Condo Projects Postponed in Vancouver
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 11/18/2008 - 4:15pm (327 comments)
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Nemo
Satan - shall we gloat over the misfortune of Smug Canucks??
It's just no fun anymore with the pig tipping everyone off. See what you started Nemo?
That's gonna leave a big hole in a balance sheet.
Nostrovia,
Hey I just wrote a tool, I didn't publish one!
There are already more than 2 developments on hold. Even the highly touted Millenium development, which supposedly is to be the Olympic athlete village is in deep doo doo now. Seriously, a new condo project getting halted has been weekly news recently, if not daily.
I don't ahve the tool. I just use The Force.
Mark Twain once defined "mine" as:
mine, n.
A hole in the ground with a liar at the top.
I guess the same definition applies to "condo project" these days
OT, cheney gonzales indictment seems to be timed for a pardon. no worries, lots of crimes to look at.
prez elect is vetting his own AG -
Holder Being Vetted for Attorney General, People Say (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
You probably have those three playmates taking turns clicking refresh. The other two have the tool.
Man, Elvis really is everywhere.
(Or is that Darth Elvis?)
And dont forget the City of Vancouver had to guarentee the loans of the Fortress Investment Group to the tune of 290M - which is about equal to one year of civic operations. Because Fortress backed a company for the construction loans for building which are meant for the Olympics.
It comes to about S7,300/pp for each taxpayer if the deal go sideways.
Just south of Vancouver a 'burb called Surrey, a huge project was cancelled a few weeks ago.
A few developers have already gone belly up in the last six months. Many very big potholes, I'm sure
My bet Vancouver will go BK with this toxic stuff and the 2010 Olympic Games.
Kinda wonder how the ticket sales for Games will do once the games start.
it was inevitable that the supertankers full of chinese cash bankrolling all of those stanley park condos would ease up at some point. it has been one of the most seemingly popular money laundering schemes on the globe for a decade or so now.
This is my hometown, I feel very special. I'm not living there right now, but I can refer you to some forum threads that follow things very closely.
Olympic Village Might have heard about Fortress' financing
Jameson House was the first condo mentioned. Beautiful project, but small time developer didn't secure the financing. In time one of the local big developers will probably build the project as they had no problem with sales, but there is no rush with construction costs falling.
Ritz Carlton Sales office apparently still open, with the story that the application is being changed to increase the # of hotel floors to condo floors (which reduces profit for the developer). It might be cancelled, it might have some new partners, or it might just be that permit change
ehhh nobody wants to go there anyways. Too cold.
Barley, you have some significant misunderstandings over the Fortress/Millennium/Olympic village financing. I won't waste thread space repeating an explanation given to you in a previous thread.
Anyone think the rally continues tomorrow? OpEx is coming and we're under max pain by a bit.
EHP - Thanks. I dont like lectures. And, I can read - my understanding is just fine.
I guess we are going to be digging holes and filling them in again.
Nostrovia,
I was up there about 8 moths ago. It was crane city. You could also tell most of the already built buildings were new. They were all window-wall facades with ornate aluminum extrusions. Looked beautiful and expensive!
I wonder if they have any dollar denominated loans. That would painful with the recent fall of the loonie....
.....
Looks like Bellvue, Wa circa 2008 or San Diego circa 2003
ehhh nobody wants to go there anyways. Too cold.
lendingmaestro
Its actually relatively moderate in Vancouver. Doesnt hardly snow and people can surf there... (now if you're a SoCal resident i can see your issue)
I guess we are going to be digging holes and filling them in again.
We just need to get some money into every one of those holes before we fill it in again. Or wait, let's just fill them in with money. That's better.
c&c - Diego is still going... No one knows why....
Aren't these big giant holes supposed to be where they are hiding the money?
Barley,
Well, the maximum guarantee is $237mn (incl. $20mn contingency). Their collateral in that worst case scenario would be ownership of land + 1,100 condo units + Millennium's other properties + Millennium's directors private finances. The $100mn loan comes out of the city's $1.3bn capital fund. It was news because of how they handled the deal during an election.
nades,
Not sure about the USD loans to developers. A lot of foreign speculators did have mortgages from other countries though because of familiarity/better rates/more flexible loans. I doubt most of them got out in time, too many people believe there will always be a boost in prices post-Olympics
The biggest hit to the city will be in terms of employment. Construction, realtors, restaurants were the sources of money in the city. Hopefully this larger than normal bust will encourage more CRE building (of which there is a serious deficit within the city, especially downtown -- condos were more profitable)
But Canada is different! We are all smarter, whiter, fiscally conservative and more civilized here.. This is just an attempt by the US dominated media to spread it's misery.
S
ades- the voiceofsandiego and piggington have done a great job exposing the stupidy of the SD condo situation...
"But Canada is different! We are all smarter, whiter,"
The only thing white about Canada is the snow. Glad to see you're back trolling, boring day at home?
Canada has its own money holes
satan,
Before you try to destroy another thread, I've definitely been calling for a price cut of ~50% depending on the area in Vancouver. My objection came to you when you stubbornly estimated a 90% drop across the board with 80% unemployment.
Canada peaked 25 years ago
the haunting cry of the 94 cent loonie
c&c,
"nades- the voiceofsandiego and piggington have done a great job exposing the stupidy of the SD condo situation..."
Yeah well, at least people like to live there.
What's Bakersfield gonna do?
/Ducks!
Nostrovia,
EHP,
No, What I said was
60% drop for SFH
80% drop for condos
and 20-25% unemployment at the peak.. the peak of depression.
These numbers are based on what is shaping up in California and Florida.
EHP - the land is native land and therefore leased by the City to do the initial construction - unless I read that wrong. And all of that means nothing is Millennium goes bk. And, you might agree that owning 1,100 condos is not a risk adverse move right about now. Directors private finances are not touchable, as far as I know. Regarding the Election - my understanding is that the City Council did this deal in private w/ no local input - it was secret, top-secret and the taxpayer was never to know.
EHP - sorry for my sharp response but so many read the spin and dont scratch below the surface (not say'n you) but most folks.
I am predicting that BC will go the way of CA, FL, AZ, NV. I think that is a reasonable prediction.
Misean is Dope - Up until a month ago our two big industries (one of which I am in, along with CRE and Retail) were in great shape - Oil and Ag. Now Oil and Ag prices are in freefall...brother can you spare a dime?
California as a state has already dropped 50% from the peak, and the real fun has not yet begun.
My issue with BC is simple- where are the jobs to support those housing prices.
"Looks like Bellvue, Wa circa 2008 or San Diego circa 2003"
I'm in Bellevue, Wa right now. Lots of cranes still up and going, a new hole in the ground on the other side of the building I'm in. Don't know who is going to buy all of these high end condos, the real estate market hear is near dead.
Pissed Off In California,
Wow I didn't realize what was posted until you pointed it out. I'm very skeptical that satan (and its numerous aliases) has ever been more than a troll. Try not to get your back up over it, he's blatantly wrong and anyone with some first hand knowledge of Canada would write him off as crazy
Barley,
The land is owned by the city, not Musqueam. They did retain ownership until completion, which is why there was the abnormal choice in financing through FIG that required a city guarantee. It is adequately collateralized though. The deal was done in private and they looked foolish, but it's likely they didn't want to in any way make it harder to sell those units later.
I didn't take any offence to what you called your sharp reply. I guess I had replied before in a post that you never saw.
Vancouver is probably one of the biggest housing bubbles in North America.
We may be the Phoenix of Canada
c&c,
"Now Oil and Ag prices are in freefall...brother can you spare a dime?"
Yeah I know. Have some friends up there. Ones in construction. Fortunately his grandmother left him her house which is paid for.
Nostrovia,
What does a condo in Vancouver go for these days?
Couple images to share.
1) The runup, peaking winter 2008 http://www.robchipman.net/blog/images/1977-2008Octoberpricegraph.pdf
2) The fall thus far, compared to US cities.
081114_VancovuerBenchmark on Flickr - Photo Sharing! (from Seattle housing bubble and Langley Financial Planning)
Vancouver could fall harder and faster than the US cities:
* Run-up lasted more years, over 150% increase
* Unlike US cities, the run-up had substantive hype behind it -- "The Olympics are coming!"
* Pervasive belief that "property value won't fall in Vancouver"
* The RE crash is happening at the same time as the financial sector crash, forestry sector crash, and energy sector crash.
* Vancouver homes are probably more overpriced relative to income than any major US city. Income is just over $60K, average SFH home peaked at over $900K, Condo peaked at over $400K. That's 15x income and 6.5x for a condo.
* Huge amount of speculative overbuilding -- estimates of over 18,000 empty condos (most owned by speculators) and tens of thousands currently under construction, during a time when population growth is relatively low.
I'm forecasting Vancouver area RE 30% off peak by April 2009 and 60% off peak by April 2010.
Whybuywhenucanrent'til'2013?
12th Percentile writes:
What does a condo in Vancouver go for these days?
Half a pack of smokes and a pepperoni stick.
No.. you are hurting feelings. The vancouver housing market is not sinking like a 'Titanic', it is soaring like the 'Hindenburg'.
Vancouver housing disaster writes:
Vancouver is probably one of the biggest housing bubbles in North America.
We may be the Phoenix of Canada
Vancouver housing disaster | 11.18.08 - 8:01 pm | #
"nades- the voiceofsandiego and piggington have done a great job exposing the stupidy of the SD condo situation..."
I see at least 4-5 brand new projects that are busy digging foundations here - mostly in the undesirable eastern fringe of downtown. A couple are subsidized affordable housing buildings. Rigor mortis has not set in yet.
Where will all the somali pirates live?
Well things are looking positively moribund in Asia at the moment.
Nostrovia,
Whwbuywhenucanrent?
But canucks do not like to hear about the real world, the make believe one is so much better.
The intensity and duration of this boom will severely affect Vancouver.
My sweet, sweet home town.
