Hotels: rapid deterioration "across the board"
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Sun, 11/16/2008 - 7:30pm (200 comments)
![Syndicate content](/misc/feed.png "Comments for \"Hotels: rapid deterioration "across the board"\""){kind=small}
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 44 members and 216 guests online.
Currently online
- 1 currency now -yogi
- Former Idealist
- sum luk
- Pearl
- curious
- Eric
- Firemane
- traderwalt
- JP
- ResistanceIsFeudal
- creditcriminalslovetarp
- josap
- burnside
- yuan
- Sebastian
- Vic
- Elvis
- Cat Daddy
- Govt. Cheese
- Comrade Kaboom
- gabyjan
- gruntled
- Cobradriver
- Tool of the Fed
- Blue Guy Red State
- volker the viking
- steelhead
- GrandOldTurkey
- friar john
- SPOOL
- scone
- Terry
- Lobbyist Ben Dover
- Haralambos
- Rob Dawg
- picosec
- rander
- jrinma
- joeblo
- Mary
- Cinco-X
- aleister perdurabo
- Lurking Lawyer
- Mike in Long Island
Recent Recommendations
Not to mention the comment section.
Oh, darn.
starwoods is going to be spamming me even more.
The article also mentions the "AIG effect" of companies cancelling events because they "don't want to look like AIG".
That's the healthiest sentence I've read in business culture in years.
We need a new word like hoocoodanode to describe when business models break.
I am still finding hotel rates too high in non-tourist destinations. Road trips have been on hold for myself for a couple years now.
LOL Exit. I feel a rapid degradation of my own morals and IQ after having watching the last 15 minutes of the high class hooker chronicles on CNBC. Between that hard hitting piece of journalism, the polygamy expose on TLC, and "The Girls Next Door" on E, internet porn seems like a waste of time. Oh well, time to go take an Extenze pill and Sham Wow my genitals...
CR - room rates are too high considering their clients 'margins' & personal incomes - I can understand a $100 plus for a nice mid-priced room in an urban area... but rural Iowa? Or Wisconsin? Try $50.
The same can be seen in typical tourist countries. A brick wall right now. Getting rapidly worse week by week.
I have no link.
--
I am still waiting for the day when CR will admit that CRE was at least as overbuilt as RRE. CR doesn't understand the demand for either very well. Not his fault, though. Economists are bad at forecasting and estimating the future demand. They are quite good with the past and so so with the present.
Jas
I just signed up with Hyatt Gold Passport stay count double promotion. They ran this from time to times. But I had never seen them do it in a middle of a Faster Free Night promotion.
The upshot is that I will be Gold Passport Diamond elite while staying at a few Park Hyatt next year. Suite upgrade and free breakfast, here I come.
Jas Jain(Irritating) writes:
I am still waiting for the day when CR will admit that CRE was at least as overbuilt as RRE.
And why on god's green earth do you think that anyone cares what you are waiting for?
What a dope.
My (tech) company always has a sales kickoff at the beginning of each fiscal year in November - typically someplace warm, with plenty of golfing and booze, not necessarily in that order. This year? Sales training was on the web. I've heard Cisco and others are doing the same thing.
-Jaso
....."I will be Gold Passport Diamond elite.......in a middle of a Faster Free Night promotion"???
What the heck does THAT mean? Do you still get clean sheets and a couple towels with a room nowadays?
This year? Sales training was on the web.
Just close your eyes and listen for the waves. That's going to be a popular vacation this year.
man, looks like the dam is ready to burst. EPS collapsing, cities requesting TARP, Paulson changing objectives, countries needing bailouts, US auto makers warning of BK, unemployment rising, Alt-A resets in 09-10, consumers shell shocked and reducing spend at breakneck speed...etc, etc.
i've heard so many bogus armageddon theories over the past 30 yrs and this is the only one that has enough data points going in the wrong direction and it's FUGLY.
i've always scoffed at the bulls that thought the market would continue to skyrocket and they would say "this time it's different". Now so many people are thinking this will be a normal recession and now I'm the one saying "No, this time it's different, it could be be nastier"
the tables have turned
BSR. Focus. Easy brand and promotion names nowadays:
Hyatt Gold Passport stay count double promotion.
Faster Free Night promotion
Gold Passport Diamond elite
I don't want to look like AIG, so I have cut my spending too.
One way to teach the greedy SOBs a lesson is to stop spending money.
Thailand
AFP: Tourist arrivals plummet in Thailand amid credit crunch
Hotels as economic indicators. Good to have a graph by city and star rating of the hotel.
Nationwide map, 3 month time period. Be valuable to see which cities are experiencing severe downturns.
Well, Japan is celebrating its official entry into recession by sending the nikkei up 2%. Way to go.
Hotels, tourism, etc. will be seeing big price slashes soon, kind of like houses. The new corollary to "the best time to buy real estate is when you don't have any money to buy real estate", will be "the best time to travel is when you don't have any money to travel".
Ug. Meant to put the last post in the last thread. I'm almost as dopey as Jas McDope.
Yeah, well if they're willing, they can increase turnover with four hour blocks for the right clientele.
Seriously, in regard to the whole explosion of "lower moral" stories as written about by Anon above - high class hookers, Girl Next Door, etc. - how much could this have been seen as a leading indicator of tougher economic times.
Read an article recently - no link - about the aftermath of the French Revolution when the guillotines were dismantled. There was a significant rise in prostitution and etc. as destitute women were forced into it in order to survive. Also "survivor balls" in which the invited guests all wore red ribbons around their necks in honor of their dead family as they partied the night away.
Would this be a leading or a concurrent indicator?
craig writes:
"i've always scoffed at the bulls that thought the market would continue to skyrocket and they would say "this time it's different". Now so many people are thinking this will be a normal recession and now I'm the one saying "No, this time it's different, it could be be nastier""
And I'm thinking like a contrarian right now. Huge crowds at Costco today. One of my businesses just got VC funding last week. Massive traffic on the streets today in spite of the smoke as the mountains burn. Orders piling up faster then we can issue quotes in another business. I must live in a different world than many of the posters on this board.
The same can be seen in typical tourist countries. A brick wall right now. Getting rapidly worse week by week.
Comrade Peronista
10% drop in nights booked here, tourism is biggest FX earner!
One of my businesses just got VC funding last week.
Congratulations, that is no small feat in this market. And condolences too, because managing the VCs in my biz thru 2000-2003 added much gray hair to my head.
Homedad
Did you REALLY put "guillotine" and "survivor balls" in the same post?
Oh, my.
