""BASF already drew attention to the difficult economic situation at the end of October," Chief Executive Juergen Hambrecht said in a statement. "Since then, customer demand in key markets has declined significantly. In particular, customers in the automotive industry have canceled orders at short notice.""
Don't you think right about now Trader Hank is sitting in his 'heads on the wall' room and saying 'you congress guys don't have me to kick around anymore'?
No one can save you now!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Or am I just mad 'cause they took my bright red buttonphone and left all these empty suitcases lying around?
"Even though we're down 45%+, I suspect we'll set a new low. The amount of debt it took to build up the stock market is the most we've seen so far."
PeakVT
Is it? Do you know what the amount of effective debt is in relative terms?
Also, which debt do you count? Margin Debt? National Debt? Something in between?
" LowerMiddleClass writes:
What amazes me is the similarity in shapes. Three humps down and some noise at the bottom.
LowerMiddleClass | 11.19.08 - 2:31 pm | # "
I think that's human nature at work -- deny three times, then capitulate. Or, death throes, whatever works for you.
Watercooler talk at my office among line employees regarding Big 3 auto bailout is uniformly against a bailout...people cite failure of Detroit to build fuel efficient/reliable cars except under duress. I have a hunch outside of states where these automakers have large presences, the general sentiment is similar.
GM, Ford and Citi are all closing in on bankruptcy pricing.
Changing the Federal financing to yen-denominated bonds would, like everything else, be soothing in the short-term but just more trading of risk for immediate cash flow.
Real estate should start a new downturn soon and that's it.
Female neighbor (56) who rents 1/2 duplex drove over to show off new Nissan Infiniti M45 loaded. Bought w/inheritance funds. Nice. Better than duplex where she has lived since 1980 and could have paid for 3 Dallas condos...
(I know, I know...when you hear "this time it's different, then...")
We've never had this kind of govt. and monetary intervention both in frequency and record quantity. EWe've never had this level of debt. Who knows where it goes? At lot of past-market conditioned dippers have had their bottoms ripped)
The housing and stock market crashes are symptoms. The debt based perma-growth model is permanently impaired. Real growth cannot keep pace with the compounding required to pay the ever increasing interest charges.
Forcing money/debt into the system only makes the majority poorer.
We need to start a serious discussion about a sustainable economic model.
guardian.co.uk - 1 hour ago
"Somali bandits terrorising the busy shipping routes around the Horn of Africa suffered a rare setback when an Indian warship destroyed a pirate "mothership" after coming under fire in the Gulf of Aden."
Finally, somebody shows some backbone...of course, firing on an actual warship as opposed to a target merchant vessel shows remarkable stupidity or arrogance by the pirates. Maybe they were minions of Jabba the Hutt?
Then watch the fire truck and ambulance arrive. ooh, blood!
Then watch the highway crews come hose off the lanes and remove the wreckage. Sig alert for 2 hours, wait, wait, wait.
All clear on the road! Speed again!
The alternative to high speed roads, given our present mindset of technological solutions, is individual jet packs... It is NOT returning to lower velocity vehicles.
No PPT. There is trong buy support at 8200 which has yet to be challenged with strong sell volume. This market behavior is completely textbook technical. We need to break 8200 hard on the dow and 830 on the S&P - and I mean hard. Otherwise, we have a bottom for now.
I would like to add that the DOW is a joke and there really is a PPT.
Come on!
How many consecutive 200-300 down days and then a sudden surge at the end to close with a 20-40 point loss/gain can we have without some sort of manipulation by some entity?
This is getting laughable now.
Do we really have free markets?
Oh well, I guess stagflation is in on the DOW. We'll just sit here at 8300-8400 for the next 5 years.
I can't wait to see how that goes over with the perpetual growth crowd.
Even while hinting that another rate reduction could be forthcoming, Fed officials worried that the effectiveness of previous rate cuts "may have been diminished by the financial dislocations, suggesting that further policy action might have limited efficacy in promoting a recovery in economic growth," the documents said.
To help ease financial turmoil and spur banks to lend money more freely again to customers, the Fed has taken a series of other unprecedented steps, including offering short-term cash loans and buying up mounds of short-term debt that companies rely on to pay day-to-day expenses like payrolls and supplies.
Under its new economic forecast, the Fed now believes gross domestic product could be flat or grow by just 0.3 percent this year. GDP could actually shrink or expand by 1.1 percent next year. Both sets of projections are lower than the Fed's forecasts delivered to Congress in July.
the PPT clearly exists (Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets)
however, that does not mean that every bounce is due to the PPT.
I'm honestly flabbergasted at why any of you are surprised about the late day bounces.
we ALL know that the markets tend to surge after 3pm ET. if you believe in the PPT, then you too know the market will surge at 3pm ET.
thus, why not just buy at 230pm? you get in just before the surge and then you make quick easy cash.
and millions of other people have the same idea. combine them with quant programs- they all amplify the surge.
thus: if you truly believe in the PPT you are a fool not to go long at 230pm on down days, because you know the PPT will try to intervene.
if you're not willing to do this, then you're really just a whiner who makes up fairies to explain why the market goes against you.
so quit whining about the PPT and use your knowledge to your advantage. and quit whining about them. sheesh.
How many consecutive 200-300 down days and then a sudden surge at the end to close with a 20-40 point loss/gain can we have without some sort of manipulation by some entity?
This is getting laughable now.
So how come you haven't gotten rich trading it? It should be trivial to buy at 3 on big down days and sell at 4.
If you try that and lose a lot of money, will you admit that there really isn't any pattern?
"We need to start a serious discussion about a sustainable economic model"
I wasn't on his bandwagon, so I'm not a Ron Paul groupee, but he tried to make just this point in his comments and questions to HP and BB yesterday. Paraphrase would be "Have you guys given any thought to Economoy 2.0, cause we can't fix all the bugs in 1.0"
Wow. Just wow. So people have so much money that they just want it to sit there? Why not leave it in a savings account or safe if you want no return--or pay for the right--on your money?
In order to have a conversation about a new sustainable economic model, I think you need an admission from a majority of the players that the old economic model is irreparably flawed. That's not going to happen until (unless) all of the bailout efforts fail.
My question is: Is capitalism, as practiced in the US, like democracy in that it is the worst economic model, except for all of the others?
I think many of the calls for a more socialistic form of economy/government ignore the cultural preferences of a majority of the American public (more stuff, less free time). Trying to socially engineer an economic model by cramming it down people's throats is unlikely to work. In other words, the cry for change has got to come from the masses.
By the way, I view the current "hope and change" platform to have about as much credence as the "market bottom" posts we see everyday.
re:anon so what accounts for the weak sell side at 8200--fear of booking "real" losses, purely chartist reasons? just wondering if anyone has any pithy comments, not trying to figure out any trading strategy
When a Toxic Security Distressed Debt ETF is opened so all the wise guys that know credit can offload their meaty trades to retail and go back in and buy the S&P 500 at S&P 500....
RING RING
Hey why is that phone working if it isn't plugged in?
Nice to see so much gloom out here. I'm feeling more bullish as a result! Small caps getting whacked worst; Dow and SP500 not setting new lows yet... Wheat being separated from chaff by Mr. Market?
BTW, Another way of reading that graph is that there's a 2-in-3 chance that this is about as bad as this crash will get.
In other words, if you take the set of all major market drawdowns (market down at least 40%, say) and plot the distribution, only a minority get dreadfully worse than that. How likely is it that this new event will go to -80% or -90%?
(And remember, while things look grim now, they looked grim every other time too.)
This time it's NOT different.
Also, I note that both the 1973-4 and 2002 bottoms show the same "double dip" in their final throes that we are seeing now.
Asking HP a question and expecting an honest answer at this point is akin to asking a three year old with chocolate on his face and hands who ate the brownies?
You already know the answer and know he's going to lie.
For cripes sake, he couldn't define what a "financial institution" is.
So how come you haven't gotten rich trading it? It should be trivial to buy at 3 on big down days and sell at 4.
If you try that and lose a lot of money, will you admit that there really isn't any pattern?
well done Nemo. you elucidated in 3 sentences what it took me 3 paragraphs to write!
the PPT crowd comes out every day looking for the bounce to blame on the PPT. when the bounce happens, they have a Maria Bartiromo orgasm of despair.
when it doesn't happen they gleefully talk about the PPT running out of bullets.
"the PPT crowd comes out every day looking for the bounce to blame on the PPT. when the bounce happens, they have a Maria Bartiromo orgasm of despair.
when it doesn't happen they gleefully talk about the PPT running out of bullets.
Look, I don't care if the PPT comes or not. Like I said, I am not in the market.
However, there is something holding this together. There is no sound reason why this market shouldn't be under 8K by nowm esp. on all the news we have had lately.
Whether it is the PPT or shorts or longs, I don't care.
Again, I have no dog in this race.
What I want to understand is what is holding this thing together?
We've poured 2Trillion into this rathole economy and nothing has shown signs of improvement and yet we can't bust 8K!
anon writes:
By the way, we could finish in the green today.
anon | 11.19.08 - 2:58 pm |
anon writes:
Gentlemen, looks like we're in for another run on the "bottom". I actually have a feeling me may blow through it this time.
anon | 11.19.08 - 3:02 pm |
However, the fact that the Dow continues hang around major support indicates we could see a major test of 8,000 ahead - one that could spark a serious downside break. SignalWatch LIVE!
What I want to understand is what is holding this thing together?
We've poured 2Trillion into this rathole economy and nothing has shown signs of improvement and yet we can't bust 8K!
What is the deal?"
We are at a major trend level right now. Couple that with very weak shorts and a lack of volume due to rules that change every two weeks and you have the makings of very easy reversals.
