"Talking about disposable income, I'm still waiting for my favorite restaurants to empty out a little ... although not too much because I want them to stay in business."
Me too. It's hard to get a decent meal from a McD's dumpster.
CR writes: I'm still waiting for my favorite restaurants to empty out a little
When my wife and I moved here in 2006, the Outback near us was always packed most nights, and Fri/Sat you definitely needed to call ahead.
Last few times we've gone, the place was a ghost town. Now I see TV ads for them, and they're hawking a new 9.99 filet. $10 steaks at Outback? Jeeez....
Seemed that around 2005 or so, everybody in Sacramento bought the red Ford F250 tow package with trailer and Master Craft water ski boat, complete with Van Halen music blasting from the rear speakers and a 6-foot ice chest full of Bud Light.
"Talking about disposable income, I'm still waiting for my favorite restaurants to empty out a little ... although not too much because I want them to stay in business."
The restaurants I've going too lately (especially this past weekend) have been frighteningly empty. Even at prime eating hours. The waiters and waitresses must be making about half of what they did earlier in the year. And the owners cannot be too happy. I foresee a time in the near future where the seas are adrift in former food industry people living on formerly abandoned boats.
Related, does anyone have any comments or insights on the used aircraft market? A friend is looking at a half share on a C-150, but I'm thinking airplane prices won't do well in the next few years. Me, I'm a newish pilot who wouldn't mind picking up a cheap 172 at some point to putt around in.
Well here in my little corner of Florida after a bad year 3 years ago and a horrid last 2 years the food joints around here are back to being packed. I took the parents and some friends out Friday and it was over an hour for Outback. Last year at this time there was zero wait. The snowbirds are back in force.
But,home prices are still falling...
According to a friend in the boat biz,the really good deals will be in about a year. Most people are still trying to hang on.
"I never really knew boats were that expensive. $29K for that? They must have a helluva markup."
In Sactown, a lot of HELOC money went into boats. My wife and I used to laugh at them on the freeway on the weekends, all these mid-twenties aged tribal-band-tat tanned dudes going out for an EXTREME weekend.
Saturday night we were on our way out and I noticed TGIF, Outback and a local Mexican Restaraunt that are normally packed with about eight cars apiece at 8pm...
always wanted a fast boat after reading Michener's Caribbean. figured if my current life went T.U. i could be a pirate. even have a name for my pirate boat. Hombre Secreto
--
The best evidence of a bad econo-political system is that it breeds bad behavior by constantly encouraging it and rewarding it, sometimes merely by not punishing it. Long enough bad behavior starts to breed bad people from top to bottom. It develops into a bad culture.
The bad system keeps getting badder and badder every day. If you are optimistic about Americas future you need to visit a shrink.
I wonder how the RV market is doing. Except you probably won't get people abandoning their fifth-wheeler bump-outs... they'll be living in them in a Wal-Mart lot somewhere.
Wonder if the same thing would happen if casinos actually closed.
Some do, and yes, it does.
Many years ago (1993-1995) I used to play poker in the quasi-legal cardrooms in Prince Georges County, Maryland. They were run out of Knights of Columbus or Elks lodges.
Usually, they were open until 11pm weekdays, sometimes 1am weekends. The action in the last hour as the people who were stuck try to unstick themselves was tremendous.
Same reason the betting on Monday Night Football is bigger than the other games. "Got to get even".
Q: What's the difference between praying in church, and praying in a casino?
I would rather invest in yachts in the next 2 years, than rubbish art over the past 3. Expensive depreciation, operation, and maintenance costs wihtstanding
This year, the [S.C.] state Legislature approved $100,000 for abandoned boat removal. There's also about $75,000 in federal money available, said OCRM press spokesman Dan Burger. The grants include a 25 percent match requirement for municipalities and $50,000 maximum state contribution.
Connor-Rooks said the city has estimated removal costs could run a little more than $61,000, of which the city would pay about $15,000.
I remember during the great depression, a family next to ours took their boat into the middle of the lake and sunk it, because they could not afford to pay property tax on it. Rough times.
If I had a boat
I'd go out on the ocean
And if I had a pony
I'd ride him on my boat
And we could all together
Go out on the ocean
Me upon my pony on my boat
Vehicle traffic has definitely lightened up a lot over the year. The volume AND speed dropped in the Spring and early Summer, but now that gas has went back down the speed has went back up, but volume still remains lower.
Happiest days owning boat: the day your insurance check clears at a safe solvent bank, and the day the dollars you get are backed by a currency that has an uptick with TARP backing.
Shares of United Therapeutics Corp. (UTHR) plummeted as much as 38% Monday after the biotechnology concern said a trial for a potential oral version of its treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension failed because some patients were unable to handle the full dose prescribed due to side effects.
Went furniture shopping this weekend in the "EastLake Design District" in eastern Chula Vista, CA- bubble central. Its a new "mall" that supposed to be full of furniture stores. It is, at best, about 40% occupied.
But the scarier part is the total lack of customers in the stores that are there. First store had at least a 3:1 employee: customer ratio. And this was on a Saturday morning. Wife and I were basically stalked as we walked around each store- salesman had no need to worry about another customer coming in the door.
Prices still high (very few clearance items) and way too many employees. Seems that the stores are slow to admit their business model wont be working any more.
I made a graph of 30 Day Paper for the last year and a half. It belongs on the previous thread but I thought I'd drop it here too:
I'm looking at this wondering how comparable CP and longer term corporate bonds are. I.E. should they generally be thought of as separate beasts when considering the health of the credit markets.
I'm hoping for a slip for my 'yacht' but haven't been able to figure out whether folks will abandon their boat to stay in their home or abandon their house and live on their boats.
Depends on size I guess. Smaller slips should be more available.
serf hopeinsd(Unrated) writes:
Went furniture shopping this weekend in the "EastLake Design District" in eastern Chula Vista, CA- bubble central. Its a new "mall" that supposed to be full of furniture stores. It is, at best, about 40% occupied.
hopeinsd,
This mall was suppose to provide revenue to CV. Its not ponying up sh*t. I bet CV goes bankrupt in the next two years.
On a side i was at the carlsbad outlets 3 weeks ago. Good sales on most of the stuff (Please note that someone needs to tell Banana Republic $60 for a pair of jeans is not a f'in sale) and no problem with that parking lot. (Usually its a bear!)
"Related, does anyone have any comments or insights on the used aircraft market?"
tlm, I speak from experience. You're better off renting air-time. Read all the comments about boats being money pits and apply that to an airplane 10 times over.
tlm writes:
"Related, does anyone have any comments or insights on the used aircraft market?"
Pick up a copy of Trade-a-Plane at your local FBO and thumb through it. I'm sure you'll see a couple of dozen 172's. If you want "cheap" check out a 175 but make sure it has the Lycoming conversion. You'll get 180 HP for the half the price of a comparable 172.
Alot like "Furniture Row" on Miramar. Just bought a new sofa and chair...we were literally stalked the entire time we were looking. I gave up looking at those stores because they were all horribly over-priced and had zero selection. Most of the sales wonks looked like they had not eaten in weeks.
The other thing about those stores on Miramar....they've had countless "going out of business" sales over the last 5 years. This time is will be permanent.
In the '80s I had a client who sold boats and motors. The boat manufacturer began financing boats with 15 year loans. My client told me that boats don't last 15 years. He was right, the boat manufacturer went BK.
As a boat owner, and avid shopper of boats, I can tell you no one will be abandoning their Hinckleys and Cheoy Lees. The article is referencing junk commercial boats mainly. Have you seen what a boat is like when the owner just gives it away? I dare say most of you would not step on board, much less think it has any value during any economic circumstance.
There will be deals out there, but don't expect to go down to the wharf and take possession of a 50 ft yacht that some dude just abandoned.
As for blue water sailboats, they will hold their value in bad times as a method of escape.
Sam Dimond said: "...Have you seen what a boat is like when the owner just gives it away? I dare say most of you would not step on board, much less think it has any value during any economic circumstance.
There will be deals out there, but don't expect to go down to the wharf and take possession of a 50 ft yacht that some dude just abandoned...."
Piece of crap boats don't last 15 years.
Some of the best sailboats out there are near 40 years old. They sell for 3 times their original price. The hulls are solid fiberglass as opposed to cored. I can go on. Needless to say it is about quality, not age.
Correa, the Ecuadorian president, played some bond chicken before and paid on the last day of the grace period IIRC, we'll see if history rhymes...
Ecuador's Correa May Burn Ally Chavez in Bond Default (Update1)
By Lester Pimentel and Daniel Cancel
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador President Rafael Correa's looming default on $510 million of bonds may hurt his biggest ally, Venezuela President Hugo Chavez, more than anyone else.
Ecuador, hamstrung by a tumble in oil, its biggest export, said last week it will use a 30-day grace period to decide whether to make a $30 million interest payment that came due Nov. 15. Chavez's government owns structured notes tied to Ecuador's bonds that would force Venezuela to pay $800 million if Correa doesn't make the payment, according to estimates by Barclays Capital Inc.
Watching CNBC parade out an endless line of idiots stating "now is the time to buy" makes me wonder......sure, at some point they may be right....but I've heard this time and time again since time began. Yesterday's Peter Schiff video of the day was awesome and illustrative. But I must say....where are the people getting the cash to give these fools to invest? I mean, if anyone actually trusted them, they'd be fully in stocks for months already and severly underwater. The only people who have cash are the "non-believers" like myself who sold a year or more ago. Sure there are people like me sitting in cash...but really, are we going listen to those who never would have recommended we go all-cash in the first place? Why would we listen to them now?
I'll listen to someone who said "go all-cash" in the summer of 07, but as far as I know, there weren't many if any, and the Clintons aren't financial advisors so I can't wait for their advice.
I wish Cavuto or Kudlow would show that 10 minute Schiff video and invite some comments. They constantly have disclaimers that the shows are more entertainment than investment advice, but really how much more entertaining could it be to show their past prognostications and then grill them/embarrass them on it?
That's entertainment!
But the truth is that it's in their genetic make-up to be pro-stocks for a variety of reasons and their avoidance of showing how wrong they've been is proof.
tlm, I speak from experience. You're better off renting air-time. Read all the comments about boats being money pits and apply that to an airplane 10 times over.
2nd homes, cabins, boats, cars, cycles,
3-wheelers, RV, trailers, travel, dinners out(except McD), cruises, airplanes, and anything else not related to battoning down the hatches. Good bye. Down the road those with the cash will get some deals. Patience.
MS-
A lady I know became very rich going into furniture stores and running the going out of business sales as a contractor, brought all the salespeople etc, she was paid consultant fee plus % of store profit during sale.... It's a lost leader..
never got above 8th grade, very streetsmart and up at 5:30 smoking a cigarette everyday thinking about how to make money...
A coworker buys hit boats during these downturns. The current boat he lives on is a bit small. He doesn't want one of the new monster yachts... but he figures he can grab a 9' longer boat with an extra cabin and larger kitchen. Yes... he'll lose on the old. Oh, he's not going to go more than 15' longer as that is the max allowed for his slip.
No one will abandon 50' boats. But do you realize how many 56' boats were shipped over from China the last few years? We didn't accumulate yachts like this is the 1930's! Oh... now the yachts are fiberglass (up to 75') and thus won't rot out like in the 1930's.
Harley needs to build a bike like the old 125 sprint and the small 250cc cruiser bikes. The smallest they sell is huge and expensive. Gonna have to retool...
Posted this last night... but some people I know who make stained glass windows -- the ultimate discretionary purchase, unless you're a catholic church -- are booked up with commissions through March. You could be talking over $3K installed for a single window.
I dunno, maybe there really is a high, high-end consumer stratum which is untouched.