Concurrent indicator gets my vote. The 'stickiness' of house prices for most of the past year indicates lack of capitulation. Having a survivor ball indicates capitulation has occured.
"Jason writes:
My (tech) company always has a sales kickoff at the beginning of each fiscal year in November - typically someplace warm, with plenty of golfing and booze, not necessarily in that order. This year? Sales training was on the web. I've heard Cisco and others are doing the same thing."
At my public university, wherever possible all offsite tech training for staff has been replaced by webinars. Not that we ever went wild on the expense account, but nobody goes anywhere now, much less stays overnight.
I'll say it again.
Fast crash.
I agree with Dryfly that rooms are overpriced. Definite bubble in hotel price structure. Saw it on my vacation this past summer.
homedad:
I recall reading in the 1990s that young women in Russia viewed hard currency prostitute as a viable career.
How did the phrase "Your momma wears army boots" arise? I think it had something to do with women needing footwear.
Official Chrysler site - Refuel America - $2.99 Gas Guarantee
Chrysler's new Refuel America Program guarantees gas at $2.99 per gallon on select vehicles. No Matter what the price at the pump says, you'll pay $2.99.
Official Chrysler site - Refuel America - $2.99 Gas Guarantee
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Do you recall this Chrysler ad from last summer? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
sm_landlord
Costco: This is as expected. Already less stores. So the stores that are still there will have more people in it. It's a result of other companies going out of business. And number of stores being closed down. Think 1 Walgreen in the area instead of 3.
VC Funding: This just show that VC's don't understand economics.
Massive traffic? People are afraid of losing their job.
Orders: What business is that? Paper cups or guns?
sm_landlord
Need help? I need work.
Maybe CR could put up a job board. So in lieu of a comments section, a real time economic indicator (albeit anecdotal) of where the economy is functioning, and when it emerges from the other side.
SoCal readers:
Got a private tour on Saturday of Irvine Co's new resort hotel in Newport Beach, Pelican Hills, scheduled to open day before Thanksgiving. They are not having any problems booking rooms, starting at $750. Maybe its just the attraction of something new, but no sign of any slowdown. Just one data point.
Topher writes:
I got a call from Hilton yesterday offering me 4 days 3 nights at their Tuscany Orlando resort for $195.75 (taxes included). I have to book within 45 days. Good for 6 months out. I will have to do a 2-hour sales pitch from them. They must have overlooked that I did this 3 years ago but I didnt stay at that resort but that was the one they were trying to sell me. I took it. I paid up front. The man first tried to get me to stay at another resort (one room 2 queen beds) I told him I had to have a two room suite. Ill be ready for a little fun and sun by February. I start my new 5-month lease in April-August in the same oceanfront condo I have been leasing for the majority of the past two years. I also got that price reduced. Life can be good in a recession for people who save.
Topher | 11.16.08 - 11:07 pm | #
Al-Waleed has perhaps the worst portfolio possible, must be down 60-90%. He's going to need a lot of new silent Saudi partner money
Anonymous writes:
"Congratulations, that is no small feat in this market. And condolences too, because managing the VCs in my biz thru 2000-2003 added much gray hair to my head."
Thanks for all of the above. This will be my fifth startup. And I have the ulcers to show for it. Hopefully my heart holds out until I can exit this one. But I'm getting better at it, and I still have hair, although it is graying rapidly.
Las Vegas lost population. The evaporation of construction jobs being cited as the proximate cause.
Fast crash.
Senorito On-Topico
This will be the topic of many a post mortem doctorals. The speed of actionable information has the potential to overrun any economic circuit breakers.
Mebbe I could make that a bar snack item, survivor balls, like boiled eggs and beef jerky. Things are slow, just booze lately.
VC Funding: This just show that VC's don't understand economics.
Well, that's a given. But the reason it's an amazing feat is that VCs have an astounding herd instinct. If the herd is funding stupid ideas, then go out and fund stupid ideas. If the herd has gone turtle and is funding nothing, then don't fund anything.
Too bad Tanta doesn't read comments, she'd bust me a new one for mixing "turtle" and "herd" metaphors.
This economic enviroment reminds me of the panic after 9/11. Pure extrapilation of a worst case senario.
Panics have a way of 'working themselves out' after the more astute companies see opportunities for market share and adjust for renewed growth.
If the phyche can be tickled just a bit, it will be over in a few quarters.
Confidence and access to milliard piles of fiat digits will make the greedy dogs of business salivate once more!
sm_landlord:
great for you, there will be big winners in this chaos, sounds like you're among them. wish you the best of success.
Lefty, you could sell folks the right to add food color to them.
Course it'd end up brown anyways, but a few extra coppers never hurt.
Map of their properties. Nationwide.
LaSalle Hotel Properties
Obama's going to do whatever it takes to rescue his re-election, er, the economy...
What are the chances he is a one termer?
Well for those who must travel, the good news is that one does not have to pay posted rates if you are willing to negotiate at the desk. You might be surprised to see how much flexibility that many desk clerks have in coming to new terms.
Rob Dawg writes:
Las Vegas lost population. The evaporation of construction jobs being cited as the proximate cause.
Not legal population, but population none the less.
And condolences too, because managing the VCs in my biz thru 2000-2003 added much gray hair to my head.
A-bloody-men to that.
Ross writes:
This economic enviroment reminds me of the panic after 9/11. Pure extrapilation of a worst case senario
.....the difference is 911 was temperary , but this crisis will be continued next 2 years at least....-|-;;
sm_landlord: What general area of biz? You have a website yet?
Nice job by the Japanese PPT (Nikkei up) and U.S. PPT (futures in the green, now):
Quote.com U.S. Markets - Futures Quotes and Charts - Chart for ES Z8
Hotel occupancy down --> Spitzer effect?
.
Yeah, come February I'm going to Jamaica. Or maybe the Bahamas. Somewhere warm in the Caribbean. By then they'll all be screaming for business, deals galore.
Cash is king.
Savers of the world unite.
.
Andy NZ. How's the new PM. Is he in the hard money camp? Or a neo-con type?
sm - check your preferred stock liquidation preference, if applicable, and ask yourself how you will make out in the event you are purchased by another firm. With the IPO window closed for the foreseeable future, that is the only VC exit point on the table. In 18 to 30 months. Hope you drove a hard bargain.
One positive comment about the hotel industry though, more and more hotels allow pets in the room. Got to say that's a real improvement, many people like to travel with their dogs and I am one of them.
Maybe the banks should get into the 'hotel' business. Furnish some of their REO properties and rent em out at $150 per night and no charge at all if the guest can find a buyer.