Look people, lots of people, have a vested interest in having the market go up. So anything that gives them a glimmer of hope is a reason for the market to bottom. Until hope is destroyed the market will not tank. People believe what they want to believe until they don't.
"L.A. Region's Garages and Backyards Suffering from Major Identity Crisis, UCLA Research Shows"
"Forget hot tubs beckoning sybaritic adults, garages brimming with impressive cars and families frolicking on verdant lawns. From their clutter-strewn garages to their mostly lovely but abandoned yards, busy Southern California parents who own their homes rarely use residential outdoor spaces for the purposes for which they were designed, said a UCLA anthropologist who participated an in-depth study of how the average dual-income family really lives in Los Angeles.
"Middle class families in Southern California don't live the way you
might expect," said Jeanne Arnold, an anthropologist with UCLA's Center for the Everyday Lives of Families and a UCLA professor of anthropology. "Most parents in dual-income families never spend leisure time in their yards, their children play outside much less than expected and most cars can't fit in garages because they're too full of clutter from the house." Five years ago, Arnold and a team of researchers set out to follow 32 families, all with young children, and with each parent holding a full-time job. For four full days, Arnold's team tracked these families at home, from the moment they rose to the moment they went to bed, scrupulously documenting the ways they used their homes, yards and time. In addition to videotaping family members at home during the four days, including weekends, the research team recorded the activities and whereabouts of each family member in the home at 10-minute intervals. They produced photos and floor plans of the houses and yards, and family members made self-narrated tours of their homes. The team accumulated so much information that just processing the records took more than a month per family. The first "material culture" analysis of these records will appear in the March 2007 issue of the Journal of Family and Economic Issues. Despite the fact that contemporary Americans now control the largest amount of private space per person in the history of urban civilization, the team documented what Arnold calls "a storage crisis" among the first 24 of 32 families studied. "From construction materials to excess furniture and toys, storage of material goods has become an overwhelming burden for most middle-class families," said Arnold."
Consumer prices plunged by the largest amount in the past 61 years in October as gasoline pump prices dropped by a record amount.
The Labor Department said Wednesday that consumer prices fell by 1 percent last month, the biggest one-month decline on records that go back to February 1947. The drop was twice as large as the 0.5 percent decline analysts expected.
OCDan:
my post was not directed specifically at you. my apologies if it seemed that way.
my problem is that this whole schbang is nothing more than a casino.
agreed. but that is not due (solely) to the PPT. it is due to the overall setup of our financial markets that rewards speculation and punishes saving and investment.
Just as the CDS market promised to add stability but then destabilized our economy, so too the Quant funds and traders are destabilizing our markets... compounded by governmental interference.
I too exited the market some time ago for the same reasons. (I posted on CR when I got all out... I think it was about 4-6 weeks ago)
there seems to be a certain level of complexity beyond which it becomes impossible for the human mind to comprehend. our financial markets are such.
"Look people, lots of people, have a vested interest in having the market go up. So anything that gives them a glimmer of hope is a reason for the market to bottom"
The vast majority of the equity market has a long only mentality or mandidate
the crash is kind of an ongoing historical event. ppt while probably having some real aspects, is just sort of a joke to "fake" explain every jitter on the chart. Similarly "bat signals" etc is a satire of the chartists. we see how badly most people do, so I think that it is not a question of "backing the truck up to the market".
Did you guys catch the House hearings today with the auto makers.
There was one moment when a Congressman asked the CEO's "How come you guys flew to D.C in your private jets with your hat in hand? Can't you guys atleast Private-Jet-Pool for show sake?"
The 1987 "crash" was nothing...just computer trading fluff.....the 73-74 crash was epic but they crashed off much cheaper levels for equities, especially since the days of maximum debt fueled GDP and earnings pumping chicanery were ahead of us at that point not behind us as they are now.
And the dot com crash was off absolutely insane levels but was only thwarted by the housing bubble rocket engine which we also don't have this time around.
This time we are crashing off of expensive levels (implying a lot of room to fall) and we have nothing ahead of us that I can see that would possibly pull us out of the swan dive we are in.
Japan....or the GD1 will give a better perspective for where we are at IMO.
@PeakVT: thanks for the links; most helpful. Looks like a reduction in debt-service burdens of a few % of income would be sufficient to bring economy back on-line.
@OCDan, Broward: I still offer my wiki and forum for your sustainable-economy project; see my homepage. (I realize Broward could probably put his own together any time he wanted to...)
Yearning to Learn wrote " there seems to be a certain level of complexity beyond which it becomes impossible for the human mind to comprehend. our financial markets are such. " ----- This is the Black Swan theory, yes?
FFDIC writes:
What would Abbey Joseph Cohen do?
FFDIC | 11.19.08 - 2:39 pm | #
She's revising her S&P price target and estimates upwards, as all the economic news and the forthcoming depression are obviously bullish. Goldman Sachs analyst forecast -7% GDP in the forth quarter, which obviously means: New S&P target = 1550.
Yep, the US economy is like a supertanker...hard to slow down (unless it gets blown out of the water).
However, belief and the reality that xyz company is actually really worth anything are 2 different stories.
Now, if we want to debate that people invest in hope and/or getting casino-rich overnight, I'll buy that.
However, buying shares of GM to get rich quick doesn't seem like a smart move to move, unless you think they are going to survive/get gov't money, etc. and be the only 1 left in 20 years.
My mom finally broke down and got the courage to tell everyone in the family that she didn't want any "crap" for Christmas. No tchotchkes, votive candles, plastic doodads, panini makers, etc etc.
I myself have had a policy of refraining from buying bulky items (no matter how inexpensive) for years. The stuff is just so damn hard to store and get rid of.
While I don't believe that there is a federal PPT, I do find it interesting that the SEC Rule 10b-18 safe-harbor provisions for share repurchases mandate that the purchases not occur within the last 30 minutes of trading.
MS writes: So arrest me ....it didn't happen this month.
Don't lose faith yet... you've still got 2+ days. I've got limit orders in to buy calls down low in case we swoop down there.
We also have never seen a large bailout portion stated as being unused too.
As I've said before.... saying "it's op-ex" when it goes up and "it's externalities" when it goes down or sideways, doesn't lend a lot of credence to your theory.
There was one moment when a Congressman asked the CEO's "How come you guys flew to D.C in your private jets with your hat in hand? Can't you guys at least Private-Jet-Pool for show sake?"
Thanks for posting that. I was really hoping someone would take them to task on the jets. That was a skillful skewering.
Well hope applies to individual stocks as well. There are lots of people who think GM will be bailed out and the company will be fine. There are lots of people who don't think they can lose more money and that they are buying for long term investment.
Also there are a lot of computers that calculate based on assumptions that buy stock regardless of what humans think.
All kinds of reasons for stocks to go up when in your eye it should not.
Why is it called 'subprime mortgage crisis'? Although the subprime market made the initial appearance, I thought I saw a post here showing that people using their house as ATM played a larger role in starting this crisis. Have my memory failed me?
Calling a bottom right now is like being on a runaway train that is racing towards a collapsed bridge, you see the hero of the story riding his horse furiously towards the train, preparing to make that heroic leap on the engine, and you just know everything is going to be ok, because after all these stories always end with the hero winning.
But this isn't a movie, or a fictional story. The changes happening right now aren't going to work themselves out in the next half hour. It will be well into next year before we see how bad this is, and a year or so after that before we can look back and really see if the hero was able to stop the train.
So calling bottom now makes you sort of out of touch with reality, or a CNBC host.
@squeezed and @skent - I'm just trying to inject a contrarian perspective. I know perfectly well it could get much worse - over the next couple of years - but the historical odds are clearly against that. And it would be unprecedented if the market got a lot worse from here without getting an intermediate bounce somewhere.
Why is it called 'subprime mortgage crisis'? Although the subprime market made the initial appearance, I thought I saw a post here showing that people using their house as ATM played a larger role in starting this crisis. Have my memory failed me?
Ya its all housing causing this problem....bot the 55 trillion dollars in derivatives...
"As I've said before.... saying "it's op-ex" when it goes up and "it's externalities" when it goes down or sideways, doesn't lend a lot of credence to your theory.
Not at all what I've said....you are correct that's what you said...key point that.
but I'll take the averages over the last 12 months (and yes that does include the week before-as the first response clearly stated) over a half hearted attempt to discredit "my theory" by not looking at all the data and more importantly the results.
"ignore the cultural preferences of a majority of the American public (more stuff, less free time).... the cry for change has got to come from the masses."
methinks this cry is already being made w/o the criers even realizing it...like a self-destructive mechanism.
and yes, top-down fixes are not going to do are a darn thing but lead to calls for violent revolution.
the top is in a catch-22 visegrip.
why not instead concentrate on local solutions? like how to increase the topsoil level on the land across the way (compost) or how to power a gasoline generator on burning garbage (gassification)?
Point taken but there are no odds that are accurate based on history. I really don't think there is a precedent because the world is different in complex ways. By definition it is always different this time. History never repeats and never will. People say that so they can quickly understand and categorize complex events but it is a logical fallacy.
skent, this is what make it troubling to invest. The government should stay out of the autos. Second, we nned more transparency. I know it is currently cliche, but how can I invest when the CEO can't even answer questions straight up? Man, I would like to see GM's books. I know it will never happen, but this is what happens when things run amok.
You want my investment money, you need to show me some things.
Sometimes blind faith is not a good way to invest.
Just looking over the big financials there appear to be only two scenarios going foward- either they go bust and the equity is completely wiped out, or they thrust upward and shake out the shorts in one huge squeeze. I have never seen these stocks (GS, BAC, C, MS etc) in such an oversold condition- the measures are historic at this point.
the cry for change has got to come from the masses
The masses are probably going to just step back and melt into survival mode. Which is what happened to Rome and to the Mayan civilization. There wasn't any revolution that overthrew Rome. The peasantry just stopped cooperating, stopped trying to help.
