SoCal Home Sales Highest Level this Year
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 11/18/2008 - 10:55am (250 comments)
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Dataquick's not that quick.
P.S. Never try to teach a pig to sing
2
Over/under on monkey vs. pig?
It appears that the breakdowns by zip are not posted yet. That's the part I study in the DQ numbers.
Quick, let's stop all those foreclosures so sales will plummet back into the abyss.
YouTube - Pete The Singing Pig
Singing pig!!
Rumor has it that the game was to secure a second home using current good credit, then walk away from the first home, destroying the now un-needed credit.
So many games and market distortions it is impossible to tell what is going on.
You can see the break down of foreclosures and short sales versus sales for Ventura and the SFV here:
Effective Demand: Short Sale & Foreclosure for San Fernando Valley & Ventura County - October 2008
You can also see pending counts weekly and preliminary sales counts at the first of the month to get an idea how things are going.
Animals Are Passing From Our Lives
Its wonderful how I jog
on four honed-down ivory toes
my massive buttocks slipping
like oiled parts with each light step.
I'm to market. I can smell
the sour, grooved block, I can smell
the blade that opens the hole
and the pudgy white fingers
that shake out the intestines
like a hankie. In my dreams
the snouts drool on the marble,
suffering children, suffering flies,
suffering the consumers
who won't meet their steady eyes
for fear they could see. The boy
who drives me along believes
that any moment I'll fall
on my side and drum my toes
like a typewriter or squeal
and shit like a new housewife
discovering television,
or that I'll turn like a beast
cleverly to hook his teeth
with my teeth. No. Not this pig.
~ Philip Levine
Does anyone do a comparison of gross dollar sales? It occurred to me that at the current prices, an uptick in volume might still be a decline in sales by dollar amount.
And to think these folks have no idea they might STILL be knifecatchers.
sdtfs
Gross sales for the SFV up to September:
http://www.srar.com/members/stats/SFVcomps.pdf
Geoff - But if these deals are being done in this tight credit market (tighter lending standards) this is a good thing - money was waiting on the sidelines.
"Use of FHA-insured loans allowing a down payment of as little as 3 percent represented nearly one-third of all Southland purchase loans last month, up from 2 percent a year earlier. "
These people are most likely an accident waiting to happen- fully ONE THIRD of buyers!
Did Mr. Bottom Spammer get out at that 842 top?
"And to think these folks have no idea they might STILL be knifecatchers."
Might?
Not!
did Lawrence Yun get his hands on that report? It seems a bit cheerleaderish to me.....
citizen energyecon(excellent) writes:
Over/under on monkey vs. pig?
Pig. I use CRCompanion as a positive filter, looking for my 'don't miss' guys and gals and a rough guide to signal to noise (rated versus unrated)
deb - It appears I was being delusional...and therefore optimistic.
An interesting article :
The End
by Michael Lewis
The End Of Wall Streets Boom - News Markets - Portfolio.com
BTW if anything, what's happening here should be seen as a defense of free market dynamics.
I.E. when government refrains from interfering with asset prices we begin to see the behaviors associated with a properly functioning markets return.
Just think if they'd allowed asset prices to fall back in 1998 as began occurring due to market forces.
None of this might be happening now.
For those who bought homes and intend to live in them: I hope you have jobs next year.
For those who bought homes as investments: I hope you're as smart as you think you are. But you may not be.
All real estate agents from the transaction poor areas must now be planning to migrate to San Diego.
Pig. I use CRCompanion as a positive filter, looking for my 'don't miss' guys and gals and a rough guide to signal to noise (rated versus unrated)
I use it to ditch the idiots as well.
Barley - if they can make the payments AND the terms of the loan were fairly stable (not another option arm, etc) AND they can keep their job, yes, it's a plus for the overall market, and a step toward overall movement back to equilibrium. For some folks, it will be a great thing, to finally be able to afford the kind of home they want in an area that will probably in a few years be decent again (once the foreclosures have cleared and the painted lawns get dealt with, etc.) Of course, if they are vulture investors, trying to snap these up to rent them, well, that does nothing for the market but turn vacant homes into established rentals, pushes down rents for a while, and keeps values depressed in those markets. We'd really have to know if households are buying these to live in them, or as investments. I think the making money on housing thing dies hard.
Looks like it's about time to ban shorting.
Current buyers will be next years "victims" that need a bailout...knife catchers!
"Southern California home sales rose unseasonably last month from September as buyers shook off gloomy financial news and took advantage of often-steep discounts. The median sale price fell to $300,000 - a 67-month low - as foreclosures once again accounted for half of all resales ..."
Isn't this due to the gov't mandate wait period?
Nostrovia,
10/08: 21,532 homes sold at a median $300,000.
10/07: 12,913 homes sold at a median $445,000.
How many homes would have sold Oct '07 if they were offered at a median of $300k? 40-50 thousand?