Denny's had a big golf function at our golf club last week. Guess it doesn't have to worry about looking like AIG
.
We were at the Four Seasons George V in Paris in October. With few rooms under $1000/night - the place was sold out during our stay. OTOH - I recall that 2001-02 were good years to get good deals in terms of travel. Perhaps 2009 will be the same.
Dryfly - Where are these $50 hotel rooms - and what are they? Are they in places anyone goes to if they don't have to
? We were in Gainesville FL at a Hilton last weekend - and a Hampton Inn Suites in Brighton MI this summer - and the rooms were about $120-130 on AARP rates. Roby
And condolences too, because managing the VCs in my biz thru 2000-2003 added much gray hair to my head.
A-bloody-men to that.
Anoddamoose | 11.16.08 - 11:15 pm | #
Through the intertubes, I sense my scars are not unique.
"Just close your eyes and listen for the waves."
Welcome to staycation Pt.II. In Pt.I there was no gas, in PT.II there is no job.
@Comrad Peronista: We have probably 25 25 Walgreens nearby. Some will fail, but I expect Rite-Aid to fail first.
The VCs have a market that they control for the product. The VC owns the customer. Orders? Disaster recovery services.
@Exit: What do you do?
@Craig: Thanks
@Anonymous: Can't announce yet, but it's digital entertainment. No website before it's time.
@Annodymous: Still negotiating the exit, but it's structured so I can walk away ahead at any time.
Is anyone still here?
Let's see, what's different now than after 911:
Bear Stearns
WAMU
Countrywide
Wachovia
Downey Spending and Loan
Merril Lynch
Circuit City
Mervyns
Linen'n Things
Bombay Company
Ann Taylor
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
General Motors
Ford
Chrysler
A whole hellava lota hedge funds and the worst of all...
Mother's Cookies- I'm going to miss animal cookies, I really liked the pink ones.
Boeing is drastically cutting internal biz conference travel -- simply because of revenue downturns. There are going to be some great travel bargains next year.
"The speed of actionable information has the potential to overrun any economic circuit breakers."
Sounds right to me. Isn't there a W. C. Fields movie in which he yells 'Give that wheel to me" and the driver rips the wheel off the steering column and hands it to him?
I puked out some of those pink cookies the day I had my first bar mitzvah
15 reasons the US economy will get worse: Link Here
Las Vegas lost population. The evaporation of construction jobs being cited as the proximate cause.
Not legal population, but population none the less. - RaT
"They've" been leaving for 18 months. Remittances to Mexico declines are starting to collapse their rural economies which have become dependent upon cash sent home. Next up the social unrest as young men return to no prospects.
But enough of that. Las Vegas has the same model even if they don't understand it yet. SoCal isn't pumping gambling/entertainment or retirement or investment money like it used to. If Cali budget problems are leveraged for more in state gambling expect even worse.
........How much they can save restricting biz. travel?....more effective way is CUTTING CEO SALARY....ㅡ,.ㅡ;;;
To everyone who doesn't "see it" yet.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Not meant to be offputting, just striking a point with brutal clarity.
Actually, it's pretty cool to be wearing The Jas Jain Thanksgiving Day Mask and you born and bred dopes are too stupid to not try it on!
Dryfly - Where are these $50 hotel rooms - and what are they? Are they in places anyone goes to if they don't have to
? We were in Gainesville FL at a Hilton last weekend - and a Hampton Inn Suites in Brighton MI this summer - and the rooms were about $120-130 on AARP rates. Robyn
Robyn | 11.16.08 - 11:19 pm | #
Robyn I could have got you a brand new 5 bedroom house with pool and spa for $500.00 for a week $50.00 extra for heating the pool & spa just south of Gainesville, FL. Deals are all over the place.
far worse than this is priced in.
i just wish we could send all the baby boomers to oklahoma and make a clean break with their legacy.
i work for a fortune 300 and every department holiday party has been cancelled this year. all travel and entertainment expenses must be preapproved by senior management. others are doing the same. the snowball is ganing mass and speed as it rolls over what remains of the credit bubble.
Jas Jain writes:
I puked out some of those pink cookies the day I had my first bar mitzvah
Can you have more than one bar mitzvah?
OT, but you gotta love it.
Thanks a million Phil! Repupblican, repugnant and unrepentant to the end.
THE RECKONING; A Deregulator Looks Back, Unswayed - NY Times
As they say, Denial : it's not just a river in Egypt.
Can you have more than one bar mitzvah?
Hell, I'll bet Jas had more than one bris.
retailers haven't yet adjusted to the new reality and its going to hit them square in the face as conditions worse far quicker than even they've put into their doomsday forecasts. 2009 is going to be a bloodbath for them and 2010 probably only slightly better. if you are in the market for spending money be it travel, a big ticket item, etc. just wait another 6-9 months if you can i think you'll be paying far less than today's asking prices.
Hell, I'll bet Jas had more than one bris
Funny.
"What are the chances he is a one termer?"
Probably not as great as the odds that you're a douchebag.
sm_landlord-
One of the dopes. Underwriting and mortgages in socal since 1991 - obviously that model is gone. Before I get annhilated for my profession, my mea culpa is that I lost my referring realtor clientele because I refused to go NINJA on their clients, and mostly just scared them off with actual numbers.
Realtors didn't appreciate the 3x income multiplier and 30 year fixed rates that I recommended.
Way OT - my favorite was when an agent brought in a homeless person who happened to have abut $23k saved up "to buy a house", who worked as a housecleaner for $2k a month. She was looking at a $350k bungalow in the LBC. I politely declined to take the app. Agent took it to CFC, who, naturally, did the deal.
Republicans are TRAITORS writes:
Jas Jain writes:
I puked out some of those pink cookies the day I had my first bar mitzvah
Can you have more than one bar mitzvah?
Do not feed the trolls pink cookies.
Like that reversal on the Asian markets as well as our futures in the last two hours. Seems that whatever the news could be tomorrow it will go up no matter.
Love it....
Ciao
MS
SM Landlord
from last thread
The inflation/deflation question is the big question
Synoptically and in abbreviated form, here is the possibility of a scenario with massive fiscal stimulus and little or no inflation: massive wealth destruction (asset deflation) keeps abreast with or outpaces inflationary forces (deficit spending to keep GDP up).
We've seen this before: Great Depression. Japan since 1990. Interest rates stayed low for a long duration . . . really long duration.
I'm not saying it will happen, just that it can happen, and that there are some reasons to think it might well happen. I think it will happen, but I'm not calling any shots.
