer postmodernist analysis version. It basically relates to a special thread of analysis common on the subcontinent about collusion, collaboration, and cultural inferiority dealing with the occupying power. I used to go to conferences and wished I'd had a gong when I got to 10 stylized references to subaltern theory, writing, praxis and so on, at which whack the gong...
All a bunch of what comes out of the back end of a horse, and I don't mean tails, fat or otherwise.
Of course the engagement with Jas on this board has nothing to do with this.
CC
How can they in recession? I thought they were supposed to save us? Rut row ...
What MR said.
bond guy | 11.16.08 - 9:37 pm
In theory that makes a lot of sense. My view is that a GM BK will equal the death of GM. I say this based on the current economic climate. What sales they have, what dealers who still can finance, will disapear.
@amoney
"Gold will fall through the $650 floor this week."
I can only see that if equity markets also tank. What think?
Uh-oh, it looks like the townspeople are getting a bit annoyed with Jas.
Pavel - I think it is highly likely that if Andropov had not passed away, the confrontation of the weakening USSR with the more powerful USA would have ended very differently. For old KGB/Party types defeat was not an option, regardless of how many lives would cost.
Bond guy
GM will sell world wide divisions first, the Aussie Government will have to come to the rescue of holden, EU to rescue opal etc. There are options, looks like GM are beholden to glacial management decision making! And an avalanche of bad paper if the sucker goes down. Hell I have a $20 bet with my dad that its over for GM by mid 2009!
If AIG would have failed we'd be in the last 4 weeks in a deep depression. With GM, it ain't gonna be like that, just more job losses and further cut in production capability in the US
Canterbury of New Zealand Rugby Shirt costs $231.85 NZD/$128.00 USD. They need to reduce the price to $85.00 NZD before they get this individual to buy one...
Uh-oh, it looks like the townspeople are getting a bit annoyed with Jas.
That indian-born dope lives for conflict, right jas? And have you figured out how to "paraphrase" yet? How about "castigate"? Is your vocabulary growing today? Or is that too much to ask from a dope?
Jas Wrote:
"Your ignorance shows. Let us keep at that."
wow, what a powerful retort. hilarious when the accusations are totally ignored and the messenger is attacked.
We will leave it at that. enjoy the rest of your evening good Sir.
.
Jas Jain writes:
Bigotry is as American as apple-Pie among born-and-bred American dopes. No one is bred with greater disdain for the "other," any other, not just race or ethnicity.
Point 1: Jas's 2nd sentence reeks of the bigotry and stereotyping he decries in his 1st sentence.
Point 2: Seen a picture of our president-elect yet? The guy has a helluva "tan".
Volker the Viking writes:
"## My guess is that the framework will not be international."
Yes, but, but you have to deal with the international dimension. North Korea is about the only closed economy out there, and as far as I know, they are still dependent upon food imports.
A gold-based economy would have to barter with non-gold based economies if it is to avoid the evils of fiat currencies. The most likely means of barter would be gold.
And so the economy would be an uncontrollable boom if it has an export bubble, with gold inflows inflating the local economy. And once the gold starts flowing out, the economy will go into a deflationary death spiral. And if it is a strict gold-based currency, there is nothing the policymakers can do, other than break the link to gold.
Which is exactly what happened to everybody in the Gold Standard days, which is why every policymaker dropped gold targetting like a live hand grenade.
GM not recieving gov aid while AIG, and others of its kind, will in time become the example that will be used as a political rally point for the working class.
El Cliffo - are you really Tom Tomorrow? You've got a fabulous visual sense if yr not.
Respeck.
CC
World War 2 'saved' capitalism last time.
Does the Iraq war stimulate economic activity in the US? If yes, would a much larger war with Iran save us from a recession? Will there ever be a more useful time to take down the regimes in Sudan, Burma, North Korea, Venezuela, and Syria?
Anonymous - please stop. Your point is well made. At the risk of offending you, you're getting to be as tedious is he is. Now give it a rest.
Theories of ethnic or national superiority have been proven wrong dozens of times over the last few centuries. For posterity, it's best not to go there in ones writings.
El Cliffo where did you get that picture. There's another really great one like that at currier and ives on wiki.
--
"Uh-oh, it looks like the townspeople are getting a bit annoyed with Jas."
El Cliffö,
Jas must be telling truths that are undeniable and are upsetting to the townspeople. Nothing gets the goat of a born-and-bred American dope than criticism that is true and he can't do anything about it (can't change dopes and Crooks).
