At what point do the Hotels begin to go under? How much do the corporations need to stay solvent? I would think they will be cutting staff, perhaps closing entire floors.
As one who travels 3wks/mo for business I must say that I am seeing a slight drop in numbers on some flights recently but hotels still seem surprisingly busy in San Diego (Ranch Bernardo), Tucson (could be seasonal) and Salt Lake. I keep waiting because it is a pain. These are mostly Hilton prop (doubletree, HGarden Inn, Embassy suites)...
Mayor Gavin Newsom has made a Tourism Improvement District a key part of his economic stimulus package.
The district could generate $27 million in its first year alone, and it is similar to a business improvement district, only bound by business type rather than geography.
Of that $27 million, $9 million would go toward much needed upgrades to Moscone Center; almost $18 million would be spent marketing and promoting San Francisco and its hotels.
The TID will ensure that San Franciscos No. 1 industry will remain competitive long into the future. We will be able to reach out to markets where weve not been able to aggressively compete in the past, said Joe DAlessandro, CEO of the SFCVB. What this new budget will do is still put us behind our competitor cities like San Diego and Los Angeles, but up to this point we have had resources far below what those markets have.
Anyone think the letters from the ticked off Congresscritters sent to HP had anything to do with the sudden midstream reversal? It could have been a warning shot across the bow of the SS Hanky Panky.
VIRGINIA BEACH'S 2007 YEAR-ROUND TOURISM GENERATED $78.4 MILLION IN REVENUE FOR CITY
From the article headline. Also mentioned tourism created 11,000 jobs.
Not great jobs but jobs. Cut that by 20% and it would hurt. All those beach towns...
It looks like Obama is going to have to save GM pronto. The Southern bloc wants to drive a stake through the Northern automobile industry. If my business was supplying GM I would be worried.
Harrah's Bondholders Get as Low as 40 Cents in Swap (Update2)
By Caroline Salas
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Harrah's Entertainment Inc. is offering to exchange its bonds at a rate of as little as 40 cents on the dollar for new debt as the casino company tries to push back maturities and avoid default.
Economists believe the US has been in recession since April and will remain there until the middle of 2009, according to a survey published on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
The bleak report by the Philly Fed confirms the sharp deterioration in US economic conditions in recent months as the credit crisis intensified and unemployment rose sharply.
The survey, based on interviews with 51 leading economic forecasters, is published every three months. Monday’s report said participants were “unanimous” in describing the US economy as being either in a recession or on the brink of one. Most said the recession had begun in April and would last 14 months.
It looks like Obama is going to have to save GM pronto. The Southern bloc wants to drive a stake through the Northern automobile industry. If my business was supplying GM I would be worried.
I wonder if Obama's at the "Oh God what have I gotten myself into?" stage yet.
To me he already looks like he's aged a few years.
U.S. Pension Agency Asks GM, Ford, Chrysler for Data on Plans
By Cary O'Reilly
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. agency that oversees the pensions of 44 million Americans said it has stepped up its oversight of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC and wants detailed data on their retirement plans.
Vista is another example of Microshaft's long line of inferior products pushed on the public. They still can't make an O/S near as good as Panther. Every IT guy I know refuses to switch over.
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. agency that oversees the pensions of 44 million Americans said it has stepped up its oversight of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC and wants detailed data on their retirement plans.
At some point we have to stop giving people false expectations about their retirements if we want to avoid a big "pitchfork and torch moment" when the Baby Boomers figure out the word "retirement" isn't really going to be a part of their future.
The PBGC said in February it had an accumulated deficit of $14 billion created by a rise in corporate bankruptcies, particularly in the steel and airline industries, and shrinking premium payments as more companies shift from traditional defined-benefit programs to uninsured plans such as 401(k) accounts.
I work in Danbury, CT. When I moved here in 1995, there were only 3 hotels in town. Over the last 13 years, there have been at least 5 more built (all larger than the older ones). I think the owners are in for some very ugly times in the next few years.
He will be President during an interesting time. Myself, I hope he is one for Mt. Rushmore.
Lets hope so, but my real concern is that any politician who does the "right thing" over the next few years may not receive credit for it for decades to come.
Hate to be so cynical, but right now it's hard with things turning out worse than what I thought were overly cynical predictions to begin with.
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. agency that oversees the pensions of 44 million Americans said it has stepped up its oversight of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC and wants detailed data on their retirement plans.
As I typed over a year ago ERISA is blowing in the wind.
Comrade Baron Von Helmut III,
They still can't make an O/S near as good as Panther.
Jobs just tooled, Free BSD. Ill take FBSD. Macs make nice GUI workstations though. Especially with FBSD servers.
I was at a conference last weekend in Anaheim near Disneyland and the Convention Center. I was at the same conference last year--same hotel, same weekend in November. (I wasn't staying at the conference hotel, but a cheaper place a block away but it was still the same hotel I stayed at last year.)
Last year I paid $110/night and this year I paid $80 and this time upgraded me to a suite. The parking lot was maybe 2/3 full, while last year it was packed. And there was a noticeable reduction of the number of families headed to Disneyland.
ew mega-hilton on San Diego bay opens Dec. 3. Right next to convention center. I know x-mas is not convention time, but you can get a room over the holidays for $100 a night.
I love e-con 101 in action. Increasing supply + falling demand= prices I can afford.
"Lets hope so, but my real concern is that any politician who does the "right thing" over the next few years may not receive credit for it for decades to come."
It is only now that Carter and Volker are starting to get some economic cred. I think. Once there is enough pain, is suspect that Voodoo Economics will be fully discredited.
Plus here in No VA they liked to build Marriots and long stay suites in the office parks.
Went out to the Fair Oaks area in No Va this weekend. Talk about Big Box central. Plus, every freaking road within 5 miles was "Fair" this or "Fair" that. Ridiculous.
Make sure you understand what the PBGC deficit actually is. PBGC is the largest private defined benefit plan operator in the U.S. They become the pension plan for companies that default on private single-employer or multi-employer (union) plans.
This deficit is the excess of the discounted future value of PBGC's liabilities payable to its own plan members over PBGC's assets. Actually, the deficit is larger now due to PBGC losses in the market recently.
It doesn't count any future liabilities that PBGC will have to take on from GM, Chrysler, etc. PBGC accounts separately for potential liabilities of severely underfunded or troubled plans.
Backing PBGC is not a "good faith and credit" liability of the U.S. govt. It's an implied liability. For what that's worth. While the govt. could agree to back any PBGC shortfalls, it also could cut benefits for current and future PBGC pension payees. It also could raise premiums, but that won't help much because there aren't enough healthy U.S. private DB plans left.
The Pennys parking lot at Fair Oaks is where a Union general stumbled into a southern patrol. He, and his men turned to flee on their horses. The General got shot in the ass and died.
Stonewall Jackson had a private memorial about 1/2 mi from there.
UBS, the Swiss banking giant, on Monday joined Goldman Sachs in saying that its top executives would get no bonus this year as public scrutiny of bankers compensation intensified under bailout plans by governments.
Guess the value of implicit ain't what it used to be...
Fannie Sells First Long-Term Notes Since September in Reopening
By Jody Shenn
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae raised $2 billion in its first long-term debt sale in two months, paying record yields over benchmark rates to attract investors.
The sale was split evenly between a reopening of five-year benchmark notes that priced to yield about 1.32 percentage point more than similar-maturity Treasuries, and three-year notes that paid a spread of 1.45 percentage point. The Washington-based company's last sale of debt maturing in longer than a year was on Sept. 10, four days after the government seized Fannie and smaller rival Freddie Mac and agreed to support their debt.
Fannie had to offer spreads today that were about double times what it paid in September to entice investors lured away by the U.S. government's plans to guarantee bank company debt and create competing investments that may carry a more explicit federal backing than for Fannie and Freddie.
The racing teams are struggling as sponsors either pull out or cutback and attendance at the races is off.
Of course if GM, Ford and Chrysler go bust they won't have any racing teams
at all save Toyota.