Richard Koo of Nimura presents a good case that this is what is unfolding. He was just written up in the Toronto Globe and Mail, and when I posted the link yesterday Evil Henry P (I think it was Evil henry) posted a link to a Koo presentation at the Center for Stragtegic and International Studies - great charts.
I'm betting that Rite-Aid goes down. Their merchandising has always annoyed me since they re-arranged their stores about 5 years ago. But I have to be careful about my personal disregard for their store layouts. Just because I hate them and won't shop there doesn't mean that no one else will.
Does anyone else have an opinion on Rite-Aid?
"The only cure for a bubble is to prevent it from happening."
Kurt Richebacher
R.I.P.
This year? Sales training was on the web.
Long Cisco, short Marriott?
Static graphs of web traffic for three major retailers, so I can compare them to post-Thanksgiving sales and make a guessesimate of their final Christmas sales.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=pre_christmas_traffic_graphs
You can do the same trick with the hotel chains, too. Marriott shows more of a deterioration than Hilton, which is interesting.
I've used this same methodology on opening week returns for movies and it works fairly well.
CR used to have a picture of a trail going off into the woods on the top of this site. I have the info somewhere. I would like to go there one day. I wonder what kind of deals they have now?
Go to priceline and make an offer!
I just booked a room in vegas for 3 dollars and a bag of dorito's!
Read the above link by Geof. Phil blames 'predatory borrowers' for the present credit crises!
Like that reversal on the Asian markets as well as our futures in the last two hours. Seems that whatever the news could be tomorrow it will go up no matter.
.....someone manipulate futures with small volume.....hedge fund sells in Asian market .....after asian market close , the futures slide again.....
Sorry, didn't register that I put "survivor balls" in with "guillotines".
Just an interesting, late night article.
topher:
Anything you recommend for the Orlando area circa 6/09? Website to hit? If I can find a screaming price, we'll take it, otherwise we're home.
Thanks
OT-Interesting analysis of liquidity, not a lot of numbers, but an interesting conceptual framework.
Understanding liquidity risk and its role in the crisis | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
"Robyn I could have got you a brand new 5 bedroom house with pool and spa for $500.00 for a week $50.00 extra for heating the pool & spa just south of Gainesville, FL. Deals are all over the place."
That would be a neat VC idea. Converting unaffordable housing to Bed and Breakfasts in touristy areas. Veags Casino hotels are toast.
If the high end retailers suffer more than the Walmart's and Costco's and the Steakhouses more than McDonald's
then will the same happen to the hotel
chains?
Marriot out, Motel Six Inn.
sm_landlord(Unrated) writes:
I'm betting that Rite-Aid goes down.
They bought the drugstore chain near me a few years ago; redesigned it; and hate going in there.
I now drive two towns over to shop at Walgreens or Longs.
MadMax Scenario anecdote #2274.3
We drove up the coast to escape the ash this afternoon. Stopped at our favorite place, Neptune's Net, which had always been a mixture of sufers/bikers/malibuneans/tourists.
There is almost always a huge mass of bikes out front on weekends, beer and engines, but today was different. All the bikers and a few startled tourists were watching the highway as two or three brain damaged individuals rode on one wheel back and forth in front of the crowd. Once in a while they'd drive out into the middle of a lane and begin doing doughnuts in front of oncoming traffic. Police were called, but we were there for a good hour and no response.
The place is always packed on saturday and sunday nights. Tonight... not even a line at the cash registers. Plenty of seating available.
This will be the topic of many a post mortem doctorals. The speed of actionable information has the potential to overrun any economic circuit breakers.
Rob Dawg | 11.16.08 - 11:10 pm | #
My brother and I were talking about this very issue tonight. There seems to be a lot of talk of a massive rally right around the corner. But how likely is it that a persistent stream of positive economic data will keep a rally afloat? It seems to me that this is why we've had these ridiculous one-day wonder rallies. The next day rolls around and the bad news brings everybody back to their senses.
Looks like sweet oblivion to me, not that that's bad of course:
YouTube -
Well, sometimes it sounds good.
CC
@ SM Landlord
Again on the inflation/deflation issue:
This CR post on Hotels seems to fit a cascade pattern that is becoming familiar: serial collapsing business and industries, serial collapsing govt budgets.
The fear about GM impoding is mainly about the chain of suppliers and associated firms that go down along with it, and those suppliers supply other auto companies, too.
All the jokes about subprime being "contained" might turn out to be pitiful blips compared to the lack of containment we might start to see.
If this cascades so rapidly and widely, govt spending just won't be able to keep up.
I think it is possible that the greatest danger of hyperinflation/currency collapse might be in the scenario in which govt spending cannot do what it did in Japan post 1990: i.e., govt spends, but can't sustain GDP at a near flat level. At that point all faith in the system collapses.
I buy the Koo/Krugman/Friedman argument. Plus I'm thinking of shifting from being an atheist to an agnostic. I am scared.
The next day rolls around and the bad news brings everybody back to their senses.
I have been informed no fewer than 3 times in the past week that it is an absolute bottom in the markets. Buy buy buy.
If such insanity occurs, I'll short the hell outta it.
retailers haven't yet adjusted to the new reality and its going to hit them square in the face as conditions worse far quicker than even they've put into their doomsday forecasts
One of my original goals in 1996 was to create a "storm warning" system based on the rates of relative change in the cost & price of information which would flag when the DotCom crash was starting.
I got sidetracked for various reasons and I never revisited the idea. However, I'm fairly sure that what 2007 is a form of secondary top to the original Information Age bubble of 2001. I'm kinda wishing I had worked out the implementation so I could compare the relative "cost/price of information" for both tops.
What should really cave things in is a rising cost of information. Although I know the real estate bubble gets a lot of credit, a major component of the cost of information, labor, was flat-lined from 2001 to 2007 through large-sclae outsourcing (and other things). I think that's finished now.
@Exit: please drop a note on my blog, at some point I hope to need honest salespeople.
@Joe Schmoe: I saw Koos' piece. I don't know what to believe. I just see the most likely way out (because it's so obvious and traditional and easy) as inflation. I just can't convince myself that any other option will be taken. Maybe that's because I've seen it before, maybe that's because the bond nazis seem to have lost power, maybe that's because I missed something important. I just don't know. It seems to be easy to make arguments both ways, but experience tells me that government prefers inflation as the easy way out of difficult situations.
Anony - short to the nth, no one's looking at bonds.
Terrifying.