According to Ark dimensions commonly accepted by TARP literalists, the Ark would have had a gross volume of about 1.5 million cubic feet (40,000 m³), a displacement a little less than half that of the Titanic at about 22,000 tons, and total floor space of around 100,000 square feet (9,300 m²). The question of whether it could have carried two (or more) specimens of the various species (including those now extinct), plus food and fresh water, is a matter of much debate, even bitter dispute, between TARP literalists and their opponents. While some TARP literalists hold that the Ark could have held all known species, a more common position today is that the Ark contained "kinds" rather than speciesfor instance, a male and female of the cat "kind" rather than representatives of tigers, lions, cougars, ponies etc.
Bob Dobbs(Unrated) writes:
Posted this last night... but some people I know who make stained glass windows -- the ultimate discretionary purchase, unless you're a catholic church -- are booked up with commissions through March. You could be talking over $3K installed for a single window.
Bob thanks! At least I have a fall back plan if they stop building buildings in SoCal!
Rob - I know a very wealthy guy in town who just dumped his plane at a big loss (I thought an airplane was a good investment), he is trying to sell his $1 million dollar boat with no success...Buy high and sell low..
I'll bet a $50 to the tip jar that HOG doesnt make it thru the next two years a live.
Everyone who was buying them is cash strapped now...
I beg to differ, I just bought one....cash sale....$22,000 he invested, I waved $9500 cash under his chin and the gentleman sold it to me no questions asked...got to love that cash position.
"Down the road those with the cash will get some deals. Patience."
I'll be down the river. But TIA.
In other news:
"The National Association of Business Economists' poll of 50 professional forecasters released on Monday found that real gross domestic product was expected to fall 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter and slump 1.3 percent in the first three months of 2009."
Bunch of geniuses there. These people are in their positions why?
nades writes:
I'll bet a $50 to the tip jar that HOG doesnt make it thru the next two years a live.
Interesting issue/company. Remember they saw a prototypical government intervention in the early 80s to "protect" them. The obvious part was an import tax on motorcycles displacing 700cc or more. They eventually got their act together and are more like Apple than GM when they could have easily ended up Studebaker.
HOG may not survive a vicious downturn but it won't be because of any bad practices unlike the major automakers.
Watching CNBC parade out an endless line of idiots stating "now is the time to buy" makes me wonder......sure, at some point they may be right....but I've heard this time and time again since time began.
No... the time to buy will come when there is no parade of idiots saying "Buy, buy, buy!"
I worked in that industry for years, it is hard to guess what church people will do. I have seen them install thousands of dollars of glass into dung heap buildings where the entire time you are wondering why aren't they spending this money on the structure...
After reading all the hole in the water comments, I felt I had to say(I hope I don't jinx myself by doing this)I have never lost money on a boat, and most of the time make a hefty profit. There are always super deals on boats out there, no matter the economy. You have to do most of the work yourself and enjoy what you do. I love boats. People will always want to get on the water, depression or not. My present boat is a 36ft Cheoy Lee Sloop.
Lots of MEW boats for sale in our marina.
I own a Sharpe houseboat and my bow thruster went out recently. I wait for TARP assistance before I replace it.
Nades-
Yep, Chula Vista is a city built on a bubble economy. Have friends living there (I live in City of San Diego) and I was slightly jealous of their nicer parks/librarys/rec programs.
I suspect that the city won't go BK, but the library and rec center doors will be shut, and parks will return to their "native vegetation".
HOG has already used the commercial paper facility from the FED....in addition they offloaded about $1.5b in bad debt to some sucker, oh I mean "investor", a few months ago.
One the the reasons I closed my short (high 50's) on them was the access to the above mentioned commercial paper facility and I wouldn't be surprised if they got TARP money too.
I closed it at 19.5x...watched it go to 26.xx and didn't reload it. Can't win them all.
"nades writes:
Bob Dobbs(Unrated) writes:
"Posted this last night... but some people I know who make stained glass windows ... are booked up with commissions through March."
Bob thanks! At least I have a fall back plan if they stop building buildings in SoCal!"
Don't know if you're funnin' or not. But if you're not, beware buying a stained glass shop at a "bargain" price. They're losing the low end of the market to cheap Chinese imports, and the only ones making it are the ones who do a lot of commission work/repairs and/or have expanded into glass beadmaking.
As I'm sending out storage invoices for winter storage for boats. Your making me depressed with all this.
On the flip side....just remember when the neighborhood goes to *ell its alot easier to relocate with a boat. Keep in mind the Coast Guard is there to save you!
crispy&cole writes:
Rob - I know a very wealthy guy in town who just dumped his plane at a big loss (I thought an airplane was a good investment), he is trying to sell his $1 million dollar boat with no success...Buy high and sell low..
Ahh the "David Plan."
Seriously, airplanes will likely be great investments albeit with high carrying costs. If I read the tea leaves we are about to lose the entire domestic PA industry devolving to merely overseas and niche products.
There is no such thing as a "million dollar boat" unless you modify the phrase with; "that bitch of a boat cost me..."
The historically minded would do well to research the history of FDR's yacht.
Wooden ships on the water, very free and easy,
Easy, you know the way it's supposed to be,
Silver people on the shoreline, let us be,
Talkin' 'bout very free and easy...
Horror grips us as we watch you die,
All we can do is echo your anguished cries,
Stare as all human feelings die,
We are leaving - you don't need us...
KUWAIT CITY: Kuwait's Gulf Bank said Monday it lost 375 million dinars ($1.4 billion) as a result of trading in derivatives and other financial instruments, and that its board had resigned.
The bank, Kuwait's second largest lender by assets
Barley writes:
KUWAIT CITY: Kuwait's Gulf Bank said Monday it lost 375 million dinars ($1.4 billion) as a result of trading in derivatives and other financial instruments, and that its board had resigned.
BOHICA Baby writes:
Maybe pricey sport cars are next?
If they'd sell you a boat for $1,
I'd like to get me a Porsche for a buck! Maybe those Urban myths are not so mythical at all.....
The boomer bait is already crashing. A muscle car or blingbox isn't gonna meet reserve. It will be a very long time unfortunately before the low mileage 911 club racers and church going Maseratti bi-turbos are dumped. I'm not a snob, I'll be happy with a weekend S2000 because I know how to drive it.
You got a fast (boat)
And we go cruising to entertain ourselves
You still ain't got a job
And I work in a market as a checkout girl
I know things will get (worse)
You'll (get stimulus) and I'll get (healthcare)
We'll move (into) the shelter
(Foreclose our) big house and (steal copper) in the suburbs
hank to kashnkarry: throw the ppt that tranche of CDO's and that smelly SIV we found in the gutter on Wall St. Saturday. (sound of banks of hard disks chattering in anticipation) The kids have a long afternoon . . .
I urge everyone to try to find a "free" boat near them and go check it out. 97 times out of 100 its a rotting, stinking, hulk of trash that wouldn't be worth having.
Rising tide lifts...Errrr sinking tide sinks all....ships. "This sucker is going down." GWB-That was his first correct statement of the entire presidency. The ecomomic fix is like a WMD...They just can't find it.
Have to admit that I took the family out to Black Angus for the 15th wedding anniversary (we had a gift card for it) on OCt. 30th, a Thursday.
Okay, it is BA and it was the day before Halloween, however, it was DEAD!
Maybe 5-6 tables in use at any given time during the 2.5 hrs. we were there. It was so quiet, it was spooky. One whole half of the restaurant was closed/empty. Really sad. I don't ask if it was normal, but let's just say if that is the norm, it will be gone soon.
Rob Dawg,
be careful lumping muscle cars in with the rest of the bling; an old 60s hot rod that's easy to work on, needs no inspection, parts are cheap and plentiful, built to last. Seems like a valuable asset to me.
This is simply not sustainable. Poor FL residents!
Energy costs
Progress Energy bills will increase 25 percent in January to pay for the rising cost of fuel and the early stages of its $17-billion nuclear plant. Tampa Electric bills will rise 12 percent to pay for fuel, with an additional increase possible in May.
Sam Dimond writes:
I urge everyone to try to find a "free" boat near them and go check it out. 97 times out of 100 its a rotting, stinking, hulk of trash that wouldn't be worth having.
So 2005. Those trophy barges have been sucking the lifeblood from boomers since. They'd never let their investment depreciate. Assets only go up.
Sadly, wasn't it last week the world's largest exotic car dealer, located in Santa Ana, Ca went TU?
...What's next Fletcher Jones? - OCDan
Barley, you got that right. They let GulfPower have an emergency rate hike back in the Spring of 16 or 17 percent and now are letting them hike it another 9 percent in January. Didn't the commodities market plummet?
In 1926, William "Big Bill" Dwyer was convicted of trying to bribe a coast guard official and sentenced to 2 years in prison. Italian Boss and Dwyer ally, Francesco Castiglia, who changed his name to Frank Costello once he became involved with the Irish Combine, stepped up to take control of Bill Dwyer's operations, Costello was helped by Dwyer associate, the Irish Boss of Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, Charles "Vannie" Higgins, who was said to be second only to Bill Dwyer in the rumrunning business. Vannie Higgins was called "Brooklyn's Last Irish Boss" and controlled the Brooklyn waterfront and its Irish stevedores during Prohibition. He had a small fleet of speedboats and airplanes he used to control the rumrunning and liquor smuggling on the Long Island coast.
Privateer Gerkinov - and dont forget you can park you RV at WalMart stores during off business hours - they actually encourage it! So, its free land for a few hours.
Have to agree w/the poster above that the older 60s models may be keepers.
Unless you are in the Buffet range, what good is a Lamborghini? I mean if you make 250K, that is anywhere from 2-3 yrs. of your gross salary. That is just nutso, unless you get a windfall somewhere or have saved every penny you earned for several years.
Even then upkeep has got to hurt.
What does an oil change involve in time and money on one of those monsters.
You can't just take that thing to Jiffy Lube. I'm just sayin'!
"SEC FILES INSIDER TRADING CHARGES AGAINST MARK CUBAN
Washington, D.C., Nov. 17, 2008 - The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Dallas entrepreneur Mark Cuban with insider trading for selling 600,000 shares of the stock of an Internet search engine company on the basis of material, non-public information concerning an impending stock offering...The Commission's complaint, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, alleges that in June 2004, Mamma.com Inc. invited Cuban to participate in the stock offering after he agreed to keep the information confidential. The complaint further alleges that Cuban knew that the offering would be conducted at a discount to the prevailing market price and that it would be dilutive to existing shareholders...Within hours of receiving this information, according to the complaint, Cuban called his broker and instructed him to sell Cuban's entire position in the company...Insider trading cases are a high priority for the Commission. This case demonstrates yet again that the Commission will aggressively pursue illegal insider trading whenever it occurs," said Linda Chatman Thomsen, Director of the SEC's Division of Enforcement."
They waited four years to charge him and then have the nerve to say that insider trading is a priority? Insane.
Sam Dimond writes:
Rob Dawg,
be careful lumping muscle cars in with the rest of the bling; an old 60s hot rod that's easy to work on, needs no inspection, parts are cheap and plentiful, built to last. Seems like a valuable asset to me.
Agreed. An SS "driver" is valuable even at 11mpg but I wasn't clear. I was talking about the body off restos that are flooding the market no-bid at $18.5k nevermind meeting reserve after undergoing $60k rejuvenation treatments.
When are companies ever going to hire again? I mean what could spark/start a recovery?
This is bad.
Its amusing now to some extent joking about boats, but its going to get bad, people will lose important items like the ability to buy food and then it won't be amusing to anybody.
By the mid-1920s, Higgins' rum-running operations included a fleet of taxis and loading trucks, as well as several planes and numerous speedboats which were used in smuggling alcohol into the United States from Canada (one of which, the Cigarette, was described as "the fastest rum-runner in New York waters").