In the smaller venues like Bristol, Darlington etc. NASCAR weekends are huge economic injections for the towns. Having 100,000 people pour into
these little burgs but as NPR reported
last week in Atlanta there were 40,000 unsold seats. So even though the sport is wildly popular in middle
America it is becoming too costly for many to attend its events.
I remember the old "beastie" cartoon guy back in the 70's when I was learning programming. IMO, Linux systems are the most reliable O/S. I despise anything Microshaft. I've seen programs that have unfinished code, laiden with bugs, and software thzt intentionally disables and causes I/O conflicts with non Microshaft products. MIchroshaft got huge by suing everyone out of business and using gestapo like tacticts to drive the others out.
The longer term trend (since 1977) seems to be towards lower occupancy rates. That suggests the industry is overbuilt - too many hotel rooms chasing too few customers. They need to consolidate, go out of business, etc.
Using older MS products that are unpatched in a biz environment is like country people leaving there doors unlocked. Done all the time, yet someone always wishes they had not.
serf hopeinsd(Unrated) writes:
new mega-hilton on San Diego bay opens Dec. 3. Right next to convention center. I know x-mas is not convention time, but you can get a room over the holidays for $100 a night.
Serf,
I have a buddy who works as a construction manager for hotels downtown. They are hurting! Except for the few days a year they are full they are not even close to capacity. There is more space coming on line.
The majors (hilton as you mentioned) have all started lowering prices! It could get ugly....
But at least John Moore isnt building his hotels anytime soon.... LOL! (Anyone want to buy 49% of the Padres, 2xLOL!!!!)
The longer term trend (since 1977) seems to be towards lower occupancy rates. That suggests the industry is overbuilt - too many hotel rooms chasing too few customers. They need to consolidate, go out of business, etc.
The racing teams are struggling as sponsors either pull out or cutback and attendance at the races is off.
Same thing is happening to the BCS. Because Fox is strictly broadcast and therefore reliant on advertising, it couldn't match ABC/ESPN's offer. ABC has the advantage of passing on the cost of the BCS to its cable subscribers in the same way that it did Monday Night Football.
Cable subscribers would be absolutely enraged if they knew how much of their bill went to subsidize the NFL/NCAA football.
Fannie had to offer spreads today that were about double times what it paid in September to entice investors lured away by the U.S. government's plans to guarantee bank company debt and create competing investments that may carry a more explicit federal backing than for Fannie and Freddie.
citizen energyecon
I still havent figured out why their yield isnt the same as the comparable treasuries....
Seems like its the same guy insuring it to mee.... (meeeee)
The longer term trend (since 1977) seems to be towards lower occupancy rates. That suggests the industry is overbuilt - too many hotel rooms chasing too few customers. They need to consolidate, go out of business, etc.
Hotel industry better get a big union to back them like the autos or they may have a hard time ahead.
Nothing is going to happen that requires a decision in DC for the next 10 weeks. I bet even allocated money is not getting released. Pissed off too many people and now they are getting some payback. To bad, politics and duty to ones country are polar opposites
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration told congressional aides it won't ask lawmakers to release $350 billion remaining as part of the $700 billion U.S. financial- rescue package, people familiar with the matter said.
"Watch this recession take a bite out of MS. Why buy their software an operating systems when you can run an office on OpenOffice and *nix."
I hope and pray that is true. Hard economic times may cause big business to take a hard look at the license fees they are paying and give them an incentive to look for alternatives. I expect MS to slash fees to deter defections.
No sane IT department wants to migrate to VISTA as you do not know what legacy apps or drivers would leave you out on a limb and you do not want to support more than one flavor. MS collects their fee either way, but it is more about control as a failure to force a transition give WINE a chance to catch up and may make it cost effective to get off of the treadmill.
Guess that is the premium for the question of whether ALL the liabilities of FNM (and FRM) have really been taken onto the .gov balance sheet...when push comes to shove.
Regarding pensions. A month ago I posted info estimating that S&P500 companies had about $1 trillion in current liabilities for underfunded pension and other retirement benefits.
Bonuses keep getting paid with future retirement money. What a sham.
As I understand it FNM and FRE bonds are not guaranteed by the USG. The USG has stated it would not let the GSE's have negative equity but that is not the same as guaranteeing the bonds whose prospectus noted that they were not instruments of the USG.
It maybe a distinction without a difference in practice now but IF the USG had a funding crisis GSE bonds would not be as safe as Treasuries.
I think many people in investment banking had just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express the night before, so they thought they knew how to invest. Fortunely, there will be less people staying at Holiday Inn Expresses in the future. Unfortunately, I think Satanson stays at one every night.
Basel Too , I understand the 'implied' part, but given the last 2 months with Paulson bailing out everyone and anything, do you really think there would even be a consideration that we would not back GSE paper? I understand the theory, but in the real world it seems like free yield.
It's AAA and I believe one of the GSE's is a direct obligation- FHA?
They have no idea how much falling and slumping is ahead of us. I do not think they understand how fast the bad stuff is wiggling its evil way into the marketplace.
The National Association of Business Economists' poll of 50 professional forecasters released on Monday found that real gross domestic product was expected to fall 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter and slump 1.3 percent in the first three months of 2009.
He flies whatever route he wants just to keep qualifications. Based on West Coast. Has also been given management position. One more, and he (and family) flies first class with reservations for life. Credible guy.
They prosecuted Mark Cuban 4 years after the fact because he came out heavily against the TARP and also founded bailoutsleuth.com, a site designed to track tarp money and hold the treasury responsible for the use of its funds.
He steps out of line, powerful interests put him away or make his life hell.
As an IT guy, I didn't want to venture into Vista but was convinced to try it and forgo prejudice. I tried it - liked it - for home that is. I can understand IT depts not wanting to switch for all the unknowns, but Vista has been great so far (except the "improved" explorer).
Like all OSs, it can be pooched by users who don't know what they're doing, which is usually the case. First rule of PC diagnosis - assume user error.
MS Word 2007, on the other hand - what were they thinking?
.
Treasury Issues Debt Management Guidance on the Temporary Supplementary Financing Program
Washington - The balance in the Treasury's Supplementary Financing Account will decrease in the coming weeks as outstanding supplementary financing program bills mature. This action is being taken to preserve flexibility in the conduct of debt management policy in meeting the government's financing needs.
Guess the Federal Reserve's balance sheet explosion is going to slow down a bit. It doesn't say how much they will be decreasing the account by.
It's AAA and I believe one of the GSE's is a direct obligation- FHA?
GNMA is the direct obligation.
And under the "standardized approach" to capital requirements, MBS issued by the GSEs are still considered 20% risk weighted, whereas US Treasuries have a 0% risk weight.
"They still can't make an O/S near as good as Panther."
Every time I sit down and work on a Mac I want puke. They are ridiculously expensive, closed source/proprietary, difficult to upgrade/customize, slow as molasses, and crash all the fricking time. How do they get BSD to crash???
I am typing on a 16 gig 8 core with an uptime of 37 days. Total cost: $1400 - $749 dell T605 xeon quadcore, 340 bucks for ram, $230 2nd qc, $100 for nvidia 9600GT.
All our servers and workstations run *nix. We now pay zero dollars for software. ZERO!
@Angry Saver "Regarding pensions. A month ago I posted info estimating that S&P500 companies had about $1 trillion in current liabilities for underfunded pension and other retirement benefits."
This is an example of how the CR "chat room" can be a poor place to have a long-running discussion. Had AngrySaver posted in a forum (shamelss plug: <a href = "http://ic4mg.com>ic4mg.com!), there could be a long-running discussion of that idea, in parallel with other long-running discussions, without having everything all scrambled together.
In other words, a forum focusing on particular ideas is a valuable complement to the CR-comments' focus on particular times (whoever's here right now in the HaloScan "chat room"). As it is, I can't find anything by googling "pension liability angry saver", and his ideas are now lost.
But, I'd love to see that info, and I've got a forum it could be discussed in further.
@Basel Too "Cable subscribers would be absolutely enraged if they knew how much of their bill went to subsidize the NFL/NCAA football."
I was enraged at the cost/benefit ratio of cable compared to internet... we no longer pay for TV. Too much money flowing into college sports distorts the whole concept of "sports" anyway, IMHO.