CC
Andy NZ. How's the new PM. Is he in the hard money camp? Or a neo-con type?
Comrade Peronista
He has just announced Cabinet, has a hard right coalition partner! Interesting times.
He is a pragmatic ex FX trader and Merrill Lynch global head of FX.
John Key - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The smiling assassin...
......look at Nikkei chart....text book case of reverse head-and-shoulder pattern......
"Does anyone else have an opinion on Rite-Aid?
sm_landlord | 11.16.08 - 11:36 pm | # "
We have one; in the evening, it's not hard to be the only customer in the store. A mile away, there's a Long's Drugs that's busy 24/7, literally.
Anything you recommend for the Orlando area circa 6/09? Website to hit? If I can find a screaming price, we'll take it, otherwise we're home.
Thanks
homedad43 | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 11:40 pm | #
Vacation Rentals and Homes by Owners and Managers - 1st Choice Vacation Rentals
Ross, are you the new ipodius of the comment section?
I remember ipodius dismissing many here as "chicken littles". That was back when he and others scoffed at the notion that Fannie/Feddie might fail.
Extrapolating current trends isn't the only way to get to a historic bad outcome. You merely have to study the past, and do an honest analysis of what drove the world economy the past couple decades. And look at how such historic credit bubbles have ended previously.
So the kiwi guy shorts his PM?
Interesting.
CC
"They bought the drugstore chain near me a few years ago; redesigned it; and hate going in there.
I now drive two towns over to shop at Walgreens or Longs."
Long's is soon to be CVS. Can't say I like CVS layout as much as WG. But I have them long via their buyout of CMX as part of my health care/baby boom retirement trade.
SM LAndlord
I get what you are saying.
Govts do prefer inflation. For what it is worth, Koo and Krugman agree: Govt's prefer inflation, but K & K argue that in this kind of situation the govt can't get what it wants.
What the govt gets is a liquidity trap. Monetary policy fails to create inflation, and massive fiscal injections also fail to create inflation.
The US after 1929 and Japan after 1990 do seem to be illustrative cases.
Will that happen again now? Let's ask Conjure. I think MP tends to agree with you.
Topher:
Thanks. Had looked at multiple sites, but who's the most reputable, best?
thanks
reverse head and shoulder pattern? does that mean the dandruff is getting worse, not better?
So the kiwi guy shorts his PM?
Interesting.
CC
Comrade Counterpointer
Its not the PM, its the coalition partners that will make or break him. He has been very careful and centrist. And is off to Peru for APEC later this week, he seems to be a quick study.
UB,
Trashed up North? Can you confirm the rapid deterioration of your hotel?
Been trying to book a good room in Maui for January, and nothing decent below $200/night.
This industry has been too slow to react: I've been up and down the state of California and there's been no price drops, but plenty of 75% empty hotels. Nothing stranger than pulling up to the Del Mar Hilton at 9PM to an empty parking lot and only one room with a light on.
This industry is doing a face-plant.
Actually the nikkei looks like it always does after a sake' break. THe euphoria of lunch time binge drinking is wearing off.
BTW I am well aware of how the futures are played.....
Closes flat IMO
MS
Joe Shmoe, that is my worry as well.
I remember watching 9/11 on TV. It was horrible to see the skyscrapers on fire but, one thought that the NYFD
would get up there and save the people
standing in the windows.
Then the towers began their awful cascade in upon themselves and what was a manageable disaster became something else entirely.
We seem to be entering a similiar economic calamity. A mortgage/housing fire spreading out of control and starting a pancaking of sectors and nations around the world. You would have hoped the Central Bankers would have raced up to the fire and saved the situation but they seem to be falling victims of it themselves. It is very scary.
sm_landlord
Is Randominium your blog? No apparent way to contact you there...
You do songs! Not much time these days, trying to keep up with the CR posts and comments...
well the casino biz is toast...along with their hotels. Went to S. Lake Tahoe this weekend. I thought someone dropped a neutron bomb. Dead. Granted, the snow sucked, but that never really seems to matter. You never see the casinos so empty. Montbleu had $54 rooms on a Friday, and threw in the upgrade to everyone I guess. I could tell few were there because only a couple of newspapers were laying around in the early am saturay when I grabbed mine.
Kona: I suspected that you thought I had a hotel (Uncle Billy's is I think all 50 of the first google results). Can neither confirm or deny the deterioration of that Uncle Billy's hotel.
I can however confirm that my entire family saw two attack helicopters hovering over 1st point in Malibu, and yes I can confirm that wagner thundered through my mottled brain upon witnessing this.
9/11 did not cause the 2001 crash.
The Nasdaq peaked in March/April of 2001 and the crash was well undeway when the jets the WTC.
If you read through Bin Laden's releases that time, I think it's fairly clear that he's well read in economics, history and I suspect the intent of 9/11 was not to bring down the towers but to accentuate the then-ongoing crash.
homedad43 writes:
Topher:
Thanks. Had looked at multiple sites, but who's the most reputable, best?
thanks
homedad43 | Homepage | 11.16.08 - 11:57 pm | #
I have sources that I cant post openly. I only deal with the best. You need good credit. Also you need to do your homework the deals are out there for sure. That one I listed is good last I checked.
There are going to be some great travel bargains next year.
JP | 11.16.08 - 11:22 pm | #
Sure, until the hotels (et al) start cutting staff...
which adds to the unemployment numbers...
which contributes to the feedback loop.
Perhaps the Federal Reserve needs to fireup a vacation stimulus package, thereby guaranteeing the hospitality industry a minimum revenue flow.
Someday this recessions gonna end.
Went to S. Lake Tahoe this weekend. I thought someone dropped a neutron bomb. Dead.
The Mont has been dead for a while, but the whole place has been hit by the Indian Casino craze. The Bay Area gamblers don't want to spend that extra hour in a bus.
Best thing that ever happened to the place IMHO.
I would have thought Laurie Anderson:
"Here come the planes.
They're American planes."
sm_landlord:
government prefers inflation as the easy way out of difficult situations.
I agree that inflation is their preferred outcome, but I haven't worked out the mechanism, since we are on a bank credit system, not a money system. The current financial deleveraging seems to be destroying credit based wealth faster than the Fed's ability to create new credit. Hence, I am in the near term deflation camp. Longer term, when the Fed's credit creation spree gets traction, I think that we will be amazed at the degree and rapidity with which inflation takes off.
One thing everyone, who looks at economics and financial history for clues as to what might be coming, underestimates (myself included) is the impact new information technologies to speed up reaction times to and spread of economic events. Our feedback and feed forward loops have gotten much faster.