OCDan:
I agree with others.
the problem that you are having is that you are looking at the problem with your level of knowledge. now strip 95% of that away.
People are not as plugged in as you might think to the issues at hand. even those that have some understanding of the problem still tend to want to go long.
even my better half decided to start dollar cost averaging when the S&P hit 35% down since "how much further can it go"
People buy the indexes through mutual funds... thus the mutual fund must buy the individual companies in teh index, no matter how bad those companies may be.
remember, half of all people have an IQ below 100.
of those that are above 100, most aren't interested in finance.
I still can't believe that all 3 of them actually showed up after traveling on separate private jets. And then begged for government money. Don't they even PR type handlers at the executive level that would recommend to them to fly coach?
Oh wait, you mean, they just surround themselves with advisors that just tell them what they want to hear?
It's our turn to be Chile, Brazil and Argentina. Where's our Pinochet? I always wanted to be dropped from a helicopter into the ocean after having my stomach cut open.
U.S. regulators may require banks and insurers to disclose data about all credit-default swap trades to a central registry to boost transparency in the $47 trillion market, a person with knowledge of the talks said.
Dealers and investors in the credit-default swaps market began recording most trades two years ago in a registry run by DTCC, the New York-based company that settled more than $1.86 quadrillion of transactions in stocks and bonds last year. The so-called Trade Information Warehouse gave the market its first central system for settling contracts after defaults and processing payments.
DTCC, which is owned by some of the largest dealers and investors, also started making some of the data public this month after pressure from regulators. The warehouse only captures trades processed electronically. DTCC said last week it recorded a total of about $32.7 trillion contracts.
ISDA conducts a broader survey of its members and estimated there are more than $47 trillion in contracts outstanding.
Why start now, or do this at all, it's like starting the SEC as an agency 20 years too late! What is the point, these fuckers destroyed the world!
Yearning, I see your point now. I guess we could parallel that with the housing bust. People buying now or priced out forever, or catching the falling knife.
Even if we have the knowledge the masses still make their dopey buys and sells.
"I still can't believe that all 3 of them actually showed up after traveling on separate private jets. And then begged for government money. Don't they even PR type handlers at the executive level that would recommend to them to fly coach?
Oh wait, you mean, they just surround themselves with advisors that just tell them what they want to hear?"
Where the hell are they going to find the space to spread out all those paper ven diagrams, org charts, documents on "Synergizing going forward" on a plain vanilla 747?
skent writes:
Also there are a lot of computers that calculate based on assumptions that buy stock regardless of what humans think.
skent | 11.19.08 - 3:18 pm
I think mp called it "playing beta" in the last thread. I can understand using such technical analysis to make things work, but as other people have written here, it really isn't a market as much as a gambling parlor now.
And I believe the "PPT" to this group is like the Flying Spaghetti Monster is to Atheists. Just a simple word to describe a whole lot of questions...
You just knew the SEC was a worthless institution from the get go when Joseph Kennedy, the mobbed up bootlegger, was put in charge of it. Foxes guarding the hen house. Has it ever been any different?
Historical stock market recession/depression data charts mean nothing today. This is the epic historical drop left for the next several generations to ponder. Party at Beanie's 2-nite!
@skent "I really don't think there is a precedent because the world is different in complex ways. By definition it is always different this time."
There's a rubbing spot, then. I think human nature hasn't changed, and neither have the fundamentals of human interactions (which give rise to economics), so that the world today isn't nearly as different as we think it is.
Get over yourself.....it's not a big deal unless you want to make it one.
I'm honestly trying to understand what fundamental thing could be occuring in a market to cause a rise during op-ex.
I've never heard an explanation I understand.... just "well, you don't want to transfer money to the the deep-in-the-money put owners".
Those people already cashed out, if they really want their money, and don't want to let it ride.
And all the big market-makers are hedged, so for a short deep in the money put near expiry, they're 100% short the stock. Jamming the market doesn't help them.
Bernanke doing all he can to destroy confidence, so I wonder if that is grounds for treason -- probably so, if he works for China:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank won't disclose details of the $2 trillion in emergency loans of taxpayer funds because doing so would stigmatize banks needing the money.
Some have asked us to reveal the names of the banks that are borrowing, how much they are borrowing, what collateral they are posting,'' Bernanke said today to the House Financial Services Committee.We think that's counterproductive.'
bh: It was never alive. Like Adam Smith's "invisible hand", it relied upon pervasive background conditions which it never acknowledged.
like blaming this on the failure of 'keynesian' thinking...there was never an adaptation of true keynesian thinking. if there was, there would be no global trade imbalances.
idealism/ideology is never practiced in its purest form...the meme is just bastardized to suit those in power and subdue the masses.
Squeezed, I was referring to all the people with 401K and mutual funds. The ones who are plugged in, but not plugged in, so to speak. I realize that they go through investment banks and the like, but that was what I meant.
I def. agree with you as I keep wondering who buys, since I know of no one who tells me they have bought 20 shares or whatever of GM or Ford or Coke for a long term investment.
Does he fail to see that the banks are failing and that his attitude increases distrust and by offering less disclosure, he groups them all together in collusion, where they are all guilty and will fail as one -- Bernanke needs removed from office tonight!
It's not about the current month...never has been. I should have clarified that to begon with...my bad for not. I've never let anything get close to expiration..unless it was so DITM always execute way before you loose time value.
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) Yields on speculative-grade corporate bonds surpassed 20 percent for the first time in at least two decades as a declining economy increased the risk of default.
Prices are in a virtual freefall, Fridson said. Either the market is right and expecting a default rate considerably higher than it was in the Great Depression, or we
have such profound dislocations and selling pressures going on that it really is creating extraordinary fundamental value.
The risk premiums are just at a staggering level; the number is not something any of us expected to see, he said, referring to the 20 percent yields.
How are dim, dere apples?
Junk bonds are saying "Worse than GD" or "Best Buy of the Last 80 Years". Who wants skin in on this game?
AngrySaver "The housing and stock market crashes are symptoms."
Angry man, you da man! Not too many brothers understand credit, interest, compounding, and "ball and chain" concept. Always appreciate your wise insight. Clearly, you also ascribe to the Austrian model too. Unfortunately, nobody but Ron Paul and a few of us do too.
Human nature is one thing but is not a variable that is predictable nor understood. To be honest I am not even sure people know what human nature is. I think it is a word to describe something we do not understand. However, how we react to situations does not predict what those situations will be. In addition if human actions were predictable....well I think we can agree they are not.
@squeezed - there are plenty of precedents, including Sweden, Japan, GD1, and others. The market never goes straight down 90%.
But I don't need to convince you, I just need to buy more of the shares you're shorting. Every time the market falls below its previous low, I buy a little more. (Price-based dollar-cost averaging.) My only regret is that my capital allocated to this strategy is strictly limited so that I can sleep at night despite the short-term losses.
Why would it never go down 90%? Are you saying that is not a possibility? Try to explain why the stock market system cannot crash totally and I will show you many holes.
Another factor that's common to most bubbles and crashes is that 50% of the total move happens in the last 10% of the time-frame, which leans towards this move being close to over. At this point, the recession seems to be shaping up to be something between 1980-82 and 1991 in severity, which would also lean towards closing in on a bottom for this move. I've spent years researching these sorts of moves, and it's difficult to be bearish here unless you believe a major depression or return to double digit inflation is coming. Recommended portfolio: overweight equities, but also overweight gold, shotguns and canned goods just in case...
Comrade Wisdom Seeker writes:
@squeezed - there are plenty of precedents, including Sweden, Japan, GD1, and others. The market never goes straight down 90%.
But I don't need to convince you, I just need to buy more of the shares you're shorting. Every time the market falls below its previous low, I buy a little more. (Price-based dollar-cost averaging.) My only regret is that my capital allocated to this strategy is strictly limited so that I can sleep at night despite the short-term losses.
The best part of this strategy is your limited capital.
SEK down has something to do with this? "Sweden's government is to meet with representatives of the country's major banks on Thursday in a bid to understand the banks' refusal to join a state-sponsored lending guarantee scheme."
You just knew the SEC was a worthless institution from the get go when Joseph Kennedy, the mobbed up bootlegger, was put in charge of it. Foxes guarding the hen house. Has it ever been any different?
You sure about that?
Set a thief to catch a thief.
The SEC was more effective under Kennedy than the current 'public spirited' regime.
"However, how we react to situations does not predict what those situations will be."
interesting thought. reading the AMNY today, they're already predicting the 70's -- graffiti subways, rampant crime, bankrupted city.
that's when i realized most people have such a low tolerance for fear. they see one more homeless person on the street, and then they're ready to pack their bags.
i say bye bye -- NYC's been quite boring these last 7 years...time to liven it up again.
and if everyone is already predicting the worst before it's even happening, it seems like it's going to turn out way way way different then everyone's expecting...
hah!
Fed Officials Saw Economy Shrinking Through Mid-2009 Last Month
Fed Saw Economy Shrinking Through Mid-2009 Last Month (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
"Crash" is such a subjective term.
Democrats seek to lower expectations for bailout
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
purty colors
emo
we know who the 6 biggest loser in america are.. see above
Wow.
emo?
Why no 1929 crash
I should read before I post!
Heh. Not even close.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
""BASF already drew attention to the difficult economic situation at the end of October," Chief Executive Juergen Hambrecht said in a statement. "Since then, customer demand in key markets has declined significantly. In particular, customers in the automotive industry have canceled orders at short notice.""
CR or Will--
Be sure to add the whole 3-yr crash for GD1.
380 to 40, close to 90% drop in 3 yrs.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/1929-stock-market-crash-dow-chart-image005.png
Why buy when you can rent until 2013?