It looks like the next hurricane season you will see a lot of boats on trailers heading towards the water rather than pulling them out of the water to safety.
If famine stalks the land the national
epidemic of obesity and diabetes will end and Doctors can dust off the old
medical text books and read up on ricketts, pellegra and hookworms.
Nope...muscle cars are the next bubble...already happening in some cases. When you saw prices for anything with a hemi in it fetching over $330k that was the sign.
Most people have no idea that "mopar" means more parts......expensive ones too.
Said it before....muscle cars (most of them) are the Ferrari testarossa's of this generation.
I know of several examples of late 80's Testa's being sold for well over $1m....can get one for about 80K (in really good shape) now.
The Hedge Fund ascent over the last 5 year's made sure that the next popping bubble (in auto's) will be in 60's and 70's muscle cars. I twill really be obvious this time next year. Count on it.
America will not stand for this SEC nonsense. Mark Cuban was on Dancing with the Stars! Everyone knows there are no evil people on Dancing with the Stars!
All right, where's Shnaps? He said he made his rep finding someone to move repo'd boats.
That was a in a previous job. Repo'd boats take a HUGE haircut. The bigger the boat, the larger the loss. Case in point, my pal Latrell Sprewell's vessel, "Milwaukee's Best", which fetched $856,000 at auction. He still owed $1,300,000 at the time - dunno what he paid for it.
Even I couldn't have gotten much more than that for that monstrosity.
If you are around I would like to ask an earnest question about a comment you made a couple days ago. It was in regard to Switzerland being at the front of the line for a currency/banking attack.
I agree that the Swiss are in trouble. However, I am not knowledgeable enough to know what the spells for their currency (Swiss Franc). Earlier in the year the CHF was following the JPY as riskier currencies were falling. More recently, the CHF is now following the Euro lower --- clearly not benefiting from carry unwind like the JPY. When Swiss Banking takes the next major hit, do you think the CHF continues to follow the Euro lower? It seems the CHF is even in a worse position than the Euro and GBP as Swiss interest rates are pretty low. In any case, any thoughts/comments you could provide would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.
Barley writes:
Privateer Gerkinov - and dont forget you can park you RV at WalMart stores during off business hours - they actually encourage it! So, its free land for a few hours.
Forget the parking lot, they could set up right inside the vacated Circuit City next door.
Hey...Castroneves got indicted for tax fraud. Tried to get it held off to next Nov. Penske is also tied into it as well...depositing paychecks into a Panama Bank sort of makes you part of it.
$750k is mouse nuts to Cuban.....he's stupid for doing it....don't these people understand write-offs? Apparently not....
Dawg--I have a client in the business, who now can't get reserve prices. Specializes in 57 58 Chevies.
I watch some of those car auction shows that have been popping up on the cable channels and lament on how the auto industry just missed out on it's own opportunity at superbubble glory.
We could have had 1970s Trans Ams selling for $500,000.
Had a big cruiser on the river in Wisc. for 5 years. For gas, ins, payment, slip, storage/winter, repairs etc average cost was 2k Month for 12 months.
Not bad for a 3 month season. Comes to 8k per season month Best advice: find a friend who has one.
lawyerliz writes:
Dawg--I have a client in the business, who now can't get reserve prices. Specializes in 57 58 Chevies.
6 months ago, he swore to me that antique car mavens would never stop buying cars.
I went to the prom by driving a 1929 Packard 626. The "sunny day cars" were a 1919/20 Buick and a 1940 Bantam (Hollywood convertible 1 of 6 produced). I say this because it may lend some small credence to my comments.
There are several overlapping markets. Classic, historical, exotic and speciality and special interest. Historicals are fast going to museums. Classics still live but the rest are dead assets rolling.
Rockso: are you a cardiologist? I think I know you. If I do know you, you're the guy who gave me a big wave surfboard shaped and ridden by Gerry Lopez.
I'm sure this has been posted here already but I will do it again just in case. Could be the excuse for the SEC's investigation on Mark Cuban.. a little political payback?
You could be talking over $3K installed for a single window.
Windows are home improvement and a long term investment with a hoped for return when the home sells. I think it's a little outside discretionary spending.
Wealthy people do feel guilty spending when everyone around them is struggling. They also on some level also believe it can all go away and maybe they didn't really deserve to be rich.
A good comparison is SUV drivers, ask yourself if you felt guilty when the gas prices were soaring and global warming stories were all the rage.People are people.
rockso, that's okay I was just using you to brag that I had a surfboard shaped and ridden by gerry lopez. I'm bragging because it's my birthday today and it's the only way I'll get the recognition I need.
Walking away from Banks. 2 failed last week, in Russia. Russia and the states that used to be called Eastern Europe are of interest right now. Not only because of the IMF injections but as money flows out, reserves are used to support the local currency - Russia spent 16B last week defending its currency. But smaller states just dont have the ability.
Anyway here is the banking news from Russian source..
"The Central Bank said Friday that it had taken away the banking license of midsized Lefco and put the Deposit Insurance Agency in charge of Electronica bank.
Lefco had its license revoked for "not fulfilling federal laws that govern banking activity, as well as Central Bank rules" and "the inability to meet creditors' demands," the Central Bank said. It also said Electronica had inadequate liquidity to meet its depositors' and creditors' demands.
Both banks are ranked among Russia's largest 200 lenders.
The Deposit Insurance Agency's functions were expanded in October to provide support to failing banks. The financial crisis and credit crunch have dried up liquidity and created general mistrust among the country's roughly 1,200 banks, most of which are tiny."
cd: I saw the ocean here yesterday it was glassy and ashy. Rode that board once during the winter of '82/'83. It was like a dream. Can't go out in big waves anymore; family doesn't let me.
Some mid-70's Ferrari's you have to take off the whole top side of the engine to even get to the oil filter. In some cases it's a three day job....
Just to change the oil...
Ciao
MS
Ever change the spark plugs on an F body Camaro or God forbid, any muscle car with headers?
I've had to jack up the engines, remove motor mounts, go through the wheel wells, remove A/C and P/S pumps.
Don't get me started on AMC's- Any Motor Company- They used ford alternators, Chrysler trannies and rears, GM parts. I refused to work on them after my first Pacer.
RETAILERS in NSW face the most difficult trading conditions in decades. Butchers, cafes and sporting goods dealers are selling a lot less, but supermarkets are selling a lot more as consumers seek bargains.
The latest snapshot of the retail sector, which makes up about a fifth of the national economy, came as the sharemarket resumed its fall yesterday, driven lower by banking stocks.
Economists expect the retail fragility to cast a pall over national economic growth well into the new year, despite the Rudd Government's determination to use spending to avert a recession.
But in good news for borrowers, the retail figures are likely to convince the Reserve Bank to continue cutting interest rates.
Consumers largely ignored the $7 billion worth of tax cuts in July, according to a report yesterday by the Bureau of Statistics.
Households, the report showed, are shying away from discretionary items such as restaurant meals and recreational equipment.
A ships speed (displacement hull) is determined by it's length, the longer the faster. Aircraft carriers are all over 1000' and all capable of 55+knots.
Obviously horsepower is required to obtain the speed also, but again the vessel speed is limited by length. This only applies to displacement hulls, not hydroplane hulls.
Another area I'm following where prices are down is collectible books. There's a pretty cool meta-search site called Bookfinder that scours all the other online bookselling websites (alibris and others) to get prices for any book you name.
I checked a couple of books I've been interested in, and the lowest asking price on both (generally for a poor-condition copy) is down 40-50 percent from the last time I looked a year ago. And there are many more copies of both now listed available.
My experience as a scientist has been that, prior to research bearing fruit, beancounters see R&D centers as mostly cost with unquantifiable and unschedulable outputs (or at least with outputs likely to happen beyond the window of their stock option plans). The temptation to cut for short-term profit (or to stem short-term losses) is often irresistible.
Worse, if/when an R&D center is wildly productive, then beancounters see the often-immense value of the output, but take it as a given; now the R&D center is pure cost. It's "thanks for proving my fears wrong and coming up with a valuable idea -- and you're fired!".
When valuing a boat, or stock, don't forget to check under the hood and wiggle the Consolidated balance sheet!!!
FYI: Explanation and reconciliation of the Firms use of non-GAAP financial measures on pages 3233 of this Annual Report. Managed results exclude the impact of credit card securitizations on Total net revenue, the Provision for credit losses, net charge-offs and loan receivables. Securitization does not change reported Net income; however, it does affect the classification of items on the Consolidated statements of income and Consolidated balance sheets.
Went to Olive Garden Friday night (only because it was a b'day wish... ugh) and there was the same 45 min. wait as last year when we went. No slowdown there yet.
Back Off Topic, there was a poster here a week or so back who talked about storing 1,000 lbs. of grains in 5 gallon tubs. Does anyone know what kind of tubs those would be? I would think plastic would leach into anything after awhile. Just curious. It would be interesting to have a chat with the manager about ordering 1,000 lbs. of anything. But whatever.
Electric cars are bigger polluters than big block mopars. Follow me: the efficiency of the energy at the socket in your house is less than 10 percent. It's burning coal, man. Do you know the environmental impact of large scale battery production? Unless you are charging with solar and wind and the batteries are as efficient as possible, don't even think about electric.
Sam Dimond writes:
Electric cars are bigger polluters than big block mopars. Follow me: the efficiency of the energy at the socket in your house is less than 10 percent.
31%. You are making several common but unsupportable assumptions.
Talking about disposable income, I'm still waiting for my favorite restaurants to empty out a little ... although not too much because I want them to stay in business.
I take it you arent one of those folks who spent a boatload redoing your kitchen.
Long term food storage - CK nailed it, need dessicant and reduced oxygen - nitrogen flush or poor boy it with CO2 from dry ice (don't let the chilly stuff get too close to the food, condensation and all that...)
Sam Diamond: "efficiency of the energy at the socket in your house is less than 10 percent"
Is line loss for electricity that bad? Because my friend designed turbines for GE and claimed that the efficiency of a turbine reaches 90% for a power plant.
Disposable income is becoming a thing of the past, as more individuals continue to live from check to check. I wish all investors had boats and vessels to sell, but lets face it, the majority of these individuals are sitting on a comfortable pool of wealth. We need to realize that
"the stability of the U.S. $ likely is dependent at least in part on said trading partners being willing to continue to both take and be willing to hold ever increasing U.S. $ denominated U.S. Treasury Bills. China, which holds approximately U.S.$2 trillion was reported in mid-September, 2008 to be considering a reduction in its U.S.$ exposure".
Really? First, there is preventing mold. And, second, it can go rancid in a short period of time.
Anyone remember who that poster was? My problem is it can take days before a post strikes a response in me. I'm ready to ask them a few questions now...
Swim away.
back in town!
Morticia!
Thanks, pig.
Love the pig
Sinking swiftly...
Nostrovia,
"Talking about disposable income, I'm still waiting for my favorite restaurants to empty out a little" CR
I like Big Macs, too
am i first?
All right, where's Shnaps? He said he made his rep finding someone to move repo'd boats.
"Talking about disposable income, I'm still waiting for my favorite restaurants to empty out a little ... although not too much because I want them to stay in business."
Me too. It's hard to get a decent meal from a McD's dumpster.
Nostrovia,
Elvis,
High Five!
Nostrovia,
CR writes: I'm still waiting for my favorite restaurants to empty out a little
When my wife and I moved here in 2006, the Outback near us was always packed most nights, and Fri/Sat you definitely needed to call ahead.
Last few times we've gone, the place was a ghost town. Now I see TV ads for them, and they're hawking a new 9.99 filet. $10 steaks at Outback? Jeeez....
