Architecture Billings Index Drops to All Time Low
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 11/19/2008 - 10:19am (125 comments)
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frissio
The nemo is evil.
The pig is good.
I post for Zardoz.
WARNING WARNING
8200 breach!!!!
o pig
first
It is so bad even George Costanza's architecture billings are down.
if you build it, it might sit...
Phoenix, October house sales are 47% FC/short sale/REO, median price down 30% YoY(34% off ATH). full story
The bloodbath continues and no signs of slowdown.
What'd I miss?
Goodbye SP. So says credit markets.
C...approaching 6 handle..AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
The starting figure in '95 probably reflects the ramp-up to expansion. If the chart went back to '91 or '92, it might show as low a level then as now.
Just a quibble -- just saying we're not necessarily in terrority that we haven't been to before in the past 20 years. Yet.
the grind goes on:
http://www.soundeffects.ch/soundeffectsaudiofiles/soundeffectspreviewtracks/IndGrindingVeryLoud1.mp3
Hey, can you guys slow down the money train. Even us black holes have our limits.
I always wanted to be an architect.
NYSE volume down:up is running 30:1
lol, so much for a triple bottom
re: big 3 hearing
What the hell is the current speaker asking about non-caucasian owned dealerships for? It boggles my mind, do local papers print those kinds of questions... but there is no campaign for years
Too bad this doesn't back more years. I think the early 1970s and early 1980s were far worse than the time peried covered by this index, and I wonder how they compare to today?
If this is what passes for the 1st leg down; then except for people meeting deadlines from now until April next year is gonna be stone soup cubed in all construction segments.
George Costanza writes:
I always wanted to be an architect.
Just like Art Vandalay.
With $tarbucks cutting back locations, there won't be enough room for all the unemployed architects to hang out.
Art Vandalay was into importing/exporting
I guess I. M. Pei is gonna become I. M. not payed....
Tyler -
(from last thread)
That is the number I am looking at.
CNBC is freaking out about the mere thought of the big3 cutting ad spending. I am sublimely playing the world's smallest violin in response
or I.M. Pied off.....
Vandalay is big in plastics or was it latex
The one part of the construction employment we dont know about is the Civil Engineers index.
If we start spending money on infrastructure (kind of a New Deal thing) it wont show up here. Theoretically there could be an increase in construction employment and worked hours and still have a decrease in the AIA Index.
Just a possibility. I dont see it happening right now but in the future it could.
girlbear writes:
Art Vandalay was into importing/exporting
Wasn't that his second career? importing matches.
Coming Soon to a street corner near you:
"Will design a spatial experience and, in consequence, a inter-relational context between occupant and structure, for food."
If you build it. They will not come.
"George Costanza writes:
I always wanted to be an architect."
no, no, no. what George said was "I always wanted to pretend I was an architect!"
btw, I can confirm the story (at least our firm can).
I think it was Elaine's fake boyfriend who was into importing/exporting. George just wanted to date Marisa Tomei.
so metabear;
What was Vandalay industies into?
"Will design a spatial experience and, in consequence, a inter-relational context between occupant and structure, for food."
Win!
metabear,
I also can confirm that architects and some engineers have been laying off big down here in San Diego. Lots of forced retirements or hours cut or just lay offs.
....
girlbear: laytex.
"Shel Varnson speaking"
latex
ades,
Assuming bridges receive a proportional amount of investment. structurually deficient bridges should register a decline whether new ones are built or existing ones refurbished
I think in years to come, part of the analysis of this period will focus on the transition between a weak, lame-duck-in-the-extreme president and a very inexperienced incoming president who hadn't been inaugurated yet.
This is just simply a power vacuum here. Not good at all.
wally writes:
Too bad this doesn't back more years. I think the early 1970s and early 1980s
They didn't use architects in that era. You ever seen the bldngs. built then?
thanks, and I don't think he was spongeworthy either.....