Hotels in downtown San Diego offering 40% and more discounts. And the brand new 1,200 room Hilton Bayfront hotel is set to open in about 2 weeks... Come visit!
All thanks for the theories on the GSE vs Treasury Yield... All seem applicable and look like they would play a roll in the large spread. The comments are not dead!
ova: Ponys with Pillows writes: It looks like Obama is going to have to save GM pronto. The Southern bloc wants to drive a stake through the Northern automobile industry. If my business was supplying GM I would be worried.
Hopefully dryfly will comment on this... but my understanding is that the transplants don't want GM, etc., to collapse, as that would also take out many of the shared suppliers. With just-in-time assembly, that could shut down their own lines for quite a while while they set up alternatives. Many transplants use more US-made supplier parts than some of the big 3, who still do more in-house.
Watch the health of the suppliers... that's where the real action is.
17 Sep 2008 00:42:03 Been hanging out at Calculated Risk a little. This feels like a bottom, although of course it could also be the leading edge of a serious collapse.
On Monday, going into the close, I sold out my SDS and shifted to a roughly 10% net long position, mainly in the S&P 500 via index funds.
Very interesting info. Thanks. Racking my brain for an explanation as to how this could be the case. I always thought airlines made most of their money from 1st and business class travel and these should theoretically be suffering now...
Might have something to do with all those brand spanking new hotel rooms that were built everywhere over the last few years. Why not say "too damn many rooms were added" instead?
But your headline should scare more people.
They built tons of them here in Panama City over the past few years. My husband is an electrician and worked on several different ones. I kept asking myself who in the hell they thought was coming down here to fill those rooms. Same thing with the 3 million dollar "condos" they built, which are going bankrupt now.
@Comrad Wisdom Seeker
Sorry - I am not computer literate enough to leave a comment in the space you provided for the forum. I wound up starting a new thread. Also, the comment is directed to all that wish to have cramdowns - not to you.
"Very interesting info. Thanks. Racking my brain for an explanation as to how this could be the case. I always thought airlines made most of their money from 1st and business class travel and these should theoretically be suffering now..."
His take was superior cost management vis a vis competitors. As proof, he pointed out AA has never gone BK, and no COLAs on pension liabilities.
But sometimes insiders are the last to see it coming ....
Posted last night about private tour this last weekend at Irvine Co's $1B Pelican Hill resort in Newport Beach due to open Thanksgiving. They are having no trouble filling Villas at $750 a pop and up. Mariott may be hurting, but may not be so for 4 Seasons Aviara (Carlsbad), Ritz Carlton (Dana Point) or Montague (Laguna Beach). Dangerous to generalize in this type market.
Maybe its just the attraction of something new.... or just a matter of time.
"His take was superior cost management vis a vis competitors. As proof, he pointed out AA has never gone BK, and no COLAs on pension liabilities."
The retired CEO of AA, Bob Crandall (who is no fool), said he wasted a long business career in the airline biz - highest cost labor (starting with pilots) , highest cost capital equipment, commodity pricing, government-paced infrastructure, and constant exposure to energy. A pilot is the last person I would ask for biz analysis of airline(s).
Here's the pension and "other post retirement benefit" info. You can project current underfunding based on the equity, bond allocations listed - 65%, 35% etc. Very ugly.
....once the first chain goes belly up, the rest will follow. Before too long they'll be fenced off for the squatters and addicts preying on same within the fences. I think we already have a old Day's Inn Squatters Village in Vegas - kinda like vacation accomodations for the low-income permanently vacationing crowd.....
When talking about hotels - keep in mind that the company whose name is on the door isn't necessarily the owner. In many cases - it's simply the company that has the management contract. I am not sure that the hotel situation in California and nearby today is a great indicator. Because of the fires. Who wants to go on a trip when a fire is threatening your house?
Also - I am not sure anyone has really done the math on the little 3 automakers. PBGC benefits aren't the same as company benefits. There are annual caps on benefits - no COLAs - reduced benefits in many cases for early retirees - etc. You can't simply assume that the PBCG will pay everything that the little 3 (or the UAW) are obligated to pay - because it won't. Also - PBGC doesn't guarantee health benefits. So early retirees will have to scramble for health benefits - just like the rest of us who are under 65.
Didn't mean to sound gloomy re airlines, it is a fascinating business in lots of ways, but a hard place to make a buck as a tycoon, and damn near impossible as an investor.
The State Board of Administration, which manages many of Florida's public investments, has seen its assets plummet by $62-billion, a third of their value, in the last 13 months.
...
In the last 13 months, the state pension plan lost more than a quarter of its value, or $37.9-billion. It peaked at $138.4-billion on Sept. 30, 2007, and was worth $100.5-billion on Oct. 31.
(Taken from the St. Petersburg Times)
Those numbers have got to have the state employees on edge, and I'm sure that FL's "success" is the first of many--all?--of the state plans coming forth to acknowledge losing their financial fanny plus some...
"The retired CEO of AA, Bob Crandall (who is no fool) ..."
You mean the Bob Crandall who was forced out after his impolitic awarding of bonus and benfits to senior management after wringing concessions from labor unions ....?
I agree a "pilot's" take is a small data point, but a Chief Pilot with over 800 pilots operating under his authority I find a little more interesting. Caution would hesitate before adopting such a dismissive tone. But to each his own.
1929er writes:
"Didn't mean to sound gloomy re airlines, it is a fascinating business in lots of ways, but a hard place to make a buck as a tycoon, and damn near impossible as an investor."
Agreed, nor would I want to be misinterpreted as recommending such. But if I was an AA bond holder I wouldn't recommend panicking either.
Comrade V,
I think you are referring to Gerald Arpey - Crandall was earlier. He is/was a hard-ass, but not a weasel. I didn't mean to dismiss your friend (or you). I too have lots of pilot friends including a retired Delta chief pilot. I'm only saying operating the planes is a very different viewpoint from operating the business.
This was another successful prediction I made back around March for my then employer. Keyword search rate-of-change indicated that companies were already shifting away from Vista.
Ponyless in NJ writes:
"Comrade V, maybe this board is a gloomy echo chamber which does not accurately represent the current economic situation... Maybe it is not so bad. :)"
Ponyless, I'm not trying to lead anyone to any conclusions, simply filling in the mosaic of collective wisdom provided by all on board.
At my age and retired, I wander through lots of medical, institutional, travel, government, and blah blah environments. I am floored by the pervasiveness of Windows workstations and can't imagine how MSoft presumed all these could be migrated rapidly to a new OS after 7 years of cruft accumulated.
Fastcart11 - You can't talk about the hotel market as a monolith. There's no demand for a hotel room in Gainesville at $400/night (except perhaps during the biggest football game weekend of the decade). And if you doubt there is still money floating around for things people really want to buy - look at the secondary market prices for the 12/6 SEC Championship tickets. Note that both Florida and Alabama fans are football fanatics. Go Gators (smile)!
There's plenty of demand for the best luxury hotels in Paris except during low season. Note that high/low season varies in terms of weather (think Palm Beach in February versus Scottsdale in August). I do go to Scottsdale in August to visit family. Not worth spending $600/night to do that in high season (smile). Days of the week. Best deals in big city business hotels are on weekend nights. Best deals in weekend places like Las Vegas in weeks when there aren't big conventions are on weekday nights. And seasons. The time between Thanksgiving and Christmas is traditionally a slow time in most places because people like to stay home and get ready for Christmas. Etc. Robyn
P.S. on an unrelated note. Good news for savers now that so many companies are becoming banks. They are all competing for savers' dollars - with relatively high interest rates.
As for airlines - they are cutting back in terms of capacity. Probably permanently. Fuel prices are down - at least temporarily. There are lots of little extra charges here and there. I still don't think it's a great business - but I think the days of very cheap air travel are over (I am old enough to remember when a flight on a plane was expensive and something special - and I think we will be returning - at least a little - to those times). Roby
Yes, the airport is still being built, they just started working on it not too long ago.
1929er, I have no idea how Pier Park will stay afloat, from what I've heard it's overpriced which precludes many locals from going there, especially now that the paper mill is shutting down until at least January (if not forever) Merry Christmas to us...