Athenians, real townspeople, weren't too happy with poor Socrates. Dopes are invariably intolerant and want blood of the critics rather than that of the real evildoers.
Jas
A fact to keep in mind regarding The Great Depression- the forty hour workweek was informally in use by a few companies in 1929 and was legally defined about 1935
Anonymous writes:
Grassley is the last SOB you want on your ass
Why exactly?
He's mean, smart and is not a true politician. He does nothing for show, they are ends to his means and methods to his madness.
World War 2 'saved' capitalism last time.
Does the Iraq war stimulate economic activity in the US?
The wars are not comparable on any scale. 50 + million people died in WW2. Then, countries had to rebuild. Germany and Japan were essentially gone in 1946.
ova: Small Indian Ponys writes:
Interesting point. GM = grubby men doing "old economy" work. AIG = the bright shining future of America. Attired in good suits and knowing when to order Thai.
nova: Small Indian Ponys | 11.16.08 - 9:37 pm
How about this one? AIG going into bankruptcy triggers a massive CDS default tanking the entire financial system? People can live without GM, Ford, or Chrysler cars. The government ponying up FDIC insurance for the entire banking industry = FAIL!
Senorito On-Topico:
Isn't the deflation, then inflation scenario one where we will experience economic crack-the-whip?
Shouldn't the proper investment response be to invest in (i.e., buy and hold) both "deflation proof" investments AND "inflation proof", unless you are confident that you can time a future switch from 100% "deflation proof" to 100% "inflation proof"?
Pavel Chichikov writes:
...I have been convinced for a long time now that as long as strategic weapons systems exist, nobody is safe.
Could you imagine Pakistan & Osama being any safer than they currently are (against external villains)?
one does wonder if Treasury or Fed have modeled the systemic effect of a Big3 BK. Before Lehman went orbs up, they had people in all the banks monitoring, and believed Lehman could go down safely.
I cannot see why Canada, Mexico, Korea, Australia, German govts. are willing to stand on the sidelines as our pols decide their fates.
ACT LIKE A MAN!
P.S. that Anonymous was me.
He's mean, smart and is not a true politician.
I find it hard to believe such a creature exists. But let's hope so.
Which is exactly what happened to everybody in the Gold Standard days, which is why every policymaker dropped gold targetting like a live hand grenade.
bond guy | 11.16.08 - 9:44 pm
The only one to drop gold was Nixon. Everyone followed suit since the dollar was the reserve currency.
A true price discovery of gold would be sufficient to fund any currency. Of course, it would put all the snot noses (in YC and the financial community in a rweal hurt locker. Not that that would be a bad ting.
All I suggest is that hard money, the abolition of fractional reserve banking and abolition of CB's could lead to a real era of prosperity.
Of course, greed trumps reason absent a limiting authority, so we'd need sometjing to tamper all the ambition. Unless, this new way of thinking about money becomes (transmogrifies) into a suddenly peaceful way of life.
spulling errors: YC - NYC, Must stop guzzling beer.
"Theories of racial or national supremacy have been proven wrong dozens of times over the past few centuries"
I'm not aware of that being the case at least over the past few centuries.
I might agree with you that it is probably a stupid theory but, empirically, the racists have the upper hand.
Anglo Saxons, Jews, Germans, Japanese
all conform to the 'theory'. Blacks and Latinos too. It maybe wrong but the evidence to disprove it is not yet been presented.
re: CDS on GM
I had read that a trillion was at stake. Here is a reference that says it is only a few billion, after netting out. Curious.
GM, Ford, GE debt volumes exceed CDS exposures
| Reuters
Just one comment.
The people in govt do not know what they are doing.
We know that. Everybody is always saying that on this blog, and I don't think there is any disagreement on that.
The scary thing is not that they don't know what they are doing, but that they think they do.
So we get the bad effects of hubris, along with the consequences of screwing up.
Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I can see scenarios with the Big 3 surviving, albeit in a smaller form. They almost certainly will have to cut capacity; without the very lax lending standards of the past decade, they will not be able to sell as many cars.
And the wisdom of betting the farm on SUV's and light trucks is mind-boggling. This seems to be the biggest problem they face, which I do not know whether they can overcome.
But there does appear to be room for them to get their fixed costs down, especially if the government takes some of those costs over.
"any attempt to base a monetary framework on gold is doomed"
Wow. Leave the kids with the babysitter for 37 years and all hell breaks out. I would humbly suggest almost any non-Keynesian history book.
--
An interesting thought experiment...