OT
I've lost the Firefox addon a poster here provided. Anyone have a link?
anchor mail
One of my co-worker was telling me that his parents postponed buying tires for their vehicle because their retirment shrunk badly.
Nice. Anyone got a good seaworthy 35-40" sloop they want to walk away from?
I've lost the Firefox addon a poster here provided. Anyone have a link?
crcompanion.com
On boats. A friend describes competitive sailing as the the process of tearing up hundred dollar bills while standing in a cold shower.
Thanks, Eric
On boats. A friend describes competitive sailing as the the process of tearing up hundred dollar bills while standing in a cold shower.
Q: How do you make a small fortune in yachting?
A: Start with a large fortune.
Tonight on 6 o'clock news:
Boat people flee Florida for Cuba !
Cordially,
Килгор Траут
Seemed that around 2005 or so, everybody in Sacramento bought the red Ford F250 tow package with trailer and Master Craft water ski boat, complete with Van Halen music blasting from the rear speakers and a 6-foot ice chest full of Bud Light.
Now we get ads like this:
Must Sell. Will except any reasonable offer.
CR Companion
"Talking about disposable income, I'm still waiting for my favorite restaurants to empty out a little ... although not too much because I want them to stay in business."
The restaurants I've going too lately (especially this past weekend) have been frighteningly empty. Even at prime eating hours. The waiters and waitresses must be making about half of what they did earlier in the year. And the owners cannot be too happy. I foresee a time in the near future where the seas are adrift in former food industry people living on formerly abandoned boats.
Hole in the water in which you throw your $$$ into. Been there done that. Owned a 26' Donzi and a 25' Sea Ray.
These people have no imagination. Insurance fraud. Who's gonna go down a mile underwater to see if the thing was scuttled or not.
Nostrovia,
Sky of blue
C of green
In our yellow...
Related, does anyone have any comments or insights on the used aircraft market? A friend is looking at a half share on a C-150, but I'm thinking airplane prices won't do well in the next few years. Me, I'm a newish pilot who wouldn't mind picking up a cheap 172 at some point to putt around in.
"Must Sell. Will except any reasonable offer."
I never really knew boats were that expensive. $29K for that? They must have a helluva markup.
Misean that's borderline conspiratorial.
1worldcurrencyyogi,
Whatcha mean "near".
Nostrovia,
"I never really knew boats were that expensive. $29K for that? They must have a helluva markup.
Anonymous"
I plan on buying a used boat in good condition for pennies on the dollar soon. Used toys are cheap during depressions.
erp crap, "borderline"
I gotta stop listening and typing at the same time.
Nostrovia,
"I never really knew boats were that expensive. $29K for that? They must have a helluva markup."
Yeah, but, dude, it's the WAKE-BOARD EDITION!!!
The stock market is going up and down.
But nothing counts til the last 10 minutes.
Oops, the last 10 plus 30 minutes.
Is after hours trading gonna be extended?
"Yeah, but, dude, it's the WAKE-BOARD EDITION!!!"
LOL. Aha, the testosterone markup. Now I get it.
tlm writes:
"Related, does anyone have any comments or insights on the used aircraft market?"
I'm haven't been looking at used aircraft, but I have noticed hangars for sale at airports where there was previously a multi-year waiting list.
If only this was only a 3 hour tour
I wonder if there have been any fake boat sinking insurance scams?
Next thing, will be people walking away from cell phones...
I'd buy a nice used houseboat. It would be pretty cool to live on one. Tough to foreclose if they can't find you.lol
ll,
"But nothing counts til the last 10 minutes.
Oops, the last 10 plus 30 minutes."
Wonder if the same thing would happen if casinos actually closed.
Nostrovia,
Went to our favorite Indian restaurant. Nobody but us there the whole meal. Been there for many years.
Well here in my little corner of Florida after a bad year 3 years ago and a horrid last 2 years the food joints around here are back to being packed. I took the parents and some friends out Friday and it was over an hour for Outback. Last year at this time there was zero wait. The snowbirds are back in force.
But,home prices are still falling...
According to a friend in the boat biz,the really good deals will be in about a year. Most people are still trying to hang on.
Chris
"I never really knew boats were that expensive. $29K for that? They must have a helluva markup."
In Sactown, a lot of HELOC money went into boats. My wife and I used to laugh at them on the freeway on the weekends, all these mid-twenties aged tribal-band-tat tanned dudes going out for an EXTREME weekend.
It all goes back to the bank in the end.
I made a graph of 30 Day Paper for the last year and a half. It belongs on the previous thread but I thought I'd drop it here too:
http://thumbsnap.com/v/P2DG6ZGQ.jpg
~n
.....................
My Glod! Look at those charts! We're going from mountains to comb filter plots.
The two happiest days of owning a boat: the day you buy it and the day you sell it.
Saturday night we were on our way out and I noticed TGIF, Outback and a local Mexican Restaraunt that are normally packed with about eight cars apiece at 8pm...
"Anchor mail."
Core dump.
Nostrovia,
always wanted a fast boat after reading Michener's Caribbean. figured if my current life went T.U. i could be a pirate. even have a name for my pirate boat. Hombre Secreto
--
The best evidence of a bad econo-political system is that it breeds bad behavior by constantly encouraging it and rewarding it, sometimes merely by not punishing it. Long enough bad behavior starts to breed bad people from top to bottom. It develops into a bad culture.
The bad system keeps getting badder and badder every day. If you are optimistic about Americas future you need to visit a shrink.
Jas
Thanks, nades.
I wonder how the RV market is doing. Except you probably won't get people abandoning their fifth-wheeler bump-outs... they'll be living in them in a Wal-Mart lot somewhere.
Wonder if the same thing would happen if casinos actually closed.
Some do, and yes, it does.
Many years ago (1993-1995) I used to play poker in the quasi-legal cardrooms in Prince Georges County, Maryland. They were run out of Knights of Columbus or Elks lodges.
Usually, they were open until 11pm weekdays, sometimes 1am weekends. The action in the last hour as the people who were stuck try to unstick themselves was tremendous.
Same reason the betting on Monday Night Football is bigger than the other games. "Got to get even".
Q: What's the difference between praying in church, and praying in a casino?
A: When you pray in a casino, you realy mean it.
ades writes:
"I made a graph of 30 Day Paper for the last year and a half."
The right hand side of that chart looks like a shark's mouth wide open.
ades,
Thanks, but disaster pr0n is supposed to have a warning.
Nostrovia,
wallypower 118 - Google Search
I would rather invest in yachts in the next 2 years, than rubbish art over the past 3. Expensive depreciation, operation, and maintenance costs wihtstanding
Can I haz a monster short squeeze ? I loaded up on calls @ SPX 850.
Updated for 2008 -
"The two happiest days of owning a boat: the day you find it abandoned and the day you scuttle it."
Can I haz a monster short squeeze ? I loaded up on calls @ SPX 850.
But I waited two hours and 25 points to tell everyone.
I thought I typed "borderline conspiratorial"
RV market is as dead as the rest of the auto market.
Couple 5mpg, six figures for a decent RV, and the economy, and sales are nead non existent.
Look up WGO- near 52 week low. Company lost money and is laying off.
"I'm still waiting for my favorite restaurants to empty out a little"
The Chicago Tribune has an article re declining restaurant traffice:
More elbow room at tables as business lunches drop off - Chicago Tribune
For CR graph fans, it even has trend lines for three different chains.
The two happiest days of owning a boat: the day you scuttle it and the day you get your insurance claim check
I'm curious, does one have to be a deity to "actually walk away" from a boat?
Nostrovia,
You can bring a horse to water but you cannot put it into a pleasure boat or working vessel.
hhahahahahah, Misean.
Nah, actually I was thinking of this. Must plan ahead for a fortuitous rescue.
More boat news:
The Contra Costa Sheriff's Marine Patrol said almost 30 decaying barges, tugboats and fishing boats are floating aimlessly in the Delta. ...
The state of California spends about a $1.5 million a year removing deserted recreational boats.
At Least 30 Abandoned Boats Floating In Delta - cbs5.com
This year, the [S.C.] state Legislature approved $100,000 for abandoned boat removal. There's also about $75,000 in federal money available, said OCRM press spokesman Dan Burger. The grants include a 25 percent match requirement for municipalities and $50,000 maximum state contribution.
Connor-Rooks said the city has estimated removal costs could run a little more than $61,000, of which the city would pay about $15,000.
Folly seeks grants to remove boats The Post and Courier - Charleston SC newspaper
I remember during the great depression, a family next to ours took their boat into the middle of the lake and sunk it, because they could not afford to pay property tax on it. Rough times.
Best to all.
I'm curious, does one have to be a deity to "actually walk away" from a boat?
LOL! A deity or just have a god complex....
.....
What this country has come to.
The Atlanta mayor on TV asking for a piece of the TARP.
Look at the Atlanta mayor.
Listen to what comes out of the Atlanta mayors mouth.
Look again at the Atlanta mayor.
What this country has come to.
Add on link, for those who got to sent the wrong place:
CR Companion
so you can finally filter out the idiots.
If you plan it just right, by the time you die the tires are totally bald.
Happiest days owning boat: the day your insurance check clears, and the day the dollars you get are backed by hard assets.
Mkt green.
In honor of all the talk of ponies and boats:
Lyle Lovett
.
If I had a boat
I'd go out on the ocean
And if I had a pony
I'd ride him on my boat
And we could all together
Go out on the ocean
Me upon my pony on my boat
Vehicle traffic has definitely lightened up a lot over the year. The volume AND speed dropped in the Spring and early Summer, but now that gas has went back down the speed has went back up, but volume still remains lower.
Why are radio stocks going down down today, is it because advertising will decline?
Curious,
"In honor of all the talk of ponies and boats:"
If you drop said pony from 12,000 ft onto said boat, you could get a nice insurance check and buy a new pony.
Nostrovia,
by the time you die the tires are totally bald.
Driving on bald tires will also improve your chances of dying before you get new ones.
From the airplane you are about to parachute out of. And drop away.
The crash of the boat bubble is going to reverberate throughout the global economy.
Happiest days owning boat: the day your insurance check clears at a safe solvent bank, and the day the dollars you get are backed by a currency that has an uptick with TARP backing.
...In bad economy, boat owners abandon their vessels...
Very insightful post.
so you can finally filter out the idiots.
Anonymous | 11.17.08 - 12:37 pm |
I know those that just watch Fox News "so they can filter out the idiots"
The idiots are those that march in lockstep to the popular mindset, when the evidence proves the contrary.
And then they wonder why things are so bad.
Don't take this drug in your boat:
Shares of United Therapeutics Corp. (UTHR) plummeted as much as 38% Monday after the biotechnology concern said a trial for a potential oral version of its treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension failed because some patients were unable to handle the full dose prescribed due to side effects.
ac,
"The crash of the boat bubble is going to reverberate throughout the global economy."
The wave of foreclosures will create a tsunami.
Nostrvaia,
The idiots are those that march in lockstep to the popular mindset, when the evidence proves the contrary.
And sometimes, idiots are just idiots.
Groaaaannnnnnnn.
Will GM declare BK before Thanksgiving?
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
Curious,
"In honor of all the talk of ponies and boats:"
If you drop said pony from 12,000 ft onto said boat, you could get a nice insurance check and buy a new pony.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
So you kill a pony to buy a pony...sounds like a Russian to me. Destruction creates wealth argument is buckiss.
And know I can't sail in my yacht,
he's taken everything I've got
All's I've gots this sunny afternoon.
Help me help me help me sail awaaay.
I've got a big fat mama trying to put the squeeze on me
Cause I love to live so pleasantly
Live this life of luxury
Lazin on a sunny afternoon
in the summertime,
in the summertime.
Ray Davies.