UB,
Probably wise to be away from the danger your running from, but as I suspected, danger is always nearby.
andy in nz - who's he quick studying with?
My dollar trade depends on this. Not entirely, but it's relevant.
Not just the foreign ministry, surely to god.
CC
I suppose I should also make a comment about the 1873/1893 crashes. The primary economic driver during this period was the railroads. Their construction, the steel mills to build them, the coal mines to power them, and in return they served as a centralized infrastructure which destroyed local commodity markets by forcing greater levels of competition.
If you assume that Intel/Cisco/Microsoft are the railrods of our era, then they've been engaged in destroying local information monopolies in a similar fashion.
The upshot is that how the railroads changed is how the general economy change, up until the great decoupling in the 1890s.
Draw respective parallels for our time at your own peril. Although the deltas in growth of today's Information infrastructure are not directly related to GDP, I suspect they are a pretty good predictor of small scale changes that have fairly large ripple effects.
@Exit:
Yes, that's my blog, such as it is. The only reason I set it up was so that I wouldn't lose the parody lyrics that I wrote over the last few years while watching this whole mess melt down. You can leave a message there or email sm_landlord at nmrk period com
NorkaWest writes:
starwoods is going to be spamming me even more.
Was thinking the same thing. For the last month my inbox is getting hammered with every 'special offer' imaginable. used to be once a month or so. Now it's almost daily. Same with the Vegas properties.
I think Unit was using 9/11 as a metaphor to express his sense of the current economic crisis, 2008. He wasn't making a causal argument about 9/11 causing an economic crash in 2001.
The point is that the usual rescue tools seem not to be working. In the 9/11 case, nothing could people out of the towers in the end. There was just the NYFD and nothing else, and no body could do anything but watch in horror when the towers collapsed.
In the case of the current economic crisis it might be a little different. The Koo/Krugman argument is that monetary policy is ineffectual under these conditions. But that's not the only possible tool. They don't argue that massive fiscal stimulus will cure the problem, just that it will enable the society and polity to live on and avoid the most devastating consequences (see Japan).
"Been trying to book a good room in Maui for January, and nothing decent below $200/night."
Try renting a time-share. Much better price, better quality rooms and possibly resorts. $100/night will get you a great place.
One thing everyone, who looks at economics and financial history for clues as to what might be coming, underestimates (myself included) is the impact new information technologies to speed up reaction times to and spread of economic events
I believed this for a time, too. But I've concluded that it's the speed of human assimilation and decision making that is the real key.
Compare the 1929 crash to the Nikkei or Nasdaq or current crash. The relative changes in time frame aren't anywhere near the scale that information transmission has changed.
I actually have fairly well-developed thoughts on this back by empirical evidence. People were already saturated with information before the Internet came along and I can show strong circumstantial evidence of it.
It's the speed of human assimilation that's the issue and that's been constant for a long time.
Now I'm off to play pool
Good day, Sir!
And you, Dawg. What the hell are those clowns at CaseyHaterz sayin' 'bout me? I don't care enough to re-create a login but I'm slightly curious why they wanted an updated photo of me.
You know... considering the big surge in gun sales and all.
Unit 472: We seem to be entering a similiar economic calamity. A mortgage/housing fire spreading out of control and starting a pancaking of sectors and nations around the world. You would have hoped the Central Bankers would have raced up to the fire and saved the situation but they seem to be falling victims of it themselves. It is very scary.
Regrettably, that has the ring of truth to it, at least to my somewhat tone-deaf ear. Capital has to be lent to those in need, and those neediest (incl USA) are going to have to pay through the nose for it. That, in turn, puts a very heavy anchor on an already sinking economy. USA is the California of the world at the moment, and will receive similar short shrift when push comes to shove. Money knows no borders, and need not play within ours.
Can we just print our way out of it? I don't think so. Look at how much debt service already chews up of our GDP. We start printing, Treasury yields start rising, and we start caving (on the rest of the budget, which kills the economy) as debt service rapidly approaches its asymptotic limit. Had we a large surplus, or some savings, going into this, the outcome might be better. However, that is not the case. I am not optimistic, although I hope to make some money on the market remaining irrational longer than those betting against it can remain solvent. What that money is ultimately worth, dunno. But it does buy rainy day insurance.
@Uncle Billy, Polluted
Thanks for the Excel tip. Solved the problem and ended a lot of frustration.
ight all, must run . . .
Now is a Great time to...
Buy yourself a domain name, park it at Google for free, and set-up a number of email boxes to catch all the spam.
I have an account called "spam-eater". When a merchant demand my email address, its great to give them that account. You can almost hear them choke at them write it down.
Broward - you're entirely right, check out the Baltic Dry Index, ain't nothing being shipped.
That kiwi guy got me searching. Y'know there's a prediction years back about the G20?
YouTube - Tall Dwarfs: Nothing's Going to Happen
CC
mp: ha! glad to have helped. Nice to be able to do something, anything helpful these days.
Let's re-do that last sentence.
When a merchant demands my email address, its great to give them that account. You can almost hear them choke as they write it down.
homedad43
Tuscany Orlando resort 4 days 3 nights for $195.75 (taxes included). Book within 45 days. Good for 6 months out.
Florida Villas | Hilton Grand Vacations Club on International Drive | Orlando Vacations
From the WSJ$....it just gets more painfully hilarious every day...
Auto-Parts Makers Push for Aid
Suppliers Seek Piece of Rescue Fund as Democrats Plan Tough Conditions for Detroit
Democratic lawmakers Monday plan to unveil a bill that would give the Big Three auto makers access to the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program set up in October to help ailing banks and other financial firms. As written, the legislation wouldn't include auto-parts makers.
Parts makers are seeking to change that in a letter signed by nearly 100 companies and being sent to the House and Senate on Monday. In the letter, the Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association, a trade group, will ask that its members get equal access to TARP funding sought by the car makers.
Does anyone else have an opinion on Rite-Aid?
sm_landlord | 11.16.08 - 11:36 pm | #
SM, with you on Rite-Aid. Overloaded with debt from Brooks acquisition. Risk reward on equity doesn't make sense (although some of the bonds are interesting). Ultimately, they will get taken out by CVS and Walgreens - we will have 2 big drug trains.
Congrats on the VC funding.
Oops. Link for that WSJ$ article:
Auto-Parts Makers Push for Aid - WSJ.com
Pavel Chichikov writes:
Sounds right to me. Isn't there a W. C. Fields movie in which he yells 'Give that wheel to me" and the driver rips the wheel off the steering column and hands it to him?