Don't you think right about now Trader Hank is sitting in his 'heads on the wall' room and saying 'you congress guys don't have me to kick around anymore'?
No one can save you now!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Or am I just mad 'cause they took my bright red buttonphone and left all these empty suitcases lying around?
Thanks, CR. This sort of visualization really helps me get my head around the current, ah, situation...
Unfortunately there is a strong temptation to read more into the picture than may actually be there. I guess we'll know sometime in the future.
Did Will ever supply the recovery overlay for the historical crashes?
USD/JPY keeps making a run at 96.
Nikkei futures have a 7 handle (sorry, no link).
10-year and 30-year bonds do not seem to be showing much in the way of inflation expectations.
I love the double question marks.
I am fairly certain this graph will need to be updated periodically.
Ours goes to 11.
Better update the charts
DOwn goes Frazier
Down goes Frazier
What amazes me is the similarity in shapes. Three humps down and some noise at the bottom.
LMC, those are the death throes...
.
Whybuywhenucanrent? | 11.19.08 - 2:28 pm |
Are you the same wbwycr as on Vancouver BC area RE blogs?
.
Could you add 1929-1932 plez?
Where's that moron who posts a link to his blog every day with a REAL-TIME BOTTOM!!!!1!! call?
My day is not complete without it
And the S&P 500 is still about 25% from reaching the low valuations of 1983, 1932, etc.
Be sure to read Russell Napier's "Anatomy of the Bear."
So where do they go from there? Do the charts point up, level off, continue down?
Is it alright to pick at canker sores on ones lip?
Just a followup, Napier wrote the book in 2005 and predicted the bottom would come in 2009-2014, with the bull market still having two years to go.
This is an epic crash, and I'll add the Great Depression soon.
Even though we're down 45%+, I suspect we'll set a new low. The amount of debt it took to build up the stock market is the most we've seen so far.
yes
Speed writes:
So where do they go from there? Do the charts point up, level off, continue down?
Speed | 11.19.08 - 2:34 pm | #
"Three humps down and some noise at the bottom.".....sounds like the summation of my sex life
are these percentage declines in inflation-adjusted terms?
1870's might be the closest to our current situation.
OT, but I can't stop watching. The SEK is down 3% on the USD today.
The horror! Nascar layoffs
Scoreboard - San Jose Mercury News
markets open in 30min. Tomorrow jobless claims, LEI & the wild day ahead or OpEx.
Buckle up & Hang on.
FDIC needs to open new office inside Citi!
Faber (Nov) says S&P 700 at least or up to 900 willl confirm short term bottom
Could you also extend them out some time after their respective minimums to include the start of the recoveries?
The horror! Nascar layoffs
NASCAR brass better get ready for a lot of lawn donuts.
"Even though we're down 45%+, I suspect we'll set a new low. The amount of debt it took to build up the stock market is the most we've seen so far."
PeakVT
Is it? Do you know what the amount of effective debt is in relative terms?
Also, which debt do you count? Margin Debt? National Debt? Something in between?
Faber (Nov) says S&P 700 at least or up to 900 willl confirm short term bottom
Wow, nice fat 200 point range there.
(Of course, we could hit either point, today).
So yesterday's bounce at the close wasn't based on fundamentals? hocoodanode
How much for the hour?
INFLATION ADJUSTED TERMS
How much for the half-hour?
DEFLATION ADJUSTED TERMS
Bend over.
What would Abbey Joseph Cohen do?
Something to keep in mind...
" LowerMiddleClass writes:
What amazes me is the similarity in shapes. Three humps down and some noise at the bottom.
LowerMiddleClass | 11.19.08 - 2:31 pm | # "
I think that's human nature at work -- deny three times, then capitulate. Or, death throes, whatever works for you.
so if it took $4-5 of debt to increase GDP $1, how many dollars of deleveraging will it take to decrease GDP $1?
Bill Payer: NAB times? What does that mea
TBT is looking might tasty...but I think she'll fall quite a bit more.
rut ro
Goldman is sporting a 57 handle.
We're going to need a more targeted bailout.
Uhm this sucker is going down, fast.
Which way are the commercials positioned on SP going into options expiry, anyone have that?
We're going to need a more targeted bailout.
You mean a bailout of the bailout??
Watercooler talk at my office among line employees regarding Big 3 auto bailout is uniformly against a bailout...people cite failure of Detroit to build fuel efficient/reliable cars except under duress. I have a hunch outside of states where these automakers have large presences, the general sentiment is similar.
.
PPT, wherefore art thou PPT.
.
The jagged parts at the end are where they start playing the cowbells.
.
mo' cowbells
.
"PPT, wherefore art thou PPT."
they've been working the afternoon shift ... when the markets open at 3 ... and ususally sit on their hands til 3:30
GM and Chrystler are a joke outside US. F is present in lower class.
Why isn't there a marker for the U.S.A. bailout on the
live piracy map?
Cordially,
Килгор Траут
GM, Ford and Citi are all closing in on bankruptcy pricing.
Changing the Federal financing to yen-denominated bonds would, like everything else, be soothing in the short-term but just more trading of risk for immediate cash flow.
Real estate should start a new downturn soon and that's it.
We're done.
US,, meet fork.
Guess what? I've got a fever.. and the only prescription is.. more cowbell.
The compression of vertical is astonishing.
This calls for bourbon.
bearly, which market is that, that opens in 30 minutes?
.
I thought that 2:30 was the witching hour for the PPT
.
As epic as this crash is compared to others, the PPT has still let this market go down pretty fast...
Unless there isn't really a PPT.
Or how much faster it could have gone down w/o one...
bearly, which market is that, that opens in 30 minutes?
The stock market.
Maybe we could put all the CDS on a barge and float around the Gulf of Aden for a while.
Female neighbor (56) who rents 1/2 duplex drove over to show off new Nissan Infiniti M45 loaded. Bought w/inheritance funds. Nice. Better than duplex where she has lived since 1980 and could have paid for 3 Dallas condos...
Ha, I am shorting the only DOW stock to be green right now, and I am not even worried. Look out below!
Eric, which one?
NAB...
Not As Before
(I know, I know...when you hear "this time it's different, then...")
We've never had this kind of govt. and monetary intervention both in frequency and record quantity. EWe've never had this level of debt. Who knows where it goes? At lot of past-market conditioned dippers have had their bottoms ripped)
Dow hit its low yesterday at about 2:50
After being suckered yesterday, that the crash was here, I refuse to look at the ticker until close.
my observations tend to show post 330 activity
however, they are far less active than most tend to believe ... much action is spun by regular participants and program trades, psychology etc
but to deny the existence of PPT is ludicruos
The housing and stock market crashes are symptoms. The debt based perma-growth model is permanently impaired. Real growth cannot keep pace with the compounding required to pay the ever increasing interest charges.
Forcing money/debt into the system only makes the majority poorer.
We need to start a serious discussion about a sustainable economic model.
.
Turn the machines back on, turn the machines back on!!!!
.
Sounds plausible, Tyler.
You guys (and gals) make watching a market meltdown fun. Thanks for all of the (gallows) humor.
the us stock market, jg. it opens at 3 -- at least for me!
hank to ppt: we must make them believe
Sounds plausible, Tyler.
So when does the PPT roll their futures?
This just in:
guardian.co.uk - 1 hour ago
"Somali bandits terrorising the busy shipping routes around the Horn of Africa suffered a rare setback when an Indian warship destroyed a pirate "mothership" after coming under fire in the Gulf of Aden."
Finally, somebody shows some backbone...of course, firing on an actual warship as opposed to a target merchant vessel shows remarkable stupidity or arrogance by the pirates. Maybe they were minions of Jabba the Hutt?
clink clank clink clank...
Gallows Humor?
How about a Gallows Pole: Will the Dow hit 6000 or 12000 first?
We need to start a serious discussion about a sustainable economic model
I've been trying to seed the gestaltic mindset that way, if you hadn't noticed.
But most people won't be able to get their minds wrapped around it for another... oh, two or three years.
Sold SDS. Apologies to whoever had the other side of the trade.
AS:"How about a Gallows Pole: Will the Dow hit 6000 or 12000 first?"
Today? 6000 then 12000, close at 9500
Here comes the PPT cavalry to save teh day
Adding the Great Depression and the Japanese bear market will change your perspective a tad. Looking forward to your adding it.
so.. according to the chart we are almost done falling.. right?
We need to start a serious discussion about a sustainable economic model.
ready when u are...
so.. according to the chart we are almost done falling.. right?
Yup, hit bottom about 2:40pm.
Cue the spammers!
i/m/o the PPT left the building...for good.
not their problem no mo.
sitting around watching a chart on a computer screen while occasionally posting is sustainable, right?
No f-ing way. I don't believe in the PPT, but come ON!
Broward Horne:
First, watch the car crash. bang!
Then watch the fire truck and ambulance arrive. ooh, blood!
Then watch the highway crews come hose off the lanes and remove the wreckage. Sig alert for 2 hours, wait, wait, wait.
All clear on the road! Speed again!
The alternative to high speed roads, given our present mindset of technological solutions, is individual jet packs... It is NOT returning to lower velocity vehicles.
That is, until the power sources run dry.
TF ramped up 100 ticks in 10 minutes.
Sheesh, can't the PPT use a little subtlety?
"so.. according to the chart we are almost done falling.. right?"
If we follow the path of the Great Depression then we'll fall another 55% in the coming 12 months.
I'll say it again. I don't know how anybody can believe this housing/credit bust won't be significantly worse than a quaint dotCON bust.
sitting around watching a chart on a computer screen while occasionally posting is sustainable, right?
I get dizzy sometimes.
Speed,
come on!