Looks like it's about time to ban shorting.
Every time I feel the itch to move cash into shorts, I remember who I felt in September when it turned out we were playing CalvinBall, not investing.
I remember who I felt
Um, heh
"When I think about you, I touch myself"
More debt, more loans, more servitude...more of the same.
OT- I wonder what will happen if the the world's economic engine can't spin the world's flywheel any longer 2,000 riot in poor Chinese city - Los Angeles Times
If any of these buyers are looking at a home as an investment, may they catch their knives with both eyeballs...
If they are buying at only a 30% discount in the overbuild far out burb type markets, they are toast. If they got 70% off, like you might get in stockton CA, you MIGHT be ok. It all depends on the pricing relative to what we were seeing in maybe 1998 for these markets. If you are still well over that, Id say you should be worried.
10/08: 21,532 homes sold at a median $300,000.
10/07: 12,913 homes sold at a median $445,000.
Hilariously, realtors should be happy as clams! The dollar volume is bigger in 10/8.
LOL @eric.
So the temperature is below freezing today in Florida. I trust the orchards were already picked, but I think it can also hurt the trees and depending on the severity kill them
Eric --
Music for you
LOL @eric.
Woohoo!! At least one person doesn't have me in their idiot filter.
(yet)
Are we lining up enough positive news to get a rally back up to 10,000 on the Dow? Just make sure to get out before it crashes again.
Geoff,
"If they got 70% off, like you might get in stockton CA, you MIGHT be ok."
If you're buying in Stockton, you're definately NOT ok.
Nostrovia,
Are we lining up enough positive news to get a rally back up to 10,000 on the Dow? Just make sure to get out before it crashes again.
We need to hurry up and announce the super-stimulus package.
As far as "hope they have jobs," it seems like nonpaying "owners" can stay in a house far longer than nonpaying renters, even without foreclosure moratoria.
If you're buying in Stockton, you're definately NOT ok.
Agree. Seriously, what are you going to do there? Commute to Sacramento or San Francisco?
Wow.. C is really getting hammered!
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/modified-indymac-mortgages-delinquent-again/story.aspx?guid={D8172601-FCE0-4F1B-A67E-1F5820FE5721}&siteid=yahoomy
"Lender Processing Services processes the 650,000 loans that the FDIC manages through its control of IndyMac. Company executives discussed what's happened since modifications began with analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods and the results are uninspiring.
"Industry evidence indicates that in a majority of instances loan modifications simply delay the timeline from default to foreclosure but don't prevent them from taking place," Nathaniel Otis and William Clark, analysts at KBW, wrote in a note to investors on Tuesday.
Of the IndyMac mortgages modified by the FDIC so far, 25% went delinquent after just one post-modification payment and more than half were delinquent again after several post-modification payments, Lender Processing Services told the analysts. "
Wow.. C is really getting hammered!
The Prince getting publicly flogged.
Eric writes:
Wow.. C is really getting hammered
I think some view his plan on job cuts as dithering and not accelerating to preserve the company. I think if he said staff cuts done by Dec 31st, many investors would be happier.
Someone needs to throw a TARP over C. Starting to stink up the place.
Nostrovia,
He cant go down with three barrels,not with three he cant. - Brody
Help me Obi-Ben Bernanke. Youre my only hope. - Princess Leia
I find your lack of faith in the Fed disturbing. - Darth Vader
No matter where you go, there you are. - Buckaroo Banzai
I've seen way too many Bond movies to know you never reveal all the details of your plan, no matter how close you may think you are to winning. - Azrael
Everything I need to know I learned at the movies.
And some who took arb positions on MER are probably not happy.
HSBC just stopped wholesaling loans.
Any thoughts w/METLIFE rapid decline lately?
If you're buying in Stockton, you're definately NOT ok. - Misean
I mean really. Think about it. You want to buy now in a place named after stocks?
Can I interest you in a pack of asbestos filtered cigarettes with cyanide flavoring?
" Hubbert writes:
As far as "hope they have jobs," it seems like nonpaying "owners" can stay in a house far longer than nonpaying renters, even without foreclosure moratoria.
Hubbert | 11.18.08 - 2:27 pm | # "
That seems to be true in some cases. But I assume, these days, buyers have to make an actual down payment. They actually have something to lose, unlike unqualified no-down buyers of a couple of years ago.
® writes:
HSBC just stopped wholesaling loans
link
anybody looked at HSBC paper lately..my eyes bugged out last week w/ the yields. I could not resist.
Regarding Stockton - Even if there were jobs there I wouldn't be caught dead living there, but that isn't my point. Im only talking about the relative discount. The commutes to either SF or SAC are atrocious, but some dumarses will do it.
LAM,
"Any thoughts w/METLIFE rapid decline lately?"
Uhhh...you can only play hide the toxic assets for so long?