Citigroup liquidates fund that fell 53% in a month
By Henny Sender and Francesco Guerrera in New York
Citigroup is liquidating its Corporate Special Opportunities hedge fund after it lost 53 per cent of its value last month, marking the ninth time in recent months that the bank has had to close or rescue a fund in its alternative investment unit.
The collapse represents the latest setback for Citis chief executive, Vikram Pandit, a former head of the alternative investment unit, who revealed plans on Monday to cut the banks headcount by 52,000. Citi shares fell 6 per cent on Tuesday to $8.36, giving it a market value of $45.5bn.
CSO, which managed almost $4.2bn at its peak, has a net asset value of about $58m and debt of about $880m, investors say. People familiar with the matter say investors in the fund are likely to receive no more than 10 cents on the dollar.
The fund faltered even though Citi supplied it with $450m in credit lines and equity infusions of about $320m. It also bought assets with a notional value of $1bn that it placed in the fund.
Investors in the fund which invested mainly in debt backing European private equity deals have not been allowed to withdraw their money for about a year as performance deteriorated. Losses for Citi could total hundreds of millions of dollars, people familiar with the matter said.
Citigroup said its hedge funds are subject to comprehensive internal fiduciary and risk management oversight and senior level management supervision. As with many other credit-based investment products, investment returns have been hurt by one of the most volatile periods for fixed income in history.
In an update to investors last month, CSO Partners said its performance was impacted by the funds leverage after a deterioration in market conditions that has been unprecedented and overwhelming.
FT.com / Companies / Banks - Citigroup liquidates fund that fell 53% in a month
c&c,
"Citigroup is liquidating its Corporate Special Opportunities hedge fund after it lost 53 per cent of its value last month, marking the ninth time in recent months that the bank has had to close or rescue a fund in its alternative investment unit."
Black-Hole model at work again. Those things gotta stop having that until they don't bit. Getting fugly now.
Nostrovia,
welcome to san diego - BC developers mostly the builders of our big condo and hotel projects. At least 10 have been cancelled this year. Up along Balboa Park Park Ave. above downtown there's a 15 story tower that is empty, crane even moved offsite. And the cement and 1st story of another a few blocks away, rebar already rusting. Only one hole in the ground i know of and it was for a small 7 story office condo. Also financed by Chinese/Taiwan holding company.
"CSO, which managed almost $4.2bn at its peak, has a net asset value of about $58m and debt of about $880m, investors say. People familiar with the matter say investors in the fund are likely to receive no more than 10 cents on the dollar."
Good thing this was managed by the "best and brightest" otherwise they mighy only get $.05 on the dollar. LMFAO!!!
12th percentile,
I mostly paid attention to condos downtown. At peak for new construction the worst were doing $400,000 for 450-500 sq ft. A lot was sold around the $350,000 mark.
Vancouver is very prone to real estate boom/busts. It busted in 1988 (high mortgage rates), 1995 (China did not chase everyone out of Hong Kong), 2000 (stock portfolios I guess). If you average them out the cycle has been 5 years up, 3 years down in real prices.
The most recent bubble took off in 2003. It's kind of moved in tandem with Seattle. Good rule of thumb is 18 - 24 months behind America.
Inventory rocketed up this spring, and following effective law prices have dropped and are continuing at a good pace. The first price decline I think was in May 2008.
I'm not so downbeat because there were a lot of people making stupid-easy money, it has little bearing on my professional field, and there are going to be a lot of beautiful condos in a few years time for cheap. *Just make sure the building is properly maintained and doesn't have a leaky envelope
c&c - thanks, I remember Henny Sender when he was at (IIRC) South China Morning Post for the last financial crisis. Wrote some good stuff.
CC
EHP
"I've definitely been calling for a price cut of ~50% depending on the area in Vancouver"
Agreed. Condos for sure I'd say 30-40% for SFR
"The land is owned by the city, not Musqueam. They did retain ownership until completion"
Agreed. They already purchased the land (once). So, they co-sign a loan on a chunk of land that they already own and might pay 100M to keep ownership. If you beleive this...I've got a Bridge to sell you for $10M - and its all yours. I'll draw up the papers.
EHP,
$889/sqft...that is just insane.
Nostrovia,
I'm hoping that Toronto's decline will be roughly equivalent to Chicago's in intensity.
Greater Toronto Area prices 'only' went up at about a 6.5% CAGR through 2007.
I'm hoping it bottoms out at -20% from the peak (nominal), but we shall see.
crispy&cole --
Citigroup is liquidating its Corporate Special Opportunities hedge fund after it lost 53 per cent of its value last month
I really love, love, LOVE the names these guys come up with. Is that "special" as in "education", or as in "prosecutor"?
I think it's time to update my rule. Never invest in anything whose name includes:
"General"
"Enhanced"
and now
"Special"
Forget about 2010 Olympics ticket sales helping Vancouver - all sales in hands of monopoly contract with jetset promoters, sanctioned by the USOC to get the profits thanks to the 1978 Ted Stevens Act giving US Olympic Committee all rights...
In time one of the local big developers will probably build the project as they had no problem with sales, but there is no rush with construction costs falling.
EvilHenryPaulson, You know that the project is only 50% sold right? Did you also know that a huge number of the pre-sales for Jameson house were purchased by insiders?
Regarding the City of Vancouver laying claim to the Millenium condos if the developer goes belly up, how easy do you think it will be for the city to recoup the $1000/sqft+ cost of building the condos that are also only 50% sold?
" crispy&cole writes:
Misean is Dope - Up until a month ago our two big industries (one of which I am in, along with CRE and Retail) were in great shape - Oil and Ag. Now Oil and Ag prices are in freefall...brother can you spare a dime?
crispy&cole | Homepage | 11.18.08 - 7:55 pm | # "
My best wishes to Bakersfield, truly. A lot of hardworking people around there living not far from the edge.
Comrade Misean is Dope,
$889/sqft...that is not insane. It is the premium to live in a box in the sky in canada's 'bestest' city.
Don't you know that vancouver is like canada's LA and SD rolled into one (hold that thought, housing in those 2 cities is not doing too well). You see it is special here.. there are free ponies and pixie dust for all in vancouver- at least if you smoke enough weed.
The 'benchmark' price of a detached house in Vancouver is $695,962 as of October 2008, which is down almost 10% from the market peak:
October 2008 - Vancouver house prices have fallen almost 10% from their peak | Vancouver Condo Info
Nemo,
Crap,
I'm invested in a fund called the
G eneral
A dvanced
R evenue
B oosting
A cclerating &
G rowth
E nhancement fund.
Guess that was a dumb idea.
I am taking bets-
Who thinks vancouver will go bankrupt before the 2010 games?
And median household income is about 55-60 k.. never mind. We are special.. whee
//The 'benchmark' price of a detached house in Vancouver is $695,962 as of October 2008, which is down almost 10% from the market peak://
Whwbuywhenucanrent?,
re: SFH / average income
SFH is not the average house. Even on the east side they would have had to buy in 2005 and rent out the basement suite to afford it. The average family home in Vancouver, for any family started in the last decade, would be a condo or if they're lucky a townhouse.
Unless you're using Vancouver to include the suburban cities, in which case the average house in the Valley probably was $600k instead of 900.
re: Energy / Forestry / Financial / Real Estate / Film crashes, yup the province is cruisin' for a bruisin'. I had a stat to use to convince family that the market would definitely bust like they've never seen it, can't remember it right now but of the new jobs since 2003 an obscene amount were in construction. Probably see a fair amount of net-migration back to Ontario. The only saving grace for BC is that the provincial government, wisely or not, has a lot of infrastructure spending lined up (Evergreen line, some power projects, ...) The Island will be hit hard as they really depend on forestry, and their house prices went up a lot due to boomers buying their retirement places. Up north will get hit from the slow down in natural gas, but they can hardly get enough people up to Ft St John to feel it too bad. Okanagan will lose some on golf/vineyards/tourism, but no worse than the lower mainland to put a positive spin on things
Oh, and don't worry about a few developments being cancelled, we've still got LOTS of supply coming when it comes to downtown condos:
Condo supply - Condowiki
Nemo - how about "Total"?
CC
In Vancouver, everyone gets free ponies. In Victoria you get free ponies and government funded pixie dust.
The cabana boyz on the Titanic are still busy rearranging chaise lounges to take full advantage of the orientation of the sun on the horizon -
"And Pandit's notes disclosed that Citigroup plans to move $80 billion worth of marked-down assets on its balance sheet into a held for investment, held to maturity or available for sale category, instead of listing them on their trading portfolio"
In Vancouver, everyone gets free ponies.
No, this is a common misconception. Magic Ponies are only in the USA, in Vancouver you get a capuchin monkey for every 2 months you delay buying: Vancouver house and condo price drop BONANZA! | Vancouver Condo Info
That is a good one! I might add monkey + a pound of pot.
//No, this is a common misconception. Magic Ponies are only in the USA, in Vancouver you get a capuchin monkey for every 2 months you delay buying: Nothing found for 2008 Ping- spree.html//
Ouch. All the American dealerships that diversified into Nipponese iron are going to be unhappy.
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Nissan Motor Co., Japan's third- largest automaker, said profit in the second-half will go to ``zero'' because of lower sales in the U.S. and a stronger yen.
Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn made the comments in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, which were confirmed by Nissan spokesman Simon Sproule. Last month, the company forecast second-half net income of 33.7 billion yen ($348 million) and operating profit of 78.4 billion yen.
The yen has gained 16 percent against the dollar and 34 percent against the euro this year, eroding Tokyo-based Nissan's overseas earnings. Lower demand for Sentra small cars and Pathfinder sport-utility vehicles drove the carmaker's U.S. sales down 34 percent in October as the industry heads to the lowest annual tally in 15 years.
Anyone got a problem with Bloomie's headlines?
Seems there's way too much juxtaposition, and not enough causality.
Timing problems are understandable, but this just makes the picture more cloudy.