Of that $27 million, $9 million would go toward much needed upgrades to Moscone Center; almost $18 million would be spent marketing and promoting San Francisco and its hotels.
I'd like SF spend some bucks getting the dirty, aggressive homeless people off the streets. Being hassled for money by people of miserable hygeine levels is not conducive to a satisfying tourist experience. Having my car broken into and looted didn't help either.
Kyle - I assume you were a tourist in SF. My husband and I had a similar reaction when we went there about 3 years ago. Walking from the hotel to the Ferry Building (about 1/3 mile) - I had to sidestep too much human bodily waste (apparently coming from both ends) to make it an enjoyable walk. Didn't have a car - so - luckily - I couldn't share your car experience. Don't think I will ever go back.
Last year we did a mileage run to the San Jose/Palo Alto area for 4 days. There was a lot to see - and the restaurants were excellent. Much nicer experience. We had dinner with a few "on-line" friends who live in the area - and they said they avoid SF proper for the reasons you described. Roby
re Being hassled for money by people of miserable hygeine levels is not conducive to a satisfying tourist experience.
If any health clubs go under, they could be reborn as public baths for minimal expense, mostly security guards. Our exponentially growing homeless population could at least be clean.
Punditry - Thanks for reading my seedling post at ic4mg. Which part of that post were you reacting to? (You didn't have to read the early threads!) Let me know what you do want to read. Better yet, post the sort of stuff you want to read, and hopefully others will too. It's literally an open book and we can make of it what we wish. Personally I will probably keep a trade-log thread for myself, but you won't have to read it.
rich -- am sorry to hear about the situation in your family. It's times like this that reminds me of the difficulty of helping people: that it's not just developing compassion, the desire to help, but also the wisdom to understand, out of all of our actions, what we can do that can truly help. Learning the former is hard; the latter, just as hard.
County ain't as bad as prison, at least. Maybe lesson learned. Keep hope, and wisdom, alive.
And yet I still can't find a decent room for less than $150.
Priceline?
"Forecast: 2009 Hotel Occupancy Rate to be Lowest Since 1971"
And how's a good ho supposed to earn a living.
Nostrovia,
maybe by the hour?
Nemo, you will just have to wait until 2009.
Good news for William Shatner.
At what point do the Hotels begin to go under? How much do the corporations need to stay solvent? I would think they will be cutting staff, perhaps closing entire floors.
ova --
No worries; Congressional Dems will surely bail out the hotels with TARP money.
Hilton, Marriott, etc. to become bank holding companies.
ova,
"At what point do the Hotels begin to go under?"
I'm curious as to when miss Hilton goes under. I think I'd pay for that.
Nostrovia,
If occupancy rates are going to be that low then airlines must be getting killed.
reality of no pony for GM setting in..down goes Frazier
I have a friend whose husband works for a hotel here in San Fran. They aren't laying people off but instead cutting shifts.
They aren't laying people off but instead cutting shifts.
I don't know much about labor law, but aren't there different ramifications regarding unemployment insurance?
lurker writes:
I have a friend whose husband works for a hotel here in San Fran. They aren't laying people off but instead cutting shifts.
For now they are. San Francisco was a big tourist destination. Lot of Germans and Brits there last year I noticed. Not going to be a lot this year.
I think the DOW chart did the broken Olde English 800 bottle pattern. I could be mistaken...
Nostrovia,
ova,
Yeah, I hate tourist season here. I always wonder why people come to SF.
1971 was a good year. Don't sweat it
As one who travels 3wks/mo for business I must say that I am seeing a slight drop in numbers on some flights recently but hotels still seem surprisingly busy in San Diego (Ranch Bernardo), Tucson (could be seasonal) and Salt Lake. I keep waiting because it is a pain. These are mostly Hilton prop (doubletree, HGarden Inn, Embassy suites)...
And tent sales? How are they doing?
I always wonder why people come to SF.
lurker
I love SF. Always tried to bridge some personal days along w/ business travel. Eateries are wonderful!
Just another way CA is getting kicked by the iron shod pony of recession. So much for those revenue projections
Barley,
True, we do have some good food!
SF is the closest you can come to Europe on the west coast.
Score one for MS, down 220 and change.
Barley,
"I love SF. Always tried to bridge some personal days along w/ business travel. Eateries are wonderful!"
Bridge...SF...Booyah!...I gotta start selling that suckah. I've sold Brooklyn's too many times.
Nostrovia,
True, we do have some good food!
lurker
It is one of the few places where resturants actually cook rather than buy and serve bulk food service.
And, a lot of good quality smaller places where people go for the food instead of wanting to be seen (aka LA or NY)
CR Companion
S.F. hotels to boost city's tourism funds - San Francisco Business Times:
Oc 22, 2008
Going to need to rethink this plan
Mayor Gavin Newsom has made a Tourism Improvement District a key part of his economic stimulus package.
The district could generate $27 million in its first year alone, and it is similar to a business improvement district, only bound by business type rather than geography.
Of that $27 million, $9 million would go toward much needed upgrades to Moscone Center; almost $18 million would be spent marketing and promoting San Francisco and its hotels.
The TID will ensure that San Franciscos No. 1 industry will remain competitive long into the future. We will be able to reach out to markets where weve not been able to aggressively compete in the past, said Joe DAlessandro, CEO of the SFCVB. What this new budget will do is still put us behind our competitor cities like San Diego and Los Angeles, but up to this point we have had resources far below what those markets have.
Aw, Microshit is crashing. They make such good shitware. There server systems are the bomb. And by bomb I mean they blow up a lot.
But I try to survey the Vista....yeah...right.
Nostrovia,
CR - In your graph the forecast num. for 2007 looks a bit low.
Misean:
Thank you for voicing the crap that is MS. Really brightened up my day to see someone calling them out for what they are.
Anyone think the letters from the ticked off Congresscritters sent to HP had anything to do with the sudden midstream reversal? It could have been a warning shot across the bow of the SS Hanky Panky.
VIRGINIA BEACH'S 2007 YEAR-ROUND TOURISM GENERATED $78.4 MILLION IN REVENUE FOR CITY
From the article headline. Also mentioned tourism created 11,000 jobs.
Not great jobs but jobs. Cut that by 20% and it would hurt. All those beach towns...
Anyone think the letters from the ticked off Congresscritters sent to HP had anything to do with the sudden midstream reversal?
Yes. He was about to have his ass handed to him if he went for the extra $350B.
Frankly, I'm wondering what devilishness bushies are going to come up with for this upcoming expiration...
It looks like Obama is going to have to save GM pronto. The Southern bloc wants to drive a stake through the Northern automobile industry. If my business was supplying GM I would be worried.
PIK bonds after the fact with a haircut - nice!
Harrah's Bondholders Get as Low as 40 Cents in Swap (Update2)
By Caroline Salas
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Harrah's Entertainment Inc. is offering to exchange its bonds at a rate of as little as 40 cents on the dollar for new debt as the casino company tries to push back maturities and avoid default.
Harrah's Bondholders Get as Low as 40 Cents in Swap (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Survey exposes depth of US woe
FT.com / World - Survey exposes depth of US woe
Economists believe the US has been in recession since April and will remain there until the middle of 2009, according to a survey published on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
The bleak report by the Philly Fed confirms the sharp deterioration in US economic conditions in recent months as the credit crisis intensified and unemployment rose sharply.
The survey, based on interviews with 51 leading economic forecasters, is published every three months. Monday’s report said participants were “unanimous” in describing the US economy as being either in a recession or on the brink of one. Most said the recession had begun in April and would last 14 months.
mykillk,
I mostly use Unix for servers. Can't get away from Winblowz for workstations.
But who wants Vista on their networks?
Nostrovia,
But who wants Vista on their networks?
Vista will be put in the same graveyard as ME.
Aw, Microshit is crashing. They make such good shitware. There server systems are the bomb. And by bomb I mean they blow up a lot.
But I try to survey the Vista....yeah...right.
You mean Mojave, right?
Watch this recession take a bite out of MS. Why buy their software an operating systems when you can run an office on OpenOffice and *nix.
New Subtitle:
Third lowest in half a century.
ac,
"You mean Mojave, right?"