"lame-duck-in-the-extreme president and a very inexperienced incoming president "
and the 77 day gap between the two..
Yeah, I meant the 77-day gap.
very inexperienced incoming president
All incoming Presidents are very inexperienced. I've heard ex-Presidents, both R and D's say the only job that prepares you to be President is being President. Obviously Shrub is an anomoly to this rule
EHP,
Just wanted to say thanks for the insightful comments regarding CHF/GBP, UK/Swtiz yesterday. Much appreciated; really helped me. Thanks again.
Well, in any case, it's a helluva time to have a Great Unraveling.
"CNBC is freaking out about the mere thought of the big3 cutting ad spending. I am sublimely playing the world's smallest violin in response"
EvilHenryPaulson
It's a big deal for people in the TV business. Auto advertising is probably the most profitable for the entire food chain. Production costs for auto adverts have the highest cost per rolling second of any that I know of. And on the rare occasion when I watch TV, it seems like most of the ad time is sold to auto manufacturers and dealers.
Ok, this post is for anyone who wants to make this argument about dems being socialists and ruling out massive stimulus as part of the solution.
When do deficits matter? Seems like you think it's only when we add to them by investing in infrastructure and job creation / retention (which includes doing something about health care costs). It's ok when it's due to huge inbalance in trade where commodity prices continue to rise.
At what point do you recognize that capitalism as it has existed over the last many years and even more so today is full of government intervention on behalf of the rich and that free markets are a fallacy. It has it's inherent faults that can only be overcome by evolving regulation and protectionism (yes I said the dirty word).
This is not an argument for socialism. Just something for idealogues (including myself) to think about when deriding the other side of arguments. I happen to think massive stimulus is needed to keep us from a depression despite the fiscal insanity of it. I'm thinking mostly what is best for my 6 and 8 year olds when thinking about this and it scares the heck out of me.
Welcome MER! Don't be shy, you can come on in and join us. The nametags are on the table, and there's quiche in the back of the room. Have you met C?
Don't bet against the black boxes at the 8200 level.
EHP
Register a decline? Almost 25% of the bridges in the US should be replaced (by that data, good find btw).
I'm confused....
yhoo in freefall...that is a great internet index
v, no problem
nades, there's also FHWA
But I am less inclined to believe measures of pavement roughness or miles of road on roads supported by the federal government would be of useful inference
The bottom is holding, but getting weaker each time. Little conviction either way right now. A breach at the end of the day would be bad...or good, depending on one's position. I'd need to see sub 8150 on Dow and sub-820 on S&P with continued selling to closing in order to believe we're going significantly lower.
So, what is it an experienced president-elect should be doing right now?
Bilbo, thanks for the thoughtful post, interesting take.
yhoo in freefall...that is a great internet index
it's because Balmer stated that MSFT is no longer interested in YHOO.
Yahoo gave up all it's gains from Yang retiring and more.
OK, here comes the final test of the day. Pay close attention....
Ballmer took great pleasure in that, I am sure.
"So, what is it an experienced president-elect should be doing right now?"
Seeing if he can get unelected.
Bilbo,
So the solution to problems caused by a little government intervention is a lot of government intervention?
It appears to me that government intervention, by bailing out selected industries and companies, has only prolonged and exacerbated our current situation. As I don't think its possible to curb the corruption and pandering that passes for government, my confidence that the government will do anything other than make the problem worse is very low.
Residential RE, commercial RE, banks, brokerages, auto companies, commodities, consumers - all taking big hits.
When is it health care's turn?
Oh, that's right. Health care is insulated, because if you don't pay, you die. I think there's a word for that situation.
.
Health care is insulated, because if you don't pay, you die. I think there's a word for that situation.
.
Speed
Extortion, coercion? Am I close?
Re: advertising- don't forget that the elections were a huge boost as well, probably covering up cutbacks by automakers and others through the fall. Now when christmas ads go away, who is left?