For instance, NZD and AUD supposedly advance:
Australia, N.Z. Dollars Give Up Gains as Regional Stocks Slide - Bloomberg.com
Says the article.
Data says down 0.8% + in both cases, halfway through the trading day.
Funny looking advance.
But more generally I get this feeling that there are market movements and "reasons" jammed together without much checking of why traders moved a certain way.
Can anyone corroborate?
CC
Personally, I'm a big fan of the word special. I use it all the time.
They are also building lots of new towers in Chicago. No holes in the ground that I know of, they are further along. And they don't dig deep here because of underground tunnels under the city.
They too are these all-glass buildings. With modern construction technique is it actually cheaper to put in a big window than to build a normal exterior wall?
In Chicago I would not want to heat a place with a wall of windows.
Personally, I'm a big fan of the word special. I use it all the time.
As in: Isn't that special.
Dated July 12, 2008
Smack down time in the South - again
SMYRNA, Tenn. Every workday for 27 years, Kathy Ward has inspected row after row of cars in various stages of assembly at the mile-long Nissan plant the largest auto assembly plant under one roof in North America.
A Smyrna native, Mrs. Ward is not bashful about telling anyone how proud she is of her job and her company.
We get to drive a new car every day, and weve never had a layoff, she said ...
The average hourly wage among the Nissan plants 5,550 workers is $25, Nissan spokesman Steve Parrett said.
Comrade Misean is Dope,
Shangri-La (Hotel/Condo) which recently completed, and hasn't had units pop up on MLS, sold the top end stuff at $2,000 per sq ft. (eg penthouse) link for more examples
Barley, re: Agreed. They already purchased the land (once). So, they co-sign a loan on a chunk of land that they already own and might pay 100M to keep ownership. If you beleive this...I've got a Bridge to sell you for $10M - and its all yours. I'll draw up the papers.
No the city is on the hook for both the $193mn (-$36mn up front to them in cash) FIG loan , and the $100mn loan they wrote from the capital fund. If Millennium does not pay back both the capital fund loan, and the FIG loan in full -- then the city has full ownership, but must make good on the guarantee to Fortress. Not related, but I think S&P reaffirmed their AA credit rating post-deal (which admittedly is worth less than dog poo).
Tony Danza,
The project is not even 50% sold. 1,100 units. three hundred some designated as subsidized housing. Of the remaining 700+ they have only done one phase of sales which hasn't sold out. so they've only pre-sold (?)230 units.
The costs were not $1,000 per sq ft to build. The billion dollar tag comes from the whole community (cleanup, roads, sewer, community centre, etc), they also have adjacent land that will be developed in the future using those services they installed.
If Millennium burns through the loan and contingency, the city is on the hook for $257mn. If all were market price, that's an average price of $230k (if the subsidized housing was 40% off market price, then the average market price would be $267k). The market will be terrible, but there is a fair amount of high end units. If that were not enough, they have claim to Millennium's other properties and the personal holdings of its directors. I don't think the city will lose money on the project. I've done the math.
Anyone been to Bahgkok in the last decade to see the results of what is transpiring in Canada & the USSA?
Concrete skeletons dot the skyline.
Covered in mould and weeds.
Welcome to the 3rd world folks. Are you going to take the financial medicine you imposed on 1997 Asia???
regards
Here's a chart of the inventory run-up this spring...
Realtor Websites By RealPageMaker | 1-877-776-2537
I think Vancouver can stave off bankruptcy until shortly after the Olympics. Just a gut feel.
Geez, I was feeling pretty good about selling my SRS at $195 today (it settled at about $177)...but with all this bad CRE news after the bell...I'm just hoping I get another chance to buy back in cheaply before it goes to the moon...
Dated 2001 which means they are settled in. Probably the only good jobs left in the area for a 400 mi radius
Johnson Controls stock is 14.65 and green...
Mi-Tech owns a factory in Canada - sub of STeel Tech
CalsonicKansei North America: The company will build two new plants in Mississippi, a 25,000-sq.-ft. (2,250-sq.-m.) facility adjacent to Nissan's factory and a 150,000-sq.-ft. plant (13,500-sq.-m.) in Vicksburg.
The two facilities will supply front-end modules, exhaust systems, catalytic converters and A/C plumbing.
Johnson Controls: The company will build a 120,000-sq.-ft. (10,800-sq.-m.) facility in the Canton Industrial Center that will supply vehicle seats.
Lextron/Visteon Automotive Systems: The newly formed partnership between Visteon and Lextron will build a 97,500-sq.-ft. (8,775-sq.-m.) plant adjacent to Nissan's factory that will supply front-end modules and cockpit modules.
Mi-Tech Steel: The company will build an 80,000-sq.-ft. (7,200-sq.-m.) plant in the Canton Industrial Center that will process coiled steel.
PPG: The company will supply automotive coatings for vehicles and plastic bumpers, as well as participating in the Systems Electro-Coating joint venture (described immediately below).
Systems Electro-Coating: The joint venture between PPG Industries and Systems Consultants Associates will build a 125,000-sq.-ft. (11,250-sq.-m.) plant in the Canton Industrial Center that will apply an anti-corrosion electrodeposition primer to sheet-metal components and parts.
T&WA: The company will build a 36,000-sq.-ft. (3,240-sq.-m.) plant adjacent to Nissan's factory that will supply tire and wheel assemblies.
Tower Automotive: The company will build a 160,000-sq.-ft. (14,400-sq.-m.) plant in the Canton Industrial Center that will supply vehicle frames.
Eight Supplier Facilities Will Cluster Near Nissan's Mississippi Plant - Site Selection Online Insider
Another site that covers Vancouver <a href="http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewforum.php?f=8>here Normally full of bulls, slowly sinking in that they were wrong. Lot of realtors and speculators there.
There used to be a public blog called Van-Housing.blogspot.com, but is no longer so. One of the former readers set up this which carries charts of sales/listings, months of inventory, etc for Vancouver and the valley.
October numbers
I think the gold metals will be made of lead and painted orage.
I am posting the Nissan info because it shows in minature why, and how, the auto industry is tied to the economy. I find the linkage fascinating for some strange reason.
Off-topic - Has anyone in California heard about the potential impact of this mess on projects in tax increment financing districts? It is my understanding California loves financing new development that way.
All this also ties into Com Real Estate. That Nissan factory and its web feeds into all of it. That is just one plant with its auxillaries..
If you're too lazy to click through to the october numbers link.
Listings/Sales = 14 months of inventory. -4% MoM or -8% QoQ for now, will accelerate again come spring
How quickly are things adjusting elsewhere right now?
This is like when I wrote code a million years ago. All these routines weaving in and out.
Every thread on here, this blog, is just a part of the whole program. All intertwined. Its beautiful.
Sorry, I will stop.
Bond Girl,
TIF's to empty subdivissions in Inland empire are gonna suck wind.
Quite common, my understanding...but hardly my forte.
Nostrovia,
it aint 1929 folks.
the people who read this are watching and learning from people who dont build tools, tools are now written.
hat tip crcompanion.
a written tool.
Heckuva mid-cycle slowdown, huh?
BC also has this to deal with.
Spread of Bark Beetles Kills Millions of Acres of Trees in West - NY Times
"it aint 1929 folks."
Correct, this is more like 1873.
ova,
"Every thread on here, this blog, is just a part of the whole program. All intertwined. Its beautiful.
Sorry, I will stop."
I remember looking at some code a few years back. It was rather odd. Somebody added a patch to it (open source) and commented to the original coder something to the effect:
Damn dude! How much crack did you smoke before writing this crap.
Nostrovia,
What about the Canadian banks? Any predictions on how long they'll last?
Quotes for RY, CM, TD, ... - Yahoo! Finance
The Royal Bank now has a larger market cap the Citibank.
Quotes for RY, C - Yahoo! Finance
Victoria (on Vancouver island) is due for a major RE correction as well. As for Cdn banks - its not going to be as bad as the US (they've already fallen in sympathy) but they will (imo) get smoked on their CRE exposure. There is SOME HELOC exposure as well..
Well this is probably not a good thing:
Mr. Mortgage’s Guide to the TRUTH! » ABX & CMBX Go Parabolic – ‘Carnage’
Nostrovia,
They will all go bankrupt in the next year. Canada will go to the IMF and have to sell off parts of the country to India, the United States, and China to pay off the loan. Millions of white people will have to return to elitist white land where they can be lazy and unemployed. Short the loonie.
Anyone want to bet when CIBC loses its first $100 billion?
Whwbuywhenucanrent? writes:
What about the Canadian banks? Any predictions on how long they'll last?
Quotes for ...td, BMO, BNS - Yahoo! Finance t=1y
3-6 months...
//Whwbuywhenucanrent? writes:
What about the Canadian banks? Any predictions on how long they'll last?//
whybuywhenucanrent when ucansquat but whynot when ucanlie
satan
I think CIBC can survive until the country is sold off piece by piece
EHP - how quickly are thing adjusting elsewhere? Depends on where the elsewhere is. Stocks:
\t\t\t\t\tTime
CIT GROUP INC\t2.60\t-0.89\t-25.50\t21,674,775\t11/18
GENWORTH FINANCI\t1.12\t-0.22\t-16.42\t23,123,610\t11/18
MEDTRONIC INC\t31.60\t-4.82\t-13.23\t34,530,290\t11/18
MACY'S INC\t6.09\t-0.92\t-13.12\t21,394,415\t11/18
LIZ CLAIBORNE\t3.19\t-0.45\t-12.36\t2,555,108\t11/18
MBIA INC\t5.02\t-0.69\t-12.08\t7,783,782\t11/18
SEARS HOLDINGS\t30.19\t-3.63\t-10.73\t3,421,583\t11/18
DISCOVER FINANCI\t8.06\t-0.91\t-10.14\t7,613,482\t11/18
This is just double digit % , losses from S&P. The third figure is %. SLM was close too.