ROFLMAO....
Bwahahahahahahahahahahaa!
Nostrovia,
It looks like Obama is going to have to save GM pronto. The Southern bloc wants to drive a stake through the Northern automobile industry. If my business was supplying GM I would be worried.
I wonder if Obama's at the "Oh God what have I gotten myself into?" stage yet.
To me he already looks like he's aged a few years.
hmmmmmmmm...
U.S. Pension Agency Asks GM, Ford, Chrysler for Data on Plans
By Cary O'Reilly
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. agency that oversees the pensions of 44 million Americans said it has stepped up its oversight of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC and wants detailed data on their retirement plans.
U.S. Pension Agency Asks GM, Ford, Chrysler for Data on Plans - Bloomberg.com
Leave the light on!? we ain't go no lights.
ac | 11.17.08 - 4:22 pm |
He will be President during an interesting time. Myself, I hope he is one for Mt. Rushmore.
Chrysler is staying very quiet lately.
Vista is another example of Microshaft's long line of inferior products pushed on the public. They still can't make an O/S near as good as Panther. Every IT guy I know refuses to switch over.
It's all about the $ for the licenses.
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. agency that oversees the pensions of 44 million Americans said it has stepped up its oversight of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC and wants detailed data on their retirement plans.
At some point we have to stop giving people false expectations about their retirements if we want to avoid a big "pitchfork and torch moment" when the Baby Boomers figure out the word "retirement" isn't really going to be a part of their future.
from citizen energyecon's link
The PBGC said in February it had an accumulated deficit of $14 billion created by a rise in corporate bankruptcies, particularly in the steel and airline industries, and shrinking premium payments as more companies shift from traditional defined-benefit programs to uninsured plans such as 401(k) accounts.
A deficit already of 14 Billion!!??
1971? Nixon's The One!
Can't wait for the old vegas to come back; free rooms and free buffets, just play the slots damn it.
I work in Danbury, CT. When I moved here in 1995, there were only 3 hotels in town. Over the last 13 years, there have been at least 5 more built (all larger than the older ones). I think the owners are in for some very ugly times in the next few years.
Plus here in No VA they liked to build Marriots and long stay suites in the office parks. The office parks that are now emptying.
He will be President during an interesting time. Myself, I hope he is one for Mt. Rushmore.
Lets hope so, but my real concern is that any politician who does the "right thing" over the next few years may not receive credit for it for decades to come.
Hate to be so cynical, but right now it's hard with things turning out worse than what I thought were overly cynical predictions to begin with.
"The Southern bloc wants to drive a stake through the Northern automobile industry."
They are not going to be able to do anything with the current congress or prez and I doubt the Big 3 are going to make it to inauguration day.
Chapter 7
Citizen energyecon,
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. agency that oversees the pensions of 44 million Americans said it has stepped up its oversight of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC and wants detailed data on their retirement plans.
As I typed over a year ago ERISA is blowing in the wind.
Comrade Baron Von Helmut III,
They still can't make an O/S near as good as Panther.
Jobs just tooled, Free BSD. Ill take FBSD. Macs make nice GUI workstations though. Especially with FBSD servers.
Nostrovia,
I was at a conference last weekend in Anaheim near Disneyland and the Convention Center. I was at the same conference last year--same hotel, same weekend in November. (I wasn't staying at the conference hotel, but a cheaper place a block away but it was still the same hotel I stayed at last year.)
Last year I paid $110/night and this year I paid $80 and this time upgraded me to a suite. The parking lot was maybe 2/3 full, while last year it was packed. And there was a noticeable reduction of the number of families headed to Disneyland.
ew mega-hilton on San Diego bay opens Dec. 3. Right next to convention center. I know x-mas is not convention time, but you can get a room over the holidays for $100 a night.
I love e-con 101 in action. Increasing supply + falling demand= prices I can afford.
Cynical? I know. I do not like that frame of mind. It is like spiritual poison.
I think Ford will make it. Every bit of news that GM may go Chap 7 must worsen their cash burn and sales numbers.
"Lets hope so, but my real concern is that any politician who does the "right thing" over the next few years may not receive credit for it for decades to come."
It is only now that Carter and Volker are starting to get some economic cred. I think. Once there is enough pain, is suspect that Voodoo Economics will be fully discredited.
Plus here in No VA they liked to build Marriots and long stay suites in the office parks.
Went out to the Fair Oaks area in No Va this weekend. Talk about Big Box central. Plus, every freaking road within 5 miles was "Fair" this or "Fair" that. Ridiculous.
I liked Carter. I don't say it out loud at all anymore.
Right Now,
Prevalant,
YouTube -
Nostrovia,
Do people really hate Vista that much?
Call me stupid, but I really like it. And it never crashes.
"I think Ford will make it. Every bit of news that GM may go Chap 7 must worsen their cash burn and sales numbers."
One of them should. Once the others are out of the picture, the survivors would be in a much better postion with regard to unions and suppliers.
Paulson should just pick the healthiest, and give them TARP loan to get them to the next admin.
My vista crashes constantly, it was great for the first six months, then constant problems.
Make sure you understand what the PBGC deficit actually is. PBGC is the largest private defined benefit plan operator in the U.S. They become the pension plan for companies that default on private single-employer or multi-employer (union) plans.
This deficit is the excess of the discounted future value of PBGC's liabilities payable to its own plan members over PBGC's assets. Actually, the deficit is larger now due to PBGC losses in the market recently.
It doesn't count any future liabilities that PBGC will have to take on from GM, Chrysler, etc. PBGC accounts separately for potential liabilities of severely underfunded or troubled plans.
Backing PBGC is not a "good faith and credit" liability of the U.S. govt. It's an implied liability. For what that's worth. While the govt. could agree to back any PBGC shortfalls, it also could cut benefits for current and future PBGC pension payees. It also could raise premiums, but that won't help much because there aren't enough healthy U.S. private DB plans left.
PBGC insured no state/local govt. DB plans.
Basel Too | 11.17.08 - 4:35 pm
The Pennys parking lot at Fair Oaks is where a Union general stumbled into a southern patrol. He, and his men turned to flee on their horses. The General got shot in the ass and died.
Stonewall Jackson had a private memorial about 1/2 mi from there.
Re: Vista
I cannot stand Microsoft but to me, Vista (once I turned off all the stuff it tried to do on its own) seems much better than any previous M$ release
UBS, the Swiss banking giant, on Monday joined Goldman Sachs in saying that its top executives would get no bonus this year as public scrutiny of bankers compensation intensified under bailout plans by governments.
- NY Times
Whats the over under on this really holding true?
"Do people really hate Vista that much?"
There is something about MS being able to turn off my OS at will (check EULA) that does not sit well with me.
W2K or Linux only for me.
China will buy/own GM before any bankruptcy
Guess the value of implicit ain't what it used to be...
Fannie Sells First Long-Term Notes Since September in Reopening
By Jody Shenn
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae raised $2 billion in its first long-term debt sale in two months, paying record yields over benchmark rates to attract investors.
The sale was split evenly between a reopening of five-year benchmark notes that priced to yield about 1.32 percentage point more than similar-maturity Treasuries, and three-year notes that paid a spread of 1.45 percentage point. The Washington-based company's last sale of debt maturing in longer than a year was on Sept. 10, four days after the government seized Fannie and smaller rival Freddie Mac and agreed to support their debt.
Fannie had to offer spreads today that were about double times what it paid in September to entice investors lured away by the U.S. government's plans to guarantee bank company debt and create competing investments that may carry a more explicit federal backing than for Fannie and Freddie.
Fannie Sells First Long-Term Notes Since September in Reopening - Bloomberg.com
NPR did a piece on NASCAR yesterday.
The racing teams are struggling as sponsors either pull out or cutback and attendance at the races is off.
Of course if GM, Ford and Chrysler go bust they won't have any racing teams
at all save Toyota.
In the smaller venues like Bristol, Darlington etc. NASCAR weekends are huge economic injections for the towns. Having 100,000 people pour into
these little burgs but as NPR reported
last week in Atlanta there were 40,000 unsold seats. So even though the sport is wildly popular in middle
America it is becoming too costly for many to attend its events.