Is it?
financial obligation ratio
Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)
rally into the holiday? ... there's a turkey waiting on the other side
No PPT. There is trong buy support at 8200 which has yet to be challenged with strong sell volume. This market behavior is completely textbook technical. We need to break 8200 hard on the dow and 830 on the S&P - and I mean hard. Otherwise, we have a bottom for now.
By the way, we could finish in the green today.
My sources at Treasury inform me that the ramp job is over.
PPT not giving up without a fight!
I would like to add that the DOW is a joke and there really is a PPT.
Come on!
How many consecutive 200-300 down days and then a sudden surge at the end to close with a 20-40 point loss/gain can we have without some sort of manipulation by some entity?
This is getting laughable now.
Do we really have free markets?
Oh well, I guess stagflation is in on the DOW. We'll just sit here at 8300-8400 for the next 5 years.
I can't wait to see how that goes over with the perpetual growth crowd.
We need to break 8200 hard on the dow and 830 on the S&P - and I mean hard. Otherwise, we have a bottom for now.
So, you're saying we have a bottom, unless we don't have a bottom?
Even while hinting that another rate reduction could be forthcoming, Fed officials worried that the effectiveness of previous rate cuts "may have been diminished by the financial dislocations, suggesting that further policy action might have limited efficacy in promoting a recovery in economic growth," the documents said.
To help ease financial turmoil and spur banks to lend money more freely again to customers, the Fed has taken a series of other unprecedented steps, including offering short-term cash loans and buying up mounds of short-term debt that companies rely on to pay day-to-day expenses like payrolls and supplies.
Under its new economic forecast, the Fed now believes gross domestic product could be flat or grow by just 0.3 percent this year. GDP could actually shrink or expand by 1.1 percent next year. Both sets of projections are lower than the Fed's forecasts delivered to Congress in July.
Can't they just turn those charts upside down?
Problem solved!
Kin I haz bailout muniez now?
I agree ano
13-WEEK TREASURY BILL (^IRX)
I can't watch it anymore!
.
We have a nice, pert, plum shaped bottom.
.
your TARP dollars being put to work...
I didn't notice - Did GS put themselves on the conviction SELL list ?
the PPT clearly exists (Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets)
however, that does not mean that every bounce is due to the PPT.
I'm honestly flabbergasted at why any of you are surprised about the late day bounces.
we ALL know that the markets tend to surge after 3pm ET. if you believe in the PPT, then you too know the market will surge at 3pm ET.
thus, why not just buy at 230pm? you get in just before the surge and then you make quick easy cash.
and millions of other people have the same idea. combine them with quant programs- they all amplify the surge.
thus: if you truly believe in the PPT you are a fool not to go long at 230pm on down days, because you know the PPT will try to intervene.
if you're not willing to do this, then you're really just a whiner who makes up fairies to explain why the market goes against you.
so quit whining about the PPT and use your knowledge to your advantage. and quit whining about them. sheesh.
comrade tinman writes:
We need to start a serious discussion about a sustainable economic model.
ready when u are...
comrade tinman | 11.19.08 - 2:53 pm | #
Let us start with the assumption that you cannot have infinite growth with finite resources.
Let us also start with the idea that unlimited debt is not such a good idea.
Thirdly, let us cut out entitlements.
You get three already: life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness.
Okay, universal health care. We need to determine what it will cost, how to pay for it, and who gets what.
Lastly, let's start decreasing, not increasing government, at all levels!
Anyone else want to chime in or add?
Citi is a remote village now...
Persecution, mobocracy, and bigotry in the 21st century...
6.98 print
OCDan --
How many consecutive 200-300 down days and then a sudden surge at the end to close with a 20-40 point loss/gain can we have without some sort of manipulation by some entity?
This is getting laughable now.
So how come you haven't gotten rich trading it? It should be trivial to buy at 3 on big down days and sell at 4.
If you try that and lose a lot of money, will you admit that there really isn't any pattern?
Gentlemen, looks like we're in for another run on the "bottom". I actually have a feeling me may blow through it this time.
"and then a sudden surge at the end to close with a 20-40 point loss/gain can we have without some sort of manipulation by some entity?"
Shorting that rally is the easiest money I've ever made. Hence the "market opens at 3" meme.
"We need to start a serious discussion about a sustainable economic model"
I wasn't on his bandwagon, so I'm not a Ron Paul groupee, but he tried to make just this point in his comments and questions to HP and BB yesterday. Paraphrase would be "Have you guys given any thought to Economoy 2.0, cause we can't fix all the bugs in 1.0"
YTL: if you're not willing to do this, then you're really just a whiner who makes up fairies to explain why the market goes against you.
so quit whining about the PPT and use your knowledge to your advantage. and quit whining about them. sheesh.
We're not worthy. We're not worthy.
Great post!
Same goes for the op-ex jammin crowd too... if it's that easy, just back up the truck and take the money.
Kona writes:
13-WEEK TREASURY BILL (^IRX)
I can't watch it anymore!
Kona | 11.19.08 - 2:59 pm
At 2:57PM ET: 0.06 Down 0.05 (45.45%)
Wow. Just wow. So people have so much money that they just want it to sit there? Why not leave it in a savings account or safe if you want no return--or pay for the right--on your money?
9.12% yield.
Hot Damn, gimme somma dem
Well looking at the chart for this post means the PPT pretty much sucks balls at keeping the market up. I.e. even if they exist they don't matter.
In order to have a conversation about a new sustainable economic model, I think you need an admission from a majority of the players that the old economic model is irreparably flawed. That's not going to happen until (unless) all of the bailout efforts fail.
My question is: Is capitalism, as practiced in the US, like democracy in that it is the worst economic model, except for all of the others?
I think many of the calls for a more socialistic form of economy/government ignore the cultural preferences of a majority of the American public (more stuff, less free time). Trying to socially engineer an economic model by cramming it down people's throats is unlikely to work. In other words, the cry for change has got to come from the masses.
By the way, I view the current "hope and change" platform to have about as much credence as the "market bottom" posts we see everyday.
Anybody else laugh out loud when they read: "Fed hints of rate cut"?
Cut away, dingleberries.
re:anon so what accounts for the weak sell side at 8200--fear of booking "real" losses, purely chartist reasons? just wondering if anyone has any pithy comments, not trying to figure out any trading strategy
Yearning, I am not whining. In fact, I am not in the market.
However, my problem is that this whole schbang is nothing more than a casino.
That is my whole problem with the markets. Everyone wants the quick easy dollar of fix.
WHAT WE NEED IS LONG TERM INVESTMENT IN A STABLE ECONOMY WITH SUSTAINABLE GROWTH!!!
What we need less of is Phil Helmuth telling me from the World Series of Poker how his methods translate into a viable economic system for everyone.
When will we have a bottom?
When a Toxic Security Distressed Debt ETF is opened so all the wise guys that know credit can offload their meaty trades to retail and go back in and buy the S&P 500 at S&P 500....
RING RING
Hey why is that phone working if it isn't plugged in?
Uh-oh...
Citi at 6.95 - the end is near!
This should warm the gold bugs.
Demand for gold at an all-time high - Telegraph
Nice to see so much gloom out here. I'm feeling more bullish as a result! Small caps getting whacked worst; Dow and SP500 not setting new lows yet... Wheat being separated from chaff by Mr. Market?
BTW, Another way of reading that graph is that there's a 2-in-3 chance that this is about as bad as this crash will get.
In other words, if you take the set of all major market drawdowns (market down at least 40%, say) and plot the distribution, only a minority get dreadfully worse than that. How likely is it that this new event will go to -80% or -90%?
(And remember, while things look grim now, they looked grim every other time too.)
This time it's NOT different.
Also, I note that both the 1973-4 and 2002 bottoms show the same "double dip" in their final throes that we are seeing now.
I didn't notice - Did GS put themselves on the conviction SELL list
Lol! Last I heard, GS was on the TARP conviction buy list.
Maybe we'd be better off with a TARP convict list.
Asking HP a question and expecting an honest answer at this point is akin to asking a three year old with chocolate on his face and hands who ate the brownies?
You already know the answer and know he's going to lie.
For cripes sake, he couldn't define what a "financial institution" is.
"This time it's NOT different."
Dude, you are on crack.
That's why Hank couldn't tell us who he "lent" that money to...Stigmas can be so unkind...
...."who makes up fairies to explain why".....
I DON'T MAKE UP MY FAIRIES...I DON"T, I DON'T, I DON'T...
Looks like the 3pm PPT pushed the wrong button.
Hope they can break those trades!
C is in liquidation meltdown.
Wisdom Seeker,
I cannot think of a more ironic thing I have read than your last post based on your name. Wow. I love it.
So how come you haven't gotten rich trading it? It should be trivial to buy at 3 on big down days and sell at 4.
If you try that and lose a lot of money, will you admit that there really isn't any pattern?
well done Nemo. you elucidated in 3 sentences what it took me 3 paragraphs to write!
the PPT crowd comes out every day looking for the bounce to blame on the PPT. when the bounce happens, they have a Maria Bartiromo orgasm of despair.
when it doesn't happen they gleefully talk about the PPT running out of bullets.
sheesh.
.
I just like saying PPT cause it's fun.
.
man oh man, just glancing over the financials, are they ever (rightfully so) been beaten with the ugly stick
I once again call upon VNBC ( 16 cents) to be my candidate for BFF
anon writes:
Gentlemen, looks like we're in for another run on the "bottom". I actually have a feeling me may blow through it this time.
anon | 11.19.08 - 3:02 pm
Are we there yet?
BH down another 10% today. So much for the Warren Effect.
"This should warm the gold bugs."
Peter Schiff S****
Actually, it's pretty tempting to put everything in physical and not look at the stock market again for six months.
CRVIX increasing.
thus: if you truly believe in the PPT you are a fool not to go long at 230pm on down days, because you know the PPT will try to intervene.
I just want to know when the PPT sells all this stuff it supposedly buys after 3:00PM.