Hong Kong appears to have a cold:
INDEX\tVALUE\tCHANGE\t%CHANGE\tTIME
HANG SENG INDEX\t12,915.89\t-613.64\t-4.54%\t11/18
HANG SENG COMPOSITE INDX\t1,761.33\t-82.24\t-4.46%\t11/18
S&P/HKEx LargeCap Index\t16,018.46\t-743.56\t-4.44%\t11/18
S&P/HKEx GEM Index\t358.06\t-10.72\t-2.91%\t11/18
HS FREEFLOAT COMP INDEX\t1,828.13\t-87.01\t-4.54%\t11/18
HANG SENG HK FREEFLT IX\t1,359.67\t-60.13\t-4.24%\t11/18
HANG SENG CHINA ENT INDX\t6,598.35\t-369.74\t-5.31%\t11/18
HANG SENG CHINA AFF.CRP\t2,791.78\t-127.88\t-4.38%\t11/18
HS MAINLAND FREEFLOAT IX\t3,639.76\t-187.58\t-4.90%\t11/18
HANG SENG 50 INDEX\t1,802.18\t-87.98\t-4.65%\t11/18
HANG SENG HK 25 INDEX\t1,300.38\t-59.05\t-4.34%\t11/18
HANG SENG MAINLAND25 IX\t4,341.96\t-233.80\t-5.11%\t11/18
HANG SENG H-FINANCIALS\t8,806.67\t-509.83\t-5.47%\t11/18
So, thread music, at this speed and content:
YouTube - The Velvet Underground - White Light/White Heat
Thank Uncle Ho that Hanoi is up. Whew.
CC
EVP - I also think of Vancouver as my home town. I did not grow up there but spent good many years. Fantastic city, but bloody expensive, especially given that it has very few decent jobs.
With some luck, I might soon afford to go back!
I have to tell you that putting "satan" on irritating was a wonderful feeling. Then I wiped him out.
Fear me, I am all powerful.
Someone else posted as me, not that I care, just an FYI
CC,
Good to see you in a serious mood. I was talking about house prices if it makes any difference. Speaking of the Hang Seng, the Chinese amateur investors are bound to fall for a sucker's rally no? or is everyone holding on to their cash instead for a long time now
MrM,
We shall live like Kings then.
I am naked.. wheee........
Whwbuywhenucanrent? writes:
What about the Canadian banks? Any predictions on how long they'll last?
Are you just trying to be provocative, or do you have something to add
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Whwbuywhenucanrent? writes:
What about the Canadian banks? Any predictions on how long they'll last?
Are you just trying to be provocative, or do you have something to add
there goes satan posting under my name again.
back to firefox, and turning on the filter for the first time -- thanks Cooper for the add-o
Curious. I have no inside info, but I don't believe their assertions that all is well either. I was expecting one to go by now.
Just south of Vancouver a 'burb called Surrey, a huge project was cancelled a few weeks ago.
Hey - don't downplay what's happening - one of those Surrey projects was not only cancelled - it was set on fire and disappeared in a ball of flame.
And so he says to me, you want to be a bad guy? and I say Yeah Baby! I want to be bad! I says Churchill space ponies I'm making gravy without the lumps! Ah ha ha ha ha haaaaa!!!!!
was out this afternoon, what the f bad news caused us to end in the green today?
was out this afternoon, what the f bad news caused us to end in the green today?
lurker
Somebody spilled blue on yellow.
Welcome to the 3rd world folks. Are you going to take the financial medicine you imposed on 1997 Asia???
George Soros, Warren Buffet, Michael Steinhardt.
Clinton's cabinet: Madeline Allbright (Secretary of State, i.e. Foreign Minister), Robert Rubin (US Treasurer), Mickey Kantor (Secretary for Trade, in charge of GATT and WTO), William Cohen (Secretary for Defence), Sandy Berger (National Security Adviser)
Alan Greenspan was head of the Federal Reserve. Martin Wolfensohn was head of the World Bank. Stanley Fischer was running the IMF (as Chief Economist there; in 2001 he became Governor of the Bank of Israel).
Paul Krugman was writing articles deriding the Japan model.
nameyourpoison.intime
but I am making millions in biz lines of credit.....
hahhaahhahahahahaha
EHP,
Thanks for the Vancouver real-estate link. We're looking to move back to either Vancouver or Vancouver Island in another couple of years.
Glad to see that reality is starting to hit real-estate there. Night/day difference between what I used to read on the Canadian real-estate blogs last year
Alan Greenspan was head of the Federal Reserve. Martin Wolfensohn was head of the World Bank. Stanley Fischer was running the IMF (as Chief Economist there; in 2001 he became Governor of the Bank of Israel).
..........shall we say dream team?.....^&*
Somebody spilled blue on yellow.
Elvis
I like in a additive color spectrum however
err live gah, nevermind, going to drink
Hey - don't downplay what's happening - one of those Surrey projects was not only cancelled - it was set on fire and disappeared in a ball of flame.
and old downtown wharehouse basments are baited with ripple and a carton of smokes..to create a parking lot.
hey, yholdwhenucanfry?
Anyone been to Bahgkok in the last decade to see the results of what is transpiring in Canada & the USSA?
will you take the medicine you imposed on 1997 Asia???
No thanks.
That's why we had Bangkok test it first.
Silly boy.
Their collateral in that worst case scenario would be ownership of land + 1,100 condo units + Millennium's other properties + Millennium's directors private finances.
Minus $750M as the original lender has first dibs on everything.
While the city will certainly not go broke over this, it is quite possible they will have ended up giving away a big chunk of premium land for basically nothing.
We are all smarter, whiter...
You've been misinformed - whites are a visible minority in Vancouver.
Whybuywhenucanrent? ,
best I could find quickly from previous threads but I know there were more complete arguments. If you're just another pseudonym for satan to post under, well then you've already read it, if not enjoy
Luxury Condo will be the "internet Stock" of the next 5 years.
It pisses me off when the banks say we won't modify the principle of the loan. Its the Fking taxpayer money that's keeping them afloat. Sheila is right . Tell the banks "you do whatever the Fk we tell you". "US gov't says modify you 'say how much?'".
EHP,
Many have had trolls steal there names.
No reason to get all worked up about it.
Writing style is hard to copy.
Seb is probably the most impersonated.
People always forgot his signature S. at end of post.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
I gotta problem timmy.
38% of my gross is MORE than I pay for my 15 yr fixed that Im into.
That's why we had Bangkok test it first.
Silly boy.
Broward Horne
uhhh, whose gonna be runnin the Obama cabinet?
The Devil's Bastard Son,
The loan is not $750mn, unless I'm very wrong. It was $193mn from Fortress to Millennium and guaranteed by the city of Vancouver (from which Mil. paid Van $36mn up front). In which case I've already accounted for having to pay Fortress in full.
The $1bn was for all the infrastructure and amenities and the condos. The infrastructure and amenities will serve adjacent sites that will be developed later so its not all tied to the athlete's village
The city will most likely not make what they had hoped, but they shouldn't lose money either.
"Millions of white people will have to return to elitist white land"
Racists are like cockroaches...there are always more of them than you thought possible.
38% of my gross is MORE than I pay for my 15 yr fixed that Im into.
Then extend it to a 20 or 30 year loa
If I were a government...
And I was refinancing my debt...
Into short-term bills...
And there was a panic...
And people wanted to sell...
And I needed the money...
I'd freeze redemptions...
"Temporarily"
And pay deferred interest...
Someday.
fried,
"Racists are like cockroaches.."
Quit insulting cockroaches.
Next you're gonna compare US Auto industry executives to rocks. Rocks are gonna be pissed. And they can hurt you. They can also telepathecly call meteors to fall on your head.
Nostrovia,
and make the payment 40% less than equivalent rents?
pfft, I'll live in a tent first, and rent it to my 3 kids.
EHP - my serious mood is fleeting.
Hong Kong will show some swings, but ultimately come back to lower homeostatic equilibrium. The analysts are generally good, the HK/ Ch, equation is fairly well understood, the currency wienies know how to make money and hedge risk, and there's an appreciation of collapsing final demand. I'm just not sure they're going to break out of the dichotomy of entrepot trade and fin sector centre.
Thus, down, secular. Minor pops possible in intermediation, old (and new) battles with Shanghai might provoke this. Can't see too much upside with certain finished market products tanking and intermediate factor input gainers now looking a bit sick. No confidence in new tech. Prop bubble and the problems of 12 years of not dealing with triangular debt on the big country side not making anyone's predictions easy.
That said:
YouTube -
Best
CC
uhhh, whose gonna be runnin the Obama cabinet?
There are three nominees so far -
Jack Daniels
Jose Cuevo
and
Johnny Walker
[I gotta problem timmy.
38% of my gross is MORE than I pay for my 15 yr fixed that Im into]
That's a 20th century problem. Today all you need to do is a cash-out-refi. Take it to 60%. Problem solved.
where's byz ruins?
the worst ARM ever about to get cut off are the T-bills.
mr broward horne.
If there is further interest in the Fortress/Millennium/Vancouver/Olympic village financing, City officials stay silent on $100M loan for 2010 athletes' village is probably the single most complete article (see related articles for the rest)
The Fortress loan was $193mn, and the city stepped in when Fortress couldn't affordably raise the last $80mn. The loan up to $100mn is coming out of $200mn cash on hand, and backed by the $2.7bn property endowment fund (not capital fund as I previously stated)
Cracker
One is assuming that there is equity in the home. Walkaways will walkaway no matter how low their payments are. If you have a 15 year fixed I assume you have significant equity in the home.
If you have a 15 year fixed I assume you have significant equity in the home..
but I bought in 2006, how can I have equity?
Tim & the Xmas Miracle writes:
Luxury Condo will be the "internet Stock" of the next 5 years.
It pisses me off when the banks say we won't modify the principle of the loan. Its the Fking taxpayer money that's keeping them afloat. Sheila is right . Tell the banks "you do whatever the Fk we tell you". "US gov't says modify you 'say how much?'".