Replace Jas with Ira, Jain with Epstein and Indian with Jew (I hope that Jew is not a dirty word here, it is not to me; it is same as Hindu, or Jain or Muslim) and read all the comments. Bigotry might get real explicit than "subtle." Dopes are intolerant but are also afraid. American bigotry is beyond the ability of a born-and-bred American dope to comprehend.
Jas
Jas Jain(Irritating) writes:
Jas must be telling truths that are undeniable and are upsetting to the townspeople.
That's one possibility, there is another.
Oh, and mr refer-to-yourself-in-the-third-person? The word you were looking for is "I". It conjugates to "I am telling truths". It's tough conjugating "to be", but even a dope like you will get the hang of it after a while.
lawyerliz :
They know what they are doing.
They behave that way because it is what is expected of them. Entertainment culture that it has become.
CC-
"Subcontinent" - so, India / Pakistan / Bangladesh specifically, given the colonization of SE Asia had other Euro flavors aside from British?
I'd favor some reading tips, if you would.
BTW, I found somewhat more value in Foucault than you evidently do, but am open to learn more.
In re: the other name brought up, I find it mostly amusing, but also distracting. The "discussion" diverts attention away from the message.
And not the message that we're all dopes, but rather, how do we use that information to our advantage? While, hopefully, not leaving the rest of the American Idiot's as, in fact, dopes.
You are very kind CC, but I'm not Tom Tomorrow, and even Tom Tomorrow isn't Tom Tomorrow.
Jas Jain(Irritating) writes:
American bigotry is beyond the ability of a born-and-bred American dope to comprehend.
Apparently, indian bigotry is beyond the ability of an indian-born dope to comprehend. So sad.
@lawyerliz
"The scary thing is not that they don't know what they are doing, but that they think they do."
Very true that. Compounded by their need to go back to the voters and be able to tell them they did "something."
Just one more comment:
Why not leave Jas alone when he is in a pissy mood?
He contributes occasionally, and when he doesn't being ignored seems to be salubrious. He got better after being ignored for a while.
Testosterone.
Hmmmph.
When the trucks stop delivering, there will be bigger problems than inflation. I think this is bigger than many realize.
Senorito On-Topico | 11.16.08 - 9:29 pm | #
I think you are right On-Topico. once the local grocery is empty, it wont matter how much bread cost. inflation/deflation argument becomes meaningless as staples wont be had at any price. There isnt a real farm within 150 miles of me. that is scary.
nice pic Cliffo. ill be saving that one
(I have been convinced for a long time now that as long as strategic weapons systems exist, nobody is safe. )
Pavel Chichikov | 11.16.08 - 9:33 pm | #
From purely technical perspective, knowing how "fail safe" systems can fail, I agree.
The clear and present danger is more individual, in my view. I call it the "perception of scarcity". As we slip into the best publicized worldwide recession of all time, the individuals who know that it is coming perceive the diminution of their lifestyles and develop a siege mentality of self preservation that may or may not include the preservation of close relatives and acquaintances. Hoarding behaviors abound and selfishness increases.
Many are now without either the often laudable conscience of the pagan (some are a law unto themselves) or the spirit breathed conscience of the Christian. This is as grave a danger to the people as the strategic weapons, in my view.
I like your poetry.
What is the difference detween a harsh recession and a mild depression?
Is it possible to have a mild depression?
I'm convinced that most of those tweaking Jas ... are Jas. The troll is feeding himself.
Has, if I could replace you with an IRA, I most. Certainly would but the Feds would still confiscate it.
gerald writes:
I cannot see why Canada, Mexico, Korea, Australia, German govts. are willing to stand on the sidelines as our pols decide their fates.
ACT LIKE A MAN!
gerald, nobody can help the big3 anymore, they are beyond help.
how many of the owners of GM's bonds have recognized on their books that they trade at 22cents.
FWIW in the mid-eighties my brother in law was working for a Michigan senator when the law was changed to allow SUVs to be mass produced. Before that farmers had some special treatment as owners, but the Big3 had foreseen a huge opportunity. After witnessing the dealings the guy had to quit. He was sitting on the capital's steps talking to a friend and said he thought he had just quit.
The USA...us. How we have fallen. I have concluded anyone born before 1930 would look with shame upon what we became. I am proud of my country's history and ashamed of my own.
Something went wrong, very wrong.
38 years of delusions have created a reality of failure. On all levels.