I read there was a tsunami that wasn't. It was cancelled out by all those crashing sloshing boats.
Misean
(and all others who need it)
Rimshot
Went furniture shopping this weekend in the "EastLake Design District" in eastern Chula Vista, CA- bubble central. Its a new "mall" that supposed to be full of furniture stores. It is, at best, about 40% occupied.
But the scarier part is the total lack of customers in the stores that are there. First store had at least a 3:1 employee: customer ratio. And this was on a Saturday morning. Wife and I were basically stalked as we walked around each store- salesman had no need to worry about another customer coming in the door.
Prices still high (very few clearance items) and way too many employees. Seems that the stores are slow to admit their business model wont be working any more.
ChangeYourDogCanRollIn writes:
Listen to what comes out of the Atlanta mayors mouth.
Look again at the Atlanta mayor.
What this country has come to.
ChangeYourDogCanRollIn | 11.17.08 - 12:36 pm
Got a link?
I'm collecting web articles about mayors wanting billion USDs from ye ol' TARP.
I made a graph of 30 Day Paper for the last year and a half. It belongs on the previous thread but I thought I'd drop it here too:
I'm looking at this wondering how comparable CP and longer term corporate bonds are. I.E. should they generally be thought of as separate beasts when considering the health of the credit markets.
OT:
Why is F not moving--or moving downwards--and yet GM is moving upwards? Is it tied to who gets bailout ponies?
F is the strongest of the two, but sure isn't being rewarded by the market for it.
I'm hoping for a slip for my 'yacht' but haven't been able to figure out whether folks will abandon their boat to stay in their home or abandon their house and live on their boats.
Depends on size I guess. Smaller slips should be more available.
serf hopeinsd(Unrated) writes:
Went furniture shopping this weekend in the "EastLake Design District" in eastern Chula Vista, CA- bubble central. Its a new "mall" that supposed to be full of furniture stores. It is, at best, about 40% occupied.
hopeinsd,
This mall was suppose to provide revenue to CV. Its not ponying up sh*t. I bet CV goes bankrupt in the next two years.
On a side i was at the carlsbad outlets 3 weeks ago. Good sales on most of the stuff (Please note that someone needs to tell Banana Republic $60 for a pair of jeans is not a f'in sale) and no problem with that parking lot. (Usually its a bear!)
.....
"Related, does anyone have any comments or insights on the used aircraft market?"
tlm, I speak from experience. You're better off renting air-time. Read all the comments about boats being money pits and apply that to an airplane 10 times over.
tlm writes:
"Related, does anyone have any comments or insights on the used aircraft market?"
Pick up a copy of Trade-a-Plane at your local FBO and thumb through it. I'm sure you'll see a couple of dozen 172's. If you want "cheap" check out a 175 but make sure it has the Lycoming conversion. You'll get 180 HP for the half the price of a comparable 172.
hopein SD-
Alot like "Furniture Row" on Miramar. Just bought a new sofa and chair...we were literally stalked the entire time we were looking. I gave up looking at those stores because they were all horribly over-priced and had zero selection. Most of the sales wonks looked like they had not eaten in weeks.
The other thing about those stores on Miramar....they've had countless "going out of business" sales over the last 5 years. This time is will be permanent.
Ciao
MS
ac,
"The crash of the boat bubble is going to reverberate throughout the global economy."
The wave of foreclosures will create a tsunami.
Nostrvaia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
The sad thing is I meant to say "ripple" and not reverberate.
even poor old yachts are getting the pink slip....
In the '80s I had a client who sold boats and motors. The boat manufacturer began financing boats with 15 year loans. My client told me that boats don't last 15 years. He was right, the boat manufacturer went BK.
As a boat owner, and avid shopper of boats, I can tell you no one will be abandoning their Hinckleys and Cheoy Lees. The article is referencing junk commercial boats mainly. Have you seen what a boat is like when the owner just gives it away? I dare say most of you would not step on board, much less think it has any value during any economic circumstance.
There will be deals out there, but don't expect to go down to the wharf and take possession of a 50 ft yacht that some dude just abandoned.
As for blue water sailboats, they will hold their value in bad times as a method of escape.
MS,
"The other thing about those stores on Miramar....they've had countless "going out of business" sales over the last 5 years."
You're killing me Larry!
Nostrovia,
FREEEEEEEEEE!!!
Ciao
MS
The article is referencing junk commercial boats mainly.
All boats are junk commercial boats. Unless you hacked it out from a tree log?
I believe he was referencing the difference between pleasure boats and commercial fishing boats...
Sam Dimond said: "...Have you seen what a boat is like when the owner just gives it away? I dare say most of you would not step on board, much less think it has any value during any economic circumstance.
There will be deals out there, but don't expect to go down to the wharf and take possession of a 50 ft yacht that some dude just abandoned...."
Sounds just like houses.
Sebastian
Trader Walt,
Piece of crap boats don't last 15 years.
Some of the best sailboats out there are near 40 years old. They sell for 3 times their original price. The hulls are solid fiberglass as opposed to cored. I can go on. Needless to say it is about quality, not age.
Well damn, Sam. No Riva for burnside. ;0)
ac,
"The sad thing is I meant to say "ripple" and not reverberate."
I can haz my Ripple withs Olde English 800?
Sam Dimond,
"As for blue water sailboats, they will hold their value in bad times as a method of escape."
Hold their water...
Just sayin'.
Nostrovia,
Maybe this is a good time to go Offshore.
a commercial boat is a work boat. Value is used up as it is worked.
Pleasure boats don't endure the stresses of a commercial boat.
Correa, the Ecuadorian president, played some bond chicken before and paid on the last day of the grace period IIRC, we'll see if history rhymes...
Ecuador's Correa May Burn Ally Chavez in Bond Default (Update1)
By Lester Pimentel and Daniel Cancel
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador President Rafael Correa's looming default on $510 million of bonds may hurt his biggest ally, Venezuela President Hugo Chavez, more than anyone else.
Ecuador, hamstrung by a tumble in oil, its biggest export, said last week it will use a 30-day grace period to decide whether to make a $30 million interest payment that came due Nov. 15. Chavez's government owns structured notes tied to Ecuador's bonds that would force Venezuela to pay $800 million if Correa doesn't make the payment, according to estimates by Barclays Capital Inc.
Ecuador's Correa May Burn Ally Chavez in Bond Default (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
Watching CNBC parade out an endless line of idiots stating "now is the time to buy" makes me wonder......sure, at some point they may be right....but I've heard this time and time again since time began. Yesterday's Peter Schiff video of the day was awesome and illustrative. But I must say....where are the people getting the cash to give these fools to invest? I mean, if anyone actually trusted them, they'd be fully in stocks for months already and severly underwater. The only people who have cash are the "non-believers" like myself who sold a year or more ago. Sure there are people like me sitting in cash...but really, are we going listen to those who never would have recommended we go all-cash in the first place? Why would we listen to them now?
I'll listen to someone who said "go all-cash" in the summer of 07, but as far as I know, there weren't many if any, and the Clintons aren't financial advisors so I can't wait for their advice.
I wish Cavuto or Kudlow would show that 10 minute Schiff video and invite some comments. They constantly have disclaimers that the shows are more entertainment than investment advice, but really how much more entertaining could it be to show their past prognostications and then grill them/embarrass them on it?
That's entertainment!
But the truth is that it's in their genetic make-up to be pro-stocks for a variety of reasons and their avoidance of showing how wrong they've been is proof.
MS-
When they finally close it down, will the sales reps be sealed inside the pyramid with the unliquidated inventory?
Boats bla....do one on Harley Davidsons....shit load on Craig's List.
Barley,
It's always a good time to go offshore
tlm, I speak from experience. You're better off renting air-time. Read all the comments about boats being money pits and apply that to an airplane 10 times over.
If it flies, fucks, or floats, rent it.
2nd homes, cabins, boats, cars, cycles,
3-wheelers, RV, trailers, travel, dinners out(except McD), cruises, airplanes, and anything else not related to battoning down the hatches. Good bye. Down the road those with the cash will get some deals. Patience.
I'll bet a $50 to the tip jar that HOG doesnt make it thru the next two years a live.
Everyone who was buying them is cash strapped now...
......
MS-
A lady I know became very rich going into furniture stores and running the going out of business sales as a contractor, brought all the salespeople etc, she was paid consultant fee plus % of store profit during sale.... It's a lost leader..
never got above 8th grade, very streetsmart and up at 5:30 smoking a cigarette everyday thinking about how to make money...
OT-Cubans blog comment on bailout..hmmmmmmmm...
700Billion bailout ? Ebay it ! « blog maverick
A coworker buys hit boats during these downturns. The current boat he lives on is a bit small. He doesn't want one of the new monster yachts... but he figures he can grab a 9' longer boat with an extra cabin and larger kitchen. Yes... he'll lose on the old. Oh, he's not going to go more than 15' longer as that is the max allowed for his slip.
No one will abandon 50' boats. But do you realize how many 56' boats were shipped over from China the last few years? We didn't accumulate yachts like this is the 1930's! Oh... now the yachts are fiberglass (up to 75') and thus won't rot out like in the 1930's.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Boats? Try private aircraft by adding a zero.
WTF am I talking about? Try commercial aircraft and three zeros. Go long the Mojave Airport boneyard.
Harley needs to build a bike like the old 125 sprint and the small 250cc cruiser bikes. The smallest they sell is huge and expensive. Gonna have to retool...
Posted this last night... but some people I know who make stained glass windows -- the ultimate discretionary purchase, unless you're a catholic church -- are booked up with commissions through March. You could be talking over $3K installed for a single window.
I dunno, maybe there really is a high, high-end consumer stratum which is untouched.
According to Ark dimensions commonly accepted by TARP literalists, the Ark would have had a gross volume of about 1.5 million cubic feet (40,000 m³), a displacement a little less than half that of the Titanic at about 22,000 tons, and total floor space of around 100,000 square feet (9,300 m²). The question of whether it could have carried two (or more) specimens of the various species (including those now extinct), plus food and fresh water, is a matter of much debate, even bitter dispute, between TARP literalists and their opponents. While some TARP literalists hold that the Ark could have held all known species, a more common position today is that the Ark contained "kinds" rather than speciesfor instance, a male and female of the cat "kind" rather than representatives of tigers, lions, cougars, ponies etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noah's_Ark
Average Joe writes:
Watching CNBC parade out an endless line of idiots stating "now is the time to buy".
What do expect from an industry that's based on BS and FRAUD.
Bob Dobbs(Unrated) writes:
Posted this last night... but some people I know who make stained glass windows -- the ultimate discretionary purchase, unless you're a catholic church -- are booked up with commissions through March. You could be talking over $3K installed for a single window.
Bob thanks! At least I have a fall back plan if they stop building buildings in SoCal!
Rob - I know a very wealthy guy in town who just dumped his plane at a big loss (I thought an airplane was a good investment), he is trying to sell his $1 million dollar boat with no success...Buy high and sell low..
I'll bet a $50 to the tip jar that HOG doesnt make it thru the next two years a live.
Everyone who was buying them is cash strapped now...
I beg to differ, I just bought one....cash sale....$22,000 he invested, I waved $9500 cash under his chin and the gentleman sold it to me no questions asked...got to love that cash position.
Hmmmm... Bacon Waffles..
Ciao
MS
OnTheRun,
"Down the road those with the cash will get some deals. Patience."
I'll be down the river. But TIA.
In other news:
"The National Association of Business Economists' poll of 50 professional forecasters released on Monday found that real gross domestic product was expected to fall 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter and slump 1.3 percent in the first three months of 2009."
Bunch of geniuses there. These people are in their positions why?
Expired
Nostrovia,
nades writes:
I'll bet a $50 to the tip jar that HOG doesnt make it thru the next two years a live.