Tim & the Xmas Miracle | 11.18.08 - 9:29 pm | #
Note that Sheila is not telling them to do that. We may wish, but she doesn't say that.
Our government only believes banks should be forgiven their debts, not anyone else.
Cracker
put the keys in the mailbox and the kids in the bed of the pickup with your gun rack... you're done
Tim & the Xmas Miracle writes:
Cracker
One is assuming that there is equity in the home. Walkaways will walkaway no matter how low their payments are. If you have a 15 year fixed I assume you have significant equity in the home.
Tim & the Xmas Miracle | 11.18.08 - 9:40 pm | #
He won't walk if his payment is less than rent.
P.S.
It appears there's a tent city here right outside the University of Washington. It's right in the middle of the dorms.
I don't kmow if it holds students or homeless people, I avoided it as both are always asking for money.
Go for it, Cracker!
The loan is not $750mn, unless I'm very wrong.
It has been widely reported that Fortress holds a ~$750M mortgage on the Olympic Village property.
comrade artichoke,
Both Bair and Paulson are strongly opposed to principal modification. Bair's plan, supported by Paulson, is to only pay interest on a portion of the principal with the non-interest portion to be paid when the owner sells. Even then it's a last resort after lengthening the amortization and lowering the interest rate.
I can't remember if it is part of the same proposal, but any modification would be tied to the government guaranteeing 50% of any losses (which is huge because there is no principal writedown, so huge mortgage minus worthless house = free money for banks)
Re: HK "I'm just not sure they're going to break out of the dichotomy of entrepot trade and fin sector centre.
Thus, down, secular."
I'd have to agree w/ CC that HK's final re-invention would be as a theme park except for lack of theme.
But the people are about the smartest, hardest working I've known, so I'll never count them out, just as a matter of principle.
YouTube - Motley Crue - Shout At The Devil '97
my first album, yes, delicious vinyl my mom broke adn threw away in the
--
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
Nemo,
Crap,
I'm invested in a fund called the
G eneral
A dvanced
R evenue
B oosting
A cclerating &
G rowth
E nhancement fund.
Guess that was a dumb idea.
I'll be back, but only after I load the guns, and check my fund's NAV.
The Devil's Bastard Son,
Check it out with Fortress or Bloomberg.
It may be a $750mn site, but the loan is only $193mn. So they used the 'value' instead of the price.
Local tv was very very late to the game in reporting the housing bubble, and they're making up for lost time from what I can tell
comrade artichoke
She is in essence saying that. The government would backstop the new loan up to 50% and original lender will collect service fees from the gov't
Bottom Line the banks are going to get your money one way or another. I'd rather see it go to a homeowner first.
Also she is only asking for 25 out of 700 billion for this pla
Anak,
If there is a global stock market rally (let's say America, Britain, Germany, France, etc) of 10-20%+.
The H-Shares would follow, no? Everything seems to be closely correlated for better or for worse right now
Stevens of Alaska Lost
Another developerBS moment. They claim having presold $300 million (100+ @ $3m avg) on a $180 million project?
Doesn't even pass the sniff test.
I don't kmow if it holds students or homeless people, I avoided it as both are always asking for money.
It could be bankers. And automobile execs too.
When all the world's economies fall at the same rate at the same time, all countries are not pained the same.
This is what is known as "rich's law."
The higher the country's standard of living, the more pain is felt. Because the U.S. is the fattest, most bloated country with the most people doing useless jobs, and the most consumerism bought with the most debt, the U.S. will feel more pain than any other country.
Canada is way down the pain list. They were always more down to earth and less willing to go into debt or spend beyond their means. Plus...they have all those natural resources and commodities that a recovering world (ex-U.S.) will soon need.
$889/sqft...that is not insane. It is the premium to live in a box in the sky in canada's 'bestest' city.
Wow. Just 3 years ago I visited a guy living in one of the last apartment buildings on the waterfront 1/2 mile south of Stanley Park. Small 1 bedroom on the 20th floor with garage parking and he paid $1K/month.
Seemed really cheap compared to Seattle.
EHP - your numbers aren't consistent with the article you posted.
The $193M you cite is what the city gets for selling the land (based on project completing as planned) - that IS NOT the Fortress loan.
There is a $190M connection between Fortress and the city, however that is not Fortress commitment with Millenium, it is the city's "TARP" on part of Millenium's loan from Fortress. It is NOT "the Fortress loan".
The article doesn't mention the original (two-tranche) financing of Millenium by Fortress to the tune of $750M ($760M, according to some sources) - in fact it never really touches on how Millenium got financed.
Stevens of Alaska Lost
And the intertubes wept.
EHP - thanks much. You ask a specific question and then do not have the good grace to reply.
Harrumph.
Protocol, man.
CC
Cracker,
Hmmm...what would your mom do to my extensive Black Sabbath collection?
Nostrovia,
RCAW, JJL, Craig:
Last night I mentioned a file with SPX data and some sector stuff. Here's a "master" workbook of sorts that includes several different worksheets:
Public Box from Box.net - Share your files securely online
Hopefully, there isn't any trouble downloading it. Anyone looking at it will likely have more trouble figuring out references and my lack of notation!
Berkshire's Credit Risk Soars on $37 Billion Bet
Berkshire's Credit Risk Soars on $37 Billion Bet (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
The cost of protecting against default by Warren Buffett's AAA rated Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has almost tripled in two months, a sign of just how skittish investors have become amid the global financial crisis.
14 day hand recount.
14 יום לדוח היד.
14 ימים זה מה שאני מחשיב להחזיק קשר ארוך טווח.
14 day war coming.
It may be a $750mn site, but the loan is only $193mn.
Once again - the $193M is what the city gets for selling the land, assuming project completes as planned. The construction loan is $750M/$760M depending on source - of which $190M has been TARPed by the City.
For the city to meet expecations on this deal, the 1000+ condos will have to sell for an average of right around $1M a pop.
It is quite possible they will lose some money on this - and whoever let the Fortress guys first in line needs to be fired - but the city is highly unlikely to actually go broke over the deal, as bad as it is.
I'd have to agree w/ CC that HK's final re-invention would be as a theme park except for lack of theme
In Soviet America, screenplay writes YOU!
HBO Developing Futuristic Immigrant Drama AMERICATOWN!! --
Ain't It Cool News: The best in movie, TV, DVD, and comic book news.
"AmericaTown - What if, in the year 2045, Americans found themselves emigrating en masse to other lands and founding communities on foreign soil?"
This dang 22-y-o Japanese chick/student is flirting with me in Starbucks. She's short but got that Korean / Northern Chinese build. Really aggressive. Surprisingly loud and now laughing to get my attention.
Dang, I wish i didn't have to keep putting on my glasses to check her expressions.
I can't help wondering what it's like to grow up in eighteen solid years of a deflationary environment. Probably can't deal well with Mr. No Commitment, though.
REBear
I'd like to believe it is due to his recent investment in banks but it is probably related to his home and insurance businesses.
Do you remember how a year ago I said there would come a time when a lot of hedge funds would be going out of biz and the rest would be going short?
I think that time is near, if not at hand. I've had to modify my thinking and strategy based on this.
Today, the Russell 2000 came within four points of being down 50% (on a price basis) from its all-time high 16 months ago. It might hit the halfway down mark tomorrow. For frame of reference, the S&P 500 lost exactly 50% on a price basis from top to bottom in the last bear market. And we're just getting warmed up in this one.
Earlier, I said the R2000 would go as low as mid-400s. Now, I'm thinking a lot lower. Maybe not right away. But eventually, even the low 300s. So, I've had to scramble and grab a few more TWMs.
It's been kinda a long rough two-year ride rolling the dice on TWM.
But baby's got new shoes!
Broward - she's prob from Kyoto. Assertive.
CC
You can't buy it if they ain't got it-- true story......
Okay, I'm rehabing a 1,000 sq ft cabin on a 3 acre pond in ruralsville just east of Big D.
So far from Lowes and others we have put down new wood floors, new paint, bathroom tile, wood blinds, woodburning stove etc. The cook stove and refrig were about 30 years old so we decided to walk the dog and replace them.
Sunday morning I purchased a new elec stove and a side by side refrig from Lowes. They promise next day delivery but I wanted them on tuesday (today)because my woodstove was being piped
out. Next day to Lowes meant wednesday. OK, I'm game.
This afternoon I was informed that they only had the floor model stove and did not have the frig. They promised delivery on the 24th.
I washed that sale and went 3 blocks to Home Despot. The poor lady in home decor was doing double duty in appliances so I had to wait for 30 minutes or so. Despot does not carry inventory also but I purchased similar items for delivery on the 21st.
I've been through many recessions and it is the same each time. Retailers cut inventory to bare bones and THEN lose sales.....
Sorry to be off topic but I've noticed for the last year or so that the system, even the cash and carry system is broken.
If indeed we have become a service economy, WHERE'S THE DAMNED SERVICE?
Condos in Vanwhatever. This was way too predictable a year ago last summer!
OK, MS GWM HR here.
It has been a busy day yesterday , we didnot fire anyone yet but we have the lists ready.
I see lot of stupid posts here on why VP and above and why not Analysts.
This is a COST CUTTING exercise...the management wants to survive the next 2 months...the management doesnt think the long term business strategy nowadays.
So what we do is, for example, take the employee list by department in an XL, sort in descending MONTHLY SALARY. Highest has the most risk of being fucked out.
Simple !!!
Dont think we discuss a lot here...past performance etc is BS. We just cut the highest paid and get over with it. MAck will then say..."we are going to have $250 cost savings...our franchise is strong...my dick is strong etc ..."
I feel sorry for the folks who got fired and who are next in line. I feel sorryu for myself that I am doing this shit work. I just posted here to give some perspective.
Ross writes:
You can't buy it if they ain't got it-- true story......
Okay, I'm rehabing a 1,000 sq ft cabin on a 3 acre pond in ruralsville just east of Big D.