I offer my heartfelt apologies to my children, I am sorry I failed to take a stand when it could have changed the course. I'm sorry for only thinking of my needs and not yours. I'm sorry I used money not mine to provide a life you didn't need or want. I'm sorry I ignored the suffering necessary so I could live in a big house with 2 cars, a boat, a quad runner, a jetski, a big tv, a laptop, a pc, a MAC. I'm sorry I didn't take part in guiding the republic. I'm sorry the air and water are poisoned. I'm sorry, so very sorry.
NZD, come here, yes, well it's fine at the top of the tower, yes I get dizzy too, no, we can't go back down the steps, try over here, just fine, hold my hand, no, it's good, it's a waterslide, lots of fun, it'll be a bit dark for a while, but it'll be great and you'll love the splash, yes, fast, but you've digested your breakfast, it'll be fine, ready, ok, sit there, all set, ok fantastic, see you at the bottom...
Oooh mama.
Bloomie has the numbers.
CC
Broward Horne writes:
""any attempt to base a monetary framework on gold is doomed"
Wow. Leave the kids with the babysitter for 37 years and all hell breaks out. I would humbly suggest almost any non-Keynesian history book."
It was fairly typical for economies to contract by 20% in the 19th century. This was the "glory years" of the gold standard.
The Great Depression occurred during the Gold Exchange Standard system, which was a modified Gold Standard. It was rather deep.
Post WWII, gold is irrelevent, and the major economies now decline by a few percent in a recession. Only Iceland looks like it will be crashing on a magnitude comparable to what was seen pre-WWII. And maybe that just shows that you shouldn't let your entire banking system turn into hedge funds.
lawyerliz
no we get obama hailing fdr for being willing to experiment. Just what we need a half wit academic debater type experimenting with a system so fragile and so broken as to be officially declared. Better yet we get the same crack crew who helped steer us into the cul de sac with the solution. When the US decides that the cause is hopeless, they will devalue in a preemtive and massive way. This will force a massive change but the US will at least have eradicated its foreign debt problme. The American people will be told it is in thier interest and there was no other option.
Default Fred?
A jubilee for us and nobody else.
Wow.
Now, nitey, nite.
For real.
Japan is in recession officially and have also called for the USD to remain as the global reserve currency.
Abandon hope all ye who abandon the dollar.. for now it seems.
--
"The USA...us. How we have fallen. I have concluded anyone born before 1930 would look with shame upon what we became. I am proud of my country's history and ashamed of my own."
shame,
Thank you, thank you, and thank you! At least, someone gets it. My criticism of America is in comparison with the American past. Only morons and bigots insist on comparisons with India.
Jas
Socrates (the Greek) poisoned himself rather than be ostricized. He could not stand life without being able to tell the plebs they were born and bred dopes.
So it must be with interlopers of great civilizations...
My recommendation: Jas lay off the curry. You act like my eleven year old when she has to much sugar (dopey).
Oooh mama.
Bloomie has the numbers.
CC
Comrade Counterpointer
You sweet talker, you!
Going out with a whimper..
o Topher, no
Bond Guy, the American public wanted big SUV's and Trucks. I am the proud owner of the biggest of them all in a 2008 Nissan Titan pickup with even more horsepower than a Chevy or Ford.
The most profitable car company in the world is Porsche and what do they produce but overpowered two seat sports cars and a $75,000 140mph SUV.
I might agree that the US industry has been plagued by poor design and quality issues but the 500 horsepower
Mustang is not one of them.
In 1957 the most expensive production car in the world was a Cadillac Eldorado. Those big fins and bodies dripping with chrome made Cadillac distinctive and worth the noney. Try and buy a 1957 thru 1961 El Dorado today and you'll see that excess has its place in automotive manufacturing.
Who was that GM designer of the 1950's. Harley something or other. That is what American car makers need.
Not some Congressman insisting Ford revist the Pinto or Chevy the Cavalier. You have to build cars people want and not government mandated econoboxes.
"any attempt to base a monetary framework on gold is doomed."
Given that when a fiat currency collapses, all you have left is the gold, I think your grandstanding a little bit.
Gold backed currency may not be the best idea but it is hardly "doom." Though, using a single metal as the support seems foolish. A mix of gold, silver, copper, nickel, steel and aluminum seems better to me.
In fact weren't pennys, dimes, nickels and Dollars organized just that way for a time.
My criticism of America is in comparison with the American past. Only morons and bigots insist on comparisons with India.
And my criticism of Jas is in comparison with the Jas past. Gone are the days where he could string together coherent thoughts and post at FSU. Now, he's a blubbering idiot who doesn't have the discipline to write more than few lines in CR comments.