FOMC 2011 til improvement. So the 2 quarters away from improvement model isn't working anymore.
this one is going to breach ... we have a compressed bat signal developing
sm_landlord, re: auto advertising
A few days back I covered superbowl advertising, and beyond the next one they are facing a lot of trouble (beer companies have been acquired/merged, autos, no new big websites, ...)
As for TV in general CNBC's own stats:
Big 4 networks = 6%, Fox = 9%, of total ad sales
They contribute a lot to local affiliates and national broadcasts
nades,
Well yeah, register a decline. Money spent on infrastructure -> bridges -> fewer deficient bridges. The high # of deficient bridges actually would help it be a more useful indicator
bilbo:
here's my take (I've espoused it many times on CR before)
"Free markets" are only a utopianistic ideal, much like "communism". it looks great on paper, but neither is ever achievable.
why? because as you try to go toward either (we'll stick with free markets) there will always be a small group of people who screw it up for everybody.
for example: as we tried to deregulate energy in CA it only took 1 millisecond before Enron was manipulating the partial deregulation. thus, there were brownouts, people got pissed, and that was the end of that.
likewise with financial markets. we've tried "free market deregulation". it's called the CDS market. pretty much deregulated. And now look at things. a bunch of sickos manipulated their financials and their companies in order to squeeze as much short term profit/bonuses as they possibly could, leaving the husks to rot in the sun.
this is not to say that regulation is a panacea. it is always one step behind. but IMO it is better than what we've seen with partial deregulation.
the biggest problems with regulation IMO are
-regulator capture
-lack of enforcement
-false security (because of the lack of enforcement, the players have a false sense of security about the risks involved with the system).
my 2 cents.
30-YEAR TREASURY BOND\t^TYX\t4.144\t4.056\t2:03PM ET\t3.96\tDown 0.1790\tDown 4.32%
35 more to go before hitting 0. At least least these guys don't have to play around with their index.
Don't bet against the holidays. More thumbs in dams, but will hold nonetheless.
"And on the rare occasion when I watch TV, it seems like most of the ad time is sold to auto manufacturers and dealers."
I can tell you don't watch a lot. The drug companies are trying to give the auto companies some competition for the ad time. As a father of three small kids, I especially appreciate all the Viagra and Cialis commercials that are on at all times of day.
"Daddy, what's erectile dysfunction?"
"lack of inflation a threat to price stability" ie deflation.
Quite a statement.
I've always wanted to be an architect. Until now.
We need more chairs.
Bilbo,
Received through my local public library's inter library loan, Murray Rothbard's Great Dpression, published in 1968.
Have you, or any others read it? I got 14 days to read it before the return to what must be a nice library in Henderson State University in a place called Arkadelphia. Must be close to Philadelphia.
The Fed is giving the NAR a run for their money in the race to be crowned "Most Optimistic".
.
Yearning To Learn | 11.19.08 - 2:10 pm |
You got'er pontiac. Exactly right.
When is it health care's turn?
Oh, that's right. Health care is insulated, because if you don't pay, you die. I think there's a word for that situation
healthcare has started falling quietly. I know doctors and medical groups across the country. many clinics/hospitals are starting to struggle... and the layoffs are starting.
I also resent the idea of "you don't pay, you die" because it simply isn't true. I can't count how many people come into our emergency room and are treated AND LIVE and never pay a penny. sure, the bill gets added to their metaphysical account, but it's never getting paid.
now I will agree with
"you don't pay, you don't get ancillary health services that you probably don't need anyway"
WARNING WARNING
8200 breach!!!!
Are you worried there'll be another rally?
Bill Gross on CNBC right now,
Mood: Grumpy about now hanky-panky superfund MBS purchases.
Outlook: Optimistic automaker paper is government insured
My forecast: Gross posts some negative annual performances?
Thus guy will go down in history as designer known for Shrines of Excess.
Art/Museums: Frank Gehry Architect at the Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum
haloscan's fallen and it can't get up
We need bigger thumbs.