Interesting issue/company. Remember they saw a prototypical government intervention in the early 80s to "protect" them. The obvious part was an import tax on motorcycles displacing 700cc or more. They eventually got their act together and are more like Apple than GM when they could have easily ended up Studebaker.
HOG may not survive a vicious downturn but it won't be because of any bad practices unlike the major automakers.
Watching CNBC parade out an endless line of idiots stating "now is the time to buy" makes me wonder......sure, at some point they may be right....but I've heard this time and time again since time began.
No... the time to buy will come when there is no parade of idiots saying "Buy, buy, buy!"
haloscan...hello
c&c has a new friend?
Bob Dobbs,
I worked in that industry for years, it is hard to guess what church people will do. I have seen them install thousands of dollars of glass into dung heap buildings where the entire time you are wondering why aren't they spending this money on the structure...
I tried to refresh and everything was gone...
After reading all the hole in the water comments, I felt I had to say(I hope I don't jinx myself by doing this)I have never lost money on a boat, and most of the time make a hefty profit. There are always super deals on boats out there, no matter the economy. You have to do most of the work yourself and enjoy what you do. I love boats. People will always want to get on the water, depression or not. My present boat is a 36ft Cheoy Lee Sloop.
The hell with some crummy 40-60 foot 'boat'. When can I pick up a 600+
40,000 ton cruise ship for peanuts?
I think RV's might be on the same boat...
Lots of MEW boats for sale in our marina.
I own a Sharpe houseboat and my bow thruster went out recently. I wait for TARP assistance before I replace it.
Nades-
Yep, Chula Vista is a city built on a bubble economy. Have friends living there (I live in City of San Diego) and I was slightly jealous of their nicer parks/librarys/rec programs.
I suspect that the city won't go BK, but the library and rec center doors will be shut, and parks will return to their "native vegetation".
HOG has already used the commercial paper facility from the FED....in addition they offloaded about $1.5b in bad debt to some sucker, oh I mean "investor", a few months ago.
One the the reasons I closed my short (high 50's) on them was the access to the above mentioned commercial paper facility and I wouldn't be surprised if they got TARP money too.
I closed it at 19.5x...watched it go to 26.xx and didn't reload it. Can't win them all.
Ciao
MS
The hell with some crummy 40-60 foot 'boat'. When can I pick up a 600+
40,000 ton cruise ship for peanuts?
Unit472
Ask Dubai, they just got the QE2 and are turning it into a casino...
crispy,
"he is trying to sell his $1 million dollar boat with no success...Buy high and sell low.."
My understanding is that the damn up the river is due to fail. Might want to hold onto that.
Nostrovia,
"nades writes:
Bob Dobbs(Unrated) writes:
"Posted this last night... but some people I know who make stained glass windows ... are booked up with commissions through March."
Bob thanks! At least I have a fall back plan if they stop building buildings in SoCal!"
Don't know if you're funnin' or not. But if you're not, beware buying a stained glass shop at a "bargain" price. They're losing the low end of the market to cheap Chinese imports, and the only ones making it are the ones who do a lot of commission work/repairs and/or have expanded into glass beadmaking.
Any submarines yet? Always wanted one; guess I'll have to wait 'til Uncle Sam starts 'walking' away.
That's it ... I'm goin' piratin'.
This guy has a "mansion" in Ventura on the water he is trying to sell...if the dam breaks he can move there.
Obama staffers look at ways to help the economy:
YouTube - The Critic - Forrest Gump 2: Gump Harder
local high end restaurant in my neighborhood was empty on Friday. My wife asked the owner if business was slow. "yup, but it will pick up soon".
I guess he has to be optimistic.
OT - my HELOC is down to 3.5%. Just noticed that since I don't use it anymore. A year or two ago it was at 7.5%
Market is losing steam...look for the PPT to have one more run before the action starts at 12:45 pst
As I'm sending out storage invoices for winter storage for boats. Your making me depressed with all this.
On the flip side....just remember when the neighborhood goes to *ell its alot easier to relocate with a boat. Keep in mind the Coast Guard is there to save you!
crispy&cole writes:
Rob - I know a very wealthy guy in town who just dumped his plane at a big loss (I thought an airplane was a good investment), he is trying to sell his $1 million dollar boat with no success...Buy high and sell low..
Ahh the "David Plan."
Seriously, airplanes will likely be great investments albeit with high carrying costs. If I read the tea leaves we are about to lose the entire domestic PA industry devolving to merely overseas and niche products.
There is no such thing as a "million dollar boat" unless you modify the phrase with; "that bitch of a boat cost me..."
The historically minded would do well to research the history of FDR's yacht.
Wooden ships on the water, very free and easy,
Easy, you know the way it's supposed to be,
Silver people on the shoreline, let us be,
Talkin' 'bout very free and easy...
Horror grips us as we watch you die,
All we can do is echo your anguished cries,
Stare as all human feelings die,
We are leaving - you don't need us...
(Crosby Stills and Nash)
Maybe pricey sport cars are next?
If they'd sell you a boat for $1,
I'd like to get me a Porsche for a buck! Maybe those Urban myths are not so mythical at all.....
KUWAIT CITY: Kuwait's Gulf Bank said Monday it lost 375 million dinars ($1.4 billion) as a result of trading in derivatives and other financial instruments, and that its board had resigned.
The bank, Kuwait's second largest lender by assets
Search - Global Edition - The New York Times
Unit472 writes:
The hell with some crummy 40-60 foot 'boat'. When can I pick up a 600+ 40,000 ton cruise ship for peanuts?
Ahh, the Exxon Valdez in "Waterworld."
speakin of pirates..
Somali pirates seize supertanker loaded with crude
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
this is crazy..being that it's full of oil...
Only boat worth having is this boat..
285 Conquest Versatile Walkaround
have a 22' outrage..no boat as stable in big seas with 4 dorado hook up...
Barley writes:
KUWAIT CITY: Kuwait's Gulf Bank said Monday it lost 375 million dinars ($1.4 billion) as a result of trading in derivatives and other financial instruments, and that its board had resigned.
This is our future. Everywhere.
Vega writes:
I think RV's might be on the same boat...
As stated above, people can live(squat) in their rvs.
But yeah, those and any other toys will be going cheap.
my name is elmer j fudd, i own a mansion and a yatch.
Barley' post: "....and that its board had resigned"
You sure it didn't say that the board was beheaded?????
The USS Enterprise in "Snow Crash"
BOHICA Baby writes:
Maybe pricey sport cars are next?
If they'd sell you a boat for $1,
I'd like to get me a Porsche for a buck! Maybe those Urban myths are not so mythical at all.....
The boomer bait is already crashing. A muscle car or blingbox isn't gonna meet reserve. It will be a very long time unfortunately before the low mileage 911 club racers and church going Maseratti bi-turbos are dumped. I'm not a snob, I'll be happy with a weekend S2000 because I know how to drive it.
"The board has resigned"...Interesting, you mean they take responsibility for their screwups over there? How totally unamerican that is...
You got a fast (boat)
And we go cruising to entertain ourselves
You still ain't got a job
And I work in a market as a checkout girl
I know things will get (worse)
You'll (get stimulus) and I'll get (healthcare)
We'll move (into) the shelter
(Foreclose our) big house and (steal copper) in the suburbs
hank to kashnkarry: throw the ppt that tranche of CDO's and that smelly SIV we found in the gutter on Wall St. Saturday. (sound of banks of hard disks chattering in anticipation) The kids have a long afternoon . . .
TV GUIDE PLANS TO CUT 3 PERCENT OF ITS STAFF - NYPOST.com
TV guide is firing a bunch of people...I didn't know they were even still around
I urge everyone to try to find a "free" boat near them and go check it out. 97 times out of 100 its a rotting, stinking, hulk of trash that wouldn't be worth having.
comments your dog can roll in.
I don't use any filters, but man, some people tempt me.
I don't think you could actually bring down a whale with that thing.
"Somali pirates seize supertanker loaded with crude"
Wow. And they did it on inner tubes.
Nostrovia,
Rising tide lifts...Errrr sinking tide sinks all....ships. "This sucker is going down." GWB-That was his first correct statement of the entire presidency. The ecomomic fix is like a WMD...They just can't find it.
Interesting, you mean they take responsibility for their screwups over there? How totally unamerican that is...
Comrade Kristina
Yup they are capital pig dogs. Here we pay people bonuses to screw up. Thank God for socialism.
Have to admit that I took the family out to Black Angus for the 15th wedding anniversary (we had a gift card for it) on OCt. 30th, a Thursday.
Okay, it is BA and it was the day before Halloween, however, it was DEAD!
Maybe 5-6 tables in use at any given time during the 2.5 hrs. we were there. It was so quiet, it was spooky. One whole half of the restaurant was closed/empty. Really sad. I don't ask if it was normal, but let's just say if that is the norm, it will be gone soon.
OCDAN, Black Angus where?
re: Peter Schiff -- he's been right, but glod is down 20%. Everybody is right, it just depends on the timing.
Rob Dawg writes:
BOHICA Baby writes:
Maybe pricey sport cars are next?
Sadly, wasn't it last week the world's largest exotic car dealer, located in Santa Ana, Ca went TU?
How sad that the capital of poor mortgage vehicles (THE OC) couldn't keep this place in bidness.
What's next Fletcher Jones?
Really sad. I don't ask if it was normal, but let's just say if that is the norm, it will be gone soon.
The one in my town closed about a month ago. They're still building a massive mall right down the street, with lots of new dining. Sigh...
Rob Dawg,
be careful lumping muscle cars in with the rest of the bling; an old 60s hot rod that's easy to work on, needs no inspection, parts are cheap and plentiful, built to last. Seems like a valuable asset to me.
Comrade Kristina writes:
OCDAN, Black Angus where?
Comrade Kristina | 11.17.08 - 1:33 pm | #
The one right off the 5 at the Lake Forest exit. It sits in a small mall area next to the OC Credit Union.
Mal that's a cover of Jefferson Airplane.
This is simply not sustainable. Poor FL residents!
Energy costs
Progress Energy bills will increase 25 percent in January to pay for the rising cost of fuel and the early stages of its $17-billion nuclear plant. Tampa Electric bills will rise 12 percent to pay for fuel, with an additional increase possible in May.
Financial squeeze is on, all over the world - St. Petersburg Times
We have one here in Panama City, that's why I asked. I thought maybe you lived here.
Sam Dimond writes:
I urge everyone to try to find a "free" boat near them and go check it out. 97 times out of 100 its a rotting, stinking, hulk of trash that wouldn't be worth having.
So 2005. Those trophy barges have been sucking the lifeblood from boomers since. They'd never let their investment depreciate. Assets only go up.
Sadly, wasn't it last week the world's largest exotic car dealer, located in Santa Ana, Ca went TU?
...What's next Fletcher Jones? - OCDan
CARS 101 in Oxnard announced last week.
Barley, you got that right. They let GulfPower have an emergency rate hike back in the Spring of 16 or 17 percent and now are letting them hike it another 9 percent in January. Didn't the commodities market plummet?
OT?
In 1926, William "Big Bill" Dwyer was convicted of trying to bribe a coast guard official and sentenced to 2 years in prison. Italian Boss and Dwyer ally, Francesco Castiglia, who changed his name to Frank Costello once he became involved with the Irish Combine, stepped up to take control of Bill Dwyer's operations, Costello was helped by Dwyer associate, the Irish Boss of Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, Charles "Vannie" Higgins, who was said to be second only to Bill Dwyer in the rumrunning business. Vannie Higgins was called "Brooklyn's Last Irish Boss" and controlled the Brooklyn waterfront and its Irish stevedores during Prohibition. He had a small fleet of speedboats and airplanes he used to control the rumrunning and liquor smuggling on the Long Island coast.