Comrade Misean ,
I remember the old "beastie" cartoon guy back in the 70's when I was learning programming. IMO, Linux systems are the most reliable O/S. I despise anything Microshaft. I've seen programs that have unfinished code, laiden with bugs, and software thzt intentionally disables and causes I/O conflicts with non Microshaft products. MIchroshaft got huge by suing everyone out of business and using gestapo like tacticts to drive the others out.
Do people really hate Vista that much?
Call me stupid, but I really like it. And it never crashes.
Mine crashes all the time but in every case it seems to be due to video card drivers.
The longer term trend (since 1977) seems to be towards lower occupancy rates. That suggests the industry is overbuilt - too many hotel rooms chasing too few customers. They need to consolidate, go out of business, etc.
Using older MS products that are unpatched in a biz environment is like country people leaving there doors unlocked. Done all the time, yet someone always wishes they had not.
serf hopeinsd(Unrated) writes:
new mega-hilton on San Diego bay opens Dec. 3. Right next to convention center. I know x-mas is not convention time, but you can get a room over the holidays for $100 a night.
Serf,
I have a buddy who works as a construction manager for hotels downtown. They are hurting! Except for the few days a year they are full they are not even close to capacity. There is more space coming on line.
The majors (hilton as you mentioned) have all started lowering prices! It could get ugly....
But at least John Moore isnt building his hotels anytime soon.... LOL! (Anyone want to buy 49% of the Padres, 2xLOL!!!!)
....
The longer term trend (since 1977) seems to be towards lower occupancy rates. That suggests the industry is overbuilt - too many hotel rooms chasing too few customers. They need to consolidate, go out of business, etc.
What does this have to do with Windows Vista?
The racing teams are struggling as sponsors either pull out or cutback and attendance at the races is off.
Same thing is happening to the BCS. Because Fox is strictly broadcast and therefore reliant on advertising, it couldn't match ABC/ESPN's offer. ABC has the advantage of passing on the cost of the BCS to its cable subscribers in the same way that it did Monday Night Football.
Cable subscribers would be absolutely enraged if they knew how much of their bill went to subsidize the NFL/NCAA football.
Fannie had to offer spreads today that were about double times what it paid in September to entice investors lured away by the U.S. government's plans to guarantee bank company debt and create competing investments that may carry a more explicit federal backing than for Fannie and Freddie.
citizen energyecon
I still havent figured out why their yield isnt the same as the comparable treasuries....
Seems like its the same guy insuring it to mee.... (meeeee)
........
The longer term trend (since 1977) seems to be towards lower occupancy rates. That suggests the industry is overbuilt - too many hotel rooms chasing too few customers. They need to consolidate, go out of business, etc.
Hotel industry better get a big union to back them like the autos or they may have a hard time ahead.
Nothing is going to happen that requires a decision in DC for the next 10 weeks. I bet even allocated money is not getting released. Pissed off too many people and now they are getting some payback. To bad, politics and duty to ones country are polar opposites
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration told congressional aides it won't ask lawmakers to release $350 billion remaining as part of the $700 billion U.S. financial- rescue package, people familiar with the matter said.
Maybe I'm stupid, but why is there a 130bp to 145bp spread on the agency vs. treasuries when they are ALL being backstopped now?
Can't you effectively just arb the two and make a riskless trade -profit?
"Watch this recession take a bite out of MS. Why buy their software an operating systems when you can run an office on OpenOffice and *nix."
I hope and pray that is true. Hard economic times may cause big business to take a hard look at the license fees they are paying and give them an incentive to look for alternatives. I expect MS to slash fees to deter defections.
No sane IT department wants to migrate to VISTA as you do not know what legacy apps or drivers would leave you out on a limb and you do not want to support more than one flavor. MS collects their fee either way, but it is more about control as a failure to force a transition give WINE a chance to catch up and may make it cost effective to get off of the treadmill.
ades,
Guess that is the premium for the question of whether ALL the liabilities of FNM (and FRM) have really been taken onto the .gov balance sheet...when push comes to shove.
Or what - speculation invited.
Regarding pensions. A month ago I posted info estimating that S&P500 companies had about $1 trillion in current liabilities for underfunded pension and other retirement benefits.
Bonuses keep getting paid with future retirement money. What a sham.
The looting continues.
hotel+industry.
There's something humorous about those two words used in connection with each other.
Liz and Dawg:
Burke was awesome. First caught him as the coda at Sci Am.
Another GREAT show..."The Secret Life of Machines"
CE, no speculation but thanks for putting together that post on maturities. Great work!
......
Buy when there's blood on the floor?
Brazilian trader shoots self on market floor
As I understand it FNM and FRE bonds are not guaranteed by the USG. The USG has stated it would not let the GSE's have negative equity but that is not the same as guaranteeing the bonds whose prospectus noted that they were not instruments of the USG.
It maybe a distinction without a difference in practice now but IF the USG had a funding crisis GSE bonds would not be as safe as Treasuries.
Maybe I'm stupid, but why is there a 130bp to 145bp spread on the agency vs. treasuries when they are ALL being backstopped now?
Among other reasons.
"Trading was halted for a few minutes after the shot was fired on Monday"
I think many people in investment banking had just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express the night before, so they thought they knew how to invest. Fortunely, there will be less people staying at Holiday Inn Expresses in the future. Unfortunately, I think Satanson stays at one every night.
Maybe I'm stupid, but why is there a 130bp to 145bp spread on the agency vs. treasuries when they are ALL being backstopped now?
Negative convexity maybe?
ova: Ponys with Pillows writes:
"If occupancy rates are going to be that low then airlines must be getting killed."
Not American. Had dinner last night with one of their chief pilots for major U.S. city and they are feeling well positioned.
Basel Too , I understand the 'implied' part, but given the last 2 months with Paulson bailing out everyone and anything, do you really think there would even be a consideration that we would not back GSE paper? I understand the theory, but in the real world it seems like free yield.
It's AAA and I believe one of the GSE's is a direct obligation- FHA?
Comrade,
Does he fly the New York -> Mumbai route?
"If occupancy rates are going to be that low then airlines must be getting killed."
I think the airlines are one of the few industries that have actually scaled back capacity.
Also expecting unemployment to peak at 7.5
They have no idea how much falling and slumping is ahead of us. I do not think they understand how fast the bad stuff is wiggling its evil way into the marketplace.
Expired
The National Association of Business Economists' poll of 50 professional forecasters released on Monday found that real gross domestic product was expected to fall 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter and slump 1.3 percent in the first three months of 2009.
Ponyless in NJ writes:
Comrade,
"Does he fly the New York -> Mumbai route?"
He flies whatever route he wants just to keep qualifications. Based on West Coast. Has also been given management position. One more, and he (and family) flies first class with reservations for life. Credible guy.
Negative convexity maybe?
ac | 11.17.08 - 4:59 pm | #
I think it is negative convexity colliding with a rising concurvity.
They prosecuted Mark Cuban 4 years after the fact because he came out heavily against the TARP and also founded bailoutsleuth.com, a site designed to track tarp money and hold the treasury responsible for the use of its funds.
He steps out of line, powerful interests put him away or make his life hell.
OT topic -
As an IT guy, I didn't want to venture into Vista but was convinced to try it and forgo prejudice. I tried it - liked it - for home that is. I can understand IT depts not wanting to switch for all the unknowns, but Vista has been great so far (except the "improved" explorer).
Like all OSs, it can be pooched by users who don't know what they're doing, which is usually the case. First rule of PC diagnosis - assume user error.
MS Word 2007, on the other hand - what were they thinking?
.
I think it is negative convexity colliding with a rising concurvity.
ChangeYourDogCanRollIn | 11.17.08 - 5:05 pm |
I think it is just a bad moon risin.
I can't really keep up with the comments on business days, so apologies if this has already been posted
HP-1275: Treasury Issues Debt Management Guidance on the Temporary Supplementary Financing Program
Treasury Issues Debt Management Guidance on the Temporary Supplementary Financing Program
Washington - The balance in the Treasury's Supplementary Financing Account will decrease in the coming weeks as outstanding supplementary financing program bills mature. This action is being taken to preserve flexibility in the conduct of debt management policy in meeting the government's financing needs.