We hold AGAIN!
There may be another test today - looks like it. This bounce seems like a little "trade the bottom" head fake.
OT. From the "tell us something we didn't know" department.
Credit crunch due to lack of borrowers: Lacker
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The credit crunch is more about lack of opportunities for good loans than concern about bank capital, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Jeffrey Lacker said Wednesday.
"My reading of current conditions is that bank lending is constrained more now by the supply of creditworthy borrowers than by the supply of bank capital," he commented.
Lacker's remarks put him at odds with the majority of the Fed's policy-makers, who have approved an unprecedented increase in lending to shore up the financial sector.
The Fed official clearly is uneasy about the central bank's massive lending campaign. "The dramatic recent expansion in Federal Reserve lending, and government support more broadly, has extended public-sector support beyond existing supervisory reach, and thus could destabilize the financial system, absent corrective action," he said.
The remedy is not to extend government oversight but to roll back the scope of the federal safety net, he added.
Lacker said that over the past year, hope of government assistance "may have induced some firms to take the risks of turning down capital infusions or merger offers in hopes of finding better terms in the future."
Lack of solid borrowers causing credit crunch: Lacker - MarketWatch
have slaughtered Hogs, but how processes one goat? er, yagi?
BTW, based on that previous post from Lacker, it's gonna get way uglier.
Our 'fake' economy from 1997-2007 is coming home to roost and in a big way.
REL - The corruption and pandering starts with the corporations, but they call it lobbying. Yes, government has been sleeping with them on both sides of the bed and it is a big part of the problem. Transparency and trust (confidence) are the solutions to this. I have zero doubt that we will improve in this area and some hope that it will be significant enough to produce some necessary change. The bailouts are a symptom not the cause. Yes, it's worth arguing what is the best medicine.
But, someone arguing in favor of a bailout or regulation likely has the same goal as you: a healthy economy and the best possible prognosis. They may not be as ignorant as you think. The only way to be sure is to talk about the specifics. I suggest that sticking to political labels will not help the cause.
Is Gross the hooker with high heels?
"You know I've always wanted to be a pretend-architect!"
And
"You know the expansion of the Guggenheim?"
"You did that"?
"Yeah, it really didn't take that long either."
Sweden's banks refuse govt backstops. Interesting how a so-called "socialist" country is more "capitalist" than the US.
Meanwhile, the SEK takes a beating at 8.12SEK/1USD
.
Hey, if Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers were the outlet for depression era escapism, who do you think ours will be?
.
Anon says: OK, here comes the final test of the day. Pay close attention....
Anon says: There may be another test today - looks like it.
Which is it?
Beverly Hills Chihuahua 2 & 3?
sanity clause: Lol! That was my favorite comment of the day...Chihuahua!
since someone brought healthcare up, I thought I'd share something that many of you might not know.
the credit bubble obviously causes misallocation of resources almost everywhere. this includes healthcare.
we have seen a massive misallocation in the US towards high-cost high-profit care. specifically towards subspecialists and super-subspecialists. this has been accelerating over time.
this has been encouraged by almost everybody... doctors, lawyers, health administrators, insurance carriers, you name it.
so what's happened is that a LOT of health organizations around the country have massively overbuilt... typically in the specialty range (since primary care is "unprofitable"), especially since 2001.
Look around your city. You may have seen a lot of new heart centers (cardiology, interventional cardiology, cardiac surgery), Lasik centers (ophthalmology), stroke centers (neurosurgery and neurology), open MRI centers, "specialty centers", hospital additions and so on.
typically, these centers are VERY expensive to build. and they spare no expense on finishes (research shows that patient satisfaction is DIRECTLY related to clinic interior design)
however, as a country we have overbuilt these. and a lot of clinics/organizations have used a lot of DEBT to build these... and they're all competing in the same space...
so the revenue will never come.