Canton Texas, home of Second Tuesday...or Fist Monday.
its all the same day, people.
MD@MS - nice post. Try this for size:
YouTube - Spacemen 3 - "Revolution" Taang! Records
Best
CC
Broward - she's prob from Kyoto. Assertive
Pretty sure of herself for being in her early twenties. Shifted her body so she's actually voicing her conversation at me instead of her friend.
Toying with her little white Great Gatesby racing cap.
Argh.
Laughing.
I'm out of here.
Got a dinner and real sex to get to.
Cracker(Unrated) writes:
where's byz ruins?
Present and accounted for.
WHERE'S THE DAMNED SERVICE?
It's wherever the front-line service folks went to get more than minimum wage.
H-shares up on a worldwide rally? Sure, I suppose. Longer term, you may have HK maintaining it's advantage to SH as a place for mainland companies to list given smoother access to international funds. With everything in China and the world seemingly up for grabs, it's hard for this old man to envision.
And I do think that BH needs some bad...
The Devil's Bastard Son,
After a lot of searching:
finally came across one that mentioned directly a $750mn loan from fortress to millennium
I'll go with what you say as I'm far away right now and have only heard about it on the web. So that would mean there's a lot more on the table -- do you know if the $100mn loan is senior then? Also what was the city supposed to get upon completion/sale from Millennium for the site? Looked for that but didn't come up with the answer
I hate being wrong
are you nuts, deliniate where profits seem ripe in CRE RRE RE per say after you guys jumped the shark?
tell me somethin biz ruins.
Ill tell ya what I got.
I got a big build out in 2004 laid in, I got a deteriorating workforce, and a decling customer base in rural Oregon.
it full tilt panic.
TDBS,
Never mind proceeds from the sale, re-read your last post.
cracker buy crate of jack daniels, immerse
We always figured Paulson was orchestrating the PPT pumps by sliding a slush fund to some of his buddies.
Some of wondered if those buddies were piling up losses as the market sank, with the understanding that Uncle would make them whole somehow.
What if part of the TARP was designed for this purpose?
It explains why Paulson was so panicky to get his hands on the TARP. It explains why the first TARP money was rushed out so fast, with such secrecy, and why they still won't account for it. It explains why Kash Carry pleaded the fifth. And it explains why Paulson switched direction without authorization or prior explanation and then suddenly lost interest in the rest of the TARP money.
Just another conspiracy theory.
Of course, if AIG was part of it, it also explains why AIG's losses got so large (mysteriously).
Comrade C-
Henny Sender is a woman. You can recognize her by the holes she cuts in her shoes where her corns are.
Anak - this is precisely the conversation that I've had with HK analysts and traders, Shanghai boosters and market preparation people, and others - it all got a little tribal in the end, in my humble opinion.
Can't see that it's gone away, however...
Two songs at once?
YouTube - Lee Hazlewood - Nancy Sinatra, Some Velvet Morning
CC
Dear EHP - Do you still think there could be a +20% bouceback in the markets ?
I dont see it as a possibility with UK nearing collapse. That would take the hedge funds down massively. The market hasnt priced a big country collapse.
Also any insight into the travails of the old man. Warren Buffet ?
BRK CDS is sky rocketing and that is big news everywhere... (particularly here among asian traders)
I'm invested in a fund called the
G eneral
A dvanced
R evenue
B oosting
A cclerating &
G rowth
E nhancement fund.
Guess that was a dumb idea.
Comrade Misean is Dope
ROTFLMAO I now have Pinot up my nose.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I dont see it as a possibility with UK nearing collapse. That would take the hedge funds down massively. The market hasnt priced a big country collapse. - Thaksin
Guy on NPR this afternoon said Great Britain should be called Big Iceland.
Dear giving advice: where is this going big picture? real, man (sorry, person) might I expect the Dow to exceed 8500 during my reasonable life expectancy: (hard to compute due to the recent financial collapse.) better to out compete your neighbor by buying a more modern weapo
CC: it all got a little tribal in the end.
That's one of the real HK ironies now-- the dynamic growth is amid barbaric institutions of the north. The situation ought to render a unique role for HK, and not just for finance. And yet, all you get is condescension and superior airs. So you just grit your teeth and smile.
HK will remain a hideout for non-US wealthy people. Why?
Capital Gains tax rate = 0%
Interest Income tax rate = 0%
Dividend Tax rate = 0%
Top Earned Income Tax rate = 16%
Easier to stay wealthy (if you are already) if you live in Hong Kong.
Americans are the only citizens in the world that experience global taxation. Non-resident citizens of the UK, Canada, Australia, France, Germany, etc. ad nauseum only pay the local tax rate and not the tax rates of the country of their citizenship...
Henny Sender didn't work at the SCMP, she worked at the Far Eastern Economic Review and the Wall Street Journal for years...
Sorry for the rant RE Lowes and Home Despot but it reminded me of an incident during the 74-75 recession.
I had a neighbor who owned a flooring store. Nice older guy, WWII vet who bootstrapped his way up without more than a HS education. His son was a recent Wharton MBA grad. He told his dad that we were in a severe recession and advised him to get 'very lean' in his words.
My neighbor cut back his operating hours, layed off 2 salesmen cut the advertizing budget and reduced his inventory. Guess what! His sales declined 30%.
Granted, his sales would have gone down 10 to 15% anyway but retailing is like contrary opinion investing. Expand when others are fleeing and get 'lean' during the good times.
Just a thought. Times have changed. I'm watching "Adam's Rib" on TCM and they are showing the part where Tracy and Hepburn are having a mortgage burning party...
Thaksin
IMO Depression Episode 2 Revenge of Deflation is already priced in. The only unknown is the duration of the recession. NO one knows... i think at least 2-4 years of negative growth is assumed by many.
VIX making a nice move up into expiry. Gotta think we bust through the lows tomorrow or Thurs.
$VIX - SharpCharts Workbench : StockCharts.com
I wish that I had the skill to write this, but I don't so I'm stealing it.
Stoneleigh: A 1930s style depression is not impossible by any means. If governments could avoid a depression merely by printing money, then one would never have happened. Unfortunately, depressions do happen, because money printing (monetizing debt) doesnt cause inflation (ie an increase in the effective money supply) during a hurricane of credit destruction. Traditional money supply measures dont capture the full picture.
Credit functions as a money equivalent during the expansion phase, but loses the quality of moneyness once expansion morphs into contraction. As the vast majority of the effective money supply is currently credit, the collapse of credit will crash the money supply. As is already happening, printing merely send money into a giant black hole of credit destruction, thanks to the hoarding mentality that has taken hold amongst banks due to the collapse of trust. Banks know what toxic waste they hold in their own vaults, and certainly arent going to trust their colleagues who almost certainly hold the same.
Attempts to stimulate interbank lending are failing miserably, because you cant print trust. Once a deleveraging event has begun, it will proceed to its natural conclusion - the point where the (small amount of) remaining debt is acceptably collateralized to the (few) remaining creditors. All governments can do is to make it worse in the meantime.
We are still in the very early stages of the deleveraging process, where toxic assets are being shielded from the harsh light of day, so to speak. Eventually, there will be a mark-to-market event, however hard governments and central bankers try to avoid one, and that will precipitate a firesale of assets at pennies on the dollar.
Such an event cannot be avoided, at least partially due to the creation of perverse incentives in the derivatives market. For instance, allowing a third party to take out a credit default swap against a company they do not own is analogous to allowing me to take out fire insurance on your home, thereby giving me an incentive to burn it down for profit. We have yet to see the burning down for profit phase, but it is coming, and when it does, the scale of counterparty risk in the CDS market will also be revealed.
A large percentage of companies will not be able to collect on winning bets, and will therefore not be able to pay out on losing ones in turn. This will turn into a cascade event in a $62 trillion market, the effect of which will dwarf the credit destruction weve seen so far.
This event is truly global - thanks to the tight coupling in global financial markets, contagion inevitably spreads. The use of derivatives intended to mitigate risk has in fact led to systemic risk. Theres a reason why Warren Buffet refers to derivatives as financial weapons of mass destruction.
If you follow the global media, rather than just the blinkered North American version, you will see how many countries are already teetering on the brink as a result of the credit crunch. Check out Iceland, or Pakistan, the Ukraine, Spain, the UK, Ireland, much of eastern Europe and many more. Many of those countries had far worse housing bubbles than the US and have much further to fall as a result.
To imagine Canada to be immune from such a conflagration is simply fanciful. Our real estate excesses have been less extreme, but our banking system is vulnerable, and our export economy will take an enormous hit.
Have you noticed the extent to which shipping is collapsing worldwide? Check out the Baltic Dry index for a leading indicator of the effect of the credit crunch on the real economy. The letters of credit that used to be routine are no longer available, so goods do not move. We live in a just-in-time economy and the paralysis of shipping will eventually lead to empty shelves.
This crisis is very much larger than merely real estate. Liquidity, the supply of which ultimately depends on trust, is the lubricant in the economic engine. Without a sufficient supply, that engine will seize up, just as it did in the 1930s.
With no means to connect buyers and sellers, people can starve amid plenty, as they did then. In the 1930s both resources and real skills were plentiful, expectations were nowhere near so inflated and we had none of the structural dependencies on cheap energy and credit that we have now. Without cheap energy and cheap credit, our highly complex socioeconomic system cannot function. A long and painful readjustment is not just likely, but inevitable.
The Automatic Earth
Sorry about the length, but I think it summarizes where we are at.
NW
Thaksin is that your real name?
WAs there in 8/07 when the first credit freeze kicked in and I could only walk around and gape at all of the construction and wonder "how long 'til it hits here?"
Question answered.
Seriously, the cabbie took us from the airport to our hotel and we drove through nice neighborhoods that would run $300K here and they were in the $2M range per the cabbie.
Mebbe they can convince Shrub that they're really in WA and line up for the TARP.
Joe writes:
Anyone think the rally continues tomorrow? OpEx is coming and we're under max pain by a bit.