Nostrovia,
(all less than 2 years, of course)
"Any thoughts w/METLIFE rapid decline lately?"
Uhhh...you can only play hide the toxic assets for so long?
It's gonna be really sad to see Snoopy sitting on the curb, with all his Red Baron stuff on the sidewalk next to him, after they foreclose on the doghouse.
Barley --
Could just be a forced liquidation of someone with a big position in the arb.
Deal is .8595 shares BAC for each share of MER. BAC price now $14.88; MER should therefore be $12.79; current MER quote $11.06.
Definitely does not compute, and I do not see how the Powers That Be could allow the deal to fall apart... But I suppose a renegotiation is always possible.
And I definitely know better than to place any bets here.
"Of the IndyMac mortgages modified by the FDIC so far, 25% went delinquent after just one post-modification payment and more than half were delinquent again after several post-modification payments, Lender Processing Services told the analysts. "
That is quite a sobering stat.
Barley:
Implode-Explode Forums :: View topic - HSBC closes wholesale???????
Taken from the previous thread:
OT:
I am curious to know how other sectors are doing out there. Can someone talk about the car dealerships in their area? We had 6 dealerships close up last Friday, and apparently, auto sales were down 66+% last month, and sales are trending down 33+% on last month's low.
Mostly, the dealerships that were closed were F & GM properties, but Honda, Nissan, & Toyota dealerships are seeing sales plummet...
Do these "sales" include foreclosures that were "sold" to the bank at auction for the amount owed, with nobody willing to bid a buck more? If that's still a big percentage of sales, I don't think the bottom has been reached.
Rob Dawg,
"Can I interest you in a pack of asbestos filtered cigarettes with cyanide flavoring?"
And if you lucky enough to be able to smell cyanide, you'll smell almonds.
Good times...
Nostrovia,
re C
Earnings Growth Rate -346.000 in the last 12 months.
Slap that on your resume!
Paulson: All right, ya hayseeds, it's a stick-up. Everybody freeze. Everybody down on the ground.
Joe6Pack: Well, which is it, young feller? You want I should freeze or get down on the ground? Mean to say, if'n I freeze, I can't rightly drop. And if'n I drop, I'm a-gonna be in motion. You see...
Paulson: Shut up!
Joe6pack: Okay then.
Paulson: Everybody down on the ground!
Ben: Y'all can just forget that part about freezin' now.
Paulson: Better still to get down there.
Ben: Yeah, y'all hear that, don't ya?
[Everybody lays down. Paulson looks at the now-empty teller windows]
Paulson: Shit! Where'd all the tellers go?
Teller's voices: We're down here, sir.
Ben: They're on the floor as you commanded, Hank.
Paulson: I thought we agreed no names.
Ben: That would be right , if'n I wasn't usin our code names
yagij - what area are you in?
John Stark,
DQ sales do not include trustee sales, these are sales to private parties.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes: Someone needs to throw a TARP over C. Starting to stink up the place.
Christopher Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics agrees.
(And he throws in the likelihood of a gov't bailout in the future for JPMorgan just to add some extra chili to an otherwise obvious recipe!)
Quoteman --
Life truly has become a Coen brothers movie.
John Stark - Many here and on other bubble blogs have done research that says the f/c are included...Housing Doom did a story a while back, I know CR does not agree with...
Quoteman, I laughed. Well played.
Nemo, agreed....
crispy&cole writes:
yagij - what area are you in?
crispy&cole | 11.18.08 - 2:41 pm
TN area. Where are you?
C&C,
It isn't true for DQ stats. It is private party sales taken from public records. Trustee deeds are easily filtered out. They are not included and DQ states that (it was in their Feb 07 release).
Thanx Sanity Claus,
I try and pick something left field and relevant...
funny those twpo qualifiers run together, like sands through the hour glass so are the days of our lives i guess...
SPX 850 got trashed. Can it hold 820 ?
To the best of my analysis DQ attempts to discard not-at-arms-length transactions but does not consider all (if any) trustee sales on the courthouse steps as qualifying. I agree with their methods. Trustee sales are real transactions even if a very few slip through too low. I assert that some also pass through at high market prices particularly when second lienholders are involved.
Looks like deflation is being locked-in in So. Cal. This is a good thing. Kiss the outrageous prices goodbye!
The next question is when will the inflation due to the socialized losses start to take effect?
bearly,
Gandalf's getting tired.
You shall not pass?
Nostrovia,
The sideways movement on the DOW is so suspenseful. . .is the low going to hold??
Hey, look, you can buy "the next Warren Buffett" at a price/book of 0.4.
.is the low going to hold??
C'mon, we got the bottom call.... didn't you sign up at the website?
who hits 200 first, skf or srs? Place your bets.