A classic. Bank Dick, perhaps. The other quote that stuck with me form that one..."the resale value will be nil"
Broward Horne writes:
I suppose I should also make a comment about the 1873/1893 crashes. The primary economic driver during this period was the railroads. Their construction, the steel mills to build them, the coal mines to power them, and in return they served as a centralized infrastructure which destroyed local commodity markets by forcing greater levels of competition.
The upshot is that how the railroads changed is how the general economy change, up until the great decoupling in the 1890s.
That is a fascinating viewpoint, but I can't quite puzzle out what it means.
What was the great decoupling of the 1890s? What decoupled? I'm aware of the depression, but not the decoupling.
Thanks
You guys didnt get your TARP yet?
I applied and got a great deal!
LOL at auto parts makers. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.
Do Not Seek The Treasure:
YouTube - Oh, Brother Where Art Thou?
Topher writes:
You guys didnt get your TARP yet?
.....plan to apply after 20th jan.....better condition I expect....^^:
Futures Prices seem to be a joke recently. More bad news well be seeing the orange bar on CNBC.
DOW 20,000
Jay D, damn I should have waited!
Ok, let's try guitars in the face of chaos, since nothing else holds:
YouTube - Bailter Space - X
CC
NorkaWest writes:
When a merchant demands my email address, its great to give them that account. You can almost hear them choke as they write it down.
Thanks...good idea. Used to travel quite a bit for work and hooked into all the programs. Used my legit email for confirmations etc. Bit mistake in hindsight.
As for the whole hotel vacancy thing. We used to spend months on site for projects. Now it's down to a few weeks face time and the rest is done remotely.
The US auto makers have an infomercial on YouTube:
YouTube - The U.S. Auto Industry and the Ripple Effect
Not only is the music dreadful, but the message is one of despair, not hope. I am less in favor of bailing them out now than before I saw the video. Another mismanagement job out of the Big 3 automakers. Toss management, and MAYBE we can talk about a bailout. Current management has been and is pretty much CLUELESS, in my opinion, and this video is just more evidence of that. Fear tactics, and I've had a belly full of those.
Dissenting thoughts?
jus me:
I think that what he was saying is that new technologies disrupt existing business processes and models and drive growth, but that within a generation the new technologies become the old technologies and growth stalls. Unfortunately, the financial systems have become geared to the accelerating growth, so when the rate of change in growth flips from positive to negative, the financial system crashes.
Carlotta Perez has written interesting papers on the impact of technological change on the functioning of the economy over time.
NorkaWest writes: I agree that inflation is their preferred outcome, but I haven't worked out the mechanism, since we are on a bank credit system, not a money system.
The FED and Treasury will take over every Credit Card Company in the USA. They will then introduce 0% interest rate on all credit cards and 365 payment relief period. That will get consumer spending moving. Krugman and Friedman will love it. Wall Street too. For 2 weeks.
My money is on the 11 year old kid:
YouTube - (Pink Floyd) Good Bye Blue Sky - Sungha Jung
Wow, that dude got me searching, check this:
YouTube - Bailter Space - Splat
But wait, there's more!!
CC
Are you an idiot to keep paying your mortgage?
Are you an idiot to keep paying your mortgage?
Anoddamoose writes:
"The US auto makers have an infomercial on YouTube:..."
Wow that pushes every button they have.
What they fail to mention is that there are plenty of other companies making cars in America. Plenty of other factories that are more efficient than the Detroit factories. We won't be buying tanks from Japan if we need them. We'll be buying them from auto plants in the South that can make them more efficiently than the plants in Detroit.
Pure BS, IMHO. But well tuned BS.
Oh man. Can't wait till you all go bankrupt you crazy paranoiid shorts. Oh.. Sorry. You ain't even shorts. You sitting in a basement with your gold on one side and guns on the other waiting for the apocalypse.
Within 3 months the USG will stabilize the housing market through a plan similar to that proposed by Bair, only significantly more lenient to the debtors due to the incoming socialist administration.
The side effect of this plan should be a significant increase in available disposable income on the part of individuals.
Deflation will be dealt with by the Fed printing money and using it to buy USG debt in huge quantities.
The federal government will provide bailouts to all state and local authorities.
All these steps are inflationary and will counteract the current deflationary atmosphere. Before long (3-6 months) people will be worried by excessive inflation. Those of you in fixed income will take a bath big-time.
Some businesses with too much debt will fail over the next 6 months and that is normal and healthy. The ones that survive will be primed to take off when the recovery occurs.
Recovery + Inflation + Optimism returning = MAJOR RECOVERY IN STOCKS.
You are messing with a Fed Chairman who spent decades figuring out the best ways to cause inflation and prevent inflation. Give the man a little credit.
Konookie: he's amazing. A cross between funtwo and mozart. Seems like he even enjoys the music a little.
eh.. that is cause inflation and prevent deflation.
OMFG, it gets better, at least for the geetar crowd:
YouTube - Bailter Space - Splat
Currently cradling Jazzmaster and ignoring the long bond invert...
CC
CT: I still think that we will be whipped sawed by deflation, then inflation.
Also, what makes you think that BB will have a long tenure at the Fed? Someone has to take the fall for the current mess. HP will be gone in two months, which will leave one fallguy standing.
Why@ ZIRP,
We're hanging at Loew's these days -- very dog-friendly. Join the club and they start throwing upgrades & extras at you at the drop of a hat.
New pig posted.
Just more unpatriotic negativity from liberals who question the party, and hate freedom.
UB,
Yah, I'll keep him on the radar.
Hopefully your having a fine time in your new digs.
I went back and looked at your Excel post, which reminded me that I need to get back into that stuff. I've been looking at a local community program for a guru, as books just don't cut it.
CT Did you accompany le petomaine when he performed the star spangled banner?
Funny comment here from a blog:
"My son had difficulty getting the job he wanted until someone taught him how to lie in his applications and interviews ie not answer truthfully but simply give them what they wanted to see and hear - its a farce.
Basically the interview secret is to adopt and adapt Keynes approach to investment via the beauty contest analogy."
From: Why the hell are share prices going up and down? FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Why the hell are share prices going up and down?
Norka, Deflation, then inflation. We agree. I think in 6 months we are all worried about inflation again. Most people here think we are staying in deflationary conditions for years.
Not sure what BB would be blamed for exactly. Not bailing out Lehman? He can't actually be forced out of his position...
This is what we just ordered for our own little metal-head:
Ibanez S5470 Electric Guitar and more Solid Body Electric Guitars at GuitarCenter.com.