Joe | 11.18.08 - 7:33 pm | #
Since September 10, every single Wednesday has been a down day on the Dow. Of course, past performance doesn't equal future returns...
In canada now blackb'ry sux...
Anak - but seriously I've been trying to tell my HK office that things may well be comprehensively fooked, and I've got nothing but boosterism in response.
Is there a local optimism bubble that I need to be aware of?
Many thanks
CC
Not every Paulson is a loser...
John Paulson Buys Mortgages After U.S. Drops TARP Purchases - Bloomberg.com
Anak, Counterpoint
Are you guys US ex-pats or Native...whatever?
Without knowledge of your office's rationale or their function, I cannot comment.
But the points made by HK Vol above, as you know, are true. The well off are loathe to leave here, and the middle class are ever striving to join their ranks.
So the "Monaco model" may have some validity? Problem is, HK is a lot bigger than Monaco. Oh, and the gambling is in Macao...
NW
Anonymous | 11.18.08 - 10:27 pm
The copy/paste monkey was me.
HKer: This partially answers your question about where we are heading and the usefulness of recycling credit from China. I recall that you raised the issue a few threads ago.
"Money" is not "credit", but we have been conditioned to think that they are the same. I do not know what we will consider "money" in a few years.
Gold, silver, casks of tobacco, beaver pelts, wampum beads, who knows. We have used them all at various times in US history.
dryfly
What wireless company do you have?
I think I figured out how the Big 3 thing is going to end in Washington, at least round one.
You have to understand how Obama thinks and views his place in history. He will be pragmatic in trying to protect taxpayer money. But he will be aggressive in creating public works programs to get people employed and spending.
It would be a horrible start for him to have any of the Big Three collapse in chaos. He will do an on-the-fly but comprehensive study of how govt. money can achieve the most job-saving and fiscal stimulus most efficiently, with the greatest chance for at least one healthy domestic car company surviving.
Probably it will result in two of the three companies surviving in some form for now, and letting the other go bust. Triage for the sake of the country and economy.
The shocking thing is that the company that could be sacrificed for the public good is GM.
I doubt that Obama will try to protect taxpayer money.
dryfly,
Ahhh!
Nostrovia,
Thaksin,
I may be looking for it, but I'm not betting on it.
The Devil's Bastard Son, if you're interested
City page on Olympic Village, pg 12 outlines the servicing/amenity budget of the city at $241mn or to be recouped by $40 per sq ft of sales price.
Also found there, the original announcement, $193mn was indeed the purchase price.
Millennium's websites are down, which is probably both stupid and crazy. I think they did have market price units for $350k-400k, which would be crazy if their original budget was $750mn, let alone with the $60mn budget over-run. Don't forget: 1,100 residential units (250 of which will become affordable housing, and another 110 units will become modest market housing
Oh well, the sea wall, LEED stuff, and all the amenities there are pretty cool. Maybe I'll just visit instead of paying the taxes
I do think Obama will work hard to find a solution to the problem. Unfortunately any solution will have to pass muster with the labor unions and other special interests that have backed him. The biggest problem dertoit auto makers have is their excessive compensation levels for workers and incompetent management.
Pajamas Media » Obama Should Think Twice About This Clinton Retread
"OBillary!"
Looking more and more like a bait'n switch.
Tim & the Christmas Miracle
Eye yam what eye yam, as Popeye says.
Why ask?
CC
crispy - i was just about to post that Citi fund liquidation link. Should have figured youd beat me to it by a few hours.
Can you believe that crap?
Makes you think that these fools are now basically just taking giant-size casino gambles to try to stave off an inevitable collapse.
Help me Obama Win Kenobia, your my only hope.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Counterpointer
Just wanna know where your viewpoint is
It is hard to be competitive when your workers are paid about 60% more than your competitors pay their workers. You either charge much higher prices, or sell inferior goods at the same price (or a blend of the two).
A rock and a hard place comes to mind.
CC,
Has China had their banking system audited since Ernst & Young? Such a report would make great companion reading as events unfold
Just a thought. Times have changed. I'm watching "Adam's Rib" on TCM and they are showing the part where Tracy and Hepburn are having a mortgage burning party...
Ross | 11.18.08 - 10:25 pm
In USSA, the mortgage burns you!
I'll go with what you say as I'm far away right now and have only heard about it on the web.
Hey now worries man - as a taxpayer it PISSES ME RIGHT OFF that you and I have to go hunting all over the freaking internet to find out what our potential liability as taxpayers is. The lack of transparency is Abso-fucking-lutely ridiculous.
Though I'm quite sure Rennie has no problem accessing what he needs to know...
On the big (not so big anymore) 3:
There is your Obama New Deal.
Rich:
And the pressure is now going to be on Congress re the automakers since China's apparently thinking of buying GM/Chrysler.
UAW is going to blow a collective gasket since the earlier linked article (sorry, previous thread and I don't have link) from China periodical stated that they want the technology - read this as studying for a while and then disassembling en toto. That's happened with other Chinese purchases.
J6P may not be thrilled with the automakers, but they're friendlier to them than the financials and sure don't want the Chinese to take that.
As to R2k and TWM, I moved out of them about two weeks ago. I don't have your financial expertise but my take has been the same. I keep setting back the expected lows from what I previously anticipated. Ditto with the DJIA...18 months ago, thought that would reenter for good dividend stocks at around 9400 - 9500, and that keeps sinking lower and lower.
[I doubt that Obama will try to protect taxpayer money.
Zephyr ]
No doubt about it. He already said it in no uncertain terms. The national debt is guaranteed to rocket.
Tim etc - my viewpoint depends on the market you wanna hear about. Tonight we've had a session on equities, got back a bit and we've theorized on bonds whatever. Quite easy when you have about a dozen equity classes declining.
There are other graphs going in the wrong direction, but this seems containable:
YouTube - Lee Hazlewood - Nancy Sinatra, Some Velvet Morning
Thanks Norka
I don't think it's any secret that we'll have to monetize. I'm just trying to figure out the mechanism.
(Straight up buying Treasuries on the open market seems so..."bland" for this crowd)
[- creditors take haircut ]
sure, LOL! Ain't. Gonna. Happen.
Detroit is dead. Cars will no longer be made by overpaid workers. The question is whose workers will build cars in the future. Who will replace Detroit?
No doubt about it. He already said it in no uncertain terms. The national debt is guaranteed to rocket.
There's a jobs/tech program for you. Have NASA develop a rocket sufficient to orbit the national debt.
That's going to be one huge mother.
Interesting how non-US topics ALWAYS veer back toward what is happening in the US.
So egocentric, it's downright amazing.
Comrade Counterpointer
I would be very interested on hearing the general public sentiment on the equity markets where you are located. Please excuse me if you already discussed this.
You cannot avoid reality by choosing to believe in a delusion.
"Interesting how non-US topics ALWAYS veer back toward what is happening in the US.
So egocentric, it's downright amazing."
That is what happens when you are the center of the universe.
CC: I gotta hand it to you (and youtube). These gems from the Peckerwood Treasury take some digging. Have you tried Pandora?
"...the paralysis of shipping will eventually lead to empty shelves."
I once saw a great city in which the shops were empty. It is intimidating and ominous to walk into a food shop and see empty shelves.
"In the 1930s both resources and real skills were plentiful..."
That also was true of the city of which I write.
"With no means to connect buyers and sellers..."
Something like that, except that the buyers and sellers were not so helpless. They made their own arrangements if they had cash, especially valuta.
I don't think the situations are comparable, though. Different societies.
What's Bakersfield gonna do?
/Ducks!
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
LOL!!!!
........
The best Tonny Danza thing I've ever heard was from Tupac. He said when he was in jail for rape that the coolest letter he got was from Tonny Danza. Honest to god check out the documentary...
......
Re: Obama and the debt. Wouldn't it be very JFKish and interesting if he got up on the air waves in the first few months and gave a crazy speech encouraging Americans to work harder, buy less, save more, be more efficient... (Granted a freezing of spending might not be the best but the savings would help the banks).
Imagine it worked and we went back to the hustlers that use to be in all of our parents / grandparents...
/end daydream...
Ya know the Pope who brought down Copernicus?
He was American.
CC,
I've uploaded a copy of a China Development Bank letter of credit for Huawei from 2004. Do you think there will be a lot of credit exposure to exporters from banks? I'm thinking along the lines of the factories that have shut down with more liabilities than assets.
Also, if you want to get your HK compatriots to wake up. Tell them to watch any data on cigarette sales, segmented by brand if possible. That would be my quick and dirty measure of the economy's health. Might have to wait until quarterly earnings reports, but it should be a solid indicator
Tim -can't do that, counsel sez I will be encouraged to find opportunities elsewhere.
Fkn counsel.
CC
I've only given this a lot of thought. We need to kill the internet. Immediately.
It's the only way we can keep an inconvenient truth from becoming widely known. Debt based money and exponential growth have real world constraints.
We cannot allow this fact to become generally accepted knowledge. Folks might not honor their promises to work themselves to death for fictitious money.
SHHHHHHHH!
Sorry bout that Observer, where you hail from? Maybe you've got some problems over there we can dissect?
We've tucked the States under a TARP for bedtime and are ready to hear your story.
If you want a really good dividend stock, look at BHP, the world's largest diversified minor. It's getting hammered down every day with the Australian market. But it's the best way to play an Asian economic recovery in late 09, driven by govt. infrastructure spending. And there are two catalysts. One is the ongoing tender to buy Rio Tinto. The other is the interest a Chinese company expressed last spring to take a major stake in BHP. Neither has gone away, while the stock has lost 2/3. Div is about 5%.
I sold some BHP today because I was tired of getting hammered, but there will be a right time to buy.
EHP:
Seriously, where do you come up with this stuff?
Did your parents read you bedtime stories from Business Week?
CC
You work for the Couselette? Well that sucks, censorship. I understand.
Hey Rich
What about buying a commodity ETF index instead?