"Looks like deflation is being locked-in in So. Cal. This is a good thing. Kiss the outrageous prices goodbye! "
You need to visit Los Angeles. In a lot of ways it still feels like 2006 here. Surreal...
C now dipped below 8!
JBR - yup - there are many places that are still living in LALA land.
The SoCal for sale market has bifurcated. Half the inventory is "wishing priced" and half market priced. The market priced houses are selling 95% of that price. The wishing price half are delisting or REo until they show up again as market priced products.
oh sebASStion -
where art thou great fool? what doth your Wright ModelB sayeth?
Central California
DQNews - Changes in Statistics Methodology - February 2007
"Intra-family transfers are not included, nor are foreclosures until a home is re-sold to a new buyer."
No matter who, how or why the sales are happening and the market is being
cleared.
Why on earth Sheila Bair wants to keep deadbeats in 'their' homes using
taxpayer dollars and knowing that, by her own estimates 1/3 or more will default on the 'new' loan is the question.
Her ambitions aside, the plain fact is it is better to get the old 'owners' out and the property in the hands of new owners with better credit ratings.
where art thou great fool? what doth your Wright ModelB sayeth?
Seriously guys..... Sebastian has been back at least twice, and apologized with class for being wrong.
Try and be as cool.
I wonder if Bin Laden AlWEED is happy right now?
Still watching the NoseDaq. Ouch.
Joe6Pack: All train compartments smell vaguely of shit. It gets so you don't mind it. That's the worst thing that I can confess. You know how long it took me to get there? A long time. When you die you're going to regret the things you don't do. You think you're queer? I'm going to tell you something: we're all queer. You think you're a thief? So what? You get befuddled by a middle-class morality? Get shut of it. Shut it out. You cheat on your wife? You did it, live with it. You fuck little girls, so be it. There's an absolute morality? Maybe. And then what? If you think there is, go ahead, be that thing. Bad people go to hell? I don't think so. If you think that, act that way. A hell exists on earth? Yes. I won't live in it. That's me.
[pause]
You ever take a dump made you feel like you'd just slept for twelve hours?
Here we go again.
C is now in freefall...who will bail them?
crispy&cole(Good) writes:
Central California
crispy&cole | 11.18.08 - 2:54 pm
Got any car/dealership news from CA? Anywhere else? Looking for some anecdotes if nothing else.
been saving this thread music, it goes out to all the property owners out there...
YouTube - Gorillaz El Mañana
Nemo writes:
Still watching the NoseDaq. Ouch.
XRT is in more pain dan da naz
Market's gonna open today deep in the hole.
Duarte @ 2:49 -
you might want to check out the following re possible inflation kick-in:
FT.com / Financials - In a weird world, yields on Tips point to deflation
interesting reading.
Eric: is that the Money hole from the Onion?
Ouch, jus took a trip to the head and came back. Is today the day we get the 7 handle on the DOW and S&P?
Joe6Pack: WHAT YOU'RE HIRED FOR, is to help us... does that seem clear to you? TO HELP US, not to... FUCK-US-UP... to help those who are going out there to try to earn a living... You fairy. You company man.
"JBR - yup - there are many places that are still living in LALA land."
It's really frustrating. My gut, and all the external economic news says the central/west LA market should bust. Outside looking in though, it hasn't. Also frustrating is that there is nothing but cheerleading here. Nobody really talks about the bad news, they just keep going to the mall. Oh well...
i am the most negative, pessimistic, piss-n-vinager bear there is, but even i get scared when i look at $SPX
wow....just wow.
yagij - Over 100 have failed in CA. Many in Sac area, LA Area, and OC area...
Largest dealer in Minn is on the verge of collapse because of Cerberus killed his flooring.
Can C become a penny stock?
Boy, the PPT sure makes it exciting for us.
Do they show up in force, now, or not?
If we get sell pressure in the last hour this is going to be ugly - we are too close to a technical resistance level that if broken will lead to a cascade of selling.
Do they show up in force, now, or not?
Five more minutes.
Bottom Dweller writes:
Ouch, jus took a trip to the head and came back. Is today the day we get the 7 handle on the DOW and S&P?
If we can hold to as much as a 7 handle it will be only in passing. Not today I am thinking. PPT up to bat in less than an hour.
crispy&cole writes:
C is now in freefall...who will bail them?
The market is doing what Bush should be doing right now (clearing up insolvency issues). The time for a bank holiday draws neigh.
And remember GS wanted to merge with C and C refused. What does that tell you about GS?
look at C! and BACs stmt didnt help MER
DCRodgers, Whalen isn't too optimistic
about any of the new Megabanks, C,BAC,WFC,JPM.
I could be charitable and say that is what is motivating Sheila Bair's 'plan' to put the government on the hook for bad loans to bad customers but I don't think she really 'gets it'. To her it is about personal advancement.
BTW, where did that rule about no bank having more than 10% of total deposits go? Just waived by ukase from
somewhere?