Guess the Federal Reserve's balance sheet explosion is going to slow down a bit. It doesn't say how much they will be decreasing the account by.
Ah ha...
Hotels & crisis have special relationships, remember here :
Waldorf-Astoria - The Passing Of The Old Hotel
I am rereading "Big Money" from Dos Passos, absolutely amazing the analogies listed in this masterpiece, with regards to our modern Air du Temps...
Thank you CR for your blog
I thought it was " a bathroom on the right"
It's AAA and I believe one of the GSE's is a direct obligation- FHA?
GNMA is the direct obligation.
And under the "standardized approach" to capital requirements, MBS issued by the GSEs are still considered 20% risk weighted, whereas US Treasuries have a 0% risk weight.
"He steps out of line, powerful interests put him away or make his life hell."
See how they treat a REAL maverick. TPB are out to make an example. Hope he came clean to the Fed's so he only gets a find. If he pulled a Martha...
Blackhalo | 11.17.08 - 5:10 pm
It may go away when the new admin comes in.
Re: Mark Cuban
If Mark Cuban is being made an example of, it's probably Bud Selig pulling the strings, not someone in DC.
The MLB owners simply do not want him buying the Cubs and this is lights out for Cuban.
"They still can't make an O/S near as good as Panther."
Every time I sit down and work on a Mac I want puke. They are ridiculously expensive, closed source/proprietary, difficult to upgrade/customize, slow as molasses, and crash all the fricking time. How do they get BSD to crash???
I am typing on a 16 gig 8 core with an uptime of 37 days. Total cost: $1400 - $749 dell T605 xeon quadcore, 340 bucks for ram, $230 2nd qc, $100 for nvidia 9600GT.
All our servers and workstations run *nix. We now pay zero dollars for software. ZERO!
/rant off
@Angry Saver "Regarding pensions. A month ago I posted info estimating that S&P500 companies had about $1 trillion in current liabilities for underfunded pension and other retirement benefits."
This is an example of how the CR "chat room" can be a poor place to have a long-running discussion. Had AngrySaver posted in a forum (shamelss plug: <a href = "http://ic4mg.com>ic4mg.com!), there could be a long-running discussion of that idea, in parallel with other long-running discussions, without having everything all scrambled together.
In other words, a forum focusing on particular ideas is a valuable complement to the CR-comments' focus on particular times (whoever's here right now in the HaloScan "chat room"). As it is, I can't find anything by googling "pension liability angry saver", and his ideas are now lost.
But, I'd love to see that info, and I've got a forum it could be discussed in further.
@Basel Too "Cable subscribers would be absolutely enraged if they knew how much of their bill went to subsidize the NFL/NCAA football."
I was enraged at the cost/benefit ratio of cable compared to internet... we no longer pay for TV. Too much money flowing into college sports distorts the whole concept of "sports" anyway, IMHO.
Hotels in downtown San Diego offering 40% and more discounts. And the brand new 1,200 room Hilton Bayfront hotel is set to open in about 2 weeks... Come visit!
"nova: Ponys with Pillows writes:
Blackhalo | 11.17.08 - 5:10 pm
It may go away when the new admin comes in."
I would not bet on it. They have pork/bailouts on the way too.
All thanks for the theories on the GSE vs Treasury Yield... All seem applicable and look like they would play a roll in the large spread. The comments are not dead!
Marriott in San Diego cutting entire departments - outsourcing cleaning, laundry, etc.
ova: Ponys with Pillows writes: It looks like Obama is going to have to save GM pronto. The Southern bloc wants to drive a stake through the Northern automobile industry. If my business was supplying GM I would be worried.
Hopefully dryfly will comment on this... but my understanding is that the transplants don't want GM, etc., to collapse, as that would also take out many of the shared suppliers. With just-in-time assembly, that could shut down their own lines for quite a while while they set up alternatives. Many transplants use more US-made supplier parts than some of the big 3, who still do more in-house.
Watch the health of the suppliers... that's where the real action is.
CBVH III
but in the real world it seems like free yield
Isn't that what got us into this mess?
17 Sep 2008 00:42:03 Been hanging out at Calculated Risk a little. This feels like a bottom, although of course it could also be the leading edge of a serious collapse.
On Monday, going into the close, I sold out my SDS and shifted to a roughly 10% net long position, mainly in the S&P 500 via index funds.
oh noooooooo
Comrade,
Very interesting info. Thanks. Racking my brain for an explanation as to how this could be the case. I always thought airlines made most of their money from 1st and business class travel and these should theoretically be suffering now...
re: Occupancy Rate to be Lowest since...
Might have something to do with all those brand spanking new hotel rooms that were built everywhere over the last few years. Why not say "too damn many rooms were added" instead?
But your headline should scare more people.
They built tons of them here in Panama City over the past few years. My husband is an electrician and worked on several different ones. I kept asking myself who in the hell they thought was coming down here to fill those rooms. Same thing with the 3 million dollar "condos" they built, which are going bankrupt now.
@Comrad Wisdom Seeker
Sorry - I am not computer literate enough to leave a comment in the space you provided for the forum. I wound up starting a new thread. Also, the comment is directed to all that wish to have cramdowns - not to you.
Punditry(Unrated) writes:
17 Sep 2008 00:42:03 Been hanging out at Calculated Risk a little
Where was that from?
Ponyless in NJ writes:
Comrade,
"Very interesting info. Thanks. Racking my brain for an explanation as to how this could be the case. I always thought airlines made most of their money from 1st and business class travel and these should theoretically be suffering now..."
His take was superior cost management vis a vis competitors. As proof, he pointed out AA has never gone BK, and no COLAs on pension liabilities.
But sometimes insiders are the last to see it coming ....
Kristina,
What is levitating that "Pier Park" shopping area at PC Beach?
Posted last night about private tour this last weekend at Irvine Co's $1B Pelican Hill resort in Newport Beach due to open Thanksgiving. They are having no trouble filling Villas at $750 a pop and up. Mariott may be hurting, but may not be so for 4 Seasons Aviara (Carlsbad), Ritz Carlton (Dana Point) or Montague (Laguna Beach). Dangerous to generalize in this type market.
Maybe its just the attraction of something new.... or just a matter of time.
Going over to Tampa to visit the son next weekend. Hotel room about 30% cheaper than last time.
"His take was superior cost management vis a vis competitors. As proof, he pointed out AA has never gone BK, and no COLAs on pension liabilities."
The retired CEO of AA, Bob Crandall (who is no fool), said he wasted a long business career in the airline biz - highest cost labor (starting with pilots) , highest cost capital equipment, commodity pricing, government-paced infrastructure, and constant exposure to energy. A pilot is the last person I would ask for biz analysis of airline(s).
If the price of hookers would decline the vacancy rates would improve...
I think I've been killfiled? Just had a post go "poof" after publishing.
Comrade Wisdom Seeker,
Here's the pension and "other post retirement benefit" info. You can project current underfunding based on the equity, bond allocations listed - 65%, 35% etc. Very ugly.
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/121905_500OPEB-report.pdf
"poof" it came back - glad this is just "virtual" time travel.
Blame haloscan.
Comrade V, maybe this board is a gloomy echo chamber which does not accurately represent the current economic situation... Maybe it is not so bad.
....once the first chain goes belly up, the rest will follow. Before too long they'll be fenced off for the squatters and addicts preying on same within the fences. I think we already have a old Day's Inn Squatters Village in Vegas - kinda like vacation accomodations for the low-income permanently vacationing crowd.....
ll,
Blame Canada.
Running Unix servers gives you sleep at night. Cuz they'll be up in the morning. And if not, they emailed and paged you already.
Nostrovia,
"flies first class with reservations for life. "
Whose life- his, or the airline?
When talking about hotels - keep in mind that the company whose name is on the door isn't necessarily the owner. In many cases - it's simply the company that has the management contract. I am not sure that the hotel situation in California and nearby today is a great indicator. Because of the fires. Who wants to go on a trip when a fire is threatening your house?