Jas is a has-been. Washed up. Past prime. An old, useless, inchoate chattering dope.
This is a reason there has been a decline in gay tourism to Iran.
It's just not as much fun any more.
"Thank you, thank you, and thank you! At least, someone gets it. My criticism of America is in comparison with the American past. Only morons and bigots insist on comparisons with India."
Sorry Jaas, but the born and bred dope attitude is starting to permeate throughout India and Asia. To deny otherwise is to deny the reality on the ground.
Just because politicians do not act in their constituents' best interest doesn't mean they're incompetent. Perceived incompetence can camouflage psychopathic intentions very effectively.
Unit472 writes:
"Theories of racial or national supremacy have been proven wrong dozens of times over the past few centuries"
I'm not aware of that being the case at least over the past few centuries.
Unit472, the theory of the "arischer Herrenmensch" did not so well pan out for the Nazies. Believe me.
Comrade Counterpointer, I left a comment on a dead thread earlier today. Your music links are the best.
I always thought Grassley was trying too hard to look honest and open, like Lieberman. But I'll give him a chance.
mp, if you're lurking, I left you a comment at the end of the previous thread about the excel/pdf question. It doesn't look like you can do it with a hyperlink anymore, but I saw examples of macros people wrote to accomplish the same thing, and left you one in the comment.
Unit472-it's Harley Earl.
The CAFE standards forced all makers to produce small cars even when there was little demand. If not for it, Big3 would not even them I think. Our gas has just been too cheap for so many reasons.
Jain: I love you, i really do. Call it a night. you have lost the mojo, and its ruining the discussion. Try again tomorrow.
--
I feel that it is necessary to respond to bigots. Ask the Jews for the need to do so. Presently, no country is as bigoted as America. It only shows openly when the occasion arises; otherwise, it is "subtle." A bigot who hides his bigotry is worse than and open bigot. Todays Americans are mostly in the former category. 50 years ago they were open and honest bigots. Those were the good old days!
America has changed for the worse, much worse. If you dont believe me, just wait for 2-3 years.
Jas
In Reno, Nevada, the homeless have pitched tents downtown next to fancy hotels, casinos and restaurants. Some members of the tent city say they came to Reno looking for work in the casinos, but even the gaming industry is cutting back.
Reno has a limited number of beds in its homeless shelters, and people can stay only 2 weeks. Even fleabag motels cost about $200 a week, a cost far beyond the reach of many of the newly homeless.
Reno is built on the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada, at about 4,500 feet. It starts to get cold this time of year, and the city can receive significant snowfall. City and local charities need to work fast to get residents of the new tent city out of the cold.
Nevada has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation. But that downbeat economic indicator hasnt stopped job seekers. Earlier this week, a casino in Las Vegas received about 25,000 applications for 1,000 jobs.
Shantytowns Spring Up in Major US Cities-Minyanville
You have to build cars people want and not government mandated econoboxes.
Unit472 | 11.16.08 - 10:12 pm | #
That is so marvelously short-sighted as to defy description.
You are of course aware that "want" can be manufactured, and frequently gets morphed into "need".
My children "want" stuff (x-box, Wii, etc.) but we've determined that it's more prudent to take them to the library.
Large, inefficient vehicles are emblematic of the financial maelstrom we inhabit, and why the Big 3 are whispers away from collapse - and you somehow still believe that it's the manufacturer's god-given right to build them?
That's so .... I'd say it, I want to say it.... nope, refrained. One- of- the 7 dwarves.
Werner, it is true Germany was defeated in WW2 but it took the combined military forces of Russia, the US, the UK, Canada etc to do it.
If one was an advocate of racial superiority, German military performance in WW2 was an example not a refutation of it.
For those of us who love the comment section, please do not respond to Jas when he's trolling.
CR has already indicated that he might shut down the comments section if trolling contnues...please just ignore Jas.
UB,
Many call, few will hear and most will never connect with mp
The STARBUCKS recession menu:
Global Tall Depression = USA alone.
Global Grande Depression = USA + Europe.
Global Venti Depression = USA + Europe + Japan.
Global Venti Depression/Extra shot = USA + Europe + Japan + China.
Global Venti Depression/Extra shot/Caramel Macchiato flavour = USA + Europe + Japan + China + India + Brazil.
Global Venti Depression/Extra shot/White Chocolate Mocha flavour = USA + Europe + Japan + China + Russia.