Rather than consolidating the nations
banking system into a handful of mega
banks that are too big to fail and also too big to save shouldn't the FED
be seeking to break them up into decent but manageable sized institutions?
And it looks like WFC might have lost their shine a bit today...
We need a rumour right now, quick what can Warren be thinking of doing...quick think
dammit, sold skf waaaay too early. [/kicks-self]
And DOWN the stretch they come...
(well, I guess it should be "AND THEY'RE OFF").
My guess.... DOWN -100 at the wire.
Ben Bernake: Where's your head, Sen Dodd? Where do you think the pressure's coming from? Keyser Soze - or whatever you want to call him - knows where I am right now. He's got the front burner under' your ass to let me go so he can scoop me up ten minutes later. Immunity was just to deal with you assholes. I got a whole new problem when I post bail.
Sen Dodd: So why play into his hands? We can protect you.
Ben Bernake: Gee, thanks, Senator. Bang-up job so far. Extortion, coercion. You'll pardon me if I ask you to kiss my pucker. The same fuckers that rounded us up and sank us into this mess are telling me They'll bail me out? Fuck you. You think you can catch Keyser Soze? You think a guy like that comes this close to getting fingered and sticks his head out? If he comes up for anything, it will be to get rid of me. After that, my guess is you'll never hear from him again.
Rob Dawg writes:
The SoCal for sale market has bifurcated. Half the inventory is "wishing priced" and half market priced.
Same in MA, VA and AZ (my 3 environs). I guess it's the same everywhere.
Unless the PPT pulls off a miracle here, I'll be holding SRS overnight. There has been a tremendous amount of technical damage done today, and Asia will choke on the numbers if we go out weak.
Even Sacramento real estate is still marked to fantasy. Home price deflation is a long, slow leak.
Maybe this will help:
"Chrysler leads list of 2008's worst-performing cars"
CBC News - Consumer Life - Chrysler leads list of 2008's worst-performing cars
Is 3 o'clock.
Do you know where the DOW is?
Maybe C is venting the methane gas from their books today and someone caught a whiff.
Um, make that sDs.
Will SRS trigger my sell order at $199.50? Down the stretch they come!
"dammit, sold skf waaaay too early. [/kicks-self]"
Don't beat yourself up --- there is no possible way of ever knowing what is going to develop
Gosh...I have to admit at these levels C looks interesting
(Barley repeat this: please not now, please not now dont get suckered in)
La Jolla is getting downright affordable, now: three/six moving average of median price for a resale home is off 27-28% from peak. Median price for a resale home is now $1.3MM.
San Diego Real Estate > sdhomes . Sign On San Diego . Com : Leading source for new and resale homes listings in San Diego. Houses, condos, duplexes, apartments and properties for rental or sale. Commercial real estate, retail, office, warehousing. Plus
Click on 'Central San Diego'
I know part of it is mix. But, things are getting tough, here. Oh, the horror.
Median price for a resale home for San Diego as a whole is off 39% from peak.
After that my guess is that you will never hear from him again. The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist. And like that... he is gone.
C&C,
Any idea what Residential RE is looking like for Central CA? Still fantasy price?
Rob Dawg:
Same thing (bifurcated market) happening here.
Really upscale stuff is sitting and swinging in the breeze. Lower end is going decently and the desperate sellers are taking a huge shave to move things.
Good golly, I sure wish I had not chickened out and sold my Nov 6$ UYG puts for .35 yesterday. At least my MAR 4$ are looking good.
to october 2008. Read Daily Kos: Update: Screaming in a Burning Theater: Zero Bank Reserves
here comes the rally attempt
Unit472: Banking reserve requirements were changed in the banking bill, which moved up the requirements change from october 2011 to october 2008. Read Daily Kos: Update: Screaming in a Burning Theater: Zero Bank Reserves
here comes the upswing..
false start
affordability comes out to play.
PPT sputtering like a flooded Evenrude....Someone leave the choke on?
Market opens in 22min. Please fasten your 3pt harnesses.
Comrade-Dope jg (jg)(excellent, but not as good as some) writes: La Jolla is getting downright affordable, now: three/six moving average of median price for a resale home is off 27-28% from peak. Median price for a resale home is now $1.3MM.
So that's like, ummm, another 60% to hit your price point?
We have seen the revaluation of assets to more reasonable levels. However now we must also revalue to levels where record credit growth is not buttressing all earnings, and in addition there is a recession.
its working....
going positive
hank to kashnkarry: tarpy says to throw that pallet of fresh C notes into ppt's cage. we need to juice this sucker up!
Here PPT comes
At this rate, Mr. Market is going to have a really nasty case of the bends well before 4PM.
i>bearly writes:
Market opens in 22min. Please fasten your 3pt harnesses.
Anything less than a 300pt rated harness is likely to fail. Buckle up.