Privateer Gerkinov - and dont forget you can park you RV at WalMart stores during off business hours - they actually encourage it! So, its free land for a few hours.
Progress Energy bills will increase 25% in January... to pay our 6.25% dividend.
Have to agree w/the poster above that the older 60s models may be keepers.
Unless you are in the Buffet range, what good is a Lamborghini? I mean if you make 250K, that is anywhere from 2-3 yrs. of your gross salary. That is just nutso, unless you get a windfall somewhere or have saved every penny you earned for several years.
Even then upkeep has got to hurt.
What does an oil change involve in time and money on one of those monsters.
You can't just take that thing to Jiffy Lube. I'm just sayin'!
Sure everyone has this but just in case you play the market..
Mutual funds facts about ind.stocks...
Mffais Home Page
the top 10's are worth the look...
cheers to all got to sell something now...
The SEC is absurd:
"SEC FILES INSIDER TRADING CHARGES AGAINST MARK CUBAN
Washington, D.C., Nov. 17, 2008 - The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Dallas entrepreneur Mark Cuban with insider trading for selling 600,000 shares of the stock of an Internet search engine company on the basis of material, non-public information concerning an impending stock offering...The Commission's complaint, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, alleges that in June 2004, Mamma.com Inc. invited Cuban to participate in the stock offering after he agreed to keep the information confidential. The complaint further alleges that Cuban knew that the offering would be conducted at a discount to the prevailing market price and that it would be dilutive to existing shareholders...Within hours of receiving this information, according to the complaint, Cuban called his broker and instructed him to sell Cuban's entire position in the company...Insider trading cases are a high priority for the Commission. This case demonstrates yet again that the Commission will aggressively pursue illegal insider trading whenever it occurs," said Linda Chatman Thomsen, Director of the SEC's Division of Enforcement."
They waited four years to charge him and then have the nerve to say that insider trading is a priority? Insane.
Barley,
Sounds like another money sink reducing funds available for US Treasury purchases...
Sam Dimond writes:
Rob Dawg,
be careful lumping muscle cars in with the rest of the bling; an old 60s hot rod that's easy to work on, needs no inspection, parts are cheap and plentiful, built to last. Seems like a valuable asset to me.
Agreed. An SS "driver" is valuable even at 11mpg but I wasn't clear. I was talking about the body off restos that are flooding the market no-bid at $18.5k nevermind meeting reserve after undergoing $60k rejuvenation treatments.
Re Rob Dawg and Yachts...
USS Potomac (AG-25) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
$15,000 and it can drug smuggle... LOL!
When are companies ever going to hire again? I mean what could spark/start a recovery?
This is bad.
Its amusing now to some extent joking about boats, but its going to get bad, people will lose important items like the ability to buy food and then it won't be amusing to anybody.
B=bring
O=out
A=another
T=thousand
By the mid-1920s, Higgins' rum-running operations included a fleet of taxis and loading trucks, as well as several planes and numerous speedboats which were used in smuggling alcohol into the United States from Canada (one of which, the Cigarette, was described as "the fastest rum-runner in New York waters").
It looks like the next hurricane season you will see a lot of boats on trailers heading towards the water rather than pulling them out of the water to safety.
nades writes:
Re Rob Dawg and Yachts...
$15,000 and it can drug smuggle... LOL!
I can do better:
Rutan Long-EZ - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
And it is invisible to radar.
One thing we have not yacked about is how charitable giving might shrink in the coming months...sorry, O/T
with the credit freeze farmers may loose the ability to plant and grow food. then its game over, I guess
So, Cuban is the one who will take the fall for Wall Street?
What a joke!!!!!!!!!!!
Going after this guy. They should start by going after themselves for dereliction of duties the past 25 years!
I am so disgusted by this and trust me I am not a Maverick or Cuban fan. It just makes me puke.
It is alot like the San Jose mayor asking for 14 bil so he can negotiate down to what he really needs.
Here, we have Cuban getting reamed when we should be going after the Jack (Don't call me John) Welch's of the world.
If famine stalks the land the national
epidemic of obesity and diabetes will end and Doctors can dust off the old
medical text books and read up on ricketts, pellegra and hookworms.
Nope...muscle cars are the next bubble...already happening in some cases. When you saw prices for anything with a hemi in it fetching over $330k that was the sign.
Most people have no idea that "mopar" means more parts......expensive ones too.
Said it before....muscle cars (most of them) are the Ferrari testarossa's of this generation.
I know of several examples of late 80's Testa's being sold for well over $1m....can get one for about 80K (in really good shape) now.
The Hedge Fund ascent over the last 5 year's made sure that the next popping bubble (in auto's) will be in 60's and 70's muscle cars. I twill really be obvious this time next year. Count on it.
Ciao
MS
LOL! The very first commenter beat me to it. Should be "swim away".
America will not stand for this SEC nonsense. Mark Cuban was on Dancing with the Stars! Everyone knows there are no evil people on Dancing with the Stars!
All right, where's Shnaps? He said he made his rep finding someone to move repo'd boats.
That was a in a previous job. Repo'd boats take a HUGE haircut. The bigger the boat, the larger the loss. Case in point, my pal Latrell Sprewell's vessel, "Milwaukee's Best", which fetched $856,000 at auction. He still owed $1,300,000 at the time - dunno what he paid for it.
Even I couldn't have gotten much more than that for that monstrosity.
EHP (evilhenrypaulson):
If you are around I would like to ask an earnest question about a comment you made a couple days ago. It was in regard to Switzerland being at the front of the line for a currency/banking attack.
I agree that the Swiss are in trouble. However, I am not knowledgeable enough to know what the spells for their currency (Swiss Franc). Earlier in the year the CHF was following the JPY as riskier currencies were falling. More recently, the CHF is now following the Euro lower --- clearly not benefiting from carry unwind like the JPY. When Swiss Banking takes the next major hit, do you think the CHF continues to follow the Euro lower? It seems the CHF is even in a worse position than the Euro and GBP as Swiss interest rates are pretty low. In any case, any thoughts/comments you could provide would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.
Bilbo | 11.17.08 - 1:29 pm | #
Nice update of Tracy Crashman ..
I'm underwater with my boat? Noah's gonna be pissed when he finds out we borrowed against the ark, securitized, it and sold it to Babylonians.
Mal,
Kim Kardashian has an evil backside...
but as much rhythm as a 2x4
How does that saying go?
If it floats, flys, or .ucks rent it don' buy it.
Barley writes:
Privateer Gerkinov - and dont forget you can park you RV at WalMart stores during off business hours - they actually encourage it! So, its free land for a few hours.
Forget the parking lot, they could set up right inside the vacated Circuit City next door.
If it floats, flys, or .ucks rent it don' buy it.
Anonymous
You sir, owe me a keyboard. Bravo.
Hey...Castroneves got indicted for tax fraud. Tried to get it held off to next Nov. Penske is also tied into it as well...depositing paychecks into a Panama Bank sort of makes you part of it.
$750k is mouse nuts to Cuban.....he's stupid for doing it....don't these people understand write-offs? Apparently not....
He should be jailed for being a total idiot....
Ciao
MS
I saw a board in front of a decent restaurant in Corona Del Mar last week.
"Eat! else we both would starve"
Dawg--I have a client in the business, who now can't get reserve prices. Specializes in 57 58 Chevies.
6 months ago, he swore to me that antique car mavens would never stop buying cars.
So he's planning to just do regular repairs.
he's stupid for doing it....
He may not have. This is the bush admin, remember? Odds are that it's payback.
believe me......that's going to cost cuban ALOT more then the $750k he thinks he saved by selling in front of a secondary.
ALOT more....
Ciao
MS
Dawg--I have a client in the business, who now can't get reserve prices. Specializes in 57 58 Chevies.
I watch some of those car auction shows that have been popping up on the cable channels and lament on how the auto industry just missed out on it's own opportunity at superbubble glory.
We could have had 1970s Trans Ams selling for $500,000.
Oh what could have been...
Had a big cruiser on the river in Wisc. for 5 years. For gas, ins, payment, slip, storage/winter, repairs etc average cost was 2k Month for 12 months.
Not bad for a 3 month season. Comes to 8k per season month Best advice: find a friend who has one.
Starter Nordhavn owners brave the building swell with buffett in their hearts:
A Nordhavn owner's letter to PAE
I really like this chinese made fiberglass wonder. Range 3000-infinite nautical miles.
Nordhavn
My friend is the manager of a very nice, very well known restaurant in Berkeley, CA.
I asked him about the hard numbers in terms of covers the restaurant is doing.
Weekdays before the depression ran about 80-90 covers. Now they are doing 60-70.
Weekends haven't lost as much percentage-wise, but are down from 130-150 covers to about 110-130.
Just anecdotal, though.
My father in law has fully restored 65 Mustang.
I don't think he was even aware that there was a muscle car bubble.
what's the opening bid on a pardon?
lawyerliz writes:
Dawg--I have a client in the business, who now can't get reserve prices. Specializes in 57 58 Chevies.
6 months ago, he swore to me that antique car mavens would never stop buying cars.
I went to the prom by driving a 1929 Packard 626. The "sunny day cars" were a 1919/20 Buick and a 1940 Bantam (Hollywood convertible 1 of 6 produced). I say this because it may lend some small credence to my comments.
There are several overlapping markets. Classic, historical, exotic and speciality and special interest. Historicals are fast going to museums. Classics still live but the rest are dead assets rolling.
As a lad, I remember watching old car races on the sand in Daytona and Ormond Beach.
Too bad they knocked down the old car museum.
Stanley Steamers were neat.
Rockso: are you a cardiologist? I think I know you. If I do know you, you're the guy who gave me a big wave surfboard shaped and ridden by Gerry Lopez.
I'm sure this has been posted here already but I will do it again just in case. Could be the excuse for the SEC's investigation on Mark Cuban.. a little political payback?
Announcing BailoutSleuth.com « blog maverick
We could have had 1970s Trans Ams selling for $500,000
I had a paper stock like that once, but alas, it eventually sold for 1/10th that to the takeover company.
Luckily, I didn't spend any of it until I actually had in my hands, (unlike many of my co-workers).
God, it sucks being interview by kids who read great, deep meaning into "binary tree".
Sorry, I don't code that stuff anymore, I CUT AND PASTE from the Internet because I'm not a FRICKING SUPER GENIUS.
JESUS CHRIST, the stupidity is awesome.
Isee on Craiglist dozens of muscle cars at 50% off last year prices. Each time I say, "that's the one I want",another one comes up.
Deflation is upon us.
Broward, decaf, stat.
Uncle Billy: Naw, I am just some anonymous schmoe on the interwebs.
You could be talking over $3K installed for a single window.
Windows are home improvement and a long term investment with a hoped for return when the home sells. I think it's a little outside discretionary spending.
Wealthy people do feel guilty spending when everyone around them is struggling. They also on some level also believe it can all go away and maybe they didn't really deserve to be rich.
A good comparison is SUV drivers, ask yourself if you felt guilty when the gas prices were soaring and global warming stories were all the rage.People are people.
Rich people are different, they have more money.
rockso, that's okay I was just using you to brag that I had a surfboard shaped and ridden by gerry lopez. I'm bragging because it's my birthday today and it's the only way I'll get the recognition I need.
The Nimitz in a high speed turn. Twin reactors, each generating about 600 megawatts.
The USS Enterprise eight(8) reactors capable of speeds upwards of 55knots.
My kind of boats, worked on both.
http://www.navsource.org/archives/02/026824.jpg
Walking away from Banks. 2 failed last week, in Russia. Russia and the states that used to be called Eastern Europe are of interest right now. Not only because of the IMF injections but as money flows out, reserves are used to support the local currency - Russia spent 16B last week defending its currency. But smaller states just dont have the ability.