Enjoy. We will all need caffeine for a while...!
Post WWII, gold is irrelevent, and the major economies now decline by a few percent in a recession. Only Iceland looks like it will be crashing on a magnitude comparable to what was seen pre-WWII. And maybe that just shows that you shouldn't let your entire banking system turn into hedge funds.
bond guy | 11.16.08 - 10:06 pm
Gold is irrelevent? Really? Then why didn't Nixon just let it is all go to France in 1971? Why do all major central banks and the IMF today still hold huge reserves in gold?
What do they know that you don't?
For those who have opinions on gold but haven't actually studied it, the United States has a history of adopting the gold standard, abandoning in and then re-adopting it.
We know why the gold standard is abandoned - to maintain gov't stpending during wartime.
Bu when you ask Keynesians why the gold standard was re-adopted, the usual answer is
"Because the policy makers of old were dumber than us modern guys"
I submit to you that there is an alternate answer....
Those policy makers are smarter.
Try spending a casino chip anywhere 200 miles outside the city of LV. Can you get a cargo container freight forwarded with it? Which cashiers cage are you headed for? And what do you want your final sum in, IOU's or gold?
flaminia - think I saw your one about the Boys Next Door, was that it? Freakin Melbourne Grammar brats. Good song tho'.
I've been trying to do Soviet France, just for the soviet refs but no can find.
Did Einsturzende Neubauten this morning. More when CR does a CRE collapse post. I'm picking two weeks out.
Heh heh. So much fun to be had in a crisis.
CC
Recession started June 2007.
Q4 GDP, 2008 will be -3.6 or -3.6 this is a foregone conclusion in my books.
"it's a waterslide, lots of fun, it'll be a bit dark for a while, but it'll be great and you'll love the splash"
CC, freaky analogy. I'm thinking Waiwera immediately.
Andy, and suspected timing on a rate cut announcement? Can it happen in such a dicey forex environment?
if the guv bails out biz, how's the gov goin' to fund itself, considering the anti-tax taliban our there
Morgan Stanley Cancels Christmas, Jobs
Merrill Lynch Joins War On Christmas
Deutsche Bank's German Guilt Ruins Christmas
Deutsche Bank's German Guilt Ruins Christmas - Dealbreaker - A Wall Street Tabloid - Business News Headlines and Financial Gossip
Exit, explain Porsche then?
Dudes, the other guys here can argue but the fact is... you don't know any history and you believe that 37 years of non-gold standard is both unusual and permanent.
it is neither.
The rest of the world has been working to re-introduce gold-backed currencies in EXPECTATION of a failed dollar for several years now.
Why do I know this and why do you NOT know it?
@Barley
"Recession started June 2007."
Sounds about right. When will the U.S. Gov admit it?
Gold is a random and not very stable standard, so one can hardly imagine modern world economy based on gold.
One reserve currency creates a "too big to fail" problem we are observing.
Why can't there be many universal currencies to countries to trade? If the world system is set to deal with trade in USD, EUR, Yen, RMB (unpegged), Rupee - would it not be much more stable?
OK, so I just finished reading (on paper) the California section of the LA Times. Everyone is lining up for a handout from Uncle Obama. And I heard Obama quoted on NPR today saying (paraphrasing) "we will not be worried about deficits for several years. We will spend whatever we need to."
So can anyone make a reasonable case that we can avoid inflation of at least 10% for the next several years? I don't mean Jas-style unfounded insistence that inflation is impossible, I mean an actual economic case for little or no inflation. It won't do to make the usual case that inflation is impossible because wages have not been rising. I mean a real, forward-looking case for why we will not see inflation of at least 10% p/a.
I'm looking forward to reading it.
Thanks.
wow Neubauten?
havent heard those guys since Kontrol Factory shut down. Thank you CC. very appropriate
I hear the Sands casino is in real trouble. When the casino collapses, or has its creditworthiness revokes and shutters, will my pretty chip buy me muh chitlins n grits?
You know whose dope and whose peddlin' dope. Get some.
"Recession started June 2007."
Sounds about right. When will the U.S. Gov admit it?
1/20/2009
Good night.
City banker charged with murder after his wife is found strangled at their suburban home
Pictured: The banker in handcuffs after being charged with the murder of his strangled wife | Mail Online
Jas Jain(Irritating) writes:
I feel that it is necessary to respond to bigots.
That's easy for you Jas. Go look in the mirror.
You know, you are way overdue on telling the American-born-and-bred dopes not to comment on your ethnicity.