Also - I am not sure anyone has really done the math on the little 3 automakers. PBGC benefits aren't the same as company benefits. There are annual caps on benefits - no COLAs - reduced benefits in many cases for early retirees - etc. You can't simply assume that the PBCG will pay everything that the little 3 (or the UAW) are obligated to pay - because it won't. Also - PBGC doesn't guarantee health benefits. So early retirees will have to scramble for health benefits - just like the rest of us who are under 65.
Didn't mean to sound gloomy re airlines, it is a fascinating business in lots of ways, but a hard place to make a buck as a tycoon, and damn near impossible as an investor.
Any FL Pensioners in the House?
The State Board of Administration, which manages many of Florida's public investments, has seen its assets plummet by $62-billion, a third of their value, in the last 13 months.
...
In the last 13 months, the state pension plan lost more than a quarter of its value, or $37.9-billion. It peaked at $138.4-billion on Sept. 30, 2007, and was worth $100.5-billion on Oct. 31.
(Taken from the St. Petersburg Times)
Those numbers have got to have the state employees on edge, and I'm sure that FL's "success" is the first of many--all?--of the state plans coming forth to acknowledge losing their financial fanny plus some...
1929er writes:
"The retired CEO of AA, Bob Crandall (who is no fool) ..."
You mean the Bob Crandall who was forced out after his impolitic awarding of bonus and benfits to senior management after wringing concessions from labor unions ....?
I agree a "pilot's" take is a small data point, but a Chief Pilot with over 800 pilots operating under his authority I find a little more interesting. Caution would hesitate before adopting such a dismissive tone. But to each his own.
This is b/c hotels refuse to budge on prices....
Demand exists, but not $400/night.
Customer: "Hey, let me buy your stuff."
Hotel:"$400/night."
Customer:"How about $150?"
Hotel:"No."
Silence..No deal.
Talk about a weeird market.
USD purchasing power:
http://www.masternewmedia.org/images/usa-dollar-purchasing-power-over-time.html
1929er writes:
"Didn't mean to sound gloomy re airlines, it is a fascinating business in lots of ways, but a hard place to make a buck as a tycoon, and damn near impossible as an investor."
Agreed, nor would I want to be misinterpreted as recommending such. But if I was an AA bond holder I wouldn't recommend panicking either.
Comrade V,
I think you are referring to Gerald Arpey - Crandall was earlier. He is/was a hard-ass, but not a weasel. I didn't mean to dismiss your friend (or you). I too have lots of pilot friends including a retired Delta chief pilot. I'm only saying operating the planes is a very different viewpoint from operating the business.
. Every IT guy I know refuses to switch over
The current codebase for Vista is going away.
Microsoft Watch - Vista - Windows Vista No Longer Matters
This was another successful prediction I made back around March for my then employer. Keyword search rate-of-change indicated that companies were already shifting away from Vista.
Ponyless in NJ writes:
"Comrade V, maybe this board is a gloomy echo chamber which does not accurately represent the current economic situation... Maybe it is not so bad. :)"
Ponyless, I'm not trying to lead anyone to any conclusions, simply filling in the mosaic of collective wisdom provided by all on board.
the grind down goes o
1929er
Thanks for correction and agree with your general sentiment.
"The current codebase for Vista is going away."
At my age and retired, I wander through lots of medical, institutional, travel, government, and blah blah environments. I am floored by the pervasiveness of Windows workstations and can't imagine how MSoft presumed all these could be migrated rapidly to a new OS after 7 years of cruft accumulated.
Fastcart11 - You can't talk about the hotel market as a monolith. There's no demand for a hotel room in Gainesville at $400/night (except perhaps during the biggest football game weekend of the decade). And if you doubt there is still money floating around for things people really want to buy - look at the secondary market prices for the 12/6 SEC Championship tickets. Note that both Florida and Alabama fans are football fanatics. Go Gators (smile)!
There's plenty of demand for the best luxury hotels in Paris except during low season. Note that high/low season varies in terms of weather (think Palm Beach in February versus Scottsdale in August). I do go to Scottsdale in August to visit family. Not worth spending $600/night to do that in high season (smile). Days of the week. Best deals in big city business hotels are on weekend nights. Best deals in weekend places like Las Vegas in weeks when there aren't big conventions are on weekday nights. And seasons. The time between Thanksgiving and Christmas is traditionally a slow time in most places because people like to stay home and get ready for Christmas. Etc. Robyn
P.S. on an unrelated note. Good news for savers now that so many companies are becoming banks. They are all competing for savers' dollars - with relatively high interest rates.
pinky are yoy pondering what I am pondering?
I think so Brain, but how do you put that monkey into a rubber suit?
Knurd!!
Nostrovia,
As for airlines - they are cutting back in terms of capacity. Probably permanently. Fuel prices are down - at least temporarily. There are lots of little extra charges here and there. I still don't think it's a great business - but I think the days of very cheap air travel are over (I am old enough to remember when a flight on a plane was expensive and something special - and I think we will be returning - at least a little - to those times). Roby
Comrade Kristina,
Is the new airport going through as planned ? That
might help Panama city recover more quickly.
Yes, the airport is still being built, they just started working on it not too long ago.
1929er, I have no idea how Pier Park will stay afloat, from what I've heard it's overpriced which precludes many locals from going there, especially now that the paper mill is shutting down until at least January (if not forever) Merry Christmas to us...
Of that $27 million, $9 million would go toward much needed upgrades to Moscone Center; almost $18 million would be spent marketing and promoting San Francisco and its hotels.
I'd like SF spend some bucks getting the dirty, aggressive homeless people off the streets. Being hassled for money by people of miserable hygeine levels is not conducive to a satisfying tourist experience. Having my car broken into and looted didn't help either.
Kyle - I assume you were a tourist in SF. My husband and I had a similar reaction when we went there about 3 years ago. Walking from the hotel to the Ferry Building (about 1/3 mile) - I had to sidestep too much human bodily waste (apparently coming from both ends) to make it an enjoyable walk. Didn't have a car - so - luckily - I couldn't share your car experience. Don't think I will ever go back.
Last year we did a mileage run to the San Jose/Palo Alto area for 4 days. There was a lot to see - and the restaurants were excellent. Much nicer experience. We had dinner with a few "on-line" friends who live in the area - and they said they avoid SF proper for the reasons you described. Roby
re Being hassled for money by people of miserable hygeine levels is not conducive to a satisfying tourist experience.
If any health clubs go under, they could be reborn as public baths for minimal expense, mostly security guards. Our exponentially growing homeless population could at least be clean.
Angry Saver, thanks for the link!
Punditry - Thanks for reading my seedling post at ic4mg. Which part of that post were you reacting to? (You didn't have to read the early threads!) Let me know what you do want to read. Better yet, post the sort of stuff you want to read, and hopefully others will too. It's literally an open book and we can make of it what we wish. Personally I will probably keep a trade-log thread for myself, but you won't have to read it.
Was in Disneyworld last week.
The park was empty.
The outlet malls were even worse.
And the resturants, do not even ask.
But hey, there was no traffic.
And still they are building rooms.
Planes in and out were 1/3rd empty.
Orlando airport was pretty quiet too.
As far as PBGC benefit payments go I think they'll eventually cap to whatever the max social security will pay. In short, a big drop.
If you qualify for $20k in social security thats all you get from PBGC (even though their caps are considerably higher).
I'm planning a long Europe vacation with a bunch of family during Thanksgiving 2009, so this is welcome news!
Went short DIS last week. Made sense.
Been short AMZN, even better sense.
rich -- am sorry to hear about the situation in your family. It's times like this that reminds me of the difficulty of helping people: that it's not just developing compassion, the desire to help, but also the wisdom to understand, out of all of our actions, what we can do that can truly help. Learning the former is hard; the latter, just as hard.
County ain't as bad as prison, at least. Maybe lesson learned. Keep hope, and wisdom, alive.
I suspect the report assumes gas prices close to $4/gallon.
Check out the link on our blog. The industry is in denial. There is a massive RevPAR drop under way
Susan
This forecast is a load of rubbish in my opinion. For 2009 REVPAR willbe off 20-30% in the USA..... easy