"the PPT crowd comes out every day looking for the bounce to blame on the PPT. when the bounce happens, they have a Maria Bartiromo orgasm of despair.
when it doesn't happen they gleefully talk about the PPT running out of bullets.
sheesh."
yep, it gets old.
Look, I don't care if the PPT comes or not. Like I said, I am not in the market.
However, there is something holding this together. There is no sound reason why this market shouldn't be under 8K by nowm esp. on all the news we have had lately.
Whether it is the PPT or shorts or longs, I don't care.
Again, I have no dog in this race.
What I want to understand is what is holding this thing together?
We've poured 2Trillion into this rathole economy and nothing has shown signs of improvement and yet we can't bust 8K!
What is the deal?
AIG is acting as the Ghost Of XMAS futures:
AIG: Basic Chart for AMER INTL GROUP NEW - Yahoo! Finance
anon writes:
By the way, we could finish in the green today.
anon | 11.19.08 - 2:58 pm |
anon writes:
Gentlemen, looks like we're in for another run on the "bottom". I actually have a feeling me may blow through it this time.
anon | 11.19.08 - 3:02 pm |
anon stfu.
eric-
"same goes for the op-ex jammin crowd too"
So arrest me ....it didn't happen this month. We also have never seen a large bailout portion stated as being unused too.
I didn't bet huge sums of money on it and have not bitched about it at all.
Some times it works...sometimes it doesn't. Painting everyone with such a large brush..you should know better.
Ciao
MS
However, the fact that the Dow continues hang around major support indicates we could see a major test of 8,000 ahead - one that could spark a serious downside break.
SignalWatch LIVE!
"Again, I have no dog in this race.
What I want to understand is what is holding this thing together?
We've poured 2Trillion into this rathole economy and nothing has shown signs of improvement and yet we can't bust 8K!
What is the deal?"
We are at a major trend level right now. Couple that with very weak shorts and a lack of volume due to rules that change every two weeks and you have the makings of very easy reversals.
Different anon - sorry....
OCDan,
Look people, lots of people, have a vested interest in having the market go up. So anything that gives them a glimmer of hope is a reason for the market to bottom. Until hope is destroyed the market will not tank. People believe what they want to believe until they don't.
Well said, REL. A relevant link is this:
UCLA Anthropologist's Study of Urban Land Use by Middle Class People in Los Angeles
"L.A. Region's Garages and Backyards Suffering from Major Identity Crisis, UCLA Research Shows"
"Forget hot tubs beckoning sybaritic adults, garages brimming with impressive cars and families frolicking on verdant lawns. From their clutter-strewn garages to their mostly lovely but abandoned yards, busy Southern California parents who own their homes rarely use residential outdoor spaces for the purposes for which they were designed, said a UCLA anthropologist who participated an in-depth study of how the average dual-income family really lives in Los Angeles.
"Middle class families in Southern California don't live the way you
might expect," said Jeanne Arnold, an anthropologist with UCLA's Center for the Everyday Lives of Families and a UCLA professor of anthropology. "Most parents in dual-income families never spend leisure time in their yards, their children play outside much less than expected and most cars can't fit in garages because they're too full of clutter from the house." Five years ago, Arnold and a team of researchers set out to follow 32 families, all with young children, and with each parent holding a full-time job. For four full days, Arnold's team tracked these families at home, from the moment they rose to the moment they went to bed, scrupulously documenting the ways they used their homes, yards and time. In addition to videotaping family members at home during the four days, including weekends, the research team recorded the activities and whereabouts of each family member in the home at 10-minute intervals. They produced photos and floor plans of the houses and yards, and family members made self-narrated tours of their homes. The team accumulated so much information that just processing the records took more than a month per family. The first "material culture" analysis of these records will appear in the March 2007 issue of the Journal of Family and Economic Issues. Despite the fact that contemporary Americans now control the largest amount of private space per person in the history of urban civilization, the team documented what Arnold calls "a storage crisis" among the first 24 of 32 families studied. "From construction materials to excess furniture and toys, storage of material goods has become an overwhelming burden for most middle-class families," said Arnold."
Backs up your thesis...
Could not resist C today
(hangs head in shame)
Non different anon. Please pick more unique name.
Hmmm
Consumer prices plunged by the largest amount in the past 61 years in October as gasoline pump prices dropped by a record amount.
The Labor Department said Wednesday that consumer prices fell by 1 percent last month, the biggest one-month decline on records that go back to February 1947. The drop was twice as large as the 0.5 percent decline analysts expected.
throwing 2 trillion at a derivative market that is over 50 trillion. Piss in the bucket as they say.
OCDan:
my post was not directed specifically at you. my apologies if it seemed that way.
my problem is that this whole schbang is nothing more than a casino.
agreed. but that is not due (solely) to the PPT. it is due to the overall setup of our financial markets that rewards speculation and punishes saving and investment.
Just as the CDS market promised to add stability but then destabilized our economy, so too the Quant funds and traders are destabilizing our markets... compounded by governmental interference.
I too exited the market some time ago for the same reasons. (I posted on CR when I got all out... I think it was about 4-6 weeks ago)
there seems to be a certain level of complexity beyond which it becomes impossible for the human mind to comprehend. our financial markets are such.
Retail E-Commerce (Non-Travel) Growth Rates. Excludes Auctions, Autos and Large Corporate Purchases. Total U.S. Home/Work/University Locations
Source: comScore, Inc.
Month Y/Y Percent Change
Jun-07 25%
Jul-07 22%
Aug-07 28%
Sep-07 19%
Oct-07 19%
Nov-07 20%
Dec-07 18%
Jan-08 12%
Feb-08 14%
Mar-08 9%
Apr-08 15%
May-08 12%
Jun-08 11%
Jul-08 8%
Aug-08 6%
Sep-08 5%
Oct-08 1%
I don't get that drop in prices, because vodka still seems too high to me?
"Look people, lots of people, have a vested interest in having the market go up. So anything that gives them a glimmer of hope is a reason for the market to bottom"
The vast majority of the equity market has a long only mentality or mandidate
the crash is kind of an ongoing historical event. ppt while probably having some real aspects, is just sort of a joke to "fake" explain every jitter on the chart. Similarly "bat signals" etc is a satire of the chartists. we see how badly most people do, so I think that it is not a question of "backing the truck up to the market".
barley - jumping on C is like picking the street walker with the funny bulge. you know it's going to end in tears. aka - the crying game.
Did you guys catch the House hearings today with the auto makers.
There was one moment when a Congressman asked the CEO's "How come you guys flew to D.C in your private jets with your hat in hand? Can't you guys atleast Private-Jet-Pool for show sake?"
It was interesting.
The 1987 "crash" was nothing...just computer trading fluff.....the 73-74 crash was epic but they crashed off much cheaper levels for equities, especially since the days of maximum debt fueled GDP and earnings pumping chicanery were ahead of us at that point not behind us as they are now.
And the dot com crash was off absolutely insane levels but was only thwarted by the housing bubble rocket engine which we also don't have this time around.
This time we are crashing off of expensive levels (implying a lot of room to fall) and we have nothing ahead of us that I can see that would possibly pull us out of the swan dive we are in.
Japan....or the GD1 will give a better perspective for where we are at IMO.
@PeakVT: thanks for the links; most helpful. Looks like a reduction in debt-service burdens of a few % of income would be sufficient to bring economy back on-line.
@OCDan, Broward: I still offer my wiki and forum for your sustainable-economy project; see my homepage. (I realize Broward could probably put his own together any time he wanted to...)
People believe what they want to believe until they don't.
Ya just ask the 401k believers.
Barley,
You need to ask me first!! That was way to early man, you'll have to cost average now to be saved!
Yearning to Learn wrote " there seems to be a certain level of complexity beyond which it becomes impossible for the human mind to comprehend. our financial markets are such. " ----- This is the Black Swan theory, yes?
FFDIC writes:
What would Abbey Joseph Cohen do?
FFDIC | 11.19.08 - 2:39 pm | #
She's revising her S&P price target and estimates upwards, as all the economic news and the forthcoming depression are obviously bullish. Goldman Sachs analyst forecast -7% GDP in the forth quarter, which obviously means: New S&P target = 1550.
Yep, the US economy is like a supertanker...hard to slow down (unless it gets blown out of the water).
skent, I get that.
However, belief and the reality that xyz company is actually really worth anything are 2 different stories.
Now, if we want to debate that people invest in hope and/or getting casino-rich overnight, I'll buy that.
However, buying shares of GM to get rich quick doesn't seem like a smart move to move, unless you think they are going to survive/get gov't money, etc. and be the only 1 left in 20 years.
My mom finally broke down and got the courage to tell everyone in the family that she didn't want any "crap" for Christmas. No tchotchkes, votive candles, plastic doodads, panini makers, etc etc.
I myself have had a policy of refraining from buying bulky items (no matter how inexpensive) for years. The stuff is just so damn hard to store and get rid of.
Re: PPT
While I don't believe that there is a federal PPT, I do find it interesting that the SEC Rule 10b-18 safe-harbor provisions for share repurchases mandate that the purchases not occur within the last 30 minutes of trading.
the crying game.
dk
I liked that movie! My horizen is 5-7yrs so I'll let 'em sit.
You need to ask me first!! That was way to early man, you'll have to cost average now to be saved!
Kona
Probably true
Yes sir.
Sorry sir I didn't expect the phone to work. Yes I was gone for awhile.
Well sir the suitcases are all empty.
You want me shot?
Oh you mean short.. sorry sir I'm not use to the accent..
You really want me to short? Why..
Yes half a trillion is a large number..
Yes sir Will do..
Geez go sailing and they bring in new management...
What if the Fed had a fed funds rate reduction party, and nobody came?
MS writes:
So arrest me ....it didn't happen this month.