Whoever is pouring the money in, does it with pre-programmed trading. I can see the change on my screens when multiple blocks of stock all go green at once...they start to pulse green like mad.
Is that our tax money being thrown in?
INDU gree
CR, ya got hat tip from setser. i know this is the worst time to post, being the daytrader part of the blog's feeding frenzy. but this is a bit of yikes for me.
brad did rockstar analysis as always (i posted the raw data here this morn)
"This is an example of what Calculated Risk calls cliff-diving. Foreign demand for any US bond with a smidgen of credit risk has disappeared."
observed
sdtfs, we will buy (1) when we confirm SoCal is safe and (2) in three years or so.
Bought a handgun this weekend. The store was swamped. The clerk joked that HE was going to lobby for gun control (to thin the crowds).
market will be up 100 in 10 minutes
we'll finish down 200+
"Really upscale stuff is sitting and swinging in the breeze."
The problem here in LA, is that "everyone" thinks their place is upscale. New listings in decent 'hoods, little prewar single story 2/1's, 3/2's on 6500 sq ft lots are well over a million still. Anything under a million (999k is a popular price) sells pretty quick. You know, 'cuz they're "bargains" :-/
In 2000 or so these places went for 200-400k.
Auto bailout will save us all.
Good thing analysts are forecasting earnings coming in with 20% growth in Q4, 'cause it is an ugly chain the S&P has got to break:
Banking & Financial Services News from PR Newswire
Hilarious, the analysts forecasting earnings growing 20% in Q4.
There has been a tremendous amount of technical damage done today
Where does it have to close to undo that technical damage, or is an intraday low not "undoable"?
Mr. Mkt assumes auto's are bailed out. To fail to bail.... now that would get ugly.
Is it just my connection, or are all the intertubes running slow today?
(Especially financial sites...)
"President-elect Obama has decided to tap Eric Holder as his attorney general, putting the veteran Washington lawyer in place to become the first African-American to head the Justice Department, according to two legal sources close to the presidential transition."
Obama's Attorney General - Powering Up Blog - Newsweek.com
I give up. Obama's presidency is a continuation of Clinton's presidency. The AG appointment was tremendously important in my view. Perhaps the most important step to reestablish trust in our country was a flurry of indictments after Jan 20th. More of the same.
There is the swing
Was plus.
now down 50
Will we have to bailout the new buyers, too? If they aren't requiring 50% down, I'm not happy. Californians are back looking for a quick buck. Too bad, the buck they will find is the buck from a angry bull who will subsequently kick them in the face and knock them out.
Eric - I would say it is biased weak until we get back above 917. I'm not expecting that to happen. Today or tomorrow we should take out 818 on S&P. But should does not always correspond to does.
"Perhaps the most important step to reestablish trust in our country was a flurry of indictments after Jan 20th."
I agree wholeheartedly. After 8 years of a creampuff partisan JDpt. We need an impartial pit-bull in there to put the fear of law back in to law enforcement.
"Perhaps the most important step to reestablish trust in our country was a flurry of indictments after Jan 20th."
I agree wholeheartedly. After 8 years of a creampuff partisan JDpt. We need an impartial pit-bull in there to put the fear of law back in to law enforcement.
It's almost comical that the GOP was once the law and order party.
Raging PPT
Gotta break 8200 on the downside to go down today - otherwise we'll rally
Houston - we have a green dow
up, up and away.....
Thanks, boys, but will you respect me in the morning?
Shorter term, a move of SPX above 858 would be an encouraging sign to the upside, with confirmation from a take-out of 867.
Thread music.
YouTube -
YouTube -
Eric writes:
up, up and away.....
...in my beautiful, my beautiful baallloooon....
Oh... nevermind... that's an old song
[up, up and away.....
Eric ]
This is still preMarket
Love that spread on the naz and diamonds.
potential new bat sign developing!
OK, that may have been all she had on the upside. We drop 75 on the Dow it could get much worse.
Looks like a flat opening for Bearly, and a flat close for Mr.Market
I give up. Obama's presidency is a continuation of Clinton's presidency
Told you so.
"Change" will have to wait until 2012 or make itself known through other means.
Obama is ego-focused, not country-focused.
"Oh, well"
35 minutes to go, red is back in fashio
DOW Green?
Let's just say one of the effects tests of thermo-nuclear research was a feasibility study about the ability of thermo-nuclear weapons to be used instead of conventional blast substances for large scale construction projects.
Good money being thrown after bad.
hrysler CEO says without immediate bridge financing help, Chrysler may lack sufficient capital to sustain operations: written testimony
Yen, gold, oil, Not much happening.
Long bond strong.
Mixed
I'm not expecting much the rest of the day in sp.
Tonight's headline: Market did well today - only 200pts down!
Jesus.. green again. This is like the last fight scene in every Rocky movie.