My organization and all the major ones of Mpls/SP are in this boat. All have built major specialty centers. and now those are unlikely to pay off.
so healthcare (at least clinics/hospitals) are bracing for dire times, and around here most are freezing hiring, encouraging retirement. Those that remain they are asking for extra hours. (extra weekends, evenings, overnights).
Hey, if Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers were the outlet for depression era escapism, who do you think ours will be?
The way it's looking, I'll say Smith and Wesson.
.
TM | 11.19.08 - 2:26 pm |
%*&^in' hell dude
.
New thread, someone hold me...
Yearning to Learn: Bakersfield, CA, where I live, has built an enormous number of these speciality centers. Definitely seems like a bubble to me. It's sad that primary care is "unprofitable". . .
Bilbo,
I agree with you about party labels - the only differnce I see is which special interest groups they are beholden to, and I also realize that everyone involved would like to see a healthy economy. However, I happen to believe that in order to get to a healthy sustainable economy, everyone will need to be disabused of the notion that, through government bailouts, we can rebuild the economy, as it existed in the last decade.
That economy is gone, and whatever emerges will look vastly different. Probably vastly different than anything that anyone has ever seen. As a result, I do not think that the government (R, D or otherwise) has the intelligence or creativity to regulate such a market. Unfortunately, the people best suited to forecast what the market will look like, are probably the very people that made a ton of money off of the previous, unsustainable economy. It's a bit of a catch-22.
"research shows that patient satisfaction is DIRECTLY related to clinic interior design"
Funny - sad. He's not much of a doctor, but his office is incredible!
.
YTL: short HCP? It's worked so far.
we have seen a massive misallocation in the US towards high-cost high-profit care. specifically towards subspecialists and super-subspecialists. this has been accelerating over time.
Last year, several of my friends that were graduating from medical school told me that the most desired residency programs were ophthalmology and dermatology: easy hours, highly discretionary spending (i.e. no insurance) that resulted in ridiculous overpriced non-elective procedures (e.g. Botox, LASIK).
Wonder how those fields are holding up these days? Of course, the question is rhetorical...
That being said, now is probably the worst possible time for government to prop up the health care industry via universal care. Just like with every other industry, the excesses need to be purged so that price and utility become somewhat aligned.
I travel a lot, and I can think of very very few places that has not overbuilt these specialty centers.
people are looking to healthcare to be a shining sector, but i'm not so sure. a significant percentage of American healthcare is discretionary.
sure, we'll always need ER's and ICU's and trauma surgeons and all that.
but we may see less people getting Lasik, Invisalign, Hair restoration, plastic surgery. and unfortunately also less people getting physicals and immunizations and blood pressure meds and allergy meds etc.
it'll be like when I was a kid. you went to the doctor ONLY if it looked like you might die. not like now where I (seriously) have people bring in their kids who have a temp of 99.5 degrees (which is normal) or a runny nose for a day.
needless to say, I've been in cash preservation mode for about 2 years now.
Comrade Canadian -
Society is a lot angrier than it was in the 20's. Wish it weren't so, but I suspect a financial collapse of a magnitude greater than the Depression would yield to violence. Sorry if that sounds too dire. I'd rather be an optimist and say that people will reach out to their neighbors but people today aren't very fond of "sharing".
sanity clause:
no comment on HCP.
it's a REIT and I'm not familiar with their exact holdings.
however, I would doubt their future prospects look good.
but I don't follow them at all so have no idea if the future badness is "priced in" or not.
as for ophtho and derm:
both still doing pretty good for now.
ophtho had a one time bump in salaries (they were getting $1M+ if they did Lasik back in 2000) due to Lasik. there was 70 years of backlog of people who wanted (and now got) Lasik). however, now most people who want it have it, so demand for Lasik is down substantially.
that said, most good opthalmologists didn't do Lasik, because it is easy and VERY boring.
the good ones are more surgical and they're fine.
derm will be an interesting potato to watch. highly discretionary. but they limit the numbers of entrants (precisely because derm is so boom/bust with the economy) so we'll see...