Don't lose faith yet... you've still got 2+ days. I've got limit orders in to buy calls down low in case we swoop down there.
We also have never seen a large bailout portion stated as being unused too.
As I've said before.... saying "it's op-ex" when it goes up and "it's externalities" when it goes down or sideways, doesn't lend a lot of credence to your theory.
C below 7.. wow!
Abbey is also locked in a room where she gives forecasts all day long and then is tranquilized by the night shift!
There was one moment when a Congressman asked the CEO's "How come you guys flew to D.C in your private jets with your hat in hand? Can't you guys at least Private-Jet-Pool for show sake?"
Thanks for posting that. I was really hoping someone would take them to task on the jets. That was a skillful skewering.
Whoa.....Only one more miracle left....the coming of the messiah. He is going to be here in January.
Texas grand jury indicts Cheney.
Texas grand jury indicts Cheney, Gonzales of crime
| Reuters
OCDan,
Well hope applies to individual stocks as well. There are lots of people who think GM will be bailed out and the company will be fine. There are lots of people who don't think they can lose more money and that they are buying for long term investment.
Also there are a lot of computers that calculate based on assumptions that buy stock regardless of what humans think.
All kinds of reasons for stocks to go up when in your eye it should not.
People have different realities.
Anti-PPT folks: your trading logic is impeccable. But, I am a sell and hold short. my portfolio is up 3.2X since I shorted the S&P 18 months.
I see a pattern that looks like deux ex machina at 3 p.m. Not every day, so not tradeable, for me.
Lots of bright folks said oil was up due to supply and demand factors. It sure seemed like speculation to me.
Same with these stick save attempts at 3 p.m.
Why is it called 'subprime mortgage crisis'? Although the subprime market made the initial appearance, I thought I saw a post here showing that people using their house as ATM played a larger role in starting this crisis. Have my memory failed me?
Calling a bottom right now is like being on a runaway train that is racing towards a collapsed bridge, you see the hero of the story riding his horse furiously towards the train, preparing to make that heroic leap on the engine, and you just know everything is going to be ok, because after all these stories always end with the hero winning.
But this isn't a movie, or a fictional story. The changes happening right now aren't going to work themselves out in the next half hour. It will be well into next year before we see how bad this is, and a year or so after that before we can look back and really see if the hero was able to stop the train.
So calling bottom now makes you sort of out of touch with reality, or a CNBC host.
@squeezed and @skent - I'm just trying to inject a contrarian perspective. I know perfectly well it could get much worse - over the next couple of years - but the historical odds are clearly against that. And it would be unprecedented if the market got a lot worse from here without getting an intermediate bounce somewhere.
I'm liking that drop in Goldman from $234 to $58 in a year! That would be a place to go, after they cut the dividend next year IMHO.
Why is it called 'subprime mortgage crisis'? Although the subprime market made the initial appearance, I thought I saw a post here showing that people using their house as ATM played a larger role in starting this crisis. Have my memory failed me?
Ya its all housing causing this problem....bot the 55 trillion dollars in derivatives...
CR says "This is an epic crash, and I'll add the Great Depression soon."
oh, I can't wait
ugh
"As I've said before.... saying "it's op-ex" when it goes up and "it's externalities" when it goes down or sideways, doesn't lend a lot of credence to your theory.
Not at all what I've said....you are correct that's what you said...key point that.
but I'll take the averages over the last 12 months (and yes that does include the week before-as the first response clearly stated) over a half hearted attempt to discredit "my theory" by not looking at all the data and more importantly the results.
Results speak for themselves.
Ciao
MS
My question is: Is capitalism, as practiced in the US, like democracy in that it is the worst economic model, except for all of the others?
It was never alive. Like Adam Smith's "invisible hand", it relied upon pervasive background conditions which it never acknowledged.
This is an epic crash, and I'll add the Great Depression soon.
CR, you've already put 2008 on there.
So calling bottom now makes you sort of out of touch with reality, or a CNBC host.
lurker
or they're selling something...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
"ignore the cultural preferences of a majority of the American public (more stuff, less free time).... the cry for change has got to come from the masses."
methinks this cry is already being made w/o the criers even realizing it...like a self-destructive mechanism.
and yes, top-down fixes are not going to do are a darn thing but lead to calls for violent revolution.
the top is in a catch-22 visegrip.
why not instead concentrate on local solutions? like how to increase the topsoil level on the land across the way (compost) or how to power a gasoline generator on burning garbage (gassification)?
C at 6.66
This fight at DOW 8200 is like the battle of Stalinbgrad.
Neil, 2008 is not the Great Depression, it will be the "the Greatest Depression"...
Wisdom,
Point taken but there are no odds that are accurate based on history. I really don't think there is a precedent because the world is different in complex ways. By definition it is always different this time. History never repeats and never will. People say that so they can quickly understand and categorize complex events but it is a logical fallacy.
So arrest me ....it didn't happen this month. We also have never seen a large bailout portion stated as being unused too.
That's not blaming externalities?
skent, this is what make it troubling to invest. The government should stay out of the autos. Second, we nned more transparency. I know it is currently cliche, but how can I invest when the CEO can't even answer questions straight up? Man, I would like to see GM's books. I know it will never happen, but this is what happens when things run amok.
You want my investment money, you need to show me some things.
Sometimes blind faith is not a good way to invest.
.
ruh roh
.
Just looking over the big financials there appear to be only two scenarios going foward- either they go bust and the equity is completely wiped out, or they thrust upward and shake out the shorts in one huge squeeze. I have never seen these stocks (GS, BAC, C, MS etc) in such an oversold condition- the measures are historic at this point.
The PPT must have run out of ammo:-)
Mikhailovich :"This fight at DOW 8200 is like the battle of Stalinbgrad."
Is the long side the germans or the russians, I need to know how to rade it
the cry for change has got to come from the masses
The masses are probably going to just step back and melt into survival mode. Which is what happened to Rome and to the Mayan civilization. There wasn't any revolution that overthrew Rome. The peasantry just stopped cooperating, stopped trying to help.
"And it would be unprecedented"
Things that should not be happening are happening and you worry about precedents. LOL!
Does anyone else think it unlikely for the S&P lows to be broken and the DOW lows to hold?
OCDan:
I agree with others.
the problem that you are having is that you are looking at the problem with your level of knowledge. now strip 95% of that away.
People are not as plugged in as you might think to the issues at hand. even those that have some understanding of the problem still tend to want to go long.
even my better half decided to start dollar cost averaging when the S&P hit 35% down since "how much further can it go"
People buy the indexes through mutual funds... thus the mutual fund must buy the individual companies in teh index, no matter how bad those companies may be.
remember, half of all people have an IQ below 100.
of those that are above 100, most aren't interested in finance.
PPT needs another more viagra!
Mr. Market,
Meet Mr. Anvil.
I still can't believe that all 3 of them actually showed up after traveling on separate private jets. And then begged for government money. Don't they even PR type handlers at the executive level that would recommend to them to fly coach?
Oh wait, you mean, they just surround themselves with advisors that just tell them what they want to hear?
So I guess the "pre-after-market" opens in about 7 minutes from now, eh?
Eric-
"also".....may be try seeing things for what they are instead of what you want them to be.
Externalities or not....it didn't happen. That's all there is
Get over yourself.....it's not a big deal unless you want to make it one.
Ciao
MS
Fed Sharply Lowers Forecasts, Signals Another Rate Cut Coming-
Are they going negative yet?
Interesting, Haloscan's clock is about 5 minutes off.
It's our turn to be Chile, Brazil and Argentina. Where's our Pinochet? I always wanted to be dropped from a helicopter into the ocean after having my stomach cut open.
Disclosure Demands for Credit Swaps Said to Increase
Disclosure Demands for Credit Swaps Said to Increase (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
U.S. regulators may require banks and insurers to disclose data about all credit-default swap trades to a central registry to boost transparency in the $47 trillion market, a person with knowledge of the talks said.
Dealers and investors in the credit-default swaps market began recording most trades two years ago in a registry run by DTCC, the New York-based company that settled more than $1.86 quadrillion of transactions in stocks and bonds last year. The so-called Trade Information Warehouse gave the market its first central system for settling contracts after defaults and processing payments.
DTCC, which is owned by some of the largest dealers and investors, also started making some of the data public this month after pressure from regulators. The warehouse only captures trades processed electronically. DTCC said last week it recorded a total of about $32.7 trillion contracts.
ISDA conducts a broader survey of its members and estimated there are more than $47 trillion in contracts outstanding.
Yearning, I see your point now. I guess we could parallel that with the housing bust. People buying now or priced out forever, or catching the falling knife.
Even if we have the knowledge the masses still make their dopey buys and sells.
Argh! She's taking on water but still holding steady captain! Dont think we can take much more though!
PPT needs dapoxetine hydrochloride.
"I still can't believe that all 3 of them actually showed up after traveling on separate private jets. And then begged for government money. Don't they even PR type handlers at the executive level that would recommend to them to fly coach?
Oh wait, you mean, they just surround themselves with advisors that just tell them what they want to hear?"
Where the hell are they going to find the space to spread out all those paper ven diagrams, org charts, documents on "Synergizing going forward" on a plain vanilla 747?
This might get ugly.
99 TLT target achieved.
Currently on KCRW.com, Reshaping the Pentagon for a Dangerous New World
Defense spending covers a vast swath of government largesse. This is a live show.
"Even if we have the knowledge the masses still make their dopey buys and sells."
What masses? Something near half of all the action in the market is institutional.
the_economist writes:
The PPT must have run out of ammo:-)
the_economist | 11.19.08 - 3:24 pm | #
- Out of Viagra -
skent writes:
Also there are a lot of computers that calculate based on assumptions that buy stock regardless of what humans think.
skent | 11.19.08 - 3:18 pm
I think mp called it "playing beta" in the last thread. I can understand using such technical analysis to make things work, but as other people have written here, it really isn't a market as much as a gambling parlor now.