Very entertaining at least
Commissioner Gordon flashing?
Getting that right shoulder on the post 3pm Bat Signal.....
Most of the big 'bailed' out banks are heading to single digits.
Touched by the TARP.
TARPED.
green and then down 40 again..... it is war
Why are these buyers necessarily knife catchers? Even if a market overshoots to the bottom, paying the intrinsic value for an asset is not an inherently stupid move. Or is SoCal RE still over priced? I'm on the other coast, so I wouldn't know.
Oh, and re: the attorney general pick. It's amazing the country is clamoring for FDR II, and the early signs point to Clinton Lite instead. Not good. We've gotten to the point where big policy mistakes are not just "disappointing" or "regrettable," but nation-ending.
Volker has been around a long time. Obama is considering him for Treasury Secretary.
Paul Volcker: "What this crisis reveals is a broken financial system like no other in my lifetime... I don't think anybody thinks we're going to get through this recession in a hurry."
Link
Anyone read this? Highly accurate look at the world, the dollar and hidden motivations. The USA is a failed empire. The turmoil is caused by the vacuum being formed without a successor.
Jesse's Café Américain: The Dollar Trap: Michael Hudson's Incisive Characterization of Our Global Economic Dilemma
paying the intrinsic value for an asset is not an inherently stupid move.
Define "intrinsic value", which must obviously be different than "market value".
ChangeYourDogCanRollIn
You're right about that.
"paying the intrinsic value for an asset is not an inherently stupid move."
And what is the intrinsic value?
Markel - you cant even use the term SoCal RE. No such thing. The markets now are far more divergent then ever. The price ratio between good and crap markets is astounding. And I dont think that is because the crap has fallen below equilibrium.
assistant to hank: (hank is busy painting some tape) it's a Mr. Wayne sir, something about infringing on copyright
OT,
FDIC Announces Location of Temporary West Coast Satellite Office
After conducting a thorough search and competitive bidding process in the southern California market, the FDIC entered into a lease for 200,000 square feet of space located at 40 Pacifica Place, in Irvine. The location and lease were determined to be the best value for the FDIC, considering mission, price and other qualitative criteria listed in our solicitation. The term of the lease is for three years, with two one-year options.
So they expect to need it for 3-5 years.
OK, its showtime.
Someone's buying at 8200, but it aint me. Lets see how much money they have.....
It's like the flushing of the toilet. Some goes down with the first swirl but it ALL eventually goes down. If the first flush dosen't get it the second surely will. The Q2 of 09' should do the trick.
zoom writes:
Anyone read this?
Thanks for the site.
Markel, check out Doctor Housing Bubble (http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com) who shows the median income stats for California.
The short answer is that CA incomes are higher, but only a few percent. It's not like janitors are pulling six figures, especially in Compton.
In Michael Lewis' recent Atlantic article, he said it got to 10x income in some places in California.
So going from 10x to 5x is still a LOOOOOONG way from intrinsic value.
"After conducting a thorough search and competitive bidding process in the southern California market, the FDIC entered into a lease for 200,000 square feet of space located at 40 Pacifica Place, in Irvine."
If they paid anything over just paying the NNNs, the gov't got screwed. How much do you want to bet that they paid more than the NNNs?
If the first flush dosen't get it the second surely will.
And sometimes you need some help from the Plunger Team.
So going from 10x to 5x is still a LOOOOOONG way from intrinsic value.
Again: Define "intrinsic value". "Market value" is well defined, but I think you will get a BIG surprise when you try to define "intrinsic value".
I paid intrinsic value for my sandwich today. I wish I had only paid extrinsic value though.
I think the intrinsic value of my time is greater that the market values given it. So I will pay market values now and will be happy later, when the market values of my intrinsic values of time increase.
PPT only trying to save the Dow and not the S&P? Some divergence between the two.
Okay with me; I'm short the S&P.
Please PPT, feel free to focus YOUR efforts and MY money on the Dow.
Intrinsic value?
Inherent value?
Are you kidding? This is "hold-to-maturity" thinking.
You only have a real price post-facto, when it's sold and recorded. Period.
You may lose/win/breakeven. but don't assume there is an inherent real das ding price out there floating in the ether...geez
re: intrinsic, market, I think the marxists use the terms use value and exchange value (maybe going back to Ricardo and Smith definitions)
ANyone seen PCA? Major Batman, Robin & Hoopjaaaah formation occuring...time to buy?
20 minutes
in the zone now
Greens pumping hard
This market is good for an overall 10% down per quarter for the next 2 and 5% for the 2 quarters after that...a total of 30% more to go. That would set things back to where it all began...back pre 1997. If all the economic false money talk is real...then we have yet to even get to the halfway mark on the medicine bottle. Home prices...who cares..it won't even matter when 80% of outstanding mortgages are 90 days late.