That being said, now is probably the worst possible time for government to prop up the health care industry via universal care. Just like with every other industry, the excesses need to be purged so that price and utility become somewhat aligned.
The excess that should be purged are mostly in the private insurance system and the army of bureaucrats that doctors hire to extract payments. Moving to a single payer system would get rid of most of those non-providers.
REL - Any support I have for bailouts are with the specific goal that they not lead us back to where we've been (especially Depression era). I agree that they will not bring us a healthy economy on their own. My hope is that investment in infrastructure, energy, and healthcare can lead us to new pastures. I'm pretty sure that sitting where we are waiting for a bottom is not the answer.
YTL - Thanks for the additional thoughts. Got me thinking deeper about productivity and bottom lines.
Where the middle class is weakened there is less room for corporations to compete on service and quality. It is a race to see who can do it the cheapest. In a global market this means outsourcing and growth in developing countries. It can lead to technological innovation which has short term gains, but long term it leads to job destruction and wage stagnation.
My job is to automate manual tasks and improve efficiency. When the goal is process improvement it's exciting, but lately it's mostly about getting rid of FTE...the results are not the same.
I agree with PeakVT.
a single payer system would be substantially cheaper overall than the system we have, due to middlemen.
however, be careful what you wish for. a single payer system would put TONS of highly paid medical administrators out of a job. tons.
and single payer system would have to ration care in some mechanism... so you'd likely see it focus on primary care (which is cheaper and more cost effective)
it won't be perfect though. americans won't like the idea that they can't just go to orthopedics every time the sprain their wrist. and of course there will be the hard questions like treatment of people with terminal disease. (in america we spend tons of money on end-of-life care... this would need to stop)
that said, these decisions are being made anyway. right now it's made by insurance carriers who focus on profit. that's never good either.
End of life care?
I say drugs, really heavy dosage. If family members complain, drug them!
Personal experience from relatives in their last months of life-
Highest medical costs incurred when the doctors knew the patient was dying! If you are going to die, make it as comfortable as possible. Why run a dying patient through multiple surgeries that are painful!
US health care cycle:
Born - live - save - get old - give life savings to health insurance - die in poverty.
Does this mean companies/people are reusing a lot of old architecture plans?
Hey, if Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers were the outlet for depression era escapism, who do you think ours will be?
Sarah Palin Does DC TV Series
She's going to do the old farts first: Ted Stevens is head of list, then Lieberman, Kyl (his surprise coming out as a het), Robert Bryd, et. al. Co-sponsored by Viagra and Cialis. New FCC rules: f*cking permitted on tv after 9PM.
Palin is pretty when she's talking about snow mobiles.
She looks like a nasty hag when she talks about world affairs, Darwin.
Held. We're going positive.
There is nothing wrong with surgery under a single payment plan/universal health, if will give the patient increased life expectancy beyond some extended time period. But to be dying from multiple causes, any of which will kill you, just a matter of time, to run up the doctor's bill and aggravate the patient, does not seem to comply with the doctor's oath.
My arch daughter still has her job!!
but they've had layoffs; sure hope she keeps it.
however, be careful what you wish for. a single payer system would put TONS of highly paid medical administrators out of a job. tons.
True. But the switchover wouldn't happen overnight. And there will be transitional jobs they could move to as we migrate medical records into some kind of nationwide electronic records system. Or they could retrain as actual providers.
If we could get it through our thick skulls that downsizing can be managed, we won't have to worry much about those people.
"Johnny Lee writes:
have slaughtered Hogs, but how processes one goat?"
Goats are easy peasy compared to hogs. .22LR between the eyes, hoist by rear legs, skin, eviscerate, hang in cold room for two weeks, butcher and eat. Yum, very underrated meat, but it has to be less than one year old or it's a bit "goaty" if you know what I mean.
The DOW chart is dripping out the bottom of my browser.
want to see a better chart
Dow Market Plunge Watch