And I believe the "PPT" to this group is like the Flying Spaghetti Monster is to Atheists. Just a simple word to describe a whole lot of questions...
You just knew the SEC was a worthless institution from the get go when Joseph Kennedy, the mobbed up bootlegger, was put in charge of it. Foxes guarding the hen house. Has it ever been any different?
-500?
Historical stock market recession/depression data charts mean nothing today. This is the epic historical drop left for the next several generations to ponder. Party at Beanie's 2-nite!
@skent "I really don't think there is a precedent because the world is different in complex ways. By definition it is always different this time."
There's a rubbing spot, then. I think human nature hasn't changed, and neither have the fundamentals of human interactions (which give rise to economics), so that the world today isn't nearly as different as we think it is.
Uh oh, Captain!!! more water over the bow! We're bailing as fast as we can!
Looks like a reduction in debt-service burdens of a few % of income would be sufficient to bring economy back on-line.
And to do that trillions of dollars of debt will have to be wiped. Trillions more, I should say.
Get over yourself.....it's not a big deal unless you want to make it one.
I'm honestly trying to understand what fundamental thing could be occuring in a market to cause a rise during op-ex.
I've never heard an explanation I understand.... just "well, you don't want to transfer money to the the deep-in-the-money put owners".
Those people already cashed out, if they really want their money, and don't want to let it ride.
And all the big market-makers are hedged, so for a short deep in the money put near expiry, they're 100% short the stock. Jamming the market doesn't help them.
Bernanke doing all he can to destroy confidence, so I wonder if that is grounds for treason -- probably so, if he works for China:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank won't disclose details of the $2 trillion in emergency loans of taxpayer funds because doing so would stigmatize banks needing the money.
Some have asked us to reveal the names of the banks that are borrowing, how much they are borrowing, what collateral they are posting,'' Bernanke said today to the House Financial Services Committee.We think that's counterproductive.'
Take plastic of popcorn bag...
Set microwave 2:20...
wait...
open bag, caution hot steam...
enjoy... the last half hour stock market
The SEK is down almost 4% in one day - 8.16SEK.
bh: It was never alive. Like Adam Smith's "invisible hand", it relied upon pervasive background conditions which it never acknowledged.
like blaming this on the failure of 'keynesian' thinking...there was never an adaptation of true keynesian thinking. if there was, there would be no global trade imbalances.
idealism/ideology is never practiced in its purest form...the meme is just bastardized to suit those in power and subdue the masses.
all surface, no substance.
open bag, caution hot steam...
IT WAS YOU.... YOU LET THE AIR OUT OF THE MARKET!!!!
8200 has fallen
ppt has a big failure
watch out below.
maybe they can hold at 7000
Squeezed, I was referring to all the people with 401K and mutual funds. The ones who are plugged in, but not plugged in, so to speak. I realize that they go through investment banks and the like, but that was what I meant.
I def. agree with you as I keep wondering who buys, since I know of no one who tells me they have bought 20 shares or whatever of GM or Ford or Coke for a long term investment.
We think that's counterproductive.''
Who the fuck does he think he is?
Does he fail to see that the banks are failing and that his attitude increases distrust and by offering less disclosure, he groups them all together in collusion, where they are all guilty and will fail as one -- Bernanke needs removed from office tonight!
"IT WAS YOU.... YOU LET THE AIR OUT OF THE MARKET!!!!"
WHO LET THE AIR OUT! WHOOO, WHOOO, WHO LET THE AIR OUT!
The SEK is down almost 4% in one day - 8.16SEK.
Any reason in particular for the SEK collapse?
Eric-
It's not about the current month...never has been. I should have clarified that to begon with...my bad for not. I've never let anything get close to expiration..unless it was so DITM always execute way before you loose time value.
You can be assured that others do the same.
Ciao
MS
yagij,
Dawkins reader?
"8200 has fallen
ppt has a big failure"
Not saying it won't tip over, but I'm watching the S&P and all I see is strong technical resistance (all afternoon) in the 820-30 line
Captain! I think we may have to abandon ship!
everyone's on the elevator... going down!
BAC 13, C 6.50
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) Yields on speculative-grade corporate bonds surpassed 20 percent for the first time in at least two decades as a declining economy increased the risk of default.
Prices are in a virtual freefall, Fridson said. Either the market is right and expecting a default rate considerably higher than it was in the Great Depression, or we
have such profound dislocations and selling pressures going on that it really is creating extraordinary fundamental value.
The risk premiums are just at a staggering level; the number is not something any of us expected to see, he said, referring to the 20 percent yields.
How are dim, dere apples?
Junk bonds are saying "Worse than GD" or "Best Buy of the Last 80 Years". Who wants skin in on this game?
Ahem... Is it OK if I stop by ?
AngrySaver "The housing and stock market crashes are symptoms."
Angry man, you da man! Not too many brothers understand credit, interest, compounding, and "ball and chain" concept. Always appreciate your wise insight. Clearly, you also ascribe to the Austrian model too. Unfortunately, nobody but Ron Paul and a few of us do too.
It's hard to see the 100 year cliff until you're going over it.
Steady As She Sinks.
Wisdom,
Human nature is one thing but is not a variable that is predictable nor understood. To be honest I am not even sure people know what human nature is. I think it is a word to describe something we do not understand. However, how we react to situations does not predict what those situations will be. In addition if human actions were predictable....well I think we can agree they are not.
capitulation-
I think you were at C today....look at that volume.
Ciao
MS
S&P 820 = Bottom until I say otherwise
Yah, look at the volume on falling price, not good!
@squeezed - there are plenty of precedents, including Sweden, Japan, GD1, and others. The market never goes straight down 90%.
But I don't need to convince you, I just need to buy more of the shares you're shorting.
Every time the market falls below its previous low, I buy a little more. (Price-based dollar-cost averaging.) My only regret is that my capital allocated to this strategy is strictly limited so that I can sleep at night despite the short-term losses. 
Ahem... Is it OK if I stop by ?
Sure, no problem, stick around for a while, make yourself comfortable...
The credit love-in is not ending well.
according to google the low so far today is 8111, about the same as yesterday
Make credit not debt
Volume Leaders
- Yahoo! Finance
s&p just broke 820
total capitulation coming
Where's the next bubble? Will there be a next bubble? Are bubbles inevitable?
DJ 8106? Going below 8 handle?
Otherwise.
Wisdom,
Why would it never go down 90%? Are you saying that is not a possibility? Try to explain why the stock market system cannot crash totally and I will show you many holes.
Another factor that's common to most bubbles and crashes is that 50% of the total move happens in the last 10% of the time-frame, which leans towards this move being close to over. At this point, the recession seems to be shaping up to be something between 1980-82 and 1991 in severity, which would also lean towards closing in on a bottom for this move. I've spent years researching these sorts of moves, and it's difficult to be bearish here unless you believe a major depression or return to double digit inflation is coming. Recommended portfolio: overweight equities, but also overweight gold, shotguns and canned goods just in case...
Where's the next bubble? Will there be a next bubble? Are bubbles inevitable?
Ultrashorts?
If 818 stays taken out on a closing basis, things could get quite difficult.
Comrade Wisdom Seeker writes:
@squeezed - there are plenty of precedents, including Sweden, Japan, GD1, and others. The market never goes straight down 90%.
But I don't need to convince you, I just need to buy more of the shares you're shorting.
Every time the market falls below its previous low, I buy a little more. (Price-based dollar-cost averaging.) My only regret is that my capital allocated to this strategy is strictly limited so that I can sleep at night despite the short-term losses. 
The best part of this strategy is your limited capital.
Morocoo Bama: I think the next bubble will be the 'green' bubble...green energy / infrastructure
enjoy... the last half hour stock market
virtualco
Oh yes... But I prefer stove cooked. But since I'm at work... I'll break down.
Oh, I have to agree with the posters above. The PPT seem to have pushed the wrong button.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Next bubble: Renewable energy.
SEK down has something to do with this? "Sweden's government is to meet with representatives of the country's major banks on Thursday in a bid to understand the banks' refusal to join a state-sponsored lending guarantee scheme."
Down, doobee do, down down...
Gonna take you down, doobee do...
There wasn't any revolution that overthrew Rome
No so. Rome was sacked three times by Alaric and his army after Rome failed to honor agreements.
BTW, Alaric and his army were originally conscripted into the Roman legions. Talk about a reversal of fortune.
Beware when the hunter becomes the hunted.
If i were strictly a gambling man I'd say that 820 will be held into the final close....if not the "adjustment" it always seems to get at key levels.
Ciao
MS
You just knew the SEC was a worthless institution from the get go when Joseph Kennedy, the mobbed up bootlegger, was put in charge of it. Foxes guarding the hen house. Has it ever been any different?
You sure about that?
Set a thief to catch a thief.
The SEC was more effective under Kennedy than the current 'public spirited' regime.
Hmmm....
Yahoo finance just rescaled the DOW graph for our closing watch pleasure.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
We can still make it green - there's plenty of time left in the day.
I can handle a seven handle.
"However, how we react to situations does not predict what those situations will be."
interesting thought. reading the AMNY today, they're already predicting the 70's -- graffiti subways, rampant crime, bankrupted city.
that's when i realized most people have such a low tolerance for fear. they see one more homeless person on the street, and then they're ready to pack their bags.
i say bye bye -- NYC's been quite boring these last 7 years...time to liven it up again.
and if everyone is already predicting the worst before it's even happening, it seems like it's going to turn out way way way different then everyone's expecting...
C break 300m in volume? I say yes..
Hate to holding that long.
Ciao
MS
The next bubble? World War III.