Rich:
Checked it out last week after your previous post. On the list but I'm out of market for now, except F and TBT.
Geez, that's a hell of a combination.
Pavel re empty shelves:
And that is why I started telling close friends this weekend to seriously stockpile food. I'm going to an Amish food wholesaler this Thursday to load up on canned goods.
Sorry Counsulate?
homedad43, My family I will not discuss. As for me, I just like understanding and making connections. I don't mean to come across as arrogant, but it works best if my knowledge is confronted so it's worth admitting I'm wrong every once in a while.
They were blasting all day today at the Ritz Carlton site; I work 33 feet across and a few floors above it and will be glad when that cursed site shuts down for good.
Next week?
Fingers crossed.
EHP:
Sorry if offended. Meant as a joke.
You just have an awfully large spiderweb.
EvilHenry: an acquaintance runs a hedge fund that never got involved in anything real estate related (except a casino). He's gone full tilt into tobacco over the last year. Don't know how it's working out so far, but I can definitely foresee a, sadly, booming market here.
Tim & the Miracle,
He'd be talking about in-house counsel. The lawyers tell you what you can and can't do. It's best to colour inside the lines they draw for legal liability, and corporate agreeability.
homedad43,
I was not offended, no worries.
I've got Northern NY tv on, things sound unhappy. First on was a school closure, then the state government had some heated arguments about next year's budget -- although they don't seem to discuss any details in public
homedad: we theorized that he's Neel Kashkari, but we were wrong.
EHP: Cigarette sales and economic health? I have noticed a lot more people out behind the building. But there are so many duty free sales, and trans-shipments of smuggled smokes... and what dif could the brand make? Higher share of off price?
EHP i was also going to ask you what line of work you're in. No specifically but more like auto, finance, illegal drug importing, tech, chivalry.... you know the standards....
Either way I enjoy the informative posts....
EvilHenryPaulson,
I see... Thanks
EHP - penultimate para would give me pause if I was doing doo dilly. Looks like big outs. Seriously there is no mileage in this market given the opacity of the triangular debt market; frankly impossible.
So, in an environment of robust commercial law, everyone should maintain general confidence, no?
BARGEPOLE.
CC
And jeebus EHP if you go for any of this pse explain why, because it's sure beyond me.
EHP=EHM (Economic Hit Man)
Don't kill me.
Really.
Empty Shelves.
Pavel, one of the first major shocks of my young life was visiting what was billed as the biggest and most impressive shopping center in all soviet union. The shelves weren't empty -- the umbrella store had about 3 umbrellas. The shoe store, maybe 20 pairs of shoes, etc.
...and there's the story of how we got suckered into buying stuff for two beautiful women at a berioska shop. No empty shelves there.
If anyone (ehp et. al.) can explain "triangular debt market" to me I'd be much obliged....
(perhaps it was a joke?)
"Don't know how it's working out so far, but I can definitely foresee a, sadly, booming market here [tobacco]."
A mild legal sedative. Walking through downtown DC today I saw the common forlorn smoker shivering in the entrance to an office building on K Street.
It seems to me that this whole society - or at least large parts of it - is medicated one way or another. The stress level is too high.
With a will of iron - so far - I limit myself to two drinks a day. Though tempted. Just watching all these nervous people is enough to drive someone to drink.
Uncle Billy,
Tobacco and Alcohol have a strong floor underneath them. In the worst case scenario, it gets distributed without tax (illegally) and that would get them through -- although demand holds up without it.
I mentioned tobacco because I know in Africa for example, companies focussed on the growing middle-class (aka Black Diamonds) where they sought to have aspirational appeal for some brands. I know from my school friends more than anything else, that smoking is big in China. You'd have to be a some kind of connoisseur to know about all the brands -- but they've gotta be silk cut for starters if its upper end. Anyway, my thinking is that you'll be able to pick up a broad change in incomes through smokers shifting buying cheaper or at least less of their more expensive brand. Because smoking is prevalent, it should capture a broad segment of the working population
Game over. Apocalypse.
"You know times are tough when the rich start cutting costs on their mistresses.
According to a new survey by Prince & Assoc., more than 80% of multimillionaires who had extra-marital lovers planned to cut back on their gifts and allowances. Still, only 12% of the multimillionaire cheaters said they plan to give up on their lovers altogether for financial reasons."
Rich Cut Back on Payments to Mistresses - The Wealth Report - WSJ
Yahoo went up 1.3B when Jerry Yang resigned. Hope our CEO resigns too.
Stupid question: Is the premium of american silver dollars over stop usually like 50%!? I was going to get some silver instead of gold, but at 50% over spot versus just 8% for gold, I'd rather go with the gold... any experience in these matters?
"With a will of iron - so far - I limit myself to two drinks a day"
I've been on a two day bender! Yesterday I had a beer, and today I had a beer. It's amazing how little it takes to get plastered when you just don't drink.
(mental checklist: invest in booze)
"...and there's the story of how we got suckered into buying stuff for two beautiful women at a berioska shop. No
empty shelves there."
'They're foreigners. Let them pay.' [Actual quote].
ades - sorry, let me have a smoke and I;ll come back to you.
CC
Peter Schiff SUCKS,
You work at MSFT, CSCO or Crox?
"It's amazing how little it takes to get plastered when you just don't drink."
I envy you.
ades,
Primarily I'm a full-time student at the moment.
Anak,
I know about smuggled cigarettes, but I figure the tobacco companies have to report those sales somewhere and it might as well be under a general heading of Asia. The big tobacco companies were caught in a big way about a decade ago in Canada and I don't remember any hide-the-sales accounting reported.
CC,
I skim too fast for your jibber jabber to dazzle and daze.
Pavel: I think I told the story before... they took us out to a restaurant on the outskirts of the city (Rasputin's house maybe?) and the bill came to something like $400.00 Story sound familiar?
CC, roger that! I just a tube (not sure what you smoke) Off to be "solo sushi guy"
"What many consider to be the scariest of scary yuppie urban dwellers..."
Sorry Pavel. I should shut up now.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
nades,
Primarily I'm a full-time student at the moment.
Where...region?
Tim, International Space Station.
It seems that over time agriculture got overtaken by industry, which got overtaken by commerce, which got overtaken by finance, which morphed into a casino.
Is it best to simply let it rip, or to re-structure things? If so, how?
Junior College somewhere in Nj was my first guess.
I just found this at Moscow.com. In Soviet times it would belong in a science fiction movie:
CrocusCity
200,000 items of products, much more than any other shop can offer: furniture, kitchen furniture, sanitary engineering, tiles, various interior articles, video and audio, consumer electronics, building materials, instruments, gardening tools, equipment for saunas, swimming pools and billiard rooms, flowers, books, toys, two auto shows, food products (the Perekrestok supermarket).
etc.
You see - people got something in return for the collapse of the empire.
Watson: time to plough up the garden and throw in some new seeds. Too many weeds, bugs, and mushrooms.
Uncle Billy - no problem.
Tim,
I'll limit it to Canada, but it's not because you said nj jr college
CC,
come on! will there be a E&Y the sequel?
Pavel-
Are you originally from Mother Russia?
On a personal note, I read Anna Karenina when I was 16 and have dreamt of spending a few years just traveling the country since then.
I work for GE.
EHP
HKer: I haven't puzzled out how they will "monetize", if our money is bank credits and credits are being destroyed wholesale. Our financial system is a big black hole. Monetary base is poured in; nothing comes out.
Liquidity trap?
NW
P.S. From my office I can see San Francisco Bay. In prior years, there would be several container ships a day moving Christmas goods to Oakland. This year, container ships have been few and far between.
My office manager needed a new hub cap for her Chevy. She went to the dealership to order one. They told her that they were closing the parts and service departments in December. They were also going to stop selling new cars and would only sell used cars in the future.
We usually send out Christmas gift baskets to vendors. We learned today that our usual supplier is folding shop. She referred us to someone in Sonoma County. They cannot fill our order. They have over $100k in back orders, but do not have the cash to order the inventory to build Christmas gift baskets. They hope to get a Small Business Administration loan in January.
Depressing. Three small northern California businesses are going Tango Uniform. I fear that this just the tip of the iceberg nationwide.
EHP
Thanks, I was just kidding.
Peter Sucks,
To be fair Don't you think Welch set him up pretty badly. I mean just think if Genworth didn't get spun off and GE didn't become more "industrially" re focused with water and wind operations.
Pavel, hong konger
It's not Dostoyevsky, but I recommend the movie Transsiberian Woody Harrelson, Emily Mortimer as a couple travelling across Russia by train (well Lithuania to be honest) Suspense. Well done
I've been on a two day bender! Yesterday I had a beer, and today I had a beer. It's amazing how little it takes to get plastered when you just don't drink.
Uncle Billy Logrolls Naomi K.
In business school, we used to sell blood and then use the proceeds to buy Everclear. It made for an great liquidity preference function and an outstanding IRR, if you could remember it.
NW-
Well, that's the problem, isn't it?
"Prices" inflate only if the velocity of money is increasing (no hoarding).
I was thinking the Dept of Agriculture might start "nudging" the ADMs of the world to start pushing food commodities higher to "force" China to start repatriating dollars.
There's A LOT of ways this could play out. But, it takes time for the money to filter down to the "spenders" and then you've gotta induce them to buy.
Even if it's possible, it will take a lot of time. So, it's probably a combination of "mechanisms" and the market really hasn't "priced" this time differential yet.
I'm getting tired (really, mentally tired) of trying to avoid all the problems in the markets and the intermediaries. Truthfully, I'm more concerned about the intermediaries/ fiduciaries right now.
It just gets old. I hate to be dour, but most of the Liabilities are understated and most of the Assets are overstated. NAVs are junk right now.
And it starts right at the FED.
Norka: heh hee.
The only really enjoyable times I ever had putting foreign substances into my body were in the military when, on the hottest of days, we would infuse ourselves with ice cold hartman fluid on a slow drip. Ahhhhhhh...