The bears lost, no selloff - the rally happening too late. I think....
cue Tchaikovsky's 1812 for the climatic finish
Well, kudos to whoever kept testing the upside. Holding short overnight.
Another truckload of money got dumped into the money hole.
After 8 years of a creampuff partisan JDpt. We need an impartial pit-bull in there to put the fear of law back in to law enforcement.
I agree, but Eric Holder is probably not the guy given that he signed off Clinton's midnight pardons, including the notorious Marc Rich.
So its a Dow PPT only.. interesting.
BofA CEO Kenneth Lewis:
""We won't see a real turnaround until the core problem, housing, reaches a bottom, stabilizes and turns the corner," he said at the Detroit Economic Club."
OK, so is this blackmail? The whole economy has to be bad until he gets his housing recovery?
buuuuuuurp
ANyone seen PCA? Major Batman, Robin & Hoopjaaaah formation occuring...time to buy?
Not until i see the graphs with the circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one.
Will be interesting to see (if the Dow is up and the S&P closes down0 what the news says - "Markets were UP today on.. xyz news"
anon writes:
The bears lost.
Depends on your timeframe.
"Someone's buying at 8200, but it aint me. Lets see how much money they have....."
Not enough. I'll wager.
up 103.. what a joke this market has become.
You people seem smart. Do you think we should be buying Dow futures or selling dollars to pump the markets?
We are concerned that just pumping the Dow is creating a disconnect. Dollar dumping would give us a more uniform pump across the markets. I guess we just answered our own question.
Ken Lewis, it will good to see you on the scrapheap of history. Housing was the cause but we are way beyond fixing housing to save the financial system.
Personal default is going to be the anchor that drags the banks into the deep. Taxpayers are broke because the economy is broke. The banks have mortgaged our future without realizing we all will walk away at a certain point. Abandoning the fiat currency system and focusing on community lending will be the end for these guys. Inevitable and preferable to the current status quo.
New thread.
To have values in excess of incomes is not so 'unusual' in California or
even 'unsustainable'.
Not everyone paid the 'new' price. Marin County used to be a middle-class
suburb of San Francisco,e.g. but as the Bay Area grew and grew those close
in suburban tract homes became a lot
more desirable and expensive than the people living in them could ever afford to buy. Samething in Palo Alto
and coast Southern California.
Unit472;
Good point. That's why Prop 13 happened.
There is strong buying in this market at 8100-8200 on the Dow and 830ish on the S&P. It aint me, but its definately there and I just dont see how we go lower on light volume. It may disappear with a fundamental blow up somewhere, but for now its there. Its not a small volume buyer and its not the "alleged" PPT. Its also an across the board buyer.
Need big volume to blow through the lows or we will be range bound for awhile until the news gets fundamentally better or worse.
Forgive me if this has been noted already, but I believe the spike is due to the ending date of Down Payment Assistance programs for those 3% down FHA loans.
Though prices have come down a lot, they are still outrageous. Even by the 38% standard, a home in this area for an average family requires two strong wage-earners per household. The median household price to median household income needs to drop to about 3, and it's probably over 5 still.
...Fifty-one percent of existing homes that closed escrow in October were foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months.
They caught the bottom, those savvy foreclosure flippers.
I can has bounce now?
Right now Mr. Mortgage is looking at the SoCal report and thinking "shit how can I spin this to make it seem like this isnt an increase"?
Gotta keep every last reader with constant tales of woe - cant lose one pair of eyes or my ad revenue dries up. This aint over til my kids college fund is paid off!
Mr.Mortgage gives a fair appraisal of the SoCal market - and numbers don't mean ahit anyway - so many of the lenders are lying, or bending the rules.
Downey would look worse if they still booked foreclosures initiations at 60 days instead of 120 - it's all crap.
You want to bitch at someone, how about Paulson and his mini-me Kash-n-karry, Helicopter Ben, Barney and his cast of players who pretend to be having hearings, which are really just the officialization of The Man's version of the truth:
Bernanke, Paulson and Bair Testify – But Can We get a Witness? « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
And write off the 'free press' too - what a joke, all of the evidence of their lies is right there on line for all to see...
BARELY WROTE:
Maybe this will help:
"Chrysler leads list of 2008's worst-performing cars"
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story...s- cartests.html
Thanks for the assist. This article makes the big three's testimony that much more absurd when a dorky macro economist suggested that a decline in sales can be attributed to US cars being so "well made" today. They'll say anything for some easy money.
The number of people who are unfamiliar with the term "intrinsic value" serves as a caution to those who would draw economic advice from the comments on this blog.
The question is, can Mr. Mortgage honestly say this ONE SINGLE DATA POINT is up?
If hes honest, he will say, yes this is up, but look at all the potential for downside (he is right about that)
If hes not honest, he will twist this SINGLE DATA POINT to suggest that it too isnt good.
We shall see.