Anyway here is the banking news from Russian source..
"The Central Bank said Friday that it had taken away the banking license of midsized Lefco and put the Deposit Insurance Agency in charge of Electronica bank.
Lefco had its license revoked for "not fulfilling federal laws that govern banking activity, as well as Central Bank rules" and "the inability to meet creditors' demands," the Central Bank said. It also said Electronica had inadequate liquidity to meet its depositors' and creditors' demands.
Both banks are ranked among Russia's largest 200 lenders.
The Deposit Insurance Agency's functions were expanded in October to provide support to failing banks. The financial crisis and credit crunch have dried up liquidity and created general mistrust among the country's roughly 1,200 banks, most of which are tiny."
Don't know if the three "F" rule was posted above. Anyways, If it Flys, Floats, or Fu#%s it's better to rent it.
Uncle billy,
Happy b-day..now go ride that gun...
if g.lopez shaped it, it's made for Padang Padang, Pipeline or Grajagan...
waves are fun at Ocean beach today...
Receding tides sink most boats.
Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me. F. Scott Fitzgerald
Happy Birthday Uncle Billy!
YouTube - Happy Birthday - The Beatles
asked about oil changes on exotics..
Some mid-70's Ferrari's you have to take off the whole top side of the engine to even get to the oil filter. In some cases it's a three day job....
Just to change the oil...
Ciao
MS
Can the USS Enterprise really do 55 knots? That is almost unbelievable...
JT writes:
Don't know if the three "F" rule was posted above. Anyways, If it Flys, Floats, or Fu#%s it's better to rent it.
Come to think of it,I knew a few that could do all three.
Here is what happens when you abandon ship:
Sedan on the Beach | BoatTEST.com
This boat was at one time worth (roughly)$1.2mil.
Time for Ark to Juneau, part II?
Paul Satko-The 'Ark of Juneau'
cd: I saw the ocean here yesterday it was glassy and ashy. Rode that board once during the winter of '82/'83. It was like a dream. Can't go out in big waves anymore; family doesn't let me.
MS writes:
asked about oil changes on exotics..
Some mid-70's Ferrari's you have to take off the whole top side of the engine to even get to the oil filter. In some cases it's a three day job....
Just to change the oil...
Ciao
MS
Ever change the spark plugs on an F body Camaro or God forbid, any muscle car with headers?
I've had to jack up the engines, remove motor mounts, go through the wheel wells, remove A/C and P/S pumps.
Don't get me started on AMC's- Any Motor Company- They used ford alternators, Chrysler trannies and rears, GM parts. I refused to work on them after my first Pacer.
Thanks for the birthday wishes!
Dr. Rockso writes:
Can the USS Enterprise really do 55 knots? That is almost unbelievable...
I'm going to quote a semi-serious cliche. Some here could tell you but they'd have to kill you.
There really are 40 year old secrets that are still secret.
"A rising tide lifts all yachts."
Discretionary spending contracting in Australia:
RETAILERS in NSW face the most difficult trading conditions in decades. Butchers, cafes and sporting goods dealers are selling a lot less, but supermarkets are selling a lot more as consumers seek bargains.
The latest snapshot of the retail sector, which makes up about a fifth of the national economy, came as the sharemarket resumed its fall yesterday, driven lower by banking stocks.
Economists expect the retail fragility to cast a pall over national economic growth well into the new year, despite the Rudd Government's determination to use spending to avert a recession.
But in good news for borrowers, the retail figures are likely to convince the Reserve Bank to continue cutting interest rates.
Consumers largely ignored the $7 billion worth of tax cuts in July, according to a report yesterday by the Bureau of Statistics.
Households, the report showed, are shying away from discretionary items such as restaurant meals and recreational equipment.
Little shops full of horrors but supermarkets buck trend - National - smh.com.au
Baron-
I had a mid 80's monte carlo ss that in order to change the back two plugs (one each side) you had to do the same....
The last american car I will ever own...
Ciao
MS
Uncle Billy, Polluted writes:
Thanks for the birthday wishes!
YouTube - Marilyn Monroe sings Happy Birthday to JFK
Here ya go.
Dr Rockso,
A ships speed (displacement hull) is determined by it's length, the longer the faster. Aircraft carriers are all over 1000' and all capable of 55+knots.
Obviously horsepower is required to obtain the speed also, but again the vessel speed is limited by length. This only applies to displacement hulls, not hydroplane hulls.
Q: What do you call 50,000 C layoffs?
A: A good start.
Surfing the key to going faster than the speed of light?
Surfing faster than the speed of light › News in Science (ABC Science)
More on topic: Didn't Duke K. or George Freeth or sumbuddy surf the wake of the catalina ferry?
YouTube - Kelly and Justin Wake Surf Duo
We are going to get a 500 point+ day very soon.....just a feel...no more...no less.
Ciao
MS
Red Tag Sale on Megayachts - The Wealth Report - WSJ
WSJ-Red Tag Sale on Megayachts
I had a mid 80's monte carlo ss that in order to change the back two plugs (one each side) you had to do the same... - MS
Give me the names of the '97-'09 4.6l V-8 Ford lead engineers and I promise satisfaction for the same reasons.
andy in nz - Any news in the dairy industry in NZ?
(not meant as a snark but: hehe)
Another area I'm following where prices are down is collectible books. There's a pretty cool meta-search site called Bookfinder that scours all the other online bookselling websites (alibris and others) to get prices for any book you name.
I checked a couple of books I've been interested in, and the lowest asking price on both (generally for a poor-condition copy) is down 40-50 percent from the last time I looked a year ago. And there are many more copies of both now listed available.
OT: From a previous thread: R&D and beancounters:
My experience as a scientist has been that, prior to research bearing fruit, beancounters see R&D centers as mostly cost with unquantifiable and unschedulable outputs (or at least with outputs likely to happen beyond the window of their stock option plans). The temptation to cut for short-term profit (or to stem short-term losses) is often irresistible.
Worse, if/when an R&D center is wildly productive, then beancounters see the often-immense value of the output, but take it as a given; now the R&D center is pure cost. It's "thanks for proving my fears wrong and coming up with a valuable idea -- and you're fired!".
Consumers are tightening their belts with 44 per cent of New Zealanders planning to cut back on discretionary spending for the next 12 months.
This is according to the inaugural MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Purchasing Priorities.
The figure is among the lowest in Asia Pacific. Across the region 77 percent of consumers are indicating plans to cut back.
Latest Personal Finance, Trusts and Mortgage News... | Stuff.co.nz
Sorry, last one... had to share
YouTube - wakesurf big wave behind power yacht by aurélie garcin
Rob Dawg (and all) Electric cars have no maintenance..well virtually none, anyway
Barley writes:
Rob Dawg (and all) Electric cars have no maintenance..well virtually none, anyway
Seen the SoCal wildfire inter-tie and primary transmission damage over the last 5 days?
"No maintenance?
andy in nz - Any news in the dairy industry in NZ?
A shortage of funds for borrowing is hurting farm sales, says the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand.
Institute national councillor and rural spokesperson Peter McDonald said there had been plenty of inquiries for good properties.
"The only limiting factor is the availability of finance," McDonald said.
Finance shortfall 'hurting farm sales' - Business - NZ Herald News
Still in a bubble, milk solid prices are dropping. Outlaws are Dairy farmers and things are ok for them, although fertiliser prices seem to be sticky!
Have been lots of farms converted to dairy last years, they will hurt as demand decreases, supply increases and prices drop.
We are screwed!
When valuing a boat, or stock, don't forget to check under the hood and wiggle the Consolidated balance sheet!!!
FYI: Explanation and reconciliation of the Firms use of non-GAAP financial measures on pages 3233 of this Annual Report. Managed results exclude the impact of credit card securitizations on Total net revenue, the Provision for credit losses, net charge-offs and loan receivables. Securitization does not change reported Net income; however, it does affect the classification of items on the Consolidated statements of income and Consolidated balance sheets.
Back On Topic just a little,
Went to Olive Garden Friday night (only because it was a b'day wish... ugh) and there was the same 45 min. wait as last year when we went. No slowdown there yet.
Back Off Topic, there was a poster here a week or so back who talked about storing 1,000 lbs. of grains in 5 gallon tubs. Does anyone know what kind of tubs those would be? I would think plastic would leach into anything after awhile. Just curious. It would be interesting to have a chat with the manager about ordering 1,000 lbs. of anything. But whatever.
We are screwed!
andy in nz
I thought there was a new deal for Big Sky. No?
We are going to get a 500 point+ day very soon.....just a feel...no more...no less.
The question is, will that be a 10% snap-back rally?
Electric cars are bigger polluters than big block mopars. Follow me: the efficiency of the energy at the socket in your house is less than 10 percent. It's burning coal, man. Do you know the environmental impact of large scale battery production? Unless you are charging with solar and wind and the batteries are as efficient as possible, don't even think about electric.
1,000 lbs. of grains in 5 gallon tubs
Outsider
Really? First, there is preventing mold. And, second, it can go rancid in a short period of time.
I would imagine if you had insurance on a boat it would be real easy for it to disappear. No?
I'll bet the buyer of boats now are the insurers, as many mysteriously sink within swimming distance to the harbor. Jus sayi
Sam Dimond: That's what Nuclear Power plants are for... and batteries can be recycled.
Really? First, there is preventing mold. And, second, it can go rancid in a short period of time.
Barley
It can also blow up if it ferments.
Re: Went to Olive Garden Friday night
Solar powered boats, wind power, save the eels!
That was on topic?
Kona
Yes. Olives arrive in America by boat.
To be fair, CR mentioned eateries in his article.
Sam Dimond writes:
Electric cars are bigger polluters than big block mopars. Follow me: the efficiency of the energy at the socket in your house is less than 10 percent.
31%. You are making several common but unsupportable assumptions.
Talking about disposable income, I'm still waiting for my favorite restaurants to empty out a little ... although not too much because I want them to stay in business.
I take it you arent one of those folks who spent a boatload redoing your kitchen.
IMO Eating out is a big waste of money.
Long term food storage - CK nailed it, need dessicant and reduced oxygen - nitrogen flush or poor boy it with CO2 from dry ice (don't let the chilly stuff get too close to the food, condensation and all that...)
Sam Diamond: "efficiency of the energy at the socket in your house is less than 10 percent"
Is line loss for electricity that bad? Because my friend designed turbines for GE and claimed that the efficiency of a turbine reaches 90% for a power plant.
Disposable income is becoming a thing of the past, as more individuals continue to live from check to check. I wish all investors had boats and vessels to sell, but lets face it, the majority of these individuals are sitting on a comfortable pool of wealth. We need to realize that
"the stability of the U.S. $ likely is dependent at least in part on said trading partners being willing to continue to both take and be willing to hold ever increasing U.S. $ denominated U.S. Treasury Bills. China, which holds approximately U.S.$2 trillion was reported in mid-September, 2008 to be considering a reduction in its U.S.$ exposure".
Quote Source
Perhaps the US itself should start selling their boats and working vessels.
Sorry kids, but XMAS may not happen this year, as The Fed is about to go under:
^IRX: Basic Chart for 13-WEEK TREASURY BILL - Yahoo! Finance
Does anyone ever look at 13-week bills, which hit 0.02 today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
U.S. Treasury - Daily Treasury Yield Curve
magnitude 0.09 in the 30 day t-bliss
1,000 lbs. of grains in 5 gallon tubs
Outsider
Really? First, there is preventing mold. And, second, it can go rancid in a short period of time.
Anyone remember who that poster was? My problem is it can take days before a post strikes a response in me. I'm ready to ask them a few questions now...