Just got a report card with all A's except p.e. (she's working on that), and it's her birthday present for the next two years.
Ok, got nothin better to do? Try this:
YouTube - Johnny Cash - The Mercy Seat
Nation bleeding, am cryin.
CC
Well, and wow!
P.E should be a no-brainer! Youth is wasted on the young!
I was looking to see examples of someone playing this, but no luck yet; guess you'll have to start up-loading
I had never heard this by J. Cash, I'm not a huge fan, but I think he did some great stuff; it was nice to see this very late stage effort:
YouTube - Johnny Cash Hurt
Whoa CC, Johnny Cash singing Charles Bukowsky? You're showing me worlds I never knew existed.
Let me ask a hopefully simple question:
If one agrees we are now in a deflationary period, why would we enter an inflationary period just because Bernanke prints?
Doesn't any new money need to be lent in order to create inflation? If so, won't net lending be less than it was a year ago, because of tightening lending standards?
What pressures can the Fed/Treasury exert to force money out into the public's hands, if the banks won't (quite rightly) lend?
Or do those who assume inflation will soon follow deflation also assume the mechanism is a massive government stimulus?
Uncle Billy - it;s bin goin on for a while:
YouTube - Johnny Cash - The Mercy Seat
CC - still getting used to it.
Greetings from Hawaii. Tourist arrivals are down 20% yoy. Hotel vacancy rates in Oahu are approaching 40%. The wife of a friend who works in a hotel is down to 2 days a week. Most of the locals are hoping for a military buildup to pick up the slack. I think they are in for a rude awakening. We are already seeing budget cuts in the Navy, and I think we'll be parking ships within the next 2 years.
Stew,
UB will respond to that after another glass of wine, however, the concept of inflation and the yield curve is somewhat of interest, because if money has less value in deflation, then inflationary impacts would be decreased,so one should think in terms of macro elasticity and thus as our ballon deflates, it may need less air to re-fill it, yah?
stewpdx,
Lets say the Fed prints a trillion dollars. Then lets say they create a program to buy and forgive 1 trillion dollars worth of random securitized credit card and mortgage debt. Lets say the Fed promises to repeat this process for the next 20 years, occasionally varying what kind of debt it buys. Every year the Fed will buy up 1 trillion dollars of outstanding debt. Wanna bet what happens to lending and inflation?
Voices are slightly louder:
YouTube - Radiohead - All I Need (Scotch Mist Version)
Hey UB,
I think this guy is a poster icon for that brand;
Steve Lukather Emotive Soloing
YouTube - Steve Lukather Emotive Soloing
Kona - no let's cool it down.
Cos it ain't necessarily so:
YouTube -
CC
Or, instead we could stand up:
YouTube - Johnny Cash - As Long As the Grass Shall Grow
Rocknroll next...
CC
Or, could get geetary...
YouTube - Gordons - Adults and Children
CC
I'm betting that Rite-Aid goes down.
Store's have ambiance that is bound to affect sales. However, my tastes and perception of that ambiance don't necessarily reflect mass perceptions. I'm not an artist or an interior decorator, so I don't have the vocabulary to articulate why I don't like Rite-Aid. But, I think their sign looks cheesy and their interior decor seems run down and crummy, even though it's new. Couldn't have anything to do with all the crap from China on the shelves? Feels too much like a 1960's K-Mart.
What's a republic?
Ross(Unrated) writes:
This economic enviroment reminds me of the panic after 9/11. Pure extrapolation of a worst case senario.
Odd that you should mention that Ross, as that is why this is happening.
The incredibly fast "recovery" after 9/11 -- which somehow managed to paper over the .com bubble as well, bon chance -- was smoke and mirrors to prove the terrorists "hadn't won". We paid for it by spinning a debt bubble of immense proportions.
If this works out the same way 'cause they bubble Treasuries, you really don't want to see what happens when that closes out.
The article also mentions the "AIG effect" of companies cancelling events because they "don't want to look like AIG".
You mean, like money hungry pigs with no regard for their fellow man? Yeah, that's what I thought you meant . . .
I take my hotel with me when I travel. My pickup has an eight foot bed that never needs to be made.
Does this mean $20 hotel rooms?
What pressures can the Fed/Treasury exert to force money out into the public's hands, if the banks won't (quite rightly) lend?
Commercial paper and money market guarantee programs are forcing/ subsidizing some lending.
I guess I'm dumb. How does cutting staff (presumably service for customers) equal return business? Leaving Vegas out for a minute, maybe there are just too many hotel rooms for rent. Overbuilding, anyone?
Browsed retail all weekend long. Amazing discounts, end-of-the-world discounts. People milling, but a lot of put it in the cart, later put back on shelf stuff.
Nordstrom rack was an interesting event. Only placed jammed with people, swamped with buyers. All the former super material girls and friends. All beautiful but with that hard proud defiant look. Gonna go down shopping and won't compromise for knock-offs or substitution. America is a long way from being humbled.
Topher - Why would I pay $500 for a week if I only want to spend one night? Plus - I don't like the idea of staying in peoples' houses.
I don't think the hotel situation is anywhere near as bad now as it was after 9/11. We went to Orlando a couple of months after 9/11 because we heard it was really hurting. We were 2 of about 10 guests at a large Renaissance hotel. It was so depressing we switched to another more popular hotel (Marriott World Center) - which was almost full.
FWIW - Orlando has too many hotel rooms most days of the year. And a lot of bad hotels. You can almost always get them cheap. And you can always get a cheap stay at a place that is trying to sell you time shares if you're willing to endure that kind of BS (I'm not).
Even before 9/11 - things weren't so swell. We were in New York on 9/11 to celebrate our anniversary - and got a great deal on the airfare and the hotel a couple of months before.
Then there was 2004 - the Great Hurricane Year (for Florida). We went to the Ritz Carlton in Sarasota in October - and were just about the only guests except for the FEMA people (who came down for a week but stayed for months).
I think there will be good travel deals end of this year and next. But don't expect to pay $100/night at the Four Seasons in New York anytime soon (although you can get pretty close to that at the Four Seasons in Scottsdale - in August).
As for these stores:
Circuit City
Mervyns
Linen'n Things
Bombay Company
Ann Taylor
They were awful - except perhaps for Ann Taylor - which apparently didn't keep up with the times in terms of fashion and its target market. When's the last time any of you went to a Circuit City instead of Best Buy - Linens 'n Things instead of BB&B - or Mervyns instead of Target. And who ever bought anything at Bombay Company? Roby